Jigsaw's Revenge - Game Over

[Blake Belladonna]

Hello.

VOTE: farside

Welcome back.

[Blake Belladonna]

Vote: Blake Belladonna

Vote: Blake Belladonna

Good field work out there, Battle Mage. Blake Belladonna, I believe Battle Mage may want you to notice him.

I noticed.

[Blake Belladonna]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

[Blake Belladonna]

Massclaiming early game is never done for a good reason.

In this case I feel like there's obvious modfuckery going on.

I'd prefer we didnt talk about the hoods at all D1, and just hunted for scum.

I agree with this.

I appreciate why we are having this discussion and the paranoia that comes from having private information, but the simple fact is that there is simply no utility to a neighborhood if we are committing to outing everything that is being said within a neighborhood. There are legitimate reasons why a neighborhood is better than the public thread for saying certain things, and within them lies a potential tool for reducing the process of elimination for which neighborhoods currently have scum within them. The mafia team's greatest asset is that they have more information than the town does, but town can leverage that into forcing the scumteam to show that to the town. Removing that option, to me, is a strange one.

There is little to gain from this for right now. A better course of action is to let it be and if something interesting happens that somebody feels should be in the main thread, then they will post it here. There is no need for ambassadors or to analyze the hoods at this time.

---

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

He had the most awkward entrance to the game.

[Blake Belladonna]

You're overanalyzing, Albert B. Rampage.

[Blake Belladonna]

You're overanalyzing, Albert B. Rampage.

The name of the game is analysis, I'm just doing it well, and I'm consistent.

You're overanalyzing.

If you're a townie, you see Drixx open up about not knowing the player list in his PT on page 1, and you're not in any hood yourself and not curious at all about his post to comment on it...I find that suspicious.

Scumreads: Guilty Lion, Vecna, Xtoxm, BBmolla

3 have claimed not to be in a hood: A50, BBmolla, Xtoxm,

Guilty Lion

.

For sure there's scum outside the PTs. Probably 1 scum in each PT and 2 outside of it if there are 3 PTs. Statistically, our best bet is to lynch inside [A50, BBmolla, Xtoxm, Guilty Lion] today.

First, neighborhoods are not strange in large games. It's common for some percentage of the playerlist to be placed within neighborhoods whenever they exist within a game, so Drixx's comment is not out of the ordinary. Second, it's not common for neighborhoods to be a direct source of alignment indicative information in this day and age. Times have changed since the game where I was able to get a free scum win based on a two player neighborhood with only scum within it. People are becoming more savvy about WIFOMing and analyzing hood compositions, and the meta has adapted around this to make these expectations much harder to base any real analysis off of.

Third of all, this type of analysis only works when there is strong evidence of a gameplay reason for the neighborhoods to be structured the way they are. I'm seeing little reason to believe that the neighborhoods have any such reason to exist in their current form, since there's plenty of evidence that it is primarily flavor based. In this case, the only possible analysis that can be made is what information the scumteam has access to. Naturally, this becomes an avenue of scumhunting only when the neighborhoods are mostly given free reign to handle themselves. Naturally, if somebody thinks something strange is going on within their neighborhood, they should divulge that information.

I find this worrying because I've noticed you place an unhealthy amount of emphasis on the neighborhoods in a state where there is remarkably little to work off of regarding them. I don't necessarily think this is scum motivated from what I know of your personality, but this is the type of path that I can see catching town far more often than scum.

[Blake Belladonna]

I am caught up.

BBMolla is town.
Hectic is town.
GeorgeBailey is town.
farside is town.
Battle Mage is town.
Almost50 is town.

Xtoxm is likely town, although I will need more to lock this in like the above.
GuiltyLion can be town for right now. I place a low confidence on this read and believe I will have better luck refining this read over time.
Vecna is likely town.
momo is likely town.
VaultDweller is likely town.

Pine, Morning Tweet, Albert B. Rampage, davesaz, pisskop, and iDanyboy are slots I feel unsure about in one direction or another.

Elsa Jay is a scumread, albeit one I place no confidence in. I would likely only wagon this as a compromise.
Gamma Emerald is a scumread, albeit this is a gut read.

Drixx is scum.

VOTE: Drixx

[Blake Belladonna]

I will be around tomorrow.

[Blake Belladonna]

I am caught up.

BBMolla is town.
Hectic is town.
GeorgeBailey is town.
farside is town.
Battle Mage is town.
Almost50 is town.

Xtoxm is likely town, although I will need more to lock this in like the above.
GuiltyLion can be town for right now. I place a low confidence on this read and believe I will have better luck refining this read over time.
Vecna is likely town.
momo is likely town.
VaultDweller is likely town.

Pine, Morning Tweet, Albert B. Rampage, davesaz, pisskop, and iDanyboy are slots I feel unsure about in one direction or another.

Elsa Jay is a scumread, albeit one I place no confidence in. I would likely only wagon this as a compromise.
Gamma Emerald is a scumread, albeit this is a gut read.

Drixx is scum.

VOTE: Drixx

You decided to point out that your GE read is a "gut" read, which implies the ones you didn't label that way have reasoning. Please provide said reasoning. For me especially.

This should be good.

Your push onto Battle Mage initially was fine, but the way you stretched it into a multi-page monstrosity over something that draws the eye as something that isn't particularly noteworthy isn't genuine. Based on this combined with Albert B. Rampage's reads and the way you've been treating him this game, I do not see this as a town approach to the game.

[Blake Belladonna]

Am I reading a completely different game as everybody else?

I'm seeing a lot of posts that I fundamentally disagree with and it makes me very wary about the Vecna and Battle Mage wagons. It would not surprise me to see multiple scum pushing those.

[Blake Belladonna]

I think 567 wins over 564, no question.

Davesaz is also scum. 567 is not a good case.

[Blake Belladonna]

I'm undecided on Drixx, I see where you guys are coming from and those posts pinged me too, but I liked his early stuff so idk :/

Why?

[Blake Belladonna]

Something is fundamentally off with this game. The Drixx and Elsa Jay wagons were both wagons that I could reasonably see in a standard game based on how it was progressed so far. However, the Battle Mage and Vecna wagons were both unnatural, especially the Vecna one.

My townread on Hectic is dwindling, and I distinctly do not have a townread on Morning Tweet whereas I feel like I should by now. However, my read on Davesaz as a player makes it unlikely that he is scum if Morning Tweet is scum.

Beyond this, I have mostly townreads.

[Blake Belladonna]

I am caught up.

BBMolla is town.
Hectic is town.
GeorgeBailey is town.
farside is town.
Battle Mage is town.
Almost50 is town.

Xtoxm is likely town, although I will need more to lock this in like the above.
GuiltyLion can be town for right now. I place a low confidence on this read and believe I will have better luck refining this read over time.
Vecna is likely town.
momo is likely town.
VaultDweller is likely town.

Pine, Morning Tweet, Albert B. Rampage, davesaz, pisskop, and iDanyboy are slots I feel unsure about in one direction or another.

Elsa Jay is a scumread, albeit one I place no confidence in. I would likely only wagon this as a compromise.
Gamma Emerald is a scumread, albeit this is a gut read.

Drixx is scum.

VOTE: Drixx

You decided to point out that your GE read is a "gut" read, which implies the ones you didn't label that way have reasoning. Please provide said reasoning. For me especially.

This should be good.

Your push onto Battle Mage initially was fine, but the way you stretched it into a multi-page monstrosity over something that draws the eye as something that isn't particularly noteworthy isn't genuine. Based on this combined with Albert B. Rampage's reads and the way you've been treating him this game, I do not see this as a town approach to the game.

Go look at Wake's 50 player that was called off recently. You can find it by looking in my profile. Look at my interaction with KM. Then decide whether that's genuine or not.

What is your precise conclusion with this post?

[Blake Belladonna]

That is not the type of answer I was looking for, though I understand the confusion.

What is the precise conclusion you are expecting me to reach?

-Blake

[Blake Belladonna]

That is not the type of answer I was looking for, though I understand the confusion.

What is the precise conclusion you are expecting me to reach?

-Blake

Just reassess. If you have some other reason to think I'm scum, then rock on with your bad self. If it was solely feeling that I was making a show and wasn't actually genuinely pushing ... then you have strong evidence to contradict your thinking.

I'll evaluate the rest of the answers you gave after I sleep. Was a draining shift tonight.

This answers what I was looking for.

Last question from me. Do you know my identity?

[Blake Belladonna]

I got one scum and was wrong about the others, and kuribo did the heavy lifting on that. That's a pretty far cry from what you're talking about. Further, I lurked the shit out of that game because I despise D1. It actually kind of proves my point.

Okay, this settles my anxiety about you - you're not distorting the truth to make a false point, you're just misinterpreting the facts.

If there's one thing that had been made abundantly clear to me over the years, it's that you can't ever expect interpretations of any one player's play to match across different players.

[Blake Belladonna]

I feel sympathy towards Vecna this game, the way people have been reading his slot looks eerily similar to the games where I get heavily scumread as town.

[Blake Belladonna]

When was the last time we were TvT?

[Blake Belladonna]

Oh, right.

Titus v Alisae.

[Blake Belladonna]

Be careful when going this route. I've seen davesaz react very poorly to pressure like this as both alignments.

[Blake Belladonna]

I think 567 wins over 564, no question.

Davesaz is also scum. 567 is not a good case.

Be careful when going this route. I've seen davesaz react very poorly to pressure like this as both alignments.

Not sure why you are saying such if you find him scummy.

You misunderstand.

I'm looking to prevent a toxic gamestate, which is a very realistic possibility in this scenario. My read has no relevance to this.

[Blake Belladonna]

I can already tell you won't listen to my warning.

Very well, I will watch from afar.

[Blake Belladonna]

Sigh.

I'm not saying don't wagon him. I'm saying to be careful about it. He has a history of reacting very poorly to pressure like this and I expect it to escalate with somebody like Albert B. Rampage at the helm.

I've fallen into that same trap multiple times in the past and it has yet to go in a positive direction for town.

[Blake Belladonna]

I'll make sure to do that once I can be certain the game won't be hijacked again, Almost50.

[Blake Belladonna]

I'll make sure to do that once I can be certain the game won't be hijacked again, Almost50.

Apologies, I'm realizing when reading this again that I'm breaking character. I'll return later.

[Blake Belladonna]

This game is high up on my list.

UNVOTE: Drixx

I meant to do this the last time I was here, but I forgot to.

[Blake Belladonna]

@BB - no idea who you are. I generally don't go trying to work out who is an alt of whom unless someone is paying me the unpleasant kind of personal attention.

Blake Belladonna is an open Ankamius/Alyssa the Lamb alt.

[Blake Belladonna]

Hmmm, the announcement of the hydra heads has made my townread dissolve

poof

Why?

[Blake Belladonna]

VOTE: Hectic

This is the better wagon.

[Blake Belladonna]

Vote: Blake Belladonna

Vote: Blake Belladonna

VOTE: Battle Mage
Failed vote clearly scum fake-RVSing their partner

More later today maybe
Please keep the game length tolerable okay? Don’t post more than 100 posts in a day for the first 3 days imo

Now tell me that this does not look a bit funny in hindsight.

Why of all posts does Gamma pick up on BM voting for Blake belladonna, and calls it scum fake RVSing their partner?

Now tell me this scenario does not overlap at least conveniently with your PoE pools

And then debate with me whether these lines dont come from scum trying to get too cute in an overwhelming (read statistically significant if so inclined to avoid sensationalism) number of cases.

BM/BB as potential baddies together? GE as a teammate or a towny having a good gut sensation? Lets explore this further

What does this mean for hectic and Momo?

Thoughts whether if im accurate that BM is saving Hectic here, or just setting up for a 1v1 to set up the next mislynch?

You are overanalyzing this. I agree now that I look at this again that post 34 is strange, but it is strange in the way that it's simply an awkward scum entrance.

It's common for scum to struggle to get into a game, so they latch onto the first thing that looks remotely interesting to them in am awkward way. I don't find it likely that Battle Mage is scum in the first place, but this call out especially is a SvT associative for if Gamma Emerald ever flips scum.

[Blake Belladonna]

Vote: Blake Belladonna

Vote: Blake Belladonna

VOTE: Battle Mage
Failed vote clearly scum fake-RVSing their partner

More later today maybe
Please keep the game length tolerable okay? Don’t post more than 100 posts in a day for the first 3 days imo

Now tell me that this does not look a bit funny in hindsight.

Why of all posts does Gamma pick up on BM voting for Blake belladonna, and calls it scum fake RVSing their partner?

Now tell me this scenario does not overlap at least conveniently with your PoE pools

And then debate with me whether these lines dont come from scum trying to get too cute in an overwhelming (read statistically significant if so inclined to avoid sensationalism) number of cases.

BM/BB as potential baddies together? GE as a teammate or a towny having a good gut sensation? Lets explore this further

What does this mean for hectic and Momo?

Thoughts whether if im accurate that BM is saving Hectic here, or just setting up for a 1v1 to set up the next mislynch?

You are overanalyzing this. I agree now that I look at this again that post 34 is strange, but it is strange in the way that it's simply an awkward scum entrance.

It's common for scum to struggle to get into a game, so they latch onto the first thing that looks remotely interesting to them in am awkward way. I don't find it likely that Battle Mage is scum in the first place, but this call out especially is a SvT associative for if Gamma Emerald ever flips scum.

You cannot possibly convince me you really thing that GE as scum is thinking that far ahead is that conniving, and hopes for it to work.

These types of posts comes from scum being overly cute, or town thinking people are bussing. I see no real indication why a town GE would think that in that situation, because making an error in the vote is something that you only notice and pay heed to if your teammate is doing it.

You are assuming that there was a reason for that post beyond just getting into the game. I am telling you that this isn't necessarily the case.

[Blake Belladonna]

BM, Pine, momo and I are in a hood. We believe momo is the scum. I was going to run Hectic up to L-1 to see who was eager to save momo and then shift onto momo last minute for the day 1 lynch.

How known within the hood is this sentiment?

[Blake Belladonna]

BM, Pine, momo and I are in a hood. We believe momo is the scum. I was going to run Hectic up to L-1 to see who was eager to save momo and then shift onto momo last minute for the day 1 lynch.

How known within the hood is this sentiment?

This question can't be serious. If ABR says they believe momo is scum do you think it wasn't discussed? If it was, what is your take on the wagon and how it went?

Interesting.

You don't find that strange?

[Blake Belladonna]

BM, Pine, momo and I are in a hood. We believe momo is the scum. I was going to run Hectic up to L-1 to see who was eager to save momo and then shift onto momo last minute for the day 1 lynch.

How known within the hood is this sentiment?

First I've heard of it!

Only joking, we all share an unspoken bond.... I feel naked now my hood is outted....I thought we were gonna keep it tight?

So this wasn't discussed in your neighborhood much or at all before now?

[Blake Belladonna]

VOTE: Momo

This is a good lynch then.

[Blake Belladonna]

Do not end the day, please.

I'm catching up.

[Blake Belladonna]

Almost50 is still town.
Battle Mage is still town.
BBMolla is still town.

farside22 I'm going to townbin for right now, because I don't see a reason for her to lie about what the trap consisted of. Based on the 1501, I further assume that it's likely that this trap was set to force town to remove one of two players that scum want removed in order to save the cop. I will revisit this later on when there's more information about what the scumteam are likely trying to do, but I'm not seeing scum being placed into this position currently.
davesaz is likely town.
GuiltyLion is likely town.
Xtoxm is likely town.
Drixx is likely town.
Vecna is likely town.

GeorgeBailey and VaultDweller are slots I remember townreading throughout day one, but at this point I don't remember why anymore. Their relative lack of presence lately do not give me the best impression.
Pisskop is somebody I'm not going to be interested in lynching for right now. He isn't acting like the last time I saw him as scum, but he's also far more easy to sort when he's town later on in the game.

Morning Tweet and Albert B Rampage are both slots that I'm explicitly not townreading. However, I would like to look towards reading these two slots primarily by analyzing Farside22 further, which I will do later. Until then, I'm not interested in sorting these two slots directly.

Of the remaining two, I would prefer a lynch on Gamma Emerald.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[Blake Belladonna]

Battle Mage, can you describe what happened throughout your neighborhood throughout day one in more detail?

[Blake Belladonna]

How convenient.

[Blake Belladonna]

Vote: Xtoxm

Based on what happened last night, and everything we've seen so far today, Xtoxm is a great bet for scum and Jigsaw himself.

Trust BM - I have never steered you wrong before.

I’ve got mixed feelings on this, I think the idea of Jigsaw running the traps/games makes sense, but unlike Danny I don’t have something that I personally find scummy from this person

Can someone run me through an actual case for Xtoxm?

I can help you a little bit...

Last night Xtoxm shared his fakeclaim (postman) with ABR to try and protect himself, whilst simultaneously trying to kill me. Sent him a love-letter, basically telling ABR how big and strong he is, and promised to sheep him forever (admittedly, this is how ABR described it ). Firstly, there's no way in hell anyone town is doing that. Secondly, the likelihood of scum not putting a trap on ABR last night is reasonably slim given his profile (and I believe he's close-to-confirmed town), so deduce that the reason they didn't is because Xtoxm was going to target him (because if ABR was trapped he couldn't have received the letter). Thirdly, Xtoxm randomly asked on Day 1 to be investigated by different types of cop, and I assume only Jigsaw would be cop-proof, and would have a big incentive for an early clear investigation. Plus Jigsaw is probably not in a PT, so that gives a 1/6 chance anyway, and Xtoxm is clearly the scummiest player of the 6 on his own merit. Others have already made the case on his Day 1 voting pattern being dreadful, but also keeping himself quiet enough to avoid much interest. His only post today is a memorial for Elsa who was subjected to 2 traps last night.

Hence we should

Vote: Xtoxm

This is a remarkably weak reason to lynch Xtoxm.

First, Xtoxm regularly, in every single game I've seen him in, has a very low post count. He commonly doesn't engage into games for very long when he does.
Second, this play you're suggesting happened is a very high risk play. I would be very shocked if any scumteam within this playerlist would forego trapping Albert B. Rampage for the sake of a half-assed pocket.
Third, why do you believe that Albert B. Rampage would be a higher priority pocket for Xtoxm rather than you?

[Blake Belladonna]

I can tell you with absolute confidence that the way Momo acted towards ABR in that PT, is NOT the way scum acts towards a partner.

I want to judge this myself.

[Blake Belladonna]

I can tell you with absolute confidence that the way Momo acted towards ABR in that PT, is NOT the way scum acts towards a partner.

I want to judge this myself.

I can see this for what it is. You're trying to throw yourself under to save Xtoxm.

Not today kiddo.

Battle Mage.

Answer the question.

[Blake Belladonna]

I can tell you with absolute confidence that the way Momo acted towards ABR in that PT, is NOT the way scum acts towards a partner.

I want to judge this myself.

I can see this for what it is. You're trying to throw yourself under to save Xtoxm.

Not today kiddo.

Battle Mage.

Answer the question.

There's no question here. Let me ask you something instead - how do you think I could have confidence in anything you say when you don't read my posts properly and with due respect? when you have not engaged with the trends and key issues in the game? and when you are trying to waste time and obfuscate affairs by throwing shade at people who we are clearly not lynching today?

This conversation is a waste of time. I know you are smarter than this, and so I have to believe there's a chance you are scum protecting Xtoxm, but I'll lynch him first to find out.

I do not care about your reads. I care about solving the game.

Historically, scum lynches on day one have proven to be the bane of towns on this site. The fact that you are pushing for a lynch on a slot for reasons that would indicate extremely sloppy play is, to put it bluntly, playing right into what most competent scumteams can easily abuse. I have enough experience with Xtoxm to know that he is not an idiot, and I know enough players in this playerlist to be able to say confidently that the odds of such a blatant pocket actually being approved is ridiculous at best, and outright uncharacteristically terrible at worst. This is an overconfident push that has very little basis when you look at what it actually contains.

The contents of your neighborhood is very important to determine whether Albert B. Rampage is town or not. I find this exceptionally important to discuss today specifically because there is no guarantee that you will survive the night, and the contents of your neighborhood will die with you if you do.

So stop tunneling and answer the question. What exactly happened on day one within your neighborhood?

[Blake Belladonna]

The contents of your neighborhood is very important to determine whether Albert B. Rampage is town or not.

are they really? I'm good with assuming ABR is town for now until/unless he gets to like LYLO or something

Yes.

Nothing he has done outside of the neighborhood is town, and the descriptions I've seen about the neighborhood don't indicate town either.

[Blake Belladonna]

Nothing he has done outside of the neighborhood is town

that's quite a claim

How do you think Albert B. Rampage would play as scum?

[Blake Belladonna]

Interesting.

I will need to think upon the trap choices. I agree that it's very likely that scum are behind the traps considering the flavor and lack of known information about what else scum is able to do within the game, so the picks for who goes into the traps is important, as well as what the traps actually do.

I do think it's far more likely that scum would place their own in a trap in circumstances where they need a boost of towncred, or otherwise would gain an advantage from doing such over putting town within the trap.

Considering that everybody other than Battle Mage from the night one traps is dead by this point, I think it's unlikely that the scumteam were in trouble with the death of momo. Battle Mage doesn't specifically need to look better than he does after day one, and there is some risk that the traps will give town a different reaction than scum would expect, so I still think that Battle Mage is unlikely to be scum from a risk reward standpoint.

My preliminary guess is that GuiltyLion is scum within the second set, but I haven't properly thought through what the second set of traps means yet as of this point. I will say, however, that I think it's less likely to be the case if Albert B. Rampage flips town, since that was the only major shift in reads that happened across day two. If the scumteam felt particularly threatened enough to go for the WIFOM play, that is where I would look to first.

I have other thoughts upon Albert B. Rampage. I will go into them later.

[Blake Belladonna]

Makes me think scum is incapable of killing us in any way other than playing games. If scum had access to a night kill, then Cakes wouldn't have told us that farside was the one who shot A50. That's my thinking anyway

so, I share a lot of your thought process MT, and I agree with all your reasoning here, and I still think you're a solid townread.

That said - if scum have to put us in games to kill us, including solo games, doesn't that start to clear a lot of players if that's the only avenue scum have to kill? I would think at some point scum would need to put themselves in games, which is why I'm curious/waiting to hear how you survived your game with no apparent negative effects. I will def explain mine as well today, but hilariously sucks for scum lol if they thought they would kill both of us and we both avoided it and cleared ourselves as town in the process

I had a similar thought last night! Here's my notes I had on a post by blake:

Spoiler:

1687 - Blake gives out her master reads list. Her reasoning for townblocking farside is that she believes scum would put two players they want to get rid of with the confirmed cop. Blake reads that I also find interesting: Davesaz!town, Drixx!town, and Gamma!scum.

This strikes me as shaky reasoning for townreading farside. Scum could just as well put one of their own in the trap. Hell I’d expect it. Anyone from an outsiders perspective would know that Pine was 100% going to sacrifice himself in that trap. So why not stick a scum in the trap too?

I think it's likely they have to kill us with the games. However, from that deduction, surely scum can put themselves in the games too..? There's a possible issue ive found with scum putting themselves in the games, but i'll go that later once i talk about my game.

I found farside22 to be likely town because scum likely wanted to maximize the potential value of the game. The most likely explanation is that Pine was placed in the trap for the player within two hoods, while farside22 was placed because somebody caught a crumb of hers. In the scenario where scum are uncertain of how town will handle the traps, this is a much safer bet than the wifom play.

[Blake Belladonna]

Later.

I am on my way to work as we speak.

[Blake Belladonna]

I'm back. I see there's like a million new posts since I last read. Won't be catching up any time soon. Anyone care to give me the tl;dr?

I'm seconding this.

[Blake Belladonna]

I'm very curious why Albert B. Rampage has suddenly stopped tunneling me. I'd also like to know why Gamma Emerald is townbinning me.

Nothing I've done today necessitates or should change reads on me.

[Blake Belladonna]

I'm very curious why Albert B. Rampage has suddenly stopped tunneling me. I'd also like to know why Gamma Emerald is townbinning me.

Nothing I've done today necessitates or should change reads on me.

Well I think your play is scummy but I've been under attack from gamma, bm, and danny.

Okay.

Is that the only reason for those reads?

[Blake Belladonna]

Can you explain the Gamma and Danyboy scumreads for me?

[Blake Belladonna]

I don't entirely trust that meta read because it's entirely possible for somebody to improve at playing scum out of nowhere.

But in the interest in not restarting my tunnel, I will think upon it.

[Blake Belladonna]

My scumgame was terrible for 13 years.

[Blake Belladonna]

I see you're as charming as ever.

[Blake Belladonna]

Good luck everyone.

[Blake Belladonna]

Now that the game is over, would you like to discuss what you saw that was town about me early on, Pine?

It was clearly wrong in this case, so I'm curious what exactly your process was that made you reach that conclusion.