Wheel of Time Mafia: Rip in the Pattern (GAME OVER)

[Goatrevolt]

I'm going to start reading the game tonight. I probably won't get caught up immediately, though, as this game looks long and complicated. Any deadlines or special information I need to know before I start my read?

[Goatrevolt]

I'm going to start reading the game tonight. I probably won't get caught up immediately, though, as this game looks long and complicated. Any deadlines or special information I need to know before I start my read?

Welcome.

You need to tell us where you slept last night--everyone but you two replacements have claimed. The mod should have told you in your introductory PM.

Isacc has claimed Serial Killer who killed two townies last night. Albert claimed Aes Sedai. Kairyuu claimed "motivator" or a double-power enabler. If your role has any dependence on the location you sleep, you'll want to tell the mod your future sleeping location before the lynch happens today. Don't dawdle!

I don't know where I slept last night. The mod just gave me a role PM, no other information. I'll ask.

I ask that nobody gets lynched before I'm caught up. I'd like to make an educated selection on my room tonight, and I can't think of any reason to rush into a lynch before I have a chance to figure out what's going on.

[Goatrevolt]

Alright, I got a response. I was at the barn last night (default).

[Goatrevolt]

I guess, but I don't really understand the delay..any information he gives can be given tomorrow.

Unless I'm dead. There's more than just info as well. I'd prefer to have some understanding of where I should be staying tonight, etc.

Just finished reading page 13. I'm going to go grab some dinner and then continue. I'm not taking any notes, so I should be caught up by tonight or tomorrow.

[Goatrevolt]

Is that rolefishing, flay?

[Goatrevolt]

I'm caught up.

Sajin: You're fishing for info on whether or not MoS is AS. Earlier in the game you were trying to fish for whether or not ABR had broken AS oaths. Why are you so interested in whether people are AS or not? Seems scummy, no?

MoS: You mentioned at some point you believed Flay was a SK. With Isacc dead and SK, how does that affect your opinion of Flay?

Flay: Explain to me how lynching a jester is a pro-town action. You arriving at the conclusion that he's a jester is suspect enough, but I can't begin to fathom how lynching him would ever benefit the town.

Armlx: You're floating through the game throwing your support behind popular wagons. Who are your top 3 suspects now, and why?

Kairyuu: Why do you keep announcing in thread who you plan on motivating? It gives off the distinct impression that you are more concerned with confirming yourself and your role than you are with using your role to the benefit of the town. Can you explain your "motivation" here?

Kison: Can you explain your vote?

[Goatrevolt]

Goat: Flay, Slicey maybe, rando lurker would be my top 3. I've got some good town reads on people, but that's about it.

Reasoning on those 2?

[Goatrevolt]

Seriously? I don't mind if people suspect me, but this tendency to vote without a reason is seriously irritating.

Was this directed at me? I'm not voting you.

WHY do people think lynching a Jester is "scum" or "third-party" behavior? Jesters distract from lynching scum. Day One especially, eliminating one would be useful for the rest of the game. If you think there is a Jester in a game, when IS the right time to kill them? The Mafia/SKs aren't going to do it! We've seen no evidence yet of a vigilante, and in any case, they'd have to believe my case to use up their action (and be able to kill third-party roles, if they're Aes Sedai).

I've backed off from thinking SpyreX is a Jester (though I haven't ruled it out), but I really cannot fathom what people think I SHOULD have done with that theory/knowledge. Everyone suspecting me on that score (and that seems to be the primary reason, for those giving reasons at all) should answer this immediately.

Can the town win while a jester is still alive? I was working under that impression, but it just hit me that I'm probably wrong about that.

If the town needs a jester dead to win, then I actually agree day 1 is a good time to get rid of one. If not, then I can't see any convincing reason to waste a lynch on one.

Still, how common are jesters? Common enough to be a legitimate consideration, or no?

[Goatrevolt]

Seriously? I don't mind if people suspect me, but this tendency to vote without a reason is seriously irritating.

Was this directed at me? I'm not voting you.

Yes. You're not voting me, but you're calling me out. So I'm trying to respond to my attackers as much as possible.

Uh, what? That doesn't address the situation at all. You called me out for a reasonless vote. I didn't vote. Why not just say "I was mistaken" or "that wasn't addressed to you"? Responding to your attackers is all well and good, but why respond with something that makes no sense?

No, the town does not lose if a Jester lives to the end of the game (actually the Jester usually loses at that point, hence SpyreX' "I shouldn't live to endgame in any case" being part of my case. He has ASKED to be killed!

Ok. I can see how you could arrive at Jester as a possibility.

However, if the town can win with a jester still alive, then why would you ever want to lynch one? The "distraction" argument is weak. He'd only be a distraction if people allow him to be one, which certainly doesn't need to be the case at all.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm in favor of Mr. Flay claiming.

[Goatrevolt]

Windmill. Catching back up tonight.

[Goatrevolt]

So he's claiming neutral, non-pro-town, gambler-pimp-roleblocker, with night actions that don't add up and a win condition he has yet to actually explain?

Sounds plausible to me. I generally toss one of those into every game I design.

DUDE, you too?!?!?

[Goatrevolt]

Let him claim it in the morning. If he does have a pro-town reason for not claiming it we benefit from not outing it. If he doesn't have a pro-town reason, we'll find out tomorrow anyway. There's no benefit in forcing it out now.

[Goatrevolt]

As much as I'd love to be a friend of scum, I'm going to have to go for the smart person label instead.

I don't see the need for MBL to give out his information right now. I would guess he does have a pro-town reason for wishing to avoid claiming, because I fail to see the benefit he gets as scum by making a fuss about it when he could simply lie about his sleeping location. If he does have a pro-town reason, we fail by outing it now.

I don't see sleeping location claims directly leading to scum anytime soon. So I don't understand the importance of why this must be outed now. What's going to happen beyond us saying, "Ok, cool, that's where you slept" and moving on?

Vote Benmage

Seriously? He doesn't claim his sleeping location and you want a full claim? Preposterous. Do you think his refusal to claim sleeping locations makes him likely to be scum?

[Goatrevolt]

Sorry for basically disappearing. I'm busy today but will hopefully have a chance to catch up tonight/early tomorrow.

[Goatrevolt]

Windmill.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm really behind right now and struggling to keep up. I really can't tell you whether or not the partial mass claim is a good idea until I've caught up and understand what even prompted it.

Since we're already midway through claiming, though, I'm not going to oppose it. Is this strictly an AS/not AS claim?

[Goatrevolt]

I am Aes Sedia

Arlmx, I choose you.

[Goatrevolt]

Also, why do you STILL refuse to claim when, of 16 living players, there are only 2 we don't know the roles of? You are refusing to help the town. I don't like it.

Knowing if someone is AS or not =/= knowing their role.

Kairyuu: Explain how we catch all the remaining scum (or several, as later clarified) from a mass claim?

[Goatrevolt]

Claiming roles is unnecessary.

1. Yes/no (done)
2. Targets
3. Partners
4. Detections

And if there are any discrepancies in the above, then we get those specific players to full claim.

As for color, I really don't know whether that should be claimed along with targets/partners or not. I'm thinking not.

[Goatrevolt]

@Goat: Why is it unnecessary? Please explain to me why I'm wrong. If you can't then your statement is just as baseless as MoS' was. If you're going to oppose something that has logic backing it up, then you need to provide an actual counter, rather than just telling me I'm wrong.

Let's assume you're correct and we catch scum based on the logic puzzle. We are going to lynch that scum today. We don't need to also out who the best targets to kill off are.

[Goatrevolt]

Ohh, and before I forget:

@Ben, ABR, Goat:

If I missed it: Night 2 sleeping locations.

Windmill. Pretty sure I've been there every night since I replaced in.

Goat:

Assuming the doubling effect of AS AND the fact that a DOC just came out, thats not really gonna fly.

Explain? Not sure how that debunks my logic.

However, I think we're up to 16 AS total. Which means something FUNNY is going on. Aside from 8*2 I can see ONE other solution that makes sense. But, for either of those at minimum the colors need to be known - and if the colors are known...

How many colors of AS are there? 8? Are we looking at 2 of each as the likely story here?

[Goatrevolt]

There's only 8 colors if you include Black Ajah. Thats part of the issue here.

So we get everyone to color claim and see who claims black

[Goatrevolt]

I'm partnered with KoC as he revealed earlier.

[Goatrevolt]

I need to check something on my partner, then I will answer whether or not I find him trustworthy.

[Goatrevolt]

KoC: Does your heal use the one power?

[Goatrevolt]

KoC: Does your heal use the one power?

Yes.

Then I think you're lying when you say you protected me last night, because it's not on my detect Saidar.

Unvote, Vote KoC

[Goatrevolt]

Who was keeping twilight 4 sleep locations together so I can look at them in iso, or if someone can repost those sleeping barn twilight 4.

I ask this, because mine and KoC detections do not match up. I want to essentially get information from the person KoC claims to have detected targeting the windmill...have them comfoward with who they targeted. (Maybe if possible what they did)

How did KoC's action not show up... Maybe i overread. KoC doc'd Goat right? Slept barn...was Goat with me at the windmill?

(Still needs to view twilight 4 locations again so I don't have to ask these lookupable questions)

Yeah, we were both at Windmill. My detect Saidar didn't have anyone targeting the windmill, thus it looked like KoC was lying about targeting me.

Kinetic sent me a corrected twilight 4 detect that included 1 from the barn to the mill, which would match KoC's claimed actions and throws my KoC is obviously lying scum theory down the trash.

In addition, I have found another puzzle that will reveal ANOTHER scum.

MacavityLock, Setael (claiming for Faraday, not himself), TSS, and Goatrevolt need to reveal the locations of their twilight 3 targets.

There is more to the story, but I cannot explain further until those claims have been made (in any order).

River.

Incidentally, I'm now almost certain Goat is also scum, possibly JVW's partner. Deliberate fake-detect from scum is obvious, Goat.

Yes, clearly I'm deliberately declaring a fake detect that anyone who slept at Windmill could easily prove false . Benmage can back up my assertion that the original detect Saidar didn't have your targeting of me in it at all.

My original detect Saidar from Windmill was: 2 to the barn. I got a PM from Kinetic correcting it to: 2 to the barn, 1 from the barn.

Unvote

I'm finding KoC more scummy than JVW, but I'll unvote pending MoS' info.

[Goatrevolt]

Yosarian/JVW: Did the two of you ever claim your roles to each other or explain night actions to each other?

[Goatrevolt]

Actually, never mind that. Got ahead of myself.

Vote JVW

[Goatrevolt]

By the way, a JVW/Mora/ABR scumteam would make a lot of sense, since ABR claims to have blocked Mora and JVW the last two nights, and he claimed to block Isacc, who was immune to the one power. Combine that with the evidence against JVW and ABR's dodginess when it comes to breaking the three oaths, and it's certainly something worth thinking about.

Didn't ABR claim his roleblock on Isacc prior to Isacc claiming immunity to the OP?

[Goatrevolt]

I was actually a fan of the "let's claim targets before we claim sleeping locations" plan.

I like this plan as well. It will force scum into claim their actual target, rather than giving them a set of options among everyone who was at the same location as their target.

[Goatrevolt]

And by the way, aren't all you magic fools supposed to be claiming

tonight's

targets, not previous nights' targets?

No.

I thought the idea was for us

tomorrow

to first claim our targets and then later claim locations to keep people from tailoring their target claims to the location claims.

I have no idea why people are claiming stuff now.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm changing to koc for a few reasons.

1) putting jvw at -1 when there's so much to claim or at least discuss claiming before someone is lynched. I realize we can talk about it during twilight, but I still think that -1 vote was hasty and scummy, especially wig shadow votes and the like so rampant.

2) looking back, I think koc immediately voting jvw is scummier than jvw not going after koc. Scum know alignments and therefore see very quickly who they should be going after. Town is more likely to hesitate, in this case because they're not sure of the info or it's not so cut and dry that it's either them or someone else.

Maybe that's not very clear, but the bottom line is that if jvw were scum I think he would have gone for koc's throat. Kind of like koc went for jvw's throat.

unvote, vote: KoC

The exact opposite is generally true. Scum are not interested in trading themselves 1-1. I find KoC going after JVW as "obvious scum" to be much more of a town play than JVW not even bothering to do anything about KoC.

[Goatrevolt]

Having trouble making a proper vote? Worried about something?

[Goatrevolt]

KoC: Can you verify that your predecessor submitted an action Twilight 1? Did you get any notification of a roleblock?

[Goatrevolt]

Unvote

I want to verify that neither of the two were roleblocked and that KoC can confirm submitting an ability before carrying through with this. If all that checks out, I'll vote JVW again.

[Goatrevolt]

My proposal is that I research the River and we require KoC to sleep there. Everyone else stay at one of the other three locations, which sajin will research.

If not enough people want to just know how many antitown players we have, we could instead have sajin research one person as well (one person alone stays at the windmill or somewhere that sajin will search.

Opinions?

Please no one else vote JVW until this is decided, as once the lynch is reached it will be too late to orchestrate where everyone sleeps.

This isn't a good plan. KoC's alignment is tied to JVW's, so testing him alone would be kind of a waste if we plan to lynch JVW anyway.

I think testing people individually is a weak use of the role. I'd much rather test groups of roughly 3 players. It will serve much more useful in the long run. It won't tell us immediately what someone's alignment is, but it'll be far more effective in clearing people a few days down the line.

[Goatrevolt]

I'd rather use the note givers in a more productive fashion. Knowing how many scum are left is inferior to attempting to pinpoint those scum.

[Goatrevolt]

SK was roleblocked N1.

There should be an additional xxx->Stables in Setael's detects detecting SK's night action that is not there.

I believe this nearly guarantees that Yos or ABR is scum--and it's very possible SK died where ABR claimed to target Isacc.

I think the biggest problem with this theory is that we have no clue if SK tried to gentle SpyreX or not. Also, do players who get killed show up on the detect Saidar? Does anyone partnered to a dead AS know their actions and whether it appeared on the detections the night they died?

This theory relies too heavily on conjecture.

[Goatrevolt]

I do believe that Spyre should be gentled tonight.

Regardless, in the extraordinarily unlikely event that SK didn't gentle, he would have attempted to Bond Warder as Benmage has, and would have shown up on Saidar.

SK was roleblocked, with 98% certainty, unless someone has an otherwise unexplained Saidar usage for him. Which we don't.

Do we know where he slept? Your argument is that there is no record of him using saidar directed at SpyreX, not that there is no record of him using saidar at all.

Also, could Mufasa RB the first night? This is also a possibility.

Finally, dead players actions might not show up on the detect saidar depending on the timestamping of those actions.

There are far too many unknowns here.

[Goatrevolt]

And why

wouldn't

scum RB a claimed Aes Sedai D1? Who better to block? Albert claims to have roleblocked either Kairyuu or Isacc, an issue he never cleared up fully. Nor did he explain why he blocked them. My guess is, he actually blocked ShadowKnight, who was likely at the Blacksmith with Isacc/Kairyuu.

Just looking at the manner in which ABR claimed to have blocked Isacc/Kairyuu will show you that this isn't true. ABR claimed to have blocked Isacc before Isacc revealed he was immune to the one power (to my recollection). That would be an extremely stupid play to make if he was lying.

#2 option: Yos blocked SK and claims he didn't get orders in.

This is possible, but we just need to check the saidar results where Yos slept to easily prove/disprove this.

Here's a thought. We're missing the detect saidar for JVW's claimed action of targeting SK. We're missing SK's detect saidar results from that same night. Coincidence? Possibly not.

[Goatrevolt]

Here's a thought. We're missing the detect saidar for JVW's claimed action of targeting SK. We're missing SK's detect saidar results from that same night. Coincidence? Possibly not.

To go along with this, perhaps Isacc had an aura of nullification or something like that. Him killing SK both prevented us from detecting SK's action as well as prevented us from detecting JVW's targeting of SK.

That is a far simpler explanation than the idea that both a roleblocker is lying about targeting SK and a doctor is lying about targeting SK.

[Goatrevolt]

Meh. Two actions don't show up related to the same player. Occam's razor. What's more likely here:

1. Two players lied about their targets for N1 after it was made clear that lying about your targets would get you killed based on the detect saidar pattern. It just so happens that both lied about targets involve the exact same player day 1, a player who was killed by a SK who had the capability to kill multiple players and whose role we do not know at all.

or

2. Either the kill took place in an earlier phase than the other actions being taken (SK using an ability, JVW protecting him) thus causing them to not occur and not show up on the detections, or Isacc had some sort of ability that "black holes" OP usage.

The 2nd one seems far more likely. Why would a doctor fake claim a protection on someone who died when the purpose of people claiming was to compare it to the detect saidar results? Wouldn't that be roughly the worst fake claim of all time? Especially if JVW didn't actually use an ability (as the detect saidar would suggest)...why would he claim to have used an ability, and not only any ability, but a doc protect on a target who died...? Why would a roleblocker fake claim a roleblock on someone who killed 3 people successfully that night?

This is far too big of a coincidence to be simply that, a coincidence. It doesn't make sense for any of these players to be lying about whether or not they targeted SK, so the likely answer is that they aren't.

[Goatrevolt]

I would guess Mr. Flay killed KoC. We haven't seen incineration as a kill since.

I think the most likely explanation is simply that Isacc had the ability to kill in an earlier phase than when other abilities went off. Maybe this was a 1-time use power or something he could only do once every night. He had the ability to kill twice (three times with motivation). It wouldn't be crazy to suggest that his second kill was a special power.

I mean, can you seriously tell me that my above paragraph is less likely than JVW, a doctor, lying about targeting a player who died that same night, when the detect saidar shows him doing nothing? And in addition, ABR, a roleblocker lying about targeting a claimed SK who got off 3 kills, but was later shown to be OP immune? No way.

[Goatrevolt]

Kai said he only motivates daybreak actions. This was shown when he claimed to of motivated ABR and got nothing changed. This was than believed that all killing actions are daybreak actions.

Maybe Isacc had a "twilight or earlier" kill and a regular killing ability that was a daybreak kill.

Isacc killing someone before actions could be done by or done to them is far more likely than this far-fetched "X people are lying in ridiculous fashions all regarding the same player night 1" idea.

[Goatrevolt]

Isacc killing someone before actions could be done by or done to them is far more likely than this far-fetched "X people are lying in ridiculous fashions all regarding the same player night 1" idea.

So Goat, let's be perfectly clear here. You're saying:

1) JVW is NOT lying about protecting SK. He's a real doctor whose power not only failed, but wasn't detected. JVW should not be lynched.

2) If one of ABR/Yos is a scum roleblocker (the most likely scum role of all the AS roles we've heard), they are not likely to lie about their twilight action roleblocks.

and 3) Isacc was responsible for all three N1 kills, two of them at daybreak (which allowed KoC to use his power) and one at Twilight which resulted in

ABR's twilight action on Isacc being detected

and

JVW's twilight action on SK not being detected?

Can a roleblocker confirm that RB is a twilight activity?

Can a Yellow confirm that Protect is a daybreak activity?

Let me break this down.

1. JVW would have no motivation to claim a doc protect that wasn't on the detect Saidar. Furthermore, if he did want to claim a doc protect that wasn't on the detect Saidar, what motivation would he have to claim one on a player who died that same night?

2. Yosarian can easily be verified by the detect saidar whether he targeted SK or not. He claimed to submit no action, and we can easily verify the truth of that. That leaves ABR. ABR claimed to have roleblocked Isacc, despite Isacc still getting off kills, and only later did Isacc reveal he was immune to the one power. That is a foolish and stupid claim for ABR to make if he is lying.

3. Isacc was responsible for 3 kills is pretty obvious. Three players were dismembered, and we have not seen that kill method since. Who made the other dismemberment kills if not Isacc?

Your bolded sections are irrelevant. I'm saying JVW and SK's actions didn't show up on the detect saidar because SK was dead before they could actually submit those actions. JVW couldn't doc protect a target that was already dead, thus he didn't have an action. SK couldn't gentle SpyreX if he was already dead by the time the Gentling action would take place...so his action doesn't show up on the results. ABR blocking Isacc would still show up, because Isacc is still alive at this point and thus ABR has a legitimate target, even if it doesn't succeed.

To my knowledge Gentling is a daybreak action. I think Kinetic said at some point that unless otherwise specified, it's daybreak. If protecting is also a daybreak action, then Isacc making a twilight kill on SK and JVW's daybreak protect and SK's daybreak gentle not actually occurring because they would occur after SK is already dead would be by far the most likely explanation.

What is more likely: Numerous players lying for absolutely no discernible reason all regarding the exact same event, or the simple and plausible explanation that Isacc had a twilight kill?

Anyway, a doctor needs to confirm whether or not the protection is a twilight or daybreak action to clear this up. If it's a daybreak action, then I am almost certainly correct about Isacc.

[Goatrevolt]

Vote: JVW

I think any use this discussion had has petered out now. Back to lynching the scum.

Is your doc protect a daybreak or twilight action?

Is there any reason people continue to ignore my posts? Does anyone really care to figure out whether or not KoC/JVW is actually a 1-1 or are we just on auto-pilot now?

[Goatrevolt]

It's not stated in my PM whether or not it's Daybreak or Twilight.

Couple of notes. One, I would like to remind everyone, as I have posted before, that any ability which does not explicitly state it is a

Twilight

or

Rapid

active ability is a Daybreak ability. A vast majority of all abilities are daybreak abilities.

Ok, so that means it is a daybreak action.

What this means is: JVW submitted a daybreak action on SK. SK tried to use the daybreak action of gentling on SpyreX.

Neither showed up on the detect saidar

. We can conclude that the simplest and most likely explanation is that

Isacc killed SK during the twilight phase, thus preventing these actions from occurring because SK was already dead when they would have gone off

.

Or, simply, JVW + KoC is not the 1 for 1 we thought it was. JVW is almost certainly not lying about targeting SK, and SK makes sense as a doc protect day 1. I think we should start looking elsewhere.

I still think ABR was too sketchy around the roleblock N1 issue. Goat, independent of the JVW issue, can you please assess ABR's behavior surrounding his claimed N1 roleblock? I don't know that you've looked into it fully--the timing doesn't support your assessment that ABR's play was too brash to be a scum play. And remember--ABR claimed somewhat unprovoked.

Yeah, I will look into it.

[Goatrevolt]

Your roleblock went to me, ABR, however, I am immune to your One-Power effects.

I'm pretty sure ABR is telling the truth about roleblocking Isacc.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm pretty sure daybreak effects show up on Detect Saidar.

Yeah, but you're missing the point. Two specific daybreak events didn't show up on detect saidar. Both of those events involved the same player who also died that night. I'm suggesting that said player was killed before the daybreak phase even came around. So, JVW's protection didn't show up on the detect Saidar because SK was already dead, so there was nobody for JVW to protect. Likewise, SK's daybreak action of gentling SpyreX didn't show up on the detect Saidar because SK died in the previous phase, so he wasn't even alive to gentle SpyreX.

The argument to lynching JVW is that he lied about his night 1 actions, because he says he targeted SK but it isn't on the detect saidar. This is a bad, flawed theory, because the most likely explanation is that he did try to target SK, but it didn't show up on the detect Saidar because Isacc killed SK in an earlier phase. My theory is backed up by the evidence that SK's action also didn't show up on the detect Saidar. Occam's razor.

Did JVW blatantly lie in literally the worst possible fashion he could possibly lie in if he's scum, and additionally did SK manage to somehow lie or not submit an action despite this being unlikely based on his post history? Or did Isacc kill SK in an earlier phase? The latter is far more likely.

[Goatrevolt]

IDK, this seems really loose. The part that rings wrong with me is GR trying to use the "Its too stupid to be a lie" defense.

I see nothing wrong with that defense. The vast majority of the time, "too stupid to be a lie" works.

Armlx, why isn't SK's ability on the detect Saidar? He wasn't roleblocked. He was around and posting far too frequently to simply "miss" the submitting of an action. So why isn't it on the saidar? You strawman my argument by arguing against the too stupid to be a lie, but ignoring the meat of my point.

I'm thinking he was roleblocked the old fashioned way...by being killed. And JVW's bandage on SK fizzled when he was dismembered in response.

IDK, this seems really loose. The part that rings wrong with me is GR trying to use the "Its too stupid to be a lie" defense.

Indeed Kinetic stressed the complexity of this game is going to be incedibly difficult. I'm down for this 1-1 thing, but we may also want to consider who just believe to be ole fashion scummy.

Kinetic stressing the complexity of the game being incredibly difficult is a point in my favor, not a point against me.

The argument for JVW-KoC being a 1-1 is that the complexity of the game is simple, yet numerous players made a very unlikely series of coincidental plays all revolving around the same dead player night 1.

The argument I'm making is that the complexity of the game is not simple, and that the most likely and believable explanation is that Isacc could kill in an earlier phase than daybreak, thus nullifying the daybreak action of two players. This argument doesn't revolve around numerous players lying in absurd fashions about the exact same thing, and instead suggests that the most likely and simple explanation, "they are telling the truth" is correct, and that the game's complexity is the true issue here.

[Goatrevolt]

I really have no clue about any of the flavor arguments being discussed, but we should really start deciding on a lynch. Deadline is Sunday.

Vote Seteal

She's been looking for excuses as to how both she and Sajin can both be town despite discrepancies in their roles. First there was the unsupported "maybe two notes at the same location get screwed with" and now the "maybe I'm naive" point. She's trying to justify how she could still be town if Sajin dies and shows up town, rather than the natural townie response of going after Sajin for contradictory results/role mechanics.

[Goatrevolt]

I have no idea what is going on.

You haven't caught up on 130 pages yet? You've had plenty of time...

[Goatrevolt]

I have no idea what is going on.

You haven't caught up on 130 pages yet? You've had plenty of time...

You can't be serious.. give the guy a break...

I'm dead serious. There are no excuses.

Daybreak actions are due by 5/7, 11:59 PM

Uhh what month are you on?

He's probably from a country that uses the day/month/year format.

[Goatrevolt]

Goat after the first day or so..after a few post this becomes you’re activity.
Posts: May 14--May 16--May 21--May 29/29--June 4--June 9--June 14

Basically you played half the beginning of this game inactive. Stop being a douchebag the guy just replaced in, 130 pages…over the holiday weekend… if he does it in a week I’ll be happy.

I wasn't being serious.

I'm amazed JVW didn't get lynched, to be honest. If anything, JVW/Me was a far simpler 1v1.

indeed.

Except it very likely isn't a 1-1. Both of you are more than welcome to step up and refute my points.

[Goatrevolt]

I targeted Benmage.

Going to read through everything closer later tonight.

[Goatrevolt]

@Goat ...curious what you did/discovered.

I won't go into the dirty specifics of exactly what I did, but my discovery was that you like to prance around in women's underwear. Do you deny?

[Goatrevolt]

This is interesting.

Red Ajah.

Who did you target?

[Goatrevolt]

I want to see TSS claim his color.

[Goatrevolt]

Sajin claimed that the mod sent him results by PM. Setael very clearly stated that the only results he knew were the ones posted in thread. He didn't actually know which of the notes were his, because the mod didn't PM him the results privately.

I think that looks pretty bad for Sajin. I can't think of any reason to justify why two town note givers would have one receive the information via PM and the other just have it posted in thread. Regardless of sanity, that doesn't really make sense.

By the way, TSS and Goatrevolt still owe us an ajah color claim. I'm fine with claiming my color after they claim their colors, simply because I can back my up with posts from other players. Therefore, they should go first since their claims are less substantiated. Also, I should point out that Mora, who knows my role, has also confirmed that the aforementioned posts confirming my role DO exist, in case anyone questioned that. Even if he is scum, he had to confirm this, because otherwise I would know him to be scum for lying to everyone.

My Ajah claim can be verified. TSS should claim his first.

Also, how do you feel about Mora vs Yos2, considering that Mora was just blocked for the second time that a nightkill went missing?

MoS, I find it interesting that you are pushing Mora as scum, yet wasn't it Mora's information that caught Flay? Am I missing something here?

[Goatrevolt]

Also, has anyone noticed how Goatrevolt hasn't posted in forever?

Forever is 2 days? I've been posting more actively here than in any other game I'm currently playing in, and 2 days is hardly ridiculous.

[Goatrevolt]

I have yet to see anyone articulate the point of my claiming a color, particularly now that we know that it's not as simple as "the colors with three Aes Sedai claimants are the ones that include Black Ajah".

We don't know this...the Amyrlin seat is not technically a third Red. Regardless, armlx has a claim that resolved the triple color issue. I want to see how you and Goatrevolt resolve that issue with your claims.

I too am interested in seeing the resolution of this.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm also pretty satisfied with a 1-and-1 on Yos2 and TSS, and Yos2 is clearly the one that needs to go first.

Agreed.

Vote Yosarian2

I am the other blue, as should be clear by this point.

[Goatrevolt]

I was at windmill last twilight. I haven't read through any of the last 3 pages in any depth, just got back from a long weekend moving out of my apartment, and I'm dead tired. I'll catch up on everything tomorrow.

[Goatrevolt]

MBL didn't target anyone last twilight.

Reeeeeally? Because we're down to two non-Aes Sedai (me, Kai) and Mort says I didn't target anyone last night. You wouldn't happen to be tss's scumpartner coming after me for his same old tired argument, would you?

I agree with TSS. This looks extremely fraudulent.

MBL: Didn't MacavityLock's action fail against you earlier in the game? Why would Moratorium's succeed?

[Goatrevolt]

Anyway, I role-blocked MOS last night.

Bzzt, wrong answer.

Vote Yosarian

I know for a fact Yosarian is lying about his target.

[Goatrevolt]

Anyway, I role-blocked MOS last night.

Bzzt, wrong answer.

Vote Yosarian

I know for a fact Yosarian is lying about his target.

Excuse me?

What the hell are you talking about? I roleblocked MOS last night. I'm sure once we get the detections, that'll prove it.

How would the detections prove anything? It might prove that MoS was at the same location as your actual target, but that doesn't prove you actually targeted MoS.

I tracked you. You targeted TSS. You're lying scum. Noose, please.

[Goatrevolt]

Limited access only for right now. Judging from what I see, Yos2 needs to go today, probably Mora tomorrow. More to come as I catch up and return fully on July 29.

One note: I do not know whether or not my action on MBL

failed

, all I know is that its detection was not listed.

So the key is to evaluate whether or not Mora's action shows up on the Saidar.

My apologies. I was unclear with the reasoning.

charter is not scum because Yos2's actions went through. He's lying scum because he must have actually targetted Sajin. Otherwise we would have 2 more notes sitting here today.

Armlx could have also presumably blocked Sajin. I recall Armlx saying something like "give him a day then lynch him" in regards to Sajin.

My windmill detects:

1 from Barn
1 to Blacksmith

[Goatrevolt]

Just waiting on Sajin then?

Actually, I want to check up on a few things regarding the detections before we end the day as well.

[Goatrevolt]

Has anyone at the river claimed their Saidar detects yet?

[Goatrevolt]

Need location claims from MBL, Yosarian, Kairyuu, JVW, Macavity, and TSS.

Need someome from Blacksmith to claim their detections.

TSS, do you know who Armlx targeted?

[Goatrevolt]

Damnit. Freaking windows update automatically restarting with me having unsaved text in a notepad file. There's truly nothing that brings me more joy than wasting time writing up notes to have them get destroyed by some random and likely unnecessary update.

Anyway, moving past it...

Still need Yos + TSS to location claim.

Macavity, considering you're announced that you were at Blacksmith, you might as well also just claim your detections. I highly doubt scum are stupid enough to try to pass off a fake when you've announced the ability to screw them with it.

[Goatrevolt]

Still need Yos + TSS to location claim.

Your mom.

...

I was at the blacksmith last night. Hopefully detections will give us enough information to prove you to be lying scum here, goat.

My mom claimed River in our quick topic. Busted!

And wow...

Sajin: Explain as much as you are allowed to.

[Goatrevolt]

Ok, let me try to compile that info together.

[Goatrevolt]

Do you show up on the detect saidar even when roleblocked? Anyone know from prior days if this is true or false?

Also, dead people. On the saidar or not? (meaning those killed last twilight)

[Goatrevolt]

Barn (KoC, Kairyuu, MBL??)

1 from Blacksmith (Macavity -> KoC)
1 from River
1 to Windmill (KoC -> Goat)

River (Moratorium, Charter, Sajin, JVW, MOS, MBL??)

1 from Blacksmith (armlx -> JVW)
1 to Barn
1 to River
1 from River

Windmill (Goat)

1 from Barn (KoC -> Goat)
1 to Blacksmith (Goat -> Yosarian)

Blacksmith (Macavity, Yosarian, TSS, armlx)

1 to the River (Armlx -> JVW)
1 to the Barn (Macavity -> KoC)
1 to the Blacksmith (Yosarian -> TSS)
1 from the Blacksmith (Yosarian -> TSS)
1 from the Windmill (Goat -> Yosarian)


Based on the claims, the two missing actions would be MoS targeting someone and Moratorium targeting MBL. Without MBL's sleeping location it's impossible to tell which is which, unless Mora has information about where MoS planned to sleep.

That causes the saidar detections to perfectly match claimed actions (or non-actions/roleblocks)

Here are some theories:

Sajin claims he was stilled, but the saidar doesn't support the claim. He's probably lying. Could have submitted one of the kills last night, although is unlikely to have submitted kills previous nights due to being the one providing notes, plus was roleblocked if I recall.

Charter doesn't actually submit a block. Could be a ploy to explain him doing nothing as he makes the kill.

The Mora + MBL are both scum together theory. Mora makes a kill on someone, and claims to track MBL doing nothing. MBL doesn't claim his location so he can later claim wherever would fit the detections to match up with Mora's claim. Far-fetched? Maybe, but why does Mora's action targeting MBL show up on the saidar and not ML's from earlier? One possible explanation is that Mora didn't actually target MBL.

[Goatrevolt]

For one, I'd sure like to hear why he decided to lie about targeting Goatrevolt. What motivation would a townie have to lie about that?

None, that I can see. However, I also don't see any good scum motivation to lie about it either. As scum, his only motivation to lie about a night target is if he's off killing people instead. But you say you tracked him doing nothing. So why not just say "I didn't submit an action?" I guess it's plausible he didn't get in anything and didn't want to have to claim that he didn't submit a target, but then...why claim something the saidar detections are going to show as a lie?

Actually, wait a second. Duh! Based on my saidar detections I know KoC didn't target me last night. KoC: Explanation?

I also want to say how ... fishy it is how many people "didn't submit" an action last twilight. No motivation, no roleblock, no KoC doc heal on me. Did this many players really forget to submit actions, or are people submitting kills and passing it off as forgetfulness? You decide 2k9.

[Goatrevolt]

So, who did you target last night, Sajin?

[Goatrevolt]

Alright. Just need TSS to claim his target then.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm not happy about the idea of lynching KoC over this. I don't see any motivation for why he would lie about this as scum.

[Goatrevolt]

Right now I'm extremely suspicious of Sajin and Kairyuu. Kairyuu, when is the last night we've actually seen your motivation result in anything? Was it back when Isacc got the extra kills? I seriously can't think of a time past that point where anyone did anything with a motivation. Can you run through your reasons for choosing each of your motivation targets? Specifically, why motivate Sajin?

We lynch Setael. Despite differences in the PMs between Set and Sajin, Kairyuu decides to motivate Sajin. Nothing results from this. He motivates Sajin again, but Sajin apparently "no longer has access to the one power." And then he doesn't submit a motivation target.

Is there any good reason why I haven't been motivated? Or a doctor?

And then there is Sajin, who has somehow lost access to the one power. This needs to be resolved today.

[Goatrevolt]

This is the 2nd or 3rd time goat's protected KoC from attack. He may be right, but it should be noted.

Noted. Do you disagree with my stance on KoC? Or are you just tossing baseless suspicion on me?

[Goatrevolt]

A) Cop confirmed town is a bit misleading. "Sajin" confirmed town is more accurate.

B) Motivator is the kind of role that is

unlikely

to show up on scum, but I'm very hesitant to play "game the mod" in a giant theme game like this. I'm going to stick to analyzing play/how you used the role rather than saying "Oh, motivator, must be guaranteed town".

Where did we confirm that Sajin is accurate?

What do you think about Sajin being cut off from the power?

Sajin confirms you as town. You motivate him a few times but nothing results from it. Sajin loses his powers. You don't submit a target. The two of you have faded into the shadows in recent days.

Preview Edit: Why is Sajin confirmed town? Why is charter scum?

[Goatrevolt]

...Okay, I dunno what has happened here. I sent the PM, I can actually find the PM in my history and the subsequent "your message has been sent" page, but it's not in my outbox or sentbox. Which is... odd. I can only assume the forum glitched and chewed my PM up.

unvote

Sorry about this. It's bloody weird, I've got a record of the PM being sent but the forum hasn't acknowledged it.

Screenshots, please.

Are you trying to get him modkilled?

[Goatrevolt]

I'm confused at how accepting you are of a "The Forums ate my homework" defense.

I don't see the scum motivation behind him lying about this. I seriously don't see what he would gain at all by lying here as scum.

[Goatrevolt]

After conferring with the mod, I can add a little bit of curious information into the stew. I targeted Moratorium and was prevented from using my ability.

When you say prevented, do you mean roleblocked? Did you get any flavor for this?

I would prefer, however, to lynch MBL.

Why is that?


I desperately need to go through the game, look at the notes, the detections, the location claims and try to construct a picture of everything that has happened. Can't say I'm looking forward to scouring through 150 pages for specific pieces of information, though.

------------------

Targets:

MBL: ???
Sajin: No target
Charter: No target
Kairyuu: No target
Goat: Sajin
TSS: Moratorium (blocked?)
JVW: TSS
Moratorium: KoC
KoC: No target

Sleeping Locations:

MBL: ???
Sajin: ???
Charter: ???
Kairyuu: ???
Goat: Windmill
TSS: River
JVW: ????
KoC: ????

Just need location/detection claims now.

Sajin: Where did you sleep last night and what were your detect saidar results?

Charter: Did MacavityLock say who he was planning to target in your QT?

MBL:

This is the 2nd or 3rd time goat's protected KoC from attack. He may be right, but it should be noted.

Noted. Do you disagree with my stance on KoC? Or are you just tossing baseless suspicion on me?

[Goatrevolt]

I'm waiting on a few claims to be made before I make mine as well.

[Goatrevolt]

I slept at Windmill, and my only detection was

1 To Barn.

Noted. Do you disagree with my stance on KoC? Or are you just tossing baseless suspicion on me?

My gut feeling is that there aren't two doctors. I think I was actually wrong, and you protected JVW from lynch last time and KoC this time. So if that's correct, my point is entirely invalid and you're just being cautious. I need to read their play and protects more carefully to see if they make sense.

Ah, yeah. Last time I defended JVW because we were lynching him based on the 1-1 between him and KoC over night 1 role actions. I discovered evidence that made the reasons for lynching JVW completely flawed.

This time I defended KoC because the 1-1 proposed today is not in any way a conclusive 1-1. KoC did indeed lie, but his suggestion that it was an intentional lie based on accidental causes makes more sense than the idea it was an intentional lie for scum motive, because I have no idea what the possible scum motive could even be.

I also think it's bizarre that Sajin was "stilled" and yet the same attempt hasn't been made on a doctor. I think the scumdoctor probably knows they'll stand out if their teammates still the real doctor.

Well, I'm skeptical of the notion that Sajin was stilled in the first place. I tracked him last night specifically for the purpose of verifying that he was in fact doing nothing, and not off killing people while we believed him to be vanilla. I was also hoping he'd slip up and reveal detections, but whether he's lying or telling the truth, he played that correctly. He also did in fact do nothing last night, so...I don't know.

---------------

TSS: I agree with the points about his claim being sketchy, but I think there are some flawed assumptions being made with 1-2.

The main flaw as I see it, is that you suggest MBL is the only remaining scum member of his team, yet he was tracked doing nothing the night armlx was killed. So either two separate scum teams (Mora/MBL) are collaborating together in their night actions, or he can't be alone if he's scum.

If a lynch is a roleblock, then wouldn't that make it impossible for Yos to have blocked you?

That might fall into the weird roleblock interactions with this game, where two blockers don't actually block each other.

There were no poisonings the nights Slicey, SpyreX and Macavity were strangled. Can we possibly determine why by looking at doc protects, roleblocks etc?

TSS claims to be blocked today.
I think Moratorium was blocked both of the nights of Slicey/SpyreX's deaths, but I will have to check on that.

[Goatrevolt]

Theory: Survivor Mafia didn't get to nightkill. And they were/are a distinct group from the "Mafia" Yos was in.

I'm pretty sure Flay was behind the incineration kills, since those stopped when he died.

[Goatrevolt]

Can everyone please help clean this claimed targets list up?

Made some corrections:

thesilentspeaker (replaces fuzzylightning)
Claimed ??? Ajeh - ???
N1: ABR
N2: None
N3: None
N4: MBL
N5: Yosarian
N6: Blocked by Yos
N7: Blocked by Yos??

Knight of Cydonia (replaces Seraphim)
Claimed Yellow Ajeh - doctor
N1: Gentled SpyreZX
N2-N5: Goat
N6: Goat
N7: Goat (but order didnt go through)

julienvonwolfe
Claimed Yellow Ajeh - doctor
N1: Shadow Knight
N3: Kison
N4: MoS (blocked?)
N5: Not sure here, but I recall MoS. Need to check up to verify that.
N6: TSS (says he was blocked)
N7: TSS

charter (replaces Albert B. Rampage)
Claimed Red Ajah - roleblocker
N1: Isaac
N2: Seraphim
N3: Moratorium
N4: JVM
N5: Kairyuu (You had ABR here, heh. Probably didn't block himself)
N6: Yosarian
N7: failed to submit

Goatrevolt (replaces Tuberkulos)
Claimed Blue Ajeh - tracker
N1: ABR (hence my repeated assertion ABR did block Isacc, not SK)
N2: Kairyuu (global block)
N3: Kairyuu -> ABR
N4: Yosarian -> MoS
N5: Benmage -> SpyreX
N6: Yosarian->TSS
N7: Sajin->0

Moratorium
Claimed Tetsanyadin Sedai of the Blue Ajeh - tracker
N1: Mr. Flay
N2: Didn't submit in time
N3: Benmage
N4: Albert B. Rampage
N5:(claims was blocked by Yos)
N6: MBL->0
N7: KoC

Sajin
Claimed Brown Ajeh - cop
T1- Stables
T2- Who cares/don't remember?
T3- River
T4- Barn- My notice is the 1 of 3 notice that do not have the town at heart.
N5: River
T6, T7: No action due to stilling

Kairyuu
Claimed Butler -- motivator
N1 - Isacc
N3 - ABR
N4 - Faraday
N5 - Sajin
N6 - Sajin
N7 - missed action

MrBuddyLee (replaces: Tucking Fypo)
Claimed no role

[Goatrevolt]

Wow, was that a lynch already?

I didn't even have a chance to look closely at the 1-1.

[Goatrevolt]

So the 1-1 is based around Moratorium not actually being roleblocked by Yosarian but lying about it? Is there any possibility that the extra saidar usage detected was by someone who died? MoS and Armlx showed up on the saidar the night they died. I'm not convinced this is as surefire as claimed to be, especially based on the manner in which he got lynched. At any rate, he's dead, so it's a moot point. I guess we just hope it was correct.

If Moratorium is not scum, Sajin is almost definitely scum. Actually, I bet Sajin is probably scum regardless. Compare post 3809 with 3816. He first

attacks

TSS for pitting him in a one for one against Moratorium, and then 7 posts later he hammers Moratorium. That is absurdly scummy. I don't see a townie swapping that quickly to hammer someone prematurely, especially based on a premise he himself scorned a few hours earlier. Couple that with his stilled claim that isn't matching up to the detections and I think we have a winner here.

-----------------

We need to use this twilight for everyone to claim their locations/detections. Don't worry about waiting for others to claim in the right order or anything. I want to make sure we get everything.

JVW, Charter, Kairyuu, MBL, KoC, Moratorium need to claim locations and detections. I've posted the windmill detections already, just need Barn, Blacksmith, River.

[Goatrevolt]

I slept at the Barn again. I think I did at least. I sent that location in with my power usage and Kinetic didn't send me a randomized location afterwards, so I assume that the sleeping location stuck.

Woah, wait. I thought you didn't submit an action last night?

[Goatrevolt]

Alright, yeah, I see where you claimed that. Fair enough.

[Goatrevolt]

Mora, if you are indeed town, you should provide us with your detections and location from last night.

TSS, what were your River detects?

Who's left? KoC, JVW, Charter I think.

[Goatrevolt]

Thanks.

Also, if I get killed tonight, Sajin must be lynched tomorrow. There is no way he makes that play as town.

[Goatrevolt]

The town would have won no questions asked had JVW been lynched the day he got taken to L-1. Without JVW we would have had only 1 kill per night with like 16+ people alive, and me the only scum who wasn't under heavy suspicion. There's no way I could have pulled it out against like 10 townies though, since I had lurked most of the game and would have been a process of elimination lynch at some point or another.

I thought it was a guaranteed loss at that point. However, JVW actually did target SK that night (with his false heal ability, though) so I knew the 1-1 was based on incorrect assumptions somewhere. When MBL kept pushing the idea of someone roleblocking SK I was able to figure it out. Being able to swing that lynch from JVW at L-1 to the real mass cop being lynched was huge for us.

[Goatrevolt]

MBL, I thought you might actually be a neutral of some sort. You seemed legitimately nervous when MacavityLock wanted to test your ability.

I can't believe that after the lynch was swung away from JVW that nobody ever came back to him again. Nobody so much as laid suspicion on him the rest of the game. I wanted to keep him alive as long as possible because he was the poisoning kills and we needed those. I was prepared to bus the hell out of Sajin should it be necessary to keep JVW alive.

My severe lurking in the beginning of the game was mostly because I simply had no clue what was going on. There was like a 20 page period (when Flay got lynched) that I actually never even read. Eventually I just decided I needed to throw myself into the game or I would get lurker lynched.

I also am impressed that Sajin managed to get away with his fake stilled claim. Yosarian and I were both arguing against him making that play in the quick topic but, hey, it actually managed to work out. I thought he was going to guaranteed get lynched as soon as he claimed it.

My favorite line in our quick topic was this:

Sajin: "As much as I love your commentary about your mom, that would be an oath violation goat."

I couldn't stop laughing at that line.

[Goatrevolt]

MacavityLock wasn't scum. Are you talking about our quick topic?

[Goatrevolt]

The Fabian lynch actually helped us out a lot. It consolidated us into one team and removed the chance of us cross killing each other. Also the Isacc lynch helped us as it removed the chance of cross-killing from wrecking us (after he killed 3 townies, of course!)

[Goatrevolt]

Wow Fabian's role was sick. I wish I had known what he did (and my predecessor even had a quick topic with him).

Also, I was right about Isacc having an assassinate ability. At least I staved off JVW's lynch with accurate information.

[Goatrevolt]

I don't think anyone figured out JVW had a killing ability. He got roleblocked so many times but because it happened on the following day no one matched up the saidars. He claimed his true target every day.

I was laughing.

I was so worried someone would connect the dots. Every single one of JVW's targets corresponded to someone that was killed the following twilight.

Ahhh, so I wasn't correct about Isacc completely.

And yes, I used the Eavesdrop kill to kill whoever Kairyuu targeted, which was ABR, who was protected by a Bodyguard, Slicey. It took me forever to figure out what the hell happened with that kill.

[Goatrevolt]

The confusion in the Mafia thread was so amusing for much of the game. Goat's Indirect Kill would never work correctly, JVM kept getting blocked, it was madness.

Hahaha, yeah...

Both times I tried the indirect approach it didn't succeed as expected. The first time was Slicey dead from bodyguarding. The 2nd was Benmage to SpyreX but SpyreX didn't die, so I was like WTF? I was so happy when he eventually died.

By the end of the game I think I had a good grasp on everything, though. I think we actually worked pretty well together as a team, from planning out how I could kill someone like Armlx and claim a track on Yosarian to give myself some more +town points, or spreading JVW and Sajin out for sleeping locations so I could claim a track on either of them instead of having to claim to have actually targeted MacavityLock.

Controlled madness.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm happy with the way the game turned out too.

[Goatrevolt]

A funny quote from our quick topic:

Yosarian: "I think the last people in our scumgroup who have a chance of making it to endgame are Goad and KOC."

KoC wasn't in our scum group .

[Goatrevolt]

Yeah, that quicklynch on Mora was hastily thrown together. I just made sure to stick off it, because nobody was suspicious of me and I didn't want to screw myself over if something went wrong. If Charter roleblocked me that final night, we would have been screwed over, so I had to make sure to appear pro-town as possible to avoid that.

I was worried MBL was going to go back through the thread and bust me as being the strangler. I was one of the few people over the course of the game who had not been roleblocked a single time and yet strangling happened every single night.

I'm really surprised that Sajin was allowed to skate off free despite him having blatant differences in his role PM from Setael and claiming to be stilled without any specific time frame of when it could have possibly happened. I was trying to bus Sajin and take Kairyuu down with him, and then people were harassing me for going after the confirmed cop, so I was like....ooook. Moratorium then?

[Goatrevolt]

Moratorium actually had a lot of really good insight in his quick topic with MoS. He was spot on with his early game calls.