Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Pomegranate]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 1 - RedCoyote - (L-11)

Dramonic

- 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)

Fate

- 9 - Hoopla, Socrates, Ellibereth, Cobalt, Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, Faraday, Devotress, The1fifi - (L-3)

FeFiFoFum

- 2 - Jack, Fate - (L-10)

Jack

- 3 - Rayfrost, StrangerCoug, wolframnhart - (L-9)

wolframnhart

- 1 - curiouskarmadog - (L-11)

Players not voting: DocPotter, Dramonic, Farside, FeFiFoFum, Pomegranate

Hi, confirm and all.

Spyrex should already know from PYP 1, but

I will always be V/LA Friday afternoon until Saturday evening. It is a weekly V/LA

. I may be able to read the thread in hour or two, but don't count on it, because the V/LA will kick in soon, and I have other things to do.

[Pomegranate]

Extremely large, time consuming catchup post here now!!

Vote FeFiFoFum

For doing the RVS wrong, and voting Socrates (srsly guys, if he's not dead tommorow he's either BP or scum).

But scum may not kill him for that exact reason- WIFOM.

--

BUT, it doesn't really matter. Number speculation is a waste of time. All that follows is WIFOM (Maybe scum had a few players all pick the same numbers as a perfect defense? Maybe they tried to spread things out to get more power?).

I would be extremely surprised if scum decided to all pick the same numbers- getting PRs is better for them than having that defense.

--

also, I am confused (

mod feel free to jump in with an answer

)

you said in 25 (of the sign up).

Also, if you're up on that list and you haven't got an alignment from me (I think everyone thus far has but) please send me a PM.

I didnt even /in until 33

soooo, how did that work? you assigned alignments before everyone inned?

I'm guessing he (randomly) assigned alignments to the signup numbers, and whoever filled that spot got that alignment. Having pre-inned, I received my alignment early.

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Jack votes TM when 2 other people had 1/1 as their number. Plus hoopla did announce in the thread the numbers she picked so........???

But people could have sent in draft numbers before her.

I don't think that there is that much to learn from draft numbers. I think that scum probably did spread their numbers out, but CKD brings up the good point that it's likely that not all the scum checked the QT (or whatever) before submitting numbers. We can't learn much from the numbers now. Possibly later in the game- we'll see.

--

watching the following of the fate wagon 10 to 1 scum is on it. People just gliding by with a bw vote.

Yes definitely. But there are also townies who are enticed by the look of a good bandwagon to jump on.

--

Trust me, number analysis will win this game for us.

No it won't. Certainly not yet. I agree with Jack here:

If it's [draft number discussion] useful, it will be later in the game.

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It was a combination of reasons. I will likely want to lynch you or Socrates or a double today, and will probably pick the scummiest one of that set of players (barring significant slips from low draft picks).

You are currently the scummiest of that set, for reasons outside number analysis.

Trust me, number analysis will win this game for us.

This post WINS.

--

The beauty of this is, if scum spread their choices across 5 different numbers, each group has equal chances of containing a scum. Basically, a better than 50/50 shot that a group has a scum in it. So by lynching Fate or Socrates, we have a ~50/50 shot of scum being in that group, but because they're the only ones in that group, it is 100% going to be them. As opposed to a 25% chance in a Group 8 or 9 lynch.

I do

not

agree. Fate or Socrates do not each have a 50% percent chance of being scum. Sorry.

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Hi fate, why did you cite fake meta?

Elli, please explain.

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I'm going to treat the number thing like meta, i.e. it can help a case but behavior in thread is still numero uno.

^^^ This.

--

I genuinely saw no reason for why mafia would want to pick different numbers.

Um, isn't there every reason scum want to pick different numbers? Like, say, to get PRs?

--

Future?

In the near future I am thinking about running this again (17 town - 5 mafia I think).

This is a good thing to keep under our hats. I mean, I'm assuming everyone already had a general number like this in their head, but it's still good information.

Why? Spyrex gave the setup in the signup thread.

--

question for all, who here played the first game? and can I have a link to it?

I did, but ad to replace out, which was not my own choice. So I am back.

Also, in that game there were two scum groups, each with three players, and an SK, as opposed to one scum group of five players.

--

I could totally go for a jack or fate lynch. or hoopla.

I'm willing to go for Hoopla. Then fate, then Jack.

--

Today we have a ~50 chance of hitting scum if we go for Socrates or Fate.

Seeing this statistic once again, I must ask

Hoopla: could you show me the math behind this?

I looked at 137. It fails.

--

Can someone tell me if in the first PyP game the first and second draft picks were killed early, ad if not would a former scum from that game say why?

I'm wondering if the wagon on Fate is worth it on the basis tha a town Fate might be an early scum target, as Fate himself alluded to concerning Socrates.

All I can remember off the top of my head is that Cobalt, obviously (he claimed D2, but it was known before then) was the vig. He survived un til the game ended.

--

Vote: Hoopla

.

HoS: Fate, Jack

.

[Pomegranate]

Pom, the numbers are accurate;

If scum are spread 1-1-1-1-1 over five different numbers, then Socrates and Fate have a ~56% chance each of being scum.

If scum are spread 1-1-1-2 over four different numbers, then Socrates and Fate have a ~44% chance each of being scum.

They have lower odds for combinations like 1-2-2 and 1-1-3 etc, which should be considered if you think it's a realistic possibility scum would do it. However, this quote suggests you don't think that;

I would be extremely surprised if scum decided to all pick the same numbers- getting PRs is better for them than having that defense.

Which is a good point, but contradicts being against the numbers. Because the numbers for 1-1-1-1-1 and 1-1-1-2 are solid.

Everyone wanted to be highest on the draft. Scum did too. I agree with the numbers 1-1-1-1-1 and 1-1-1-2. Scum did know what their buddies were going to pick- or at least could have known (they only had 24 hours, and I'd bet that at least one sent in numbers before checking the QT). But scum only knew their five numbers (collectively), not the seventeen other players' numbers. I guess this doesn't look like much. But there's something else:

The consensus decides Z is the scummiest in the game. Z claims vig - it is worth lynching as extra town kills aren't worth the possibility of scum having double kills. That is such a ridiculously powerful ability that can cripples towns so quickly.

The consensus decides Y is the scummiest in the game. Y claims cop - it is probably not worth lynching as it's town value is far better than it's scum value (nothing).

The consensus decides X is the scummiest in the game. X claims Governor - it is definitely worth lynching as it has so much more scum value than town. Preventing lynches deprives town of information, and gives scum another free nightkill. The only town motivation is preventing scum from having this role, but it is not worth the risk of leaving a potential scum governor alive.

The problem with this is that the cop is outed, and likely killed that night. Yes, there is a doctor. But there's also an empowerer. Or he's roleblocked. I don't think it's worth it to out a cop, because once he's outed, it's unlikely he'll get any investigations. I don't think we should find scum this way. As said previously, by Elli, if I'm not mistaken, it should be treated like meta- a good addition to a case, but not a case of iy's own.

[Pomegranate]

I believe it is a good time for you to claim, Fate.

I think that he should claim, even though I don't agree with Hoopla's plan that prompted this.

[Pomegranate]

That was me. (It

looked

like I was logged on... )

[Pomegranate]

Say, if someone gats to L-1 on page three, or if there's some special mechanic, like say Zoraster's one where everyone can switch their votes for 24 hours after a lynch (sorry, not such a good example because sometimes 24 hours isn't enough. I can't think of any better mechanic as an example ATM).

[Pomegranate]

Depends on the size of the game.

[Pomegranate]

I said that a claim from fate was good because (I thought, at least, that) he was at L-1. I am of the opinion thatsomeone should claim at L-1 (barring special circumstances).

That was me. (It

looked

like I was logged on... )

I would suggest that both you and your sister uncheck the option to remember your passwords. (You don't happen to know each other's, do you?) and that the two of you use different skins.

The option is already unchecked, but this is what happens: I will be on MS, then minimize my window. Plum will get on MS, sign me out (I will be automatically logged on since in a different open window I'm already logged on). Later, I'll get back on my original window, and even though it will still say I'm logged in, I'm not, and I must refresh first, or something. So it looked like I was logged on since I didn't refresh, but when I posted it was on her account, because she was the last person logged on. We both use SubSilver, and that's not changing. I don't know Plum's password, but it's possible she knows mine (but it's even more likely that she forgot it,).

Real post later tonight or tomorrow (since I'm off), Will respond to farside.

[Pomegranate]

@POM: Why would you think scum would not check their QT to try and get themselves sorted out on their number picks so they could have a better chance to be higher on the list?

I don't think that there is that much to learn from draft numbers. I think that scum probably did spread their numbers out, but CKD brings up the good point that it's likely that not all the scum checked the QT (or whatever) before submitting numbers. We can't learn much from the numbers now. Possibly later in the game- we'll see.

Wow and a contratiction all in the same post

Um, isn't there every reason scum want to pick different numbers? Like, say, to get PRs?

I really hate people that keep saying this:

Everyone wanted to be highest on the draft. Scum did too. I agree with the numbers 1-1-1-1-1 and 1-1-1-2. Scum did know what their buddies were going to pick- or at least could have known (they only had 24 hours, and I'd bet that at least one sent in numbers before checking the QT). But scum only knew their five numbers (collectively), not the seventeen other players' numbers. I guess this doesn't look like much. But there's something else:

It's like inside information almost on scum

[...]

My scum suspects are bouncy, jack, porkens and most especally pom. Pom and one other person expressed this desire to state that mafia didn't talk during the numbers talk. It's like an inside information into a scum chat that no one but scum should know.
Then she completely contradicts that comment in the same post pointing out that scum would like a top spot. Wishy, washy mmmmmm

unvote:
vote: Pom

fos: bouncy, Jack and porkens

I think scum would try to coordinate, but I think that it just might not happen with only 24 hours, probably different timezones, possibly V/LAs, and other factors that can mess it up. But I do think scum want PRs and all, obviously. I don't think there's a contradiction.

Also, if it's so likely that Socrates and Fate are scum, why are you voting me? You're following my logic (of voting someone you find scummy, not entirely based off of numbers), not your numbers logic.

--

I need to give Pom/Plum a closer read later this week.

I'm Pom. Stop it.

--

I am illiterate.

Seriously, we should be lynching Pomegranate right now.

What part of disagreeing with the logic that created a wagon and thinking that the primary pusher of said wagon is scum, but still wanting the waggoned person to claim doesn't absolutely scream scum to you guys?

I generally ask people to claim at L-1, regardless of what I think of the wagon. We had this discussion already. You never said why I didn't make sense. I will continue to ignore this argument until you do- otherwise we will just be going in circles.

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Bouncy bouncy should post too, it's been a while. I'm missing that guy (stop lurkan)

I'm not much of a D1 poster. What do you want me to comment on?

Everyone needs to participate. What do you think of the numbers discussion? (If you already said something about it I must have missed it.)

--

To end off, the logic on my wagon is FAIL. It's made up of two things, if I'm not mistaken:

- I didn't want Fate to be lynched without claiming
- I said that I find it possible that not all the scum were able to coordinate draft numbers.

[Pomegranate]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 2 - RedCoyote, Devotress - (L-10)

Dramonic

- 2 - TonyMontana, Fate - (L-10)

Fate

- 5 - Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, The1fifi, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum - (L-7)

FeFiFoFum

- 4 - Rayfrost, Faraday, wolframnhart, DocPotter - (L-8)

Hoopla

- 2 - Pomegranate, Jack - (L-10)

Pomegranate

- 4 - Socrates, Farside, Ellibereth, Cobalt - (L-8)

Socrates

- 2 - StrangerCoug, Hoopla - (L-10)

wolframnhart

- 1 - curiouskarmadog - (L-11)

Players not voting:

None

The case on pomegranate seems off to me, though I can't comment on cobalt's "she's playing like scum pom", since I've only played one game with pom where she got replaced very early.

AKA PYP I.

[Pomegranate]

[
To end off, the logic on my wagon is FAIL. It's made up of two things, if I'm not mistaken:

- I didn't want Fate to be lynched without claiming
- I said that I find it possible that not all the scum were able to coordinate draft numbers.

1. You didn't threaten to hammer me, and say "claim" and I was in no danger of being lynched (as anyone with common sense can see).
2. I agree with you that it is unlikely they fully co-ordinated. I have other reasons for voting you though:

Unvote

Vote: Pom

No wagon is ever fail. I welcomed my wagon and it was based off even less than yours (imo), and look at all the information it brought.

I consider someone at L-1 in danger of being lynched..

You have other reasons for voting me? Unless you have a specific reason not to state them, please explain them.

hmmmm
Devotrescum with Pom?

You said you still had to read up on me? Have you? If so, what's your conclusion?

[Pomegranate]

I did not say that we can't use the numbers to our benefit. I said that they shouldn't be our primary mode of scumhunting. K?

[Pomegranate]

farside, look at post 186:

I'm going to treat the number thing like meta, i.e. it can help a case but behavior in thread is still numero uno.

^^^ This.

I think numbers are good. I just think scumhunting is better. If there's a reasonable case that combines both, then it's all good.

And you're right, my vote on Hoopla is out of date.

Unvote

.

[Pomegranate]

Like me.

[Pomegranate]

I disagree.

I'm not fighting with that, but it doesn't change the fact that girls rock.

Plum is awesome. It's impossible to diss her anyway, don't try.

High five, same here!

[Pomegranate]

So we agree on three out of four. Pretty good.

[Pomegranate]

Weekly V/LA

.

[Pomegranate]

Hoopla needs to be lynched. There is no way her flat out rejection of the objections to her analysis is anything other than deliberate.

I always thought stubborness was a towntell.

I think it's a null-tell. (Okay, now I'm really gone.)

[Pomegranate]

I'm very behind in this game. Hopefully I'll have a chance to catch up tonight.

[Pomegranate]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 10

Players not voting: Bouncy.Bouncy, curiouskarmadog, Devotress, DocPotter, Ellibereth, Faraday, Farside, Fate, Hoopla, Jack, Pomegranate, Porkens, Rayfrost, RedCoyote, Socrates, StrangerCoug, The1fifi, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

Okay, I'm very behind this game. Hopefully I'll be able to catch up and follow D2.

[Pomegranate]

IIRC, they were only a day or two apart.

[Pomegranate]

Socrates is extremely likely town guys. Trust me.

Um, don't do anything stupid...

[Pomegranate]

I'm not saying in the slightest that you're not serious. I'll try for the favor.

[Pomegranate]

StrangerCoug and Hoopla have voted Socrates, if I'm not mistaken.

[Pomegranate]

Everyone: I'm sorry, I have two large reports due tomorrow. I know I'm behind, and if I can't catch up be Sunday I will replace out.

[Pomegranate]

Well, i supose the vig isn't in our side? =/

I don't think we can be sure... sometimes there are smart vigs who shoot scum, and sometimes there aren't.

--

If he was a scum vig, trying to push for a pom myslinch, but without sucess, he would have killed her during the night to.

I think that that's the last thing he would do if he was a scum vig.

--

If the #1 drafted is town, he won't go for vig. Its too..ermm.. random i'd say, since it damages town the most, lots of times. A much more beneficial role would be cop, or even bomb.

If the #1 drafted is scum, he probably wouldn't go for vig, cause as i said, it usually does more damage to town than to scum.

Yes he would. It's so worth it to have TWO scum directed kills per 'night'.

--

If the #1 drafted is town, he won't go for vig. Its too..ermm.. random i'd say, since it damages town the most, lots of times. A much more beneficial role would be cop, or even bomb.

If the #1 drafted is scum, he probably wouldn't go for vig, cause as i said, it usually does more damage to town than to scum.

Town would pick it to keep if from scum. Scum would pick it so that they could kill TWO pro-town players each night.

--

[Pomegranate]

Hi guys. GG scum. Maybe more comments later.

Pom

[Pomegranate]

Also, I think the fact that scum had a chance to coordinate like that gave them a real advantage that IMO hindered the town enough that I don't see it as balanced.