Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Socrates]

Let's save the speculation on which numbers the mafia picked until later. It sucks as a game starter, because scum are just as good as town at strategic type arguments, but people get stuck on proving their theory and end up omgus'ing and voting based on bs. Then once that talk is exhausted, there isn't anything real to go on, and the game stymies.

Vote:Tony Montana

for picking (1,1) in the draft = mafia

But it's obvious that four scum wouldn't

all

pick 1 or 6 as their X number. The risk of leaving the town with too many powerful roles is too high. Therefore singular and doubled numbers have the greatest chances of containing scum.

Kind of weird you're voting based on numbers (even if it's silly).

Hoopla, Hoopla, Hoopla, if there is anything that Mayor mafia should have taught you its that mafia are absolutely terrified of sticking out in any way, and are much more at home in the crowd.

The scum doubled up on one of their picks, mark my words.

[Socrates]

The Draft:

Once the order is done, you will then straight down the list attempt to pick a power role. If someone above you on the list has picked that role you will be vanilla.

Note: The mafia will be able to talk before the draft begins for a period of approximately 24 hours.

The roles:


fos dramonic and socrates for having this fake argument.

[Socrates]

Do we have any reason to believe scum had the possibility to actually communicate legally before sending their draft/role?

This. I must have missed a rule... IIRC, he said we would all get a PM with our alignment, and then have to send back a reply with the picks.

Does alignment include list of team members? Hmmm... Any scum want to claim and tell us?

Vote FeFiFoFum

For doing the RVS wrong, and voting Socrates

(srsly guys, if he's not dead tommorow he's either BP or scum).[/

quote]

Yay! I was waiting for someone to say that.

you know, just like how the scum never shot Cobalt in the last game and he was... oh wait.

vote: Fate

[Socrates]

socrates

The scum doubled up on one of their picks, mark my words.

I disagree with this. I think maybe at the most 2 people in the scum group picked the same first number but I can't imagine they all did this then the likelihood of getting a PR goes down and why would scum not want to be in the best position for a PR?

um, thats exactly what I said, Farside.

Did you think I said that all 5 members of the scum team picked the same X number? That would be madness.

[Socrates]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 3 - RedCoyote, Farside, Fate - (L-9)

Dramonic

- 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)

Fate

- 9 - Hoopla, Socrates, Ellibereth, Cobalt, Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, Faraday, Devotress, The1fifi - (L-3)

Hoopla

- 1 - Jack - (L-11)

Jack

- 3 - Rayfrost, StrangerCoug, wolframnhart - (L-9)

wolframnhart

- 1 - curiouskarmadog - (L-11)

Players not voting: DocPotter, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum, Pomegranate

I would definitely not pick the same number as my teammates. That is what I would do, but I don't know what scum in

this

game has done. Maybe they did spread their choices out, maybe they did double up. But people are selfish, who is going to agree "sure I'll double up and likely not get a role." Also the fact that they only had so much time to choose their numbers, I don't know if they debated the issue enough.

It would take a mature mindset to be willing to sacrifice your chance at a role, to be hidden from number analysis. But is it even worth it for scum? As scum, you cannot afford to let town get many of the good roles by trying to get cute.

Perhaps a more visual approach to my theory would be helpful;

We have 9 sets of numbers, yes?

1) Socrates
2) Fate
3) bouncy.bouncy, Cobalt
4) RayFrost, Redcoyote
5) Jack, FeFiFoFum
6) StrangerCoug, The1fifi, wolframnhart
7) Devotress, Porkens, DocPotter
8) Ellibereth, Dramonic, Hoopla, TonyMontana
9) Farside, curiouskarmadog, Pomegranate, Faraday

Now, there is a good chance, that 5 of those 9 groups contain one scum each. An outside chance that only 4 of those groups contain scum, but one group has two. But for the sake of this exercise, lets assume it's best case scenario for town, and scum decided to spread themselves across 5 different numbers.

There is little logical reason to try for a lynch in Group 8 or Group 9. At best there is a 25% chance of a scum lynch, and a decent chance none are there at all. Groups 6 and 7 are slightly better, but again, if we go higher up the list, we have better chances of hitting in smaller groups.

The beauty of this is,

if

scum spread their choices across 5 different numbers, each group has equal chances of containing

a

scum. Basically, a better than 50/50 shot that a group has a scum in it. So by lynching Fate or Socrates, we have a ~50/50 shot of scum being in that group, but because they're the only ones in that group, it is 100% going to be them. As opposed to a 25% chance in a Group 8 or 9 lynch.

Even if scum have doubled up once, the same principal applies (higher up the list, the scummier), but with slightly weaker odds. But really, from reactions of the questions I've asked others about what they'd do as scum, I think it is more than likely than scum are in fact in 5 different groups (which is such a good position for town to be in)!

IVE GOT IT! If the higher up the list one is, the scummier one is, then obviously optimal play is to lynch straight down the list. We'll be sure to catch the scum this way.

unvote,vote:Socrates

There is no way this can go wrong. Nope, not at all. I mean, its not like the scum can manipulate where they are in the draft order, right?

Scum are also always perfect and it is absolutely inconceivable that they might have screwed up and ended up low in the draft order.

someone is going to take this post seriously, and then I am going to ram my head through my moniter.

[Socrates]

Seriously Hoopla, what you are pushing is just an elaborate version of what I voted fate for. You are trying to lay down the seeds of paranoia that just because people did well in the draft that they are likely scum.

Your logic is so absurdly pro-scum because it gives the scum a free pass to lynch all of the dangerous townies who did well in the draft and that would severely cripple the town.

NOTE TO THE TOWN: If Hoopla and/or Fate flip scum, then the scum team did really bad in the draft (whether intentionally or not) and we will find a majority of the scum in the back half of the draft order.

Now that my point has been made, my vote goes back to where it should be, on an actual scum:

unvote, vote:Fate

[Socrates]

Also, aside from a few roles such as Vig, most of the best roles for the scum (Rolecop, Roleblocker, Empowerer, and so on) are unlikely to be drafted by townies, regardless of where they are in the draft, so the scum team can afford to have at least a few of their members intentionally do poorly in the draft in order.

(Last game, Empowerer was drafted, like, 3rd from the bottom and Roleblocker never got drafted at all.)

[Socrates]

Also, aside from a few roles such as Vig, most of the best roles for the scum (Rolecop, Roleblocker, Empowerer, and so on) are unlikely to be drafted by townies, regardless of where they are in the draft, so the scum team can afford to have at least a few of their members intentionally do poorly in the draft in order.

(Last game, Empowerer was drafted, like, 3rd from the bottom and Roleblocker never got drafted at all.)

But Vi took Framer and he was like 2nd.

Vi is the exception that proves the rule. Going off of memory, I think the only other townie who drafted a pro-scum role that game was Dram, and he was last.

[Socrates]

IVE GOT IT! If the higher up the list one is, the scummier one is, then obviously optimal play is to lynch straight down the list. We'll be sure to catch the scum this way.

I know you are being sarcastic, but is this what Hoopla's really advocating?

Its dressed up all fancily, but yes, that is pretty much what her argument distills down to. Since my "group" contains only me, I am supossedly more likely to be scum, and, if you would see, the size of ones group is a direct function of where they are in the draft order. Its an indirect way of attacking the people that are high up in the draft while ignoring their actual play in the game.

You are trying to lay down the seeds of paranoia that just because

people did well in the draft that they are likely scum.

Your logic is so absurdly pro-scum

[...]

NOTE TO THE TOWN:

If Hoopla and/or Fate flip scum

, then the scum team did really bad in the draft (whether intentionally or not) and

we will find a majority of the scum in the back half of the draft order

.

(emphasis added)

Does anyone else see this as contradictory?

If Hoopla's role order logic is scummy, why are you using it against her and Fate?

What? I don't think you understand me.

If Hoopla is scum, then a scumbag was pushing logic that would encourage lynching people at the top of the draft order. What does this tell you about where most of the scum would actually be? C'mon, its not that complicated.

Also, emphasis on majority. I didn't say that every scumbag would be in last place or anything.

[Socrates]

Hey, Jack, what do YOU think about Fate?

[Socrates]

You are trying to lay down the seeds of paranoia that just because

people did well in the draft that they are likely scum.

Your logic is so absurdly pro-scum

[...]

NOTE TO THE TOWN:

If Hoopla and/or Fate flip scum

, then the scum team did really bad in the draft (whether intentionally or not) and

we will find a majority of the scum in the back half of the draft order

.

(emphasis added)

Does anyone else see this as contradictory?

Yes I do, since Socrates has the top slot and Fate is right behind him.

Unvote: Jack
Vote: Socrates

Partly that, partly because of my memory of getting quicklynched as SK on Day 1 last time for stating I didn't see a case on a player I was voting as I see only minor differences in context.

I'm sorry, but what?

I don't get what either of your points have to do with anything.

[Socrates]

If Hoopla is scum, then a scumbag was pushing logic that would encourage lynching people at the top of the draft order. What does this tell you about where most of the scum would actually be? C'mon, its not that complicated.

Why do you think that it's unlikely that scum didn't do well in the draft knowing now they got to talk before sending in their numbers?

Since my "group" contains only me, I am supposedly more likely to be scum, and, if you would see, the size of ones group is a direct function of where they are in the draft order

*looks at vote count*

See's fate as the main person with the most votes and looks back at socrates questionably.

*Is Confused.*

This is like, the 5th time this game that someone as thrown suspicion at me for reasons that make absolutely no sense, even ignoring all of the FOSes I got for winning the draft.

[Socrates]

Socrates, I think the tide is moving against you.

What a fascinating post. What was your intention by posting this, Red?

Also, why am I scummy?

[Socrates]

You are trying to lay down the seeds of paranoia that just because

people did well in the draft that they are likely scum.

Your logic is so absurdly pro-scum

[...]

NOTE TO THE TOWN:

If Hoopla and/or Fate flip scum

, then the scum team did really bad in the draft (whether intentionally or not) and

we will find a majority of the scum in the back half of the draft order

.

(emphasis added)

Does anyone else see this as contradictory?

Yes I do, since Socrates has the top slot and Fate is right behind him.

Unvote: Jack
Vote: Socrates

Partly that, partly because of my memory of getting quicklynched as SK on Day 1 last time for stating I didn't see a case on a player I was voting as I see only minor differences in context.

I'm sorry, but what?

I don't get what either of your points have to do with anything.

There are 22 players in this game. You are first in the draft, Fate is second, and Hoopla is 17th. Fate being scum is not indicative of the scum in general doing poorly in the draft according to your logic, as 2

<

22/2.

My god, why bother defending myself if nobody bothers to listen.

Also, emphasis on majority. I didn't say that every scumbag would be in last place or anything.

I also certainly wouldn't call going, say, 2,19,20,21,22 doing

good

in the draft, but thats just me.

[Socrates]

Socrates, I think the tide is moving against you.

What a fascinating post. What was your intention by posting this, Red?

Also, why am I scummy?

It's also a straight up lie, considering the fact that Dramonic is the only person other than you who has even come close to supporting her rediculous plan.

[Socrates]

And yes I am in a pissy mood. How could you tell?

[Socrates]

why?

Socrates is being aggressive and hostile toward the plan, while advocating that we use it (or a form of it) to his own benefit. That seems anti-town at the very least.

The only point I've seen so far against Fate is that he didn't read the game with a magnifying glass. Additionally, his wagon formed way too fast, even for a game as quick as this one.

Why do you think I am voting fate, Red?

---

What was your intention by posting this, Red?

I clarified it in the following post. I just meant that it seems as though people are opening up to Hoopla's plan, because I certainly do not see any other reason for Fate's wagon to be as large as it is. There was no scumslip, so far as I can tell.

Well, you see, Maybe its because I was in a bad mood, but it looked to me like you were trying to provoke me.

I mean your post was pretty much "You goin' down, Socrates!" without actually providing any real benifit at all other than to annoy me, and then when I got angry, you could be like "Look, frustrated scum!". I've seen to much stuff like that in the past, and it read as scummy to me. But then you didn't capitalize on it when I did show anger, so ya.

Also, emphasis on majority. I didn't say that every scumbag would be in last place or anything.

Bear in mind that you're one of the greatest minds in the history of western civilization, while I'm just a little ol' mafia player.

But it seems to me like you're trying to downplay what is still, ultimately, "we should focus on X numbers of the draft order to catch our scum".

Nah, I see it as "We should focus on what the scum were doing in order to catch our scum." (Assuming a hypothetical Hoopla-scumflip, of course). And even then, if that actually happened, I would just use it as a good rule of thumb when looking at the player list, and wouldn't use it as a crutch to push through a lynch. That would be bad.

--

Anyway, in other news, Fate did the right thing by refusing to claim, the way this wagon reached L-1 was horrendus and I don't think the scumtell I voted him for is worth a lynch, (which isn't to say that I am forgetting it, jokes are a great way to slip in ideas without really commiting to them, Fate) so time to bail on this wagon.

This is the new place for me to cast my attention:

I believe it is a good time for you to claim, Fate.

I think that he should claim, even though I don't agree with Hoopla's plan that prompted this.

unvote,vote:Pomegranate

[Socrates]

I said that a claim from fate was good because (I thought, at least, that) he was at L-1. I am of the opinion thatsomeone should claim at L-1 (barring special circumstances).

Wow.

You are so obviously scum I am worried that something tricky is going on.

[Socrates]

Seriously, we should be lynching Pomegranate right now.

What part of disagreeing with the logic that created a wagon and thinking that the primary pusher of said wagon is scum, but still wanting the waggoned person should still claim doesn't absolutely scream scum to you guys?

[Socrates]

I am illiterate.

Seriously, we should be lynching Pomegranate right now.

What part of disagreeing with the logic that created a wagon and thinking that the primary pusher of said wagon is scum, but still wanting the waggoned person to claim doesn't absolutely scream scum to you guys?

[Socrates]

CKD, your obvious gimmick says nothing about your alignment.

Thoughts on Pomegranate?

[Socrates]

V/LA until Monday.

[Socrates]

8 votes in a little over 1 page? The wagon is an apathy driven lurker lynch? We are less than 24 hours from deadline?

FeFiFoFum is going to flip town. Wheee!

[Socrates]

vote: Pomegranate

Fos: TonyMontana

smoldering look: Hoopla

[Socrates]

8 votes in a little over 1 page? The wagon is an apathy driven lurker lynch? We are less than 24 hours from deadline?

FeFiFoFum is going to flip town. Wheee!

This feels fake to me. It's like a statement of disapproval, but it's only made when it's certain the wagon is going to go through, which makes it read like he's fishing for town credit for being anti-Fefi wagon.

I also think scum are more likely to make these sort of declarations prior to a lynch, because they can orchestrate their stance on the situation accordingly, due to knowledge of what the flip will be. Why would a naive townsperson make such a grand statement? It's an unnecessary risk - why risk Fefi being scum, as it incriminates you. But then if he flips town, you don't get that much credit anyway, so why risk it?

Uh, because I believed it? That many votes in that little time for that kind of reasoning never actually results in a dead scumbag.

Also note that Bouncy.Bouncy had more votes than FeFi did when people started pileing up on FeFi and is also guilty of pretty much anything you could argue that FeFi was and it it shouldn't be hard to connect the dots.

I might be open to a bouncy lynch just based on that occurance alone.

[Socrates]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 10

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 2 - Fate, wolframnhart - (L-8)

Pomegranate

- 2 - Socrates, Porkens - (L-8)

Socrates

- 1 - StrangerCoug - (L-9)

wolframnhart

- 2 - Jack, Ellibereth - (L-8)

Players not voting: Bouncy.Bouncy, curiouskarmadog, Devotress, DocPotter, Faraday, Farside, Hoopla, Pomegranate, Rayfrost, RedCoyote, The1fifi, TonyMontana

Elli is so amazingly full of townie-ness that if anyone even considers voting for him they should be barred from playing mafia for the rest of their life.

[Socrates]

Hey, I wonder what Pomegranate thinks about all of this!

...

...

*crickets*

...

...

Bouncy isn't the only lurker who has contributed nothing. And he doesn't have that scummy request for a claim either.

[Socrates]

YOU ROLECOP YOUR SCUM SUSPECTS BECAUSE THEY ARE THE ONES WHO ARE GOING TO LIE ABOUT THEIR ROLE.

That is all.

[Socrates]

YOU ROLECOP YOUR SCUM SUSPECTS BECAUSE THEY ARE THE ONES WHO ARE GOING TO LIE ABOUT THEIR ROLE.

That is all.

^--- scum. not voting bouncy

Pffft. He's at L-2 and Fate is right about everyone checking in before he is lynched. Putting him at L-1 could let him selfhammer and the town lose out on night actions.

[Socrates]

ALL EYES ON SOCRATES

I am the cop, not the vig. Why use a gun when a badge will do?

Pomegranate is scum, BY INVESTIGATION.

(I investigated Hoopla night 1: Town)

vote:Pomegranate

[Socrates]

Socrates, what was your reasoning for going for cop instead of vig? Why did you investigate me on Night 1?

I hold no delusions about my ability to scumhunt, and I would probably do more bad then good with a vig shot, while I can still catch scum with the cop ability. I was kinda hoping that people would all just assume that I was going to take vig and not draft it and there would be no vig in the game at all (probably the best situation of all, in my eyes).

I sent in an investigation on you after we got into that big argument about number analysis as I thought you were scum trying to push an agenda to try and lynch the top town power roles.

I probably should have changed my investigation to Pomegranate later in the day, but if you remember, I didn't get back from my V/LA until something like 12 hours before deadline, and didn't think to do so.

[Socrates]

Huh.. Wha... but... hmm?

[Socrates]

I WAS FRAMED!

I'M INNOCENT I TELL YOU!

The mafia must have a framer and set me up!

Ohwait.

The mafia must have a bus driver and redirected my investigation!

Er...

I must secretly have been insane! Yea, thats it! Hoopla is scum!

vote: Hoopla

[Socrates]

Ok, I am going to be completely straight with you guys.

I'm not actually the cop. I am the bomb.

I looked at the wagon's building on me yesterday, and combined with my certainty that Pomegranate was scum, I decided I would try for a gambit.

I would fakeclaim cop with a guilty on Pomegranate.

The plan was to catch a scum pomegranate and get the mafia to NK me that night, killing two scumbags at once.

But alas, it was not to be.

So ya, don't lynch me.

Faraday is scum that knows I'm another mislynch and is scared to commit, btw.

[Socrates]

Nonono Fate. Let me fix that for you:

I'm

scum

town blah blah blah my gambit failed here's another gambit blah don't kill me.

There. Now its accurate.

I WAS FRAMED!

I'M INNOCENT I TELL YOU!

The mafia must have a framer and set me up!

Ohwait.

The mafia must have a bus driver and redirected my investigation!

Er...

I must secretly have been insane! Yea, thats it! Hoopla is scum!

vote: Hoopla

^^^ You're a secretly insane bomb socrates?

I was fishing to see who would jump on my wagon like a ravenous tiger (townies) and who would hesitate and try to play cautious kittens (scumbags).

Anyone who was town should have instantly voted me the second they checked the thread 'cause a quicklynch would have helped the town (if I was actually scum).

[Socrates]

I've been hammered?

Fricken A.

Sorry town. Congratulations scum, is what I would say except I did most of the work for you.

Sorry about my stupidity. I'm never gambiting again. This game shall go down as my shame.

Bleh.

So, who was it? Im going to go out on a limb and say... fifi, Fate, Doc, Jack, and Faraday?

[Socrates]

Strange Soc, how your list and Fate's claim list work with each other.

Jack, StrangerCoug, The1fifi, DocPotter

fifi, Fate, Doc, Jack, and Faraday

Three people the same. The difference, Devotress and Faraday and Fate.

Some sort of desperate attempt to deflect from Fate no doubt.

As I said. Good try Soc. No cigar.

Drat. You got me. Fate is my scumbuddy.

unvote, vote:Fate

I should mention that the bomb is somebody above me, Hoopla, so one of Socrates, Fate, and Jack has to be it. (In my opinion, it is least likely Jack.)

You fool! You have doomed us all!

(Stranger is obv town BTW.)

[Socrates]

I don't know if lynch Socrates is the best town move right now. It feels like we're just playing into scum's hands. They would have known what was going to happen if Socrates did this - I can tell you now, it wasn't just a, 'hey, i'm cop lol! lets lynch pom' thing. There must be a reason why they are doing this.

Like I said, if we are playing into scum's hands it is already too late. SC and DP just seem like scum trying to work your theory against us, which makes me hopeful Socrates is the vig.

I'll vote Socrates when I get back from work tonight.

But why would scum do this cop fakeclaim play if it didn't improve their chances of winning? If Socrates really was the vig, I'd expect more people picking up my arguments (or creating some of their own) about why Socrates isn't a good play and probably isn't the vig. The town consensus seems to be that Socrates is scum, but have no idea if he's the vig or not.

I'm saying we need to deal with this later and find the scum vig now, otherwise it will just be two more town kills. I don't think your argument for Socrates possibly being the vig is too solid. As you said yourself, it just seems like hope more than anything, which is not enough. Logically, it doesn't make sense for Socrates to be scum and put himself in this situation.

If Socrates is the vig, it means scum also have the cop, because Socrates must have known cop was a safe claim. If this was the case, why not claim cop with innocents (maybe even innocents on corpses), or even a guilty on a scumbuddy? He would have known claiming a fake-guilty is only a short-term survival strategy, which isn't anywhere near optimum scumvig play.

Now, I might be in a biased position here, but I think the "lynch anyone but Socrates" plan makes a lot of sense. Why aren't people listening to Hoopla more?

[Socrates]

EVERYONE SHUT UP UNTIL AFTER THE FLIP.

They're gonna be waiting a long time, seeing as how I haven't been hammered yet.

I'm scheduled to have a presidential pardon soon anyway, so I'm not worri -- OH SNAP I SHOULDN"T HAVE SAID THAT.

A few pages back Fate said I was one of the scummy votes on his original wagon, even though earlier in the game he said I was one of the better votes on his wagon. Thought that merited pointing out.


Anyhow, are we waiting more time to get night actions in, or is it safe to throw a vote up on socrates? I have a very hard time believing this was the townie gambit he claims.

I also have a bridge in San Fransisco to sell you, but you wouldn't believe that either, would you? Is it that hard for you to trust others Dev? I'M ONLY TRYING TO MAKE YOU HAPPY!

(Devotress is also scum. I mean come on, this is the culmination of all of her contributions to the game? Not to mention she is also hesitating to vote me, which is turbo scummy as per my previous posts.)

[Socrates]

I should mention that the bomb is somebody above me, Hoopla, so one of Socrates, Fate, and Jack has to be it. (In my opinion, it is least likely Jack.)

Directed at Hoopla, hmm? I smell scum trying to buy Socrates more time (bomb is above me, since Socrates claimed it, it has to be him!) What makes you sure Jack is the least likely?

Also, @whoever, Socrates didn't fakeclaim Doctor because the scum don't have the doctor this game, so he would've been scared of a counter-claim.

And i should mention the vig is someone above me.

Will look at this again if Socrates flips non-vig.

Why the hell would I draft doctor? Its a nearly useless role, especially if the scum end up with the empowerer. Drafting doctor with the first pick would have been a utter waste of the pick, and it would be an obvious fake-claim.

[Socrates]

Here, let me help you out there.

unvote, vote:Socrates

[Socrates]

I was shocked, shocked, when Fate bought Hoopla's defense of Jack. We lose if jack isn't the vig and doesn't hit the vig? That was essentially the case anyway!

My two cents on setup:

The empowerer is too powerful. At least with this set of roles. By itself, the role obsoletes the bulletproof, doc, roleblocker (for pro-town use), and (I think) the bodyguard. When I asked fate why the hell would anyone take a role as useless as the doc, I was dead serious. People were surprised that nobody took any of those roles, but why would they? With the empowerer, they were useless roles.

I would either take out the empowerer, or take out at least a few of the roles that it obsoletes and replace them with something that isn't.

[Socrates]

I honestly think this game is vulnerable to a day 1 massclaim, working from the bottom up. Supplanting the number analysis with a massclaim would leave the town with a very good idea of where the scum will be located. Consider what would have happened if we had done it this game.

For the sake of the argument, lets assume that I truthfully claim Cop, jack fakeclaims vengeful, fifi claimes vanilla the tried to get vengeful, Hoopla truthfully claims failed governor, Faraday fakeclaims Doctor. This is about what we were thinking we would do if we had to claim.

We would be left with this:

Socrates claim Cop Cop
Fate claim Bomb Bomb
bouncy.bouncy claim Role Cop Role Cop
Cobalt claim Watcher Watcher
RayFrost claim Tracker Tracker
Redcoyote claim Bomb Vanilla
Jack claim vengeful vengeful (actually vig)
FeFiFoFum claim Universal Backup Universal Backup
StrangerCoug claim Bomb Vanilla
The1fifi claim Vengeful vanilla (actually vengeful)
wolframnhart claim Neighborizer Neighborizer
Devotress claim Role Cop Vanilla
Porkens claim Bomb Vanilla
DocPotter claim Vengeful Lynchee Vanilla
Ellibereth claim one-Shot Governor One-Shot Governor
Dramonic claim Universal Backup Vanilla
Hoopla claim One-Shot Governor Vanilla
TonyMontana claim Bomb Vanilla
Farside claim Vengeful Lynchee Vanilla
curiouskarmadog claim Watcher Vanilla
Pomegranate claim Universal Backup Vanilla
Faraday claim Doctor Vanilla (actually empowerer)

First things first: Faraday would be outed as scum. Cobalt, and Rayfrost would essentially be cleared as town. Scum have little motivation to take these roles and we have other claims to corroborate that those roles are actually in the game. No vig claim means that the vig is scum if he exists (obv). This by itself makes me VERY likely scum, even if I am not the vig, because a scum vig would only know to try for vig if they knew I wasn't going to take the role. So on a cursory glance, we have two town and 2 scum, with the knowledge to look out for the vig.

Now another thing, while roles have no correlation with alignment, telling the truth about one's role is still makes someone slightly more likely to be town. This is because the scum are busy trying to hide the vig, so at least 1 scum and probably more are lieing about their role.



Now, lets look at the universal backups:

FeFiFoFum, Dramonic, and Pomegranate. If FeFiFoFum is town, then Dramonic and Pomegranate are very likely telling the truth about their claim. If FeFiFoFum is lieing about his role, then Dramonic (or someone between them) is scum. Pomegranate is likely town in this scenario unless both FeFi and Dramonic are scum, which is unlikely. (remember, we went bottom up, and universal backup itsn't guaranteed to be drafted like the bomb)

Conclusion:

Pom is probably town.
If FeFi is scum and lieing, then there is another scum below him.

We can draw similar conclusions about the Bomb group and the vengeful group.

For all of the doubles: if one of them lied, they both probably lied. if one of them told the truth, they both probably told the truth.

Wolf would very probably be telling the truth.

I haven't thought this out perfectly so I might be wrong about some of this, and there are probably more conclusions that I could draw from this, but I am too lazy right now.

Now cross reference this with number analysis and an increasing pool of town flips as the game goes on, along with good old scum hunting, and the scum would need to play absolutely brilliantly in order to win.

Thoughts?

[Socrates]

EBWOP: Faraday was going to claim ATTEMPTED doctor. Not actual doctor.