Smuggler's Port [Game Over]


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Post Post #630 (isolation #0) » Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:27 am

Post by Something_Smart »

So I have a bit of reading to do
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Post Post #632 (isolation #1) » Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:36 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Hi Titus \o/

I'm town this time :]
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #634 (isolation #2) » Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:43 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 45, GuiltyLion wrote:So in my mind, I'm thinking about whether the PA should claim and at what point.
Oh I'm a dumdum, this didn't even occur to me.

I might be misremembering but is there a reason the PA should not just claim and direct the inspections?
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Post Post #635 (isolation #3) » Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:46 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 74, Hel wrote:Also, someone should really vote for the Tomboy Daughter already to give her some cover.
Spicy
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Post Post #637 (isolation #4) » Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:49 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I hope I don't change my mind about that being a good idea in the next 20 pages then.
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Post Post #638 (isolation #5) » Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:06 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 412, Not Known 15 wrote:I am the Port Authority.
Ha. My first thought when you said PA claimed was that it was NK15 and he claimed without asking anyone if it was a good idea.
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Post Post #640 (isolation #6) » Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:00 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Not per se but he does often have strong opinions on mechanics and usually he doesn't care what other people think.
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Post Post #641 (isolation #7) » Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:02 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 549, Titus wrote:
In post 546, Datisi wrote:what is agency capturing?
It's where scum buddy a town so effectively they work for the scumteam. It word comes from agency capture in the law.

Someone who is agency captured is a townbeard.
I love this metaphor.
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Post Post #649 (isolation #8) » Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:18 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Wait I just read the rest of NK15's claim post. He doesn't want to out the TD, so he's going to risk outing the TD. Brilliant.
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Post Post #676 (isolation #9) » Sun Jul 05, 2020 3:59 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

It's also kinda funny that I was (I assume) included in that, given that I had not posted since the game started.
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Post Post #702 (isolation #10) » Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:31 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 695, Menalque wrote:Did you read my plan yet? Thoughts?
I'm sure I read it. In the matter of whether I can remember it and whether I can remember that you proposed it, I'm afraid I am 0 for 2.

Give me one moment.
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Post Post #724 (isolation #11) » Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:43 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

Okay I reread your plan in (nice, btw). I think that a world where the tomboy daughter gets a majority vote, official or unofficial, is not a world we're winning in anyway. Letting NK15 veto executions might work but it probably won't? If we did, he'd have to come up with the right percentage of the time to randomly veto a non-daughter execution (probably 1/15).

Your plan doesn't fix the main problem, which is the chance of the daughter being caught with tea (or equivalently, the chance that NK has to reject an inspection because the daughter is on it). That chance should be zero. Not sure whether inspecting one or two people is best, but either way NK should have full control over who is inspected. Inspecting someone who is likely tomorrow's execution isn't really bad because like I said if that person is the daughter, we were in hot water anyway.
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Post Post #745 (isolation #12) » Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:07 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 736, Menalque wrote:is NK choosing between the two scummiest people on each day the best way to avoid executing the tomboy daughter without giving info on their identity?
The only way to avoid executing the tomboy daughter without giving any information away is for NK to randomize something to execute. The more randomness involved, the less information we give away. So if we offer up two and NK randomly picks one, that's twice as good as if we just execute one and pray.

... Except that the one who survived is not going to disappear from people's radars, and the above effect becomes weaker the more times someone survives being on the stand. The net effect is it either screws up our scumhunting by forcing us to treat the scummiest living player as conftown, or it makes us jump through a lot of hoops for a benefit that's not nearly as great as it seems.
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Post Post #771 (isolation #13) » Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:25 pm

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In post 746, maxwell wrote:S_S's intro is meh. I really really really dislike that he put all his effort into talking about mechanics with no commentary on anyone in the game when there's plenty of material to go off.
Hello, nice to meet you! I am sorry that you dislike that.

I caught up on my phone while on a car ride home from a vacation (don't freak out, I wasn't driving). I harbor no illusion about my ability to formulate, remember, and coherently express reads in such conditions (my ability to do so while catching up is dubious in the best of situations).

On the other hand, I can, and will, give detailed mechanical discussion without having a great sense of the game's history. In fact, if anything, this will serve as a jumping off point for engagement going forward. I can't say I'm surprised that you don't like it-- there's usually SOMEONE-- but I can assure you it is both in good faith and for the best.
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Post Post #772 (isolation #14) » Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:29 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 750, Menalque wrote:Okay, but that person isn’t necessarily always going to still be scummy right? Like, let’s say there are duelling wagons, and we’re fairly sure there’s a scum in there but that it’s unlikely both are scum

In that case, if we flipped the scum, the second player would likely be off the concern list the second day while we hunted for partners
I hold a pretty simplistic view of consensus reads for mechanical purposes, and it assumes that this doesn't happen.

Sure it could happen, but I think it's rare. Bussing is a thing. I don't think it's a significant enough factor to affect my calculation, especially given how subjective it is.
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Post Post #853 (isolation #15) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:30 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 775, maxwell wrote:All right but I'm running out of patience for the aimless durdling most people produce when commenting on the setup.
I think the conversation is almost definitionally not aimless. It has a clear aim which is to answer a set of questions about optimal mechanical play; this is probably clearer than a lot of other discussions this game in terms of what the point actually is.

If you personally don't understand or care for it, that's fine. But that is not the same as it being objectively irrelevant.
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Post Post #858 (isolation #16) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:39 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 855, Iconeum wrote:i'm absolutely dead serious when i say i'm baffled that *literally anyone* is taking it seriously
what, um

what exactly makes you think that NK15 does that as a joke?
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Post Post #859 (isolation #17) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:40 am

Post by Something_Smart »

This is all very weird. Hel's claim WAS obviously a joke, because it was satirizing the way that NK15 wanted to control the game (ironic, since his request for control didn't cover the one thing that he NEEDS to control).
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Post Post #862 (isolation #18) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:45 am

Post by Something_Smart »

You may not have meant to, but you did say he'd do it as a joke. To take something seriously means to believe that it is serious-- NOT to believe that it was true. We can accept that there's a possibility NK's claim was fake, while still recognizing that it was a real claim and not a shitpost. And that is what you appear to have an issue with-- us saying that it isn't a shitpost and that he really meant to make people think he's the PA.

(And FYI, it surprises me that you can't see that Hel's claim is clearly a shitpost. Is my explanation of why sufficient or would you like me to go more in detail?)

What exactly is your stance?
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Post Post #863 (isolation #19) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:48 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 860, Iconeum wrote:i said i wanna talk about why someone would lie about it in the first place (if he doesn't turn IC on D2)
Sure, we can talk about this.

The answer is, they wouldn't! There is no conceivable benefit to lying about this, unless you are scum and you are so convinced that you will be executed on day 1 that you will do this to avoid it. So assuming that NK does not feel that way (and I would like to believe he gives himself more credit than that), he would not lie about this.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #869 (isolation #20) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:04 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 865, Iconeum wrote:But I don't see the problem you have with me not believing that claim from NK
Not believing the claim and not taking it seriously are two very different things.

It sounds like you are taking it seriously, but not believing it. And you're having trouble understanding why people are believing it?

Even though there's every reason for the real PA to claim there, and I expect NK to know this, and there's every reason for the real PA to counterclaim if it's fake, and nobody has, and there's no good reason for any player, including the tomboy daughter, to fakeclaim it, and I expect NK to know this, and the claim can be confirmed tomorrow anyway, so there is little damage in assuming it is true.

Is that enough of an explanation for you?
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Post Post #875 (isolation #21) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:10 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 872, Iconeum wrote:why the hell do you think i'm fighting for that claim here???
I don't know, honestly. You should have just come out and said it; there was no downside to doing so.
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Post Post #883 (isolation #22) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:19 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 876, Iconeum wrote:i am *not good* with mechanics and was fishing to see what i would need to do here
That's fair. I'm glad that I was able to get the point across to you that counterclaiming was right.
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Post Post #900 (isolation #23) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:58 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 898, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Keeping my vote here for a bit.
"A bit" being "the duration of Day 1", right?
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Post Post #903 (isolation #24) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:08 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 884, maxwell wrote:Okay, now you've set me off, so let's do this. Literally your only conclusions in and were "buhh maybe we should follow the clear?" Which, in a general sense is unfortunately correct but hardly some startling insight and not worthy of your smarm. The blind deference to the clear also encourages passivity from town in talking about who should be inspected, which a distressingly small number of people have actually weighed in on. Even if people disagree with me I think they really should be talking about who they want to see checked. Also I can't see limiting the inspection checks to 1-2 players straight off the bat as anything but objectively pro-scum, in a game with an extremely limited number of executions it's necessary to find a way to narrow the pool and everyone fretting and whining about exposing the TD is forgetting our first goal here is to be catching scum, removing a handful of players as suspects isn't a big deal
because that's going to happen anyway based on what the PA decides
. I'm not really worried if the scum have a 1 in 5 or 1 in 6 guess at endgame. As it is checking 1 person means we'd get 5 eliminations and 4 cop checks to find 2 scum out of 3 in a pool of 15, which...actually, if I'm doing the math right, those are fairly good odds. I might might talk myself into this but I still thing having a larger check on day 1 at least accelerates the game at a fairly small added risk.
First of all, the question was more specific than "should we follow the clear." There are a lot of different options-- for both the execution and the inspection, we could ignore the clear completely, or let the clear dictate exactly what to do, or come up with several possible options and have the clear make a decision between them, or come up with several possible options and have the clear choose randomly between them.

I do strongly believe that the PA should be deciding who gets inspected. This is because having the daughter inspected is game-destroying, and we have the capacity to inspect more than one person at a time, so the odds of the daughter getting inspected randomly are greater than the odds of the daughter getting executed randomly.

As for the PA deciding who gets executed, well, in a perfect world we could just have Icon decide the execution as well, but this has two problems. One, that we are ignoring all of the collective scumhunting capacity of the rest of the town, and two, that there will be nothing for anyone else to talk about and thus the game will likely stagnate.

You are probably right that we can be a little more aggressive in the inspections in the early days, but going above 3 doesn't make sense, because if we find one scum in a group of 4, we don't even have time to kill them all. Like, you said that a larger group helps accelerate the game, but I don't really see what finding tea in a group of, say, 5 does to accelerate the game. It's really easy for searching for the scum in that group to throw us off-track really quickly, but we kind of are forced to do it or otherwise we just wasted that information. It also gives scum plenty of time to prepare the gamestate for after the scum in that group has been found, if they even are.

I think a group of 3 would be reasonable today. The thing is, even if we clear 2 people every day, that's still a ton of information. (Probably more information than we even need, and therefore more information than we should give away.) So that's why I think 1-2; that gives us about 6-8 clears over the course of the game which should be plenty, and helps us narrow it down a lot if we do find tea.
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Post Post #910 (isolation #25) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:31 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Let's see a VC before we get ahead of ourselves.

I think the best way forward here is for Icon to pick a group of 2-3 to inspect. To minimize info leak, they could maybe do it randomly, or semi-randomly (exclude an unstated pool of townreads, and randomize from among the rest), but I'm okay with either. (Of course, don't offer justification for any player's inclusion/exclusion.)
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Post Post #913 (isolation #26) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:32 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 909, maxwell wrote:I think even with a group of 4 though, it shouldn't be TOO hard to scumhunt in that group & it's not like we can't potentially re-check people in a group to help winnow it down (especially as they're basically a "safe" check at that point anyway).
That's true, we can re-check. I'd probably be okay with 4 if people thought that was better.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #928 (isolation #27) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:12 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Hel's claim was a joke. Ico is uncc'd.
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Post Post #962 (isolation #28) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:03 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 960, Moment wrote:"you should stop focusing on this townie who has done something incredibly outrageous"
:igmeou:
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Post Post #966 (isolation #29) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:06 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 963, Hel wrote:What do you think about what I said, Azelf? Why do you think scum!NK15 makes that play?
To spew anyone who clearly believed him as not the daughter.
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Post Post #969 (isolation #30) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:09 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 965, Moment wrote:Oh? Is there something you'd like to say? Yes, I think NK15 is town, if that wasn't clear.
The point you're arguing is not something anyone would dispute. Obviously, if we knew NK was town, we would not be wasting time getting distracted by him. The reason he is getting attention is not because he is high-profile but because he is scummy, and so you should be explaining your reasoning for why he is not scummy, which you've mostly skipped over, instead of pushing people to focus on the quieter players when they still scumread NK.
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Post Post #986 (isolation #31) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:24 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 980, Moment wrote:Not really. I think you misunderstand me. My point is not to argue that town specifically doing outrageous things should not be lynched for it, which is obvious. My point is that things of this nature come from town more often than not, and time and time again towns hyperfocus on them to their own detriment.
Yes. Fortunately, we can go more specific than "NK did a weird thing and therefore is more likely town"; we can look at the actual thing and determine whether there's town or scum motivation.

And this one happens to have clear scum motivation, and dubious town motivation.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #987 (isolation #32) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:25 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 985, Moment wrote:Soemtimes, people are unable to see the pattern of mistakes that they consistently make, game after game.
Sure. And the best way to help them see it is to kill them every time they do it and then blame them for the loss :P
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #999 (isolation #33) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:37 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 990, Moment wrote:That being said, it really is a question of mindset – does NK15 truly believe that what he did helps town? That it was a good idea? I think the answer is yes.
This is basically contingent on him being someone who's played for almost three years and made two thousand posts and yet cannot recognize an obvious joke, complete with a funny gif and a joke reply.

Not only that, but you'd have to believe that he studied the joke claim enough to determine it was likely true, which no doubt would also entail looking at the context and the reactions.

And yet, despite all this planning-- and the thing was meticulously planned, since he had a whole spiel prepared-- he never thought to crumb that his claim was fake, in case he was counterclaimed.

Alternatively, you could just believe that he's taking an ill-advised dive for his teammates, probably against their wishes, to help rule out possible daughters. Since the game lasts a fixed number of days, he might do this if he thought he'd be executed at any point, and thought it would benefit his team.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1031 (isolation #34) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:00 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Alisae smells.
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Post Post #1034 (isolation #35) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:03 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Oh it's nothing personal. Just now you can't say that you haven't read any of my posts :P
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Post Post #1045 (isolation #36) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:50 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1042, notscience wrote:Oh boy I do so love a rousing game of everyone follow one person and have no individual thoughts whatsoever

It’s why I play mafia over Simon says
Man, if only middle grounds between extremes existed.
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Post Post #1049 (isolation #37) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:16 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1046, notscience wrote:I’d love a middle ground however I’m busy pointing out what scum-nk is trying to get everyone to do because if I don’t we’re going to let him live to be a question mark down the road instead of a flipped scum today!
I guess that's fair, but it's unreasonable to make fun of all IC-directed actions just because NK is suggesting that the IC direct everything.

The middle ground I have in mind is where we can execute whoever, but Ico determines unilaterally who will be inspected.

Alternatively, I don't hate the plan of us choosing two potential people to execute and having Ico randomize one to kill, but I think that's probably more trouble than it's worth.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1054 (isolation #38) » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:44 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

"Direct scum motivation"
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Post Post #1089 (isolation #39) » Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:19 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1073, Iconeum wrote:if you make it 4 i'd put datisi/maki/SS/ + either NK (if we don't exectue him - and with Tea found he's probably first to go anyway) or maybe someone like Moment/notscience in it if we execute NK
You should make no comment on whether this was an honest suggestion or a WIFOM attempt, and you should unilaterally pick who will be investigated. It can be arbitrary; it's actually even better if it's random (you can exclude people you townread if you so desire, just do not name the people being excluded). It should be 3-4 people, though this is up for debate and you should decide the number before you choose. It should obviously not include the daughter. Other than that, everything you say, including this, gives away information about who the daughter might be.

I'm sorry; I know it's hard to not be able to discuss your reads, but you have to do it. Ask FG for a confessional PT if you want to talk about reads.
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Post Post #1121 (isolation #40) » Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:58 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1102, Moment wrote:I was in the same situation as NK15 once upon a time, and I got out of it only through a grueling few days of constant argumentation and pushing a wagon on scum over myself.
Link?
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Post Post #1123 (isolation #41) » Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:04 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1104, Radical Rat wrote:Misclowns are much more dangerous than a sub-optimal inspection in this set up
Say what? Inspection is the only advantage we have, otherwise the game is the scumsided hellscape that Moment described. Most games have town executions because no town has perfect read accuracy, especially on D1 when we have no information from the mechanics yet (aside from Icon coming out).
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Post Post #1124 (isolation #42) » Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:06 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1108, Not Known 15 wrote:And that is something town simply doesn`t forget.
Of course it's not! I would never fail to share reads by ACCIDENT ;)
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Post Post #1125 (isolation #43) » Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:07 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1109, Menalque wrote:I have a question about the mechanics, namely: is it actually net beneficial to have investigations or not?
It had better be, otherwise this setup is so scumsided it isn't worth playing.

And I think it is. The assumption is that scumhunting will be more effective than daughter hunting.
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Post Post #1127 (isolation #44) » Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:26 am

Post by Something_Smart »

We also have the means to be absolutely sure of 3-4 people being town. That doesn't sound better to you?
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Post Post #1131 (isolation #45) » Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:43 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Scum do not benefit more than us.

Right now, assuming random executions and random guessing, we have a 21% chance of executing two scum in five tries, and scum have an 8% chance of guessing the daughter. That gives us an EV of 20%.
If we clear 5 townies, we would then have a 42% chance of executing two scum in five tries, while scum would have a 13% chance of guessing the daughter. That gives us an EV of 37%.

(I could calculate the numbers for other sizes but the point is the same.)
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Post Post #1172 (isolation #46) » Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:24 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1171, username wrote:a boatload of tells linking them to they partner
Do these exist? I think that if scum NK15 has left very few associative tells.
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Post Post #1193 (isolation #47) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:21 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Inspect: Wheat
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Post Post #1198 (isolation #48) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:05 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Actually, I think I understand it.
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Post Post #1208 (isolation #49) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:39 am

Post by Something_Smart »

God-king Iconeum has spoken.
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Post Post #1353 (isolation #50) » Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:16 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1269, Alisae wrote:you only needed to counterclaim if you were 100% on NK15 being scum.
really really bad take
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Post Post #1357 (isolation #51) » Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:25 am

Post by Something_Smart »

VOTE: Maki
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Post Post #1367 (isolation #52) » Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:29 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Oh hi Menalque.
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Post Post #1370 (isolation #53) » Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:39 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I'm not going to fool you as scum...
Spoiler:
because I already HAVE fooled you! mwahahaha
*cough* sorry, what?
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Post Post #1376 (isolation #54) » Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:00 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1373, GuiltyLion wrote:I used to have a surefire tell on S_S where if he scumread me he was town, but that stopped working as of late when he townread me as scum
I think it stopped working when I stopped trying to read you lol.
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Post Post #1403 (isolation #55) » Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:36 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Why did you not confirm yourself Icon
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Post Post #1412 (isolation #56) » Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:51 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1405, GuiltyLion wrote:am I missing something? I don't see why confirming himself there matters
I mean there is absolutely zero reason not to
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Post Post #1418 (isolation #57) » Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:11 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1414, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Last day's lynch was ass. Can we do better today?
No
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1419 (isolation #58) » Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:12 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1415, Radical Rat wrote:Okay, absolutely bonkers idea here, buuuut

Iconeum/NK15/notscience scumteam.
Inb4 this is a PA soft
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Post Post #1422 (isolation #59) » Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:18 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I don't see what was towny about Moment if NK is town.
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Post Post #1429 (isolation #60) » Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:24 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I mean if NK is town. It's not exactly GL's logic just I don't see why scum-Moment would not defend town-NK like that.
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Post Post #1433 (isolation #61) » Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:27 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1431, Menalque wrote:Whereas scum!moment wouldn’t defend scum!NK because..?
That's an awful lot of faith in the town to not inspect/execute them if NK goes down anyway.
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Post Post #1516 (isolation #62) » Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:38 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1502, NorwegianboyEE wrote:My ratio for likelihood of being scum in this pool is about
80% likelihood it's Datisi
19% Likelihood it's NotScience
1% Likelihood it's Moment.
These probabilities should not add up to 100%.
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Post Post #1517 (isolation #63) » Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:38 am

Post by Something_Smart »

And also, they're awful, but that's a different issue.
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Post Post #1552 (isolation #64) » Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:14 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1533, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 1529, Titus wrote:I think you're agency captured at this point.
This is just a really cheap and scummy buzzword. Honestly Titus, i’m starting to scumread you too.
?

Literally not a buzzword that has been used in any game other than this one.
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Post Post #1569 (isolation #65) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:46 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1567, maxwell wrote:Did Titius just townslip?
No.
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Post Post #1622 (isolation #66) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:57 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1583, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Only Menalque TR's them and i don't think his reasoning is adequate.
His reasoning being that he's played about a million games with Datisi and knows him like the back of his hand? That's not adequate?
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Post Post #1633 (isolation #67) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:03 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1584, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I think people are afraid to push Datisi purely because Mena vouches for them.
Afraid of what? Executing town?
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Post Post #1635 (isolation #68) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:04 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1549, Datisi wrote:can you talk more about this? what is your read on me?
Moment is not towny enough to deserve the 1%, mostly. Moment's whiteknighting equity is massive if NK is town.

I don't really have a read on you but I'm very comfortable trusting Menalque's.
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Post Post #1636 (isolation #69) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:04 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1634, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Yeah thanks, you're real insightful SS.
It was a genuine question. What exactly do you think people are afraid of?
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Post Post #1643 (isolation #70) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:27 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1641, NorwegianboyEE wrote:It would be very dumb and risky for scum to go against him here.
Oh I see, you think that SCUM are afraid of him, whereas town just respect him.

That makes sense, and seems accurate. Wouldn't that mean that Datisi's town, though? Since it's not likely that scum would refrain from bussing their partner because they were afraid of Menalque-- they would either just capitalize on the opportunity to keep Datisi alive, or they would defy Menalque to harm his credibility when Datisi flips scum.
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Post Post #1645 (isolation #71) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:01 am

Post by Something_Smart »

So how does being afraid factor into it then?
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Post Post #1650 (isolation #72) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:15 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1614, Menalque wrote:So should S_S although I know that will fall upon dead ears
Actually, no. I've been known to vote early in the day if someone specifically requests it for the purposes of sorting, and you echoing Titus's request certainly makes it legitimate enough.

VOTE: NK15
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Post Post #1659 (isolation #73) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:36 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1656, kuribo wrote:are you seriously voting outside of a group that has at least one confirmed scum
I am voting inside of a group that has at least three confirmed scum.
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Post Post #1662 (isolation #74) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:38 am

Post by Something_Smart »

More to the point, I'm voting to oblige Titus and Menalque, who would like to see votes because they think they can draw analysis from it, and not because I expect NK to be executed or think pushing to execute NK would be healthy for the gamestate.
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Post Post #1663 (isolation #75) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:39 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1660, username wrote:I just wanna reiterate that I find it EXTREMELY scummy in this setup to step back and say "well I know there's at least one scum in that group but I don't want to take a stance on any of them"
I read Moment as the opposite alignment from NK. Is that not a stance?
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Post Post #1666 (isolation #76) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:42 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I appreciate the implication that I can stand to be on the fence because I don't have certain sensitive parts that would normally cause that to be painful.
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Post Post #1667 (isolation #77) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:45 am

Post by Something_Smart »

If I were to force a stance it would be, well, forced.

I think it's pretty evident that I'm most open to killing notscience out of the three, given that I'm sheeping Menalque on Datisi and I want to sort Moment by flipping NK first. But there doesn't seem to be a need to rush that, especially since notscience is the leading wagon.
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Post Post #1673 (isolation #78) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:18 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Why would they refuse to take an investigation? Then they just get executed.
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Post Post #1674 (isolation #79) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:19 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1669, Hel wrote:Something_Smart is one of my favourite players on this site.
Aw you're gonna make me blush and I don't even know if Azelfs are capable of that.
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Post Post #1684 (isolation #80) » Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:55 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1681, Moment wrote:I seriously considered refusing to ship wheat and may have done so if the day went on for longer.
How To Get Yourself Killed In One Easy Step
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Post Post #1711 (isolation #81) » Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:20 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1691, Iconeum wrote:Give me 1 good reason scum!NK chooses to lie and fake claim like that, and in the process has a high chance of comitting seppuku
because it spews people as not the daughter. come on, we've been over this before.
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Post Post #1712 (isolation #82) » Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:22 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1708, Datisi wrote:can you walk me through this? specifically why you think it isn't tvt. is there anything else besides "if nk15 were to flip town, moment looks like scum wk-ing him"?
Not really, plus Moment was in the inspection bracket after all. Of course it's not impossible, I just think Moment's reasoning is so flimsy that if NK is town it has good odds of being a TMI.
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Post Post #1755 (isolation #83) » Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:52 am

Post by Something_Smart »

*raises hand*
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Post Post #1812 (isolation #84) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:34 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1793, Iconeum wrote:do you really think scum are gonna be fake claiming like NK did?
Then we get a bonus conftown and people can stop worrying about him, and he's obviously not daughter so we don't lose anything.

Also it just occurred to me that if we find tea in a pool of 3 it's autowin. So we can afford to throw a third person in if there's one that clearly isn't daughter.
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Post Post #1814 (isolation #85) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:36 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1810, Iconeum wrote:Norwee and SS go on wheat
You should add a third person. Mathematically, if we find tea in a group of three, we execute one of the three while checking Moment or Datisi (if NS is town), and then we execute the scum in Moment/Datisi while checking one of the remaining two, and then we execute the scum in the other group.

It's autowin as long as the daughter isn't guessed.
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Post Post #1816 (isolation #86) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:38 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Right? Say the scum is Datisi/S_S

Execute NS, check NK/Norway/S_S - tea found
Execute Norway, check Moment - no tea found
Execute Datisi, check S_S - tea found
Execute S_S - win
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1817 (isolation #87) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:39 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1815, Iconeum wrote:i don't see a valid reason to investigate NK at all
That's fair, but there must be SOMEONE that you are okay with revealing isn't the daughter? It benefits us to clear more people and we can add a third person here without any risk of diluting the results.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1819 (isolation #88) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:41 am

Post by Something_Smart »

It's beneficial for scum to add a third if that third could have been the daughter and it got ruled out.

So, that's why you should pick the person least likely to be the daughter.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1820 (isolation #89) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:43 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I mean look at it this way. We have to use the investigation mechanic. It benefits us more than it benefits scum.

Right now we have the chance for a free cop result. Unless you accept that using the investigation mechanic (on not previously investigated players) is not worth doing AT ALL after today, there will never be a better opportunity to use it than now.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1823 (isolation #90) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:45 am

Post by Something_Smart »

You!
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1826 (isolation #91) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:47 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1821, Iconeum wrote:the way i see it is that if I give you a third name now, scum!SS has 1 extra name to cross off the PoE. He knows he's dead anyway.
And having an extra conftown isn't worth all that much imo?
On the other hand, if you add a scum to the group of town!S_S and town!Norway, we win instantly.

So surely you can find a name that I wasn't going to pick as the daughter anyway?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1827 (isolation #92) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:47 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1824, Iconeum wrote:excuse me?
You are arguing that the information it gives scum outweighs the information it gives town.

That is saying that it isn't worth it.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1830 (isolation #93) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:51 am

Post by Something_Smart »

You've decided on two investigations, and you're arguing that any further ones aren't worth it, because we have the best possible opportunity to get another investigation, and you aren't taking it.

Do you want me to go find my math post and repost it?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1832 (isolation #94) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:53 am

Post by Something_Smart »

What you are doing is you are giving up a large benefit to town to deny a small benefit to scum. And "large" and "small" are not vague concepts, they are actual numbers that I can calculate if you'd like. And even more you are in full control so subjectively you can choose the person least likely to be mistaken for the daughter, so the benefit to scum will be even LESS than the numbers say.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1833 (isolation #95) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:54 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1831, Iconeum wrote:i'm saying that we need to find a balance in confirming town as that information is critical to a scum victory, not that we shouldn't be investigating at all?
Specifically you're arguing that that balance will have been hit as soon as Norway and I are investigated, or at least it seems like that's what you're saying.

How many more people after us two do you think we should investigate?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1837 (isolation #96) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:57 am

Post by Something_Smart »

That's fine. Thank you for listening.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1838 (isolation #97) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:57 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1836, NorwegianboyEE wrote:We’ve got scum in either NS/Datisi.
And if we get scum in me/S_S then it’s basically ez win for town because only 2 scum need to die until D5 if i remember correctly. Or it was the last scum alive would guess the TD if their teammates die. One of those.
That's the idea, and it remains ez win if we add a third person to the pool today. Are you okay with that?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1847 (isolation #98) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:11 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I'm waiting until it's been decided if there will be a third person and if so, who they will be.

I guess maybe you volunteering would mean that you have to be? I mean ngl I thought Icon was softing you as daughter but like if you're the daughter this is now beyond salvageable.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1850 (isolation #99) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:48 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1849, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 1847, Something_Smart wrote:I'm waiting until it's been decided if there will be a third person and if so, who they will be.
It's you.
You and I are the first two.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1852 (isolation #100) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:55 am

Post by Something_Smart »

But not with Icon's blessing.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1854 (isolation #101) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:04 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1853, Radical Rat wrote:Don't need Icon's blessing.
...But I want it?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1881 (isolation #102) » Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:19 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

Hel get your grubby little hands off of my precious wheat.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1907 (isolation #103) » Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:33 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Because Hel is on it?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1909 (isolation #104) » Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:50 am

Post by Something_Smart »

And, there's no reason to open up the possibility for error if we don't have to?
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1911 (isolation #105) » Fri Jul 17, 2020 1:59 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Try to wagon me then.

I want to see how that goes, it will be interesting.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1925 (isolation #106) » Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:22 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Ship: Wheat
Inspect: Wheat
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1926 (isolation #107) » Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:22 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Kind of sad that the only reaction that provoked was from three conftowns.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1928 (isolation #108) » Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:23 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Well, NK's not conftown. But probably town.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #1932 (isolation #109) » Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:25 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Well, the order really didn't matter, and I wanted to be safe to make sure people didn't hammer before Hel moved off (and if I were still off, they were less likely to). And getting reactions when I was about to be conftown didn't really have a downside, until I got reactions from two other conftowns that threatened to derail the game further.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2092 (isolation #110) » Sun Jul 19, 2020 12:41 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2212 (isolation #111) » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:20 am

Post by Something_Smart »

.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2359 (isolation #112) » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:37 am

Post by Something_Smart »

.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2362 (isolation #113) » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:37 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 2360, username wrote:what if it's guiltylion and alisae and GL's trying to suss out of Moment is the TD
think about that one for two seconds
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
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Post Post #2513 (isolation #114) » Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:13 am

Post by Something_Smart »

VOTE: Datisi
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!

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