Left 4 Dead Mafia - Day 6?


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Post Post #15 (isolation #0) » Sat Mar 06, 2010 5:46 pm

Post by almightybob »

/confirm

Voting before the game even starts bv310? Little keen to start lynching are we :P
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Post Post #19 (isolation #1) » Sat Mar 06, 2010 6:28 pm

Post by almightybob »

Look at the title of the thread.
Title wrote:Left 4 Dead Mafia -
Pre-Game
We haven't started yet.
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Post Post #28 (isolation #2) » Sun Mar 07, 2010 12:29 am

Post by almightybob »

Charlie wrote:Hi bob.
Unvote Charlie
:wink:
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Post Post #66 (isolation #3) » Mon Mar 08, 2010 3:05 am

Post by almightybob »

Ooh yay, random wagon on me. Fun fun.


Socrates' idea isn't a bad one, although there's some parts I disagree with. For example, I'd rather give something powerful a gun to someone I consider to be likely Town, than risk wasting it. I suppose it depends if we know the use of each item before it's picked up.

I presume it works like so:
- Director says "Item XXX is up for grabs".
- Everyone who wants in (up to a maximum of 25% of the players) posts
Grab: Item XXX
in the thread.
- They randomly choose etc etc.

Socrates' plan removes the random element to a degree, in that we can choose who goes in for each item drop.
Of course, it only works if you have to make your grab post publicly. If not, people could just say "Yeah OK that plan sounds fair" and then grab it anyway.
@Mod: Can we attempt to grab an item via PM?

DeathNote wrote:So people who go for items are not PRs? Is that good to know, or bad to know?
Not neccessarily. PRs can still go for and use items as far as I'm aware.

Dr.Cyanide wrote:
Grab: SubMachineGun


Alright, don't anybody move! This, is a stickup!

Zombie Lords, show yer'selves.
Grab: the ammo clip.

You forgot this. Now put that down.
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Post Post #72 (isolation #4) » Mon Mar 08, 2010 8:09 am

Post by almightybob »

Ifrinn wrote:4 Votes in what could be considered a single page? Not good. But nothing to get your knickers in a twist about AlmightyBob.
Yeah if any of them had a halfway solid reason, I'd address it, but meh. At L-6, I'm not too concerned.


Dizzy - good catch. DeathNote, why do you need a sample Town PM? Surely the only people who need to see one are scum, everyone else has a Town PM already.
Vote: DeathNote


This looks a lot like a scumslip.
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Post Post #79 (isolation #5) » Mon Mar 08, 2010 10:52 am

Post by almightybob »

Socrates wrote:unvote, vote:Infrin
Im preeeety confident about this vote. I want to sit on why for now. Everyone should look at the way he responded to Charlie very closely.
I looked again, not sure what I'm meant to be seeing though.
Socrates wrote:Don't scum have a sample PM anyway? Or does this mean the mod was going to post a sample PM but forgot?
Well there's a sample Townie role PM in the first post now, but I assume that, at that time, it hadn't been included. Which is my issue - why would a Town player need to request a sample Town role PM?
He's either stupid Town helping the scum by ensuring that they have a template for fakeclaiming, or (far more likely in my opinion) he's scum who didn't realise we'd pick up on the significance of him not already having a Town role PM.

Either way, there's absolutely no pro-Town justification for it.

Nelly632 wrote:I mean I am for whatever you all think is best
Blend moar, scum.
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Post Post #85 (isolation #6) » Mon Mar 08, 2010 1:54 pm

Post by almightybob »

Anon wrote:Almightybob is also scum.
Always helps to have a reason for a position rather than just stating your opinion. Gives me something I can respond to. All I can really say to what you wrote is "NO U".
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Post Post #101 (isolation #7) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 2:23 am

Post by almightybob »

Socrates wrote:Here, let me put everything he said about charlie all together for you.
I still don't get what you're driving at, sorry. I'll do a PBPA of the posts in question, and tell you what I see. Then hopefully you can show me where your interpretation differs from mine.

My comments are bolded and italicised.
Ifrinn wrote:And if one person openly claims to have received a power role you can safely assume they would be chow food if Charlie is right in saying town have no set power roles.
Seems to discourage a roleclaim by stating that anyone who claimed would become a target for scum. Fair enough.


Charlie im not sure on what you are saying here.
Strange because he then goes on to show he does in fact understand the quote.
Coz I get the feeling that items are there to give a powerless town some leverage.
How can you ponder this when we have seen nothing in the way of a flip?
Asking why Charlie is already so confident Town has no PRs. Could potentially be an attempt to stifle discussion, but I don't see the scum benefit.

Refreshing from memory each boss has some kind of ability.
Is it the use of the word "boss" when referring to the scum that's the problem? Because I too had assumed, even before starting the game, that the scum roles would be that of the boss/special infected, eg Hunter, Boomer, Spitter blah blah, whereas the Town roles would be the Survivors and accompanying human cast. Potentially it could be a scumslip in admitting that the scum roles are in fact special infected, but as I said, I'd already assumed as much.

Agreed it is up for debate but i'd be at loathe to say i think town is powerless considering that we would need some defence from them even minimally.
Confusing sentence with the vague pronouns, but I read it as "I'd be loathe to say I think Town is powerless considering that [Town] would need some defence from [scum] even minimally".
are we certain that they ARE any town PRs in this zombie infested wasteland?

Both statements just rubbed me up the wrong way.
Not really sure why, but OK.

If town receives an item tonight and then is killed off by scum the same night. In the scenario in your mind does this mean we'll have to wait another whole day for the item?
Unless we get more than one item a day, that is how I'd imagined the item process going - someone, hopefully a Townie, gets an item. The scum then try to kill off that person to prevent the item being used against them.

Charlie what is your experience with either part of the AI director? Ive checked your wiki but there is no love there.
Asking Charlie if he's ever played with Reck or Kise (the two parts of the AI Director). I don't see the point in asking, but no problem here.
Ifrinn wrote:
Are we certain that they ARE any town PRs in this zombie infested wasteland?
Sorry. I forgot to mention this sounded like rolefishing. Minus town points.
I disagree that it looks like rolefishing. It seems more like setup speculation. It's not specific enough for rolefishing.

So that's what I understood from and saw in those posts. Frankly, I'm not sure what the fuss is about. Perhaps I'm just not thinking with portals, but I don't see anything majorly scummy, apart from the potential "boss" scumslip which I can't honestly call a scumslip since I'd thought the same.
And I'm also a bit suspicious of the wagon, because it allows anyone to jump on saying "oh yeah I totally saw it too, Ifrinn is obvscum" without actually saying
what
they saw, or
why
it was scummy. See Amished's 82 and Anon's 84 for perfect examples of what I mean.

Socrates wrote:Incidentally, Bob, why do you think Ifrinn bothered to tell you to chill about the wagon on you? How does it make you feel about him?
I think he commented on it because it was the biggest wagon at the time, and 4 RVS falling on the same player is a little unusual. Not sure why he told me to chill, because I'd have thought from my reaction that it was pretty obvious I was already chilled/uncaring about RVS votes. Could be buddying I suppose, but if it is, it's a failed attempt. It doesn't really sway my opinion of him either way.

I've never played with a hydra - didn't even know what it was until I checked the wiki - but I suppose it explains the asterisks. Not sure how it will affect gameplay, but guess we'll just have to find out. I suppose it could be harder to detect a hydra scum because they'd have multiple players checking and being careful of scumslips. But it could equally be a Town advantage, like having one extra player to scumhunt.
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Post Post #102 (isolation #8) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 2:26 am

Post by almightybob »

Forgot to include this:
DocPotter wrote:I can think of a few reasons why DN would ask about the VT pm, only one marks him as scum.
Do share.
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Post Post #105 (isolation #9) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 9:23 am

Post by almightybob »

Socrates wrote:Bob: *sigh*
Helpful.
So what has to happen before you actually say what you think is scummy? And what are you hoping to gain from keeping it a secret while still encouraging people to join the wagon?
More importantly, how are we going to get Amished and Anon to prove that they actually thought something was scummy about Ifrinn? As opposed to just going "Oh yeah that's what I meant" when you eventually do post?

If you present an actual case, I'm more than happy to look at it. But just saying "He's scummy just because, and if you can't see why tough" and then still encouraging people to vote... that's not good Town play.
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Post Post #134 (isolation #10) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 2:18 pm

Post by almightybob »

Well if the planning thing is out the window,
Grab: Boomer Bile
.
So it's me, DeathNote, bv310 and Doc Potter.
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Post Post #137 (isolation #11) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 2:40 pm

Post by almightybob »

Anyway, other stuff:

@Nelly's 109: That's why I consider it a scumslip - a mistake made by scum which exposes them as scum.
I certainly can't see any reason for a Townie to request a sample Town PM, not phrased the way he did. It wasn't "Mod, you forgot to post the sample PM", it was "Mod can I see a Town PM".

Socrates wrote:Bob, what do YOU think my intentions are by being obtuse about this?

What do you think about my alignment?
I will answer your questions after you answer mine.
I did you the courtesy of taking the time to outline my thoughts before. The least you can do is show me the same courtesy, by answering my questions when I ask you instead of just replying with the same questions back at me.
DocPotter wrote:Bob: Well, he could just be pointing out a mod error, being a mod himself. Or tweeky Reck/Kise's nose a little. Or just being DN. He has something of a rep
It's not phrased like a mod correction, it's phrased like a request. Second is possible. Third is not an excuse I'm prepared to accept. I play Mafia by the Inverse Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be adequately explained by malice.
DeathNote wrote:By the way, I am still intrigued by this post. What is everyone else's thoughts on this?
Clearly Dr Cyanide has assumed, as I and apparently Ifrinn also did, that the scum in this game will be given roles of the Special Infected from Left 4 Dead and/or Left 4 Dead 2.
Really, to anyone who's ever played the game, this is not a dramatic logical step. In the game, the Special Infected/Boss Infected/Zombie Lords/Whatever-the-fuck-you-want to-call-them are the only playable bad guys, so it makes sense that they will be the bad guys in a L4D-themed Mafia game.

Seriously, am I the only one who signed up to this game because they actually
play
L4D? I would have thought anyone who's played either game would instantly make the connection that the scum's roles will almost definitely be those of the Special Infected.




*preview edit* Jesus Christ Nelly. Don't quote the entire post just for a one-line response, quote the relevant part and say what post it's from. Bloody hell.
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Post Post #140 (isolation #12) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 2:53 pm

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Nelly632 wrote:The purpose of quoting the entire post was so that no one could indicate I was minipulating the post or quoting what I want to be shown from it...

Sorry you are upset about it but clearly Socrates is trying his best to make everyone who is not on board with him as scum so I need everything to be on the up and up...
If someone accuses you of quote-snipping, you can link to the post in question and show you weren't. Now I've got a wall to wade through to find probably 9 or 10 lines that are actually written by you.
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Post Post #153 (isolation #13) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 3:49 pm

Post by almightybob »

Anon wrote:I find it hard that a townie posts stuff like this about his potential lynch.
It wasn't a potential lynch. I was at L-6, not even close. If I had got to L-2 or something off random votes, you're damn right I'd be concerned about that.
But 4 votes in an 18-player game, none with any good reason? Nothing to be concerned about, as Town or scum.


Now why couldn't you just have given that reason with your initial statement? Why do I have to drag an explanation out of everyone these days?
Anon wrote:Deathnote voters, what do you think of this?
I responded to it in 137, where I say "@Nelly's 109".

For completeness:

Scenario 1: DN is smart scum.
He wants a Town PM for future fakeclaims. He would not ask for it publicly, as this would obviously look suspect as it is tantamount to admitting he doesn't have a Town PM of his own.
Scenario 2: DN is stupid scum.
He wants a Town PM for future fakeclaims, so asks for one. He does so publicly because he does not think through the implications of this request.
Scenario 3: DN is stupid Town.
He has no motivation to ask for a sample Town PM, because he realises he already has a Town PM so he doesn't need to see another.
Scenario 4: DN is smart Town.
He has no motivation to ask for a sample Town PM, because he realises that it will not help any Town player. The only people who can possibly benefit from it are the scum. So he does not ask.

Scenario 2 is the only one that follows through.
Anon wrote:Regarding the ifrin, thing, please look Ifrins 69 again but try this time. Basically this request to all of you.
I've already shared my interpretation of post 69, and all I got for it was a sigh. If one of you three insightful geniuses (Anon, Amished, Socrates) feel like descending from Mount Olympus to explain to us mere mortals what was so scummy that we missed, I'm all ears. Until then, I'm done rereading that post.
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Post Post #158 (isolation #14) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 4:01 pm

Post by almightybob »

DeathNote wrote:Why zombie lords in particular? Isn't that what the evil role of another on going game is?
I have no idea. If it is, he shouldn't be referencing another ongoing game.

But being able to read the name of the scumteam in another game says nothing about a person's role in this game.


Anyways, people I'd like to see some goddamn contribution from:

CSL
- 3 posts, no content
DizzyIzzyB13
- 5 posts, hardly any content
xofelf
- 2 posts, no content
Pomegranate
- 7 posts, hardly any content
Fongoid
- 4 posts, hardly any content
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Post Post #160 (isolation #15) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 4:05 pm

Post by almightybob »

OK, seriously. Has anyone here actually played Left 4 Dead?

You didn't know that the main characters (Bill, Francis, Zoey and Louis in Left 4 Dead, Rochelle, Coach, Ellis and Nick in Left 4 Dead 2) are called the Survivors? You didn't know that the main threat are the Special Infected, often referred to as "boss" Infected because they're much rarer than common Infected, have special abilities, and are harder to kill?
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Post Post #164 (isolation #16) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 4:44 pm

Post by almightybob »

I'm just confused why people would join a Mafia game themed around a game they don't play. I assumed everyone in this game would be familiar with L4D.

For future reference, the Survivors are listed above, and the Special Infected are the Boomer, Smoker, Hunter, Witch, and Tank in Left 4 Dead, with the addition of the Charger, Spitter and Jockey in Left 4 Dead 2.
I assume that these are the roles that will be given to the scum, and that Town will have the roles of the Survivors, plus (because I doubt there's only 8 Townies in this game) various other humans that are referenced in the games.



[offtopic]
bv310 wrote:Got Gnome Chomsky in L4D2 along with all the fun stuff. That gnome was a pain in the ass to find.
That achievement recently prompted me to make my first ever YouTube video, a guide to Guardin' Gnome as well as shortcuts and hints to make it easier. It might interest you. Here it is.

[/offtopic]
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Post Post #166 (isolation #17) » Tue Mar 09, 2010 5:15 pm

Post by almightybob »

Is it usual for people to join theme games when they have no knowledge of the theme? I thought the idea was that you join games where you're interested in or already know the theme, or you read up about it prior to the game starting.

Those of you who've never played L4D or L4D2 might find The Left 4 Dead Wiki useful for a bit of background information.

So you know - the Boomer Bile that is currently up for grabs is a one-use item in the game. It attracts all the common Infected (read: minion zombies) to one spot, and can be used to blind Special Infected (read: boss zombies) and cause them to be attacked by their own minions.

So I get the feeling it might translate to something like a one-use roleblock here.
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Post Post #190 (isolation #18) » Thu Mar 11, 2010 12:39 am

Post by almightybob »

Anon wrote:DONT MEGAPOST PEOPLE. Two-three lines is enough!
No they're clearly not, because you never justify a single goddamn thing you say within those 2-3 lines. I will be ignoring this demand, because I like to actually prove a point, instead of just stating my opinion and expecting everyone to accept it.

-------------------------------

Right, my thoughts on Socrates' Top Secret Ultra-Classified Magical Mystery Ifrinn Case, finally released to the public under the Freedom of Information Act.
Socrates wrote:He simultaneously tries to discredit my suggestion by using Charlies posit about power roles while calling Charlie scum for making said suggestion,
all while fishing for more information from Charlie.
If you read the whole paragraph, which you delicately snipped to further your case, you'll see that Charlie's logic is not the only thing Ifrinn mentions to discredit your suggestion.
Ifrinn actually wrote:Socrates. While you are giving me the pro town buzz with your suggestions, as Pomegranite pointed out your plan could be flawed.
What with only 25% of the playerfield being able to grab the items it presents itself with an issue.
And if one person openly claims to have received a power role you can safely assume they would be chow food if Charlie is right in saying town have no set power roles.
And considering you're coming down so hard on Ifrinn for setup speculation:
Socrates wrote:Ifrinn has a greater focus on trying to figure out the power of the town than hunting for scumbags
Socrates wrote:The questions Ifrinn asks have absolutely no weight on Charlie's alignment and serve to only fish for more information about what Charlie knows about the setup.
Socrates wrote:Speculation about the presence of power roles only helps the scum team find said power roles (For instance, Charlie is very obviously a vanilla townie, so the scum know to look elsewhere.) at this time and it is in the town's interest to stamp out such lines of questioning. Deliberately perpetuating this is absurdly pro-scum.
Why did you have nothing to say and no stamping out to do when Charlie raised the issue of setup speculation initially in post 61? Or when DeathNote and Amished speculated about Town PRs getting items in 59 and 60 respectively? Particularly the latter would be a huge indicator to scum about the Town PRs, yet you keep quiet about it. How strange.

Do you know what's
hilarious
? When I was looking back just there to see who first started speculating about the setup, do you know what I found?
Socrates, post 51 (18 posts before Ifrinn first mentioned the setup), wrote:Incidentally, I expect a powerful scum team. Just putting that out there.
So, irony of ironies, the first to speculate on the setup in any way was in fact Socrates.
God I love hypocrisy. It's such good entertainment when it blows up in your face.

Socrates wrote:tl;dr: Ifrinn is AWFULLY curious about why Charlie might doubt the existance of power roles. Also, He calls the suggestion scummy while using it to push his agenda elsewhere.
He's curious because an all-vanilla Town in a game this size would be very unusual, and most people including myself would assume that there would be
some
Town PRs, especially considering the unreliability of the item drop method of acquiring abilities.
He calls the suggestion scummy because he sees it as rolefishing -
"are we sure there's any Town PRs?"
says Charlie,
"Oh yes I'm sure... but I don't want to say why"
replies the Town PR. I can see why he thought that, although I disagree that it was Charlie's intention.
He used it conditionally (IF Charlie is right, your idea fails) and only as
part
of his objection to your ideas, which you conveniently snipped out.


So yeah. Frankly, the case does not impress me. My initial reactions to Ifrinn's post, which I outlined in my 101, are still how I feel about the posts in question. You built that up far too much.


------------------------------


Amished's case - first paragraph WIFOM with a strange definition of "coddling", second more WIFOM with odd conclusion which doesn't logically follow.
Still, at least you didn't say Oh yeah that's what I meant". I wonder if that's because I suspected you would in 105...


------------------------------
Socrates wrote:Items drop back in to play if the person who has it is night killed
Only if they never use it.
Mod, Game-Specific Rule 3, wrote:If the player uses that item even once before dying, the item will expire upon their death.
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Post Post #201 (isolation #19) » Fri Mar 12, 2010 6:45 am

Post by almightybob »

There's too many potential flavour interpretations of Boomer Bile for it to be useful in that sense. It could be a vig, a roleblock, a redirect, a bus drive, a post restriction (although I don't see how that would be a pro-Town use), an investigation (enemies hit by Boomer Bile show up with purple outlines, whereas teammates cannot be hit by the Bile)...

I don't think your plan will work for the Boomer Bile Pome. It might work for different items with a more obvious use (e.g. shotgun) but there's too many flavour interpretations for this one.
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Post Post #225 (isolation #20) » Sun Mar 14, 2010 2:19 am

Post by almightybob »

Charlie wrote:I asked myself after posting that, :"Is this scummy?" and I found myself answering "No."
You check your own posts to see if they're scummy? Afraid you'll let something slip?


Ifrinn wrote:Missed the bandwagoning though.
Funny, you seemed perfectly aware of it at the time.
Ifrinn wrote:4 Votes in what could be considered a single page? Not good. But nothing to get your knickers in a twist about AlmightyBob.
Explain please.



thatguy wrote:I hate to be 'that guy'
I lol'd.
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Post Post #229 (isolation #21) » Mon Mar 15, 2010 4:23 am

Post by almightybob »

Ifrinn wrote:Sated?
Not really. That seems like a pretty convoluted explanation, and it doesn't really fit in with the original post. It seems pretty clear to me from the initial post that you were saying "I didn't see the bandwagoning, good point Tar, buddy buddy buddy". I'm not sure I buy your excuse.
Charlie wrote:Note to self: don't post that I check my own post for scuminess.
Is that your only defence against this point?
DizzyIzzyB13 wrote:Sigh. This game is irritating so far.
If people just post things like that, it will be. You said in your last post that you'd definitely be back up to speed by the weekend. Share your thoughts.
Do you think that what Charlie said is a scumslip?
What is your response to DocPotter's suggestion in post 205 that your noting of DN's request for a sample PM was a well-timed deflection?
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Post Post #231 (isolation #22) » Mon Mar 15, 2010 5:07 am

Post by almightybob »

Good. Now go find other things that have happened and comment on them. I really don't want to have to drag responses out of everyone all the way through this game like I've had to in my most recent few games.
almightybob wrote:Anyways, people I'd like to see some goddamn contribution from:

CSL
- 3 posts, no content
Replaced by
Glork
who still hasn't shown his/her face
DizzyIzzyB13
- 5 posts, hardly any content
Has resurfaced
xofelf
-
2 posts, no content
, still hasn't done a goddamn thing all game
Pomegranate
- 7 posts, hardly any content
Resurfaced for a while
Fongoid
-
4 posts, hardly any content
, still not impressed

Mod
, prods on xofelf (7 days without posting) and Fongoid (5 days)? Plus there's bound to be others. Plus you forgot to note Glork replacing CSL in the first post.
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Post Post #257 (isolation #23) » Wed Mar 17, 2010 2:44 am

Post by almightybob »

thatguy00 wrote:I voted for Ifrinn because he wants to line people up to take an item
That was Socrates' suggestion in Post 51.
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Post Post #268 (isolation #24) » Wed Mar 17, 2010 8:38 am

Post by almightybob »

Glork wrote:Also, it should go without saying that nobody should try to grab more than one item in a given day. If they can't use both items in the same night, and they get nightkilled, we probably lose the unused item.
Wrong. The unused item would be returned to the Town, as per Rule 3.

And I see I've been ninja'd by Charlie. Oh well.
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Post Post #272 (isolation #25) » Wed Mar 17, 2010 9:35 am

Post by almightybob »

Socrates wrote:The pressure on TG is interesting, but he dropped one of the secret town tells I was looking for earlier, though it was admittedly a weak one.
What is it with you and expecting Town to trust you about things you won't tell us?

What do you think of the point I brought up in post 257? Thatguy claims he is voting Ifrinn for lining up people to grab items, when in fact it was you that did that, back in post 51. So he's voting Ifrinn for a reason that's incorrect. Is that on your secret Town tell list?
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Post Post #276 (isolation #26) » Wed Mar 17, 2010 10:13 am

Post by almightybob »

Socrates wrote:Is being wrong a scumtell?

(.oN :rewsnA)
Is trying to pass incorrect information off as the truth a scumtell?

(.seY :rewsnA)
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Post Post #278 (isolation #27) » Wed Mar 17, 2010 10:32 am

Post by almightybob »

Socrates wrote:What makes you think Thatguy was being disingenuous about his reasoning, instead of simply wrong?
It's on my secret list.
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Post Post #280 (isolation #28) » Wed Mar 17, 2010 11:07 am

Post by almightybob »

How dare you question the authority of my secret list! Just obey and think whatever my secret list tells you to think!







OK no, you're right. It's not on my secret list. I said that to illustrate how straight-up retarded the "secret list" line is.


Regarding the actual question - I think thatguy is being disingenuous because if a certain event is your only reason for voting someone (as it certainly seems to be from isoing thatguy), it is extremely difficult to make a mistake regarding who said that thing.
For example, look at when thatguy casts the vote, in post 189.
thatguy wrote:Ok, Soc.
I've read the entire thread over
and, yes, regarding post 69, I began to ponder over Ifrinn myself.
So he reads the entire thread (all 8 pages at this stage). You'd think he'd have an even better idea of who said what. But no. He accuses Ifrinn of attempting to push scumbuddies into the item grab in post 69. He's pretty clear that it's post 69 which has prompted this opinion, clearly referring to where Ifrinn suggests we should nominate a few people.

Now look at what Ifrinn says again in 69.
Ifrinn wrote:Re: a plan.
Right there, first line of the offending paragraph. If you'd read this even once, it would be obvious that Ifrinn is responding to an idea already proposed by someone else. 30 seconds of checking shows it's Socrates. If you'd "reread the entire thread over" this should be doubly obvious.

But no, to thatguy the concept of choosing who goes in for items was spawned (pun intended) by Ifrinn, and it's a huge enough reason to lay down the vote.


So that is why I think it's disingenuous, rather than a mistake.
Also, remember the Inverse Hanlon's Razor - never attribute to stupidity that which can be adequately explained by malice. If we let everyone off every time we catch them because they say "oh soz mistaek" Town will lose every time.


@Thatguy
, since I've shown that your reason for voting Ifrinn is, in fact, a case of mistaken identity, I take it that you'll be voting Socrates now, since this plan business is such an epic scumtell in your eyes? Remember this:
Thatguy, post 247, wrote:I made it pretty clear I'm not down for the idea of lining people up for a specific item.
Well your man for that is Socrates.
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Post Post #289 (isolation #29) » Thu Mar 18, 2010 5:37 am

Post by almightybob »

I don't know, because it's only recently that I've realised that I've been subconsciously applying it. I suppose I could go back to previous games and look for times when I've used it without realising, but frankly that's a lot of effort. Whereas if I consciously start using it now, I can measure its effectiveness nore clearly.

I've started consciously using it since I heard of the official name for it, and realised the consequences of just applying Hanlon's Razor instead of the Inverse. In Mafia, giving people the benefit of the doubt too often will lead to a scum win. If you catch someone, don't let them off the hook with the "oh oops honest mistake" line.

In RL, Hanlon's Razor is a better way to conduct your life. It's more pleasant and friendly. In Mafia, I prefer the Inverse.
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Post Post #291 (isolation #30) » Thu Mar 18, 2010 9:27 am

Post by almightybob »

DeathNote wrote:Does anyone else honestly think I am scummy for my PM request now?
Look at it from my point of view.

DizzyIzzy first drew attention to your request in post 68, page 3.
You immediately acknowledged her vote in post 70.
Ifrinn and myself then both asked why a Townie would need a sample role PM, when they should already have a Town PM. This was in posts 71 and 72 respectively.
You then posted in post 78 some meta excuse about how you made a PM mistake before as Town.
You then posted again in post 88 saying "I tend to just reek of scum".
thatguy then joined the wagon in post 89, and Charlie in post 99.
You then grabbed for the Boomer Bile in post 121, and then brought up an old question about Dr Cyanide's post in 124.
Then comes a response about why you didn't want to wait to get the Boomer Bile in post 129, then again about Cyanide's post in 152.

Then, finally, you post your explanation in post 156, page 7.

So how am I supposed to believe, DN, that you weren't just stalling for time until you could think of a passable excuse?

It took you nearly 100 posts to give your explanation after it was first brought to the Town's attention.
You weren't inactive because you posted 6 times before giving the reason, and you'd clearly read the Town's concerns and knew what they were about because you immediately gave your meta excuse in post 78.
If that really was your initial reason for asking for a Town PM, why did it take you so long to provide it, and why did you post 6 times before doing so? Why did you first attempt to provide a meta defence for your actions, instead of just giving us your "real" reason straight off?


Can you see why I think your excuse is bullshit?
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Post Post #293 (isolation #31) » Thu Mar 18, 2010 12:05 pm

Post by almightybob »

DeathNote wrote:Wouldn't me instantly giving a defensive stance be consider scummy?
A defensive stance, exactly like what you did with "I just always reek of scum"? Yes. A reasoned explanation? No. If you had quickly given a reasonable explanation, I would have been more likely to accept it as true, because you would have had less time to think up a fake explanation.
DeathNote wrote:There was little reason for me to be concearned but as more and more people began to question my request as scum, then I was forced to give reasoning.
The last vote to be placed against you before your reason was Charlie in post 99. By this point it was pretty obvious that a lot of people thought it was suspicious - 4 people placed votes against you in the space of one page.
If you actually explained because of pressure, why didn't you explain then? Why did you still wait another 50+ posts? The pressure was all there from early on.

Seems likely to me that scum-you was finally forced into giving an explanation because of the pressure, because you thought we wouldn't give up until you did.
DeathNote wrote:You do understand that by me claiming as I did means that limits scum targets for town PR? Why would I want to do that? That is why I post poned from giving my reasoning.
If you are Town, then your initial request for a Town role PM was the post that limits PR targets. That was the post that marked you as VT or scum, not your eventual explanation.
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Post Post #341 (isolation #32) » Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:27 pm

Post by almightybob »

What are you waiting for? You're not going to get proof on D1.

14 pages and you still don't have any read worth laying a vote on?
Sounds more like fencesitting to me.
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Post Post #342 (isolation #33) » Mon Mar 22, 2010 8:31 pm

Post by almightybob »

thatguy00 wrote:I'm going to take another HARD detailed look over everything again and take some notes.

Expect something from me very soon.
Progress on this?
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Post Post #351 (isolation #34) » Tue Mar 23, 2010 6:06 am

Post by almightybob »

jmj wrote:Accuse me of fencesitting all you want, but as I have stated before in not just this game, but my completed games, I won't vote unless I am 100% confident that the person I am voting for is scum.
The only time I would ever be 100% confident someone was scum was if I was a sane cop with a guilty on them. You should never be 100% certain someone is scum in any other situation, because for anything else there could always be another Town explanation, however incredibly unlikely. Mafia is not a game of 100% certainty.

As Dizzy said, votes apply pressure which can cause people to slip up. If you never vote without 100% certainty, your pressure and questioning is empty and meaningless.



In any event, I can demonstrate that you just lied about your meta.

You vote without 100% certainty often and repeatedly in Newbie 878. Most obviously in the RVS, but then several times throughout the thread you vote while obviously not being completely sure of it.
You again vote for Zachrulez without 100% certainty in Open 196. You were clearly not 100% certain about this vote because you reread and retracted that vote a very short time later.
Both times you were a Vanilla Townie, and both times you cast votes without complete certainty.


Did you think nobody would check?
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Post Post #353 (isolation #35) » Tue Mar 23, 2010 7:06 am

Post by almightybob »

Glork wrote:I've only skimmed over the last couple of pages, but am willing to jump this wagon.
You're jumping on a wagon you've only skimmed? :shock:
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Post Post #355 (isolation #36) » Tue Mar 23, 2010 8:18 am

Post by almightybob »

Tar wrote:- Socrates is bugging me, but there's one obvious possible explanation for most of his behavior that I can't discount at this time.
And that explanation is?
Tar wrote:- Glork's early play reads strongly of Glork-town. Good to know!
What do you make of his post 352?

Tar wrote:1) What's missing from these posts? Scumhunting, that's what - bv's posts consist almost entirely of Ifrinn defense, item/setup speculation, and a completely unexplained vote ( :!: ) on DeathNote, which he has NEVER explained or taken off.

2) BV's posting re: Ifrinn early on reads strongly of scum defending to me. (Note to self: Look over Ifrinn more closely ASAP.)

3) What the hell is that comment about activity doing in bv's posts? That's the kind of useless comment I STRONGLY associate with scum (especially IIoA-scum).
1) Agreed about the lack of scumhunting, although I think your third quote there contains his explanation for his DN vote. He seems to imply it was a pressure vote - not the strongest reason, but still not quite completely unexplained.

2) I'll need to go back and look over this. I can't say it struck me at the time - I was more concerned with what I felt was a very weak case on Ifrinn, being horribly pushed by people who claimed to agree with a case that hadn't been posted.

3) I didn't think much of it, but fair enough. I'll defer to your experience on that point. So is it all useless comments, or just a specific type of useless comment?
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Post Post #359 (isolation #37) » Tue Mar 23, 2010 1:52 pm

Post by almightybob »

Glork wrote:Plus, nobody seems to care that Izzy is scum, and I'm currently too dis-interested to make a focused case.
Yep, I don't care when you just state she's scum. If you put together a case, then I'll start to care.
Glork wrote:P.S., DeathNote is still protown and you really need to stop voting for him.
Well the wagon is going nowhere fast. Once I decide where I'd rather have my vote I'll vote for that person. I don't see that it matters much whether I unvote in the meantime or just leave it where it is though.
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Post Post #362 (isolation #38) » Tue Mar 23, 2010 7:05 pm

Post by almightybob »

jmj wrote:I was 100% confident in my votes at the time. Every single one of my votes was placed witch 100% confidence
You were 100% confident that your RVS vote was on scum?
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Post Post #367 (isolation #39) » Tue Mar 23, 2010 7:45 pm

Post by almightybob »

jmj3000 wrote:ARe you ever 100% confident that your RVS vote is on scum?
I'm never 100% confident in any of my votes, because I always acknowledge the possibility that I might be wrong.
Unless of course I am a sane cop with a guilty result in a setup with no millers or framers or redirecters, then I would be 100% confident.
jmj wrote:Y'all know my suspects, y'all have the basics of my cases against them
Well, no. We know your suspects, yes. You told us them in post 340. Socrates, then DeathNote, then bv/Charlie/Dizzy.
What we don't have is your cases against them.

For Socrates, you say it's because he asked the mod questions at the start of the game. You never show why scum would be more likely to do this than Town.
For DN, you go with the flow and say it's for the PM request.
For bv/Charlie/Dizzy, all you say is that they've "done things that are scummy", but you never tell us what those things are or why they're scummy.

So no, we don't have the basics of your cases against them.
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Post Post #377 (isolation #40) » Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:03 am

Post by almightybob »

Have you ever replaced into a game jmj? It it impossible to know what the person you replaced was thinking. The fact that you accept "he wasn't" as a response from dramonic shows how ultimately pointless this is. Just post your cases and quit stalling.

Unvote, vote: jmj3000
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Post Post #380 (isolation #41) » Wed Mar 24, 2010 4:42 am

Post by almightybob »

And why can't you post your cases while we wait for that information?
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Post Post #391 (isolation #42) » Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:48 pm

Post by almightybob »

Tarhalindur wrote:I will not elaborate at this time.
OK, whatever. I think I made my feelings about this kind of thing clear when Socrates did this earlier, but I can't be bothered going through it all again.
Tar wrote:1) If it was a pressure vote, I'd expect him to ACTUALLY PUT PRESSURE on DeathNote - a vote isn't enough to make a pressure vote clear.

2) I await your thoughts with bated breath.

Also on the lines of "reads strongly of scum defense"... now I have to reread YOU. You're effectively defending both Ifrinn and bv310 (the former subtely through that "what I felt was a very weak case on Ifrinn") - two players who pinged my "these players are scumbuddies" radar during my second read - and your tone here is very, very close to what I noticed from bv310 in the early game.

FoS: almightybob


3) More of a gut "know it when I see it", probably based on how it doesn't really advance the game. Why make that post as Town?
1) True. I didn't say it was at all a good reason, I was only pointing out that he did provide a semblance of a reason. I agree that it didn't follow through.

2) Oops, forgot to do this. Will get on it.

But I disagree with 2 things in that paragraph.
Firstly, I was neither defending nor attacking bv. All I said was I didn't notice his scumminess at the time. It was meant as a comment on my play rather than any statement about bv's.
Secondly, I was not defending Ifrinn subtly, I was pretty vocal and obvious at the time about my criticism of the Ifrinn case - see post 190 for my response to it.

3) Fair enough.
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Post Post #392 (isolation #43) » Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:49 pm

Post by almightybob »

bv310 wrote:I was worried about my activity level because I tend to get called out for lurking a lot.
Most ironic post evar?
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Post Post #438 (isolation #44) » Sat Mar 27, 2010 5:03 am

Post by almightybob »

Sorry guys, been slacking from MS a bit recently. Important uni exams coming up, which I realised a few days ago I am woefully underprepared for :S

Anyway, where was I...


Ah yes. I promised Tar I'd reread bv's defence of Ifrinn early D1, because Tar said it read to him like a scum defence.
I went back and looked, and I have to say Tar, I don't really see where you're going with that. As far as I can tell, bv hardly said anything about the early Ifrinn case. As far as I can see he only talks about that wagon once, and he's mainly attacking Socrates' withholding information, which I feel was a valid complaint.

I don't see the scum defence there. If anything it's more eyebrow-raising that he had nothing to say about the Ifrinn wagon other than that, but uber-lurking seems to be the most we can expect from bv.

So I don't think Tar's point against bv is that great. I do however agree with many of the points against him in Izzy's megapost 436. More on that later.
Thatguy wrote:I'm voting for jmj

It's day one, nobody has any help from a write up, or any information whatsoever, so we go by how someone reads, and in my eyes, it jmj. I'm not a particular fan of day one, and I find it somewhat difficult to make my choice. So I'm going with my gut instinct, jmj.
So what happened to setup speculation being a huge scumtell thatguy? Remember how you were willing to vote Ifrinn based solely on that? How come you're not voting Socrates?

DeathNote wrote:
Vote: almightybob


Deadline is in three days. Lets get something done.
I actually laughed. Please play more anti-Town, I'm intrigued to see how far you can take it.
Starbuck wrote:How ironic that you ask for a case when you refuse to give any.
QFT.


Dizzy's megapost, although extremely long, does raise good points against bv. I know the tendency with walls is to think "nah can't be arsed" but I do encourage you guys to read it, it's goodposting.
Although for future reference Dizzy, if you preview your post and see it's a wall, please cut down on the quotes to reduce the overall length. EG where you quote Furry's entire post just to say the case is weak - just say "Furry's <post number> case is weak".

Also, I disagree with part of your final conclusion. jmj hasn't been useful. He's just been marginally less useless than bv. I would still be happy with a jmj lynch today.
bv310 wrote:
Grab: Dual Pistols
I really, really don't like this. bv is emphatically NOT the kind of player I want having guns in his hands.


Seriously, that is just shockingly scummy. Your horrific lurking is causing so many players to question your alignment, but you're still keeping close enough track of the game to be able to go in for items? No. Just no.

Unvote, vote: bv310


Frankly, I would be happy to lynch bv just in case he got the guns, so that they will return to the Town since he won't get an opportunity to use them.
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Post Post #444 (isolation #45) » Sat Mar 27, 2010 6:05 am

Post by almightybob »

I don't think he's Town. I think he's scum.
My understanding is that scum will be able to destroy the item at Night. Therefore if we lynched the winning scum during the day, they would not have opportunity to destroy it and the item would revert to Town.

Honestly, it wasn't really a serious suggestion. Killing anyone to get items back at this stage wouldn't work, because it could be anyone of the 4 that has it.

Although one part of it was true - I would not entrust Town-bv with guns.

Izzy wrote:Oh God, I *loathe* that posting style. It makes it even less likely that people are going to read it, or not what you're talking about because it adds so muhc time and effort that quoting avoids. It's just unfortunate that I got behind enough to need to post something lthat long.
I would much rather read something with post numbers than have to read a 30-line post I've already read, just to see the context for a 1-line response.
Maybe that's just me though, I have a fairly good memory so if someone just says "your case on me in post XXX is crap" I'll usually either remember the case or be happy to take the 30 seconds to look it up.
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Post Post #447 (isolation #46) » Sat Mar 27, 2010 8:12 am

Post by almightybob »

Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:But then he still wouldn't get to use the item, which is what you said. If that was your understanding of the set-up, why didn't you say "before he gets to destroy them"?
Because that sentence was meant in the hypothetical situation that bv is Town. Reading it again now, I realise I may not have conveyed that very clearly.
As I was writing it I was thinking to myself "What if bv IS Town and he has the guns now? Do I trust Town-bv to do more good than harm with them?". The answer is no.
SPS wrote:(why would destroying an item be a night action?)
When I said scum destroy items at Night, I didn't mean like it would be a deliberate Night action, like they would have to PM the mod "Destroy: Item". I meant that usually all scum actions take place at Night, like talking and placing kill orders etc. So I assumed that if a scum takes an item into the Night phase, it is auto-destroyed. It doesn't seem from the rules as if they get any choice to keep the item.

It's just something I automatically assumed when I read the rules.
bv310 wrote:I'm not included in the item grab, I don't think. I got the Bile, so I don't know if I'm allowed to get the guns too.
-.- So much for nobody claiming who gets which item.
Just in case -
Grab: Double Pistols
.

Anyway, I didn't get the Bile, so from my point of view this claim holds up. Can the other people who went in confirm that they didn't get it?
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Post Post #453 (isolation #47) » Sat Mar 27, 2010 8:47 am

Post by almightybob »

Glork wrote:EBWOP: BV, if you are protown and don't get lynched today, DO NOT USE ANY ITEMS YOU RECIEVE. If you're protown, there is a VERY LARGE CHANCE that the scums will (at least try to) kill you, destroying any item you use tonight.
QFT.
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Post Post #505 (isolation #48) » Mon Mar 29, 2010 9:38 am

Post by almightybob »

DizzyIzzyB13 wrote:Explain your opinions on lynching claimed power roles.
Whoa whoa whoa. Where did I miss bv claiming a power role?
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Post Post #510 (isolation #49) » Mon Mar 29, 2010 10:00 am

Post by almightybob »

Starbuck wrote:Here
Izzy wrote:Items confer abilities for the remainder of the game. bv has claimed posession of an item. This means bv has claimed to have an ability for the length of the game (while he's alive). What else do you think he is?
Oh. I thought you meant he'd claimed that his actual role was a power one, as in what he got in his role PM.

Standard practice when someone claims a PR is to check for a counter-claim, and lynch the liar if there is one. Since bv already claimed his role unprompted, we might as well check now. This will be especially easy in this situation because we know the only people who could counterclaim are me, DN and DocPotter.

I didn't get the Bile.
DN/DocPotter?
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Post Post #559 (isolation #50) » Mon Mar 29, 2010 10:39 pm

Post by almightybob »

Regarding jmj's claim - the flavour matches the character of Jimmy Gibbs Jr.

I wouldn't be opposed to a mass nameclaim, although I'm not entirely sure it will help us.
As people have said, the scum may very well have been given safeclaims, and if they were those safeclaims could just as easily be the main Survivors as they could support characters. I don't think I would trust scumhunting based on the nameclaim, it's just faulty logic.
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Post Post #566 (isolation #51) » Tue Mar 30, 2010 12:32 pm

Post by almightybob »

Wait wait wait.

jmj gets to L-1, claims what is essentially Vanilla Townie, and everyone believes it and doesn't want to lynch anymore?
Did I miss something? At what point did people start abandoning wagons because of a VT claim?
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Post Post #569 (isolation #52) » Tue Mar 30, 2010 12:46 pm

Post by almightybob »

Furry wrote:What you missed is that he is town.
I certainly did miss that. What startling evidence convinced everyone of this?
Furry wrote:Have you never seen a wagon fall off a VT claim before?
Not without some other intervening factor, no. I wouldn't ask for a claim unless I was happy to lynch that person. I only ask for the claim to check that I'm not going to accidentally lynch a Town PR. A VT claim would never sway me, I work under the assumption that everyone will claim VT anyway.
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Post Post #573 (isolation #53) » Tue Mar 30, 2010 12:59 pm

Post by almightybob »

Glork wrote:That's funny, because only ONE person unvoted, and Furry was never voting for JMJ to begin with. So how did "everybody" jump off the wagon?
Fair enough.
Why did a VT claim suddenly convince you to leave the jmj wagon?
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Post Post #574 (isolation #54) » Tue Mar 30, 2010 1:11 pm

Post by almightybob »

Furry wrote:His play
Please point to some aspect of his play that you feel is pro-Town. Because as far as I can see, all he's done is stall all game and then regurgitate arguments made by other people.
Furry wrote:the fact that he got wagoned over others
So if three people all do something scummy, and one person gets wagoned over the other two, that person is likely Town? What if after that wagon, the second person gets wagoned? Are they likely Town? What if the third person then gets wagoned?
You end up saying all three people who did something scummy are Town.
Not buying that logic.
Furry wrote:I can even argue the "doomed VT" claim if I feel like it
What's that?
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Post Post #579 (isolation #55) » Tue Mar 30, 2010 1:44 pm

Post by almightybob »

I'll need to read that a few times, I didn't quite follow it.
Furry wrote:Unvote him now.
I'm not on his wagon. I just don't see why this VT claim could possibly have swayed anyone. I'm very interested in Glork's reasoning.


Also, the part I mostly wanted an answer to was
almightybob wrote: Please point to some aspect of his play that you feel is pro-Town. Because as far as I can see, all he's done is stall all game and then regurgitate arguments made by other people.
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Post Post #580 (isolation #56) » Tue Mar 30, 2010 1:46 pm

Post by almightybob »

Furry wrote:AMB - Why arent you voting jmj?
Because I felt that bv was a better lynch, so I moved my vote to him.
Hey wait - if your theory only applies to the first person to be wagoned for a particular reason, then we can have a bv lynch! Right?
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Post Post #583 (isolation #57) » Tue Mar 30, 2010 2:06 pm

Post by almightybob »

DizzyIzzyB13 wrote:No. bv is a claimed power role.
-.-
Note to self - request sarcasm tags from mith.
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Post Post #606 (isolation #58) » Wed Mar 31, 2010 1:04 am

Post by almightybob »

DocPotter, bv claimed he got the Boomer Bile. Both myself and DN have said that we did not get it. You are the only person who can counterclaim him now. Do you wish to do so?
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Post Post #607 (isolation #59) » Wed Mar 31, 2010 1:25 am

Post by almightybob »

Furry wrote:Why arent you voting jmj? You havent answered this yet
Why, do you want me to vote for him?

I'm not currently voting for him because:
1) I'm waiting to see if DocPotter counterclaims bv for the Bile or not before I move my vote anywhere
2) I'm waiting for you to satisfactorily answer the following question (this will be the third time of me asking you):
almightybob, post 579, wrote: Also, the part I mostly wanted an answer to was
almightybob, post 574, wrote: Please point to some aspect of his play that you feel is pro-Town. Because as far as I can see, all he's done is stall all game and then regurgitate arguments made by other people.
If you can demonstrate to me why you think he's Town, I
might
not vote for him. OTOH, deadline is tomorrow so I might vote him anyway.

Glork wrote:Now I know I said the scums very likely have fakeclaims, but my gut just says that the claim rings true. I have no "reasoning" behind it.
I'm sure you can imagine why I wouldn't be impressed by that. You were voting him before his claim, so presumably you thought he was scum then. There's nothing in the claim that would make me change my mind.


Also,
@Mod: Please note I will be V/LA from 2nd - 7th April, going skiiing :D
. I may be able to get online maybe once or twice during this time, but it's unlikely.
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Post Post #611 (isolation #60) » Wed Mar 31, 2010 3:06 am

Post by almightybob »

Starbuck:
KISE & RECK's UNIVERSAL LAWS wrote: 1.
VOTING:
[...] If no one reaches the needed votes for a lynch by the time of deadline, there will be no lynch at all that day.
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Post Post #617 (isolation #61) » Wed Mar 31, 2010 6:48 am

Post by almightybob »

Does anyone have meta knowledge of whether Glork reacting like a dickhead is a Town, scum or nulltell for him?
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Post Post #619 (isolation #62) » Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:31 am

Post by almightybob »

The AI Director wrote:- Since Ifrinn is not getting replaced,
deadline is still in three hours
.

Unvote, vote: jmj3000
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Post Post #629 (isolation #63) » Wed Mar 31, 2010 10:52 am

Post by almightybob »

I don't rate the chances of this town running up a lynch from a standing start in 24 hours. That's 2, when it's 10 to lynch. jmj is a far more feasible wagon.
Plus, I honestly can't remember anyone posting a case on Amished or saying why they think he's a good lynch. Did I just not see it? If someone did post one, please link me.


@Furry:

*headdesk*
That post is full of such goddamn fail. Not one part of it says why I'm scum.
Just look at the fact that EVERYONE is just going "hur hur, yeah its deadline lets lynch him"!
[/quote]@Anyone who thinks jmj might not be scum - Please vote almightybob [/quote]
Hypocrisy! Woo!
Just look at the lack of ANYONE but me trying hard to get another wagon going!
So what you're saying is... the minority is having trouble swaying the majority? Remind me please, who are the minority and who are the majority, scum or Town?
Yeah ok, ive said why he is town a few times.
Please point those times out, because I just ISOed you and I couldn't spot them. All I could find was "jmj is Town, I'm super serial".
The case on him is amazingly weak
He's lurked, he's regurgitated other people's arguments and not produced any original thought or suspicions of his own, he's repeatedly stalled and refused to provide cases when pressured. He's also refused to vote "until I'm 100% confident".
You yourself
said refusal to vote was anti-Town play.
his actions scream town
You just keep saying this over and over, provide some goddamn examples.
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Post Post #633 (isolation #64) » Wed Mar 31, 2010 11:33 am

Post by almightybob »

-.-

When I say "provide examples", I mean things like
Building A Case 101 wrote:Look at <post X>. He shows his Towniness here because of <reason>. <reason> is a Townie thing to do because <second reason>.
You do not do that, you just say "His play seems Town" over and over until you can say "no guys I've been pushing against the lynch really hard!".
If you're the only one pushing against the lynch, it could well be because your reasons for doing so are shit and/or nonexistent.
You may want to stop implying he is scum then.
Why would I do that when I think it's likely that he is scum?
This "case" applies to a whole lot of players. Why are we lynching jmj and not thatguy, dramonic or pom if they have done most of these things as well?
Lol at tabloid quote marks.
Because it's one day till deadline, and picking one of them would be just as arbitrary as picking jmj has been. I'll be happy to look at them tomorrow, but today I want to lynch him.
Besides, I don't think that case applies quite so well to them as it does to jmj. I'm sure I remember Pom for one coming up with some decent stuff on her own.
I (somewhat) hate to pull an experience card
Then don't do it. It adds nothing to the case, plus it relies on a highly subjective decision on the labelling of "strong" players.
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Post Post #634 (isolation #65) » Wed Mar 31, 2010 11:45 am

Post by almightybob »

DizzyIzzyB13 wrote:As far as I can tell, this is Furry's "jmj is town" case in full. Please point out if I've missed any posts of him making arguments relevent to this issue.
First quote - never provides any examples, so we have no idea where these explained thoughts and suspicions were. However, from context I suspect she means this post. It's the first time jmj really says anything about who he suspects, and if you'll look closely you'll notice that it's just the regurgitated thoughts and suspicions of what everyone else had said up till that point. I believe Socrates described jmj's suspect list as "the definition of safe".

Second quote - not a post about why jmj is Town, rather a post about why bv is scum.

Third quote - exactly what I've described: saying jmj is Town with no justification apart from a vague reference to his play.

Fourth quote - I disagree with this assertion.

Fifth quote - just a meta discussion, nothing specific to jmj being Town in it.

So yeah.



@people on my wagon: Please give me a case to respond to. Nobody has said why I'm likely scum other than it's not a jmj wagon.
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Post Post #768 (isolation #66) » Wed Apr 07, 2010 3:33 am

Post by almightybob »

Hey guys, just to say I'm
back from my V/LA
. My thighs are killing me, haven't been skiing for far too long.

Will try to catch up and give my thoughts over the next day or so.
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Post Post #809 (isolation #67) » Fri Apr 09, 2010 1:20 am

Post by almightybob »

Right, sorry this took longer than expected.
Thoughts on D2 so far:

dram - why did you vote for Izzy in 709 when you were expressing suspicion of Starbuck? The vote against Izzy seems to just come from nowhere.
Charlie wrote:I'm interested in a name claim as I believe it would be more helpful to town than to scum.

[...]

almightybob, what do you think?
Why me specifically?
Anyway, considering that we now know there is a theme link between Socrates' role and his name - Keith being a Jack of All Trades fits the character of Keith in L4D2, who seems capable of anything according to Ellis - I would be more reluctant to have a mass nameclaim now. It could lead a scum with theme knowledge to any other PRs we may have.
As Amished later points out, you seem to realise this, so I'm not sure why you would still want a nameclaim.


SPS - you're talking out your ass here. If you're just going to blindly trust Glork because he's Town, I take it you now think I'm Town because he did (in complete opposition to your view on D1)?
As far as I can see, not once have you addressed Glork's actual case on Amished. You've not said which parts you agree with, which parts you disagree with. You didn't say anything of your own about why Amished is likely to be scum other than some nice night-kill WIFOM in your vote and a few subsequent posts.
Yesterday you said you found Glork's arguments unconvincing, and that you thought Socrates' were better. Glork's argument hasn't changed since he flipped. If it was unconvincing then, it should still be unconvincing now.
In fact, you don't even seem to care about the merits or otherwise of Glork's case. You admit here that it's not his case that made you suspect Amished, but purely the fact that it was Glork making it.

That's weak scumhunting on your part.
Furry wrote:We need flavor experts in here since what the item does fails to make sense to me.
Redirect was one of the possibilities I mentioned when we were discussing it. If you are being attacked by the horde, the Boomer Bile will redirect them away from you. So yes, it does make some sense theory-wise.


Charlie - in post 769 you manage to talk for ages without actually saying much.

Your statement that bv is telling the truth either way doesn't hold up. Sure, scum are told what the item does. But if scum-bv got the Boomer Bile and it was a Cop investigation, they could easily lie and say it was something else, so that they don't have to provide solid evidence which can later be used to expose their lies.
In your "nameclaims won't out Town PRs" example scenario, you list 3 different Town PRs that Keith could be. Even if a nameclaim doesn't tell the scum
exactly
what PR a player has, it would still lead them to the likely PRs to target for their kills.
And again, your idea that the 8 core survivors are a more trustworthy claim makes no sense. In a theory game, if a nameclaim makes it obvious who is Town and who is scum, the game setup is broken. They should be largely unrelated. I think it's likely that at least one of the 8 Survivors is a fakeclaim.


Not really seeing the fake-buddying dramonic is accusing Starbuck of.

jmj wrote:Grab: Medkit

Also, I am rereading from the start of day 2, I will post comments on what has happened so far afterwards.
GODDAMNIT >.<

See,
this
is the kind of bullshit that makes me think jmj is scum. He does absolutely nothing, no scumhunting of any form. But he conveniently pops up for
his
first
ONLY post of D2
to go in for the Medkit within half an hour of it becoming available. Come
on
. This is shocking active lurking.


Izzy-Furry debate is interesting. I will need to reread it a couple of times to see any emerging reads.
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Post Post #822 (isolation #68) » Sat Apr 10, 2010 9:20 am

Post by almightybob »

Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:I still suspect you, although less so.
Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:Gut reads and the like are by their very nature not convincing. Now that I don't have to worry about Glrok's alignment, I'm quite willing to take him at face value.
Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:I trust Glrok because he's a good scumhunter and now I don't have to worry about his alignment.
Glork wrote:I have liked bob's posting so far. Not the activity thing (which never hurts, but isn't really a protown tell), but something resonates well with his posts so far. "
Protown by gut
," I suppose.
Now explain why you still suspect me despite Glork's gut, but are using the opposite logic to push a case on Amished.
You're ignoring his gut when it suits you to maintain suspicion on me, but using it as the centrepiece of your suspicion on Amished when that's more convenient.
SPS wrote:The problem with NK analysis is that's hard to reverse- engineer the scum's motivations, not WIFOM. I don't believe I've seen a single instance of the latter in all the games I've played.
Here.

Charlie wrote:almightybob, it doesn't make sense that scum would fake claim what the item does
Eh, it absolutely does.
Scenario: scum-bv gets the Boomer Bile. It acts as a Cop investigation (flavour reason - the Bile turns enemies Purple and they show up clearly on the HUD if they are hit with it). Scum-bv destroys the Bile. Town ask what it does.
Option 1) scum-bv chooses to tell the truth and say "It's a cop investigation", and is thereafter committed to either clearing a Townie each Night, outing scumbuddies, or being discovered for lying.
Option 2) scum-bv chooses to lie and say "It's a redirect", and then is free to never produce evidence of it again.
Charlie wrote:Did you even think about the possibility of Keith being a plain Survivor when you typed that out?
Two out of the three examples you provided were PRs for Keith. Anyway, I'm not saying a nameclaim would
definitely
lead scum to
every
PR. But it could well help narrow the field.

dramonic wrote:answers your question AMB?
Ah. Yes, thanks.
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Post Post #828 (isolation #69) » Sat Apr 10, 2010 11:01 pm

Post by almightybob »

All items multiple-use:
The AI Director wrote:3.
ITEM USE:
Items grant night actions to the town recipients.
A player who receives an item will keep that ability for the remainder of the game.
Regarding item effects:
The AI Director wrote:- There is no limit to the effects items could have.[/ooc]

And without wanting to get sucked into a pointless (and potentially scum-benefiting) item speculation debate - in L4D/L4D2, the flashlight only antagonises one Special Infected, the Witch. The Boomer Bile paints
any
enemy's silhouette in purple and makes them immediately and obviously visible to every Survivor. Everyone on the Survivor team can immediately spot a Boomered enemy, even through walls, and know "Oh OK, there is a Tank/Hunter/Jockey/Whatever over there".
Therefore the Bile makes more flavour sense as a Cop investigation than the flashlight does.

Charlie wrote:I wonder if scum is REALLY that good to narrow the field of PR's based on a nameclaim. IMHO, it only serves to confuse scum who the PR's are. That would be a pro-town benefit.
Along the same line of thought, a nameclaim could help town identify confirmed townies i.e. the 8 core survivors but as already mentioned, possible fakeclaims setup. Nevertheless, I'm pushing for it. A lynch on a supporting cast claim carries more weight.
What do you mean "really that good"? All it would require is flavour knowledge, not skill at Mafia.
And based on the (admittedly little) evidence we have so far, supporting cast are likely to have PRs (like Keith) whereas main Survivors are likely to be vanilla (like Louis).

In this game, I have very good flavour knowledge - seemingly one of the few that does. I'm fairly confident that, if there was a mass nameclaim, I could pick out a few names that would have a greater chance of being PRs than others, based on my flavour knowledge. Especially now given that Keith's role fits very well with his L4D2 character.
Therefore I do not want a mass nameclaim, because if somebody on the scum team has equal flavour knowledge to me, they may be capable of doing the same. And I wouldn't be surprised if some scum claimed to have little flavour knowledge initially for this very purpose.
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Post Post #831 (isolation #70) » Sun Apr 11, 2010 4:21 am

Post by almightybob »

Charlie wrote:The way I see it, the player who gets the item, if it is a one-shot item, keeps that one-shot ability for the remainder of the game.
As opposed to what? Having it expire? I've never seen a one-shot that expires if it isn't used.
And anyway, this quote also suggests items are reusable:
The AI Director wrote:3.
ITEM USE
[...] If the player uses that item
even once
before dying, the item will expire upon their death.
The expression "even once" suggests items can be used more than that.

Charlie wrote:You've understood my point. Knowledge of flavour can tip the balance of the game in favour of town. If it is indeed true that all main survivors are vanilla, then if all 8 claimed we'll be left with PR's and scum. Risk/benefits tradeoffs are subjective.

The only way a nameclaim could help Town would be if you are correct, and the 8 main Survivors are indeed all guaranteed Town roles. If that were true, it would be a very broken game since we could clear half the Town in one go. Reck and Kise are not stupid, they would not design the game like that.
Therefore we cannot assume that main cast nameclaims are any more likely to be Town than supporting cast nameclaims.
Therefore a nameclaim cannot help Town.

We DO, however, have some evidence to suggest that supporting cast roles are likely to have PRs that fit those characters. That is information that will help any scum with sufficient flavour knowledge during a nameclaim. And as I said, it would not surprise me if scum had pretended to have little knowledge in order to throw us off the scent on this point.
Therefore a nameclaim can help scum.

Charlie wrote:For the record bob, for someone who has good flavour knowledge, you seem to be suppressing discussion about it i.e. overly cautious about it
I'm reluctant to bring my flavour knowledge to bear in public because I can see how it would help the scum. (Obviously I'm still using it personally when something game-related comes up.)
Imagine we had nameclaimed with Socrates still alive. I may have guessed that Keith would be a JOAT, or guessed incorrectly that he was a Mason with Ellis (as you suggested), or that he was in some way NK-resistant (because Keith has avoided death so many times) etc etc etc.
Basically, I may have fingered Socrates as some sort of PR based on his claimed role. If I do it in public, that helps scum.

Another example - when we were discussing what the Boomer Bile might do, I mentioned a redirect. If bv is scum and is lying about what the Bile does, he could have looked to my posts for inspiration for a fake effect that would still make flavour sense. My flavour knowledge may have
already
helped scum.

So - cautious, yes. Overly so, no.
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Post Post #832 (isolation #71) » Sun Apr 11, 2010 4:23 am

Post by almightybob »

almightybob wrote:If bv is scum and is lying about what the Bile does, he could have looked to my posts for inspiration for a fake effect that would still make flavour sense.
Actually, disregard this sentence. I just noticed that bv actually mentioned redirect a few posts before I did, so if he is lying scum he didn't get the redirect idea from my post.
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Post Post #847 (isolation #72) » Sun Apr 11, 2010 10:03 pm

Post by almightybob »

dramonic wrote:If it hints at infection, its not a fakeclaim <<
QFT. A fakeclaim that says "Hey this guy might be scum!" is a useless fakeclaim. Fakeclaims, if given, look exactly like real Town roles. That's the point.
thatguy00 wrote:I believe I'm actually with Charlie on this one. I do see there being some benefits to a name claim, laid out in the scenarios he mentioned.

I just think it'd be easier to decipher whose who.

Me right now (if I was wearing a suit):

Image


One more time for good luck:
- We have established that we cannot assume main cast claims are more likely to be Town than scum, because that would be a broken setup. Therefore any scumhunting based on nameclaims is flawed logic. Therefore
a nameclaim will not help us find scum
.
- We have seen some evidence (Keith the JOAT) to suggest that PRs will match the characters from a flavour perspective. Therefore it is possible that other PRs will have roles which reflect their powers, which would be revealed in a nameclaim. Therefore
a nameclaim will help the scum find PRs
.


Seriously, with the flavour knowledge I have, scum-me would be jumping at the chance of a nameclaim. I am telling you now, if we nameclaim I could probably peg over half of any remaining PRs we have in the game. So could anyone with the same flavour knowledge as me.
At this point, anyone who claimed flavour knowledge and yet is still in favour of a nameclaim is very likely scum IMO. I will be checking this after I post.

For now:
Vote: thatguy00


This nameclaim business is Charlie's brainchild, so I can sort-of understand why he's so reluctant to let go of it. But we've repeatedly demonstrated that it's not good for Town. Scum are the only people who would be getting behind this right now, because they are the only ones who stand to gain from it.


jmj3000 wrote:@Amished: I don't see the mods giving away set-up information like that to just anybody who asks.
Well then it's very easy to test, isn't it. PM the mod yourself asking for the same information, and see what they tell you. If we catch Amished with extra information Town is not allowed, we have caught scum.
Everyone should do this, and report back in-thread what the mod told them.
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Post Post #848 (isolation #73) » Sun Apr 11, 2010 10:10 pm

Post by almightybob »

Starbuck wrote:The player may keep it for the remainder, but some items could definitely be one-shot.
Then why say it? If it's one-shot, you
always
keep it for as long as you want. And what's the point in keeping an ability for the rest of the game if it's already been used and is useless?

Possible mechanics:
1) a one-shot that you keep
for the remainder of the game
until you use it. Standard one-shot mechanic, so no need for it to be specified.
2) a one-shot that you keep
for the remainder of the game
even after it's used. Pointless, because it's been used and is worthless.
3) a multiple-use that you keep
for the remainder of the game
, or until you die.

3 is most likely interpretation in my eyes.


Plus, the other quote which says something like "if you use it even once" very clearly implies multiple use. Why did you ignore that one Star?
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Post Post #849 (isolation #74) » Sun Apr 11, 2010 10:12 pm

Post by almightybob »

DizzyIzzyB13 wrote:Mmm... this paragraph has made me consider the possibility of third party involvement.
Meant to ask this earlier - why?
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Post Post #853 (isolation #75) » Sun Apr 11, 2010 11:31 pm

Post by almightybob »

Starbuck wrote:Why are you so drastically trying to twist words for your own benefit, bob?
How do I benefit?
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Post Post #857 (isolation #76) » Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:17 am

Post by almightybob »

DizzyIzzyB13 wrote:It inspired consideration of the notion that witches can be justified flavourwise as a third party, and that's something worth considering with two killing roles.
Hm. Not a bad suggestion. Actually now I think about it, "mauled to death" would be consistent with a Witch attack - she does indeed maul and scratch away at her target with her claws.
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Post Post #862 (isolation #77) » Tue Apr 13, 2010 10:07 am

Post by almightybob »

Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:(Turning people into newts seems much simpler.)
But then they can get better!
Charlie wrote:Vote where I left it at D1:

Vote: Amished
Looking back, your reason for voting Amished was stated as "voting patterns". What about Amished's voting makes you suspicious? You never really said.
The AI Director wrote:- Should scum destroy an item, it would resolve immediately, the same time that a town-aligned player would receive the item PM.
So Amished was correct. It was a bit of a long shot anyway really.
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Post Post #871 (isolation #78) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 2:30 pm

Post by almightybob »

Lol @ OMGUS.

And have you missed the part where everyone agrees that the scum will probably have been given fakeclaims by the mod? It's a very common practice, and it means they won't need to make up anything.
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Post Post #931 (isolation #79) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 12:05 am

Post by almightybob »

Sorry guys, unexpected stuff has come up in the last couple of days.
V/LA for a few days at least
.
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Post Post #955 (isolation #80) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 11:28 pm

Post by almightybob »

Just popping in to say: Furry is right. Dusty is the brawler, not the drinker. thatguy is lying scum, lynch nao etc etc.

Will hopefully be back into this game properly by tomorrow night. Apologies again.
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Post Post #958 (isolation #81) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 12:13 am

Post by almightybob »

DizzyIzzyB13 wrote:So, why exactly are you giving thatguy the opportunity to fix his mistake instead of allowing him ot hang himself?
Not sure if that's directed at me, and not sure exactly what it's asking, the wording is unclear. Are you asking why I didn't vote for him in my above post? My vote is already on him.
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Post Post #1071 (isolation #82) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 4:33 am

Post by almightybob »

Right, combing Tar/his replacee.
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Post Post #1072 (isolation #83) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 4:40 am

Post by almightybob »

Oh and also, Dizzy: One paragraph, why you are not scum despite your rolePM differing from two Townie's rolePM. Go.
DizzyIzzyB13, post 988, wrote:For me, the image he used for his quoteclaim pretty much confirmed to me that he's faked that role PM.
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Post Post #1085 (isolation #84) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 8:43 am

Post by almightybob »

Izzy wrote:So, can we conclude that we have multiple scum factions here?
Probably. The "ambush" title suggests it, certainly. And it would explain this from Tar:
Tar wrote:- Speaking of that, multiscum is a possibility to keep in mind. It would help explain the different camps of thought I keep seeing in this game and it fits with the doublekill and kill methods.
He knew there were multiscum because his faction name strongly implies it. If anyone else suggested multiscum, they might have been committing the same subconscious scumslip. I'll need to go back and check that, although off the top of my head I can't remember anyone mentioning it - although someone did mention an SK/third party.

Izzy wrote:To the best of my knowledge, their shared votes (just counting the Furry votes, note the ones made by the person he replaced) were almightybob, Amished and me. So... those are the people that, if scum, would have motivation to go after them. Hmm.

vote Amished
Furry and Socrates voted for more people than just the three of us.
And Socrates' vote on me was clearly only because I already had a few votes on me - he never expressed any actual suspicion of me.
Plus, during D2 Furry made it pretty clear that she felt she had been mistaken to get on my wagon - see post 803 and post 807. Indeed, it's strange that you seem to have forgotten that she changed her mind about me, since you were the one pressuring her about it.

Care to explain why you've included me in the list when you clearly knew Furry didn't have major suspicions of me and Socrates never expressed suspicion of me?

Anyway, why engage in this WIFOMy speculation when there's a far more fruitful and concrete line of reasoning -
what did Tar say?

Let's look at who the confirmed scum voted for (and who he didn't talk about).

Look at post 623 and tell me that isn't Tar-scum trying to throw a mislynch on Amished together in the deadline confusion.

Also note that in post 388 he FoSes me, probably seeding for post 874 where he says he thinks I'm part of a scumteam. The second one I suppose you could possibly construe as bussing (if it's not Izzy, I'm pretty sure Tar will have named his scumbuddy somewhere in this little bit of speculation in case he needed to bus later), but still - a confirmed scum building up a case on me and calling me likely scum looks good for me.


Now what's interesting to note is that
not once
does Tar even mention Izzy's name. I know he didn't post a lot (trying to fly under the radar?), but he managed to say a little bit about most of the players. But nothing about Izzy, positive or negative. It's like he didn't want to give any opinion on her at all. Even when people were placing votes against her, not a peep.


So again, by your own logic Izzy, we have:
- two dead Townies, both killed by the same method and therefore probably the same scum faction, both voicing suspicion and votes against you, and
- one confirmed scum from said faction completely ignoring you and any votes against you, while he calls me scum and tries to run up a deadline lynch on Amished.
- Not to mention your discrepancy with the rolePM images, which we are now supposed to believe was just a mod error although you used the same argument to push a mislynch
- And that you're trying to BS some case against me that doesn't exist, based on night action WIFOM that clearly doesn't fit.


Right now, you're looking hugely scummy.
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #85) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 8:50 am

Post by almightybob »

ReaperCharlie wrote:I don't know if it was intentional (I have to assume it was), but when I put Steam-Powered Shovel's posts in ISO, he misspelled Glork like 'Glrok'
every single time
he typed it. When he quoted someone, it said 'Glork' still, but otherwise, it said 'Glrok' every single time.
I noticed this at the time, but I never thought anything of it.
ReaperCharlie wrote:I don't know if there's some inside joke I don't know about, with SPS calling Glork 'Glrok', but otherwise, to me that sounds like some sort of a mason claim. Which would be fantastic if SPS hadn't died and could confirm it, because then we can trust that SPS is a survivor, not a zombie. Even after death, knowing that Glork was a civilian seems to point to that fact. But now that I've said it, SPS could easily claim that he was a mason with Glork even if that wasn't the case at all.
1) SPS didn't die. Glork did. SPS is still alive and well.
2) Glork's flip tells us he wasn't a mason. If SPS would like to claim mason with Glork, fine by me. It'll make our scumhunting much easier.

Izzy wrote:Inconsistency between a claim PM and a known town PM [...] is a perfectly logical reason to disbelieve a claim.
... what are you, a jester?
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Post Post #1092 (isolation #86) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 10:18 am

Post by almightybob »

DizzyIzzyB13 wrote:And it makes sense for Izzyscum to essentially ensure she gets lynched just to get a lynch on someone who could easily have been lynched without any intervention because...?
Hypothetically:
Perhaps Izzyscum thought that thatguy was from the other scum faction, so believed that his flip would make her look correct, and maybe cement her as Town in the eyes of the rest of us.

That would also explain why you kept pushing it after Starbuck stepped forward - you reckoned that if thatguy did flip scum, you could get a Starbuck lynch for free as well.



Obviously that is all speculation. What isn't speculation is that your rolePM doesn't match a confirmed Town rolePM.
Plus there's the several other points I brought up in 1085.
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Post Post #1094 (isolation #87) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 11:19 am

Post by almightybob »

Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:Really, bob? If Izzy were scum unaware of what the real picture was, shouldn't the fact that two people claimed a specific picture not tip her off?

It's just a bad move for Izzy if she's scum.
Oh, I don't dispute that. It was a very bad move.



Anyways, the rolePM is not the only evidence against Izzy. See my case in 1085. In fact, I'll summarise it here.

- The two Townies killed by Tar's scumteam, Socrates and Furry, both expressed suspicion of her.
- She lied by trying to imply that they had equal suspicion of me - and she was well aware of Furry's opinion of me in particular because she kicked up a big fuss about it at the time. There's no way she legitimately thought we were equal in Furry's eyes, and a cursory examination of Socrates' vote against me shows he wasn't really suspicious either.
- The confirmed scum, Tar, completely ignored the votes and opinions regarding Izzy. He never once even mentioned her name. (Seriously, iso him and Ctrl-F "izzy". Nothing.) He managed to say something about most of the other players, but not Izzy. To me, that says he didn't want any recorded opinion of her.
- She's now trying to push a case on Amished, when Tar's post 623 screams deadline mislynch attempt. It doesn't clear Amished - he could still be in the other scum faction. But it sure as hell doesn't look like bussing. No
way
are Tar and Amished scum together. That increases Amished's likelihood of being Town no matter how you look at it.
- And of course:
Izzy wrote:Inconsistency between a claim PM and a known town PM [...] is a perfectly logical reason to disbelieve a claim.
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Post Post #1107 (isolation #88) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 9:14 pm

Post by almightybob »

DizzyIzzyB13 wrote:Bob is reaching awfully hard.
Feel free to actually counter my points.
Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:I don't think it's as clear-cut as you make it out to be. I can easily imagine Tar thinking that Amished wasn't going to get lynched anyway due to the deadline. It's a risky play, but it works great as distancing if it succeeds.
Possible, but very unlikely IMO. Why take the risk of losing your scumbuddy so early? It screws you for the rest of the game, particularly if you know there's another scum faction. If you're trying to throw together a deadline mislynch on D1, I highly doubt Tar would go for his scumbuddy when he could have picked from any of the rest.
Amished wrote:I do not, under any terms or conditions, support an Izzy lynch today.
Why not?
Charlie wrote:almightybob, don't you think you've made a redundant post in #1094?
Meh, it was more of a neat summary/rewording of my key arguments. And even if it was redundant, so what?
If you're picking people up on redundant posting, feel free to have a chat with DeathNote anytime.
Charlie wrote:I'm up for a dramonic lynch today!
Why?
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Post Post #1124 (isolation #89) » Fri Apr 23, 2010 11:51 pm

Post by almightybob »

Quick point:
DeathNote wrote:Just a gut read but from BV posting, I don't believe he got the bile, and that means if he didn't get it, he is probably scum.

FoS: BV
What makes you think that? Don't you remember we checked to see if anyone counterclaimed bv? If nobody CCed, it means he did get the bile. He might still be scum and destroyed it, but he almost definitely did get it. Don't you agree?
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Post Post #1127 (isolation #90) » Sat Apr 24, 2010 4:10 am

Post by almightybob »

ZL?
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Post Post #1135 (isolation #91) » Sun Apr 25, 2010 10:27 pm

Post by almightybob »

Highlights:

bv310 claimed to receive the Boomer Bile, and says it is a one-shot redirect. He has not used it yet.
Starbuck claimed to receive the Flashlight, and says it is a one-shot investigation. He used it on jmj3000 and got the result "Town".
None of the other items have been claimed yet as far as I can remember.

From Tar's flip, it seems there are two scum teams, "Ambush" and something else. From kill flavour, it seems Tar's Ambush team killed Socrates and Furry, while the other team killed Glork and Tar.

On D1, late wagonhopping derailed our chances of getting a lynch.
On D2, Izzy used a difference in rolePM image to push a lynch on thatguy00, saying he must have faked his rolePM because the picture style was different even though their roles are in the same band. He had previously made a mistake when stating a detail of his role flavour.
Starbuck claimed a third member of the band, and her picture matched thatguy's, so in fact Izzy is the odd one out with her rolePM.


Roleclaims by people still alive (Survivor is equivalent to VT):
jmj3000 claimed Jimmy Gibbs, Jr., Survivor
Starbuck claimed Jake the lover, Survivor
DizzyIzzyB13 claimed Ox the drummer, Survivor



That's pretty much all the cold hard facts of it.
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Post Post #1138 (isolation #92) » Mon Apr 26, 2010 12:22 am

Post by almightybob »

Sorry Starbuck - I do know that:
almightybob wrote:Starbuck claimed a third member of the band, and
her
picture matched thatguy's, so in fact Izzy is the odd one out with her rolePM.
Dunno why I wrote "he" in the first reference :S Won't happen again.
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Post Post #1198 (isolation #93) » Sat May 01, 2010 4:54 am

Post by almightybob »

Apologies, I've been in hospital the last few days. Trying to catch up just now.
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Post Post #1207 (isolation #94) » Sun May 02, 2010 1:30 am

Post by almightybob »

ReaperCharlie wrote:I would appreciate if one of you could give me and SaintKerrigan a list of these things:
As it happens, I did almost exactly that earlier, when SK asked. Here you go. Note: I mistakenly refer to Starbuck as "he" in the first paragraph. Starbuck is, in fact, a lady.
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Post Post #1208 (isolation #95) » Sun May 02, 2010 1:48 am

Post by almightybob »

Whoops, didn't mean to post quite so soon.

Anyway, it doesn't seem I've missed a whole lot. Plenty of NK WIFOM along the lines of -

"But Mafia would kill people who suspect them!"
To which the obvious reply is
"But then they'd know you would think that, so they WOULDN'T kill people who suspect them!"
Aaand WIFOMspiral.

If Glork has such a fearsome reputation as a scumhunter, then perhaps he was killed early because of that, regardless of who he was concentrating his suspicions on?


I've already stated why I think Amished is less likely to be scum than others - Tar's push on him during the D1 chaos smacks of mislynch attempt. IMO there's no way Tar and Amished are scum together. Of course, with 2 scum factions it's possible Amished is in the other, but even if he is that makes him less likely to be scum overall than a random person.


And I've already made my case against Izzy. There are more things pointing to her as scum than the rolePM discrepancy.
SPS looks like lazy scum. He's done very little scumhunting of his own that I can see, instead just lurking and riding Glork's coattails for 2 Days. This is another thing that makes me think that Amished is more likely to be Town.

This rather pointless bickering over name typos between SPS and Izzy could easily be an attempt at distancing - a completely unrelated and trivial matter which they can both get aggressive and confrontational about, leaving Town with the impression "Oh no, Izzy and SPS were really going for each other! No way could they be scumbuddies".
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Post Post #1212 (isolation #96) » Sun May 02, 2010 9:31 am

Post by almightybob »

Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:NK analysis is sufficiently uncommon that scum are better off just killing who they want. Taking out someone who suspects you more than compensates for the added suspicion from other players.
Not when everyone then goes "Oh but dead Townie X suspected living scum Y! That's probably why they were NKed! Lynch lynch lynch".

If your statement is true, then the correct scum play then becomes to kill people who
don't
suspect you, because then you will attract less suspicion overall. So then your statement is untrue. So then the correct scum play is to do what you said. So then your statement IS true.

Don't you see the WIFOM spiral here?


This is exactly why I don't trust this wagon. A case built on WIFOM is no case at all.

Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:At the time of Tar's vote an Amishedlynch was looking very remote. And it wasn't a push; he didn't provide any reasons to vote for Amished. IIRC, Socrates was mostly responsible for the Amishedwagon taking off, which happened later.
At the time of Tar's vote,
every
lynch was looking remote. That's why I don't like it. People were looking for anyone to wagon with the deadline looming. Perfect opportunity for scum to throw out a name and hope people jump on in the rush to avoid a D1 no lynch.
SPS wrote:I'm lazier as town than as scum, just fyi.
So that fairly prompt reply is indicative of you being scum?
Not really gonna trust your own evaluation of your meta. Never having played with you, I don't know whether this laziness is on a level with your Town play or not.

This just seems like a scum cop-out. If you're Town, scumhunt on your own. Play to your win condition or replace out.
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Post Post #1217 (isolation #97) » Sun May 02, 2010 11:42 am

Post by almightybob »

SPS wrote:it is simply an empirical fact that people don't attach sufficient significance to NK targets for it to be worth to refrain from killing based on suspicion
This 'empirical fact' is completely discredited when you observe that right now, in this very game, people
are
attaching sufficient significance to NK targets.
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Post Post #1225 (isolation #98) » Sun May 02, 2010 10:17 pm

Post by almightybob »

DizzyIzzyB13 wrote:It's an irritation that negatively affects my ability to read him properly, so hardly a needless distraction. The needless distraction is SPS's insistence on attempting to irritate the town.
1. Select SPS's post.
2. Ctrl + C.
3. Open Word.
4. Ctrl + V.
5. Edit -> Find and Replace.
6. Replace "Glrok" with "Glork".
7. Read the post.
8. Stop using this as an excuse to drag us down blind alleys.
Charlie wrote:Uh bob, you don't sound convincing at all in #1212. It is hard to describe... it is like reading a politician post good stuff about reducing taxes and advocating green technology.
Okay... so you're saying my post is good stuff? I'm confused by your analogy. Aren't reducing taxes and advocating green technology good things?
If you're not convinced by my argument, I can try to rephrase it. Which part specifically doesn't convince you?
Charlie wrote:Perhaps something rings a bell...like you using "never attribute to stupidity what can be attributed to malice"? Reverse someguy's razor?
Inverse Hanlon's Razor. It doesn't really apply here though, since nobody is trying to excuse anything as stupidity. Perhaps you're thinking of Occam's Razor? "The simplest explanation is usually the correct one".
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Post Post #1229 (isolation #99) » Mon May 03, 2010 9:15 am

Post by almightybob »

Charlie wrote:Erm, not really bob. The key word in that analogy is politician. They can't be trusted with what they say.
Ah right.
Anyway the analogy still fails, because in that scenario a politician's "role" is confirmed - you know they're a politician, and therefore lying, before they even start talking. My role is not confirmed - I could be lying scum, or I could be Town telling the truth.
If it's just healthy skepticism on your part, fine. But then there's no reason to call me a politician over anyone else.
Charlie wrote:Maybe I would agree with you in a smaller game. I feel this theory does not apply at this stage due to a large number of players still alive.
I don't see how the number of players affects that logic.
Charlie wrote:Yep, I'll use Occam's Razor here! Big game, scum just kills of those who suspects them, does not need to counter points made against the accuser.
Hah, I had a feeling you were going to say that after I mentioned Occam's Razor.
Unfortunately, Occam's Razor says nothing about which explanation is correct when there are multiple equally simple and equally plausible explanations.
So, for example, I put forth the explanation:

Big game, scum just kills of those with good scumhunting reputations, does not need to worry about being attacked by that player.

It's equally simple, and equally plausible, and Occam's Razor becomes useless. There's no way to determine which is correct.
Charlie wrote:And, I'm kinda decided. I'll self-participate in a nameclaim in my next few posts.
Claim if you want, but I won't be joining you.

Two predictions about Charlie's imminent nameclaim:
1) He will claim one of the 8 main Survivors
2) He will expect us to believe that this makes him more likely to be Town

SPS wrote:Don't agree with you here. People are attaching some significance to it, but compared to the situation in which either of the Night 1 targets is still alive, I'd say Amished is in a better position, so it was the right kill for him.
- How do you know either of them would have kept up their suspicion of Amished into subsequent days?
- Why aren't you pursuing everyone they expressed suspicion of?
- Amished could logically have killed a maximum of one of N1 victims. What do you suppose was the motivation for the kill on the other?
- If we accept that the deaths of those suspecting him look bad for Amished, how do you conclude that he is in a better position because of those deaths?
- How can you possibly say it's a fact that people don't attach significance to NK targets, when you
just
said they make sense for Amished-scum, and half the D3 discussion has been on why Amished would have killed Glork?
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Post Post #1233 (isolation #100) » Mon May 03, 2010 12:01 pm

Post by almightybob »

ReaperCharlie - Did you see where I pointed you to my summary post? Any thoughts yet?
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Post Post #1238 (isolation #101) » Tue May 04, 2010 12:17 am

Post by almightybob »

SPS wrote:Their suspicions were serious enough to attempt a last-minute effort to get him lynched by the deadline.
But you for some unknown reason don't accept that Tar might have been trying to take advantage of this?
SPS wrote:Glrok and Socrates are pretty decent kills in general since they're good players. Amished just stood out as having a significant added amount of motivation to kill either.
I seriously don't understand how you can keep saying "Amished would have had more motivation to kill them" and then say "It doesn't make him look particularly bad". That's
exactly
what you're saying - that it does look bad for him.
Am I seriously the only one noticing this obvious contradiction?

Incidentally SPS, how do you have so much meta on people like Glork and Socrates if your account is only just 2 months old? How many games have you played with Glork and Socrates? Are you an alt?
And if you are, you do realise that your earlier "I wouldn't lie about my meta" is bullshit, because an alt is predominantly used to avoid meta?

Charlie wrote:Okay, bob. You win. Now tell me who is infected in this game.
So I was right? Good stuff.
Most likely infected are Izzy and SPS right now. Possible infected are you and DeathNote. Likely Town are Starbuck (and by extension jmj) and SaintKerrigan (because iirc I got Town vibes from Pom). Rest are fairly neutral.
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Post Post #1239 (isolation #102) » Tue May 04, 2010 12:18 am

Post by almightybob »

EBWOP: Oh, and Amished is likely Town too.
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Post Post #1281 (isolation #103) » Thu May 06, 2010 3:31 am

Post by almightybob »

crypto: Why are you encouraging Amished to vote for SPS, when you think SPS is Town?
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Post Post #1286 (isolation #104) » Thu May 06, 2010 5:30 am

Post by almightybob »

ReaperCharlie wrote:Ok... so why do YOU think SPS is town?
I don't, I think SPS is likely scum - see bottom of this post.

Crypto says he thinks SPS is Town. But he also urges Amished to vote SPS, not once but twice. I want to know why.

RC wrote:This plz
You seem to be spending a lot of time asking the rest of the Town to do the legwork for you. It really doesn't take long to read. It occurred from thatguy's claim (page 38) to his lynch (page 43). Go read.
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Post Post #1291 (isolation #105) » Thu May 06, 2010 10:12 am

Post by almightybob »

crypto: Even if I go back and replace "him" with "Dizzy" in your two posts, it still doesn't really make sense. You seem to just pluck Dizzy's name out of the air if that's the case. Could you try to rephrase it?

Izzy: You already quoted your RolePM during the thatguy/star/you debacle, remember? Here. We already know your claim.
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Post Post #1294 (isolation #106) » Thu May 06, 2010 10:56 am

Post by almightybob »

DizzyIzzyB13 wrote:Keyword, Bob.
I didn't realise a claim could get more thorough than showing a rolePM.
SPS wrote:I'm quite willing to follow his lead
Ahh, the mantra of bandwagoning scum.

And that's not your whole case SPS. Don't forget all the times you simultaneously claimed the NK targets pointed to Amished-scum, but that NK analysis is not important enough for scum to choose their target accordingly.
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Post Post #1307 (isolation #107) » Thu May 06, 2010 4:13 pm

Post by almightybob »

crypto wrote:
Re: bob.
I think SPS is town. I also think Dizzy is scum. Do you have a fucking point?
My fucking point is that if I go back and look at the post you made, even assuming the reference to Amished was a mistake and that you were actually referring to Dizzy, it still doesn't seem to make sense in the context. So I asked you to maybe rephrase it. Do you always react like a dick when people make perfectly reasonable requests?
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Post Post #1313 (isolation #108) » Fri May 07, 2010 2:30 am

Post by almightybob »

DizzyIzzyB13 wrote:Sigh. Item claims, you silly people. Although, I'm waiting on hearing back the answer to a question from the mod that would be very, very helpful since depending on the answer, I believe that I can clear myself by surviving until tomorrow.
The only items you've grabbed for are the flashlight (which Star got) and the pills, which only went on offer today. Which means that in the (unlikely IMO) event you're Town, we would just get them back anyway on your lynch. So it's not really going to stop me wanting to lynch you.

Anyway, I suppose we might as well check the most obvious potential lie. Any counterclaim on the pills?
Charlie wrote:FoS: almightybob

Reasons already stated.
Yeah, you think I'm scum because I post good things, or whatever your politician analogy was supposed to convey. Or possibly because I oppose the nameclaim. Good stuff.
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Post Post #1316 (isolation #109) » Fri May 07, 2010 3:46 am

Post by almightybob »

Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:Izzy's suggesting she can clear herself with the pills, bob. That's definitely something worth listening to.
Yeah, by surviving till tomorrow. Does it seem likely to you that the scum would let Town-Izzy get cleared? A living, cleared Townie? If she was still alive tomorrow after saying what she just said, I wouldn't be thinking "oh she must be cleared Town", I'd be thinking "oh she's probably lying scum".

At least if we lynch her and she really is Town, we'll get the pills back, and potentially clear someone else without having to paint a target on their back beforehand. Plus there's the very likely possibility that she's just scum trying to BS one more Day.

I'll wait to see what she says, but frankly it looks like if Izzy actually is Town, she just signed her own death warrant.
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Post Post #1353 (isolation #110) » Sat May 08, 2010 1:43 pm

Post by almightybob »

The only flaw I spotted was the one you mentioned in 1350. I don't know what the other one is. I can think of one or two, but they're be highly speculative flaws, and based only on me deliberately seeking a potential flaw. And I doubt what I'm thinking of is what you were thinking of.

Well if we're not lynching Izzy today,
Unvote, vote: SPS
.

So who do we want Izzy to give the pills to?
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Post Post #1378 (isolation #111) » Mon May 10, 2010 11:09 am

Post by almightybob »

The AI Director wrote:The person
[who receives the item]
is decided upon immediately after the 25% have gone for the item.
The AI Director wrote:- Should scum destroy an item, it would resolve immediately, the same time that a town-aligned player would receive the item PM.


Please keep up jmj.
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Post Post #1400 (isolation #112) » Tue May 11, 2010 1:57 am

Post by almightybob »

Goddamnit, the items always go up for grabs at ~4am. Why you be hatin' on UK players, Director?

Anyways, SPS is the choice for me today. Reasons in many previous posts.
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Post Post #1402 (isolation #113) » Tue May 11, 2010 2:18 am

Post by almightybob »

Goddamnit, the items always go up for grabs at ~4am. Why you be hatin' on UK players, Director?

Anyways, SPS is the choice for me today. Reasons in many previous posts.
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Post Post #1403 (isolation #114) » Tue May 11, 2010 2:44 am

Post by almightybob »

That's L-1.
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Post Post #1412 (isolation #115) » Tue May 11, 2010 8:38 am

Post by almightybob »

Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:Haha sweet, I got the Molotov! And it has a confirmable ability. If I throw the Molotov cocktail, I create a distraction wiping out all the votes on a player of my choice (and making him unlynchable for the day). I can't use it Today, but I can confirm myself tomorrow.
It's pretty goddamn convenient that the two people I most suspect both just
happen
to get items right before their lynch, and both those items just
happen
to require that we give them one more day to confirm themselves.

And that makes very little flavour sense. A molotov wipes out common infected and makes it easier to kill Special Infected. It does not render Survivors unattackable (CEDA Agents and Special Infected can still attack). Plus in the game, it is an instant-use ability. There's no flavour reason, and no Mafia reason, for it to be restricted to the next Day.

nhammen wrote:During my reread I consistently found bob and DocPotter (who was later replaced by ReaperCharlie) to be very scummy throughout Day 1.
Was it my actions themselves, or SPS's attacks on my actions, that you found scummy?
nhammen wrote:But everything else he has done has seemed scummy.
Wait, so is it everything, or D1?
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Post Post #1414 (isolation #116) » Tue May 11, 2010 8:49 am

Post by almightybob »

Gah, sniped.

Back on this, are we? Sigh.

The first quote is from a large post, which I edited and reworded several times while I was writing it. Inevitably, sometimes a mistake will be made and a word change will not make sense. I thought I had made it clear that it was a fairly light-hearted addendum to the main meat of my post. The intended meaning was something like this:
What I wanted to convey wrote:We should lynch bv because I think he's scum, and we could get the guns back before he destroys them.
(Even if BV is Town, we should kill him to spare us the damage he would do to Town! Lol amirite?)
There's nothing mutually exclusive about what I wrote - just a confused line of thought caused by re-editing a post several times while writing it.



Oh and my previous post made me realise there's little to no flavour reason for the Pills to be a delayed action. Why can't you use them straight away to make someone harder to lynch Izzy?
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Post Post #1417 (isolation #117) » Tue May 11, 2010 9:03 am

Post by almightybob »

Actually, it seems more likely to me that you saw that people backed off on Izzy, so you chose to copy that part of her claim in the hope people would do the same with you.
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Post Post #1439 (isolation #118) » Tue May 11, 2010 9:00 pm

Post by almightybob »

Idea.
We get Izzy and SPS to target each other. Then we run up a lynching majority on them both.
If we are unable to lynch either, they are both confirmed Town.
If we manage to lynch one, the other is confirmed scum.
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Post Post #1442 (isolation #119) » Wed May 12, 2010 12:14 am

Post by almightybob »

Charlie wrote:You don't think that they are both town, bob?
...
Have I not made that abundantly clear?
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Post Post #1445 (isolation #120) » Wed May 12, 2010 4:13 am

Post by almightybob »

SPS - does the molotov remove votes already placed on a player as Izzy described?
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Post Post #1446 (isolation #121) » Wed May 12, 2010 4:15 am

Post by almightybob »

dramonic wrote:You know, by definition you can't have a majority on two people, right?
Sigh. Do one, then the other. Is that really a huge logical leap to make?
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Post Post #1448 (isolation #122) » Wed May 12, 2010 5:29 am

Post by almightybob »

If one of them dies when we try it, the other is confirmed scum. So yes, that's exactly what I want.
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Post Post #1453 (isolation #123) » Wed May 12, 2010 11:19 am

Post by almightybob »

SPS - do you need to use the molotov at the start of the day, like Izzy does?
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Post Post #1455 (isolation #124) » Wed May 12, 2010 11:41 am

Post by almightybob »

So why can't you use it today, if it can be used at any point?
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Post Post #1495 (isolation #125) » Sat May 15, 2010 5:05 am

Post by almightybob »

DizzyIzzyB13 wrote:Agree a target for me, or I'll choose Starbuck.
No. No no no no no. You use it on someone the Town thinks is scummy.
That way, if you're lying scum and we accidentally lynch because of it, we still get a half-decent lynch choice. There's no way I'm trusting you when you tell us "guys, run up a lynch on someone who's very Town, and I
promise
they'll be fine". Charlie gets some minor Town points for pointing this out already.

Since SPS is no longer with us, I nominate dramonic as the pill target. His suggestion that we use the pills on our probably-investigation-cleared Town shows far too much trust in Izzy than any Townie should be showing her right now.
bv wrote:Okay, so I attempted to use the Bile on Reaper Charlie last night and was blocked. [...] I still have the Bile.
That sounds a lot like BS. I've never heard of a one-shot Mafia ability that you get to reuse if you were roleblocked.
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Post Post #1497 (isolation #126) » Sat May 15, 2010 6:04 am

Post by almightybob »

Dramonic. Go.
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Post Post #1505 (isolation #127) » Sat May 15, 2010 4:38 pm

Post by almightybob »

I wanted the pills to go to someone I consider more likely to be scum, because I do not trust Izzy. If she is lying and we instead test it on one of my Town reads, we then lose a Townie.

This way, if she is lying and the lynch does go through, we still get a half-decent lynch. If we do end up wanting to lynch dramonic today, it won't be such a huge difference. It's not like they're unlynchable, just ever so slightly harder to lynch.

Although having said that, if dramonic did get a PM saying he received the pills, that does make it seem like Izzy is telling the truth after all.
Still, we should check.


There are 11 alive, so that means the normal majority required for lynch is 6. With the pills, it should take 7, so 6 votes against dramonic will have no effect.

I suggest that the 5 most active people other than me all place votes against dramonic. That way we can get this done quickly. Then I will place the sixth, and immediately unvote. If Izzy is lying, my unvote will not count and dramonic will be lynched. If she is telling the truth, he will be fine, and we can dewagon.

So I think the following 5 people should vote for dramonic:

Amished
dramonic
DizzyIzzyB13
ReaperCharlie
Starbuck


And obviously, anyone outside that list who votes for him dies today.
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Post Post #1507 (isolation #128) » Sat May 15, 2010 4:40 pm

Post by almightybob »

R U 4srs?
That better have been a simulpost.
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Post Post #1509 (isolation #129) » Sat May 15, 2010 4:50 pm

Post by almightybob »

Haha. OK I think we can forgive that.

New list!

Amished
dramonic
DizzyIzzyB13
ReaperCharlie
Charlie
Starbuck


I really only put RC in because we needed a fifth and nobody else stood out as active enough. So never mind that.

Anyway, that's one of five. In your own time, Amished/dram/Izzy/Star.
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Post Post #1515 (isolation #130) » Sun May 16, 2010 11:05 am

Post by almightybob »

Yeah, you. I just put down the most active people, so we can get this over and done with. Normally I dislike self-voting, this is the only time I'll ask you to do it :)
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Post Post #1530 (isolation #131) » Mon May 17, 2010 12:15 am

Post by almightybob »

Okay, Izzy is Town.

The test tells us nothing about dramonic's alignment though. I'm not sure why RC is trying to suggest that we could possibly confirm dramonic with this.

We can also confirm another Townie.
Somebody shot SPS as well as one of the scum teams killing him, so if only one person claims to have done it, they must be Town - presumably they used the shotgun. If a scum counterclaims, we lynch them both for a guaranteed scum lynch.
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Post Post #1532 (isolation #132) » Mon May 17, 2010 2:37 am

Post by almightybob »

Wait, did you mean claim as in "I claim that I have the Bile" or as in "Grab: Bile"? As it stands, the question seems to ask "can players fakeclaim items" which is obviously a yes.
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Post Post #1553 (isolation #133) » Mon May 17, 2010 11:42 am

Post by almightybob »

Starbuck wrote:The fact that you had to ask this question boggles me.
Why? I was confused as to what Izzy was asking. It seemed like she was asking a pointless question to me.
And anyway, how is it scummy? There's nothing there to merit a vote.


SK: Read the goddamn thread before throwing votes out. Christ.

RC wrote:Oh hell no you don't! This is complete and utter BS! You are in no way confirmed as a townie! dramonic could be lying about 'receiving' the pills
No, he couldn't. We tested it. Izzy's claimed effect worked, therefore Izzy must be Town. Read the thread, scum.

Unvote, vote: ReaperCharlie
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Post Post #1568 (isolation #134) » Mon May 17, 2010 2:54 pm

Post by almightybob »

Mm. I have replaced into large threads, so I can sort of sympathise with SK here. I think Amished is making a bit of a mountain from a molehill.

On the other hand, throwing out a vote when you clearly have no grasp of the current state of play, and additionally are perfectly aware that you haven't been keeping up, is not acceptable.
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Post Post #1575 (isolation #135) » Mon May 17, 2010 4:48 pm

Post by almightybob »

SK wrote:@ Almightybob: In my mind, the best way to get into the thick of it is to find a reason to vote someone and see what happens. So far, it's worked beautifully.
So you replaced in on page 46, but you're going to start actually playing now, on page 63. Really 'getting in the thick of it' there.


So when you were finding this reason to vote, you didn't check to see if it was in fact a good reason? You just take any reason? You had to more or less immediately retract your vote because 30 seconds of investigation shows it's based on bad logic and it's demonstrably wrong. If that's what you define as working beautifully, we have very different opinions of what Townies should be doing.
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Post Post #1590 (isolation #136) » Wed May 19, 2010 8:31 pm

Post by almightybob »

Grab: Defib
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Post Post #1591 (isolation #137) » Wed May 19, 2010 9:17 pm

Post by almightybob »

Okay, there are 8 players still in the game. We know there are two scum teams from the naming of that team as Ambushed, and I assume there are equal numbers in each team.

We know that Team Ambushed has at least 3 members.
If Scum Team B had 4 members, this game would already be over - 4 Scum B, 1 remaining Ambushed scum, 3 Townies.

Therefore the scum team size is 3, the Ambush team have been eliminated, and we currently have 3 Scum B vs. 5 Townies.
Which means today is mylo, and therefore one of the rare occasions where a no-lynch is tactically justifiable. I will outline the maths if people want.



Also, this is the point where I would be willing to consider a massclaim - although on the other hand if we're gonna no-lynch, I'm not sure if we should massclaim today since it might help the scum with their NK choice. What do you guys think?
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Post Post #1593 (isolation #138) » Wed May 19, 2010 9:56 pm

Post by almightybob »

Why? The reason Iwas opposed to massclaim before is because it was too early. At that point, it would only have helped scum. But since we're now in mylo, I figure it might be worth a try now.
And where did I mention NK WIFOM in that post?
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Post Post #1596 (isolation #139) » Thu May 20, 2010 12:50 am

Post by almightybob »

DizzyIzzyB13 wrote:Equal size is not a given, thus this analysis is ultimately useless.
Not really. It's not a given, but it's highly likely. In all the games I've read with multiscum, the factions have had equal numbers. Plus it would be pretty unfair to one scum faction to give the other more players. Just for mod ease of balance I would assume equal numbers too.
Anyway, I'd rather err on the side of caution and assume that we are in mylo.
Starbuck wrote:I also announced that Jmj was town in the first post of Day 2.
A coded message =/= an announcement.
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Post Post #1607 (isolation #140) » Thu May 20, 2010 3:30 am

Post by almightybob »

Starbuck wrote:I did announce it with my claim (as you conveniently are forgetting), but I wanted to point out that I breadcrumbed it as soon as the Day opened.
I didn't forget, but the post you linked does not contain an announcement, it contains a whisper.
Charlie wrote:Almightybob, I would like to take up on that offer of a maths outlining if you would!
Certainly.
Assuming that we are in fact in 3v5 mylo:
If we lynch today, we have a 3/8 chance (37.5%) of hitting scum. If we mislynch, scum kill a Townie and then win in 3v3. So we have one chance to lynch.
If we no-lynch today, scum will kill a Townie and then tomorrow we have a 3/7 chance (42.9%) of hitting scum. If we mislynch, scum win.

So by no-lynching, we increase our scum-hitting percentage from 37.5% to 42.9%, without losing any opportunities to lynch (we only get one chance either way).
Charlie wrote:Massclaiming suddenly does not sound like a fantastic idea after the church guy and Jimmy Gibbs Jr. flipped town. Apparently, flavour does not match scumminess in this game.
Which is what I've been trying to say this entire time - name claims can't be trusted. But I'm not suggesting a nameclaim, I'm proposing a full claim, of the whole role.
Charlie wrote:The remaining bad guys are...oh I don't know, Amished, almightybob and bv310 I guess.
Present a case against me then please. I have yet to see one from anyone that I can remember.
And present one against Amished that isn't "Glork said so" or "because I accept the parts of NK WIFOM that suit me".
And present one against bv, at all.

Incidentally, can I take it from the fact that you posted 3 names that you agree with my estimation of the remaining scum?
Amished wrote:@bob: what happens if it's an SK + a larger group of mafia?
Why would the Tar/RC/dram Mafia team be named "Ambush" if there wasn't another scumteam with a different name? Why are they coloured yellow, when the traditional colour of scum is red?

It's pretty obvious there are two scum teams. Everyone has been working with this assumption since Tar flipped - I'm by no means the only person to bring it up. But now it's suddenly scummy to mention it, when everyone else has treated it as fact until now? Bullshit.

Starbuck wrote:So, I'm still not getting where the idea of 2 scum factions is coming from.
We've been talking about it since Tar flipped, 500+ posts ago. See above points, Izzy's 1080 and my 1085.
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Post Post #1631 (isolation #141) » Fri May 21, 2010 12:48 am

Post by almightybob »

That reminds me, I will be
V/LA from Sunday 23rd til Saturday 29th May
. Might be able to check in once or twice, but probably not.

Amished - why do you say you're not questioning two factions, but then talk about an SK? An SK is not a scum faction. SK is third-party. I'm talking about multiple Mafia factions.

The Ambush name is an obvious indicator that there is another Infected team with a different team name. If Ambush Infected are the only team of Mafia, why call them Ambush? They would just be the Infected.

So if there ARE multiple scum factions - which it's pretty obvious there are, and we have known since Tar died - then it seems logically obvious to me that there must be 3 members in the other faction, for the reasons I already gave. Your SK scenarios make no sense given the scum flips we've had. Multi-scum is obviously what we're dealing with, and as you correctly conclude, 3/3 scum is the only configuration that makes sense.

It's not a scare tactic, it's me being realistic. If you guys want to take the risk and go for it today, fine. I'm just saying that, mathematically, a no-lynch is actually a viable option this time, as opposed to the last two times indecision has crippled us and forced us into it. For once, it could actually help us.
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Post Post #1639 (isolation #142) » Sat May 22, 2010 2:32 am

Post by almightybob »

Charlie wrote:bob, do you think Amished is town? Why?
Yes, for a few reasons. I have yet to see a good case presented against him. The pushes that have been brought against him so far have felt very scummy to me, in particular SPS's "Glork said so" case. Obviously we know he wasn't scum and therefore was just lazy Town, but if I go back and find anyone agreeing with that logic, I would put my money on them being scum.

Basically, he hasn't done anything scummy and yet lots of people seem to think he's scum. That makes me think he's most likely to be Town, and the scum are trying to drum up suspicion from nothing.


Now some questions:
Charlie, do you think I am Town? Why?
Charlie, do you think Amished is Town? Why?
Charlie, do you think bv310 is Town? Why?
Charlie, do you think crypto is Town? Why?
Charlie, do you think SK is Town? Why?
Charlie, do you think Starbuck is Town? Why?
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Post Post #1641 (isolation #143) » Sat May 22, 2010 6:35 am

Post by almightybob »

Charlie wrote:Um. Are you serious? That's everyone except Dizzy and myself!
Exactly. It seemed like you were trying to reduce this to an Amished-or-bob thing. I don't like false dichotomies, especially when they involve me.
Charlie wrote:I...don't think you're town, bob. You're awfully pessimistic. I don't feel you're behaving right, as though you're hiding something by the way you post. Call it gut if you will.
Okay. Not much I can say to defend against gut, so yeah.

Charlie wrote:For the record, getting roleblocked gurantees the return of used item, so he's telling the truth with that point.
It does? How do you know that?
Charlie wrote:Not really. He just could be wrong.
Well, that too. Which would mean Amished is Town.
Charlie wrote:Me?
Was it you? I haven't had time to check yet. If it was you, then yes, it would make you very scummy in my eyes.
This game we've seen other examples of scum latching onto bad Town-produced scumhunting. Remember when Socrates said "I see something scummy about Ifrinn, but I'm not going to tell you what it is"? I said "I bet scum are going along with this", and I was right. Look back - DocPotter (replaced by Tar) jumped right on just like I said the scum would.

So yeah, that's a black mark against your name Charlie.
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Post Post #1643 (isolation #144) » Sat May 22, 2010 8:39 am

Post by almightybob »

Charlie wrote:Doh! Tell who you think the 3 bad guys are.
Honestly, I don't know right now. I got dramonic right (that's why I wanted the pills used on him), but my other, stronger scum reads have flipped Town. I'm trying to work it out. I have a few fairly strong Town reads so I can maybe pin them via a process of elimination, but since it's obvious to me we're in mylo I'm not sure if that's the best way to go about it.
So you do agree that there are 3 scum left?
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Post Post #1716 (isolation #145) » Mon May 31, 2010 4:47 am

Post by almightybob »

Back from my V/LA
. Doesn't seem I've missed much.

Anyway, thoughts since my last post:

Charlie thinks there are 3 scum left and therefore agrees with me that we are in mylo, but puts down a vote before we reach concensus. He also encourages Amished and myself to vote as if it's just any normal Day instead of mylo. Does not compute. Another black mark.

SK's taking a month to catch up is indeed ridiculous. And frankly, I'm insulted at the implication that none of us have social lives. We do, but we also honour the commitments we have made here. Catching up within a month is not an unreasonable expectation.
But anyway, that's been said. The real question is, do I think he's just stalling scum. Possibly (Starbuck's PbPA of him certainly doesn't make him seem Town), but a better candidate for that label is bv.

I disagree with Amished's logic that bv is cleared in a 3/3 setup. It's not a huge leap of faith for someone to expect that there are roleblocking abilities out there, especially if it isn't present in their own scumteam - it's a very common mechanic. He may be scum who got lucky, and based on his exemplary active lurking I'm not prepared to rule that out.

I
really
don't like Charlie's post 1686. Cutting out half the field is ridiculous when we only have 1 confirmed Townie. And I really don't like you trying to push yourself as cleared when you are nowhere near it.

crypto, I take it from your vote that you don't believe we are in a 3/3 setup? If not, why not? If so, why are you voting before we reach concensus?

Anyways, my scummiest read right now is Charlie. I can collate a full case if necessary.
But frankly since I think we're in mylo, I still think a no-lynch is the right move. But if nobody else is gonna go for that, then my choice today would be Charlie. I would settle for bv, but he's not ideal.
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Post Post #1736 (isolation #146) » Wed Jun 02, 2010 1:42 am

Post by almightybob »

crypto wrote:I think 3/3 is more likely than one large scum group. I also don't think it matters. If it is 3/3
and
I'm voting town then
all three scum
will have a fucking hard time quick-hammering without getting intercepted.
I don't like that. Perhaps I'm being over-cautious, but on principle I disagree with placing a vote at all in mylo/lylo before a concensus is reached through discussion. Besides, it's not unheard of for scum to organise a time to all log in and quickhammer if possible.
Charlie wrote:That vote garnered some discussion didn't it? Discussion is a good thing.
I'm tempted to vote you just for that. "It started discussion" is the most pathetic cop-out reason, even more so by page 69. The only time we need votes to prompt discussion is during RVS, and emphatically
not
in mylo.
Charlie wrote:Occam's razor, bob.
I don't see how that applies to anything you said.
Charlie wrote:Also why is asking that question "cutting out half the field"? It is merely selective questioning. I don't discount the other possibilities and I even answered your set of questions.
Because you rule out people without any justification. The only person people should be saying "except for X..." is Izzy.
Charlie wrote:Nope, you're wrong on both points. A no-lynch would just get our confirmed townie (Dizzy) killed, unless there is some protection mechanism in play. Unlikely, IMHO.
I've already given the maths on how a no-lynch increases our odds of hitting scum, with no loss of lynch opportunities.
I see no reason to assume there's no protection abilities, and scum would surely have to weigh it up in their mind either way. We know from Socrates' flip that Townies can have pre-given PRs - a Doctor or similar role is not inconceivable.
crypto wrote:Assuming there aren't just four, almightybob.
Why me? I seem to be in the same situation as Amished here - all bluster, no cases against me. How can I possibly defend myself against people just saying "almightybob is scummy"?



Guys, watch the interaction between bv and Charlie in posts 1733 and 1734. bv's suspicion of Charlie sounds a lot like bussing - "after other people have voiced it, I now find him suspicious too". And look at how Charlie practically 180s on Amished after bv gives him direction by saying he finds him very Town. Charlie has been suspicious of Amished this whole time IIRC, and now he agrees that Amished is Town? Come on.

Obvious scumbuddies are obvious.
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Post Post #1740 (isolation #147) » Wed Jun 02, 2010 5:30 am

Post by almightybob »

Apologies in advance, but this post is a long one to reinforce my point.
Charlie [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2199971#2199971]661[/url] wrote:On a more serious matter: I support an Amished lynch today! Based on vote pattern.
vote: Amished
Charlie [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2218273#2218273]855[/url] wrote:my top suspect is still Amished based on yesterday's wagon
Charlie [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2222346#2222346]868[/url] wrote:Anyway, there are other reasons Amished is behaving suspiciously. The reasons for the votes does not seem genuine as he picks out parts of people's post as scummy only.
Charlie [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2242653#2242653]1139[/url] wrote:Can we get a dramonic or Amished or ReaperCharlie lynch today?
Charlie [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2247509#2247509]1179[/url] wrote:Forgive me if I sound naive, but I'm using the simplest explanation: Amished is scum and killed people who suspected him.
Charlie [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2270421#2270421]1488[/url] wrote:And,
vote: Amished
just in case the day really IS 3 days long. No more of this no-lynching business.
Charlie [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2271901#2271901]1506[/url] wrote:My suspects include Amished, dramonic and almightybob.
Charlie [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2273660#2273660]1526[/url] wrote:Good. We have a confirmed. Now let's lynch Amished.

unvote
vote: Amished
Charlie [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2274075#2274075]1534[/url] wrote:So, can we please lynch either Amished, dramonic, or almightybob now?
Charlie [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2279138#2279138]1598[/url] wrote:The remaining bad guys are...oh I don't know, Amished, almightybob and bv310 I guess.
Charlie [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2279144#2279144]1600[/url] wrote: The case
[against Amished]
lies with the dead townines.
Charlie [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2282680#2282680]1640[/url] wrote:I don't think Amished is town because townies who suspected him ended up dead
Charlie [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2288176#2288176]1665[/url] wrote:
[when asked on what grounds he is voting Amished]
That he is scum?
Charlie [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2296907#2296907]1725[/url] wrote:I think we should lynch one of...
almightybob
Amished
SaintKerrigan
bv310 [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2298489#2298489]1733[/url] wrote:
Amished
- I came into this post expecting to find him the scummiest and lay down a vote, but in ISO he comes across as exactly the opposite. Town read
Charlie [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2299047#2299047]1734[/url] wrote:Reading Amished in iso results in him starting of looking scummy, but ends progressively turns townish.
bv310 wrote:Amished - I came into this post expecting to find him the scummiest and lay down a vote, but in ISO he comes across as exactly the opposite. Town read
I'll admit it, I have to agree with that.

This is the most blatant 180 I've ever seen. Within the space of 9 posts (1725 to 1734) you completely change your tune.
Tell me again there's no connection here with bv.


I am happy to lynch Charlie today.
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Post Post #1748 (isolation #148) » Wed Jun 02, 2010 9:50 pm

Post by almightybob »

You're welcome Starbuck.

That's L-1 (Amished, bv310, Starbuck). Since we've already had Charlie's claim, I'll give people a chance to say anything else they want before Night and then I'll place the hammer in a few hours.
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Post Post #1751 (isolation #149) » Thu Jun 03, 2010 12:20 am

Post by almightybob »

Charlie wrote:No, I'm at L-2, bob. It takes 5 to lynch.
D'oh. Silly me. Of course it is.
Charlie wrote:I wouldn't recommend a premature hammer since we have yet to hear more stuff from SK and (admittedly) myself.

I'll give an analysis in a few hours time.
I wouldn't call it premature. Excessive dithering has lead us to two no-lynches so far this game. We already have your claim, and waiting for SK to contribute will just stall the game further. I'm all in favour of a little decisive action now.

Anyway,
vote: Charlie
.
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Post Post #1756 (isolation #150) » Thu Jun 03, 2010 3:28 am

Post by almightybob »

I'm confused. Are you 180ing on me as well now? You don't really say anything I've done is scummy in that analysis, but you've been calling me scum for most of the game too.
Your conclusion doesn't seem to fit your analysis. Your interpretation of the events reads:

- looks Town
- seems opportunistic but I can see it as Town following a lead
- fair enough
- null tell
- good play and a null tell (Eh? Surely good Town play is a Town tell?)
- perhaps a good thing, but could be other Infected (Incidentally, you should really consider the entire RC wagon as a null tell since he was outed by a confirmed Townie - being on that wagon is not a point in my or anyone's favour)
- strange


Nothing there really saying I'm likely scum, so why would you choose me over Amished or SK?

Also lol@ "that seems too easy". It took me over half an hour to collate all those posts where you expressed suspicion of Amished and link them all. It was not easy, I can assure you. But you're right, the case does look good, because it
is
good.
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Post Post #1757 (isolation #151) » Thu Jun 03, 2010 4:31 am

Post by almightybob »

I thought you thought Charlie was Town, crypto? In 1741 you said as much. Why the change of heart?
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Post Post #1767 (isolation #152) » Fri Jun 04, 2010 9:48 am

Post by almightybob »

HELL YEAH :twisted:


First and foremost, huge thanks to Kise and Reck for running this game, it was very fun.

Massive thanks to Amished and crypto for being excellent scumbuddies. We rocked, guys.
The AI Director wrote:***MODNOTE: If The Witch is saved by the molotov cocktail or picks up the molotov, she is auto-killed, but it does not end the day.***
o.O
The AI Director wrote:***MODNOTE: The Tank can only be killed by The Witch.***
Well, talk about shit-out-of-luck dram.



Yeah... we totally got lucky with N5. I went to the QT and saw you'd targeted the most obvious choice for protection Amished, I was like "WTF". Although the mod PMing me suggesting I might have got the defib was cruel.


Agreed with 5). Or better yet, RC should never have gone in for something that was obviously confirmable. I warned my scumbuddies about this in our QT. He signed his own death warrant going for the molotov.
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Post Post #1770 (isolation #153) » Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:04 am

Post by almightybob »

Amished wrote:@bob: I thought you got the defib so there's no protection that was available. BV didn't redirect me, so it should've gone through had you actually gotten the defib.
Yeah, that's why I said it was cruel of the mod to send me that PM suggesting I might have gotten the defib. It could easily have screwed us there.
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Post Post #1772 (isolation #154) » Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:26 am

Post by almightybob »

Incidentally, reading the Graveyard - I wonder how many of these people (who all seemingly knew the scumteams from early D1) would have said the same if they hadn't been told by the mods who was in what team. As Glork says, it's easy to spot the flaws in the arguments and the scumtells when you already know who is scum.
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Post Post #1776 (isolation #155) » Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:49 am

Post by almightybob »

Furry wrote:There is no reason to lie about your read post game hun.
Yes, because humans
never
try to make themselves seem more accomplished than they actually are. Ever read people's CVs? You'd be amazed how many amazingly athletic, musically gifted, multilingual, incredibly sociable, hardworking, can-work-well-in-a-team-but-also-able-to-handle-solo-responsibility, generally incredible people want to work at the same job.



On a different note, round of applause for Charlie - he played a blinder and called so many scum correctly he should get a freaking medal or something. I still can't believe we got a lynch on him. Your scumhunting instincts were dead on mate, and I actually feel a little bad that I got away with trashing them the way I did.
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Post Post #1814 (isolation #156) » Sun Jun 06, 2010 11:49 am

Post by almightybob »

Glork wrote:Like I said, no town has won a completed game I've played since I came back to MafiaScum.
How many of those games have you been Town? I only ask because a correlation that strong implies causation.
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Post Post #1823 (isolation #157) » Sun Jun 06, 2010 8:40 pm

Post by almightybob »

Really? I wrote it in our QT I'm sure.
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