Datisi's Café [game over!]

[Something_Smart]

this is not a mod note.

[Something_Smart]

Checking on something, then I have a comment about the setup.

For now I can at least say: your PR is less valuable than you think it is, unless it can 100% confirm someone as town. Do not rush to use it.

I will begrudgingly accept what mastina is doing, because she is quite good at mechanics. But she'd better explain it eventually.

[Something_Smart]

By announcing mastina intends to act, she starts off a tradegy of the commons. A tradegy of the commons is basically a situation where individually people benefit from taking a common good and suffer no penalty for doing so. When people see someone taking a common good, they take theirs. Eventually everyone does and the common good starts to die. So I have a problem with this.

That's why I said what I did. Mastina is possibly not telling the truth about working 0% and if she is she has at least a reasonably concrete benefit in mind. (Not to speculate too much, but perhaps she has a power that requires exactly 100% and unlocks some permanent ability.) For most people, there should be no good reason to work 0%, or even 60%. If you're something like 40% for a motion detector, nobody really cares, at least not right now.

This setup doesn't quite work as a tragedy of the commons because it is simultaneous; most people are not going to announce their productivity because it alerts scum to who the strong PR's are. (Again, this is what makes me think mastina has a specific plan, because if she's just like a cop or something she's just asking to be shot.) It's also not a tragedy of the commons because we're all on the same team (we being the townies, since scum don't impact productivity), so anything bad for one of us is definitionally bad for all of us.

[Something_Smart]

Also, I did confirm with the mod that there is guaranteed to be at least one VT in the game. I assume there is also more than one VT in the game, and guessing the ratio of PR to VT is probably pretty important. I was estimating somewhere around 2:1 to 1:1-- having too many VT's makes it trivially easy to keep productivity up. Since we need to average at least 75%, if we assume 2:1 PR:VT, the PR's would need to average around 62%, which honestly isn't bad.

The tricky thing is that hitting way too high is also pretty devastating for town because we lose a lot of power. So we should probably aim for no higher than 85%, which would require a PR average of 78%.

So my (almost) completely uninformed take is that most PR's should be producing between 62-78%. Since mastina is committed to 0 and is probably roughly 10% of town's PR's, shift that up 10% for today, so 68-86%.

[Something_Smart]

Ooh yeah, having MB here would be neat. We'd just talk so much math that all the scum would quit so they didn't have to listen to it.

[Something_Smart]

Does the ratio of town/mafia not matter then?

It only matters for estimating how many townies there are. Mafia don't impact productivity.

Also, what if I'm a super important PR (Power Role) that needs to use at least 100% every night?

I can't imagine what kind of PR would

need

to use 100% every night. If your role can singlehandedly outweigh scum getting an extra kill, then by all means go for it (but it probably can't-- maybe if it was like a disloyal vig or something), otherwise I would say try to hang toward the lower end of my range (if you need to get to 100% in two nights, you can maybe push it and do like 57% today and 43% tomorrow or something).

I guess as a consequence of these types of roles maybe existing, I would encourage people to go to the higher end if their role is not that valuable, or is not valuable early. Stuff like protective roles are much less valuable early in a large game, as are roles that care about the scum making the kill (tracker, JK, etc).

[Something_Smart]

yo S_S where's your wagon analysis you got asked for it earlier

since when am I known for wagon analysis and also when did this happen

[Something_Smart]

where did I get asked for it? I don't have any wagon analysis besides, it's RVS.

[Something_Smart]

@Something_Smart

oh, I did miss that, but that's not asking for wagon analysis, just reads on particular people.

Ydrasse slightly town, Ausuka null, Ircher null, mastina slightly scum.

[Something_Smart]

go on

That was before I saw the Ircher slip stuff. Checking Ircher's history I don't see him having played in a 17:4 game lately, so slight +scum for that. Ydrasse tiredposting is slightly +town as it's easier to do something dumb as scum when you're tired. (Same principle behind drunkposting being +town.) Mastina's antics seem mostly typical of her towngame, and extremely typical of her scumgame, so all else being equal she's a little more likely to be scum. (I'm still going to let her do her thing though.)

[Something_Smart]

Surely town has a lot of power, right? Otherwise it would be trivial to get 75% or more productivity.

[Something_Smart]

Sure, but bad PR's can just not use any. So there has to be some stuff that would at least be tempting to people.

[Something_Smart]

the relationship does not scale linearly...

What relationship? There's a sweet spot for player enjoyment that usually sits around 25% of the game being scum. Too high and it feels like town has no control, too low and it can feel hard to find scum. I don't see why that wouldn't be linear.

[Something_Smart]

The extra mechanic is not pro-scum. It limits the usability of town PR's, but in a way that's entirely in town's control.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not opposed to flipping Ircher here but I'd like it acknowledged that a town flip means that scum was most likely to saw them slipping first...Because their perspective allowed them to.

This assumes that there really are 5 scum, then? Otherwise how would scum be more likely notice the mistake?

[Something_Smart]

I, for one, love that Datisi posts a regular accounting of everyone's productivity usage.

I mean, if we wanted to do that, we could. We probably will at some point. But even if we don't, all the actions that matter are taken by town.

[Something_Smart]

by individual town not the collective town

Differing design philosophies, I guess. I tend to assume that collective town will have access to the information of individual town when balancing, because otherwise it's just impossible to predict what people will do. Obviously for a setup like this you can't assume that town will completely coordinate productivity, but you can probably assume that town will make some collective effort to keep average productivity in the 75-85% range.

Regardless, it's not like scum can force extra kills, or even really influence their ability to get them in any way. All they can do is just hope town messes up, I guess.

[Something_Smart]

I don't give a rat's ass about 5 scum or 4 scum.

Well, if it's 5 scum then Ircher's town equity goes way up.

[Something_Smart]

you can probably assume that town will make some collective effort to keep average productivity in the 75-85% range.

I don't think this is a safe assumption!

would love to be wrong though

Well, I'm doing my best. If you're really interested in that, we could have a conversation about optimal productivity play and then try to get as many people to sign off on it as possible.

[Something_Smart]

How? He's just as frozen...

He made a post that implicitly assumed 4 scum. Don't you think he wouldn't do that if he were on a 5-person scumteam?

[Something_Smart]

Could be. IIoA doesn't have to be true. The argument is pedantic though as we can't find out exactly how many scum there are until much later

I guess. But it seems like it probably didn't occur to Ircher that it's not known how many scum there are. So if that didn't occur to him, and he

did

know how many scum there were, he would have to use the correct number. The only time he would use the wrong number is if he were deliberately trying to appear like he didn't know how many scum there were, but I don't see why he would do that because it could still look like a scumslip.

I think the discussion is worthwhile because it's about probability. If we agree there are probably 5 scum, that makes Ircher look a lot better than if we agree there are probably 4. Though, I would buy that it's outstayed its welcome.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think I'm doing mental gymnastics when I say that I originally assumed 16/5, but now that Ircher assumed 17/4 without acknowledging that they were assuming that, I am now considering a 4-player mafia team with Ircher as one of those.

No, that's reasonable. I don't want to say too much before Ircher gets a chance to respond, but I think this is a plausible scenario, if not super likely.

[Something_Smart]

Deal.

VOTE: petapan

[Something_Smart]

sorry - is your pfp riku?

I don't know what it is but I will never not see it as Omanyte out of the corner of my eye.

[Something_Smart]

This looks like town!Titus to me

It does. I don't remember much about scum-Titus but I think she makes a bit more of an effort to sound reasonable/make sense?

[Something_Smart]

Rule of 3 doesn't mean that someone mentioning 3 people is more likely scum. It just means that if scum do mention 3 people, it's more likely to include exactly one partner.

[Something_Smart]

Also it's a statistical "rule" that I don't think ever held any meaningful basis, and many scum players who are aware of it have been known to purposefully violate it anyway because it throws people off who follow it religiously

I think it does have a basis in psychology. If you tell someone to come up with 50 random coinflip results, most people will have too few long streaks of one result, because outliers like that don't feel as "random". Similarly, if scum pick a "random" group of 3 people, they're more likely to mix in alignments proportionally than if it were actually random.

But yes, it doesn't work on people who are aware of it, and it is easy to manipulate. (I've done so as scum plenty of times.)

[Something_Smart]

jjh makes me feel like I have no purpose in this game

[Something_Smart]

Ircher, please pick a productive line of thought instead of whatever this mastina shade is.

[Something_Smart]

There's a reason this pinged me originally and it's because mastina absolutely is willing to claim things early if she feels they're close to the truth of her situation as scum

Scum don't have % tho

[Something_Smart]

If S_S is who I think it is, they could be eligible for that spot.

Huh?

[Something_Smart]

I am not; I've never played on MU. What was the "spot" you were referring to?

[Something_Smart]

Wit that said, Ircher is the type of scum that’s willing to take a bullet for a partner. So I don’t think Titus’ argument that Irchers wagon sprung up to divert from someone else is merit-less.

You think Ircher deliberately baited a wagon on himself? How?

[Something_Smart]

Ircher's wagon rose while he was afk, though. What exactly backfired?

[Something_Smart]

I don’t agree that it makes you/SS 1 or 2 scum. Though I do think there is scum between you.

What ties us together?

[Something_Smart]

Okay, that's reasonable. Just wanted to make sure it wasn't related to Titus's nonsense theory about Ircher's wagon distracting from me.

[Something_Smart]

Good, now all the PR's are dead, so we can stop giving scum extra kills.

[Something_Smart]

I was gonna vote peta though so I guess I can't be that mad.

[Something_Smart]

i really would hope that nobody would spend enough productivity points to n1 hero shot vig but i also wouldn't be that surprised

Especially when it wouldn't even confirm them as town.

[Something_Smart]

I was gonna vote peta though so I guess I can't be that mad.

Why

Peta made a post about wanting to hammer Ircher but wanting to give people more of a chance to talk first, which felt performative and hollow given that he hammered after jjh explicitly requested more time.

[Something_Smart]

Btw there's actually TWO reasons for why I think that this is a scumclaim from Roden, maybe 3.

It's independently a pretty sketchy claim. But do you think scum would have Ircher's role and that?

[Something_Smart]

...you really want me to scum read you don't you.

If you really want to do it, I won't stand in the way of your dreams.

[Something_Smart]

Explicitly so, yes, for multiple reasons.

Share with the class?

[Something_Smart]

-General setup design. Don't assume scum won't have two roles of similar nature or sometimes you will be wrong.
-A traffic analyst flipped. A percentage of scum having communication built into their actual role makes the guilties there more deniable, and makes the TA be more of an inno-hunting role.

TA's fair. For the first point, I know it's not impossible, but I have to imagine that they are less likely than random to both be scum.

[Something_Smart]

I think it would be really funny if peta banked 70%, drawing the average under 75%, and scum used their second kill that they otherwise wouldn't have used on him.

Presumably the role was not meant to fire every night.

[Something_Smart]

-

Really, the scum power is just their base kill. The extra kills serve to limit town power.

[Something_Smart]

like it's grating on me now - base psychology is going to have town using their power because people at heart are not logical.

Some of them are.

[Something_Smart]

Also, you need to balance for town playing optimally, no? Like sure maybe in a normal game a 1-shot doc will go for a hero save N1. But you don't balance around that; you balance around them protecting the claimed cop. Similarly, town can throw by all working 0%, but then they deserve to lose. The game should be balanced if town plays smart.

[Something_Smart]

Sure, but we're talking about balance. So if you're wondering "where's the scum power", I think the answer isn't "extra kills", because the game should be balanced if town plays smart enough to not give away extra kills.

[Something_Smart]

Side note, there is almost no way what mastina is saying is correct. It's starting to lean more and more scum, though there is still a good chance town-mastina believes she broke the game.

[Something_Smart]

That's a weird assumption. This game already has a central special mechanic that's public. Why have more but not make them also public?

[Something_Smart]

Scum power through roles is a constant throughout the game. They don't have a productivity mechanic to deal with. Whereas for town, you get diminishing returns- fewer people to cover for lowered productivity, and increasing costs in a lot of cases. Scum should be expected to be fairly low power in terms of roles as a result

Well, scum could just have limited-shot roles. But I agree with the logic here. (Though, if a lot of PR's die, it opens up others to act more, which is cool.)

[Something_Smart]

960 and furtive's posts on the next few pages read like town interrogating a suspect, not scum looking to create interactions with a partner who is almost certainly going down.

[Something_Smart]

What do you mean by 'red check' in this post?

A guilty result, I think.

[Something_Smart]

I think he's been consistently scummy and isn't quite sure what to do in the current gamestate other than possibly eatch town implode

That's what my towngame looks like, lol.

How have I been scummy?

[Something_Smart]

I'm totally fine with hearing Roden fullclaim.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not a Titus-scum expert, but I know she busses more than she did back in the day. Iirc, when she does it's generally in a heavy-handed way that isn't wholly incompatible with how she treated Ircher.

[Something_Smart]

-A traffic analyst flipped. A percentage of scum having communication built into their actual role makes the guilties there more deniable, and makes the TA be more of an inno-hunting role.

Worth noting, I don't think Ircher's role would actually show up guilty to a TA, because it's not private communication. I've asked Datisi.

[Something_Smart]

Worth noting, I don't think Ircher's role would actually show up guilty to a TA, because it's not private communication. I've asked Datisi.

Confirmed that I was right about this.

[Something_Smart]

This is sus

Why

[Something_Smart]

It's talking about a nightkill in a conversational way, and the obvious implication is that you would never nightkill Petapan because you were about to vote them. It's you giving yourself towncred and broadcasting it, like Obama with the medal.

Sure, that's why I might do it as scum. Why do you think I wouldn't be likely to do it as town? (Also, don't you think I would find that rather heavy-handed, as I voted peta yesterday but didn't actually express any scumread of him?)

[Something_Smart]

Sure, that's why I might do it as scum. Why do you think I wouldn't be likely to do it as town? (Also, don't you think I would find that rather heavy-handed, as I voted peta yesterday but didn't actually express any scumread of him?)

And actually, given how odd it is for me to vote someone at the beginning of the day, I don't think I would expect to get towncred from that. That seems like it would have been a correct expectation, because nobody has called it towny and you've called it directly scummy. It would be a poor and facile attempt at towncred, and my towncred grabs are usually a lot more layered than that.

[Something_Smart]

But neither of these things indicate that you're town more than being mafia.

Well, I think the second post that I made argues that that post is actually town-indicative for me, but you'd have to know me very well to believe it so I wouldn't expect you to. I was at least just trying to understand the reasoning to see if I could change your mind about it being scum-indicative.

Why do you keep lowering the bar for yourself by saying your towngame is super neutral and pedestrian?

Well, I wouldn't say that's what 205 is-- there was a post that I thought implied that I was especially known for wagon analysis. I can do it, sure, but I'm not an expert at it or anything. 1212 is just the truth, lol. My towngame is pretty neutral and pedestrian.

[Something_Smart]

Talk more about
1) your read on Mastina

I've seen mastina abuse/take control of mechanics as scum before. There is a very low chance she's actually broken the game, and if she's town what she's doing has significant downside and I'm dubious that Datisi would have put something in that gives her that much upside without the risk of being killed. (Since she presumably wouldn't announce this if scum could just kill her to stop whatever it is.) Plus, her read on me feels like TMI, since she clearly thinks she knows something about my role and I don't see how she can be that confident about it (even if she is right).

2) Scumpool/likely vote destination today

Not voting, probably. But I guess I can sort the players into "probably would vote" and "probably wouldn't vote".
Probably would vote: Ausuka, Malakittens, Roden, Uncrowned, Andresvmb, RCEnigma, Klick, Ydrasse, fireisredsir
Probably wouldn't vote: PenguinPower, Lukewarm, furtiveglance, Titus, Vivax, mastina, jjh927

[Something_Smart]

I think that Mastina is actually always scum here, but I also don't think that anyone is going to consider voting her prior to her finishing her day 4 schtick

I'll consider it, but I probably won't do it. But I'd definitely vote her on day 4.

[Something_Smart]

how do you say all this just to put her in your probably wouldn't vote section

Because if she's town it's really silly to have allowed her to grant scum an extra kill but not allow her to do anything with it.

[Something_Smart]

Yep, I'm super afraid of making decisions.

Why's it disastrous? You think we might lose before D4?

[Something_Smart]

not that we'd lose, but that it would cause a difficult situation if scum!mastina was a thing

like say d4 or d5 hits and we aren't seeing any of the stuff mastina has spoken about as being part of her role, what's your course of action? are you leading the charge on that? if you already think she's +scum, you're basically letting her go unpressured for multiple days. if she's a scum PR that becomes even worse

i'd suppose it's not a huge deal considering this is a large (outside of the multi-kill stuff) but i feel like from your perspective it's weird you wouldn't even really prod in that direction at all, outside of some shading here and there. is town!you really happy to just vibe with her possibly leading miselims (if you think she's scum)?

i'm just not really understanding the thought process

Well, I mean yes, it is worse for her to live to D4 if she's scum compared to dying today. I'm not really going to let her pushing someone move the needle-- I'm pretty fine with the Roden wagon, but not because she said so. But I feel like it's less of a hit to town to let scum-her live to D4 (even if she's a PR) than it is to kill town-her D2, and she is more likely to be town than scum, so it's a net negative expectation.

The only part of this query that I don't really understand is the "prod" bit. What kind of "prodding" do you think I ought to be doing, and why would it be helpful?

[Something_Smart]

well, that kinda blows my whole point then

i said you seemed to think she was more likely to be scum, but you didn't refute that earlier? but if that's the case and you TL her, then what i'm saying is irrelevant

Hmm, yeah, the eternal confusion between absolute likelihood and relative likelihood.

If we assume 3 scum left, any random player has a baseline 19% chance to be scum. If I think mastina has a, say, 35% chance to be scum, that's significantly above baseline, but she still has a 65% chance to be town.

[Something_Smart]

Kinda annoyed that you didn't even think to question if you were misunderstanding me and just assumed that I'm such an absymal scum player I can't keep my fake reads straight. But I mean, I guess I should have just clarified that when I said it.

[Something_Smart]

I just want to murder anyone who starts posting about numbers and percentages again

I know. And yet I'm still doing it.

[Something_Smart]

Because, I mean, telling me not to talk about probability is like telling someone to not talk about reads. Because all reads are probability.

[Something_Smart]

Probably would vote: Ausuka, Malakittens, Roden, Uncrowned, Andresvmb, RCEnigma, Klick, Ydrasse, fireisredsir
Probably wouldn't vote: PenguinPower, Lukewarm, furtiveglance, Titus, Vivax, mastina, jjh927

Basically just this where the first list is null and the second list is townlean, with Ydrasse and mastina moved to scumlean.

[Something_Smart]

no offense intended, I quoted those because I actually was confused and wanted a straight answer on your read

so you do SL her, cool.

Yes, I have her as a scumlean overall, but I think that killing someone who has banked 100% productivity and not used it is extremely bad, and so I don't want to risk that, even if there's a somewhat higher chance of killing scum.

[Something_Smart]

Can you explain why and when Ydrasse and mastina moved SS?

Mastina never moved, I just don't want to kill her yet. Ydrasse was one of the scumleans I got from reading interactions with the Ircher wagon overnight (peta being the other). I thought 999 was a pretty bad post especially because it was her only response to Ircher's claim. And she's just being extra useless which could be real disengagement but it could be a tactic.

How are you sure she did what she said?

Well, obviously it's predicated on her being town. But, the double kill somewhat increases the chance of town banking high productivity, and if she was lying yesterday about using 100%, I don't see what she would gain by not admitting that today, since she is clearly explaining more about her plan as the days go on.

[Something_Smart]

But for the love of all that is unholy, at least more could try to post like uncrowned, penguin and sometimes titus.

I'm definitely open to try to post in a way that's more comprehensible to people. Could you be more specific about what kind of change you're requesting?

[Something_Smart]

Great. How do you believe she didn't spend it?

Well, presumably her role doesn't do the big thing she's claiming it does until D4. The simplest interpretation is that it requires a ton of %, could just be that it requires acting in a certain way on multiple nights. So I don't know she didn't spend it, but I assume she can't yet do the big thing she's claiming she will, so it's effectively the same either way.

[Something_Smart]

You‘re right. I apologize. But artificial tone describes it to me, or lacking passion.
Guess I got triggered by being told that I got bombarded with numbers for its own sake

I wasn't offended by it, but maybe that's because I've seen a lot of impressive stuff done by AI

Still isn't especially helpful though-- I can talk about more random gut feelings I'm having, but that seems like it would be massively distracting and not help anyone read me at all.

[Something_Smart]

Is it possible we have S v S wagons and scum were trying to get my wagon to go?

If you're talking about me/Roden being SvS, your wagon predates mine, so that doesn't make any sense.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, it could be that scum-Roden was trying to push your wagon as an alternative to his own. But my wagon wouldn't factor in at all, because it sprung up out of nowhere in response to a misunderstanding.

[Something_Smart]

Why not consider she's bluffing or using her role multiple times?

I figured a bluff would only last a single day. I guess it could not, but that seems like a much more deceptive way than mastina likes to play. If her role had consistent utility then she probably wouldn't wait till D4 to reveal everything because dying N3 would be awful.

[Something_Smart]

I'd be flabbergasted if both Roden and SS were town.

Why? We're probably at a pretty low scum:town ratio. Usually scum lims D1 are followed by town going wrong a couple times and then getting demotivated.

[Something_Smart]

I think but can't prove you're coming from knowing mastina couldn't use her ability n1

How would I know that as scum?

[Something_Smart]

First, scum generally propose town are honest. Since you didn't see gamebreaking, it's not a stretch you inferred it. Second, scum get powers too. Both alignments would want to investigate her. So you could know that way. The lack of doubt and analysis is suspect.

Town also propose town are honest? Why would my belief about whether town-mastina would lie depend on my alignment?

It's true that I could be scum who investigated her, but I'm pretty much pushing the same angle as I was yesterday.

[Something_Smart]

Well honestly from that, I feel even better about following mastina on Roden

[Something_Smart]

If you already scum read Roden, then mastina being scum should probably not affect it, or vice versa.

Yeah, that's kinda how I was feeling. I feel sketchy on both of them, Uncrowned was asking if I was worried about mastina pushing mislims with the free time I want to give her, and the answer was "not really".

[Something_Smart]

Is Roden known for being uncooperative/obstinate as town?

[Something_Smart]

Is Roden known for being uncooperative/obstinate as town?

i don't really see the stubbornness as especially scummy bc ive seen roden do the "well now i am not doing it" penguin meme as town before

I am a meme?!?!

yay

Hmm. Fire, can you link that?

[Something_Smart]

I bet Roden's claim, if fake, is a mod-provided fakeclaim.

[Something_Smart]

Also, the sample role PM also has an ability that does not increase in cost. It's an ability that only does something the first time, but I imagine it was meant to demonstrate that it's possible for roles to not have scaling costs.

[Something_Smart]

Lukewarm has eroded my Titus townread somewhat. I might vote her, even though I think Roden is more likely scum, because having one dominant wagon and nothing that challenges it is usually pretty bad for the gamestate.

[Something_Smart]

You and I have read two very different games if you think Roden has been the only dominant wagon today, mate.

Roden was the only dominant wagon at the time of me writing that.

[Something_Smart]

I'd love to but you guys just aren't that interesting unfortunately!

Big mood

[Something_Smart]

Back to this, they're not giving enough for me.

VOTE: Something_Smart

Happy to talk about anything you want. I feel like a handful of slots are trying their hardest to make this game completely impossible for me to interact with, so honestly I'd appreciate something to engage with.

[Something_Smart]

This game is getting exciting, but also frustrating. I'm at a point where I think I have a broadly correct poe of Dannflor (it should be Dannflor not RC btw Datisi), Malakittens, Something Smart, maybe Titus/Ydrasse, but it's hard to get those votes going. Let's see if we can revive the S_S wagon.

VOTE: Something_Smart

I reached out to you. Do you have any interest in actually sorting me?

[Something_Smart]

I genuinely have forgotten. Is there a reason Ausuka wouldn't have been a vig shot?

[Something_Smart]

Because, I'd be surprised if Vivax didn't shoot but scum still got two kills.

[Something_Smart]

Vivax said he would not have a shot last night, but I guess he could have been lying.

I don't feel like he would have shot ausuka tho, given he was one of the people who voted Titus yesterday I would have expected his shot, if it happened, to have gone there

He said "I have to holster tonight", but it's not clear whether that was a mechanical claim or a statement of best play. If it was a mechanical claim, it was a lie (or an error).

He also expressed concern about a roleblocker, so he presumably was not being totally open about his plans. Similarly, if he feared a scum doctor, he might not have shot the most obvious target.

[Something_Smart]

My original reading was that his second shot was more then 100%, but on the flip that was wrong.

Yeah that's what I thought as well.

[Something_Smart]

I am waiting for the mod. Technically accurate. I had a conditional action to masonize mastina if no one visited her. It resolves last in nar.

Flavor?

[Something_Smart]

I crumbed her as my target.

Why would you crumb a target for that role

[Something_Smart]

And what is your flavor Titus

[Something_Smart]

We should wait to see if mastina confirms before we do anything.

[Something_Smart]

In case I died. I am loyal.

so what would stop mastina from claiming it succeeded if you died

[Something_Smart]

I think she is claiming it succeeded. We should wait for mastina to confirm/deny.

[Something_Smart]

@mastina did you get added to a PT by Titus y/n

[Something_Smart]

Also claim your damn flavor

[Something_Smart]

@mastina did you get added to a PT by Titus y/n

[Something_Smart]

Did Datisi confirm to you that your action succeeded or failed?

[Something_Smart]

PM him right now and ask if he can tell you if the action succeeded or not, even if he can't make the PT right away.

[Something_Smart]

If he's on mobile I can see him having trouble adding to PT's right away, even if he can answer questions. But he should be able to tell Titus the action succeeded.

[Something_Smart]

Did Datisi confirm to you that your action succeeded or failed?

Datisi can't tell me that. I only see the PT or not. When I see the next PT, I'll know if it passed or failed by then. If no PT, failed.

Ask him anyway

[Something_Smart]

No. I could have "succeeded" but no pt be made because of my conditions. Datisi cannot tell me.

Oh I was assuming that would be considered failure. Ask him if he's going to make you a PT, he should be able to tell you that at least.

[Something_Smart]

mastina, you can claim more about your role now.

[Something_Smart]

You visited her. So I can't be up to locktown because you did. Still, I'd bet the farm.

lmaoo

[Something_Smart]

Also claim your damn flavor

Not until after I see fireisredsir fullclaim.

That was aimed at Titus, but I'd like to hear yours too. Fire did fullclaim.

[Something_Smart]

scum had no reason to roleblock me

who would you have expected them to roleblock?

[Something_Smart]

I could've done 25% on both days, but I figured that 100% into 50% made for a better support of the D4 reveal lie that I was planning. (From the moment I understood the mechanic, I put the "claim that I'll claim on D4" plan into place, but I DO have some--very subtle--crumbs in my iso which tell you that the true reveal was on D3.)

Well, in retrospect the biggest tell is that if your role really took 175% then you didn't need to wait until N3 to use it.

[Something_Smart]

It may look like there's an obvious solution but I'm gonna go against the grain again and say that literally every claim that has been made could theoretically coexist and all be town

This is true, but it would require town-Titus to fumble her role very hard.

Ideally Titus just flips RB and then we can kill fire afterward.

[Something_Smart]

for why

incredibly convenient claim, if they know mastina was RB'd and thus technically didn't take any action.

[Something_Smart]

mastina is the one who altered her claim after hearing my results

That's why I said if Titus flips RB, because it lends a lot more credence to mastina's claim, and Titus claimed to visit her.

[Something_Smart]

Fire, did you expect town-mastina to take an action N1 and/or N2? Also, did you soft your N1 result anywhere?

[Something_Smart]

also i guess i should say that i don't really trust mastina at all, not super interested in sheeping reads there

roden seems alright so far. the claim has a couple weird things about it but i think that it could come from town. i don't really want to get into that discussion too much yet due to reasons, but the play outside of that seems maybe a little scummy

ig the main reason i don't want to vote there is bc of mastina, but maybe that's dumb, idk

is this really a post made by someone who just got a result indicating mastina is more likely to be telling the truth?

[Something_Smart]

thats not how i interpreted the result. i didn't trust her before i checked and i didn't trust her after either. the result was reasonable if she was town but it didn't really change my view at all

so you assumed the scumteam was mostly goons? or what

[Something_Smart]

well they'd need another goon to be carrying out the kill b/c no multitasking

[Something_Smart]

Kills, I should say. Did you expect that scum would have made both kills with the same member, or one with each?

[Something_Smart]

Why would the scum roleblock me?

In case you had an action?

I mean you obviously didn't have one 175% action, because you wouldn't have needed to wait until N3. So I think it's not that weird for scum to try to interfere with whatever you were doing?

[Something_Smart]

I, for one, assumed that you had to do multiple things that had some powerful effect when combined. That seems like the most natural way to read your initial claim.

[Something_Smart]

The town is balanced to an effectively-all-vanilla scumteam. The town is too weak to have the scum have anything ungated like a full roleblocker, full rolecop, etc. So anything they have is going to be incredibly gated--a 1x roleblocker, or a role that isn't able to directly mess with the town's strength but can do so indirectly--ascetic, commuter, or rolestopper. (Keep in mind a scum rolestopper is significantly weaker than a town rolestopper, the same way a town roleblocker is significantly weaker than a scum roleblocker.)

how do you know how much total power town has?

[Something_Smart]

Plus, her read on me feels like TMI, since she clearly thinks she knows something about my role and I don't see how she can be that confident about it (even if she is right).

For the exact same reason I know jjh is town and knew Ircher was scum and know Roden is scum.

So, yes, it is a form of TMI, but in this case originating from town. The town who have paid attention that are in the know, are in the know and basically are a gigantic masonry as far as I'm concerned. {Vivax, jjh, Something_Smart, PenguinPower} is a pool which never contains scum if I'm right, here.

jjh probably knows what I know. He may or may not agree, mind you, but he probably sees what I am seeing at least.

You and PenguinPower, if I am right, might be able to figure it out, too. But obviously, the less said, the better, because I don't want to give anything away which would let scum infiltrate the holy masonry.

mastina can you explain this yet? especially since you were wrong about Roden

[Something_Smart]

oh man do you know how mad I would be

[Something_Smart]

fire didn't claim tracker though...?

[Something_Smart]

Primarily this one that I didn't immediately notice

oh apparently I was the only one who saw that immediately and kept quiet to see if there would be any interesting reactions.

Do you think it's within Ydrasse's scum range to fake that slip?

[Something_Smart]

No i’m dumb and can only try to fake pt slips :p

Lmao fair. But I put you up to that.

And you didn't even do a good job

[Something_Smart]

I mean I think it's possible scum could miss that too ?

Miss what? That their roles don't cost %?

[Something_Smart]

yeah sorry mastina, you've gone back to not making sense.

[Something_Smart]

Oh do you really want me to?

If you insist.

You're scum or a PR, period.

There's no way you're a VT in this game and if you claim VT I'm instavoting you.

I mean. I suspected that you thought this but I was hoping it wasn't the only thing here. How does that tie in to Roden or jjh? And how is that something that I "might be able to figure out"?

(You are free to not answer if you think the answer is detrimental to the town.)

[Something_Smart]

I would like to claim now that my role is confirmable but thus far I have used it to target Ausuka on N2 and Lukewarm N3 and this is incredibly frustrating to me

Should have used it on me.

[Something_Smart]

I need to heavily reconsider fireisredsir as potential scum, I think.

Why did you have him as town originally?

[Something_Smart]

Fire I guess? They had many ways to make their claim believable and took none of them.

[Something_Smart]

The ones that come to mind are softing your result (or saying anything remotely consistent with it), and not targeting the same player two nights in a row.

[Something_Smart]

ok uh, i feel like ive covered all of these things and idk what the issue is

why would i soft? i feel like softing with this role is literally just bad play? the only benefit is making the claim more believable which would only really be something i would be thinking about as scum

what did i say that was inconsistent with my result? i think my thought process has been p clear

why is it not believable that i would target the same player twice in a row?

Why would an investigative role soft?? In case they die before they can claim? You said you assumed mastina would not act as town, but maybe act as scum. Therefore, her not acting would make her seem more town; I would have expected once you'd discovered that, you'd say something to that effect, but if anything you seemed more suspicious of her D2, and you targeted her again even though you had already gotten a +town result.

(Plus, having targeted multiple people makes it easier for your claim to be falsified, which makes it more believable if it is not.)

[Something_Smart]

i was more suspicious of her play on d2, and the result didn't seem meaningful enough to factor in.

why did you target her then if you didn't care about the result? why not target someone you could catch in a lie?

[Something_Smart]

i don't believe that you genuinely think every investigative role should be softing their results, is that really a view you hold?

I mean no, only if they think the results matter. I was just assuming that you would only use your role on someone who'd semi-claimed if you thought the result would matter.

[Something_Smart]

??????

is that a serious question

yes it's a serious question. if you don't care about the result, why target someone who'd already partially claimed? surely you're more likely to catch someone in a lie if you target someone who'd claimed nothing

[Something_Smart]

Sure, but that logic holds for everyone. If that was your intention, why did you target her specifically?

[Something_Smart]

with mastina i knew she was claiming some time soon

ok see, this is what I was looking for. This makes sense why you'd want to catch her in a lie, knowing that you'd be able to do so within a few days.

Why didn't you say *this* back when you initially claimed? You said something about "wanting to see if she was legit" which apparently was inaccurate (or at least misleading, because to me it implies that your result was actually going to tell you whether she was legit).

And, why didn't you actually wait for her to claim? Your whole plan was ruined because you claimed before she did.

[Something_Smart]

If you're town, what's going on is that you weren't very clear about your intentions for targeting her. And I misinterpreted those intentions, and then thought your play didn't line up with them.

If you're scum, you made some shit up and weren't self-consistent about it, and I'm calling you out on it.

This conversation has helped, however I do think both worlds are plausible. I guess I would like some outside opinions on whether what fire is saying now tracks with what they said back when they claimed.

[Something_Smart]

Would have been worth a try.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, that's true, but you were also saying the wrong thing-- e.g. "i thought that it was most likely that if you were telling the truth you would no-act n1 and then act either n2 or n3 or both", "the n1 result checked out". Those made it sound like you had some expectation for when she would/wouldn't act, and that her probably claiming was just an added bonus, rather than you actually not caring about the results at all until she claimed. And if you actually didn't care at all about the results until she claimed, I would have expected you to say something to the effect of "I was hoping mastina would claim before I did" when you claimed, or something to that effect.

[Something_Smart]

i see her say she has an investigative result on me. i know that's a lie. so fmpov she has already claimed and i have already caught her in a lie and so that's why i was happy to fullclaim immediately

I mean, if she's saying she has a result that you're scum, doesn't that already make her lying fypov regardless of her role?

[Something_Smart]

on the other hand, why the hell would there be a 1-shot cop in this game

[Something_Smart]

Noted. I'm bad at reading intent, that's why I asked for other opinions on whether this interpretation checks out.

[Something_Smart]

V/LA till Monday

[Something_Smart]

Sorry, I'm just getting back from V/LA. I think I'm better off not trying to lead, since it'll take me some time to get back into the game after the downtime and my V/LA, and if I'm going to remain UTR it's best to be semi-unpredictable so scum don't know whether they should kill me. (Not that I'm really fooling anyone, I'm probably not going to be NK'd because I pretty much never am.)

[Something_Smart]

At the moment I have no real preference and I have too much of a headache to look into it more. Sorry.

[Something_Smart]

I don't follow that, they wanted to talk about their role, so they did. Doesn't mean they wanted to say

everything

.

[Something_Smart]

I... think I know what's going on, but I should let Klick confirm.

[Something_Smart]

Interesting development. So yes, I will verify that Klick has a confirmable ability. It's not an alignment-confirmed ability, but it's one I'd expect to be town more often than not, all else being equal.

I'm not sure if I should answer their questions, at least not yet, because it could give something away if people decide that they should claim. I'm not categorically opposed to that happening, depending on how people are feeling about them.

I do have a question for you, Klick-- who did you target on N1?

[Something_Smart]

I also want to know fire's action and result.

[Something_Smart]

Why didn't you say that way back at 2762?

[Something_Smart]

Also, wait, I'm dumb. Assuming there's only one scum left, it's a roleblocker, and Klick is town.

[Something_Smart]

Since Scum can’t multi-task, Klick is cleared.

Unless there are multiple scum left.

[Something_Smart]

If we're massclaiming, then fire should go last right? So they can catch a potential fakeclaim?

[Something_Smart]

Sure. It also gives a glaring roadmap of which PRs to block. Awesome suggestion tbh.

I mean they already know about fire who's basically a cop.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, if fire announces a target and we tell that target not to act, wouldn't that be a cop check?

[Something_Smart]

Assuming a town slot and scum no kills….what then?

Then we do the same thing again. And if scum no-kill again, they just gave us a free mislim, so we can just eliminate that person.

[Something_Smart]

Or we could spend a couple of days no-limming and banking up productivity for shits and giggles.

[Something_Smart]

Not necessarily? They can only interfere with two people at once and they're probably not ungated.

[Something_Smart]

I mean - this also assume fire is town.

If fire is scum then any cop inno they produce is de facto accurate.

[Something_Smart]

That's why I don't think it would make sense to concentrate 90% of scum power in one role. That's bad design.

[Something_Smart]

It's not that we're assuming the scum roleblocker isn't multitasking, it's that we're assuming that the scum roleblocker doesn't also have Klick's power.

[Something_Smart]

Vanilla waiter.

[Something_Smart]

I did ask him that, because I didn't want to give away that I knew VT's existed if it wasn't public knowledge.

[Something_Smart]

If S_S is scum, me targeting him would have given him an extra kill tonight. If he's town, he is not aware of this.

Mechanically I believe it is correct to lim S_S today, although I do not think S_S is scum here.

Can't we just coordinate % so that a second kill could only come from me?

[Something_Smart]

what did you mean by this S_S

I suspected that mastina thought I was a PR based on my comment about asking Datisi about confirmed VT's. But, she should have known me well enough to not be as confident in that as she seemed to be.

[Something_Smart]

on the math, idk, could scum have a mechanic where they can bank kills or something?

Or just an unrelated extra kill. The multitasking rule is carefully worded to not imply that the productivity mechanic is the only way scum can have extra kills.

[Something_Smart]

Asked Datisi some questions. Mafia cannot impact average productivity directly. They can affect individual players' productivity, but the player would be informed if their productivity was messed with.

[Something_Smart]

S_S who do you think it is

Joe.

[Something_Smart]

worth noting that this wagon probably wouldn't be happening if mastina were alive.

[Something_Smart]

why did you think that?

[Something_Smart]

Uncrowned didn't ask about mechanics...

[Something_Smart]

I don't endgame troll as scum.

[Something_Smart]

yea but i would tend to think that as town you would care about trying to do what you can to improve town's chances to win

I mean, I didn't see an intent to hammer and there was a week left in the deadline? I don't know where you're getting this idea that I had to say something then or I would never have had a chance to say it?

[Something_Smart]

Also, what did you think 3550 was?

[Something_Smart]

I mean it doesn't matter now, nobody's going to listen to it.

[Something_Smart]

I asked who you think is scum?

and I responded in a somewhat sarcastic way that I have no idea

[Something_Smart]

Maybe just say it anyway and let's see what happens.

ok.

scum probably have a factional ability to make a second kill. I sincerely hope this ability is one-shot. Scum also very plausibly have a bullshit ability that will false clear them. This feels too easy, which means that it probably isn't.

There might be a third party, but I don't think they're responsible for the kill. Idk why a 3p would get to shoot exactly on N4. There might also just be two scum, but it doesn't seem like town has enough power for that. I don't think Datisi particularly likes traitor? But I haven't verified that.

Both trackers should out a target, which should not be the same person or each other. Provides less room for a scum in them to make a "mistake" and get away with it, and it doesn't noticeably increase scum's chances of messing up the plan since they'd have to be a multitasking rolestopper.

Klick shouldn't act.

[Something_Smart]

Also-- my message from Klick did say that if I had an action, I'd be able to take it the next night at no cost. It did not say that if I had a factional kill, I'd be able to do it twice the next night. Since the former was hypothetical, I'm not sure why I'd be told the former but not the latter, and Klick revealing the latter massively increased the chances of me getting executed when I was previously pretty townread. If it ever becomes possible for Klick to be scum, keep that in mind.

[Something_Smart]

*roleblocker...right?

You mean for this part?

it doesn't noticeably increase scum's chances of messing up the plan since they'd have to be a multitasking rolestopper.

If so, then no, because if scum is a roleblocker then they can mess you up regardless of whether they know your target. Sharing your target only hurts if they're a rolestopper.

[Something_Smart]

interesting. that's all that the message said?

Paraphrasing, it said: As a result of someone's ability, if I survive till Night 5, I can use any abilities I have without spending any %. It didn't say anything about extra kills.

[Something_Smart]

Could a non-killing 3p exist? What would happen if you targeted one?

[Something_Smart]

Also that seems to just rule out traitor if you summarized it accurately?