It would have been scum indicative, but not necessarily a slam dunk scum case. It's kind of like the alisae thing, where there is an explanation for why it could be the case, but we would have had to make the decision of whether that 20% chance was reasonable doubt. I think anything higher than 90% funding is reasonable to rely on and anything over 60% is potentially viable, but I'm also willing to take risks like that and roll the dice. It's why I enjoy craps as much as I do. I know, on an intellectual level, that what I'm doing is just spending money to have a good time, but I still play the riskier bets on occasion because I like the gamble.In post 4247, Lady Lambdadelta wrote: Wouldn't no result have forced us to kill you? Like, mechabically speaking.
Election! | GAME OVER
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"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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As my pappy always used to say: "Who needs a house when you have crabs!""He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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I see this and am acknowledging it, as that should count as game advancement so I don’t get prodded.In post 4275, GuiltyLion wrote: on the meta point Bingle - this is not exactly what you asked for, but I think it's actually a compelling example. Some years back I played a newbie game where scum!Titus quick hammered the claimed doctor on D1. In my mind, that's an objective scum claim, so I entered D2 pushing Titus hard, and was met with a bunch of newbies not understanding how scummy Titus was. I got riled up and pissed off and town eliminated me instead.
here's my opening post on D2, and I encourage you to read through the thread and watch what happens when I'm met with pushback, how frustrated I get and how much I desperately keep trying to appeal to people about how obviously scum Titus is and why she needs to go. It's the same thing happening here.
I spent the day celebrating the news that my cousin is officially in remission from what we expected to be terminal cancer and didn’t get to this. Sorry."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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It wouldn't, actually. First of all, trading a scum player for a cop shot is effectively forcing the cop shot to be reliable. Town wins if scum makes those trades.In post 4290, furtiveglance wrote: I think it would be a decent idea for scum Treasurer to just fund no one and get voted out the next day
Second, the treasurer wouldn't live through the end of the day. If they don't fund, we get the info they won't fund and then immediately lim them. I'm not sure how you wouldn't know how that works, weren't you on the D1 council?"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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I mean... people tend to find math arguments unapproachable unless you can explicitly relate them to something, but your calculus isn't right here, which is problematic to me.In post 4270, GuiltyLion wrote: I think Alisae lying is clearly the most likely explanation, it seems that opinion is not widely shared, how do I go about convincing people it's the most likely explanation? I could do the math, ask people to assign probabilities to P(scum have a role blocker), P(scum role blocker is active on N3) - (does it need funding? is it X-shot? would they have used it on N1 or N2?), and P(scum correctly guessed Alisae was doc), and then do the actual math to show the compounding unlikelihood once you take all those things together.
The assumptions that go into aliscum are: Ali rolled scum(3/9), Ali decided to risk being risk eir slot on a gambit to kill the cop (not unreasonable as a scum choice) (P(A)), Ali decided to fakeclaim a doc shot instead of claiming that e WIFOM'd the third role at [person] as a gambit to try to catch scum off guard(P(B)).
I don't think the assumption that as scum Ali would trade emself for a pseudoconf slot with a cop shot is an unreasonable one if Skrew is town, but it's also not a given. If anything I think it's less of a given than a scumteam deciding that it's a good idea to try to fake a guilty result.
Which brings us back to: How likely is it that scum had a way of messing with the doc going through.
Ways I can think of a scumteam being able to kill through a doc:
Roleblock the Doc
Strongman
Interfere with Funding
Ali's point about FTC is 100% a relevant argument because it's functionally an argument that something along those lines exists. The argument that this isn't follow the cop because scum can mess with the cop through funding is silly because even in the case of town ONLY being able to fund the cop, scum is restricted to playing whack-a-mole with the cops/results. It's kind of the whole point of our "elect a scummy cop" strategy. If scum doesn't play ball and doesn't have a way to interfere, then the game is hugely broken for town due to what is essentially ftc. If scum does play ball, we're in functional nightless, where EV says that the perfect balance is 12:4 but observational balance is closer to 8:4. It is impossible for town to have run out of funds funding only the cop prior to today. Literally. The minimum possible roll for funding each day is explicitly 10*n where n is the number of players. The odds of us not having enough to both cop and track on D1 was less than 1 in 10 billion. Technically, it could happen.
We know that we have more potential power than just a cop per night. So we have more power than a setup which is explicitly townsided, which was the entire point of my NA plan. We know scum has some amount of power, and thus almost certainly some way of fucking with our results. That's a given. From a townAli POV, eir role definitely failed in a way designed to get them limmed and you jumped into the thread with the clear agenda of achieving eir lim. It seems entirely reasonable that that would lead to a scumread on you.
Roleblocking, specifically would require the scumteam to pick out Ali as the protective source. Interfering with the funding *might* require that, depending on how it works. Strongman wouldn't require it at all. LLD and Uno would have known the person who could have been protecting. A scum team with notAli, notLLD, notUNO, notBingle is a pretty small scumpool. It leaves only two town the remaining 4 people. Even if the scumteam is in the other five entirely, it's not unreasonable for them to have guessed that LLD would have used the "very strong power". AD's post of "I hope LLD didn't use the very powerful ability" at the very beginning of D3 makes me think a scumteam would be more likely to guess Ali would doc over LLD. An uninformed scumteam with me would have guessed that specifically because it was known Ali had a doc and possible that Uno had a doc, so all things equal Ali was more likely to be the one protecting.
tl;dr
The probability of scum being able to actively fuck with this result if Ali is town is actually pretty high, imo. Which leads back to: would Ali, who was willing to risk eir slot to kill a cop fake the result failing instead of saying "I thought scum would assume the cop was protected so I used a watcher or whatever on AD. Bingle visited him and made the kill."
Which leads us back to: who is the scumteam if Ali is scum here?"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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I'd much prefer it be the first thing you do, tbh. I'm not sure I want to play this game if it results in your death. Seems like a pretty shit trade.In post 4296, Thestatusquo wrote: STD has requested replacement and I will find one if its the last thing I do."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Hm. I agree that the situation is a good parallel for GL, I'm not sure it's a good parallel for Ali/Titus. There's a pretty big gap between D1 QH and XLO-1 soft guilty.In post 4275, GuiltyLion wrote: on the meta point Bingle - this is not exactly what you asked for, but I think it's actually a compelling example. Some years back I played a newbie game where scum!Titus quick hammered the claimed doctor on D1. In my mind, that's an objective scum claim, so I entered D2 pushing Titus hard, and was met with a bunch of newbies not understanding how scummy Titus was. I got riled up and pissed off and town eliminated me instead.
here's my opening post on D2, and I encourage you to read through the thread and watch what happens when I'm met with pushback, how frustrated I get and how much I desperately keep trying to appeal to people about how obviously scum Titus is and why she needs to go. It's the same thing happening here.
For transparency: I believe the failed doctor to be on the same level as tracking a previously claimed investigate to the kill of a reasonable investigation target. If we had 2 mislims left, I'd already have voted Ali even if I was hard town reading em. Given we're at XLO-1, I think more caution is required.
I would have limmed you that game, no question. The absolute refusal to believe that someone might believe it to be a good idea to hammer a very scummy individual who claimed doc at L-1 instead of waiting for a CC seems naïve at best. Like, I would always wait for that claim and treat it as a free pass to the next day, but I know there are people who would not, as town. I have played with people who would not, as town. There are plenty of people who would advocate parsing the believability of the claim before waiting to see if there was a reason to CC, and your aggression there actively hurt the odds that Titus would go down. Your argument there (and here) looks more like achieving a lim by any means rather than actually trying to figure out if the lim is on scum.
This does tell me that 4 years ago you WOULD play this the way you have if you believed the missing kill was a lockscum case. If you have a more recent example I'm interested in seeing it, but for now I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt and taking your aggression here as NAI.
Do you think it is likely scum have a way to fuck with results?"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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This. LLD claimed a loan of $60. That means we're in the hole $90. Our minimum income from taxes is $90 which is incredibly unlikely. We still get to fund almost two roles entirely if that is the case by taking out a $200 loan. If whoever is treasurer disagrees with that, it's a 1v1 with LLD, mechanically, which is solved tomorrow when the next treasurer gets to look at the balances.In post 4304, SleepyKrew wrote: The role matters. Who fills the role today doesn’t. They either do what the town collectively agrees or they get limmed tomorrow.
The treasurer is a day action. Say they give me $0 so I can't act and claim they gave $100, I get to blow the whistle right there before elimination. Even if they make the decisions town wants, if we think they're scum we don't lose anything from eliminating them after they act, because they will already have used their power. If they lie about their budget, again it's a 1v1 tomorrow when the next treasurer is explicitly informed of how much money the previous treasurer left in the bank or a 1v1 today when the funding doesn't add up. So basically, regardless of who treasurer is the only way they can actually use the role is exactly the way we want them to use the role."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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I'm trying to figure out if I believe one of them is scum, actually. I think right now, I'd prefer to partner hunt.In post 4322, SleepyKrew wrote: Hope I’m not being presumptuous when I say we’re limming Ali or GL. Surely one of them is scum right"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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To elaborate, I'm pretty sure LLD town. I think I'm reasonably sure Skrew is town at the moment. I think at most 1 of Ali and GL is scum, but definitely not both.
That leaves me with 2-3 scum in a pool of sheep/Furtiveglance/GivingUpOnTheDragons/Unowen, which is at worst, even odds with limming in Ali/GL."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Shea said he'd sent the funding PM before nightstart in council 2. I assumed the same was true of the other nights.In post 4328, SleepyKrew wrote: Wait the people getting funded find out before lim? I need to double check when I got my funding PM"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Pay no attention to the Bingle behind the curtain. I just checked when I sent in my funding and it was 3 days before shea sent it out. Apparently I've been misremembering that for this entire dayphase.In post 4335, SleepyKrew wrote: that Shea post in the council is after the final votecount/thread lock/start of N2 in this thread"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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It still stands that we don't have to not eliminate the treasurer so they can submit, though. If we become absolutely sure of scum treasurer then we can lim them, we'd just want to flash lim them so they didn't submit a bonkers budget at the last minute."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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A ingle moment is the product of a ingle force and the perpendicular distance of said force from the center of rotation of a body, resulting in ingle torque.In post 4341, Alisae wrote: ingle moment"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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This isn't specifically @GL, either.In post 4298, Bingle wrote: Which leads us back to: who is the scumteam if Ali is scum here?
I'm interested in anyone's proposed teams based on both of Ali/GL scum scenarios. Let's not lose our momentum waiting for a STD replacement and get bogged down in another full playerlist refresh."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Eh. She's pretty night-and-day from her scumplay here and it's not like she's not had the opportunity to try to take over. You can argue that she's just sitting back and letting me run town into a wall, but she had that opportunity in unwnds(?) game when I was an IC and didn't. It's just not her style to be passive like that. She fought hard for thread control despite the IC who was poised to lead town off a cliff metaphorically as scum then, and this detachment is way more in line with the feelings you keep professing about feeling like the town is going off rail and no one is listening to you.In post 4348, GuiltyLion wrote: namely I was thinking about this post earlier and maybe I'm way off here but... I kinda don't understand why LLD would need to ask this, when I think about it. Alisae already said e was fully funded. If LLD is town and Alisae is scum, the main benefit is to prevent scum!Alisae from changing e's story later, but I dunno I am kinda feeling a vibe that it's a S/S interaction. I don't think I can properly articulate exactly why at the moment cause sleepy brain, but I'll be around tomorrow and I'll try to unpack a lot more"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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It's not so much a single game where she wasn't passive as theIn post 4357, GuiltyLion wrote: can you elaborate on this? I'm not really super familiar with LLD's scum play but I have the impression that she is an extremely skilled player. it seems like your argument is ultimately "LLD is passive here and scum!LLD isn't passive" but I don't know if a single game where scum!LLD wasn't passive is enough for me to be convinced she can't be scum herereasonshe is an extremely skilled player. LLD is very strong at taking control of the game. As scum, she uses this to get rid of people who are threats to her and to craft the game she needs to win. As town, she forces through her reads.
The biggest thing that makes her town here is that she's not been doing that. She got burned early and has lost the WIM town her needs to be effective. I've seen scum her literally power through aggressive attacks from her closest relationships on site, where town her is more susceptible to becoming disengaged and dropping out of the game."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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This, unironically.In post 4365, Lady Lambdadelta wrote: I know this is kind of self meta but that's a town tell for me. The fact I'm NOT IN CONTROL OF THE GAME is a massive towntell for me.
Like, it's not that LLD couldn't disengage from the thread as scum. She could just not play. But that's not going to increase her odds of winning. She'd be shooting herself in the foot, playing opposite to her strengths, in a lobby where I'm the only one who knows that about her and she thinks I'm scum and where she knows there's late game investigation."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Why? I'm assuming you read my bigpost about why I think the existence of such a role is very likely, so is there something about it that you disagree with?In post 4439, GuiltyLion wrote: frankly most of it really truly is that I don't believe it's anywhere near as likely that scum have a strongman or RBer as it is Alisae is just a wolf. like that's just how my brain sees these situations, the simple explanation with the most immediate evidence is one I trust, for me it's a big hurdle to go"well what if scum also have a way to counter a doc". I also don't like how Alisae tried to source the opening post as if that definitively proved the existence of counterplay when all it says is the most generic text about "abilities" to "effect" the game"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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I'm pushing GL? News to me. I'm pushing GL to be more thorough in his analysis, because if he's town here it's pretty surface level wrt the Ali situation and I'm not sure how I feel about that.In post 4361, furtiveglance wrote: Bingle's push on GL feels a bit muted/backseat and a lot of his contributions have been mech based
If anything, I'm trying to decide if this a world where this whole thing is T/T and scum are capitalizing on their PR usage. And yes, a lot of my contribution to the evaluation of a soft guilty is mechanical, because the soft guilty is mechanical.
In other, mechanical news, we should 100% be deciding on a budget before the lim here and we should be doing that ASAP, so whoever gets the treasurer role needs to out budget immediately."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Not off the top of my head, because it's not a linear readslist. I'm looking more at a full solve at the moment. The two townreads I feel fairly confident on are LLD and SKrew, in that order. GL is vaguely town from my earlier logic about his reactions to the xofelf slip conversation. Looking back yesterday I did agree with myself that he's probably town for that, although his approach to the Ali thing today has been pinging all sorts of warning bells.In post 4472, furtiveglance wrote: What are your actual reads? Can you do a list?
Ali isn't really towny, but I'm having a hard time reconciling the narrative that scum is willing to trade one-for-one with someone who isn't full confirmed and only might enter the day with a relevant result. Like, Ali scum hardspews SK town I think, and I think the scumteam would recognize that. Compound that with the fact that we were rapidly running out of potential protections, guaranteeing a guilty result on a not particularly scumread player seems like both a desperation move and a move that the scum team makes with the least townread of their group. I don't see Ali being in both of those situations to be super likely.
If I had to pull a dayvig here, it'd be sheep. Most of the remaining Plist seems okay with limming him without actually wanting him dead, which is a pretty comfortable place to keep a scumbuddy in your reads list."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Go for it.In post 4481, GuiltyLion wrote: Bingle/LLD, are there any concerns about sharing all the budgetary info in the main thread?"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Can confirm I only have one remaining ability."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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GTH, I think the individual scummiest player here is sheep. I'm probably willing to just sheep LLD on furtive atp. STD felt like town while he was active, which I guess would mean Uno would be scum if neither of Ali/GL is T/T and that's like... eh? Maybe?In post 4331, Bingle wrote: That leaves me with 2-3 scum in a pool of sheep/Furtiveglance/GivingUpOnTheDragons/Unowen, which is at worst, even odds with limming in Ali/GL.
The fact that I can't put together a coherent scumteam that I think is compelling in any of those situations is literally why I keep asking what people think scumteams look like. I'm not asking because I have this grand solve and I want someone to come along and then well akshually them, but because I actually want to know."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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The one liner response would be doing my absolute best to make sure we don't autolose.In post 4608, GuiltyLion wrote: ultimately the one liner would be I don't see what he's really doing to help town win"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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GL sheep uno? I did. It jives with my thought that LLD is emotionally tunneled on Furtive for killing her wim D1, but I'm not sold on GL scum. There's too many question marks there for me to want to unwrap that right now. What did you make of my thought that GL definitely thought the slip thing on xof was going to go through despite there being a clear counter to it in the thread?In post 4630, Alisae wrote: Did you see the team I put out?"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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I mean besides that I literally didn't play mafia for two years? RL. I've been putting in exactly as much effort as I can afford to give this game (actually I haven't but you don't get to eat into my 4k strategy game time). And I don't think saying I haven't made an impact on this game is fair at all, although it is 100% fair that my reads have been proscum. I crusaded both the xof and ircher lims. I was wrong on both of the xof and ircher lims, but they are definitely an impact I've had on this game.In post 4610, Lady Lambdadelta wrote: Why isn't Bingle a bigger presence this game..."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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The thing is I don't think GL scum pushes it that gung ho. Like, GL pays way more attention and sees that furtive claimed the vig prenight if he's scum I think.In post 4633, Alisae wrote: I think the slip thing probably comes from GL as both alignments tbh"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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wot?In post 4498, GuiltyLion wrote: 1) Andante being a cop with a result is valuable to town, and scum would be willing to gamble one of their own to kill her,
or
2) it's not that valuable, and the setup is roughly balanced without scum powers like RB or strongman
These two things aren't mutually exclusive at all?
FTC is a breaking strategy.
Scum don't want to trade 1 for 1 with a cop claim.
If the answer to FTC was to have scum cc the cop on D1 it wouldn't be a breaking strategy. The cop strategy we're using is significantly less powerful than FTC, but still puts the game in a state that is similar to nightless if scum have no counterplay, but also has additional town power. https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... ss_Vanilla"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Like, if you/GL is a 1v1 like you're arguing, then we're in a decent position here. But what if you're wrong? Did you look at GL's linked game where he went ham on Titus for quick hammering? Both of us know there are town *cowbells*cough* who would absolutely have the thought their read was strong enough to quickhammer a docclaim D1 as town, but GL pulled basically the same thing he's pulling here there and got flipped for it. And that lost town the game.In post 4638, Alisae wrote: I'll mull it over
I think it's definitely worth it to try and make sure this is actually a 1v1 before we stuff our eggs in this particular tube sock. Once we start swinging it, we can't really go back."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Overall scummy. I think your early read on him was colored by the wimkilling interactions and is potentially compromised by rage blinders and I don't really have an answer to pooky's why does scumfurtive protect xof point, but there are just so many weird questions around his play that I find it hard to think he's town. Of course, I thought the same shit about Lorne/Ircher and that got me this far so....
I'd be willing to flip furtive today."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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I don't mean wimkilling as in a direct desire from you to kill LLD's WIM, or I would be 100% on youscum.
I mean that you were integral in the interactions that did in fact kill LLD's WIM. I would also say that Ausuka and Cakez were integral in that situation, but I do think that LLD is more likely to scumread you for it regardless of your play since."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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There was the whole pooky is scum because he convinced LLD to tell him to kill town thing, which you admitted to being contingent on xofelf town but which didn't disappear when you started scumreading xof. There was the weird defense of xofelf's slot and misunderstanding of the core of the slip argument. There was the "people said vig before xof did" comment to discount the slip without then pointing out that you'd said it prior to night start when it was clarified. I dunno, that's what comes to mind off the top of my head, but there were probably other things as well. I've basically just been lumping it under the general label of "WTF is furtive doing over there".In post 4643, furtiveglance wrote: What are your weird questions around my play? I'll see if I can answer them"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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It works better if you use &ppp=209"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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But 209 is prime."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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&ppp=42069"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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This is exactly what I mean when I reference the weird shit furtive’s done umbrella.In post 4559, furtiveglance wrote: Can people stop repeating the lie that LLD killed meowth? My scumread on meowth predated pretty much anyone's."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Like… “I didn’t say that thing I said four pages ago” is such a bizarro take."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Who is saying you're OMGUS-ing?"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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You have to admit that saying "LLD didn't kill meowth. I was one of the first people on meowth." at least is implicitly saying that you were responsible for the meowth lim. Otherwise there's no connection between those points and you're just not giving any reasoning for why LLD championing the meowth lim wasn't a big part of why meowth is dead. Either that's just avoiding the point with a non sequitur or a reach for towncred, neither of which look particularly good.In post 4682, furtiveglance wrote: Yeah I said I was one of the first players to express a scumread on meowth, which is true. I didn't say I killed meowth."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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And $125 is still pretty low. We should be expecting $16.75 per player, which gives us an expectation of ~$150 with 9 alive. Paying back the $60 loan should be $90, should it not?In post 4666, GuiltyLion wrote: I realized I never shared treasury info - we had a decent windfall from taxes last night, we brought in $125. So even with paying back a $60 loan we could have $65 to play with and maybe take out another small loan. my thinking is we just fund the cop tonight and no one else, if sheep is town he's useful to flip and get out of the POE without wasting a lim if scum kills him, and if he lives he can investigate Bingle or whoever we're least sure of in the limpool"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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I looked at the role pm and it does totally imply the scum don't pay taxes. I'm just used to moderators using townie and player interchangeably in the review process, ig. That... actually solves my concern about why we were consistently coming in underfunded, although it makes it significantly less likely the scum power is budget based, which in turn increases the likelihood of a scum rb or Sman. I will say with the reduced amount of funding expected a full rb is probably a bit much to expect of scum here, but being able to frame ali seems likely.
I do think that means that we shouldn't at all go for a small loan here. A loan of $80 (funding sheep fully) means a payback of $120. Five players paying taxes (assuming we get the scumlim, so best case scenario) gives an average return of just over $90, so we're super likely to default with even a small loan. A full loan of $200 gives us two roles full funded or 3 roles decently funded, at the expense of us probably never getting out of debt this game. I would go 80/80/70 on COP/JOAT/TRACK (approximate odds of success 72/100/70 %).
If I get the funding, I'll be posting my target in the PT as close to the deadline as I can and would like to manipulate nightstart to help with that. Given that my ability and LLD's would be counterproductive to target the same person with, I'd be vaguely to a targeting pool plan, where we limit who we can target to prevent overlap. I'm not going to offer unilateral control of my target, however, and the pool will 100% be decided in the main thread, since the only scumteam without PT access would be Ali/Furtive/SK."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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If we do the above, LLD should be targeting in the scummier pool (and both me and sheep) and I should be targeting the townier pool.
I'd go with
Alisae
Bingle
sheepsaysmeep
Kdowns
SleepyKrew
GuiltyLion
Lady Lambdadelta
Unowen
as the pools if we lim furtive."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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No, I formatted that wrong copying from the spreadsheet with the math. The mayor is 100.
Should be
A full loan of $200 gives us two roles full funded or 3 roles decently funded, at the expense of us probably never getting out of debt this game. I would go 80/80/70 on COP/TRACK/JOAT (approximate odds of success 72/100/70 %)."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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The issue with full funding the cop compared to a different role is that it's more percentage points per dollar to fund JOAT. We could feasibly fund Cop/Track/JOAT as 100%/100%/20%, but there's like no point to funding the JOAT at all at that point, so we might as well just fund the two roles. We could do the same with partial funding the Track, but there we get 100%/62.5%/50% and again it's just too likely for a failed JK or Track. If we go that way, we definitely shouldn't fund me, because JK is an invisible role and I wouldn't have a way of knowing if my action actually failed or not so the result would be especially useless.In post 4701, UNOwen wrote:
Makes sense, although I surely earned it I doubt a humble Council Member could demand a better pay deal than the Mayor.In post 4699, Bingle wrote: No, I formatted that wrong copying from the spreadsheet with the math. The mayor is 100.
Should be
A full loan of $200 gives us two roles full funded or 3 roles decently funded, at the expense of us probably never getting out of debt this game. I would go 80/80/70 on COP/TRACK/JOAT (approximate odds of success 72/100/70 %).
I think it's probably correct to take the full loan, fund as many roles as possible and ruin our economy here. The cop ought to be fully funded regardless though, we should not leave that to chance."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Yeah, that’s right. My full budget for the calculations was slightly off but it doesn’t have a huge impact on the results.
We can full fund two, in which case the third is basically useless.
We can full fund one expensive (cop) and have the other two at meh funding, in which case the JK is a poor option and you should have the funding.
We can full fund the cheapest (tracker) and have the other two be at reasonably high likelihood.
I’m in favor of the third option. I don’t think we really need to fund the cop above 90%($99) in any case, but I also like to play the odds."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Except limming him. The same is true of a fake guilty or inno. But scum still have a high incentive to kill townhim because a 10% that he doesn’t get a result is like no chance at all.In post 4741, UNOwen wrote:
My problem with this option is that if sheep is scum he could say “whoops guess we just got the unlucky 10% outcome” and there’d be no way of figuring out if that’s true.In post 4730, Bingle wrote: I’m in favor of the third option. I don’t think we really need to fund the cop above 90%($99) in any case, but I also like to play the odds.
If tomorrow is XLO, sheep’s result isn’t as useful because we’re not really going to trust it anyway. If we lim scum here we still have a miselim to try to use to resolve potential 1v1s. If we get multiple guilties, we can maybe be in autowin tomorrow."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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I'd actually prefer a potential scum sheep claiming a 'failure' to a potential scum sheep claiming an innocent, because the former doesn't potentially remove a scum player from the lim pool tomorrow and shines a bigger spotlight on sheep. The big concern is town sheep claiming a failed action, which is annoyingly possible even if we don't underfund him. That's kind of the whole reason we're not powerlimming Ali here: the odds scum has some way of fucking with our plans is pretty high and soft guilties in XLO and the day before XLO can't be taken for granted."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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In post 4782, Alisae wrote: Do something worth listening to"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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:furret: :furret:In post 4796, Alisae wrote:the trick is to use the emoji that's most relevant to the user in the given context.
"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Any particular reason you're voting Sleepy over Uno here?
"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Honestly I don't pay attention when LLD scumreads me in general, but me being a scumread here isn't a surprise at all.In post 4852, Alisae wrote: I don't really get how bingle is tied into this btw.
I don't know if you explained it or not but I've really liked this posting this day phase
Objectively, I have lead town down some pretty shitty paths (I was tunneled on Cakez D1 and didn't catch on to meowzers until he was basically outed, I led the crusade to lim xof based on their reaction to the slip conversation, I fought hard to get the Ircher elimination.) I don't think any of my reads have been unreasonable, but solely looking at results I'm having a really shitty comeback game. I'm not going to stop arguing my reads, but suspicions being thrown my way are not at all unwarranted imo."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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They haven't shifted a lot, tbh.
I'm pretty damn sure that LLd is town.
I think Skrew is town based on the arguments here:
I think at most one of GL/Ali is scum, and that there are reasons to consider that both may be town.In post 4245, Bingle wrote:
The argument is that there are a lot of town power roles that straight up aren't going to be used on a claimed cop, like JK or roleblocker, and the slot is the least harmful to the scumteam if it goes down to a power role like watcher or rolestopper. The counterargument is "What about tracker?" But I don't think tracker is what scum were interested in playing around on night 2, given that I wasn't able to delay my funding claim to closer to deadline because of RL and 'really powerful role' being tracker would be hilarious given the tracker costs less than the JOAT to activate. Additionally, even in the case of Tracker, Skrewscum can just sit back and wait to see if LLD is going to announce a tracker guilty and at least try to duck the elim with "I was copping pooky." where no other person in the thread could possibly have been visiting anyone that night. Which, notably is not what Skrew did. And let's be clear: scumSkrew wouldn't need to do the cop check. Because scumSkrew would have this thing called access to the scum PT.In post 4244, furtiveglance wrote: What's the argument then? That you would do the kill and the cop check if you were scum? I think you wouldn't.
It's not a slam dunk towncase because there are reasons not-skrew would make the kill (being less aware of mechanical optimization choices than I expect being the big one) but it's 100% why LLD made the right choice of target with Skrew, even if potentially not the right choice of power.
Didn't I already say all of this?
I think that sheep is the scummiest individual player, but that trying to convince the town to lim sheep and fund JOAT/JOAT/TRACK is a fool's errand.
I think that of the remaining three players (you, Uno, and kdowns) there are reasons to suspect all of you, but I don't have any particularly strong thoughts as to who is right to lim today and I'm feeling kind of demoralized on picking my own pushes since they've been pretty shit. At the moment I'm just kind of hanging back and seeing what happens to try to make some sense of why all of the people I think are scum are flipping town."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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I typo'd in my spreadsheet and didn't realize it until Uno pointed it out. I had that post debt payment we'd have 230 written down, but didn't bother with a numbered correction post because philosophically nothing changed.
I don't think there's a consensus but this is still a good summation of the decent options:
In post 4730, Bingle wrote:Yeah, that’s right. My full budget for the calculations was slightly off but it doesn’t have a huge impact on the results.
We can full fund two, in which case the third is basically useless.
We can full fund one expensive (cop) and have the other two at meh funding, in which case the JK is a poor option and you should have the funding.
We can full fund the cheapest (tracker) and have the other two be at reasonably high likelihood.
I’m in favor of the third option. I don’t think we really need to fund the cop above 90%($99) in any case, but I also like to play the odds.
Honestly at this point my vote is that you WIFOM between the three options because waiting around on the full consensus is just going to lead to a bigger slog and more replacements."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Sheep coming in with solid takes like furtive's read reset justifies all the reads that were left behind prior to the reset and then taking the stance that someone ninja'd that insanity is the real mood this game, tbh.In post 4866, sheepsaysmeep wrote: but those are just like, some solid explanations for things, like I want to believe they've been existing the whole time and weren't just come up with to now justify his existing reads"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Yup, I'm a robot for taking about mech when the person we're waiting on literally asks me about mech. Fuck you too, buddy.In post 4865, furtiveglance wrote: I guarantee if I get eliminated Bingle will waffle about mech all through ELO. What an automaton."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10475
- Joined: July 21, 2019
- Location: Bad Player Jail
And you sound like an asshole. Don't worry, I'm not specifically talking about when you called me a chatbot, I'm talking about your entire game."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10475
- Joined: July 21, 2019
- Location: Bad Player Jail
It's cool, I probably took it more harshly than necessary. I don't really think you're an asshole, FWIW."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10475
- Joined: July 21, 2019
- Location: Bad Player Jail
Ngl, this thought crossed my mind. The whole defense of furtive because his read reset explained all his previous behavior is wolfy AF.In post 4895, Lady Lambdadelta wrote: Sheep coming out of the woodwork to try and defend Furtive only grants me more confidence tbh.
Is there any chance we can fund JoaT/JoaT/Track and just lim sheep here? Tracker isn’t far off of cop with only two scum left."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10475
- Joined: July 21, 2019
- Location: Bad Player Jail
I don’t think it’s impossible. Like, I’m maybe 90% on sheep and 70% on furtive. I feel like sheep is the stronger choice and it makes our night actions stronger by a lot to hit a second scum here."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10475
- Joined: July 21, 2019
- Location: Bad Player Jail
The short answer is that there's really no team I see making sense without you."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
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Bingle Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10475
- Joined: July 21, 2019
- Location: Bad Player Jail