Stars Aligned II - Game Over!
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Iecerint Survivor
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I was going to vote EK for challenging Sly on what were quite reasonable reservations with dramwagon, but Ani is sort of crazy. I agree with EK. Either she is quite dumb, or she has an anti-town ulterior motive.
Unvote; Vote: ani.-
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I am too dumb to think of any other ones.
Maybe she wants scum to think she's a Murderer so that she will be NK'd because she thinks she's not a very good player? I suppose that's a slightly-more-sophisticated interpretation of events. A comparatively remote one, though.
PS: I am thrilled that someone either loves me enough to Ward me, or wants to kill me. I love you, too. <3-
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Ani had already indicated that her reason had been something else. That's why I felt OK about saying it.Adel wrote:
I'm not accusing you of scummy intentions, but it is typically a bad idea to tell people what their reasonable explanation should be.Iecerint wrote:Eww. The only way out was if she somehow thought that Stalk was a form of tracking. Then it would make sense to Stalk a perceived skilled player. How obnoxious.
I'll leave my vote, anyway. I don't like being naked, and I don't yet see an obvious alternate target.
@ ST -- Yeah, it's highly remote in that positing two scum with this little information is always going to be low-probability. But I think he was awfully quick to come up with that solution after a claim that ultimately "confirmed" current town status on Ani.-
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Thank ye. That makes perfect sense. I thought VP was a Heard Noise/No Ward person and that that was the myopic basis of his statement.Seacore wrote:If VP is warded, then that means his Ward on Adel did not work. If it didn't work, Ani might be being truthful with his stalk claim
If VP wasn't warded, it means that his Ward on Adel did work, which means that Ani would have said "and my stalk failed"
So If VP's ward on Adel worked, Ani is a cultist (or just a scummy liar who should be lynched anyway)
Similiarly, if another person warded Adel, then VP's ward can be broken and Ani still is a liar.
Thats why they're special.-
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I agree that we should force the grave robber to take confirmable insanities to the extent that it is possible. For one, keeping someone from being a Murderer for the first several days greatly decreases the odds of winning the game as a Murderer, so it would seem to be reasonable insurance against whoever taking that path.-
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I think we decided that Warding Warders cancels the Warder's Ward, right?
Since scum (I think?) can Ward, they could mess up the Ani-warders by warding them.But then their night target would survive, which would be no good for them.
So this would only be problematic if one of the 2 players selected to Ward Ani was scum, since they wouldn't have to explain away their target. And the scumfriend who kills Ani would still probably be caught.-
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Yeah -- I had "only town shoots" and "only town dies" backward in my head for whatever reason. Not sure why.
They could become Murderers as of N2, actually, right? And earlier for Ani and any other opportunistic stalkers? So people could mess with this if they thought it would be more fun to ruin the win for everyone or whatever.-
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All would-be Murderers are currently Investigators. The probability of winning is greatest for any given person by remaining an Investigator. Therefore, the only reason to become a Murderer is if an individual thinks said flavor is kinda neat, and whomever is more interested in that than in his/her personal win/lose status.
Is that incorrect?-
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I wish I were a cultist. I would have a funny mask.-
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Murderers don't win until they murder 3 people. That means D5 at the earliest, and that would prevent them from stalking tonight, so we'd recognize who they are D3. So Murderers really can't win until D6 at the very earliest. Then you have to factor in the probability of not being killed by random mass murder and so forth.
Investigation is a far higher-probability win condition under Adel's system AFAIK. The only reason to be a Murderer is if you are sort of an ass, or if you think the game is too easy -- in which case the solution is to make a new one.
Isupportthe plan, but I think there's still some merit in discussing it. I think people are saying interesting things about it, and I'd like to make sure we're not missing something.-
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They can't Ritual all of their assigned murder targets. Some players they're paired with will survive. Then we'll know either that a member of the Ani-2 Warders trifecta was scum that warded the target, or that the killer was scum unable to kill.Seacore wrote:Won't cultists simply fetish every time investigators stalk, and Ritual in the place of a murder?-
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SlySly is almost certainly scum if the two modkills he just requested are town. For one, that (= what SlySly just did) is a very dastardly thing to do. Second, there is no indication that either party was discussing this game per se until Vi transparently indicated as much. If anyone is violating the spirit of that rule, it is the party who inappropriately contextualized the conversation IMO.-
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The allegedly offending conversation is very abstract IMO. You can read it to judge for yourself. I would not have considered it a violation of the rule.
I mean, suppose I am asked about my experience with Vi's meta, and I say "I have played with Vi." Suppose the only instance of that is an ongoing game. Am I guilty of "talking about games outside the thread?" It's sort of vacuously true, maybe, but I wouldn't personally consider that problematic because any stricter adherence to said rule irreparably disrupts discourse.
Disclaimer: I only scanned the first few posts. I may have missed something more sketchy.-
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Actually, I do think he would be perfectly likely to ask in thread. I have read games where scum does precisely that and then uses the rhetoric you have indicated to exonerate themselves.
And, in any event, the fact that there are perhaps smarter ways to go about something does not change that the act itself is (probabilistically and according to my own perceptions of Adel's play and to a lesser extent Phate's play) anti-town.-
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Did anyone actually make that argument? I have no recollection. A handful suggested that he might be covering up a yet-to-come insanity, but I think that's as close to your suggestion as we can come.VP Baltar wrote:People who were and still are adamant about ani being scum are scum. How is this not obvious now that we have essentially confirmed that ani is town?-
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Right, that's part of my point. I don't think there's anyone in the set of players VP is claiming we should lynch from.-
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kk. <3EK<3 btw. (I'm trying to change the subject.)-
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Ell's idea seems fine. I think Adel wanted to randomize it because the background probability of the plan being net pro-town was high, whereas making a list like that could potentially allowed skilled scum to subvert group membership.-
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Ya, I was explaining why Chaco's identification of "murder" (lowercase "m") with "vig" is not inappropriate.-
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Why is Ell scummy? I remember that thought crossing my mind a long time ago, but he has been well-behaved recently.
And who is Nicodemus? (Goes to read.)-
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What do you mean by "breaking infractions on purpose"? I don't follow.-
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OOK @ Ell. I must admit that that part sounded very tedious to confirm. Still a good idea, though.-
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Yep, you've got the pronunciation correct. /jekerInt/ with epsilons and schwas as appropriate.
You're misglossing my phrase. I meant that he was a salient-enough scumplayer from your perspective for you to single him out by name. Or are you saying that that's not quite right?
I would tentatively support an implementation of Ell's plan.-
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I almost chose Stalk. Murderer is such fascinating flavor!
But it's also a much lower win probability, so it's almost literally a violation of the rules to go that route.-
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@ Ani, it's not as if Ell's mystery insanity is psychopathy. I could understand if this were a second infraction, but the first being mysterious is no big deal AFAIK.
@ Phate, I believe it's Sajin's plan. But OK. They could always both be graverobbers, if we're convinced we need more than one.
ALSO -- since graverobbers probably get bloody, we need a few people to stand by the sidelines and watch politely.-
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Uhh. I think the kits are like doc abilities. They're not revival abilities AFAIK.animorpherv1 wrote:I think this may be worth mentioning as well. All on Town list stalk/ murder, and if we were wrong, we search untill we find a Resc. kit. We then use it on the player below us (or if your last on the list, the 1st player on it)-
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Oh, nevermind. Playing with corpses doesn't make you bloody. I guess we're careful to drain them.
She still might need a friend in case cult decides to incite Chaos. Not sure whether they'd want that, though.
Carry on.-
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I thought you meant "Elli's plan == Elli's list." As there is, ye know, no resistance to Ell's plan to speak of.-
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I agree that Sly should point out the holes. The holes in Sly's plan is that there may be a superior alternate plan: namely, Ell's.-
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It's not really a prisoner's dilemma.
In a prisoner's dilemma (the economics one, I mean; MS people have some other thing they call PD for whatever reason), both parties invariably benefit from personally defecting, even though the aggregate gain is greatest via cooperation.
In this scenario, by contrast, both parties suffer whenever a player defects. It is spiteful (lose-lose) to become a Murderer.
I am skeptical of the notion that Percy is crying in a corner because we want to plan ahead to maximize the chance that town will win and thereby somehow totally invalidate the fun factor of this game. Rather, I think that the process of maximizing the utility of night actions is part of the game.-
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The plan is kinda a no-brainer IMO. It is both simple to understand and intuitively simple to implement. The people who either can't understand it or don't think it would work should indicate what is challenging to understand or why it will not work. It looks like people are trying to cast doubt on a clearly-powerful plan because they have no other means of undermining it.-
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Vigs shouldn't become Murderers because it lowers the chance of their winning considerable. Murderers win on their 6th murder, but they can only murder every other day. So they win D6 at the earliest (D7 if they didn't already Stalk, but those players would be beaten to the win by other Murderers, anyway, so there's even less reason for them to switch). But practicing mass genocide will greatly reduce the number of days such that it is unlikely that a Murderer will have enough to complete even the maximally-quick route to the win.
We could also require that Stalkers take specific insanities (avolition ala ani, e.g.) to find Psychopathy-takers outright.
We don't know we're going to hit more than half the cultists for sure. That was true of Adel's model, too. Our success depends on our scumhunting abilities D1.
The reason this is a good system -- as Faraday indicated in intuitive terms -- is that by D3 we would ordinarily have 2 opportunities to kill scum whereas this model provides 8-10 (depending on how we use No Lynch). 6 free lynches is nice.
It's true that there's a temporary opportunity cost associated with the loss of whatever items may have been Searched for D1, but we'll get those back whenever Ani robs them from your grave, anyway.-
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The rez kit point is well-taken; I hadn't thought of that. But I think it can be dealt with. The cult would have to forego Stalking to search for one assuming they haven't already done so. (I assume most of them used Craft Fetish.) So StalkerCult will probably do that since they won't Murder their target, anyway, but we could catch them D2 by requiring them to take a confirmable insanity.
StalkeeCult could also do what you're implying. The simplest solution is to force Stalkees to also take confirmable insanities.
tl;dr
Stalkees launder confirmable insanities to prevent rez kit searches. Stalkers take confirmable insanities to prevent rez kit searches.-
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Well, right. They still have to demonstrate an insanity (via the Ritual), though. If they spend N1 searching for a rez kit, they won't have an insanity, and we'll be able to find them D2.
Failing to be demonstrably insane will be scummy.-
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Well, for one, there are quite literally more of us. So long as everyone contributes, average input into the shooter list will be town.
It's worth remembering that hypothical ShooterCults won't be able to kill their targets. So it's not as if there's the same payoff for either side either having a town or cult player as a shooter. (NB: I did not work out the math in my head for that, so correct me if I'm wrong.)-
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