R-SURVIVAL -- Game Over

[bird1111]

Probably shouldn't be me, I'm too likely to flake if my guess about this being a vig-fest is wrong. (Though considering I can't think of a game with most people being day vigs that DIDN'T turn into a vig-fest...)

[bird1111]

*shrug* random works for me.

GAT: Nachomamma8

[bird1111]

Ellibereth, according to Rule 12, no.

Anon, we are voting for a Gatekeeper who can choose 3 people per day except himself to put in a safe zone, where they are immune to vigging. Also, the scum can talk until we vote for the Gatekeeper, so we need to do this quickly.

[bird1111]

As for summerizing the rules, basically each member of the town can vig once unless they are aiming at someone in or are in the safe zone, but if they are in the safe zone they can leave at any time. Any questions?

[bird1111]

@bird, thanks for the quick answer.

I see we are random picking nacho as gatekeeper. What happens if we pick a scum gatekeeper?

Probably shouldn't have that much effect, all he can do is keep his scumbuddies safe, but doing so continuously is likely to make the gatekeeper and the people he's protecting suspicious.

[bird1111]

I will ask again: can anyone give me a good argument for why the GAT should be using his abilities at all? I still don't see it.

Only think I can think of, probably shitty idea, but whatevs:

Near end of the day, GAT brings in most pro-town player and two scummiest, so scum can't NK most pro-town player without hitting their possible buddies.

From what I can tell, it only protects from vigging.

[bird1111]

Reposting this:

What exactly are we doing here?

Just vote me for Gatekeeper and stop trying to stall for your scumbuddies.

Im not stalling anything, Im analyzing the possible outcomes of this election.

Did you find anything of interest?

[bird1111]

I agree, if there is no real pro-town reason to do it (and I haven't heard any that convinced me), then it shouldn't be done at all.

[bird1111]

The safe zone just seems like a way for mafia to keep other scum from getting dayvigged. If we vote scum as the Gatekeeper then they'll likely move all their scumbuddies into the safe zone. And the safe zone doesn't protect from NKs or lynches, so it doesn't block any mafia actions.
Randomly voting the gatekeeper is risky but since it does reduce the amount of time the scum get to talk pre-game it's the best option right now. I know it's too early to be doubting other players but for all we know Cobalt's "random" vote might not be random at all :/

And I am taking this game WAY too seriously atm. Geez, me, this is too early to be doing all this speculation!

If the gatekeeper actually tries to use the safe zone, lynch them as only scum has any reason too.

Though we should be careful about lynching the people who were put in the safe zone, as scum might try putting townies there as a gambit.

[bird1111]

Assuming 5 mafia:

Code: Select all

Day 1: 5 mafia vs. 11 town
1st Vig hits mafia (31.25%)
2nd Vig hits mafia (~28.5714285714%)
Mafia nightkill hits one of the two vigs of the previous day
Odds of having 3 mafia vs. 10 town with a confirmed innocent heading into day 2: (~8.928571428571489%)

2nd vig hits town (~71.42857142857%)

Odds of 1st vig hitting mafia and second vig hitting town: (~22.3214285714)

1st vig hits town (68.75%)
2nd vig hits mafia (~357142857%)
Odds of 1st vig hitting town and second vig hitting mafia (~22.3214285714)

Odds of having 4 mafia and 9 townies (1 confirmed) after mafia hit one of the vigs heading into Day 2: (~44.64285%)

1st vig hits town (68.75%)
2nd vig hits town (~0.64285714%)
Mafia night kill one of the vigs

Odds of having 5 mafia and 8 townies (1 confirmed) heading into Day 2 (~0.441964285714%)

Odds of hitting at least one mafia Day 1: (~53.57142%)

Not bad odds, especially considering we can afford to miss today as long as we hit tommorow or the following day (2 misvigs today+mislynch tommorow=LyOL Day 3)

Pre-post edit: I should not my math assumes a confirmed innocent for the second shot.

[bird1111]

How does it really protect them? All it does is randomize the scum's kill and keep vigs from killing them. Randomizing the scum's kill doesn't impress me and if we consider people who vig confirmed innocent enough to protect them, wouldn't any one shooting them be scummy enough to consider lynching unless they have an extremely good reason? (and if their reason is good enough to allow the vig, then the person being vigged shouldn't be protected from the vig)

[bird1111]

Taking away some of scum's power to be able to choose their kill target doesn't impress you? You'd rather give scum more options rather than limiting them?

If there is a good enough reason for a vig to shoot someone who has taken a shot already, wouldn't that also be a good enough reason to ask people to step out of the safe zone or to just straight up lynch that player? It isn't like people can never leave the safe zone once they are there.

Does a worse-than-bodyguard protection really limit scum's options?

(And yes, I'd argue a 66%, 50%, or 0% chance of redirecting a kill onto someone scummy looking is worse than a 100% chance of redirecting a kill onto someone who could be anywhere from clean looking to scummy looking; simply because we do not know what the percentage chance while the scum do; while in a bodyguard situation, the bodyguard knows who will take the kill (ie him/her)

[bird1111]

The town Role PM in the front post has a daykill, while the mafia Role PM does not.

[bird1111]

Hmm, random though I had:
From the rules, I'm taking that only each individual in the safezone knows whether or not they're in the safezone, so the GAT could be secretly escorting mafia scumbuddies into the safezone.
If we don't want to use the safezone, or have it used by scum, wouldn't eliminating the GAT D1 (by dayvig or by lynch) and then not voting another one be the opportune way to eliminate it from play? (thus by voting in Nacho as GAT we've basically assured his death... sorry Nacho )
I know it could be a risky move, possibly sacrificing a townie... but if we really want to be sure the safezone isn't used, this seems like the only fool-proof way.

What gives you that impression?

If you are right, daykilling Nachomamma8 is probably for the best whether scum or town to lessen his ability to protect scumbuddies.

[bird1111]

I thought gating people into the safe zone had to be done in-thread.

Same here, that's why I'm asking what gave him that impression.

[bird1111]

Actually,

Mod: Can the Gatekeeper pick who goes in the safezone secretly?

[bird1111]

The town Role PM in the front post has a daykill, while the mafia Role PM does not.

Ah. The queue topic said everyone had a daykill.

Well that changes things. I think we should probably do two daykills then, if we get a confirmed town out of each, and then toss them in with the other most protown guy.

The problem with that is that the mod has specified that the game is not completely open, ie it is possible that one or two scum have a daykill.

[bird1111]

The town Role PM in the front post has a daykill, while the mafia Role PM does not.

Ah. The queue topic said everyone had a daykill.

Well that changes things. I think we should probably do two daykills then, if we get a confirmed town out of each, and then toss them in with the other most protown guy.

The problem with that is that the mod has specified that the game is not completely open, ie it is possible that one or two scum have a daykill.

Or that some town don't.

That too.

[bird1111]

Wait: easy fix. Majority members who know themselves to be bulletless are basically miller equivalents and should claim straightaway.

Not if they are power roles.

QFT.

[bird1111]

Knowing whether the Gatekeeper's actions and player movements are public is important. I thought it would be known when a player was moved, if not then I think it was very foolish to elect a player to have abilities which cannot be monitored by roll of the dice alone.

I still don't see a big downside to putting players we think are town into the Safe Zone. If they start being scummy, we can ask them to come out of the safe zone or just lynch them if they refuse to comply. What do we lose?

At the very least, if all players are inside the safe zone at the end of a given day, then scum don't get to choose their night kills. That by itself doesn't seem so bad to me.

Can someone please explain to me what the downside of putting players in the Safe Zone is that outweighs the positives of putting them in? We can still lynch those players. We can still ask them to step out of the safe zone. We aren't going to be putting scummy players in there, so not being able to be day killed isn't a valid argument in my opinion, we shouldn't be wanting to day kill the players who aren't scummy.

Fair enough on the what do we lose argument, I was focusing on the fact that we don't really gain all that much imo, but since we don't lose anything, its probably worth it.

[bird1111]

Listen, guys, I don't know what is up with all this speculation. Is it only me who thought that this game would just be that everyone had a daykill, find the scum? Without crazy other roles like yankers or whatever?

I thought the game would turn into a daykilling with very little if any scumhunting, does that count?

[bird1111]

Prod on Chamber please

He hasn't posted yet.

Regarding the speculation, I don't think it particularly useful to go into discussion as to what power roles might be/do. It isn't an open setup, it is possible there could be power roles and let's just leave it at that.

@bird1111
It could still become that, though I am a little surprised no one has been shot yet. Good that it hasn't though, gives town a lot more power when we can shoot more constructively or with more information rather than just going trigger happy on each other.

QFT'ing this entire post. Especially the lack of kills being a good thing (I've seen far more games that went kill happy with daykills be a town loss then a town win, it was something like a 5-10% winning percentage)

[bird1111]

Scum Wins:
Expolosiva
Bad Idea Mafia
Bad Idea Mafia 2
Russian Roulette 2
Yosarians Nuke Games (3 in total)
Unreal Tournament Mafia
Worse Idea Mafia - Guardian fails
Marathon Bad Idea Mafias 1 and 2
The 3 games in the The Battle of Heaven Series

Town Wins:
Really Bad Idea
Russian Roulette 1 & 3
UT Prototype (Worst Idea)

Technically a draw, declared scum victory:
ebohanhar

I was off by a fair amount, 20% (not counting ebohanhar due to the draw being due to a horrible ruleset, still low though (though Battle of Heaven Series did not have daykills; though the town did lose due to being far too kill from what I understand, which is why I left them in)

[bird1111]

Bah, go town!

[bird1111]

I'm still wondering why I was nightkilled considering I lurked through the latter half of Day 1.