Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir (Fin)

[Aj The Epic]

Or we could just end the fucking game already

[Aj The Epic]

Rolecop still makes 0 sense. If Pine isn't lying, they see 3x and don't NK.

[Aj The Epic]

Daily reminder that if Pine was scum in this gambit, he fully expected not to win.

[Aj The Epic]

VOTE: Elbrin

Pine does your role just say RB in title, or 3x RB? Because what the actual fuck was that gambit anyways.

[Aj The Epic]

What is the title of your role?

[Aj The Epic]

Well ofc only pine/Tywin can be scum for Elbrin. But it doesn't really solve shit.

Especially because Pine/Tywin couldn't be more different in what happens this game.

[Aj The Epic]

And what is your theory?

That his theory, which requires A.) potential roleblocker and scum Rolecop OR B.) lying scum RB and VT elsewise is heavily just playing a card of 'let's lynch both'. Or, in other words, his theory isn't in any effect a theory, it just plays both sides of the possible coin.

[Aj The Epic]

You have YET to answer my question. Are you called a role blocker, or are you called a 3x role blocker, in the bolded colored line?

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah the issue with re-reading is reading Tywin is absolute pain in the ass. I'll check Nero/CK/Nos to see if I see anything.

[Aj The Epic]

Reason being? I'm sorta drawing a similar conclusion but I want your reasons for this.

[Aj The Epic]

Why does CK incriminate Tywin?

[Aj The Epic]

Nero does the same thing multiple times, and Nos never talks about Tywin, but talks to Nero. Which is important because she never talks to Nero in any post. Talks to CK like once. If we assume Tywin scum, Nos just doesn't talk to scum. She talks to Elbrin at least twice.

but you were ok with jumping on me without letting me talk? Why treat me and Tywin differently here?

Wagon speed prob means Tywin is town and thus scum are voting him.

Lapsa 5 (Pine, Gamma Emerald, Titus, Alisae, Elbirn)

Tywin Lannister 5 (Pine, ssbm_Kyouko, Titus, Gamma Emerald, Elbirn)

Like both these wagons were shit and the common names are Pine, Titus, Elbirn so there is scum within those 3. Also funny coincidence that all 3 hold the same spot on both wagons (Pine 1, Titus 3, Elbirn 5)

In the next few posts, he asks Elbrin to talk him into a Sonia/Tywin team and votes Sonia first. Meaning a Sonia flip kinda goes against that (as she flips town). As he's getting lynched, he flips his reads on Tywin.

Much earlier in the game, he also uses Tywin as hard town from the Titus/Tywin exchange. In the same post, Elbrin is way closer to scum. This is post 1513 for reference.

Yeah let's do that.

VOTE: Tywin

Dude's either genius scum or really awful town. And I think it's the former, looking at Nero. Optimistic game-ending vote?

[Aj The Epic]

and Nos never talks about Tywin, but talks to Nero

talks to Elbrin, not nero.

[Aj The Epic]

Titus, you're needed here.

[Aj The Epic]

Fucking Cephrir is changing alignments on flips I swear to god.

[Aj The Epic]

TBH the first no kill can be explained in the fact that it worked as a sort of way to either give Pine a free lynch or abuse Pine's role. This second is probably just WIFOM around Titus.


Also disagree with no lynching. Happily-ever-after is an insult to everyone who played the game and realistically there's no reason to try for it.

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah and they might not stop no-killing.

[Aj The Epic]

I mean in my defense do you think I fuck this game so badly that I don't vote for scum a single time (outside of the chance Elbrin is scum) this entire game? Not the greatest defense but I'm alive because I've just been so incredibly wrong this entire game.

[Aj The Epic]

Mod, can we go 3/4 Majority No lynch and then a decision for a shortened night (24 hours max?)

[Aj The Epic]

VOTE: no lynch

[Aj The Epic]

Alright so that's about what was expected. Leaning Pine here w/grounds on RB being a bullshit claim.

[Aj The Epic]

There wasn't any real chance I'd let that lynch go through... The only case I'd start to worry was if you or Pine died instead of Titus.

[Aj The Epic]

VT

And bullshit 'would cause an immediate lynch'. I have no reason to not go to Lylo immediately since it helps exploit bad townplay as opposed to going Lylo with someone overridingly town.

Thankfully, our mod has kept the death list updated

Lapsa, Townie, lynched Day 1.
Lil Uzi Vert, Town Vanilla Cop, killed Night 1.
CloudKicker, Mafia Loved Traitor, killed Night 1.
mozamis, Town Mason, lynched Day 2.
Cabd, Town Gunsmith, killed Night 2.
Nosferatu, Mafia Motion Detector, killed Night 2.
Gamma Emerald, Townie, lynched Day 3.
ssbm_Kyouko, Townie, killed Night 3.
Alisae, Town Vigilante, killed Night 3.
Nero Cain, Mafia Goon, lynched Day 4.
xSoniaNevermindx, Townie, lynched Day 5.
gerryoat, Town Mason Bodyguard, killed Night 5.
Tywin Lannister, Townie, lynched Day 6.
Titus, Townie, killed Night 7.

If Elbrin/Myself are scum, 6 VTs. One Vanilla Cop, which catches only half the scum team at max and 5 townplayers. A Vig, Gunsmith with negative hits on Cop/Vig. A 3x Role blocker, a Mason Pair with a body guard modifier.

The scum have a goon, Motion Detector and Traitor and a wildcard.

The town is insane in this setup. Like yeah both cops have issues but there's still 2 cops of a sort. Gunsmith has no false positive guilties. Vanilla cop is basically good at checking role claims. A fucking vig/BG combo to effectively protect the cops or the vig itself. And the BG gets to know a free townie to protect if nothing else. Role blocker is another issue a scumteam has to dodge. Meanwhile a motion detector scum role can't claim later into the game due to cops, and really doesn't give a lot of info above what the vanilla cop gets (action performed on player, player performed action). A traitor/goon combo is worse than double goon.

Like even while looking at this I can't help but say "A roleblocker would be soooooo good for scum here".

[Aj The Epic]

Like my guess is 7 townies, 2x Cop with negative parts, vig, mason|BG vs goon, traitor, Motion detector, RB/Godfather (full?) and that one of these roles have a way to cause CK to rejoin the team. That's much better balanced imo.

[Aj The Epic]

Sure I get that scum has a final PR, but like what fucking PR actually is strong enough to counteract that? Like 4x JOAT Godfather or something? Normally the best PROACTIVE role a scum gets is a roleblocker/JK.

[Aj The Epic]

Then you're saying that swinging you, a 3x RB to a scum RB doesn't help negate that at all? Vanilla cop is near useless outside claim verification, BG sacrifices a mason to do so... there's a ton of town power but it's not without cost.

[Aj The Epic]

TBH scum has to predict a no kill on sonia's death day to explain that. That's my quickest Occam's Razor of this situation. Either you're a role cop or Pine is the one who instigated the entire thing as scum.

[Aj The Epic]

Your first mistake is thinking I'd no kill there. I have a feeling someone did a little meta dive and checked my play in Tarot Mafia to explain away my no killing as it was a controversial call for my dead scumbuddies (nearly paid off), but as someone who THRIVES as scum on night kills and night action WIFOM in general, that was not a place where I'd have any objective benefit to no killing (even as a rolecop). The reason being:

A.) There's 2 basic conftown players sitting alive
B.) If I've rolecopped Pine, I see 3x? This is why I asked Pine to clarify. We had just completed N4, I would've guessed going into that night that his shots were gone. The only argument against this is if Motion Detector has sat on Pine before and found no movement. This is a likely scenario that cannot be forgotten here, but it requires a lot of shit happening including the existence of a role that hasn't flipped.
C.) Simply put, gambits gain power the closer they are to Lylo. That was N5 and D6, which was an objective day early. N6/D7 or N7/D8 (today) are much better gambit days. Most specifically no killing in a situation when the last scumbuddy has died doesn't work unless you actively gambit.

Verify that the only gambit I could've played D6 was baiting out your role claim. Then look to realize the scenario that happens and see how little benefit I can expect for not getting a confirmed town off the board. Also, Titus never makes it to LYLO with me as scum. This is something I discuss in Tarot Mafia and my ideology should be clear as day that confirmed town do not enter last day voting situations at all cost (aside treestumps...)

[Aj The Epic]

TBH scum has to predict a no kill on sonia's death day to explain that.

...What?

Should've been 'role blocker'.

Also thinking of it now, scum also has to predict the blocker wouldn't go after them.

[Aj The Epic]

My entire lean on Pine was more PoE than anything else. I stated the day he claimed RB that it was either Sonia or Pine and I don't think Pine suicides the game. I bought Titus' "there's a role cop" idea a little bit too hard but I also have thought Tywin was playing either an awful town game or a fantastic scum game.

[Aj The Epic]

My track record is impeccable.

[Aj The Epic]

No, I never implied Pine WOULDN'T do it, just that he SHOULDN'T EXPECT TO WIN doing it.

Why aren't you scum? I think it's more a number thing than any shining town beacon thing you've done. I don't see town having room for a 3x roleblocker, but that's the exact style of role I'd give scum (or JK, I guess..). My issue with you yesterday was that you went "it's pine or tywin" for two very different reasons. I thought you were talking to Titus as if 'this is foolproof' logic style, which I thought you just played both sides of the coin.

[Aj The Epic]

No, I never implied Pine WOULDN'T do it, just that he SHOULDN'T EXPECT TO WIN doing it.

Why aren't you scum? I think it's more a number thing than any shining town beacon thing you've done. I don't see town having room for a 3x roleblocker, but that's the exact style of role I'd give scum (or JK, I guess..). My issue with you yesterday was that you went "it's pine or tywin" for two very different reasons. I thought you were talking to Titus as if 'this is foolproof' logic style, which I thought you just played both sides of the coin.

Yeah hang on I just reread this

You're saying that pine as scum intentionally made a move that he knew would make him lose? Am I parsing this right?

Yeah, because a role block on a townie to claim no kill should incriminate the role blocker.

[Aj The Epic]

...?

[Aj The Epic]

As if you're actually having to worry... and that post sounds fake as shit too.

You're saying that if Pine were scum he wouldn't do that and expect to win.

It should thus follow that scum wouldn't do that because they would lose

I don't see how you don't therefore reach the conclusion that I'm scum based on PoE, and instead you want to push Pine.

So if I have to go into detail about what's my thought process has been:

Pine v Sonia requires 1 of them to be scum except with outside interference from Rolecop (what Titus had been suggesting).
In this situation, a couple lynches out of LYLO and needing THREE MISLYNCHES TO WIN THE GAME it looked like complete and utter suicide for Pine to be scum and make that claim. This was my primary reason for believing him to be telling the truth.

Because of this, that's why I looked at Tywin. It STILL doesn't make sense as to why Pine makes that gambit to me. That, and I've had the lagging feeling that Tywin might be scum (as I claimed multiple times before, and even said that I would not allow Tywin to survive in a lylo because his play has been... too survivalist and kinda unproductive). That, and I've had next to no reasons to scumread Pine all game. It wasn't that I was explicitly townreading him after d1, just had no reason to ever scum read him.

But here we are in LYLO knowing all the roles (especially the Gerry Mason BG flip) and it seems really weird for Pine's role to exist. I've spelled out how scum has to find this gambit (Motion detector Pine N1? and notice no action. Have a role cop that THEN goes back to Pine and sees he's actually a 3x role blocker. Put together that Pine still has a shot, gambit that Pine won't block them, no kill and get a mislynch). To me, this scenario is fucking stupidly unlikely. To the point that 'Pine isn't planning to win this game by making this move' is a lot more acceptable than the events that have to take place for this gambit to work properly.

Also Pine yesterday didn't want to go back into night and instead started pushing me before the No Lynch vote. This makes his vote all too transparent that he was just waiting for his vote to 'look' good more than actually give a shit. And at this point, you've very well proved yourself to be town (you had the hammer opportunity) so there's no question about that.

VOTE: Pine

I think it's kinda obvious that now the ball's in your court here.

[Aj The Epic]

Risk losing her insight? Titus knew very well what happened if we went to night so how do you explain avoiding it when Titus was perfectly fine with it?

And earlier you talked about "Why would I kill Titus". It's because she was the ONLY option for you to kill. Because I bet you hold the same policy I do: No confirm town goes to LYLO. And dead Titus is infinitely more supportive of you than alive titus for your arguments.

[Aj The Epic]

Confirmed town who's dead and townreads you and can't change that read is even cooler because you just put words in their corpse's mouth and take it as fact.

[Aj The Epic]

It's funny to full on see you lying to my face in particular because you already revealed that you're scum to me.

[Aj The Epic]

Like yeah you're saying you wouldn't kill Titus but here we are and yes you did.

[Aj The Epic]

Thing is, he's literally 500 posts late to adjust it and town was universally town read. There's absolutely no harm to do that for Nos.

[Aj The Epic]

On what you've stated? Other than I did the exact same thing yesterday with Tywin and turned up wrong.

[Aj The Epic]

No, not really. Just pointing out I did the exact same thing yesterday to lynch Tywin over Pine (aka looked at the fact scum never interacted with Tywin but did mention pine like once) and it turned out incorrect.

[Aj The Epic]

Holy shit. Did Pine just fucking throw?

[Aj The Epic]

......SURE

[Aj The Epic]

I mean, what's there to fight? Pine slipped.

[Aj The Epic]

So this is what I said

No, not really. Just pointing out I did the exact same thing yesterday to lynch Tywin over Pine (aka looked at the fact scum never interacted with Tywin but did mention pine like once) and it turned out incorrect.

It's implying scum mentioned Tywin a few times and like once to pine.

Yeah, Tywin was actually voting for me for about a third of D1. But you can call that "mentioned like once"

However Pine refers to an odd piece never mentioned. The only tie between Tywin and Pine from my post is 'scum'. I think that's rather clear. What probably happened is he read the post a couple of times and put himself as the scum there since it matches his own alignment and didn't note the comparison that he was never directly related to Tywin in that post.

[Aj The Epic]

Well other than CK wasn't lynched yesterday... And it STILL doesn't make sense because CK was traitor so how scum interacted with him isn't even worth mentioning.

[Aj The Epic]

Also CK's vote on you was doing nothing. No case, no push. Just sat it there. How is that supposed to be CK trying to get you lynched when you weren't even close to danger?

Also glad you're so willing to lose the game elbrin.

[Aj The Epic]

Like please explain why I no kill the night before sonia was lynched.

[Aj The Epic]

Cloud did the same to you and in the exact same way

I was being wagoned during that time, Pine never was wagoned when CK voted.

[Aj The Epic]

Pushing on this as a slip was a shitty move from you aj, i knew it was shit even when I was drunk, I just wanted to let you two dig your own graves over it. 50 house points from Slytherin.

Saying he was mentioning CK STILL doesn't make any sense in that context. And it's not like I have any questions about who's scum. He wiffed my entire statement and related what I said to him interacting with Tywin.

Re-read Pine's reactions to you not hammering me right away and just see how fake his reaction is.

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah, CloudKicker was actually voting for me for about a third of D1. But you can call that "mentioned like once"

^ how does this not make sense? CK did in fact vote him for a third of day 1. Tywin didn't.

I was still caught up on how he got CK from my post.

[Aj The Epic]

(aka looked at the fact scum never interacted with Tywin but did mention pine like once)

Like... I'm not sure what Pine's trying to say with CK here.

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah I glanced at the score of the super bowl and read it as the Falcons were going to win.

And lol@ "is this what you're hinging the game on". You and I have perfect information of the alignments remaining in this game.

[Aj The Epic]

You keep acting like we don't know this and only Elbrin is guessing.

[Aj The Epic]

No, your writing was fucking confusing. What more is there to my side than "how am I actually supposed to get your edits by reading it"?

[Aj The Epic]

And I don't know how you want us to help you decide.

[Aj The Epic]

Go ahead.

[Aj The Epic]

Yes.

[Aj The Epic]

*sigh*

As I stated, I had 0 reason to no kill after Nero had been lynched.

[Aj The Epic]

Admittedly Tywin was too much an enigma this game. Like his play was EXCELLENT if he was scum and awful if he was town.

I figured the second NK was that way. Issue with the 3man lylo the way it was setup is there's really no way to help Elbrin because you forced him to decide on his own early.

[Aj The Epic]

There also exists a timeline where I put a vote on scum one time before lylo.

[Aj The Epic]

My issue was that his polluting the thread with bullshit posts and basically being the most unreasonable person I've ever met in mafia was WIFOM enough to avoid a lynch, but then he CONTINUED IT after being town read. Had he actually tried to stop inciting Titus into attacking him it would've been much easier to see.