Choose Carefully Mafia: (Game Over)

[The Fonz]

Hi, I'm the ribwich replacement.

I am, as usual, opposed to massclaim.

[The Fonz]

GRRRRR.

Get through several pages, thinking 'on meta basis, this does not feel like town STD' only to find was replaced and killed. And I was right. I actually hate myself right now.

[The Fonz]

OK. Since either the neighbours have to be scum, which i think unlikely, or everyone else is, I'm actually OK with massclaim, in any order.
_________________
Santos, Neighbor Neutral Survivor, modkilled Day 1
Riceballtail, Townie, killed Night 1
*SCUM* oEJo, Corsican Neighbor, failed to be lynched by a Rope Day 1, Lynched by a Gun Day 2
No one died Night 2
*SCUM* Detspeed, Sicilian Neighbor, lynched by a Rope Day 3
Kairyuu, Townie, killed Night 3
Moses le fou, Cop, killed Night 3
ZTR, Vanilla Townie Neutral Survivor, modkilled Day 4
Empking, Townie, killed Night 4
hp [leaves], Neighbor, killed Night 4

CarnCarn 39 good instincts
and again in 45

However the softclaim in 54 sucks ass.

Mixed feelings on STD's 70.

Like 101

Yeah, this game seems large enough to have 2 scum teams.

WHAT? The flavour pretty much says outright there are two.

120 is BS.

BM FEELS town.

173 looks like town armlx.

188 is trying to be too clever armlx. Though there is a less specific point... the number of scum neighbours is likely to be the same either side.

Lots of content not directly relating to lynching scum from STD. This feels like scum-STD to me. He's not nearly as proactive as i remember the town version of him being.

262 is the correct lynch methodology.

323 is pretty dumb, but a towntell. Sadly.

SP looks scummy. Didn't feel like a ploy to me. Oh, hindsight.

Socio: Who do you suggest as scum then?

STD.

I see London, I see Nablus... I see something that looks a lot like a bus.

Zazie... I need to go look at X. Does she?

I find in interesting that as soon as I utter a name, that others jump upon him.

What I find interesting is how you say you think someone's scum, don't vote them, and then use this kind of passive-aggressive defence of him when other people vote him.

Vote: Save The Dragons
Vote: Rope

For Santos MKII, rereplacing into the game, call it a hunch.

Vote: Santos MK II
Vote: Rope

But for the sake of today for lynching obvious scum:

Vote: oEJo
Vote: Gun

Hi. I'm big, red, and have a conductor. (Seriously, how is this not incredibly obvious?)

Anyone on the Detspeed wagon based on his single post is weak sauce.

Let's look out for nervous rival scum in response to this...

919 = v.good catch by Zazie, suggests town. At very least, not-partner.

954= Santos II looks a good bet to be scum with SP/STD.

Rapid turnaround to 971 confirms this.

So I disappear for a few weeks and I'm auto-scum? You guys are lacking logic. Although, I don't really see a way I can defend myself since the Townie role is in the first post. If the choice is really between Santos and I, you should take the guy whose been band wagoning on every suspicion since he got himself off of the hook.

Townie softclaim breeds anger.
_______________________

I am fairly strongly convinced that the gun-immune scum are Santos II and SocioPath.

[The Fonz]

Real quick-

either the neighbours are scum, or 4 of the remaining five are, assuming 3/3 in terms of each scumgroup.

The neighbours are quasi-confirmed, since it's pretty clear there's not one scum among them for reasons of symmetry- there remains the outside chance of both, but i'm not buying it.

ZazieR is your scumbuddy.

[The Fonz]

Quite honestly, he did.

Wouldn't suspect you at all but for the sheer mathematics of the scenario.

[The Fonz]

Scumgroups of two in a sixteen-player seem unlikely, though not quite impossible given scum perks here- and two different players strike me as strongly tied to STD/Det.

[The Fonz]

True. But the neighbour-balance thing is an obvious asset to town. Here we get into OGM in terms of whether or not Bird anticipated this.

[The Fonz]

And with 2/2, it's not that unlikely you can win without ever lynching correctly, unless there's some kind of additional anti-crosskill mechanic.

[The Fonz]

Well, it's an anti-nightkill in general mechanic. Though *deleted since i've just realised how utterly stupid it is to tell the scum what to do at night.*

[The Fonz]

Popcorning seems fine by me.

Alternatively, i could go now.

Which do you prize more- getting it done soon, or getting the order you want?

[The Fonz]

I prefer to wait with a massclaim. This game started with 16 players. Most of the time, a 16-player game has 4 scum. That means that were not at lylo yet. I personally am in favor to do a massclaim when were at lylo.

How many scum a normal game with one scumgroup has is really irrelevant. With two groups, 3-3 rather than 2-2 would be balanced. However, there are significant scum-favouring mechanics in play here.
If we started with scumgroups of three, the town is already in the minority.

It comes down to the following: the symmetry argument makes 2-man scumgroups particularly weak. You're effectively playing, in the best case for scum, a 10-1-1 if the town has to lynch all the neighbours to get all the scum neighbours. Do we believe bird anticipated this, or not?

Yes, you and CC are most likely Neighbours. However, your allignment isn't confirmed. Armlx, could you explain to me why you're not going for a CC lynch?

Have you, like, not read any of armlx's posts? It's basically certain that both scumgroups have the same number of neighbours in them. Therefore, CC being scum would imply armlx being scum: so it's obvious why armlx isn't pushing that.

Regarding post 1047:
2 scum teams of 2 make sense. Each team has a certain method to be killed with. This decreases the chances of each lynch that it's a scum lynch. The scum also has to decide at night what their target is, scum or town. If they guess wrong, their will be a NK less. But this also gives scum information. So I think that the set-up would be balanced with 2 scum teams of 2.

See the above argument about the neighbours.

Also, armlx saw someone as well as likely scum member with STD. He was also wrong about that. So it's strange that you use this as argument for 2 scumteams of 3 players.

This doesn't make any sense. Please clarify.

[The Fonz]

The clarification:

Scumgroups of two in a sixteen-player seem unlikely, though not quite impossible given scum perks here- and two different players strike me as strongly tied to STD/Det.

If I read this quote correctly, you're saying that two players seem strongly connected to STD/Detspeed. This seems an argument why you think that there are 2 scum teams of 3 players. However, Armlx thought that ZTR was connected with STD. In the end, it appeared that Armlx was wrong with his conclusion about ZTR. As you have read the game, I find it strange that you would use this as an argument of 2 scumteams of 3 as it went wrong during the game already.

So, I get this correctly, you believe that because armlx read another player wrong, (a read I didn't share) then that must mean my reads are wrong.



I mean, sure, it's possible i'm wrong. But I don't see how that armlx thing has any logical connection to your argument at all.

[The Fonz]

Nice of Santos II to sign his own death warrant.

My money would be on the rope being the correct method.

[The Fonz]

I play with sigs off.

[The Fonz]

I'm here, waiting for ZazieR to claim next.

This.

This.

[The Fonz]

VT.

Sociopath

to claim next.

[The Fonz]

Vanilla.

(LOL vengeful townie would be awesome though).

[The Fonz]

I don't understand how the town can win.

Hypothetically, if another townie is killed wouldn't the 2 mafias eventually hold majority? Or does one mafia or the other have to kill the other if say only one townie, one Corsican and one Sicilian are left?

In a 1-1-1 endgame, the rational thing for the townie to do is force no-lynch, then the optimal scumplay is to kill each other. Result = town win.

[The Fonz]

^^^

Whilst I don't believe multiple scumgroups need to be exactly balanced as long as each gets a decent shot, the setup of this game strongly suggests symmetry.

[The Fonz]

From the amounts of neighbors and pairings, this game seems to rely heavily on symmetry, with a cop each having the ability to find half the scum and useless for the other half.

Symmetry is a good point. Unfortunately for you, one uninhibited cop is just as symmetrical as two limited ones.

I don't trust the claim. And frankly, i'd be amazed that a cop who missed an investigation would be left unreplaced to miss another.

Then again, the idea of Santos II as Sicilian fits with the read i have on his role, as being tied to STD/Detspeed.

[The Fonz]

I'd also point out that, if SP is fakeclaiming, it's in his interest to get out the 'right' and not the 'wrong' method for killing Santos.

[The Fonz]

If he's wrong, he's outed as scum.

[The Fonz]

Now you're getting it.

Vote: Santos II
Vote: Rope

[The Fonz]

There's a reason we have lynch all liars.

[The Fonz]

Right. This seems fairly easy.

Vote: SP

The only question is if the scumgroups started out 2/2 or three/three. If it's 2/2, then gun is best... if three-three, i'd back SP being Sicilian rather than Corsican.

I suppose only one death makes me lean to a 2/2 scenario (well, that and that PF looks town to me) although that raises the question of why on earth Santos would have thought that town can't win, if they had five members alive and only two scum.

[The Fonz]

Actually,

vote: Gun

Because in the scenario where he's Sicilian, the Corsicans basically HAVE to shoot him tonight anyway.

[The Fonz]

I've just had an eureka moment.

unvote, vote ZazieR

My logic is this:

1. SP is definitely scum.
2. If we have only two members of each scum faction, he is Corsican.
3. If we began with three in each faction, however, he is much more likely Sicilian.
4. If he is the last mafia, it doesn't matter whether we lynch him today or tomorrow. Therefore, lynching him with the corsican-killing method doesn't make any sense.
5. However, if he is sicilian, we have two corsicans still alive, so they should be the priority. The corsicans know SP is sicilian, and need to kill him tonight to get best chance of winning.
6. Therefore, it does not make sense to lynch SP today AT ALL.
7. PokerFace has made out that he believes, as I do, that if we were facing 3-3, then the likelihood is Zazie corsican and SP sicilian- essentially parroting me, except for switching which of him and me is accused of being scum.
8. Therefore, and given the inherent logic of the above, poker should have no difficulty in joining me in running up Zazie, using the Gun.

hmm...

If 3/3 then Socio is likly Sicilian as explained earlier. Socio acted like he suspected STD/Detspeed and Santos2 because they were his scum buddies. Fonz and Zazy are corsicians by my earlier logic.

[The Fonz]

I don't understand point 3.

I have previously noted how I believe SP to be strongly tied to Det/StD.

The worst case scenario here from my perspective is if somehow the corsicans are actually PF and SP, and even that's no worse than trying to lynch SP and failing.

armlx, my question for you is this: how likely do you believe it is that the Corsicans are PF and myself?

[The Fonz]

His post immediately after the scum claim strongly suggests three person mafia groups. He was suggesting that the best the town can do is get to 1-1-1 if the scum kill even one more town player. At the time, there were seven alive. If it were 5-1-1 at that point, that's just obviously untrue. If three-two-two, then even with a scum lynch it goes thee-two-one overnight. Assume one crosskill and one dead town, that puts you at 2-1-1 in the morning: town can't afford to lynch. (Or at 2-2-0 if the crosskill goes the other way, and scum have won already).

In 2-1-2, however, town's incentive is to lynch a Corsican. So, yeah. We need either SP's vote (assuming he shows up at all) or armlx's to get this plan through.

[The Fonz]

armlx, my question for you is this: how likely do you believe it is that the Corsicans are PF and myself?

After those last couple posts, I'm thinking it is possible.

Listen, 2-1-2 town still can win if we choose alignment wrong on SP. SP's best option is to shoot other scum group, other scum group shoots SP obv, we end up in 2-1. So, I would rather play today as if its 2-2 and maximize my chances of winning in the set up where I have the highest chance of winning.

Yes, that is a possibility. But it applies equally to guessing wrong on

anyone

who is scum, so it isn't a reason to lynch him specifically- and of the three players that aren't me or you, I think he's least likely to be corsican, and therefore the worst lynch. It may be in the interest of SP to shoot the other scum group, but a) he doesn't know who the other scum are and b) he may have given up and flaked.

If we play as if it is 2-2, we can

still

lynch SP tomorrow, so this plan does not harm our chances in 2-2 AT ALL. (Zazie dies, you die, myself, Poker and SP are left). And the evidence we have suggests 3-3... because it's the only way that Santos' proclamation about the town having 'no chance of winning' makes any sense. So when you're town, you should play to maximise the town's chances in the scenario that is most likely.

The worst case scenario is that we lynch town, and we're in 3-3, because that's autoloss. But I know with a lynch of anyone but me or you, that's not possible. PF will claim the same.

So that's the point of asking you about your thoughts on me/poker. Because, from your perspective, that's the only scenario where we're worse off from lynching Zazie today than failing to lynch SP is that one.

[The Fonz]

Don't believe that for a second. If she were town, she wouldn't care whether SP is telling the truth or not- never mind that he obviously isn't because his claim contradicts the game rules.

[The Fonz]

Vote: Sociopath
Vote: Gun

Because it's obvious. Nothing has changed since you were certain we had to lynch him yesterday, arm. His claim stills contradicts the rules of the game. You're quite aware of how incredibly convenient it is that SocioPath has declared a guilty in lylo, as well. (I know there's a ton of wifom here too, but PokerFace dying over you is incredibly obviously his work too. Look at poker's last post of yesterday. He's convinced SP is scum. Why would I bother pulling that particular wifom, when you were the most obvious innocent left, AND poker was clearly going to vote with me if left alive).

armlx, lurking around waiting isn't going to work when a) the arguments are this simple and b) I'm on LA. Just lynch him and win the game for town already.

[The Fonz]

Also, why didn't you full claim?

Why would I? There was no possibility of being caught in a lie, and the power was only useful if scum didn't know about it. Town bulletproofs shouldn't ever claim as such, unless there is the possibility of a vig.

Good game everyone. Fonz had and awesome plan and it would have stopped 3 if there was three. When he came up with it I knew he had to be town, but the only way I could convince him I was town too was to follow through with it. Sorry about the lynch there Zazy. You were at the wrong place at the wrong time but it wasn't like we weren't gauranteed to beat 2/2 by that point already so hope you ain't mad.

The beauty of the plan, for me, was that even if you were scum you couldn't possibly disagree with it without outing yourself, because to oppose the plan would have contradicted the statements you yourself made the previous day. If you were town, there was nothing to lose.

We could have lynched Socio a day before and won but I guess erroring with the side of caution wasn't so bad.

Necessary. If there are two possible setups, A and B, and you can improve your chances in A without harming them in B, you do it.