Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[RedCoyote]

Why are guys asking me questions, instead of the other 21 people?

Why are you being so defensive?

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I don't get the idea that someone like TM is more likely to be scum because he chose (1,1). If anything, wouldn't players who "covered" more bases by voting different numbers be more likely to be scum? I don't see how it changes anything, and I honestly would've picked the same numbers regardless of my alignment.

Also, the mafia could talk about their draft choices, but not their number choices, correct?

vote: bouncy.bouncy

[RedCoyote]

Why BOUNCY over Fate?

To be honest, I didn't really pay much attention to the scum stuff either. Since I'm not scum, I didn't read it.

Anyways, it seemed like bouncy tried to sneak a piggyback vote in there.

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okay so the theory is that since scum could talk to each other before they picked their numbers they knew what numbers to avoid so they could be higher on the list or at least not pick the same number as a scum buddy.

Right, so, I mean, this is still a stretch at best. Assuming every scum player was talked in QT before they chose their numbers (which I dont), all they know is not to pick numbers already chosen. This is just very convoluted for a scumtell, you just can't point to player A and say "looks like they choose numbers with scum help" and then player B and say "looks like they choose numbers with no help".

[RedCoyote]

Future?

In the near future I am thinking about running this again (17 town - 5 mafia I think).

This is a good thing to keep under our hats. I mean, I'm assuming everyone already had a general number like this in their head, but it's still good information.

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also, I hate the term "to be honest'...have you not been honest yet red?

To be honest, I use it a lot, but I'll try not to do it in this game.

But to answer your question, yes I have. I only say "to be honest" when I'm making a confession of sorts.

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Well I'll find it one of these days, heading to work now. Either way, a game in which someone with a female sounding name replaced someone during N1 and then came in D2 and claimed cop with a guilty exists.

Somewhere out there.

Well, I think you need to retract your assertion at the very least, and take another objective look at Elli after doing so.

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IVE GOT IT! If the higher up the list one is, the scummier one is, then obviously optimal play is to lynch straight down the list. We'll be sure to catch the scum this way.

I know you are being sarcastic, but is this what Hoopla's really advocating?

You are trying to lay down the seeds of paranoia that just because

people did well in the draft that they are likely scum.

Your logic is so absurdly pro-scum

[...]

NOTE TO THE TOWN:

If Hoopla and/or Fate flip scum

, then the scum team did really bad in the draft (whether intentionally or not) and

we will find a majority of the scum in the back half of the draft order

.

(emphasis added)

Does anyone else see this as contradictory?

If Hoopla's role order logic is scummy, why are you using it against her and Fate?

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Hoopla, assuming I agree with your post 137, which I conceptually do, how do you propose we choose which groups (or neighborhoods) have scum in them? I mean, is Socrates right? Do you really propose we lynch straight down the list until we hit paydirt?

[RedCoyote]

Socrates, I think the tide is moving against you.

[RedCoyote]

In the sense that Hoopla's plan is gaining traction.

[RedCoyote]

Also, I got to say I agree with StrangerCoug. If we're really doing this, Socrates seems like the better lynch than Fate.

[RedCoyote]

why?

Socrates is being aggressive and hostile toward the plan, while advocating that we use it (or a form of it) to his own benefit. That seems anti-town at the very least.

The only point I've seen so far against Fate is that he didn't read the game with a magnifying glass. Additionally, his wagon formed way too fast, even for a game as quick as this one.

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What was your intention by posting this, Red?

I clarified it in the following post. I just meant that it seems as though people are opening up to Hoopla's plan, because I certainly do not see any other reason for Fate's wagon to be as large as it is. There was no scumslip, so far as I can tell.

Also, emphasis on majority. I didn't say that every scumbag would be in last place or anything.

Bear in mind that you're one of the greatest minds in the history of western civilization, while I'm just a little ol' mafia player.

But it seems to me like you're trying to downplay what is still, ultimately, "we should focus on X numbers of the draft order to catch our scum".

And yes I am in a pissy mood. How could you tell?

No worries. Please note I haven't changed my vote yet however.

[RedCoyote]

Tell me why would scum not want to communicate their number picks?

I've since revised that position now that I understand the idea better.

[RedCoyote]

Why do you think I am voting fate, Red?

I think he created a stink sometime earlier in the game when it was suggested that he should know better as town than to skip one of the rules. My impression is that all the votes on his wagon are more or less attributed to this.

I mean your post was pretty much "You goin' down, Socrates!" without actually providing any real benifit at all other than to annoy me, and then when I got angry, you could be like "Look, frustrated scum!". I've seen to much stuff like that in the past, and it read as scummy to me. But then you didn't capitalize on it when I did show anger, so ya.

I know what you mean. I made the post right after that to try and clarify that I wasn't trying to be a dick.

And even then, if that actually happened, I would just use it as a good rule of thumb when looking at the player list, and wouldn't use it as a crutch to push through a lynch. That would be bad.

Okay. Rest assured I'm not as interested in pushing your wagon so much as I am riding in it.

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I need to give Pom/Plum a closer read later this week.

[RedCoyote]

Can we get more votes on a bouncy wagon for a little bit?

I agree with this. I've read over some of the more recent arguments, and I'm still coming back to a bouncy vote. Although I don't think we can go wrong with a lot of the wagons today, I must insist that bouncy be one of the more serious contenders for the lynch.

What's with everyone making a big deal over Pom + RF discussion? Unless you see one of them as trying to buddy up to the other, I don't see it as particularly suspicious.

[RedCoyote]

One more thing I wanted to add, since Fate brought it up.

Hoopla, I think I've found a real concern with following your plan. It kind of ties back into my earlier issue with choosing which "group" to lynch from. Let's say that neither Socrates nor Fate is scum (which, I think we can both admit, is not terribly improbable), then that's two likely town PRs that we are lynching.

If we move down to the next group, bouncy and Cobalt, then the chances grow that one of them is scum, but that could potentially be 3 town PRs lynched in a row. You take that with any stray bullets flying around during the night, we're talking a 6 or more townies dead going into the fourth day. In other words, an 11/5 split with the scum. This may be a bad case scenario (I can think of worse, but they obviously grow less and less likely), but I don't think you can say it's entirely improbable.

[RedCoyote]

Stranger, do a quick read though of bouncy in isolation if you have the time.

I'm willing to jump on the fifi wagon I think. Look, essentially we have to just come to a consensus. I think the best way to do this might be to find out who everyone would be comfortable lynching, as Faraday, Elli, and Fate have done.

Acceptable lynches:

bouncy
fifi
FFFF
Socrates
wolfram
Tony

Jack and Pom might be good lynches, but I'm just very undecided on Hoopla's plan and how it relates to scumminess. The factor being that supporting or not supporting the plan is scummy.

[RedCoyote]

Unvote; vote: FeFiFoFum

[RedCoyote]

If we

vote: bouncy.bouncy

, aren't we effectively killing off the 2 group? This might be an added reason to consider this vote.

Fate is on the money though. I think the scum used the deadline pressure to their advantage well, when the bouncy lynch could've been just as easy.

[RedCoyote]

Catchup post, but if you don't read anything else here, read the following sentence.

Can someone (Elli) please explain to me how bouncy is town without using the words, "this post feels/sounds..." or "my meta is..."?

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The logic of 'scum could've pushed the wagon just as easily as the one they did' is terribad.

Why? I mean, I understand what you're saying. You're saying that it's not impressive to say, "scum pushed FFFF", because it's so often the case that scum have some presence on every lynch, right? I get that. I think what Fate's saying that makes the idea bigger than that is how the wagon shifted. What did stop bouncy from getting lynched over FFFF yesterday, Ray?

In general, I have a love/hate relationship with this post. I don't think you're any scummier for making it, but on the same token, you're being extremely confusing with your wording here. Like Fate & farside, I had to read this over multiple times before I realized you knew that FFFF had been lynched and that we were on D2.

I'm saying

why FFFF being lynched over bouncy.bouncy is a null tell.

You're oversimplifying it. Hoopla's post 620 does a good job explaining why this is wrong.

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Vote bouncy

Please explain how this vote isn't purely a reaction.

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But I think closing down entire groups is a sensible idea, because it means scum can only hide if they're all in 2-3 groups.

When I stop and really consider the game, setup, and rules, this does seem like the more sensible approach to lynching. Obviously it needs to be supplemental, which was where I think my (and possibly others) hesistation came into play. There's a catch-22 in the plan where you have better odds at nabbing scum if you lynch from the top down, but if you do that you're shooting yourself in the foot PR-wise. While Hoopla says (This is a quick and dirty, one sentence summary of her position, mind you. In the bigger picture, this is a political nuance in mafia that could be argued back and forth very easily.) this is okay because PRs aren't always all they're cracked up to be, that's an extremely risky proposition.

I'm kind of throwing a lot of pronouns in this paragraph, but it's hard for me to explain exactly how I feel about the issue. If anyone is confused, I just mean to say that I like Hoopla's plan as long as it's considered another piece of scumhunting rather than a universal tool.

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First that push at the last minute on FFF looks completely scum motivated.
He was on V/LA which everyone ignored and pushed on a wagon based more on lurking then actual scum hunting
Second someone wanted a hammer on a player without asking for more from that player looks completely scummy. Elli pushed for it more and I'm curious why people were like lets forget pom and push on this wagon for no flipping reason what-so-ever.

Well, there was a reason. The deadline.

Let's be blunt though, someone needed to be lynched. You can't act as though FFFF wasn't a serious contender for the lynch throughout most of D1. I mean, I see your point, farside, and I would go as far as to say our reasoning (but not our ultimate conclusions) are in line with one another.

While I think the FFFF lynch was scum motivated because of the way bouncy's wagon was evacuated, you think that the FFFF lynch was scum motivated because of its speed. The reason I'm not going with your conclusion is because, V/LA or not, FFFF was talked about for some time. What about my conclusion? What do you think about bouncy today?

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True, but quantity differs from quality. And for someone to do reads, it takes someone to fish for reactions.

The 'ol "fish for reactions" line. I've heard this story before.

You're totally scum, aren't you fifi?

I was here when that happened my vote didn't change.

Oh look fifi follows more then a dog. Does he get treats too?

Yeah, and he can smell scum.

I think you misunderstood her, but I thought this was funny anyways. XD

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I believe it went from bouncy to FFFF, yes.

Explain the reasoning though.

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...I still can't get Socrates support, eh?

Well, neither of y'all have been particularly heavy posters today.

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Bouncy isn't the only lurker who has contributed nothing. And he doesn't have that scummy request for a claim either.

Regardless of whether you or I agree with this or not, bouncy has the momentum. Either that momentum has to be stopped by a competent defense (of bouncy) or an explosive case (against Pom).

It's also possible that the momentum could slow due to inactivity over time, but for some reason I don't think that will happen this game. I mean, I really think the case against bouncy is multifaceted and well explained. I do not sense it is being forced upon us or scum-driven in anyway. Whether you look at it through a scumtell perspective, through Hoopla's plan, through vote analysis, through lurker incrimination... bouncy just has way too much to account for. I don't always feel confident about lynches, but I feel very confident about this one.

[RedCoyote]

MS is moving especially slow for me tonight. Hopefully I will get a chance to catch up tomorrow.

[RedCoyote]

Like Fate said, give the scum credit. I would've never fingered a Hoopla/Socrates scumteam I don't think. I would've liked to had stuck around, because I think I was just getting into my stride at the end of Day 2.

Thanks to our Mod. I like the concept of the game. It's a simple premise, yet it goes a long way in changing up the way the game is played.