Mafia 73: NEGWLTWWWTKY - Abandoned!

[Xylthixlm]

Hi all. I've just finished the extremely arduous task of going through the last three pages. I'll try to get up to speed as we go along. My impressions so far...

Vollkan is a much braver man than I.
ABR had a bunch of opinions.
I really wish ABR had given some reasons for his opinions.
Toaster Strudel seems to be the bandwagon of the moment.
There are a bunch of not-really-active people.
Setael is worrying me a bit. Her apparent target, Erg0, is also worrying me a bit.


Here's a few questions to help me get a feel for this game. Please answer your question if you are town. If you aren't town, you don't have to answer.

Vollkan, what do you think about Toaster Strudel?

Toaster Strudel, what do you think about Bookitty?

Bookitty, what do you think about Setael?

Setael, what do you think about IH?

IH, what do you think about Battle Mage?

Battle Mage, what do you think about Erg0?

Erg0, what do you think about zu_Faul?

zu_Faul, what do you think about the lurkers?

[Xylthixlm]

Xyl, any particular reasoning behind that list? I understand that it must be tough to replace into a game of this length, but that really looks like questioning for the sake of questioning to me.

Some of the questions are ones I think will have enlightening answers. Some of them are there mostly to make sure everyone gets a question. I tried to make sure that I asked each person about someone they haven't said much about (at least not in the pages I read).

In general, I find it very useful to ask for opinions on the people who aren't being actively discussed. It helps me get a sense of who is sincerely looking for scum, and who isn't.

[Xylthixlm]

I've done a bit more reading. I'm not really sure what the Toaster Strudel wagon is about, so

unvote

if I inherited ABR's vote.

I am

so

glad I replaced ABR instead of Panzerjager.

[Xylthixlm]

I wasn't here for the Quagmire drama, but my feeling is that you should totally ignore the not-having-read-role-PM claim and just react to his actual play.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't see any particular reason to trust a claim of not having read his role PM. If he was acting scummy, you shouldn't let him off the hook, regardless of his claim. If he wasn't acting scummy then it shouldn't be an issue.

[Xylthixlm]

Ok, so I read Quagmire's early posts. They're definitely not what I would call protown behavior. Seriously, if you're going to not read your role PM, you should at least try to play as if you read it and it said townie. Actually

claiming

that you didn't read your role PM is a horrible idea no matter what side you're on.

In other words, I have no idea if Quagmire is scum, but I'm quite sure he's a bad player.

[Xylthixlm]

I would be really happy if we never mentioned Quagmire in this game again. This discussion is making my brain scream.

Roger.

[Xylthixlm]

Players who have posted in the last week (9): zu_Faul, Xylthixlm, Bookitty, Setael, hasdgfas, vollkan, Battle Mage, Erg0, Toaster Strudel
Players who haven't posted in the last week (6): Sir Tornado, JordanA24, IH, YagamiLight, Panzerjager, schizmatized

I don't really see anything we can do other than start lynching lurkers. Any suggestions on who should go first?

[Xylthixlm]

With 9 active players and 8 to lynch, we have basically no chance of lynching anyone

but

a lurker. Hopefully, a lurker wagon will at least get the game moving again, and we won't have to go through this again tomorrow...

[Xylthixlm]

Peers' death was certainly an interesting revelation, if ABR hadn't claimed Mason at the start of the day, I'd be pretty suspicious of him for his continued pushing on Peers to claim his target, which would achieve nothing for the town, barring some very stupid scum/SK/Vig, and give the scum an advantage by telling them who the Doc thinks is town and maybe a power-role.

Normally, knowing who thinks who is town is

good

. Why shouldn't the doc disclose targets? I'm really curious, because my experience in IRC games has been that the town is helped by outed power roles (of any sort) claiming their targets.

Lynching Lurkers=

BAD!

. I cannot think of a more opportunistic vote than a vote on somebody who's lurking because of lurking. That lurker will not be able to defend himself until he comes back, which may be too late, that lurker may not come back at all, putting the replacement (if there is one) under great pressure when they arrive, and the lurker might not even have a chance to claim if he is a power-role.

This seems odd. Yes, players who have totally abandoned the game should be replaced - but what about people who are still playing but contributing as little as possible? What is your strategy to prevent scum from lurking their way through the game?

[Xylthixlm]

I just use estimated scum probabilities, and usually vote the person with the highest. Starting at 50% seems weird - is it just a more numerical way of expressing your subjective impressions?

[Xylthixlm]

Awesome.

[Xylthixlm]

Did a reread on Erg0. I don't like the way he tried to get Peers lynched when he (mistakenly) came up alive. Why try to lynch the claimed doc? That seems like doing the scum's work for them. Sure, he might have survived because he's scum... but there's no reason to lynch him immediately. If he's scum he would get caught when the real doc dies, and if he's the doc the scum would want to kill him before too long.

Vote Erg0

In other news, I'm pretty sure hasdgfas isn't scum. If I have time I'll see if there's anyone suspicious on his wagon.

[Xylthixlm]

Personally, I think if there's only four scum, then we've got a huge number of vanilla townies. Maybe two power roles at most. I think it's more likely that there's five scum and four power roles. I've been in a six-scum 19-player game, but that was two mafias in a no-cross-kill game, so I don't think we've got that many. Four or five makes the most sense...

Since you're in a mind to speculate, why do you think the name of the game is

NEGWLTWWWTKY

?

For the record, I thought each letter represented the first letter of a role in the game. For instance, there are 4 "W" which I thought to signify 4 werewolves. With

M

asons and

J

ailkeepers I have to reckon I supposed wrong.

This is very interesting, because it implies that if Toaster Strudel has a non-Villager role it starts with N, E, G, W, L, T, K, or Y. That excludes pretty much every role I can think of ... except Werewolf. (Nurse is possible, but it would imply the presence of a Doctor, and D isn't in the list.)

So either Toaster Strudel is a Villager and claimed unnecessarily, or he's a Werewolf and wasn't thinking hard enough before posting. Hmmm.

[Xylthixlm]

It's interesting that you see it that way, given that the delayed kill actually proved the basis for my vote was valid: If he was really the doctor I would have expected him to be killed overnight - and he was. There's only so long that you can leave someone alive and wait for them to be nightkilled, especially in a closed setup where you never know how close you are to losing. As much as people always say "well, the scum might have left him alive to create a WIFOM lynch", I rarely see it actually happen - especially with multiple killing groups as we have here.

It's obvious from the flavor that the werewolf kill was Yosarian2. That means that the scum group

did

leave him alive to create a WIFOM lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm betting that the scum noticed it already, so my bringing it up can't hurt.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm betting that the scum noticed it already, so my bringing it up can't hurt.

Except that it encourages role speculation from the general populace, which is seldom helpful to the town.

That makes it sound like you're not part of the general populace.

[Xylthixlm]

It's even in the first post. I checked.

[Xylthixlm]

schizmatized, why aren't you contributing?

[Xylthixlm]

The sad part is that as far as I can tell, nothing important

happened

day 1.

[Xylthixlm]

FoS: Toaster Strudel

for his incredibly opportunistic attempt to redirect suspicion to hasdgfas. hasdgfas isn't scum.

[Xylthixlm]

vollkan, why does your analysis of hasdgfas stop at the end of day 1?

[Xylthixlm]

FoS: Toaster Strudel

for his incredibly opportunistic attempt to redirect suspicion to hasdgfas. hasdgfas isn't scum.

Hasdagas practically just confessed.

He tripped on his semantic shoelaces.

I know what perspective tells look like. That isn't one of them.

[Xylthixlm]

I know what perspective tells look like. That isn't one of them.

Please explain.

hadgfas's post contains a counterfactual construction ("even if I were scum") which

requires

the rest of the sentence ("the others") to match the counterfactual. His use of "others" doesn't give any info because he would have to say it the same way no matter what his alignment.

[Xylthixlm]

vollkan, why does your analysis of hasdgfas stop at the end of day 1?

I couldn't glean anything significant from any of his posts coming after where I stopped.

I'm ... astonished. Really. I thought you were a good player.

[Xylthixlm]

Excellent.

In that case, you won't mind telling me precisely what I missed that was so significant?

Hasd has not cast a vote or FoS since post 73 - nor has he pushed any cases.

That's part of what's so significant.

[Xylthixlm]

That's part of what's so significant.

Explain.

Maybe later. I want to see if vollkan sees the same thing I do.

[Xylthixlm]

Certainly, I agree with you. That fits with the rest of his play for most of this game. He's only really gone against popular targets and his cases, most notably that on Peers, are lackluster.

He changed his mind on Peers, though.

Before

his retroactive death overnight.

[Xylthixlm]

Certainly, I agree with you. That fits with the rest of his play for most of this game. He's only really gone against popular targets and his cases, most notably that on Peers, are lackluster.

He changed his mind on Peers, though.

Before

his retroactive death overnight.

Explain.

When day 2 started, Peers was mistakenly listed as still alive. The game progressed for a while before the mod fixed the error and made Peers retroactively dead.

[Xylthixlm]

I was dropping hints to see who would figure out hasdgfas's role (he'd already outed himself). I'm very suspicious of vollkan for not admitting to seeing it in his PBPA, but maybe he's never seen CPR doc before.

The case for hasdgfas being CPR doc was pretty tight even before he claimed. First, Peers turns up alive. hasdgfas is surprised and concludes that either Peers is kill immune or someone tried to kill him. He says as much in thread. Some time later, Shanba reads the thread, notices that Peers should actually be dead, and retroactively kills him.

There's really no possible way for the claim to be fake. Try to think of a sequence of events that would lead to Peers showing up town, hasdgfas claiming CPR doc, and then Peers actually being dead. Any fake claim attempt would have been screwed up by the mod error.

As for the mod error itself, it's unlikely that Shanba would forget to resolve a normal night kill - but he might forget to have a CPR attempt kill the doc, especially if he was assuming that the scum would target Peers.

Everyone who jumped on hasdfas in the last few pages is

extremely

suspicious. More analysis when I get a chance.

[Xylthixlm]

FoS: Toaster Strudel

for his incredibly opportunistic attempt to redirect suspicion to hasdgfas. hasdgfas isn't scum.

How do you know that? Toaster seems to be pretty aggressive here, and I like that.

I knew that because I had already deduced that he was a CPR doc. That's why I said I was "pretty sure hasdgfas isn't scum" here.

[Xylthixlm]

Oh yeah. hasdgfas, for future reference... don't try to use CPR doc as a doc. Just don't. It's a vig role with a very minor bonus.

[Xylthixlm]

vollkan: me explaining my comments on Peers would involve a role claim. Do you want me to do that now?

No, but whatever your role is, all I want to know, is why you didn't target Quagmire, whose alignment we most sorely needed to settle?

What reason could there be to target Peers, who was condemned to die? Who would need to check up anything on Peers?

Interesting. DGB assumes without support that hasdgfas must have an information role.

Certainly not a cop, or a tracker, or anything else I can thinjk of, because they would know that it's a totally wasted investigation.

So does Toaster Strudel.

If hadf is our cop and he investigated the claimed doc last night, I give up. Town has no chance when our best power roles don't know what the hell they're doing.

He also shouldn't have outed himself so obviously, whatever he is. If he is town, I'm officially annoyed.

I'm really hoping he's scum at this point and that we have a real cop out there who will actually be useful.

Setael follows suit.

I have a theory, but I don't know if it's wise to say it at this point. Anything I can think of still leads to hasdf, if protown, having outed himself unnecessarily. So I'm still annoyed.

I don't think hasdf is the lynch for today. I think he's being wagoned to get a full claim out of him. I don't see any way his statements can be reconciled with him being scum.

Then Setael figures it out. This is

exactly

the protown reaction I was looking for. Go Setael!

This whole thing makes very little sense. I can't think of any information role that would give hasdfgas the knowledge that Peers was targeted for a kill and survived. A wathcer could see that he was targeted, but not the type of action that he was targeted for. A cop could see that he was innocent, but not whether he was targeted for a kill.

Erg0 fails to get the memo, and assumes that hasdgfas must be an info role just like DGB and TS did.

First conclusion: Many people

fail

at metagaming Shanba.
Second conclusion: DGB, TS, and Erg0 first assumed that hasdgfas was claiming an info role, and then tried to lynch him

before he could claim

.

FoS: DGB, TS, Erg0

Now I need to figure out which of those three we should lynch first.

[Xylthixlm]

Oops.

Stupid people with multiple accounts.

[Xylthixlm]

EBWOP:

FoS TS, TS, Erg0

[Xylthixlm]

FoS: Xylthixlm

for blatant revisionism.

Should I claim?

[Xylthixlm]

Did you see me ask you to?

Mason.

[Xylthixlm]

Post 1694: Bookitty, TS, schizmatized are voting hasdgfas. (3/8 to lynch)
Post 1727: vollkan votes hasdgfas. (4/8)
Post 1729: hasdgfas offers to claim.
Post 1751: Erg0 votes hasdgfas. (5/8)
Post 1753: hasdgfas claims.
Post 1756: Erg0 unvotes. (4/8)
Post 1781: vollkan unvotes. (3/8)
Post 1791: TS unvotes. (2/8)

Erg0 is right about his vote. TS's "I don't even want a claim" and "The only thing saving Hasdagas' bovine behind is the breadcrumb." really reek of scum to me.

unvote Erg0, vote Toaster Strudel

BTW, hasdgfas, should I pronounce your name "has dug fast" or "has dog face"?

[Xylthixlm]

I checked off against all the common town power roles (since I was concerned about that possibility), but couldn't justify what he had said from any such perspective.

So you

did

see that what he said was possibly a partial role claim. If that's the case, why did you leave it out of your PBPA?

[Xylthixlm]

If you can't say what you were trying to say in a post that takes less than one vertical screen, it probably isn't important enough for me to read.

[Xylthixlm]

Pushing town lynches and avoiding scumbuddy lynches are nearly universal scumtells. Not particularly reliable ones, but they do apply to everyone.

[Xylthixlm]

I love gut reads. Anyone can use protown logic as scum, but it's much harder to fake a protown gut.

[Xylthixlm]

I am a big believer in lynching anti-town players. Not only are they likely to be scum, but getting rid of them also helps the town directly.

[Xylthixlm]

So, do you feel that lurking=scummy?

I know I'm answering for him, but YES YES YES. Lurking is lazy, you are not helping the town at all, often you could be giving away that you're a power role, and it is making it impossible to tell who is scum lurking and who is just a terrible townie.

Lurking is anti-town behavior, 100%. Scum hate posting. Townies are lazy. If no townies are lazy, scum are in trouble.

QFT
[/hypocrisy]

[Xylthixlm]

I am a big believer in lynching anti-town players. Not only are they likely to be scum, but getting rid of them also helps the town directly.

I seem to recall you advocating this exact same position in Mafia 74 where you were mafia. Please provide me with a game where you have done this as town.

This one.

I assume you want a game where I can

prove

it. Unfortunately, I've only completed one forum game (Newbie 509), and I was scum there.

[Xylthixlm]

I try to lynch one of the players most likely to be scum.

I try to lynch one of the players who is being least helpful to the town.

Those two groups usually overlap quite a bit.

[Xylthixlm]

Well, my only evidence is almost a thousand games of chat mafia. I realize there are some differences between chat and forum.

[Xylthixlm]

IGMEO schismatized

[Xylthixlm]

unvote Toaster Strudel, vote schismatized

FoS Toaster Strudel

IGMEOY vollkan

[Xylthixlm]

At this point, I'm pretty sure Vollkan is town, which means that Quagmire was town, which is irritating.

Why are you sure vollkan is town?

[Xylthixlm]

vollkan, name four players you are reasonably sure are town.

[Xylthixlm]

That's not the way I play this game Xyl. I don't state alignments without having pbped. I play neutral until guilty or innocent and (you can meta me on this) I will only very rarely have anyone even slightly in the "innocent" classification.

So you are saying that you don't have a read on anyone until you analyze them, and when you analyze them you almost always find them scummy? That's a very convenient playstyle, especially when you're scum.

[Xylthixlm]

My approach to players who consistently play scummy is to consistently lynch them. It's worked so far, I don't see any reason to change it now.

[Xylthixlm]

unvote, vote vollkan

[Xylthixlm]

I'll answer your question if you answer mine.

[Xylthixlm]

I meant this one:

vollkan, name four players you are reasonably sure are town.

[Xylthixlm]

Now I'm

sure

vollkan is scum.

[Xylthixlm]

Vollkan is absolutely 100%

not

trying to seperate scum from town in this game. He needs more votes.

(Hint: We have two mostly-cleared players. Both of them came up at least 50% scum in his list above.)

[Xylthixlm]

I know the answer to this one too! (Though I disagree on the other one, Xyl. I think it's 60/40, not more.)

Hasdgfas being scum would require him to have correctly predicted that the mod would correct the night action results. That is

incredibly

unlikely.

[Xylthixlm]

There's no such thing as a wasted investigation, unless it's on someone who can be definitively cleared some other way.

[Xylthixlm]

Hmmm, I was figuring Hasdgfas had ASKED the mod to correct the night action results, which would provide the same result and which seems a reasonable thing for someone to ask.

Why would he ask? From a scum POV the obvious explaination for a missing kill is a doc or bulletproof, not mod error.

[Xylthixlm]

Ok, so I agree that hagsfaas is pretty much confirmed, but the other is you? Why?

I'm the dead mason's partner.

[Xylthixlm]

So... you think it's possible hasdgfas is mafia, Peers was the mafia kill, and both the other kills were caused by vigs/SKs?

[Xylthixlm]

Er, right. Forgot what the theme of this game is.

[Xylthixlm]

With the amount of effort vollkan is putting into

appearing

helpful, the fact that he isn't even keeping track of who is cleared is quite damning.

[Xylthixlm]

I am paying attention to what you are writing, and it is bullshit. There is

no

point to maintaining a "70% scum" rating on someone who is almost certainly town.

[Xylthixlm]

vollkan, there is an

extremely

large gap between "ignore him" and "70% scum". And even if you say your rating is based entirely on play, not on claim, the fact is that when I asked you to name people you thought were town you didn't name

anyone

. If your actual attention to the game was even a fraction of your displayed effort, you would have been able to name me and hasdgfas.

In short, the only conclusion I can draw from your actions is that you are not looking for protown players. And

that

tells me that you are scum.

[Xylthixlm]

I want Toaster Strudel's opinion on vollkan.

[Xylthixlm]

Actually, I think page 80 is an excellent time to vote people because they are useless.

unvote vollkan, vote schismatized

[Xylthixlm]

Ah, I now see the crux of your point, Xyl: it wasn't my ratings per se, but the fact I hadn't listed Cow and yourself as town.

As I have said, I was aware of the fact you had claimed. And I do reasonably think you are pro-town. At the point when you asked me the question, I responded by looking back at my PBPs. Nobody had less than 50%. I didn't factor the claims into my considerations when I answered, and I should have.

But you did not say that at the time you made the post. You can just make up bullshit right now. I'd like people for being accountable for what they write, so you should have provided us with your reasonings earlier! (isn't that like your Point of View, people are to be held acccountable?)

QFT

[Xylthixlm]

We're lynching schizmatized today and vollkan tomorrow. Voluntary cooperation is mandatory.

[Xylthixlm]

vollkan, when we lynch you you're going to complain about how you got lynched as scum despite the bandwagon on you being crap.

[Xylthixlm]

I honestly can't see a single reason not to lynch schismatized. Can you?

[Xylthixlm]

vollkan, when we lynch you you're going to complain about how you got lynched as scum despite the bandwagon on you being crap.

Am I to take this as you finally admitting that your 'case' against me is a load of rot?

Your complaint will be totally false, but you'll make it anyways.

[Xylthixlm]

zu_Faul, vollkan's system is a bit more informative than that. Although you do have a point.

vollkan, some questions: Should we interpret your percentages as accurate indications of your beliefs?

If not, what is the point of providing them?

If so, why didn't you believe that any players were cleared?

[Xylthixlm]

That system is so incredibly stupid that I can't believe you're not bullshitting.

[Xylthixlm]

Is Shanba even watching the thread? There hasn't been a vote count in a week and a half.

[Xylthixlm]

Oh, and I see he posted in V/LA that he'll be gone for the week. Wonderful.

[Xylthixlm]

You don't have to read all 80 pages. Just read day 2.

[Xylthixlm]

Ooo, backup mod. Thanks JDodge!

[Xylthixlm]

Vollkan, give us your opinion on Battle Mage vs Schismatized.

[Xylthixlm]

Can we just lynch schismatized? No one will miss him.

[Xylthixlm]

At this point I am not particularly willing to lynch anyone other than schismatized or vollkan.

[Xylthixlm]

On IRC, people who do nothing but make annoying 1-liners are scum 90% of the time.

[Xylthixlm]

I refuse to listen to your reasonable arguments.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm up for a modkill, but only if it includes everyone who isn't posting. Otherwise we should just lynch schis.

[Xylthixlm]

This is ridiculous. I'm not doing anything else in this game until schis is lynched.

[Xylthixlm]

Repeated for clarity: I am not doing

anything

else in this game until schismatized is lynched. If schismatized is not lynched, I am abandoning the game. This bullshit is simply not acceptable; I am not having fun playing. Schis goes or I do.

[Xylthixlm]

This game has had too many replacements already.

schis must be lynched.

[Xylthixlm]

Flameaxe, welcome to the top of my scumlist. Feel proud of yourself.

[Xylthixlm]

Interesting. I've completely lost track of my suspicions here.

I assume at least one of the night kills targeted hasdgfas, and was stopped by yet another doc-type role. Shanba seems to be fond of them this game.

[Xylthixlm]

The mafia kill targeted hasdgfas, but got stopped by a faith healer and/or nurse.

[Xylthixlm]

Not role info, just a guess.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm guessing hasdgfas targeted Setael...

[Xylthixlm]

Hi. I'm not reading 90 pages. Which do you think are most important? Like the last day? And which page would that start on?

Start on page 57 (the beginning of day 2).

[Xylthixlm]

Known town:
Kaleidoscope
Mastermind of Sin
Yosarian2
Peers
schismatized
Sikario0/Setael
hasdgfas*
ABR/Xylthixlm*

End of day 1 vote count:
10: Kscope (Zu_Faul, Yosarian2, schismatized, Quagmire, Erg0, ABR, Setael, Sir T, MoS, Panzerjager, hasdgfas)
5: Quagmire (Battle Mage, JordanA24, TS, Bookitty, Peers)
3: MoS (Kscope, IH, TS)
1: Peers (YagamiLight)

Zu_faul, Quagmire/Vollkan, Erg0, Sir T/spambot, Panzerjager -1
IH, TS -1
YagamiLight/Elvis_knits -1

End of day 2 vote count:
8: schismatized (Spambot, hasdgfas, Xylthixlm, Panzerjager, TS, schismatized, vollkan, Erg0)
2: TS (IH, Battle Mage)
1: Battle Mage (Flameaxe)
1: Spambot (JordanA24)
1: Zu_Faul (Setael)

Not Voting:YagamiLight, schismatized

Spambot, Panzerjager, TS, vollkan, Erg0 -1
YagamiLight -1

Current scores:
Vollkan -2
Erg0 -2
Spambot -2
Panzerjager -2
TS -2

Zu_faul -1
IH -1
Elvis_knits -1
YagamiLight -1

JordanA24 +0
Flameaxe +0

Conclusion: Not enough data. We need to catch a scum.

[Xylthixlm]

Rereading with notes. Since keeping my notes straight between home/work would be hard, I'll just post them here.

--Page 57--
ABR claims mason
TS suspicion on hasdgfas
TS weird post about game name/role distribution
Panzerjager votes TS
Jordan votes SirT, FOS's Quagmire
Setael votes hasdgfas
Erg0 votes Peers
hasdgfas starts tipping his hand role-wise
Erg0 interrogates hasdgfas
--Page 58--
Quagmire votes Bookitty
YagamiLight doesn't understand hasdgfas either
IH FOS's TS
Peers holds his only card a bit too close to his chest
SirT defensive vs Jordan
hasdgfas suspicion on SirT
Erg0 suspicion on SirT
IH prods Peers to give result
ABR prods Peers to give result
Erg0 backs up Peers for not giving result
--Page 59--
Peers makes ABR cry
Erg0's logic makes

me

cry
IH FOS Peers
TS suspicion list (post 1459)
Will vote: Panzerjager, hasdgfas, zu_Faul, SirT, Setael
Won't vote: ABR, Bookitty, Jordan, Erg0
TS supports Peers non-claim
Peers was actually dead all along! And he never revealed his target...
zu_Faul suspicion on TS
TS is ignoring Quagmire
TS suspicion on hasdgfas
ABR asks why Peers died
ABR votes Erg0
Quagmire wagons Bookitty (without stating case)

Work calls. More later.

[Xylthixlm]

I looked at other players. I even mentioned some in the post I voted you. And even if I didn't, you have no way of knowing who I looked at and who I didn't, so it's WIFOM imaginary stuff. I'm not following BM. If I was, I would be voting zu-faul.

No, nice pretend job. You know exactly who BM is voting for, and who his most recent case was about. And you may have cursorily glanced at other players, but a quick glance isn't good enough. It's not too late elvis. Why don't you take an in-depth look at BM? vollkan? Erg0? zu_Faul? I mean, serious looks.

This is an excellent suggestion.

Oh, and since I love making vollkan's life difficult - vollkan, what are your current scumminess numbers?

[Xylthixlm]

I'm here. I just haven't seen anything happening.

[Xylthixlm]

Flameaxe, welcome to the top of my scumlist. Feel proud of yourself.

Vote Flameaxe

Also happy lynching: vollkan, Toaster Strudel.

[Xylthixlm]

I would love to hear why. You never did after all.

I don't remember, but it must have been a good reason.

[Xylthixlm]

Off the top of my head...

A) You are trying harder to look like you're trying to find scum, than you are actually trying to find scum.
B) Flameaxe opposed schismatized's lynch.
C) TS reacted strangely around the time of hasdgfas's claim, and hasn't done anything to improve my opinion since.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm voting for you because I don't think that scum would target you, therefore someone did, and I suspect a vig. Plus, you've been likely scum for a while now.

Um. A vig targeting zu_Faul wouldn't make it any more likely that he's scum, so that's a silly reason to vote him.

Now, if you suspected a

godfather

, that would be a good reason.

[Xylthixlm]

Bold added.

I'm voting for you because I don't think that scum would target you, therefore someone did, and I suspect a vig.

Plus, you've been likely scum for a while now.

Um. A vig targeting zu_Faul wouldn't make it any more likely that he's scum, so that's a silly reason to vote him.

Now, if you suspected a

godfather

, that would be a good reason.

that's not the only reason, Xyl, and nowhere did I say that it was.

You didn't say it was the only reason. You did say it was

a

reason. I'm saying it isn't a valid reason.

[Xylthixlm]

So, are you forgetting hasdgfas's claim, or just not believing it?

[Xylthixlm]

I have recently learned, the hard way, in an ongoing game that shall remain nameless, that hasdagas here is most creative with fake claims.

He's liable to produce the kind of claim that will cause most people to conclude: "he couldn't possibly make that one up." Yet, he can. He most certainly can.

There's a difference between a claim you don't think he could make up, and a claim with corroborating evidence you don't think he could fake.

[Xylthixlm]

Time to put my vote on the one of my top suspects with the biggest wagon.

unvote, vote Toaster Strudel

[Xylthixlm]

Have we lynched TS yet?

[Xylthixlm]

This lack of deaths is interesting.

[Xylthixlm]

Either hasdgfas is the best CPR Doc

ever

or there is something else going on.

No bets on which one.

[Xylthixlm]

Let's hear it for lazy moderators.

[Xylthixlm]

Which of these scenarios is most likely for Night 2?
(a) hasdgfas is lying about targeting Zu_Faul
(b) Zu_Faul is a godfather, the wolf kill was stopped by a doc
(c) Zu_Faul is a godfather, the wolves didn't kill
(d) Zu_Faul was targeted by a vig, the wolf kill was stopped by a doc
(e) Zu_Faul was targeted by a vig, the wolves didn't kill
(f) the wolves tried to kill Zu_Faul

I'm leaning to (f) but I'm curious what other people think. Especially the people voting Zu_Faul.

[Xylthixlm]

Awesome

and

lazy.

[Xylthixlm]

vollkan and elvis_knits, answer my post 2431.

[Xylthixlm]

Which of these scenarios is most likely for Night 2?
(a) hasdgfas is lying about targeting Zu_Faul
(b) Zu_Faul is a godfather, the wolf kill was stopped by a doc
(c) Zu_Faul is a godfather, the wolves didn't kill
(d) Zu_Faul was targeted by a vig, the wolf kill was stopped by a doc
(e) Zu_Faul was targeted by a vig, the wolves didn't kill
(f) the wolves tried to kill Zu_Faul

I'm leaning to (f) but I'm curious what other people think. Especially the people voting Zu_Faul.

N2? We had a kill that night, right, but only one. And we know that we had a SK active in addition to the wolves.

Either TS tried to kill zu and was stopped by hascow, or TS tried to kill zu but was stopped by him being GF, or TS tried to kill someone else which didn't work for some reason -- and hascow targetted zu but didn't kill him because zu is GF or was targetted by a vig.

TS tried to kill zu and was stopped by hascow: The kill that night was not wolf-flavored, so this only works if there is also a vig and the wolves failed/nokilled.
TS tried to kill zu but was stopped by him being GF: exactly the same as the previous one.
TS tried to kill someone else but didn't work for some reason: why would you assume that it didn't work, since the one kill that night is not wolf-flavored? Unless you have a reason to believe that I'm wrong and that kill

was

done by the wolves...

[Xylthixlm]

hasdgfas, I would like to know your target sometime today.

[Xylthixlm]

Hmm the Peers choice makes sense. But why would Zu Faul be targetted on Night 2?

BM

Because hasdgfas thought Zu_Faul was scum, and was trying to kill him. It seems like hasdgfas might have saved him instead, since he didn't die and the werewolf kill is apparently missing that night. I have no idea why the werewolves would try to kill Zu_Faul, but if they did, he obviously isn't one of them...

[Xylthixlm]

Hmm. I am curious - what do you think the implications of the targeting/kill combinations is?

The simplest explanation for the lack of hasdgfas + wolf kills N2 is that they both targeted Zu_Faul. Ergo, it is very likely Zu_Faul is not a wolf.

The simplest explanation for the lack of hasdgfas + wolf kills last night is that both targeted the same person. Ergo, it is very likely that person is not a wolf.

[Xylthixlm]

Hmm the Peers choice makes sense. But why would Zu Faul be targetted on Night 2?

BM

Because hasdgfas thought Zu_Faul was scum, and was trying to kill him. It seems like hasdgfas might have saved him instead, since he didn't die and the werewolf kill is apparently missing that night. I have no idea why the werewolves would try to kill Zu_Faul, but if they did, he obviously isn't one of them...

Thats what i'm saying. Why would the werewolves want to kill Z_F who hasnt claimed, and would be a good mislynch. Unless of course they thought Z_F was onto them.

BM

Read what I wrote again. I'm saying Zu_Faul is

not

a werewolf.

[Xylthixlm]

Battle Mage, your seemed to have completely missed the point of

my

post. You wrote "That's what I'm saying", but if you were really saying the same thing I am,

you wouldn't be voting Zu_Faul

. Clear enough?

[Xylthixlm]

BM means that he thinks there is no reason why I should be targetted by the Werewolves, unless I was onto something when I accused them.

I know that's what BM means. That wasn't what

I

meant.

[Xylthixlm]

Wow. That was ... startlingly overdefensive. I wasn't even accusing BM of anything, and now he's attacking me for ... some reason.

BM, do you think I'm scum?

[Xylthixlm]

BM means that he thinks there is no reason why I should be targetted by the Werewolves, unless I was onto something when I accused them.

I know that's what BM means. That wasn't what

I

meant.

it's what you SAID.

Stop stalling and answer my question.

BM

Because hasdgfas thought Zu_Faul was scum, and was trying to kill him. It seems like hasdgfas might have saved him instead, since he didn't die and the werewolf kill is apparently missing that night. I have no idea why the werewolves would try to kill Zu_Faul, but if they did,

he obviously isn't one of them.

..

Bolded for emphasis.

My

entire point

was that the evidence indicates Zu_Faul is not a werewolf! You are drawing a

completely

different meaning from what I wrote than what I intended. And now you're attacking me for clarifying.

BM, if you're town, you need to calm down and think a bit.

[Xylthixlm]

And no, I'm not going to speculate on why the werewolves would try to kill Zu_Faul. Any argument that Zu_Faul is scum because the scum wouldn't kill him is

deep

into WIFOM territory.

[Xylthixlm]

Why do you think I'm scum?

[Xylthixlm]

*blinks*

I'm not speculating about the setup. I'm drawing logical conclusions based on claims, night action results, and Occam's razor. It works really well.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm NOT arguing that Zu Faul is scum because the scum didnt kill him. I'm saying that your reasoning for thinking he is town, has a massive hole in it, and im giving you the chance to complete the picture. You have clearly rejected this opportunity, and yet your vote is still not on him.

Wait wait wait. Did you just say something to the effect of "If you don't have a good reason to think he's town, he must be scum"? Nice logical fallacy there, I almost missed it.

Vote: Battle Mage

[Xylthixlm]

Confirm Vote: Xylthixlm

I can't see that moving today.

BM

I find this unreasonably amusing.

[Xylthixlm]

You're clearly saying that if I can't defend him, I should be voting him. That's a fallacy.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm starting to think that Battle Mage is a wolf, and the reason he's so vehement about my logic being flawed is that the wolves

didn't

kill Zu_Faul. Interesting. I can't really think of another reason he'd attach so much importance to guessing who the wolves killed.

[Xylthixlm]

It's not flawed unless I'm right about you being scum.

Are you scum?

[Xylthixlm]

Yes.

[Xylthixlm]

That makes things more interesting.

[Xylthixlm]

I think that the issue will become clearer later, with more information. Until we have that information, Zu_Faul is a bad lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

BM, what changed your mind about my argument being crap?

[Xylthixlm]

BM, what changed your mind about my argument being crap?

you dont have an argument. Your general play was crap, and i stand by that. But ive given up trying to get anything out of you. Hopefully you'll be NKed, or just lurk your way to replacement. Then we might make some progress.

BM

BM, what changed your mind about Zu_Faul being scum?

[Xylthixlm]

In my mind, it does just that. In mafia, you can make a point about someones actions, and then you back it up with a motive. If someone makes the most retarded comment in the world, BUT there is no reason they are more likely to do that as scum than as town, then there is no motive, and it cant be considered a scumtell.

So you're saying that the fact that you're making the most retarded comments in the world is not a scumtell. Gotcha.

BM, what changed your mind about Zu_Faul being scum?

My mind hasnt changed.

Really. Because it sure looked like you were assuming Zu_Faul was not scum in an earlier comment. Where was it...

But who makes a good lynch is quite evidently dependent on who Zu Faul was suspicious of, as obviously, they are the people who would have most cause to try to kill him, yes?

[Xylthixlm]

I need to reread what I said in this game when I was paying attention.

[Xylthixlm]

We need a vote count.

[Xylthixlm]

BM, do you have all the information the scum do?

If not, why do you think you should be able to guess the scum's reasons for doing what they do?

[Xylthixlm]

6 to lynch? Wow. None of these bandwagons are anywhere

near

large enough.

Vote: Flameaxe

[Xylthixlm]

Because I'm

just that awesome

.

[Xylthixlm]

ALSO XYL!?!

We should lynch that guy ASAP, or is that not Xyl from MTGSchat?

That's me. Am I too awesome for you?

[Xylthixlm]

There isn't enough mod activity for me to bother trying. Sorry.

[Xylthixlm]

The sad thing is that almost makes sense, given the setup.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm concerned that a massclaim would out the

CENSORED

and the

CENSORED

.

[Xylthixlm]

Vote: Abandon

[Xylthixlm]

I don't even remember who I thought was scum, so I'm going to assume that all my guesses were right.