A warlock, a werewolf, and a vampire... [Game Over]

[Gentleman 3]

Gentleman 1 locktown energy for going for his heart's desire.

[Gentleman 3]

Why?

The G1 & L7 pairing looks a lot townier than with L8. Especially L7's response to being asked makes it likely that they aren't scummates.

[Gentleman 3]

Is it only because he asked Lady 7?

Yes, instead of asking/accepting someone who was already willing, he asked someone who he's trying to read.

[Gentleman 3]

Greetings.

I'd been following along loosely with this game up to a point, although more as an exercise in figuring out the people behind the accounts rather than trying to analyze alignments.

I'll get caught up now.

[Gentleman 3]

I suppose I should post my thoughts more intermittently as I'm catching up rather than simply dumping them all at once. I've set up a few of my own word replacement nicknames, so apologies if a nickname I use isn't the consensus nickname.


Gentleman 4 (Tennis / Soccer)'s intro struck me as fairly awkward and scummy, but later on I felt that his posting improved. Specifically, his introduction talking about his internet and lack of any gut reads felt like a forced attempt to fit in, but later his point in 144 I thought was a fairly decent observation.

Gentleman 1 (Sans)'s read in 131 was a minor one but one that I feel reflected well on him for making the read in the first place. As I said, minor, but the rest of his posts so far give me no reason to doubt a town lean on him.

Other assorted townreads on Lady 7, Lady 3, and Lady 6 (Seal).


Lady 8's 197 struck me as a scumpost like few posts ever tend to do. Along with 168 which I find tonally scummy, she's likely my top suspect for scum so far.

[Gentleman 3]

I'm somewhat surprised to see people townreading both Lady 1 and Lady 8, much less call one of them "by a good margin the towniest Lady in the game". I can't say I agree.

Given my read on Lady 8 it pained me slightly to see Gentleman 5's introduction, but I think that he might lean closer to town than scum for me despite his partner and immediate pairing.

[Gentleman 3]

299 was the post that had me town reading Ghost (L8) due to the careful consideration in weighing the different gentlemen

it's not actually too necessary for her to do given she'll get an invite no matter what, but I think the effort put into it is genuine and shows she cares about producing a pro-town pairing

I think your interpretation is off. That post doesn't read to me like a careful consideration of options when it comes to gentlemen; I see it more as just a readslist on every gentleman who had posted at the time. That distinction might seem meaningless to you, but I think it matters for the point you're making—a careful consideration of which gentleman would result in the most pro-town pairing I might consider town-indicative, but viewed as a simple readslist that point goes away. In fact, in my experience I've found that readslists structured in a manner that take effort to mention every single player (or at least every player that has posted so far) often come from scum forcing themselves to give reads.

This isn't to say that I take that post as being hugely scum-indicative, or even all that moderately scum-indicative. I just disagree with your interpretation of it as a major point towards Lady 8 being town.

[Gentleman 3]

Although, while I'm on the subject and while I have the quote right here, I could make an argument for this being scum indicative:

299 was the post that had me town reading Ghost (L8) due to the careful consideration in weighing the different gentlemen

it's not actually too necessary for her to do given she'll get an invite no matter what, but I think the effort put into it is genuine and shows she cares about producing a pro-town pairing

"This thread is sorta hard to read through. I'm just gonna ISO the men and find my favourite cause that's more important atm!" <- my exact thought process

I do want the right one but also I felt like i was gonna be overwhelmed if I tried to do a full reread. So I just focused on the picking a mate part. Really I need to consolidate some feelings towards the ladies too.

It could easily be said that the mindset of finding the best dance partner is plainly more likely to come from scum rather than town, who might be more focused simply on figuring people out and then thinking about dance partners.

Of course, one could easily counter this by saying that Lady 8 talking about this mindset in the first place is towny given that she's being honest about something that might be considered scummy, but that's getting into WIFOM, which I don't care to go too deep into.

Again, not a hige point, just trying to talk more to get myself into the game and because I was asked to elaborate on this scumread.

[Gentleman 3]

G3.Sherlock what is your read on G6? Right now he is my only scum read and I kind of want him to face the instant death.

The artist formerly known as Scarf? I haven't gotten to his replacement yet in my readthrough. As for the first Scarf, I'm not sure I agree that his being new was faked. Just in general complex plots like that happen far less likely than people imagine, and specifically when it comes to him I could easily see his posts coming from a new player.

As a side note, I'm not sure if I should say this or not, but you were the quickest identity to figure out. You've got a "verbal" tic that's unique on the site that manifested itself fairly quickly. Sorry, I can't resist bragging.

[Gentleman 3]

I'm getting to the point in my readthrough where I'm starting to lose focus, so I think I'll take a break and come back later.

For now: Gentleman 5's a decent townread, as is Lady 4. In particular, I thought Lady 4's 424 was a fairly towny post. That sort of reaction, feeling of being overwhelmed and decision to focus on a small number of reads is, I feel, fairly natural for someone dropped in the middle of this game with tens of pages already posted, no partners to rely on and barely any ability to distinguish between players in the first place.

I think that my ideal dance partner so far is Lady Seal.

Interesting, I knew I had one of those and I also noticed myself doing it in this game. I am just surprised someone was observant enough to both identify it on my main and in this game.

It's pretty much the reason I started following along with this game in the first place. Although as I said, it was more out of personal curiosity rather than figuring out people's alignments.

That's not to say that it's not entirely relevant to alignments. For instance, it semed likely to me reading through that both Gentleman 9 and Gentleman 5's proposals to their prospective partners were because they recognized (or thought that they recognized) who the Ladies were. What exactly that information means I've yet to come to any conclusion on, but at least the premise seems likely to me at the moment.

[Gentleman 3]

Lady 2, I'd like to hear your thoughts on pairings. Both what pairings of the remaining people you think would be best, as well as any mechanical thoughts you have on pairings in general. For instance, earlier you said that we shouldn't pair the IC with scum; I'm interested to hear you elaborate on that.

G3(Sherlock) has given a nice first impression so I'm less inclined to want his slot out. TBH, I don't understand why he scumreads L8 so much and it's more like an argument that she isn't town.

I have a small number of reasons that stand out to me personally (and likely me alone) as being fairly scum-indicative. You're correct in that most of what I've talked about so far with regards to Lady 8 has been to explain why I disagree with other people's townreads on her.

[Gentleman 3]

Right, I'm caught up to where I replaced in, even though you're all posting about as fast as I'm reading. Only changes are a slight drop in my read on Lady 3, and a townread on Lady 5.

My stance on the Ladies is that Lady 4, Lady 5, Lady 6 and Lady 7 are all on the townier side while the rest are on the scummier side. Lady 2 is null.

I think I have less clearly defined opinions when it comes to the gentlemen, but I'll review in a second.

I think that my ideal dance partner so far is Lady Seal.

I would enjoy this.

I'd ask you right now, but I'd like to think about what I want the rest of the pairings to look like first. Regardless, I doubt that'll change my decision.

I would prefer Gent 7 left out over Gent 2 btw

I've been thinking about it and I think Gent 2 going after Tennis (G4) rather than searching for a partner on popping in is slightly more likely to be town than scum

I could agree with this.

[Gentleman 3]

I invite Lady 6 to dance

.


For some reason I can't shake the thought that the best partner for Gentleman 8 would be Lady 5, although I'm not sure I could really elaborate why.

Why is it that people seem to think that Lady 1 should be paired with him (if anyone actually thinks that)? Is our best metric for the partner of the IC someone who is townread, but not too townread? Because under those lines, I might actually put forward Lady 2 instead.

I'm also impartial to the plan that Gentleman 8 put forward himself of simply choosing an obscure townread that he feels he can hard defend. It's really up to him in the end regardless, unless we plan on leaving out our IC.

[Gentleman 3]

I think that people are ignoring Gentleman 6 as a potential option for being left out, and that they are doing so only because he is posting as opposed to G2 and G7, who have largely disappeared. Unless people are reading him primarily from his predecessor, I don't think that anything Gentleman 6 has posted so far elevates him all that much.

I can't really grasp G3's argument for Ghost 8 scum. It moreso seems like he just disagrees with reasons for her being townread (he's admitted as much)

Let me be clear:

what I've posted

so far has mainly been disagreeing with townreads. Not entirely, but mainly. That does not mean that my scumread is based only on disagreeing with townreads, merely that I have not said that much in support of myself yet.

[Gentleman 3]

Let me be clear: what I've posted so far has mainly been disagreeing with townreads. Not entirely, but mainly. That does not mean that my scumread is based only on disagreeing with townreads, merely that I have not said that much in support of myself yet.

But why?

Timing, mainly. I've been focused so far on catching up on the thread, trying to get a rough impression of everyone and elaborating loosely on any thoughts that might come up. I only went deeper into the Lady 8 scumread because I was asked too, and it was convenient to quote the post at the point that I was reading through. You're all posting about a half a page for every time I start one of these posts, so you'll understand if right now I'm trying to keep things somewhat brief.

There is also the fact that I'd prefer to wait, solidify my read and write up something more substantial as opposed to going all in, especially at a point where we can't even vote.

G3 why do you think Scarf (G6) is scummy?

Ha, I thought someone might ask this. I don't scumread Scarf, I just think that people are excluding him from consideration without very strong reasons. Of the three gentleman who seem the most likely to get left out (2, 6 and 7), I think they're all roughly equal.

That being said, recent events don't point in his favor for me. Lady 6 had a point that I agreed with as to Gentleman 2 perhaps being more likely town, and I think that Gentleman 7's recent post probably leans slightly town.

[Gentleman 3]

it's impossible to tell anyone's alignment from the pre-dance. Everyone with strong opinions at the moment are either arrogant or lying. I don't plan on focusing on trying to make any sort of claim that I know anything until we can start voting. I thought that was obvious. Or apparently there are some oracles among us.

“The ancient Oracle said that I was the wisest of all the Greeks. It is because I alone, of all the Greeks, know that I know nothing.”

I've never agreed with this "Day ones are useless" philosophy, personally. I think it reduces the behavioral side of Mafia in favor of only focusing on vote analysis or nightkills and such.

Ok you'll explain more later then when we slow down ya?
@G3

Yes. I'd planned to talk it over with Lady 6 first, as well as to hear more from Lady 8 herself.

Why are all the men so un-opinionated

I'd say I'm really only unopinionated when it comes to the unpaired Gentlemen.

[Gentleman 3]

Funnily enough, I just realized that I don't like any of the pairs we have so far.

[Gentleman 3]

Gents 6 and 8 still must be paired up, so it leaves Gents 2, 3, 4 and 7. We need three brave ladies.

Why does Gentleman 6 have to be paired? Actually, at the moment I think he may be the best Gentleman to leave out.

In any case, I don't think a Lady voluntarily choosing to not pair in order to get more flips is a good idea. Personally, as a group I suspect people who are already paired more than people who aren't, and anyone who would agree to that plan is already more likely to be town than not.

Funnily enough, I just realized that I don't like any of the pairs we have so far.

Do you mind if I ask which side of each pair is the unlikable bit? Or is it something inherent to the union itself?

Why not g3

I don't like either one of Gentleman 9 or Lady 3. Neither are overtly all that scummy and I suspect that G9 proposed to L3 more out of recognition than game reasons, but I still don't like either. Sans is the weak point for me in his pairing. I think that earlier I said that I townread him, but I think over time I started to realize that that was more a function of him simply posting a lot and having decent commentary. I don't think he's done anything truly town-indicative. And finally my thoughts on Ghost (L8) I've talked about already. As I'm trying to make clear, these reads aren't strong by any means.

So as for if it's the people or the bond, in the G9-L3 case it is because of both of them, so I suppose the pair itself is fine as I have a similar read on the members. For the other two pairs, however, I would've preferred if L7 and G5 could've been paired with different people.

[Gentleman 3]

If you scum read both players in a pair then you should like the pairing

As I said, I suppose the pair itself is fine.

Gent 3 all I see is non townreads and scumreads from you the only person I remember you townreading is the person you want to partner with.

Got anything else to share?

If that's all you see then you must've missed a lot. I don't blame you, the game is moving fast. Among the ladies, Earth (L5), Salad (L4), and Riku (L7) are townreads, obviously along with Seal (L6). Rosalina (L2) is null to me so far, while the rest (1, 3, 8) all lean slightly on the scum side.

Among the Gentlemen I have less townreads: really only Gentleman 4 and Gentleman 5. Both Gentleman 2 and 7 I feel have been slightly towny recently, although only slightly. As a group I find the Gentlemen less readable and less towny than the Ladies.

[Gentleman 3]

I realize this may be hypocritical of me to say, but I think we should hold off on more offers until the Prince (G8) has decided.

[Gentleman 3]

I realize this may be hypocritical of me to say, but I think we should hold off on more offers until the Prince (G8) has decided.

What do you think about my preferred method of using my invite?

(I mean, others can answer this too but yeah)

To sort your partner and then walk if need be? From what I know of the suicide mechanic in this game, it tends to hurt town far more than it helps it.

Sorting your partner is something that everyone should be doing anyways, so I'm not sure if I fully grasp the nature of your strategy or how exactly it differs from the "normal" way of playing the game. If you mean to say that you'd prefer to

only

focus on your partner and work from there, I would be opposed. I know that you said you're slowly reading your way through the thread, but I'm still waiting for thoughts from you on events that have already happened rather than real-time commentary. I think scum frequently like to use real-time chatting as a cover, personally, and for good reason—it's effective.

I’d like to talk more with you directly about the removal of G6 btw, G3

Sure. What would you like to talk about?

[Gentleman 3]

From what I know of the suicide mechanic in this game, it tends to hurt town far more than it helps it.

Have previously won this game by doing explicitly this.

Past results aren't always indicative of future performance. That being said, I don't feel incredibly strongly one way or the other, to be honest.

Sure. What would you like to talk about?

If you’ve gone into depth or substantiated your SR there more fully could you link me to it/quote it? If not, could you run through it for me? My impression of the new G6 has been pretty consistently town and I don’t want him eliminated

Sure, let me clarify the nature of my read there: I currently think Gentleman 6 is the best choice to be left out not because of material that he

has

posted that I find scum-indicative, but because—compared to the other unpaired Gentleman in the game—I have the

least

amount of reason to townread him. (Some may take a lack of town-indicative material as itself something that is scum-indicative, but that's really more of a philosophical debate).

Lady 6 had a minor reason to townread Gentleman 2, and his proposal to have some Ladies voluntarily refuse pairings to have more flips (which would presumably include himself being left out) I see as a minor reason to townread him. Gentleman 7's brash attitude seems on the surface to be unconcerned with survival, which I consider to be town-indicative.

When it comes to Gentleman 6, I just don't see reason to townread him. He's been around, but so far I feel he hasn't given many thoughts which have struck me very much. There was his point about how he thought his predecessor's replacement was towny, but I don't feel as though anything came from that; if he came to conclusions based off of people's reactions there, I haven't seen them. He's been chatting a bit with people, but I haven't seen anything that strikes me as incredibly in-depth or only likely to come from town.

[Gentleman 3]

I kind of "like" as much as you can like someone that wants you dead.

Welcome to me and G3.

I mean, based on enjoyment of interacting with someone I'd take you over Gentleman 2 or Gentleman 7 any day. It's just that this cruel game we're trapped in forces me to discard any sentiments I might hold and play to win.

[Gentleman 3]

Okay, so regarding the last bit, I thought him leaving that there as a thing to see if people would call him up on it was townie, and I don’t think he could do that immediately without ruining the entire thing. And since I asked him about it, I liked his explanation and I think he did ask a follow up to Ghost (L8) as the other person who reacted.

I can try to go through his ISO and explain a bit more when I’ve thought he’s townie so far, but if I do that can you also talk about the other gents: like why not Sans (G1), Tennis (G4), Dust (G5), Anime (G9)?

I'm going to be honest—I barely understand the pronouns you're using to refer to things in the first line of this. I

somewhat

understand what you're referring to, but not strongly.

I can't want any of G1, G5 or G9 left out because they're already paired up. That leaves G4, whom I think has has some pretty decent thoughts so far; 144, for instance.

if he came to conclusions based off of people's reactions there, I haven't seen them. He's been chatting a bit with people, but I haven't seen anything that strikes me as incredibly in-depth or only likely to come from town.

You haven't seen them because I have yet to post them.

I am trying to avoid the thing where one spends a long time catching up, only to have missed a lot of "in the moment" play, where I think is where I get my best data these days.

That's fair, but you'd also have to recognize that it's fair for me to scumread you given this, no?

I think I don’t like Salad (L4) or Ape (G7) and I’d quite like them to pair

Lady 4 is one of my strongest townreads. Honestly, I think I would've preferred if Gentleman 4 asked her; I'd like to see her survive.

[Gentleman 3]

I'll be honest I thought the same thing.
But apparently despite playing almost no games recently G3 picked up my typing gimmick which is pretty mean.

If you're interested, the biggest help to figuring you out was a specific phrase that you used. It's not unique to you, but it gave me a pool of suspects which is actually the most important part.

The thing about basically

any

sort of investigation (not just finding alts) is that once you have a small number of suspects, narrowing down between them is typically fairly easy. The hard part is in

locating a suspect

in the first place; that is, the hard part is even knowing where to begin out of the huge initial possibility space. Once you have a group of suspects that you can be relatively confident in, most of the hard work is already done.

So from there it was the tic that let me narrow it down to specifically you. Honestly, I suspect that whatever you're thinking of might not even be the same thing that I'm talking about; people's language habits tend to be fairly unconscious to them.


I realize this is a pretty irrelevant tangent but if it wasn't clear I find this whole subject really interesting, so stop me if I start talking too much about it.

[Gentleman 3]

i want gentleman 3 to figure out who i am and then look cool smoking a pipe while bragging about it

[Gentleman 3]

Ok I know G3 said he was waiting until later to develop scumreads more in-depth but his continued insistence on finding people to die based on having the least to townread them on really really bothers me. It's so fence sitty and IMO pointless.

Could you clarify on how you think it's "fence sitty"? It's not as though I'm refusing to take a stance; quite the opposite, really. I

am

taking a decisive stance. It's just that my stance is based on "negative" reasons rather than "positive" reasons, so to speak.

[Gentleman 3]

Do you not have access to a private thread with him?

[Gentleman 3]

Ok I know G3 said he was waiting until later to develop scumreads more in-depth but his continued insistence on finding people to die based on having the least to townread them on really really bothers me. It's so fence sitty and IMO pointless.

Could you clarify on how you think it's "fence sitty"? It's not as though I'm refusing to take a stance; quite the opposite, really. I

am

taking a decisive stance. It's just that my stance is based on "negative" reasons rather than "positive" reasons, so to speak.

It seems like an excuse to fall back on if your "scumreads" flip town
Like "oh they just didn't show their towniness they should have done better"
Fence sitty maybe not the right term but I don't know what would be better

I try to avoid blaming other people when I'm wrong on someone, especially the person that I was wrong on. It's not conducive to self-improvement.

Regardless, I'm still not sure I really understand. I don't get what the material difference between that sort of excuse and someone saying "I guess I was wrong" or "Wow they played so scummily" if one of their more positive scumreads were to flip town.

Why is it that you think that my "style" (for lack of a better term) of reads is more likely to come from scum? I feel I should also say that it's not as though I've chosen to form reads this way; if I had picked up on more positive reasons to scumread an unpaired Gentleman, then I would. I haven't, and so here I am.

[Gentleman 3]

One thing I have observed from previous secret alt games is that players still fall back on their common biases. Just as in any regular game, the people who are bad at expressing themselves, the people who are "weird": they tend to be the first to go. People who are well-spoken, funny, or otherwise likeable tend to stick around regardless of the rest of their behavior.

As I've said before, this is part of the reason why I think people may be townreading Gentleman 6, or opposed to his being left out. I personally think he's much better spoken and less abrasive than either Gentleman 2 or Gentleman 7, and I imagine that everyone else would agree.

I myself

have already told him that I enjoy interacting with him more than I do either of the other unpaired Gentleman and would prefer to keep him alive if I had reasons to do so.


It's really easy to convince yourself that someone who isn't great at speaking, who has truly unorthodox thought patterns, or who is otherwise just awkward is scum. It's why the same people get eliminated early game after game. It's very easy to understand what I'm saying, but I think it's a lot harder to truly internalize that we all have biases against getting rid of people we like interacting with and recognize how that might shape your opinions. I don't claim to be much better than anyone else at it, but I think that recognizing it is an important first step.

[Gentleman 3]

I'd also add it's rather hard, at least for me, to get strong scum reads at this point in the game. Most players can and choose to play in a fairly lowkey fashion (no one even has to vote yet), and that makes it hard to get positive reasons to scum read someone. The best thing to do imo is to just look at who isn't doing town things.

that's probably why usually one of the low posters ends up going out in pre-dance

This is combined with the fact that, if you look at the players sorted by post-count, it's practically an even split with Ladies being the top half and Gentlemen being the lower half. I'm not surprised that my reads on the Ladies are more defined than on the Gentlemen—they've probably got a combined double the number of posts.

[Gentleman 3]

heh

i honestly don't understand why anyone thinks lady 6 is town. tbh she's the most likely to be scum among the ladies, from what ive read

if i had to choose someone currently unpaired to leave out, it'd probably be gentleman 4. need to think about this a bit

For the record, I think that I have stronger reasons to townread both Lady 4 and Lady 5 over Lady 6. I simply think that I'll be better able to solve with Lady 6.

That's not to say that it's not entirely relevant to alignments. For instance, it semed likely to me reading through that both Gentleman 9 and Gentleman 5's proposals to their prospective partners were because they recognized (or thought that they recognized) who the Ladies were. What exactly that information means I've yet to come to any conclusion on, but at least the premise seems likely to me at the moment.

I have no idea who Ghosty 8 is under the mask.

Fair. I considered the hypothesis more likely for Gentleman 9 than for you. There was always a bit of a discrepancy between who I know you to be, who I would expect you to recognize and immediately pair with, and who Lady 8 is. That's all I'll say on that front.

[Gentleman 3]

There once was a darling Miss Seal
Who gentlemen pursued with a zeal
In came a Detective
With a different perspective
And the Lady's heart he did steal.

[Gentleman 3]

In entered the Lady numbered three
Who sought to expand her family
But her dance; it was set
So her problems she'd forget
And instead take up poetry.

[Gentleman 3]

I don't think the "he wrote his posts before entering the game" theory is a real good one

i don't think he wrote his posts before replacing in, i think he was following along closely enough that he had genuine reads prior to replacing in (and he just happened to write about them, regardless of his alignment)

he said he was following it. he claims he wasn't forming reads though, he was just trying to identify people. i don't entirely believe that, but it's why i don't care about his replace in so much as how he's going to form reads down the line

A few thoughts on this. The first: this accusation could be made about any replacement, even ones who claim that they weren't following along. Do you have any specific reason to believe that it is the case when it comes to me? If not, do you hold the same reservations about the other replacements?

Second: I think we would both agree that it's not reads

themselves

that people are read off of. How one forms reads, how one justifies them, and in general how one talks

about

their reads generally, I would say, make up the content by which someone is judged. With that in mind, if you agree that the idea that I wrote posts before replacing in is absurd, wouldn't you agree that the concern that I had reads before I replaced in is superseded by the things I've written

surrounding

those reads afterwards? And of course, that's not to mention the more real-time interactions I've had with people.


I don't know. I'm reminded in some sense of a concern that I believe Lady 3 brought up, that people who "appear competent" might secretly have great scum ranges. I've experienced that exact paranoia myself before in a previous game, and I had to overcome it before I could move forward and town would eventually win. I don't think the concern is

unfounded

, although I would say that in the current site-meta it's on the less probable side. To my knowledge, at least, there are few players currently playing known for their outstanding scum games. I won't bother to comment on what I think of my own ability as scum; if someone doesn't trust me, they wouldn't believe me anyways.

[Gentleman 3]

Hi Mr. tsundere.

Let me know when your dere-dere side is ready to try and understand my POV.

To my knowledge, I haven't been ignoring you. I've never agreed with the philosophy I've occasionally seen where people ignore their scumreads. Apologies if I've missed something you said.

I'm unsure if this is what you're implying, but I feel as though I should say that thinking that someone is the likeliest candidate for scum and not trying to understand their point of view are not the same thing. They're almost opposites, actually.

What exactly would you like me to hear?

Unfortunately I am just assuming the worst in regards to most people in this game and what they would be capable of doing as scum.
Although that should be the way mafia is played to be fair.

I can't say I agree, but it's probably not a super relevant discussion to have.

[Gentleman 3]

i'm not saying it is the case, i'm saying it's why i'm not very interested in your replace in thoughts because if you are scum you probably did form your reads prior to replacing in

I feel as though you've got something backwards here. You're not interested in my thoughts because

if I'm scum

they're prefabricated; very well, but if I'm scum then all of my thoughts are fabricated regardless. If I am town, they are quite real. So as I was trying to get at earlier, what is the specific reason to believe the scum case over the town case?

Moreover, I feel as though you ignored my second point there. Even if one granted I was scum and that my reads were set before I replaced in, the things that I wrote about them were

not

set before I replaced in, and it is the things written about reads that are relevant to one's alignment

far more

than the reads themselves. With that in mind, would you not agree that

even if

one granted that my reads were prefabricated, that the posts I made would still be just as alignment-indicative?

I seem to have mistaken you for a player who likes to townblock and sync up, my request is retracted. I was hoping to have you convince me of my own townreads (minus the one on your slot for what I hope is an obvious reason) and see if we couldn't get you a better feel for my play in the process.

I'm not sure if I should feel insulted here or not, but I get the vague feeling that I am being insulted.

I'm not really sure what to tell you. I'm perfectly willing to hear anything you have to say out, but that doesn't mean that I have to agree with it. I have no animus against you nor reason to want to scumread you; quite the opposite, really, as I've already told you.

I'm finding it hard to match up your reaction here with what I've actually been saying to you.

[Gentleman 3]

I feel as though you've got something backwards here. You're not interested in my thoughts because if I'm scum they're prefabricated; very well, but if I'm scum then all of my thoughts are fabricated regardless. If I am town, they are quite real. So as I was trying to get at earlier, what is the specific reason to believe the scum case over the town case?

Moreover, I feel as though you ignored my second point there. Even if one granted I was scum and that my reads were set before I replaced in, the things that I wrote about them were not set before I replaced in, and it is the things written about reads that are relevant to one's alignment far more than the reads themselves. With that in mind, would you not agree that even if one granted that my reads were prefabricated, that the posts I made would still be just as alignment-indicative?

Hi, Lady 1 here what's up? You don't mind if I just step in for a second do ya? I think you're the one missing a key factor here, maybe both of you. Let's assume you had thoughts before replacing in. Now, I don't agree that this is a good line to go down but since we're going down it already let's entertain the thought. The key point is, if you had thoughts before replacing in regardless of what role pm you got they're going to come from a townie outlook because you don't make reads specing as scum you make them as town.

So in theory, no you couldn't really gather much off those posts. I think this is a really bad angle to go down, and I probably wouldn't have said anything if you weren't trying to put focus on the statement itself.

No, I understand this perfectly fine. I suppose I'll try to boil my main points down to two questions to keep it as focused as possible:

1. What is the specific reason to believe that I personally (as opposed to any other replacement) am scum who replaced in with prefabricated thoughts?
   
2. What is the extent to which one believes that these prefabrications go, and thus the extent to which my posts would thus be non-alignment-indicative?

If I had more energy right now I'd go into another long tangent about repackaging (one of the four main methods of resolving cognitive dissonance), but I don't, and besides my tangents are mostly self-indulgent anyways.

[Gentleman 3]

Brilliant.

I think the main people to immediately look at to think about associations would be Lady 6, Gentleman 2, and Lady 4. Lady 6 obviously for the immediate and continued request to dance, and G2 and L4 for these comments respectively:

You can take G2 over me. The important thing is to identify the winning town-town pair. My survival isn't necessary.

G7, why do you think letting G2 pair with L4 instead of you is better than letting yourself pair with L4?

Real answer? I invest a lot of time and effort into a game, and I don't trust L4 to keep us alive long enough for me to have an impact on the outcome even if she's town.

[Gentleman 3]

I've private messaged him.

Lucky me, two dances.

[Gentleman 3]

Lady 6 obviously for the immediate and continued request to dance, and G2 and L4 for these comments respectively:

I'm not sure whether you're suspecting them or clearing them.

Me neither, at the moment. They're simply the persons of interest given Gentleman 7's interactions with them.

[Gentleman 3]

AAHhhh! Vampire!!

I think in scum!Lady 4's shoes, I'd have picked Gent 2. There was no good reason to pick Gent 7, and I think she may as well try to grab some towncred to keep herself alive. Like if she took Gent 7 and they paired up as a 2 scum pairing, there's no way they make it far and that's 2 scum down. At least this way she has somewhat of a bus under her belt.

That being said, I don't think I lean on her being scum I don't think. Will have to look back and stuff

I'm not quite sure about this, even if I might agree with you on the conclusion. If we assume Lady 4 is scum and Gentleman 2 is town, picking G7 (thus leaving G2 out) and immediately getting eliminated is the same number of town and scum dead as picking G2 and leaving G7 out, but with the added benefit that scum doesn't immediately flip, denying a lot of information to town. Thus, I might say that if Lady 4 were scum, she would have a lot of incentive to pick Gentleman 7; and that's not even mentioning that I believe many people were prepared to townread Gentleman 7 if he started putting more effort in.

I don't think the idea of bussing here is a strong one; I think that this choice points to Lady 4 town.

[Gentleman 3]

If we assume Lady 4 is scum and Gentleman 2 is town, picking G7 (thus leaving G2 out) and immediately getting eliminated is the same number of town and scum dead as picking G2 and leaving G7 out, but with the added benefit that scum doesn't immediately flip, denying a lot of information to town.

I think I wasn't as clear as I could've been here, so let me elaborate. Assume that Lady 4 is scum and whoever she's paired with will always be the first to go. Regardless of whether she picks Gentleman 2 or Gentleman 7, one town will end up dead and two scum will. The difference is that by picking Gentleman 7 she would deny town the immediate scumflip, and if we no longer assume that she is

always

the first to go, I think that a decent argument could be made that Gentleman 7 could have turned his slot around. Thus, I think Lady 4 would be incentivized as scum to pick Gentleman 7, and thus I don't think she's scum.

I didn't in the first place, but Gentleman 7's flip I would say is even more evidence in favor of her being town.

[Gentleman 3]

It's possible I'm a victim of confirmation bias, but I still feel as though the best vote at the moment may be Lady 1/Gentleman 6.

Lady 1 probably made the most attempt of anyone to get Gentleman 7 paired. At least, to memory.

Spoiler:

Lady 6 don't break my friend Gent 7s heart. You should dance with him

Lady 6 don't break my friend Gent 7s heart. You should dance with him

I unironically support this btw

Killing number 7 is a huge mistake
doing so would make my heart ache
All you need to do is look at the signs
and you'll realize his posts are fine
In time you'll find the real fake

For Gentleman 6, it's actually a conspicuous

lack

of mention of Gentleman 7. As near as I can tell, there isn't a single direct reference to him in G6's entire ISO. He's even excluded from his readslist with basically no comment:

Spoiler:

What are your reads?

At this point, I am trying to sort by pairs, and not solos. I'm working on a formalized reads list and then intend to denote which half of a pair I like better/worse... even though mechanically at this point it doesn't matter!

Since my last townreads list:

Guy 3 is town. (I suspect I both know who he is, and don't know who is is at the same time and it vexes me)
Guy 2 is town. (Is nobody going to address that he's playing so carefree he didn't even notice I'm not the player who was having issues, even though I explicitly made it a part of my opening moves)
Lady 5 is town. (Do I really need to explain this one?)

I have decided to add Lady 1 (tenative on PT sort), Lady 7 (Mostly for her early scumread of my slot's replaceout in post 336, amusingly enough), and Gentleman 1.

Most of those are from re-reading the part of the game that happened before I replaced in.

That gives me a town block that looks something like this (Assuming we see G2-L4):

Gentleman 9 - Lady 3
Gentleman 5 - Lady 8

Gentleman 1

-

Lady 7

Gentleman 8

-

Lady 5

Gentleman 3

-

Lady 3

Gentleman 6

-

Lady 1

Gentleman 4 - Lady 2

Gentleman 2

-

Lady 4

Essentially, I don't think that "proper" scumhunting is all that productive right now. I'd rather just find three town-town pairs and mass-hemlock the rest. (And I am mostly including myself in the hemlocking, not the three)

[Gentleman 3]

What is your thoughts on my current adventure of Gent 9 and Lady 3?

Lady 3 I feel relatively good about, although I'm unsure if I could really substantiate that with something concrete. Gentleman 9 I've never really townread, but over time I haven't really felt anything agenda-driven from him. Taking a quick look at his interactions with Gentleman 7, it felt fairly natural and non-partnered on first glance.

As a side note, I like Lady 2 more, having seen some of her comments directed towards Gentleman 7.

I dont think g6 is scum though, but i sus l1.

g6's lack of mention of g7 could purely just because low post count + replacement

It's certainly possible, but I feel it's conspicuous given that I believe Gentleman 7—as near as I can tell—is the

only

slot which he fails to mention. He talks much more about and to the next three lowest posters, Gentlemen 1, 2 and 3.

[Gentleman 3]

i reverse my read on shrlock g3 after realizing that a bunch of his stuff is wall fluff, and i talk about gorilla 7, in terms of I don't think he's town, but I think he's more town than 2.

Yeah this

It's a really easy—perhaps even generic—criticism to make against any sort of "long" post that it's all fluff and no substance, but I don't think that it could actually be substantiated in my case. With the exception of some poems and some brief interludes talking about identities, I'd say that I've been extremely focused on the game and avoiding fluff.

this "progression" is also 400 posts apart

Again, you had no reason to change the read.
I scouted your entire ISO, those 3 posts are your only mentions of the flipped wolf player.

And your read on him lines up with exactly how I expect wolves to treat their partner.


But you are just talking around me saying I am misrepresenting you.
It's actually crazy.

I actually disagree that a random read change across a large number of posts is indicative of an agenda. Actually, I'm of the opinion that scum take much more effort to pay attention to their own reads and avoid inconsistencies. It's really natural for townies to change their reads suddenly, especially on players that they haven't mentioned or thought about in a while. This exact progression was why I said earlier that Gentleman 9 seemed to not be partnered with Gentleman 7: his progression there seems fairly natural to me.

I'm not commenting on how wolves might treat their partner, moreso on I expect town to change their reads versus scum.

[Gentleman 3]

With the exception of some poems

i thought the poems were some of your better posts

I'm glad to hear it, but I'd prefer to hear you talk about where you think I've been posting fluff rather than content.

[Gentleman 3]

A storm is brewing, not the game literally just real life.
If I lose power and can't post for 10 minutes, remember I love all of you.

A ten minute break? I hope you're ready to catch up on about fifty pages. Don't worry, I'll start keeping a summary for you.

[Gentleman 3]

so like, I feel like your posts focus on "describing what's going on" rather than "actively responding to what's going on" in fact, going back to the ISO, I find that you have 1 set of clear opnion here, which is you don't like any of the pairing, which I opposed to since you were scumreading my pair and you agreed

but furthermore concentrating on L8-G5 pair, note explicitly the context was that G5 chose L8 because he thinks he can read L8 well. Based on your reads on L8, you should like that pairing rather than dislike. This makes me think that even when you are "describing what's going on", you're not actively interpreting

Basically every single sentence in the post that you quoted is me giving my own opinion. I'm finding it difficult to match that with the idea that I was "describing what's going on".

Why should I like that pairing rather than dislike it? It was a pairing of someone who I townread and someone that I scumread. I would agree with you if they were both people that I scumread, but they aren't. What is it about my Lady 8 read that means that I should like that pairing?

[Gentleman 3]

I believe the "RIP" was in reference to Ankamius' self-requested one year ban.

[Gentleman 3]

Basically every single sentence in the post that you quoted is me giving my own opinion. I'm finding it difficult to match that with the idea that I was "describing what's going on".

Why should I like that pairing rather than dislike it? It was a pairing of someone who I townread and someone that I scumread. I would agree with you if they were both people that I scumread, but they aren't. What is it about my Lady 8 read that means that I should like that pairing?

hmm I didn't explain clearly I guess.

I quoted the post because I find it to be one of the few posts where you actively form an opinion.

Then I argue that your opinion doesn't match up with the facts.

Personally, when someone asks me to substantiate an accusation about their posts (a lack of content), I don't give as an example a post that specifically

doesn't

match up with the accusation. That's just me, though.

In particular, you weakly scumread L8. But G5 specifically said that he thinks he can sort L8. Therefore based on that context, there is no reason not to like that pairing.

I don't understand the logical connection between your first point and your second point. It's an utter non-sequitur to me. What is it about Gentleman 5 saying that he can sort Lady 8 that should mean that I would like that pairing?

[Gentleman 3]

As town what's a reason you wouldn't like a pairing? That one is town and the other is scum, and that the town townreads the scumpair and doesn't leave in endgame. This is not such a scenario.

Gentleman 5's claim that he believes he can sort Lady 8 has no bearing on me. Even knowing people's identities, I have no reason to trust his read over mine or to trust that he will eventually come to agree with me.

It seems quite reasonable to me to say that just in general someone you consider being town paired with someone you consider to be scum would be a reason to dislike a pairing, no? Regardless of their read on each other, it is an unfortunate situation where their death would result in the loss of one of your townreads.

Personally, when someone asks me to substantiate an accusation about their posts (a lack of content), I don't give as an example a post that specifically doesn't match up with the accusation. That's just me, though.

Personally, when someone asks me to substantiate an accusation about their posts (a lack of content), I give example of the only post that may be construed as containing content, and show that its largely invalid and matches up with the accusation. That's just me, though.

It just seems somewhat strange to me to give a singular post that supposedly doesn't match up with what you're saying as opposed to giving the multitude of other posts that would apparently show a lack of content.

I think I'm mostly done talking about this, unless you'd like to continue.

[Gentleman 3]

Gentleman 5's claim that he believes he can sort Lady 8 has no bearing on me. Even knowing people's identities, I have no reason to trust his read over mine or to trust that he will eventually come to agree with me.

It seems quite reasonable to me to say that just in general someone you consider being town paired with someone you consider to be scum would be a reason to dislike a pairing, no? Regardless of their read on each other, it is an unfortunate situation where their death would result in the loss of one of your townreads.

i disagree with this 100 percent.

Do you believe that I believe it? If so, it seems like your point that it is inconsistent for me to dislike the pairing of Gentleman 5 and Lady 8 is really just a philosophical disagreement rather than any sort of discrepancy.

Gentleman 5's claim that he believes he can sort Lady 8 has no bearing on me. Even knowing people's identities, I have no reason to trust his read over mine or to trust that he will eventually come to agree with me.

It seems quite reasonable to me to say that just in general someone you consider being town paired with someone you consider to be scum would be a reason to dislike a pairing, no? Regardless of their read on each other, it is an unfortunate situation where their death would result in the loss of one of your townreads.

Stuff like this is why I have a problem with Gent 3 because it's

skipping/leaving out basic mafia theory/talk to make an excuse on your own reasoning

and Gent 3 is obviously smart enough to not be this narrow minded

Sorry, could you elaborate? I'm not sure I understand what you mean by the bolded.

[Gentleman 3]

Sorry, could you elaborate? I'm not sure I understand what you mean by the bolded.

It's okay not many can understand my genius allow me to enlighten you.

The way you're talking is in an extremely selfish and coincided viewpoint and I don't think given what you've shown that's how you really think or act. Saying things like 'I have no reason to trust his read over mine' when this entire format of a game is figuring out partners and working together in a basic game of mafia is...just odd. Are you telling me you've never been convinced on a read before? No, because that's silly. So you trying to come in here and say that's why you're gonna vote a pair is...bad

I think there's a disconnect here, although I will concede that what I said there does sound selfish and conceited. That was a mistake.

Gentleman 5's point—as near as I can tell—is that I should be fine with one of my scumreads pairing with one of my townreads, because Gentleman 5 believes he can read Lady 8, and there exists the possibility that he will eventually come to scumread her and leave the dance.

My

point is that this fact has no bearing on my opinion of whether or not a pairing is good or not. To me, any pairing of one of my townreads and scumreads is a suboptimal one, because getting rid of the scumread necessarily also kills the townread.

It's as simple as that. I'm not trying to claim that I'm better than Gentleman 5 or anything of the sort. I'm also not using this as the justification for voting that pair, as you seem to claim in the last sentence—the only pair that I've indicated any intention I might vote today so far is yours, with Gentleman 6.

[Gentleman 3]

Gentleman 5's point

Gentleman 9's point, that is.

[Gentleman 3]

G1.Nagito I made you a pokedex to summarize the game

Spoiler:

You mistook my predecessor for the original Scarf, Gentleman 6's predecessor. My predecessor posted a few times and then slipped and was force replaced, Gentleman 6's was the newbie who was overwhelmed.

I like it, though.

[Gentleman 3]

Phoneposting, not much time here.

@gentleman 3,

towards the end of pre-dance, why were you so concerned with what you thought was my read on you? not a whole lot of people agreed with me, iirc (and the people who agreed with you didn't exactly think you were scum for it, so...)

I wouldn't say concerned, exactly. It's hard to explain. I suppose it's that I felt that the point was based on a few cognitive biases, and I wanted to talk about them: namely, Lady 3's point that I brought up earlier, and a misapplication of a heuristic where the point you made is considered more likely to apply to me than any other replacement, when there's no reason that that should be the case.

I don't know. When someone says something that you disagree with to or about you, even if others are unlikely to agree, don't you feel a need to at least say

something

?

[Gentleman 3]

you know

I feel like that makes G9 just town now

I don't really see that being faked in any world

L3/G9 is my new preferred end game pairing.

100% serious

I completely agree. I'm not 100% pre-ordercommitted to them being the endgame pair, but I'm confident they're both town.

[Gentleman 3]

VOTE: G6/L1

I don't get why we are townreading G9 for assuming that there is only one vote out per dance. It seems consistent with his earlier philosophy that mafia want to pair with people that they can work well with, but I don't find it town indicative and it's more like it explains his earlier pushes. Still need to re-evaluate his slot as a whole, but that's what I'm thinking.

And also with Gent 4 saying I just can't read him, and Lady 4 kind of vouching there

What?

The only situation I can imagine in which Gentleman 9 isn't corrected on his assumption in the scum PT is if the third partner is also a chronic low-poster like Gentleman 7 was, and there has been basically no strategy discussion between them. I don't really see any person which that would apply to.

i don't think scum go out of their way to get a partnership with one particular town player, to the exclusion of all others though? that's not how people operate, in my opinion

so present to me the scenario in which lady 6 is town and gentleman 7 pursues lady 6 like he did and how that makes sense (disregarding my "intense love of seals" theory please)

Unfortunately my response to this will probably be meaningless to you, but knowing who Gentleman 7 is, that kind of random play is completely within his wheelhouse. One of my working theories is again that he assumed (and assumed incorrectly) who Lady 6 was, and that was why he decided to troll her.

As Lady 6 said, I am considering the possibility that it was a S/S move, but I don't think it

only

comes as a S/S move.

[Gentleman 3]

The only situation I can imagine in which Gentleman 9 isn't corrected on his assumption in the scum PT is if the third partner is also a chronic low-poster like Gentleman 7 was, and there has been basically no strategy discussion between them. I don't really see any person which that would apply to.

L7.blue said she would deliberately allow G9 to continue to misunderstand the setup so that he is looks townier.
I have employed similar tactics in previous games. Well I wanted to but it was a 3p scumteam and my other partner explained something and I wished I could delete teammate's posts in the scum PT.
I don't think all players have that kind of style to them.

Admittedly that hadn't occurred to me, but I'd say it's the exception rather than the rule.

[Gentleman 3]

I'm here, massive apologies for my absence.

[Gentleman 3]

I'm here, massive apologies for my absence.

Do you want to elim gent 2/lady 4?

I always townread Lady 4 and so would've preferred a different pair, but I've already seen that they're both already dead.

Unfortunately it also appears that the lovely Miss Seal will be leaving me to be replaced, and relying on her was a large part of how I planned to catch up on the game.

Damn.

[Gentleman 3]

Anyone around to chat?

In terms of updates I can't think of many to give. I mentioned it to the old Miss Seal in our PT, but I haven't been scumreading Lady 8 for a bit. I feel as though something about reading her posts in real-time rather than as I was catching up made them better. That sounds a little ridiculous, I know, but it is true—it's possible that it might just be a difference in the older posts themselves versus newer posts. Regardless, I had planned (and still plan) to do a review of her posts just in case the real-time versus catch-up distinction actually was real, because I'm hesitant to turn around quickly on something that was one of my stronger reads when it's hurt me in the past.

[Gentleman 3]

As for the current competing wagons, I don't think my vote actually matters right now. I

would

vote L1/G6 really only for plurality reasons with the full expectation of further/re-evaluating in the time between now and the deadline, but as far as I can tell we're not using plurality, and from what I can tell a majority seems somewhat unlikely in the time we have left. I think that's probably a good thing—I'd like to give Lady 2 the time that she requested to get back and play. It seems we're all a little indisposed at the moment.

Like I said, that vote would pretty much only be for plurality "future-proofing" reasons: I'd actually say that I'm fairly ambivalent between the two wagons when I really think about it.

[Gentleman 3]

It really does eat me up inside to not be able to give this game my all and give all of you the level of effort that you deserve. It really does bother me. So again, sorry.

[Gentleman 3]

When you left, you were still scumcasing me hard, iirc.

I would say that this is fairly inaccurate. There are few people ever whom I scumcase hard. I

did

have the impression that your relation to Gentleman 7 was among the worst, so perhaps that's what you're thinking of.

As for some of your more recent posts I can't say that I've gone over them with a fine comb, but what I have seen didn't leave me thrilled. In the first place I found your self-towncase to be fairly weak: I believe that the general consensus was already that Gentleman 6's inexperience was genuine, so arguing for such isn't exactly a grand undertaking. As for whether original Gentleman 6's inexperience is

town indicative

is another thing another, and one that as far as I can tell you didn't address, just assumed to be true.

What else?

Unfortunately for me (as well as for you, if you're town), even knowing who you are still doesn't help me.
It's curious to see your progression on me, from what I've skimmed. Back in the first days after I replaced in I got the impression that your townread on me was fairly strong, and from the rest of your ISO it appears to drop over time to the point where now one of the main things you wish to do before you die is to case me. Perhaps it's vanity, but I am curious to hear more about that progression.

[Gentleman 3]

Are you familiar with the play of a certain gentleman named Empire many moons ago

I'd prefer to give away as little information about who I am as possible, so let's proceed as if the answer is no.

[Gentleman 3]

Something I wanted to ask earlier -- Do you think you have a decent chance of knowing my identity, and if so, was that before your original scumread on me? I'm curious

I have an impression of who I think you are, but I haven't gotten around to confirming it yet. Regardless, it hasn't really factored in to my read on you.

the dude who is garbage at scum and hates playing it?

never heard of him

what about him?

What happened to the shadow puppets, by the way? I liked that avatar.

who do you think is scum, gentleman 3?

I honestly don't know. My best answer for you is really just "the people who aren't in my townreads". That'd be Gentleman 1, Gentleman 4, Gentleman 6, Lady 1, and

maybe

Gentleman 5 and Lady 2.

[Gentleman 3]

I'll edit a tinfoil hat shadow for you, if you want. I love the amount of art this game has produced, and I feel some desire to contribute to it.

[Gentleman 3]

In a typical game I would never do this, but I honestly think that leaving is my best play here. Saves us time and discussion for something that's likely inevitable. Having checked, Lady 6 is also okay with doing so, without which I wouldn't consider it.

As I've said, I'm more than a little ashamed of my failure of effort this game, and so I probably won't be revealing who I am after the game is over, selfishly.

It's been quite nice playing with you all.

[Gentleman 3]

Over Reichenbach Falls we go, Miss Seal.

Leave Dance

[Gentleman 3]

I mean, I'm pretty sure G3 and G2 got who I was, but not the opposite.

Among other things, you're one of the only ones on-site that talks about yomi.

Gentleman 3 talked a big game but then gave up when the going got hard, I want to give him a hug and then a noogie while the hug is going on.

Did I talk a big game? I don't believe I ever made any claims to superior ability than anyone else. People often accuse me of this, and seeing it in an anonymous game makes me think that it's more about the way that I talk rather than any element of my reputation (although that would certainly still contribute were I not anonymous).

In fact, I didn't give reads before leaving because I didn't consider anything I had to say well-informed enough to be worth saying.

[Gentleman 3]

Anyways, good game and well played all. As I said before, I did enjoy myself a lot – you're all quite the colorful cast of characters, and I'd play again with any of you in a heartbeat.

Thanks to FakeGod for modding.

I guess more I expected you to BE a big game.

Still think you could have posted and salvaged your slot.

Sorry to disappoint. I think those days of salvaging impossible situations are gone for me.

[Gentleman 3]

This was fun to semi-watch!

Agree!

~f

Oh, it seems all the great old-timers are popping around. I really was lucky to replace into this game.

G3, I'm curious if guessed my identity correctly at any point?

Also who was Gentleman 7 and what was their deal with seals

No, actually. You were fairly well-hidden, I'd say. Your name came up, but I never really searched for a definitive answer on my lovely partner.

Funnily enough, I loosely suspect that Gentleman 7 thought that you were me.