SIR Disease Mafia - Game Over!

[davesaz]

If the

discord

has more than one person remaining (started with 3 or more), you probably have scum in the group. Please act accordingly.

Mastina

if you're continuing to follow the game from the dead, you softed so hard it might as well have been a fullclaim.

Blair

it would have been nice to know if your strategy was to trigger the frail to identify infected. It would have been nicer to know who you thought that might be, perhaps narrowed down to a set of 3 or so.

[davesaz]

If the

discord

has more than one person remaining (started with 3 or more), you probably have scum in the group. Please act accordingly.

Mastina

if you're continuing to follow the game from the dead, you softed so hard it might as well have been a fullclaim.

Blair

it would have been nice to know if your strategy was to trigger the frail to identify infected. It would have been nicer to know who you thought that might be, perhaps narrowed down to a set of 3 or so.

qfpt

[davesaz]

i keep forgetting pisskop is in this game

Starting to catch up. Agree with this post. Don't remember who he replaced. Maybe it's significant.

[davesaz]

Also, scum, I will point you to the last time I was culted as my baseline response to being culted.

See: Mainstream Mafia II.

Hint: don’t cult me unless you want to lose.

This presumes that infected learn who scum are.

[davesaz]

boop

somehow my hoodmate got lynched? how and why?

Any more in that hood? Did you start there?
(this is probably asked and answered, I'm doing linear catchup)

[davesaz]

And Nhadia admits they like my logic on there being 1 Scum in Nhadia/Nero, yet says that this is just their playstyle???

Dave has a LOT of Non-Associatives spread out and in high quantities with a ton of people I am strongly reading as Town, but VERY FEW IF ANY with the people I am SRing. Ari has been active and dave has Non-Associatives with pretty much ALL the active players. That's a HUGE red flag. Nhadia is only a high TR based on Non-Associatives with Nero, but Nero is BLEEDING Town based on Meta AND my analysis. So it's natural that Nero could have just caught Nhadia and Nhadia did mention that they thought they found the key to breaking my system, except so did Ari, but their both wrong because there are no Non-Associatives between them.

I'm curious what you're calling non-associatives.

[davesaz]

For your reading pleasure @All:

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... Statistics

And I am WAY more emotionally balanced then I was before, which actually skyrockets my play because I was a chaotic mess before.

Fuck everyone if you doubt me.

Oh great, another egotist.

[davesaz]

Wow it took me all freakin' day to read up, and nobody commented on my comments?

No questions or comments about the discord (hood)?

[davesaz]

Oh great, another egotist.

I would like to apologize for the absolute gas lighting iv'e done of nero and quick. I obviously am not as egotistical as I've acted. I did get a bit carried away just to stir the pot, its my guilty pleasure tbh.

didnt mean to make the experience any worse for you dave.

Wasn't aimed at you.

[davesaz]

Anyone else in that discord group hood other than 5G and pisskop?
Who did it start out with? This is for the purpose of looking at earlier game posting.

[davesaz]

Reviewing the replacements, pisskop is Saudade. I was leaning scum there.

[davesaz]

ok do you know what a hunch means

Erm.. a well rounded rear??

No, that's a haunch.

[davesaz]

Thoughts?

Agree. Was kinda thinking a Scum in the hood would be too damning for Scum since there are only 3 OG Scum.

That's the logic by which scum would be in the hood. Never ignore a possible lead on scum.

[davesaz]

Why do people replace on an alt of themselves? That never has made any sense to me.

[davesaz]

VOTE: pisskop
Reading is doing something. So is taking my wife to fix up her botched self-haircut, buying groceries and fast food, and catching up on missed sleep from last week.

[davesaz]

Has it been revealed which of 5G and pisskop was original in the neighborhood?

[davesaz]

I was talking it over with my hood

[davesaz]

I’ve got nothing to say in the hood that I wouldn’t just say here

[davesaz]

Has it been revealed which of 5G and pisskop was original in the neighborhood?

what?

Seems a reasonably straightforward question. We had a flipped "neighborizer".

[davesaz]

Has it been revealed which of 5G and pisskop was original in the neighborhood?

what?

Seems a reasonably straightforward question. We had a flipped "neighborizer".

Who says they used their abilities?

That has no bearing on the question. The question is, who are the original members. If the answer is all of them that's fine.

[davesaz]

piss, 5g and jake are the hood members that I'm aware of.

They haven't confirmed it's the same hood, and pisskop has been evasive about it.

[davesaz]

someone mechanically Confirmed Ari as scum

The logic of this is what?

[davesaz]

and pisskop has been evasive about it.

or Ive asked you to clarify. so far as i know we dont have a neighborizor

Looks like I misremembered details of the flip. I saw friend and misremembered it as implying having the ability to invite.
Are you an original member of the hood? Is it the same hood as Jake? Is 5G also in this hood?

I don't know what you mean by "posturing". I don't know what that would mean regardless of who said it.
I'm asking questions to which I expect answers. Anyone who has been in a game with me ever knows that I expect answers.

[davesaz]

someone mechanically Confirmed Ari as scum

The logic of this is what?

Don’t like this react to the RT.

FoS

Yeah, I know you wouldn't recognize an intelligent question if you saw one. Ignored.

[davesaz]

Where am I?

I'm kinda TRing 5G for this, IDK.

Another thing that makes absolutely no logical sense.

[davesaz]

Nobody can be scum with me since I'm not but you just go on being silly.
VOTE: 5G

[davesaz]

20 hours 53 minutes approx.

[davesaz]

This game feels a lot like there are enough people acting anti-town enough that scum are having an easy time of hiding within the

reasonable

people.

I think a good FL wagon will be revealing.
VOTE: Flavor Leaf

[davesaz]

Nero why aren't you scumreading me?

im scum reading everyone. I'm p sure that im the only town here. There's also only 3 scum (5 if u count the 2 infected.) I kinda already laid out my thoughts in VOTE: 6046. V stupid q.

lol at the post link fail

[davesaz]

This game feels a lot like there are enough people acting anti-town enough that scum are having an easy time of hiding within the

reasonable

people.

I think a good FL wagon will be revealing.
VOTE: Flavor Leaf

What would an FL wagon reveal, O rational one?

Kinda defeats the purpose to say why.
What do you think about it?

[davesaz]

The whole thing is Alch is saying that gobble will look bad b/c I added in a oka quote. Why does gobble look bad unless oka is scum?

I’m not though. I’m saying you wanted to make Gobble look bad with his posts, and the oka post is in there because you thought it was one of gobble’s posts.

I can see scum trying to shove words into Nero's mouth.
I don't see a reason for town to push this angle.

[davesaz]

Nero is shoving words into my mouth, not the other way around.

You're the one trying to say that Nero including one Oka post means that he mistook that post for gobble. Unless I've misremembered how that conversation started?

[davesaz]

more directed @quick because quick is the one who decided to blow up the piss wagon near deadline

Interesting, if true.

[davesaz]

I know that wattage gives out heat, but my question is: why is that bad?

Because heat makes things expand and when they expand they tend to warp. Wouldn't do to have chips pop off the board.

[davesaz]

1:30 in the morning isn't the time of day I'm able to make sense of anything. But at least I've read up to here.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Dave

Or

VOTE: Ari

Either works for me rn.

Grow some brain cells please.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Hoctac
For all the avatar bullshit on 257.

[davesaz]

You're policy lynching a troll on D4 for producing yet more useless posts?

Nah, I have one lonesome vote, so this won't turn into a lynch.
If town would always be useful my "not really scumhunting" method of catching scum would work much better.
It is pretty reliable when the majority of town are doing the

right thing^tm

.

[davesaz]

more directed @quick because quick is the one who decided to blow up the piss wagon near deadline

Interesting, if true.

Was Quick the one who derailed the pisskop wagon? I don't have time to check rn. We have shopping to do and an 8pm curfew means that some stores close at 5pm for some inexplicable reason.

[davesaz]

I might want to ask @dave if he thinks Ari is Scum hunting. I recall dave saying I needed to grow some brain cells for wanting to vote between Ari and himself. But what gives? Is Ari Scum hunting or

is he just

pissed

disappointed

I see him as a suspect

?

Answer imbedded...
No opinion about Ari is implied.

And I recall dave saying not Scum hunting is a pretty reliable tell for catching Scum.

What am I missing @dave?

The obviousness of my townness, of course.

[davesaz]

What are your thoughts on A50s slip?

It's not a "slip", and it's town.

[davesaz]

So instead we lynch an infected and advance the scum wincon?

Does it really?

like I get the whole "its better to lynch the original scum than infected" argument but one of the town wincons is to lynch to infected so...

Truth.

[davesaz]

So killing original groupscum is essentially our main wincon, with those infected being secondary to it, and by a decent margin if you ask me.

True, but I'll definitely vote an infected over a townread. I trust my ability to townread over other people's ability to scumread, in many cases. There are notable exceptions.

[davesaz]

The only other time I saw you fake claim you were scum A50.

I'd bet the 20 or so games I've seen him do it as town against that any day.

[davesaz]

Ircher even PMed me earlier today to tell me how well he thought I was doing.

Your appeal to authority is quite misplaced. Something like this would constitute improper mod influence.

[davesaz]

Posskop never replied to me in the hood but I thought things over and I think Alchemist and poss are both alright for now.

Are you saying you're another member of the hood that Jake and 5G were in?

[davesaz]

I'm more awake than yesterday at 1am, but it's only because an urgent work thing came up.
Because it's an urgent work thing, I have been able to respond to stuff but no time to go further than that.

[davesaz]

Notes:
1. Based on memory of slot including predecessors. Specifically saying right now that
I made this list offhand without *reviewing* anything. Just copy/paste the player list and go.
2. See notes in <>
3. I don't do pushes. That's a style thing.

<conf to me>
davesaz

<town reads>
LicketyQuickety
Almost50
Nero Cain
Firebringer (Tchill)

<medium town>
OkaPoka (Miss Lynch)
pisskop (Saudade) <behaving town, but infected>

<weak town>
TrueSoulEnergy (Vecna) <needs review, can remember vecna more than TSE is a problem>
Nahdia (Elements)

<still having trouble remembering what they're *doing* => UNDECIDED>
Auro
Aristophanes
Alchemist21

<needs review to see if what they're doing is town motivated => UNDECIDED>
gobbledygook (farside)
CheekyTeeky (No lynch, Voted)

<scummy to me>
Flavor Leaf
Hoctac

Discussion:
1. It's not a contradiction at all to have infected in the 2nd highest TR list.
Need to keep an eye on infected though to see if any reads flip over time for
badly stated reasons.

2. There are at least 5 that I have to dive in order to really get anywhere.
Part of the reason for that is that Auro in particular has recently shown to be
good at making good looking posts / plays which are completely wrong, so in his
case wrong could be scum. Another part is because just when I think I have a handle
something different shows up and I'm just not tracking which ones of the A's is
showing differences and which ones aren't.

========================
We ran out of suitable breakfast for diabetics. Fast food it is, which the kids will love. Need to go to the home improvement store later to get wood for my sister in law's wheelchair ramp. Will I have time for those reviews? Dunno, if you see them then I had time.

[davesaz]

BTW not in order within categories.

[davesaz]

Part of the reason for that is that Auro in particular has recently shown to be
good at making good looking posts / plays which are completely wrong, so in his
case wrong could be scum.

Are you referring to Ircher's Mini Normal?

BTDT was what I was thinking about.

[davesaz]

I would like to see an explicit Hoctac read from everyone, preferably with reasons, ASAP.
The reason will be given later.

[davesaz]

Got reasons pisskop and Cheeky?
Progress 3/14.

[davesaz]

4 7/8 days till deadline.

[davesaz]

A50 is the strongest kind of meta (for me at least) and Tchill was consistently the most town posting player other than me.
FB doing nothing is unsurprising, I consistently scumread him for that, and I'm consistently wrong. I'm totally basing that read on Tchill.

[davesaz]

I'm about 90% certain that hood has scum in it.
Marking this post as the told you so for postgame.
If I'm wrong about Hoctac, then Pisscop is scum and the infected is staying silent because that's their wincon.

VOTE: Hoctac

[davesaz]

I'm about 90% certain that hood has scum in it.

Based on?

Basic design principles.

[davesaz]

Id keep you alive if you helped me but u arent so bye bye

So instead we lynch an infected and advance the scum wincon?

Sounds great.

Remind me why lynching infected advances scum wincon.
The way I read the setup it helps town not scum.

[davesaz]

Cheeky, can I just sheep you?

Please do.

Also A50/Nero not SvS.

Agreed!

And yay! =D
VOTE: Almost50

Sorry buddy. I'm not convinced by the claim issues but I want to see where this goes, and if your lynch gets us the associatives we need to solve the game, I'm in!

Why so exuberant about sheeping a bad vote?

[davesaz]

My answer to your question at Dave pertaining to myself was going to state exactly that! I don't think I am scumhunting well or very actively. I am definitely jumping on things as they appear. I am not reading back and making the cases I've promised. These are all facts.

Sadly, they don't make me scum, just underwhelming.

Well, they could make you scum and this could be lampshading (is that the right term?).

[davesaz]

5a. Town Win Condition: Eliminate the mafia conspirers and all infected players.
5c. Mafia/Infected Win Condition: Gain parity with the town.

-infected -> town win. +infected -> scum win. This is an extremely simple concept.

Now, if the inferior logicians around here are talking about this:

5b. Town Alternate Win Condition: Have half or more of all living players gain permanent immunity to the disease.

Even

if

there is an infected->immune path (which is not publically proven to exist)
having someone become infected could trigger the mafia/infected win condition if the immunity lags behind infection.
Which means it's

still

in town's best interest to lynch at least some of the infected.

Scum lynch
If not scum lynch, then infected
If not infected, then useless

Whatever we do, don't lynch useful town.

[davesaz]

You aren't confirmed anything.
I just got through posting that lynching scum is best.
I'm not voting you nor even attempting to wagon you.
And Hoctac is absolutely not super anything. I'm fed up with people town reading someone for doing nothing.

[davesaz]

Happy Birthday A50.

Fake L-1's and fake "omg you hammered"s don't work when the count is less than half the number needed.

[davesaz]

Even if there is an infected->immune path (which is not publically proven to exist)

There is - otherwise, why even bother with "Mafia can kill an infected player every night"?

Even if there is, it's immaterial when thinking about whether lynching infected is useful -- because for an infected->immune path to be useful they have to be infected first, which could trigger the infected wincon faster than the town one. Not to mention if mafia have other roles that can block cure/immunity...

It's best to lynch scum over infected, and infected over town. Like I've said several times already. I will shoot down incorrect theory on sight, it's my nature to do so.

[davesaz]

Hey Dave, maybe you can answer this post game but I'm curious: What plays did I argue in Boon's game that were *completely* wrong? O.o

The comment was intended to convey the idea that you are skilled at making reasonable sounding arguments for mislynches, generally speaking. Wrong in terms of mislynches being wrong for town, not wrong in terms of theoretically unsound or anything like that.

[davesaz]

I've thought Hoctac is scum from his first 10 posts. Perhaps a slight exaggeration, maybe 20. That read hasn't changed, and won't.
I don't really care that identical reads on Jake and 5G for identical reasons were wrong. Broken clocks are right twice a day...

[davesaz]

Give me a concrete example of why Hoctac is town, that isn't based on memeing / not giving a shit about the game.

[davesaz]

I took a brief look at A50's iso and I think he's town by posting, on top of the meta town read.

You think pisskop is scum faking being infected, and the actual infected is staying quiet? That's the scenario where lynching him is better than attempting to lynch scum.

[davesaz]

Fake pushes on A50 and fake defenses of Hoctac are good places to look for scum.
I'm also keeping an eye on people who advocate bad strategy for handling infected, but that's a much weaker approach.

[davesaz]

Give me a concrete example of why Hoctac is town, that isn't based on memeing / not giving a shit about the game.

give me a concrete example that he's the best wagon for you. Show me an example where he is more likely scum than any other player.

Youre being lazy and looking scummy dave.

I'm not seeing anything better. Look at my posting that isn't about Hoctac and you'll see I'm working my ass off here trying to find someone else. There are 3 to find after all. Care to share your brilliant ideas on who scum are?

[davesaz]

each and every player voting for hoc is a better lynch than hoc

That's pure bullshit, I'm by far the towniest poster in this game.

[davesaz]

Voting locktown, good move.

[davesaz]

Nero is shoving words into my mouth, not the other way around.

You're the one trying to say that Nero including one Oka post means that he mistook that post for gobble. Unless I've misremembered how that conversation started?

Believing that someone made a mistake and calling it out is not putting words in their mouth.

If you say they made a mistake and they correct you and say it was on purpose, and you keep pushing it, then yes you're putting words in their mouth.

[davesaz]

Notes:
1. Based on memory of slot including predecessors. Specifically saying right now that
I made this list offhand without *reviewing* anything. Just copy/paste the player list and go.
2. See notes in <>
3. I don't do pushes. That's a style thing.
4. Updated from last post

<conf to me>
davesaz

<town reads>
LicketyQuickety
Almost50
Nero Cain
Firebringer (Tchill)

<medium town>
OkaPoka (Miss Lynch)

<weak town>
TrueSoulEnergy (Vecna) <needs review, can remember vecna more than TSE is a problem>
Nahdia (Elements)
pisskop (Saudade) <behaving town, but infected> <4, downgraded>
Aristophanes <4, upgraded>

<still having trouble remembering what they're *doing* => UNDECIDED>
Auro

<needs review to see if what they're doing is town motivated => UNDECIDED>
gobbledygook (farside)
CheekyTeeky (No lynch, Voted)

<scummy to me>
Flavor Leaf
Hoctac
Alchemist21 <4, downgraded>

<updates>
I reviewed the last 40 or so posts of Ari, and it felt town.
The last 40 or so posts of Alchemist looked scummy.
I don't see pisskop's reason to go all in on defending Hoctac, downgraded a notch.

[davesaz]

You say you scumread him by post 10 or so - give us legitimate reasons.

I did say 10 or 20. In the interest of fairness I went back to look.
Mentions of ICs. Instant townreads.
Fucking with Saudade about moment of brilliance.
Avatar stuff.

[davesaz]

None of those are scum-indicative.

To me they are, to you they apparently aren't.

The important part is that it's most definitely not lazy, and it's not "just because of neighborhood".

[davesaz]

Also lol ugh Saudade why did you replace out, I wanted to troll you about moment of brilliance too

NGL, I did post about it after Saudade tried to use it as a justification for claiming to be town who didn't need to do any active scumhunting.

[davesaz]

To me they are, to you they apparently aren't.

Sure; I propose a quick exercise then.
I quote the first 10 Hoctac posts from various completed games. You apply the same principled metrics as you are here and guess what his alignment was.

Do you think you would gain a >rand result with, say, 8 games?

I have no interest in doing something like this. Especially not in this thread.

[davesaz]

It was whether you're confident of gaining a >rand result if you did.

Feels like a trick question, especially since you presumably know things about Hoctac that I don't.
"People whose actions don't feel like genuine scumhunting"

seems

to be >rand for me on catching scum. Whether that's selection bias or not is unknown, I'm not actually keeping score.

I don't have a feel for how that translates to individuals over a large sampling of games, especially ones I don't have a background on. I'd be crazy to be confident here. It's what I see in this game, and it's relative to other people in this game.

[davesaz]

Pisskop has claimed infected, which overrides everything you just said.
Please try to keep up with current events.

[davesaz]

someone said that scum can only infect if they don't use their not infected scum kill, therefore, scum couldn't have killed Mastina AND infected Blair at the same time, thus Blair died from hiding behind Piss/someone else.

I'd prefer not to rely on this assumption. Making too many assumptions can result in discarding valid scenarios.
Kinda immaterial at this time anyway.

[davesaz]

If Hoctac gets lynched and flips town that wagon was a pretty obvious counter and likely to contain at least two scum.

Counter to what? Your statement is meaningless without context.

[davesaz]

help me lynch Alch, cheeky.

I'm not lynching PK or Alch today as I think things will become clearer on both of them down the track.

I agree with this. I'm not going to comment on why.

[davesaz]

I had spare time to re-read TSE, and see enough for a strong town read.

[davesaz]

I was infected night 1.

[davesaz]

I suppose Piss should claim then, right?

not going to claim, its continuously scummy that you ask

You already claimed, I just quoted it.

[davesaz]

Sure is a lot of polarization this game.

[davesaz]

Care to weigh in on wagons or something?

[davesaz]

FWIW it's hard for me to meet a 32 hour 100% of the time. That's a sleep plus a heavy work or personal day when I don't do internet at all. Luckily the number of such days is quite limited. You have the option of doing your best with the time you can be here.

[davesaz]

W

Spoiler:

T

Spoiler:

F

is QQ?

[davesaz]

crap meant to preview that to make sure it worked.

[davesaz]

Sure would like to see some clothing on those votes.

[davesaz]

Hoctac, I can't remember you giving any reads that are backed by concrete reasons.
If you're town and care at all about town winning it would be wise to fix that problem.
Not doing this is the biggest part of the reason for the Jake and 5G lynches.
It's arguable that it contributed to ETL's lynch too though I had no part of that and no trouble telling what she thought.

[davesaz]

Hoctac, I can't remember you giving any reads that are backed by concrete reasons.
If you're town and care at all about town winning it would be wise to fix that problem.
Not doing this is the biggest part of the reason for the Jake and 5G lynches.
It's arguable that it contributed to ETL's lynch too though I had no part of that and no trouble telling what she thought.

I have though. Read through my ISO again.

How about you state some now.

[davesaz]

I have though. Read through my ISO again.

Nothing I'd call a read with reasons since at least Saturday (page 2 of ISO).
If you disagree with that feel free to quote one of your posts and explain how it contains both a read and a non-trivial reason.

[davesaz]

Dave blaming Hoctac for previous mislynches feels a bit much.

This is a misrep. I'm blaming

bad town who don't play the game or give reads

for getting lynched. I don't like losing as town when the people who are supposedly on my team sit around circle jerking instead of trying to win the game.

[davesaz]

Oh look pisskop with another misrep.

<scummy to me>
Flavor Leaf
Hoctac
Alchemist21 <4, downgraded>

Looks like I have other scumreads, no?

[davesaz]

Yeah let's not just apathy lynch Hoctac.

VOTE: TSE

Just as I was about to get around to asking why fire.
Guess I'll ask why TSE instead.

[davesaz]

I was gonna yell some more about Hoctac fading into the background when asked what his reads are, but I noticed a V/LA tag.

[davesaz]

He's never, afaik taken this staunch position and screamy attitude with other do-nothing lurkers before

Probably because we haven't both been in a game where

seemingly 50% of the player list is doing nothing

.
It's not even lurking. Two of the people we lynched just said fuck no, I'm not going to actually play. Three if you count ETL's tantrum.

[davesaz]

TSE himself hasn't done much to town up the slot.

Read the first 20 posts, filtered by keeping in mind what the setup is.

[davesaz]

EBWOP 20 posts in TSE ISO.

[davesaz]

I scumread Almo. On day 2, you'll notice he was defending me when I was being pushed for that "slip". He seemed pretty sure I was town. Today, however, he has voted me with a non-reason, and provided no reasons for why he thinks I'd flip scum. The way he's been interacting with Cheeky also feels a little more apologetic/off than I'd expect from Almo if he was town.

Looking at the first link.

What kind of slip are people talking about? That the infected stat dying the next night?? IF that's it, I see no slip. Scum can only kill the infected on N2 because there were no infections at the start of N1 is how I got it. If that's not the slip, can someone please point me to it?

You called this defending you, which is technically true but doesn't tell the whole story. He did it by pointing out the fallacy of people who were acting like "an infected can't be killed until the next night" was a slip. This is more often than not a town behavior. Scum don't want to shoot down fallacies because doing so makes it harder to get mislynches. Leaving the fallacy hanging helps both in targeting the person who made the fake slip and in targeting those who tried to exploit it, depending on how the game goes. I wouldn't say that scum never point out errors but it does seem less likely than town.

The "pretty sure I was town" link is just a picture of a wall. I'm not sure how you're getting a read out of that. Commiserating yes, and going along with the joke of the day, but not very AI.

As for the rest of your post, I'm generally disappointed with people not giving reasons for votes so no argument there. I'm not sure how to handle the Cheeky / A50 stuff other than to say that I think they play often and it's more of a well-known friends thing than AI on either side.

[davesaz]

EBWOP 20 posts in TSE ISO.

Pinpoint exactly that which would only come from town?

It's antitown to get too specific about it, or at least to reiterate it too many times just in case scum are lazy.

[davesaz]

Why is A50 the lead choice

prob b/c he has 200 posts and no one knows whats he's done this game besides lecture us on mechanics.

Not to repeat myself too many times, but A50 has some towntells that seem to be lacking in his scumgames. If he could replicate them he'd be able to pull one over on me, but so far it has been 100% reliable. I even noticed a lack of the towntells in a game we were both scum and pointed it out to town. (My 2nd best scum win btw, possibly because of the realistic looking bus -- FL was on our team too)

[davesaz]

Notes:
5. Updated again

<conf to me>
davesaz

<town reads>
LicketyQuickety
Almost50
Nero Cain
Firebringer (Tchill)

<medium town>
OkaPoka (Miss Lynch)

<weak town>
TrueSoulEnergy (Vecna) <needs review, can remember vecna more than TSE is a problem>
Nahdia (Elements)
pisskop (Saudade) <behaving town, but infected> <4, downgraded>
Aristophanes <4, upgraded>
Alchemist21 <5>

<needs review to see if what they're doing is town motivated => UNDECIDED>
Auro <5>
gobbledygook (farside)
CheekyTeeky (No lynch, Voted)

<scummy to me>
Flavor Leaf
Hoctac

<updates>
I had found something after the last update that meant Alchemist is likely town, if true. It isn't a strong reason.
Now that I've been able to differentiate the A's, Auro ends up in the "not sure if it's town motivated" list.

If I'm wrong and A50 is scum, y'all will probably mislynch me but there isn't really anything I can do about it. At least I get valuable intel for future games.

[davesaz]

Actually TSE should be medium town based on the thing that I mentioned to CheekyTeeky. Strong if it's actually true. Alchemist would also be medium moving to strong if true.

[davesaz]

Almost is more likely Scum then A50

I wonder what you meant to say here?

[davesaz]

LicketyQuickety
Almost50
Nero Cain
Firebringer (Tchill)


OkaPoka (Miss Lynch)


TrueSoulEnergy (Vecna)

So you hard defend TSE then put him in your weak town reads?? >.> <.<

Your townread are wtf mate. Could you share the FB read? Both TChill and FB are super suss.

Read on and you'll find I posted a correction about TSE.
I thought TChill was the only one other than me and perhaps Nero looking at the game from a truly critical point of view. I don't expect FB to produce anything useful and haven't seen anything overtly bad that I remember.

[davesaz]

Can we lynch PK tomorrow incase he's cured or something?

I'd say it as not lynch PK today, but otherwise +1.

[davesaz]

In a game modeled on diseases, things may or may not be instant.

[davesaz]

Same comment to you that I made to Cheeky. TSE is near locktown from 1st 20 posts in ISO provided it's true. We're absolutely not lynching that.

[davesaz]

Do you sr hm?

Are you reading the game?

Spoiler:

Have I mentioned that YT's might as well not exist for me as a communication method. I won't press play and couldn't interpret it even if I did.

[davesaz]

Uh oh, if mafia were the only source of infection how'd we end up with two new cases?

[davesaz]

Also I'm relieved to see that my A50 towntells are still accurate.

[davesaz]

I’ll let Pisskop do it.

No Pisskop shouldn't. I'm sure at least Dave would have seen why, Dave can affirm and that should be enough.

Evidently I missed something in the area of what's being validated. Remind me what the "what" is and I'll confirm/deny based on the why. Or give a post range or something. Vague is fine, I do have something kinda in memory here but not sure if that's the subject of the discussion.

[davesaz]

Normally I would say VCA without a scum flip is useless. Gotta think on that a bit to see if anything pops out.
TBH I thought I was on Jake, maybe that's one that got hammered before I could get back to it?
You're marking clidd as green d1/d2 because of the reported infected result?

[davesaz]

Personally I’m betting on 6 scum because I like to bet on the green square on the roulette wheel.

your math doesn't hold up. 3 OG scum + Piss + n3 infection + 2 new infections on n4=7

This is a misinformation campaign.

I agree that 7 is correct for worst case, but doesn't account for any possible cures.

[davesaz]

There is nowhere I have seen that indicates the scumteam will win when infected > town.

Eh, really?

[davesaz]

So yeah. Iunno what you'll get out of this but so be it lol

I got large post, not much signal.

[davesaz]

the last time cheeky called me town then randomly scum read me she was scum. Though I could certainly see gobble being OG scum that got ran up and tried to throw infected under the bus. I wish more ppl commented on my gobble catch but that's how the game is played these days where no one talks about things.

You could have something, but I don't remember a "gobble catch" so would need to read back.

[davesaz]

Bottom of 312. Saw Pisskop and FL comments about gym / climbing. Be very careful folks, in my state we're about 3 weeks past a major relaxing of restrictions, and getting a bigger spike in cases than the first one.

[davesaz]

Can more ppl comment on this?

this is my hang-up with gobbles

I tracked Blair to Pisskop.

I miss Nahdia already, shes part of the reason I went after pisskop with my track

if you tracked Blair to piss how did you "go after piss" with your track?

Scum trackers are a thing and I'm not sure why ppl are writting that off as a town role.

Oh, is this what you were talking about?
I had a better question for the same thing, must have forgotten to ask it.
If Nahdia was a reason for "going after" pisskop, how does tracking

Blair

fit in with that?

[davesaz]

There is a scum-base among the players who have not been replaced at any time

to begin with, this is an absolute shit reason to suspect me AND its selective scumhunting. What if, infected actually do know the scum team and this points to 1 of those 4?

2. Auro+
3. Hoctac+*
10. Alchemist21+*
14. davesaz+*

Did you forget that you haven't been replaced? I think there may be another too but I'd have to peek at OP to find out.

[davesaz]

Are you guys townreading Hoctac ?

No, I'm not.

[davesaz]

Should I do some reverse instead of forward? It's ~10 pages to read IIRC.

[davesaz]

reaction tests are the worst and anyone that does them should be modkilled

I think they can be useful but most people botch them badly. In particular it is not well understood that the reaction must be interpreted relative to game state and the player's personality and style, most certainly not one size fits all.

[davesaz]

Guess I didn't read fast enough.
Moderately suspicious of whomever thought it was a fine idea to hurry things along.

Pedit: why wouldn't you be able to win?

[davesaz]

Moderately suspicious of whomever thought it was a fine idea to hurry things along.

weren't we closing in on deadline? we can't all move at a snail's pace.

Deadline wasn’t until the 22nd.

[davesaz]

Things are both better and worse than they seem.
On the worse side, infected must attempt to infect others. That possibility was confirmed the night there were two new infections.
On the better side, the reason I know this is that I was infected and now I’m recovered, therefore the possibility of recovery is confirmed.
It’s possible we may have only the one new infection and no previous ones. Not gonna bet that way but it’s not as gloomy as it could be.
We still must execute scum. Getting really tired of obvious town flips, and still annoyed at the bad town flips.
Assuming infected would flip as such, mafia are out of non infected kills.

[davesaz]

If there is only one kind of infected then I'm down for voting Pisskop. Though I'm not sure scum!Pisskop would try to 1v1 me, that seems like a losing bet.
I can't be sure there is only one kind so it's possible we're both right.

I could see FL as scum making stuff up as he goes. This is pretty similar to a game we were scum together.

[davesaz]

I was actually kinda happy to be infected. For a while it looked like that was going to put me on the winning side of an easy win.
Now I'll have to work again for a harder one.
You will note I haven't said who I tried to pass it on to. Going to hold off on that for after MC since it could reveal something interesting.

[davesaz]

Pisskop is conftown, try again

NO such thing. I don't remember seeing an IC announcement from the mod.

There was an if/then in my post. If there is only one kind of infected then he is lying about not being able to infect. Or possibly lying about ever being infected at all. I don't approve of townies lying unless there is a very good reason. Better to say nothing... And yes that means I don't think townies should ever fakeclaim. I'm a very conservative type person, in the true meaning of "always do the safest right thing" not in the political sense.

[davesaz]

Alchemist sent the action. If Pisskop were scum then Alchemist would not know that his heal did nothing.
Likely town yes, confirmed no. It's exactly the same as a doctor who claims a heal with no kill, not a confirmed inno. In fact it's less confirmed than a regular doctor.

When you need to check logic, ask someone who is an expert in logic.

[davesaz]

Gob is more than likely the days lynch, yes? and ""y'all wouldn't lynch Gobb without me finding the contradiction." sounded weird for some reason

This seems like you’re taking credit where someone else brought it up.

[davesaz]

Scratch that it went back to previous day.

[davesaz]

So did I miss the part where massclaim finished? Or is that still going on?

[davesaz]

i am a vt
popcorn to whoever oka says next.

gobbles

So we're apparently on gobble for massclaim.
I think I don't like Firebringer abrogating the responsibility of popcorning.

[davesaz]

dave, talk to me about Ari. Why is Ari Town?

This question prompts a number of why's in return.
Why ask me? Why Ari in particular? Why ask now when we have a decent wagon on someone who looks pretty caught?

At the last point I thought about Ari, I was thinking his 2nd page iso looked vaguely town motivated in a non-specific kind of way.

[davesaz]

Show me where exactly gobbles "claimed scum" because I haven't seen that since I've been here.

Also he HAS already fullclaimes as JoAT, which sure, could feasibly be a scum role, but I'm pretty sure it isn't here.

Answer to someone who asked me why it was bad to end the day with 5 days remaining -- I would have eventually gotten to read Gobble's claim if y'all hadn't been in a hurry.

Guess what, we're not executing gobble.

[davesaz]

Also why the fuck isn't gobble's full claim part of the discussion today? Why isn't anyone pointing out that massclaim doesn't need to wait for him?
I think scum are trying to quick lynch a TPR with a remaining shot.

[davesaz]

Day 6 VC #4

Aristophanes (1): LicketyQuickety (8236)

Flavor Leaf (1): Radical Rat (8227)

gobbledygook (5) (L-2): pisskop (8192), Auro (8201), Flavor Leaf (8248), Hoctac (8257), Aristophanes (8325)

Not Voting (6): davesaz, OkaPoka, Firebringer, Nero Cain, clidd, gobbledygook

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch a player.

This phase will end on June 27, 2020 1:00 PM EDT (GMT-4:00) or in (expired on 2020-06-27 13:00:00).

Moderator Notes

1: If you have regular weekend V/LA, you must either notify me each time or set V/LA tags each time.
2:

Please note the prodding rules. You are prodded after 32 hours of inactivity on Tuesday-Friday.

3: I'm still modding this game on mobile as I can't get my computer to connect to the site.

Nero looks bad because it's supposedly his case on Gobble but he's not on the wagon at all.

pisskop can be scum with all the actions that have been claimed. It would be a good scum move to claim infected, and claim to have been cured. Individual scum are not playing against wincon to claim "scum" solo. If he is scum, he slipped a bit when he responded to me saying that infected have to try to pass on the infection -- someone who hasn't actually been infected would not know that. Someone else did leak the information on an earlier day but I'm not sure I'll be able to find the post again.

[davesaz]

Creature's playing to his scum meta so I'd be down to lynch him too.

VOTE: Creature

Umm huh?

[davesaz]

I'd like to jump up and pound on the table

we really need to kill actual scum

.

[davesaz]

Well, the good news is we apparently weren't in LyLo, or even MyLo.
The bad news, there's almost no way we aren't now.

I think it's time to massclaim, list all night actions performed, and hopefully we can solve from there.
I've already claimed VT, so no actions there.

Either Nero or Auto next please.

Just saying, I switched halfway through yesterday because I thought this guy was group scum, so I stopped pushing him.

Did anyone validate this comment? Not sure it matters anyway.

[davesaz]

Claims:

davesaz - was infected & could infect others, cured
pisskop - was infected, could not infect??, cured
gobble - JOAT (details?) wasn't cured (8281)
Radical Rat - VT
Auro - VT
OkaPoka - not infected (8213) vt
FL - infected night 3? corrected to n4, self curing?
Nero - VT
clidd - infected?
Firebringer - VT, didn't popcorn

Hoctac (weird posting could be infected, has not claimed)
Aristophanes (has not claimed?)
LicketyQuickety (has not claimed?)
clidd (presumed infected but hasn't claimed?)
pisskop (has claimed cured but nothing else?)

[davesaz]

FL's weird behavior has me thinking he's scum and doing what he does to disassociate when caught.

[davesaz]

I'd like to see Ari next.

[davesaz]

Realized that was unclear about 5 ms after hitting submit. I'd like to see Ari claim next.

[davesaz]

Not terribly surprised at that given the cult game earlier this year.
Help us with your reads on who you think group scum are. I'd actually prefer that we lynch them.
Can you help with the inconsistency between me saying infected must pass it on vs. pisskop saying he couldn't?

[davesaz]

claim up of you want to save him

I already claimed like 2 Days ago.

Save me the need to scan your iso for it please.

[davesaz]

I was infected (end of) N4 and recovered (end of) N5. I did not get any information saying whether the recovery was spontaneous or the result of someone's action.
D5 beginning of day post reported 2 new infections so there is another N4.

[davesaz]

I'm gonna retract my earlier statement on Gobble and give intent instead. I'm willing to settle for infected.
In light of my disappointment yesterday that I wasn't caught up when day ended, I'll put it on hold for a bit.
Pedit: also to allow maxwell to read.

maxwell

we have some questions on the claim from your slot. You might want to clear those up from the start.

[davesaz]

I understand OkaPoka's approach, but it wasn't hard to anticipate the likely answer from the mod.
I haven't asked the question by PM so consider this more theoretical than practical.
In a setup that contains a role that can effectively choose to ride with the current wincon or change wincon, the "playing to wincon" standard applies to the individual's chances/skills/preferences of winning, not the current faction's.
That type of role falls within the range advertised for the setup, whether it actually exists in the setup or not.

[davesaz]

Gobble being able to infect others means we should go ahead and remove him sometime. A 2 infection night may be enough to tip it, and if it's the same as mine it's compulsory to attempt to infect.
I haven't decided if it should be today or if it's worthwhile to do someone else instead.

Hoctac is almost certainly infected or scum.

[davesaz]

Pisskop says otherwise, though?

Otherwise what?

[davesaz]

Didn't he claim that he can't infect?

Yes, I've posted a couple times about the discrepancy. I don't know if this means there are multiple varieties of infection, or if pisskop is lying about it.

It benefits scum to make infected seem less dangerous. In a world where scum know that the wagon choices are between town and infected there is strong motivation to push for "scum lynches" on players they know to not be scum. They are shielded from repercussions by the appearance of doing something town motivated. I think town have been far too complacent on relying on a cure and allowing the semi-obvious and quite frankly to be expected "disease spread" mechanic to be downplayed.

I'm starting to talk myself into a yolo push on pisskop. He's one of the strongest suspects if you look at this from the angle of pushing that infected are harmless. At least going by memory he's the one I remember the most doing that.

[davesaz]

Didn't he claim that he can't infect?

Oka claimed that if he tries to cure someone and they are not Infected that they become Infected. There's a lot of BSery surrounding Oka that I don't particularly like.

Why did you take this pisskop discussion and morph it into an Oka discussion?

[davesaz]

But if all infected people could infect, wouldn't it have exploded by this point? We're just consistently seeing one infect per day, except for the time we saw 2.

Given the flips it might be blind luck that it hasn't exploded.
There were at least 4 people who infected couldn't pass it on to (3 scum and a social distancer) so far. Plus the chance of hitting already infected.

I don't disagree with the possibility of there being two or more kinds of infected. I brought up that possibility to begin with.

[davesaz]

It wasn't "away from" Piss. I would probably lynch Piss at this point. I was just trying to show Oka is up to some smelly things and I'd rather put some pressure there before it's too late.

You say this, but why wouldn't you quote something from Oka, or just make your point without the pisskop-related quote?

I'll respond to the other parts of your post separately.

[davesaz]

FL was bad. I felt their claim was bat shit crazy, but afaik the replacement, Maxwell, hasn't really said a damn thing about his pred and I really don't know how to read that at all. I would have expected a, "Hey my pred was weird, could we like just toss out everything he has said and call it a wash since it IS FL and all?" Still, their points have been good and I would hate to lynch a slot like that with good content. Do we read them based on the pred or not? I really don't know.

Where do you stand on FL?

FL felt odd all game, but I have struggled with figuring out whether it was "usual odd" or "unusual odd".
The role makes sense for the flavor, but Flavor is a setup guru and could have fabricated a fake role that makes perfect sense.

Maxwell going along with the claim tells us almost nothing. If it's a scum fakeclaim it was almost certainly hashed out in the scum thread and maxwell therefore would have a reference to follow. If it's a true claim then he has the role PM to work from regardless of alignment.

We have to read the slot by its reads and votes. Is there a thread to follow and does that thread show town motivation, or is it just going with the flow without any accountability.

[davesaz]

Oka claimed that if he tries to cure someone and they are not Infected that they become Infected.

I didn't read it quite that way, unless it was in a different place.

[davesaz]

Only 1 minute passed between Ari's post that maxwell quoted and LQ's vote on pisskop.
I too am interested in an explanation of what changed there. Communication works much better when you quote something and explain how you see it.

[davesaz]

Meanwhile in practical terms we're at 21.5 hours.
Running out of time to do anything new today.

[davesaz]

and the replacement hasn't said anything about their pred, FL.

For comparison purposes:
I tend not to spontaneously say anything about my predecessor when I replace in.
Sometimes I use their reads to give me ideas of where to start looking, but that's not a consistent thing.
Why do you think this is important?

[davesaz]

davesaz

Probably town
Firebringer (Tchill)
Radical Rat (Vecna, TSE)
Nero Cain

Some of this group has to be scum, no confidence on which one(s)
maxwell (Flavor Leaf)
pisskop
Auro
Aristophanes
LicketyQuickety
OkaPoka

possible infected?
clidd (Nahdia, being rep?)

infected or scum
gobbledygook
Hoctac

Discussion

Not having a group scum flip is making this game incredibly hard.
I'm not fully convinced on any of my town reads.

maxwell is very much a case of believe the claim=>town, don't believe =>scum.
Unfortunately FL is one of the people where you can't fully believe the claim, and if scum then maxwell has notes to follow.
The role totally fits with the theme, and a role that can choose its fate is both helped by swing and potentially counters it.

I can't be completely onboard with pisskop being mech cleared because there would be no indication if scum were targeted.
There is a subtle but very real difference between infected being no threat, and being less of a threat than group scum.
In fact it's entirely possible that infected are actually a bigger threat. Being wrong doesn't make him scum unless
he knew of the difference and was being wrong on purpose. More likely town than not, but would vote in later game if
we make it that far.

Auro is in the 2nd tier specifically because he's very skilled at scum making town looking arguments for valid looking reasons.
I don't have any specific reason to suspect him.

I

still

don't have a solid handle on Aristophanes. I am aware that this makes it look like I could be teamed
with him, but I have to stand my ground here. I honestly can't remember what he has done, and that is a significant
problem.

LQ is in the scum candidate list precisely because he has been all over the place. I see some strong indications of trying
to find someone to match his reads to in a buddying sort of way, and he's keeping all options open. I notice a lot of scum
ask other people for their reads repeatedly in order to set up equal or different reads according to the situation.
I also feel a lack of conviction, which is a bit out of place in such a huge ISO and is frankly contradictory to a surface
reading. I'm unsure if this is merely a style thing or if I'm onto something.

I might have OkaPoka placed wrong, TBH. Another slot that I can't say has struck me as having consistent or strong reads.
I want to continue my approach this game of writing the big reads wall completely from memory aside from initially making
the player list. Kinda the same as Aristophanes in terms of not being able to remember exactly what he stands for.

[davesaz]

Why do you think this is important?

Because of FL's claim.

Have you noticed that 8718 was acted upon / reacted to / refuted?
Any followup to those answers?

[davesaz]

its prob too late in the day to get a lynch here so I'll switch to gobble when I need to but...

VOTE: firebringer

Ctrl-f of your ISO last page shows a whole lotta fire, but darned if I can tell why from that page. Wanna put some words on it?

[davesaz]

VOTE: gobbledygook

[davesaz]

I'm gonna retract my earlier statement on Gobble and give intent instead. I'm willing to settle for infected.
In light of my disappointment yesterday that I wasn't caught up when day ended, I'll put it on hold for a bit.

I've been virtually on gobble for ages, and explicitly allowing time to get as much out of the day as possible.
Stalling? Nope!

[davesaz]

I think this was well modded and it turned out to be more fun setup-wise than expected. I stand by my late-game assessment that it was balanced but very swingy. One thing that slightly impacts playability is wincons which can trigger so early, but we did know that both teams had a parity-based wincon and we were thinking lylo a full day before the end so I think it was in plain sight.

It would be interesting to know why pisskop said infected couldn't pass it on. In the end it didn't play much into the result other than keeping him off the top tier of my reads but it could have gone much worse.

Auro's quantity of posting is probably the biggest factor in not attracting an outright scumread from me. I do think that I called it correctly, he was pushing reasonable but wrong stuff which matches the BTDT game. At least I get a 2nd data point on how to read him.

I have a soft spot for reasonable sounding roles, and it showed this game with FL's fakeclaim. Maxwell did a good job of handling the questions about it. I take some solace in the fact that I had every scum/infected within my POE group.

Anti-town players are anti-town. Enough said on that subject, other than to implore them to please get better.