I'm going to attempt to sum up exactly why I've decided in the last ~15-20 minutes I am certain CKD is scum. After that, if I'm lynched today, please please PLEASE come back and look at this post and examine those reasons.
DGB, I'm talking directly to you. Try to convince Pooky and Thok, to look at this post, too. I want you to promise me that if I die as an Innocent today, you'll interrogate CKD like he has never been probed and prodded before. And if he's scum, you will make him break down and weep for mercy, even as you string the noose around him and send him off to the netherworld.
CKD's Behavior in Scene One
We know that CKD claimed that he was given an opportunity to join "the Enemy," as he put it in his own words. Throughout the day, he reworded and restated this, but never once did he state "the Enemy's" alignment name. It was not until
after Scene One
, after KY Krew had already doomed himself, that he stated the group was called the "Screen Mafia Guild."
What I want to know is, why exactly did CKD withhold "the Enemy's" name from us? If he was told straight away that he could join the Screen Mafia Guild, why didn't he just
state that right away
? It doesn't make any sense to me if he's protown. But if he's scum with KY Krew,
knowing that Krew will be lynched during Scene Two
, he can create this "three scumgroup" atmosphere and throw the town off for as long as he survives.
So, from this, we know that if CKD is innocent, then there must be a Screen Mafia Guild, and there was
at least one Scientologist
.
After CKD read up on the Off Stage thread, he really pushed the whole "3rd party" thing, which is expected. He also called the KY Krew lynch "not very telling," which disturbs me a little.
Issues Behind "Join the SMG," as Presented by MrJellyLee
Nevermind the fact that CKD withheld the "Screen Mafia Guild" name from us, but PJ brought up a very good point that I don't think ever went adequately explained.
As has been discussed, the alignments of the Scene One advocates were independent of everything else. This poses two interesting questions:
1) What if CKD were already an SMG member, and had been given the Advocate information he got? "You can join your own scumgroup?"
2) What if CKD were a Scientologist, and had been given the information he got? If Scientologists are indeed a group (whether cultlike or not), he could rat out the entire rest of the Scientology group, lead a series of lynches on them, and get relatively deep into the game looking like a hero while protecting the identities of his teammates.
Setup and Endgame
This has been sort of the lynchpin (no pun intended) of my uneasiness about CKD all game. Like I just stated, if CKD is innocent, we definitely have three parties. I am fully aware that the rules state there may be other groups, but if you read between the lines and think about how Endgame works with alignments, I think it becomes pretty clear that there are really only two groups -- Innocent and Scientologist. Let the proofs by contradiction begin.
Observation: The rules state that Endgame will contain 2 [Something Else] and 5 Innocents. There are three ways to get to Endgame.
1) All but 5 Innocents are dead.
2) All but 2 [Something Else] Non-Inncoents are dead.
3) Scene 7 is completed.
Observation: There are three possiblities for the Scientologist alignment.
A) There are (or can be) two or more Scientologists as a third party.
B) There is only one Scientologist in the game, as a third party.
C) There are two or more Scientologists as the Primary Non-Innocent Alignment
-------Scenario A-------
Suppose that "Scientologist" is a non-Innocent alignment which has or can have more than one member.
Consider 1).
If all but five Innocents are dead, the scums will be forced to choose those 5 Innocents to participate in Endgame. The rules state that 'the [Something Else] alignment will choose' 2 [Something Else]s to participate. However, it is unclear which [Something Else] alignment this refers to.
If there are 2 or more Scientologists alive, and they choose players, they will choose two of their own, and the SMG will be unable to win.
If there are 2 or more SMGs alive, and they choose players, they will choose two of their own and the Scientologists will be unable to win.
I argue that this is impossible, since Mr. Grey wouldn't create a setup that could force one team to autolose, without them having any control over what happens to them.
Thus, Scenario A is extremely unlikely, because there is a very good chance that a group of players will automatically lose the game due to a horrible setup.
-------Scenario B-------
Suppose that Scientologist has exactly one member as a Third Party.
This would necessarily mean that the SMG has control over choosing players for Endgame. So, let us again consider Scenario 1).
KY Krew survives until there are only 5 Innocents left, so the Innocents are stuck with the Worst Endgame Scenario. The scums are forced to choose those 5 Innocents to participate in Endgame, and they can choose 2 [Something Else]s.
If there are 2 or more SMGs alive, they will obviously choose 2 SMGs, and KY Krew will lose (unless he had a completely alternate win condition, such as the BALCO alignment).
Consider Scenario 2).
Or, if we reach the end of Scene 7, and there are 3+ SMGs, 6+ Innocents, and Krew left, then Krew autoloses again, through the same steps seen above.
So the only way Krew could win is if he's not an SK, but a lone third-party with an alternate win condition that does not involve his survival to Endgame, but involves achieving an objective before Endgame takes place.
Possible, but highly unlikely.
------Scenario C------
First of all, if Scientologists are the PINA, then what the heck are the SMGs?
At any rate, this Scenario pans out exactly the same as Scenario A. If the Scientologists are choosing at endgame, then it's likely that the SMGs will be put in a situation in which the game is 100% unwinnable for them. So like Scenario A, Scenario C implies a horrible setup which is unwinnable for a group of players.
Conclusion: The only way CKD could be telling the truth, based on Endgame mechanics and rules wording, is if KY Krew was acting by himself and had to achieve an objective before Endgame.
CKD's On Camera Choices
Unless I am mistaken, CKD has chosen Actors for three scenes now -- Scenes 3-5, and for TWO of those scenes, his claimed choices do not add up with who was actually put On Camera.
In Scene 3, he claimed that he tried to put both MrJellyLee and BagelEatingCowfrog On Camera, but both of them died so he ended up there instead.
First of all, I would guess that if too many of his chosen Actors died, the mod would ask him to choose another backup/replacement. I asked for clarification on this, but Mr. Grey basically said he couldn't tell me what happened if a bunch of the Director's choices were killed in the same night.
Furthermore, I'm reasonably certain that MrJellyLee requested to be left Off-Stage and not-Stuntman, because MrBuddyLee hadn't had a chance to read the Off-Stage thread yet. I don't think you ever explained why you tried to stick them On Camera anyway.
Thirdly, there may be an issue with the timing of choices. We know that the scums pick the Advocate(s) after the Director has chosen who goes On Camera. I don't know for certain how the order of choices work, but in order for CKD to be made Advocate for Scene Three, the timing would have had to be this:
FIRST, Scum choose who to kill.
SECOND, CKD chooses who goes On Stage.
THIRD, Scum choose the Advocate(s).
I'm not convinced that choices work like that. Mr. Grey refused to tell both me and Talilan what would happen if several of the Director's chocies got killed overnight, so I doubt he would have told the scums that information. Based on that, I don't think they would have
known
to choose CKD as an Advocate. This reeks of pre-planned setup to me.
Now, let's look at today's Scene, Scene Five. CKD claims that the scums just completely changed who he sent On Camera. I call complete and utter horseshit on this one.
First of all, CKD claims that he was supposed to put himself On Camer for this scene. Remember Scene Three? His very first post was along the lines of "oh my god, I didn't ask to be here." In Scene Three, he
immediately
knew that he was in the wrong place, but in Scene Five, he somehow managed to miss the fact that he had access to the Off Stage thread? No sense whatsoever.
There are only
TWO
ways that CKD could know that day had started.
1) He couldn't see the Off Stage thread anymore, so he immediately knew that he was On Camera
2) He checked the Off Stage Thread and saw a post from Mr. Grey indicating that Day had started.
CKD, explain to me how you managed to know that On Camera was open for Scene 5 without looking at the Off Stage thread at all. It makes ZERO sense to me whatsoever, and it VERY STRONGLY implies that you lied about having your choices switched around.
On a semi-related note, I don't believe for a second that Mr. Grey would include the ability to switch Director's choices for the scums. I think it imbalances the game severely, because look where we are stuck now. Why would Grey give this kind of hideous advantage to the scums at a most crucial juncture? I want CKD to make an argument that "Scums can change the Director's Choices" maintains balanced gameplay.
I feel like there's one other thing I forgot, but my head is swimming right now, so I am going to go lie down for a while.
Again, DGB, read what I've posted. You don't have to believe me right now -- I've pretty much accepted that I will probably be lynched today -- but I am honestly like 80-85% certain that CKD has been lying through his teeth all game, and that he's been given the leeway he needs by people like Talilan, who refuse to change their minds under any circumstances. Stop and THINK about what is necessary for CKD to be telling the truth. Once you do, I think you'll find that his antics are extremely far-fetched.