Designer Mafia 2007 - Game Over, Final Scene Posted!

[The Fonz]

Hi all.

My vote has equal probability of being double or triple. As Oman noted, I believe, I need to send the QFTs off to MoS to get the additional votes, which I've just done.

So if he posts again, and then I post without double or triple-voting, you'll know i'm lying.

[The Fonz]

Has anyone actually tried, to, y'know, read Oman's posts? Each QFT adds a 25% chance of an extra vote. He got QFTed six times yesterday, which means at least two votes, and a 50% chance of a third.

Which, as it happens, came up, so I have three separate votes today.

Vote: Sir Tornado, Nocmen, The Silent Speaker

Mass OMGUS! I'll sit down and slog through everything this evening.

[The Fonz]

CKD, Oman puportedly gets +.25 of a vote for each QFT, maxing out at +2 votes. He got QFT-spammed today (by Belgarion, mostly), so he presumably gets 3 votes tomorrow. I'll note that Oman's role is more or less broken as mafia (it lets the mafia win from 5/2 town/mafia if QFT-spamming works and the town doesn't have double voters or night kills!). so I'd count him as near confirmed if he can prove his claim. (that said, could be a kill-optional SK, or maybe mafia can't QFT, only town). Plus, of course, more multi-votes than we've seen claimed would balance this out to a degree.

Just a quick point- the multivote stops working at all when there are five or fewer players left living.

Fonz, if you could try to answer some of the other questions I had on Oman's behavior that he's no longer around to answer for, that would be good. In particular what do you think of Kaleidoscope and can you justify Oman's shifting positions there?

Why would I do that? I'm not Oman, and being able to think like him is not an ability I'm particularly keen on acquiring. The only difference between my view of him and yours is that I can rule out scum motives. If I had to guess, I'd say he just wasn't paying that much attention.

Flameaxe clearly needs replacing.

Unvote: SirT, TSS, Nocmen

Vote: armlx

, for starters.

[The Fonz]

I'll note that Oman's role is more or less broken as mafia (it lets the mafia win from 5/2 town/mafia if QFT-spamming works and the town doesn't have double voters or night kills!).

Just a quick point- the multivote stops working at all when there are five or fewer players left living.

Is it per QFT or per different player QFTing? (ie, does spamming work?)

Per QFT. Or rather, I think per post containing a quote of me, and a QFT. QFT spamming does work, since I think half of my six QFTs yesterday were by Belgarion. If only one per player counted, I'd only have two votes.

But yes, if it stops working given 5 living players, as a mafia role, it lets the mafia potentially control the vote given 3 living mafia (lets them win an 11/3 going into night, assuming they can spam), but not given 2 living mafia and no extra kills.

Well, for starters, it isn't a mafia role. And i really don't think it's likely there's a scumgroup with three members, though there may well be three or more living antitown roles.

Why would I do that? I'm not Oman, and being able to think like him is not an ability I'm particularly keen on acquiring.

True. Can you give your own opinion on, say, Kali?[/quote]

Will do. Gimme a little while.

[The Fonz]

His predecessor was Battle Mage...

[The Fonz]

OK, My take on Kalei:

Day one, bandwagons a lot, doesn't really say anything. Par for the course for Scope.

Due to scope having created the Grim role, JDodge killing said role, and Scope pointing this out, it's hugely unlikely that Scope is scum with JDodge, since he would presumably have warned him, or at least, not brought it up himself.

Then he votes CKD. Hmmm.

Schis' interactions with Scope, to me, do not look particularly like bussing (also, see my meta of disliking people who think 'bus' as soon as a scum is lynched).

I've got him as non-groupscum for now, unless it becomes clear we have multiple groups.

Your point?

My point is saying 'unless you think his predecessor did scummy things' is somewhat redundant when said predecessor is BM, who always does scummy things.

Fonz, why the vote on armix....

and your thoughts, is it possible for the same alignment to have two multi-voters?

Well, I don't see two multivoters. I see what is in effect a mason pair under the control of a single player, and one player that has a multivote in specific circumstances. I also see the existence of a kingmaker, that renders multiple votes ineffective on the day (s)? it's used. When you add in whatever powers scum might have, sure, it's totally possible.

AS for Armlx: SSF wasn't on the Schiz wagon, attacked Nocmen who is fairly likely town, attacks Nocmen and Thyroid with fairly bad arguments (the first worst than the second, though note how he attacks Thyroid for promoting his tickets after having bought one himself) and subtly defends JDodge.

[The Fonz]

TSS- could you give a one-line reason for why each of your players is in the category they are?

[The Fonz]

Do you accept?

Rearrange the following to form a well known phrase or saying:

out, ass, it, Blow, your.

[The Fonz]

Unvote, vote: The Fonz

Had you accepted, you would have put two free votes at the disposal of people you personally considered to be guaranteed town. (You will note that I made no provision that you would have to listen to

me

.) I can only attribute your refusal to a wish not to be a Judas.

OK, let me explain what's wrong with this.

It meant getting me an extra two votes, but requiring me to use it on only those players

you

didn't consider obvtown. Since there's only six players not on that list, one is me, and the chances are we were going to lynch another today, then my vote is essentially beholden to you. So it's a case of me getting an extra vote, but only if YOU like it, which actually means that the pair of us have a collective vote which can be used if the two of us agree.

Plus, you haven't explained the rationale of your list despite repeated requests.

Basically, your offer was scummy as hell, and any town player in their right mind would have rejected it.

Oh, the joys of additional votes.

vote: The silent speaker, the silent speaker

[The Fonz]

I repeat again, answer the questions from last page and stop dodging the issues.

WHAT ISSUES? I listed people who were obvtown, explaining that all of them fell into at least one of three categories (some fell into more):
1. Town by investigation.
2. Pro-town use of role.
3. Sound scumhunting with no red flags.

You and Fonz wanted me to specify who fell into which category. But you and FOnz are probably scum, so I see no reason I should help you.

I wanted you to give any kind of reason at all to justify the inclusion of those names on the list.

On my list there were perhaps three people a reasonable person could argue are not obvtown --

That's your opinion. Also, you're backtracking- you were previously making out like they were all obvtown.

note that we are not reaching whether a reasonable person could argue that they are not town, only whether they are not

obv

town. There is no reason a pro-town Fonz should have even the slightest interest in voting anyone on that list, so a pro-town Fonz gives up NOTHING.

BULLSHIT.

As for the notion that "my vote is essentially beholden to you" -- baloney. First of all, you are not guaranteed to have those votes, and I explicitly specified that this only applies to the extras.

True, although, woops, look what's happened since then! I've gained a second vote, with no strings attached! Go me! If it's acceptable to take your offer, why couldn't someone else undercut you with a less restrictive offer? You are not the only one who can QFT me.

Second, even if you don't think too highly of me, you have your pick of eight players to follow, and if you don't like where one of them is voting, you can simply

follow one of the others

. If you don't like where six of them are voting but are also pro-town yourself, something is wrong with your brain.

Or theirs.

If our whole obvtown contingent is voting

you

when you're providing them with an extra two votes, you can bet there will be a damned good reason why.

So now they're all obvtown again?

And I made a point of NOT tying your extras to me personally, so that's a lie, too.

You told me I couldn't vote you. You told me I couldn't vote half the players in the game. That's pretty much leaving me beholden to you any way you slice it. You also said 'y

Sir Tornado, I know I'm pro-town and I put myself in the "sound scumhunting" category by default (since obviously I wouldn't say anything I thought was unconvincing). I think my attack on JDodge, FOS of Schism,

You think an

FOS

on a scum whilst pushing a counterwagon to that scum's wagon should put you in the

town

column?

You also said this:

Unvote, vote: The Fonz

Had you accepted, you would have put two free votes at the disposal of people you personally considered to be guaranteed town.

Which is a flat-out lie. I never agreed the people on your list were town.

Armlx, the to-avoid list is of the obvious town. The restriction is only nominally of

my

choosing.

It's

your

opinion on who's obvtown, which I disagree with in at least one significant respect. I won't vote for anyone

I

think is obvtown- your attempt to tell me what to think is just shit.

How is armlx scum? Oh lordy me, let me count the ways.

-- He is not on The List.

TSS thinks armlx is scum, because TSS doesn't think armlx is obvtown.

-- He is attempting to portray as irrational my considering myself as town.

No, he's accurately portraying as scummy your lumping yourself in with the 'obvtown.'

-- He has opposed, and is continuing to oppose, a plan that would have given the town two free votes

guaranteed to not be guided by scum.

Inside knowledge. You can only say this if you know me to be town.

[The Fonz]

Scum as kingmaker? Even temporarily? Probably not.

If scum couldn't make their buddies king, it might work.

[The Fonz]

Note: I have just returned from the land that Mafia forgot (aka my parents') and should catchup within 24hrs, but I'm pretty knackered right now.

I'm assuming TSS claimed something fairly convincing, since day's still going.

[The Fonz]

unvote: TSS, TSS

My re-read just leaves me thoroughly confused.

[The Fonz]

That being said, something is either broken or scum-driven, here. Never really payed attention to the fact that every last "dead" player who was Town is now alive(Twomz, Shanba, Nocmen). This makes me worry about TSS.

It is noteworthy that every resurrector i've ever seen was one-shot. A power to resurrect any dead town as confirmed town, and do it multiple times, seems incredibly broken.

[The Fonz]

I don't see why not in either case.

[The Fonz]

Can or have done?

[The Fonz]

Was going to use my multivote to start a stark wagon, so happy one has gone off in its absence (still waiting on MoS).

Also want clarification outta Twomz.

[The Fonz]

Are you? I thought at least one other did.

[The Fonz]

I've just found out that for today, my vote is double, which I'm willing to use on stark.

[The Fonz]

Also, just fyi, no-one has QFTed me yet...

[The Fonz]

Unvote
Vote Kscope

The targets are running out.

Still in the middle of my reread.

Scope, though? Seems fairly likely innocent to me.

[The Fonz]

I'm actually so confused here for once I don't disagree with massclaim.

[The Fonz]

Oh, and fwiw i've seen scum inventors before.

[The Fonz]

Popcorn.

Is it just me, or is all we do in this game to run someone up to claim, then conclude from their role they can't be scum?

[The Fonz]

Is it just me, or is all we do in this game to run someone up to claim, then conclude from their role they can't be scum?

Not

all

. I think you, for example, are scum in spite of your claim.

Well yes, but that does have an awful lot to do with you having rocks for brains.

[The Fonz]

Oh, I believe you have the double vote, Fonz. I just think you have it as scum.
.

Oh, I get that you do. It's also obvious that you only started suspecting me because I rejected your offer,

which WAS really scummy.

[The Fonz]

unvote

jediknight
Sir Tornado
Belgarion
curiouskarmadog
Simenon
The Fonz
Twomz
Nocmen
TSS

The above listed players (apart from you) have already claimed, so if it is one of us, then you might want to claim that. I don't remember whether mneme has claimed or not.

I haven't fullclaimed. Oman claimed part of the role.

So L-1, and I have nothing to defend. Except to point out that I have been very willing to help and cooperated. So when/if you do the deed you will all be greatly disappointed for not giving me a chance.

Except, you know, all the things that your predecessor did and didn't do, and the scumminess of your claim.

You say I must be scum because I claim the most used scum claim. I know it the most used scum claim so why would i claim it if i were scum. That is WIFOM, that is classic WIFOM.

I've got to admit, I admire the audacity of making a wifom defence and then claiming that you shouldn't be lynched because it's wifom.

OH, THE HORROR!

If ZONEACE is next in your list then why are you opposed to him claiming today Armlx?

I would request people not to hammer until we have all the claims.

I didn't believe we were massclaiming? And I'm capable of hammering on my own i think, so be clear what you're expecting to see, and quick.

[The Fonz]

I voice my support for a massclaim.

I don't know why people aren't claiming now... the mafia being able to prioritize shouldn't matter at this point since we should be able to lynch them off in the next 2 or 3 days.

BTW, where is fonz?

Funny you should mention it, just returned to the site today.

My claim: I am a bookmaker. Each night I can make predictions as to who will die that night, and who will be lynched the following day. Every correct prediction will result in the chances of a nightkill on me failing increase by a quarter, but each incorrect one will increase the chances of a doc protect failing, down to a 50% floor.

Same thing with lynches: a correct prediction gives me 25% lynch protection, which can be added together, but each incorrect one millerizes me slightly: it adds 10% to the likelihood of a cop finding me guilty, down to a floor of 50%.

I believe I have been wrong on all the lynches: I'm not going to disclose, for obvious reasons, how many times I've guessed right on NKs.

Day 1: Belgarion Lynch
Day 2: Kscope Lynch
Day 3: UA Lynch
Day 4: Kison Lynch
Day 5: Stark Lynch

This is in addition to the QFT power listed above.

I now warmly await the dumbass arguments that a potentially bulletproof, unlynchable, protown multivoter is broken.

[The Fonz]

? Especially

with

a known resurrector in the game.

So someone who resurrects dead players as confirmed town isn't broken?

[The Fonz]

OH, THE HORROR!

Vote Mneme

I could vig The Fonz. This will test his bullet proof claim.

I haven't claimed bulletproof, dumbass.

Reading is tech.

[The Fonz]

[quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"]Can we get a lynch like now?[/quote]

Not until ST repents of his silly plan to vig me.

[The Fonz]

[quote="armlx"][quote="The Fonz"][quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"]Can we get a lynch like now?[/quote]

Not until ST repents of his silly plan to vig me.[/quote]

Not happening. Its good idea.[/quote]

It's utterly ridiculous. Who the hell ever heard of a scum bookkeeper?

There's a really fucking obvious reason why book-keepers can't be scum. Think about it....


That's right, the scum KNOW WHO THEY ARE NIGHTKILLING! Therefore it would be rather easy to predict them, wouldn't it?

[The Fonz]

Fonz

A) what does the bookkeeper thing have to do with anything

It's my role!

B) the lynch aspect of the role applies.

What?

[The Fonz]

That's ridiculous, arm... I wasn't in any danger before the massclaim, and frankly people were assuming that the QFT was the whole of my role, which, if I were scum, I could have just gone along with, and no-one would have batted an eyelid.

And Bookmaker isn't absurd... I believe there was one in at least one previous designer game.

[The Fonz]

Yes, and TSS was omgusing me for not going along with his incredibly scummy plan. On which you agreed with me, but are not using against me.

[The Fonz]

What? Please, tell me what those things are. Because as far as I'm concerned, nothing has really changed with regard to me, but you've done a 180.

On a side note, I'm actually flattered you think I could make this shit up, but it's still ridiculous. The only plausible explanation is that I DO have this role, and that it is protown.

[The Fonz]

Simenon: I disagree. The only reason for Fonz to be so desperate not to be vigged is that he is scum and knows what vigging will cost his side.

Yes, because if I'm telling the truth, me being vigged won't cost my side at all...

Contrast armlx's equanimity to the prospect of being lynched tomorrow on policy if SSF should wake up dead; this is because armlx knows that his lynch will aid the town's best chance of winning. The same applies to mneme's consent to his own lynch today.

You're quite right there's a contrast: you're quite wrong in which way it goes. In what way is it ever 'the town's best chance of winning' to kill a town player, barring 2-1-1? Town players should fight to the last breath.

Also, there are plenty of other reasons why Fonz must die.

Name 'em, smartass.

But without a counter-theory, which he has not and cannot have, he has no reason to be angry. His claim brings us no reason to believe it is true and his play gives us no reason to think he is town.

What do you mean, which I cannot have? There's plenty of reason to think someone other than me is the scum.

And I'd say that objectively, rejecting your offer was a clear town tell.

[The Fonz]

Your plan involves vigging me. Therefore, it's 'going wrong' from the outset. What use is a plan to stop scum doing this and that when it involves killing off a powerful town role anyway?

[The Fonz]

How could any plan lead to a town loss in a single night?

[The Fonz]

How could any plan lead to a town loss in a single night?

Ok, then how does my plan NOT lead to a town win?

Your plan involves directing the death of a town player, ie doing the scum's job for them. Therefore, it obviously makes a town win LESS likely, doesn't it?

[The Fonz]

Except that it won't work, because almost certainly at least one of the claimed protective roles is lying.

[The Fonz]

Gimme the evening to get my thoughts down. That's all i ask.

[The Fonz]

Wahoo! Not only am I alive, and my persecutors dead, but I predicted stark's death overnight (not that hard, given 'the plan') and now have +25% NK immunity.

I only regret that, thinking i was going to die, I didn't bother to get the rest of you to QFT me up just in case. (Well, that and the fact I was so angry at arm/TSS that I never got around to writing up the analysis i was planning, and now have to do over).

Plan went wrong, didn't it?

It should be fairly easy to see who didn't stick to the plan, scummy as it was... let me re-read.

[The Fonz]

I'm willing to say that I had *some* chance of nk immunity last night, and that I have more tonight. I'm not willing to specify quite how much.

The big flaw in TSS' argument against me was that my role is more likely to end up a multivoting, unprotectable miller, than a bulletproof unlynchable.

I still find it hard to believe that TSS' role worked perfectly as advertised. Too broken.

[The Fonz]

I think we should action claim pretty much immediately, SSF32.

[The Fonz]

I'm not liking this night kill immunity stuff by The Fonz, paired with an extra vote and being still a bit suspicious from the plan going wrong.

Vote: The Fonz

How does the plan going 'wrong' make me more suspicious? You'd think, given that Sir T has claimed to have tried to kill me, that he's either lying or my role is what I say it is (which makes no sense as scum). None of the actions that apparently 'went wrong' were performed by me. So how, in a million bloody years, does the plan going wrong implicate me?

[The Fonz]

Sigh, why are people becoming more and more sure I'm not town, the more evidence arises pointing the other way?

That's four people saying they'll vote me. What's your reason? Do you still buy armlx/tss' positions? Do you think I'm pulling a 'flying pumpkin' gambit? Do you really think bulletproof multivoting Godfather is a viable role? Furthermore, given the difficulty scum will have in killing me and the additional power i can wield with my multivote, do you actually think there is any player in the entire game we need to confirm more than me?

[The Fonz]

Ugh. Screw you guys. Ever considered giving reasons?

There's absolutely no excuse for quicklynching like that. Take this one to the bank- at least half that wagon are scum.

[The Fonz]

Yes. The scum undoubtedly have something.

Which is why none of the 'confirmed' should be treated as such.

Today went down with no discussion, there was not even any suggestion that i was actually scummy. Four unreasoned votes in the space of about four hours. Those of you who are town, you should be absolutely hanging your heads in shame. You're all established players here, and you've played like the dumbest n00bs imaginable. I mean, y'all didn't consider me scummy enough to lynch previously- and the evidence of me-town is stronger today than it's ever been.

[The Fonz]

Can you target the dead?

I never targetted you, so you're safe to look at me if you want to find out whether ST really did attempt to kill me...

[The Fonz]

So waddaya know, Oman/TSS' plan which couldn't possibly lose the game for town in fact, lost the game for town. Who could have predicted it.

What? Everyone? Oh, right.