Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Devotress]

My opinion on the numbers debate: There is nothing to be gained in terms of scum hunting from the draft order, even if the scum had been able to talk before submiting numbers (which it doesn't sound like they were able to,to me) it's just a huge wifom trap.

Vote fate

ISO 3 and 4 are so scum saying "look how calm I am about this wagon forming on me, I can't be scum"

[Devotress]

Can I get one last confirmation from Spyrex, please:

If you /in I will PM you town or scum. AT THAT POINT if you may choose to give me draft numbers. Or, you can wait until they must be in.

This confirms that scum knew their allignment before draft numbers, it doesn't confirm they were given their buddy list before draft numbers. Infact, scum couldn't have been given their buddy list before draft numbers, because roles were assigned

As people signed up

, meening all of their buddies hadn't been descided yet.

Spyrex, did scum know all their buddies before sending in numbers?



If we have to follow down this wifom hole I'd rather be sure we're actually right about this, because I still don't think we are.

[Devotress]

So I was wrong, and there is some merit in the numbers game, but there is only merit as far as after we have flips. eg: Spyrex is probably not Vi's scum buddy because Spyrex and Vi both picked 2.
I still say that using the numbers before we have flips is plain silly though, scum could have easily picked the same thing as a bunch of townies. There is nothing town telly about being in a multi picked number.

question for all, who here played the first game? and can I have a link to it?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12937

It hurts me to link that thread for how bad scum(which I was) did that game.

[Devotress]

We actually have a 4.5% chance of hitting scum, if anyone was wondering.

There are plenty of people who want to lynch fate though(me), but your numbers case is bad. You're overblowing the numbers way too much, and you're doing the fate wagon no favours with all this numbers talk. No matter how many percent chances you decide to make up(and making up IS what you are doing with "50%"), it just sounds like you're trying to justify lynching all power roles.

[Devotress]

With the vote against The1fifi I didn't even think of Fate as vengful lyncher based off his "According to plan" quote though maybe i should have.

I took that post as him being jokey about getting votes. I think people making it overly clear how calm and jokey they are about their wagon seem scummy.

[Devotress]

Do you understand my logic in post 137? If you don't, I will try and betterly explain it for you. If you do, please tell me where my logic fails, and you get the impression I'm making it up.

Your logic doesn't fail(though I personally don't want to lynch that way), and I see where you're coming from. It fails when you start to call it a mathematical statistic. It isn't. It's based on an assumption of an unproven theory. The theory can be sound and accurate, but when you start assigning math to it you're making stuff up. Any number you assign to it other than 4.5% is wrong.


You get what I mean?

[Devotress]

Basically I mean the numbers act like a fact when it isn't one yet, and you're assigning numbers is like trying to force people to accept your theory as if it was a mathematical fact.

[Devotress]

I do believe scum doubling up is a realistic possibility.
Look how many people on the list got relatively high up with a secondary number. It would be perfectly reasonable for scum to double up and still expect to have a good chance of getting middle of the road. Middle of the road is good enough to probably still grab a good scum power.
Hell, in the last Pick your Power I was The

20th

person to pick a power and I still landed a decent scum power.
The free cheap distancing* from doubling up is worth it.


*not really the right use of distancing, but you get what I mean.

[Devotress]

For reference, to show why scum could assume they could double up and still have a good shot at getting power roles, here is the top 6 on the draft list from the first pick your power:

1.) Cobalt (3,4)
2.) Elvis_Knits (6,15)
3.) Vi (12,6)
4.) Chamber (14,15)

5.) StrangerCoug (4,7)

6.) Faraday (4,12)

I bolded Strangercoug, because he was the highest person who doubled up, and everyone below him also doubled up.
As you can see, many people who doubled up still ended up very high on the draft list(5 and lower).
and if you look at this games draft list, doubled up people faired even higher, with the first doubled person appearing at THIRD.

Socrates (12,1)
Fate (13,4)

bouncy.bouncy (2,1)

Cobalt (2,10)

I think the Risk/reward as far as doubling up goes, is worth it. If I was scum I would have advocated it.

[Devotress]

Hoopla accidentally convinced me that atleast a couple scum doubled up when I wasn't thinking that earlier

[Devotress]

I'm only arguing that it's a real enough possibility to discount using the numbers in either direction.

[Devotress]

I'm thinking more along the lines of 1-1-1-2 or 1-2-2.
I don't think they'd stack 3 on 1 number.

[Devotress]

There you guys go with the numbers again. Stop applying factual numbers onto a theory. I agree with the theory I don't agree it's factual math.
I've never argued we shouldn't lynch fate by the way, but I want to lynch him cause he recieved a scum role pm not because he picked good draft numbers.


Tell you what, if hoopla and tonymontana both flip scum I probably wont try and lynch you. That's the security you're wanting out of this right dramonic?

[Devotress]

Also, if you agree with the theory why dont you want to use it?

Because mafia know where they are on the list and I don't know where mafia are on the list. Mafia could, theoretically be low on the list and safely backing this plan. An acceptance of this plan sets up chain mislynched too, if scum aren't on the top of the list.
Not only does it set up potential chain mislynched, it sets up potential chain mislynched of the player slots that were likely to get the good roles like cop, vig, bulletproof.

Putting it simply, it plain benefits scum more than town. The worst case scenario of not following your plan is this:

Some scum are high on the list, and we don't vote them out based on numbers, we can still hit scum lower on the list, and we can still hit scum high on the list, by using normal scum hunting means.

The worst case scenario of following your plan though:

We vote out the highest people, killing off our best power roles, and giving the scum 2 free mislynched and 2 free night kills.




Tldr: Risk reward is that if you're right and we don't follow, we can still kill scum high on the list by other means, if you're wrong and we do follow, we give the scum 4 gaurenteed free kills.


See what I mean? I'm sure I rambled a bunch in this post, but I can't be bothered to clean it up unless it turned out unreadable.

[Devotress]

^For the record, are you saying you want to see me put at L-1 and claim, Hoopla?

I do!

Where's your vote at dram?

That's actually a really good point.

[Devotress]

FOS EVERYONE WHOS JUMPING OFF OMG (I haven't actually looked ath the names of who was on / is jumping off but if there are then there ya go)

Too bad.

unvote fate

Fate's posting has been good lately, he really only had 2 posts that were the reason I voted for him, and has had many more posts since those 2 that aren't keeping up the same scummy behavior.
I also don't like a couple people on his wagon and am not sure I want to be voting with them.

More later, just wanted to get a quick unvote in while I had time to be around.

[Devotress]

If being one of 2 people who visisted a dead person only increased your odds of being scum by 5.1 percent I wouldn't.

[Devotress]

Is there any way you can see the number choices improving the odds of particular players being scum/town? Or is it all ~WIFOM~ to you?

It does increase there odds, I said so in my last post.
By 5.1 percent.


(as per jacks very helpfull equation post)

[Devotress]

It's not an act. I seriously don't think a +5.1% chance of being scum is a serious enough reason to place a lynch priority on the people who picked single numbers.

[Devotress]

it's not 5,1%, it's 50%. The player isn't scum against the entire player pool, only against the other person that visited the corpse.

I wasn't responding to his hypothetical he brought up for fate, I was responding to the point at hand.

[Devotress]

Well I was technically responding to his hypothetical, but I was saying the hypothetical isn't relavent to the current situation.

[Devotress]

I'm not forgetting that you're #2 in the draft order, as there was barely anything scummy about you, Fate*

*Fixed.

A watcher watches two players visit the house of a townie who is murdered - don't tell me you wouldn't use that information against a player, even if there was barely anything scummy about them.

If being one of 2 people who visisted a dead person only increased your odds of being scum by 5.1 percent I wouldn't.

Sorry for reposting all this when it's on this page, I'm just showing Dramonic what I was talking about. Basically, she(sorry for calling you he earlier) states something that is not a 50% chance at all, and then brings up a 50 percent chance hypothetical as if that was simaler/relavent.

[Devotress]

@Rayfrost, bouncy, and because I wasn't on the internet for a bit over a day now.

vote bouncy

Reasons: ISO6, and weak excuse for joining the fate wagon.



The case on pomegranate seems off to me, though I can't comment on cobalt's "she's playing like scum pom", since I've only played one game with pom where she got replaced very early.

[Devotress]

The case on pomegranate seems off to me, though I can't comment on cobalt's "she's playing like scum pom", since I've only played one game with pom where she got replaced very early.

AKA PYP I.

Shh. we mention that game as little as possible.

[Devotress]

Can we get more votes on a bouncy wagon for a little bit?

[Devotress]

Questions for reference:

1) How many people here thought about what strategy the mafia would use when picking numbers before the game?
2) How many think my math in ISO 16 is wrong?

If hardly any people do then it points very strongly to hoopla being scum.

Hoopla is just being stubborn because he thought he stumbled across a brilliant strategy, and is ignoring your actual math post because he doesn't want to admit he was wrong. I don't think that makes him scummy. I think this whole numbers discussion, if he flips scum, is when we should analyze what he was trying to achieve with his numbers.
I'm feeling stubborn townie right now though.

[Devotress]

Unvote bouncy

Vote the1fifi

Btw I was scum in the last game when I made a post where I pretended I was cobalt as I voted him.

[Devotress]

Unvote bouncy

Vote the1fifi

Btw I was scum in the last game when I made a post where I pretended I was cobalt as I voted him.

What?

Deadline running out, the bouncy wagon hadn't attracted enough(maybe 1?) since a while ago, the1fifi did

exactly

what my reaction was to playing with cobalt in the last pick your power.

[Devotress]

Vote bouncy

I wanted this wagon to grow a bit yesterDay, never did, maybe I'll have more luck toDay.

[Devotress]

@hoopla

If we

vote: bouncy.bouncy

, aren't we effectively killing off the 2 group? This might be an added reason to consider this vote.

In your mind (hoopla), is this as good as hitting someone who drew a single number, now that bouncy is the last of his number?

Not just asking for building the bouncy wagon (though I want that), but also to get an idea what your head is going to be as the game goes on, in regards to simaler situations.

[Devotress]

Is bouncy seriously arguing that he only posts content when he's scum, so we should think he's town because he's not doing so?

[Devotress]

I agree with hoopla that scum wouldn't go for rolecop that high up the list. They'd be trying to grab the vig or maybe the cop, on the off chance they can keep one of those out of town hands.
I also believe bouncy's claim, atleast enough to give him an

unvote bouncy

at the moment.

[Devotress]

A role cop definately helps the scum more then the town.

In a standard game, but in this set up scum allready know where all the best town roles probably are.

[Devotress]

I agree that bouncy is VI, and I believe he is the rolecop, for what it's worth.

[Devotress]

2. I guess we don't have a doctor, or they didn't protect RayFrost... -_-

Scum could have an empowerer.

[Devotress]

Scum could have an empowerer.

This is your comment on the day??

fos:devotress

Still trying to decide what I think of the going after top power slots now re the scum vig, which is what this day is about.

[Devotress]

Well there's that then.

vote pomegranate

If we luck out completly, we will have a doc and pom will be the empowerer.

[Devotress]

the1fifi, we have 3 votes on pom by my count.
She's not a second off from hammered.

[Devotress]

4 now, elibireth got that post in while i was typing

[Devotress]

Farside was number 7 I'm pretty sure.

[Devotress]

sorry, that was with 9 to lynch, should have said that last post.
Anyhow, farside brought pom to l-2, and some people unvoted cause they were worried she could get hammered.

[Devotress]

A few pages back Fate said I was one of the scummy votes on his original wagon, even though earlier in the game he said I was one of the better votes on his wagon. Thought that merited pointing out.


Anyhow, are we waiting more time to get night actions in, or is it safe to throw a vote up on socrates? I have a very hard time believing this was the townie gambit he claims.

[Devotress]

That's a hammer right? Deffinatly got a scum gov used on socrates if he contributed to the wagon himself at the end there.

[Devotress]

Lots of posts today: reading now.
Saw some people were wanting myself and a few others to claim, getting that in now before I finish the reading. I'm vanilla, tried to become a rolecop.

[Devotress]

Since elibereth never adressed it, this needs to be reiterated untill he acknowledges it: If you use your govern power on any lynch today, we auto lose, so you can't force town to go with your vote.
Once again, use your power and you lose, assuming you're really town gov.


Fate is pretty much either the town bomb or the scum vig, either option explains his unwillingness to claim early game.
I think I feel most comfortable lynching one of the toper slots, Fate Jack, Stranger. Maybe the1fifi, but i'm feeling like I believe fifi's claim.
Obviously this is because as everyone's allready said, we need to hit the vig.

Rereading socrates day one, he went onto the Fate wagon second, but was mad at people after it hit l-1

the way this wagon reached L-1 was horrendus and I don't think the scumtell I voted him for is worth a lynch

He proceded to unvote fate and vote for Pomegranate instead.
thoughts: He went after fate, and ran off the wagon when it became a very likely lynch. This is either him getting early distancing in on a scumbuddy, or him trying to get townie points for not being on the lynch of someone he knew would turn up town.
I've been going back and forth trying to decide which it is, but my gut is making me want to say he was trying to seem townie by not being on the fate wagon once he flipped.
My reasoning for this is he did a very simaler thing later, when he bothered to come in and post how bad this day 1 lynch of fefifofum was going to be, so close to the deadline that there was no stopping the lynch anyway.

[Devotress]

The post I should have quoted near the end of my last post:

8 votes in a little over 1 page? The wagon is an apathy driven lurker lynch? We are less than 24 hours from deadline?

FeFiFoFum is going to flip town. Wheee!

[Devotress]

you know what, elibereth did adress the governor lynch issue, sorry for not noticing that before I made my post earlier, was just reading stuff again.

[Devotress]

Strangercoug/Jack cause I figure one of em's gotta be the vig.
Third choice I get wierd gut feelings about Elibereth, he seems scummy to me, but, I agree with him that fates town, so.


You didn't ask, but I get the impression tony montana is just a bored/inactive. Is he posting in other games atm?

[Devotress]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 6

StrangerCoug

- 1 - Fate - (L-5)

The1fifi

- 1 - StrangerCoug - (L-5)

Players not voting: Devotress, Ellibereth, Faraday, Hoopla, Jack, The1fifi, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

Actually if elibereth is scum he isn't the gov and wouldn't really stand to gain from fake claiming that right?

[Devotress]

I grieve for the loss of the poor wine. farewell, we tried to save you.





I really need to examine this game to find what made me so scummy, I'm obviously not the greatest player. Glad I wasn't a lylo loss lynch or anything, I was scared of being that. Would have been had I been higher on the draft I suppose.


I'm linking this game when someone brings up number theory in the next pick your power

[Devotress]

I'm linking this game when someone brings up number theory in the next pick your power

The funny thins is if we'd followed Hoopla's plan it'd have been a COMPLETELY different and harder game for the scum

Well yah, would have hit a scum day 1 on socrates, and would have made whose the vig alot easier to figure out.
But still, this game did a good job proving that scum are all over the draftboard, knowing what 4 other people are going to pick doesn't put you any average amount higher in the draft.

[Devotress]

Any significant amount higher, I ment to say. Scum did have a slight better average placing.

[Devotress]

I kinda can say though. You guys did have a bit better placing, but look at the positions.

1,7,9,16,21

That is not a top end loaded enough scum team to warrant a strategy of lynching the top picks.

[Devotress]

Reading your quicktopic you guys even talked about who you should kill to leave groups alone to be good targets for number lynching. I can't see how you can have participated in that quicktopic and think it's a good idea for town to make heavy use of number analysis.


I'm not arguing you guys didn't have ANY advantage in the draft. Just not a significant enough average placing to warrant lynching people baed on being in the top of the order.