Alisae V Pine: Trees Apparently Make Good Treestumps

[Menalque]

Yeah sorry gamma, it’ll happen but not rn

[Menalque]

If you’re fine with either and you think fb is the best lynch do u wanna vote him then

[Menalque]

Ducky, maria, what do you think of fb?

Can die.

Can die... today?

[Menalque]

UNVOTE:

[Menalque]

Ali, I did a thing

[Menalque]

So, on Thursday, pine sent me this via jingle net:

AN OWL FLAPS DOWN FROM ABOVE AND SPEAKS TO YOU...

How are you doing, my lad? You seem to be handling yourself quite well along the merry questers despite your youth. Beware, your journey is quite far from over.

I have mulled over our prior bargaining, and have decided to offer you this deal privately. I will grant you the Informed fruit in twilight, and throw in your choice of Roleblocker or Rolecop fruit in the bargain. This could lead quite easily to you being the hero of the game, gaining at least one critical piece of information and perhaps a chance to stop yet another kill. We’re you to pull that off, I have no doubt that you would be a formidable candidate for the Rising Star Scummy, and would make the nomination myself post-game.

I have conditions. I require you to lead a counterwagon to the current ones up for debate. You must lead this effort vigorously, and with success, or I shall find your end of the bargain not to have been upheld and our deal void.

You must also give no indication to anyone that you have received communication from me, or I shall find you have not only failed to meet terms, but also broken faith. This would spell a rather ill end for you, I am afraid.

You may indicate your interest by including the word “blue” in your next post in whatever context you like. The colloquialism “blue in the face” would be suitable. If you wish to decline without prejudice, include the word “red.” If you wish to negotiate terms, keep that shit to yourself, this is a “take it or leave it” deal.

Cordially,
Eldest Pine

I weighed up what to do for a little while and decided bargaining with the evil tree stump was probably a bad idea. Now, Pine is canny enough that I'm sure there's quite a lot of WIFOM here because I doubt that he does this without being very consciously aware of the fact that I might just betray him and out it (see: what's happening rn). But I decided to say fuck it. I'm gonna play him at his own game.

So I decided to act like I was going along with it. Now, I misunderstood what he was getting at, because I thought he wanted me to take my pick of the others to lead a counter wagon on, and I picked PB. I thought he had a decent chance of picking up some traction, and I wanted to see who would switch. I also thought he was a place where I could look like I was "vigorously leading".

But then I got this on Thursday while I was pushing pb.

A TREE TRUNK AHEAD OF YOU SUDDENLY BURSTS INTO BLUE FIRE. THE FLAMES QUICKLY DIE DOWN, LEAVING A SMOLDERING NAME BURNT INTO THE BARK...

FIREBRINGER

So, I switched to fb to see who'd end up joining me. Again, I had to look convincing, which is why I was acting with fb as I was.

Most recent message I got was this, on Friday.

A DORMOUSE SCAMPERS OUT FROM THE UNDERBRUSH AND UP YOUR PANT LEG. BEFORE YOU CAN BRUSH IT OFF, IT WHISPERS IN YOUR EAR...

Bargain for whichever fruit you like. I may dicker with others regarding it, but will award it only to you. Remember, the terms are contingent upon both your success and your secrecy...

[Menalque]

I think the most worrying thing is that there was obviously no way for pine to stop me outing this even if I did really go for the deal once it got to twilight, which means obviously the most glaring implications need to be taken with a HUGE pinch of salt (namely, dann!scum and fb!town -- if you ask me dann probably is still scum, but I think it may not clear fb necessarily).

But in terms of movements: gamma actually comes out of this okay, I think. He doesn't seem to be that interested. I think it's worrying for icon's vote on fb, and I think, actually, the main concern for me is ducky. I don't think it's at all beyond pine to decide to NK last night in the hopes that the "conf!town" lands on one of the scum, especially if he already thought that ducky had a meaningful chance of being the save. I'm not sure about this, but I do think ducky needs to explain his movement towards fb in solid detail.

[Menalque]

Incidentally, I think pine was being genuine in trying to get me to take this deal. Most obviously, he knows that I want that rising star scummy, and I want it bad. In fact, that was probably one of the main things that did make me consider this. Hell, if it had been confirmed that the deal would actually hold despite being made via PM, I might have taken it. But then, I remembered losing to Pine in group chat because he made a ridiculous offer to town and town game threw by taking it.

So I decided the smart thing to do was to not bargain with scum, but to try and get what I could out of it. If Pine fully anticipated my betrayal and this was all a game of elaborate WIFOM, hats off. Fair play, you got me. But if we decide it's genuine (and I think we have a better chance of figuring that out together -- you, me, Dunn, and SS, or even just the three of you if this whole thing shakes your trust in me) AND we think that Pine believed I was going along with it, then I think we can try to figure out who's spewed town/scum based on their responses to my pushes, because I don't really think I was convincing enough to get town to change direction there, but I think I might have been convincing enough for scum to change direction and to be able to justify it based on my play.

Maybe I should have let this run on a little longer, but I had time to out this all tonight, and I didn't want to risk an apathy hammer.

Hoping this will breathe some life back into the game.

[Menalque]

Okay, so the thing is not "was the case believable" it's "was it enough that we think pine believed that I was genuinely trying to live up to my end of the bargain"?

[Menalque]

I think the initial message is probably indicative of dann!scum, and I still think that's probably the right lynch for today. I think dann was probably going down today anyway, so if I'd immediately publicised the message, the scum who was getting lynched... gets lynched anyway. I think the main WIFOM in it is whether pine would give a scum alternative, or a town alternative for me to lead the counter wagon on.

But yeah, that's also not the most interesting thing. The most interesting thing, and the most valuable source of potential information here, is to look at what the movements where in votes/positions in response to my case(s).

[Menalque]

Like I said, I lightly think that this spews gamma town for going after the pb case and then starting to worry about me abandoning it. Icon hopping onto what I thought was a fairly poor case is concerning. Ducky voicing support for it is the main thing that worries me and I really want him to talk about why he said that he'd prefer (or whatever exactly it was he said) an fb lynch to a dann lynch.

[Menalque]

fine w any of {Fireb, Dann, Ico}
think dann is vaguely better for gamestate analysis

think fireb removes a serious threat from the game who has been basically refusing to be readable up to & including xylo and has only started playing urgently now

don't think ico is likely to play harder or become more readable

I just realised fireb is the best lynch today LOL

this post worries me a lot tbh

[Menalque]

I think Gamma is prob spewed pine here.

Dann, if you were probably the lynch anyway, in a world where you're town, why would pine try to get me to lead a counter wagon to you?

[Menalque]

spewed town lmao

[Menalque]

I mean sure, but I am rock solid in my reads right now.
The only thing that will change my mind is flips.

Like I said, I lightly think that this spews gamma town for going after the pb case and then starting to worry about me abandoning it. Icon hopping onto what I thought was a fairly poor case is concerning. Ducky voicing support for it is the main thing that worries me and I really want him to talk about why he said that he'd prefer (or whatever exactly it was he said) an fb lynch to a dann lynch.

Dann -> Cephir -> Firebringer

sound good?

sorry, I missed these, didn't get a pedit

I still think dann is good today, yeah.

I think my lynchpool is looking something like (Cephrir, icon, fb, pb, Wooper) aside from that. I would lightly prefer icon before fb, I think, but other than that I'm pretty okay with it.

[Menalque]

VOTE SOMETHING aren’t you supposed to be SOMETHING SMART?

grumble grumble fine

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

Why here, SS?

[Menalque]

I think Gamma is prob spewed pine here.

Dann, if you were probably the lynch anyway, in a world where you're town, why would pine try to get me to lead a counter wagon to you?

I think even if Pine didn't think you were gonna out the message, he at least accounted for the possibility you would.

I'm town, and with Ali's read locked, I think I'm dying inevitably. It probably doesn't matter to him whether it's today or tomorrow. If he can get another mislynch like Fire done first? It might just win him the game

Wooper

Wat

I'm worried about the way he was getting into position to vote fb when the whole reason I was pushing fb was because pine told me to. And I don't think that pine wouldn't potentially no kill if he thought the protection might be on one of his scum.

Yes, it's a bit tinfoily, and I don't want to pursue it over more promising leads, but I also don't wanna keep it quiet in the case that I die tonight and don't get another chance.

[Menalque]

I agree Wooper is unlikely. But I'd still like him to elaborate more on what it was that made him shift his opinion to fb being the best lynch and how much of that was my case and why. I don't think he should be lynched until lylo, and probably not at all. But if he is in lylo, then I think it's something that needs to be considered as possible.

[Menalque]

@Jingle,

could the fruits be exclusively bargained via PM? Or must the bargains be public

I asked this and he said he couldn't clarify.

Me: jingle can you confirm here that this would be mechanically permitted? i.e. the offer of fruit here is something allowed without bargaining in game?

jingle: I cannot.

Me: can you confirm that it would not be permitted? as in, explicitly runs against the way fruit works in the game

jingle: I cannot.

Me: You know, I had a feeling you'd say that

also, just ftr between a player and a mod, I'm not actually going for it

I'm gonna pretend that I'm going for it to see who backs my push or (as I suspect is pine's idea) tries to argue that my push is scummy and comes after me, then out the message to Ali

jingle: I cannot.

[Menalque]

Why here, SS?

Town Gamma is actively towny, scum Gamma fades into the background.

Gamma has faded into the background.

Agree, but do you not think gamma's site presence has overall been lower since the accident. Plus I don't really see why he hops on pb > fb here.

[Menalque]

I have no idea when Cephrir is being sarcastic

[Menalque]

VOTE: dannflor

[Menalque]

my personal lynch for the day is Fire so I don't have to deal with him on future days but that's just a me issue

I mean as much as you feel this I think if you wanna go with lynching dann then you need to get SS and Dunn on board

[Menalque]

SS, you said you don't think they show desperation. What do you think the purpose behind them was then?

[Menalque]

Even if it's WIFOM, I don't think pine just does random WIFOM, I think he WIFOMs with intention. So I think the aim should be to try and figure out where the WIFOM was directed.

[Menalque]

Ali if dann flips scum I think speedlynching fb may be better if you wanna do that just so that he's not in thread any more. Especially bc if Cephrir did flip scum it's gonna be much more of a pain in the arse doing fire after that.

[Menalque]

SS, you said you don't think they show desperation. What do you think the purpose behind them was then?

It starts with W and ends with IFOM.

Even if it's WIFOM, I don't think pine just does random WIFOM, I think he WIFOMs with intention. So I think the aim should be to try and figure out where the WIFOM was directed.

[Menalque]

I think also the easiest way to resolve whether it was pure wifom or not is probably just to lynch dann here esp if we're thinking he's p likely to flip scum anyway.

[Menalque]

okay, so vote dann and let's find out and move on

[Menalque]

Like I really don't understand what's hard about this. His whole purpose is to get us to read into what he's doing so we can read into it wrong.

Okay, so I think we just disagree here. I've been back and forthing here all day (in my head) on whether we should completely ignore pine or try to read through the WIFOM. I think at this point that while it's always gonna be hard, trying to read through the WIFOM is useful because if we get it right in a hard spot we're probably good, and I think it's better than coin flipping -- it at least provides some sort of agency over the decisions.

[Menalque]

i need blood at this point
sorry for getting boring

i need blood at this point
sorry for getting boring

i need blood at this point
sorry for getting boring

i need blood at this point
sorry for getting boring

i need blood at this point
sorry for getting boring

i need blood at this point
sorry for getting boring

[Menalque]

VOTE: fb

[Menalque]

Ali I already did

[Menalque]

Vote Count 6.8

Flavor

With 11 alive it is 6 to Lynch or to No Lynch!

Dannflor (3): MariaR, wooper, Menalque,
Iconeum (3): Firebringer, Cephrir, Dannflor,
Firebringer (3): Pink Ball, Iconeum, Gamma Emerald,
Gamma Emerald (1): Something_Smart,
Pink Ball (0):
Cephrir (0):
Something_Smart (0):
Menalque (0):
MariaR (0):
wooper (0):
Dunnstral (0):

Not Voting (1): Dunnstral,


Alisae endorses: Firebringer

Deadline: Day 6 will end after 10 days, on October 30th. This is in (expired on 2019-10-30 22:00:00).

Pine is offering an Informed fruit. Wooper, Menalque, and Gamma Emerald are bargaining for it.
Pine is offering a Roleblocker fruit. Gamma is bargaining for it.
Pine is offering a Rolecop fruit.

+me +dunn

[Menalque]

Oh shit lol

Thought it was 5

I tried

[Menalque]

I’m sorry fb I hate having a bad stomach

[Menalque]

Pine sent me this:

A ROTTEN, SKELETAL HAND BURSTS FROM THE GROUND BEFORE YOU, BEARING A NOTE...
Congratulations on the completion of your mission! Truly I did not believe you had it in you to so plainly betray your liege and companions, but perhaps their is hope for you yet!

However, you violated the terms of our bargain by revealing it to all, and thus I owe you NOTHING in return. Still, you served me in this regard, so I will show you mercy from my ire, and leave you with this taunt:

The Informed fruit would have hardcleared Firebringer.

Eldest Pine

[Menalque]

I rly don’t think that you would have given me fruit anyway pine. Like maybe the informed if that’s actually what it was, but not the roleblocker.

[Menalque]

I suspect he meant there’s info contained in it that would have lead to you being hard cleared

Idk what, if he’s even being honest

[Menalque]

Fire is a known twilight troller

Literally anyone else and I’d think they were town here

Fire I still have no idea really

[Menalque]

Ali can you confirm that it was you what sent the message about Maria?

[Menalque]

Ali at this point I'm just gonna vote who you tell me to

[Menalque]

I think you're probably right about gamma, dann

idk between Maria and pb

ceps is prob scum

I still feel vaguely uncomfortable about Wooper even though I don't really have a reason for that

icon is prob town by PoE here

SS is conf!town already

[Menalque]

I'd rather lynch dann and gamma then try to maybe take a guess at the others

[Menalque]

what does lhf even mean

[Menalque]

is everyone online?

[Menalque]

fuck it

VOTE: gamma

[Menalque]

I meant more for the sake of establishing that either gamma is scum or I am

[Menalque]

Ali if you strongly object to this say now

[Menalque]

cool, I'm going to bed so I guess either I wake up tomorrow and we lost or we know one scum at least

[Menalque]

Gg scum

[Menalque]

Sorry ali

[Menalque]

yay now time to get yelled at by people wooooooot

I’m not gonna yell at you ali I think you did a good job and it was nice playing with you

[Menalque]

I mostly just feel really sad

Gonna take a lil break from here I think

[Menalque]

I was right when I was wondering if you no-killed the night Ali protected Wooper then?

[Menalque]

oh man, I took a break from this thread and honestly had forgotten that Wooper wasn't on the scumteam

[Menalque]

God, I played like fucking trash this game. Sorry to literally everyone on town but especially gamma, fb, and Ali.

I'm honestly just frustrated with myself about what feels like a long series of bad decisions culminating in the game losing vote, alongside a total failure to prosecute anything that I was actually right on in the game, or even to really push it mostly.

I think scum played very well, so I guess the reason I was upset is it just felt like I fucked up one thing after another this game.

Wrong SRs on chicka/ank early on. Right that PB's interactions were off with me but let that go and allowed him to pocket me by halfway through the game, despite knowing that my early reads are often better than my late game ones. Noticing that things were weird between dann/krazy but not really pushing it. Missing ank's crumb. Not trying to push back against DGB/think about that more critically. Not pushing PP hard enough. Getting locked into an idiotic SR on pops and Titus. Thinking both the masons were plausibly scum. Voting mastina despite thinking she was town because I thought that resolving the issue would help the gamestate enough for it to be worth losing one town considering I wasn't certain about her. Not being able to parse the WIFOM from Pine's deal correctly. Mislynching fb. Casting that vote on gamma when I knew that dann was more likely scum, I just didn't really think that gamma could genuinely think that pine's deal was theatre.

I appreciate people saying that this was a hard game or that I played decently, but I just think that up to my own standards I was really subpar here. I think I'm ready to engage with the thread again, and would welcome any feedback if people are willing to provide it for me.

[Menalque]

menalque let's play another game sometime

I'm kinda curious about your style now

I'd be down for that but I don't think this game is a good example of my style for all the reasons listed above

[Menalque]

Also, re: balance. I think the setup as originally set-up was mildly scum-sided due to the unrealistic expectation that town would be sensible enough to not madly pursue fruit. However, I think that jinglenet meant that in the end the game ended up balanced.

[Menalque]

Thanks @ank, ducky, pine

[Menalque]

Will scumchat for this ever be released or?

[Menalque]

Is the darkest glade discord scumchat?