Advertising Mafia - Over, see 1183

[Ojanen]

Hi.
I've been mildly skimming along but I'll take a proper look now, I probably need until Wednesday night to do that.

[Ojanen]

I got prodded.
I'm on page 15. I'll use tonight to get through the rest.
Said I would be ready on Wed., sorry for needing this long.

[Ojanen]

Lost access after finishing the read and posting in the qt yesterday; now on the road. All my thoughts coming in 7 hours or so once I get home.

[Ojanen]

Since the Seraphim kill is such a pivotal point in the game and much of the reads depend on that I'll comment to MichelSableheart first.
I'm not sure I'm fully grasping his way of thinking yet.

At the point of the game day 1 working hours had been going on for 5 days. The wagon was on L-2 without Ren, but I'm not used to seeing quicklynching wagons on this site. I'm not sure it's a great assumption to think that the scum was assuming to be stuck in the voting position it was currently in to make the nightkill if Ren would be scum. Seems like would be more credible to see if the position changes rather than playing incredibly risky.

Basically, the chances of seraphim dying and Ren Hoek dying cancel each other out, and the chances of Scotmany dying and somebody off the wagon dying cancel each other out.

what are you saying here? "Wonderful 22,5%" and "horrible 22,5%" cancel each other out, 25% "acceptable" and 22,5% bad cancel each other out, plus the rest difficult to evaluate stuff?
What does "canceling out" mean in this context and scum psychology and stuff?
I just see that your percentages put the chances of ren dying by way the nightkill to 70%.
Without the selfvote, the chances of him dying because of the nk are, if we accept your percentages, 22,5% (he also still gets some credibility from theory of "scum not afraid of getting busdriven").
It would be just very suicidal very early, unusual scumplay.

For the record, my assumption of Ren's alignment was (is) town after the catching up, largely because of this chain of events.

[Ojanen]

@MS:
The postulate that GR is scum with Ren assumes scum wouldn't mind confirming the scotmany in the process (unless you actually think all are scum?). In your calculations you deem the CD a very important powerrole, important enough that the demise of Ren is acceptable if scotmany is killed. Do you think there's contradiction in that, especially when in that scenario scum could have killed scotmany without killing Ren in the process if Ren hadn't selfvoted?

[Ojanen]

Regarding Adel (=Michel).
I think the case on him (written by ckd in 705) is reasonably strong. To be totally precise, the case gives me a townish feeling of honest scumhunting from ckd (so tell on ckd's alignment), and several of the points feel reasonable potential scumtells.
I recognize that I harbor more paranoia when it comes to Adel than most of anyone because of his aura in the site and he did give also townish signals to me, but I found some things genuinely questionable.

So FL quicklynch.
@People on that wagon (Michel too, if he has thoughts)

... and it needs to be a quicklynch so that the scum team won't have a chance to discover the optimal tactic to use from this point to defend FL.

Please give me your best guess of what Adel meant by this. FL-scum self-nominating to being new CD or what?
I feel like I'm missing something. Looked to me like doing the campaign at that point woud have risked several days of powerroles actually unless FL just wanted to out himself as confirmed scum out of nowhere.

Ha. Erased thought. I had a point here about the FL attack timing but I only just now realized that a Seraphim kill indicated scotmany town already in itself without the busdrive information.

I'm trying to think in which way the claimed tracking result is a significant signal. It seems a noticeable coincidence that the pattern went as it went, giving Goat more credibility.

@people inclined to lynch Adel/Michel, what do you think about the tracking result regards to scum motivation?

------

I'm not entirely sure what you are saying here. According to gamerule 27d, the kill was submitted somewhere between 0 and 24 hours before it was posted in the thread. Ren Hoek was placed at L-1 5.5 hours before the kill happened. Ren Hoek was placed at L-2 12 hours before the kill happened. He was placed at L-3 21 hours before the kill, and at L-4 23 hours before the kill. At the moment the kill was submitted, the bandwagon definately was on full speed, and quite likely at either L-2 or L-1. I hope this answers your concerns, if not, please explain more clearly what you mean.

I was saying that very early D1 wagons, even if large, don't usually lead quicklynch on this site, and your analysis was from the pov that Ren-scum would have in any case had to choose the kill in this moment. I was thinking wouldn't it be likelier for Ren-scum to want to wait if a less potentially catastrophic moment comes, if not, then make the 70% suicide play later. The wagon formed in a couple of very early days after all.

[Ojanen]

..but if FL was scum, would it have been plausible that he would have outed himself early by appointing someone new as CD if not under Adel's pressure? Seems at first glance like the cause of the loss of reliable powerroles would have been the quicklynch threat rather than the dormant ability. Unless I'm grossly underestimating the benefit of scum getting rid of confirmed creative director regards to losing one of their own.

[Ojanen]

Hmm. Despite of the eventuality, why is it good to attempt this speedlynch on day 1 rather than later? If it doesn't succeed and FL-scum would happen to be online after all, town would be screwed of several days of powerroles because of it.

[Ojanen]

Well regarding the timing, you know, I potentially just understood a bunch more about Adel's actions when I was writing 806. The bizarre attack on FaerieLord about not understanding/understanding the plan and harping about it. Connected to this quote I originally viewed as really strange:

trying to get FL lynched without pointing out to FL-scum how he could screw us was tricky. Trying to get it done occupied most of my brain cycles.
Finally I had to spell it all out to get it done. I identified a 6 hour window when FL is almost never online, and posted my detailed post at the begininng of that window.

Adel did the quicklynch campaign the same day Goatrevolt claimed busdriver, so that couldn't have been the cause of the earlier FaerieLord attack. The earlier attack was directly after Seraphim was killed. I hadn't thought that the Seraphim kill would indicate Scotmany town but it does, unless busdriver is scum, right? Adel brings some points against scotmany afterwards which doesn't quite fit though. Could be trying to stay non-transparent if FL was scum.

[Ojanen]

I find Sensfan's inaccuracy in referencing back to their creative team quicktopic baffling. Like he wants Adel to be his fallguy and he's trying to do the same.

Vote: FL

Why would you possibly be disappointed that we have 11 pages of game-related stuff to vote based on, rather than nothing?

He was upset that we were in a position of a fixed deadline, except we were essentially entering D1 with 11 pages of discussion. But, ummmm...that's a hell of a lot better than it would be to start with a 'random' phase.

After that continuously tying himself to Adel and implying qt use:

Especially since all the points raised against FL (by both Adel and myself) have been explained quite thoroughly.

Furthermore, the arguments against FL have been explained quite well by both myself and Adel - and don't forget the two of us can talk outside of this thread

I was the first person to go after FL.

Except you entirely dropped it until Adel brought it up again

First of all, I don't recall dropping it in here.
Secondly, and Adel can vouch for me here, I haven't dropped it at all in our QT.

When you look at the QT screenshot here, sensfan had zero initiative about FL before Adel brought it up and there was zero reasoning in the thread about it from sens.

Also:

Don't worry, Adel commented plenty about how he feels about the wagon forming on me.

This is "plenty": "I don't understand why people are so eager to go after your wagon and not FL's or Ren's I'm taking it as a town tell for you."

[Ojanen]

While reading, I jotted down some concerns about Vollkan. I see Goatrevolt has also had them. I largely agree with him about the vague feeling from Vollkan's play and the FL stances sequence feeling questionable.
His positions are often reasonable but somehow the overall body of stuff that he tends to bring up feel uncomfortably safe, I can't get a read out of most anything. Also, I get the feeling there's a tendency of me not being able to differentiate to what degree he finds stuff scummy he brings up.

This really comes back to the meta thing from earlier. When I am very suspicious of someone or, if scum, have found an easy target, then I am hyper-aggressive, otherwise it isn't at all uncommon for me not to be hyperactive. There have been a few points where I had strong suspicions - Ren early on and Budja now as the best examples - but so much of the scumminess in this particular game is wide open to dispute (I'm thinking mainly of the FL case and the Adel blowup)

So for example Budja is one of the best examples of strong suspicion of his in the game. Vollkan is disputing mainly the one point of FL change of opinion from him and yes, he's bringing up points about it.
But Budja was deemed moderately scummy in his recent PBPA and Vollkan hasn't voted for Budja.



The FaerieLord sequence:

I get why FL's theory is wrong, but I'm not sure I get the thrust of your accusation - unless you are saying that FL's earlier statement about understanding your plan is effectively contradicted by her statement that the scum chose Seraphim.

First stance, which I found slightly odd when the post he quoted from Adel said quite obviously the "unless" part of this post.
Continued with more exchange with Adel where he agrees with the scum-motivation of FL's surprise.

Do you think it is more probable that he didn't understand my plan, but innocently thought that he did?

Frankly, no but what's keeping me from switching my vote is whether FL can justify it. In my head, though, I can't think of a way that a person could understand your plan and not get the point of the busdriving. I mean, the whole point of the busdriver is to serve as a means of frustrating scumkills. It strikes me as extremely unlikely that a player could not realise that but support the plan nonetheless (surely, if a player didn't understand the inclusion of a busdriver, they would ask for explanation).

Resulting in this position.

and why would a player that understood my plan claim to be surprised by a weaker player getting killed?

A player who had not yet linked the two together upon seeing the kill. It took me a little while to join the dots and I did understand your plan so I'm seeing this as null.

Good point

But then agreeing with Budja.
I don't understand vollkan's thought process here. I thought he said just in previous post not realising the connection+supporting plan seems extremely unlikely, how is calling this joining dots changing the thing?
(Funnily enough, if I could understand the thought process, this little snippet I would see as vollkan's most townie post.)
Iso 13 calls Adel's point about referencing accounting team list "better", switching back to original pov.
Iso 14 deems FL case weakest of Ren, Sens, FL.

I always thought the case on FL was not that strong and easily explained by poor reading.

Again, I am still baffled as to what was so poor about the FL case

Clearly mixes up stuff here (same post wants Adel to comment on himself finding the case weak), next post says was thinking about Sens.
This is forst post during the quicklynch business, fails to comment on it yet.

That's the reason I asked Adel about my thoughts on the FL case at the end. To be clear, if it wasn't from my quoted thoughts, I just can't see what is so damning about the reaction to Seraph's death. Adel's point about high-risk is a legitimate one, but I don't think the case against FL is enough to justify a lynch.

I have trouble discerning from this whether he thinks votes are justified or not; strategic thing is legitimate but case not enough, ?
In 4 more posts hammers FL.

His accusation of Budja in nutshell:

What I am driving at here is that it seems to me that, when Adel presented an easy lynch strategy, you contradicted your earlier reasoning process, which suggests opportunism.

Which is a reasonable point; it came also to my mind, mostly for the reason that Budja deemed FL scummy in his vote post when he earlier had not. But his own confusing sequence of opinions I find at least as strange.

------

For what it's worth:

Everyone needs to chime in now and say if they think it was obvious that I was going to give Goat-Yos Bulletproof/Tracker.

During my read I thought it was fairly likely.

[Ojanen]

I agree that scum is more likely to shift arbitrarily, but that isn't what happened.
Look back at the sequence of posting. In essence, Budja said that it could arise from a failure to join the dots, which I agreed with. Adel chimes in by pointing out she had already connected the dots with her list. At that point in time, I said I thought Adel had made a better point. Then, when I was in the process of rereading (for my review on FL), I saw Budja's point in a different light; namely that, if a player wasn't going to be able to connect the dots initially (which I thought throughout to be reasonable from town), then it was also reasonably foreseeable that they wouldn't connect the dots from Adel's list.

I'm not denying that I changed my position, but that's a far cry from saying that I was "confusing my stance"

It does really seem that you were confusing your FL stance though:

Vollkan: You're baffled at why Budja calls the FL case poor, but you also called it weak. What gives?

It seems I got it confused with the Sens defence. If you recall, in my last post I had this exchange with Sens: [etc. etc.]

Hmm...Reading what you quote, I've confused myself. I vaguely remember that something made me think that your point wasn't as good as I said in 345, but I'm not sure where that thought went. I think it was subsumed in my point about Budja's failure to connect the dots, which I know I obviously then shifted on after your point. For that reason, my relative evaluation's reference to Budja is wrong. However, I did and do continue to think that the argument you are making still relies on an assumption that town FL would join the dots.

[Ojanen]

The more I think about the game, the more unsure about my reads I get.
Lately I've been thinking mostly about voting vollkan or Sensfan.
I'm having trouble distinguishing if SensFan's play has been only somewhat poor or legitimately scummy, but I'm starting to lean his way.
A snippet I haven't mentioned that I had in my notes regarding him, btw:

scotmany: Now that everything's revealed, mind sharing why you chose which group to do what?

Out of the six of them, I trusted Yos and Adel the most. Out of everyone, I trusted Yos the most to make a good decision with the busdriver. I'm glad that tracker ended up with Adel, because regardless of my suspicion of Sens, I'd rather him have the investigative role than Sens.

Don't you think SensScum would have grabbed the Tracker ability?

I thought bringing up this alibi out of the blue was an insincere feeling thing to say.
Anyway, with the untruths with the quicktopic and argumentational reaching re: FL and unwilliness to elaborate on case and lurking,

vote: SensFan

[Ojanen]

@vollkan: Why is your case against Budja stronger than the points you brought up against Sensfan earlier in your opinion?
Why aren't you voting?

[Ojanen]

Budja isn't scum. It makes no sense for BudjaScum to kill TDC. Even with my ability to choose new pairs it still doesn't make sense. Your Budja vote is a waste Ren.

It's a point for Budja, but wifom. I'm not sure we should make that simplistic strong assumptions.

@Michel
This elaborate suicide-or-alibi scheme.
I also thought that trying to kill scot was unexpected and somewhat strange.
But your theory of the thing, it just seems too far-fetched.
The general wagon and concentrated accusations of Ren really only happened after his reaction to Budja's and Yos' votes.
That was some 27 hours before the kill happened, and this was early day 1.It just seems unrealistically drastic for scum to pull out and coordinate this suicidal scheme so quick. I think there's overestimation of how inevitable his lynch was going to be, and I think the acts of self-voting and bickering with Sens about being a chicken in themselves made his lynch look much more certain - in your analysis parts of the plan already.

I think, coming out of the morning meeting and before the blowup, the whole trio of Seraphim-Ren-crywolf had suspicion on them.

(7) Ren Hoek-

Seraphim

, Budja, Yosarian2, Adel, vollkan, SensFan, Ren Hoek
(2)

Seraphim- FaerieLord, crywolf

(1)

crywolf- TDC

not voting: Nuwen, curiouskarmadog,

scotmany12, Goatrevolt

This pre-Seraphim-kill is interesting votecount and somewhat puzzles me, although you others won't have the certainty of my alignment. But I know there was town-to-town suspicion options.
Michel, how do you rationalise in your Ren-Goat conspiracy the fact that Ren Hoek made a dubious selfvote instead of letting Goat vote him and not looking so bad?

[Ojanen]

I am getting uncomfortable sure I have screwed up badly with my Yos case now by missing a bunch of posts when reading.

I'm really not sure what you mean here. You're saying you missed posts in reread and you no longer find Yos scummy?

[Ojanen]

The abstract part of the "is it scummy to change one's mind if circumstances don't change" conversation didn't seem terribly productive imo - changing one's opinion is far too wide an area to pin down either way, everything depends on context. I often change my opinion as town, have already done it this game. I also often look for certain alarming markers in other people's opinion changes, as is natural.
Adel re: Sens could be frustration and hate of Sens' lurking, could be confusion and was done during the "fuck mafia and you" episode. Can't read it as a tell either way. Budja re: FL seemed somewhat suspect. Budja re: Yos I haven't reviewed yet.

Thank you Ojanen, of actually thinking with me. I must admit that the theory is far fetched. OTOH, the whole situation looks quite surrealistic to me. Ren town would require a ridiculous amount of luck to accidentally make exactly the correct actions to prove himself "confirmed innocent". Any theory explaining what happened seems to be far fetched to me. If Goatrevolt is scum, the only reasons for the seraphim kill I can imagine are confirming scotmany or confirming Ren Hoek.

Regarding Ren's alibi, the most realistic seeming situation to me is that the kill was submitted before Ren was L-1 (in the possible time window Ren had anywhere from 3 to 7 votes out of 8, although 20 hours before he had already 5). Sloppy mafia thinking is possible too. Elaborate scheme I find least likely.
I find the busdriver's claimed targets plausible and natural. I'm slightly puzzled by mafia's choice. I find it a remarkable coincidence that Adel happened to target the busdriver. You know, if town, that this part of the chain of events was a coincidence. Yet if it wasn't your slot, something tells me you would also talk about tracking specifically Goat being far-fetched.

I join the chorus that really wants to hear thoughts from you on other stuff than the Seraphim kill.

[Ojanen]

Secondly, one of the main reasons that people are aware of the fact that Ren Hoek would have been lynched if the kill on scotmany had succeeded, was the fact that he pointed this outhimself immediately after the lynch, in post #323.
Please take a close look at that post. Suppose that Ren Hoek is a townie. He must have been mistaken about the vote count immediately prior to the kill, even though that vote count was posted 1 post above the kill. Then, he must have been aware that the correct kill would have caused him to become lynched, even though he has shown a general misunderstanding of the game mechanics in general. And finally, he mentioned this all without knowing that information that would become available later would prove him innocent for this very reason. I would call that extremely lucky.

But he did show a misunderstanding about game mechanics in that post. Talked about him not dying because of counting wrong although he didn't; apparently misunderstood the relevance of who the dying person is voting for.
MS, Adel had similar ideas, said he couldn't rule out that the Seraphim kill was a ruse and brought up this same Ren post (223) saying he never thought it was sincere. The 2 heads of your slot are the only ones, if I remember correctly, that have really been bringing up this breed of scheme speculation. Did Adel leave his future replacement notes/ideas to your quicktopic or did you zone in on this independently?

I agree with you that the busdriver's claimed targets are plausible and natural. I am also in no way trying to imply that Goatrevolt is scum.

I definitely interpreted you implying suspicion of Goat because you have been bringing up the scenario of him+Ren in concerned tones quite a lot.

[Ojanen]

@MichelSableheart: Do you find Sensfan's behaviour regarding falsely referencing back to your quicktopic suspicious?

To the willing to vote list: my top 2 considerations are Sens and vollkan.

I'll comment on the last pages more thoroughly in a few hours.

[Ojanen]

Yos: any thoughts based on the accounting team quicktopic, especially regarding your thoughts on Adel case initiator/reasoning behind vote on ckd?

[Ojanen]

To the willing to vote list: my top 2 considerations are Sens and vollkan.

Because?

I'm pretty sure I've already written about the matter. But I can elaborate.

The people I've mostly considered voting for today are Sensfan, you, Budja, Yos, Adel/MSH.
(The list is a process of elimination from first substracting Goat, scot and Ren [I'm not finding the suicidal Ren theory particularly likely]. Ckd and OMGL I've had a gut townread on since my catchup [has to do mostly with this certain initiative thing I feel to get reads and some aspects of the Adel case], although I'm planning to finecomb-evaluate the pair again soon.)

Yos
I don't have much aside from uncertainty on him. I have a vague, mildly scummy feeling from him but nothing I can really pin down.
His early day 1 contributions seemed somewhat absentminded, because he was bringing up things that seemed like he hadn't thought Adel's plan through before talking (like suggesting making PGO public).
I disagree with him about a bunch of things, some of the opinions around his Adel stance make me uneasy (like stating that Adel's f u Sens vote was probably a measured, reasonable action).

That's bad logic, CKD. IF you think Sensfan is town (and it sounds like you do, from the rest of your post), then Adel defending him has to be considered a pro-town act. Now, if Sensfan is scum, then Adel defending sensfan is definatly a big point against him. But I hate the "X defended Y, and Y was town, so X must have been scum!" argument you seem to be going for here. If a pro-town town person thinks someone else is town, they bloody well should defend them.

I thought this was simplistic from Yos. Defending someone pro-town is good for town, but there's also a scum motive for towncred there. Everything is based on nuances and honest seeming thought processes. Adel recently used his defence of a flipped townie as a reason why he's obviously town in another game where he was scum (Tofu mafia). It's not that simple.
@ Yos: why doesn't Adel's quicklynch on FL seem like a scum gambit to you? Does the action seem townish or null to you?

Budja.
His contribution has been lowish.
His vote on FL I see as nulltell because the wagon kinda had to be completed once Adel was drumming it so hard. The flip flop of finding FL scummy in that vote post is suspicious to an extent. Otherwise I have neutral read on him with some honest vibes.
I disagree though with what scot was saying about the extent to which TDC's kill makes him unlikely scum. There was momentum mainly on creative department lynches at the time of the kill. If two were broken during the day, new pairing tomorrow didn't seem unlikely.

Adel. I just don't know. Not feeling being able to read him. Contributed quite a lot and I think I can kinda see his line of thinking behind cases now. Got FL quicklynched on what I thought was iffy reasoning, defended Sens based on what I thought was iffy reasoning (also, simultaneously posting up that quicktopic which is a clear point against Sens and defending him strongly from getting lynched somehow doesn't jive that well together). MSH, although I disagree with him on many things, has at least been insistent with an unpopular case. Slight townievibe for that, unless scum is really in the corner.

Ha, I didn't get to the core of the original question yet except with process of elimination stuff.
Second post coming in a bit; gotta go for now.

[Ojanen]

Eh? What was wrong with that suggestion? If we had done that, we might have had the scum get re-directed into the PGO when the scum tried to kill scot on day 1.

How can you claim Adel's plan is a big townish point for him if you still haven't thought it true? PGO identified fails to protect creative teams, fails to protect tracker partner. Scum would never have tried to kill scot if PGO was public but Adel's plan made sure it was futile too.

I disagree with him about a bunch of things, some of the opinions around his Adel stance make me uneasy (like stating that Adel's f u Sens vote was probably a measured, reasonable action).

I don't know if it was measured or thought through. It was a reasonable vote, though, and it made sense to me.

Did also Adel's previous stance of Sens-town make sense to you?

Well, obviously. But people get so caught up in WIFOM thinking they forget the obvious. The truth is, if someone votes scum, that's a pro-town tell, and if someone defends town, that's also a pro-town tell.

Without looking somewhat more thoroughly at the manner of those actions they are crude beyond use as tells imo.

[Ojanen]

How can you claim Adel's plan is a big townish point for him if you still haven't thought it

true

?

Um, no. Adel's plan was a better pro-town plan then any that had been suggested up to that point.
The fact that I then took that and brainstormed some other options is irrelevent to the fact that Adel's plan was quite reasonable at the time.

PGO identified fails to protect creative teams, fails to protect tracker partner. Scum would never have tried to kill scot if PGO was public but Adel's plan made sure it was futile too.

Well, no, because under my plan, the bus driver could also have protected both Scot and the tracker. But that's not really important now anyway.
I don't really get what you're arguing, anyway. People were attacking Adel on the grounds that all the game-theory-stuff he was doing early day 1 were scummy, and that's just bunk; it was quite pro-town.

This was a weird weird response until I noticed I spelled true where I meant through in the bolded part of the original question. Haven't got native English, I sometimes miscommunicate.
Anyway, to the end: I mentioned you seemed absentminded in the first choosing abilities phase and gave an example with the PGO.
You asked what was wrong with it.
I explained, and misspelled through. (I maintain my conception of you not having thought the plan through. Busdriver couldn't have protected tracker unless tracker was public too in your suggestion. Plus busdriver scum is really bad.)
That's what this tangent was about. I'm not arguing at all that Adel's early game theory stuff was scummy.

Well, obviously. But people get so caught up in WIFOM thinking they forget the obvious. The truth is, if someone votes scum, that's a pro-town tell, and if someone defends town, that's also a pro-town tell.

Without looking somewhat more thoroughly at the manner of those actions they are crude beyond use as tells imo.

I don't think that's true. I think, on some level, if someone acts in a way that increses the chance of a town win, it raises their odds of being town, at least a little, and if someone acts in a way that increases the chances of a scum win, it increases their chances of being scum, at least a little. "Tells" isn't really a word I would use for that, but it's true nonetheless.
You have to actually look at the effect of people's actions, not just guess at their motives.

I think talking about things on a super general level isn't terribly fruitful.
In practice, and relevantly to our situation at hand, when we look at how people defend and attack each other, there exist clear signs of alarm even when the attack is against scum or defence for a townie. A strange late-wagon change of mind or a tentative suspicion implying fencesit when asked for opinion about someone who later flips scum are almost clichés. Or when someone doesn't make sense in why they strongly defend another player, like this:

Did also Adel's previous stance of Sens-town make sense to you?

I don't fully understand it, no.

MSH, however, is increasingly giving me kinda honest vibes.
---

I wasn't crazy about OMGL's vote on Sens.

I guess I'll mention here that despite having gotten townish vibes from his degree of initiative, I felt iffy when he said this in accounting quicktopic:

I think now is a good time for the entire accounting department to come together in lynching Yos.

Because a good time for neglecting independent thought for group think is about never.
---

I still need to write up stuff about sens and vollkan in my answer to vollkan. I'll try to get to it soon.

[Ojanen]

@OGML: I guess I can kinda see where you're coming from with that.

[Ojanen]

@Ojanen: Going to get around to answering the heart of my question?

Been trying to, other stuff always came up in the thread and now I'm unfortunately having a really busy patch of time until next week. For the time being, you can reference my iso 9 and 12 for Sens, 10 for you. I don't have much of a case against laid out against you, it's more behavioral tendencies/ vibes I associate to a scum stereotype described in first few paragraphs of iso 10 and process of elimination as described in my earlier post detailing other players.
I'll elaborate and answer other questions when I'm back.

V/LA until Monday.

[Ojanen]

I'm back.

vote: cop

[Ojanen]

Sensfan hasn't been very active, posting nothing relevant at all in the last 2 weeks. IMO, there wasn't really anything wrong with his attack on FaerieLord, but he has been evasive when answering questions about it. I reluctantly could see him lynched today for being a lurker, but I don't want to give up a powerrole each day or force scotmany to use his repairing ability relatively early. I really prefer other lynchtargets.

This was on Sunday 9th; you hammered Sensfan next week Saturday. Was one more week of lurking the thing that changed your mind?

[Ojanen]

Arrested seems about right. I dunno. I don't really have motivation to analyze stuff further before we find out who's the known scum. It's a big piece of the puzzle.

[Ojanen]

One thing to MSH though:
What is your current stance on Ren?

[Ojanen]

Yos, your case on CKD is basically limited to that Adel/MSH is obvtown to you, the bandwagon of OMGL/ckd/Ren was terrible and there must be scum in it.

There are 3 people really attacking Adel here; OGML, Ren, and CKD. I think OGML's actions, his agressivness and scumhunting, seem townish to me, and in line with his meta. However, this Adel wagon is so clearly terrible that I would have trouble beliving it's not pushed by scum right now.
I'm not at all convicned by CKD's case against Adel; more to the point, if I'm right and Adel is town, the timing of CKD's case, coming after OGML got the wagon moving, makes me think he's likely scum here.

Really? What if I told you in the QT thread, I was the one that got the Adel wagon "moving"? What if it was Ren? Have a feeling you would be pushing us as scum but providing different reasons.

Eh, I doubt it. It's pretty clear OMGL game into the game with a new perspective that was quite different from anyone else's, and that he came to different conclusions that were different; before OGML replaced in, I really think everyone thought Adel was town. I do think oppertunistic scum would take advantage of, and hide behind, an agressive player like OGML if he's wrong.

(shrug) It depends. If you had some really good argument in the QT (hopefully one better then the really weak case you posted in thread), and posted that before OMGL replaced into the game, then that would likely change my opinion of you.
Of course, then I would wonder why you were attacking Adel in the quicktopic and not in thread, and letting someone else take the lead in thread.

After the quicktopic was posted and you saw that ckd had indeed been the first one to express doubt against Adel, before OGML posted content, you just went

Anyway, CKD's whole argument there that started the case on Adel seemed to be about the FL quicklynch, right? Mmm....I donno, it made sense to me at the time, and I'm having trouble seeing that as a scum gabit on Adel's part.

which seemed a vague dismission of evidence opposing your case.
Also, I'm puzzled if you really studied the timeline carefully. Ckd posted concerns about the FL quicklynch on sunday 26 to quicktopic and game thread, and questioned Adel about taking tracker role on Saturday 25, and OGML bursted in with content and Adel suspicion on Monday 27.

Otherwise your case has just seemed like potshots at ckd to see if something sticks, like for example why he specifically didn't question Ren's statement that there was a case against Yos in our quicktopic. I don't see why that is incriminating specifically against ckd (IRC he's one of the gang finding Ren quite cleared through the Seraphim kill) and you're not asking the same thing from, for instance, vollkan.

I'm not really getting your case.

[Ojanen]

One thing to MSH though:
What is your current stance on Ren?

Assuming that Goat did indeed find scum: Much more likely town, but not confirmed.

Wait. I'm getting really confused on whether Goat was scummy in your opinion and how much Ren's alignment is dependent on his in your opinion.

I agree with you that the busdriver's claimed targets are plausible and natural. I am also in no way trying to imply that Goatrevolt is scum.

I definitely interpreted you implying suspicion of Goat because you have been bringing up the scenario of him+Ren in concerned tones quite a lot.

AFAIK, I have only brought it up either when asked for clarification or when people were arguing against that specific part of my argument.

[Ojanen]

Ojanen: I guess I'm having a little trouble explaining this. Take a step back, and look at the whole game, not just individual players. Consider how the bandwagons have moved, consider how players have joined different factions, consider how it is all going. Also consider that we haven't lynched scum yet, despite having lots of good information (2 confirmed innocents, for one), and that the main thrust for today again seems to be towords mike and me, two players I think are obviosuly pro-town.
When I examime the whole game, when I FEEL the game as a whole, I can tell that the town is being manipulated by scum. Specfically, that faction I was talking about, the accounting faction,, led by OGML, Ren, and CKD, is leading the town and consistnatly pushing in anti-town directions, and I doubt it's a coincidence. I am sure that there is scum there, and I'm almost sure it's CKD.

I understand your viewpoint. I've been thinking and wondering about factions and group dynamics as a whole myself and a few things puzzle me. The point where we don't meet at all is thinking you and MSH obvtown (actually, I think you and Michel are quite alone of that opinion). Are the "anti-town directions" you refer to suspicion of you and Michel?

[Ojanen]

Perhaps, except Adel intentionally ran him up during a time she knew FL was unlikely to be online, something he apparently took the time to figure out, and the hammer happened before FL did get back to the thread.

This is a minor thing but I actually took once the time to check whether that window was true. It's a shame I can't find my exact notes anymore and the search doesn't work. Looking from my timezone, Adel started the quicklynch attack Sat Jul 25, 2009 9:24 pm (half an hour after which FL actually happened to visit the thread). As far as I remember, in my check I found FL almost never posts between 1 am and 7 am but relatively often stays up until 11pm and sometimes until midnight. Saturdays were no exception to this. A minor thing, but since you brought it up I can as well mention it.

[Ojanen]

I felt Ren was scum at that time because I saw 2 scenario's, both relatively likely, in which Ren was scum. In one of these scenario's, Goat was scum. This did not imply that Goat was scum (after all, the Goat town scenario was also a good possibility), but I believed it was a possibility. Goat almost certainly being town removes half the basis of my suspicion of Ren. The other half of my suspicion is reason enough to still not consider him confirmed, but my suspicions have lessened enormously.

Michel, I'll note that you aren't making sense for me in this, in a scummy way, because of the elaborateness of those scenarios you spinned and the inconsistency here. You have now said that
-you thought there were too relatively likely scenarios, in one of which Goat was scum and in both of which Ren was scum (although the one with both scum you earlier )
-you have said you do in no way mean to imply Goat is scum
-but because Goat seems definite town even to you now, your suspicions of Ren have lessened enormously.

So Ren scum doesn't imply Goat scum, but Goat town implies Ren town. That doesn't make sense.

I haven't checked yet vollkan's relation to MSH/Yos thoroughly, but from skim, especially in the accouting quicktopic, so far Adel seems the better bet. There's one thing that really really makes me certain there must be scum in MSH/Yos pair that's tied to vollkan: in the surge of suspecting Adel/Yos in our qt he doesn't go with it. There is this common bonding made there over that suspicion, group spirit of people mutually thinking they're town, and it would be incredibly attractive for scum to embrace the gang if the targets where town. My intuition strongly says so because I haven't fully been together with them (switched from my initial stronger suspicion of Adel to Sens+vollkan) and I have kind of been secretly longing to give in to be even more a part of the team than now. If I was scum and the suspicion targets were town, I would embrace the group's suspicions from the bottom of my heart, and I don't think that's just a personality trait of mine.
The only thing that puzzles me is why the hell did a scumteam consisting of players of the caliber of vollkan+Adel/Yos target scotmany. But the same question results already from vollkan being scum, so it doesn't change much.

The situation with one of them having the cop ability is frustrating.
I'm having trouble pinning down a third scum. I'm of the school of thought that it's really less likely that they're both scum.

@scot: why do you think I'm scum?

[Ojanen]

I enjoyed the game.
Great job, scum. I was totally outplayed in this game.
Goat, wow!

[Ojanen]

I liked the idea of the game. The execution of the modding seemed very good. The ability choosing seemed like a fun concept. On balance issues I have very little insight.
Thank you, Korts.

[Ojanen]

I'm not too happy with my own play. I replaced into a relatively difficult spot, but I don't feel I did much to help. What could I have done better? In particular, could I have convinced the rest of the town to rethink the "confirmed innocents"?

I'm not too happy with my own play either, I didn't help at all. But this was a useful game to be town in. Thought-provoking. Hopefully it'll slightly recalibrate my feel for which thoughts coming to me to ignore and especially which not.
I always did agree something was strange with the Seraphim kill, but didn't come close to actually evaluating it from the correct angle. Didn't truly rethink from Goat's boots. I'm not sure how you could have gotten people to listen. Perhaps first impression post could have been more concisely/clearly written, but honestly I think people wanted the confirmed to be confirmed. Your insistence level was pretty good.