FFVII Mafia: Over

[MrBuddyLee]

Hi all.

vote: Albert B.

[MrBuddyLee]

I just read xtoxm's, ABR's and armlx's posts. My initial guess is that xtoxm is scum with an ability to search for opposite scumteam. It's reasonable to guess that there are two scumteams in a game of this magnitude. It wouldn't surprise me if armlx is scum. It's possible that xtoxm is scum with the ability to hunt power roles, in which case armlx is his target and victim today. Tough to say.

1) What would the two scumteams be in this game?
2) Why would xtoxm claim vanilla while hinting at a guilty on armlx?
3) Who is taking sides on this issue most ardently? They likely have inside info on armlx's alignment.

[MrBuddyLee]

Oh, also, ABR is a nutjob but I don't think he would suicide this early as scum with a fake daycop claim. My initial guess is that he's town.

unvote

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, it's weird voodoo to direct cop investigations. But ABR, what are your current thoughts on the viability of an investigation of xtoxm?

[MrBuddyLee]

OOGEY BOOGEY YADDA YADDA YADDA

[MrBuddyLee]

I wasted my investigation on Xtoxm. He is scum. Confirmed.

Well, now the question is.. would ABR suicide as scum to kill the town cop investigating his scumteam?

I have no clue, since he's a wingnut.

But at least we're guaranteed one scum if we lynch Xtoxm today. ABR dies as scum tonight or tomorrow if Xtoxm comes up good guy. There's even a decent chance both are scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

vote: ABR

[MrBuddyLee]

Albert, you're an idiot. I hope all decent mods decide to ban you from their games in the future, because fakeclaiming a cop with a guilty on D1 is about as unbalancing and game-wrecking as you can get. Have some respect, man.

And/or die as the scum you are.

[MrBuddyLee]

Fuck.

unvote

Albert, you're a moron, but I won't vote for you unless you're counterclaimed.

Protown points to Cludsy.

[MrBuddyLee]

More likely, I think, is that you're some kind of scum (SK, or member of a second scum group, or something) who thought Xtoxm was probably lying scum of a different flavor (not a hard guess to make, considering how scummy he acted all day) and decided to try to use the situation to get yourself "confirmed" by pretending to be a cop and faking a guilty investigation on someone you were sure was scum.

I totally agree with this conclusion, except for the way it conflicts with the fact that ABR claimed Cid.

Here's the thing though. We know Albert is a terrible player. So he probably didn't think his actions through. So if he's actually a townie who's NOT Cid, he didn't realize that by claiming Cid he'd get a power role outed. (Cid's likely power and is probably pondering whether or not to counterclaim Albert right now.) If he's scum, he claimed Cid knowing full well he could get counterclaimed and killed immediately. If he's the real Cid, he'd have to know his claim would get him killed if he got lucky about xtoxm.

So which is more likely? That Albert's stupid scum who fakeclaimed Cid, or really really stupid town who is in the process of outing the real Cid? Or is he the real Cid?

(Choice 4: Cid as safeclaim, yuck.)

[MrBuddyLee]

Thanks for the protip.

fos: armlx

[MrBuddyLee]

Barrett was a watcher.

[MrBuddyLee]

I think the problem with this game is that when an attention-whore like Albert fakeclaims and gets a townie killed, it utterly demoralizes the town. We can't possibly read a thing from the fake-guilty, because not a single player in the game had any reason to believe Xtoxm was not scum. Scum would simply assume he was in another scumgroup.

So we learned next to nothing from yesterday. Good job Albert, hope you got the attention you were looking for. We're basically stuck with a second Day One. Yay.

[MrBuddyLee]

Typically, the way you have info on D2 from actions on D1 is because there were a few competing wagons and then one of them got lynched. You see their alignment and can determine who was trying to save them if they're scum and who was irrationally trying to bury them if they were town. But you need uncertainty D1 to make that happen.

Albert claimed a guilty, making absolutely everything that happened after that point worthless. And anything before that point would have yielded better results if we actually got to see who was willing to lynch an uninvestigated xtoxm as opposed to another candidate. We never got that chance. It was a fractional day at best, and we never got to see true intent to lynch before the phony guilty.

A one week D1 in a 25 person game? Tainted by a phony guilty? Useless.

[MrBuddyLee]

His statement of wanting to "test the cop who claims first" makes absolutely no sense. There is no reason why the order that Xtoxm and ABR claimed in should have made a difference. If he'd said he didn't believe ABR's claim, that would be different, but he never gave any indication that he didn't believe the claim, just that he wanted to ignore it until Xtoxm's claim was tested.

This isn't a terrible observation.. Liam, why did you want to test xtoxm instead of ABR?

[MrBuddyLee]

kloud, you think yesterday provided us with useful information that shouldn't be disregarded haphazardly. Well, here's you from yesterday:

FoS: xtoxm

I will go back and point out exactly what posts I do not like, which will most likely parallel posts already quoted by others, but I feel it would be beneficial for me to do so anyways.

At the moment, I am willing to give you the benefit of the doubt and see whether or not your day cop claim is true by going along with the suggestion of lynching either you or armlx. I would much rather not risk losing a power role so early in the game, and so I will

vote: armlx

.

And today you FOSed armlx but didn't vote. And now you voted for a policy lynch on ABR instead, waiting to see if it would gather momentum. And while you babbled on for ages about Barrett and character names vs. power roles, you haven't even touched on ABR's Cid claim.

I don't think you're trying terribly hard to find scum. You're trying to look like you suspect armlx, but you're not following through. And you're a little too willing to lynch ABR, who you don't really find scummy.

vote: kloud

[MrBuddyLee]

kloud, you're playing dreadfully.

1) You went down the rabbit hole arguing against "good guys in game = protown" and then in the face of four evidence points to the contrary, shifted your argument to the ridiculously useless "there's no proof the scum will go after major characters".


2)

I expressed that I was voting (ABR) based on utility alone, for I feel the need to rid the game of unhelpful and detrimental players will be the greatest benefit for the town at the moment.

A greater benefit than nailing scum? We're as little as three days from lynch or lose--two days if there's a single scumteam of 4-5.


3) You accuse me of hypocrisy for voting ABR and then accusing you of being scummy for voting ABR. Retarded. I was voting him for 12 hours til I realized a specific mistake I made. You unvoted ABR after a long-term vote with intent. That's way different from what I did, and it's sketchy of you to compare the two.

So anyhow, Cid = good guy or safeclaim, and if ABR is faking Cid we'll find out eventually no matter what. I voted him because I forgot about his nameclaim. Fortunately Cludsy wasn't as hasty as I was. I find it suspect that you're not leaning towards "hero character = protown alignment".


4)

Do you feel I need to address ABR's Cid claim? I have already given my piece about how at the moment I am more inclined to believe that not all major characters are pro-town power roles. What do you feel I need to address about the fact that ABR claimed Cid?

If ABR had not claimed Cid I would be voting him right now. There is no way the maker of this game, who loves FFVII, is going to make Cloud and Tifa bad guys, and Cid is a good guy across several games. I will eat my entire collection of hats he's an evil character--it would be the equivalent of making Rand al'Thor the bad guy in a Wheel of Time game or Luke Skywalker the bad guy in a Star Wars game. Ain't gonna happen.

So yeah, considering you were just voting Cid, I'd like to know whether you think the Barret=town w/ power, Dio=town, Bugenhagen=town, Reno=scum trend should be applied to ABR's and other future claims.

I also think it's suspect that your last FOS was on MBPikamon for this:

Also... about the dead Turk, looks like Xtomx was right about the mafia at least being Shrina, or Shrina related.

Who's to say the major characters aren't scum themselves? We do not know at this point, so I find it interesting that you would, on Day 2 with as little information as we have, be "pretty sure" that major characters would be scum targets.

Duh, it's common sense. Are you trying to imply that MBP didn't use common sense here, he actually just blurted out that his scumteam targeted a major character last night? What a huge stretch you use to try and make MBP look scummy.

Indeed, Reno was/is a Turk, but that might not necessarily mean that they all are. The phrasing of this passage makes me feel as though you have extra information that you are not sharing.

Again, common sense. The Turks are a group of 3-4 in FFVII, and when one comes up scum it makes sense that that goon's leader is also a Turk. if Tseng ain't Reno's scumpartner/godfather I'll be stunned.

[MrBuddyLee]

kloud, what do you think of the following proposal:

I propose that every player who is pro-town but has been assigned a "villain" character from FFVII should nameclaim immediately.

[MrBuddyLee]

Let's not forget that kloud's "reasoning" for voting ABR is not that he finds ABR scummy. He voted to waste a day and get rid of ABR so ABR would not be able to confuse us during scumhunting on D3 or D4.

Assuming this game lasts 6 days, I think wasting a day by lynching a nonscummy player reduces our chances of victory by 17%. Albert already reduced our chances by 17% yesterday, and I don't think we should repeat that mistake. We should lynch the scummy guy today so we have info tomorrow. A policy lynch doesn't teach us much about the people on or off the lynch. A policy lynch makes D3 into yet another D1.

It seems to me that if you actually think ABR is confusing the hunt for scum but isn't scummy, you could simply ignore his posts. If you think he's scum, make the case. Promoting a policy lynch as you've done today, kloud, is in my opinion about as scummy as what Albert did yesterday--Albert got rid of a player we all thought was useless, confusing and scummy, and you only think your lynch target is two out of those three.

[MrBuddyLee]

Any attempt to portray ABR as heroic or responsible yesterday earns a huge

FOS: armlx

[MrBuddyLee]

Can the Tony Montana voters please explain how a scumbag could possibly know for certain right now that another player is a townie?

[MrBuddyLee]

christian drago, can you please answer my question three posts above?

iamausername and Cephrir, same request to both of you please.

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: Natirasha

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: Natirasha

FoS: MBL

Hows abouts you spit us out an analysis of Zac's and Natirasha's posts, tiger?

[MrBuddyLee]

So the point of this story is that you do not know what my role is, and you do not need to know what my role is. Maybe Cid is somebody else. This does not matter to you.

unvote, vote: Albert

[MrBuddyLee]

I haven't retracted ANYTHING I've said on day 2.

Yes you did, you said you may or may not be Cid.

Now you're saying you are again. At this point, cry wolf syndrome is kicking in, and I have to say that if town loses this game, and you are town, you will be widely considered the one responsible for losing us this game.

If you are town:

* you made yesterday's lynch useless information-wise for the most part
* you have distracted town today with your shenanigans and are getting in the way of a proper lynch
* your claim of a major role yesterday probably shortened your lifespan considerably (you could have gotten a protect as Cid if you didn't lie about xtoxm and retract the Cid claim)

You're on a rampage alright.

[MrBuddyLee]

This all sounds like MBL pre-emptively justifying an ABR mislynch.

This all sounds like you blustering, because I couldn't possibly know whether ABR's a mislynch or not.

mFOS: armlx

[MrBuddyLee]

Interesting. You are so hasty with your convictions to condemn me for pushing for a policy lynch earlier today, and, based on two of the three reasonings you provide with the post above, it would seem you have turned a new leaf and have decided to do the same.

Unvote

FoS

: MBL

ABR retracting the Cid claim does make me feel that that is where my vote shall most likely go

I'm voting Albert because he retracted his Cid claim. The other points are purely me chastising him for being a total jackass. I am not policy lynching ABR, I'm lynching a player who got a townie killed yesterday and who now has absolutely no pro-town characteristics whatsoever.

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm also

FoS

ing Amrlx, he seems to have been far too defensive for ABR, and

he also pushed for Xtoxm's vote a lot

, along with iLord who ended up being Reno.

If you were a townie and someone came up with a fake-guilty on you, how would you respond?

FOS: Cludsy

for not thinking like a townie.

[MrBuddyLee]

armlx, other than the fact that xtoxm got a "guilty" on you, how did you view and treat his claim differently than ABR's? Don't you have metas that say both of them are liars regardless of alignment?

After reading your reactions to D1's events, I don't really think you're scum, but I am curious to know why you approached the two claims so differently.

[MrBuddyLee]

DOC PROTECT PLZ.

Albert, I just reread your posts. Mind explaining the strategy behind this play?

[MrBuddyLee]

armlx, when a player is as acutely aware of their own meta as ABR apparently is, can you actually use that meta in any useful way?

And even if he does have a meta of

lying

as town, does the meta say his lying as town results in bad things for town? Because I have lied before as town and it's NEVER been bad for town because I didn't get a townie lynched or wreck the day's lynch opportunities or soak a doc protect I shouldn't have.

Put another way, has Albert ever screwed the town over THIS MUCH by his lying as town?

Do we have examples of Albert lying as scum to compare this to?

[MrBuddyLee]

What do you mean, looked at as town? Other than his Cid claim, which he retracted, can you think of any one single thing ABR has done that should cause us to look at him as town?

[MrBuddyLee]

Albert, who are the scum on your wagon?

ABR, there are other roles that would most certainly want to target you N1 for your fake-claim.

I'm actually kind of stunned that if we have a vigilante, they didn't knock Albert's block off last night.

[MrBuddyLee]

Prepared to vote Liam if we don't get a claim soon.

[MrBuddyLee]

There is no way a doctor protected Albert last night. Therefore, a failed vig on Albert means he is bulletproof.

If he was a bulletproof townie he'd have let us know by now. He's bulletproof scum who set up a convenient story to explain his survival after a cop claim. I'll reread his play for nuance, but I don't see him as town at this point. If someone else sees a reasonable alternative explanation, please provide it posthaste.

confirm vote: Albert

[MrBuddyLee]

There's a chance CarnCarn is lying scum protecting scumpartner Liam, but not a huge chance.

[MrBuddyLee]

And you auto-assume the doc protected him after xtoxm turned up not scum? Given his history?

No, my point is that Albert's

intention

was to draw a doc protect. If xtoxm came up scum, Albert would have drawn the doc protect, which we now know is an anti-town play because at BEST Albert is a bulletproof townie who is not in need of a doc protect.

A bulletproof townie calling for a doc protect? I don't buy it. Albert is scum. Probably an SK, as bulletproof godfather is less prevalent than bulletproof SK in a large game.

[MrBuddyLee]

Albert's new claim and flavor:

Well I'm Cid. I'm a watcher. Flavor is my ship is crashed but I can use it at night to follow people. I targeted christinao drago last night and got no result.

Note: the ship is crashed but he can still somehow pilot it to follow people.

Albert's old claim and flavor:

IM A DAYCOP
in the aftermath of the airship battles where the Sierra is severely damaged, cid uses his knowledge of high-tier technology to build a spec scope that can detect abnormal levels of mako energy (jenova cells?) in their bloodstream. he can only use this once a day.

Note: the ship is severely damaged and so Cid builds a Cylon detector.

Carncran and MBL you are wayy overthinking things. I planned the doc protect to have cover for NK immunity? Implausible..

When you asked for the doc protect, you knew 100% you would get it if xtoxm came up scum. No doubt about it.

So why did you ask for it if you're a freaking watcher? You would be pulling that doc protect away from cops, vigilantes and other more powerful characters than yourself.

Why did you choose to watch drago?

Does anyone really think there are two watchers in this game?

[MrBuddyLee]

Carn Carn, can you please explain the mechanics of the Slots? Do you know what ability you're getting each night before you choose your target?

[MrBuddyLee]

Not thrilled with that, but at least it won't be a no-lynch.

That should be a lynch, but let's seal it.

vote: CallMeLiam

[MrBuddyLee]

I'd look damn hard at my bandwagon and opportunistic votes like this one for people in the Turks, cos they're sure as hell not on my team.

This looks possibly like an admission that Liam's scum, guys.

[MrBuddyLee]

There are two mafia groups and an SK, most likely. Look at the flavor and colors of the dead scum in the first post. Shinra and Turk, if my memory serves me right. Recall that Liam told us to look on his wagon for Turks--that may very well mean his scumpartners were avoiding voting for him. I doubt he'd have us give extra scrutiny to his scumbuddies like that, so they were probably coming up with excuses not to vote Liam.

Pretty sure CarnCarn nailed ABR, which is a bit odd considering he only had a 1/4 chance of doing so. Possible serial killer? If he's the SK, there's a vig out there most likely.

My guess is two three-man mafia teams, all with powers. That means c. drago is likely vanilla town.

Each team probably has a GF, a tracker/watcher, and a roleblocker.

Great news: no pro-town cops dead!

5 scum left out of 17 remaining, not terrible.

Pretty crazy that all kills managed to avoid Cludsy's protect/roleblock. Hopefully we have another pro-town tracker/watcher who can guide us today. Two days worth of results is not a terrible time to claim if you think you have scum dead to rights, especially considering there are three scumteams and we really need to eliminate one of them to cut down on the number of nightkills.

[MrBuddyLee]

And by the way, I doubt there was a successful protect N1 seeing as how there were four kills both nights. Five kills a night would be a bit of a spastic game, don't you think?

If I was Cludsy the doc, I think I'd have protected CarnCarn last night. But if he was forced to roleblock the person he protected, maybe not, since CarnCarn claimed investigative powers.

edit: whoa, CarnCarn claims to have been roleblocked. That would mean we have another vig out there for sure if Carn is telling the truth. Possibly three scumgroups of two, I suppose.

If Carn IS telling the truth, then all scum probably have powers, as I doubt a pro-town rb would have blocked CarnCarn. If CarnCarn is telling the truth, then this game has the potential for 5 NKs a night, which is more than I think I've ever seen in a game. Curious.

CarnCarn, do you think scum or town roleblocked you?

[MrBuddyLee]

You jackasses should have seen that claim coming a mile away.

[MrBuddyLee]

Lowell, carncarn claimed vig who was blocked last night. Which means we essentially have 5 killing groups if he's telling the truth. Thought you should know.

I said Tony's impending claim was obvious due to his slack attitude and overconfidence in the face of impending lynches. He was obviously prepared to claim Cloud or another very powerful role if he got in trouble.

I'm inclined to believe the claim, as the behavior's been consistent.

As for a doctor protecting Tony, that's not likely to happen but you never know. We have a dead doc, and I think two docs in this game would be overpowered for town--a cop claim early could be protected a looong time.

[MrBuddyLee]

If xtoxm really is a cop, and he really got a guilty armlx, he's insane at best.

I won't flip scum, and I will never be lynched

These were incredibly careless statements. You're really lucky you're not dead already.

[MrBuddyLee]

TonyMontana - 7 (Jebus, iamausername, CarnCarn, Cephrir, Yosarian2, GhostWriter, Natirasha)

Picking out Yosarian2 and Natirasha as scum. CarnCarn possible SK. Reading Jebus and Cephrir.

[MrBuddyLee]

iamausername, Natirasha = Turk

Yosarian2, Jebus = Shinra

CarnCarn=SK

wild card: Cephrir

Where to vote, where to vote?

[MrBuddyLee]

That's an outstanding way to distance from your scumpartner.

[MrBuddyLee]

If I may, why?

Because I have inside knowledge of the setup. I imagine it must have been pretty shocking for you to read that.

Now should we lynch you two or should we lynch the other scumteam first? I'm all ears.

[MrBuddyLee]

CarnCarn=SK

First of all, did you just assume that everyone on my wagon was scum?

Secondly, Sephiroth is the SK. There is no reason to believe Cait Sith would be a safeclaim.

I think there was a disproportionate percentage of scum on your wagon. Some were eager to vote you and reticent to vote Liam over ABR. (Though they claimed to find Liam scummy). Others attacked Liam aggressively for much of the day.

I agree that Sephiroth is probably the SK, but having the powers CarnCarn claimed fits well with the kind of power an SK would need to survive a game of this size. And since an SK obviously can't claim Sephiroth, he must have been provided a quality safeclaim to explain his powers away. Cait Sith's slots are a perfect explanation for that power, the flavor is convincing, and the game wouldn't be cheapened by the lack of an actual Cait Sith.

Then consider that CarnCarn claimed to target ABR N1 with no effect. He hypothesized that either he was blocked or that ABR was protected after fakeclaiming a cop with a guilty. Since it's extremely unlikely that ABR was protected N1, we're left with CarnCarn's story that he was roleblocked N1.

Plus, I'm still bothered by the fact that if CarnCarn wasn't blocked N2, as he claims, that we could have had FIVE nightkills last night. I see it as more likely that CarnCarn actually DID kill someone, but is telling us he did not.

So there are your choices; either:

* CarnCarn/Westbrook was roleblocked two nights in a row
or
* CarnCarn actually killed someone each night and lied about it

I'm guessing CarnCarn killed ABR N2. I'll reread to see who he killed N1.

major FOS: CarnCarn

[MrBuddyLee]

Hmm. kloud and iLord were run through. The rest were shot. (iLord was both shot and run through.)

So there are probably 2 scumgroups that shoot, a vig that shoots, and Sephiroth "running people through" with Masamune. I guess that means CaitSith/Sephiroth would have had to kill iLord and kloud the first two nights.

[MrBuddyLee]

If I may, why?

uh huh.

I'll ignore your attack, then.

So if I said I had a guilty on you, or tracked you to a dead townie, you wouldn't ignore my attack?

Your response looks really sketchy. I think you're nervous scum. Town would have laughed my comments off, or been interested in my attacks on the other four players I named. You seem eager to appear nonchalant about the fact that I have you dead to rights.

major FOS: Natirasha

[MrBuddyLee]

Tony's first three posts today were perfectly reasonable. And the tete-a-tete with you could be explained by the fact that he was an obvious power role, and has been telegraphing that since D1. He had no problem with looking a little irrational at the end of yesterday because he didn't want to get nightkilled. And it worked, yay. (At least I think, 'yay'.)

[MrBuddyLee]

It's possible, but less likely in my opinion, that Tony is Sephiroth safeclaiming Cloud. He was just way too bold D1 for an SK who'd need to last six or seven days to win.

[MrBuddyLee]

I was fucking around to see Natirasha's reaction. I got what I was looking for, and no, I don't have inside information on the setup.

Sorry to rain on your parade, CarnCarn. I know it's possible you're telling the truth, but I see a few unlikelihoods in your story and have to point them out.

Uh, wow, did you just accuse a third of the players here? Where to begin.

Interesting attempt to discredit me before you know if my claims are valid. Why would you do that? Nervous much?

First of all, I said I was a Jack of All Trades

Don't you mean "I AM a Jack of all Trades"? "I

said

" sounds so... noncommittal...

so I don't get to kill every night (unless I get extremely lucky).

I agree, that's what you said. The argument against you lies more in the fact that you're claiming to have been roleblocked two nights in a row than in who you actually targeted.

If you think about Yuffie, the doc + RB, dying last night, then it makes sense that I could have been either protected and RB'd or been RB'd by scum who were afraid I would target them.

That's N2. How about N1?

Also, how can you think that I am an SK AND that I killed ABR N2 (look at the kill method used to kill ABR)?

I don't anymore--actually read the nightkills more carefully. I think you killed kloud last night.

[MrBuddyLee]

Jebus, we just lost four townies overnight. And you guys just outed a likely power role. Of course I'm jumpy. We need to nail some scum, and fast.

CarnCarn is lying scum unless ABR was protected by Cludsy N1. Cludsy left us with minimal clues, but I find it difficult to believe that he would doc protect someone who just fakeclaimed a cop with a guilty.

Would any of you have protected ABR night one?

I'm not voting CarnCarn yet. I think I've succeeded in drawing attention to the possibility that Cait is Sephiroth's safeclaim, and I don't think town will allow him to win in endgame if that's the case.

And Jebus, your defense of Natirasha is interesting. You say:

I think his defense is equally strong

Let's take another look at that defense:

By definition,

people are selfish

. What I mean is,

I don't care about what you say about other people

(unless, of course, I have a reason to care, like in. This is why I get bored in most games I'm in: I like attention, I get bored. I always respond to people telling me I'm scum like this.

I keep on the defensive

, unless I'm either a, scum or b, a power role.

Point by point:
1) His agenda is selfish. Scum are more likely to be self-oriented than town.
2) He doesn't care about the alignment of other people. Scum are less likely to be curious about alignments--they just want to survive.
3) He's defensive. Scum are more likely to be defensive than town--town go on the offensive to catch scum.

So what exactly is strong about Nat's defense, Jebus?

[MrBuddyLee]

Looks like I'm the current vote leader with (3). Let's look at the cases, shall we?

1. Empking:

If Liam comes up scum I'll be looking at MBL for his unnecessary vote.

Weak reason. Do you really think I thought I'd get protown cred for posting the 13th vote on a 12-to-lynch wagon? If anything, I drew negative attention to myself.

2. Zakeri:

My main suspects for today are MBL, Christiano Drago, and Yosarian2.

Kloud doesn't seem suspicious to me

due to the fact that he couldn't tell it was Shrina as the Scum group versus The player's group. Also I believe CarnCarn isn't scum because of the roleclaim and the earnest he fought with using his results as a tell. Speaking of which,

looking over Yuffie's role, it looks like the doctor had a good reason to target ABR

. Likewise, We

can't trust the result on CD because he was blocked

.

a) This whole post looks like you wrote it up with your scumpartner overnight--especially considering kloud was announced as dead just two posts above your post! Did you rush to paste this from your scumpartner's PM?
b) you defend CarnCarn and conveniently post the cornerstone of CarnCarn defense in the next post: "obviously ABR was doc protected". A little too coincidental if you ask me.
c) You insinuate inside information about drago being blocked? Did this odd remark ever get resolved?

3. Natirasha:
Pure, unadulterated OMGUS.

[MrBuddyLee]

What do you think of Zakeri's coming-out post, CarnCarn? See what I saw about it possibly being pre-written overnight?

Yes, I realized the drago/ABR thing after I posted but the MS CPU error kicked in.

And sometimes, votes don't go through because there are voteblocking roles. There's no harm in adding an extra to making sure it goes through, especially close to deadline.

[MrBuddyLee]

Point by point:
1) His agenda is selfish. Scum are more likely to be self-oriented than town.
2) He doesn't care about the alignment of other people. Scum are less likely to be curious about alignments--they just want to survive.
3) He's defensive. Scum are more likely to be defensive than town--town go on the offensive to catch scum.

So what exactly is strong about Nat's defense, Jebus?

1) Selfish agenda doesn't always mean scum. And coming out and saying this isn't really much of a tell of anything, there's a good chance it's how Nat would be in real life (face it, how many selfless people do you know? I can only think of one :/).
2) Where'd this conclusion come from?
3) I'm vanilla. You accuse me of being scum. I have two choices - don't defend myself, and get lynched, or defend myself and (according to your idea that defensiveness = scum), I'd still be lynched. Not a very good way to think. Mafia is a fun game, survival should be an incentive of every player - it's no fun to be lynched out of a game, scum or not. Scum just happen to have this as a priority over helping their side, as town would.

So you still haven't explained how this is a strong defense by Natirasha, or why you're defending Natirasha in the first place. You're also defending with silly generalities like "if i don't defend myself I get lynched" which is not the point. The point is, Natirasha is not on the offensive scumhunting or curious about alignments or team-oriented. If you want to meta that as his town playstyle, please make the case, but also let us know why you curiously feel the need to defend Natirasha.

[MrBuddyLee]

Well I didn't see my name when I looked.

I was only looking for two names when I saw the results. ABR's and Mine.

If I really had set up that ocnversation beforehand, though, I also would have been looking for Kloud's name as well.

This is incorrect/a lie, right? You spotted Yuffie=doc/rb.

Speaking of which, looking over Yuffie's role, it looks like the doctor had a good reason to target ABR. Likewise, We can't trust the result on CD because he was blocked.

[MrBuddyLee]

This side-thread's about vote buying's a distraction. The point is, I've seen it before and there's no harm in placing L+1 or L+2 votes.

Every vote on a wagon means something. The first few indicate intent to place someone in danger. L-1 indicates near-complete faith in guilt, because you're putting the lynchee at the mercy of both scum and any idiot town that stumbles by. The actual lynch vote is the clearest form of intent there is, and is occasionally used by scum to fake pro-town intent. An L+1 vote doesn't indicate jack shit, except possibly "yes, the town's decided, let's make sure it goes through, I don't have any inside info that that person's a townie".

[MrBuddyLee]

@MBL - I defended Nat because he's not playing any different in this game than other games I've played/am playing in with him.

That, and the fact that most of your arguments about him seem weak :/

So he's a friend of yours? Or you already know his alignment and aren't worried about him killing you? Is he playing in a pro-town fashion? Can you point me to any one thing Natirasha has done in this game to help find scum?

[MrBuddyLee]

I think you should start out explaining why you're voting me, CarnCarn, particularly considering I've strongly suspected Tony's a power role for a few days now and yet scum hasn't taken a swing at him. Have you reread my entire post history, or are you just being opportunistic and OMGUSsy?

Note on your OMGUS, I'm not even voting you even though I think there's a significant chance you might be an SK with an awesome safeclaim. (Or, after Zakeri's various defenses of you, less likely but possible that you and Zak are scumpartners.) You have a role that you claim can investigate, protect and vig, so what exactly's antitown about my approach towards your role?

[MrBuddyLee]

Natirasha

replaced Zac. Said he had no interest in reading the game. Found CallMeLiam scummy, listed an utter falsehood as his reason:

I agree CML is scummy--it doesn't make sense to test a cop when you can test the subject first.

CalMeLiam never voted a cop on D1--he was voting armlx.

I'm old fashioned in that it'd take a lot for me to lynch a day-cop on day one.

I would rather not risk killing a daycop on day one.

This makes it look like Nat had an agenda coming in to the game, even as he claimed not to read the thread. The agenda, as it turns out, was to press aggressively for a dead Shinra.

Meaning if we have two factions, Nat is much more likely a Turk. Unless he has a history of TERRIBLE buses of scumpartners based on false reasons. One theory is that Nat's team may have a scumcop and had a guilty on Liam, thus Nat's aggressive press based on completely false/nonexistent info.

Further cementing Natirasaha's scumminess, he:
a) voted TonyMontana yesterday and today despite clues about powerroleness
b) unvoted TonyMontana reflexively today after the Cloud claim:

I believe the claim.

not waiting for possible counterclaim, as if he knew the good claim was coming and was satisfied to have outed it
c) was defensive and weird when I listed him as possible scum with several other people

So yeah, if Nat's scum, he's not Shinra. Thus I listed him in the

Turk

department for now. Nothing precluding him from being Sephiroth at this point.

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, please note that

Jebus

dropped off the radar after I pointed out that, bizarrely, he's defending Natirasha for no apparent reason. I originally thought Jebus was suspicious for a few reasons, including:

@Natirisha - What do you think of CallMeLiam, ABR, Yosarian, and armlx right now?

This looks like scum trying to set someone up for a fall--a curious choice of names, and why's Yosarian2 in there? Oh, here's why:

I'm still somewhat against ABR right now... His(ABR's) case against Yosarian seems legitamate as well, though I'm not sure I'm willing to go with ABR on that ~

So Jebus:
a) doesn't trust Albert
b) but likes Albert's case on Yos enough to mention it specifically
c) then adds Yos to the list of people to trip Nat up with

My theory here was that Jebus may be scum with Yos and Liam and distancing very sloppily. He slipped their names into the list of questions for Nat, hoping Nat would go on record protecting at least one scumbag. And the other two names Jebus spit out were people he suspected of being on the opposite scumteam: armlx and ABR.

Jebus REALLY wanted Tony dead yesterday, but then drew attention to his vote for Liam (distancing) while virtually begging Liam to defend himself:

vote: Liam as I said I would, since we're approaching deadline. If the deadline could be extended for CML to post some defense on this, I'd appreciate it, but for now, since nobody's going with Tony, this'll have to do.

Weird behavior surrounding Yosarian and Liam makes Jebus a

Shinra

candidate. There is a hitch in these two theories, but a lot of it looks curious enough to investigate further.

[MrBuddyLee]

October 4th. Vote count is 6-6,

Yosarian2

pushes ABR lynch aggressively. Mentions Liam for the first time as I question Liam:

This is a good question(about Liam); I want to hear the answer as well.

Alerts me to the possibility that Yos wants to look involved in the grilling of Liam.

October 11th, vote count becomes TonyMontana 6 Liam 6, Yos doesn't buy the Tony wagon and says Liam and ABR are still scummier, keeps pushing an ABR lynch but mentioning Liam, just not making a case on Liam, only chiming in agreement.

Yos discusses specifics of the Tony and ABR cases but not of the Liam case.

That was because he(Tony) seemed to "know" Armlx was town, right? It's a possible scumtell, sure. There are other possible explinatios for that too, though. In any case, I think that the overall cases on Albert and CallMeLiam are better.

By October 16th, it's 8-8 ABR-Tony. Yos is finally voting, for ABR. But makes a weird, snide remark about someone being Liam's scumpartner that sounds out of place:

why would you attack someone for changing wagons in order to try to secure a lynch? You Liam's scumbuddy or something ?

October 17th, vote is 10-9 ABR over Liam. Yos continues to push ABR but hedge his bets on Liam,

while still not having mentioned a single thing about Liam's specific scumminess/the case today

:

That being said, Liam also looks rather scummy, and if it looks like ABR won't be lynched I don't mind putting my vote there. I'd say that there's about a 60% chance ABR is scum, most likely SK.

Still doesn't appear to have considered the specifics of the Liam case, nor is he trying to persuade anyone about Liam.

Uses Albert=SK argument to try to drive the last two votes home on ABR, but still REALLY wants us to know he finds Liam scummy, but still doesn't list any evidence.

October 19th, Liam now at L-1, Yos ramps up the ABR push, specifically mentioning un-nightkillable SK after CarnCarn's claim:

Yeah, move that up to like 90% now. I've been arguing all day that ABR's play makes the most sense if he's a NK immune SK, and now it looks like he's probably NK immune. Can we please lynch him now?

The attempt fails--ABR is not lynched. Note that all day:

* Yos made cases against ABR and discussed others' cases on ABR
* Found Liam scummy but never, ever listed a detail or discussed a case or found anyone scummy for pushing Liam instead of ABR
* Discussed some specifics about Tony and discarded them

Also note that Yos found Tony Montana to be a possible cop on October 11th, yet pressed him hard all the way to a claim today:

But hey, if you really were trying to "retain your status as likely suspect", then congrats, you suceeded. Enjoy your lynch.

Yos knew Tony was a possible cop, knows that cops try to remain a suspect so they don't get shot overnight, and still pressed aggressively for Tony in total disregard of this.

But far more importantly, this is Yos's stance on the Liam thing today:

I made clear sevearal times yesteday that CML was a good wagon, that he was my #2 suspect, and that I was entierly willing to lynch him if I couldn't get an ABR lynch.

The fact that you never made a case or discussed anyone else's cases in an evaluative manner, Yos, plus the fact that you were worried about ABR being un-NKillable SK, leads me to believe you were Liam's scumpartner, and are

Shinra

.

[MrBuddyLee]

In that quote you just posted, here's Yos acknowledging one reason why Tony might know something he shouldn't:

There are other possible explinatios for that too, though.

aka: If Tony's a cop, it would explain the oddity.

And there's a vast difference between how you handled Liam, how I handled Liam, and how Yos handled Liam. I ignored Liam most of the day and specifically said I wasn't thrilled with the lynch. You said you found Liam neutral to protown and provided a little evidence. Yos said repeatedly that he found Liam second scummiest on the day, REALLY wanted to appear as such, but never made a case to try and persuade anyone.

I know Yos, and generally he tries to persuade when he finds someone scummy. The fact that he found Liam second scummiest, but never made a case or evaluated anyone's case is extremely suspect. Also, he found ABR 90% scummy but never evaluated the Liam cases to see if people were using craplogic on Liam to protect ABR.

Liam was an obvious wagon target from D1. The correct scum play was to bus him with words, but if possible not vote him, and neither you nor I did that, CarnCarn. Yos talked shit about Liam all day but never voted him, which is prototypical scum behavior.

[MrBuddyLee]

If anything, my impression from the day yesterday was that we seemed to both looking at the game from the same perspective and reacting to the same events in similar ways,so I had a good vibe about you.

Kind of. In retrospect, you seemed pretty eager to make everyone know Liam was your second choice, but you never explained why. That's what makes me suspicious of you. In contrast, I didn't bother pursuing Liam or making it appear that I found him scummy, because I didn't see the main point against him as damning.. he actually addressed it satisfactorily:

Well testing Xtoxm's claim didn't involve lynching a claimed cop.

If you really found him second scummiest all day, I'd think pro-town Yos would have made the case. But you made no case at all, just rode the coattails of others who found him scummy for whatever reason. It's exactly the way I'd expect scum to play it: don't get your scumpartner any deeper in trouble, press for the lynch of the SK who's a direct threat to you, but appear to be involved in Liam's lynch all day.

[MrBuddyLee]

Well, if you were really that nonchalant about Liam, I doubt you'd have mentioned him in pretty much every post. I see what you're saying here about your priorities yesterday, but I have to note that the amount of attention you gave Liam is disproportionate to the amount of effort you actually put into making cases against him.

You do realize we almost definitely have a vig, an SK, and two scumgroups, and that the cases we make during the day lead to kills at night. If you want scum to crosskill a bad guy, you need to make the case, and you didn't seem to actually want Liam dead, you just wanted to LOOK like you wanted Liam dead.

[MrBuddyLee]

^^^

That argument is devolving into semantics. I don't think MBL's case is good enough to warrant... well, anything.

What do you think of my cases on Jebus and Natirasha then? Or are you just trying to discredit me for some reason?

[MrBuddyLee]

1. Yosarian2
3. Empking
4. wolframnhart
5. iamausername
7. DynamoXI Lowell
10. SpamWise Cephrir
11. Jebus
12. Grimmy
13. Cavebear with a toothache
14. christiano drago
16. MBPikamon RiceballTail
18. GhostWriter
20. Westbrook_Owns_U CarnCarn
21. TonyMontana
22. Zakeri
25. MrBuddyLee
26. Zac Natirasha

I've touched upon a few, let's run through the whole list:

25. MrBuddyLee -- good guy. one of the few actually trying to find scum. is being voted by a few significantly suspicious people (Empking, Zakeri, Natirasha). Probably not dead today because both scumgroups thought they could make hay about yesterday's MBL-13th-vote-for-Liam and get MBL lynched today. Bad plan, you should have nightkilled me.

21. TonyMontana -- claimed Cloud. Probably a power role, off-chance that this is Sephiroth's safeclaim. Should not be lynched without letting him claim results.

20.

Westbrook_Owns_U

CarnCarn - Claimed without provocation, but it's an odd role that could easily accidentally vig someone he had hoped to protect or investigate, which sounds more SKish. Claims to have been blocked twice--feasible but that requires that we have 5 killing groups.

14. christiano drago - claimed vanilla, I believe. Has done nothing today--has no suspects. But his caution on the TonyMontana issue is protown.

1. Yosarian2 - Made impressions yesterday. Reasonably correctly pushed for an ABR lynch but was curiously vocal yet not at all persuasive about Liam. Claims that's because chasing one person a day is enough, but if you're town, you should be making more than one case in case you're nervous about being nightkilled... leave a legacy, man. A prime Shinra suspect.

26.

Zac

Natirasha - Currently voting MBL for pure OMGUS reasons. Admitted to being too lazy to read the first day and a half of the game. Pressed Liam for a nonexistent reason, leading me to believe Nat's scumgroup may have investigated Liam as guilty overnight. And, curiously, said he was going to reread the thread for Yos and armlx, (thinks armlx is scum but gives no reason). And again today made sure to let us know that he reread the thread for Yos and armlx. Seems a little too eager to make that point--possible distancing from one or both? Demanded a claim from Tony at L-2, unvoted immediately after the claim, seemed to be prepared for it and not at all skeptical. Prototypical scum behavior.

[MrBuddyLee]

5. iamausername - Was all over Liam from the start of yesterday, and switched to TonyMontana a week later. Popped back over to Liam, then over to ABR at deadline after CarnCarn's comments. In retrospect, this is pretty natural behavior, other than the Tony irrationality. I don't think he shows the overcertainty on a Shinra guilty that a Turk would have, so I'm retracting my guilty call on iamausername. I also like his attacks on Empking.

3. Empking - doesn't have a real suspect right now. Voting MBL for sole reason: "he placed an unnecessary 13th vote on Liam yesterday". Other than that, Empking has no other suspects, and since I know I'm not scum, this means Empking is leaving his vote on a townie and making no attempt to scumhunt. Either very lazy town or scum playing conservatively and hoping not to be called out.

4. wolframnhart - Somewhat quiet but asking good questions and showing thoughtfulness. Pointed out the posts that he agreed with about Liam's guilt. Asked Tony questions instead of just outright voting for him, apparently also noting a possible power role there. Questioning everyone--seems genuinely curious and on the offense, not on defense. Looking townish.

10.

SpamWise

Cephrir - Doesn't explain why the case on Liam is good, explains why the case on Tony is good. Curious. Does attempt to try to find connections to iLord the Turk, which is either pro-town or pro-Shinra. Said one day that ABR was "likely scum" but kept his vote on Liam, then the next day said it's better to lose a townie (Liam) than a tracker(ABR) and "there's a substantial chance ABR's not lying". A lot of flip-flopping around deadline. REALLY wanted Tony dead--"if he'd claimed anything else I would probably still want to lynch him". Wow, if Tony'd claimed any of the other party members you'd want to lynch him? Not liking Cephrir's recklessness and his complete lack of suspects right now. "It's nice how CML's wagon can contain both Turks and bussing Shinra members." Interesting observation... so which are your scumpartners and which are your enemies, Cephrir?

18. GhostWriter - Decently curious, a strong ABR defender and Tony attacker, voted Liam out of convenience yesterday. His use of "ethos" as a defense of ABR looks townish. Basically that means he used gut to clear AB Rin his mind instead of using the facts to attack ABR, which I think scum would have been more likely to do. I don't like 2 things about GW: 1) him asking me why he's not on the list, after saying he likes my scumhunting.. almost looks like an attempt to use me to clear him of suspicion. 2) He doesn't believe ABR was protected N1, in which case he would have to believe CarnCarn is lying, which would mean that CarnCarn is 100% scum. GW, take another look at CarnCarn and let me know what you think of him and his claimed actions N1 and N2, and his role.

[MrBuddyLee]

7.

DynamoXI

Lowell - hasn't done jackshitall in two months. Curiously mentioned iLord in a nonskeptical way, possible association there. Other than that, nothing to work with.

11. Jebus - As I've pointed out, Jebus really wanted to make us think he wanted Liam dead, but he didn't make a case. He also unvoted Liam 12 hrs later and didn't vote for anyone.. which saying he didn't want to lynch a town ABR. So Why'd he unvote Liam there? Really wanted Tony dead. Tries to seem a little TOO unhappy about the Tony claim. Defends Natirasha for no good reason. Found Yos suspicious for a case ABR made on Yos, even though Jebus thought ABR was scum at the time. Jenus is too squirrelly, and is possible

Shinra

.

12. Grimmy - hasn't done shit but I get a slightly protown vibe off him for his measured skepticism of claimed roles. Bitches about not voting to everyone, but is not voting for anyone. Worried enough about getting nightkilled that he wanted to get some evidence on the table before sunset. Scum wouldn't worry, as they could easily talk with their scumpartners overnight.

13. Cavebear with a toothache - dreadfully inactive, but I get a mild town vibe off him. Voted Tony briefly yesterday. Voted Liam and posted reasons, including one of his own. Currently has no suspects, which I find dreadfully scummy coming from a huge lurker.

16.

MBPikamon

RiceballTail - Riceball decent vote decent reason. Pikamon was too early with the Shinra talk--seemed to know Shinra killed iLord the Turk, spent a fair amount of time worried about an association with Zac (Natirasha). Shows slight protection of Cloud before Tony claimed Cloud.. could just be setup speculation.

22. Zakeri - I don't have time for this last one right now.. back in a bit.

[MrBuddyLee]

This is like the third or fourth time you've mentioned that my abilities make me SK or SKish. Either you truly don't see that my abilities were designed to help town, or you're scum that's trying waaay too hard to get a claimed PR lynched.

Settle down there, captain defensive. Am I voting for you? Have I encouraged anyone to vote for you? Should we all trust your claim blindly? Do you think the SK will be a powerless chump with a vanilla claim?

The protect part strikes me as weird. If you target someone you find scummy, there's a 1/4 chance you can protect them from a crosskill or vig kill. Not too thrilled about that as a pro-town role. The fact that you=town means Yuffie had to protect Albert N1 bothers me as well.

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, CarnCarn, the fact that your "actions" have been blocked twice means your claimed role is not confirmed in the least. I don't understand why you think you should be beyond scrutiny--it's a little overdefensive in my opinion.

[MrBuddyLee]

There's no way iLord and armlx were both Turks--he defended armlx way too openly. And get this:

I'm thinking that Shinra is a scum group, and that Team Jenova is another scum group, and that ABR and Xtoxm are cops for those groups respectively.

Yet another piece of evidence from the mouth of a known scum that there may very well be scumcops in this game who are looking for members of the opposite team.

I don't particularly see any connections to iLord after rereading his posts. He mostly obsessed over armlx, ABR and xtoxm.

Also, I doubt a scumteam would be given the safeclaim of Cloud--too powerful a claim and would put the other team at a disadvantage. So Tony is less likely to be scumcop than SK.

[MrBuddyLee]

Back to my final analysis: Zakeri:

I actually just realized this is an out-and-out lie:

I believed Xtoxm knew Armlx was scum because they were scum buddies.

I think that's not true, because right after xtoxm's claim you said you thought xtoxm was a jester:

In fact, you've played so horribly this round in your defense that I'm will to consider you a Jester. Vote: Xtoxm

This makes me think

you knew armlx was not Shinra because you are Shinra

, you knew xtoxm was making a stupid lie, and therefore you figured xtoxm had to be a suicidal jester.

Thinking about the xtoxm situation, I just realized something: Shinra would know all along whether or not xtoxm was lying about armlx being Shinra. So:

* If armlx is actually Shinra (maybe a 10% chance at this point) then Shinra would wagon him but would also try to get xtoxm in trouble as a possible scumcop for the Turks
* If armlx is NOT a Shinra, then the Shinra would have immediately thought that xtoxm was a jester(like Zakeri did), lying scum, probably a Turk, possibly an SK

I think it makes sense right now to go back and read the game to see who reacted in what ways to the bogus armlx=Shinra claim by xtoxm. But for now, Zakeri calling xtoxm a jester makes Zakeri look a lot like Shinra laughing at xtoxm's lie.

vote: Zakeri

[MrBuddyLee]

Why does that require 5 killing groups?

Because both nights we've had 4 kills without CarnCarn claiming one. Add his into the mix and you'd have 5 kills a night.

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, I'm kind of surprised MBL is buying into the scumcop thing, based on what iLord said. He was clearly wrong about both xtoxm and ABR, and I wouldn't be surprised if his comments are just general confusion-increasing attempts from scum.

iLord wasn't aligned with xtoxm or ABR so he wouldn't have inside information on either of them. He'd have full inside information on his scumteam (Turks) and from that infer information on the other scumteam (Shinra).

I think iLord wanted us to be wary of a Shinra cop hunting Turk scum. He was laying the groundwork to attack the first person who came up with a guilty on his buds.

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: Cephrir

[MrBuddyLee]

xtoxm claims
ghostwriter asks for details
wolfram asks specific questions
drago speculates xtoxm is tseng or jenova, doesnt factor in a safeclaim
ghostwriter: you'll only be able to target one of possibly multiple scum groups
drago wants to lynch xtoxm before his target
carncarn votes xtoxm "even if you arent scum"
zakeri considers xtoxm a jester--this is before xtoxm says he investigates shinra
iLord wants xtoxm to blow a safeclaim

ghostwriter: what kind of people you, as the cop, are looking for (I'm nearly 100% sure that you aren't just going to be able to look at someone and get a blanket result of "oh, they're against the town; oh they're not against the town". There's got to be some one/group you're aiming for in general

xtoxm says he looks for shinra and armlx is shinra
wolfram unvotes. kind of sets up the 1-2 punch on xtoxm (lynch armlx then xtoxm)
ghostwriter unvotes
iLord still wants xtoxm the "shinra cop" dead instead of armlx (bizarre since iLord is a Turk!)
wolfram calls out iLord, still playing it cool
wolfram shows genuine uncertainty--he's probably not shinra
ghostwriter agrees to lynch armlx
iamausername shows uncertainty, agrees to lynch armlx
zakeri indeed hints that maybe armlx+xtoxm are shinra scumpair, expresses confidence that xtoxm isnt a shinra-seeking cop. zakeri probably not shinra,

possible turk

, votes for armlx
(note: no obvious signs of Shinra responses yet)
Albert claims daycop.
(now, shinra know xtoxm is lying from before, and turks probably suspect that either xtoxm or ABR is the shinra cop looking for turks. shinra don't know if ABR is a turk cop looking for shinra yet)
iamausername immediately votes xtoxm
zakeri votes xtoxm
tony votes xtoxm
liam (shinra) votes armlx cause he knows xtoxm will get busted overnight for lying about armlx=shinra
liam asks for shinra-hunting flavor from xtoxm
empking wants to "test" xtoxm by lynching armlx, just like Liam.

Possible Shinra

.
drago wants xtoxm dead for lying
cavebear-good curious questions about the two cops. asks ABR: "Do you detect raised levels of Mako energy or Jenova cells?" Would a Turk or Shinra ask this question?
dynamo shows mild uncertainty

GhostWriter: "For him to get

more

mislynches, you'd have to be the one to randomly have been guessed right. On top of that, you'd have to be aligned with Shinra upon death. The point that I am making is that he

will not

get

other

mislynches out of this. The only way for him to even stay alive after your death is if you are not only scum, but specifically Shinra."
Note Ghostwriter:
* says "more" mislynches meaning he knows armlx is a mislynch
* says "randomly guessed right" implying he knows xtosm is guessing
* seems to know armlx won't come up Shinra
Note that if armlx does come up Shinra, xtoxm can get more "mislynches". But GhostWriter expresses absolute certainty that xtoxm "will not" get more mislynches.

GW = probable Shinra

Jebus doesnt seem to know that armlx isnt shinra. jebus may not be shinra after all. wants to keep xtoxm around to hunt shinra.

possible turk.

Yosarian on xtoxm: "I'm like 95% sure is not just a fake claim, but possibly the worst fake claim I've ever seen?" and votes xtoxm.

Very possible Shinra

who knows xtoxm is lying. Is Yos really this sloppy?
Tony: "If xtoxm really is a cop, and he really got a guilty armlx, he's insane at best. In which case, he would still be our best lynch." this could mean Tony knows xtoxm isn't Shinra. Tony could be the Shinra cop that looks for Turks...
Empking overreacts to Tony's posts, seems to know Tony's talking about xtoxm being wrong about Shinra.
Spamwise/Cephrir seems too certain that xtoxm is wrong.
cavebear shows uncertainty, votes armlx
wolfram again with the 1-2 punch armlx then xtoxm

Ghostwriter looks really bad here for his approach towards xtoxm. he knew early that a cop would be looking for one specific scumteam. he seems to know xtoxm chose randomly to try and mislynch or get lucky. he seems to know the result is probably a mislynch, as he knows armlx isnt shinra.

vote: Ghostwriter

Lots of people look like possible Shinra from this analysis: GhostWriter, Yos, Empking, TonyMontana.

[MrBuddyLee]

Shinra knew immediately that xtoxm was lying about armlx being Shinra. That's why I went back and read the game from the perspective of a Shinra.

Yos, what do you think of GhostWriter's actions after xtoxm claimed armlx was Shinra?

[MrBuddyLee]

Well, if you'd really rather me answer that then him, I don't think it's as strong as you do and that you're quoting him out of context.

I think it's weird that you don't realize he's already responded 5 posts above yours. Why are you hesitant to talk about GhostWriter? How specifically did I quote him out of context?

[MrBuddyLee]

If CML comes up scum then I'll be looking at MBl for his unnecessary vote.

This is your sole posted reason for finding me your #1 suspect. If you're town, you'll get your ass kicked for this when I come up dead tomorrow morning. (Yes, once MBL kicks into high gear finding scum, he invariably ends up dead the next morning.)

Either clarify your position or go find some actual scum to vote for.

Also, you were right alongside Natirasha in wanting TonyMontana lynched. I'd think you'd be skeptical of the wagon your #2 suspect is on...

Oh, wait, you and Natirasha are the only two nitwits voting me right now. So you're in lock step with Nat "suspecting" both Tony and myself, but you suspect Nat strongly? How is it that you agree so strongly with your #2 suspect's opinions?

I call shenanigans and crappy distancing.

unvote, vote: Empking

[MrBuddyLee]

1) It doesn't matter whether or not you suspect TonyMontana anymore, you goof--he claimed Cloud. What matters is that you and Natirasha both suspected him at the same time. And both you and Natirasha have been in agreement on your top lynch suspects at every moment today and part of yesterday.

And yet you claim that Natirasha is right now your #2 suspect. Why do you suspect Nat if you agree with Nat on everything that's happened in the past month of this game?

2) In a game with 2 scumteams, even if I was scum, you should still be evaluating my posts to see if I'm scum with an idea of who the other team's scum are. Unless you only care about surviving and not about catching scum. "Leading the town" is a pure scumtell when the mafia are only leading you away from themselves.

So what do you think of the suspicions and cases made by me, your "#1 Suspect"?

[MrBuddyLee]

I believe the scum may be trying to put us to sleep with dreary tales of stone, soup and jam.

Let's spice this shit up--it's dreadfully dull. C'mon scumbags, start a wagon on the other team ffs.

[MrBuddyLee]

How do you tell during an

isolated

read that someone hides at opportune times? Don't you need to see the full thread to know when it's an opportune time?

FOS: Lowell

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm assuming Tony screwed up and assumed he was chasing Sephiroth when actually he was chasing Dyne?

[MrBuddyLee]

Hmm no, apparently Dyne was shooting before and Sephiroth's still slashing away.

[MrBuddyLee]

Alive: 13/26
1. Yosarian2
3. Empking
4. wolframnhart
5. iamausername
10. Cephrir
11. Jebus
12. Grimmy
13. Cavebear with a toothache
14. christiano drago claimed vanilla
20. CarnCarn Claimed cop/doc/rb/vig
22. Zakeri Claimed cop looking for Shinra
25. MrBuddyLee
26. Zac Natirasha

There should be a cop looking for Turks out there, who has about 4 results.
There's an SK, two Turks and a Shinra out there.
Zakeri should have a result.
CarnCarn says wolfram is not Sephiroth.
Let's see some activity. We

[MrBuddyLee]

I think this game'd be brutally unbalanced if there were two teams of four scum. And scum would be fucked if there were two teams of two. I'm betting the farm on 3 and 3, especially considering there are two SKs and at least one vig.

Watching carefully for the Turks coordinating behavior after last night's discussions. Time to read MKPikamon's thin posts for possible connections.

Also, who freaked out about Tony's claim? Seph would have.

[MrBuddyLee]

You guys know from the trackers own mouth that I didn't move on Night One - and if I didn't move, it's reasonably easy to assume what my role is likely to be.

[MrBuddyLee]

I think the Turks are our priority right now; we've got two Shinra down, and they were around for long enough to make it possible to find links to them. Only one dead Turk, and he might as well have died on Night Zero for all the good we can get out of his interactions. We need to kill another Turk soon, and I don't think MBL is one.

This is not protown thinking.

[MrBuddyLee]

A Serial Killer that is hitting out aimlessly from now on is much more favorable to have around than a Scum Group specifically aiming for Townies.

This is not protown thinking.

[MrBuddyLee]

We need to eliminate nightkills. The best ways to do that are:

1) Kill a Shinra
2) Kill the SK

Killing Turks is fine, but not optimal right now.

Regardless, let's get finding scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

Jebus, you are hypothesizing that in a game of 26 players, 10 are anti-town. Either you are an idiot or you are trying to intentionally obfuscate the fact that you know how many scum are in each scumgroup.

I'm going to assume the latter unless anyone can find me proof that Jebus is an idiot.

vote: Jebus

[MrBuddyLee]

Especally if there are 2 shinara left and 3 turks left, which seems most likely; lynching a Shinra today and tommorow would probably lead to a Turk win unless there's a lucky crosskill, wouldn't it?

Now this is disturbing coming from a player with a solid reputation. Yos, you also claim to believe we started this game with 4 Shinra, 4 Turks and 2 SKs out of 26 players?

39% scum. Riiiiiiight.

major FOS: Yosarian2

[MrBuddyLee]

If my belief (that there's a good chance we're actually at

7:3:2:1

) is correct, then whatever we do, we'll have to rely on crosskills to have a chance

*facepalm*

Are large games really running at 40% scum these days? Maybe I've been out of the loop for too long, but I thought 33% was already pretty daunting for town.

[MrBuddyLee]

Empking, what's another possible reason I'd be supportive of Shinra/SK chasing today rather than hunting Turks?

That's right.. if I were a Turk I'd be thrilled to kill the other factions off. Why aren't you concerned that I might be a Turk?

FOS: Empking as a possible Turk

[MrBuddyLee]

An open question to everyone:

1. Yosarian2
3. Empking
4. wolframnhart
5. iamausername
10. Cephrir
11. Jebus
12. Grimmy
13. Cavebear with a toothache
14. christiano drago
20. CarnCarn
22. Zakeri
25. MrBuddyLee
26. Natirasha

Which of these players are playing like they want to lay low and avoid attention in order to survive, rather than hunt the remaining 4 scum?

[MrBuddyLee]

Been sick. I'm here.

So...um...I suppose I'll just post my (short) thoughts on assorted players. I'm not sure, but I feel as though I've been very unhelpful this game. I blame it on the tl;drness of some of the players in this game.

I thought you said you were just lazy in general.

I have no intention of wasting my time reading more than 10 pages, so...

Way too many excuses coming from you. You're probably scum.

Yos, what do you think of a massclaim at this point?

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL wanted to see people's attitudes towards massclaiming. Yields info.

[MrBuddyLee]

If

we

the two scum teams started with four members each

baaahahahaha

vote: iamausername

[MrBuddyLee]

Haha, holy shit.

First of all, Yosarian's posts ring of caught scum. The only question is whether to lynch him first out of all our prospective scum.

Anyone up for a massclaim now that our Turk cops are claimed?

[MrBuddyLee]

I agree that M-M's posts reek of desperation as well.

I think that before we lynch anyone today, we should do a thorough review of both claimed cops and their investigatees posts from the first few days to see if their "results" jive with their behavior. Lynching them before that would be a huge mistake, imo, as there's still information to be gained from today regardless of which scum gets lynched at the end of it.

My gut tells me there are two scumteams duking it out in public right now. Their posts smell of adversarial desperation, and not of the townish kind. Keep in mind, if there are four scum per team, they DEFINITELY have scumcops to look for each other.

[MrBuddyLee]

OK, I just skimmed iamausername's post history. He looks like he has a little too much inside information on both Shinra and Turks all game. I think this is what's going on:

iamausername is

Shinra

, and a member of his team is capable of investigating to find Turks. Therefore, iamausername knows that Machiavellian-Mafia is a

Turk

because one of his teammates investigated Cavebear. He chose now to release this information now because M-M was demonstrating too much info on who the remaining Shinra were, and needed to shut M-M up and change the direction of the conversation today.

M-M, knowing he was caught, is pretending to be an investigator looking for Turks, but is actually is a

Turk

himself, and a member of his team is an investigator looking for Shinra. His team knows that Yosarian2 and iamausername are Shinra, and he is trying to take them down before he goes down himself.

It is possible that iamausername is a town-aligned cop. It's also possible that Zakeri is a town-aligned cop, but it's also possible that Zakeri is a Turk whose teammates know who some Shinra are.

Time to read more carefully. I think I am mostly right on this, but I'm not positive yet.

[MrBuddyLee]

Let's lynch Yosarian2. He obviously hasn't been paying attention to the game and evaluating people's scumminess if he thinks Carn is claiming "cop" all the sudden.

unvote, vote: Yosarian2

It might be a wiser play to lynch one of the Vince Valentines today, but then again, I have a feeling they'll take care of each other overnight.

[MrBuddyLee]

Yos, how can you suspect me? Did you miss the part where I claimed cop with an innocent on you?

[MrBuddyLee]

If M-M turns up to be Vince Valentine, scum really need to crosskill the piss out of each other tonight, thanks. I'd say iamausername is likely scum, especially if M-M really is Vince. Both teams seem to know that Yosarian2 is scum, and he's done absolutely nothing protown this game, so he's another decent crosskill target. Beyond that, just read the game carefully, I think there's enough evidence to find the scum at this point.

Good luck with your night action, CarnCarn. Unless you're scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

Zakeri looks a little too sure that M-M is telling the truth here. Possible scum.