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I was hoping to get some more out of the account services qt before starting in the main thread, but responses there were slow in coming and then there was a weekend and holy-shit-FL-was-lynched, so sorry this post took so long in coming.
General vibes while reading, from the top:
- Ren's attack on scotmany re: random choice - I understand the position. Ren is appropriately zealous and aggressive. He's town. scot seems pretty weasely.
- Sera was at this point aggressively grilling scot and later in the day ends up scumkilled, this also looks bad for scot.
- cay's post 55 is a huge partner tell if scot is scum
- At this point I'm pretty much sure Ren is town.
- I disagree with my former self at post 87. I also have the benefit of Sera already being dead and confirmed town to work with though. Cay at this point looks far and away the worst from the ren-sera-cay discussion here and in the qt (discussion there already laid out by Nuwen)
- sera-Ren fight really got out of hand. Still think Ren is town.
- Adel is rubbing me the wrong way, focusing too much on theory/breaking-the-game and too little on analyzing the other players.
- Top of page six, Adel seems to be asking leading Qs of seraphim that are designed specifically to make him look scummy, not actually ascertain whether what he did was more likely to come from scum
- Sens' entrance is extremely underwhelming. Made even moreso by advance knowledge of Sera's town alignment.
- TDC has been notably tightlipped.
- I wish I had Nuwen's Diagram of Doom. I will be much less helpful than she was for game-breaking purposes.
- Cay's post 263 is mega slimy
- I really don't understand why TDC comes out of the gates with a Sera vote after barely commenting on anything during the first part of the game either
- Adel's vote and explanation of wanting to see if anyone would follow her is very scummy. There was a whole lot more to work with than just a lurker.
- Yuck. Yos' and Sens' votes are both also terrible. What is the deal here guys? How slow was this game moving?
- Ren is still almost certainly town. Budja's vote seems honest. Yos' feels like serious piggybacking.
- This whole wagon sucks. Budja, Vollkan seem like the honest participants. Yos and Sens' stick out as the scummy voters.
- I don't really understand where Adel's FL vote is coming from.
- Yos' post 350 is like a giant, terrible smear campaign against ren that entirely ignores the possibility that Sera is who the scum may have been busdrivento. If that is the case, they very well may have been targeting someone off the Ren wagon hoping to land a twofer.
- Sens looks extremely scummy throughout this whole push against FL
- Ironic that in post 382 Adel doesn't want to "serve as a pathfinder" for a mislynch but then as far as I can tell ends up being the major thrust behind the FL mislynch.
- Post 391 is a cheap shot from Adel. Its like a madlib where the blank saysScummy Reasonunderneath it. She doesn't even have to come up with her own, everyone else will just fill it in themselves after this post.
- Bottom of 16/Top of 17 - Alt hunting is a waste of time. It is unimportant.
- Yos could very well be attempting to save Sens by refocusing pressure on Ren
- Yos continuing to push the "scum killed someone on the Ren wagon therefore Ren is scum" line of attack is really, really scummy.
- Yay the coolest guy ever replaced Nuwen! (give me a break its the middle of the night)
- I'm following scot's reasoning much better now. Early game random thing was probably honest. Ren's reaction to it still makes him town.
- Digesting Adel's post of the QT... honestly, it looks good right up to Adel calling people being willing to go after Sens a town-tell for him. The wagon on Sens at this point was a whopping two votes. I'm pretty sure Sens is scum and Adel is either scum with him or totally taken in by virtue of sharing a QT with him.
- Goat's busdriver reveal: scot is town, goat is town, goat was (obviously, based on his flip) incorrect in assessing FL's reactions. I think the most telling reaction (and attempts to use the sera death) is still Yos. This also p much clears Ren, as scot was not voting Ren so if he had died, Ren would have been autolynched.
- Post 513 from Yos acknowledges that the busdrive makes scot town, but ignores that it makes Ren town as well, and that he's been trying to use the Sera kill to his advantage to press a Ren lynch. Yos is so scum.
- OK, hold the phone. Adel's quicklynch FL plan looks good at first glance, but on a deeper level it is seriously, seriously terrible. I don't know why at this point Goat is the only one who has pointed out that Ren is very very probably town based on busdrive etc but this fact leaves FL and Sens as the only really viable wagons left. So Adel suddenly comes up with some crazy break-the-game theory of why FL should be quicklynched no questions asked? I call shenanigans. Adel was saving Sens' bacon, pure and simple.
- It should have been clear from FL posting after Adel potentially blew up scum-FL's spot with the "lets quicklynch him" post andnotswapping out scot that FL was town and not in need of quicklynching.
OK, that brings me up through the FL lynch. I'll look at these choices for roles that I need to vote on in the morning. One that sticks out as uber obvious is Jailkeeper targeting Scot.
Here's the TL;DR version of the above, distilled to its essence
As Good As Confirmed Town
Scot
Goat
Ren
Town-Seeming
Budja
Vollkan
CKD
Scummy and/or Didn't Make Any Impression
Crywolf
TDC
Scumbags
Sens
Yos
(Adel)-
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OhGodMyLife Silent But Deadly
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I didn't actually imply that the act of figuring out the mechanics was anti-town, so this response seems vaguely like a straw-man. The crux of my problem with you at that point was your overall lack of player analysis in favor of neutral game mechanic analysis, something your response here fails to address. Its not that what youAdel wrote:why is figuring out the mechanics in play anti-town? with 14 living players, and most of them not having an especially solid grasp of the mechanics, I thought that was where my talents would best be directed.weredoing was anti-town, its that what youweren'tdoing is scummy.
This doesn't really tackle the issue that your questions were extremely leading. It explains why you asked him anything on the subject in the first place, but does not explain what I actually found scummy about the questions. Again you seem to be dodging the main points I've brought up in favor of answering something related but easier to explain.Adel wrote:...I was trying to get some traction on him. I suspected that he was scum attempting to undermine my plan, or figure out what his team's reaction should be to it.
The fact that this apparently did get Voll posting does not excuse the fact that a lurkerhunt or even a lurkerprod-vote was not really appropriate at the time, and seemed to have functioned simply to allow you to ignore the major game movements happening at the time.Adel wrote:and it did get vollkan posting.
My comment wasn't really even concerned with the anti-Ren portion of the post. You've ignored (again) the actual point about what was scummy and responded to something only tangentially related. You said you didn't want to be a pathfinder for a mislynch. You later got in the driver's seat and super-aggressively forced a mislynch of FL through.Adel wrote:I think it is one of the stronger anti-Ren posts in this game, and I think it is interesting that you focused on the irony. Chainsaw defense, I think.
Accusations of a chainsaw-defense of Ren would only concern me if there was even a slight possibility of Ren being scum. After learning that scot (who was not on the Ren wagon) was the true target for yesterday's scumkill, we know that had the scumkill succeeded, Ren would have been autolynched. Therefore the safe assumption is that Ren is town. Trying to make me look scummy for "chainsaw defense" of Ren is therefore a moot point.
Thats a sad story. So why didn't you say it then? Why did you leave an open-ended question obviously intended to be filled in with the best scummy reason to drop a game a player could imagine?Adel wrote:My theory was, and is, that because she has had serious RL drama with TSQ, and figured out that TSQ=Ren, she replaced out.
I have played with TSQ. I don't doubt Ren is an alt. I am confident Ren is not TSQ. I understand Ren's positions in this game, that was enough for me to conclude that Ren is town from early on. Ren is also now essentially cleared through coordinated night actions and the status of his bandwagon at the time of the Sera kill, so any further investigation into Ren's main identity becomes even more of a waste of time.Adel wrote:have you ever played with TSQ? Do you doubt that Ren is an alt? If Ren is TSQ will that help you determine Ren's alignment?
Yos never even brought up the possibility of Sera being involved in busdriver targets, that I can recall. He simply tried to argue that Sera was the intended target and therefore Ren should be lynched. It was a scummy position to take, made moreso by the busdriver reveal confirming Ren.Adel wrote:why? The same though occurred to me. I really didn't think that the scum would've targeted scot, for fear of the busdriver, and I was trying to figure out why Serapham was targeted by scum, and saving Ren's bacon seemed like a plausible cause.
1) Ren's reaction was the same as my initial reaction to scot's early post. Ren perhaps responded more strongly than I would have, but I completely understood the train of logic.Adel wrote:how does Ren's reaction make him honest? More importantly, how do you equate Ren's corruption of the signal:noise ratio in this thread with a likely-town alignment?
2) You are completely overblowing this whole "signal/noise" thing in regards to Ren. I think very little of Ren's posting has been noise. You seem to be grasping at any straw you can to keep Ren as a potential lynch.
At that point, the idea of a Ren lynch was much more in favor, and the two Sens votes were the minority voice fighting hard to make headway. Again, now that we have mechanical confirmation that Ren is town, this is even more telling.Adel wrote:It seemed to me that Ren was scum, and Sens was taking heat as an alternative to a Ren-scum lynch.
Saving someone you have a "sloppy townie" read on by driving a quicklynch on another (town) player seems... sub-optimal to say the least.Adel wrote:did you note the posts where I explicitly stated that I did not Sens lynched? I didn't, and I still don't. His play has been sloppy, and he has been making sub-optimal posts regardless of what his alignment is. I fail to see a scum-motivation for his sloppiness, and RL drama seems like a good explanation. I see him as a relatively un-invested townie popping in and typing some words, and not thinking carefully enough about the game: mislynch material.
Post 522Adel wrote:which post number should FL-scum have swapped scot out by? At which post number should we have concluded that FL was town?
I'm still unsure about the likelihood of you and Sens being scumpartners. I'm virtually positive one of you is scum. After this post, it seems much more likely that you're the scum.Adel wrote:why is my name in parenthesis?
This still ignores my main point - addressing lurkers at all is simply a way to ignore the real meat of the discussion going on around you.Adel wrote:my stated reason for the gambit was "to see what your response time was, and if anyone else would follow my vote" -- I wanted to poke vollkan since he was being quiet, and I am weary of lazy townies votes without thinking, especially during day 1 -- it makes later voting analysis much harder.
If I wanted to start a lurker hunt, I would've picked a legitimate lurker.
----
Adel's failure to grasp that Ren is now p much confirmed is a major red flag. She's been 100% on top of every other mechanical nuance in this game, yet ignores this one and continues pushing the "whose alt are you" and "signal/noise ratio" non-arguments against him.
Adel's spectacularly over-the-top defense of Sens makes sense only if she truly knows his alignment. If she's scum and he's scum, the reasons are obvious. If she's scum and he's town (which is where I'm now beginning to lean) then it scores her some easy points and could mean a trusting, uninvested townie buddy who she can communicate secretly with for the duration of the game and very probably direct.
Adel's indirect answers to almost all of the points I raised regarding her is very, very strawman.-
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OhGodMyLife Silent But Deadly
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Harping on this position for so long, and as far as I can tell spending a large stretch of the game not commenting on much of anything else, was a scummy position to take. Ignoring even the possibility that the Sera kill was the result of the kill being busdriven in constructing your argument against Ren was scummy. Trying to get Ren lynched at all was scummy.Yosarian2 wrote:Anyway, the OGML post:
As always, OGML think's I'm scum, hah.
Anyway, he is right that one of my arguments against Ren, the one based on the kill, is no longer valid now that we know the scum tried to kill Scot, and hadn't actually intended to kill Serephem.
And no, I wasn't assuming that the scum was bus driven to Serephem. I was assuming that the scum didn't want to kill a creative team member because of the risk of PGO, they didn't want to kill scot because of the risk of bus driving, so they just targeted someone else, perhaps hoping to get bus driven back to scot if they got lucky. If that had been the scum motivation, then they certanly could just as easily have killed someone on the ren wagon as someone off of it.
Of course, we now know that I (and everyone else) was wrong about what happened, but I hardly see how that makes me scum.
Unlike most of my scum reads on you, this one isn't based on gut
Though I also have a gut feeling that this:
Is scummy too. I think Yos, as town, would have made much better use of the private communication tool. Especially now that Goat is virtually confirmed, it seems like being able to communicate privately with him is exceptionally powerful. Not doing so makes it seem like he doesn't want to slip up there.Yosarian2 wrote:We haven't really used ours either.
If there was anything I specficially wanted to question goat about, I would do it in thread here and get reactions from other people as well.-
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CODE RED! BULLSHIT ALERT!Yosarian2 wrote:I led the attack against both Ren and Sens on day 1; I effectivly started both bandwagons.
Is this what you call effectively starting the Ren wagon, Yos?
Because it looks to me more like blatant piggybacking.Yosarian2 wrote:Yosarian2 wrote:
I like this logic a lot.Budja wrote:vote: Ren Hoek
Started suspicion onto the creative director for a bad reason (saying random picks are bad/scummy). The scum would certainly want the director (if not scum) removed so this feels a little bad to me.
Unvote:Budja; it was basically a vote for flying under the radar, and with this post, he's not flying under the radar anymore.
Vote: Ren Hoek
And as for Sens, it was hard to even find anything where you even addressed him, let alone started his bandwagon, since you never actually voted for him. I don't know about anyone else, but when I hear someone say that they "started" a bandwagon, I expect a vote to be involved.
You just made random potshots when it was easy, like this one:
And, even stranger than this, you took issue with Sens dodging REN of all people:Sens wrote:Anyway, I'm not happy about Sensfan's play recently. He said he thought the case on FL was very strong, then when asked to explain why, he got oddly evasive.
Ren, of course, being the same person you're still busy trying to crucify.Yosarian2 wrote:Well, Sensfan, your attack against FL looked like you were misrepresenting him.
More to the point was your odd reluctance to answer the question Ren posed, which was "why do you think the case against FL was so solid?"
In these two posts, it looks like you choice to verbally fence with Ren rather then actualy just answer the question, and I don't understand why a pro-town person would resist explaining their case on someone.
In fact, Yos never once moved his vote from Ren after placing it except to help quicklynch FL.
And after Adel is lynched and flips scum, this post right here will be the final nail in Yosarian's coffin.
CKD did a damn fine job with the Adel write-up. I don't think I need to add any more.-
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Given that Yos hasn't even had the cajones to actually vote for Sens yet today, despite ratcheting up the rhetoric, I'd say this qualifies more as distancing than bussing, if they are indeed scumbuddies.
I'd say its much more likely that Sens is town and Yos is just not sure how much groundwork he needs to lay before he can vote Sens without taking heat for it later. (Hint: there is not enough groundwork in the world.)-
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That looks like more than enough motivation for Scum-Adel to defend Town-Sens, so stop trying to feed us that "defending someone who's town is a town-tell" bullshit.The Rules wrote:(25c) Individual Creative Department Members (those who have lost one half of their Creative Team) may not be assigned any role actions.-
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Hey, I can use the word fuck too. Ready?
Fuck Adel's fake ass meltdown. Oh my god, you've gotten lynched in games? This if fucking mafia. Since you're using your laudable skill as the basis for your sudden emotional tirade, I know that you know appeals to emotion are nothing more than worthless deflections.
Explosive emotional meltdowns do not impress coming from a player who strives to present himself as the most careful and logical player on the entire site. You can come down off of your pedestal, Professor Mafia, and join the rest of the mortal MafiaScum universe in getting lynched when you get caught.
If this outburst is real, fine. Replace out of this game right fucking now and let someone whose point of view isn't "Fuck Mafia" play and enjoy themselves. And get fucked while you're at it.-
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Why would Adel vote Sens? It could have something to do with the fact that I pointed out how very plausible it was for scum-Adel to really want to save Sens no matter his alignment because of the creative team mechanic, and he's now reverted to total damage control / confuse the fuck out of the town mode.-
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Going back to respond piecemeal to Post 648.
Once again you ignore the thrust of my point, which is that you were asking leading questionsAdel wrote:why was I asking him leading quations? to get some traction on him.designed to make him look scummy. Intentionally making someone look scummy is not getting traction on them, it is setting them up. No amount of trying to explain this away will help you.
Bravo to you sarcasm! Its almost like if you just deflect me with your razor sharp wit I'll stop making the case that you are scum!Adel wrote:yep, you got me, I'm lurking in plain sight, & evading chances to get involved with this game. Bravo to you skill!
I'll tell you what I think makes more sense, from a motivation standpoint. I think it makes more sense that scum-Adel wanted to secure a mislynch of a major town power role (especially given that the other one, scotmany, just got proven town) and found a mechanical reason to push the lynch instead of a play based reason, than town-Adel suddenly having a flash of brilliant insight and deciding that lynching someone on a mechanical basis was the town's best move. Thats just my opinion, but I'm really keen on sharing it with everyone.Adel wrote:Things changed, and I decided that a lynch of FL was of paramount importance.
Adel wrote:I was trying to establish if he was tsq or not. That is what I was focused upon.
Why. Does. It. Matter.Adel wrote:why isn't he tsq?
Haven't you ever played with a new player before? Even better, how about a new player with an unorthodox playstyle? You figure out how to read them based on what they do in this game.
All right, let me go through my exact thought process as I read the first few pages.Adel wrote:please explain this to me, because I reached exactly the opposite conclusion.
1. I don't like what scot just did. Seems slimy.
2. Oh, Ren noticed that too. We're on the same page.
3. Ren is pursuing this aggressively. Good sign. Town.
Beyond the fact that relying on meta-ing other players is a crutch that I don't think is necessary, and that I don't feel the need to give my opinion on the identity of an alt which may not want to be identified, I am increasingly incredulous that a player like you, who is so plugged in to the overall site meta, has not already figured out that Ren is pretty much the polar opposite of TSQ.Adel wrote:if you know whose alt he is please just tell me so that I will stop wasting brain cycles trying to figure it out.
But the scum DID NOT TARGET A PERSON ON REN'S WAGON. Therefore the purpose of their kill WAS NOT TO STOP WAGON MOMENTUM.Adel wrote:why is it scummy? scum killing a person on ren's wagon instead someone off of it totally killed ren's wagon. It seems like an ideal way to stop the wagon momentum to me.
First, you seem to be applying this cookie-cutter scum tell of "self-voting" without even attempting to calibrate for the actual conditions the self-vote was made in. Second, it is clearly your opinion, and your opinion only, that Ren's posts have been "spammy" or upping the "signal-noise" ratio, and in no way provable fact. Third, as should be obvious by now, Ren's playstyle is not a generic townie playstyle, so trying to lynch him based on that simple fact is extremely dishonest.Adel wrote:he self voted, and then made spammy post after spammy post, almost none of which make sense to me from a generic townie playstyle p.o.v.
As Ren has said, near-confirmed townies areAdel wrote:I'm not trusting that mechanical information on Ren, to the extent that I'm even double guessing how confirmed GR is.incrediblyinconvenient for scum. Your continued efforts to keep Ren and Goat in the lynchable category is therefore extremely scummy.
And they have, Adel. And they have.Adel wrote:If other players think I am being intentionally evasive, please let me know.
Thats enough for now.-
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I believe Ren is as good as confirmed town. This is not a result of extremely good luck on Ren's part, it was bad luck / bad choices by the scum. One attempted nightkill pretty much confirmed three players (scot, goat, ren) as town. Thats why Adel/Michel and Yos have been trying so hard to unconfirm anyone that they can from that group - as a team, they screwed up big time.-
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The irony of Sens being the most recent post in the MD thread Lurking's Not a Scumtell is not lost on me.
I've come around to the idea of him being the scum in the Sens/Michel pair. I agree with previous statements made regarding Sens-Yos making good sense.
Unvote, Vote: Sens-
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We obviously disagree on a very basic level about some things. I think there is a time for everyone to be doing their own thing, and a time for everyone to come together and provide some real momentum. The accounting quicktopic is (was) a powerful tool to organize that momentum before it became public fodder.Oj wrote:Because a good time for neglecting independent thought for group think is about never.
And speaking of momentum, thats what this game needs very badly right now, and part of what I'm hoping my Sens vote will give it. The other part is a scum lynch.
It seems wildly outlandish, and I am confident enough in Ren's alignment for reasons completely separate from the mechanical aspects of the bus drive / sera kill that I can safely ignore the possibility.Michel wrote:OGML, can you please explain to me (or show me were you explained) why you believe Ren Hoek and Goatrevolt absolutely aren't scum together? Because as far as I can see, you have ignored that possibility completely.-
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Family obligations have me limited to only a short time on a real computer each day for the next week. I'll be periodically checking the site from my phone, but the blackberry's web browser is the worst platform for viewing MS in the entire world. An i-ching set would work better.
Michel, Yos, Vollkan - thats my call for the scumteam.-
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So, after Vollkan scum gets a righteous vig bullet between the eyes, I think we should still lynch Michel, because he and Yos are both scum, so the cop result is probably going to be falsified anyway. If Yos wants to go ahead and assume Michel will be lynched and take the cop ability, thats just fine by me.
Michel, all of your theorizing yesterday about Ren scum and Goat scum was a huge, huge reach based on completely wack-tackular assumptions. Ren isn't scum today, he wasn't scum yesterday. I understand that you haven't really got any other options except trying to get these confirmed players to be less confirmed, but know for the future that it just makes you more obvious.-
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If either you or Michel is not scum then to kill the cop the scum must kill someone who will almost certainly be a mislynch in the near future. I'd rather lose the cop investigation and get the scummiest people out of the way than let you and Michel live another day while we go on a fishing expedition amongst the rest of the living players.Yosarian2 wrote:
OGML, do you actually realize not how bad it is to be fishing for the cop role like this before the scum get to make their kill, in a situation where if the scum do kill the cop the town gets no investigation?OhGodMyLife wrote: If Yos wants to go ahead and assume Michel will be lynched and take the cop ability, thats just fine by me.-
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OhGodMyLife Silent But Deadly
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OhGodMyLife Silent But Deadly
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_your_basevollkan wrote:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HubrisOhGodMyLife wrote:Hell yes I predicted the Vollkan vigging.
Bow-chicka-bow-wow
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OhGodMyLife Silent But Deadly
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Ojanen is town. This I am sure of. Vollkan has had a pretty consistent low level of suspicion for a long time now, both here and in the accounting thread, so the only way he'd be the one making the kill with a tracker in the mix is if both of his scummates were more heavily suspected. Thus, Yos/Michel.-
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OhGodMyLife Silent But Deadly
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Maybe I'm conflating my own low level suspicions with the town's, or what was being said in the accounting thread with the main thread. I'm pretty sure there was some rumblings of "There's something off with Vollkan" somewhere for a good long while.Goat wrote:I'll have to go back and check, but I think at the time I tracked him nobody was suspicious of him at all.
Nonetheless, the point of "the other members of the scumteam must be more suspicious than Voll" still stands, and that still equal Yos/Michel.-
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OhGodMyLife Silent But Deadly
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Hoo lordy.Great, great game Goat, and Yos and CKD as well. Vollkan, carry on all you want about hubris and mission accomplished, but you were clearly the weakest link on that scumteam, and you're lucky you had three much more proactive partners steering conversation.
Don't count on squirming out of a lynch next time though Yos, I've got your number now
This was a really well put together game design, and I loved the flavor, but I think four scum out of fourteen players was very unbalanced. With no real inherent power roles and the possibility of scum interference at every level of the assigned power roles usage, there was just no way I saw that coming.-
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OhGodMyLife Silent But Deadly
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I've put in some well deserved scummy nominations for this game, all those who were as outclassed as I was should go agree with me.-
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OhGodMyLife Silent But Deadly
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