Power Brokers: Game of Thrones - Game Over

[Arya Stark]

I will fight you.

[Arya Stark]

Why are you more deserving than Flavour Leaf?

[Arya Stark]

Ygritte with the negative vibes.

[Arya Stark]

Kmd was one of the townier towns from what I remember but I dont like #178 really seems early to compromise on a leading wagon.
I'll read through the setup stuff soon. tomorrow maybe, maybe not.
Auro did you give any thought to that yet. Your insights would be invaluable to me.

[Arya Stark]

Put some thought into the setup, and it's a lot less interesting than I had presumed.

As far as I can tell, game is nightless and scum no factional kill.

-Worst case is 3 scum nobles, in which case scum can endgame at 9p with 3 kills in one phase (ie after 2 mislynches)
-Town should be moving around frequently to disguise locations, this provides a psuedo bulletproof
-We should be get hostages to nobles asap to raise the kill ratio of non confirmed scum kills to confirmed scum kills
-Court officials most useful power is scanning alignment of dead. Its worth to stack COs on the same scan to avoid risk of misinformation. For day 1, probably 4 of us should scan the lynch, the other powers are not useful early game (possibly ever). when nobles start killing, spreading CO scans will become necessary
-Looks like setting up hostages could take a LONG time, so in the mean time game is effectively vanilla. Most actions seem either not useful or unlikely to ever come into effect.
-In general, the CO investigate death ability is town's most useful power

Mod: If a CO investigates death today, and a player is lynched today, will the CO get a result on todays lynch? Or must the CO name an already dead player?

[Arya Stark]

Even with hostages you'd have scum factional kills, so it's better that town just agrees never to assassinate or kill - so scum can't do it if they're in a position to individually.

That's like saying vig shots aren't worth using. If we get them into town hands, we get extra mislynches.
If we're not using extra kills, the nobles are purely a liability, and should be the priority lynch pool. Scum nobles are much more dangerous than non-scum nobles, as they can accelerate endgame.

[Arya Stark]

Even with hostages you'd have scum factional kills, so it's better that town just agrees never to assassinate or kill - so scum can't do it if they're in a position to individually.

That's like saying vig shots aren't worth using. If we get them into town hands, we get extra mislynches.
If we're not using extra kills, the nobles are purely a liability, and should be the priority lynch pool. Scum nobles are much more dangerous than

non-noble scum

, as they can accelerate endgame.

I mis-spoke.

[Arya Stark]

This is the Auro I was waiting to see
Is this the remaining CO action?

And the fifth CO can disband my Guard.

[Arya Stark]

VOTE: Shireen
I prefer this to Fire. Not wanting to kill FL, really. He hasn't triggered any of his usual tells, for me.
I won't vote any CO.

[Arya Stark]

Arrest: Elena Fisher's 2nd

[Arya Stark]

I'll reveal my identity after the game (or earlier). Don't stress your brain cell over it.

[Arya Stark]

I'd like to stay hidden for a little while, at least to most of the PL, so i'm not agreeing to that yet.

[Arya Stark]

All of Nero's ideas are terrible, please don't sheep him. If we were to kill a CO it should at least be one of the 3 (!!) that have failed to perform a public action.

This VC is a god damn travesty. What did I sign up for?

[Arya Stark]

And we are really going to let flavor just afk day 1?

Flavor has no votes and most players won't turn up before deadline, so yes.

I'm here to help get something through if needed. Probably up for 2-3 more hours

You should arrest either Rubicon or Porkens 2nd, to prove you aren't using the CO track location ability, and give yourself a chance at 1-shop BP.
Do you want to vote FB? We could make it L-3

[Arya Stark]

Ok, well, i'm out - Consider my vote locked.

[Arya Stark]

How disappointing

I will say the only time i've seen FL allow a day to NL he was scum.
It's not a good look on you mister leaf of flavours
VOTE: Flavor Leaf
Here look i'm pressuring you. I gave you a d1 pass, but no more.

[Arya Stark]

Arya's someone who's clearly familiar with me. She seemed to respect and view my potential insights into the mechanics, and seemed excited when I went into my classic hyperpost town self.

While that could be a pretty nuanced and brilliant pocketing attempt (note that she didn't really engage with me outside that, which would have lended some credence to the theory that she was pocketing me) I think the simpler answer is that she's town.

You also didn't engage with me when I was trying to arrange a lynch on limited time and instead pursued an off-topic conversation!
I think you are too much scumreading those who disagree with you and townreading those who support you. Porkens is coming across very genuine in his resistance to you.
I think the idea to pick the most widely townread noble to nuke the game raises town EV (probably substantially) in principle, it's a lot easier to pick the towniest player out of 5 than it is to lynch 3 different scum, but it would necessarily require near unanimous support and that's where it would fall down. After taking the 2 week slow action to capture all the COs, if 4 or 5 people just don't turn up at the castle it can't be done.
It doesn't help that the nobles are the hardest group to find townreads in.

[Arya Stark]

Auro, join me on Pink Ball, (or) give me reasons for Pink Ball being town, (or) sell me on why any townread of mine is scummier than Pink Ball?

But really, i'm waiting to see anything from Pink Ball, who has given me precisely 0 reason to question my vote. I think the scumtell I mentioned for Flavor Leaf is the most solid thing I have to go on so far.

[Arya Stark]

Yep. He has a high level of fluff and I found him announcing V/LA without also checking his vote for town's interest scummy.

[Arya Stark]

I think so?
Conveniently being absent is definitely beneficial to scum, and allowed NL to occur. Your point about no travel is fair, though.
Okay, i'll help build momentum on Fire Doggo.

VOTE: Firebringer

[Arya Stark]

It remains true that FL/PB slot has two underwhelming ISOs - We can be revisit if PB continues in this vein.

[Arya Stark]

Do you mean that is part of the result that you learn if an action is invalid, or are you saying the real result is actually 2?

[Arya Stark]

And also consider whether there is an effective way to use Take Hostage to protect COs from lynching by moving them out of the capital.

It's slow so we lose one more CO anyway, though

Yes, but we could potentially protect some of them.

Release takes a week, taking hostage on week 3, slow action, completes on week 5. By which point most of us are dead, and coup can performed.
Best way to protect COs is for us to keep using aggressive actions. Release is not an aggressive action.
We need to coup ASAP and move the CO powers to roles that can travel. It might only be one CO left by then, so you'd better make sure it goes to town, or game really is flipless.

[Arya Stark]

Thanks LQ.

I'm going to disband Pink Ball's guard today unless someone has a better idea.

[Arya Stark]

The big fish eat the little fish and I keep on paddling.

And what would you have me do?

But seriously, why the wide face, Arya? I don't know if it's healthy to stretch your face out like that.

Someday, I'm gonna put a sword through your eye and out the back of your skull.

[Arya Stark]

UNVOTE:

[Arya Stark]

Damn I sound like Gobbles? Should I be offended? Probably
I'm going in circles thinking about this action i'm just sticking with my first thoughts

Disband Pink Ball's guard

I was milliseconds away from posting this on the wrong account hahaa

[Arya Stark]

I'm not seeing the case/slip on Rubi can someone break it down ELI5?
She's showing pro-town intent which is lacking in most of the list so i'm not wanting to lynch there really.

[Arya Stark]

sorta hate mafia games these days since most ppl do like shit all.

Sorry about that, but I have sort of been on a mental energy low for a while.

I just remembered we don't get that 2-day night phase where I could chill. Sigh.

Vote Rubicon and be a hero.

Spoiler:

Who are you voting again?

Remind me why you’re voting me?

Because you killed KMD.

Best post in thread.

[Arya Stark]

I'll go read the posts Nero is talking about and if i'm convinced i'll vote Rubi. Otherwise i'll vote Fire Doggo for a few hours first before I have to vote Rubi anyway because the Fire wagon already emptied onto Rubi and the rest of the list is AFK.

[Arya Stark]

I had a look and I don't think it's damning. I find Rubi's #2122 acceptable.

3 hours though and I don't have time to babysit another wagon. I think this is L-1.
VOTE: Rubicon

Rubi's POE aligns fairly well with my own if you exclude the read on me so I don't have a lot of confidence in this beyond "maybe i'm bad, my strongest townreads seem to believe in this".
Did my bit to avoid NL, your turn.

With the number of people not trying I feel like we're at the mercy of the most inactive players to just make any lynch happen, lynching one of the engaged players is not what I want to be doing in this gamestate

[Arya Stark]

Hmm..Uh..So..This is awkward. My reaction test fooled even the mod. I wanted to see if anyone off wagon would vote Rubicon, thinking it was L-1.
My vote on Rubicon was a hammer.

@MOD

[Arya Stark]

arrest porkens' second

Invalid action, Porkens isn't in capital. Please investigate Rubicon for alignment.
I'm sad that Pork used his power in this way, but as requested, let's move on.

The slots off wagon all failed my reaction test:
Auro
pisskop
Pink Ball
Gobbles
Davesaz

Dave was seeking replacement so no useful info there. The remaining 4 all believed Rubicon wasn't hammered and failed to act, as evidenced by their posting during the "extension". Any player aware should have alerted the mod.
- pisskop unvoted Fire and never came back.
- Gobble was simply absent, the replacement was shortly before deadline but there was still no effort made to catch up/check deadline as far as I can tell.
- Pink Ball solo voted Shireen with around 5 hours to spare and didn't return. What were you thinking? Useless vote with zero chance of anything but a NL.
- Auro said he wanted to lynch in {Fire, Rubi} but didn't move his vote. I find this most damning for Auro because it's totally out of character. He made posts on site between my vote and the deadline. I was shocked that he didn't "hammer". My townread on Auro is gone.

At minimum, 1 of you is town and allowed a 2nd consecutive no lynch to occur. We CANNOT afford to have multiple slots continue playing so nonchalantly. Make a note of when deadline is, and MAKE SURE your vote is doing something productive before you leave. It's not that hard.

[Arya Stark]

I'm tired of being shitted on in this game

Apologies, that's not my intention.

It's just frustrating being in a game where other players appear not to care. Apathy is infectious. I know this setup is hard to grok. You should call your banners today, btw - There's not much a noble can do before that (other than killing).

[Arya Stark]

?

[Arya Stark]

3 hours though and I don't have time to babysit another wagon. I think this is L-1.
Did my bit to avoid NL, your turn.

[Arya Stark]

Huh.
I hadn't even thought my post could be read in that way.

But..you forgot Rubi was hammered? That's...super hard to swallow, Auro.

[Arya Stark]

Oops.

What's the COs' opinion on this I would like to know

This is how I expected it to work, and is the assumption i've been thinking under. Anything else would be counter intuitive to me. I've accepted that I won't last long in this game due to my role. Whether it's good game design is a different question that we can discuss after the game.

I don't see that saving us is possible - Arresting takes 2 weeks to perform in which time we are vulnerable. If we'd thought of this plan on week 1 we could have organised things better to ensure CO abilities made it to late game, but I didn't think of that at the time, or that the scum approach would be remove COs as quickly as they have. We can only make the best decision based on where we are now. I'm disappointed, Auro, that you're pushing this plan when it has such an obvious flaw.

I think the options are:
1) Both me and votato scan the same player for alignment, so that if we're both town the survivor can bring one flip result.
2) Both me and votato perform aggressive actions to increase our survivability to point of coup, so town has a CO power available late game.
I haven't sent my action for this week yet.
My feeling is to go with option 1 personally, but i'm open to influence if that's the minority opinion.

[Arya Stark]

Sorry, jailkeeping. I'm mixing up terms.

[Arya Stark]

@MOD, if a CO was taken hostage to Something_Smart's castle this week (week 3), at what point would the CO's location become Something_Smart's castle?

[Arya Stark]

@Dave - Alignment distribution was confirmed earlier by mod to be random between the different roles.

[Arya Stark]

Yeah, you're right. Porken's could take one of us hostage, and it's hidden so scum won't know*. Releasing a captured CO won't process until next week though, so that won't help.

*Fails if Porkens is scum, or if scum "win" a 50/50 on his target.

Porkens should do this today, then, to give us a chance of CO surviving to coup. I don't think this has any bearing on what COs do today.

[Arya Stark]

He can't do anything today if we release him because it doesn't occur until the end of the week, when scum can kill one of us.

[Arya Stark]

Again I must cede you are correct. I'm willing to do this then, if Pork and Nero are in agreement.
Of course, if votato is scum he's surviving to coup anyway and all we achieve is tying up a slew of town's actions.

[Arya Stark]

I did an arrest day one on someone who admitted trying to kill a CO. Leave me out of that "you people".

[Arya Stark]

You kidnap Arya, Pork kidnaps Votato? Pick the castles randomly.

sounds good

Found it myself.

Release: Nero Cain's 2nd