Babylon 5 Mafia: Severed Dreams - Over

[Kinetic]

So much for people trying to fulfill their WC's and end games early... Kinetic, I think now would be a good time to reveal why you only had 18 races listed in one of your earlier posts. (or if you want to wait until the day officially starts, that's fine too)

Tar

, I search the corpse of KOC, the slain Minbari. Do I find any implicating items?

God, its so simple. Assuming equal distribution there is three extras. There is also three extras assuming each race has 3.

Those three extras are another faction.

God, do I have to spell it out even further?

[Kinetic]

The only way that works (an preserves one of my theories) is if either: Myself, Nat, or Darox is really EF or Unaligned

-OR-

There is really only 3 in B5 (meaning two people are false claiming) and there is truly 4 in both Narn and Centauri.

Those would be the only way to preserve my theory (that each race must kill 7 to win)

It doesn't really effect my theory that factions are distributed among races, but it changes how things might be. As well, what KoC's faction is also changes that. We'll have to see what that is before I can make any further determinations.

Bolded Or added by me because I forgot to add it in the original post.

[Kinetic]

Those three extras are another faction.

Obviously. What faction? Do survivors really count as a faction?

Obviously.

[Kinetic]

Those three extras are another faction.

Obviously. What faction? Do survivors really count as a faction?

Obviously.

I don't think so.

G4U, this is my theory, GTFO.

[Kinetic]

Those three extras are another faction.

Obviously. What faction? Do survivors really count as a faction?

Obviously.

But are they an alignment faction or a racial faction? As to that, we shall see.

Don't worry, I wouldn't reveal anything that wasn't already guaranteed to be revealed. - Tar

KoC was a survivor.

$%^#@$&^*IO(%$^#%$%*^(&%^$#@^&*(%$#^&*()%$#@^&*(%$#@Q!$%^#@!$^&*(^%$#@$^&*(%$#%&*()%$#@%&(*)(%$#%&*()(%$#%&*()(%$#@^&*()^%$#@$%^*&(%$#@$^&(*%$#%&*($#%^&*(%$#W^&*()^%$#^&*(^%$#%^&*(*&^%$#$%^&*()_(*&^%$#@#$%^&*()_(*&^%$#@$%^&*()_(*&^%$#

and just for good measure

*&^%$#$%^&*()(*&^%$#@#$%^&*()_+_)(*&^%$#@#$%^&*()_)(*&^%$#@#$%^&*()_)(*&^%$#@#$%^&*()_)(*&^%$#@#$%^&*()(*&^%$#@#$%^&*()(*&^%$#W@$%^&*()(*&^%$#$%^&*

Of course they're an alignment faction.

[Kinetic]

waitasecond...

could their be subracial factions that have survivor clauses!?!?

$^#%&$%#*&^%&$#^%$^%$#&^%&*^%(*&%^&%$#^%$

[Kinetic]

Maybe, I don't know, its like killing my baby.

I'm going to keep trying to see if it fits, if maybe I can find the truth, but I'm starting to feel more and more that maybe there is more mind screw in Tar's none Mind screw game, and that maybe the game just isn't inherently balanced.

Either that, or there is still something I don't know. Something that balances the game but that I haven't seen or I can extrapolate. If there is something like that, my whole theory is off because I have parts of my theory covering where it would be, and that makes the whole thing worse than useless.

[Kinetic]

Tar can we get an ETA on when twilight will end? (By my watch I've got 7 AM EST)

[Kinetic]

kk

[Kinetic]

Damn it. Need to kill some Shadows.

Oh, hey, I'm the Bus Driver today.

So, I'm going to go out on a large whim here and do some speculating.

Cult of Pacifism-Cult that made people survivors. Assuming such, I'd say we have at most one CoP member left. We kill them and it's simply a race to see who we kill first--shadows, or vorlons.

On another note,

Vote: Farside

. Obviously lied about win condition, Dybeck was the other anti-vorlon.

Not exactly, if he had claimed Narn Anti-Vorlon, then maybe, but he didn't. I did speculate there could be up to three.

Survivor is a RACIAL wincondition.

motherfucker.

Knight of Cydonia, Vorlon Operative

/Minbari Godfather

, lynched Day 1

Any ideas what to make of this? Because I'm looking intently at the other Minbari right now.

As the main proponant for the race claim, who also happens to be Minbari, do you honestly think I would do this if Minbari was a scum faction? It makes no sense. Read your own role pm.

I think its easier to understand it as Minbari/Vorlon Operative Godfather. Which is a Huge hit Day one.

I'm going to put this new information into my theory and see what it spits out.

[Kinetic]

Knight of Cydonia, Vorlon Operative

/Minbari Godfather

, lynched Day 1

Any ideas what to make of this? Because I'm looking intently at the other Minbari right now.

He's probably a Vorlon Operative Godfather who also happens to be a Minbari. I doubt all Minbari are scum.. that would be too easy.

Anyway... I remember Kinetic saying sometime in the last 24 hours that he did not believe that KOC was scum based on the latest data at the time. How does the fact that KOC

is

scum change that theory?

I have no idea yet. Plus, I thought it was still possible or I wouldn't have helped push the lynch, but I didn't think it was probable.

Either way, I've got to do a lot of calculations before I have any idea what exactly is going on.

This game seems to be a bigger beast then I imagined.

[Kinetic]

Also, it appears Darox lied about his race.. tough situation since he had no race (in the sense that most of us do). How does that affect the latest working theory?

I just realized that!!!!!

That is PERFECT! That means my original theory STILL HOLDS WATER! There are only 3 Minbari then.

Maybe, I don't know, the way survivor mechanics are, there is really no way to guess where the survivors are (good thing) and there can be up to two other survivors that I can think of.

We'll have to play this one by ear...

Either way it makes things very odd is what it makes it.

[Kinetic]

Let's see what Mana Ku and HP come back with and see where to go from there.

[Kinetic]

Ah fuck. I think I know moar. lol

[Kinetic]

Wait, so Minbari Godfather was a role?

Odd

[Kinetic]

Of course this presents a difficult dillema. We have 2 people who lied about their race which, no doubt, puts a major wrench in Kinetic's theory of numbers. If they re-claim, they paint a big target on their heads. If they don't, Kinetic's theory can never be perfect and thus will have to be, for all intents and purposes, discounted or at least taken with a grain of salt. Catch-22...

It's not that bad, not yet.

What it does do is keep it from being perfect. However don't throw the baby out with the bath water. At this point we'll have to pick and choose where it can and will apply. There are some instances where it is obvious that it will be difficult to apply, and some where it is straight forward.

Figuring out those instances may be a little difficult, but not egregiously so, and the benefits will be helpful.

[Kinetic]

I'm very curious to hear from everyone:

Who do you think is more scummy, Farside or Theinternet?

[Kinetic]

Also, analyzing B5:

Mana_ku (anti-shadow)
veerus
ForbiddanLight
Empking
Vismajor

Two of the four unclaimed players are Survivors. One is scum and the other is town. I like how survivors just went and claimed B5.

Exactly why I have decided not to vote for B5 right now. ^^

It is also why you won't either. Do we need to lynch you?

[Kinetic]

At this moment I see Farside as scummier. However, there has been the possibility that there are 6 anti-vorlons/shadows in total. If so, it would be nice if the last anti-shadow would show himself. Otherwise, this could result in a mislynch. And I think the last anti-shadow would like to lynch the Shadow Operatives or Neutral Survivor more than an anti-Vorlon.
Natirasha, as shown by Tar at the list of the dead players, it was shown that Dybeck was a Member :S. Does your role PM say that you are a Member?

If you think farside is scummier than The Internet, then I'll have to disagree with you. It seems there is a symmetry between Anti-scum groups. You and me are cops. Nat and farside are the jacks of all trades. And Dybeck and unknown are vanillas.

If he claimed before you, then you're far more suspicious than him.

The forced symmetry has been bugging me. I, sort of, like it, but it also doesn't exactly fit. Especially since both Anti-Vorlons claimed after their symmetric Anti-Shadow partner... Curious?

[Kinetic]

Also, analyzing B5:

Mana_ku (anti-shadow)
veerus
ForbiddanLight
Empking
Vismajor

Two of the four unclaimed players are Survivors. One is scum and the other is town. I like how survivors just went and claimed B5.

Exactly why I have decided not to vote for B5 right now. ^^

It is also why you won't either. Do we need to lynch you?

No, that's not right. What I mean is, I am curious about Mana Ku and Farsides claims since they came after the other claims and claim symmetry.

[Kinetic]

I love how the town are forced to keep the non-towns alive. If you lynch the anti-scums, then the game goes from a scumhunt to a racehunt.

We're not forced to keep you alive. Far from it. We just happen not to gain anything from killing you. If you continue to be a distraction we will gain something though, so maybe you should understand that.

[Kinetic]

Vote: The Internet

With the "1 non-town,1 mafia,1 town" components of each faction, it is revealed that The Internet is totally scum.

Care to explain?

He won't vote for someone claiming to be his partner.

[Kinetic]

Vote: The Internet

With the "1 non-town,1 mafia,1 town" components of each faction, it is revealed that The Internet is totally scum.

Care to explain?

He won't vote for someone claiming to be his partner.

Who? And who claimed to be his partner? He should vote for his partner?

This game confuses me, but I'm making cognitive inroads, if slowly.

HP claimed Anti-Vorlon. Farside claimed Anti-Vorlon. I'm pretty sure that one of farside or theinternet is scum, so hp (obviously) thinks the scum is theinternet because he'd rather lynch someone who hasn't claimed to be his partner.

[Kinetic]

Ah, I see.

Farside did get caught in a lie though and I can't think of a situation where that would be pro-town. I think she's more blatantly scum. Also, she's giving up for a flimsy reason. Just like KoC gave up when caught and hoped that we'd forget about him. I think farside is hoping that having herself replaced is going to trip us into voting someone outside of her player slot.

vote: farside22

My sentiments exactly.

Except I can't shake this nagging suspicion that Theinternet is more scum. This post from yesterday just screams "you caught me, I have no defense"

Well, I guess all I can say in my defense is don't outguess the mod, and this is a tar game. I'd also like to raise the theory that all of the anti-x are actually members of one of the mafias using safeclaims. Just a possibility, remember there are 3 of them and 3 of each mafia.

Granted, at that point in the game I virtually assured that Theinternet was scum and he was almost assuredly would have been lynched, but he was so... calm about it, it made me think even more he was scum. So much so that when my reason for thinking he was scum was removed I STILL think he could be scum more than someone like farside. How messed up is that?

[Kinetic]

That being said, so far every race but Unaligned has a claimed Anti- player. So if someone from Unaligned claims an anti-role, then unless Theinternet counter-claims farside, he is the scum...

[Kinetic]

I love how the town are forced to keep the non-towns alive. If you lynch the anti-scums, then the game goes from a scumhunt to a racehunt.

Since when is that remotely true?

Especially since there is an anti-scum in every race. If we eliminated them all we'd be left with just scum and town.

Unfortunately if we go that route the scum factions will just get free kills for 5-6 days in a row. Not something we can afford.

Right now, however, the anti-scum are more of a problem for the scum their against then the town. When that scum is eliminated, that non-town/anti-scum faction becomes even more useless to the town.

[Kinetic]

This is just a random guess, and I'm afraid I'm not as sure of it as any of my other ideas, but I'm thinking that maybe the Vorlons are from the Minbari, B5, and unaligned, just like their anti-shadow counterparts and that the Shadows are from Centauri, Narn, and EF just like the anti-vorlons.

I'm not trying to direct the cops, so I won't speculate about specific targets, but I do know I'll only believe hp if he comes up with a Vorlon and mana if he comes up with a shadow. As such, I'm thinking checking those specific races because they have a decently high chance of containing said scum.

[Kinetic]

...then unless Theinternet counter-claims farside, he is the scum...

So we have a 50-50 chance of hitting scum with either of these two? If so if becomes a question of which goes first.

Yes. I believe this.

It is contingent on my theory being right, but I'm sure enough that it is to push for this.

[Kinetic]

...then unless Theinternet counter-claims farside, he is the scum...

So we have a 50-50 chance of hitting scum with either of these two? If so if becomes a question of which goes first.

Yes. I believe this.

It is contingent on my theory being right, but I'm sure enough that it is to push for this.

I should, however, note that my theory could be wrong in this way: If there are only 2 of each anti-faction (a very real and distinct possibility) then farside is false-claiming and the ONLY reason for this is because he is scum. Theinternet would be an innocent in this scenario.

[Kinetic]

Hp is lying scum trying to cover her tracks with a cop claim. I am actually a Narn Gunsmith-like role, and I got a guilty read on [hp] having the ability to kill people(The flavor says I am a good judge of character, so [hp] might not nessecarily have a gun). It's also really hard to believe we have 2 cops and 2 roleblockers in the same setup.

Vote [hp] leaves

That is quite the claim and all of a sudden we have another 50/50, one which I personally didn't see coming.

That being said, hp's claim bugged me from the beginning but Mana's coming out actually made me feel better about hp's claim...

If HP is scum, that puts some heavy questions on Mana...

Especially since:

Every night I can read someone's mind, learning his/her race and faction.

And yet he got:

My attempt to read Malthusis' mind also gave me no result.

No race or faction. Bad Bad mojo.

Unvote

(Can't remember if I voted yet.

Vote:HP

[Kinetic]

Another fact dawned upon me as I got my results. I'm now thinking that each of the mafia's faction WC's must have mentioned their anti-factions in them for them to get the idea of claiming them, so this logically means the mafia's win conditions do not require them to kill each other. (And if their mentioned WC's had anti-factions in them, this indeed puts a lot of doubt on the people who claimed the anti-races in the first place). Another hit against Mana_Ku is that I simply don't think that Tar would put a cop in a game without a drawback or restriction.

I don't know about that. I think the anti-factions might have been named as possible safe claims, but I can't see the actual mafia factions NOT having a clause that the other mafia faction must be killed. That's a mighty big leap.

[Kinetic]

I think my post might be a little unclear, here is my attempt to clarify my meaning.

I can see in the Vorlon PM them mentioning the Anti-Shadow faction as 'allies' and vice-versa, but I can't understand the Vorlon PM mentioning the Anti-Vorlons as a faction objective. It doesn't make sense to have the Anti-Vorlons as an objective and not the other scum faction. Additionally, I feel that if such is so (Vorlons having anti-Vorlons as a faction objective) that we would have seen some sort of targeted attack against them. I'm baffled why we didn't with them claiming cops, and if you add them as objectives as well that would seal the deal.

That doesn't make logical sense in my opinion.

[Kinetic]

I see my calmness has rubbed people the wrong way. I'd like to point out that Kinetic's theory is very, very far from perfect, having been rebuilt so much it is barely recognizable and IIRC there are still issues and uncertainties. Remember, not every roles have equal shots at winning (jesters can win easy, SK's have hard times). Not sure who'll I place my vote on, waiting for HP's reply.

The original premise is actually still there and stronger then when I originally presented it. Additionally so far nothing has completely disputed this. The reason for the push on the vote between you and farside is if for some fantastic reason you're both not scum, then its a blow my theory cannot live through and it is fundamentally wrong.

However, if one of you is scum, the theory still fits very well.

[Kinetic]

Kinetic, I know you don't like me trying to attach the theme to everything, but this IS a

Babylon 5 themed game

. Roles were made with at least some connection to the series.

I read the whole thing, and I'm going to respond to it, but it doesn't need a long response.

My main issue is that you're trying to tie the theme to EVERYTHING. It is not going to work. Yes, when everything ends the theme might be evident, but trying to see that inside the game is going to be, frankly, very difficult to impossible.

Now I'm not saying that you won't be able to use the theme to find connections, I'm just asking you to remember to temper your zeal. Its not always going to fit the theme, and if you go blindly thinking it will you're going to be blind-sided.

But go ahead, do as you will, I'll just be as completely anti-theme as possible and you can try and find the theme implications of what I find. I'll do the same for you and try to keep you grounded so you don't go so far that you fall into a trap.

[Kinetic]

Now, the possibilities:
1. Malt is scum, probably Vorlon, and is trying to get rid of me as soon as possible.

I personally vote 1.

If you personally believe that you weren't blocked, and as a cop you've cleared Malt, then he claims to have evidence which completely implicates you, how can you then believe he is scum?

Honestly, this couldn't have been a more perfect storm against you...

[Kinetic]

Cleared as in? I have no idea of which faction Malt is from. He is safe to claim anything now, as pop is MIA and can't counter-claim anything.

Also, the cops in this game might have 50%(or less!) success chance. It makes sense as there are more than one in this game.

HP, I simply don't believe you.

However, you should look at it this way, if Malt is lying then we'll lynch him and we'll get a scum out of this either way.

[Kinetic]

Lots of words that need to be written in ENGLISH

Cretin, Hp claimed COP.

HP then CLEARED Malt with his "COP" ability.

Malt then claimed he also was a cop-like and that HP was a lying bastard and that HP is a killing role, not a cop.

HP then said he wasn't a killing role.

End of story.

[Kinetic]

HP then CLEARED Malt with his "COP" ability.

he sed he got no result

y do u fink hp or malt is lieing?

wat if hp was blockd or switched so malt investigated a killer insted?

nat claimed bus driver
maebe sum1 else was bus driver in day 1

evry1 is being lazy n followin the cop
i sed evry1 shud stop being dum n scumhunt insted!

y is hp suspishus beside malts claim?

We also said you should use English.

[Kinetic]

HP then CLEARED Malt with his "COP" ability.

he sed he got no result

y do u fink hp or malt is lieing?

wat if hp was blockd or switched so malt investigated a killer insted?

nat claimed bus driver
maebe sum1 else was bus driver in day 1

evry1 is being lazy n followin the cop
i sed evry1 shud stop being dum n scumhunt insted!

y is hp suspishus beside malts claim?

We also said you should use English.

y

ur ignoring how laim ur case on hp is

And you're ignoring the mod. So I'm ignoring you.

[Kinetic]

It simply said that [hp] was dangerous.

Ummm... What? No you didn't. You said much more than that.

Hp is lying scum trying to cover her tracks with a cop claim. I am actually a Narn Gunsmith-like role, and I got a guilty read on [hp] having the ability to kill people(The flavor says I am a good judge of character, so [hp] might not nessecarily have a gun). It's also really hard to believe we have 2 cops and 2 roleblockers in the same setup.

Vote [hp] leaves

Now with the confirmed revelation that a gunsmith does find a 'guilty' on cops you're backing off.

But you never claimed to have EXACTLY a gunsmith role. You claimed that HP had an ability to KILL people, and even that it might not USE a gun.

Unvote

You're going to have to explain this to me Mal.

[Kinetic]

@Kinetic

Now with the confirmed revelation that a gunsmith does find a 'guilty' on cops you're backing off.

But you never claimed to have EXACTLY a gunsmith role. You claimed that HP had an ability to KILL people, and even that it might not USE a gun.

Who confirmed that? I don't, which is why I said my results in the first place and started all this mess. Mana_Ku was simply asking the flavor text for my result. That's the form that I got it in. That explain it for you?

I'm referring more to the fact that you claimed that HP has, in fact, a role which kills people. Are you claiming now that you do not know that as fact?

[Kinetic]

Also Kinetic came up with the idea that I cleared Malt.

It's not suspicious or anything. He is 100% AOL by my evidence. Just that his logic is null.

Kinetic is cleared. Not Malt. Malt is still suspicious.

I find this statement ironic since you investigated Malt and yet I'm the cleared one.

[Kinetic]

Kinetic, remember your 1 town, 1 scum, 1 non-town theory?

You're Minbari. Nat and KoC are also Minbari. One was scum and the other is non-town. That leaves you as AoL.

Of course I remember my own theories. But you should remember all the other things I said. You know, like that it is UNTESTED, UNPROVEN, and that I have been wrong before. I feel strongly in my theory, but there is no way that I'm going to use it as my only barometer for detecting scum until it is completely proven. You shouldn't either.

Not to mention, you're not following your own logic.

Narn (1 town, 1 scum, 1 non-town)

malt (gunsmith-like town role)
dybeck (confirmed non-town)
pop (left to be scum)

If we all think that Malt is cleared, then pop is definitely scum. Why not lynch a scum instead of someone non-town?

Wait, he is MIA. And can't counter-claim.

I see this as you flailing. Trying to grab onto anything to keep from drowning. You're tightly holding onto the theory, but then in less than a page are disregarding it.

There is just something wrong with your logic and I can't accept anything you're saying.

Anyone who blindly follows this theory before such a time as it is proven is scummy. Using it as additional evidence is all well and good, but it should never be the only reason.

Wikipedia also says I'm a Psi-"Corp". It seems like Tar made another spelling mistake =/

No, Tar is right in this instance. The Psi-Corps is the organization, and P-12s or higher can become Psi-Cops, which is a position within the Psi-Corps.

Anyway, I'm unsure exactly what to do... There is some question exactly how true malt's readings are.

We still have a decent amount of time, and I think that I would like TheInternet to make a claim. He's been floating around too much and was very casual when placed under pressure earlier.

Vote:TheInternet

[Kinetic]

Anyone who blindly follows this theory before such a time as it is proven is scummy. Using it as additional evidence is all well and good, but it should never be the only reason.

Well, it works for additional evidence since I do feel TI's reaction was weird earlier, but to be fair, how can a theory really be tested without a lynch?

Like I said, I'm voting TheInternet based on his reaction to previous pressure. The best way to test the theory is a lynch, and he seems to be by far the scummiest candidate.

[Kinetic]

If hp shows up as a non-killer, I'll slap you, malth.
(And lynch you, though)

How will we know? None of the current reveals have told us EXACTLY what someone is... If HP comes up as scum or as XXXX Killer, that would be one thing, but what if he comes up as Psy-Cop? Will that mean that he was telling the truth or that he was lying?

[Kinetic]

If hp comes up as a Psi-cop, then:
a) he is "dangerous" in any weird way (possibly a "kill miller")
b) malth misinterpreted his role PM/his results
c) any weird role screwed the results
d) malth is lying
Using Occam's razor, it would reduce it to a) and d), but that razor is not enough reliable, and I might be wrong.
If not:
a) hp lied.

A) Malt is claiming to be a Binary Cop. His binary results are either 'This person can kill' or 'This person cannot kill'.

The miller idea is interesting, but using your 'Occum's Razor' idea, the Miller is not the most likely occurrence. In THIS case, Occum's Razor says either Malt or HP is lying.

B) According to Malt, and we have asked for clarification for just this very reason, his only results are either someone can kill, or someone cannot kill.

C) Very unlikely. In my opinion the only reason the Bus role is coming up is because Nat pulled it. Nat couldn't have done it last night. The other possibility is dybeck, and I know this is a meta response, but if he did I doubt Tar would let him back in the game with that information. (Unless the role dybeck is coming into is scum of the same group that he targeted the night before. And even if so, I doubt tar would give that scum group that advantage either)

The other possibility is if somehow the scum have a Bus Driver type role. That is possible, and sort of goes in line with the possibility that Nat's role copies a random scum power which I thought might be fun. But if they DID have a Bus Driver role, I cannot imagine them doing what they did and not using the opportunity to kill hp since he wouldn't be able to be protected.

Additionally, the scum having a Bus Driver role would pretty much make their kills unstoppable by a doctor role.

D)/A2) Here is your Occum's Razor.

[Kinetic]

For all the people who don't understand Pacman's idea,

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... %27s_Razor

Seeing as that page doesn't link to anything, I'll explain the concept instead:

Basically it is the concept that the Simplest answer is the best answer.

This means that the concept that is most likely thing to have happen is the one that has the least exceptions.

In this case, the razor case is that someone lied, either Malt or HP, because they have equal reason to lie if one of them is lying.

Reasons for this that would not satisfy Occam's Razor are ones that have bizarre or unlikely occurrences.

In this case, those arguments would be the Bus Driver argument and others like it.

This does NOT mean those arguments are technically wrong. This could be considered an appeal to probability in a sense since you're believing the most likely event to occur is the one that occurred by believing Occam's Razor.

[Kinetic]

I don't see why hp isn't dead yet. He has what amounts to a claimed guilty on him.

Because we have two weeks until deadline and I know I personally would not mind taking a few days to investigate the case just a little bit more. Its not going to kill us and he's still going to be here.

There is no reason to rush to a decision.

Ideally Malt should have waited a day so we could know a little more about his role, but this is the hand we are being dealt.

[Kinetic]

Just so everyone knows, HP is at Lynch -1.

I was just thinking about re-voting him frankly because there is now more we can learn from his lynch (which was my original intent when I unvoted him) but I wasn't sure if I wanted to hammer him just yet.

Either way, people should know to be careful if they vote him.

[Kinetic]

If dybeck says Bus driver I'm voting HP.

[Kinetic]

If dybeck says Bus driver I'm voting HP.

That was my point.....

huh? anyone care to explain this for the dense ones in the crowd?

Were you told that 'hp leaves was scum' specifically? Or are you inferring this because he was your target and you got a guilty result?

Dybeck is implying that Malt's result doesn't specifically state that the result he has is from HP. Thus the only reason I personally can see for dybeck to make this distinction is to present the possibility that the result is true but that HP was switched with someone and is thus not the target of Malt.

Its a great way to clear both of them, albeit, complete hogwash.

IF said Bus Driver was not scum, they would have already come out and said so. While a town player using Bus Driver on a cop is prob not a bad idea, they should have said so by now. The ONLY possibility of this would have been dybeck himself. As I said before, since Dybeck was allowed back into the game this means he couldn't have possibly have any information that he gained from his previous role that will effect him in this role. IF he is stating that he does, he is either lying or Tar made a huge error.

IF said Bus Driver was scum, then HP would be dead. The Bus Driver ability is effectively an anti-Doctor/Protector ability when in the hands of scum. Simply choose who you want to kill, have the Bus Driver switch that person with someone else, and kill the someone else. Any protects that would be going to your real target will instead go to the Bus Driver's target while the Real target takes the kill shot to the head. Since HP is not dead, its pretty obvious this wasn't a scum ability.

[Kinetic]

Although... I wonder if Malt is paranoid...

[Kinetic]

Although... I wonder if Malt is paranoid...

Seriously, Occam's Razor.

Appeal to Probability. Anyway, it was just a thought.

[Kinetic]

Although... I wonder if Malt is paranoid...

Doubt it?

*shrug* just a thought

[Kinetic]

I just thought of something.

Unvote;Vote:HP

[Kinetic]

I replaced PopTaj and I am in fact the last Narn. The 1/1/1 theory is wrong, as I am not scum. Also, please pay close attention to the Minbari win condition, and look who voted for me first.

Can you explain? This game gives me migraines...

First, Mac claims not to be scum. He's the only one who knows this, and if he is indeed not scum, it does break the 1/1/1 rule.

Second, he tries and taints Nat's case because killing the Narn will help him complete Nat's Minbari WC. This is true, and killing Narn I believe will also help Centauri's WC as well.

However I'm personally unsure about both Mac and Nat. I'm unsure of Nat's intentions and I'm unsure if Mac is scum. When I first read Nat's vote, I also thought he might be making a racial claim under the cover of the theory.

However, I also got the feeling that Mac might really be scum and he's using the cover that Nat is against him to make it a racial issue.

So, I'm completely unsure how to play this one.

As it stands, I am also Minbari and I am also the person who created the theory. I have a vested interest in Mac getting lynched for multiple reasons. One being a WC, the other being validation.

For this reason I will not vote Mac, so that there is no chance that my bias can get in the way. I do think that if I was not Minbari I would be for a Mac lynch, but I do not feel that anyone can truly believe that I would have an unbiased opinion.

So, I am for a Mac lynch, but I refuse to vote for him. This is a decision that the rest of the players need to make without me. If there is sufficient cause to push for Mac, I may add a vote in later (most likely the only way this would be is a tie-breaking vote, effectively the hammer), but I will not vote myself unless that is the only way to move this day forward.

[Kinetic]

I would also like to note that there are two EF alive. Killing Mac will not, in and of itself, end the game for Minbari. Far from it it pretty much makes EF untouchable for anyone who is Minbari.

[Kinetic]

Unfortunately I know I way to fix this...

We lynch one of the EF.

Hear me out:

If we believe that Nat intended to go for a Minbari win, then one of the EF are going to die tonight. He has a Vig ability, per his own admission.

I say we force Nat to Vig the claimed scum and kill an EF.

If we Mislynch the wrong EF, the best way for AoL to win is to, quite literally, joint AoL/Minbari win. It would require us to find the other scum and kill them before we lynch the final EF to win, but it is possible.

Either way, Mac is now going to die. We are either going to lynch him or Nat is going to vig him.

Would we rather choose we lynch an EF and try and find the scum as a town or let Nat decide who the thinks is the scum? Or worse, Nat might choose to find the town to set us up to the point where we HAVE to either let Minbari win or aim for the joint win, which will be very very hard.

[Kinetic]

Vote: Pacman

[Kinetic]

Would we rather choose we lynch an EF and try and find the scum as a town or let Nat decide who the thinks is the scum? Or worse, Nat might choose to find the town to set us up to the point where we HAVE to either let Minbari win or aim for the joint win, which will be very very hard.

I...like this logic. Though, Nat will just turn around and shoot the other EF, forcing us to leave Macavity alive til we've gotten all the other scum. Again, I'm fine with a joint Minbari/AoL win, but it will be difficult if we are relying on Nat the vig. And remember, even if we lynch Nat it's useless since you can win after death even if your faction is wiped out (right?)

Yes.

And if we hit the EF town, no matter if Nat kills EF or Narn we're the same. We're actually BETTER OFF if he kills EF in this situation.

We KNOW that Mac is scum, so there is no possibility of mis-lynch. If we miss the EF scum and Nat vigs him, its the same if Nat vigs Mac. Its actually BETTER for town if Nat vigs EF in this situation.

The worst case scenario is if we lynch the EF scum and Nat betrays and kills the EF town. It will force AoL to push for a joint win. Again, this is not "bad" but it is not ideal. Additionally the last EF/Narn is virtually unkillable by scum because it will end the game in their loss. They won't kill their own scum, and the other scum will lose the game to Minbari if they kill it. This is EVEN MORE the case if Mac is shadow since Vorlon already lost one and they are no where near getting a majority. Especially if the EF scum is also Shadow.

[Kinetic]

So... what's the difference between lynching the claimed scum MacwhateverLock, and letting Natirasha picking one of the EF (the correct one, please!), and lynching pacman while letting MacLock get vigged?

Weren't some players with investigative roles getting "no results?" That means that perhaps a vig kill is chancy. No?

Aye, true, roleblockers could exist... but I wonder now if its more that the cops are binary cops. Either they get scum result or nothing. Even that they might only get a result on there target scum (Anti Shadow only getting Shadow results, etc).

So I'm not sure either way. I suppose this is a better case for lynching Mac and letting Nat try and Vig an EF.

[Kinetic]

Oddly enough, the EF scum might have a better chance of winning by outing themselves and letting themselves be lynched or killed and letting their other scum partners stay alive and the EF town be alive.

Odd, I know.

[Kinetic]

I am not going to comment on B5.

[Kinetic]

Yup. I'm going down no matter what, but this may actually keep me alive another day or two.

Not if I have anything to say about it. Alternatively, you could be helpful by pointing out another target through the 1-1-1 method ^-^. Because I am INCREDIBLY lazy.

Sorry, I missed this. EF - it's got to be one of pacman and DGB. If I had to guess, it would be pacman. Centauri - Barring lies via mod, it's got to be one of farside (dybeck 2?) or Internet. I'd guess Internet. B5 and Unaligned both have 3 claimers left. I have guesses, but I won't say right now.

Can you just tell us your partner? Or which race he's a part of?

I'm going to answer this for MacavityLock: No, he can't, not unless he wants to suffer the wrath of Mod. Not even as a joke. Not even as town. See Rule 3 for details. - Tar

[Kinetic]

Can you just tell us your partner? Or which race he's a part of?

Ha! I've got to leave myself some minuscule chance to win.

I know, it was a joke. As is your speculating on who can be scum .

It's also the sort of joke that the Mod is very, very touchy about. Consider this an unofficial warning. - Tar

[Kinetic]

I think I may have changed my mind on the EF scum.

Also, I don't mind a Minbari win, they've earned it.

unvote, vote: MacavityLock

BS. People play to win. Betting you're the other scum.

Vote: DGB

You don't know DGB. She claimed scum because she was bored of the game once and used her investigation role as SCUM to help find the other scum party.

I personally play to win, but ascribing your person feelings of a game to someone else to try and explain their actions will undoubtedly fail.

[Kinetic]

Vote:Mactivitylock

Either your scum and desrve to be lyched, or your a liar and desrve to be lynched. Also, mod I believe there are some people needing prods or replacements (IIRC RandomGem, MafiaSSK).

Aww you're being so mean to your scum partner. What did he do to deserve that?

[Kinetic]

In other news, pacman is scum.

Also, I don't mind a Minbari win, they've earned it.

unvote, vote: MacavityLock

I'll do something scummy, but serious.

Vote: DrippingGoofball
Extreme FoS: Kinetic, MacavityLock

Unfortunately, your theory is just BS. I'm a vanilla AoL/EF, and if you wish, you can lynch me and proof that.
I'm talking seriously; DGB is scum trying to use others' theories on his favour. Also, keep an eye on Kinetic; his "agreement without words" voting me is really scummy for me.

All I hear is blah blah blah OMGUS. Its a choice between you and DGB, your claim of vanilla AoL/EF is predictable and means 0. I feel more likely that you are scum. There, I said it.

Macavity... he claimed Scum, and that makes me think that he might possibly have had been a frustrated cult, or possibly a bomb, or scum. Keep a serious eye on him too.

Or... he could be frustrated scum. You're one to miss the obvious, aren't you.

But my favorite is this next line:

I AM NOT MOVING MY VOTE DURING THIS DAY AT LEAST,

[...]

Ok....

[...]

OR POSSIBLY TO OTHER OF THE FoSED

Wait... you just said you wouldn't move your vote and then contradicted yourself in the VERY NEXT PHRASE. Its the same damn sentence for crying out loud. Can't you at least be consistent in the single statement, must less a single post...

, AND I'LL KEEP AS ACTIVE AS I CAN IN SUCH WAY I'M NOT REPLACED;

This sounds to me like "I'll post every three days, and not a single bit more."

IF YOU WANT YOU CAN LYNCH ME AND YOU'LL SEE THAT THEIR THEORY THAT EF IS SCUM IS NOTHING MORE THAN BS.

Umm good job strawman. The theory that one of you or DGB is scum, not that EF as a whole is scum. Congrats on failing comprehension.

Ok, I'm done.

[Kinetic]

I just realized that you stated something funny in your post.
I meant that, if I'm voting someone today, it's one of you three. Yeah, Kinetic, your efforts on trying to win the game are good, but the way you believed DGB's theory of "EF+Narn=SCUM" made my eyes explode. You three are (to me) some of the scummiest players on the game. There are some players, I haven't paid attention to, but I'm completely sure that the theory of EF is scum is nothing more than BS, and my role PM itself contradicts that.

DGB's theory? Are you retarded? I'm following my own theory WHICH NO ONE HAS YET TO BE DISPROVE that I created day 1.

My original theory, which I based everything else off of was this: Since each player belongs to multiple factions, there must be an equal balance among all factions, spread evenly among other factions. Piling any two factions together with common goals A) Ruins Tar's fun, and B) would unbalance the game.

So far, this theory has no one has yet to be disprove. It is based on THIS that I'm voting you. We already KNOW that so far, for Narn and Minbari that this has held TRUE.

We also know that Nat has effectively the AoL by the balls with his ability. Do we lynch Nat and basically let the scum win, or do we play his game, allow him to help us and in turn help him win the game. You're an idiot if you don't see the repercussions here for the AoL WC if we don't help Nat. He can hurt us A LOT worse than anyone else, but lynching him is almost just as bad.

The best play is to force Nat to Vig scum and to fin the scum in EF ourselves. If we do that we have a damn good chance of pulling off a double win, which in my opinion, is our best option out of bad options.

Now I'm starting to think, however, that Mac might be the true best play for the town...

Reason being: If we hit scum of Pacman/DGB, Nat won't kill Mat, he'll attempt to kill the other so we're forced to ally with him to win.

If we kill Mat then Nat is actually aiming at the AoL EF, not the scum EF player. He loses all of his chips if he mistakenly kills the Scum in the EF. Oddly enough...

Unvote

I think Pacman is the scum.

Vote:Mac

[Kinetic]

Man if you were Anti-Vorlon this might be funny. Be funny if Mac and the EF scum are both Vorlons and you just lost the game for yourself if there are no other survivors, lol.

[Kinetic]

@armlx: you have failed to explain how leaving a claimed scum alive one more night benefits YOU.

It forces Nat to use his vig kill on someone that we would lynch anyways, rather then a "random" EF person, thus keeping him further away from his racial WC?

Do you think that Mac being alive tonight will give the scum group he is from an advantage? I don't, if he was a scum RB he would have just claimed RB. I guess he could be the Shadow GF parallel to KoC, which would be the one scenario where its a little awkward assuming he would be NK immune then, but even then the goal of having more control over when Minbari wins is still accomplished.

Unless Nat just vig kills EF anyways..... which he probably will as Minbari WC is easier then AoL at this point given that....

Sigh, lame.

Yea, I realized that as well. If we lynch EF NAt's play is to Vig the last EF since town HAS to kill Mac eventually. But if we lynch Mac we have (at worst) a 50% chance of Nat actually vigging the scum If he does we jsut need to protect the last EF townie with everything we got. Even the scum won't want to kill him...

BTW: to the scum, I'm pretty sure the remaining scum are

The Internet,
Pacman,
Armlx and
ForbiddenLight.

I'm pretty sure that Nat will kill Pacman tonight, but if you guys wouldn't mind cross killing, I would really like to know how right I am.

Thank you.

Happy hunting tonight ^^. Can we hammah Mac now please.

[Kinetic]

So, why am I scum again? You kinda fail to explain this, and it makes you look suspicious.

Because of my role.

[Kinetic]

Well, you misinterpreted your results or are flat wrong. I'm not scum, as a matter of fact. As for the rest, we can deal with that tomorrow, I think.

Results? I'm not an investigating role. Who told you that? If I was this game would be over already.

[Kinetic]

Well either you or Empking are the scum in B5, and I'm betting on you. Something rubs me the wrong way...

[Kinetic]

FL: If you are not scum and indeed have a killing role, please kill VisMajor as he is the only person who can be scum in B5 then.

I'm breaking my WiFOM and telling you this: Empking is AoL. Confirmed beyond a shadow of a doubt. That may get me killed though so you damn well better kill VisMajor because if the theory holds he's scum. (And I'd like at least 1! scum from B5).

So let me reiterate: If FL is not scum Vis Major is.

[Kinetic]

Either Forbidden Light or VisMajor are lying.

[Kinetic]

Another thing. The AOL member from B5 is dead. There were 2 AOL's in B5??? Is that what you're saying, Kinetic?

Empking is AoL. Confirmed beyond a shadow of a doubt. That may get me killed though so you damn well better kill VisMajor because if the theory holds he's scum.

There was always 2 AoLs in B5, even if my theory held.

[Kinetic]

Another thing. The AOL member from B5 is dead. There were 2 AOL's in B5??? Is that what you're saying, Kinetic?

Empking is AoL. Confirmed beyond a shadow of a doubt. That may get me killed though so you damn well better kill VisMajor because if the theory holds he's scum.

There was always 2 AoLs in B5, even if my theory held.

But your theory didn't factor in the no factioness of the neutrals.

So, either the WC's are unbalanced, your theory is wrong, or Emp is lying about being B5.

The WCs are not imbalanced, My theory has not been proven wrong and this doesn't prove it wrong, and Emp isn't lying about being B5.

I just know a few things you don't. And no, I'm not telling any more than I have.

I told FL that since if he is not lying and has a killing ability that killing VM will be the smartest move. I'm personally confirming that Empking is both AoL and B5 faction.

[Kinetic]

Hey...

There are

FIVE

players in Babylon

FIVE

.

Coincidence???

lol

Who knows.

[Kinetic]

You know... Minbari isn't the only race with Narn as their target...

Isn't the other Centauri?

[Kinetic]

Yea, you did vote theinternet though...

*twilight zone*

[Kinetic]

Ha!

I was right on: DGB and TheInternet being scum!
I was right on: Armlx and Pop being scum!

I had all of the scum pegged...

I was wrong on another scum being in B5...

I was wrong on MafiaSSK, totally thought he was a survivor...

If you look, I was playing a double gambit by calling pacman the scum. I wanted Nat to believe I was WiFoming him and kill DGB who I actually thought was scum, but since if he killed the real EF member it would be difficult to pull off an AoL win.

I really was trying for AoL win, even at the end. I REALLY felt like this game was heavily favored against AoL, so I wanted them to win more than anything.

Good game to all, not a win the way I'd like it, but a win is a win, and in such a complicated game, *shrug*. Good play Nat.

[Kinetic]

Really good set up. Not sure if the AOL/Shadow/Vorlon WC's were ever going to happen though.

If I'd gone with my gut and thought the two other B5s were indeed survivors then they might have...

I also think the other AoL (besides Emp) in B5 should have been scum and only one scum in unaligned.

Other than that, yea, really good setup.

[Kinetic]

Cult was very strong. It wasn't OP in my opinion, it was just about right.

I do think, though, that in addition to the cult there should have only been one other survivor though.

[Kinetic]

I do think, though, that in addition to the cult there should have only been one other survivor though.

Would've made the anti conditions too easy though.

Depends, I thought the cult created survivors, so in that case it wouldn't have. Even if they got lucky and killed Darox day 1 there still would have been 3 survivors total.

[Kinetic]

Well still, I'm glad I didn't have to go past D3 after claiming a killing role. I dunno what Kinetic was after saying he knew I was scum, but that scared me into screwing up, lol.

Ha, hell yea it did, rofl.

I'm like... whaaat?

I was still working on the theory that there was at least 1! scum in B5. And I tossed a coin between you and Vis in that post. Being a mason with Emp I knew he wasn't scum.

And yea, the only power role I had was I was a mason with Empking and the only way to kill Empking was to kill me. So I faked NK immunity and if pushed I would have said Emp had lynch immunity but not NK immunity and we were linked.

lol

[Kinetic]

Town:
- Town won because Kinetic had enough information to figure out most of the setup and none of the killing roles ever took a potshot at him (FL's choice makes sense given how she played her role, but Mafia should have noticed that he pulled the same bluff in freaktown and not made the same mistake, and VisMaior of all people could have figured out he was bluffing).

ROFL. Totally right. The entire time I was like: I sure hope no one actually READS this game I keep mentioning and realizes I made THE EXACT SAME GAMBIT there.

[Kinetic]

And one thing I did miscalculate on:

I figured that Tar wouldn't have added extra killing roles like Vig or SKs because they would have severely empowered the races that got them. My inability to read that survivors were their own race made it so I couldn't figure out that part of the set-up and truly messed up (maybe costing AoL the win?).

Additionally, I figured there was no doc saving role so I had to play the 'you can't touch me' gambit. Originally I wanted Emp to make all of the announcements I made and basically have me pulling his strings since he was unkillable, but he was too flaky and I got impatient.

Umm, I also figured the symmetry plan would work because too many scum in one race would have made it so the scum would be able to try and achieve race wins instead of faction.

Think thats all I got.