Elemental Mafia- Game Over!

[mneme]

VM agree that the multibandwagon is a powerful tool and we must not waste it.

Hmm. Dice!

Original Roll String: 1d23

1 23-Sided Dice: (23) = 23

[mneme]

vote: Kabenon007 (random)

[mneme]

time is of the essence, so

unvote
vote: . Elvis Knits

But taffmaster's next on my list.

[mneme]

unvote
vote: Taffmaster

Not interested in lynching a claimed roleblocker. At least, not yet.

[mneme]

Let's just lynch him(Taff). Aside from the scummeter being off the scale, I don't want to listen to his winging all game.

[mneme]

Mizzy, it's like being killed. You're no longer active with your original goal. Instead, you've reentered the game with your new goal.

Yes, this means that unlike dead townie (who still wins if the town does), a townie who is recruited now does -not- win if the town does; their goal has changed. It's why I don't like cult games that much (but I joined tis one anyway).

vote: Mizzy

[mneme]

A few things to comment on since the last time I'm posted.

Hmm. I'm voting for Pooky? Must have been a replacement somewhere in there; don't remember doing that...

Well, I suppose that we should consider the fact that the CR's saw this bum rushing as a possibility and refrained from recruiting anyone in an effort to make us do their dirty work for them.

I don't like this...I'm caught between thinking that CRs are leading the charge, and that they're likely to be the "calm voices" speaking against the (correct) strategy of "bandwagon early, bandwagon often, lynch pretty often too" the town has been following.

OTOH,

Also, I agree with farside. It does us no good for townie who are -3 or 2 away to just give up. An inventor is a valuable role, if he had claimed that, I would have believed him, because I was just something like an inventor, besides, it seems like there are many odd roles in this game.

Is quite correct; people (on both sides) were getting into the fallacy of assuming people should be lynched just because they get a bandwagon -- when, in fact, the nature of the bandwagon is just as important as the person on the receiving end; correct strategy leads to a lot of lynches in this style of game, but also a lot of bandwagons that don't lead to lynches. Mostly, it just leads to faster play.

Hopefully, if anything good comes out of the mod-imposed lynch limit, (aside from, you know, a more fun game that doesn't end on Day 1 with one person left, after a statistical implosion), it's people -not- giving up as soon as they get bandwagoning, but instead following the normal course of things -- only faster.

Muerto vs Macavenger: Macavenger is trivially correct here. Assuming there are no extra scum roles, we have 5 starting scum, and...hmm. A recruiter will fail if they hit another recruiter (3), a cop (2), the SK (1), the Jester (1), an average of 2 people blocked by other recruiters, and, a dudge in jail (1), and let's estimate 2 more nonrecruitable townies. We know nobody dead was recruited, so lets assume they weren't targetted (fudging, but I've got several other fudge factors here, so let's hope they cancel out). So that's 11/19 of a new recruit for each recruiter (19 choices, of which 8 will fail) -- or 2ish new recruits each night. So there are 7 scum. However, of those 7 scum, the dude put in jail cannot be three of them (not a recruit, not Wayne). So his odds of being scum is only 4/19 -- as opposed to 7/19 for anybody else.

Overall, not liking Muerto's play here at all, actually:

If we're lynching him now cause we're lazy shrug I guess...

Vote: TSN

Someone hammer already lol. I'm used to small games where we care who dies hehe.

Yes, we do very much care about who dies here, why do you ask? The game mechanics just favor us playing Faster. This response seems pretty opprotunistic, actually.

unvote
vote: Muerrto
IGMEOY: Pooky. Suspission isn't dropped just because of a replacement.

[mneme]

Sorry for the mis-quoting, btw. I HATE that

requires quotes for the username, whereas &#91] requires -not- using quotes. I mean, WTF?

Muerto vs Macavenger: Macavenger is trivially correct here. Assuming there are no extra scum roles, we have 5 starting scum, and...hmm. A recruiter will fail if they hit another recruiter (3), a cop (2), the SK (1), the Jester (1), an average of 2 people blocked by other recruiters, and, a dudge in jail (1), and let's estimate 2 more nonrecruitable townies. We know nobody dead was recruited, so lets assume they weren't targetted (fudging, but I've got several other fudge factors here, so let's hope they cancel out). So that's 11/19 of a new recruit for each recruiter (19 choices, of which 8 will fail) -- or 2ish new recruits each night. So there are 7 scum. However, of those 7 scum, the dude put in jail cannot be three of them (not a recruit, not Wayne). So his odds of being scum is only 4/19 -- as opposed to 7/19 for anybody else.

My arithmetic is trivially false here. I counted 8 failures out of 19, but it's actually closer to 12/19 because I couldn't add. Making the 19 20 (because one has to count our dead cop, as she was nonrecruitable), and dropping the 12 to 11 to account for the likelihood that other now-dead people were targets, that's 9/20 chance of success per recruiter, or 36/20 new recruits average last night. But that's close enough to "2" for my above math to work ok.

[mneme]

Xtoxm: She seemed to be expressing a pro-scum viewpoint, which is a scumtell. Could see this as an unrecruited townie, but could also see it as a CR playing townie.

[mneme]

unvote
Vote: DragonsofSummer

Yeah, not getting a sign of DoS doing much scumhunting here...

Oh, re my tag complaint, which I fubarred -- [quote="user"] requires the presence of double-quotes, whereas [url=http://whatever] requires an absense of double-quotes. Very annoying.

[mneme]

Vote stays, for obvious reasons. Don't believe the claim, and it's unconfirmable; if it is true, that's not much of a loss, either.

Opprotunist? I noticed scumtells from DoS, and I was right; he was sending scumtells. (after all, he's either scum or "neutral").

[mneme]

first off, it is in towns best interest to lynch many, quickly. it is in cults interest to not lynch. The more we lynch, the less likely they will be able to build up. In reality, cult has no reason to want to see 10 town dead, ...

I'm curious what some other more experienced players think of Korlash's logic about finding scum here.

His basic premise is complete bunk, but his conclusions aren't awful.

Certainly, before we had a limit, it was in the town's interest to lynch and get info/eliminate scum quickly (not so much to elimnate recruitable townies as to get BW info and kill scum), whereas scum, while having a strong incentive to use the bandwagon to kill competing scum and townies, was statistically served with a lower kill rate.

Also, I don't think much more needs to be said about jedi.

Vote: jediknight

. I think he semi-claimed unrecruitable earlier. If you are an unrecruitable power role jedi, you'd better full claim, and hope it's testable.

I'm not liking Jedinight or elvis_knits much at the moment. OTOH, with what's likely to be 5 unconnected scum + ~2 recruits, there's no reason they both can't be scum.

vote: elvis_knits

[mneme]

... a SK is not a vig.

The thing to keep in mind is that with multiple lynches, the SK serves -no- useful protown purpose; He's just another scum of the many we need to eliminate to win. Sure, eventually we can only win by playing off scum against other scum -- but that's as true for the cults as it is for the SK.

Hammer time.

unvote
vote: Wayne (jediknight)

[mneme]

Ok, that being said -- I voted for elvis because I was getting scummy vibes from her (and Jedi, but hey), and while I vagule remembered that she had a claim out, I didn't remember quite what it was. It -is- interesting that we have an apparently flavorless roleblocker -and- a jailkeeper (or is there flavor associated with one or both of those roles?), and I don't really trust the former claim (the latter is confirmed, which helps a great deal).

Can anyone articulate the case against armix?

[mneme]

FWIW, I have to agree with this; the point of lynching two more people today is to get useful bandwagon data, not to lynch for the sake of lynching. If we run five more people up but only lynch one, that might very well be more useful than lynching two people quickly.

unvote
vote: Lowell

I'm guessing that some over-pushing quicklynch are trying to ride the bandwagon to a useless town slaughter.

[mneme]

Muetero: I don't see any reason why not. It -is- a valid perspective on the current approach; more lynches = more info = good. It's just also wrong, largely by emphasis.

Vote stays.

[mneme]

(that said, muerto has a good point on xtoxm).

[mneme]

unvote
vote: armlx

Ok, DGB. Let's see what you got.

[mneme]

Ok, DGB. Let's see what you got.

She can't have anything. She was supposedly jailed last night.

vote mneme

True. I'd forgotten that.

OTOH, what she has in plain sight -- she has evidence of a working jailkeeper role, which puts doubt on the supposed RB role. What kind of mod would put an RB and a jailkeeper in the same game.

For our last lynch of the day, taking good odds of lynching a counterclaimed recruiter against the unlikely chance that he's actually a dupe-role roleblocker instead is an excellent plan -- the odds of a roleblocker blocking a scum at this point isn't that high, the use of a roleblocker to -find- scum is nil (since all living known scum don't have to kill, we cannot guess someone is scum just because they were blocked and we got fewer kills than we expected), and frankly, the odds of him actually being a RB isn't that high either.

[mneme]

Sounds good. Andycyca has been pretty useless, and that's as good a chance of finding cls as we're likely to get unless we start testing the rb claim (and while that -does- have a high probability of killing cult, it also might just help the scum)

unvote
vote: andycyca

[mneme]

Yes. It's a believable claim and with four scumgroups, even if he does get recruited, it's likely his result will still be useful.

unvote

[mneme]

Ug. Lynching a temp cop = not on our todo list. (outing one, not so much either)

vote: cavebear

[mneme]

CB: various random scummy bits I remember. Your assumption that I was specifically picking somone on the wagon to vote was spot-on.

[mneme]

Claim : Townie
Look at my posts and decide for yourselves if i'm a good lynch , rather than the lurking part.

Yes. Yes, you are.

unvote
vote: ooba

[mneme]

Am I missing something? If there isn't any compelling reason not to, I think we have to lynch Korlash -- discussing scum strategy in public in this kind of game favors scum -far- more than it favors town.

FOS: Korlash

[mneme]

vote: Korlash

I said it yesterday, and I'll say it again today; directing the cults only serves the scum. And claiming that logic and reason is irrelevant isn't helping your case at all.

Lowell isn't uninteresting -- but Korlash is far more scummy, IMO.

(no reason they can't both be scum, mind).

[mneme]

This is arguably true, but it doesn't make Korlash scum. Why would a cultist be posting hints for the other cults?

Because at the moment, the town is a bigger threat to the cults than they are to one another. Based on my math of yesterday, I'd guess there were 6 cultists going into Day 1. Yesterday killed a lot of innocent townies, but also revealed some recruitables, so let's say two more cultists going into today -- 8 cultists total, given the plethora of things that can block a recruit. So the town is probably 50% town, 50% scum -- which means that by far, the largest voting block is the town block -- and we have more "kills" than the scum does; 6 per day, as opposed to four kill^recruits at night.

The scum's biggest weakness is that they cannot coordinate -- the individual cults can, but do not want to reveal themselves to one another (of course), and even if they did, their only means of coordination is through public play. The town -can- coordinate, but we don't know who's town and who is scum (naturally).

The end result, in my mind, is to treat any attempt to direct the scum with -extreme- suspicion. It's not in their interests to listen to you, and if it is, I don't want you telling it to them. And either way, there's a good chance anyone trying to direct the scum is, in fact, scum.

[mneme]

Xtoxm: !? For bodyguard = doc with benefits, the anwer here is easy.

That's like asking why a RB would want to use his role on N0 -- only moreso.

[mneme]

Armix, to clarify, Lowell did not claim the traditional "bodyguard" -- he claimed "doc + protect target from recruitment" with the role name of "bodyguard".

And actually, checking the wiki, bodyguard has rangedi n the past from "different name for a doc" to "super-doc who kills the attacker" to the martyr type that some people think of when they think "bodyguard".

[mneme]

How does it help for -anyone- for people to claim recruitable/nonrecruitable?

Doesn't this just help the scum make recruits that aren't going to bounce? The first few may make the scum more likely to collide -- but the more recruitables we reveal, the -more- likely the scum are to successfully recruit.

Macavenger hasn't claimed, right?

Still not convinced on the Lowell BW -- though it seems like we have a -lot- of protective roles.

[mneme]

Kison: Nobody. Have you stopped being a cult recruiter?

But that's the problem. There's no right, protown answer to "are you recruitable?" Beyond "screw you."

It's obvious that -most- unclaimed non-cult roles are recruitable. If they aren't, the game isn't playable for the cults, and that just doesn't make much sense given the rest of the game.

But the only ones who benefit from finding out -which- roles are recruitable -- and more specifically, which aren't, are the scum.

Town have no protown interest to tell the truth on this question -- nor do they have any interest in getting a truthful answer, aside from setting up lynches days in the future. Except that for a town win, we don't -have- days; we need to nail recruiters -today-.

Why haven't we lynched Korlash yet?

[mneme]

That's 8. This day running way too slow, and while I'm not that happy with lynching a claimed doc, there's no reason at this point to believe he's a -town- doc, or even a doc at all.

Hammer time.

vote: Lowell

[mneme]

EDBP:

unvote
vote: Lowell

[mneme]

mneme should be next, IMO, unless he very quickly gives some indictaion he's actually paying attention or cares what's happening.

Still don't get how you've got the idea I'm not paying attention (or don't care what's happening). My last substantive point was not "platitudes" -- but the point that there's no reason to force out recruitability other than as WIFOM, and that doing so as habit hurts the town when bandwagons fail (and bandwagons -should- fail; we should not be lynching everyone we bandwagon; this should -not- be "randomly bandwagon the first 6 people who get a following", but I think some people are treating it that way).

[mneme]

Mac: no, I don't remember your claim. I have no memory these days, alas. Are you the Claimed Unrecruitable Jailer?

Regardless, of -course- I want to lynch people. I want to lynch scum. I'd have been happy to stay off the Lowell BW if I were more sure of his innocence, or if I thought anybody left on it was going to move. The problem is, we don't have one bandwagon to make today; we have 6, and succeed or fail, the Lowell BW was taking -way- too long (plus, I couldn't be sure that he wasn't scum). Basically, if you can't beat 'em, join them. (I'll be much less likely to do this for later bandwagons; IMO, the need for us to be sold on the target being scum for later bandwagons is -much- more significant later in the day, where the bandwagon is only about that person's lynch, not about several lynches down the line.) Note my -not- joining the 6th bandwagon yesterday, because I believed the target was innocent. And, what do you know? The target was innocent. Wasn't there some gloating around then too?

vote: Korlash

I'm happy to be on scumKorlash, but I might be persuadable about Pooky. Lurking=scum, particularly for experienced players.

[mneme]

Fascingating. Setting up lynches without seeing claims/results... Please, just play mafia.

vote: Pooky

We really cannot afford non-playing players.

[mneme]

armix: Truly? Let's look:

Erg0: ?
Armlx: No night action at least one night.
DrippingGoofBall: Confirmed a block/jail.
PookythemagicalBear (Rep. Mizzy): Claimed townie/that townies should wnat to be recruited
Cavebear with a toothache: Nada.
Kison: Nada
Dead Rikimaru (Rep. Rolandofthewhite): Nada
Macavenger: Claimed jailer
Mneme: No claims.
Andycyca: Claimed tracker, 2 results.
Xtoxm: no claims
Elvis Knits: claimed rb
Farside22: no claim
Muerrto: No claim.


WIth that list, I see 9 "fair game" players out of a 14 player town. Who am I missing?

[mneme]

armlx: so basically, your "plan" = massclaim?

[mneme]

unvote
vote: Cavebear

[mneme]

Cavebear is lying. Totally unbelievable claim. I think he was afraid he'd get lynched if he claimed townie.

Which is what I am. I'm not going to claim recruitable/nonrecruitable (though I won't be surprised if people assume one; I just think claiming r/nor is bad policy; it makes the town's job hard if I -don't- get lynched), but that's what I am.

Normally, I don't play Mafia on weekends (which is why getting lynched/BWed on weekends makes me a touch cranky), but I'm making an exception here; don't expect it to be repeated for the rest of the weekend.

Regardless,

confirm: vote: cavebear

[mneme]

Grats, town -- GG!

But yeah, kinda broken; I wasn't kidding when I said the town was a much greater threat to the scum than we were to one another (and I was underestimating how many recruits the scum did -- but then, I wasn't factoring in my first recruit failing and I think the town got lucky there). Given the lame odds of successful recruiting, the scum were probably better off killing for the first two nights to get the numbers reasonable and then trying for recruits -- but there was no way to know that.

Elivs, sorry for leaving you in a bad position -- but with your "I'm not saying whether I'm recruitable", you were an insanely good recruit possibility; I figured other recruiters might stay away, and the math of the game indicated that you had to be recruitable. I'm so sorry we never got to conspire; takes out half the fun of being a scumgroup -- if only it hadn't been proven that Adel had targeted me (and over the weekend, so I never got to post, and I suspect that influenced EK not bussing me, as I so richly deserved). As it was, I risked outing you when I sidereally defended you (though it fit my existing playstyle, which is why, I guess, people didn't notice that my "why are we trying to force recruitablity" was an indirect response to people trying to put EK in a no-win situation, thus a defense); I'm really glad that didn't get you lynched (no, math did that).

Oh, and I

♥

Adel! Night 1, I tried to recruit Adel...and she targetted me! oops. So I got that she was prolly someone I wanted dead (unrecruitable = cult or cop, most likely) -- but I was totally screwed! But cross targeting = MS love!

[mneme]

Adel: it didn't bother me that much, since I figured it was a totally wacky game anyway (multiple cults = good change of goal changes = wacky). But if I'd been taking the game seriously, I would have been annoyed.

What might work better would be a game with 4 cults, a kiling group, and the rest of the town as recruitable "survivors". No town goal at all -- so people don'g go from doing well with their current goal to losing in a cult,, and the "town" doesn't have to have a realistic chance of winning because the goal of the "townies" isn't for the town to win, but to get recruited into the winning cult.

Wacky, sure, but seems like it would have more of the flavor this game was trying for.

[mneme]

Elvis: *nod*. You might have done better if you bussed me, but I think the cults were pretty much hosed at that point.

I'm really surprised more power roles didn't get recruited.