Datisi's Café [game over!]

[mastina]

(stuff)

yes, i do not engage with everyone about every point that i think feels off
sometimes i think it would be useful to do so, like if i could try to better understand a thought process or clarify a point or if i think asking about it could help me sort them in some way or if i want to pressure or if i want other people to look at the things im pointing out
sometimes none of those really apply

id rather just let you do your thing for now and watch and see if i still feel that way after more things have happened

For the record,
1: Reading fire's iso looks heavily buddy with Titus + Ircher. AFTER Ircher was pretty much dead in the water, he voted Titus--that was a vote that the scum knew had no chance of going through. His vote on Titus couldn't possibly have put Titus in danger. So it looks like positioning for the future, something to look good and plant the idea that fire isn't scum with Titus.

But anyway, I digress. While I think fire's iso is HEAVILY scum (especially if furtive is also scum),

2: I was looking to see if fire had 'crumbed at all. This is the first possible 'crumb I can see...and it's not suggesting targeting me; it's not hinting at a weaker role either.

Spoiler: First fire post D2 + follow-through, can go for quite a while

I was expecting JJH/Lukewarm/Mastina to die last night

were you expecting 3 kills or do you mean you expected [some amount of people] in that group to die?

it might have only been 2 kills. BBT just seems really weird as a kill to me based on their lack of content, unless they're known to be a good player who just hadnt turned it on yet? i don't know them enough to know if that makes sense as a fearkill
i really would hope that nobody would spend enough productivity points to n1 hero shot vig but i also wouldn't be that surprised
nero and peta kills both make sense as NKs tho

I like Ydrasse as town based on how things have progressed so far.

can you explain what made you think this? quoting the vc makes it seem like it was based on that but i don't really get it

I would game that there’s one Scum in {Vivax, PenguinPower}. And mastina not dying is both expected and not a good sign.

why do you think penguin

are you saying you don't think that it would be weird for mafia to nightkill BBT?

it might have only been 2 kills. BBT just seems really weird as a kill to me based on their lack of content, unless they're known to be a good player who just hadnt turned it on yet? i don't know them enough to know if that makes sense as a fearkill
i really would hope that nobody would spend enough productivity points to n1 hero shot vig but i also wouldn't be that surprised
nero and peta kills both make sense as NKs tho

Putting this outside the spoiler as well because this looks like TMI. Vivax hadn't claimed the vig shot at that point, so how did he know? Why did Nero make sense? peta, sure, but why Nero?

ANYWAY I digress again. STILL no hint at having investigated me. In fact there's something rather peculiar.

I would game that there’s one Scum in {Vivax, PenguinPower}.

And mastina not dying is both expected and not a good sign

.

why do you think penguin

Why did he reply to this and not mention the mastina part of the post at all when he allegedly investigated me and had a result?

we had such a lovely d1 can we please PLEASE not do the thing where we quote our own posts for emphasis

This was his next mention of me. It's not obvious in iso, but

I was the player fire was referring to here

. I was the one quoting my post for emphasis, so this is a post in reference to me. Nothing.

(Side-note, but the early vote on Titus, but then the pivot away also reeks of scum. Just sayin'. BUT I DIGRESS AGAIN.)

The

very first post

indicating ANY hint of MAYBE having investigated me is this:

also i guess i should say that i don't really trust mastina at all, not super interested in sheeping reads there
roden seems alright so far. the claim has a couple weird things about it but i think that it could come from town.

i don't really want to get into that discussion too much yet due to reasons

, but the play outside of that seems maybe a little scummy
ig the main reason i don't want to vote there is bc of mastina, but maybe that's dumb, idk

What were the hinted-at reasons here? Those hint at a result on

Roden

, not a result on me.
How would a result on me having visited nobody indicated that Roden's claim was weird but coming from town?
There's no correlation here at all.
This doesn't read like someone with a result on me; this reads as someone with a result on Roden.

Anyway, I think that's all the productivity I can get FOR NOW on the fire dive, but just sayin':

furtive never said he didn't believe you were busier? he said that he scumread the posting that you did have

I do see the furtive-fire scumteam.

[mastina]

I would imagine Ausuka is a vig shot
I think she was viably in the miselimination pool and unless scum saw something they thought was a crumb or something I doubt they take that shot

i mean i thought she was scum for what i thought was heavily softing a PR and then later walking it back so it's def possible scum saw the same thing i did
i did figure out eventually that i was misinterpreting but it did really look that way at first to me

Nevermind, I gotta ask:

Why did fire not use his role on Ausuka to verify this?

Maybe because the scum used a second kill as an investigative tool???

Also,

WHY DOES FIRE THINK THE AUSUKA KILL IS A SCUM KILL HERE?

Most of the town it seems at that point was like "Vivax vigged there" from what I saw.

[mastina]

Alternatively, they’re executing VTs so that they can have the average be lower than 75% and get an additional NK. Actually, that’s probably why.

how would they know Lukewarm was a VT

Probably an educated guess?

To be fair, the VT/PR divide in this game is quite obvious. There's players I won't believe if they claim PRs; there's players I won't believe if they claim VTs; the scum would have to be utter morons to not be able to tell which are which.

[mastina]

wat going on between fire and mastina

(Reading fire's posts in the area I'm more sure than ever that fire is scum there btw.)

Btw reading is less productive than I thought but I feel vaguely that Something_Smart's approach is still weakly town here.
jjh I retain the town read of his perspective.
(Also 2525 continues to not be a town perspective. 2536 also doesn't track given fire laid out the exact thought process for why he SHOULD have checked

Ausuka

.)

Around 2547 makes me more comfortable with S_S still being town here.

So, update of where I'm at:

TOWN NO MATTER WHAT:

{Ydrasse, Uncrowned} I don't think Ydrasse needs explaining here, and I'm willing to bet Uncrowned is town here, too.

TOWN PRETTY MUCH REGARDLESS:

{jjh927, PenguinPower, Something_Smart, Andresvmb} PenguinPower's response was town and PP has been town the entire game. jjh isn't quite as surefire, but he's still pretty much out of contention imo. Something_Smart joins the club. Andresvmb is pretty much there, too.

WHAT'S LEFT:

Malakittens

(decent chance of being scum)

furtiveglance

(current best candidate for being scum)
{Dannflor, Klick} (has a maximum of 1 scum between them, could both be town but both have individual sus things--I'll say that Dannflor vaguely looks town but I wanna iso dive Dann/Klick next to check.)

fireisredsir

(almost certainly is the fourth scum but again, third scum

needs

to be eliminated first)

[mastina]

I think at least one of Ircher/SS if not both are scum. The timing of this slip argument right as SS gets pushed for reads is a bit sus when that argument was there all along.

I guess it kinda bothers me if you have something you feel strong about in S_S because I sort of doubt Titus and S_S are scum together?
which means I think one of us is wrong
Maybe it's too much of a jump to just assume that Titus would never make this post so early about two of her buddies but it just seems so brazen if so

Oh for what it's worth I agree with Dann here about Titus not being scum with Something_Smart. Given Dannflor pushed Titus from the getgo, I'm fairly comfortable calling him town here.

RCE's iso is a little concerned tbh, but I'm comfortable for now at least--there's better candidates.

Reading Klick's iso, I don't think he's actually scum here. The mechanics talk here doesn't feel TMI or defense of Ircher, and imo, this is incredibly indicative of Klick not being scum with Ircher:

We should either hammer Ircher or move on imo
I'm interested in pursuing an RCEnigma vote but I don't want to dampen the Ircher wagon for something that might not happen

Klick if he were scum could just have hopped off, but the framing of this is what I think is town. "Either hammer him or move on" is not a mindset I see an Ircher scumbuddy having there.

694 furthers it. The nuanced approach there just doesn't feel like a scum perspective to have on the game at all. 696 furthers it.

Basically every Klick post mentioning Ircher screams not-scumbuddy with him. But not forced. Not intended to look like it was. Not intended to look antiscum. It just is natural, fluid, and happens.

I don't give a rat's ass about 5 scum or 4 scum.

What I do care about is Ircher freezing. Ircher's last log in was today this morning after he was first asked about the question regarding his assumptions. While it may not be a slip, the freezing doesn't look good.

Idk if Titus is gonna rat out her scumbuddy like this

This is like the one post that has made me consider Titus!scum lol

This is a huge thing in making me think Klick is town here too.

But also, I wanna bring up 1014, probs best to do in a different post.

furtive gives away that he's scum with Titus there, and via that, that he and fireisredsir are the scumteam.

There's an outside

chance

that Mala could be scum, but Mala just doesn't fit. Mala is the only player who has no associations with Ircher/Titus that are antiscum, but she also lacks interactions with Ircher/Titus that indicate her being scum. Not really. Not compared to fire/furtive.

[mastina]

Hi. This is me.
Good luck scum.

Just as an in-hindsight thing, I read this post and was trying to figure out what the 'crumb was.
Sejuani's a cavalier guild champion, but neither trait was in TFT UPick.

In hindsight the 'good luck scum' was probably

actually talking to her scumbuddies

.

Oops.

(What this means tho is that at this stage, Titus knew she was going down. If "good luck scum" means Titus thought she was dead, then at that stage, she was aware she needed to set them up.)

Titus's iso doesn't really give me any hard-clears but does loosely support my fire/furtive guess here.

[mastina]

FINAL UPDATE:

TOWN NO MATTER WHAT:

{Ydrasse, Uncrowned} I don't think Ydrasse needs explaining here, and I'm willing to bet Uncrowned is town here, too.

TOWN PRETTY MUCH REGARDLESS:

{jjh927, PenguinPower, Something_Smart, Andresvmb} PenguinPower's response was town and PP has been town the entire game. jjh isn't quite as surefire, but he's still pretty much out of contention imo. Something_Smart joins the club. Andresvmb is pretty much there, too.

UNLIKELY SCUM:
{Dannflor, Klick}

WHAT'S LEFT:

Malakittens

(decent chance of being scum)

furtiveglance

(current best candidate for being scum)

fireisredsir

(almost certainly is the fourth scum)

To be honest at this stage I'm down to vote either furtive OR fire at this stage.
furtive flipping rolestopper would damn fire as the fourth, but even if furtive is, say, a mafia roleblocker, then I still think just from interactions + poe + play that fire is scum anyway.

It'd certainly have been more clear-cut if my cop result went through, but I think I targeted scum and baited out a panicked TMI scum perspective anyway.

[mastina]

(Btw I do owe an apology to Roden--I admit that a large part of my push on him was, quite simply: greed. I wanted to use my role on fire. I wanted the day to end quickly. I wanted either double validation in reads or a double hard-reset in them, with either both being scum or neither being scum. But I was perfectly okay with getting one town one scum, too. Basically I figured it was win-win no matter what:
If Roden flipped town and I got an innocent on fire, it'd provide me with a hard-reset on my perspective on the game, as none of my scumteams/assumptions/etc. could be possible with BOTH of them as town.

If Roden flipped scum and I got a guilty on fire, that'd basically be a game over for the scum, bringing them down to 1 scum left alive on D4.

If Roden flipped scum and I got an innocent on fire, it'd narrow the pool for Roden's scumbuddies down significantly.

If Roden flipped town and I got a guilty on fire, it'd provide a better frame for who the final two scum were thanks to the Roden wagon and fire not being expected to die.

No matter what, I figured it couldn't go wrong. But to pull it off, I needed Roden to die. I imagine Roden is quite upset at this, and for that I AM sorry, Roden. I know between defending Titus who flipped scum and attacking you when you were town it was infuriating for you, but I

did

have a good reason for it and if the push on you wins us the game via me having solved it by catching furtive + fire from the way the days played out, I hope you'd agree that'd be worth it for the town. One town sacrifice to clutch a town win.)

[mastina]

Also if I'm right about it being furtive + fire, let this be a lesson that leaving a competent wrong-town player alive after they have been shown to be wrong town yet made obvtown from their wrongtown status, that via them still being a competent player, and via them being obvtown, competency + obvtownness + reads shown to be wrong = reevaluate into more accurate, and deadly, reads.

If they rolecopped me N1 then they should've known that the better option was to kill me N2.

(Tbh this is one reason that I actually don't think they did. No, really. I was right about Ircher being scum on D1, and I had a cop shot to use N2. That's a scary combo for the scum. A roleblock wasn't going to keep me down. I legit think it's just more likely that they have a rolestopper in furtive or fire is ascetic. But if I am right, I guess we'll find out. Still was a misplay if it is a roleblock they used on me N2. Because I don't need a result in order to get mileage from investigating fire, I just need to LIVE in order to get mileage from investigating fire.)

[mastina]

I would like to claim now that my role is confirmable but thus far I have used it to target Ausuka on N2 and Lukewarm N3 and this is incredibly frustrating to me

(I need to go to bed, 6 hours of sleep was 5 minutes ago and that means every moment I waste is a moment less than 6 hours I'm not getting back)

(But gotta say first)
Klick is locktown because he's doing literally everything in his power to look like scum when there's only two scum left alive.

Also furtive is scum, but proper catchup needs to be tomorrow because again, late for bed.

[mastina]

(I'll vote whichever of fire/furtive has more votes.)

[mastina]

not just because of the claim (which I actually think is fake but still town).

As a reminder, still not here until like 12 hours from now minimum, but this, I GOTTA comment on right now.

You know why?

I don't necessarily trust the claim but I don't feel comfortable stating what I think mastina is doing.
~Titus

I'm actually quite certain that Titus in that game at one point used furtive's almost

exact

wording. (The iso is 6 pages long and ridiculously hard to search, so I can't find it. It could've been after I was dead or before, hard to find.) Where she said, effectively:
"I think mastina is town, but lying about her claim".

And furtive, in almost the exact wording I remember Titus using, goes "I think mastina is town, but lying about her claim".

I don't believe the similarity is coincidental.

[mastina]

I really don't see why jjh is town mastina I kind of assumed that read was because you saw town utility in jjh still being alive because you think he's strong

jjh is town basically because of him having not once furthered the scum wincon in any way shape or form, while doing work to further the town wincon. A scum jjh would do work to further the town wincon still, yes, but would by necessity need to have some form of furthering the scum wincon--which is utterly absent.

jjh has no condemning interactions with scum, nor do scum have condemning interactions with him.

His interactions loosely point to town, and his mechwork makes me still think town.

[mastina]

Alternatively, they’re executing VTs so that they can have the average be lower than 75% and get an additional NK. Actually, that’s probably why.

how would they know Lukewarm was a VT

Probably an educated guess?

To be fair, the VT/PR divide in this game is quite obvious. There's players I won't believe if they claim PRs; there's players I won't believe if they claim VTs; the scum would have to be utter morons to not be able to tell which are which.

Dannflor saying that he thought mastina was wrong town being sheeped by mafia, then sheeping mastina almost instantly...

This adds weight to my furtive scumread.

At the time Dannflor said 1999 I was scumreading and voting Roden; I was scumreading Lukewarm; I was townreading Titus; I was hard-defending Titus from the wagon.

Roden was town; Lukewarm was town; Titus was scum.

Dannflor was right in 1999--but my reads have since changed.

This is a scum discredit, not a genuine town thought process.

[mastina]

Something_Smart (tbh I want Something_Smart to claim because by play he fits as scum)

so what changed here
i feel like you've been very adamant about town!S_S this game

I was defending Something_Smart on the basis of believing him to be a town power role. No other reason.

By play, he looked like he was scum, so I wanted to have him claim his PR, to evaluate his claim for certain things that would help me determine town/scum.

However, that was rendered unnecessary by a look at his iso and the iso of the dead scum--Something_Smart is never scum here with Ircher and Titus. If you did the iso work I did, then you'd see why.

[mastina]

I don't really like your knee-jerk reaction to this but I feel like I don't have enough distance to tell whether it's actually AI or not

It is; it's incredibly scum.

[mastina]

If you agree so much, and you clearly do, can you give one point against me apart from not voting Titus?

It wasn't just not voting Titus.

It was the read progression on

both

Titus AND Ircher.

It was your stances, especially in the frame of reference of the time period.

It is also THEIR interactions with YOU.

(Plus, PoE. Dannflor isn't scum since you need only look at his entrance and how he was the second-biggest pusher of Titus outside of Lukewarm from the getgo. Dannflor came in and instantly, he was pushing Titus. When there was a scum elimination D1. He tried to dissuade the town from eliminating town and pushed hard on Titus. If that were a read that he didn't try to push through that'd be one thing but he was actually trying quote hard. But someone has to be scum and there's precious few players who can be.)

[mastina]

Preferred votes today are Dannflor and S_S.

AKA the two players hardest cleared by actually reading the isos of the dead scum and reading the isos of the players in question in regards to the dead scum?

No, really.

If you scumread Dannflor and/or Something_Smart, iso Titus;
Iso ircher;
Iso Dannflor / Something_Smart;
Check what their interactions tell you.

[mastina]

I wanted to say also that I think Mastina is stretching the town consensus out of shape in a bad way, and hurting town by being such a high poster. I know that's not easy to hear, and it's probably not obvious why I'm townreading Mastina in that case but I am, not just because of the claim (which I actually think is fake but still town).

So I mentioned the damning Titus part but this is also hypocritical. furtiveglance literally mentioned

just

in 2772 that Dannflor had said, basically: "mastina, I think you are town, hurting the town".
And in this post, furtive is saying, "mastina, I think you are town, hurting the town".

Beyond that, there's the fact that Dannflor's was constructive, reaching out to me--furtiveglance's is destructive, explicitly being a discredit.

[mastina]

not just because of the claim (which I actually think is fake but still town).

As a reminder, still not here until like 12 hours from now minimum, but this, I GOTTA comment on right now.

You know why?

I don't necessarily trust the claim but I don't feel comfortable stating what I think mastina is doing.
~Titus

I'm actually quite certain that Titus in that game at one point used furtive's almost

exact

wording. (The iso is 6 pages long and ridiculously hard to search, so I can't find it. It could've been after I was dead or before, hard to find.) Where she said, effectively:
"I think mastina is town, but lying about her claim".

And furtive, in almost the exact wording I remember Titus using, goes "I think mastina is town, but lying about her claim".

I don't believe the similarity is coincidental.

And Titus was scum that game?
So you're saying, either:
I read my scumbuddy's past scumgames to get some tips on how to act in exactly the same way as them so we all look the same as a scumteam

or:
Mafia always interact with me scumreading them in the same way e.g. "unlucky, wrong but town!"
Neither of these points are good.

How fortunate that neither was what I was getting at!

My point is that Titus was scum

this

game.
Titus, as scum in THIS game, has a scum PT to talk to her scumbuddies in.
Titus, as scum in THIS game, would be able to convey her thoughts on me to her scumbuddies.
Titus, as scum in THIS game, would also give play advice before going down--she would give advice to her scumbuddies and try to set them up with a path to victory.

You should have zero familiarity with Multiball 2.
So you should have zero similarity in treating me the way Titus treated me in Multiball 2.

Ergo:

furtiveglance treating me the same way Titus treated me in Multiball 2 indicates that he was part of the scum PT with Titus

.

It's a scumslip.

[mastina]

Interesting mastina isn’t voting you though.

I only have one vote and I actually believe furtive is more scum than fire, believe it or not.

I think both are scum, but I will vote whichever has more votes.

[mastina]

why is uncrowned town this game btw

Content + read progression + stances taken, mostly.

and like i kinda feel uncrowned doesn’t care at all about what’s happening today or really yesterday either

Sure, but that's a towntell, not a scumtell.

[mastina]

I think at least one of Ircher/SS if not both are scum. The timing of this slip argument right as SS gets pushed for reads is a bit sus when that argument was there all along.

i forgot i think this makes SS!scum less likely

Yes.

So the question would be: who's the scum?

You said it yourself: you don't think Klick is scum anymore.

You are also not scum.

Ydrasse is basically conftown so it's not her.

Who's that leave?

{Malakittens, PenguinPower, furtiveglance, Uncrowned, Andresvmb, jjh927, fireisredsir}, as a start.

I very strongly believe that Andres is town by play here.
I quite strongly believe that PenguinPower is town by play here.
I believe jjh is town by play here.
I believe Uncrowned is town by play here.

Which would leave just: {Malakittens, furtiveglance, fireisredsir}.
If you believe Mala to be town, then it's just {furtive, fire}.

[mastina]

what does it accomplish to claim you targeted Ausuka + Lukewarm?

Yo Dann I asked this same question of Roden.

Perhaps the people criticizing my point against Roden would like to justify why they are using my point against Roden, against Klick now, when they were defending Roden for doing it?

[mastina]

Oof
Mastina with the BARK
WHERES THE BITE

This game is getting exciting, but also frustrating. I'm at a point where I think I have a broadly correct poe of Dannflor (it should be Dannflor not RC btw Datisi), Malakittens, Something Smart, maybe Titus/Ydrasse, but it's hard to get those votes going. Let's see if we can revive the S_S wagon.
VOTE: Something_Smart

Uh oh.

We shouldn't fire Ydrasse, I think they're an Employee. I'll vote Ircher for now but I might unvote if they come on and explain why they thought 17/4.
VOTE: Ircher

Uh-oh.

Spoiler: (tl;dr: avoided voting both Titus AND Roden)

firing

Roden [5]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Klick, Ausuka, Uncrowned

Titus [3]:

Roden, fireisredsir, Lukewarm

Vivax [2]:

Ydrasse,

furtiveglance

firing

Roden [5]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Klick, Ausuka, Malakittens

Something_Smart [5]:

furtiveglance

, PenguinPower, Titus, Uncrowned, Vivax

Titus [3]:

Roden, fireisredsir, Lukewarm

firing

Roden [6]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Klick, Ausuka, Malakittens, Ydrasse

Something_Smart [3]:

PenguinPower, Titus, Uncrowned

RCEnigma [3]:

furtiveglance

, fireisredsir, Vivax

Titus [2]:

Roden, Lukewarm

firing

Roden [6]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Klick, Ausuka, Malakittens, Ydrasse

Titus [3]:

Roden, Lukewarm, Vivax

Something_Smart [3]:

PenguinPower, Titus, Uncrowned

RCEnigma [2]:

furtiveglance

, fireisredsir

firing

Roden [5]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Klick, Malakittens, Ydrasse

Titus [4]:

Roden, Lukewarm, Vivax, Ausuka

Malakittens [2]:

furtiveglance

, Uncrowned

firing

Roden [7]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Malakittens, Ydrasse, Titus, Uncrowned, PenguinPower

Titus [4]:

Roden, Lukewarm, Ausuka, Dannflor

Something_Smart [1]:

furtiveglance

mastina [1]:

fireisredsir

vote count 2.final

firing

Roden [9]:

mastina, Andresvmb, Malakittens, Ydrasse, Titus, Uncrowned, PenguinPower, Vivax, Lukewarm

[HAMMER]

Titus [3]:

Roden, Ausuka, Dannflor

Something_Smart [1]:

furtiveglance/size][

UH-OH.

...Maybe I had the "right idea, wrong person" with an f name that was deepwolf powertowning?

'Cause initial glance: that ain't a good luck for furtive.
Didn't vote Titus at all, vote on Ircher looks suspect, vote on Titus while claiming to have suspicion on prior day that isn't actually displayed in the votecounts = verrrrrrrrrrrrrrry suspect.

VOTE: furtiveglance

i have a role where i can check to see if people have pts(EXCEPT THE MAFIA PT) and join them if they do
titus doesn’t have any pts

dayummmmmmm
I think Titus is lying then
VOTE: Titus

i have a role where i can check to see if people have pts(EXCEPT THE MAFIA PT) and join them if they do
titus doesn’t have any pts

I am waiting for the mod. Technically accurate. I had a conditional action to masonize mastina if no one visited her. It resolves last in nar.

I do actually think Mastina will back this, so the smartest thing is to
UNVOTE: Titus

im going to wait for someone smart to tell me what this means
i don't think titus' claim makes sense tho

(I'm starting to think it might just be furtive + fire, but like: still have 20 pages to view AND THEN cross-reference with players' stances across the game, both flipped scum and the living players ON the flipped scum.)

etc.

[mastina]

@mastina I want to believe in your push for furtiveglance but I don’t. Like I’m not feeling it. I think Uncrowned’s posts are far more damming (particularly how they were grouping players based on Roden’s flip), and I would bet they’re trying to lay low not to attract too much attention in the hopes that Town implodes. I don’t think we should let them skate here.

I would bet you are wrong and that Uncrowned was just town with the same vibes as Ydrasse.

Seriously, without the knowledge that Ydrasse used her role to confscum Titus, look at Ydrasse's iso.
Look at Uncrowned's iso.

They are basically identical.

The difference is genuinely only that Ydrasse has since conftowned herself by having confscumed Titus. (Also, more players are familiar with Ydrasse and have played with her.) Genuinely, there were players on previous days who were saying what you are saying right now of Uncrowned, about Ydrasse; "Ydrasse is laying low to not attract too much attention" or something similar.

The proof that Uncrowned is town is that Ydrasse is town and Ydrasse was doing the very things Uncrowned did.

Uncrowned has a very good read progression on multiple players, one which demonstrates a lack of scum perspective.

[mastina]

so now he's too obvious to be scum but still worth putting up for hammer? or is he not anymore? this feels off

Btw, up to here, Uncrowned had voted Ircher alright, but they’re arguing for the vote to move

away

from Ircher, saying it “felt off” once Ircher was put at L-1 by Vivax. In terms of focus, outside of fire and Ydrasse, all of the shade they’ve cast up to then had been on flipped Town {Vivax, Lukewarm, Ausuka}. But not a whole lot of focus on the person they’re actually voting. I would also note they tried to place Titus towards their top of the pyramid early.

You know what those players all have in common?

They were nightkilled by the scum.

You know what scum players have a tendency to avoid doing?

They tend to avoid nightkilling the players that they, personally, are scumreading.
(Obviously, this isn't a guarantee, but is a

tendency

.)

That post is not something that is an unreasonable post for town to make and in fact looks antiscum. It's not really innately a town view so much as it is a view that scum are unlikely to have the nuance behind it which Uncrowned demonstrated--especially since Uncrowned's views demonstrate he's not the one making the scum nightkills here.

[mastina]

i mean just the idea that it was being brought up strategically to take pressure off a buddy, i really don't buy that being a thing someone (even titus) actually thinks about. stuff like that almost always gets found organically.

ok, this makes more sense. though I guess the question becomes how do you determine what is and isn't organic
I feel like this might be a good thing to take note of though and return to once some flips have happened

And this is soft defending Titus.

I think you're reading it backwards; that ain't a soft defense. That's a soft Titus-could-be-scum take. It's explicitly acknowledging that peta might be onto something, something that extra flips would then help to evaluate the accuracy of.

VOTE: Roden
time to play the game my friend

And then they find a reason to jump off once Nero starts saying that Ircher might be a mis-execution.

That is a towntell, not a scumtell. Ircher was in antispew mode at that point. Uncrowned hopping

off

of Ircher does not further the scum wincon there.
At that stage, hopping off of Ircher does nothing to prevent the Ircher wagon from going through.
At that stage, hopping off of Ircher removes any credit that could be had from bussing him.

So hopping

off

of Ircher hard-townspews him.

[mastina]

not just because of the claim (which I actually think is fake but still town).

As a reminder, still not here until like 12 hours from now minimum, but this, I GOTTA comment on right now.

You know why?

I don't necessarily trust the claim but I don't feel comfortable stating what I think mastina is doing.
~Titus

I'm actually quite certain that Titus in that game at one point used furtive's almost

exact

wording. (The iso is 6 pages long and ridiculously hard to search, so I can't find it. It could've been after I was dead or before, hard to find.) Where she said, effectively:
"I think mastina is town, but lying about her claim".

And furtive, in almost the exact wording I remember Titus using, goes "I think mastina is town, but lying about her claim".

I don't believe the similarity is coincidental.

And Titus was scum that game?
So you're saying, either:
I read my scumbuddy's past scumgames to get some tips on how to act in exactly the same way as them so we all look the same as a scumteam

or:
Mafia always interact with me scumreading them in the same way e.g. "unlucky, wrong but town!"
Neither of these points are good.

How fortunate that neither was what I was getting at!

My point is that Titus was scum

this

game.
Titus, as scum in THIS game, has a scum PT to talk to her scumbuddies in.
Titus, as scum in THIS game, would be able to convey her thoughts on me to her scumbuddies.
Titus, as scum in THIS game, would also give play advice before going down--she would give advice to her scumbuddies and try to set them up with a path to victory.

You should have zero familiarity with Multiball 2.
So you should have zero similarity in treating me the way Titus treated me in Multiball 2.

Ergo:

furtiveglance treating me the same way Titus treated me in Multiball 2 indicates that he was part of the scum PT with Titus

.

It's a scumslip.

I think this is the post of yours that I'm best responding to, although in a different post you said that I'm not addressing you directly/reaching out to you. That's true, I don't think that has value anymore, so I'm trying to prevent other players from scumreading/voting me, and trying to discredit what you're saying.

As for this post: Any player being pushed has two options regarding a player pushing them (three if you count null reading). Town reading or scum reading. I'm townreading you. Titus, as scum, townread you in a different game (which I've never read) when she was mafia. If you make it a binary choice of town/scum reading a player, and assign each one 50%, that's 25% chance that me and Titus 'treat you the same way'. It's not so unlikely, as to prove that we are buddies in a PT together. The logic you used to get here is insanely bad, so yeah I'm just highlighting that for other players.

Nice try but you leave out the most damning part:

(which I actually think is fake but still town).

You are specifically calling my claim "fake, but town".

That doesn't fit into the read binary narrative you're trying to present.

That is the scumslip involved.

Titus, in a different game, said "I think mastina is town, but her claim is fake".
You, by your own confession, have no familiarity with Titus from that game.
Titus, in this game, was scum, and would communicate her thoughts to her scumbuddies.
You, in this game, said "I think mastina is town, but her claim is fake".

That isn't "I think mastina is town, but wrong on me"--you're quite correct that's a reasonable stance to take!
But it isn't what you said.
You brought my claim into it. Specifically my claim. Calling the claim fake.

And

that

is the scumslip. To call my claim town-but-fake, in the exact way Titus in a different game called it town-but-fake.

[mastina]

not just because of the claim (which I actually think is fake but still town).

As a reminder, still not here until like 12 hours from now minimum, but this, I GOTTA comment on right now.

You know why?

I don't necessarily trust the claim but I don't feel comfortable stating what I think mastina is doing.
~Titus

I'm actually quite certain that Titus in that game at one point used furtive's almost

exact

wording. (The iso is 6 pages long and ridiculously hard to search, so I can't find it. It could've been after I was dead or before, hard to find.) Where she said, effectively:
"I think mastina is town, but lying about her claim".

And furtive, in almost the exact wording I remember Titus using, goes "I think mastina is town, but lying about her claim".

I don't believe the similarity is coincidental.

And Titus was scum that game?
So you're saying, either:
I read my scumbuddy's past scumgames to get some tips on how to act in exactly the same way as them so we all look the same as a scumteam

or:
Mafia always interact with me scumreading them in the same way e.g. "unlucky, wrong but town!"
Neither of these points are good.

How fortunate that neither was what I was getting at!

My point is that Titus was scum

this

game.
Titus, as scum in THIS game, has a scum PT to talk to her scumbuddies in.
Titus, as scum in THIS game, would be able to convey her thoughts on me to her scumbuddies.
Titus, as scum in THIS game, would also give play advice before going down--she would give advice to her scumbuddies and try to set them up with a path to victory.

You should have zero familiarity with Multiball 2.
So you should have zero similarity in treating me the way Titus treated me in Multiball 2.

Ergo:

furtiveglance treating me the same way Titus treated me in Multiball 2 indicates that he was part of the scum PT with Titus

.

It's a scumslip.

I think this is the post of yours that I'm best responding to, although in a different post you said that I'm not addressing you directly/reaching out to you. That's true, I don't think that has value anymore, so I'm trying to prevent other players from scumreading/voting me, and trying to discredit what you're saying.

As for this post: Any player being pushed has two options regarding a player pushing them (three if you count null reading). Town reading or scum reading. I'm townreading you. Titus, as scum, townread you in a different game (which I've never read) when she was mafia. If you make it a binary choice of town/scum reading a player, and assign each one 50%, that's 25% chance that me and Titus 'treat you the same way'. It's not so unlikely, as to prove that we are buddies in a PT together. The logic you used to get here is insanely bad, so yeah I'm just highlighting that for other players.

Nice try but you leave out the most damning part:

(which I actually think is fake but still town).

You are specifically calling my claim "fake, but town".

That doesn't fit into the read binary narrative you're trying to present.

That is the scumslip involved.

Titus, in a different game, said "I think mastina is town, but her claim is fake".
You, by your own confession, have no familiarity with Titus from that game.
Titus, in this game, was scum, and would communicate her thoughts to her scumbuddies.
You, in this game, said "I think mastina is town, but her claim is fake".

That isn't "I think mastina is town, but wrong on me"--you're quite correct that's a reasonable stance to take!
But it isn't what you said.
You brought my claim into it. Specifically my claim. Calling the claim fake.

And

that

is the scumslip. To call my claim town-but-fake, in the exact way Titus in a different game called it town-but-fake.

This point is so personal to you and your own experience. I understand the pattern recognition aspect of the similarity of my statement to hers, but to then envisage Titus advising me on how to play around a specific player (you), in such a large game, in a specific scenario (claiming).....this is outside the realm of reasonable speculation, and it comes from a gameview revolved around the self VS the mafia in my opinion. I don't think mafia have the capacity to conceive an idea so egocentric and paranoid. But yeah, wrong but town haha.

There's nothing egocentric about it--it's just basic familiarity with Titus's scumgame from having seen her be scum in over a dozen scumgames and witnessing her process in all of them.

She does, in fact, advise scumbuddies on how to play around a specific player, altho I would like to note that this is again not correctly identifying my point.
My point isn't that Titus told you to say "I think mastina is town, but wrong on me". She couldn't have; I was townreading you while Titus was alive. It'd be literally impossible for her to advise you specifically on how to treat me specifically.

My point is that Titus would have told her scumbuddies her thoughts on me,
And you displayed a viewpoint on me that matches exactly with how Titus would think of me.

Titus couldn't have told you how to react to me scumreading you. Titus couldn't have told you to say my claim is fake but to treat me as town.
But what Titus could do is tell you to townread me;
Separately, what Titus WOULD do is tell her scumbuddies her thoughts on my claim.

The latter half is in of itself the problem; the former half is only supporting it as very likely having also happened given the latter half.

Titus, in a past scumgame, stated of me: "mastina's claim is fake, but I think she's town".
Titus, in this game, didn't state that publicly, but would have done so privately.
You, in this game, stated of me: "mastina's claim is fake, but I think she's town".
You wouldn't have been told to do that by Titus.
But you

would

have access to Titus having said it privately, and would channel her thoughts on players, because Titus coaches her scumbuddies and gives feedback to them especially in relation to big names like me especially if her scumbuddies are less familiar with them.

Titus wouldn't have told you to say "mastina's claim is fake, but I think she's town".
Titus would share to her scumbuddies that she thought my claim is fake, in spite of me being town.
Titus would give her scumbuddies coaching and advice for a path to victory.
Titus's scumbuddies, having been given this coaching and advice, would be more likely to channel her thoughts from the scum PT, in efforts to follow her guide.
Titus's scumbuddies would thus, having access to her "mastina's claim is likely fake", channel it into the game thread.

And thus, the usage of "mastina's claim is fake, but I think she's town" is in fact a scumslip, because Titus would put that thought in the scum PT; Titus would coach her scumbuddies; Titus's scumbuddies, having received the coaching, would channel her thoughts from the scum PT.
Titus wouldn't have told her scumbuddies to say "mastina's claim is fake, but I think she's town", but Titus having thought it in the scum PT and having coached her scumbuddies would make her scumbuddies more likely to channel Titus's thoughts--including her having said that.

[mastina]

I don't have a concrete reason for it in my head but Dannflor doesn't feel like scum to me.

I, however, DO have a concrete reason for Dannflor being town!
Of the living players, he was THE strongest pusher of both Titus being scum AND Roden being town. He didn't just say "Titus is scum, Roden is town" and then let Roden die; he actually HARD-PUSHED for trying to eliminate Titus on D2.

That makes him just as clear as Lukewarm.

Exactly jjh/S_S doesn't seem right, they're also two players that I don't think I'd get a solid townread on easily if they were town (I do think one scum there is probably a good shout though?).

Something_Smart is pretty much hard-spewed not scum from Titus/Ircher interactions.

That, aside from Something_Smart looking town by play.

So even if it were jjh (and I don't think it is), he'd need a scumbuddy.

I've given my reasons for thinking furtive + fire works as a scumteam.
What works as a jjh scumteam? Not much!

[mastina]

Mastina retracted a guilty on Fire.

I did no such thing; the guilty is still a guilty--we just need to prove it.

[mastina]

As you can clearly see with the Titus push for Ircher / subsequent flip, the Scum came to the quick conclusion that being

on

Ircher was the better place to be than off. I’m not suggesting all of the Scum bussed Ircher (though it’s certainly possible), but I do feel like voting there was the right strategic push.

YO, Andre:

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm, Titus, furtiveglance, Ausuka, RCEnigma, Klick, BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax, PenguinPower, petapan

[HAMMER]

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

If you believe that scum thought being on Ircher was the better place to be than off...

...How do you reconcile that belief with the fact that Uncrowned in fact hopped off? At the very time which you say scum thought being on Ircher was the better place to be?

Uncrowned is town by your own logical thought process. And it happens to be one I agree with.

You CAN clearly see with the Titus push for Ircher and the subsequent flip that the scum came to the quick conclusion that being on Ircher was the better place to be than off.
But Uncrowned hopped

off

of Ircher at

around that time

.

I don't give a rat's ass about 5 scum or 4 scum.
What I do care about is Ircher freezing. Ircher's last log in was today this morning after he was first asked about the question regarding his assumptions. While it may not be a slip, the freezing doesn't look good.

VOTE: Roden

Titus doubled down on the Ircher push

at the same time Uncrowned hopped

off

of Ircher

.

That hard-clears Uncrowned by your own thought process.

Scum, at that point in the game, felt there was more value in being on the Ircher wagon.
Uncrowned hopped

off

of the Ircher wagon.
Ergo, Uncrowned did not feel there was more value in being on the Ircher wago.
Therefore, EITHER: scum at that point in the game did not in fact believe there was more value in being on the Ircher wagon (Uncrowned can still be scum),
OR: scum did in fact believe there was more value in being on the wagon and Uncrowned is town (what I believe).

[mastina]

Btw Mala: Happy birthday!

[mastina]

How does that set me up for success exactly, as Scum?

How does Uncrowned hopping

off

the Ircher wagon when the Ircher wagon was gaining momentum and scum knew Ircher was doomed,
Set Uncrowned up for success, exactly?

It doesn't.

[mastina]

even ending up voting Roden at the end of D1 and not being able to find a way back onto Ircher on time.

And scum gain

what

from being off the Ircher wagon, Andres?
Scum not managing to get back onto Ircher get WHAT from it?

You're literally using your lack of presence on the Ircher wagon as a reason why you are town--

why are you not using the logic that makes you town, on Uncrowned?

The very things which make you town, make him town.

[mastina]

But you know who they consistently SR’ed that actually ended up being mis-executed (and was therefore, not NK’ed)? Roden. I don’t think you should ignore that or brush it off like you are here.

You know who I also consistently scumread that ended up being mislimmed?

Roden.

I don't think you should ignore that or brush it off like you are here.

If you believe I am town, then the proof that a town player could do what Uncrowned did is literally right here.

I'm not going to be convinced a slot is scum for doing a thing that I did when I know I am town.

[mastina]

i mean just the idea that it was being brought up strategically to take pressure off a buddy, i really don't buy that being a thing someone (even titus) actually thinks about. stuff like that almost always gets found organically.

ok, this makes more sense. though I guess the question becomes how do you determine what is and isn't organic
I feel like this might be a good thing to take note of though and return to once some flips have happened

And this is soft defending Titus.

I think you're reading it backwards; that ain't a soft defense. That's a soft Titus-could-be-scum take. It's explicitly acknowledging that peta might be onto something, something that extra flips would then help to evaluate the accuracy of.

VOTE: Roden
time to play the game my friend

And then they find a reason to jump off once Nero starts saying that Ircher might be a mis-execution.

That is a towntell, not a scumtell. Ircher was in antispew mode at that point. Uncrowned hopping

off

of Ircher does not further the scum wincon there.
At that stage, hopping off of Ircher does nothing to prevent the Ircher wagon from going through.
At that stage, hopping off of Ircher removes any credit that could be had from bussing him.

So hopping

off

of Ircher hard-townspews him.

This is a very charitable interpretation of Uncrowned’s posts. petapan was very adamant that Titus was Scum. Them asking them to explain their take and then saying something like “well it really depends on what you feel is and isn’t organic” is surely a soft defense. It’s planting a seed of doubt in the mind of a player that was loudly pushing for Titus.

We were eliminating Ircher that day--"after some flips" = after an Ircher flip and the scum nightkills. There's nothing scum about tabling an elimination of one scum who has no wagon, in favor of eliminating one scum who has a wagon.

You are giving an incredibly uncharitable interpretation of Uncrowned's posts. Tabling the Titus point until a later day phase was the correct play there for town.

[mastina]

Yoooo birthday paradox
I just turned 25

Happ birf!!!

[mastina]

(I'm not in a good mindstate tonight you don't want me playing because if I were it'd be heavily hostile and I don't want the vitriol I'm feeling right now to be in game, will post when not feeling this way.)

[mastina]

Btw I need to take another

24-48 hour V/LA

I know, I know, no content until like Wednesday in spite of none for half a week. But I need the time for resting and a mental reset.

I wanna say this though:
I realize that most of the slots in the game have good reasons to be town.
I realize that most of the slots have at least some reason to be scum.

But

someone

has to be scum,
And most of the players are going to be town.

The scum are going to have things that can, or do, look town;
The town are going to have things that, thanks to their imperfect knowledge, in hindsight look like scum.

So it's mostly about weighing the probabilities of these events.
A few notable ones: {Ydrasse, Dannflor, Something_Smart} are the three players hardest cleared imo off of the scum flips. I'm never budging on these reads.

{Andres, Uncrowned} are the next tier in acting a way that I feel scum would not, but are not as hard-cleared as the above. I'm not supporting pushes on them until we get to like 5p and maybe not even then.

{PenguinPower, jjh} are the next tier in both not having any hard-clearing aspect but individually looking town and having solid contributions that demonstrate a thought process I feel to be town. I'm not supporting any push on them today, but I admit they require re-evaluation at a future date.

{Klick, Malakittens} are below that in neither having anything looking good for them in terms of interactions, but both vaguely looking town by play, just not as strong as the above. I'd prefer not to elim them tho.

{furtiveglance, fireisredsir} are the bottom tier for me simply because their reasons for being town look weakest to me and they have more reason to be scum than anyone else. Yes, they have things looking town. But most of what makes them town, are things that I don't think are actually indicative of being town. I recognize that I could be wrong, because I

see

the town--I just feel strongly in my gut that the things looking town, are not actually town.

[mastina]

Andre is prob town.

VOTE: Mastina

Back to bed for ma

:/ Uh what? Why?

I have played scum - Andre recently and this is like night and day compared to that last game.
It’s an early read, but I vibe with it.

Mastina is an RVS vote

For the record: I'm willing to trust Mala on this read, and this also moves Mala into town by some considerable margin.

Not sure if Mala is locktown, but she's north of null, and I am trusting her on Andres and moving him up to locktown.

[mastina]

vote count 1.final

with 21 votes in play, it took 11 to make a decision. day 1 ended.

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm, Titus, furtiveglance, Ausuka, RCEnigma, Klick, BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax, PenguinPower, petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens, fireisredsir

Ydrasse [2]:

Roden, Nero Cain

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb, Ircher

petapan [1]:

Something_Smart

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

not voting [1]:

Ydrasse

mod notes

~ i am using a vote counter, let me know if there are any mistakes.
~ this is a mod note.

flavour

flavour

now playing...
♫

Magazin - Oko moje sanjivo

♫
▶ ❚❚ ──────────────────────────●───  2:53 / 3:04

Oh, this is easy!

Fireisredsir COULD be scum.
Those are the only 2 who can be scum off-wagon, so there's 1-2 scum on. 1 if Fire is scum, 2 if Fire is town.

[mastina]

LOCKTOWN:
{Vivax, jjh927, Something_Smart}
{PenguinPower} (almost part of above)
{Ydrasse, Uncrowned, Andresvmb, furtiveglance, Ausuka}

SOFT TOWN:
{Klick}

{Malakittens, Titus}

POE POSSIBLE SCUM:
{RCEnigma}

LIKELY SCUM:
{fireisredsir}

SCUM:
{Lukewarm}

{Roden}

Ydrasse

,

Uncrowned

, and

Andresvmp

are purely play-based reads without the secret towntell present. I'm still sticking to this being Ydrasse's towngame. It's weaker than before, but Ydrasse radiated town earlier in a way I don't think is scum. Uncrowned's content has constantly been town. I've loved Andres's D2 posting (some in particular), and there's not enough room on a scumteam for both him and Malakittens so Malakittens trusting him is enough to bolster him to here regardless of Malakittens's alignment. He should always be town here and I

see

it.

fireisredsir

fits as the scum off the wagon, and by play radiates being scum. I feel Vivax caught a good scumslip from fire, and fire just gives off the vibe of being scum. There's plenty of small things that add up here.

[mastina]

Andresvmp

continues to be looking better and better, looking more and more town, and I trust Malakittens's read there regardless of Mala's alignment.

[mastina]

Mastina, can you elaborate on your Uncrowned and Andres reads? I feel like you keep skipping right over them

I'm not as convinced as others are that Andres is town, but I do

lean

town there overall.

Andres had players townread him early-on, and had town vibes. It wasn't anything that I can really point to and explain, but he just looked like he was solving in a way that

could

be faked, but was PROBABLY genuine from town.

Andre is prob town.

:/ Uh what? Why?

I have played scum - Andre recently and this is like night and day compared to that last game. It’s an early read, but I vibe with it.

For the record: I'm willing to trust Mala on this read.

Malakittens has kept this townread on Andres and has said it has gotten stronger and stronger with time. Malakittens insists that Andres is locktown in fact. Her townread on him is that strong. She is

sure

that Andres is town. She is certain that Andres cannot do this as scum.

Regardless of Malakittens's alignment, I trust that read.
If Malakittens is town, then her read there is genuine. The question then becomes how trustworthy is her locktown of Andres, and given what she's described and her experience with him and her confidence, I am willing to bet that she is right.
If Malakittens is scum, then

theoretically

she could be hard-townbinning a scumbuddy, but in practice, she wouldn't do that and there's not really room for both Malakittens and Andres on a team anyway. Mala could be scum, but Mala and Andres can't be.

Beyond that: Andres's content has gotten townier and townier with time. Especially on D2. Posts like this demonstrate a solid thought process highly likely to be town. 1052 is dead on the point. 1060 has some good vibes too in particular,

(I didn’t find the “slip” killer, the freezing is what did Ircher in)

This is something that literally everyone pushing Titus is ignoring. The Titus-scum narrative

relies

on the logic "Ircher was caught by the slip and was fucked". Andres is one of the only players in the game to put the deeper thought needed to realize that wasn't the case, that it was Ircher's later responses which sealed his fate with what he did and didn't do.

I find the 1091 into the followthrough to be sincere. While it's

possible

to be performative or even scum thinking that asking would be scummy and then immediately retracting, the more likely option given Andres was suspicious of Vivax initially was Andres wanted to push Vivax on the details of his claim, but then realized that would be anti-town and took it back.

The towniness really begins to skyrocket in 1123 and the followthrough though. The viewpoint is sincere and thoughtful enough that I don't see it as scum. The way he worded it, the way he thought of things, the way he approached it, all felt town.

1130 is a valid criticism of Roden and good point in defense of Titus.

1169 may be easy to fake as scum but was still something I read as sincere.

Andres's interactions with Roden radiate town at every stage regardless of Roden's alignment but

especially

if Roden is scum.

And the final nail in the coffin that locks Andres as town is this post, and the immediate follow-through (and subsequent elaboration).


When it comes to Uncrowned, it's largely been a combination of Reads I Liked, insight I liked, and the general vibes Uncrowned has given off: casual chill gaming that is still contributing and pushing in a pro-town way, akin to Ydrasse (speaking of which the Uncrowned-Ydrasse interactions make me townread both halves of the engagement). How Uncrowned has interacted with Roden was incredibly important. The engagement there looks like town who doesn't know what the alignment of the person they're interacting with is. 409 gives an example of this. 469 is a good post too.

Uncrowned is also the player who has voiced suspicion on me, which I find the least likely to have ulterior motives for having done so. Less than you, less than Lukewarm, heck even less than Something_Smart. Uncrowned's engagement there looks like genuine unfamiliarity with me and trying to figure me out, rather than scum who has a good idea of what I am like.


Basically while I lack meta on both, both are

highly

likely to be town by play.
I realize it doesn't display well in iso. Isoing them doesn't reveal them to be town.
Reading the game, however, DOES.

Their townness isn't found in iso; their townness is found in reading all the posts in the game and how their content relates specifically to the gamestate at the time and showing nuances.

[mastina]

Mastina, can you elaborate on your Uncrowned and Andres reads? I feel like you keep skipping right over them

I'm not as convinced as others are that Andres is town, but I do

lean

town there overall.

Andres had players townread him early-on, and had town vibes. It wasn't anything that I can really point to and explain, but he just looked like he was solving in a way that

could

be faked, but was PROBABLY genuine from town.

Andre is prob town.

:/ Uh what? Why?

I have played scum - Andre recently and this is like night and day compared to that last game. It’s an early read, but I vibe with it.

For the record: I'm willing to trust Mala on this read.

Malakittens has kept this townread on Andres and has said it has gotten stronger and stronger with time. Malakittens insists that Andres is locktown in fact. Her townread on him is that strong. She is

sure

that Andres is town. She is certain that Andres cannot do this as scum.

Regardless of Malakittens's alignment, I trust that read.
If Malakittens is town, then her read there is genuine. The question then becomes how trustworthy is her locktown of Andres, and given what she's described and her experience with him and her confidence, I am willing to bet that she is right.
If Malakittens is scum, then

theoretically

she could be hard-townbinning a scumbuddy, but in practice, she wouldn't do that and there's not really room for both Malakittens and Andres on a team anyway. Mala could be scum, but Mala and Andres can't be.

Beyond that: Andres's content has gotten townier and townier with time. Especially on D2. Posts like this demonstrate a solid thought process highly likely to be town. 1052 is dead on the point. 1060 has some good vibes too in particular,

(I didn’t find the “slip” killer, the freezing is what did Ircher in)

This is something that literally everyone pushing Titus is ignoring. The Titus-scum narrative

relies

on the logic "Ircher was caught by the slip and was fucked". Andres is one of the only players in the game to put the deeper thought needed to realize that wasn't the case, that it was Ircher's later responses which sealed his fate with what he did and didn't do.

I find the 1091 into the followthrough to be sincere. While it's

possible

to be performative or even scum thinking that asking would be scummy and then immediately retracting, the more likely option given Andres was suspicious of Vivax initially was Andres wanted to push Vivax on the details of his claim, but then realized that would be anti-town and took it back.

The towniness really begins to skyrocket in 1123 and the followthrough though. The viewpoint is sincere and thoughtful enough that I don't see it as scum. The way he worded it, the way he thought of things, the way he approached it, all felt town.

1130 is a valid criticism of Roden and good point in defense of Titus.

1169 may be easy to fake as scum but was still something I read as sincere.

Andres's interactions with Roden radiate town at every stage regardless of Roden's alignment but

especially

if Roden is scum.

And the final nail in the coffin that locks Andres as town is this post, and the immediate follow-through (and subsequent elaboration).


When it comes to Uncrowned, it's largely been a combination of Reads I Liked, insight I liked, and the general vibes Uncrowned has given off: casual chill gaming that is still contributing and pushing in a pro-town way, akin to Ydrasse (speaking of which the Uncrowned-Ydrasse interactions make me townread both halves of the engagement). How Uncrowned has interacted with Roden was incredibly important. The engagement there looks like town who doesn't know what the alignment of the person they're interacting with is. 409 gives an example of this. 469 is a good post too.

Uncrowned is also the player who has voiced suspicion on me, which I find the least likely to have ulterior motives for having done so. Less than you, less than Lukewarm, heck even less than Something_Smart. Uncrowned's engagement there looks like genuine unfamiliarity with me and trying to figure me out, rather than scum who has a good idea of what I am like.


Basically while I lack meta on both, both are

highly

likely to be town by play.
I realize it doesn't display well in iso. Isoing them doesn't reveal them to be town.
Reading the game, however, DOES.

Their townness isn't found in iso; their townness is found in reading all the posts in the game and how their content relates specifically to the gamestate at the time and showing nuances.

++

[mastina]

Mastina, can you elaborate on your Uncrowned and Andres reads? I feel like you keep skipping right over them

I'm not as convinced as others are that Andres is town, but I do

lean

town there overall.

Andres had players townread him early-on, and had town vibes. It wasn't anything that I can really point to and explain, but he just looked like he was solving in a way that

could

be faked, but was PROBABLY genuine from town.

Andre is prob town.

:/ Uh what? Why?

I have played scum - Andre recently and this is like night and day compared to that last game. It’s an early read, but I vibe with it.

For the record: I'm willing to trust Mala on this read.

Malakittens has kept this townread on Andres and has said it has gotten stronger and stronger with time. Malakittens insists that Andres is locktown in fact. Her townread on him is that strong. She is

sure

that Andres is town. She is certain that Andres cannot do this as scum.

Regardless of Malakittens's alignment, I trust that read.
If Malakittens is town, then her read there is genuine. The question then becomes how trustworthy is her locktown of Andres, and given what she's described and her experience with him and her confidence, I am willing to bet that she is right.
If Malakittens is scum, then

theoretically

she could be hard-townbinning a scumbuddy, but in practice, she wouldn't do that and there's not really room for both Malakittens and Andres on a team anyway. Mala could be scum, but Mala and Andres can't be.

Beyond that: Andres's content has gotten townier and townier with time. Especially on D2. Posts like this demonstrate a solid thought process highly likely to be town. 1052 is dead on the point. 1060 has some good vibes too in particular,

(I didn’t find the “slip” killer, the freezing is what did Ircher in)

This is something that literally everyone pushing Titus is ignoring. The Titus-scum narrative

relies

on the logic "Ircher was caught by the slip and was fucked". Andres is one of the only players in the game to put the deeper thought needed to realize that wasn't the case, that it was Ircher's later responses which sealed his fate with what he did and didn't do.

I find the 1091 into the followthrough to be sincere. While it's

possible

to be performative or even scum thinking that asking would be scummy and then immediately retracting, the more likely option given Andres was suspicious of Vivax initially was Andres wanted to push Vivax on the details of his claim, but then realized that would be anti-town and took it back.

The towniness really begins to skyrocket in 1123 and the followthrough though. The viewpoint is sincere and thoughtful enough that I don't see it as scum. The way he worded it, the way he thought of things, the way he approached it, all felt town.

1130 is a valid criticism of Roden and good point in defense of Titus.

1169 may be easy to fake as scum but was still something I read as sincere.

Andres's interactions with Roden radiate town at every stage regardless of Roden's alignment but

especially

if Roden is scum.

And the final nail in the coffin that locks Andres as town is this post, and the immediate follow-through (and subsequent elaboration).


When it comes to Uncrowned, it's largely been a combination of Reads I Liked, insight I liked, and the general vibes Uncrowned has given off: casual chill gaming that is still contributing and pushing in a pro-town way, akin to Ydrasse (speaking of which the Uncrowned-Ydrasse interactions make me townread both halves of the engagement). How Uncrowned has interacted with Roden was incredibly important. The engagement there looks like town who doesn't know what the alignment of the person they're interacting with is. 409 gives an example of this. 469 is a good post too.

Uncrowned is also the player who has voiced suspicion on me, which I find the least likely to have ulterior motives for having done so. Less than you, less than Lukewarm, heck even less than Something_Smart. Uncrowned's engagement there looks like genuine unfamiliarity with me and trying to figure me out, rather than scum who has a good idea of what I am like.


Basically while I lack meta on both, both are

highly

likely to be town by play.
I realize it doesn't display well in iso. Isoing them doesn't reveal them to be town.
Reading the game, however, DOES.

Their townness isn't found in iso; their townness is found in reading all the posts in the game and how their content relates specifically to the gamestate at the time and showing nuances.

++

(to be clear, this is extra important thus the ++)

[mastina]

Also, just from a game state perspective, the reason I haven’t been all that keen of moving away from Roden, is that I would naturally expect there to be a lot of resistance to the execution of a player if the Town were roughly moving in the right direction. And you can’t tell me that more than a few alternatives have not been offered to stop Roden from getting executed (Titus, Something_Smart, mastina, to name a few). This is purely circumstantial obviously, and it can be interpreted various different ways (a lot of Scum together pushing the wagon of a Town player stubbornly wouldn’t look that much different to this, except I don’t SR Klick, I think Ydrasse is Town, and I doubt Malakittens is insisting on me being Town just to pocket me).

+town

[mastina]

Like Klick just seems to be in lockstep with you without any real unique pushes or thoughts of his own.

I think if Dannflor had any genuine interest in sorting me and thought this, the town next step would be asking any questions about any of my reads
Instead, he's starting with a conclusion and saying this with intent to sound persuasive instead of to solve
Because he doesn't need to actually solve for me
Because he's scum

^This is a genuine thought regardless of Dannflor's alignment. It is a good one. May or may not be accurate, but it is a good thought that comes from town.

So Klick can't be scum voting.

Andres has shown incredible nuance in thought that strongly indicates him not being scum. I've explained this read in fairly strong detail, but Andres cannot be scum here.

PenguinPower is town for a bunch of reasons.

I've explained my Uncrowned townread and it is basically due to Uncrowned having highly unique of a perspective that I don't see as scum, for instance the progression on me.

[mastina]

vote count 4.07

with 12 votes in play, it takes 7 to make a decision. day 4 ends in (expired on 2022-10-14 01:15:00).

firing

Malakittens [3]:

fireisredsir, furtiveglance, Uncrowned

furtiveglance [2]:

mastina, PenguinPower

Andresvmb [2]:

Dannflor, Ydrasse

Uncrowned [1]:

Andresvmb

fireisredsir [1]:

Malakittens

not voting [3]:

Klick, Something_Smart, jjh927

mod notes

~ this is a mod note.

flavour

flavour

now playing...
♫

Dalmatino - Božić bijeli

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▶ ❚❚ ─────────────────────●─────────  2:44 / 3:30

[mastina]

genuinely enjoy accusing others of lying or not making sense and getting screamed at in return.

I've played with some that prob think that way.

I’m of the opinion that you would have seen Scum be more obvious about the assumption to try and avoid it being interpreted as a slip

would be funny if Ircher was just town that unknowingly "slipped" and the scum are voting him b/c they think he knows too much about the setup.

Hahaha okay. I think you’re Scum doubling down on a bad take.

I think that if he's scum his intention is to antagonize and annoy you. Or maybe I'm the one being dumb b/c I have a very very hard time believing that he actually thinks this.

Wit that said, Ircher is the type of scum that’s willing to take a bullet for a partner. So I don’t think Titus’ argument that Irchers wagon sprung up to divert from someone else is merit-less.

You think Ircher deliberately baited a wagon on himself? How?

this is a dumb post and totes not what he said.

If anything, Mastina is bussing him.

[mastina]

Why are we voting andres

Because the town wants to eliminate one of the towninest slots in the game because they lack the thinking required to clear Andres.

I had my computer crash so I can't actually case Andres as town, but basically, if you read his iso in context rather than in isolation, it's never scum, ever.

Plus, Andres has zero good scumbuddies.
Who'd be scum with him?

There isn't a single player who fits.

Keep in mind, 2 scum alive.
Andres is at L-1.
IF Andres were scum, who would that leave as possible scum?

[mastina]

Dann can't be scum;
Ydrasse can't be scum;
Klick turned the Andres wagon into a proper wagon so can't be scum with Andres;
PP can't be scum with Andres;
Fire can't be scum with Andres;

Uncrowned , furtive, S_S, jjh , Mala are the only five who can be.

Andres is voting Uncrowned, which eliminates him.
S_S is spewed town, so not him


Only options left: furtive, jjh, Mala.

In those 3, you ALWAYS eliminate Mala/furtive FIRST.

Because furtive is more scum than Andres,
Mala more suspect than Andres and defending him whole game.

But really, Andres is just never scum hete.

[mastina]

Why are we voting andres

Because the town wants to eliminate one of the towninest slots in the game because they lack the thinking required to clear Andres.

I had my computer crash so I can't actually case Andres as town, but basically, if you read his iso in context rather than in isolation, it's never scum, ever.

Plus, Andres has zero good scumbuddies.
Who'd be scum with him?

There isn't a single player who fits.

Keep in mind, 2 scum alive.
Andres is at L-1.
IF Andres were scum, who would that leave as possible scum?

Basically, with only 2 scum left alive, scum CAN’T hard bus.
Distance, sure.
But not hard bus.

That eliminates all players as scumbuddies except Mala/furtive/jjh.

Furtive has far more reason to be scum;
Mala is more suspect and has been defending Andres the whole game.

So you should NEVER be eliminating Andres first. The only time that's correct is if it's a Andres/jjh team.

In all other worlds, Andres is town or not the scum to eliminate first.

[mastina]

I've read and agree with 3191 and also think it makes jjh rather likely town

I disagree since the only take there not already a given is the fire town bit, which has logical gaps in it.

It doesn't make jjh town, either.

Granted!

I think that jjh is town anyway.

Just, not for that.

(Work, more tomorrow or possibly tonight.)

[mastina]

Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

[mastina]

Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

So I can’t quote the posts and actually do the breakdown now, but I can save at least some time by laying out some basic groundwork now:

WHAT WE KNOW:

-

IRCHER DELIBERATELY DIED D1

. Instead of trying to recover from the slip, he entered antispew mode, deliberately not trying to save himself. He accepted death and made no efforts to avert it.
-

TITUS HARD-BUSSED IRCHER

. Titus, notoriously an anti-bus player, bussed. Eventually, she even doubled down on the bus, as she was the first player to point out that Ircher was online yet not posting. While she might've made some attempts to weaken the wagon prior to then, it was at that moment you could tell that she was committed to the bus, and hard-pushed for Ircher's death.

CONCLUSION:

The scum knew that Ircher was going to be the D1 elimination. They explicitly were okay with this and planned around it. Both flipped scum past a certain point made no effort to save Ircher, so at least half of the scumteam not only was okay with his death, but actively pushed towards it.

Their motives for doing so are speculation. I tried to word the above in a neutral way not favoring any particular speculate as to the why, although maybe there's an even better wording for the above. So don't take the above to be favoring one specific Motive.
Still, I feel it's not controversial to say that it's a fact that the scum did, indeed, do the above. The motivation for WHY they did it is speculatory, but them doing it is fact. The scum let Ircher die, and actively pushed for it.

SPECULATION:

Because both flipped scum were okay with an Ircher elimination, it is

more likely

that the surviving scum also were. It is not confirmed, scum comms can be hectic, but it's generally a reasonable assumption. I won't be treating it as fact, and will still cover scenarios requiring those situations.

However, this leads to a generalized posit:

It is

less likely

both remaining scum are off the Ircher wagon

Not impossible, but I will cover the different scenarios when doing a detailed breakdown on how it's possible, and how likely it is. (Lack of scum coordination, scum genuinely believing that being off was better, etc.)

I can't list all the possible both-off, both-on, 50/50 teams right now, but I'll do so just before the detailed breakdown begins.

Next part:

The Titus voters on D2:

]/size]
I should specify: I

mostly

expect the early Titus votes to be nai; any wagon could’ve gone through that early, so Titus was in no real danger;
I

mostly

expect the late Titus votes to be nai, because Roden's elimination past a certain point became basically inevitable, meaning that scum could place votes there which were performative.

However, the middle section of the day is important: when both wagons could’ve gone through, hopping onto Titus is more likely town; hopping off of Titus is slightly more likely scum.

Inversely, hopping onto Roden is slightly more likely to be scum at that point. (Hopping off isn’t town tho imo.)

D3 is important to note who demonstrated followthrough on Titus before the results had fully played out. The results also have town spewing lack of info and scum revealing TMI imo.

And D4 is important, because while weak pushes aren't antipartner, strong extended serious actual pushes backed by wagons are indicators that greatly reduce the odds of the individuals being partnered.

Again, not impossible.

But I will be showing across all four fields the requirements. What needed to go on for this scumteam to be possible. And the improbabilities stack and multiply. One improbability doesn’t disqualify a scumteam from contention. 3+ almost assuredly makes it borderline impossible.

The more requirements for a dcumteam to exist, the more convoluted the process becomes, the more justification required and the more stretches of logic required across those key areas, the less likely the scumteam is.

Yes, this will lead to some "lazy" teams being relatively higher up, but I'll get to those when I finish.

I'm probably not explaining this properly, will try to lay it out better later.

[mastina]

Well Mala is dead and going to flip town and I don't have the time to respond to jjh yet alone do the work that I was going to show my homework on why I think it's fire + furtive so now if I die during the night, you're not going to have the process by which I can show them to be the scumteam! (That they both voted Mala should be a bit of a giveaway tho.)

(Obi Wan Clone Wars) Good job! (/Obi Wan Clone Wars)

[mastina]

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, fire}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

[mastina]

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, fire}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

I realize one-on one-off has a lot more combos, which is why I wanted the bloody time to lay this all out.

{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, fire}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

A lot more combos, which I'd have been happy to break down if you hadn't fucking hammered when I asked for a day. (Particular shame on you, jjh, for not unvoting when you knew I wanted this.)

[mastina]

Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

So I can’t quote the posts and actually do the breakdown now, but I can save at least some time by laying out some basic groundwork now:

WHAT WE KNOW:

-

IRCHER DELIBERATELY DIED D1

. Instead of trying to recover from the slip, he entered antispew mode, deliberately not trying to save himself. He accepted death and made no efforts to avert it.
-

TITUS HARD-BUSSED IRCHER

. Titus, notoriously an anti-bus player, bussed. Eventually, she even doubled down on the bus, as she was the first player to point out that Ircher was online yet not posting. While she might've made some attempts to weaken the wagon prior to then, it was at that moment you could tell that she was committed to the bus, and hard-pushed for Ircher's death.

CONCLUSION:

The scum knew that Ircher was going to be the D1 elimination. They explicitly were okay with this and planned around it. Both flipped scum past a certain point made no effort to save Ircher, so at least half of the scumteam not only was okay with his death, but actively pushed towards it.

Their motives for doing so are speculation. I tried to word the above in a neutral way not favoring any particular speculate as to the why, although maybe there's an even better wording for the above. So don't take the above to be favoring one specific Motive.
Still, I feel it's not controversial to say that it's a fact that the scum did, indeed, do the above. The motivation for WHY they did it is speculatory, but them doing it is fact. The scum let Ircher die, and actively pushed for it.

SPECULATION:

Because both flipped scum were okay with an Ircher elimination, it is

more likely

that the surviving scum also were. It is not confirmed, scum comms can be hectic, but it's generally a reasonable assumption. I won't be treating it as fact, and will still cover scenarios requiring those situations.

However, this leads to a generalized posit:

It is

less likely

both remaining scum are off the Ircher wagon

Not impossible, but I will cover the different scenarios when doing a detailed breakdown on how it's possible, and how likely it is. (Lack of scum coordination, scum genuinely believing that being off was better, etc.)

I can't list all the possible both-off, both-on, 50/50 teams right now, but I'll do so just before the detailed breakdown begins.

Next part:

The Titus voters on D2:

I should specify: I

mostly

expect the early Titus votes to be nai; any wagon could’ve gone through that early, so Titus was in no real danger;
I

mostly

expect the late Titus votes to be nai, because Roden's elimination past a certain point became basically inevitable, meaning that scum could place votes there which were performative.

However, the middle section of the day is important: when both wagons could’ve gone through, hopping onto Titus is more likely town; hopping off of Titus is slightly more likely scum.

Inversely, hopping onto Roden is slightly more likely to be scum at that point. (Hopping off isn’t town tho imo.)

D3 is important to note who demonstrated followthrough on Titus before the results had fully played out. The results also have town spewing lack of info and scum revealing TMI imo.

And D4 is important, because while weak pushes aren't antipartner, strong extended serious actual pushes backed by wagons are indicators that greatly reduce the odds of the individuals being partnered.

Again, not impossible.

But I will be showing across all four fields the requirements. What needed to go on for this scumteam to be possible. And the improbabilities stack and multiply. One improbability doesn’t disqualify a scumteam from contention. 3+ almost assuredly makes it borderline impossible.

The more requirements for a scumteam to exist, the more convoluted the process becomes, the more justification required and the more stretches of logic required across those key areas, the less likely the scumteam is.

Yes, this will lead to some "lazy" teams being relatively higher up, but I'll get to those when I finish.

I'm probably not explaining this properly, will try to lay it out better later.

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, fire}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

I realize one-on one-off has a lot more combos, which is why I wanted the bloody time to lay this all out.

{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, fire}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

A lot more combos, which I'd have been happy to break down if you hadn't fucking hammered when I asked for a day. (Particular shame on you, jjh, for not unvoting when you knew I wanted this.)

Putting these together, Datisi could lock any minute so gotta go fast.

[mastina]

Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

So I can’t quote the posts and actually do the breakdown now, but I can save at least some time by laying out some basic groundwork now:

WHAT WE KNOW:

-

IRCHER DELIBERATELY DIED D1

. Instead of trying to recover from the slip, he entered antispew mode, deliberately not trying to save himself. He accepted death and made no efforts to avert it.
-

TITUS HARD-BUSSED IRCHER

. Titus, notoriously an anti-bus player, bussed. Eventually, she even doubled down on the bus, as she was the first player to point out that Ircher was online yet not posting. While she might've made some attempts to weaken the wagon prior to then, it was at that moment you could tell that she was committed to the bus, and hard-pushed for Ircher's death.

CONCLUSION:

The scum knew that Ircher was going to be the D1 elimination. They explicitly were okay with this and planned around it. Both flipped scum past a certain point made no effort to save Ircher, so at least half of the scumteam not only was okay with his death, but actively pushed towards it.

Their motives for doing so are speculation. I tried to word the above in a neutral way not favoring any particular speculate as to the why, although maybe there's an even better wording for the above. So don't take the above to be favoring one specific Motive.
Still, I feel it's not controversial to say that it's a fact that the scum did, indeed, do the above. The motivation for WHY they did it is speculatory, but them doing it is fact. The scum let Ircher die, and actively pushed for it.

SPECULATION:

Because both flipped scum were okay with an Ircher elimination, it is

more likely

that the surviving scum also were. It is not confirmed, scum comms can be hectic, but it's generally a reasonable assumption. I won't be treating it as fact, and will still cover scenarios requiring those situations.

However, this leads to a generalized posit:

It is

less likely

both remaining scum are off the Ircher wagon

Not impossible, but I will cover the different scenarios when doing a detailed breakdown on how it's possible, and how likely it is. (Lack of scum coordination, scum genuinely believing that being off was better, etc.)

I can't list all the possible both-off, both-on, 50/50 teams right now, but I'll do so just before the detailed breakdown begins.

Next part:

The Titus voters on D2:

I should specify: I

mostly

expect the early Titus votes to be nai; any wagon could’ve gone through that early, so Titus was in no real danger;
I

mostly

expect the late Titus votes to be nai, because Roden's elimination past a certain point became basically inevitable, meaning that scum could place votes there which were performative.

However, the middle section of the day is important: when both wagons could’ve gone through, hopping onto Titus is more likely town; hopping off of Titus is slightly more likely scum.

Inversely, hopping onto Roden is slightly more likely to be scum at that point. (Hopping off isn’t town tho imo.)

D3 is important to note who demonstrated followthrough on Titus before the results had fully played out. The results also have town spewing lack of info and scum revealing TMI imo.

And D4 is important, because while weak pushes aren't antipartner, strong extended serious actual pushes backed by wagons are indicators that greatly reduce the odds of the individuals being partnered.

Again, not impossible.

But I will be showing across all four fields the requirements. What needed to go on for this scumteam to be possible. And the improbabilities stack and multiply. One improbability doesn’t disqualify a scumteam from contention. 3+ almost assuredly makes it borderline impossible.

The more requirements for a scumteam to exist, the more convoluted the process becomes, the more justification required and the more stretches of logic required across those key areas, the less likely the scumteam is.

Yes, this will lead to some "lazy" teams being relatively higher up, but I'll get to those when I finish.

I'm probably not explaining this properly, will try to lay it out better later.

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, fire}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

I realize one-on one-off has a lot more combos, which is why I wanted the bloody time to lay this all out.

{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, fire}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

A lot more combos, which I'd have been happy to break down if you hadn't fucking hammered when I asked for a day. (Particular shame on you, jjh, for not unvoting when you knew I wanted this.)

Putting these together, Datisi could lock any minute so gotta go fast.

Starting with a pagetop.

[mastina]

vote count 2.02

firing

Titus [3]:

Roden, fireisredsir, Lukewarm

vote count 2.04

firing

Titus [2]:

Roden, Lukewarm

Ausuka [2]:

fireisredsir, Vivax

Note the fire hop-off there btw.

[mastina]

Spoiler: keeping this in the record

Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

So I can’t quote the posts and actually do the breakdown now, but I can save at least some time by laying out some basic groundwork now:

WHAT WE KNOW:

-

IRCHER DELIBERATELY DIED D1

. Instead of trying to recover from the slip, he entered antispew mode, deliberately not trying to save himself. He accepted death and made no efforts to avert it.
-

TITUS HARD-BUSSED IRCHER

. Titus, notoriously an anti-bus player, bussed. Eventually, she even doubled down on the bus, as she was the first player to point out that Ircher was online yet not posting. While she might've made some attempts to weaken the wagon prior to then, it was at that moment you could tell that she was committed to the bus, and hard-pushed for Ircher's death.

CONCLUSION:

The scum knew that Ircher was going to be the D1 elimination. They explicitly were okay with this and planned around it. Both flipped scum past a certain point made no effort to save Ircher, so at least half of the scumteam not only was okay with his death, but actively pushed towards it.

Their motives for doing so are speculation. I tried to word the above in a neutral way not favoring any particular speculate as to the why, although maybe there's an even better wording for the above. So don't take the above to be favoring one specific Motive.
Still, I feel it's not controversial to say that it's a fact that the scum did, indeed, do the above. The motivation for WHY they did it is speculatory, but them doing it is fact. The scum let Ircher die, and actively pushed for it.

SPECULATION:

Because both flipped scum were okay with an Ircher elimination, it is

more likely

that the surviving scum also were. It is not confirmed, scum comms can be hectic, but it's generally a reasonable assumption. I won't be treating it as fact, and will still cover scenarios requiring those situations.

However, this leads to a generalized posit:

It is

less likely

both remaining scum are off the Ircher wagon

Not impossible, but I will cover the different scenarios when doing a detailed breakdown on how it's possible, and how likely it is. (Lack of scum coordination, scum genuinely believing that being off was better, etc.)

I can't list all the possible both-off, both-on, 50/50 teams right now, but I'll do so just before the detailed breakdown begins.

Next part:

The Titus voters on D2:

I should specify: I

mostly

expect the early Titus votes to be nai; any wagon could’ve gone through that early, so Titus was in no real danger;
I

mostly

expect the late Titus votes to be nai, because Roden's elimination past a certain point became basically inevitable, meaning that scum could place votes there which were performative.

However, the middle section of the day is important: when both wagons could’ve gone through, hopping onto Titus is more likely town; hopping off of Titus is slightly more likely scum.

Inversely, hopping onto Roden is slightly more likely to be scum at that point. (Hopping off isn’t town tho imo.)

D3 is important to note who demonstrated followthrough on Titus before the results had fully played out. The results also have town spewing lack of info and scum revealing TMI imo.

And D4 is important, because while weak pushes aren't antipartner, strong extended serious actual pushes backed by wagons are indicators that greatly reduce the odds of the individuals being partnered.

Again, not impossible.

But I will be showing across all four fields the requirements. What needed to go on for this scumteam to be possible. And the improbabilities stack and multiply. One improbability doesn’t disqualify a scumteam from contention. 3+ almost assuredly makes it borderline impossible.

The more requirements for a scumteam to exist, the more convoluted the process becomes, the more justification required and the more stretches of logic required across those key areas, the less likely the scumteam is.

Yes, this will lead to some "lazy" teams being relatively higher up, but I'll get to those when I finish.

I'm probably not explaining this properly, will try to lay it out better later.

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, fire}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

I realize one-on one-off has a lot more combos, which is why I wanted the bloody time to lay this all out.

{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, fire}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

A lot more combos, which I'd have been happy to break down if you hadn't fucking hammered when I asked for a day. (Particular shame on you, jjh, for not unvoting when you knew I wanted this.)

Putting these together, Datisi could lock any minute so gotta go fast.

Starting with a pagetop.

VOTE: fire

why is it not believable that i would target the same player twice in a row?

The cost is 150%. (Do the math--0% productivity on D1 + 50% productivity on D2 = 150% banked for N2.)

whats the issue penguin

why do you think someone with a 150% requirement is going to act again/why do you think scum lying about it would take an action that's not killing you?

choo choo
VOTE: furtive

I do happen to agree with mastina's takes, however.

(Which is fire + furtive)

I actually don’t really want s_s anymore today…prefer furtive or fire.

Still completely fine with yeeting furtive.

btw was there a reason we aren't killing fire today i forgot

No idea. Furtive/fire are my preference but I’m sheeping you rn.

We can safely eliminate PenguinPower from being paired with either fire or furtive because those have been his pushes today.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

(Both off unchanged.)

[mastina]

Spoiler: keeping this in the record

Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

So I can’t quote the posts and actually do the breakdown now, but I can save at least some time by laying out some basic groundwork now:

WHAT WE KNOW:

-

IRCHER DELIBERATELY DIED D1

. Instead of trying to recover from the slip, he entered antispew mode, deliberately not trying to save himself. He accepted death and made no efforts to avert it.
-

TITUS HARD-BUSSED IRCHER

. Titus, notoriously an anti-bus player, bussed. Eventually, she even doubled down on the bus, as she was the first player to point out that Ircher was online yet not posting. While she might've made some attempts to weaken the wagon prior to then, it was at that moment you could tell that she was committed to the bus, and hard-pushed for Ircher's death.

CONCLUSION:

The scum knew that Ircher was going to be the D1 elimination. They explicitly were okay with this and planned around it. Both flipped scum past a certain point made no effort to save Ircher, so at least half of the scumteam not only was okay with his death, but actively pushed towards it.

Their motives for doing so are speculation. I tried to word the above in a neutral way not favoring any particular speculate as to the why, although maybe there's an even better wording for the above. So don't take the above to be favoring one specific Motive.
Still, I feel it's not controversial to say that it's a fact that the scum did, indeed, do the above. The motivation for WHY they did it is speculatory, but them doing it is fact. The scum let Ircher die, and actively pushed for it.

SPECULATION:

Because both flipped scum were okay with an Ircher elimination, it is

more likely

that the surviving scum also were. It is not confirmed, scum comms can be hectic, but it's generally a reasonable assumption. I won't be treating it as fact, and will still cover scenarios requiring those situations.

However, this leads to a generalized posit:

It is

less likely

both remaining scum are off the Ircher wagon

Not impossible, but I will cover the different scenarios when doing a detailed breakdown on how it's possible, and how likely it is. (Lack of scum coordination, scum genuinely believing that being off was better, etc.)

I can't list all the possible both-off, both-on, 50/50 teams right now, but I'll do so just before the detailed breakdown begins.

Next part:

The Titus voters on D2:

I should specify: I

mostly

expect the early Titus votes to be nai; any wagon could’ve gone through that early, so Titus was in no real danger;
I

mostly

expect the late Titus votes to be nai, because Roden's elimination past a certain point became basically inevitable, meaning that scum could place votes there which were performative.

However, the middle section of the day is important: when both wagons could’ve gone through, hopping onto Titus is more likely town; hopping off of Titus is slightly more likely scum.

Inversely, hopping onto Roden is slightly more likely to be scum at that point. (Hopping off isn’t town tho imo.)

D3 is important to note who demonstrated followthrough on Titus before the results had fully played out. The results also have town spewing lack of info and scum revealing TMI imo.

And D4 is important, because while weak pushes aren't antipartner, strong extended serious actual pushes backed by wagons are indicators that greatly reduce the odds of the individuals being partnered.

Again, not impossible.

But I will be showing across all four fields the requirements. What needed to go on for this scumteam to be possible. And the improbabilities stack and multiply. One improbability doesn’t disqualify a scumteam from contention. 3+ almost assuredly makes it borderline impossible.

The more requirements for a scumteam to exist, the more convoluted the process becomes, the more justification required and the more stretches of logic required across those key areas, the less likely the scumteam is.

Yes, this will lead to some "lazy" teams being relatively higher up, but I'll get to those when I finish.

I'm probably not explaining this properly, will try to lay it out better later.

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, jjh}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

I realize one-on one-off has a lot more combos, which is why I wanted the bloody time to lay this all out.

{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, fire}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

A lot more combos, which I'd have been happy to break down if you hadn't fucking hammered when I asked for a day. (Particular shame on you, jjh, for not unvoting when you knew I wanted this.)

Putting these together, Datisi could lock any minute so gotta go fast.

Starting with a pagetop.

VOTE: fire

why is it not believable that i would target the same player twice in a row?

The cost is 150%. (Do the math--0% productivity on D1 + 50% productivity on D2 = 150% banked for N2.)

whats the issue penguin

why do you think someone with a 150% requirement is going to act again/why do you think scum lying about it would take an action that's not killing you?

choo choo
VOTE: furtive

I do happen to agree with mastina's takes, however.

(Which is fire + furtive)

I actually don’t really want s_s anymore today…prefer furtive or fire.

Still completely fine with yeeting furtive.

btw was there a reason we aren't killing fire today i forgot

No idea. Furtive/fire are my preference but I’m sheeping you rn.

We can safely eliminate PenguinPower from being paired with either fire or furtive because those have been his pushes today.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

(Both off unchanged.)

Scum:
furtiveglance

Okay, question for furtiveglance and specifically NOT Nero then
Who are Nero's scumreads

More. (That whole area is RE: furtive pretty much.)

My gut reaction is that you have placed much higher value on broadcasting the fact that you have reads and making sure everyone else knows you have reads than I would expect of town

You hope others will townread you because of your reads, draw attention to them as a defence, and generally seem more preoccupied with ticking that "thing that town players do" box rather than using it as a tool to spur conversation and more accurately place people
At the base level, you appear to prioritise being townread over gaining information with which to eliminate scum.

Yeah, the gut read was very much based on the earlygame. We're moving into logic territory now as the gears are turning and I'm now also concerned by your lack of interaction with your scumreads

For the record, I have read your list of reads, both while just keeping up and also while rereading the whole game a couple of hours back.
But yeah, generally speaking, your scumreads look entirely observational in nature and you don't seem to have made an effort to verify that. Ircher being absent makes that understandable to an extent but I'd feel better if you'd had a meaningful interaction with Roden somewhere

Pretty sure these were with furtive, too.

This is a rush job, not reading entire iso to check later stages so could be incorrect, but:

Generally speaking, jjh's interactions significantly reduce the chance of him being scum with furtive.

That being said, I have been thinking about this game and I'd like to help mastina revive the wagon on
VOTE: furtiveglance

Means 2 scum in Furtive, Mala, Klick, Uncrowned, and I'm very much swayed by mastina's point on furtive's 2820. That might depend on whether or not Mastina actually HAS left something out of her role. Scum 100% rolecopped Mastina in n1, because Titus' fakeclaim came before Mastina's and copied the 150% cost to make it more credible

The other names are Klick/Uncrowned, but there's not enough for jjh to be unpaired with them, sadly. jjh has soft-defended Klick but has no such defense of Uncrowned tho. And jjh can be scum with those he lists as town.

Still, that leaves:
The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)
(Also fixed the accidental double-up of Uncrowned+fire the latter of which was jjh.)

[mastina]

Spoiler: keeping this in the record

Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

So I can’t quote the posts and actually do the breakdown now, but I can save at least some time by laying out some basic groundwork now:

WHAT WE KNOW:

-

IRCHER DELIBERATELY DIED D1

. Instead of trying to recover from the slip, he entered antispew mode, deliberately not trying to save himself. He accepted death and made no efforts to avert it.
-

TITUS HARD-BUSSED IRCHER

. Titus, notoriously an anti-bus player, bussed. Eventually, she even doubled down on the bus, as she was the first player to point out that Ircher was online yet not posting. While she might've made some attempts to weaken the wagon prior to then, it was at that moment you could tell that she was committed to the bus, and hard-pushed for Ircher's death.

CONCLUSION:

The scum knew that Ircher was going to be the D1 elimination. They explicitly were okay with this and planned around it. Both flipped scum past a certain point made no effort to save Ircher, so at least half of the scumteam not only was okay with his death, but actively pushed towards it.

Their motives for doing so are speculation. I tried to word the above in a neutral way not favoring any particular speculate as to the why, although maybe there's an even better wording for the above. So don't take the above to be favoring one specific Motive.
Still, I feel it's not controversial to say that it's a fact that the scum did, indeed, do the above. The motivation for WHY they did it is speculatory, but them doing it is fact. The scum let Ircher die, and actively pushed for it.

SPECULATION:

Because both flipped scum were okay with an Ircher elimination, it is

more likely

that the surviving scum also were. It is not confirmed, scum comms can be hectic, but it's generally a reasonable assumption. I won't be treating it as fact, and will still cover scenarios requiring those situations.

However, this leads to a generalized posit:

It is

less likely

both remaining scum are off the Ircher wagon

Not impossible, but I will cover the different scenarios when doing a detailed breakdown on how it's possible, and how likely it is. (Lack of scum coordination, scum genuinely believing that being off was better, etc.)

I can't list all the possible both-off, both-on, 50/50 teams right now, but I'll do so just before the detailed breakdown begins.

Next part:

The Titus voters on D2:

I should specify: I

mostly

expect the early Titus votes to be nai; any wagon could’ve gone through that early, so Titus was in no real danger;
I

mostly

expect the late Titus votes to be nai, because Roden's elimination past a certain point became basically inevitable, meaning that scum could place votes there which were performative.

However, the middle section of the day is important: when both wagons could’ve gone through, hopping onto Titus is more likely town; hopping off of Titus is slightly more likely scum.

Inversely, hopping onto Roden is slightly more likely to be scum at that point. (Hopping off isn’t town tho imo.)

D3 is important to note who demonstrated followthrough on Titus before the results had fully played out. The results also have town spewing lack of info and scum revealing TMI imo.

And D4 is important, because while weak pushes aren't antipartner, strong extended serious actual pushes backed by wagons are indicators that greatly reduce the odds of the individuals being partnered.

Again, not impossible.

But I will be showing across all four fields the requirements. What needed to go on for this scumteam to be possible. And the improbabilities stack and multiply. One improbability doesn’t disqualify a scumteam from contention. 3+ almost assuredly makes it borderline impossible.

The more requirements for a scumteam to exist, the more convoluted the process becomes, the more justification required and the more stretches of logic required across those key areas, the less likely the scumteam is.

Yes, this will lead to some "lazy" teams being relatively higher up, but I'll get to those when I finish.

I'm probably not explaining this properly, will try to lay it out better later.

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, jjh}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

I realize one-on one-off has a lot more combos, which is why I wanted the bloody time to lay this all out.

{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, fire}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

A lot more combos, which I'd have been happy to break down if you hadn't fucking hammered when I asked for a day. (Particular shame on you, jjh, for not unvoting when you knew I wanted this.)

Putting these together, Datisi could lock any minute so gotta go fast.

Starting with a pagetop.

VOTE: fire

why is it not believable that i would target the same player twice in a row?

The cost is 150%. (Do the math--0% productivity on D1 + 50% productivity on D2 = 150% banked for N2.)

whats the issue penguin

why do you think someone with a 150% requirement is going to act again/why do you think scum lying about it would take an action that's not killing you?

choo choo
VOTE: furtive

I do happen to agree with mastina's takes, however.

(Which is fire + furtive)

I actually don’t really want s_s anymore today…prefer furtive or fire.

Still completely fine with yeeting furtive.

btw was there a reason we aren't killing fire today i forgot

No idea. Furtive/fire are my preference but I’m sheeping you rn.

We can safely eliminate PenguinPower from being paired with either fire or furtive because those have been his pushes today.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

(Both off unchanged.)

Scum:
furtiveglance

Okay, question for furtiveglance and specifically NOT Nero then
Who are Nero's scumreads

More. (That whole area is RE: furtive pretty much.)

My gut reaction is that you have placed much higher value on broadcasting the fact that you have reads and making sure everyone else knows you have reads than I would expect of town

You hope others will townread you because of your reads, draw attention to them as a defence, and generally seem more preoccupied with ticking that "thing that town players do" box rather than using it as a tool to spur conversation and more accurately place people
At the base level, you appear to prioritise being townread over gaining information with which to eliminate scum.

Yeah, the gut read was very much based on the earlygame. We're moving into logic territory now as the gears are turning and I'm now also concerned by your lack of interaction with your scumreads

For the record, I have read your list of reads, both while just keeping up and also while rereading the whole game a couple of hours back.
But yeah, generally speaking, your scumreads look entirely observational in nature and you don't seem to have made an effort to verify that. Ircher being absent makes that understandable to an extent but I'd feel better if you'd had a meaningful interaction with Roden somewhere

Pretty sure these were with furtive, too.

This is a rush job, not reading entire iso to check later stages so could be incorrect, but:

Generally speaking, jjh's interactions significantly reduce the chance of him being scum with furtive.

That being said, I have been thinking about this game and I'd like to help mastina revive the wagon on
VOTE: furtiveglance

Means 2 scum in Furtive, Mala, Klick, Uncrowned, and I'm very much swayed by mastina's point on furtive's 2820. That might depend on whether or not Mastina actually HAS left something out of her role. Scum 100% rolecopped Mastina in n1, because Titus' fakeclaim came before Mastina's and copied the 150% cost to make it more credible

The other names are Klick/Uncrowned, but there's not enough for jjh to be unpaired with them, sadly. jjh has soft-defended Klick but has no such defense of Uncrowned tho. And jjh can be scum with those he lists as town.

Still, that leaves:
The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)
(Also fixed the accidental double-up of Uncrowned+fire the latter of which was jjh.)

VOTE: Uncrowned

I didn't queue up the prior Andres posts where he stated Uncrowned suspicion since he didn't act on it until today, but Andres was soft-pushing Uncrowned the entire game and opened today with a harder push against Uncrowned.

You can safely eliminate an {Uncrowned, Andres} scumteam as a result.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)

[mastina]

I need to clarify:
No, this is NOT me doing the detailed version I had planned to do.

This is me rushing to beat Datisi so this is, explicitly, a rush job.

This is not the level of thoroughness I wanted to give; this is me giving as much as I can in as little time as I have.

[mastina]

Spoiler: keeping this in the record

I need to clarify:
No, this is NOT me doing the detailed version I had planned to do.

This is me rushing to beat Datisi so this is, explicitly, a rush job.

This is not the level of thoroughness I wanted to give; this is me giving as much as I can in as little time as I have.

Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

So I can’t quote the posts and actually do the breakdown now, but I can save at least some time by laying out some basic groundwork now:

WHAT WE KNOW:

-

IRCHER DELIBERATELY DIED D1

. Instead of trying to recover from the slip, he entered antispew mode, deliberately not trying to save himself. He accepted death and made no efforts to avert it.
-

TITUS HARD-BUSSED IRCHER

. Titus, notoriously an anti-bus player, bussed. Eventually, she even doubled down on the bus, as she was the first player to point out that Ircher was online yet not posting. While she might've made some attempts to weaken the wagon prior to then, it was at that moment you could tell that she was committed to the bus, and hard-pushed for Ircher's death.

CONCLUSION:

The scum knew that Ircher was going to be the D1 elimination. They explicitly were okay with this and planned around it. Both flipped scum past a certain point made no effort to save Ircher, so at least half of the scumteam not only was okay with his death, but actively pushed towards it.

Their motives for doing so are speculation. I tried to word the above in a neutral way not favoring any particular speculate as to the why, although maybe there's an even better wording for the above. So don't take the above to be favoring one specific Motive.
Still, I feel it's not controversial to say that it's a fact that the scum did, indeed, do the above. The motivation for WHY they did it is speculatory, but them doing it is fact. The scum let Ircher die, and actively pushed for it.

SPECULATION:

Because both flipped scum were okay with an Ircher elimination, it is

more likely

that the surviving scum also were. It is not confirmed, scum comms can be hectic, but it's generally a reasonable assumption. I won't be treating it as fact, and will still cover scenarios requiring those situations.

However, this leads to a generalized posit:

It is

less likely

both remaining scum are off the Ircher wagon

Not impossible, but I will cover the different scenarios when doing a detailed breakdown on how it's possible, and how likely it is. (Lack of scum coordination, scum genuinely believing that being off was better, etc.)

I can't list all the possible both-off, both-on, 50/50 teams right now, but I'll do so just before the detailed breakdown begins.

Next part:

The Titus voters on D2:

I should specify: I

mostly

expect the early Titus votes to be nai; any wagon could’ve gone through that early, so Titus was in no real danger;
I

mostly

expect the late Titus votes to be nai, because Roden's elimination past a certain point became basically inevitable, meaning that scum could place votes there which were performative.

However, the middle section of the day is important: when both wagons could’ve gone through, hopping onto Titus is more likely town; hopping off of Titus is slightly more likely scum.

Inversely, hopping onto Roden is slightly more likely to be scum at that point. (Hopping off isn’t town tho imo.)

D3 is important to note who demonstrated followthrough on Titus before the results had fully played out. The results also have town spewing lack of info and scum revealing TMI imo.

And D4 is important, because while weak pushes aren't antipartner, strong extended serious actual pushes backed by wagons are indicators that greatly reduce the odds of the individuals being partnered.

Again, not impossible.

But I will be showing across all four fields the requirements. What needed to go on for this scumteam to be possible. And the improbabilities stack and multiply. One improbability doesn’t disqualify a scumteam from contention. 3+ almost assuredly makes it borderline impossible.

The more requirements for a scumteam to exist, the more convoluted the process becomes, the more justification required and the more stretches of logic required across those key areas, the less likely the scumteam is.

Yes, this will lead to some "lazy" teams being relatively higher up, but I'll get to those when I finish.

I'm probably not explaining this properly, will try to lay it out better later.

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, jjh}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

I realize one-on one-off has a lot more combos, which is why I wanted the bloody time to lay this all out.

{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, fire}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

A lot more combos, which I'd have been happy to break down if you hadn't fucking hammered when I asked for a day. (Particular shame on you, jjh, for not unvoting when you knew I wanted this.)

Putting these together, Datisi could lock any minute so gotta go fast.

Starting with a pagetop.

VOTE: fire

why is it not believable that i would target the same player twice in a row?

The cost is 150%. (Do the math--0% productivity on D1 + 50% productivity on D2 = 150% banked for N2.)

whats the issue penguin

why do you think someone with a 150% requirement is going to act again/why do you think scum lying about it would take an action that's not killing you?

choo choo
VOTE: furtive

I do happen to agree with mastina's takes, however.

(Which is fire + furtive)

I actually don’t really want s_s anymore today…prefer furtive or fire.

Still completely fine with yeeting furtive.

btw was there a reason we aren't killing fire today i forgot

No idea. Furtive/fire are my preference but I’m sheeping you rn.

We can safely eliminate PenguinPower from being paired with either fire or furtive because those have been his pushes today.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

(Both off unchanged.)

Scum:
furtiveglance

Okay, question for furtiveglance and specifically NOT Nero then
Who are Nero's scumreads

More. (That whole area is RE: furtive pretty much.)

My gut reaction is that you have placed much higher value on broadcasting the fact that you have reads and making sure everyone else knows you have reads than I would expect of town

You hope others will townread you because of your reads, draw attention to them as a defence, and generally seem more preoccupied with ticking that "thing that town players do" box rather than using it as a tool to spur conversation and more accurately place people
At the base level, you appear to prioritise being townread over gaining information with which to eliminate scum.

Yeah, the gut read was very much based on the earlygame. We're moving into logic territory now as the gears are turning and I'm now also concerned by your lack of interaction with your scumreads

For the record, I have read your list of reads, both while just keeping up and also while rereading the whole game a couple of hours back.
But yeah, generally speaking, your scumreads look entirely observational in nature and you don't seem to have made an effort to verify that. Ircher being absent makes that understandable to an extent but I'd feel better if you'd had a meaningful interaction with Roden somewhere

Pretty sure these were with furtive, too.

This is a rush job, not reading entire iso to check later stages so could be incorrect, but:

Generally speaking, jjh's interactions significantly reduce the chance of him being scum with furtive.

That being said, I have been thinking about this game and I'd like to help mastina revive the wagon on
VOTE: furtiveglance

Means 2 scum in Furtive, Mala, Klick, Uncrowned, and I'm very much swayed by mastina's point on furtive's 2820. That might depend on whether or not Mastina actually HAS left something out of her role. Scum 100% rolecopped Mastina in n1, because Titus' fakeclaim came before Mastina's and copied the 150% cost to make it more credible

The other names are Klick/Uncrowned, but there's not enough for jjh to be unpaired with them, sadly. jjh has soft-defended Klick but has no such defense of Uncrowned tho. And jjh can be scum with those he lists as town.

Still, that leaves:
The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)
(Also fixed the accidental double-up of Uncrowned+fire the latter of which was jjh.)

VOTE: Uncrowned

I didn't queue up the prior Andres posts where he stated Uncrowned suspicion since he didn't act on it until today, but Andres was soft-pushing Uncrowned the entire game and opened today with a harder push against Uncrowned.

You can safely eliminate an {Uncrowned, Andres} scumteam as a result.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)

Oh yeah I should do this
VOTE: Malakittens

elaborate

Slightly reduces the Uncrowned-jjh pairing on the Uncrowned half.

m willing to throw my vote in the "will go to ircher if things move away and then struggle to return there" if that helps

but ok, that seems reasonable i think, and i at least understand your thought process more now

i don't get why you question me, gets answers, ignore them, and then shift your vote from me to titus after ydrasse unvotes me

it's like you want to engage but then when you actually receive answers, you just go to something else while still throwing shade, like keeping your options open?

"idk why people think uncrowned is town because ive looked at his scumplay, but it also looks like his townplay" or whatever. it's just constant hedging and has been a theme of your play this game. your actual solidified reads are few and far between and it seems like you're leaving doors open to keep your play flexible, something i'd attribute much more as +scum. maybe it's the low confidence thing you're talking about, but this seems awfully non-committal

it kinda seems like her thoughts are surface level intended to sound reasonable tho? like she hasn't said anything super out there it's just that they don't feel like they quite click into a consistent mindset, like luke was saying

it's like you see opportunities to make comments but then not provided much follow up? like the titus vote in general doesn't feel super convincing

also, couldn't we apply this same logic to you? what makes your two slots different? up until your vote on her, you had very little to say about her so what changed? from what i'm aware of, her main string of posting had already occurred before your vote on me, and you didn't have a lot to say then

what
i thought your answers were fine and didn't continue to engage with them bc i thought they were fine and i didn't have anything further to say
i then voted elsewhere bc i thought you had been fine since then
i don't particularly scumread you anymore but i don't really understand the townreads either. you seem solidly in range of both alignments to me. there's some stuff that feels genuine, and some stuff that feels off

so i've "been fine"
but some stuff "feels off"
that you still haven't engaged on
ok imma leave this for now this is getting nowhere lmao

Hammer Ircher!

am happy to soon, we have plenty of time and i don't think this is the type of slot that's going to talk their way out of the wagon shifting elsewhere, given what we've seen so far from Ircher's posting

are you in a hurry for some reason?

these reads feel kinda convenient

(This was to furtive, so Uncrowned was calling furtive's reads convenient.)

I'm not submitting a gamesolve here, I'm trying to flag up scummy players that are being ignored.

yeah but that just seems like town signalling (idk if that's the right phrase for it) instead of just, pushing the slots?

green flip would have me looking in {Mastina, Andre, Kilck, Mala, Ydrasse} with preference being: Mala, Andre, Mastina, Ydrasse, Klick

red flip would have me looking in (Luke, Fire} with preference being Luke

i am unsure of where i stand on furtive, ausuka, yourself, jjh

What are we doing? Voting fires?
VOTE: firez

i guess so
VOTE: Fire

Secondly, I have felt for many moons that Malakittens is not town. Could it be Mala/Uncrowned?
I'll backstab Uncrowned after townreading him all game, because Andres wants it and I'd like to see some momentum on a non F name. Don't get me wrong, Dannflor is still suspicious.
VOTE: Uncrowned

ooo interesting

My final guess for mafia is [Malakittens, Uncrowned].

when did you start to feel this way about me bby

furtive does deserve to die tho for betraying me ngl now that I think about it

Unfortunately, none of these hard-remove any scumteam with Uncrowned. However, softly, these indicate less-likely scum with furtive, fire, and maybe Klick. Not enough to be removed, but enough to be knocked down into "less likely".

{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}

{furtive, Uncrowned}

(reduced probability by interaction with furtive)
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}

{Klick, Uncrowned}

(potentially reduced probability due to interaction, but not certain thanks to no follow-through)
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}

{fire, Uncrowned}

(reduced probability by interaction with fire)
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick + Uncrowned-jjh interaction, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)

[mastina]

Spoiler: keeping this in the record

I need to clarify:
No, this is NOT me doing the detailed version I had planned to do.

This is me rushing to beat Datisi so this is, explicitly, a rush job.

This is not the level of thoroughness I wanted to give; this is me giving as much as I can in as little time as I have.

Btw, what I am planning to do either tonight or tomorrow is, basically, show my math/homework on logical deductions off of what we know so far.

STARTING POINTS:
Ydrasse town;
Dannflor slot town;
Something_Smart town.

With these four starting points, I want to highlight four key areas of the game:
The end of day Ircher wagon;
Every Titus vote on D2 and the circumstances behind those votes and unvotes;
The reactions (not votes) on D3 prior to the final inevitable conclusion of the day;
Interactions this day phase.

I want to better illustrate every possible remaining team given the assumptions above (Ydrasse/Dann/S_S town), demonstrating what they would require in order to be true, and why I think of those combos the way I do:
Basically impossible, plausible but unlikely, possible (yet a bit lazy), and then actually probable combos that fit the evidence throughout all four key areas.

This is because I believe that interactions are, mostly, more important than individual towniness here, and while individual towniness is not to be discarded altogether, in a gamestate where everyone has reasons to be town and everyone has reasons to be scum yet exactly two living players are scum, individual towniness can just be smart/good scumplay, whereas interactions across the key areas of the game highlight the narratives of each team combo and their necessary steps to function. A tool that I feel is far more likely to get scum eliminated.

I did this mentally already and it was how I got the fire/furtive team, as a team that fits the most easily.
But I didn’t map it out for y'all and need to show my work, as well as cover things my mental math may have overlooked.

I will admit that the shortcuts I used mean that I could’ve overlooked a correct combo, but I need the time either tonight or tomorrow to demonstrate what I am really talking about here and why I feel the way I do.

So I can’t quote the posts and actually do the breakdown now, but I can save at least some time by laying out some basic groundwork now:

WHAT WE KNOW:

-

IRCHER DELIBERATELY DIED D1

. Instead of trying to recover from the slip, he entered antispew mode, deliberately not trying to save himself. He accepted death and made no efforts to avert it.
-

TITUS HARD-BUSSED IRCHER

. Titus, notoriously an anti-bus player, bussed. Eventually, she even doubled down on the bus, as she was the first player to point out that Ircher was online yet not posting. While she might've made some attempts to weaken the wagon prior to then, it was at that moment you could tell that she was committed to the bus, and hard-pushed for Ircher's death.

CONCLUSION:

The scum knew that Ircher was going to be the D1 elimination. They explicitly were okay with this and planned around it. Both flipped scum past a certain point made no effort to save Ircher, so at least half of the scumteam not only was okay with his death, but actively pushed towards it.

Their motives for doing so are speculation. I tried to word the above in a neutral way not favoring any particular speculate as to the why, although maybe there's an even better wording for the above. So don't take the above to be favoring one specific Motive.
Still, I feel it's not controversial to say that it's a fact that the scum did, indeed, do the above. The motivation for WHY they did it is speculatory, but them doing it is fact. The scum let Ircher die, and actively pushed for it.

SPECULATION:

Because both flipped scum were okay with an Ircher elimination, it is

more likely

that the surviving scum also were. It is not confirmed, scum comms can be hectic, but it's generally a reasonable assumption. I won't be treating it as fact, and will still cover scenarios requiring those situations.

However, this leads to a generalized posit:

It is

less likely

both remaining scum are off the Ircher wagon

Not impossible, but I will cover the different scenarios when doing a detailed breakdown on how it's possible, and how likely it is. (Lack of scum coordination, scum genuinely believing that being off was better, etc.)

I can't list all the possible both-off, both-on, 50/50 teams right now, but I'll do so just before the detailed breakdown begins.

Next part:

The Titus voters on D2:

I should specify: I

mostly

expect the early Titus votes to be nai; any wagon could’ve gone through that early, so Titus was in no real danger;
I

mostly

expect the late Titus votes to be nai, because Roden's elimination past a certain point became basically inevitable, meaning that scum could place votes there which were performative.

However, the middle section of the day is important: when both wagons could’ve gone through, hopping onto Titus is more likely town; hopping off of Titus is slightly more likely scum.

Inversely, hopping onto Roden is slightly more likely to be scum at that point. (Hopping off isn’t town tho imo.)

D3 is important to note who demonstrated followthrough on Titus before the results had fully played out. The results also have town spewing lack of info and scum revealing TMI imo.

And D4 is important, because while weak pushes aren't antipartner, strong extended serious actual pushes backed by wagons are indicators that greatly reduce the odds of the individuals being partnered.

Again, not impossible.

But I will be showing across all four fields the requirements. What needed to go on for this scumteam to be possible. And the improbabilities stack and multiply. One improbability doesn’t disqualify a scumteam from contention. 3+ almost assuredly makes it borderline impossible.

The more requirements for a scumteam to exist, the more convoluted the process becomes, the more justification required and the more stretches of logic required across those key areas, the less likely the scumteam is.

Yes, this will lead to some "lazy" teams being relatively higher up, but I'll get to those when I finish.

I'm probably not explaining this properly, will try to lay it out better later.

vote count 1.final

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm

,

Titus

, furtiveglance,

Ausuka, RCEnigma

, Klick,

BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax

, PenguinPower,

petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens

, fireisredsir

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb,

Ircher

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

So would ya look at this.

The only possible both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}
{Uncrowned, jjh}

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{furtive, PenguinPower}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

Wouldn't ya know it? None of those both-remaining-on combos seem particularly likely but if they were, furtive is in prime scum position right there with Titus.

So the only realistic possibilities are both-remaining-off (unlikely), or one-on one-off.

I realize one-on one-off has a lot more combos, which is why I wanted the bloody time to lay this all out.

{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, fire}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

A lot more combos, which I'd have been happy to break down if you hadn't fucking hammered when I asked for a day. (Particular shame on you, jjh, for not unvoting when you knew I wanted this.)

Putting these together, Datisi could lock any minute so gotta go fast.

Starting with a pagetop.

VOTE: fire

why is it not believable that i would target the same player twice in a row?

The cost is 150%. (Do the math--0% productivity on D1 + 50% productivity on D2 = 150% banked for N2.)

whats the issue penguin

why do you think someone with a 150% requirement is going to act again/why do you think scum lying about it would take an action that's not killing you?

choo choo
VOTE: furtive

I do happen to agree with mastina's takes, however.

(Which is fire + furtive)

I actually don’t really want s_s anymore today…prefer furtive or fire.

Still completely fine with yeeting furtive.

btw was there a reason we aren't killing fire today i forgot

No idea. Furtive/fire are my preference but I’m sheeping you rn.

We can safely eliminate PenguinPower from being paired with either fire or furtive because those have been his pushes today.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{furtive, jjh}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

(Both off unchanged.)

Scum:
furtiveglance

Okay, question for furtiveglance and specifically NOT Nero then
Who are Nero's scumreads

More. (That whole area is RE: furtive pretty much.)

My gut reaction is that you have placed much higher value on broadcasting the fact that you have reads and making sure everyone else knows you have reads than I would expect of town

You hope others will townread you because of your reads, draw attention to them as a defence, and generally seem more preoccupied with ticking that "thing that town players do" box rather than using it as a tool to spur conversation and more accurately place people
At the base level, you appear to prioritise being townread over gaining information with which to eliminate scum.

Yeah, the gut read was very much based on the earlygame. We're moving into logic territory now as the gears are turning and I'm now also concerned by your lack of interaction with your scumreads

For the record, I have read your list of reads, both while just keeping up and also while rereading the whole game a couple of hours back.
But yeah, generally speaking, your scumreads look entirely observational in nature and you don't seem to have made an effort to verify that. Ircher being absent makes that understandable to an extent but I'd feel better if you'd had a meaningful interaction with Roden somewhere

Pretty sure these were with furtive, too.

This is a rush job, not reading entire iso to check later stages so could be incorrect, but:

Generally speaking, jjh's interactions significantly reduce the chance of him being scum with furtive.

That being said, I have been thinking about this game and I'd like to help mastina revive the wagon on
VOTE: furtiveglance

Means 2 scum in Furtive, Mala, Klick, Uncrowned, and I'm very much swayed by mastina's point on furtive's 2820. That might depend on whether or not Mastina actually HAS left something out of her role. Scum 100% rolecopped Mastina in n1, because Titus' fakeclaim came before Mastina's and copied the 150% cost to make it more credible

The other names are Klick/Uncrowned, but there's not enough for jjh to be unpaired with them, sadly. jjh has soft-defended Klick but has no such defense of Uncrowned tho. And jjh can be scum with those he lists as town.

Still, that leaves:
The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, Uncrowned}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)
(Also fixed the accidental double-up of Uncrowned+fire the latter of which was jjh.)

VOTE: Uncrowned

I didn't queue up the prior Andres posts where he stated Uncrowned suspicion since he didn't act on it until today, but Andres was soft-pushing Uncrowned the entire game and opened today with a harder push against Uncrowned.

You can safely eliminate an {Uncrowned, Andres} scumteam as a result.

The only possible both-remaining-on combos are:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}
{furtive, Uncrowned}
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}
{Klick, Uncrowned}
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}
{fire, Uncrowned}
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)

Oh yeah I should do this
VOTE: Malakittens

elaborate

Slightly reduces the Uncrowned-jjh pairing on the Uncrowned half.

m willing to throw my vote in the "will go to ircher if things move away and then struggle to return there" if that helps

but ok, that seems reasonable i think, and i at least understand your thought process more now

i don't get why you question me, gets answers, ignore them, and then shift your vote from me to titus after ydrasse unvotes me

it's like you want to engage but then when you actually receive answers, you just go to something else while still throwing shade, like keeping your options open?

"idk why people think uncrowned is town because ive looked at his scumplay, but it also looks like his townplay" or whatever. it's just constant hedging and has been a theme of your play this game. your actual solidified reads are few and far between and it seems like you're leaving doors open to keep your play flexible, something i'd attribute much more as +scum. maybe it's the low confidence thing you're talking about, but this seems awfully non-committal

it kinda seems like her thoughts are surface level intended to sound reasonable tho? like she hasn't said anything super out there it's just that they don't feel like they quite click into a consistent mindset, like luke was saying

it's like you see opportunities to make comments but then not provided much follow up? like the titus vote in general doesn't feel super convincing

also, couldn't we apply this same logic to you? what makes your two slots different? up until your vote on her, you had very little to say about her so what changed? from what i'm aware of, her main string of posting had already occurred before your vote on me, and you didn't have a lot to say then

what
i thought your answers were fine and didn't continue to engage with them bc i thought they were fine and i didn't have anything further to say
i then voted elsewhere bc i thought you had been fine since then
i don't particularly scumread you anymore but i don't really understand the townreads either. you seem solidly in range of both alignments to me. there's some stuff that feels genuine, and some stuff that feels off

so i've "been fine"
but some stuff "feels off"
that you still haven't engaged on
ok imma leave this for now this is getting nowhere lmao

Hammer Ircher!

am happy to soon, we have plenty of time and i don't think this is the type of slot that's going to talk their way out of the wagon shifting elsewhere, given what we've seen so far from Ircher's posting

are you in a hurry for some reason?

these reads feel kinda convenient

(This was to furtive, so Uncrowned was calling furtive's reads convenient.)

I'm not submitting a gamesolve here, I'm trying to flag up scummy players that are being ignored.

yeah but that just seems like town signalling (idk if that's the right phrase for it) instead of just, pushing the slots?

green flip would have me looking in {Mastina, Andre, Kilck, Mala, Ydrasse} with preference being: Mala, Andre, Mastina, Ydrasse, Klick

red flip would have me looking in (Luke, Fire} with preference being Luke

i am unsure of where i stand on furtive, ausuka, yourself, jjh

What are we doing? Voting fires?
VOTE: firez

i guess so
VOTE: Fire

Secondly, I have felt for many moons that Malakittens is not town. Could it be Mala/Uncrowned?
I'll backstab Uncrowned after townreading him all game, because Andres wants it and I'd like to see some momentum on a non F name. Don't get me wrong, Dannflor is still suspicious.
VOTE: Uncrowned

ooo interesting

My final guess for mafia is [Malakittens, Uncrowned].

when did you start to feel this way about me bby

furtive does deserve to die tho for betraying me ngl now that I think about it

Unfortunately, none of these hard-remove any scumteam with Uncrowned. However, softly, these indicate less-likely scum with furtive, fire, and maybe Klick. Not enough to be removed, but enough to be knocked down into "less likely".

{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}

{furtive, Uncrowned}

(reduced probability by interaction with furtive)
{Klick, fire}
{Klick, Andres}

{Klick, Uncrowned}

(potentially reduced probability due to interaction, but not certain thanks to no follow-through)
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:
{fire, Andres}

{fire, Uncrowned}

(reduced probability by interaction with fire)
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick + Uncrowned-jjh interaction, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)

VOTE: uncrowned

my understanding is you have experience with uncrowned, is your feeling there based on knowing them?
i am not feeling the good vibes

my understanding is you have experience with uncrowned, is your feeling there based on knowing them?
i am not feeling the good vibes

VOTE: uncrowned

interesting choice for a vanity considering it's on the one guy that called you out
out of interest, do these vibes also apply to furtive? if not, why?

didn't really feel like you had an actual interest in sorting me, felt like you were just checking a box on a list of things you're supposed to be doing in a mafia game. feels a little artificial
which is kinda how ive felt about a lot of your posting so far. it kinda reminds me of how i like to play scum actually, which maybe is why i noticed. it feels like you're playing with the goal of generating townreads on yourself and not with the goal of finding scum
does not apply to furtive, furtive seems towny

from like, a fear of being elimmed perspective? no.
from a "there's probably at least one scum on here" yeah I think so?

granted the activity level of the entire wagon is low but i doubt it's just all town chillin on there
i think andre is good out of them, everyone else im null to SLing on

this seems like a really weird thing for you to fixate on
why would there specifically be scum on the ydra wagon
what spawned this thought for you

having looked at uncrowned's scumplay i don't really get why this is clearly town but i do kinda feel similar vibes from the town games as well, so idk maybe im wrong

i don't get why you question me, gets answers, ignore them, and then shift your vote from me to titus after ydrasse unvotes me
it's like you want to engage but then when you actually receive answers, you just go to something else while still throwing shade, like keeping your options open?
"idk why people think uncrowned is town because ive looked at his scumplay, but it also looks like his townplay" or whatever. it's just constant hedging and has been a theme of your play this game. your actual solidified reads are few and far between and it seems like you're leaving doors open to keep your play flexible, something i'd attribute much more as +scum. maybe it's the low confidence thing you're talking about, but this seems awfully non-committal

what
i thought your answers were fine and didn't continue to engage with them bc i thought they were fine and i didn't have anything further to say
i then voted elsewhere bc i thought you had been fine since then
i don't particularly scumread you anymore but i don't really understand the townreads either. you seem solidly in range of both alignments to me. there's some stuff that feels genuine, and some stuff that feels off
so... ??
i don't get what the issue is here. why is it weird that i unvoted you after not engaging with your answers? are you saying that you would have found it less weird if i continued voting you after not engaging with your answers? bc i don't believe that

it kinda seems like her thoughts are surface level intended to sound reasonable tho? like she hasn't said anything super out there it's just that they don't feel like they quite click into a consistent mindset, like luke was saying

it's like you see opportunities to make comments but then not provided much follow up? like the titus vote in general doesn't feel super convincing
also, couldn't we apply this same logic to you? what makes your two slots different? up until your vote on her, you had very little to say about her so what changed? from what i'm aware of, her main string of posting had already occurred before your vote on me, and you didn't have a lot to say then

i was responding to a specific meta point that someone made, idk why it would apply to me
i had thought about her a bit previously but it wasn't my focus
i just am really confused what you're getting at with these posts and it's hard not to view them as very reach-y. i don't understand the issues that you seem to be having with my play

so i've "been fine"
but some stuff "feels off"
that you still haven't engaged on
ok imma leave this for now this is getting nowhere lmao

yes, i do not engage with everyone about every point that i think feels off
sometimes i think it would be useful to do so, like if i could try to better understand a thought process or clarify a point or if i think asking about it could help me sort them in some way or if i want to pressure or if i want other people to look at the things im pointing out
sometimes none of those really apply
i don't think that me telling you that my gut reaction to some of your posts is that you're forcing your points a little bit and everything feels kinda... appeal-y? is going to be useful
id rather just let you do your thing for now and watch and see if i still feel that way after more things have happened

I need to heavily reconsider fireisredsir as potential scum, I think.

I think I can see how he developed into a townread for me naturally in a way that made me not want to reconsider. But I've started on his ISO and not only does it not read as towny in the way I originally hard townread him early, but he explicitly says in 391 that he thinks the same way I do in terms of what is AI/what he'd normally do as scum. My most used sorting tool is 'what does this person want to achieve with their posts, is their primary goal getting townread or some other goal more closely aligning with a town win condition'. And fire reveals there that he plays at a level where he'd be aware and able to mask his intentions adequately enough to produce a natural townread from me as scum.

I'll keep reading when I get a moment tomorrow (need to sleep now), but that's where I'm expecting to vote. Dannflor doesn't feel like a correct scumread. Ydrasse has S_S in the correct category. I think jjh actually has a pretty decent chance of being scum, but not with like actual confidence, and I'd like to hear more details about mastina's townread there and see if it's translatable at all to reasoning I'd agree with.

But so far with a game's worth of context on fire's play, I'm not seeing town at all on an altogether read-through of the slot like I did when just reading the game as it happened.

i don't really get this, it seems like... super shallow reasoning? what about my play this game looks like it was meant to generate townreads?

like, your core point here is that me suspecting someone for looking like they're playing to get townread (and comparing it to how i play scum) made you think i was capable of doing that

do you... just have a baseline assumption that people in general aren't?

idk it just seems like a kinda opportunistic reassessment and i don't really believe that this only occurred to you now

ok dumping some reread notes, first up, looking over klick im not really sure why i had been townreading there

maybe i got pocketed by the early townread on me idk

started out a bit awk with 114, not really sure why that's something they care about

in general i think the progression of the readlists looked towny to me but is p easy to fake especially when they aren't giving a lot of reasons for their reads. makes it look like they're sitting back and quietly solving the game but there isn't really much evidence of that actually happening

oh ok i remember more of why i was townreading now, i liked 694 as a response at the time. i still kinda do but i also still don't really love the original post that i was questioning anyway. idk

reading their more recent posts i think they just come across as exceptionally reasonable to me, and it tends to be very hard for me to find those types of players as scum. the seeming lack of re-evaluation after roden and titus flip through 2079 to 2764 is actually kinda really concerning. those lists are very similar despite the strongest scumread and one of the townreads in the first one being revealed as wrong. and especially the lack of re-eval on SS feels like they are trying to maintain a poe while not thinking that critically about the game

ok i thought 384 from rce was p bad and then uncrowned shows up in 384 and calls it goated posting hmmmm
469 felt like such a weird line to go down at the time, and looking back now it easily could have been an attempt to pivot things away from ircher, right when ircher first returned to the thread which is when scum might have thought they had a chance to go somewhere else
574 also kinda a weird blanket discredit of the ircher wagon
since d1 he had the slightly overaggressive push on roden and then has mostly disappeared
i don't feel very strongly about this tbh, i think maybe part of me wants to believe that my early vibe read was correct and he's scum, but i only see a couple things that feel like they could have scum motivation (the push away from ircher as soon as he returns to thread, and hard pushing the roden wagon d2). his lack of feeling a need to influence gamestate lately could just be town ig, dunno

i thought about voting klick but the more i think about it the more i think i want to go here for now
VOTE: andres
gn

@fire I’m not really going to defend not voting for Ircher. But I’m not sure I get what Scum agenda I’m supposedly pushing. In any case, being wrong doesn’t mean anything, but I can’t fault you for being suspicious I guess. You are, however, way off, and I really wouldn’t play like this as Scum.

its not really just about not voting for ircher. there's a lot of places where it just feels like you're positioned right where, looking back, it seems useful for scum to be. i can go into more detail later if you want
and there's not a lot that really feels like it makes more sense coming from town that i see
what do you mean by you wouldn't play like this as scum? what do you think you've done this game thats different from your scum game?

There's a lot more to the Andres push from fire as well.

fire's interactions may or may not clear him from teams--if I had more time I would more properly investigate these.
However, I would say {fire, Klick} and {fire, Andres} are both far less likely at the least, maybe even eliminated entirely.
{fire, Uncrowned} is made less likely from the fire side.

Remaining both-on combos:
{furtive, Klick}
{Klick, PenguinPower}.

The remaining 50/50 combos:
{furtive, fire}
{furtive, Andres}

{furtive, Uncrowned}

(reduced probability by interaction with furtive)
{Klick, Andres}

{Klick, Uncrowned}

(potentially reduced probability due to interaction, but not certain thanks to no follow-through)
{Klick, jjh}
{PenguinPower, Andres}
{PenguinPower, Uncrowned}
{PenguinPower, jjh}.

both-remaining-scum-off combos are:

{fire, Uncrowned}

(reduced probability by interaction with fire + fire interaction with Uncrowned)
{fire, jjh}
{Andres, jjh}

{Uncrowned, jjh}

(reduced probability by inference of jjh soft-protecting Klick + Uncrowned-jjh interaction, but not nearly as much as anti-furtive associates)

[mastina]

contrary to my dead thread whining mastina had fire and furtive nailed

Making that even better is that just like you and Lukewarm before me, I probably died at the exact right moment to be valuable to the town.

You would've been less accurate past D1 if you lived;
Lukewarm would've been less accurate past D3 if he lived;
I would've been less accurate past D4 if I lived.

I died at the exact moment which was most useful to the town as my death helped to condemn both of the remaining nontown players, even tho only one of them actually did the deed.

I was expecting a fire + furtive scumteam, so with Mala having flipped scum, I would've erroneously believed only 1/2 of them

at maximum

would've been scum. I would've lacked the Vital Information necessary to realize I got both right, albeit for wrong reasons. So I was more valuable to the town dead there than alive, as my death helped paint them both as scum whereas had I lived I'd have erroneously pivoted away from at least one of them (maybe both, hard to say).

[mastina]

Btw I made a couple of nominations here.