California Trilogy: City of Angels - Off Stage (Game Over)
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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zwetschenwasser wrote:/confirmza
I know DGB is lying. Do I have to change my avatar? I'd prefer not to.
ANALYSIS:
"confirmza" - made to appear cool, even though he hesitated, wondering if I could really know his alignment from this alone.
"I know DGB is lying." - sounding nervous.
OUTPUT:
63% scum.[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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To tell you the truth, I'm still incredibly confused abouthowthis game works. I've tried rereading and rereading the rules. . .
Does anyone have a very clear and concise explanation of the mechanics in this game? I don't feel that I can start playing until I understand. I mean, I don't need to understand completely, but I'm reallyreallyconfused about it all.
-Bridges
P.S. All previous posts were made by DGB[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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I agree that Day 1 is the most important day and it is not random at all. It's like the first few moves in chess.
I disagree that we should not use Condorcet. Scum lists are often very revealing, and the Condorcet votes are exactly like a scum list. We can use it to ensnare scumbuddies, once we've caught a live one.
I'm going to have to do something I've never done in any mafia game before, namely, read the rules. Until my eyes are burning.
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In completely different news, how can I ever hope to amaze the whole crew with my psychic reading of zwet's alignment if he refuses to post with his usual combination of brevity AND especially frequency?
I need some material. Zwet where are you? You're not hiding from me are you?
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Not in the least. His alignment is so transparent that I like to get a strong vibe as early in the game as possible. The reactions from the rest of the players are extremely telling. In this respect, zwet is an invaluable asset to the town, he truly has no match.Mighty Orbots wrote:DGB, you're tunneling awfully hard on zwet.[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Talillan 119
Your word choice here seems to imply you know that scum don't have night kills. I just reread the rules (again. . .) and I couldn't find anything to suggest this. I don't like using slips anymore ( I used to really like them, but have recently found them to not work well) to find scum, but this one looks better than most.advocate(s) chosen by scum for subsequent scenes. They will still get the useful information whether they be scum or town. They are kind of like a weird version of night-kill choices for the scum.
I'd want to vote for you, but I haven't talked to my other head.
DGB: PLEASE check your inbox. I sent you a url that we can talk to eachother with.
-Bridges
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Gaspar has convinced me about the MafiaJin thing. I have a block of time reserved for reading the instructions carefully tomorrow. I will vote accordingly but only after I'm familiar with the rules.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Rules read and understood. It wasn't so hard, actually. I get it. I'll explain it all to my hydra.
What's up with KY Krew? Vanishing act already? Or hard lurking? InHim is famous for vanishing acts, but raj isn't, so I'm leaning towards intentional lurking.
I think zwet is scum, he's real nervous and tentative, and not at all his usual self. I've never seen him that scummy. It's like he's trying to mete out his content to slow down the rate at which he's going to inevitably get caught. At some point, he showed that he has no idea what the soundtrack business is about, which is something his buddies, if he has any, might have explained to him. Mind you, he might not be paying attention to either the game or the QT. So although I'm strongly leaning scum for his alignment, I can't decide whether the soundtrack ignorance means he's actually town, or some kind of scum on his own.
MafiaJin needs to be taken care of, he's the forefront, and zwet and KY Krew are on the backburner.
In more positive news, my worries that players like Gaspar and Mighty Orbots may be scum are eased by their pro-town dedication and excellent logic, but I must remind myself to remain paranoid. They have fooled many before.
-DGB
vote: MafiaJin, zwet, KY Krew, [everyone else], [Gaspar, Mighty Orbots], GoofballsAndBaloons
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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If you don't mind my answering this question that is not addressed to me, I would say that if MafiaJin flips scum, at least one of the three people he took with him is scum, with nearly 100% certainty. Quite possibly exactly one.Thok wrote:Gaspar, if MafiaJin does come up some form of scum, what do you think that says about the other three people he took with him on stage?
Players chosen at random have closer to 1/3 chance of being scum than 2/3 chance of being scum. So there is no reason not to take a buddy along with him, if he were town, chances are pretty good that's what he'd end up with choosing a scum randomly anyway. Why waste that opportunity of bringing a buddy of his choice along, while keeping within the confines of what he would have done by chance? I am sure that opportunity was taken.
If he flips scum, and the players decide to examine which players he brought along with him, the chances of the town hitting scum among the players he brought with him are, again if choosing at random, nearly the same as if the town was choosing among the rest of the players, removing any advantage for the town to start lynching those players. That's because with bringing one buddy, the chances are 1/3, which is quite close to what it is among the remaining players.
Now I don't know if the MafiaJin hydra is a maverick risk taker in general. But that's what he'd need to be to have the guts to take 2/3 buddies along with him. If he's lynched and flips scum, the town will be shooting fish in a barrel. Players with better understanding of the members of this hydra will be able to make a better guess than me.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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I can easily see a hydra like MafiaJin think no further than wanting to avoid being lynched.elmosaurian wrote:DGB, I'm not really clear on your thinking here. Why is it you think scum would want members of their scum team on-camera? I could see scum going either way; scum on camera can't get lynched, but more scum off camera means they get more influince over the lynch. I don't really think the day 1 on camera decision should be at all hard for the town people on camera to get right, considering there are two advocates and all that, so I don't really think getting more or less scum votes on camera are likely to matter.[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Both advocates are voting to follow Valentine Wiggin. CKD is probably being truthful about changing alignment. But which alignment? WIFOM here I come.elmosaurian wrote:On a side note, this comment, on camera, is kind of worrying.
Pro-town people can choose to flip and become scum at certain points? Really?curiouskarmadog wrote:If I drive, we will lose one of our numbers. For I will no longer be an innocent. You see, I had a choice. I know Valetine is meant to drive. However, if I convinced you to let me drive, I would get to join the Enemy.[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Elmosaurian, I get that they are probably both saying the truth about defending the "good choice." But are they both advocating in favor of the choice that is "good for scum" or "good for town?" Or am I missing something.
I just realized my vote makes no sense, MafiaJin is on camera.
-DGB
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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There are few possibilities:Mighty Orbots wrote:I don't like that Hewitt seems to be implying that those on camera should be considering doing something long term this scene other than agreeing with the advocates on day one. If both of them are saying that one of the choices is the good choice then that's what they should be doing.
-Zorblag R`Lyeh
POSSIBILITY 1
(1) Advocate A is scum and pushing the pro-scum choice.
(2) Advocate B is lying and has become scum, not town, and is also pushing the pro-scum choice.
POSSIBILITY 2
(1) Advocate A is town and pushing the pro-town choice.
(2) Advocate B is telling the truth and has become town, not scum, and is also pushing the pro-town choice.
I'm not sure what hewitt is trying to get at, it's a little strange.
Meanwhile I'm not liking KY Krew's intense lurking. There's no excuse in a game like this with posting requirements. Am I understanding correctly that the scum will pick which townies are in endgame? If that's the case KY Krew or its replacement might make the shortlist.[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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@zwet
How about some image that combines a demon and an angel?
It shouldn't be too difficult. It's kinda scummy how you appear to be stalling thinking up the obvious.
In other news, KY Krew's SL vote really reeks. Of what? Could it be diesel? Bus fumes? KY Krew is voting SL for NOT BEING CLEAR??? What kind of vote is that, when you clearly show (amidst denials) that you're totally not paying attention at all, and that nothing, nothing at all in your entire single post, shows evidence of having read anything but a couple of paragraphs related to your job.[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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zwet, did you read the rules for your job?
You're supposed to post it on camera. Not here.rules wrote:If you do not have a Role in the current Scene, you may post an image On Camera. This image may contain no text of any kind (in any language), and must be no larger than 800x600. You may do this twice per Scene. You may not post images if you are in a Scene. Do not attempt to communicate through means other than the image itself (for example, renaming the image and hosting it somewhere yourself) - such an an attempt is a violation of Rule 6, and may result in a modkill.[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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I agree with this and sort of disagree with my hydra, DGB. I think Zwet is taking advantage of DGB unfocusing on Zwet and attacking MafiaJin. I think Zwet is very likely scum if MafiaJin is not scum. I'm still deciding whether the MafiaJin slip is legitimate or not. I don't see them both as scum as the moment. I need to rethink and consult with DGB. Oh wait, MafiaJin isn't in right now. That makes it easy. But I don't see the KY vote reasoning, don't understand it. Sorry to undermine you DGB, butBagel Eating Cowfrog wrote:I'm not sold. My gut is telling me this is overblown (and I'm incredibly wary of slips anyway). I don't see that his actions in putting himself on stage are the massive crime that Gaspar is making them out to be (at best a mistake, though). I don't feel the slip is particularly worthwhile. In short, I'm not a fan of the wagon.
Zwet, otoh, I think is looking pretty damn scummy. His post rebutting DGB is unusually long and detailed for him, and was already his second post addressing the situation; he's worried enough about it that he has to address it twice before giving any thoughts on the game. Yet when I quizzed him about it, he claimed that it was impossible to defend against anyway. So why spend such effort trying (and yes, for zwet that was a relatively large amount of effort). Then there's the buddying up to DGB, the person attacking him, which screams scum to me. I really think zwet is a much better lynch than MafiaJin.
-Shanba
unvote
vote: [Zwet, KY Krew], Shadowlurker, [everyone else], [Gaspar, Mighty Orbots], GoofballsAndBaloons
-Bridges
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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I'm going to quote what DGB explained to me in our quicktopic. I hope she doesn't mind:Thok wrote:Could somebody familiar with zwet's meta give me a rough idea of what you think is his typical scum and town behavior? (It seems like he's posting less than I would expect him to given his reputation, but I don't really agree with the buddying thing; he feels like a typical inexperienced player who is more focused on analyzing his attackers than on what else is happening in the game.)
"Now, for zwet. Zwet usually makes a gazillion posts without any thinking whatsoever, or content. Here, he's being serious, and not posting as much. "
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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That's absolutely true, very well put. However, mercifully, there's the Sajin factor, so I'm not ready to make excuses for MafiaJin. But MafiaJin is ON camera, I don't think he's lynchable today.ShadowLurker wrote:I really don't like the MafiaJin lynch. I've never played with Sajin, but MafiaSSK isn't exactly the brightest character and is prone to be frustratingly selfish.
That's probably because the scum here is KY Krew. As evidenced by entering the game with a vote on you, for, no joke, "NOT BEING CLEAR." I mean, seriously. I want KY Krew dead much more than zwet, KY Krew is more scummy by a full order of magnitude but we have an inter-hydra disagreement here between B&B and DGB. ShadowLurker, I'm surprisedShadowLurker wrote:Don't feel like Mighty Orbots' post is indicative of scum, just a bit of unwise probing and don't think elmosaurian's post seemed forced.you're not rewarding KY Krew with your own big fat vote.
Yes, it's for distancing. But already I'm reconsidering this since you seem reasonable and non-manipulative so far. I'd like to see more from you.ShadowLurker wrote:GoofballsandBalloons: I'm 3rd on your list but I don't think you've pointed out anything I've done. Do you think KY Krew was badly trying to distance or what? It's fine if you don't feel like answering this question at this moment.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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What kind of worthless, one-word "analysis" is that? Of all that's been said, including some actual issues, that's what you choose to pick on?KY Krew wrote:raj confuses himself sometimes.unvote
Scum.Mighty Orbots wrote:stuff
Forced.elmosaurian wrote:stuff
"Playing as pro-town as possible" is Captain Obvious, but "it gives scum a much harder time to pick endgamers?" What are you talking about. That's a stragegy? Scum will have plenty to choose from among players with bad judgment, players that don't find the scum suspicious, etc.KY Krew wrote:Playing as pro-town as possible should be everyone's agenda - it gives scum a much harder time to pick endgamers. Lurking is :nothelpful:, our bad.
So we are to expect more lurking from you despite your own proposed strategy that the rest of us should behave in a pro-town manner?KY Krew wrote:We aren't quite ready to jump into the Scene - inHim would like some more time to hunt.
Later, later, always later.KY Krew wrote:I'll look back at that later.
What if CKD is convincingly town?KY Krew wrote:Reading On-Camera, ckd will have to be lynch, iio (in inHim's opinion) - too much WIFOM to let scum infuse the endgame with.
Later, later, always later.KY Krew wrote: I seem to recall a short run of decision votes that may clue us into players wanting to hurry along the Scene - I'll look at that later.[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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That means you think Talilan is more scum than KY Krew? I think KY Krew is more scum. Let's debate this.Gaspar wrote:You know, KY Krew could switch (actor) roles with Talilan to take her off-stage...
I think KY Krew is faking paying attention to the game, is making ridiculous half-arsed judgments, hasn't read anything beyond a cursory skimming (otherwise they'd have noticed we have some issues going on, and commented appropriately), threw in a stupid vote for SL (oh yeah, better get the distancing going, that's the least we can do!), and is pretending to offer strategic advice ("let's all play townie!!! except me, I have a license to lurk").
You can make a case that Talilan is being cautious, and perhaps fearing that all is not always what is seen on the surface, tries to dig deeper. It's obvious to me, but maybe not to Talilan.
So Gaspar, if you can make a convincing case that Talilan is scummier than KY Krew, I'm listening. Because if that's the case, they we should make sure that KY Krew and Talilan trade places.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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That, I got.Gaspar wrote:Elmosaurian wrote:I know we can't lynch Talilan today, but I'm still pretty sure I've all ready caught a scum.Gaspar wrote:You know, KY Krew could switch (actor) roles with Talilan to take her off-stage...
There's not really anything to "bring you up to speed" on.Gaspar wrote:Elmosaurian stated that Talilan cannot be lynched today. I pointed out that techincally, she can.
We get KY Krew to move himself ON camera, we bring Talilan OFF camera, and we lynch that player.
I thought that when you wrote, in post #240,
... that you were suggesting that this should be made to happen.Gaspar wrote:You know, KY Krew could switch (actor) roles with Talilan to take her off-stage...
Just to be clear on your meaning, you do not wish for KY Krew to switch places with Talilan, you're only mentioning it as a theoretical possibility?[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Indeed.zwetschenwasser wrote:There's always the possibility that if the town chooses something that kills a player they could kill KY.
I also approve the picture if that's the message we still want to send. How about a Valentine heart? Would that be a better message?[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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We would need to dictate what exactly he's going to say. Any deviation should be under penalty of death.Thok wrote:Sending in the KY Krew would be a more efficient way to handle that (plus it would allow us to send in specific questions that other people may have.)[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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GAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Didn't have time to post today. Only time to check my modded game. Sorry.
The reason I'm posting this is because I was preparing to do a reread through today but I didn't have time. I mean, I didn't promise a big post today, but I promisedmyselfa big post today. I will tomorrow.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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It doesn't work for me. That's because, having announced your "policy" of only casting deciding votes, you pull two anti-town stunts in one go.zwetschenwasser wrote:I do realize it's a condorcet system, but I don't like voting unless I'm hammering. It works for me.
First, if you're scum, we can't hold hammering a townie against you, and it might allow you to hammer townies and remain unpunished, because, hey, that's your policy.
Second, if you're town, we lose some of our ability to hold real scum accountable for their actions.
Is there a scenario where your policy is pro-town? If so, I'd like to read your explanation.[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Posting this in both my games
I had prepared to take a lot of time now (an hour before now and then hours after) working on the game.
There is a very serious fire 15-20 minutes away from me near where I go to school and many of my friends are near and are evacuating.
Busy tryin to contact them.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Thank you for that wikitell, throwing IIoA at us for no valid reason at all. I object to "pretty much it" since Mighty Orbots has, so far, 40KY Krew wrote:And that's pretty much it from Orbots - information, no analysis..."productiveposts, compared to your 6 bizarre ones.
Is this fancy talk to suggest that we should policy lynch zwet and MafiaJin in case the scum chooses them for endgame, while pleading that we should keep YOU, because you'd be great at endgame?KY Krew wrote:We as KY Krew feel we could cut away some of the "meta-chaff" - zwet and MafiaJin are two that we had in mind - we know we haven't participated as much as some so far, but do feel we are very capable of closing out a game, and moreso than either of those players (again, aware that this shouldn't necessarily excuse us from our actions, but it's a very pertinent point to consider for this game in particular). It's the town's pleasure if we stuntman into the scene or not, and we were thinking of replacing MafiaJin if we did use our action.
Gwd help us all. Vote stays.I will switch to zwet if he fails to provide Condocet + detailed explanations in his next post.@ zwet - I'd rather keep my vote on KY Krew. Do oblige me.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Let me volunteer something. The way zwet (KY Krew's competing wagon) has been playing, if he were scum, he'd have been bus'ed so hard all our necks would be in a tight twist from the head spinning. That has got me thinking that despite his not paying attention, his slow reaction time with his job, and his appalling hammer-only policy he may, much to my chagrin, be town.Thok wrote:DGB (this question is directed at her part of the hydra):
1. Roughly how many scum do you think are on the current KY Krew wagon?
2. Roughly how many scum do you think are Off Camera, but aren't part of the KY Krew wagon?
3. Roughly how many scum do you think are On Camera (feel free to break the On Camera into proLocke and proValentine groups and guess the number of scum in those groups)?
I like your questions because it forces me to think in terms of numbers, something I don't usually do until later in games.
1. We're 20 players. I expect 3-5 scum. Let's say 4. So about 2 scum off camera. I would say 1 scum on the wagon, at the most, if there is one. Despite KY Krew having 4 votes, the case itself isn't getting a huge amount of traction, and zwet is a mega-distraction. The scum won't bus KY Krew when zwet is working so diligently to get himself lynched.
2. One or two. I'm leaning two. I can see BEC as an opportunistic scum voter on the zwet wagon. And of course, KY Krew who voted SL (who is quite townish) and now MO (who is quite helpfully townish).
3. Let's say 2. That's a tough one. I think a player would need to be more than a little bold to suggest anything other than letting Valentine Wiggin drive. By the same token, I believe that a townie might want to be cautious in a "I can't be so simple" kind of way. So among the players wanting to follow Locke, there will be two types. One type that fears following the obvious conclusion by imagining levels of complication that may not exist, and bold scum. hewitt appears to be quite safely town here, he's the first (except Wiggin and Locke themselves) to set the tone with a vote for Wiggin (which he forgot to bold but hey). As for the others, I'd like to see how they vote. If a Locke voter is known for gambitting, could be scum. If a Locke vote is known for wordy complexity, I would lean town.
I'm leary of Seraphim and Rawr Hydra for lack of activity, and lack of voting.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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I said it's because he's easiest for me to read. Right now I don't think he's on any scum team, because his buddies would have bus'ed him fatally already.Thok wrote:My poke at DGB was an attempt to get a feel for how she felt the game was going; she really was tunneled on zwet early on for not obvious reasons.
Funny, I'm actually not tunneling on zwet as much as some other players, some of which are backing up their suspicion with a vote. If you want to find me tunneling, please let it be on KY Krew.Thok wrote:It reminds me of Evolution mafia (PJ and pie's weird theme game) where she was focused on a Fritz-scum but made no effort to hunt for people in a second scum group, which was a hint that she belonged to that other scum group...
Looks like plenty of potential replacements on the list.Thok wrote:Finally, I'd guess that Seraphim is being replaced in 24 hours (assuming that the replacement list isn't empty; a replacement is preferable to a modkill.)[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Given that I've altered my stance on zwet's alignment past some early poking to see which way he'd flinch, and other players would sway, I don't see how you can call it tunneling. I don't care what Orbots thinks, either. I like to get a grip on zwet's alignment early because he gets lynched/bus'ed early. If I find him scum, then it's easy to zoom in on his buddies after zwet is lynched. If I find him town, you can usually find the opportunistic scum just as easily. Plus I read him (and players' reactions to him) like a book - within a few pages, usually.Thok wrote:Or do you just not consider that tunneling at all?
Presently I'm not super-confident of Gaspar's alignment on account of the reasons and placement of his vote in the order. He could have unvoted if he wanted to prevent a KY Krew quick lynch. But he switched to zwet.
I'm also not seeing a whole lot of scumhunting from Cowfrog. Given the collective abilities of thistriplehydra, I was expecting them to blow my socks off. So the zwet vote strikes me as a little cheap.
I'm also disappointed to see that's where Orbots landed his vote, but I can see Papa Zito doing it.[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Gaspar seems to think that Thok is quieter than usual, too.Bagel Eating Cowfrog wrote:
lol hypocrisyzwet wrote:Thok, from what I've seen of him, isn't this quiet and doesn't post so quietly, even with excuses.
do you realize that this also applies to you pretty much exactly?
-dahill
Do you recall this Thok post?
Thok said the same thing about zwet, that zwet just said about Thok, if only in a slightly wishy-washier way.Thok wrote:Could somebody familiar with zwet's meta give me a rough idea of what you think is his typical scum and town behavior? (It seems like he's posting less than I would expect him to given his reputation[...]
Do you want to "lol hypocrisy" to Thok too?
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Bagel Eating Cowfrog wrote:...while Thok didn't seem to being doing the same to zwet just making a note of his sparse posting.
Thok's objective was to assess zwet's alignment. It's more subtle, and he reached no conclusion because no one spoon fed him data on zwet's meta, but there's a similarity there.Thok wrote:Could somebody familiar with zwet's meta give me a rough idea of what you think is his typical scum and town behavior?
Your current thoughts on the KY Krew wagon vs. the zwet wagon would be much appreciated.Bagel Eating Cowfrog wrote:Our vote on zwet isn't "cheap". We put on him because he's...scummy.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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hey guys, I'm currently working on a big 'ole meta of zwet. I think he's such an easy lynch to make in games, that I'm going to figure out what exactly seperates his different playstyles as scum and town.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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I see to no reason to clamor for claims when both vote leaders have only 3/6 votes required for a lynch.
If a player grows some and puts someone at L-2, we'll start talking claims.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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We haven't a clue what the continued presence of Mr Grey means in this particular game.MrJellyLee wrote:Needless to say, I now -- even more so -- am convinced that trying to lynch Mr. Grey is a waste of time.
Without information, we are unable to form an idea on whether lynching Mr Grey is or isn't a good idea.
The real question is, "do we leave him be, or do we decide to lynch him and hope for an interesting surprise?"
Now, the town is in a majority, so this is the town's decision to make. Unless the scum knows something we don't. No one is really pushing for it, so if the scum knows anything, it's that lynching Mr Grey not in the scum's favor. Otherwise there would be an impetus to push for it. It's a mega-huge "IF." MO did bring it up enthusiastically, but got no traction with anyone else - so his is an individual effort, not a group one. Either no one knows anything, or the scum believes lynching Grey might help the town.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Questions for JellyLee:
(1) Why is Thok so high on the list? I can think of reasons, but I want to know yours.
(2) What are your thoughts on zwet and KY Krew? Since you elected to vote off-wagon, I'd like to know why. Scum often likes to hide off-wagon.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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That's probably not confusing for troll, but it might be for humans. How about a picture of a sitting dog for "stay" and a picture of a a wall switch for "switch?"Mighty Orbots wrote:Picture of a car: Done with discussion/lynch, those on camera stay with the door the advocate picked at the start.
Picture of a goat: Done with discussion/lynch, those on camera switch to the door the advocate didn't pick at the start.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Also, this is raj/inHim we're talking about...zwetschenwasser wrote:Don't dismiss what you just posed as a possibility as an impossibility. Rash decisions sometimes are warranted. I actually find KY a tad less scummy for doing something so obviously blatantly a feasible scum tactic. Delaying a lynch doesn't sound like a good tradeoff for confirming yourself as scum in my book.
I'm going to suspend judgment on this one. It better be good.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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It won't be necessary if the players ON camera don't trust KY Krew, which may well be the case without effort on our part.
Also, depending on what he's going to say, we might want to suggest that KY Krew be trusted, through the thought of this is as appealing as eating sand.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Allow me to laugh my head off into a spectacular array of fireworks.elmosaurian wrote:That's an impressive hydra. Ok, guys, I'm expecting you to have caught all the scum by the time I finish getting caught up.
You'll never guess who Mr JellyLee is voting for - already.[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Notably, he didn't switch with MafiaJin, who was everyone else's main ON camera suspect.elmosaurian wrote:In any case, he sent Talilan back to us. Talilan was one of my main suspects, and I guess he still is, but if KY is scum, I doubt he'd send us a scum buddy of his to lynch.
If KY Krew is scum, what does that make MafiaJin?[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Mmm, I guess I didn't think that through properly... yeah.Talilan wrote:DGB: Just one thing I was wondering about. You said that you don't think Zwet is scum because he hasn't been bussed. But you also said you think there's likely only 2 scum offstage. If Zwet was one of those scum, that would only leave one to do the bussing, so your reason for thinkiing him innocent doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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If KY Krew is scum, and he wanted to switch places with a townie that might be lynched, it's pretty interesting that he would have picked Talilan.
That's because the most likely player to be lynched in such a switch would have been MafiaJin. However, if MafiaJin is scum, then KY Krew (again if KY Krew is scum) would not have picked MafiaJin.
Does that make sense?
In any event, consider us extremely unlikely to vote Talilan today.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Thinking about this some more, I think that Talilan being almost confirmed by probable scumbag KY Krew slinking off to avoid being lynched (and now back to lurking, despite his making it sound urgent) and putting her here within lynching range instead of MafiaJin.
So right now I'm rather inclined to thinking that Gaspar is scum for pursuing Talilan, and that his going after MafiaJin was distancing. I see KY Krew, Gaspar, and MafiaJin in the scumteam ATM.
@ Thok
OK, poking Talilan is scum hunting. What did you find?[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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I agree with the above.Talilan wrote:The pic is fine. I'm in two minds whether the pic should be posted straight away to be safe, or if we should wait a bit to see what the other on-stage players say about it first
If they don't trust KY Krew without our help, we can use our picture power for something more useful later if necessary. Let's not waste it.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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You know what? You're right. I am letting him getting away on reputation.Talilan wrote:It is really frustrating that Gaspar is not a viable lynch today when everyone is letting him slide by on reputation when really he is acting as scummy as it is possible for one player to act, and elmo and Thok are both towing the party line.
vote: Gaspar[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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BridgeAndBaloons has no time to post but he gave me his data from the zwet meta he finally finished. I couldn't find it, he put in under "Notes" in our account, I had never used or noticed this feature before.
Among these games, the finished ones were examined:
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... c&&start=0
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... c05e33fd80
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11722 (but replaced out)
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11217
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 6bbd974fa0
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10927
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... c&&start=0
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11294
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... c&&start=0
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11181
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10857
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... cb8a4c4d1e
Here's what he did. He calculated the average number of words in each post (not counting quoting other players) as town and as scum. As town, he had 9.5 words per post, and as scum, 10.4. Bridges doesn't feel this is a statistically significant increase in wordiness as scum.
He also calculated the expected number of posts per game, which depends on the number of players in the game, only counting the time before zwet dies. As town, zwet posts 6% more than his fair share. As scum/SK, he posts 18% more than his fair share. He appears to post a lot more as scum than as town.
In this game (City of Angels), at the time when Bridges made his calculations, zwet had posted exactly as much as expected in a game with this number of players, which is closer to his town posting profile than his scum posting profile, which is quite distinct.
Therefore, following Bridges' analysis, the GAB hydra is now in agreement that zwet is probably town.[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Here's a timeline.
(1) KY Krew is the lynch-du-jour.
(2) He slinks off stage.
(3) zwet becomes the lynch-du-jour.
(4) Gaspar takes some heat.
(5) Gaspar defensively switches his vote to zwet to save his own keister.
(6) Somehow, KY Krew, the King of Lurk, has his timing perfectly figured out to end the day, mere hours after Gaspar's zwet vote, and just in time to save Gaspar's keister.
(7) If KY Krew isn't buddies with Gaspar, with Gaspar pulling his puppet strings and urging him to end the day ASAP, I will eat my hat.
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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Exactly.ShadowLurker wrote:To be fair, without accounting for Gaspar's vote switch, zwet is still the outright Condorcet winner and wins all pairings despite Gaspar having a plurality vote.
KY Krew ended the day before anyone could change their Condorcet, and perhaps lower zwet and raise Gaspar.
I wonder if my relaying of Bridges' analysis, that changed Bridges' own mind regarding zwet's alignment, made them nervous.
The tide was not riding in Gaspar's favor.
Exactly. That is the normal assumption in a nightless game.ShadowLurker wrote:In this game though, I feel like there is a good chance of scum being able to communicate at any time given how there really aren't days and nights.[size=75]This is a block of madness that can be added to insanity you post. There is a 255 psychiatric limit.[/size]-
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GoofballsAndBaloons Goon
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