Choose Carefully Mafia: (Game Over)

[ribwich]

Greeting everyone. I'll let everyone know my thoughts once I get caught up.

[ribwich]

But first I'm going to go ahead and

Unvote

Looks like a lynch could happen pretty soon. I don't want my predeccesor's vote to get someone lynched without first knowing if I agree with it.

[ribwich]

I'm currently working on a post by analysis of the game. I'm writing summaries of what people have said in their posts, and on certain ones I've written my comments on them. To make it as if I were actually in the game the whole time, I'm typing my comments at the same time as when I first read it. I'm at post #70 at the moment. I'll try to get this done as quickly and efficiently as I can.

[ribwich]

This post is pretty much just to let everyone know I'm not idling. I'm getting caught up as quickly as I can and I should have something to say this weekend.

[ribwich]

Alright, first off I'm going to apologize for not delivering on the post by post analysis I had previously promised. I was working on it, but it was just taking way too long to do.

Regarding the neighbor roles, I don't think we should go too much into it. There's just too many possibilites for what could happen even with 3 groups (And I have suspicions that there could be a fourth group as well.)

1. T-T T-S1 T-S2
2. T-T T-T S1-S2
3. T-T T-T T-T
4. T-S1 T-S2 T-SK
5. T-S1 T-S2 S1-S2

There's some that are much more likely than others, but in the end it turns into a matter of outguessing the mod. Where I do think this will come in handy though is in trying to figure out which lynch method to use later on in the game. Once we have somebody that is confirmed scum, if we suspect another person in the neighbor groups, we can use the symmetry to find out what they're immune to. I don't think we should use the symmetry to find out WHO to target, but instead should use it to figure out HOW to target them.

I don't think there's anything that we can get out of the mod edits. The mod has made other mistakes in the vote count, and I think trying to analyze what caused his mistake will lead us nowhere.

I do believe Santos is scum for many of the other reasons people have brought up. There is one post he has made though that everyone else seemed to have disliked for an entirely different reason than me though.

I have been examining Riceballtail's play and I am impressed with his performance. I'm not sure whether I want to follow it or not. There is nothing ambiguous at all in his posting skills. Its either a very good scum poster, or a very careful power role. I aspire to play this way :p

Other people commented on how this looks like Santos is just trying to buddy up to Riceball, but to me it looks like subtle rolefishing. If it was rolefishing, I don't think it did a very good job, because there didn't seem to be any reactions from Riceball to imply that he has a powerrole. But it does look to me that this was Santos's intentions: To get Riceball to slip about having a power role.

As for which lynch method to use, I believe the gun would be the best option. Santos's initial vote was most likely little more than a random vote. But his vote for rope later on seemed like he was trying to trick everybody into thinking that only rope will kill scum. Of course, WIFOM is involved, but I honestly think he was not thinking that far ahead. His post to me looked like he saw pressure was being put on him, so he attempted to find whatever reason he could to get people to vote for rope.

Vote: Santos
Vote: Gun

[ribwich]

Like I said, I don't think it was a very good rolefish. But I do think that is what he was trying to do.

And yes, I know he's voting gun. However, didn't he also claim that he'll just vote for whatever the majority is on now?

[ribwich]

Speculating on a SK probably won't get us very far, but I do agree it seems unlikely in a game like this.

[ribwich]

I'd also like to hear why BM changed his votes. And why unvote the gun but not vote for rope?

[ribwich]

Getting cold feet about the stalling of the Santos wagon. Also curious to see what happens when it begins to lose more momentum.

Unvoted Gun because im no longer certain it is the right decision if Santos is scum. I cant see how Santos scum makes logical sense, given his weapon votes, unless he is just being completely random.

I can understand why you would want to unvote gun, but why didn't you vote for rope afterward?

[ribwich]

I missed it. What did Socio do?

Suggested that STD is scum, but never explained why.

[ribwich]

I don't think we should assume that this automatically made Santos town. Pretending to break the rules has the same punishment as actually breaking it.

I think I might have missed what the case against oEJo was. CarnCarn, is there a reason behind your vote other than if Santos is town there's 2/3 chance of him being scum with the T-T T-S1 T-S2 symmetry?

And I see no reason why this means oEJo would get a new neighbor....

[ribwich]

Vote: oEJo

I didn't really see anything scummy out of him, but I'm more inclined to believe that T-T T-S1 T-S2 is the most likely symmetry, and I have a feeling CarnCarn and armlx are the townie neighbors.

Also, why was Santos turned into a neutral survivor? Is it just so that he can't say he helped his side win since this pretty much helped us?

The modkill causing the person to turn into a neutral survivor rule is to prevent modkills from being anything but a punishment for the person being modkilled.

[ribwich]

Now that the mod has confirmed that Santos was town, I do agree that the fact that oEJo did not know this does make him scum.

However, it might be in our best interest to not lynch him. We know that he's scum, but we don't which side he's on. The other scum team does though. I'm thinking we might want to go after somebody else, and let the scum deal with him. That way, oEJo still gets killed, we get another shot at killing scum today, and there's one less townie that could get potentially killed at night.

[ribwich]

They have to know the role of somebody too before their kill will count. With oEJo they know exactly what his role is.

[ribwich]

Does anyone agree with me that we would be better off letting the opposing scum team deal with oEJo?

[ribwich]

That's true. I was thinking they would go after oEJo since they can guarantee a kill on him, but they probably would be more interested in PR's.

Has anyone found something to suggest which weapon he would be weak to?

[ribwich]

Another point that's fairly weak: when he was voting Santos he still had his vote on gun. If he truly believed Santos was scum, he would have voted for the weapon he was immune to since obviously they couldn't be scum partners.

It isn't a lot to go off, but unless something else comes up I'm going to go ahead and

Vote: Rope

[ribwich]

It doesn't look like anyone else is actually agreeing with Battle Mage's plan, but if it actually gets used you can count on me abandoning this game. I'm not playing a game where people purposely break the rules to win. That ruins the entire fun of mafia.

[ribwich]

It says in the role PM that the neighbor does not know the other person's alignment. The issue is whether oEJo has a different win condition in his role, since he missed it in Santos's.

That's what I meant, I just didn't word that correctly. If oEJo was town, he should have known Santos was too since the wording of the win condition should have been exact.

And yeah, I see now why leaving him alive would be a bad idea. I was overestimating how much the opposing scum teams would want to kill each other off.

[ribwich]

Either hp didn't think that all the way through, or he's trying to get suspicion onto BM. There's no way BM's plan could have been used to save a scummate. It either confirms oEJo as town and gets him modkilled, or it doesn't and we lynch him.

[ribwich]

Mod, you have hp [leaves] voting and not voting at the same time.

[ribwich]

You should be voting me because you said you would?

FoS: BM

That was under completely different circumstances when BM said that. Now we know it won't help town at all if you do that. Plus, I don't even think it's been 48 hours since then.

So, what are people's thoughts? Do you think a T-T, T-S1, T-S2 pattern is likely or is the mod more likely to make the pairings so that town would be punished for lynching along the lines of the symmetry argument? Like I said, after thinking about this a bit more, it seems just as likely that the mod would choose the latter setup as he would the former.

I very much think that there is just a good of a chance of it being some other symmetry with the intention of throwing us off like that. That's why I don't even think we should use the symmetry for voting people, only for determining which weapon to use against them if we lynch someone in the neighbor groups.

[ribwich]

Unvote: oEJo

There's a possibility that I think a lot of people if not everybody has overlooked. I want to make sure about this before commiting to a lynch.


oEJo, other than the fact that your name would be switched with his, did you have the exact same role PM as Santos?

[ribwich]

Okay, that was all I needed to hear.

Vote: oEJo

I wanted to consider the possibility that there were similar roles that were just written differently for the sake of throwing us off.

[ribwich]

Since we had already mentioned alternate symmetry that could be used for punishing us for using it, I was thinking there was a chance a similar thing was done with the role PM's. oEJo could have been a pro-town neighbor, but with his PM being written completely differently. I knew the chances were pretty slim, but I wanted to at least look at it.

However, since oEJo has said they had the exact same role, that rules out that possibility.

[ribwich]

No no no. You misunderstood me. I said it rules out the possibility of alternate role PMs being used for the same role. I still very much believe there could be alternate symmetry.

[ribwich]

First of all, do you believe oEJo is telling the truth about his role PM being the same? From everything I've read, I think you are believe this.
Second, if you do believe this, why did you choose to vote him again?
If you don't think he is telling the truth, then how are you ruling out the possibility of alternate role PMs?

No, I think he's lying scum. I worded that question like that because if my true intentions came out I knew I wouldn't get a real answer out of him. I was considering the possibility that oEJo could have gotten something like this for a role PM. "You and Santos are neighbors and can talk at night You win when all anti town roles are dead." It's the same role as what Santos and the other pro-town neighbors have, but it's worded completely differently. This would have explained why he didn't think Santos's claim was legit. I knew it was a long shot, because it probably would have came up earlier, but I wanted to at least test it.

When I asked him this, I was asking "town oEJo" if he got the same PM. If my above theory was right, he would have told me that they did get different PMs. But, since he said they had the same PM, when we already know they don't, this confirms for me that he is scum.

[ribwich]

The win condition was just part of it. I purposely made it way far off from the original PM for effect.

[ribwich]

I thought the chances were extremally small, but I have heard of mods doing this type of thing before. I just wanted to do a quick check since I was pretty sure oEJo wasn't going to be able to figure out what I was getting at when I asked him that.

[ribwich]

ribwich, why did you say earlier that you had reason to believe that there was a fourth set of neighbours? Do you really think that HALF the players would be in some sort of neighbour set?

I thought I had caught on to a breadcrumb from a player that hasn't claimed neighbor yet. But I hadn't really thought of how that would make half of the players neighbors, which doesn't seem likely, so I probably was just reading too much into it.

[ribwich]

Vote: OeJo
Vote: Gun

[ribwich]

Post 120: REACH by BM. Not sure if its atypical of him, but notable. Also the Santos reach. I wouldn’t mind a BM wagon.

I can't say anything about it, but this isn't atypical.

He then moves back to gun soon before the lynch actually happens. Possibly to try to make himself not as culpable when his buddy doesn't die.

This isn't true at all. You must have gotten something mixed up. As for your other points, I honestly thought that scum would have been more willing to attack each other at night rather than town, and I felt a weak reason for a vote was better than no reason.

[ribwich]

Liar. What is this then:

Vote: OeJo
Vote: Gun

It's a vote I made at the start of Day 2 because the first attempt to lynch him failed.

[ribwich]

*sues Kairyuu*

It's fine. I was pretty sure that was exactly what happened.

[ribwich]

I call BS. The mod did imply that a role like that could exist, but oEJo would have said something before we tried to lynch him the first time.

[ribwich]

If you have to rely on steller play from the town and poor play/luck from the scum in order to give the town a win, then the setup is unbalanced.

I think what CarnCarn is getting at is there could be a significantly larger number of power roles in this game to balance it out, which I do agree could be a possibility.

Since there was only one kill N1, I think a power role would almost have to be involved since there weren't any kills N2. Assuming the only reason one of the scum teams failed in their kill N1 was because they used the wrong method, the only thing they would need to do is switch their method for N2.

[ribwich]

I am posting this in all of my games. Due to upcoming finals I will be unable to be as active as I normally am. I will try to respond to any direct questions somebody has for me, but that will be about all I can do for about a week.