Teleportation Mafia Universe ONE (MAFIA A WINS!)

[evilsnail]

/confirm

[evilsnail]

Eh. From a strategic point of view, their plan makes sense. My only objection to it is that it kinda takes the fun and randomness out of the teleporter dynamic, though I guess only on odd nights.

[evilsnail]

Hmm, actually, the idea of using the teleporter as an extra lynch is kinda cool. We could potentially cast two different types of votes, one for the lynch and one for the teleport. In that way, it almost becomes a scumhunting competition between the universes, in that we want to teleport our scum out before they send us theirs.

In that system, if and when one town wins, which players have been teleported can potentially be highly informative.

[evilsnail]

I think Jack's point is quite interesting. While there's 3 of a mafia group alive, they'd probably kill in the universe where they had 2 members if they were split (unless they thought they'd be teleported out soon). If there were only two mafia alive, though, they might switch if they had better chances over there. So if we either teleported one and lynched one, or teleported two, we might not get a nightkill here, which would be a big win. That's if the other town don't send us any wee beasties, of course.

This is also a good point.

Well, I'm not sure if it counts as using their strategy against them (that implies a little more devilishness on our part), but playing the game competitively, where we try to pull their pro-town looking players and teleport our scummy ones, seems like a good idea to me.

[evilsnail]

Basically, I think it's better we just let the teleporters do what they want.

I agree. Letting the teleporter decide for themselves actually gives the mafia some motivation to eliminate the people who suspect them, unless they want to be transported...

Not sure I agree with this. A town-directed teleport is much more informative in terms of the interactions between players. Plus, the teleporter always retains the ability to use their own judgement.

In addition, there isn't necessarily that strong a drive for scum to eliminate those who suspect them (in any case not more so than in any other game). After all, there is only one teleporter and scum do have a 1-shot in case of emergencies.

[evilsnail]

evilsnail needs an avatar.

I have some pictures of Boxxy in different pictures do you want one?

We could fill this thread with maximum Boxxy.

Definitely not. I had to look up who Boxxy is and the brief exposure left scars on my brain that I do not care to revisit.

[evilsnail]

evilsnail needs an avatar.

I have some pictures of Boxxy in different pictures do you want one?

We could fill this thread with maximum Boxxy.

Definitely not. I had to look up who Boxxy is and the brief exposure left scars on my brain that I do not care to revisit.

[evilsnail]

Vote: fishythefish

Clearly scum.

[evilsnail]

mykonian, your reasoning doesn't take into account the fact that exchanging scum with Universe 2 creates the possibility of a mafia cross-kill. This means that there is a real advantage to teleporting, assuming that the exchanges roughly even out otherwise.

The only real question, I think, is whether we direct the teleport or leave it up to teleporter.

Also:

Unvote: fishythefish,
Vote: farside22

For casting the most fishy vote so far.

[evilsnail]

Yay, cross kills! How often do those happen during the start of the game, and is the chance that mafia shoots each other worth the confusion? Is it worth the risk they may shoot an extra towny in this universe, etc?

If they shoot an extra townie in one universe, they shoot no townie in the other universe. So, on average, this balances out. A cross-kill, however, is unambiguously good for town.

And what PR is being directed from the start of the game? May I remember you that scum could influence it too then, for their own use? The teleporter is 100% town, lets keep the teleportation 100% town too.

Well yeah, but the same is true of a lynch. I mean, probably leaving up to the teleporter is the way to go, since having to vote for it would be a hassle. But, in principle, it would buy us a lot of info.

[evilsnail]

I can get behind that plan.

[evilsnail]

@both universes(please quote): Teleporters should NOT claim now if we're going with this plan, and synchronized Night's actually ruin the plan. If the teleporters both claim now, then when one game goes to Night, that game's teleporter will be killed while grabbing the other one. It will be more beneficial to the town that lynches first, but will completely screw the second town to lynch out of their confirmed townie. Instead, the town that lynches second should wait until the first town goes to Night before claiming. Then they will be pulled over. Then, the second town should wait until the first town leaves Night . . . fuck. This plan doesn't actually work unless the two towns are on a different teleportation schedule. In that case, the first town to lynch should function on a P:T:T sequence, and the second should function on a T:P:T sequence, or a No action:P:T:T sequence (first is preferred). It should work out in the end. The only risk is that the second game ends before the second pull is used, but it's the only way to make this actually feasible.

[evilsnail]

@Anon: I'll just give you the hypotheical situation below.

Universe 1 goes into night ahead of us. This means that if U2's teleporter claims, the teleporter in U1 can teleport him into U1 at night, and scum won't be able to NK him (because preference is given to the universe which exits the day first). This way, U1 will enter D2 with a completely confirmed townie on their side, and will also dictate the scum kill N2 (unless they want to leave a confirmed alive).

Then, on D2 the actions are reversed - U2 will enter Night ahead of U1, so that U1's teleporter can claim and be teleported into U2. Now U2 has a completely confirmed townie as well, and thus the scum's NK is dictated for N3.

Since the mod has informed us that the pattern of teleports/pulls must be maintained throughout the game, neither side will get a confirm on D3, but the cycle will start again on D4 and D5.

@Nicodemus(love the name btw .. it's what I named my pet rat when I was a kid): Unfortunately, the cycle doesn't repeat until D5 and D6 (N4 and N5), but you're right with everything else.

As for the teleportations, I say we leave that up to whoever is the teleporter at the time. Personally, I think we should leave that up to the teleporter, so that we don't have to argue about it, but it seems the consensus is to send scummy people (which, of course, means we'll be getting Universe 1's scummy people, creating a loop of pointlessness, but I digress).

This seems like the way to go and it's pretty straightforward.

Now, let's hunt scum.

Unvote: farside 22,
Vote: Raskol

For not voting.

[evilsnail]

The fact that you chose me out of the four people that have posted since game start without voting is interesting---those being myself, mykonian, DGB, Ojanen.

Any particular reason for that?

Well, I felt like, in 109 (quoted below), you were sorta drumming up support for the Gayle wagon without committing to it. That can be a scum move. I mean, there were only like three votes on Gayle at the time, so there's no reason to withhold it.

There is really nothing I can say to defend myself from "Finding the strategy discussion irritating is scummy". I maintain that it is pointless to continue the strategy discussion.

You would prefer maybe random voting? Jokes about avatars?

Strategy discussion is necessary because what strategy we follow later, if any, will determine how likely it is that we'll reach our win conditions. For that reason, it's kinda important, you know?

In any case, you don't seem to be trying very hard to bring up something different to talk about.

@mykonian: I don't see how I'm hiding about kairyuu. I just think it's about time to pick a strategy and his latest one seemed to make sense.

Re my scum tells: It's been a long time since I played as scum, so I don't fully remember, but I definitely like busing my scumbuddies. That's fun. Other than that, I tend to be more cautious with my vote. When I'm town, I have very strong gut feelings about people and that's difficult to fake. So, if I'm using more intuition than sense, that's usually a sign that I'm town.

[evilsnail]

Btw, mykonian, what are

your

scum tells?

[evilsnail]

Wut?

Someone is asking what my scumtells are (along with everyone else's?)

No way. Why should I tell scum what they should avoid doing?

This post feels... off. As farside22 points out, sharing scum tells is not anti-town. Even if it did help scum in some way, it also helps the town find scum.

FOS: DGB

[evilsnail]

Day 1 Vote Count

ace5993 ( 0 )
DrippingGoofball ( 0 )
elvis_knits ( 0 )
evilsnail ( 0 )
farside22 ( 1 ) gayle
fishythefish ( 1 ) flareonage
flareonage ( 0 )
gayle ( 3 ) fishythefish farside22 popsofctown
infinis ( 0 )
mykonian ( 0 )
ojanen ( 0 )
plum ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 0 )
Raskol ( 2 ) evilsnail mykonian
Rhinox ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 8 ) ace5993 DrippingGoofball elvis_knits infinis ojanen plum Raskol Rhinox
Total Votes ( 15 )

With 15 alive, 8 needed to lynch.
Deadline: 2/8 11am

You'll find out my scumtells as I point them out. I point them out as they are being committed. I'm not laying down lists of scumtells. Ever.

That's not what you said in the first post, though. You implied that everyone sharing their scum tells would be bad for the town. Of course everyone is free to not list theirs, that's a different issue. But anyway.

Who do you suspect, DGB? Why are you not voting?

[evilsnail]

@other universe:

He has very few posts, are you claiming universe masons bud?

Erm.. do you really want to ask that question? Because that's not a pro-town road to go down.

I totally agree with DRK, btw, modulo the fact that I don't have a strong opinion on Flare either way.

[evilsnail]

I'm not sure how you managed to interpret that post as meaning I think Gayle is scum. Just because I disagree with someone about something doesn't mean I suspect them of being mafia. In the future, know that when I think someone is scummy, I'll say so clearly.

Well, you were putting the focus on her and you have to realise, regardless of whether you say you were suspicious of Gayle, you were fuelling the wagon with it.

Your professed opinion of Gayle doesn't matter so much. What was scummy is that you were fuelling the wagon without expressing it. That means that, at some later point, you can do exactly this: "oh, but I don't think Gayle is scum, I just

disagree with her logic

." Or, if the wagon picks up, you've established a possible precedent for joining it.

To clear things up, at this point I have no particular suspicion of gayle. In fact, being willing to take what could be seen as a lazy, anti-town stance is something I regard as a town-tell on the whole (it depends on how it's done ofc, but in this case I think gayle seems more town than not). Most newish scum aren't likely to do something that goes against the grain from what I've seen, especially early on in the game.

I essentially agree with this, though it's a weak town-tell at best. It's more of a null tell in this case, IMO.

[evilsnail]

<3 mykonian & farside

[evilsnail]

Why are you off balance?

Vote evilsnail

Fine, I'll bite. Why?

[evilsnail]

Still like my Raskol vote, though I don't think his Fish vote was

that

bad.

DGB is making no sense to me.
As farside points out, even using her own logic, her conclusions don't follow.

That said, I've always found her very hard to read. From what I remember from way back when, she's always kinda all over the place and she's definitely a gut-based player. So I'm not convinced yet that there is a very strong case there.

[evilsnail]

Day 1 Vote Count

ace5993 ( 0 )
DrippingGoofball ( 3 ) mykonian plum popsofctown
elvis_knits ( 0 )
evilsnail ( 2 ) DrippingGoofball Albert B. Rampage
farside22 ( 1 ) gayle
fishythefish ( 1 ) Raskol
flareonage ( 0 )
gayle ( 1 ) fishythefish
Albert B. Rampage ( 0 )
mykonian ( 0 )
ojanen ( 0 )
plum ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 1 ) flareonage
Raskol ( 4 ) evilsnail farside22 ojanen elvis_knits
Rhinox ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 2 ) ace5993 Rhinox
Total Votes ( 15 )

With 15 alive, 8 needed to lynch.
Deadline: 2/8 11am

It's not in MD/GD. It's in the sign-up thread to this game.

[evilsnail]

@evilsnail: how do you go about attempting to read DGB?

Well, DGB as I remember her is a gut player, especially on day 1, which I find hard to read. But there are a few things I do look for. Gut is erratic, so you look for rapid changes of heart. Going after one player really hard for some time and then suddenly backing off on the basis of one townie-looking comment. That sort of thing. Paradoxically, relying heavily on logic can also be a scum tell (because it indicates an absence of gut feelings). Finally, if my gut reads are the same, that's usually a sense of pro-townness.

In this game, I feel her logic about the scum tell question could be a tell of the second type, but that's about all I have on her so far.

[evilsnail]

I'm not seeing the elvis_knits case. The only thing that resembles a tell is the "claiming town" thing, but, as Plum pointed out, this is far from reliable. In addition, given what elvis was discussing at the time, it's perfectly natural to mention.

This post feels... off. As farside22 points out, sharing scum tells is not anti-town. Even if it did help scum in some way, it also helps the town find scum.

FOS: DGB

How so? I don't think it does.

To start off, more info and more interaction always helps town. Unless the question is about your favourite type of fruit (pears), you're going to get something out of it. More importantly, a town player has every reason to answer the question (helps avoid mislynches), while scum has every reason not to. Evasiveness or deliberate vagueness can therefore be a tell.

Look, even if we suppose that scum are going to be able to come up with a coherent list of scum tells and then consistently behave in the exact opposite way throughout the game, you have 1) a point of reference and 2) you've put scum at a disadvantage, because you've forced them into a particular playing style, making them more likely to slip up in other areas.

The more I think about this, the more ridiculous it seems to me that anyone can think that answering this question hurts the town and the more I'm starting to become suspicious of the motives of those who have treated it as a serious tell.

[evilsnail]

Tell me, how does knowing what everyone says is their scumtell going to help you find scum in this game?

Dude, I answered this question in detail on the last page.

[evilsnail]

Fair enough, but you can at least pretend to have read my answer.

[evilsnail]

@Rhinox: Fair enough. Sorry about the snark.

@DGB: I don't see what you mean. Who's busing who?

[evilsnail]

DGB has been doing the same thing. How come when elvis does it it is suddenly scummy? Also, I totally agree with elvis's WTF. Since when are readlists a bad idea? The benefit to scum is minimal. The benefit to town, a record of everyone's behaviour and claimed thoughts, far outweighs that.

[evilsnail]

I agree. It's totally a good idea to do that.

[evilsnail]

elvis is so obviously town.

[evilsnail]

Maybe if xyz are morons.

I'm sorry, but the scenario you're describing is spectacularly unlikely. ABCD are all picking up on some reliable town read that xyz for some reason have no awareness of? This tell, so elusive for scum, is somehow still so reliable that ABCD will not ever doubt it and change their minds. In addition, xyz somehow decide to all go after the same player together, without any plausible suspect action by F and build their case so poorly that ABCD are entirely unconvinced and stick to their town read. In addition, ABCD all recognise that not having this mysterious, magical town read on F means that xyz are scum.

More likely is x goes after F, y waffles on the issue and z disagrees. A changes his mind and goes after F too, B doesn't see what the big deal is and FOSes y for waffling, C is lurking, D is too caught up in his case on A to care and F OMGUSes x after a long drawn-out discussion with x over the minutiae of the discussion after which everyone else, including y and z, is too confused to be able to tell either way. At the end of the day, the only impression anyone is left with is that F did something scummy and this, coupled with F's unimpressive claim, ensures a sloppy mislynch of F when the deadline rolls around.

[evilsnail]

Sorry, had limited access for a few days. Will try to catch up soonish.

[evilsnail]

ABR and DGB seem to be engaged in some sort of personal battle here, which doesn't make it easier to judge their alignment.

That said, I'm starting to see the case on DGB much more than the case on ABR. I haven't really seen anything in ABR's play to worry me unduly. He wasn't contributing much early on, but there are plenty of people who play like that even as town. For DGB, I think the way she has pushed the scum tell issue is at least a tell. She's been inconsistent about it and the logic of it doesn't add up.

I still agree with my original assessment of elvis_knits. Her frustration seems quite genuine and I don't think the case on her was ever really solid. I think someone asked at some point why I think I her town. Well, she spotted the same Raskol tell I did and I've pretty much found myself agreeing with her reasoning throughout the thread (which is usually a good sign).

Here is my little scumlist atm:

DGB - I haven't really found myself agreeing with her much. Either she's scum or our gut feelings are totally different. In addition, the way she continues to read way too much into the scum tell question. This (and her inconsistency in it) is definitely a point against her.
Raskol - Still think he's scummy, but I thought the way he backed off elvis_knits was more likely to be a townie move.
Fishythefish - I don't know, getting a bad gut feeling from his posts. He was very wishy-washy about a supposed slip by myko at some point and his initial Gayle vote was a bit off. Mostly this is gut, though.

[evilsnail]

There are clearly two explanations for myk's slip - it was a scumslip or an alignment neutral slip. To entertain them both as possibilities isn't "wishy-washy". I stated my conclusion - that I view it as a decent point against myk - and I don't really see how I could have been more concrete.

Logically then the conclusion should that it was a null tell. Instead, you appeared to entertain both options, as if giving yourself the option of drawing both conclusions (e.g. by at a later date going "on closer inspection, it seems more likely to be a scum slip").

What do you find off about my Gayle vote? I've got something to say on this when you've answered.

You seemed to vote her for wanting to cut off strategy discussion. Sure, this is hardly a pro-town strategy, but not one that is significantly more likely to be pushed by scum, IMO. So, this vote could have been scum trying to create suspicion where there needn't be any. As I said, though, most of this is a gut feeling.

[evilsnail]

No, that makes no sense. Nothing tells you both explanations are just as likely. If you analyse the situation, using both explanations, and you look at the likelyhood of these explanations, then you can truly say how effective an argument based on this situation is.

Obviously it is linked to likelihood. I realise that. That's just a matter of logic. But there was no assessment of likelihood in his post. That leaves his conclusions open to manipulation. It doesn't matter how informative his post was. That very focus on information and listing arguments for both points of view without a clear assessment of the consequences is what makes it scummy.

[evilsnail]

ABR wanting to lynch DGB with the claim is pretty scummy. If the claim is false, it will come out anyway. There's no pro-town reason that doesn't involve being the mason to push for a DGB lynch.

FOS: ABR

Well, it seems that ABR is going to get lynched.

Unvote; Vote: ABR

This is awful.

Unvote, Vote: CSL

[evilsnail]

The votecount is L-3 because I unvoted to make sure that ABR doesn't self-vote, with some help from his buddy.

Evilsnail FOS'ing ABR, the vote leader, while acknowledging all the reasons we find him scummy, then voting CSL, who is way less awful than ABR and a wong that's not happening today, and may be our teleporter (unfortunately), is beyond the pale and cannot possibly come from a townie.

Wrong. I don't really think the case against ABR is that strong otherwise. In addition, his desire to lynch you regardless of the claim could have some basis in the personal vendetta he seems to have against you. I'm not going to vote ABR without a stronger case. Make of that what you will.

[evilsnail]

Also, your supposed "teleporter tell" makes no sense. Why would a teleport not mind being NKed but beseech the town not to be lynched? This is the one thing guaranteed not to happen, since the teleporter is basically confirmed innocent once claimed.

That's a really weak basis for dismissing the CSL case.

[evilsnail]

[...] I'm starting to see the case on DGB much more than the case on ABR.

I haven't really seen anything in ABR's play to worry me unduly. He wasn't contributing much early on, but there are plenty of people who play like that even as town.

^^^^ Time to draw your own conclusions, everyone!

What's your point? That I'm consistent?

Here is my little scumlist atm:

DGB

- I haven't really found myself agreeing with her much. Either she's scum or our gut feelings are totally different. In addition, the way she continues to read way too much into the scum tell question. This (and her inconsistency in it) is definitely a point against her.

Raskol

- Still think he's scummy, but I thought the way he backed off elvis_knits was more likely to be a townie move.

Fishythefish

- I don't know, getting a bad gut feeling from his posts. He was very wishy-washy about a supposed slip by myko at some point and his initial Gayle vote was a bit off. Mostly this is gut, though.

QUIZ:

Which player is missing from evilsnail's scumlist, given that he's just voted him (basically for voting ABR) and should be there? There's a cookie!

I hadn't made up my mind about CSL at that point. He hadn't posted a lot yet. I'm not voting for anyone on that list (although Raskol and fishythefish are still my main suspects), because I don't think it's constructive considering the upcoming deadline. That's why I changed my vote.

But whatever. I doubt this is going to affect your opinion of my play. I can't seem to post anything without you thinking it's scummy.

[evilsnail]

Ignoring my replies and reverting to some disrespectful, flippant remark? Classy.

[evilsnail]

I need to get caught up on this game. Will try to post something substantial tonight. Have a project I need to finish and hand in first.

[evilsnail]

Just went through CSL in iso, and it requires quite a stretch to get to the idea that he softclaimed teleporter. He mentioned getting NK'ed, but only in the context of saying that he would be happy just living through Day 1 (ie, not getting lynched for once).

So...the "why is he still alive?" line of thought isn't terribly convincing to me.

On the CSL issue, I agree with this and I think I said something similar Day 1. Him not being NKed is a null tell, IMO, especially when there are other reasons to be suspicious of CSL.

a point against Evilsnail is that he is quite active in a mini (at least, I see his name there quite often as last post), while there is little action here.

FoS Evilsnail.

Eh, some games require little thought, while others have 43 pages to sift through.

@myko: what else would scum-elli do except scumhunt? Pretty much his only chances of winning are either getting back to U2 or reducing U1 scum. I'd say the latter is well worth his while. I do agree that supposing he's going to be a serious protown force here is optimistic.

Fishythefish is pretty much right here.

Raskol, what are you voting me for again? Voteparking? Isn't that basically what you're doing now?

[evilsnail]

Not voting on the beginning of Day 1 is only a scum tell because it's the RVS.

The only reason I'm not as involved as I should be is because the thread is huge and I'm having trouble getting my head around it. This coupled with the fact that I've been quite busy of late.

I have a fairly clear sense of who's town. I have good feelings about elvis, farside, Ojanen and pops. Scum: you, CSL, fishythefish. But, to be honest, my cases are fairly weak.

You I mainly have a bad feeling about still because your vote feels a bit OMGUSy and your pattern of involvement isn't much better than mine. Sure, I posted some theory-related fluff, but most of that was early on. And your vote on me keeps your hands as clean as mine.

[evilsnail]

evilsnail I really don’t like. Reading him in iso, there’s a huge amount of stuff which falls into the categories of null reads, discrediting other points, calling people town, strategy discussion of the kind that reads protown but doesn’t really say anthing, weakening his own points with equivocal reads, and other assorted things which don’t commit him in any way to any serious reads. He’s leaving himself in a position to vote CSL, myko and myself – perhaps the three easiest lynches in the game right now. His play feels like trying to stay under the radar and be in a position to get a town lynch. I really think he is scum.

vote:evilsnail

I've had some trouble keeping up with the game, fine. As you yourself have just said, posting theory is easy, scumhunting is hard. Why can't the same be true for me? That's totally hypocritical. You can at least give me the chance to be more active today.

How do I leave myself in a position to vote you and myko? Myko I haven't attacked at all. You I have a gut feeling about, which goes back to Day 1, before there was any real pressure on you. So that statement is basically a lie.

In addition, if there's anyone who's leaving himself in a position to jump on the available wagons, it's you. You just fingered me, pops and CSL in the same post. Everything you accuse me of you do yourself in the same post.

Vote: fishythefish

[evilsnail]

You've made exactly one vote all game, and only a pretty low percentage of your posts actually contain anything that serves to encourage or discourage a lynch of anyone. You've taken few stances and made few connections, either pro or con, with almost anyone. This is a kind of play that makes it very hard to pin anything on you, if you're scum, and if you're town, hurts your effectiveness. Assuming you're relatively competent means I'm inclined to think you're more likely to be scum overall.

Well, I think I actually have more posts than you and you're also exaggerating a little. I have taken a stance on elvis, DGB, ABR, CSL and various wagons. Sure, I should have posted more, but me having trouble keeping up with the game Day 1 is hardly a good reason to vote me. You're conveniently ignoring the fact that I've said a number of times that I was pretty busy in RL.

[evilsnail]

Day 2 Vote Count

CSL ( 2 ) elvis_knits Rhinox
elvis_knits ( 1 ) mykonian
evilsnail ( 3 ) Raskol fishythefish Ellibereth
farside22 ( 0 )
fishythefish ( 1 ) evilsnail
Hoopla ( 1 ) farside22
gayle ( 0 )
mykonian ( 0 )
ojanen ( 0 )
Ellibereth ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 1 ) gayle
Raskol ( 0 )
Rhinox ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 4 ) ojanen popsofctown CSL Hoopla
Total Votes ( 13 )

With 13 alive, 7 needed to lynch.
Deadline: Feb 22nd 19:00 EST

1. You don't really address the main reasons I find you scummy there. I feel your play actively avoids taking stances on who is scum. I don't feel you don't have the time/energy/ability to scumhunt - I feel like you aren't trying.

Well, you can "feel" that all you want, it's not true. I should know. I haven't actively avoided taking a stance. As I've noted, I've not withheld my opinion on the major wagons, like DGB, ABR and CSL.

2. This is the point - you haven't given a good reason for any of your three suspicions, and are in a position to jump on any of their wagons, saying that you think them scummiest. Until you just voted me, I had no idea who you found scummiest.

Well, neither did I really. I came out thinking my Raskol vote was still a good one, so I asked him a question to see if that read holds up. Then you posted this terrible vote, so I voted you.

4. Hypocrisy isn't a scumtell.

It is. It means your case is insincere.

[evilsnail]

The part about those being the easiest lynches was factually wrong, though. CSL is an easy target, but snail's suspicions on me mostly predate everyone else's, and I was wrong in thinking he was voicing suspicions of myko. This doesn't do much to weaken my overall point - reading snail's iso, he's always left himself in a position to change BWs easily, including around all major BWs. Part of this is that he's voiced no suspicions with reasons, while producing lots of posts that read like content.

Geez, you're really taking this and running with it, aren't you? Granted, I joined the CSL wagon, but it's not true of other wagons. For DGB, I FOSed her the moment she said sharing scum tells was a scum tell, before there was any real suspicion on her. I then said that I considered this a mild scum tell, but that I have trouble reading her. This opinion went unchanged throughout the day. This is merely consistency. For ABR, it is also clearly not true. I also resisted the elvis vote, though this never really picked up. In fact, I've only jumped on a wagon once.

Btw, I haven't even made "lots of posts." And please show me some that read like content, but aren't. Because, at the moment, you're basically waffling.

[evilsnail]

Evilsnail, you are an experienced player.

Since when is consistency town?

Where do I say that? It just shows that my opinion of DGB predated the wagon.

[evilsnail]

I don't get your point. I only pointed out that my opinion of DGB predated the wagon. I didn't say consistency was a town tell or anything. Both town and scum players can be consistent.

I was addressing the interpretation fishythefish seems to be pushing (that I expressed suspicion of DGB in order to be able to jump onto her wagon), which is invalidated by this.

[evilsnail]

I don't mind pops's justification for his CSL vote so much, even though I'm not a huge fan of policy lynches. The observation that there was no "obvscum" struck me as strange, though. There's plenty of people making cases. Heck, there's a bandwagon on me that people seem to like. By making these wagons out to be non-existent or weak, he's basically making the reasoning behind his vote out to be weaker than it is.

[evilsnail]

Well, to be honest, that post was more accurate for my old playing style. Some time has passed since I last played and I'm finding out that my new style is different. I haven't been going off gut reads as much in any of my games. I used to be more aggressive in following up on them, but now that seems kind of unhelpful. As for the caution, that has more to do with losing track of the game than anything else.

[evilsnail]

Well, to be honest, that post was more accurate for my old playing style. Some time has passed since I last played and I'm finding out that my new style is different. I haven't been going off gut reads as much in any of my games. I used to be more aggressive in following up on them, but now that seems kind of unhelpful. As for the caution, that has more to do with losing track of the game than anything else.

So you lied about what you do as scum when you first answered or you answered it thinking of past games and nothing that is current?

No.. that post was like three days after I re-joined. I only had my old playing style to go on.

[evilsnail]

When I said "easy targets", I was talking about suspicions voiced by people. Rightly or wrongly, lots of people have been suspicious of you. Yeah, the more I read about what I said the more fail it is. I was under the impression that multiple people had recently given slight suspicions against me - actually, it was only 2 (Oj and farside). I am indeed way sensitive to little pressure.

I guess I can understand that. I tend to overreact when voted myself (as I'm sure you can tell).

The stance that you have a mild scum tell but have trouble reading someone is the perfect stance for scum wondering whether to hop on a wagon. The fact that you were consistent in this stance doesn't change that. For ABR, you fossed him over DGB's claim, and then in your next post said the case wasn't otherwise that strong. Yes, you commented on the case, and I'm not saying those comments are unbelievable. But after them, you were in a good position to go either way on ABR. I wasn't making points about you jumping on wagons. I was making points about you loitering around wagons, looking like you could jump on or sidle away at any moment.

I guess, though I did immediately clarify my stance on ABR. There was only really a small window in which jumping on the wagon would have been believable.

Sure, you can accuse me of wagon-loitering, or whatever you want to call it, but the ultimate purpose of that is to jump on wagons. The fact that I've barely done that at all should tell you that there is no such strategy behind my posts. It's the actual wagonning that is supposed to make the behaviour scummy, not the behaviour in itself.

For your last sentence - my case on you is very much based on your overall play. I think that on first glance, you don't give the impression of a lurker, but if you look harder at your posts there isn't generally much there. There's no point me quoting examples of places you didn't scumhunt - I don't find your individual posts particularly scummy - I suggest people read your iso to see if they agree with me (and I suggest you read it to see whether you think my suspicions are plausible).

Well, I see how you can get the impression from my overall play. As I've said, I'm not particularly proud of my activity level so far and this is something I'm trying to remedy. But my point is that if you look at the posts themselves, I don't think you see someone trying to fake content. The impression my play might give overall is definitely not what I intended anyway.

[evilsnail]

I said there wasn't obvscum because most of the many various cases that have been presented are crap.

Scum with Evil ^^^

You know, I really dislike these kinds of posts. It's an easy way of stifling any opposition to your case. If pops responds, you can just treat it as more proof of your theory!

The beauty of it is that it is total speculation, based on an assumption for which you have no real proof. And you can't be called on this, because no one else does either. And when the person you're wagonning turns up town, you can just act as if you never said it. Who's going to remember it tomorrow anyway?

[evilsnail]

Too bad Fishy and Evilsnail didn't use all that time they spent arguing to hunt far more obvious scum: "Lurk and Lie" CSL,"Wagon Hop" Pops, and "Respond to everything with a flurry of misleading arguments" Myko.

The people voting evilsnail for Elli's point are being ridiculous. Why do you guys keep going for this "scumslip" nonsense? Elli made a similar point about Jack, and look what happened. Please don't lynch over such a stupid reason.

I like this post, and not just because of the point about me. Scum-Gayle has no real reason to tie herself to three wagons that clearly. It could really come back to haunt her.

Pops's response to Ojanen seems off. Considering that pops is pursuing a policy lynch on CSL and not making a case on anyone himself, dismissing all available cases out of hand is really unproductive. Also, I think Ojanen made some fair points about Rhinox's play. I read over pops's ISO and she hasn't contributed real cases in a long time (which I realise now some players have been pointing out for a while). I don't know how this measures up to pops's meta, but it is certainly not helping us.

[evilsnail]

omg ur right. lynching my strongest town read makes WAY more sense than a policy lynch.

vote: Rhinox

. except no,

unvote

.

Stringing up people as fast as humanly possible is the scum's idea of productive. Which is the root of why several people are suspicious of you.

Your response has nothing to do with what I said. I never said you should vote Rhinox. Just that it seems weird that you've been dismissing all of these cases without giving us anything better. I would understand if you felt you had a stronger case, but you don't.

That has nothing to do with stringing up people as fast as possible either. And I don't see how this is at the "root of why several people are suspicious of me." I'm being wagonned for a lack of activity/content, which is precisely the opposite.

If this is you readying yourself to vote me, please try harder next time.

[evilsnail]

Day 2 Vote Count

CSL ( 1 ) Rhinox
elvis_knits ( 0 )
evilsnail ( 2 ) Ellibereth farside22
farside22 ( 1 ) popsofctown
fishythefish ( 1 ) evilsnail
Hoopla ( 0 )
gayle ( 0 )
mykonian ( 0 )
ojanen ( 0 )
Ellibereth ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 4 ) gayle Hoopla elvis_knits fishythefish
Raskol ( 1 ) mykonian
Rhinox ( 1 ) ojanen
Not Voting ( 2 ) CSL Raskol
Total Votes ( 13 )

With 13 alive, 7 needed to lynch.
Deadline: Feb 22nd 19:00 EST

I realise. I like your 1195, even though I don't think the case is particularly convincing.

[evilsnail]

Awesome.

[evilsnail]

Well, I can see why you were teleported over here. You always this wagon-happy?

[evilsnail]

What's wrong with that?

Nothing necessarily, but it's an easy scum strategy, which is why I asked.

@Ellibereth: Fishythefish, and I still like that vote.

[evilsnail]

Maybe you should take something from that, CSL.

[evilsnail]

More players means we can afford more mislynches before losing. Which is possibly a reason why we shouldn't be too worried about U2 getting ahead of us.

[evilsnail]

I can get behind a pops lynch today, especially if CSL gets teleported to U2.

[evilsnail]

Evilsnail

, why are you on Fishy?

I've had a gut feeling about him since about halfway through Day 1, from his discussion of a slip you made. And the way he jumped on my wagon earlier today was unconvincing to me. He's a very reasonable player, so he doesn't trip up that clearly.

I still like a pops lynch today. Won't vote yet, because I think he's at L-1, but I will hammer if nothing changes.

[evilsnail]

If you've anything to claim, this is probably a good time to do it. You're at L-1 and the deadline is close.

[evilsnail]

If we get to deadline, somebody better be willing to hammer him, with or without a claim.

I'll take care of this. I like a pops lynch today and I'll be on before the deadline tomorrow.

[evilsnail]

Unvote, Vote: CSL

[evilsnail]

Unvote, Vote: pops

Awesome.

[evilsnail]

Good catch, fishy. Maybe I was wrong about you.

[evilsnail]

Rhinox is probably town, on the basis of pops's behaviour.

[evilsnail]

The links between pops and Raskol/Rhinox/Hoopla/me in 1472 and 1474. Of these, I think the Raskol link is the most convincing, and even then isn't that exciting.

I think Evil is the most convincing. I'm basing it on pops play in the game. She followed me most of day 1 but once evil was brought up she tried to sling mud at me.

Eh, I can't say I fault you for this point of view. I haven't really been active enough to interact with pops much and my role on the wagon was a bit non-committal. I wasn't completely sold on the pops wagon, but, at the same time, I thought pops was scummy enough to be a good lynch. I was kinda looking forward to hammering, actually, because I rarely hammer as town, but then the teleporter claim brought my doubts back.

Vote: Hoopla

, btw.

[evilsnail]

I don't like how you all are acting like Hoopla is confirmed scum. Especially evilsnail, who just tacks a vote for Hoopla onto the bottom of an otherwise unrelated post.

Like my vote is really that different from, say, fishy's? I don't see myself voting anyone but Hoopla at this point. I don't think there are many good Mafia A candidates left. I can buy Raskol and Hoopla as pops's scumbuddies, but outside of that only really maybe myko or fishy. I am getting a pretty solid pro-town vibe from most of the other players. Combine that with the scumslip and Hoopla's got to go.

[evilsnail]

Hoopla, your case on me is based mainly on pops's behaviour, so I don't really know how to answer it. As for my vote on you, I stand by my 1487.

[evilsnail]

evil: I don't see you giving a reason for you vote on Hoopla. You have been very under the radar not saying much about anything and doing mostly parroting.

That's a bit unfair. It's pretty clear I'm voting Hoopla for the slip fishy caught. Okay, so I've followed others in that vote, but, other than that, I think the accusation of "parroting" is pretty inaccurate.

[evilsnail]

Day 3 Vote Count

CSL ( 0 )
elvis_knits ( 0 )
evilsnail ( 1 ) Hoopla
farside22 ( 0 )
fishythefish ( 0 )
Hoopla ( 3 ) farside22 CSL evilsnail
gayle ( 0 )
mykonian ( 0 )
ojanen ( 0 )
Ellibereth ( 0 )
Raskol ( 0 )
Rhinox ( 0 )
Maelyn ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 8 ) Raskol Maelyn Rhinox gayle mykonian ojanen Ellibereth fishythefish
Total Votes ( 12 )

With 12 alive, 7 needed to lynch.
Deadline: March 10th 10:30 EST

/ghostslay

[evilsnail]

Anyway, I'm starting to feel like there could be a noose in my near future. I don't think I've contributed enough in this game, so I want to make sure I at least made some sort of contribution to the town's efforts. First, I'm going to do a global analysis of pops's voting behaviour and the various wagons on pops.

The data are mostly drawn from votecounts.

wagons pops was on

DGB

- (4) - myko

ABR

pops

fishy Plum Rhinox
This was the wagon on DGB. Now, what is interesting about this wagon is that it was at four votes for a long time, with myko, ABR, pops and fishy voting. On the basis of this, I think we can rule out a myko-pops-fishy scum group. I can see one scum joining pops on the DGB wagon, but not two.

ABR

(8) gayle (

DGB

)

elvis

farside

pops

CSL fishy Plum myko
This is the ABR wagon, although DGB wasn't on the lynch eventually. I'm going to return to this wagon and how it is (possibly) significant in the next post.

CSL (2) Rhinox

pops

One of a number of little CSL wagons. Doubt two scum would be pursuing a policy lynch together. Rhinox is probably town.

farside (1)

pops

A farside vote that pops pursued. Especially considering farside's position on the various pops wagons, I think farside is likely town.

CSL (3) (Rhinox) (Hoopla)

pops

More on the CSL wagon. The same consideration that applied to Rhinox on the first one should perhaps apply to Hoopla. Hmm...

CSL (5)

pops

fishy evilsnail Hoopla Elli
This is the CSL wagon at the end of Day 2 that developed after pops's claim and died at elvis's counterclaim. It wasn't in any of the votecounts I looked at, but I figured I'd add it since it's been the focus of discussion. I still think the CSL vote wasn't as bad as some people have made it out to be, but I do acknowledge that a scum player would likely have joined it at that point. If we assume this, then it's likely one of fishy and Hoopla (and me, I guess) is scum.

[evilsnail]

have you really established a case on anyone in this game? The only time I really saw you was when fishy attacked you based on your own scum meta comments.

Well, not as much as I should have, but I did try to build cases on Raskol and CSL.

[evilsnail]

Okay, now I'm going to turn to the wagons on pops.

wagons on pops

pops

- (2) - gayle farside
This was a Day 1 wagon on pops, before pops became a real lynch candidate, and, therefore, it is potentially quite informative. Gayle and farside definitely get townie points.

pops

- (1) - Hoopla
This was a brief wagon when Hoopla replaced in Day 1. It was very brief, so I don't know if it is informative. It looks a little like distancing, because it doesn't seem a serious vote.

pops

- (7) - gayle (Hoopla)

elvis

fishy Elli farside CSL Hoopla
Gayle's position on this wagon I don't think is a scum one. I think it's highly likely that a wagon this big attracted a scumbuddy, though. Personally, I think the fishy and the Hoopla vote were the most off. Hoopla only voted pops after being reminded that she was saying she preferred a pops vote and fishy jumped off a wagon on me with little real reasoning.

pops

- (9) - gayle

elvis

CSL farside fishy evilsnail ojanen Hoopla Elli
The lynch. I'm not sure this is very informative, since it was incredibly obvious pops was scum at this point.

Conclusions

Just on the basis of their voting with regards to pops:

- likely town: gayle, farside, CSL, Rhinox
- poss scumbuddies: fishy, Hoopla

Armed with these conclusions, I think it is interesting to return to the ABR lynch. I've added green highlighting for likely townies.

ABR

- (8) -

gayle

(

DGB

)

elvis

farside

pops

CSL

fishy Plum myko
Now what's interesting is this wagon has a lot of confirmed/likely townies on it. I think it's likely that there are some scum on the tail end of this wagon, taking advantage of the case on ABR built by townies. A big townie-driven wagon is an incredibly juicy target for scum. As such, I think it's likely there's scum in the last three votes, fishy, Plum and myko.

I'm going to leave it there for tonight. I want to draw this all together with some fine-grained analysis of individual players tomorrow.

[evilsnail]

Evil: Why does hoopla's vote on pops look like scum bussing where me and gayle are given town points?

A number of reasons:
- better and earlier position on the wagon
- you were both on the small Day 1 wagon on pops
- the way Hoopla voted pops

Hoopla, so you seem to prefer a pops lynch to a CSL one? Why does your vote not reflect that?

More later.

You're right, thanks Ojanen!

Unvote, vote: pops

[evilsnail]

I really dislike snail's 1134. Because, up until then, I was pretty sure I'd struck scum. But that post really makes me doubt my read, both because I really believe it on a gut level, and it makes so little sense for scumsnail. At that point, snail was being voted by four people. Three of them had the same point against him, and then there was me. I'd made a case which had attracted no support, and a fair amount of criticism. Why on earth would scumsnail roll over and basically say that I had a case? Going after my case is such a natural play there.

unvote

. I don't believe that post came from scum.

vote: pops

- since he's scum and all.

This was your pops vote. The reason I felt this was a good bussing candidate is because you established the logic of your vote in a post in which you voted me, but then seemed to wait until the pops lynch became relatively inevitable until you actually voted pops.

[evilsnail]

It was the fourth vote on the wagon, at which point I think it would have been clear to a scumbuddy that pops was becoming a liability. However, I did do a re-read and you kinda did de-rail the wagon on me, which was bigger at the time, with your switch. So, that does speak in your favour.

[evilsnail]

Well, I was kinda expecting this. My posts around the pops wagon don't look great and there was already a little wagon on me Day 2.

Evilsnail, you are an experienced player.

Since when is consistency town?

Where do I say that? It just shows that my opinion of DGB predated the wagon.

And Evil, you name it with your suspicion on DGB. As town, you wouldn't have to worry about consistancy, but as scum you really want to show you aren't blatantly bandwagonning...

After he is accused by DGB he says it only shows he was consistent. I think only scum is really caring about being consistent, so I asked about it.

I don't get your point.

I only pointed out that my opinion of DGB predated the wagon. I didn't say consistency was a town tell or anything. Both town and scum players can be consistent.

I was addressing the interpretation fishythefish seems to be pushing (that I expressed suspicion of DGB in order to be able to jump onto her wagon), which is invalidated by this.

This strikes me as odd now. I don´t like how Evil misses the point here.

unvote vote Evilsnail

Small tell, but I really see scum motivations here.

I still don't get what you mean here. I make an offhand reference to consistency, to show that what fishy (?) interpreted as readying to jump on a wagon came from an earlier suspicion. What's the scum tell?

I don't mind pops's justification for his CSL vote so much, even though I'm not a huge fan of policy lynches.

The observation that there was no "obvscum" struck me as strange, though. There's plenty of people making cases. Heck, there's a bandwagon on me that people seem to like. By making these wagons out to be non-existent or weak, he's basically making the reasoning behind his vote out to be weaker than it is.

I should take a break, I'm starting to tunnel.

What I meant here is that I don't go for policy lynches myself, but I don't think pursuing them is necessarily scummy.

Pops's response to Ojanen seems off. Considering that pops is pursuing a policy lynch on CSL and not making a case on anyone himself, dismissing all available cases out of hand is really unproductive. Also, I think Ojanen made some fair points about Rhinox's play. I read over pops's ISO and she hasn't contributed real cases in a long time (which I realise now some players have been pointing out for a while). I don't know how this measures up to pops's meta, but it is certainly not helping us.

Why didn't you vote for pops here, evil?

To be completely honest with you, I didn't want to seem scummy. At the time, I was being accused of being opportunistic around the major wagons and I was worried it would just attract more attention. I hate getting lynched as town.

Unvote, Vote: CSL

This is after the claim, fishy just came with decent analysis, and Evil bandwagonned.

I thought CSL was a good compromise lynch and that pops could just be teleported to the other universe if he were lying. I wasn't bandwagonning, though. I was just returning to earlier suspicions. I've been pretty explicit about my suspicions of CSL at the end of Day 1 and the start of Day 2. At the time, my scum candidates were pops, fishy and CSL. Fishy didn't seem like a viable lynch at deadline, so I went for CSL.

Evil's "awesome" could very well have been honest. But it certainly was only there to score townie points.

It was just my first response. I thought elvis's claim was really cool, with how she put all the important bits in HUGE letters.

Evil sounded annoyed towards Pops, but I think in the end, it was buddying. Esspecially seen that those "OMGUS" feelings didn't really come back later.

This isn't true. That whole exchange with pops made me feel much better about a pops lynch. I said a couple times later that I was willing to hammer him. I would have been the one to hammer him if he'd claimed townie instead of teleporter.

[evilsnail]

Evil, I consider it a tell when somebody uses "consistency" as a good thing, about himself. It is the same as saying "See how town I am", except it isn't true here (being consistent =/= being town), because it is almost the opposite. (trying to be consistent = scum, quite often)

Well, I get the logic of this, but, at the time, I was being accused of inconsistency, of only having suspicions of people when they were being wagonned. It's only from that perspective that consistency mattered. It feels like you consider just the use of the word a scum tell, which is a bit strange.

[evilsnail]

ok. That was not quite as expected, but there is nothing that doesn't say it wasn't an accident, so on this moment haylen is lucky. We also know that Elli, Starbuck and Haylen are not in 1 scumteam (the game would have ended in universe 2).

Not true. There's a reasonable chance there's scum in some of the players who've gone over, in which case the game wouldn't end in U2. This is a revealing comment if you're scum.

I'm kinda surprised by the Rhinox teleport. I would have expected scum to use their one-shot during the night and not during the day, for one thing. I can see a few motivations for the teleport (assuming it was U1 scum that did it, U2 doesn't make that much sense). If Rhinox is town, it suggests we still have our two mafia A scum and they're narrowing down the townie pull. If Rhinox is scum, it suggests that maybe all U1 scum have gone over to U2. Or maybe they felt that splitting the team would be good odds-wise. But then I don't see why they'd do it so late.

[evilsnail]

Wait, never mind. Totally didn't see U2 entered Night. I thought the Rhinox teleport was our first non-nightly teleport.

[evilsnail]

@Evil: I want gut. 3 suspects. 1 line on why.

Fishy: his pops vote looked like a bus, regardless of the fact that it steered attention away from my wagon. And he was late to the ABR wagon, which seems to mostly have been town-driven.
To be honest, Raskol, gayle, myko, ojanen, CSL all seem town to me. Making me think the last scum is either Plum or Rhinox.

Of the U2 players: Elli seems town to me, Haylen scummy. Don't have a real reason for this other than gut. Dunno about Starbuck yet.

[evilsnail]

Well, to be honest, I missed your comment on the ABR wagon the first time around or at least read over it.

[evilsnail]

Well, I agree with you in that the last votes are not as revealing as I thought. There were two days left before the deadline, though. More worrisome is that I also found a few posts by you that looked very townish.

But, fishy, if you're not scum, then who is? I'm honestly getting town vibes off every single one of the U1 players left.

[evilsnail]

Still here. Sorry, had a busy weekend.

[evilsnail]

Further, those groups were made on what the total group agrees on, meaning that fishy (evil's suspect, but towny according to the rest; ojanen, neutral for myko, town for the rest; CSL, mostly considered town, but with doubts about heavy bussing) are left out because the big majority agrees on them being likely town. The more people agree on it, the more likely it is right (there is a big amount of townies that agrees on it).

I don't think I'm suspicious of fishy any more. He's giving me way too much leeway. He has enough material to make a case on me and make it stick a few times over.

I've been rethinking this game a little, sorting out my reads into strong town reads and weak ones. At this point, I think fishy, gayle, myko, Ojanen and Elli are likely town. CSL I think is probably town too, but only on the basis of pops's behaviour. The rest I'm not so sure about.

[evilsnail]

That was a quick wagon. What's PoE?

Of those votes, Ojanen's is terribly wishy-washy, but that kinda gives her townie points in my eyes, because there's enough on me to make your vote seems stronger. Suggests she's more interested in being honest than in not coming across scummy. Elli's vote makes sense to me. He's been voting me since he teleported in.

I'm a bit surprised by CSL's vote. CSL, you said I was a null-read earlier today. What's changed?

[evilsnail]

On N3, scum killed farside here. Pops was dead, Plum and Rhinox were teleported away. Only people who could have done the kill if the teleported players would have been scum from OU, at that time only Elli/Haylen. Unless they would have known U1 scum wouldn't make a kill in U1 (very implausible), it would have been an extremely stupid move from them to signal that HEY there's scum in the 2 of us.

Plum and Rhinox are not scum together.

This is a good point, which I hadn't considered. We can be relatively sure that we still have 1 U1 scum left.

Atm, I think it's either CSL or SpyreX. I'm starting to reconsider my conclusion that pops's behaviour made CSL likely town, because I don't see very convincing scum elsewhere. CSL's behaviour at least fits scum and I can see a clever pops-scum pushing a policy lynch on their scumbuddy.

CSL needs to answer this:

I'm a bit surprised by CSL's vote. CSL, you said I was a null-read earlier today. What's changed?

[evilsnail]

@SpyreX: Ojanen's point was mainly that pops calling out CSL as his scum read until the end was a risky play and that there was a CSL counter-wagon after the claim. I don't see how this as very strong evidence that CSL is town. Pops knew he wasn't going to be able to teleport, so why not bus in this last statement. It wasn't like we have any evidence the CSL counterwagon after the fake claim was scum-driven.

I really don't like SpyreX's use of deflection in the above exchange with myko.

@myko: Well, I've been suspicious of CSL since the end of D1, which might be why I have trouble shaking the feeling that he's scum. Also, I don't think we should underestimate pops.

[evilsnail]

At the time, pops was the only one voting CSL. A counterwagon could have formed on me just as easily. I don't think we can really say with that much certainty what pops was expecting to happen. Also, it was consistent with what pops had been saying throughout that day. It's not like he had that much room to manoeuvre.

Re deflection: you stressed a couple of times how bad you felt my suspicions of CSL are, when it wasn't that relevant to the exchange. So, I got the feeling you were using it to get attention off you and onto me.

[evilsnail]

There is a difference between pointing out that I still think CSL is a good lynch and stressing how scummy this is.

[evilsnail]

Its pretty scummy so I'm sure as hell not deflecting or making things up.

That being scummy and Mykonian's :headdesk: are not mutually exclusive.

But, OHH NOES, I'm pretty much not going to respond to people without votes up. Maybe that'll help get people to vote my god.

That was just how I saw it. No need to get antsy about it.

[evilsnail]

evilsnail, why is mykonian probably town to you?

Primarily I guess because he backed off on me today. But I also had a town read on him predating that, from Day 1 and 2.

[evilsnail]

Day 4 Vote Count

CSL ( 0 )
evilsnail ( 3 ) Ellibereth CSL ojanen
starbuck ( 0 )
fishythefish ( 0 )
gayle ( 0 )
mykonian ( 1 ) spyrex
ojanen ( 0 )
Ellibereth ( 0 )
spyrex ( 2 ) mykonian fishythefish
Haylen ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 4 ) gayle starbuck evilsnail Haylen
Total Votes ( 10 )

With 10 alive, 6 needed to lynch.
Deadline: March 17th 12:00 EST

Why did you have not have a townread on Day 3?

Well, Day 3 was pretty short. Mostly, I agreed with a lot of what myko was saying Day 1.

I don't quite get how this backing off works with your read. You don't see it as possibly reactional to SpyreX induced happenings?

Hmm.. I went and read the bit where myko backs off his Day 3 vote of me and I guess it wasn't as townie-ish as I thought. As I've said previously, I think both you and fishy are town in part because you've both been very wishy-washy on me, when you needn't have been. Myko sorta did something similar earlier today, here:

I should reread The raskol case is old. Evil is still interesting, but his admitting his scummy things makes me worry. I still have a no-read on Ojanen.

But actually he was already voting SpyreX at this point and the comment mostly repeats what fishy and you have said. So maybe it wasn't as significant as I thought.

I'm starting to re-evaluate my town read on myko.

[evilsnail]

I will be happy with a lynch of you three (myko, SpyreX, evil)

If myko or SpyreX flip town, the other one is scum. If evil is town, both must be scum. Vice versa applies.

Don't ask why, it's just a gut read.

Eh.. forget what I said earlier. CSL is town. This isn't scum-play.

[evilsnail]

It just feels very town. It doesn't make any sense. So I'm back to my original conclusion that CSL is town. I guess my thoughts about this game are kinda all over the place at the moment. I'm also getting a very strong feeling that I was completely wrong about myko and that he's scum at the moment, which I can't really explain very well.

[evilsnail]

I have no prior experience with CSL.

[evilsnail]

I haven't been ignoring the wagon. I just haven't made up on my mind on it. I could see a case on Raskol, but SpyreX hasn't done much to sway me either way.

Why do you think U2 scum will be Haylen?

[evilsnail]

Some interesting happenings in U2. We should definitely await the end of their Night 4 before lynching.

Also, SL has to be town. If Ojanen's 1776, and response-wise zor's 1777 read correct to me, Mafia moved SL here.

If you vote SL, you are scum. No exceptions.

This much seems obvious.

@MOD: If scum wins in U2, are all the roles of the players in that universe revealed?

[evilsnail]

What the hell?

[evilsnail]

Yeah, the mafia gambit in U2 doesn't make that much sense if they don't have their three scum already over there. Unless there's some scenario I'm not seeing.

[evilsnail]

Pretty sure I know why Starbuck hammered. Starbuck is U2-scum who was hoping to be teleported back.

[evilsnail]

Then explain.

[evilsnail]

Well, I was thinking about it and that scenario at least makes sense to me (scum can daytalk, right?). The gambit could have been to teleport away a townie in U2, then have Starbuck hammer here so as to get teleported back for the victory.

But yeah, I agree, DRK is definitely U2-scum.

[evilsnail]

I agree that myko-Plum seems likely at this point, but I don't think there's any rush in lynching him. I still want Starbuck to explain the hammer vote.

[evilsnail]

@CSL: There are two cases on me, I suppose. The first, from Day 2, was largely built on my inactivity. I feel like I've compensated for that since by becoming more active, though. The second case, from Day 3, is based on my interaction with pops. I was a bit ambivalent about the pops wagon, so I ended up staying off it. Also, I voted CSL after the fake claim.

My order of preference at the moment: myko > Phate > CSL > fishy.

[evilsnail]

I think that regardless of what we do, we should try to have U2 lynch first anyway. Once that game is over, we should have more info to go on.

I'm still inclined to think myko is the right lynch today, though his posts today give me a definite townie feeling. This is bothering me a little.

[evilsnail]

Vote: evilsnail

. I offer no justification for this other than gut. Honestly, after reading his iso, I would be surprised if he weren't scum.

Great. Can't say I'm surprised. For some reason, I tend to elicit this response, especially in large games.

The fact that no one's tried to quickhammer a nolynch in the other universe presumably means there's only one scum left there...which I suppose makes me look bad.

I don't get this. How would No Lynch have been possible? It's still technically possible that there are two U2 scum and one U1 scum in U2. Don't think U2 scum can force victory in that situation.

[evilsnail]

My bet would be Haylen-DRK at the moment.

Vote: DeathRowKitty

That's L-1.

[evilsnail]

Awesome.

That gives us three confirmed townies.

[evilsnail]

That's the basis for your vote? After like 70 pages of a game? Now

that

is a scum tell.

FYI, I just posted that right after I saw the NK without thinking and then started reading ISOs to see how it affects my reads. I'm pretty sure now it's you and Phate. I have a probably solid town read on CSL. I'll plan to go into more detail about this when I have more time (should be soon).

[evilsnail]

But you didn't cite any of that in your post, so it felt like you were just voting on the basis of that.

And how did I not bother to defend? I defended my comment just now and I've responded to all those cases when they were brought forward. And I don't really have anything new to say on them. Yes, my interaction with pops looks bad. I wasn't sold on the lynch. And yes, I wasn't very active for a while. I had problems keeping up with the game.

[evilsnail]

And what the hell,

Vote: mykonian

, because it's pretty obvious at this point that you're scum. Your vote on me today is terrible. You have been very inconsistent about the case on me, while never committing yourself to a real town read (like fishy or ojanen). If you at least pretended your vote today was mostly PoE, I would maybe buy it, but it's pretty clear now that I'm just an easy lynch target. We should have lynched you instead of SpyreX. I should have followed through with my gut read then.

[evilsnail]

But you didn't cite any of that in your post, so it felt like you were just voting on the basis of that.

Hey, and that is my problem? That you forget what happened early this game?

I didn't forget it. You didn't mention it and you weren't pushing for my lynch at the end of yesterday, so it looked like you were just voting on the basis of that post. And that's strange. Anyway, your read on me Day 5 seemed to be leaning town. You said so a couple of times towards the end of the day. How come the case against me is convincing today when it apparently wasn't yesterday?

It shows that you are scum. You are the one voting here on no basis, other then that you don't like the vote on you now. I would very much like to see a case on me, that you don't have! Just see below.

A case can easily be made on you. Your interaction with pops wasn't good. But largely this is gut and PoE. Though your inconsistency on me

is

scummy.

[evilsnail]

I have only been reassured in my thinking that Evil is scum. Together with the cases I linked earlier this day, and his OMGUS vote here (since he didn't understand that I was voting him for more then one post. Really?), I am sure Evil must be our lynch here.

It's totally unfair to call it OMGUS. I'm voting you because you're acting today as if the cases on me are very damning when you didn't yesterday. You haven't done anything to justify my believing in that change of heart. Instead, you're just pretending it didn't happen. This is making me believe that you just think I'm an easy lynch target because these cases are out there and that they're not genuine beliefs you hold.

[evilsnail]

I'm ticked off at CSL for that stunt. I said right at the start of Day 1 I had a town read on him. There was absolutely no way I would have hammered him.

As for the scums, I was spot on Day 6:

FYI, I just posted that right after I saw the NK without thinking and then started reading ISOs to see how it affects my reads. I'm pretty sure now it's you and Phate. I have a probably solid town read on CSL. I'll plan to go into more detail about this when I have more time (should be soon).

It's myko and Phate. Interesting to see myko going after Phate, though, considering how much he pushed for my lynch yesterday. My guess is distancing because he's worried he's today's lynch.

Vote: mykonian

[evilsnail]

I have no idea what you're talking about myko. I'm not pulling any argument or subjectively getting anyone to do anything. I gave my opinion on the matter and cast my vote.

And I totally don't get your stance on me. It's obvious I'm scum so we better not lynch me? WTH? If you truly think I'm scum, isn't it superdangerous to lynch you or Phate first?

[evilsnail]

That's just the way I say things. With nuance.

I understand your point more about going after Phate, but I still think it's a weird strategy. Seems to me that if you're sure I'm scum, it makes more sense to go after me. You'll have an easier time getting me lynched. A dangerous choice if you're pro-town (though you aren't).

[evilsnail]

My point is this (and I guess this is mainly for the benefit of everyone else, since I don't need convincing):

If you're town and you're sure I'm scum, squaring off with Phate seems a strategy with clear drawbacks. It risks you losing that battle and getting yourself lynched in the process. I'm a much easier lynch.

If you're scum, though, I can totally understand your choice. You can leave pushing my lynch to Phate, so you don't need to concern yourself with that. You can just wait until one of the U2 players votes me and hammer to end it. It's better for you to put distance between yourself and Phate, because there is a chance you're going to get lynched before me today. In that event, Phate needs to look good, so some distancing will pay off.

[evilsnail]

The fact that you're even concerned with the next day is weird. Heck, I'd just be happy to survive today, because that's the only way we don't lose this game today already. I'll admit openly that I'm going after you because you're the easier target. I know for a fact both you and Phate are scum. I don't really care which one of you we lynch first. The only thing I'm concerned with right now is self-preservation, because my lynch = town loss. Planning for the long haul is something only scum can afford to do right now.

[evilsnail]

Actually:

Snail you just lied. You flip flopped about CSL calling him scum multiple times but only in a recent post did you comment that CSL was town in your reads. Everyone just ctrl+F Snail about this

You're not reading me right. I did call him scum a couple of times in the game - and he was one of my top suspects, but, on Day 5, I changed my mind. I said so very clearly at the beginning of Day 6. If CSL had bothered to look at my opinions that day, he would have known I wasn't going to hammer him.

[evilsnail]

Aaand that's the game, right there.

This is totally my fault.