Square Enix Mafia I: Diabolus Erus (GAME OVER)
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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I still believe that Drowned is a Vigilante. It's silly for scums to kill a superlurker.
It would have been equally silly for scums to kill DTM last night. DTM was obnoxiously wrong on so many accounts, it's not even funny.,-
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EBWOP: And yes, that means I think that the Electrocution kill last night was either blocked or protected against.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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I haven't decided. Personally, I think it's more likely that the kill was protected against than blocked. Two reasons for this.Chronopie wrote:So as Kdub was RB'd (apparently), does that make him mafia?
First, I still have a hard time believing that KDub would flat-out admit that he was roleblocked if he were making the Electrocution kills.
Secondly, I feel that there are about three-ish players who are very, very clearly protown (myself included). They make obvious kill targets, and therefore obvious protect targets.
That said, I still suspect KDub a decent amount for the points I raised against him the other day. I haven't really had a chance to respond to KDub's rebuttals, but I've been busy and now I am wholly focused on getting MehPlusRawr lynched today. KDub can wait, if only for a little while.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Good job giving up.MehPlusRawr wrote:tl;dr
1. MPR lurks.
2. MPR says that a wagon stopping was good (when I was clearly, at least clearly to me inferring that it was bad)
3.MPR is lurking.
4. MPR is stupid.
I lurk. Yup. I suck at scumhunting. Yup.
Those aren't scumtells. Sorry.
Also, why do you keep referring to yourself in third person?
You can explain why you haven't bothered to comment on any three fourths of the players in the game, or why you haven't brought up an original point against anyone except Prana (and I guess "IIoA" towards Anti, which hardly counts as that's a nontell).
Your tl;dr is a grossly inaccurate misrepresentation of the case against you, and you are apparently too lazy to even try to defend yourself properly.
Obviously if you're protown, you've done nothing to help the town so far, and you're doing nothing to prevent a lynch on a townie. Thus, I can only continue to surmise that you are scum.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Setup speculation over lynching confirmed scum? Please.
KDub, do you honestly believe that we'll figure anything out without seeing at least one or two more scum corpses? Because we've spent 3+ days (and nights) talking in circles and we still don't even know how many scumgroups there are, what size they are, whether there's an SK, or where most of the kills are actually coming from. And unless people start claiming (which I wouldNOTsuggest), we're not GOING to know until we've found more scums.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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BTW: MPR, please link me tono less than four gamesin which you ignored the vast majority of the game's players for most of the game. I want to see if that behavior is in fact "fairly common" for you. That's the biggest non-defense in the world.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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BTW, with six people HoSing MPR, he should claim. It's equivalent to being at Lynch -1.
I'm curious to see what fakeclaim he comes up with.-
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Also, the odds of MPR lying are astronomically high. Someone posted as Rosa Farrell N1 in the QuickTopic, and that's very clearly a Doctor role, as she is a White Mage.
Don't buy it. Lynch posthaste.
Vote Count:
Someone is wearing a charm bangle...
Not Voting:
AdumbroDeus
Antifinity
bill1148
Chronopie
Devotress
dramonic
Glork
JPSalazar
KDub
MehPlusRawr
thatguy00
wolframnhart
Lynch:
7 votes.
Deadline:
June 15th - 9:00 PM EST-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Yeah, Doc claim is the only sensible thing for scum to do here, especially when he's caught in the manner he is and doesn't have a legit response. I think it's very apparent that he's scum and just hoping to out the Doctor for a nightkill.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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There appears to be a musickal roleblocker going 'round these parts. Bad plan.thatguy00 wrote:if theres a vig, target me tonight, I can self protect, that would surely clear me right?
thatguy, to clarify: Are you saying you're Rosa?-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Glork wrote:thatguy, to clarify: Are you saying you're Rosa?-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Parallel to Rosa. I'm willing to believe it.
That means if you're a Doc and Rosa's still out there, then Meh isDEFINITELYlying. And Rosa should definitely protect thatguy tonight.
I'd vote, but I'm blind. Please lynch the scumbag immediately.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Yeah, Bill that was rather idiotic of you and definitely gives you minus points.
I can't vote but I would suggest that the next few people to read the thread just post that you're around and see if we can't get three voters on at the same time. We can still save Devo if we are smart about it, and I like having confirmed townies around.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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I request to claim last.
In the meantime, in light of the last two flips, I really only have one thing to post:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdLXfGTNBgE-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Possibly silly question, but how do you KNOW that one of the three of us targeted you last night?JPSalazar wrote:
You were just so sure that nobody was Doomed. I know I was targeted because I received the PM. It's either you, Anti, or Glork that targeted me. At first, I wanted to just ignore the failed Doom and see if the Doomer would slip up, but thank you for completely blowing my attempt to wait for that to happen.bill1148 wrote:Interesting that no one was doomed last night. I'm going to assume that our Doomer decided it is pointless to use the ability any longer, since it only gives away other player's factions. Which means Doom is defintely not a Vig or SK.
You're most likely the Doomer, primarily because you've simply poked in and out, and so many people have been receiving scummy vibes off of you for a while. I'd refer to the Inn and people's posts in there, but to be honest, I don't know if that's allowed.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Also, pro fucking tip, guys.
The lack of kill is because of Rosa -- the second doctor, not some roleblocker. ELEPHANT IN THE FUCKING ROOM.-
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Antifinity's role should be very obvious, too, but I will let him claim to see if he doesn't trap himself (if he happens to be scum).
I'm actually thinking there's one Mafia and one SK left, and that's it. Not really convinced of a second four-person scumgroup anymore.
I tried to make my breadcrumbing more and more obvious as the game went on, but I'm surprised it took anybody this long to catch on. Anyway, to make it official, I'mRosa Farrell, Doctor.
Thatguy is 99% confirmed to me for two reasons:
1) He correctly identified that he could protect himself. (Yes, I can cast cure on myself.)
2) His rolename is a very close parallel to my own rolename. (Rosa is a White Mage in FFIV, and Cedore is her son and the main protagonist of FFIV: The After Years.)
I will now 99% confirm myself to him by pointing out one thing:
If one of us "protects" Lich, we will almost certainly kill him. Soon as I read my role PM, I guessed either Lich or scum with the Zombify ability, to cover possible unintended consequences of protecting someone.
I will not claim my targets yet in case Anti is scum, but I will do so (with complete reasoning) as soon as he pops in and claims.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Actually, there seem to be too many anti-town abilities for there to be just two scums left.
I need to think about this for a while.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Doom being a Lich ability would still create the problem of multiple kills in one group, as there were two nights with both Electrocution and Doom.
Roleblocking SK isn't completely unreasonable, except I don't think it fits in with the slate of abilities over the course of the game.
I'm a little preoccupied, so I don't have time for a complete night action analysis. Plus, any such analysis is moot until Anti claims. Once we have all claims and actions in, I'll compile a COMPLETE list of all claims, known and unknown actions (with targets, where applicable), and I'll take a look at what loose ends we need to tie up.
At any rate, I think we have to assume that today is LyLo. Worst-case scenario, it is Lich + SK left, and we're not completely fucked. But if we assume Lich + SK and there turns out to be a second mafia, we could easily lose today.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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It's *possible* that one of us is a scum doctor, but the whole "I can protect myself" thing really sealed the deal for me, along with the similar rolename origin. It's pretty rare to have the self-protect clause in a Doctor role PM, because it's decently powerful. If that's the case, then scum have clearly been given fakeclaims, so that's something to keep in mind.
Also, after reading some stuff, Anti's role isn't nearly as obvious as I initially thought.
My suspicion of Dramonic has once again risen dramatically. Dram, please vote for JP so we can get a votecount. I want to see if I can confirm at least the Lightning Element aspect of your role.-
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Oh, sorry... I thought Earth was resistant to Lightning. It's Earth/Wind, though. Brain fart.
A mafia doctor may exist if there are two scumgroups. But as I posted, I don't see it as being very likely at all.-
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I was thinking that your vote wouldn't count if he were earth and you were lightning. What the fuck does Barbariccia have to do with anything?dramonic wrote:but barbariccia would be wind.
Isn't that the reason you wanted me to vote JP?-
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I'm still confused as to how you think that "2 scum teams" led to me thinking you were scum. The two thoughts were entirely unrelated. In fact, I didn't even post that I was more suspicious of you until several posts AFTER I said there may be two scumgroups.dramonic wrote:
You said the possibility of 2 scum team resurfaced for you and that your suspicion of me went back up. My assumption was that you think I'm fakeclaiming and am Barbariccia, since that's the closest to my element in the other archfiends (with Tiamat dead and all).Glork wrote:
I was thinking that your vote wouldn't count if he were earth and you were lightning. What the fuck does Barbariccia have to do with anything?dramonic wrote:but barbariccia would be wind.
Isn't that the reason you wanted me to vote JP?
This sounds a bit like a guilty conscience speaking.
(On a sidenote, I also had no idea who the fuck Barbariccia is until you mentioned the name. Had to go look it up myself.)
Could somebody else please glance over N1 and N2 of the QuickTopic and point out the elephant(s) in the room?
Also,MOD: PLEASE PROD ANTI-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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And that's why Isos lead to fail assumptions, especially in a fast-paced game.
Vote Count:
bill1148: 1(JPSalazar)
Antifinity: 1(Chronopie)
Not Voting:
AdumbroDeus
Antifinity
bill1148
dramonic
Glork
Midnight's Sorrow
thatguy00
Lynch:
5 votes.
Deadline:
June 25th - 5:00 PM EST-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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You mean an element? Nope. Nothing here.bill1148 wrote:@Glork & thatguy- Do you have any strengths/weaknesses (like dramonic and Chrono)? If so, name them please.
Like I said, my PM indicates that using protective magic can have some side effects. I immediately assumed that meant that there was an Undead-typed player in the game, and/or that a scum had the ability to put the Zombie status on others. Aside from that (and the fact that I could self-protect), it's run-of-the-mill.
Also, Bill, I disagree that Chrono is the safest lynch today. I am also leaning towards there being 1 of Scum A, 4 of Scum B, and 4 town left. But unless Chrono is theONLYperson we can identify as being "likely scum," he should be kept alive and able to kill. That way, if wedomislynch and heisa Vig, he has a reasonable chance to keep us in the game.-
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Yes, generally the scums lie and pretend that they are town.Midnight's Sorrow wrote:Well if theres only four townies.... Someones lying.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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It's very possible if Doom is the second kill (though admittedly, that'd be extremely weak at this point). I feel very strongly that Tiamat tried to kill again (worked every night before last night), and that I protected whomever he targeted. But then again, I feel this way because I know who I protected last night.
I'm not sure... I'm kind of commenting as I go right now, and not taking into consideration every known action over the course of the entire game. Like I said, if Anti ever gets in here and claims, I will compile a complete list of claimed roles/actions, known action results, and other implied/claimed information.
Basically, the one thing that's tripping me up no matter what theory I try to come up with is the "Reduced to Nothingness" kill N1. If that's the same group as Doom, why aren't they using that instead? If it's not, where the fuck did it come from and why hasn't it been used since N1? I honestly have absolutely no idea what to make of it right now. It doesn't seem to fit anywhere.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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N1, I protected Glork, because I figured I was the best asset to the town
N2, I protected Glork, because I figured I was still the best asset to the town
N3, I protected Devo because she was very obviously protown
N4, I protected Devo, because she was very obviously protown
--NOTE: My protections didNOTprevent Devo from being Doomed, which actually kind of pissed me off. N3, I was debating between myself, inHim, and Devo and went with Devo. Then inHim turned up dead and Devo got doomed. I sent Kise a very irritated PM after that.
N5, I WIFOM'd and protected myself, because I knew the scums would assume thatguy was being protected by Rosa, and I predicted a "block thatguy, kill Glork" attempt.
Ifrit was one of the "elephants in the room" I had in mind when referring to reviewing the QuickTopic. The other is the fact that our "???" man, who said Tidus is not in the game, never claimed.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Based on this, JP is a better lynch than Chrono. Like I said earlier, if webill1148 wrote:And JP is probably lying. He claimed Earth elemental in the same post he claimed Galuf: Commuter (Post 1443). Then he said he had no strengths or weaknesses (Post 1534). If thats true, WHY HAVE AN ELEMENT.arewrong about Chrono and he is a Vig, then he should be kept alive. Chrono is only the best lynch if he is theONLYlikely scum around.
But this is a pretty nice catch.
Spill it now or die. Also, explain why you didn't reveal your leet tech earlier.Chronopie wrote:BTW: I has Tech secret info (Borrowing a phrase from SpyreX lol), relating to Doom.
Chrono: What role do you think Bill has?-
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EBWOP: Actually, I should reword that first sentence. JP is asaferlynch than Chrono, because of "in case we are wrong," etc. If we're certain that both are scum, then neither can really be called "better" than the other unless one of the two is Lich.
With the absence of any kind of tracker or watcher, the people who claimed roles with no actions are clearly the front-runners for fakeclaims.
It's possible that scum were given falseclaim PMs, but I'm still very inclined to believe that thatguy is protown. He and I very, very probably are of the same alignment, and it'd be silly to not have a single protective role in a game with multiple scumgroups.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Also, time for action analysis.
I am going to assume that "Ifrit" was bv setting up a fakeclaim. (Incidentally, that makes me question Dram more than I normally would.)
FOLLOW-UP QUESTIONS:
JP:On which night(s) have you commuted? What are the rules/restrictions on your ability commute?
Thatguy:Who did you protects N1 through N3? Why?
General:Where the fuck did the "Tidus isn't in this game" post come from?
General:What prospective antagonist(s) could N1 "reduced to nothingness" come from?
General:Is Doom a second kill option for the Tiamat/Kraken/Marilith/Lich group, or could it come from an alternate role/killer/SK/group?-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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And my pesronal analysis:
-- From where I'm sitting, it looks decently likely that "Reduced to Nothingness" happened N1, and possibly N2. When it failed, the scums picked a new killer (Chronopie, which happened to coincide with them starting to crosskill. Perfect excuse to make a "vig" out of nothing.
-- Not sure about the Doom thing. I still don't like the idea that a scum could have two kills per day, especially as the D1 kill would be largely unavoidable. It is possible that Doom was blocked N1 (nobody claimed to have been blocked) but has been trying to kille very night. If Doom does belong to Lich, I think it's decently likely that it was disallowed as an ability N1 due to the D1 lynch threshold.
-- Five people (Glork, Anti, FC - now Adumbro, wolfram as crybaby - now Midnight, and Chrono) all posted during the same night that "???" posted. I don't think this is significant or could lead us to anything concrete, but it seems to me that "???" is/was some kind of scum with an investigative ability, and that they decided not to claim here in endgame. If "???" is still alive, then they would be among (Bill, JP, Dramonic, thatguy). It is worth noting that Dram posted in the QuickTopic on three OTHER nights, though.
-- It seems obvious (to me) that thatguy and I are both town. At the very least, it is extremely likely that we have the same alignment, as I alluded to earlier. We were both able to name aspects of the Protection Mechanic that are fairly unique to this game, so we both obviously have knowledge of how protection works. Now, two things are possible that could make either of us scum: There is a Mafia Doctor (though this does not fit with our projected rolenames remaining); or the scums were given full role PM fakeclaims with the ability to ask/get explanations about protection mechanics.
-- The nature of the missing kill N2 makes me wonder... but I don't think it is possible for us to figure out WHY it wasn't there. It's possible that Anti is "Reduced to Nothigness" person who got blocked. It's possible that the scums tried to kill me. It's possible that the scums tried to kill whomever Thatguy protected. We have no way of knowing this at this point, and the best we can do is say "there is a missing scumkill for an unknown reason" at this point.
I'm actually leaning towards lynching Chrono rather than JP for two reasons.
1) If JP is in fact undead, either thatguy or I could potentially kill him. There's no confirmation that protecting undead would kill them, but that's the extremely educated guess I've made on that.
2) Right now, Chrono is the most likely scum from my perspective:
--2a) The aformentioned kill analysis suggests that, if the scums tried to kill every night, then Reduced to Nothigness doesn't overlap with Drowned, but the other kill methods all overlap in ways that don't make much sense. I originally paired Nothingness with Doom because Nothigness happened N1, and Doom happened from N2 onwards, but given how uniquely Doom works (and the fact that it is easily avoidable after D2), there is ZERO reason to use Nothingness N1 and Doom every other night. That logic is completely backwards.
--2b) Chrono seems to conclude that Bill is a decent Lich candidate, and wants to lynch Bill. But if there are 4 scums, and Chrono is among them, then he's obviously playing for autowin right here and now. There are too many anti-town abilities to support "Lich + an SK" which Chrono seems to conveniently ignore... and he's could go "but I can vig someone!" which he knows is an a base assumption no other protown player could possibly make.
So yeah. I'm pretty content with a Chronolynch right now. I do want Thatguy's N1-N3 role actions before I rush into a decision, though.... just in case that changes anything.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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To expand a little bit on my second note (Doom), keep in the wayyyyy back of your head the possibility of a Serial Killerin additionto two mafia groups.
Mafia Group 1:
Goon (Tiamat)
Goon (Marilith)
Politician (Kraken)
Something Undeadish (Lich)
Mafia Group 2:
Roleblocker (Barbariccia? Fuck if I know)
Goon (Leviathan)
Goon (Cagnazzo?)
Something Undeadish (Scarmiglione)
SK:
Something that Dooms.
It's possible...There are even other possibliities (Iece actually being scum) that are also unknowable right now, but distinctly possible. But I think we still have to play today as if we MUST lynch one of "Mafia Group 2," whether Doom comes from a Serial Killer or not.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Also,.NOBODY VOTE UNTIL WE HAVE COME TO A DECISION AND I HAVE A CHANCE TO WORK OUT NIGHT ACTIONS BETWEEN ME AND THATGUY
I have something in mind that I think will force the scums to take some extreme risks and/or pigeonhole themselves into taking certain actions.
But if anybody even puts someone at Lynch-1 (scum can always self-hammer) before I get a chance to talk to thatguy, IWILLpush for your lynch tomorrow, no questions asked.
Do I make myself absolutely clear? Please quote this post and confirm that you won't do anything rash until I can coordinate with thatguy.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Yes, and that's exactly how I felt up until I did my nightkill analysis and read over Chrono's posts on Page 63.
Typically, if your scumgroup has a kill fail, you'll switch targets and switch the person making your kill. You don't know whether your kill got protected against or whether it got roleblocked, but you want your next kill to have as high a chance of resolving as possible. So:
N1 Nothingness kill
N2 Nothingness kill failed (blocked or protected, unknown)
N3 - switch to Drowning kill, make it look like a Vig
N4 - Drown "vig"
N5 - Drown "vig"
...makes the most sense to me. It's the smartest play for scum to make, and it has even worked so far, as I assumed "Drowning Vig" up until last night/today.
To me, it's not a question anymore of the "possibility" of Chrono being a vig, or JP being a commuter. It's a matter oflikelihood. And Chrono looks verylikelyto be scum, while I'm a little undecided about JP.
Like I said, if JP is lying, he (or anyone else) can easily be checked for Undeadness tonight. Chrono definitely does drowning, so if we mislynch JP, neither thatguy nor I can kill JP tonight.
Here's what I currently propose:
Lynch Chrono.
If he is Leviathan/Vig, both thatguy AND I will target JP with "protections." Even if JP is a scum commuter, it's highly unlikely that he can commute two nights in a row, so we are pretty much guaranteed to kill him, since they can only block one of us (presumably),
If Chrono is Cagnazzo or whatever other scum, then thatguy and I will each RANDOMLY choose one of the following four actions:
Protect Glork
Protect thatguy
"Protect" JP
"Protect" Bill
That makes the scum either play it "safe" and be fairly ineffective, or take a risk and potentially have multiple dead scums (and/or no scumkill).-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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EBWOP:Glork wrote:Chrono definitely does drowning, so if we mislynch JP, neither thatguy nor I can kill Chrono tonight.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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No lynch is a TERRIBLE idea. There is ZERO benefit to no-lynching, rather than just lynching likely scums.
Good effort, Chrono, but no. You're going to die today.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Also, Chrono: How did you come across such information?
And like I said, what role do you think Bill has? Do you think he's Lich? If so, why lynch him instead of someone from the FULL SCUMGROUP?-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Hmm, there is a potential issue here.
If we lynch Chrono as part of Mafia2 and Lich and one townsperson die tonight, then the scums will win with 3 mafia out of 6 alive. It looks like LichMUSTcrosskill tonight for this game to continue.
Thinking. I'm considering trying to work towards a Lich/Town draw, if Kise will allow it. That would require Lich to come out and claim, though, and I'm not sure I can convince them to do it.
Need to think about numbers a bit.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Okay. It looks like thatguy and I are going to randomly protect ourselves or each other (just flip a coin, thatguy), and Lich needs to crosskill, or choose to nokill. OtherwiseLICH AND THE TOWN WILL LOSE. Because the scums will kill Lich, and if Lich hits a townie, they'll have 3/6 players. So if Lich fuck up, I don't want to hear any postgame bullshit about messing up a kill.
Bill, please read and comment. You seem to be the only other person interested in working out the numbers game, so I want at least one person to doublecheck my thought process here.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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If Bill is Lich and you are part of the second scumgroup, you will win tonight and the town will lose. This isChronopie wrote:Also ftr: I'm willing to make a 1:1 trade. We lynch Bill, and if he's Vanilla (not Lich), I'll take the rope tomorrow.NOT HAPPENING, soGIVE IT UP. I've already told you this like twice and you're STILL trying to push this bullshit autowin strategy. Furthermore, IDIRECTLY ASKED YOU WHY YOU WANT TO LYNCH LICH INSTEAD OF SOMEONE FROM THE OTHER SCUMGROUP, AND YOU HAVE BLATANTLY IGNORED MY QUESTION, even though you answered the OTHER questions I asked in the EXACT SAME POST:Glork wrote:Also, Chrono: How did you come across such information?
And like I said, what role do you think Bill has? Do you think he's Lich? If so, why lynch him instead of someone from the FULL SCUMGROUP?
So apparently I have to play hardball. Chrono, I won't tell you how I feel about your four potential Lich suspects until I'm satisfied with every answer you have to give me.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Chronopie wrote:If there is no Mafia 28:1
We lynch Lich => Town Win
We lynch a vanilla, Lich kills => 6:1 town can still win.
We Lynch a Vanilla, Lich doesn't kill/Fails to kill => 7:1 town can still win.
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I also notice that you have Lich no-killing, rather than just failing a kill, while the inverse for the mythical Mafia 2.ARE YOU REALLY SUGGESTING THAT LICH CAN KILL, DOOM, AND ROLEBLOCK ALL PACKAGED INTO ONE, AND THAT HE IS THE ONLY SCUM LEFT IN THE GAME?
For fuck's sake, Chorno. You are 100% confirmed scum at this point.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Also, it's pretty obvious that the scumgroup is {Chrono, JP, Dumbro, Dram} given the triplegangbang on Bill, even though I've pointed out a billion times over that if Bill is Lich, heSHOULD NOT BE LYNCHED TODAY.
Protip, guys: Tunnel-visioning on outing the last scum in the mostly-dead scumgroup isn't good town play. The ONLY town play today is to lynch someone from the FULL scumgroup.
So I have three questions that I demand Chrono, Dram, and Dumbro each answer in each of their next posts:
1) WHY HAVEN'T YOU BOTHERED TO LOOK FOR SCUM OUTSIDE OF BILL, ESPECIALLY IF YOU THINK BILL IS LICH?
2) WHICH FOUR PLAYERS DO YOU THINK ARE IN THE SECOND SCUMGROUP, AND WHY?
3) WHO DO YOU WANT TO LYNCH TODAY, AND WHY?-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Keep in mind that if the Doctors try to kill Lich instead of protecting, then the odds of Mafia 2 failing a kill are astronomically small.bill1148 wrote:
^This is assuming that the doctors protect themselves/each other, rather than trying to kill Scarmiglione or Lich.bill1148 wrote:
Well, assuming the ratio right now is 4:4:1Glork wrote:Okay. It looks like thatguy and I are going to randomly protect ourselves or each other (just flip a coin, thatguy), and Lich needs to crosskill, or choose to nokill. OtherwiseLICH AND THE TOWN WILL LOSE. Because the scums will kill Lich, and if Lich hits a townie, they'll have 3/6 players. So if Lich fuck up, I don't want to hear any postgame bullshit about messing up a kill.
Bill, please read and comment. You seem to be the only other person interested in working out the numbers game, so I want at least one person to doublecheck my thought process here.
If a Mafia from faction 2 is lynched, ratio is 4:3:1 (in Town's favor)
If Lich is killed and Lich kills a Town, ratio is 3:3 => Mafia 2 wins.
If Lich is killed and Lich doesn't kill, ratio is 4:3 => Town can still win.
If Lich is killed and Lich kills a mafia, ratio is 4:2 => Town can still win.
If Mafia 2 fails a kill and Lich doesn't kill, ratio is 4:3:1 => Town can still win.
If Mafia 2 fails a kill and Lich kills a Town, ratio is 3:3:1 => Town can still win.
If Mafia 2 fails a kill and Lich kills a mafia, ratio is 4:2:1 => Town can still win.
If Mafia 2 kills a Town and Lich kills a Town, ratio is 3:2:1 => Mafia 2 wins.
If Mafia 2 kills a Town and Lich kills a mafia, ratio is 3:2:1 => Town can still win.
If Mafia 2 kills a Town and Lich doesn't kill, ratio is 3:3:1 => Town can still win.
All possible scenarios I can think of. Bold is our only chance.
But if they do, then to add to the above:
If the doctor kills Lich, Mafia 2 kills Town, and Lich kills Town, ratio is 3:2 => Mafia 2 wins.
If the doctor kills Lich, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich kills Town, ratio is 3:3 => Mafia 2 wins.
If the doctor kills Lich, Mafia 2 kills Town, and Lich kills Mafia, ratio is 3:2 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Lich, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich kills Mafia, ratio is 4:2 =>Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Lich, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich's kill fails, ratio is 4:3 =>Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2 kills Town, and Lich kills Town, ratio is 2:2:1 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich kills Town, ratio is 3:2:1 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2 kills Town, and Lich kills Mafia, ratio is 3:1:1 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich kills Mafia, ratio is 4:1:1 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2 kills Lich, and Lich kills Town, ratio is 3:2 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2 kills Lich, and Lich kills Mafia, ratio is 4:1 => Town can still win.
If the doctor kills Scarmiglione, Mafia 2's kill fails, and Lich's kill fails, ratio is 4:2:1 => Town can still win.
And I've stated that Thatguy and I should protect ourselves/each other. So of the first-case scenarios you listed,.Lich must crosskill/nokill, unless we happen to actually get a successful protection against Mafia 2's kill
So yeah. Bill, if you're Lich, you should know what you have to do. I know I used WIFOM last night to ninja-protect myself, but I promise none of that this time around. I will be flipping a coin to protect myself or thatguy, 100% guarantee. It gives the town the best odds for survival.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Apologies for the walls of text and multiposting. My mind is running quite fast right now and I don't want to stop.
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Thatguy, Antifinity, Midnight (and Bill): Do you agree with my assessment of the second scumgroup?
If not, who do you think is in the second scumgroup?
If so, do you think it might be worthwhile to try and lynch the Mafia2 Roleblocker instead of Chrono today?
That would greatly increase our chances of not-dying, I think.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Ooh.
Lich can also doom a suspected scum tonight, and we can run the counter down intentionally. Hadn't thought about that.
MOD: What is the win condition for anti-town (Mafialike) factions?
Hypothetically, if the game situation is 6 players with 3 in the same scumgroup (for a 3:3 or 3:2:1 ratio) but one of the "3 in the same scumgroup" can be killed during the day, will the game continue?-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Chronopie wrote:WHAT SECOND SCUMGROUP?
WHAT SECOND SCUMGROUP?Glork wrote:[ARE YOU REALLY SUGGESTING THAT LICH CAN KILL, DOOM, AND ROLEBLOCK ALL PACKAGED INTO ONE, AND THAT HE IS THE ONLY SCUM LEFT IN THE GAME?Glork wrote:[ARE YOU REALLY SUGGESTING THAT LICH CAN KILL, DOOM, AND ROLEBLOCK ALL PACKAGED INTO ONE, AND THAT HE IS THE ONLY SCUM LEFT IN THE GAME?Glork wrote:[ARE YOU REALLY SUGGESTING THAT LICH CAN KILL, DOOM, AND ROLEBLOCK ALL PACKAGED INTO ONE, AND THAT HE IS THE ONLY SCUM LEFT IN THE GAME?-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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But yes, you're right about the No Lynch thing. I hadn't noticed that.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Also, Chrono, I would love for you to explain how Lich is a "man in a brown cloak."
If you don't think Lich is the roleblocker, please explain where you think it's coming from, if not a different dirty scumbag.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Soooo.... Lich isn't the brown-cloaked person.Chronopie wrote:
I don't know where the roleblock fits in, but Lich is the Doomer. So yes, Lich can Kill and Doom the same night. and yes, I do think he's the only scum left.Glork wrote:ARE YOU REALLY SUGGESTING THAT LICH CAN KILL, DOOM, AND ROLEBLOCK ALL PACKAGED INTO ONE, AND THAT HE IS THE ONLY SCUM LEFT IN THE GAME?
Logically we wouldn't have two elemental scum groups, and we don't have any consistent non-elemental kills to suggest a non-elemental scum group, therefore I doubt we have two scumgroups.
No protown player is the brown-cloaked person (lack of claim plus attempt to block the claimed Doctor last night).
But you're not sure if there's another scum in the game and are assuming Lich is the only one left?
Logical fail.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Another thing, Chrono: How do you know that Dram isn't the "non-mafia elemental player" in the game?
I find it awfully funny that you're saying "there can't be another scumgroup because that would put all of the elements into scumgroups" whileautomatically concluding that Dram is scum if there are two scumgroups.
Slip-up ftw.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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My point is that Dram mightNOT BE FAKE-CLAIMINGand there might beTWO NON-ELEMENTAL TOWNIES WHO ARE LYING SCUMBAGS.
Yet you automatically conclude that Dram must be in a "second hypothetical scumgroup," which is definitely a slip-up. Way to drag your scumbuddy down with you, Chrono.
Lich, please kill Dramonic tonight.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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No, you're right, I am completely consumed by the fact that Chrono is trying to autowin today by pushing bullshit lynches.AdumbroDeus wrote:Now that I'm finished repeating stuff that I said like 50 times before...
@Glork, why did you ignore my previous statements on the other scumgroup/who we should lynch toDay?
Especially who we should lynch toDay, considering I was the person who suggested it first, and my questioning of bill revolved primarily around why he wasn't pushing to lynch chrono since Chrono was the obvious safest lynch choice. How could you ignore that seriously?
The triple combined pressure on Bill the last page looked like you were hoping someone would ride the wave onto voting him, so the groupoffour could off him.
Midnight: Do you think that there are more than one remaining scum in the Orange Scumgroup, then? I still refuse to believe that Lich does both Doomandroleblocking, so there is definitely at least one other scum.
And one scumgroup still doesn't explain the "Reduced to Nothingess" kill on ABR N1.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Dramonic was all over Bill, too, going on about how he is 'obvscum.'AdumbroDeus wrote:Who was the third though, JP was riding him earlier, and chrono to a degree, but it was just me pressuring him that page, dram just jumped on at the last moment (scum buddying?).
I don't think anyone's stupid enough to toss a vote in, Chrono's been scummy enough now that anyone following the game knows it's lylo.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Unlynchable SK is an inherently broken role, as the town has no Vigilante so they could not possibly beat you. This entire debate seems kinda pointless to me.
Anyway, I really don't think we have anything more to say today.
Vote: Chronopie-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Not surprisingly, I got the music-flavored roleblock.
I am not doomed.
6 alive, 2 scums left. We are still in LyLo.
Will re-read the entire game for Dram/Chrono/X/Y connections in the next few days. Not looking forward to it, but it has to be done.
FOSES ONLY FOR THE TIME BEING.
If nobody owns up to being doomed, then it is on lying scum and we will spin down the doom coutner.
If somebody obviuosly protown (aka, thatguy) is doomed, we leave the doom counter as is.
If somebody ubersuspicious admits to being doomed, I'll make a decision from then.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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I think they RB"d me because they thought I'd be more likely to go after JP, given I said Rosa had to protect Thatguy, then protected myself.AdumbroDeus wrote:Right and right, and scum 2 killed lich like I hoped they would and, evidently lich picked correctly with Barbariccia.
That leaves JP as pretty obviously scum and an unknown Rubricant.
Glork, you got RB'd? And nobody went after you or thatguy for a kill? That seems... odd.
And I got doomed, makes sense since I was working so hard to out him.
For the record, I didn't go after JP. (And in postgame, Kise can confirm that I actually sent him a dice tag and had to ask him what the result was. By the way, apparently I tried to protect myself.)
I think they killed Bill because they feared exactly what he ended up doing -- crosskills. I explained why Lich (which everyone knew was Bill at that point) had to crosskill to stand a chance, and chances are he'd have to crosskill again tonight. Mafia2 needed him out of the way.-
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