Phables: Death Note Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #115 (isolation #0) » Fri Jun 05, 2009 8:35 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

I love it when I leave for work and a game hasn't started yet and then I come back to 5 pages. :roll:
Benmage wrote:i feel lost with this mastin thing...so i'ma still rvs

Vote Kairyuu
for not paying child support
Choosing RVS over the elephant in the room in scummy.

Vote Benmage

Mastin wrote:I imagine the connection is rather obvious. Shinigami have to have a deathnote. Anyone watching the anime would know this. Losing it via lynching/night-kills would devastate them, making me think they'd instantly lose.
Simple logic, really.
Ryuk wouldn't exactly be upset losing his Death Note. He is amused by humans using it to kill each other.

*Awaits "OMG KMD KNOWS THE FLAVOR FOR ONCE?!?"*

Mastin should be killed by either a vig or scum or something. Magnus and Lamont don't come off as scum. Let's start the Benmage wagon now.

GOGOGOGOGO.
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Post Post #194 (isolation #1) » Sat Jun 06, 2009 7:23 am

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Benmage wrote: I signed in to see the rvs 'over' thats no fun, plus i only had time than to skim, and i wanted to post. Trying to wagon already...scummy
FoS Kmd
No. You came on and saw serious stuff and didn't know how to respond in a townie way, so you took the easy way out and jokevoted instead.

What is scummy about an early bandwagon in a large game?
ZazieR wrote:P.S. If you know somebody who is under 'her spell', the way to free them is to vote them, like
Vote Kmd

Good luck ♥
zzzzzzzz....huh? what? Where am I?

Oh, hi.
PhilyEc wrote: That is tripe. No one is obvtown on page 2. Mastin, stfu, you're spamming way too much content and thats not a good idea for a 26 player game.

Mastin could easily be lying since thats basically the safest claim one can make. Not only that, a true shinigami wouldn't claim so quickly. He claims he did it to lure out scum but the game hadn't even gotten active yet. Mastin = Bullshiter/Stupid Gambiter. Any vigs out there, do murder him, dont know how that works since its an NK but meh.

[onto page 3]
Not sure why, but this post pinged my gut.

I think it's the first two lines.

-------------------------------------

I'm at post 134 (for my own reference later) and leaving to go golfing. I'll finish catching up when I'm home.
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Post Post #270 (isolation #2) » Sat Jun 06, 2009 12:48 pm

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So much posting...

I'll try to catch up after work tonight.
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Post Post #303 (isolation #3) » Sat Jun 06, 2009 7:56 pm

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ZazieR wrote: Also, as long as a Death Note is not destroyed, the Shinigami will be able to survive. Everyone who has seen/read Death Note knows this. Losing it, doesn't affect them.
And explain the LaL bit.
Rem could tell you another way to kill a Shinigami. :wink:
ZazieR wrote: Don't like this vote as Kevin barely mentioned what was discussed.
And why do you want Mastin to be killed during the night? Why not a lynch?
I think Mastin is more distracting than scummy. I'd like him dead, but I don't want to use a lynch on him. I actually don't see him as scum right now.
Benmage wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote: No. You came on and saw serious stuff and didn't know how to respond in a townie way, so you took the easy way out and jokevoted instead.
This is just false.
Well you obviously won't admit that, but it's my theory.
Benmage wrote: I in no way acted scummy and barely even posted, and you wanted to wagon. Definitely a scummy idea imo.
Don't you think that bandwagon would have given us some juicy information?
Mastin wrote:Hmm, can't seem to find it on a skim. Might've been someone else, but SOMEONE said in 760 that it was best to just lynch Jesters, anyway.
:lol:

That's what a jester would say.
zwetschenwasser wrote: Look at KMD's behavior in Paris Mafia. He has become a role model for jesters, and a convenient way for scum to WIFOM the town out of lynching them. I call BS on Mastin's assertion that he plays this way at the start of games, as I've never seen him be this completely gutsy and over-the-top random. IT'S TOO SCUMMY TO BE TOO SCUMMY TO BE TOWN.
You referenced one of the most fun games I've ever played in. I mean, how many people can CLAIM JESTER, convince the town that it is best to lynch the jester in a game where lynching the two jesters ends the game, and STILL get lynched. Oh, and throw in some fun. Yeah, that was fun though.

I see your point though. Mastin is kind of starting out how I did there. Very scummy at the start. People will back off because they are scared he's a jester. He'll act protown, but not too much. He'll start getting scummy. And we'll lynch him. That is,
if
he is actually a jester playing how I did in Paris Mafia.
Benmage wrote: Could you link this Paris Mafia?
I'll go get it after this post if Zwet hasn't yet.

So. Zazie and Lamont are town. Magnus is probably town. Benmage is scum. Mastin isn't scum, but could be third party. My vote is staying on Benmage for now.
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Post Post #304 (isolation #4) » Sat Jun 06, 2009 7:58 pm

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By the way, this is the game where I played amazingly as a jester. Where I claimed jester and made the town and scum both think it was best for them to lynch me.
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Post Post #407 (isolation #5) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 6:33 am

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It's sad when I have to view myself in isolation to know where to start reading from.
ZazieR wrote: As for metaing (Yes, it's a word >.< Say it's not, and you'll feel the consequences :twisted:)
It's not.

*Runs*
ZazieR wrote:
Lamont wrote:
Two
Three factions are developing:

1) The Mastin Jackassery Fan Club
2) Logical Mafia Players
3) The Misa Misa haters
Fixed, as I'm not part of either 1 or 2 :D.
You fit into 2.
Spolium wrote:@Zaz

- are you misa misa y/n? BE HONEST.
Why are you asking for a character claim already?
Gelus wrote:
Mastin is suddenly shot down in a spurt of gunfire that resembles hail, only deadlier. Upon examining his bullet-riddled corpse, you find a badge. After wiping away as much blood as you can, you see that it reads
Raye Penber
.

All votes have been reset. With 25 alive, it's 13 to lynch.

Carry on!
No role reveal? Just the name? Does the green indicate town alignment?
Benmage wrote:Lol…your theory vs my knowledge.
Well, neither of us can prove one way or the other.
Benmage wrote:No, not yet and not from me.
I disagree.
Benmage wrote:Mwahaha, you can never get a correct read on me can you?
I was wrong once. We'll see.
Lamont wrote:Hmmm, I just googled the wiki. It says that Penber is a FBI agent who is chasing down the Kira.
Raye Penber was an FBI agent. One of (is it 8 or 9?) agents who went to Japan from the U.S. Light actually came face to face with Penber and killed him and all of the other agents. L investigated further and concluded that Kira was on the bus with Penber. He was correct. This was probably the biggest issue for a lot of the early investigation. Up until Light and Misa's confinement probably.
Benmage wrote:Yeah but he was day vig'd than as suggested, and coulda been lynched...bad play imo, if he was cop why not try and stay off radar a little and get some investigations in.

Bad play imo.
What makes you think he was a cop? There are at least 15 characters who fit as cop in Death Note.
Lamont_Cranston wrote:Really, Zee? With crap play like that I would suspect more mafi off the wagon than on...
Really? Scum don't jump on bad play? I usually do as scum.

Then again, with only 5 players on the wagon, you're probably right that most scum were off it.
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Post Post #416 (isolation #6) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 7:10 am

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Spolium wrote:
KMD wrote:Why are you asking for a character claim already?
Zaz seems awfully preoccupied with Misa Misa. I didn't think she'd claim Misa but wanted a straight answer for the record.
Unvote, Vote Spolium


I want to make it clear that I am against name claims in this game.

I just realized that to use a death note, you need someone's name and face. So in this game, it's possible that the scum kill by knowing your name. I don't know about everyone else, but you won't be getting a name claim from me until this is proven to be false.
ZazieR wrote:@Kevin

Your punishment for both statements regarding me in post 407 :twisted:

And I liked Penber's fiance more :)
It took me forever to open that link because of my computer. It would be much more convenient to post it as an image. :lol: (laughing because of the irony, not because I'm joking in any way)

And yeah, she was going to figure Light out. He HAD to kill her. And it was a turning point because that combined with the FBI agents is where Light decided to kill not only criminals, but people who are trying to catch him as well.
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Post Post #424 (isolation #7) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 7:33 am

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ZazieR wrote: Seriously though, it's something which can be a possibility, but if it's the case, how will the scum kill when they don't have a name?

As for the link, the mod asked to link instead of posting the image.
Maybe they can't. One way to find out.

I know about links. That was why I posted the " :lol: " smiley at the fact that I can't usually get links to open, but I see images just fine.
Spolium wrote: That's an interesting point, but if that limitation were in place then scum wouldn't be able to perform kills unless they (a) posessed a death note (not a given) AND (b) knew a player's name.

If that's how the death notes work then scum are going to have a hard time, no? It's a highly unlikely scenario.
A harder time than town will have destorying death notes?
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Post Post #431 (isolation #8) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 8:56 am

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Spolium, are you against my suggestion that no one name claims?

Kise, I don't understand why you are so sure that the green meant "review" and not "town". Elaborate please. You even later point out to Lamont that "his name's green" to signify alignment.
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Post Post #436 (isolation #9) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 9:05 am

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Benmage, Penber fits as several roles. I'm not going to speculate on what he was just based on a rolename.
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Post Post #438 (isolation #10) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 9:06 am

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Kise wrote: Ahh, OK. So then you're saying that Gelus updated every page's vote count by making Mastin's name green AFTER Mastin was killed & confirmed as town? Thanks, it makes sense.
I don't know why he did that. I also don't know what the green meant.
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Post Post #440 (isolation #11) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 9:14 am

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Mod, why is Mastin's name green in the vote counts. Also, was he modkilled or did he die in a game-related way?

His name is green to signify that he was town-aligned. He was not modkilled (modkills will be announced).


No reason to speculate when you can just ask.
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Post Post #446 (isolation #12) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 9:48 am

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You may want to change that sig to avoid breaking the rule about talking out of thread.
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Post Post #466 (isolation #13) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 11:24 am

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mykonian wrote: I claimed cop in a game too, but I didn't get modkilled. A mod who can't take a roleclaim, is a bad mod. And guess what, that is not true for who are modding this game. Crappy reason, to further assume on only this that Mastin is town, and continue from that.
QFT x100

Claiming scum for strategical purposes should not be against the rules. WIFOM comes from people doing things that would make sense at some times, but not in others. Maybe a scum wouldn't do something, so a scum does it. WIFOM helps if you know how to use it. I've seen games where a scum going down claims "buddies" and the whole game turns into "was he telling the truth?!?" It's strategy. It distracts from anything other than finding out if the scum was telling the truth. Of course optimal town play is to ignore the last words of scum creating WIFOM, but MS will never learn that if Mods don't let them. I believe I've posted this rant in MD. This rant may not be reproduced in any way without expressed written consent of Kmd or the two people on SA who made this clear to him.[/rant]

(I also dislike the "don't try to break the game through hypoclaim, etc." rule as that's another strategy, but I won't go into that.)

Obviously, I'll still honor the rules whether I agree with them or not.
Kise wrote: Rules are there for a reason. The rules in this game state that you are not permitted to make any kind of RC, NC, or hints that would blatantly confirm your position.
Where do you see this?
Kise wrote: Just because you claimed cop in another game and got away with it does not mean that the same prohibitions applied in that game. It's common to be allowed to RC in most games, but HERE, in Death Note Mafia, the rules say not to do anything that will break the game.
Shit, you're right.

Mod, are we allowed to roleclaim, name claim, massclaim, or counterclaim?
The strategies I listed are all strategies that have been used to break games in the past.

Yes to all.

Stephoscope wrote:But I admit I don't think I understand what a "hypoclaim" is.
Everybody says "If I am a cop, I investigated X and Y on Nights 1 and 2 and will investigate Z on Night 3. Here are my results." Then when a cop dies, we have their results. This works with other roles too, not just cop. I've seen it used for a hider. Maybe in a future game, you'll see it executed successfully. :wink:
Kise wrote:Nah, here's the rule that states you are not permitted to do most forms of claiming. Gelus pretty much does not want you to say what you are, NOR what you aren't in this game.
Gelus wrote:
Rules and Information
  • You may not use cryptoclaims, hypoclaims, prearranged ciphers, or any other concerted attempt to break the game.
Here's an article that can further explain what some of this means:
Crytoclaims[/url]
This sounds like it includes breadcrumbs and softclaims...

I'm gonna wait for Mod clarification before I comment further.

As far as the game itself, I'm still suspicious of Spolium for namefishing Zazie in a game where the theme is based on an anime where a notebook kills someone if you know just their face and their name. I'm still suspicious of Benmage for his acknowledging the Mastin situation, but deciding to jokevote instead. I still say NO NAMECLAIMS whether the rules allow it or not. And I still hope I can keep up with the fast pace of this game.
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Post Post #468 (isolation #14) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 11:32 am

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I asked about the green. We are still waiting for clarification.
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Post Post #471 (isolation #15) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:08 pm

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PhilyEc wrote:
Mastin's death confirmed my theory that Deathnote's are being used.
I'd say the people talking at the moment are in ownership of one and that Mastin has been killed.
I doubt anyone wouldn't get involved in a game like this and just sit back then deathnote to be honest. I for one would talk, act suprised when Mastin died, even pissed off. Bitch about him perhaps.
What led you to believe the bolded?

The italicized, why do you think scum killed Mastin?
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Post Post #473 (isolation #16) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:17 pm

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PhilyEc wrote: Mastin would've died instantly if he was modkilled. Gelus would decide the second he was the issue, he ignored it cause it was a lie ( I think).
1. Deathnotes are going to kill in this game, the great thing about them is that all you need is a pen and you wont get noticed, killing at the dead of night offers no advantage so I think deathnoters can kill day and night. (Just like in the anime) ^-^
2. Well I sure as hell would've, hes been very annoying. I'd say someone did it for personal reasons rather than as scum strategy. Hence why I'm looking at people who didnt approve of how he hijacked the beginning of the game.
What if he was reviewing like people have discussed? Maybe the decision wasn't made right away. Note that I don't actually think it was a modkill. I'm just curious why you made the leap from "Mastin is dead" to "Masting was killed by a Death Note".

1. Makes perfect sense. But again, why do you think a Death Note killed Mastin?

2. So it could have been a town/SK kill and not scum? Or you think scum used a kill for personal reasons?
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Post Post #480 (isolation #17) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:49 pm

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PhilyEc wrote: Doubt town has vigs due to character lists in the game. I think the SK's are the scum.
Wouldn't Mello fit as a vig?

Wouldn't it make sense for Light and Misa to be working together?
Spolium wrote: Given the flexible cause of death via death notes in the series I wouldn't discount it as unlikely until we're better informed.
I agree with this. Someone with a death note can choose the means of death. "Shot" is a likely choice for someone trying not to give that away. That doesn't mean it was a death note though. Maybe, maybe not. We simply don't know.
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Post Post #482 (isolation #18) » Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:53 pm

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Spolium wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:Wouldn't it make sense for Light and Misa to be working together?
And/or Yatsuba Group ;)
Exactly. Although I'm pretty sure that's spelled wrong. :wink:
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Post Post #632 (isolation #19) » Mon Jun 08, 2009 9:31 am

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Wow guys. I came home from work, went to bed, and woke up and we are on Page 25 now. This is too fast paced...
ZazieR wrote: Not entirely true...
First reason: Misa Misa *shrug* She still has many fanboys in her posession. They'd do anything to please her, even teling their names (and place of living obv as well >.<) This is why Misa Misa is dangerous and should be stopped :mad:
First serious reason: Investigation roles. The names of the characters are our role names. So it's likely that the scum have a role that can find out our rolenames.
Second serious reason: this

However, it's said in the rules that there could be no Kira's, so I think that the scum have a different way of killing, and that if they posess a Death Note, that they have another (extra?) killing method.

P.S. My Misa Misa reason was not serious, but she must still die!!!
RAWR
Actually, it would make sense that Misa would be a namecop because she has the eyes.

I still say we shouldn't nameclaim and make their jobs any easier though.
ortolan wrote: Kmd's 416: why is he ignoring LC v.s. Kise? Several players on page 17 seem to be doing this.
I have town reads on both players. More on Lamont than Kise though.
Lamont_Cranston wrote: Can you please clarify this? Please tell me it didn't happen because of his death... :?
Actually, yeah. Light killed Penber for information. Took out the rest of the FBI team with him.
Starbuck wrote: QFT. He may be a cop as a character in the manga/show, but he probably was not a cop as per mafia game standards or it would have been said. Also his character name was in green, which last I knew was the universal color here for Townies.
No, the game is partial reveal. All we know is that he was town. We don't know his role.
Lamont_Cranston wrote:
Lamont_Cranston wrote:
@ Kai:
What are your reads on
Spoilum
&
Philly
?
@KMD:
Same.
Spolium, scum, hence the vote. Phily, actually my gut says scum but I have nothing on him.
mykonian wrote:
Spolium wrote:
Budja wrote:I thought exactly the same as myk when I saw Mastin's claim. A shinigami with a death-note would be very foolish to claim.
Why would a Shinigami with a deathnote be very foolish to claim, Budja?
scumslip. Really, it won't get more obvious.
unvote vote Spolium
What is the slip?
mykonian wrote: It doesn't seem to me that he understands that we have to destroy deathnotes, and if he was town, he would know that was his wincondition.
I don't see it.
populartajo wrote: Kmd4390 -> Gut tells me Kevin is antitown in this game. Will hunt for quotes to back up this feeling. I think it was his first post where he attacks Benmage for dodging the theme when he was doing the same. Tempting vote.
FOS
Really? If I remember correctly, I never even random voted in this game.

And since when do you use my first name? :lol:
Benmage wrote:
populartajo wrote: What do you think of KMD, Ben?
He is just jealous.
pfffffffffffftttt.

Seriously, this game is going way too fast...
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Post Post #649 (isolation #20) » Mon Jun 08, 2009 11:46 am

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zwetschenwasser wrote:FYI, I was a one sided
lover
with Mastin, though I only knew his rolename, not his identity. Because of his death I have gained the power to track people at night.
Why are you still alive?

If you are fakeclaiming for fun, stop. Now.
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Post Post #652 (isolation #21) » Mon Jun 08, 2009 11:57 am

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Stephoscope wrote:What is your reason for coming out with this roleclaim?
I second this question and I don't think I believe Zwet.
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Post Post #657 (isolation #22) » Mon Jun 08, 2009 12:34 pm

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Pretty sure Zwet is lying.
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Post Post #663 (isolation #23) » Mon Jun 08, 2009 2:04 pm

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Stephoscope wrote:Kmd and ZEEnon: If zwet is lying, what do you think his alignment is?
No read yet.
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Post Post #731 (isolation #24) » Tue Jun 09, 2009 8:25 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Kise wrote:
Gorrad wrote:I'd also like to throw out (to see what people think) the possibility of a mass flavor-claim.
I want to say GTFO.. but first let me ask what do you really think will be achieved by us doing this?
HOLY SHIT I MISSED THIS.

Guys, I found another scum. Gorrad.
mykonian wrote: As far as I know, there were 3 death gods in the story. 2 of them had death notes, 1 was looking for his/hers. Just to say that the story points at the fact that death-gods have likely a deathnote. (that was the point of his reasoning that I tried to discuss)
Light ended up with Ryuk's. Misa ended up with Rem's. Yes, they got passed around quite a bit, but that's how they ended up in the human world. Then Sidoh's ended up with Mello and he wanted it back. Every Shinigami
has
a death note. Sometimes, they end up with humans.
Starbuck wrote:
mykonian wrote:BTW, you guys are saying zwet made up this fakeclaim? He is a bit late (or early) with his claim, but I don't think that we should lynch him. He would be a tracker (=helpful), and the theme supports it. We should at least try to get results out of him.
But does he read scum for you?

Why, if that is the case, would you willingly not vote for him?
I thought it was quite clear that this is the opposite of what Myko was saying.
ortolan wrote: Kmd, why do you think zwet is lying but still have a neutral read of him? Whatever happened to lynch all liars?
Did I want to lynch Mastin when he was obviously lying?
Lamont_Cranston wrote:
@All:
What is the case for scum starting out with death notes? Is there
any
actual reason to believe this?
It's possible. Light and Misa got their Notes very early and maintained them for a long time. Higuchi also was basically unimportant until he got his.
Lamont_Cranston wrote: Umm, OK then why is
Budja
hung up on
control
of a person required to produce a death note kill...
A Death Note allows you to control a person before you kill them.
PhilyEc wrote:
Kmd4390
<- "I'd like him dead, but I don't want to use a lynch on him." on Mastin, makes me suspect him since he said Mastin wasnt scum in this post. Thinks "Benmage is scum" over something bout elephants in the RVS, keeps his vote from then. Scum read on him.
I wanted Mastin dead because he was annoying and seemed to be either fakeclaiming as town or he was a third party role. I didn't want to lynch him because I didn't think he was scum.

Benmage acknowledged Mastin, offered no opinion, and jokevoted.
PhilyEc wrote:
Kairyuu
<- Has a good town-dar in my opinion, inclined to see him as town for now.
How is having a good "town-dar" a town tell?
Spolium wrote: This thought just came to me - Zwet has claimed one-sided lover/tracker. This seems to fit [url=http://[POSSIBLEtinyurlSPAM].com/shinigami-rem]Rem the Shinigami[/url] much better than Raye Penber's fiance. Thoughts?
Actually. It does.

Rem is in love with Misa, who is obviously in love with Light.
PhilyEc wrote: The fiance and him were really close and an important part of the story. Hes actually claimed a character that can be crossed checked or counter claimed and with the fact that Raye is in this game,
she has to be
. Its like putting salt and pepper on a dinner table.

Zwet is telling the truth.
First of all, why does she have to be in the game? Second of all, if she is, it would be stupid for her to counter claim a name.
ZazieR wrote:@Kevin and ZEE

Why did/do both of you think that zwet is lying?
Just seems to be. And he's Zwet, so he's lying until proven otherwise.
ZazieR wrote: Well, this was the case in the serie:
The first shinigami had actually two Death Notes. His own, and the one he 'got'. One of these was given to Light.
Later, came the second shinigami into the game. However, she also had two Death Notes. One was given to Misa Misa *shrug*, the second she kept herself.
Last was Ducky, who came to the human world to search for his.
So if this game follows this line, the scum have in total two, two shinigami's have a death note each and the last shinigami is searching for his.

However, there were other shinigami's mentioned as well, though all those didn't play a big part.
What? They only had one Note each, not two.
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Post Post #733 (isolation #25) » Tue Jun 09, 2009 8:31 am

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ZazieR wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
ZazieR wrote:@Kevin and ZEE

Why did/do both of you think that zwet is lying?
Just seems to be. And he's Zwet, so he's lying until proven otherwise.
But don't you think it fits the flavour of the serie?
Not sure.
ZazieR wrote: Nope. Ryuk had his own and the one from some other shinigami.
Rem had her own and the one from Gelus.
Ok, never knew that..
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Post Post #742 (isolation #26) » Tue Jun 09, 2009 9:46 am

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ZazieR wrote: But I'm not sure what happened to each of the Death Notes in the end...
NO SPOILERS PLEASE.

(I didn't read magnus's post because he quoted this)
PhilyEc wrote: And actually a counter claim would let us know Zwet or X is scum. This is something I'd reveal if someone lied about being me. Finds us scum afterall.
Not necessarily. He could be lying as town. And did he actually claim his character or was this assumed.
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Post Post #749 (isolation #27) » Tue Jun 09, 2009 10:22 am

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PhilyEc wrote: So now we have to take into account a town commiting anti-town acts on purpose and letting destruction ensue? I really wouldn't include the possibility of him lying as town. Zwet aint an idiot.
He isn't?

I've seen him:
-Fakeclaim in Medieval Mafia as town
-Claim role flavor IN AN OPEN GAME that didn't exist
-lie about a post restriction (I wasn't in the game, but I saw it)

There's probably a lot more, but that's off the top of my head.
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Post Post #755 (isolation #28) » Tue Jun 09, 2009 10:30 am

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Lamont_Cranston wrote:You forgot the Robot Chicken when he claimed Death Miller as scum :D
Wait, he was scum? :lol:
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Post Post #760 (isolation #29) » Tue Jun 09, 2009 10:45 am

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mykonian wrote:Lets let WIFOM solve this?
What do you mean by this?
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Post Post #765 (isolation #30) » Tue Jun 09, 2009 11:06 am

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populartajo wrote: This resoning progress doesnt feel right. In the first two posts, zwet is pretty much sure of his claim. But when asked, he quickly backs it off. Now, if he fakeclaimed he did it for a reason (Medieval Mafia is an example of this) but which is the reason here when he backs it off when he gets a little pressure_? It just doesnt feel zwettown.
You mean Medieval where he said he was looking for reactions and never said what he took from the reactions?
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Post Post #769 (isolation #31) » Tue Jun 09, 2009 11:09 am

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mykonian wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
mykonian wrote:Lets let WIFOM solve this?
What do you mean by this?
I think I'm not the only one confused about zwet. I want to see him tomorrow around too.
Are you saying we should keep him alive because of uncertainty? What does WIFOM have to do with this?
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Post Post #771 (isolation #32) » Tue Jun 09, 2009 11:18 am

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mykonian wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
mykonian wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
mykonian wrote:Lets let WIFOM solve this?
What do you mean by this?
I think I'm not the only one confused about zwet. I want to see him tomorrow around too.
Are you saying we should keep him alive because of uncertainty? What does WIFOM have to do with this?
Do I have to spell out everything here?

Because the lie could just as easily be the part where he says it to be a fakeclaim. To take that chance, I want him here, tomorrow.
So you don't know if you believe him when he says he fakeclaimed and for that reason, you want him alive tomorrow?

:?
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Post Post #780 (isolation #33) » Tue Jun 09, 2009 12:40 pm

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mykonian wrote:KMD, think about it: he claims, a believable claim, a night kill target, on a terrible moment. Scum wouldn't even think about doing it, so it is a zwet action. After getting some accusations about it, he claims it to be a fakeclaim...

why?

is the theory where he actually is what he claimed not just as likely?
I think it's just Zwet being stupid. I'd rather just ingore it.
populartajo wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
populartajo wrote: This resoning progress doesnt feel right. In the first two posts, zwet is pretty much sure of his claim. But when asked, he quickly backs it off. Now, if he fakeclaimed he did it for a reason (Medieval Mafia is an example of this) but which is the reason here when he backs it off when he gets a little pressure_? It just doesnt feel zwettown.
You mean Medieval where he said he was looking for reactions and never said what he took from the reactions?
IIRC, zwet thought TSQ was scum for his reactions to his fakeclaim. He wasnt that wrong.
I don't remember that. I remember him basically saying, "well, that brought reactions. Enjoy!"
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Post Post #884 (isolation #34) » Wed Jun 10, 2009 7:57 am

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ZazieR wrote:Actually, I'm not buying that you fake-claimed, zwet.
>.<

Why are people pointing this out if they actually think that?
ZazieR wrote:I already searched for some information there, but something that is likely to be useful for in this game, is not present (as far as I know) in the rules above:
The Death Note page wrote:One of the eyecatch rules of the Shinigami Realm states that only 6 Death Notes can exist in the human realm at any one time.
So, based upon this, there will probably be 1-6 Death Notes present.
More likely is 4-6, based upon the Death Notes that appeared in the serie.
I actually forgot about this. I didn't expect to see more than 6 Notes anyway though.
mykonian wrote: but really, all this is over now, it is a bit useless to keep talking about it.
Not if Zazie thinks your reaction was scummy.
Gorrad wrote:Names only.
Unvote, Vote Gorrad
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Post Post #887 (isolation #35) » Wed Jun 10, 2009 8:05 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Gorrad wrote:What, you'd prefer if I asked for a name and picture claim? : D
I'd prefer if you didn't ask for a name claim in a game with a Theme where your name and face being known by the killer is enough for you to die.
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Post Post #888 (isolation #36) » Wed Jun 10, 2009 8:09 am

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ZazieR wrote: Because we hate circular logic, but scum love it ;) Because a Dutch blonde girl is definitly not stupid to say what she actually thinks about a claim in topic :roll: But they know that that's what I want them to think. However, Misa Misa is so on their side, and she's just stupid enough to let this continue for the scum, so why should I bother to expand on this :D?
Take this hypothetical conversation by Charlie Brown and Peppermint Patty:
Peppermint Patty: Chuck, you're a tracker, aren't you.
Charlie Brown: No.
Peppermint Patty:Yes, you are! Admit it!

Is Peppermint Patty not obviously helping scum here by speculating on Charlie Brown's role?

Zwet says he isn't a tracker. Why should we keep pushing that he is?
ZazieR wrote: What are you saying here? I hope you're not saying what I think you're saying...
I'm saying that there is no reason to ignore his actions if someone sees them as scummy.
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Post Post #890 (isolation #37) » Wed Jun 10, 2009 8:09 am

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Gorrad wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
Gorrad wrote:What, you'd prefer if I asked for a name and picture claim? : D
I'd prefer if you didn't ask for a name claim in a game with a Theme where your name and face being known by the killer is enough for you to die.
You want I should go first as a sign of good faith?
No.
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Post Post #895 (isolation #38) » Wed Jun 10, 2009 8:20 am

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Gorrad wrote:I think the setup is breakable, and I think it makes no sense at all (in a gameplay sense, not a flavor sense) for an anti-town role to have to rely on rolenames to kill, so I'm not worrying about that.
Breaking the setup is against the rules...

They probably have a namecop or something.
ZazieR wrote: Not pushing if he's a tracker or not. But I do want to find out his intentions and it might be something that tells his allignment. So I'm not gonna ignore it.
That's fine, but there's no reason to say he wasn't fakeclaiming if he says he was. He's Zwet. If he gets caught in something, and admits it, he's telling the truth.
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Post Post #902 (isolation #39) » Wed Jun 10, 2009 8:36 am

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Gorrad wrote:KMD, where is it against the rules?
It's there. Read them. Then again, it depends on how you were thinking of breaking it.
Gorrad wrote:I think it would make no sense to need rolename because that would SIGNIFICANTLY cripple any anti-town group. Especially if a hypothetical namecop died.
I'm not going to speculate. All I'm gonna say is I've read Death Note and do NOT plan to name claime.
Gorrad wrote:I think the setup is breakable because think: The number of characters not clearly scum (allied with Light or Mello) is notably small. The SPK, Near's group, L, Watari, Light's family, and a handful of others (Lind L. Taylor, Raye and his SO, and Hideki Ryuga spring to mind). Could YOU get 25 names from that? I know I'd be hard-pressed to do so.
I could get random names from the NPA and stuff. Probably random citizens or whatever too.
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Post Post #910 (isolation #40) » Wed Jun 10, 2009 9:44 am

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WTF ZWET
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Post Post #939 (isolation #41) » Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:43 am

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Jebus wrote:
Jebus wrote:Just when I thought I'd be finished catching up, you guys post six more pages...
Really, let me catch up D: D: D:

Currently 34/38 - and skimming up as fast as I can.
You have 4 more pages. I'm gonna go to work and come home to 6-7 pages. Just post opinions on what you have read. Zwet isn't the only one who should have learned from Medieval.
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Post Post #968 (isolation #42) » Wed Jun 10, 2009 5:21 pm

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Kise wrote:I think everyone else should wait for Jebus, ZEEnon, Kairyuu & possibly Lamont to post. It's only fair that we let them catch up, since they have jobs/school and aren't losers like the rest of us, sitting around in grandma's basement. They might be better in helping this game progress, so I'll be one to wait.
The only problem with intentionally not posting is that it can cause the game to stall. I think everyone should expect that a game this size will move quickly.

And I have a job too, but I've been able to keep up for the most part.
zwetschenwasser wrote:Fakeclaiming in medieval helped town to win by nabbing TSQ. So I don't think that was a good anti-fakeclaim example.
No, he (Rogue) was lynched after I flipped scum because he was connected to me. Everyone thought he was obvtown until that.
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Post Post #1028 (isolation #43) » Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:32 pm

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ZazieR wrote: Do you have a problem that Zwet told that his claim was real? And if so, why?
Also, what's your opinion of his claim now?
Yes. He should have kept quiet so he wouldn't be a NK target.

I think he's really a tracker. I don't like him claiming now though.
Lamont_Cranston wrote:The following people said we should not vote Mastin b/c it is useless or some derivation thereof:

Budja -- "its a waste if he's unkillable"
ABR -- "he's prob jester lets vote elsewhere"
Kise -- "doesn't like random note drop if he's lynched"

Those are three that I have in my notes. I feel I could find more if I looked harder...
You forgot me. I didn't want to lynch Mastin because I didn't think he was scum.

Can someone bullet-point the case on Myko please?
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Post Post #1089 (isolation #44) » Fri Jun 12, 2009 7:12 am

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Lamont_Cranston wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
Lamont_Cranston wrote:The following people said we should not vote Mastin b/c it is useless or some derivation thereof:

Budja -- "its a waste if he's unkillable"
ABR -- "he's prob jester lets vote elsewhere"
Kise -- "doesn't like random note drop if he's lynched"

Those are three that I have in my notes. I feel I could find more if I looked harder...
You forgot me. I didn't want to lynch Mastin because I didn't think he was scum.
Yes, as I said my notes are not perfect and I knew it. I have noticed you've received some flak from a few people and I didn't understand why. For the same reason you thought Mastin was town, he needed to be gone.
Yeah, I wanted him dead. Just not lynched. That happened, so it worked out. I didn't think he was town though. I thought he was 3rd party OR town. Just not scum.
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Post Post #1096 (isolation #45) » Fri Jun 12, 2009 9:48 am

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Jebus wrote:Been busy - sorry for flaking to start off with, currently on 40/44 - you guys post too fast >.<
POST OPINIONS ON THE FIRST 40
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Post Post #1111 (isolation #46) » Fri Jun 12, 2009 5:07 pm

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magnus_orion wrote::evil:
NO!
No "post opinions on the first 40."
We want people caught up, participating with up-to-date information, so we can get accurate reads and bring overall activity of all involved people up.
What part of "stop posting" don't you people understand?
Jeez, if you have something to bring up, put it in a notepad file, save it, and bring it up when everyone is caught up.
Dude, Jebus is one of the people catching up. His opinions can only help.
Lamont_Cranston wrote:That's right I can vouch for that; I saw him do it in Medieval Mafia.
He was town in Medieval. He kind of did seem to be stalling to avoid having to post though.
PhilyEc wrote: I'll put it this way. In any game I was in with Jebus, HE NEVER CONTRIBUTED. I'm considering the idea that he actually does this to fuck with people right now but I'm assuming hes signed up for a game hes too busy to take part in. This seems to have been the case in EVERY GAME though.
He was active in Kirby Mafia. Ok, he never gave a real opinion and was lynched for that, but he was in the game. And he was kind of active in a game that is ongoing now, but eventually faded and I believe was replaced (maybe he was lynched).
Kise wrote: And if english isn't Myk's 1st language, then how does he know when to use big words like 'subjective'???
It isn't. I know this. His English is good enough that it's hard to believe (the same can be said for pretty much every scummer whose first langauge isn't English), but it's true.
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Post Post #1132 (isolation #47) » Sat Jun 13, 2009 4:29 am

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Unvote, Vote ZEEnon


I'd much prefer Spolium or Gorrad, but of the top choices, ZEE is the best.
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Post Post #1134 (isolation #48) » Sat Jun 13, 2009 4:44 am

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mykonian wrote:why those two? spolium has actually added something.

I can see gorrad, seems to be a lurker.
Both were fishing for role names.
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Post Post #1171 (isolation #49) » Sat Jun 13, 2009 7:37 pm

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zwetschenwasser wrote:Don't you see I'm trying to get the scum into a WIFOM gambit about killing me tonight? I don't want them to know if I'm a tracker or not, so I'm fakeclaiming and fakeclaiming about fakeclaiming to confuse them.
I'm a daytime rolecop and I see that the scum win if they kill you tonight. :lol:

(Anyone who interprets that as a real claim on my part is seriously dumb btw.)

On a serious note, Lamont, ABR, and Zwet are all town.
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Post Post #1173 (isolation #50) » Sat Jun 13, 2009 7:54 pm

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Stephoscope wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:On a serious note, Lamont, ABR, and Zwet are all town.
I think you're town and I think Lamont and Zwet are town, but how do you figure ABR?
His intentions seem protown. He wants Zwet dead because Zwet brings chaos which hurts the town. He didn't want to lynch Mastin because Mastin was obviously not scum. Although that is a small inconsistency now that I think about it.

ABR, do you think Zwet is scum? If not, then why not lynch Mastin for the same reasons as you want Zwet dead?
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Post Post #1196 (isolation #51) » Sun Jun 14, 2009 6:40 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Ort, I've never played with ABR.

How are those town reads obvious when Zwet and Lamont are getting votes and ABR still needs to explain the difference between his position on Mastin and his position on Zwet.

Gorrad is scummy for name-fishing.

---------------------------

Unvote, Vote Gorrad
. Reading the last couple pages, this lynch may have some hope. People seem to suspect him more than I thought.
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Post Post #1263 (isolation #52) » Mon Jun 15, 2009 5:54 pm

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PhilyEc wrote: Lets lynch scummy people first. Zwet can get investigated tonight~ Doubt theres no investigators here seeing as how the game is full of cops.
How about we let the power roles do what they want to do instead of what Phily wants them to do.
PhilyEc wrote:No, Gorrad isnt scum. Kmd thinks he is and everyones riding that notion.
Yes he is.
PhilyEc wrote:He pushed for name claims hoping to break the game. Thats it. Scum wouldnt do that, scum wouldnt make such an obvious move. He was later told what that would make killing people off more easy for scum concerning knowing roles and he gave us an 'ooooooooooooh' basically. Gorrad aint scum.
So you believe him that he thought a mass name claim would break the game. That's the difference. I don't.
LlamaFluff wrote: I realized something too that should be benificial if we get to late game. When someone is lynched, their note goes to a random person on the wagon. Town destroys notes. If we lynch pro-kira and their note is not destroyed, there must be scum on the wagon.
Valuable info.
Gorrad wrote: One thing to dispell those who think I may have a win condition to get name claims: Would a name claim-suggesting WC not be against the no game breaking rule? It's very presence means that said WC cannot exist.
:facepalm:

Are you familiar with the theme?
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Post Post #1264 (isolation #53) » Mon Jun 15, 2009 6:02 pm

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Jebus wrote:Same. I checked here less than 24 hours ago, and come back to eight pages (after I just spent a while catching up in another game D

Will be caught up soon...
Jebus wrote:Prod received, I've been actively trying to catch up (currently page 19/26)

Be posting in a little bit...
Jebus wrote:Just when I thought I'd be finished catching up, you guys post six more pages...

So ugh, I'm on 26/32 now.
Jebus wrote:Really, let me catch up D: D: D:

Currently 34/38 - and skimming up as fast as I can.
Jebus wrote:Been busy - sorry for flaking to start off with, currently on 40/44 - you guys post too fast >.<
Jebus wrote:Still lagging behind - 46/49 (three pages left )

Please don't post any more so I can catch up before there's another ten pages D:
Jebus wrote:Finishing readup, will be done in a minute or two...
Love how he's always almost done reading and about to post.

JEBUS, IN YOUR NEXT POST, GIVE AN OPINION ON SOMEONE OR REQUEST REPLACEMENT.
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Post Post #1343 (isolation #54) » Tue Jun 16, 2009 9:06 am

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I'll read these 4 pages when I get a chance.

Still think Gorrad, Spolium, Benmage, and Phily are scum.

Still think ABR, Zwet, and Lamont are town.
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Post Post #1358 (isolation #55) » Tue Jun 16, 2009 3:58 pm

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mykonian wrote:ugh, i'm pretty busy on the moment, but here is a post.

in the last few posts KMD is getting more scummy. Gorrad his post that explained his actions was very reasonable, and I don't see why KMD would still irrationally attack Gorrad. He kind of tunnels on gorrad because names could be important. It seems like scum who has found a point, and after that continues to bring that point, because they are logically right, but wrong in the game.
Have you even read Death Note? My point is obvious and has merit.
populartajo wrote: See my point?
Yep. Wagons can easily grow without even helping us read very many players.

FTR, Gorrad is my top lynch choice. Of the top 3 (myko, lamont, zeenon), I'd prefer to lynch ZEE. If it comes down to Myko or Lamont, I'll vote Myko. Lamont is so townie it's not even funny.
Kairyuu wrote: And yes, I have recruited a good number of rl friends onto this site. magnus, Isacc, madeofphail, Nightwolf, Inquisitor Vulcan Skorn, fallen angel, Bloody bAndana, and blackcatcontract were all recruited by me. Of those, only Isacc, magnus, and fallen angel spend any decent length of time on site anymore.
Heh. I once pushed a case on Isacc while being extremely rude and sarcastic, trying to frustrate him and make him act scummy. Obviously, I was scum in that game. I kinda feel bad about how rough I was on him though. XD
Benmage wrote:My impression of what you are asking was that bolding what i said somehow made him more scummy than what i originally felt.
This is frustrating just to read. It's probably been answered by now, but she was bolding it to point it out. The bolding does nothing more than reference that specific part of the post. She wants to know if the part of your post that she bolded makes Zwet scummy or not.
PhilyEc wrote: You havent even questioned me once on anything dodgy, no one has. Know why? Because I've done nothing scummy. Stop name dropping and give me a case you can think up quickly on me.
Go through my post history and use ctrl+f to search "Phily". There's stuff there.
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Post Post #1360 (isolation #56) » Tue Jun 16, 2009 4:51 pm

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Benmage wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
Benmage wrote:My impression of what you are asking was that bolding what i said somehow made him more scummy than what i originally felt.
This is frustrating just to read. It's probably been answered by now, but she was bolding it to point it out. The bolding does nothing more than reference that specific part of the post. She wants to know if the part of your post that she bolded makes Zwet scummy or not.
Yeah i got it...that was annoying, makes me never want to get into a Q+A with Zazie again.
No, what was frustrating was that you didn't get what the bolding meant. You honestly thought she was saying that bolding it changed something? Come on. It was pretty obvious that she was just referencing that part of the post to ask a question.
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Post Post #1363 (isolation #57) » Tue Jun 16, 2009 5:31 pm

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Dude, Zazie is female.
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Post Post #1393 (isolation #58) » Wed Jun 17, 2009 8:47 am

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Benmage wrote: What the fuck does "why that so is" mean???
"why that is so"

On a game-related note, I'll catch up before work tonight if I get the chance.
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Post Post #1414 (isolation #59) » Wed Jun 17, 2009 1:11 pm

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I didn't get to this. Sorry. I'll catch up soon I hope.
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Post Post #1416 (isolation #60) » Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:06 pm

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Ok, I have an hour more than I thought I did.
PhilyEc wrote:
mykonian - 6 (LlamaFluff, cateraction, Spolium, ortolan, Kise, populartajo)
Lamont_Cranston - 5 (magnus_orion, Kairyuu, Albert B. Rampage, Gorrad, MrBuddyLee)
ZEEnon - 4 (WeyounsLastClone, PhilyEc, Stephoscope, Lamont_Cranston)
^Truely possible lynches for today.
Gorrad - 2 (Kmd4390, Starbuck)
zwetschenwasser - 1 (Benmage)
magnus_orion - 1 (ZazieR)
Jebus - 1 (zwetschenwasser)
^ People who need to unvote and join a wagon.
I've already said that if needed, I can switch to ZEEnon or Myko. No need to do that just yet though.
mykonian wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
mykonian wrote:ugh, i'm pretty busy on the moment, but here is a post.

in the last few posts KMD is getting more scummy. Gorrad his post that explained his actions was very reasonable, and I don't see why KMD would still irrationally attack Gorrad. He kind of tunnels on gorrad because names could be important. It seems like scum who has found a point, and after that continues to bring that point, because they are logically right, but wrong in the game.
Have you even read Death Note? My point is obvious and has merit.
It would also be if you are scum. But the fact that you tunnel on it, and defend it this way, not leaving room for being mistaken, means that you are forcing something.

I have been a little inactive, but it seems today my practicum ends early, so I have a bit of time to read and post something.
If I'm mistaken, then oh well. I was wrong. But if I'm right and we all name claim anyway, that's much worse than just accepting that I was wrong.
Benmage wrote:
ZazieR wrote: It's not.
Those are all the posts in which you misunderstood what I meant.
So elaborate.
If it aint there, i dont get it. for the love of god DONT elaborate...ask someone else to please ask me whatever the you are asking.
Dude, is the part of your post that Zazie bolded a scumtell against (Zwet?) or not? Explain why. That's all she is asking.
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Post Post #1533 (isolation #61) » Fri Jun 19, 2009 6:49 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Yeah...

Vote Gorrad
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Post Post #1548 (isolation #62) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 5:43 am

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zwetschenwasser wrote:
ZazieR wrote:Ok, I''ll have to go soon, but first:

Mod
- Do we get to hear Phily''s rolename?
I think modkills automatically become anonymous neutral survivors.
No. Somebody knew his role. If this was the case, that player would have to replace out. Phily must have actually been a neutral survivor.
ZEEnon wrote: This seems like a horrible excuse to place your vote, Kmd4390.
I'm assuming Misa Amane has a death note therefore she is scum.
I don't see the point of asking someone that question, but I don't see anything particularily wrong with it.
I don't care who the character is, nameclaiming can lead to death if this game fits the theme that way.
ZazieR wrote: Then I''ll assume that he was anti-Kira.
Why?
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Post Post #1554 (isolation #63) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 6:36 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Lamont_Cranston wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
zwetschenwasser wrote:
ZazieR wrote:Ok, I''ll have to go soon, but first:

Mod
- Do we get to hear Phily''s rolename?
I think modkills automatically become anonymous neutral survivors.
No. Somebody knew his role. If this was the case, that player would have to replace out.
Phily must have actually been a neutral survivor.
Could this of been Jebus? Or even ABR(delayed Mod action)?
More likely ABR than Jebus, but it doesn't matter. The player would have to replace out regardless of alignment.
Lamont wrote:With Mastin's crap play it is far too convenient to just claim "Mastin is obvtown".
Maybe if it were actually crap play.
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Post Post #1556 (isolation #64) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 6:52 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

I can disagree no matter how many times people say it.
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Post Post #1563 (isolation #65) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 7:29 am

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There's a difference between "annoying" and "crap".

And I need a link to a game suggesting ZEE is an experienced, quality player. I've seen him in two other games. He was replaced in both.
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Post Post #1574 (isolation #66) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 8:20 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Lamont_Cranston wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:There's a difference between "annoying" and "crap".
In this case I'm having trouble seeing the distinction. There is a connection between "annoying" and "crap" that applies here as well.
Annoying- makes the game less fun. Good to eliminate. In Mastin's case, he didn't read as scum, so eliminating him some way other than a lynch was good.

Crap- Poor play. Bad player. Lowers chances of winning. Hell, not even a bad lynch sometimes even as obvtown. This is NOT Mastin.
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Post Post #1578 (isolation #67) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 9:50 am

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No. Not fix'd. You completely changed the meaning.
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Post Post #1581 (isolation #68) » Sat Jun 20, 2009 9:54 am

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They merged in yours. Not in mine.
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Post Post #1650 (isolation #69) » Mon Jun 22, 2009 6:46 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Unvote, Vote Mykonian


Relatively agreed upon as a Day 1 lynch and I'm ready to end the day.

Votecount
mykonian - 11 (LlamaFluff, cateraction, Kise, Lamont_Cranston, magnus_orion, WeyounsLastClone, ortolan, Stephoscope, Starbuck, zwetschenwasser, Kmd4390)
Lamont_Cranston - 1 (Gorrad)
Not voting: Kairyuu, mykonian, Benmage, ZazieR, Vi, populartajo, MrBuddyLee, Skruffs, semioldguy, Seraphim, ZEEnon, Spolium


LIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGGGGGGGHHHHHHT!


With 24 alive, it's 13 to lynch.
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Post Post #1653 (isolation #70) » Mon Jun 22, 2009 6:58 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Gorrad wrote:Frankly, I don't think the Myk case holds much water. If y'all want to lynch him, so be it, but I wash my hands of it.
"Guys, I had no part in this lynch. Remember that tomorrow, kthx."
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Post Post #1654 (isolation #71) » Mon Jun 22, 2009 6:59 pm

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Unvote, Vote ZEEnon
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Post Post #1656 (isolation #72) » Mon Jun 22, 2009 7:09 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Gorrad,
Gorrad wrote: ZEEnon, on the other hand, is looking more town than I believe I've ever seen him.
why is this your only mention of ZEE? Do you still believe this? If so, why?
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Post Post #1664 (isolation #73) » Mon Jun 22, 2009 7:51 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Gorrad wrote: And yeah, KMD's pretty much summed up my thoughts. The wagon sucks. Tomorrow, regardless of the outcome, I want it remembered that I had no part in it. If y'all want to lynch, be my guest, I won't stop y'all. Obviously y'all see SOMETHING I don't, and maybe y'all are right. But I'm not involved.
Why is a pretty decent player sounding like newbscum....
Starbuck wrote:KMD,

in 1650, you're ready to end the day and in 1654, you votehop to ZEEnon. Why did you switch?
Gorrad is my top suspect and just showed that if he's scum, Myko is town who is about to be lynched and Gorrad doesn't want to be "wrong".
ZazieR wrote:That''s why I only support a policy lynch on one player.
:shock:

Who?
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Post Post #1734 (isolation #74) » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:08 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Lamont, Wey, Stepho, and Starbuck:

What made you switch from ZEEnon to Myko?
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Post Post #1737 (isolation #75) » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:13 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Lamont_Cranston wrote: Ok so I want to commend Llama for a very strong case overall.

The case against Zee and Myk are the same but Myk's is stronger
.

I now am sure that the case against Myk is not just fluff.

Therefore since Llama has a strong town read on Zee,
I'm going to defer to the stronger case
.

There is something wrong with Zee here though. I need meta from him as town to convince me, otherwise there is no way he's town.

Unvote, Vote Myk
So you were following Llama's case?
WeyounsLastClone wrote:Well, I'd still rather see ZEE gone, or Lamont, but myk's is a good option as well.

Unvote. Vote mykonian.
So because Myko's lynch was more likely?
Starbuck wrote:Between ZEE and myk, I don't care which one of them goes today. They are both scummy in my eyes.


Unvote, Vote: mykonian
Willing to take your second option?
Stephoscope wrote: Well, with mykonian, let me be clear: I am not at all convinced he's scum. But comments from others about how he seemed like he was coasting through the game, and providing information not analysis, were not without merit.

But as for ZEEnon, he had that "What. The Hell." post, he hasn't followed through on at least two promises to post, and he's seemed overly defensive in his responses to you. And, as I said before, I have townreads on several others on the ZEEnon wagon.
This is the switch I don't understand at all. So, explain. Why'd you switch to Myko from ZEEnon?
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Post Post #1740 (isolation #76) » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:14 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Kise wrote:
ortolan wrote:
Mod: what happens if a player with a death note is mod-killed?


We'd deal with it on a case-by-case basis. Let's hope it's not necessary to find out.
Sorry to speculate, but anyone else reading this response to orto as "It hasn't happened yet, and we hope it won't?"
Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's how it was intended to sound.
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Post Post #1741 (isolation #77) » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:17 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Kise wrote:
ZazieR wrote:I've made a case against Myko and I find him suspicious. However, I find ZEEnon more suspicious and therefore he has my vote.
Cool, but the rest of us don't find ZEE more suspicious, so at least lynch one of your other suspects today and we'll see about ZEE during D2.
ZEE was the
second
highest lynch wagon before the modkill. Are you saying that today's lynch is Myko and only Myko?
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Post Post #1743 (isolation #78) » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:20 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Starbuck wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:Lamont, Wey, Stepho, and Starbuck:

What made you switch from ZEEnon to Myko?
I said way back in one of my walls o text that I find them both suspicious and I don't care which one is lynched. The votes are going for Myko so I switched over.
Yep. Saw that when I read you in isolation. Stepho is the one I'm concerned with.
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Post Post #1745 (isolation #79) » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:22 am

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Kise wrote:Actually Star, reading you in ISO, you never suspected Myk up until this past Sunday. Now I want myk gone as well, but it's just strange.
Starbuck wrote:My suspicions currently lie with Lamont, ZEEnon, and Gorrad. I'm still unsure when it comes to Zwet.
She questioned him a little. I wouldn't say she was strongly after him, but if I had to guess whether she thought he was town or scum, I'd say scum.
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Post Post #1749 (isolation #80) » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:25 am

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Kise wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:ZEE was the
second
highest lynch wagon before the modkill. Are you saying that today's lynch is Myko and only Myko?
ZEE has, what, 2 votes on him? Compared to myk's 11, who else is a probable lynch?
If not Myk, than basically anyone. Hell, I'd still go back to Gorrad. I voted ZEEnon because he was a wagon before. I found it interesting when I noticed I was the only vote on ZEE.
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Post Post #1753 (isolation #81) » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:27 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Actually. This is all I can find now that I look closer:
Starbuck wrote:
mykonian wrote:BTW, you guys are saying zwet made up this fakeclaim? He is a bit late (or early) with his claim, but I don't think that we should lynch him. He would be a tracker (=helpful), and the theme supports it. We should at least try to get results out of him.
But does he read scum for you?

Why, if that is the case, would you willingly not vote for him?
She did say this though:
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Post Post #1757 (isolation #82) » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:33 am

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Kise wrote:Alrighty then.. So what kind of claim do you all expect from Myk; character, role, both? Just a hint/softclaim?
Just role. No character name.
Stephoscope wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
Starbuck wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:Lamont, Wey, Stepho, and Starbuck:

What made you switch from ZEEnon to Myko?
I said way back in one of my walls o text that I find them both suspicious and I don't care which one is lynched. The votes are going for Myko so I switched over.
Yep. Saw that when I read you in isolation. Stepho is the one I'm concerned with.
The wagon has been on mykonian, and I am suspicious enough of him (I mentioned reasons why before) that I think he is a worthy lynch. I would rather lynch him than risk a player I think is town being lynched. However, I will absolutely shift my vote to ZEEnon if his lynch looks like a possibility.
OH REALLY

All I see on Myko is this:
Stephoscope wrote:I would just like to mention that I find the people in ZEEnon's wagon to seem more trustworthy than the people in mykonian's wagon.

I'm not at all sticking up for mykonian, as I kind of see the case against him too. I'm just saying...take a look and see if you agree.
All you've said on Myko is that the people on his wagon aren't trustworthy. You do mention that you "kind of see the case against him", but that's about it.
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Post Post #1759 (isolation #83) » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:35 am

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ZazieR wrote:But she never addressed the Myko case and I don't think she has ever explained why she's suspicious of Myko.
Don't you think it's at least more than what Stepho said?
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Post Post #1764 (isolation #84) » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:40 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

ZazieR wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
ZazieR wrote:But she never addressed the Myko case and I don't think she has ever explained why she's suspicious of Myko.
Don't you think it's at least more than what Stepho said?
Steph has addressed the case. See my quote in post 1755.
My problem with him is that he's voting somebody for something he's doing.
You mean where he said he wasn't convinced Myko was town after his only mention of him before was a soft defense? k.

You do raise another good point though.
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Post Post #1766 (isolation #85) » Tue Jun 23, 2009 8:41 am

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Stephoscope wrote: I'm a bit overwhelmed by a game with so many players and that moves so fast.

If I know I'm innocent, it's not hypocritical to suspect others who show signs of potentially being guilty. A professional player who bulks up naturally has valid reasons to suspect other large professional baseball players of using steroids.
Hmm. Actually, your comparison makes sense. I'm just trying to decide if it applies in mafia too though...
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Post Post #1848 (isolation #86) » Wed Jun 24, 2009 8:15 am

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ZazieR wrote:
Kise wrote:@Mag - Could be more 1-shot vigs, if that's what Myk is.
@Zaz - I'll answer after Myk.
Mhmm, you better have a good reason. Because this is heavy rolefishing.
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Post Post #1899 (isolation #87) » Thu Jun 25, 2009 1:50 pm

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mykonian wrote:Game is already over for me, but at least get a good lynch that is not your claimed powerrole, so you have a chance at getting scum.
Actually a good point. If Myko is scum, it will become obvious soon enough.
Gorrad wrote:Myko, would you mind giving your flavor?
So you can figure out his character name? I'm against this.
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Post Post #1928 (isolation #88) » Fri Jun 26, 2009 6:32 am

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Hmm. Kairyuu actually raises a good point. I was assuming that if Myko is scum, there's no way he survives to endgame anyway, so why lynch him Day 1. But he's claimed the ability to kill. If he has a Death Note, we need to lynch him.
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Post Post #1930 (isolation #89) » Fri Jun 26, 2009 6:35 am

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Because it is making me reconsider my position. I don't usually do that when a lynch is looking likely and deadline isn't a factor.
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Post Post #1937 (isolation #90) » Fri Jun 26, 2009 6:51 am

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mykonian wrote: Kai, I forgot
you people
could be scared of deathnotes, but wouldn't it make sense to wait for tomorrow to see if my intentions are town? You decide, I kill. In case I get killed by someone else, and I would carry a deathnote, wouldn't that mean that the amount of people able to carry a deathnote gets smaller?
Shinigami found?
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Post Post #1941 (isolation #91) » Fri Jun 26, 2009 6:56 am

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Unvote, Vote Myko
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Post Post #1959 (isolation #92) » Fri Jun 26, 2009 7:05 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

mykonian wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
Unvote, Vote Myko
you are not telling me you actually believe Llama when he said that this was a conveniant claim...
No. I'm voting you because I think you have a Death Note.
Benmage wrote:You'll feel vindicated in death myk, that you were right and we were wrong. I love dying as town with people thinking i'm diehard scum and shoving it in their faces.
Isn't it more constructive to see what you did wrong and improve your play?
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Post Post #1964 (isolation #93) » Fri Jun 26, 2009 7:09 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

mykonian wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
Unvote, Vote Myko
you are not telling me you actually believe Llama when he said that this was a conveniant claim...
No. I think you have a Death Note.
mykonian wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
mykonian wrote: Kai, I forgot
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could be scared of deathnotes, but wouldn't it make sense to wait for tomorrow to see if my intentions are town? You decide, I kill. In case I get killed by someone else, and I would carry a deathnote, wouldn't that mean that the amount of people able to carry a deathnote gets smaller?
Shinigami found?
no, I'm just not thinking you would think I killed with a deathnote, I just didn't think that way.
In a game where the theme revolves around Death Notes killing people, it's one of the first things I'd think about as a vig.
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Post Post #1967 (isolation #94) » Fri Jun 26, 2009 7:11 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

mykonian wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
mykonian wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
Unvote, Vote Myko
you are not telling me you actually believe Llama when he said that this was a conveniant claim...
No. I'm voting you because I think you have a Death Note.
now I've got a deathnote... I don't need one!!!

would I actually kill someone "plugging him full with holes?"

you actually think I would claim vig then?
Yes. I think you would.
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Post Post #1969 (isolation #95) » Fri Jun 26, 2009 7:13 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

ZazieR wrote: What do you mean with the last sentence?
If you have a killing role, people are gonna speculate on whether or not you are using a Death Note. Myko seemed to be trying to tell us that the thought never even crossed his mind. I'm calling BS.
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Post Post #1972 (isolation #96) » Fri Jun 26, 2009 7:16 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Benmage wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote: Isn't it more constructive to see what you did wrong and improve your play?
Woah woah woah
You disagree?
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Post Post #1977 (isolation #97) » Fri Jun 26, 2009 7:21 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Benmage wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
Benmage wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote: Isn't it more constructive to see what you did wrong and improve your play?
Woah woah woah
You disagree?
Its a matter of opinion..one calls you scum, one calls you town. Can't please them all. Innocents are lynched in every game..people are always trying to improve they're play. People are dead confident sometimes and it feels good when you're vindicated turning town, thats all i'm saying.
No, it really doesn't.
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Post Post #1994 (isolation #98) » Tue Jun 30, 2009 9:35 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Ok, I'm thinking scum don't need names to kill. Zazie dropped no hints at who she was. I still think ThAd (Spolium) is about 40% likely to be scum though. I didn't like a lot of his earlier play. Gorrad looks less scummy now. ZEE still looks scummy. ABR, Zwet, and Lamont are all still likely town. And I am officially dropping the "OMG NO NAME CLAIMS" thing.
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Post Post #1998 (isolation #99) » Tue Jun 30, 2009 9:42 am

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Read more closely. At night OR after a certain amount of posts. Player's choice. Someone obviously chose to kill Zazie at night. Cateraction may have been killed by a Note too considering the obscure cause of death. So I'd assume we have at least two more Notes to destroy.
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Post Post #2002 (isolation #100) » Tue Jun 30, 2009 9:47 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Guess it's total posts and not just that player. Kise, it's almost like you knew that was about to happed ("FIRST, SECOND")

Also was gonna say just before the lock. Lamont, how sure are you on ZEEnon, or other players even, percentage wise? Can you elaborate on the vote? If you already explained it, would you mind going over it again so I don't have to search 80 pages?
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Post Post #2004 (isolation #101) » Tue Jun 30, 2009 9:55 am

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Lamont, see my last post.
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Post Post #2013 (isolation #102) » Tue Jun 30, 2009 10:58 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Lamont, how sure are you percentage wise? I agree that ZEE is pretty scummy. I'm just curious how convinced you are.
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Post Post #2017 (isolation #103) » Tue Jun 30, 2009 11:25 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Lamont_Cranston wrote:
Zee
: I am 100% convinced that something is wrong here. Unless somebody shows me meta where he normally plays this "overdefensive much" and with such bad logic defending, I don't see how he can have a town alignment. From my understanding he is supposed to be an experienced player.
See, that seems a little "too" sure to me. And I haven't seen anything from ZEE in the past to suggest he is experienced (no offense ZEE).

Vote Stepho
because I don't think anyone is going to support a ThAd lynch although I stand by my statement that he is 40% likely to be scum.

Wey, that's just the read I have on Lamont. Just seems to be playing completely differently than he did as scum in Robot Chicken. I like that he is looking around, asking questions, making cases, and actively scumhunting. He comes off protown.

On Skruffs, I just got a town read off of ABR. Something in his posts pinged my gut as being protown. I don't remember what it was though.
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Post Post #2019 (isolation #104) » Tue Jun 30, 2009 11:49 am

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What am I supposedly fabricating scuminess from?
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Post Post #2024 (isolation #105) » Tue Jun 30, 2009 12:00 pm

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Magnus, I agree, actually. I don't think he'd be so blatant about it. I wanted his reaction more than anything.
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Post Post #2027 (isolation #106) » Tue Jun 30, 2009 12:14 pm

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Magnus, elaborate on "more serious issues".
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Post Post #2031 (isolation #107) » Tue Jun 30, 2009 12:30 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

magnus_orion wrote:@KMD:
Kise's blatant reasoning off the nightkill, along with his confusing and vague reasoning for suspecting shinigami were responsible for the kills.
To me this suggests that he is implicty saying that neither nightkill was from a scum faction. Since a scum faction is extremely likely, the fact that soon afterwards someone died, suggests that kise may know who targetted what.
Meaning Kise is Kira who assumed he is the only Kira and Shinigami made the first two kills while Kise killed Semi?
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Post Post #2053 (isolation #108) » Tue Jun 30, 2009 4:06 pm

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Vi wrote: [irrelevant]Kmd seems like a completely different person to me in recent games than when I first met him in Kirby Mafia. I blame that Ether-avatar. [/irrelevant]
I was just looking back at that game earlier today. I was such a newb. :lol:
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Post Post #2070 (isolation #109) » Tue Jun 30, 2009 5:39 pm

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populartajo wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:Lamont, how sure are you percentage wise? I agree that ZEE is pretty scummy.
Why?
Why do I want percentages or why is ZEE scummy?

I think giving percentages will help the town later on. And I think ZEE is scummy based on gut mostly.
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Post Post #2076 (isolation #110) » Wed Jul 01, 2009 8:34 am

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Benmage wrote:Why the vote for Stepho…
See my Day 1 posts.
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Post Post #2087 (isolation #111) » Wed Jul 01, 2009 10:41 am

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Benmage wrote:Looking at you, Kmd in iso is funny. I had forgotten about our little banter. Still think I’m scum?
Still leaning that way, yeah.
Benmage wrote: And here is the vote to refresh all our memories….I didn’t see a strong case at all, I saw you jump around a lot…for myk you only really wagoned. How do you feel about ZEE, Gorrad, Thad/Spolium and myself. All people you previously voted for. Of whom, Stetho is not one. It is an odd jump, I don’t see your case, and I don’t like how if you do find others more scummy you won’t attack them, but yield already so early into a new day.
Yeah, that was it. His switch to Myko made no sense. And his response seemed scummy.

ZEE-still scummy. still a possible lynch today

Gorrad-was scummy for namefishing. I've dropped that. He's no longer scummy.

ThAd-40% likely scum

you-obnoxious and scummy as hell, but may just be a playstyle because you were even worse in Mafia 91 as town.

----------------------

On Myko- It can't hurt him to share his results, so I expect that he will continue to do so. If he clears someone, it helps because he wants to find a Note as badly as we do. If he finds someone with a Note, he wants them lynched on Day 7, so he'll go for that lynch. We'll still want that same lynch, so we can destroy the Note. We have better odds than he does. I'd rather dispose of the Notes before that, but we can at least compromise for his results which it actually benefits him to share anyway.

Myko, can you still vote?
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Post Post #2095 (isolation #112) » Wed Jul 01, 2009 11:00 am

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Benmage wrote: Fair enough, but he based on the work of others imo. A lot of us sorta wagon’d onto myk because of others pressure without giving much information. We put our personal scum targets on the backburner, not forgetting about them but going with the popular vote. You included.
Yeah, I looked closer at those who switched after the modkill because the ZEE wagon completely dried up and shifted almost entirely to Myko. Stepho's switch was the one that looked the worst to me.
Lamont_Cranston wrote:I think this issue is becoming a red herring. :s
I agree.
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Post Post #2137 (isolation #113) » Thu Jul 02, 2009 6:30 am

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Ort, we've now had 4 deaths without any nameclaims. I don't see how scum could need names.

Stepho, what is your case on me? That just reeks of OMGUS.
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Post Post #2189 (isolation #114) » Fri Jul 03, 2009 9:10 am

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Vi wrote:I haven't seen a game where Kmd was scum, but he doesn't look different from the game in Hell where he was Town, except he didn't lurk through the first month and a half of this game :P
Because I was in this game from the beginning and didn't have 30-40 pages to read before I could start to be active.
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I feel entirely mutual about this actually, I'll do you a favour.

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Post Post #2193 (isolation #115) » Fri Jul 03, 2009 10:44 am

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Must have missed it. I'm gonna assume you mean this:
magnus_orion wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:Read more closely. At night OR after a certain amount of posts. Player's choice. Someone obviously chose to kill Zazie at night. Cateraction may have been killed by a Note too considering the obscure cause of death. So I'd assume we have at least two more Notes to destroy.
Something here just sparked my interest.
Cateraction was attacked by a lion.
You say that Cateraction "may" have been killed with a death note.
KMD, could you please clarify: do you believe that there exists a possible scenario where Cateraction was not killed with a death note?
Possible? Yes. Likely? No. I don't understand
why
anyone with a Death Note would have killed him, but it seems to be the case.
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Post Post #2258 (isolation #116) » Sat Jul 04, 2009 6:56 am

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Kairyuu wrote:@Kise: Claim in your next post or die. It's as simple as that.
Did you have anything to do with that?
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Post Post #2262 (isolation #117) » Sat Jul 04, 2009 7:27 am

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Kairyuu, Mastin wasn't the only other death.
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Post Post #2265 (isolation #118) » Sat Jul 04, 2009 7:36 am

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Did you read Myko's Note? Kills can happen EITHER during the day or at night.
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Post Post #2267 (isolation #119) » Sat Jul 04, 2009 7:47 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Didn't Myko claim Mastin's kill? Are you saying you don't believe him?
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Post Post #2357 (isolation #120) » Sun Jul 05, 2009 6:35 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

MrBuddyLee wrote:If you're interested in town meta on me, you'll find it in Wheel of Time soon enough when I get NKed. Years of experience have taught me that if I make vocal cases too early, I die N1/N2. Better to vote correctly and accumulate more data before shooting my wad, so to speak.
You don't want to lynch scum in the first couple of days because it means you might die?
MBL wrote:Lamont, I'm curious to know why you're trying to wagon me in particular. I believe I was an early vote on the guy with the Death Note we destroyed
Bad argument. Myko was self-aligned, so even the scum wanted him lynched.
MrBuddyLee wrote:
Lamont wrote:@MBL: Can you give me a link where you lurked in the beginning of the current game we are referring to? And if not, why not?
Translation: "I'm not really interested in looking this up myself, because I am Lamont Cranston, posturing scumbag."

This is no longer about me, it's now about Lamont. Back to your regularly scheduled program.
No link then?
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Post Post #2360 (isolation #121) » Sun Jul 05, 2009 7:01 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

magnus_orion wrote:
You don't want to lynch scum in the first couple of days because it means you might die?
Hi, strawman
FOS: kmd.
Strawman? Not being vocal about your suspicions is retarded if the only reason for it is fearing your death. Do you disagree?
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Post Post #2362 (isolation #122) » Sun Jul 05, 2009 7:12 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

magnus_orion wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
magnus_orion wrote:
You don't want to lynch scum in the first couple of days because it means you might die?
Hi, strawman
FOS: kmd.
Strawman? Not being vocal about your suspicions is retarded if the only reason for it is fearing your death. Do you disagree?
That's fine, last time I checked, though, mbl was voicing his suspicions, just not
why
.
He was "voicing" opinions. But he wasn't being
vocal
about them and wasn't going to convince anyone playing the way he was.
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Post Post #2374 (isolation #123) » Mon Jul 06, 2009 8:09 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

magnus_orion wrote:So how is that the same as opposing the lynch of scum then?
It's not opposing it. It's just making it less likely to happen.
Benmage wrote:ThAdmiral (i'd be down to lynch him )
So would I. I think 40% in mafia is good odds.
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Post Post #2391 (isolation #124) » Tue Jul 07, 2009 1:40 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Mod
, I voted Stepho about a week ago.
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Post Post #2432 (isolation #125) » Tue Jul 07, 2009 9:30 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

ThAdmiral wrote: Wait on, I'm not lurking I'm trying to catch up!
If you guys would stop adding 10 pages every time I look at the thread that would help as well!
I'm not suspicious of you for lurking.
Starbuck wrote:If you want an example, the Twilight Mini should do.
And is ongoing.

Vote MBL
. It's the most likely lynch of the scummy players because no one is interested in voting ThAd and only Llama is interested in voting Stepho.
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Post Post #2434 (isolation #126) » Tue Jul 07, 2009 9:39 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Starbuck wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:
Starbuck wrote:If you want an example, the Twilight Mini should do.
And is ongoing.
The example was for zwet, who is no longer playing.
His player slot is still alive.
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Post Post #2443 (isolation #127) » Tue Jul 07, 2009 1:27 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Hmm. I know it's only Day 2, but there are actually three good wagons to look at. Mastin just before death, Myko's lynch, and Kise just before death. Green will mean confirmed town and orange confirmed Shinigami. I'll use bolded gray for Phily. Let's see what I can find.
Last count before Mastin's death wrote: Votecount
Lamont_Cranston - 5 (Kairyuu, magnus_orion, ortolan,
Mastin
, Starbuck)
Mastin
- 5 (Lamont_Cranston, benmage, zwetschenwasser, WeyounsLastClone)
magnus_orion - 2 (Seraphim, ZEEnon)
mykonian
- 2 (LlamaFluff,
semioldguy
)
benmage - 1 (Kmd4390)
ZEEnon - 1 (
ZazieR
)
Not voting:
cateraction
, Jebus, populartajo, Budja, Gorrad, Albert B. Rampage,
Kise
, Stephoscope, Spolium,
mykonian
,
PhilyEc
Well, Zazie, who was town, is the only vote on ZEE. He wasn't really an easy target for scum just yet though if he's town. I won't call it a point against him just yet.

Mastin's wagon more than likely had at least one scum on it. That gives 25% odds to Lamont, Benmage, Zwet, and Wey. Factoring in my town read on Lamont, I'll say 30% on Benmage, Zwet, and Wey and 10% on Lamont. (Note that ThAd, then Spolium, is still higher than any of these names at 40%)

I want to analyze Lamont's wagon, but I don't know his alignment so it's hard to do. If he's town, it gives about 25% scumpoints to Kairyuu, Magnus, Ort, and Starbuck. And I see Kairyuu and Magnus as town, so it's almost a tossup between Ort and Starbuck, meaning I could even see them as scum over ThAd. If Lamont is scum, it means good odds for all 4 being town, which actually does seem more likely. So forget my previous odds on Mastin's wagon.

Benmage, Zwet, Wey, and Lamont now stand at 25%. If Lamont is town, Ort and Starbuck are up around 40% with Kairyuu and Magnus around 10%. With Lamont's alignment unknown, I have to factor in only the 25% chance of him being scum, meaning Ort and Starbuck now go to 10% and Kairyuu/Mangus down to just above 2%.

Now how do we look at Myko. Scum want Shinigami lynched so they can get a Note. But town want them lynched too. Myko was legitimitely scummy, and it's hard to analyze without looking at context. I'm going to consider Llama's Myko vote completely null.

So after Mastin's wagon, we stand at the following odds for scum:
25% finding scum if we lynch Benmage, Zwet, Wey, or Lamont.
10% finding scum if we lynch Ort or Starbuck
just above 2% if we lynch Kairyuu or Magnus.

I still like my 40% on ThAd.

Let's do Myko's lynch now. I'm adding in Lamont's hammer which isn't included in the count. I'm also removing cateraction and myko from "not voting" because they appear as voting Myko.
Last count before Myko's lynch plus the hammer wrote:Votecount
mykonian - 13 (LlamaFluff,
cateraction, Kise
, magnus_orion, WeyounsLastClone, Stephoscope, Starbuck, MrBuddyLee, populartajo, Kairyuu, Benmage,
mykonian
, Lamont_Cranston)
ZEEnon - 1 (
ZazieR
)
Lamont_Cranston - 2 (Gorrad, ortolan)
Not voting: Vi, Skruffs, semioldguy, Seraphim, ZEEnon, Spolium, zwetschenwasser
Now, I called Llama's earlier Myko vote null because it was only two votes. His and a confirmed town player. I'm still going to treat his vote the same way. Other people jumping on the wagon shouldn't affect his odds. Myko is confirmed as Shinigami. Cateraction and Kise were town. Now, under the assumption that scum still want this lynch, nine people can be looked at here. 11% for Magnus, Wey, Stepho, Starbuck, MBL, Tajo, Kairyuu, Benmage, and Lamont.

We have to factor in the earlier results though, so I can't stick all of them at 11%. Magnus and Kairyuu move to 6.5%. Wey, Benmage, and Lamont move to 18%. Starbuck at 10.5%. That leaves Stepho, MBL, and Tajo. When adding up everyone else on the wagon and subtracting from 100% (the assumption that a scum voted Myko), the three of them remain at 7.5%.

Zazie's vote remaining on ZEE means we had a townie convinced on ZEE. Doesn't mean Zazie was right, but it shows some real suspicion worth taking into consideration.

Gorrad and Ort get 50% if Lamont is town. Factoring in Starbuck before, it's 33% for each. But Starbuck is now 10.5%. And we have to assume Lamont town before assuming one of these is scum. 8% for Gorrad and Ort. Starbuck is already determined as 10.5% likely to be scum.

Also, I want to look at those not voting at the end of the day. Vi, Skruffs,
semioldguy
, Seraphim, ZEEnon, Spolium, zwetschenwasser. ThAd's percentage won't move. We also have a confirmed townie in the group. Between, Vi, Skruffs, Sera, ZEE, and Zwet there is likely a scum. 20%. But Zwet was previously considered 25%. He moves to 22.5%. I'm gonna round up (from 19.38%) to 19.5% for Vi, Skruffs, Sera, and ZEE. But with Zazie's suspicions on ZEE, he moves up to 20.5% with Vi, Skruffs, Sera, and Zwet moving down to 19%.

So ZEE should be at 20.5%. Vi, Skruffs, and Sera should be at 19%. I'm gonna cut those in half because none of them were included in the first wagon analysis. ZEE is 10.25%. Vi, Skruffs, Sera, and Zwet at 9.5%

New odds:
Zwet-22.5%
Wey, Benmage, and Lamont-18%
Starbuck-10.5%
ZEE-10.25%
Vi, Skruffs, Sera-9.5%
Gorrad and Ort-8%
Stepho, MBL, and Tajo-7.5%
Magnus and Kairyuu-6.5%

Right. On to Kise. I see about a page and a half between the last vote count and Kise's death. Starbuck voted Kise while Lamont and Benmage unvoted in that time. I'll remember it, but won't physically alter the count this time.
Count just before Kise's death wrote:Votecount
Kise
- 6 (Vi, magnus_orion, Lamont_Cranston, Stephoscope, Gorrad, Kairyuu)
Lamont_Cranston - 2 (WeyounsLastClone, populartajo)
Stephoscope - 2 (LlamaFluff, Kmd4390)
MrBuddyLee - 2 (Kise, mykonian)
Benmage - 1 (ZEEnon)
Vi - 1 (ortolan)
Not voting: zwetschenwasser,
mykonian
, Skruffs, Starbuck, Seraphim, ThAdmiral
Kise's wagon gives us a golden opportunity to find scum. I'm gonna consider Starbuck on that wagon and assume 2 scum on it. 29% scum points for anyone there. Lamont unvoted, but his vote was still there in the first place, so he counts. Benmage doesn't even appear on the count for some reason, so let's just call him not voting because he unvoted.

Vi, Magnus, Lamont, Stepho, Gorrad, Kairyuu, and Starbuck are there. So 29% combined with whatever they were already at. All of these can be seen under "Final odds". No reason to list them twice.

Interesting. I don't see MBL on this count either.

Wey and Tajo get 50% if Lamont is town. 23.5% chance that he is. This is getting really messy, but I'm putting Wey and Tajo and 12.5% scum points.Wey moves to 15.75%. Tajo hasn't been included yet as he wasn't voting in the Mastin count and wasn't even on the Myko count. These missing names are killing my analysis. Mod, I apologize if it was my error in removing your color tags that did it. Anyway, for accuracy purposes, Tajo is at 6.25%.

Again, 25% to those not voting. Zwet, Skruffs, and Sera. Myko's alignment is confirmed and I already have ThAd's odds.

I have to figure ZEE because 10.25% doesn't look accurate. He was alone in voting Benmage. I really see it as null though. I can factor in Zazie's suspicions again though and put him at 12%. I guess there's no reason for him to be any higher though.

Final odds:
Zwet-28.75%
Lamont-23.5%
Starbuck-19.75%
Vi-19.25%
Gorrad-18.75%
Stepho-18.25%
Wey, Benmage-18%
Magnus and Kairyuu-17.75%
Skruffs, Sera-17.25%
ZEE-12%
Ort-8%
MBL-7.5%
Tajo-6.25%

Conclusions: Zwet's voting style is probably the reason for the high percentage. Lamont, who I strongly read as town, quite frankly has a scummy voting record. Worth keeping an eye on. Starbuck is probably playstyle. Vi is scummy. Gorrad is partially scummy. Stepho is scummy. I'm gonna lay off of ZEE and MBL a little now.

Willing to lynch (in order):
ThAd
Stepho
Vi
Wey

Unvote MBL, Vote ThAd
. This made me realize just how strong 40% really is. Also, MBL's voting record isn't scummy at all. I've basically reinforced that ThAd is my top choice and I can compromise on Stepho. Vi and Wey need to be looked at again though. And I'm now looking at Lamont a little more closely.

Disclaimers:
A)I suck at math.
B)These percentages are NOT a breadcrumb for L
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Post Post #2444 (isolation #128) » Tue Jul 07, 2009 1:32 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Lamont, you ok dude?
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Post Post #2452 (isolation #129) » Wed Jul 08, 2009 12:54 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Vi wrote: Kmd started speaking my language with the vote analysis.
Here are some issues I have with what you put out.
After it caught both scum in Newbie 734 on Day 3, vote count analysis is my favorite tool.
Vi wrote:*In Mastin's vote count, you give zwet 30% scum odds, but you refuse to factor in his later Tracker claim. This stands at odds with the seeming-preferential treatment you gave L_C. I don't mind the assumption that there was at least one scum on Mastin's wagon.
Honestly, when Zwet makes a claim that is very obscure, I treat it as null. Hell, I treat most of Zwet's claims as null.
Vi wrote:*For some reason, and I don't know if it was mod error, you put mykonian's name on his own wagon. Where myko's name is, I believe yours should be. Understandably you would count yourself out of your own analysis, but considering myko's name is in shiny gold print I'm surprised you missed it.
The vote count showed Myko self-voting. I don't remember that happening, but that was what the count said and it wasn't important because Myko's role is confirmed anyway. I don't think it's my name that belongs there, but even if it is, like you say, I'm not here to analyze myself.
Vi wrote:*While I agree that just through odds and meta there were probably scum OFF the mykonian wagon, I do not think you should exclusively focus on the Not Voting bunch - Gorrad and ortolan were in effect also not on the myko wagon. While I would also object to how virtually all of the players who were Not Voting had flaked from the game, that doesn't really constitute an individualized alignment tell (except in my case, since I was in the game but catching up veeeeery slowly though the verbose muck).
Looking at wagons on non-confirmed players has to be looked at as just that. Yes, scum were probably off the wagon. But we can't pinpoint exactly where. Don't worry, I'll come back to it when we have more confirmed players.

And looking at Not Voting factors in lurking as a scumtell.
Vi wrote:*I would like for you to give more attention to how and why people joined the Kise wagon. I will not try to disguise the fact that I was on it and pushed it. However, look again at how the wagon grew.
Fair enough. Context needs to support things for them to be seen as truth. I just came home from work though (almost 8AM), so I'm gonna put it off for now.
Vi wrote:*Again, zwet, Skruffs, and Seraphim have for all intents and purposes flaked, and I do not think that should be maliciously counted against them during the Kise wagon.
Also,
@mod: Prod/Replace Seraphim.
Fair enough.
Vi wrote:So if I'm reading this correctly, I'm scummy because
*I was catching up through the mykonian wagon (I said he was a good lynch, but I didn't want to place a vote until I knew what was going on)
*I pushed the Kise wagon
which, while both true as far as actually occurring, are not scumtells in context. If you disagree, I'm willing to discuss.
In context, yes, you were catching up. You appear as a lurker in the analysis though. The idea on the Kise wagon isn't just that you were wrong. It's that statistics indicate that very few times is a wagon on town, like the one on Kise, 100% pure. Someone there is likely to be scum. You just happen to fit that bill.
Vi wrote:In addition, ThAdmiral is scummy because
*Spolium flaked before the PhillyEC modkill
*ThAdmiral was still catching up during the Kise wagon
which is incredible as a case. I will also note that Spolium was voting for mykonian before PhillyEC's modkill, but because of the way you set your analysis up this was not factored in at all.
ThAd wasn't included in the analysis. He is 40% scum before the analysis. Much higher odds than the analysis gave anyone.
Vi wrote:tl;dr Lynch All Lurkers is a good idea. Lynch All Flakers is not. Lynch All Hapless Replacements Who Are Wading Through Eighty Pages Of Egocentric Posts doesn't sound good either.
And lynch all scum sounds better than any of those. That's what I'm looking for. I'm using statistics, logic, and analysis to determine who is most likely scum.
Vi wrote:And yes, this response kind of shows what I do for a living <.<
Maybe I'm just dumb, but I don't see it.
MrBuddyLee wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:Lamont, who I strongly read as town, quite frankly has a scummy voting record. Worth keeping an eye on.

Also, MBL's voting record isn't scummy at all.
Holy crap, all that math actually yielded this amazing result? And here I thought it was a bunch of hoodoo.
Hey, my opinions were different before the analysis.
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Post Post #2482 (isolation #130) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:32 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Vi wrote:Kmd: You placed the L-1 vote on mykonian. Post 1941.
Do you think your vote analysis should be helpful to anyone but yourself?
I did it for my own purposes assuming no one would be able to follow it anyway. I only posted it in thread so people would maybe be able to see my thought process a little.
Vi wrote: What do you mean by an "obscure" claim as made by zwet? I know basically nothing about the flavor to this game, ftr.
Also, while I have seen zwet
lie
forget important details about his role, self-hammer as Town, and encourage a wagon on himself so he can claim sooner (seriously), I haven't seen him lie about his role so far.
Mastin claimed some scum aligned tracker lover role or something in the RVS. Zwet basically brought up a "me too" and said Mastin's death made him a tracker.
LlamaFluff wrote: @kmd - You are calling both Steph and MBL scum IIRC, who is scummier and why?
Steph because I think MBL is town.
Vi wrote: Also, you're coming home from work at 8
in the morning?
Well I got out at 6, but I ate and socialized a little and I live almost a half hour from work, but other than that, basically.
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Post Post #2495 (isolation #131) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:39 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Unvote, Vote Stepho


GoGo non-MBL wagon.
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Post Post #2501 (isolation #132) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 2:38 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Stephoscope wrote:
Unvote
Vote: LlamaFluff
Either give a decent case or vote someone else.
Vi wrote:While I'm aware of what the third shift is, it always seems to surprise me that people can actually live with those hours :?
Second time I've heard that term today. I'm assuming it means overnight?
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Post Post #2527 (isolation #133) » Sat Jul 11, 2009 12:25 pm

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Lamont, what do you think of Stepho?
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Post Post #2529 (isolation #134) » Sat Jul 11, 2009 12:51 pm

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Who is scummy, but not an "easy" lynch?
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Post Post #2555 (isolation #135) » Sun Jul 12, 2009 5:31 pm

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Millar is getting better.
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Post Post #2565 (isolation #136) » Mon Jul 13, 2009 1:57 am

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MafiaSSK wrote:Here. I'd like to claim Miller.
I don't think I buy this.
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Post Post #2570 (isolation #137) » Mon Jul 13, 2009 8:43 am

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I'd be willing to lynch SSK or ThAd right now.
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Post Post #2674 (isolation #138) » Tue Jul 14, 2009 4:51 pm

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populartajo wrote: Ill tell you what the approach is here: if he is scummy, lynch. If he isnt, we dont. Simple as that.
Or we lynch him because his claim is a fakeclaim.
MafiaSSK wrote:
LlamaFluff wrote:
@SSK - Why not flavor/role claim when you claimed miller?
I hadn't read anything of the thread. I didn't know you could quote more than your role.
Have you EVER played a game where flavorclaiming was against the rules? I don't think I have. Also, quoting and claiming are two different things.
Sir Tornado wrote:Alright, I am your replacement for Zeenon. I am not going to read all the 104 pages, so pointers to important posts will be appreciated.
ThAd, SSK, and Vi are scum. Starbuck and Gorrad are town. Magnus and Tajo might be town too.

Unvote, Vote SSK
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Post Post #2729 (isolation #139) » Thu Jul 16, 2009 12:46 pm

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Vi wrote: 4) Gorrad doesn't expect any Millers in this game (why?)
Gorrad is town. Vi is scum. People who are town should know why (assuming my theory is correct). Lamont is town for a similar reason. I think Lamont figured out the same thing I did.
LlamaFluff wrote: I’m confused here. Are you saying Aiber/Wedy are criminals and so are Kira or Pro-Kira…basically not of the town win condition (since I don’t know Death Note and may be wording this incorrectly)
[/quote]

Not important, but weren't they both hired by the original L, and not Near?
magnus_orion wrote: They were hired by L, not near.
:lol: Thought so.
ThAdmiral wrote:@ kmd - why am I "40%" scum?
You know, I did try to find that one out. Didn't get as far as I'd hoped..
Vi wrote:I find it highly improbable that ThAdmiral is scum after coming in with reads like those. Which makes me suspect Kmd for pushing lynches (considering that 40% figure came out of the air in the first place, versus his vote analysis percentages).

Can three or four of you stop pursuing the moronic policy lynch and vote the obvscum? Please?
Actually, I am more sure of that 40% than any other statistic I have posted all game.

And I
am
voting the obvscum. Wait. Actually. Now that I think about it, while "miller" wouldn't make sense, his "random"ness does.

Unvote


Ok, let me try this. Vi, a simple yes or no will work. Do you know why I am unvoting SSK?

Voite ThAdmiral
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Post Post #2731 (isolation #140) » Thu Jul 16, 2009 3:34 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Vi wrote:
Kmd4390 2729 wrote:
Unvote


Ok, let me try this. Vi, a simple yes or no will work. Do you know why I am unvoting SSK?

Voite ThAdmiral
I have some ideas, but not precisely.

What I want to know is why you're voiting ThAdmiral.
Because there is a 40% chance he's scum and I like those odds.
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Post Post #2733 (isolation #141) » Thu Jul 16, 2009 3:36 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Lamont, do you know why I unvoted SSK? A yes or no will do.
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Post Post #2736 (isolation #142) » Thu Jul 16, 2009 5:34 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Benmage wrote:Can you rephrase why he's 40% scum, not sure i get the math...
There's no math involved. I'm starting to think my theory is wrong. But I do still think SSK is town.
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Post Post #2740 (isolation #143) » Fri Jul 17, 2009 1:53 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Gorrad, Mello is "anti-Kira", no? Even if it's just to beat Near, Mello wants to catch Kira.

SSK, do you know Mello and Watari to be town?

ThAd, I'm not going to elaborate on the theory just yet.
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Post Post #2756 (isolation #144) » Fri Jul 17, 2009 5:48 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Why does Mello have to be town for SSK to be telling the truth? SSK said he doesn't know Mello's alignment. Could be like an activated neighbor role.
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Post Post #2763 (isolation #145) » Sat Jul 18, 2009 6:32 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Gorrad wrote:Because Mello's so BLATANTLY anti-town that if he knows who Mello is, it would be unfair (As it would be an auto-outting of a scum role). If the mod wanted a role that would auto-out a scum role, he'd have SSK just know who Mello was instead of masonizing.
Your logic assumes Mello HAS to be scum. I disagree for 2 reasons:
1.) Mello is anti-Kira. Anti-Kira is town.
2.) Outguessing Mods in this way is retarded.
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Post Post #2774 (isolation #146) » Sat Jul 18, 2009 2:04 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Unvote, Vote Stepho
because of the deadline.
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Post Post #2801 (isolation #147) » Sun Jul 19, 2009 11:08 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Unvote, Vote Stepho


You can claim now.
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Post Post #2806 (isolation #148) » Sun Jul 19, 2009 12:21 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Unvote
. Now I feel like a dick for making him think he was really at L-1...
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Post Post #2808 (isolation #149) » Sun Jul 19, 2009 12:45 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Vote SSK
. Let's see where this takes us...
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Post Post #2810 (isolation #150) » Sun Jul 19, 2009 12:51 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

What information doesn't match up?
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Post Post #2858 (isolation #151) » Mon Jul 20, 2009 8:58 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Stephoscope wrote:
ThAdmiral wrote:@ stephoscope: can you try to breadcrumb the person (obviously make this very discreet/cryptic so the scum can't figure it out) who is in your task force and then tell that person how you breadcrumbed them during this upcoming night so they can reveal themselves at a later day if they need to?
This would seem to be strictly prohibited by the rules.
Mod, would this be allowed?


The act of bread crumbing and any claims supported by such are not illegal.

Starbuck wrote: I would think that if someone else was L they would have counterclaimed by now.
I wouldn't have. I'd wait until either I die and flip L or until Stepho's lynch is absolutely necessary (LYLO). Well, assuming L is a power role. Btw, this is NOT me saying that I'm L. This is me saying that assuming people will always counter is dumb.

Also, people are making bad assumptions about the task force.
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Post Post #2921 (isolation #152) » Tue Jul 21, 2009 10:10 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Kmd4390 wrote:
Stephoscope wrote:
ThAdmiral wrote:@ stephoscope: can you try to breadcrumb the person (obviously make this very discreet/cryptic so the scum can't figure it out) who is in your task force and then tell that person how you breadcrumbed them during this upcoming night so they can reveal themselves at a later day if they need to?
This would seem to be strictly prohibited by the rules.
Mod, would this be allowed?


The act of bread crumbing and any claims supported by such are not illegal.
^This should happen.
Gorrad wrote: SSK, if you're town, then it's confirmed that L, Mello, and Watari are all in the game and town. Why the hell would we lynch a claimed L if you flip town?
It means they are in the game. It doesn't mean they are town.
MafiaSSK wrote:Fine.
Unvote, vote ssk
Why?
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Post Post #2923 (isolation #153) » Tue Jul 21, 2009 10:13 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Vote SSK
. SSK, you're a Shinigami, right? So still alive, just lost the Note?
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Post Post #2929 (isolation #154) » Tue Jul 21, 2009 10:30 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Starbuck wrote:I really don't think KMD even realized it.
Nah, I know what I did. That's why I asked SSK to confirm that he is Shinigami and specifically mentioned that he'd still be alive now.
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Post Post #2931 (isolation #155) » Tue Jul 21, 2009 10:33 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

SSK, Kira? Town?
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Post Post #2933 (isolation #156) » Tue Jul 21, 2009 10:36 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Unvote, Vote Benmage
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Post Post #2939 (isolation #157) » Tue Jul 21, 2009 10:39 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

MafiaSSK wrote:
Vi wrote:ITT Kmd fakehammers again.
ITT Kmd did hammer. :(
Nah. :P
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Post Post #3011 (isolation #158) » Wed Jul 22, 2009 1:37 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Mod, if Benmage had a Death Note, would it have just been destroyed and would we have been notified of this?
If a Death Note holding player is modkilled, the fate of that notebook would not be told to anyone as to not infer the modkilled player's alignment or role.

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Post Post #3049 (isolation #159) » Wed Jul 22, 2009 8:24 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

populartajo wrote: Also, I dont like how modkilled people lose their original role. I think not revealing alignment hurts the town a little bit more than it hurts scum. The only exception is when the modkilled guy is scum. But hey, its the Mod's game.
That's not an exception. We can't look for connections. It definitely helps scum.

Btw, stop lynching SSK. He said he was town after I fakehammered.
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Post Post #3052 (isolation #160) » Wed Jul 22, 2009 9:10 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

LlamaFluff wrote: Also I take it you think that Steph is scum this means?
No. Is there a direct contradiction in their claims that I am unaware of?
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Post Post #3054 (isolation #161) » Wed Jul 22, 2009 9:21 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Stepho's claim is provable though. Lynching him before trying that would be stupid.

Vote ThAdmiral
. Let's get this done before deadline.
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Post Post #3056 (isolation #162) » Wed Jul 22, 2009 9:30 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Whatever.
Unvote, Vote SSK
because we won't be able to get anything else.
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Post Post #3085 (isolation #163) » Sun Jul 26, 2009 6:44 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Xylthixlm wrote: Kmd4390, who is scum?
Vi.

Vote Vi
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Post Post #3095 (isolation #164) » Sun Jul 26, 2009 7:01 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Stepho,
Kmd4390 wrote:Hmm. I know it's only Day 2, but there are actually three good wagons to look at. Mastin just before death, Myko's lynch, and Kise just before death. Green will mean confirmed town and orange confirmed Shinigami. I'll use bolded gray for Phily. Let's see what I can find.
Last count before Mastin's death wrote: Votecount
Lamont_Cranston - 5 (Kairyuu, magnus_orion, ortolan,
Mastin
, Starbuck)
Mastin
- 5 (Lamont_Cranston, benmage, zwetschenwasser, WeyounsLastClone)
magnus_orion - 2 (Seraphim, ZEEnon)
mykonian
- 2 (LlamaFluff,
semioldguy
)
benmage - 1 (Kmd4390)
ZEEnon - 1 (
ZazieR
)
Not voting:
cateraction
, Jebus, populartajo, Budja, Gorrad, Albert B. Rampage,
Kise
, Stephoscope, Spolium,
mykonian
,
PhilyEc
Well, Zazie, who was town, is the only vote on ZEE. He wasn't really an easy target for scum just yet though if he's town. I won't call it a point against him just yet.

Mastin's wagon more than likely had at least one scum on it. That gives 25% odds to Lamont, Benmage, Zwet, and Wey. Factoring in my town read on Lamont, I'll say 30% on Benmage, Zwet, and Wey and 10% on Lamont. (Note that ThAd, then Spolium, is still higher than any of these names at 40%)

I want to analyze Lamont's wagon, but I don't know his alignment so it's hard to do. If he's town, it gives about 25% scumpoints to Kairyuu, Magnus, Ort, and Starbuck. And I see Kairyuu and Magnus as town, so it's almost a tossup between Ort and Starbuck, meaning I could even see them as scum over ThAd. If Lamont is scum, it means good odds for all 4 being town, which actually does seem more likely. So forget my previous odds on Mastin's wagon.

Benmage, Zwet, Wey, and Lamont now stand at 25%. If Lamont is town, Ort and Starbuck are up around 40% with Kairyuu and Magnus around 10%. With Lamont's alignment unknown, I have to factor in only the 25% chance of him being scum, meaning Ort and Starbuck now go to 10% and Kairyuu/Mangus down to just above 2%.

Now how do we look at Myko. Scum want Shinigami lynched so they can get a Note. But town want them lynched too. Myko was legitimitely scummy, and it's hard to analyze without looking at context. I'm going to consider Llama's Myko vote completely null.

So after Mastin's wagon, we stand at the following odds for scum:
25% finding scum if we lynch Benmage, Zwet, Wey, or Lamont.
10% finding scum if we lynch Ort or Starbuck
just above 2% if we lynch Kairyuu or Magnus.

I still like my 40% on ThAd.

Let's do Myko's lynch now. I'm adding in Lamont's hammer which isn't included in the count. I'm also removing cateraction and myko from "not voting" because they appear as voting Myko.
Last count before Myko's lynch plus the hammer wrote:Votecount
mykonian - 13 (LlamaFluff,
cateraction, Kise
, magnus_orion, WeyounsLastClone, Stephoscope, Starbuck, MrBuddyLee, populartajo, Kairyuu, Benmage,
mykonian
, Lamont_Cranston)
ZEEnon - 1 (
ZazieR
)
Lamont_Cranston - 2 (Gorrad, ortolan)
Not voting: Vi, Skruffs, semioldguy, Seraphim, ZEEnon, Spolium, zwetschenwasser
Now, I called Llama's earlier Myko vote null because it was only two votes. His and a confirmed town player. I'm still going to treat his vote the same way. Other people jumping on the wagon shouldn't affect his odds. Myko is confirmed as Shinigami. Cateraction and Kise were town. Now, under the assumption that scum still want this lynch, nine people can be looked at here. 11% for Magnus, Wey, Stepho, Starbuck, MBL, Tajo, Kairyuu, Benmage, and Lamont.

We have to factor in the earlier results though, so I can't stick all of them at 11%. Magnus and Kairyuu move to 6.5%. Wey, Benmage, and Lamont move to 18%. Starbuck at 10.5%. That leaves Stepho, MBL, and Tajo. When adding up everyone else on the wagon and subtracting from 100% (the assumption that a scum voted Myko), the three of them remain at 7.5%.

Zazie's vote remaining on ZEE means we had a townie convinced on ZEE. Doesn't mean Zazie was right, but it shows some real suspicion worth taking into consideration.

Gorrad and Ort get 50% if Lamont is town. Factoring in Starbuck before, it's 33% for each. But Starbuck is now 10.5%. And we have to assume Lamont town before assuming one of these is scum. 8% for Gorrad and Ort. Starbuck is already determined as 10.5% likely to be scum.

Also, I want to look at those not voting at the end of the day. Vi, Skruffs,
semioldguy
, Seraphim, ZEEnon, Spolium, zwetschenwasser. ThAd's percentage won't move. We also have a confirmed townie in the group. Between, Vi, Skruffs, Sera, ZEE, and Zwet there is likely a scum. 20%. But Zwet was previously considered 25%. He moves to 22.5%. I'm gonna round up (from 19.38%) to 19.5% for Vi, Skruffs, Sera, and ZEE. But with Zazie's suspicions on ZEE, he moves up to 20.5% with Vi, Skruffs, Sera, and Zwet moving down to 19%.

So ZEE should be at 20.5%. Vi, Skruffs, and Sera should be at 19%. I'm gonna cut those in half because none of them were included in the first wagon analysis. ZEE is 10.25%. Vi, Skruffs, Sera, and Zwet at 9.5%

New odds:
Zwet-22.5%
Wey, Benmage, and Lamont-18%
Starbuck-10.5%
ZEE-10.25%
Vi, Skruffs, Sera-9.5%
Gorrad and Ort-8%
Stepho, MBL, and Tajo-7.5%
Magnus and Kairyuu-6.5%

Right. On to Kise. I see about a page and a half between the last vote count and Kise's death. Starbuck voted Kise while Lamont and Benmage unvoted in that time. I'll remember it, but won't physically alter the count this time.
Count just before Kise's death wrote:Votecount
Kise
- 6 (Vi, magnus_orion, Lamont_Cranston, Stephoscope, Gorrad, Kairyuu)
Lamont_Cranston - 2 (WeyounsLastClone, populartajo)
Stephoscope - 2 (LlamaFluff, Kmd4390)
MrBuddyLee - 2 (Kise, mykonian)
Benmage - 1 (ZEEnon)
Vi - 1 (ortolan)
Not voting: zwetschenwasser,
mykonian
, Skruffs, Starbuck, Seraphim, ThAdmiral
Kise's wagon gives us a golden opportunity to find scum. I'm gonna consider Starbuck on that wagon and assume 2 scum on it. 29% scum points for anyone there. Lamont unvoted, but his vote was still there in the first place, so he counts. Benmage doesn't even appear on the count for some reason, so let's just call him not voting because he unvoted.

Vi, Magnus, Lamont, Stepho, Gorrad, Kairyuu, and Starbuck are there. So 29% combined with whatever they were already at. All of these can be seen under "Final odds". No reason to list them twice.

Interesting. I don't see MBL on this count either.

Wey and Tajo get 50% if Lamont is town. 23.5% chance that he is. This is getting really messy, but I'm putting Wey and Tajo and 12.5% scum points.Wey moves to 15.75%. Tajo hasn't been included yet as he wasn't voting in the Mastin count and wasn't even on the Myko count. These missing names are killing my analysis. Mod, I apologize if it was my error in removing your color tags that did it. Anyway, for accuracy purposes, Tajo is at 6.25%.

Again, 25% to those not voting. Zwet, Skruffs, and Sera. Myko's alignment is confirmed and I already have ThAd's odds.

I have to figure ZEE because 10.25% doesn't look accurate. He was alone in voting Benmage. I really see it as null though. I can factor in Zazie's suspicions again though and put him at 12%. I guess there's no reason for him to be any higher though.

Final odds:
Zwet-28.75%
Lamont-23.5%
Starbuck-19.75%
Vi-19.25%
Gorrad-18.75%
Stepho-18.25%
Wey, Benmage-18%
Magnus and Kairyuu-17.75%
Skruffs, Sera-17.25%
ZEE-12%
Ort-8%
MBL-7.5%
Tajo-6.25%

Conclusions: Zwet's voting style is probably the reason for the high percentage. Lamont, who I strongly read as town, quite frankly has a scummy voting record. Worth keeping an eye on. Starbuck is probably playstyle. Vi is scummy. Gorrad is partially scummy. Stepho is scummy. I'm gonna lay off of ZEE and MBL a little now.

Willing to lynch (in order):
ThAd
Stepho
Vi
Wey

Unvote MBL, Vote ThAd
. This made me realize just how strong 40% really is. Also, MBL's voting record isn't scummy at all. I've basically reinforced that ThAd is my top choice and I can compromise on Stepho. Vi and Wey need to be looked at again though. And I'm now looking at Lamont a little more closely.

Disclaimers:
A)I suck at math.
B)These percentages are NOT a breadcrumb for L
Look at who I was willing to lynch. ThAd is dead and I think you are town. That leaves either Vi or Wey.

Btw, just saw this was edited in with my question:
Kmd4390 wrote:
Mod, if Benmage had a Death Note, would it have just been destroyed and would we have been notified of this?
If a Death Note holding player is modkilled, the fate of that notebook would not be told to anyone as to not infer the modkilled player's alignment or role.

Btw, when I have time, I can edit the newly confirmed alignments in that analysis and probably come up with more info.
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Post Post #3103 (isolation #165) » Sun Jul 26, 2009 7:14 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Stephoscope wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:I think you are town.
You "put me at L-1". What's changed since then? Lamont's still claiming I'm the lynch.

L
Your claim is provable.

Btw I only faked putting you at L-1, remember?
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Post Post #3110 (isolation #166) » Sun Jul 26, 2009 7:21 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Vote Wey
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Post Post #3281 (isolation #167) » Thu Jul 30, 2009 6:50 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Gorrad wrote: I'm Mogi. 1-shot daycop. Lamont's town ><. I get a percentage based on how likely they are to be Kira-aligned. Lamont has a 1% chance.
Ok, Gorrad is town and so is Lamont.
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Post Post #3306 (isolation #168) » Fri Jul 31, 2009 1:18 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

zwetschenwasser wrote:I was also recruited into the SPK night 1.
SPK? Not the Task Force?
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Post Post #3314 (isolation #169) » Fri Jul 31, 2009 1:09 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Xylthixlm wrote:I see no reason to
dis
believe the thing about SPK, but it doesn't confirm zwet's alignment at all.
Fixed to reflect my opinion.
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Post Post #3365 (isolation #170) » Sat Aug 01, 2009 7:02 pm

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Kairyuu wrote: That said, I am considering both you and zwet confirmed town now, so I'll respect your wishes.
Why are you considering Zwet confirmed?
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Post Post #3398 (isolation #171) » Mon Aug 03, 2009 6:37 pm

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Starbuck wrote:Where has KMD been?
Not online. I've been mostly hanging out with someone. And working.
Xylthixlm wrote:Another thing... magnus_orion, pro-Kira, was killed by a Death Note last night. So either Vi was an SK, killed magnus, and was killed by magnus's mafia, or there are at least three scum factions.
Does your definition of "scum" include Shinigami?
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Post Post #3458 (isolation #172) » Tue Aug 04, 2009 3:14 pm

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Xylthixlm wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:Does your definition of "scum" include Shinigami?
Yes. Anyone who can carry a death note is scum in this game.
Then it's been proven that at least three scum groups exist.
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Post Post #3461 (isolation #173) » Tue Aug 04, 2009 3:55 pm

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Xyl, any reason for that or is it a true "wild ass-guess"? And if it's just a guess, why say it?
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Post Post #3503 (isolation #174) » Thu Aug 06, 2009 11:05 am

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V/LA. Don't even have time to sleep til Sunday.
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Post Post #3569 (isolation #175) » Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:31 pm

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Kairyuu is town. Stop voting him.
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Post Post #3700 (isolation #176) » Mon Aug 17, 2009 10:34 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Vote MrBuddyLee


100% sure of this vote.

MrBuddyLee -1 (Kmd4390)
Not voting: zwetschenwasser, Kairyuu, mykonian, MrBuddyLee, Gorrad, Knight of Cydonia, Starbuck, DeathNote, Stephoscope, xylthixlm, LlamaFluff, WeyounsLastClone, Lamont_Cranston

But this makes it clear that there really is another notebook out there.


With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
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Post Post #3765 (isolation #177) » Tue Aug 18, 2009 3:20 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Lamont_Cranston wrote:
@KMD:
What makes you think MBL is scummy? I know he has deliberately lurked alot, what else?
I was 40% on ThAd, but am 100% on MBL.
Lamont_Cranston wrote:Oh btw, can we say that Llamafluff is now confirmed town? He brought a case against scum out of nowhere...
No. Absolutely not. Llama once bussed noth buddies in a mini all the way to a lynch. We won that game because the town made the assumption that you are making.
Stephoscope wrote:
Lamont_Cranston wrote:
Stephoscope wrote:He is a daymason with Misa Amane.
He wins if Misa Amane survives.


If Misa Amane's death note (I'm guessing she started with one too) winds up in someone else's hands,
Llama can instead communicate with that other player.
If the death note passes does that change his wincon?
No. But I neglected to mention: the first instance of Misa Amane's imminent death leads to Llama dying in sacrifice to rescue her (sorry for the clumsy wording, I'm just making absolutely sure I'm not quoting role PMs)
So does he die instead of Misa or do they both die? If we lynch Starbuck, and she is Misa, will Llama be lynched instead?

Also, if anyone missed it:
MRBUDDYLEE IS SCUM. 100% SURE THAT HE IS ALIGNED WITH KIRA


So, we have:
MBL- 100% scum
Xyl- Night talked last night according to Kairyuu. Denies this accusation.
Llama- Rem according to Stepho
Starbuck- Misa according to KoC. Still could have been someone else trying to make this exact situation happen.

I doubt Llama kept his note knowing that he was about to be investigated. Lynching him is pointless, but it's nice to know he's Shinigami.

Misa may or may not actually be Starbuck. Decent lynch, but not or best.

Xyl straight up lied unless Kairyuu is lying. One of the two is more than likely scum.

MBL is the only guaranteed scum I have, so I'm leaving my vote on him.
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Post Post #3769 (isolation #178) » Tue Aug 18, 2009 4:18 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Lamont_Cranston wrote:
@KMD:
So you are saying that if MBL isn't scum, you are?
If MBL isn't scum, something weird is going on. There are a few possibilities, but what I have is that MBL is 100% Kira aligned. I
would
be willing to say that if we lynch MBL and he's town, you can lynch me tomorrow.
Lamont_Cranston wrote:You do realize you could be derailing the town badly if you are wrong??
Yeah, but 100%. What are the chances?
Lamont_Cranston wrote: I'm trying to figure out a way though where it would make sense that you would need to derail a Llama lynch...
You mean where I'm scum who wants Llama alive? Only if I'm Misa. I'm not though.
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Post Post #3881 (isolation #179) » Wed Aug 19, 2009 2:21 pm

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Lamont_Cranston wrote: Don't the Death Note rules state that the only time a Shingami can be killed is if they prevent a DEATH NOTE KILL on a human??
Technically, if a Shinigami uses their Note to extend the life of a human, the Shinigami will die.
MrBuddyLee wrote:I'm not scum. In fact, I can prove it, but we'll have to waste a lynch to do it. The question is, is KMD's error an honest one, or is this an attempt by scum to endgame? KMD, if you're town you're missing something in your results.
My results are that you are 100% likely to be pro-Kira.

You know what? Time to fullclaim. I'm Hirokazu Ukita, cop. I can investigate a player each night and get a percentage of how likely they are to be aligned with Kira. I got 40% on ThAd N1. I missed N2. And I got 100% on MBL last night.

So the only way I am wrong is if it was busdriven, if my results are somehow innaccurate (sanity?), MBL is a miller of some sort, or some other mechanic that I'm not realizing.

Also, I mentioned a theory earlier. My theory is that all town aligned players were weakened versions of cops. My character didn't make sense as the only cop in the game and it fits the theme for multiple cop type roles.

-------------

Lamont,
ARE YOU MISA?
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Post Post #3951 (isolation #180) » Fri Aug 21, 2009 10:57 am

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MrBuddyLee wrote:I'm Demegawa, unlynchable townie. I'm in it for the ratings.

I guess this wasted lynch is going to happen, but at least we know who to hit next.

vote: KMD
So many holes. Notably Demegawa being "anti-Kira" which is the name of the town's faction. I see that MBL has been shot and was scum though by looking at the OP quickly. This vig is my hero after shooting Vi and MBL right after my votes and being right both times. XD
Lamont_Cranston wrote:

Lamont_Cranston
-- 99% confirmed town
Are you basing this on something or just "I know myself to be town"? Why 99%?

Lamont_Cranston wrote: Why didn't Xyl just go along with the night chat idea? Why did he make up a claim where he has no night chat?
Because then he'd have to claim who he's talking to. If not now, he still has to eventually.
Kairyuu wrote:If he had admitted to talking with someone last Night, then he would have had to tell us who it was. If he lied, then the person he claimed to have talked to would have called him on it and he would have been speedlynched. If he would have told the truth, it would mean revealing the name of one of his scumbuddies, and if either of them died, the other would be the automatic next target.
^Exactly this. This is why I'm likely to vote Xyl at the end of my post.
Xylthixlm wrote: Please explain why I wouldn't go for the patented Knight of Cydonia "I have a night-talk with someone and I think they're scum but they won't tell me who they are" claim?
What are the chances that both you and KoC are telling the truth in this case?
DeathNote wrote:Just something to throw out there... why does everyone assume that the Day Vig is pro town. Destroying a deathnote is completely up to him and if he already has one, then he has to pass it on or destroy it. It is possible that he has a deathnote already and just destroyed this last one so to limit the chance of him dying, although this is slightly unlikely since we didn't have two kills last night. Just thinking aloud.
They have no reason to kill Vi and MBL if they are scum. They are either town or Shinigami and are completely awesome either way[/buddying]
Xylthixlm wrote:If I was going to fake a claim I wouldn't need to out anyone to do it.
What happens if we eventually massclaim and nobody has claimed the ability to night talk with you? If you say you don't know who they are, you are probably just copying KoC's claim. There is nothing that you could have claimed and survived the whole game on that involves night talk. Well, unless you include a dead player, but how believable is that?
Lamont_Cranston wrote:Umm, wow. That doesn't sound so good. Well they both said they would be willing to be lynched but Kai's statement is much more convincing:
xyl wrote:I wouldn't mind investigating one of us tonight. I am not going to suggest who because it's pure WIFOM; let the investigator pick. If don't have any real objection to agreeing to be lynched if Kairyuu somehow comes up town, as long as Kairyuu agrees to the same.
Kai wrote:@Lamont:

1) I would be fine with it, but keep in mind that it wastes an investigation when lynching one of us would be far faster.

2) I don't care who get's investigated. If it's me it will be town, and if it's Xyl it will not.

3) If the investigation clears me, then yes, you have my full permission to assist me in lynching Xyl. Then again, you can help me lynch him today instead and save time. Hell, you can lynch me and have the dayvig take Xyl down right off the bat tomorrow if you REALLY want to.

@all: the scumteam has been considerably weakened over the last 2 game Days. Motivation for me to put myself into a 1-1 situation is completely nonexistant, as I have drawn only slight suspicion over the course of the game, and it would lead directly to my death even if i got Xyl lynched first. On the other hand, motivation for Xyl to put himself into a 1-1 with a claimed cop, when the alternative is telling the town the name of at least one of his scumbuddies is CONSIDERABLY higher. Correct play for scum in Xyl's situation is to call me a liar. He will die and flip scum regardless, but at the same time he has the potential to take down a cop in the process AND doesn't have to throw a scumbuddy in the line of fire. If you look at the motivations which led to this situation being a 1-1, the choice is quite clear as to who stands to gain the most from lying.
Which one sounds more townie to all of you?
TBH, scum are more likely to overexplain.. You're right, Xyl isn't making this easy. He's a good player though.

Lamont, why did you ignore my accusation about being Misa?

Meh, I'm more likely to end up voting Xyl than Kairyuu, but I'd like to let this play out a little more first.
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Post Post #3985 (isolation #181) » Sat Aug 22, 2009 7:56 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Gorrad wrote: 2) Kairyuu's claim makes no sense thanks to QTs. If people give fake names in the topics (Recall, KoC's claim relies on being anonymous) then the mod can't know who talked and who didn't.
Vote: Kairyuu
.
Wait, how would the Mod not know?

------------------

Xyl, why do you assume Kairyuu is lying? If you flip the same way as L, shouldn't Kairyuu get a result saying that you can night talk?

-----------------

Pretty sure Lamont is Misa. Of course this relies on KoC telling the truth..
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Post Post #3998 (isolation #182) » Sat Aug 22, 2009 12:43 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Xylthixlm wrote:
Kmd4390 wrote:Xyl, why do you assume Kairyuu is lying? If you flip the same way as L, shouldn't Kairyuu get a result saying that you can night talk?
According to the mod, if I understood the response and Kairyuu's claim correctly, no.

BREAKING EDIT: The mod has sent me a PM about this a few hours ago
clarifying
confusing his earlier answer that a night-talk investigator would only learn about actual night talk, saying that that was a general answer rather than an answer about how it interacted with my role. (WTF? That was
the whole point of the question!
)
But if you come up the same way as L, and Stepho is L and talked last night, shouldn't Kairyuu get the exact result he got? Why is this reason to suspect him rather than confirm his role?
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Post Post #3999 (isolation #183) » Sat Aug 22, 2009 12:43 pm

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Vote Xyl
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Post Post #4006 (isolation #184) » Sat Aug 22, 2009 1:16 pm

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Lamont_Cranston wrote:Umm, KMD Xyl unvoted??
Wow missed that...
Xylthixlm wrote: Because I checked with the mod and the mod gave an answer that I read as saying my role would not affect Kairyuu's result!
So what is the point in your role then? You show up how L does. Assuming L is town, a normal cop sees you as town. The only thing that makes sense if this doesn't affect Kairyuu's role is that you are investigation immune. With several investigative roles running around, that makes sense.
Xylthixlm wrote:Except now the mod tells me that his answer didn't actually answer my question about whether my role would affect the result. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
...

I don't know what to do. I don't see this being faked, but it just makes more sense for you to be scum than town.

Unvote


I need to figure this out.........
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Post Post #4035 (isolation #185) » Sun Aug 23, 2009 6:56 pm

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Unvote, Vote DeathNote
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Post Post #4049 (isolation #186) » Mon Aug 24, 2009 2:24 am

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Starbuck wrote:KMD, why so quick to jump on the Gorrad train?
DeathNote reminds me of The Internet in Family Guy. TI was scum. He hasn't really given opinions. Just kind of followed the flow of the game.
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Post Post #4053 (isolation #187) » Mon Aug 24, 2009 7:57 am

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"I'm always scummy" isn't a defense.
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Post Post #4058 (isolation #188) » Mon Aug 24, 2009 9:02 am

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Unvote
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Post Post #4059 (isolation #189) » Mon Aug 24, 2009 9:03 am

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KoC and Kairyuu within 13 minutes followed by Lamont requesting a hammer. Looking back for a few things.
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Post Post #4060 (isolation #190) » Mon Aug 24, 2009 9:09 am

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Lamont voting DN already? Check.
KoC no posts since last DN vote? Check.
Kairyuu completely flipping his stance to follow a pretty weak lynch? Check.
Lamont coming in and asking for the hammer? K, maybe scum, maybe not.

Conclusions:
KoC and Kairyuu are likely scum here. More Kairyuu than KoC. Lamont could still go either way. DN is town. There is another scum who they expected to hammer.

Vote Kairyuu
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Post Post #4062 (isolation #191) » Mon Aug 24, 2009 9:32 am

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I don't think drawing attention matters in a quickhammer if we are in LYLO.

You call it general consensus. This wagon popped up over what? A couple of days? Rather than analyze why it comes up, you jumped on and placed DN at L-1.
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Post Post #4094 (isolation #192) » Mon Aug 24, 2009 6:01 pm

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V/LA for two weeks.
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Post Post #4364 (isolation #193) » Tue Sep 08, 2009 4:27 am

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Sorry if this was already answered in that huge post, but what were my percentages based on?
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Post Post #4389 (isolation #194) » Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:56 am

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Kmd4390 wrote:Sorry if this was already answered in that huge post, but what were my percentages based on?
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Post Post #4391 (isolation #195) » Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:59 am

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Hmm. Wish I'd seen 40% as a town result rather than a reason to suspect ThAd...
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