why are prana and sorasgoof wagoned?
Pick Your Power III: A Brave New World
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manho Mafia Scum
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i think i have a brain, and i think you are implying a stupid townie or a clever scum above you, which are the top 5 in the list, has picked neighborizer. but why did you pick neighborizer if you think only a stupid townie or clever scum will do it? are you a stupid townie or a clever scum? i think you are the later one.PranaDevil wrote:Incidentally, for the record, in case people want to know why I said we either have a stupid townie, or clever scum, is I went for Neighborizor.
If you have a brain you'll work it out, if you haven't, the town is doomed anyway.
##unvote,
##vote: prana-
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manho Mafia Scum
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what's wrong with my 4 posts?Parama wrote:
'cause he's scum.PranaDevil wrote:Also why are your last four posts all over the place? You go from wondering why I'm wagoned, to voting for me, to unvoting me again, with sod all in between.
I called him as scum before he even posted - glad to see my suspicions are correct!
What manho has done thus far:
1. RVS vote without reading the thread ("why are prana and sorasgoof wagoned?")
2. Questioning the usefulness of massclaim - trying to say it's a bad idea
3. Wagon vote + misrep of Prana
4. Ad hom reason to unvote now that he realizes the Prana wagon died before he hopped on it.
Confirm vote: manho
1. i've read the thread, but i don't see the reason behind the 2 wagons.
2. i really don't see the point behind a massclaim. maybe you guys have experience from previous games, but you still need to convince me.
3. that's not a wagon vote and not a misrep. he is calling someone stupid for picking neighbourizer but he pick it also. it really doesn't make sence. so i go for clever scum then.
4. that's not an ad hom. a clever scum should have recognise that that post doesn't make sence, so i unvoted. call it wifom.-
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manho Mafia Scum
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exactly what?PranaDevil wrote:
Exactly.dramonic wrote:I can understand the clever scum part, but the idiot townie doesn't really cut it for me. Why would someone higher than you be an idiot for picking neighbour and you not be for doing the exact same thing?
dramonic is asking why you are not an idiot townie or clever scum to pick neighbourizer. and "exactly" is not a proper answer for that.-
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manho Mafia Scum
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i still don't get the point of massclaiming. scum don't need to fake claim, and they can take a "pro-town" role as it reduce the power of the town. and a townie can also take a "scummy" role such as a rediretor or vig, as they are too dangerous a role for the mafia team.
and i also don't see the reason for the wagon on me. parama has said something about my first 4 posts, but i've also explained them.-
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i got it fate. scum will defintely lie if they got a "scummy role", as they can't use that role to do anti-town things.
another example is that claimed vig can't kill a pro-town player. and i think the vig kills are pretty under control by the town. all we need to worry is a hidden redirector, or scum claimed to be redirected.
so a massclaim effectively takes away all scum's "scummy" role.-
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manho Mafia Scum
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i really don't know what you are trying to say then. explain it clearly to someone like me who have no brain please.PranaDevil wrote:I'm Prana.
and people are honestly willing to lynch me for using my head, absolutely amazing.
A prize pillock is basically an idiot.
Incidentally, for the record, in case people want to know why I said we either have a stupid townie, or clever scum, is I went for Neighborizor.
If you have a brain you'll work it out, if you haven't, the town is doomed anyway.-
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manho Mafia Scum
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there are no such reasons in the thread, so you can't prove that i'm not reading the thread. and even a RVS vote without reading the thread is not a scum tell.Parama wrote:
'cause he's scum.PranaDevil wrote:Also why are your last four posts all over the place? You go from wondering why I'm wagoned, to voting for me, to unvoting me again, with sod all in between.
I called him as scum before he even posted - glad to see my suspicions are correct!
What manho has done thus far:
1. RVS vote without reading the thread ("why are prana and sorasgoof wagoned?")
that's a misrep. and questioning such an issue is actually pro-town as it arouse discussion.2. Questioning the usefulness of massclaim - trying to say it's a bad idea
so can you tell me prana's meaning of that post? i still can't get it and prana didn't seem like telling me. so why am i scummy for asking for that clarification?3. Wagon vote + misrep of Prana
that's not an ad hom. and the later part of this quote is just a wild guess. you can add in a scum motivation on almost every post in a mafia game.4. Ad hom reason to unvote now that he realizes the Prana wagon died before he hopped on it.-
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i've been so used to those closed game in another forum where all night-killed players' role are known by scum only. i didn't realise that.PranaDevil wrote:There's nothing in the janitor role that states the janitor will get to know the person's role either. Thereby negating that reason to push for a mass claim that will wipe out some of our exceptionally useful roles early on.
scum-vig can only make the kill approved by the town, and jailkeeper can only use the power on scummy player, approved by town also, if we are going to have a massclaim. so scums really don't have those additional power if we have the massclaim day 1.Plus, if scum do have the vigs, that means 2 kills on night 1, and night 2, and if they have the jailkeeper too, it would mean it could prevent other pro-town roles from working.-
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i admit to have only skim through the thread, and want to ask for a short summary on their wagon. but it isn't a scum tell. why are scum more likely to cast a random vote without reading the thread?Parama wrote:
There were most certainly reasons in-thread and even some in the pre-game thread. And not reading the thread while still posting an RVS vote... well, what if RVS had ended? What would your vote look like then?manho wrote:
there are no such reasons in the thread, so you can't prove that i'm not reading the thread. and even a RVS vote without reading the thread is not a scum tell.Parama wrote: What manho has done thus far:
1. RVS vote without reading the thread ("why are prana and sorasgoof wagoned?")
why is "trying to say a massclaim is a bad idea" a scum tell? and questioning such an issue is actually pro-town as it arouse discussion.Parama wrote:
It's not a misrep since it's what you implied even if you didn't say it.manho wrote:
that's a misrep. and questioning such an issue is actually pro-town as it arouse discussion.Parama wrote:2. Questioning the usefulness of massclaim - trying to say it's a bad idea
if you know it is a misrep, then you should know prana's original meaning. so tell me what prana mean in that post.Parama wrote:
Your post was just complete and total misrep, don't deny it.manho wrote:
so can you tell me prana's meaning of that post? i still can't get it and prana didn't seem like telling me. so why am i scummy for asking for that clarification?Parama wrote:3. Wagon vote + misrep of Prana
an ad hom is to disprove someone's claim by attacking that person himself. i attacked prana for being a stupid townie, but i didn't say his claim is wrong. assuming my interputation, which's in my 4th post, is right, then prana claim that a player picking neighborizer is either stupid townie or clever scum. i think that he's not a clever player, thus not a clever scum, thus a stupid townie by deduction.Parama wrote:
"prana is more likely a stupid townie" <--- attacking the player themself, thus ad hom, though it's a weird reverse thing where you used it to unvote. But that's really not a good reason to unvote - it just looks like jumping off a wagon after realizing it had broken down.manho wrote:
that's not an ad hom. and the later part of this quote is just a wild guess. you can add in a scum motivation on almost every post in a mafia game.Parama wrote:4. Ad hom reason to unvote now that he realizes the Prana wagon died before he hopped on it.-
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i still think we should mass-claim today. one night actions give the scum much more chance to fakeclaim. say the mafia kills the cop, then they can just claim to have picked cop and is vanilla. say they have an extra kill and kills the tracker, then they can just claim to have picked tracker and is vanilla. say they have a role cop and know that someone above them is the doc, then they can just claim to have picked doc and is vanilla. and the janitor can cover a victim's role, which leaves the scum another possiblity to fakeclaim, as they can fakeclaim vanilla and claim that the victim has picked his role.
@crymeariver, that list is wrong. an extra scum kill is much worse than a cop less. a scum kill usually go through, as the number of player not protected is much more than the number of player protected. but a cop usually don't hit scum, as the number of scum is much less than the number of townie. you may get a scum for ,say, every 3 nights, but you will have an extra 1.5 townie down for a scum vig by that time. that's not a good ratio and even a worse one if the cop is not that lucky.
another point is that, as you have said, scums has less players, and they are more likely to have picked the "scummy" roles. so all we need to do is to have someone at the bottom of the list to pick the cop, tracker, watcher, doc, to ensure the town have those roles if the scums don't pick them.-
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manho Mafia Scum
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after a massclaim, the important town powers may be night killed, but it didn't nullify all the powers, as they will only die one per night, or won't if the doc target right. but the scum powers cannot be used, at all. that's the major difference.
one of our power role will die, and maybe 2 if they have the vig, no matter we claim or not. the scum just need to kill someone on top of the list and they will kill a decent role. so, power role dying is not a reason for not massclaiming today.-
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manho
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1. they can claim the role of the lynched person.Sando wrote:I don't see how scum can ever fake-claim outside of what they have chosen within the scum-group?
2. they can claim the role of the scum killed person.
3. they can claim the role of the vigged person.
4. they can claim the role investigated by a scum rolecop.
5. they can guess and claim a role that no one have picked.
6. they can guess and claim (failed) a role that someone above has picked.
1-4 can only happen if we don't massclaim today. 5-6 can happen in both case, but there are risks in them.
it always happens if we are massclaiming, no matter when, so it is not a reason for massclaiming later.SerialClergyman wrote:So say 5 is watcher and 12 is even vig.
5 can claim even vig and 12 can claim vanilla for watcher and we'd have no idea that any of them were lying.
So the claim would seem to us to be 5 even vig and 12 vanilla.
Now apply this principle to ALL 5 SCUM and you can see the shitstorm of fakeclaims that are possible even on D1.
we can let most of the power roles to choose to from a small set of players. it will make scum decision more difficult.SerialClergyman wrote:doc - will never save a life (scum never target doc's target)
cop - has target chosen for them by group (worse imo than their own decision).
vigs - same
watcher - will never catch scum (scum kill non-watched target)
tracker - will never catch scum. (scum choose someone other than tracked member to kill)
bomb - will never kill scum (scum never NK him)
rolecop - nothing much changes.
jailkeeper - will never save a life or block a kill. (scum don't target jailed member or allow jailed member to make kill)
So while I agree that the scum players will be able to do less with their roles, I count 5 power roles that are rendered completely useless if town, and many more that are lessened.
Plus - the value of scum having lots of these roles is in denying town the roles. The value of stopping the scum using their roles effectively doesn't make up for loss of role power for the town.-
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i think the main reason for massclaiming today is to lock the scum into their real roles, as the scum have more information later and thus more ways to fakeclaim. and locking the scum into their real roles help a lot as they can't use their powers to benefit themselves.
and to help you understand the last sentence of my last post, i'll give an example of directing the doc:
chance for doc to protect the
cop: 40%
tracker: 30%
watcher: 30%
and ask the jailkeeper to jailkeep the doc with a 20% chance. then, scum need to take their chance to hit those 4 roles. they should feel free to kill one of our less useful roles though.-
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that's just an example. and the percentage is regarding the fact that cop is more useful a role than the others.PranaDevil wrote:I don't get the point of the percentages. Why not just say "doc protect one of these"?
it is problem no matter when we massclaim, so it's not a reason for not massclaiming today.Also, what's the point in a mass claim if not everyone's here anyway?
if no one is protecting the doc, scums can just kill the doc.More to the point... if the jailkeeper does protect the doc, we don't get any doc results regardless.
if it hurt the town now, it would hurt the town no matter when we mass claim.Mass claim would hurt the town right now anyway (plus, if scum did just claim Vanilla as they went for the "dead" role, then during the mass claim it would be obvious anyway)
by claiming now, vanilla-claiming scums will worry about the watchers and trackers and may not use the power, at all.Also, claiming tomorrow or the day after would mean any watchers/trackers/etc. could easily say "Actually you can't be vanilla as you did this" or acknowledge that they did nothing that night.
claiming the role that die is only an option, and scum will have much more such options if we do not massclaim today. by massclaiming today, the scum can only choose claiming his real role, or his buddy's role.Some of that might not work 100% but neither will a mass claim now, I see more benefit for tomorrow than today. (After all, if loads of people all claim that they went after the roles that died today/tonight, it will be suspicious).
if we are not massclaiming today, scum can still kill anyone on top of the list and will get a decent role killed.On top of that, scum appear to be getting a strong benefit from the mass claim, as others have said (and myself I think, or I thought it and I'm now mentioning it) as they can just work through picking off the town players.
then they couldPlus with 5 mafia, depending on their roles, they could quite easily lie to town.moreeasily lie to town if we don't massclaim today.
it is always a problem for every massclaim at any time for any game.No mass claim today is much more beneficial in my eyes, and if we do go for a mass claim, it needs 100% of the players to participate, not just some, if even one person doesn't participate, it can throw it all out.-
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say, you are the tracker, and you think A is scum. you will track A night 1 no matter when we massclaim, and no matter what he has claimed. if A has claimed vanilla in day 1 massclaim, and you tracked A night 1 that he is targetting someone else. then you can still say A was lying. there is no big difference.12Keyblade wrote:Nay
IMO, town power roles will be able to get enough info tonite that we might be able to verify scum fakeclaims tomorrow. (Scum: I claim nilla! Tracker: LIES)-
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fate is claiming role-related info that sorasgoof is scum, and i bet he will be asked to claim sooner or later. and with all the vanilla claim, lynched, killed, vigged person's flip, we will have already know more than a third of the role. it will be super easy for scum to fake claim then. so why not have a massclaim first, before asking fate to claim?-
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but town are more likely to be in any other spot than scum, as we have more town than scum. the point matters is that the top spot has a higher chance to be scumSando wrote:
Assuming everyone pretty much randomly picks, on average, 5.5 people would be the only one on their numbers. Of these, 3.5 would be town, 1.5 would be scum, and 0.5 would be mason. So town are 266% more likely to be the top spot than scum.Zang wrote:Ok, I never did the math. There are 5 scum and about 10 players that rolled their numbers or revealed their numbers. That let's scum know more than half the numbers so I assumed that scum would have a better chance of getting the #1 spot.than other spot.-
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the maths is right, but you need to consider the chance for scum to be in the first spot to the chance of finding scum randomly.Sando wrote:Nope, I did mean to multiply.
Each townie has a ~23.5% chance of noone else picking their number. As there are 17 townies, there will, on average, be 17x23.5% townies with noone picking their number. Do the same for scum and for mason, you get:
3.5 townies
0.5 masons
1.5 scum
A total of 5.5 people, on average, will have a solo-number, and therefor be ranked at the top.
Of these, 4 are pro-town, so make up ~72.5% of the top ranks, scum therefore make up 27.5%. So there are, when no rounding is done like I just did, 2.66 times as many town as scum in the solo ranks. Therefore town are 2.66 times as likely to get the top spot.-
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we get a 28% chance to catch scum in the top 5 spots, which is higher than the 23% chance when we are considering all players.manho wrote:P(scum|no one choosing their number)=1.55/(1.55+0.5+3.52)=0.28
P(scum)=5/22=0.23
so we are actually more likely to find scum in the top 5 spots than a random spot.-
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that's interesting.Socrates wrote:Here's the plan: Fate goes "I GOTZ ROLE INFO LYNCH PLOX." Soras flips town. Fate goes "OH GEE I MESSED UP." Town goes "Oh you rascal, you, Fate! You're too crazy to actually be scum!" and muss his hair up "Why don't you go sit in the corner while the grown ups find the real scum!"
Seriously. That's what he has been doing this entire game.
And it has been working apparently. =_=-
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i think i should have said neutral instead. and i can't find reasons to vote sorasgoof when iso'ing him. but i think i'm fine with a sorasgoof lynch.Parama wrote:manho wrote: just ios'ed sorasgoof, and he is town.
Hey look! Manho calls soras town without providing any reason!Parama wrote:.
Soras is scum.
Manho is scum. DGB doesn't understand why by DGB doesn't want to read a
will iso pom soon.
@ALL, remember that the power roles need to send in night actions before the lynch, so don't hammer so soon.
@mod, can we change our night choices before the lynch?
if yes, i suggest all power role send in a backup choice first.-
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##vote: Porkens
that's L-1.
i think we should definitely slow down. i can't send in a night action. scum is taking advantage of the quicklynch as they KNOW who to target and they can send in their action way before the lynch. but town don't. we need to decide who is scum/town to choose their target.-
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hoping to get a scum quickhammering it.Hoopla wrote:Manho...
...Why worry about quicklynches in the same post as putting Porkens at L-1?
i've planned to redirect parama to parama last night, but parama's quick hammer ruins it.Hoopla wrote:
Did you use it for anything last night?manho wrote:and to claim way before L-1 and a possible vig kill, as parama suggest, i'm the redirector. i take it simply to not let the scum team have it.-
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at least the vig know who he is vigging.PranaDevil wrote:That's not "claiming before L-1" That's just claiming for the sake of claiming, you were in no danger of being lynched tonight manho, and even if you're vigged, that post helps us none.
but no one seem like mass claiming now.Weren't you the one say we should mass claim so that roles aren't readily available for scum? Yet here you are blatantly giving scum a role they could claim below you now.
i was planning redirecting parama to parama as i think she is scum and she has claimed vanilla. so it does no harm to the town powers and will kill a scum if she makes the kill. but i actually didn't as parama quickhammered before i can send in my night choice.And like Hoopla says, did you use it for anything? If you did, on who and why? If you didn't, don't do so either.
see my last post.And of course... the whole worrying about quick lynches, when you're putting Porkens at L-1 yourself.
that only count as 1 vote, maybe we need another vote count. i won't do it again as no one is listen to me.At least we've worked out who the vig should take out... manho is as good as blatant scum, and on the small offchance he's not, he's becoming a liability for town anyway.-
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manho Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1723
- Joined: March 9, 2009
- Location: Hong Kong
-
-
manho Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1723
- Joined: March 9, 2009
- Location: Hong Kong
-
-
manho Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1723
- Joined: March 9, 2009
- Location: Hong Kong
-
-
manho Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1723
- Joined: March 9, 2009
- Location: Hong Kong
-
-
manho Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1723
- Joined: March 9, 2009
- Location: Hong Kong
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