Ladies Night -- Game Over

[Fenchurch]

Crikey I'm late. Access is more limited here than I expected, sorry.

/confirm

Reading the full thread now.

[Fenchurch]

I'm in the same boat as Ojanen and camn, I'm on a busy holiday and I am only able to read the game and post with painstaking slowness from a borrowed iphone. Two boats.

My gut reaction is that I support the Apok wagon most, but I want to make notes/read/think more thoroughly still. I will be back on Saturday.

[Fenchurch]

I'm on my third readthrough and I'm not done yet, but I think I'd better post

something

anyway because I'll probably run out of time before I need to go to bed, and I have catching up to do with posting. This is my first 15P game and it's a lot of people to get keep track of.

Paws

At first I agreed with Haylen that she comes off as newbie/null-tell. I don't know about her sites in particular, but I've seen mafia games on other forums where a player can live to day 5/page 40 having only made

three

posts, and nobody even notices, so her surprise at being criticised now is believable to me. And the "wow everyone posts loads here lol" comment really isn't unusual from newbies to this site.

But then her responses to meta-requests gave me a bit of a twinge:
"You won't be able to find any games like that", or, "you won't be able to view it because it's locked".
And her replacing out when under pressure isn't great.

But I'm not convinced it's enough to justify the wagon on her.

And... I'm out of time for now.

VOTE: Apokalyptika

I still think Apok is the most scummy so far, for a bunch of reasons... mainly gut.

And that's the only two strong thoughts I have right now, but everyone else: I will be coming to you.

[Fenchurch]

Unvotes are required before changing one's vote. This was stated clearly in the rules and will continue to apply throughout this game to minimize any possibility of vote-technical trickery.

Probably not the place to discuss this, but it seems to me that being strict about unvotes actually makes vote-trickery easier. I wouldn't have noticed at the time that esurio's vote was invalid if you hadn't pointed it out. If you just always allow a new vote to over-ride an old one, then players have less checking to do in determining whether a vote is valid or not.

Another thing I'd appreciate is the number of votes listed next to the players name, eg:

Paws (6) (Sotty7 - camn - UncertainKitten - Apokalyptika - Haylen - DrippingGoofball - camn)

But I can live without it.

---

Okay back to the game. I've been doing iso-reads today. I still feel like I've come late to the party, and everything I notice has already been said by someone else. I made notes as I was going, but they're sparse and unoriginal so I'm gonna post in a spoiler to reduce clutter.

Spoiler: Fen's scrappy iso notes

Apok

8 posts
scummy
iso 1: overexplaining/bad justification
iso 3: scummy vibe

camn

21 posts
mostly town
iso 1: preview vote switch
solid defence against her bandwagon
wants quicklynch on paws??

cepi

3 posts
mostly town

chauchau

11 posts
town
iso 4: lost at people jumping to scum-pairs
iso 9: solid questioning at paws

DGB

20 posts
no read
deems sotty scum, hoopla/haylen town, apok scummy, haylen maybe scum, camn town, paws scum, me town

Fenchurch

3 posts

Haylen

30 posts
no read
back and forth on Paws

Hoopla

29 posts
no read/leaning town
iso 26: in-depth guessing the mod,

Ojanen

3 posts
nothing, currently v/la

Paws

13 posts
newbie/somewhat scummy
names camn, scotty [sic], haylen as scum
refuses to post content despite being told why
self-votes after asking to be replaced

Snow_Bunny

15 posts
scummy
iso 1: claims lurker
iso 14: hanging on to weak case on camn, apparently not based on scumtells

Sotty

14 posts
no read/leaning town
iso 11: good comments and observations
criticises wagon on camn

Sucrose

11 posts
scummy
iso 1+2: complaining about lack of content
weak case on UK

UncertainKitten

25 posts
no read/slightly scummy
switch onto the Paws wagon seems disingenuous

I've come round to the case against Paws. On multiple occasions people gave examples for the kind of content she should provide, and explanations why, and it does seem likely that she refused because it is takes work to pretend to scumhunt when you are scum, especially when new.

I am hugely pro Hoopla's out-guessing the mod, although I'm not so sure what to think in light of RC's response...

[Fenchurch]

Fen, it looks like you... completely ignored me, even down to ignoring that DGB posted a town read on me. :<

Huh, I think I skipped you, woops.

esurio

18 posts
no read/leaning town
backs down a couple of times
mostly strong content and reasoning

Ojanen

town
insightful observations, seems v genuine
incredible catch on daytalk

I'm down with a lynch instead of replacement, although partly because it seems unfair if the replacer gets lynched following the claim and loses their chance to properly participate in the game. Surely Paws would have claimed already if she was a PR, rather than self-voting? Although I'm not familiar with conventions on other sites for this, so maybe not.

[Fenchurch]

I thought so too. Two of them haven't gotten back with me, one has declined, and another said she wouldn't be ready until the 25th. I've been hesitating with a more active search in order to give those who offered to replace preferential treatment, but I think I'm just going to start looking.

UNVOTE: Apok

VOTE: Paws

Problem solved.

[Fenchurch]

And now begins the gut-wrenching agony of waiting for the flip.

[Fenchurch]

The scum is here, in the pool of non-voters

You don't (often) get a majority on town D1 without at least one scum. I guarantee there is one scum there, likely a goon, because as you said it was a bad wagon to be on.

Admittedly, 2/6 is a lot better than 1/7. I'm content to look off wagon for now.

In regard to mafia being on/off the wagon on a mislynch... I'm pretty sure someone analysed newbie games a while back, and found that scum were on/off in the same ratio as townies were. Might not apply here but I think the point is that it's worth looking at every person's play, rather than limiting the net to just one side of the wagon.

That said, vote chart for reference and analysis is here

In defence of my hammer vote, maybe it was foolish, but I thought there was a good chance Paws was scum, especially after her self-vote, and I knew I would find it much more painful to lynch after she was replaced, so I decided to go with it based on the merits of what Paws had already provided.

And

thanks Red

for the adjustment to vote counts.

Absolutely. The vote counts are for the players' benefit, so I don't mind changing it. Hoopla + you weren't the only two people to complain about them in either case.

[Fenchurch]

Has anyone else followed up on Ojanen's point about coaching-speculation? As far as I can see...

In 157 esuriospiritus suggests that Sotty might have been coaching Paws.

In 184 Apok comments that esurio may have a good point with this.

In 187 Sotty says that she was coaching in a way, in that she was trying to teach a new player.

In 229 esurio repeats her suspicions of Sotty coaching Paws.

And finally, in 283, Haylen implies that she is STILL unaware that mafia have daytalk. Given that this comes AFTER Ojanen has pointed out that they do, either Haylen hasn't been reading the game properly, or she's attempting to drop a deliberate (and now invalid) town-tell... I don't know what to make of that.

[Fenchurch]

No. I'm telling you. That I didn't know scum could day talk. From the start. I didn't read the roles and I don't read the open Role PM's mods put up. It's not scummy. It's scummy that you're suggesting something that is WIFOM is scummy. Tl;Dr: You're scummy for doing that.

Haylen, I can believe that you might not have read the role PMs at the start of the game, I expect quite a few of us didn't, but Ojanen pointed out that scum have daytalk in post 257 and that it could be used to identify townies, and in the posts after that four users congratulate her for picking up on it. Did you fail to read this whole section?

[Fenchurch]

'WIFOM' is a meaningless/weak defence imo, not sure how it applies here. I don't like you refusal to talk about it Haylen, this makes it seem more like you're lying.

How much of that page did you fail to read, just posts 257 through to 262, or more besides? When I referred to Ojanen's coaching point again in post 285, did you notice, or did you just ignore it? Do you ever go back and re-read?

[Fenchurch]

Hmm...I think I want a votecount on this page to check a trend. If it exists I think I'll be brought around to the Snow_Bunny wagon.

Not official, but I think this is correct for D2 to date:

Spoiler: votechart

Fenchurch - why aren't you voting? Do you have any leading suspects so far?

I don't feel strong enough in so many of my reads that I want to push a particular wagon. I guess I'm most sure about Haylen, based on her mason comment (DGBs description of 'forced' is just right) and her reluctance to talk about it/provide a clear explanation for why she didn't read the game.

VOTE: Haylen

Snow_Bunny and Apok seem to be the leading candidates besides, and I feel pretty neutral about both of them at the moment.

I do feel a bit gitchy on DGB, and UK. Maybe Sotty. Null on Sucrose.

Hoopla, camn, chauchau, cepi, Ojanen all coming off as town.

I think I still need to do a lot of backreading to get a stronger grip on the game still, and the cases that have been presented.

[Fenchurch]

Hmm...that was both more enlightening and more frustrating than I could ever have hoped for. But, it was helpful, thank you Fenchurch. Assuming that's correct...well, the trend isn't as strong as I thought. But, I think I'll take a chance here

Care to share what it is you were looking for?

[Fenchurch]

Fenchurch, your vote chart is really handy. Would you happen to have one for D1?

Yeah, I posted a weblink earlier, but I now think pictures are better.

Spoiler: Day 1 votechart

Haylen posts similarly to this . . . also in another ongoing a the same minute as here exactly after the string of me catching the daytalk, and her previous post was just a couple of hours before I posted that, and site search seems to point at her being genuinely quite occupied that day and the next. It's totally plausible she didn't read the posts about scum daytalk. The Fenchurch one today is not explained by that, and the mason thing is weird but weird is as far as it goes.

Noted. For me the bit that made it scummy was her insistence on calling it WIFOM, and attempts to close the lid on discussion, which made it seem more like she was lying.

[Fenchurch]

Looking back through D1 I just found this:

On another note, that little interaction between UncertainKitten and Snow_Bunny was...hm, can't say interesting...how about unusual? I don't think this is a scumtell per se, but it almost seemed as if UK were leading Snow. Not FoS-worthy, but I'll keep an eye on it.

Does this come across as a town-tell based on the daytalk spec? I didn't pick it up first time around because I just searched on the word "coaching", which she doesn't use, and it depends on whether she's speculating on UK and Snow_Bunny as scum together, or UK-scum trying to sway Snow_Bunny-town.

[Fenchurch]

Okay, I agree with DGB/Hoopla/Ojanen. I don't think the case on Haylen is as strong as I thought, and the other two are good choices.

UNVOTE:

I can't decide between Apok and Snow_Bunny though, having done ISOs on both.

The fact that esurio was NK'd implies that she was along the right track in some way, which implicates chau to some degree.

Apok, there are many other potential reasons for a night-kill. What makes you think this is the most likely explanation for esurio's?

Snow, I'm not a huge fan of, and her tunneling on camn isn't great, but I still feel my Haylen vote is the place to be.

Do you think Snow_Bunny's tunnelling is a scumtell? Towntell? Neither?

[Fenchurch]

Snow_Bunny, I don't think you've posted a list of reads at all, and you've sat on your camn vote throughout the whole game. You've said you aren't taken by the cases on Apok or Haylen, and criticise them for being based mainly on vibes ("reads scummy"), but as far as I can see, your camn-vote is based largely on vibes. How confident are you about camn? Do you have an opinion on anyone else in the game?

[Fenchurch]

Apok, there are many other potential reasons for a night-kill. What makes you think this is the most likely explanation for esurio's?

Very strange question, considering I never said that it was the most likely explanation; if you look later in the very same post, I said that I didn't find chau scummy, and that it wasn't a statement of suspicion so much as throwing thoughts out there.

Okay, so the full quote is:

So looking at esurio's suspicions, the people she was on the whole day were myself, Sotty, and chau. In her Paws-related iso post, she said that either Sotty or I might be Paws' scumbuddy. However, she also said that if Paws flipped scum, chau looked more town to her, and that that was the best thing that she had to say about her. The fact that

esurio was NK'd implies that she was along the right track in some way

, which implicates chau to some degree. I don't see her as scummy, though, so I'm not sure how much validity there is; just putting it out there.

You give a few sentences of discussing esurio's suspicions, and the bolded part is what I was focussing on, which to me suggested you thought this was the most likely reason for the night-kill. Is this not the case?

[Fenchurch]

Please, Snow_Bunny, play THIS game, not the bullshit one you've made up in your silly, insignificant, absolutely miniscule mind, that I am amazed has enough intelligence to breathe, if you post SHIT like that.

Wow, this is way over the line. No one expects you to agree with cases raised against you, but if you're that angry then take a while to cool off rather than rage-posting with ad hom attacks.

Snow_Bunny, I hope you don't get put off, I thought your points were fair, no weaker than most others at this stage in the game.

I'm currently waiting to hear from Apok in response to cepi's and my post.

[Fenchurch]

Null---UK---Snow_Bunny-----------------------------Haylen-----Scum

Is this your top suspects, or just comments on the recent cases? Is there anyone besides Haylen that you do think is scum?

I'm torn. On the one hand, this doesn't look good for Snow_Bunny.

Apok... Although I haven't read still all the way back to when her wagon starts to build (and thus, I'm still not sure of her case), I have seen the last post in this page, and I must say that they really make her look bad. The things about jumping on the other wagons to save her skin doesn't look good. There's something I don't like about Hoopla, maybe that last post when she suggested SW to jump to any wagon.

So, my scumlist would go as follow right now:
camn
Apok
And UK.

I'd say there's slight exaggeration in the accusation of wagon hopping, an (irrelevant?) dig at Hoopla, and then Apok pops up on her scumlist for the first time.

But on the other hand, when I iso'd Snow_Bunny the other day, I found her to read mostly townie.

And Apok's recent post is full of non-commital... she doesn't want to see SB lynched, but doesn't mind too much if she is. She thinks UK's reaction is non-town, but doesn't want to instigate a wagon on her.

Also, my feeling on the esurio-NK-speculation is that Apok was scum letting on that she knew more about the kill motivation than she should know. I don't find the backtracking now to be believable.

I think Apok's is the stronger case.

VOTE: Apok

Unvote first, please.

And that puts her at L-1. If anyone is thinking of casting the hammer, I'd like to hear from Haylen and Snow_White first, and get a claim from Apok (but that only if the hammer is imminent).

[Fenchurch]

VOTE: Apok

Unvote first, please.

I already did unvote - post 424.

So, Fenchurch, unless I'm misunderstanding you, you think that as scum I would say in this thread why the NK was performed, when there was no need whatsoever to even bring it up? Really?

Yes. You didn't need to bring it up, but you do need to look like you're scumhunting, so you have to talk about something. And you didn't say explicitly that you *knew* it was the reason, you just didn't seem to consider the alternatives. People make mistakes or freudians slips, these are one of the ways to identify mafia.

[Fenchurch]

Apokalyptika

(5) (cepi - DrippingGoofball - Ojanen - Hoopla - camn)

Also Ojanen is currently not voting - post 457.

You're right; these will be fixed.

[Fenchurch]

Okay first.

UNVOTE:

I haven't given the claim full consideration (and I can't find the breadcrumb in 428), but Apok is definitely not the lynch.

Haylen,

Those scenarios are completely different. For a start, you yourself didn't read the role PM's ect and didn't know the scum could Day Talk. That's not scummy. Obviously missing huge cases against players is.

I already said this: it's not that you didn't read the role pms, it's that you didn't read the game. You say "missing huge cases against players" is scummy, but by that logic then surely missing huge revelations that could confirm players is also scummy.

But beside that, I think you made some good points against camn (paragraphs 4, 6, 8, 10/11ish). I don't know if I'm as convinced as Ojanen is, but I will do a re-read.

[Fenchurch]

I do think Ojanen is town still, I agree with the camn case that I've read and I plan on adding my vote soon, but I don't think discussion is over yet, I don't agree with the pressure for an quick-lynch. For one thing, Snow White hasn't caught up, and I think it would be beneficial to have her take on the current cases before we lynch.

I plan on writing more but I'm busy at work at the mo. I'll be back later.

[Fenchurch]

Though Apok's breadcrumb is bad as it can be, it's something that can be handled later.

I didn't think the breadcrumb was bad, but my first thought was "she's claiming

VI

???"

[Fenchurch]

Okay I'll bite.

VOTE: camn

But if the game is still here later then I'll post more. Actually half of it isn't urgent, and the other half is reiterating the camn case.

[Fenchurch]

Nice commentary Red, and thanks for running the game. I really enjoyed watching it too, and I'm a little sad that I didn't get to play more in it... and that I spent most of the time sheeping whilst I was alive. I hammered Paws because I read her attempted self-vote as a "screw you" to her scumbuddies, as opposed to a "screw you" to town; and because Red disallowed it, I figured a scum self-hammer would be more unbalancing than a townie one. Additionally, it's a lot harder to get a lynch on a player that just replaced in, and I thought she was scummy enough that I didn't want to take that chance.

I jumped on the camn wagon for the reasons I gave; I thought the case was good, and that the point was to catch buddies by giving them less time to bus. TBH I'm perplexed at the way camn folded over her lynch. I can't remember now, did you give a reason for that in the dead topic camn?

Overall I think I fell behind by the game starting whilst I was on holiday, and didn't ever fully get up to speed.

Congrats to Hoopla for excellent play, and I was worried that she was gonna pull it through to get that mislynch at the end there.

My town -> scum list goes
Apok, SB, Ojanen, Hoopla, Miyu, UK, cepi, DGB, Sotty

In response to my request for hints, Red said that one of the scum was playing a 'stellar game', and after Ojanen flipped that narrowed it down to Hoop. I not sure that I would have known without that hint.

Congrats to Apok for hitting scum for the finish, and I would have chosen exactly the same vig targets on previous days if I'd been in your shoes.

Congrats to DGB for identifying the scumteam in her vote analysis on D3.

I agree with the comments in the dead topic that scum got really unlucky with PRs falling on players who otherwise might have been mislynches, in a town-weighted game to begin with.

Also one (minor) confusion I had with the set-up: if a mason was drawn, the automatic second mason would supposedly take up one of the remaining power-role slots. How would this work if the mason was the third PR to be drawn?

Also... hurrah town!

[Fenchurch]

Sotty don't feel bad, the odds were stacked against the scumteam in several ways out of your control.

And there was a fair amount of poor town play, myself included.