Raw, Unfiltered, UPICK Game Over !

[cassowary]

ah, glad we're getting started here

VOTE: the worst

username says it all i think. why would we want someone around who's the worst

[cassowary]

i'd prefer a nice green tea if you could, it's a bit late in the day and i don't want to be up all night

[cassowary]

Also, I'd like you thoughts on Porken when you get the chance. Maybe even a vote if you are feeling it.

Uh, I don't really see what you're seeing here, to be honest.

Re flavor claims: I do agree flavor almost certainly is not alignment-indicative, bc my flavor character doesn't match my alignment. That said, I don't really see the point of doing flavor claims except, like, for fun? It seems kind of game-irrelevant? I'm happy to flavor claim if we decide we want to do that, though.

[cassowary]

Wait... if porkens thought flavor could be AI but didn't want to claim their flavor (#40), does that imply they thought their flavor was incriminating and could reveal their alignment to be mafia? Hmm... food for thought.

[cassowary]

Also curious why Porken/Mystix were both so evasive about role claiming if they both feel its non-ai here.

I guess this is what Grendel was saying. I think it's a good point and I'm kind of curious why porkens has jumped on trying to flip the suspicion back on grendel rather than just, like... answering the question here? I mean, if you think Grendel is trying to frame you here, surely your case would be bolstered by countering his assumption about your reasoning rather than just basically going "well why didn't you vote for mistyx then" (mistyx didn't think flavor is AI at the time, so she's not as sus in this situation imo)

yeah ok, i'm down for this logic, at least for now

VOTE: porkens

[cassowary]

Yeah, that makes sense.

UNVOTE: porkens

[cassowary]

'They are doing pro-town things, but it might be scum doing it for towncred' (my verrry loose paraphrasing) feels like a pretty thin justification for a vote on someone lol

That “lol” looks forced.

lol

[cassowary]

Less flippantly: I don't find mark's behavior very scummy and I think a lot of the accusations on him look a bit like grasping. Unless, like, you know him really well and are super confident he wouldn't say 'lol' in this situation normally? I am not even convinced he appears that much to be a 'voice of reason.'

Re other thoughts, I find uncrowned's opening super weird - like, why come in that way? If you hadn't caught up on the game to have other opinions, why cast a vote in your first post when we were already kinda coming out of rvs? Feels like scum trying to imitate slacking town. I'll join the uncrowned wagon for the sake of having a vote somewhere.

VOTE: uncrowned

[cassowary]

I didn't give this tons of thought earlier, but the self-justification is mildly ++SR. It's pretty easy to string an argument together along the lines of "scum!me would have done XYZ instead"

Again, this is something that a townie can 100% do.

What is your Mafia experience like?

Are you going to give actual reasons for your SR or are you going to keep coming up with NAI stuff that you're conf!biasing into a bad read?

This logic is weird. "Thing that both town and scum can do" doesn't mean "NAI". If it's more likely as scum than town, it should push people towards a scumread, and vice versa. There are very few things that

only

town or scum can '100% do'; if there were then mafia would be a lot easier, wouldn't it?

[cassowary]

Dang, L-2. Careful with that wagon, Eugene.

[cassowary]

Lol I am a young'un, I just have been on a pink floyd kick lately.

Dang, L-2. Careful with that wagon, Eugene.

Oh man I forgot how gross this was.

"Hey guys, L-2 watch out watch out but lemme stay on the wagon."

I mean, yeah? Why would I unvote here? I don't see how it's 'gross' to note this so we don't accidentally end the day 9 days early? Maybe this is a meta difference but I really don't see the logic for pushing me based on this.

[cassowary]

Like, sorry I don't know all the meta on you, person I have never played with before, but I'm calling it as I see it... I don't really see how you're construing my comments as 'fence-sitty' when I straight up voted you. Like, I'm not going to vote you with 100% certainty of course, we're on d1 like 5 IRL days in, you might very well be town, but this accusation is just kind of bizarre to me and I'm not sure how to respond.

[cassowary]

also I never talked about meta in relation to you so idk where that's coming from

Um, I think you first brought up this meta justification in a response to me:

This logic is weird. "Thing that both town and scum can do" doesn't mean "NAI". If it's more likely as scum than town, it should push people towards a scumread, and vice versa. There are very few things that only town or scum can '100% do'; if there were then mafia would be a lot easier, wouldn't it?

Right.

But *why* is it more likely for scum to do what I'm doing than town would be? That still hasn't been answered yet.

If you even want to go into iffy self-meta territory, I could argue this as being more town indicative for me, as this is something I've done in several town games during the early game while never having done it in a scum game.

But that's surface level at best. The fact is this quite easily comes from either alignment, and this wagon being based on it is nonsense and contains at minimum 2 scum, I'd wager.

^{(emphasis mine)}

I mean sure, you called it 'iffy' here but you later went on to argue from an actual meta perspective (#276) as if you expected the people voting you to be aware of your meta and therefore could say that suspecting you for your naked vote (which... I did justify at the time as being scummy; I said "feels like scum trying to imitate slacking town") had to be disingenuous or "engaging in bad faith," which is just a ridiculous read on the situation because, well, I don't know you - why would I know how you tend to enter the game as scum vs town?

That said, I'll walk back my accusation of 'feels like scum trying to imitate slacking town' because wow that is not the vibe I am getting anymore. I certainly buy this behavior as town-motivated, even if it is ultimately misguided.

UNVOTE: uncrowned

and it's gross because you just pop in only to say that and do nothing else to progress the game, develop reads or try to do any form of solving. it reads as fake af concern to give you some easy towncred

This is fair. I was legitimately concerned though bc the last game I played on MS we had a couple days end extremely early due to quickhammer which scum claimed was miscounting votes and just a straight up troll-hammer from a townie, so I thought I'd quickly post that as I noticed it so as not to let people go 'oh, I didn't realize we were at L-1' or whatever as an excuse for quickhammering a townie.

[cassowary]

Ugh, sorry, been kind of busy irl today. I'm going to have to give the earlier part of the thread a reread.

[cassowary]

Oh, now we've got some activity.

Would love some more explanation on Greyice's reasoning for... basically anything he's said so far. I refuse to succumb to fascist intimidation :p

[cassowary]

Oh, now we've got some activity.

Would love some more explanation on Greyice's reasoning for... basically anything he's said so far. I refuse to succumb to fascist intimidation :p

To be fair Grey did provide a bare bones of reasoning.
That’s not why I scumread him.

I mean... did he? to me it kinda looks like he thought he had it figured out by page 2 (#366) and then just went "hey everyone vote fidget" without explaining, and then by way of explanation he just summarized a bunch of things she did (#374) basically without comment?

Tho looking back, I'm not a huge fan of most of fidget's arguments, tbh. Pushing mark over uncrowned after uncrowned's naked vote was an extremely weird play, and most of her votes don't look good imo. Plus a lot of meta type arguments/justifications? (#123, #126, #166). I guess I don't even necessarily disagree with most of Grey's takes lol, I just don't find this style of argument convincing at all

[cassowary]

I mean, yeah, that's my thought too re 'make an actual case'. I don't think I am super scumreading him for the 'not talking about current discussion' thing though because he kind of came in at a point where the current discussion had died down a bunch? I appreciate getting a new topic here to discuss unless you want to rehash uncrowned/mark again or whatever.

Which I guess you said you do, but I don't think either of them feel like the right elimination for today and idk if you've given that many more thoughts on them, other than you don't like the Mark wagon so you are suspecting uncrowned by, what, PoE? Why are you limiting your choices here?

I think I am going to vote Fidget. But this is an independent conclusion, not due to fascism

VOTE: Fidget

[cassowary]

If fidget is replacing out, feels bad to eliminate them today I guess.

Why are we back on uncrowned? Do you guys think uncrowned looks particularly scummy? I think uncrowned looks like another 'town who's convinced they've got it figured out when they don't' to me.

I think if we aren't going to do Fidget my preferred elim for today would be Not Known. The NK/Mark interactions earlier in the thread look pretty bad, I think. Looks like reaching to try to get town to wagon onto someone who had a few votes but might become difficult to vote out later. And the rest of their reads are... pretty ridiculous imo. I guess I'll see where they're at once they finish catching up.

I'm not really SRing jake very hard but I concur with others that if he isn't going to be helpful it would be best to policy-eliminate him early on so he doesn't become an issue later

[cassowary]

Phone posting. I'll do

VOTE: Not Known 15

for now, but as we are getting close to deadline I'm open to switching to jake or maybe math tomorrow depending on how the votes shake out. I really don't think uncrowned or grey are the right eliminations for today.

[cassowary]

I wouldn't mind continuing to play either! But if other people don't want to then I guess we can do a draw

Idk what's up with this, people are just dropping like flies. Maybe because it started late people had other stuff start in the meantime? But, like, dang, guys.

[cassowary]

Ah, that's a good point, whoops.

Independent of my own particular attitudes towards continuing the game, though, should we continue as though the deadline is still coming up in however many hours, or is it on pause given this situation?

[cassowary]

VOTE: Jake

[cassowary]

Sell me I am wrong on Grendel.

Like really sell me.

Because I really don’t think I am.

But maybe you can convince me

forgive me if I'm missing something obvious, but I don't even really see where you made much of a case on Grendel beyond this which came quite a while after you started pushing him:

Grendel I have scum pings on because the VCA is just weird and filled with assumptions like why stop at both town? Why not consider all possibilities? I kinda think Grendel is scum and one has to be scum or if they are both town then Grendel may be truth telling.

but like, what was the reasoning in #357, for example? it seems like you've been tunnelling grendel/jesse pretty hard for a while, and I'm open to the possibility that you're right, but it's hard to 'disprove' it when you haven't really made much of a coherent case imo

I'm not scumreading Grendel right now really, he seems pretty engaged and mostly solving-focused. there are quite a few people I would pick over grendel today (including you, math :p) so you're going to need to make a stronger case, I think.

[cassowary]

I'm getting the impression that Math already asked the mod about this, but Math, can you explicitly confirm that you got this info on the possible results direct from the mod, to avoid any weir potential confusion?

I'm good to vote grendel on this too, though. Seems like a result that's hard to excuse. Sorry grendel

VOTE: Grendel

[cassowary]

inb4 cassowary says something about me saying something similar once before when i was guiltied as scum lol.

Yeah, although I didn't pay super close attention because I was scum with you that time. :p

I remember you did do something kinda similar where you were like "if I gave reads how seriously would you take them" or something haha

[cassowary]

I'm wondering about the excess death last night as well. I want to say the Kop kill was town-motivated, because IIRC Fidget/Kop were fairly widely suspected, and Fidget might very well have been eliminated had she not swapped out. I wonder if it's the consequence of an overzealous townie who thought they'd spotted scum early on. Just seems like a weird choice for a scum-motivated kill, since I feel like scum would have wanted to push Kop as a suspect day 2.

[cassowary]

I... see where you're coming from but I feel like there's no scenario where we don't end up needing to eliminate grendel at some point.

I'm wondering what's the cost/benefit on "give him a chance and vote him out tomorrow if he doesn't follow through".

I mean in the worst case scenario grendel is scum vig and offs another townie tonight, them we kill him tomorrow? Do the numbers on that look even remotely favorable for town to the extent that it's worth it to risk that scenario?

I guess worst worst case scenario is that grendel is a scum vig and he shoots grey or titus or someone tonight at your urging, he goes "oh oops guess we were wrong" but manages to pass himself off as townie. I kinda think in that scenario we have to eliminate him no matter what, so we might as well get it over with today. Not convinced it's worth it to let him live. Sorry grendel :'( but I'm open to being convinced otherwise, I guess.

[cassowary]

I guess worst worst case scenario is that grendel is a scum vig and he shoots grey or titus or someone tonight at your urging, he goes "oh oops guess we were wrong" but manages to pass himself off as townie.

I left out a phrase here. I mean the worst case is that he shoots someone of your choice

but they flip town

, I think we have to vote grendel at that point bc he could still be scum, and then if he's town too we've just lost an extra townie to the vig and wasted a day miselim'ing him. So might be safer to just get rid of him today even if he's town :/

[cassowary]

I'm ok with the Titus wagon as well I think (not a huge fan of the contents of her posts, and still weirded out by the post restriction thing that I don't think she's even addressed), but I don't want to be the one to push her to E-1 yet.

Fwiw, I will see any attempt to elim today before coming up with a coherent plan to try and use Grendel's claimed vig tonight to clear him as both a quickhammer and scumclaim

If we're actually taking this possibility seriously I'd be down to try it as a weird gambit, but I can't really shake the feeling that it's just going to end with us needing to eliminate grendel tomorrow regardless.

I mean, possible scenarios:

Grendel kills target of our choice, they flip scum -> cool, grendel can stay, but what's the chance this happens with all the factors in play?
Grendel kills target of our choice, they flip town -> ??? I think we have to kill grendel
Grendel doesn't do anything -> maybe mafia RB or mafia saving role? or maybe grendel is scum lying about getting blocked. so what do we do here
Grendel kills someone else -> I think we have to kill grendel here too obviously, but problem is if there's some sort of redirecting role out there this is a way for mafia to force a miselim on town!grendel

I feel like these are the things we are going to need to address (as well as coming up with a target for grendel) if we want to make a plan on this and go with a different elimination today.

[cassowary]

Mine is also miscellaneous.

[cassowary]

I mean you made "oracle" one of the categories so I don't know if this actually counts as mistyx full claiming really

[cassowary]

In #1107 you made "informed/oracle" a separate category so it doesn't fall under miscellaneous, unless I'm misinterpreting something

[cassowary]

yeah i'm kind of just hanging around as well, idk if i have that much more to say at the moment

[cassowary]

Well, hmm, this Dannflor claim certainly makes things more interesting.

In that case still where'd the extra kill come from though?

Could

Grendel be scum vig after all?

Maybe this is just me, but I actually don't think something like a one-shot strongman scum vig would be that weird, and scum!Grendel could just sort of be bluffing about having additional shots. Hence Grendel being gung-ho to holster, and could have been just planning on claiming to be blocked on subsequent nights or some such. (If we say 'oh kill jesse' and Grendel goes 'I was blocked, guess it's scum protecting Jesse' this looks pretty good if Jesse is town, or even could be ok as a bus I think)

I don't really have a feel for what's considered within the range of possibility on this site, but something like that scenario doesn't seem too weird to me.

[cassowary]

Well, hmm, this Dannflor claim certainly makes things more interesting.

In that case still where'd the extra kill come from though?

Could

Grendel be scum vig after all?

Maybe this is just me, but I actually don't think something like a one-shot strongman scum vig would be that weird, and scum!Grendel could just sort of be bluffing about having additional shots. Hence Grendel being gung-ho to holster, and could have been just planning on claiming to be blocked on subsequent nights or some such. (If we say 'oh kill jesse' and Grendel goes 'I was blocked, guess it's scum protecting Jesse' this looks pretty good if Jesse is town, or even could be ok as a bus I think)

I don't really have a feel for what's considered within the range of possibility on this site, but something like that scenario doesn't seem too weird to me.

stop waffling

i've been voting grendel for over a week, there is no waffling on who is correct to eliminate here

Maybe there was room for waffling pre-CC but I am surprised people are still so willing to let grendel live. With all due respect, his case is sketchy as heck. Grendel got red-checked, claimed a killing role who hit town, and was CC'd by a town vigilante. What on earth is the argument for leaving him alive??

Even if he's town I still think we get more benefit from eliminating him than leaving him alive. I thought this before the CC and I think that argument is even stronger now.

[cassowary]

I'm not even sure if you're voting him?

I dunno, I don't remember moving my vote, and it doesn't look like I changed my vote in my ISO, but we've gone quite a while since a VC

I just felt like my post was being misconstrued as waffling over 'oh idk if grendel is suspicious' when I was in fact trying to get the opposite across despite my maybe-waffly tone

Pedit: math, Grendel can't be SK if mistyx is town because mistyx town is oracle who got setup info that there are no 3rd parties.

[cassowary]

I think titus's point is basically, occam's razor -- when your non loyal target failed, and Grendel was counterclaimed, what's the most likely explanation here -- that you got roleblocked and that we have two town vigs, or that Grendel is just scum?

[cassowary]

Like, I basically have to ask "is there a universe where Gamma Emerald thinks scum-vig is something that's okay"?

as I said, I don't think it would be that weird with heavy restrictions, but it might be really outside of the meta for Mafiascum, I don't know. I guess I should take everyone else's reaction to the idea as a sign that it's weirder than I think.

[cassowary]

Grendel also could be SK who killed Kop, that wouldn't be inconsistent with everything that's happened either and wouldn't require scum vig

[cassowary]

ughh, maybe you're right, this is dumb

[cassowary]

I've been at work for like 10 hours so forgive me my brain is slightly fried

I guess I'm now on the side of, I think we need to hear the modifier(s?) at this point to judge whether it makes sense to have the two town vigs or not

UNVOTE: grendel

[cassowary]

Oh, I bet I can guess what Dannflor's modifier is then and yeah the symmetry there makes me want to trust this

[cassowary]

are we still waiting on a replacement for nk15? I think the deadline is still indeterminate atm

I would vote Titus rn too, I just wonder if there's any sense in waiting for the replacement to go through

I do kind of feel like we're just going around in circles and need some actual hard info at this point to progress though

[cassowary]

oh I guess that makes more sense. For some reason I thought you were Jesse. I guess I just got used to thinking of nk15 as "the one who's not here"

[cassowary]

My role is

ghoul

-- I target someone at night and if I were to die, my target dies instead.

I asked some clarifying questions of gamma d2, and this is, um, apparently infinite-use but I do not get notified if the ability is triggered or not. Which makes me functionally immortal at night as long as I use the ability or not.

N1 I targeted Kop, actually, which was a reason I was more suspicious of Grendel -- thought it might have been an opportunistic scum claim when they had tried to kill me instead? idk maybe i should have mentioned this last day but I thought claiming this role would essentially make it useless. and this theory still didn't explain where the second kill came from anyway. oh well too late now ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

N2 I targeted pooky who obviously didn't die

tbh we've got, what, 8 people alive with 1 mafia left? I think if we can get it down to PoE of 3 (Dann, Pooky, me?) we can eliminate all 3 in any order and still win, pretty easy (7v1 miselim -> 5v1 miselim -> 3v1 [or 2v1 i guess if grendel dies due to not killing anyone] -> last PoE = correct elim, town wins). unless we think there's a remote chance grendel is scum and shot his only remaining partner in an insane gambit, or something, I think it's pretty much a lock.

[cassowary]

I asked some clarifying questions of gamma d2, and this is, um, apparently infinite-use but I do not get notified if the ability is triggered or not. Which makes me functionally immortal at night as long as I use the ability or not.

uh, scratch the second 'or not' here, I don't know why I put that there

[cassowary]

Ah dang, I guess you're right, have to do some actual work here then

[cassowary]

Cassowary, do you transfer the kill (like kill that would kill you now kills your target)? Or kill your target directly?

I am pretty sure it transfers. Flavor is Misery from Cave Story, and flavor-wise it's framed as a result of teleportation powers, not any actual killing I do myself. (It also says if a kill is attempted on me that my target 'will die', not that I 'will kill them', so I think that also implies transference.)

[cassowary]

We just need to find out cassowary's answer and this is pretty much solved

Cassowary, do you transfer the kill (like kill that would kill you now kills your target)? Or kill your target directly?

I am pretty sure it transfers. Flavor is Misery from Cave Story, and flavor-wise it's framed as a result of teleportation powers, not any actual killing I do myself. (It also says if a kill is attempted on me that my target 'will die', not that I 'will kill them', so I think that also implies transference.)

you mean this answer? or is there another question we're waiting on me to answer

[cassowary]

Cass have some general IRL respect points for the cave story reference. Sorry though, I still think you could well be scum here

honestly yeah I agree, I think it's highly likely that I'm going to have to die in order to solve the game, but that's fine by me as long as the plan actually works :p

[cassowary]

Its just... Gamma has no EM presence afaik. He has mostly resided in forums like this one, or MU, or our HS. Ghoul is an EM role no?

Worth noting that in the recent homesite game where gamma and I were the two last mafia left, one of the people left standing near the end had this role and it was also called "ghoul," and as you may recall it very nearly would have made us lose if not for a clever kill by gamma as the last mafia. So maybe he took inspiration from there? Idk, I'm just telling you what I've got, but I recognize that it does sound kind of fake, lol.

[cassowary]

Like if Cass's role theortically dosent count as a killing role by mod discretion then how does Dann count as a killing role? both them get a 1-shot if something that is normally out of their control occours. So if both players were truthful, and werent considered killing roles last night then Mistx would only have recieved two results last night, not three. Instead i prepose that both would be considered killing roles via mod's PoV, and one of these claims is fake becuase of it.

I am not sure this logic holds up. Like I don't think me getting a flip that reveals I'm not lying implies the last scum HAS to be Dannflor. If Dannflor's role is written as a "gated vig," I can see the mods counting that as a killing role but excluding mine since mine is not coded that way -- it's expressed like a redirection role rather than a "you get to kill someone if this happens," which is different from Dannflor's. Anyway I think the 3 killing roles could totally be Grey, Dann, and you. If we flip me today I just don't think you should insta-flip Dann tomorrow.

[cassowary]

(Wait, are we sure Dann will be able to make a prediction to get a kill if the night gets skipped? Dann, do you know if your prediction counts as an "action" in this context or not?)

[cassowary]

Ghouls ignore physics.

Has potential to hit flying targets

(DOES ANYONE ELSE WANT TO CLAIM THE KOP HIT N1?)

not super important but I feel like I should clarify "ghoul" is my role name; my character flavor is

Misery

from Cave Story:

although she is magic and can fly/teleport so probably could hit flying targets as well.

Also didn't Grendel actually do the Kop hit n1? Maybe that's what you meant here, sorry.

Jade Harley cannot fly and has no weapons

(doesn't she have a gun and like, magic space powers? lol)

Anyway if we really think it's between me and Mark, I'll vote Mark since I know it can't be me.

VOTE: Marky Mark

Sorry Mark, I actually don't think you seem very scummy, but I think this is a slot that can't get resolved any other way. :/

If decide to eliminate me instead today, I guess I can vote myself instead lol

[cassowary]

Presumably, yes.

...although I keep having the creeping feeling Grendel should still be on the table as well somehow. But 'multi-shot scum vig shoots partner' is ridiculous, right? Is there any other explanation? I'm generally inclined to trust Mistyx as oracle due to n2 result so I think Grendel can't be SK... (unless "3 killing roles" was a very lucky guess on mistyx's part?) Is there any other scenario? If not yeah I think it's between Dann and me.

Which by PoE makes my correct vote

VOTE: Dannflor

though, if it really is between the two of us, we should be able to get away with eliminating both of us and still win afaict?

[cassowary]

ok good luck!

[cassowary]

I really hope it is Dann lmao

[cassowary]

well done! what a weird game lol