New York 196: My Game, My Flavor Mafia (Mafia Win)
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Why exactly do you think the checks were shannon and AGar?
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and boem, it looks like he was going in with the assumption "all of the people in this initial list are town" and then narrowing it down from there by looking at the remaining players and trying to figure out which were likely town.
I think he'd put confirmed-town investigates in the first group. I may be wrong. I'd like to look more indepth at his iso.-
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this post was before night 3... he couldn't have checked them both by now
and his d1-2 are also very consistent with having checked varsoon, as your next quote agrees with as well-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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when I say rolecop I mean an actual rolecop. It's theoretically possible they have both a rolecop and a neapolitan, given how many non-vanilla town there are. I'm saying the only way I can imagine beeboy being a scumkill is if he had been rolecopped or in some other way suspected as an odd night cop or other PR.-
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I disagree, I think.
Odd-night cop is a decent PR.
Jailkeeper is good.
Vig (or 3-shot vig) is pretty good.
doc/nurse/backup nurse essentially together act as one doctor that will take a long time to kill, but are not as strong as 3 independent PRs by any means.
The motion detector is an extremely weak PR (although given GiF's misconstrual of it it may be slightly stronger) and is made weaker by being 2-shot.
Plus we have at least two macho townies who, although they act as false positives for the neapolitan, are also negative utility especially if the town has so much protection and sort of act to balance out the doctor chain's power by giving the doctors less freedom over who to protect.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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except for you know dunnstral voted and fossed beeboy yesterdayIn post 5403, Transcend wrote:beeboy, the guy who led on mafia jailkeeper, does not seem like someone that vigilante would shoot-
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Dunnstral, you're gonna need to actually explicitly claim full vig. The bullshit isn't doing you any good anymore.
Here's the plan. We direct the vig and the jailkeeper.Both Almost50 and Dunnstral need to claim their shots before the night phase hits.They will of course need to be on separate people. The doctor protects Almost50, because the jailkeep is extremely valuable with only one mafia member remaining.
Every night that someone other than Dunnstral's target dies, we get a clear based on who A50 roleblocked, assuming there's only one mafia left, which I think is somewhat safe - I don't think the amount of town power claimed justifies a 5-man scumteam with at least 3 power roles in a 19-player game.
There's two versions of this plan: with or without massclaim. If we massclaim the upside is obviously more clarity; the downside is that we'll out the doctor, which means that we'll essentially have two guaranteed nights of this plan occurring, as mafia will have to kill the doctor and then varsoon. Massclaiming isprobablybetter.
But the important thing is that we play this game very rigorously at this point. We have tons of town power still alive (even if A50 is scum, he'll be severely limited in his night actions) and so many mislynches. I really just want to play it safe since we have that option and eliminate even the smallest chance of letting this win slip away.-
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The setup from a somewhat recent 19-player large normal (2015, NY 189):
Mason x 3, 2-shot vig, gunsmith, flower vendor (fruit vendor with a different name)
vs
3x goon, 1x doctor
with the rest as vanilla townies
this scumteam has more power and this town has a bit more power so i think this is a pretty good point of comparison.-
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a fruit vendor sends someone fruit every night and that person is informed that they received fruit. So essentially they can confirm their existence in the game.
Next most recent similarly sized singleball game I could find is NY183. 18 players, 3 mafia + traitor vs 14 town.
Mafia had traitor + encryptor + roleblocker + 2-shot rolecop
town had tracker + doctor + 2-shot friendly neighbor + a pretty strong joat (doc/vig/cop)-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Like I honestly cannot imagine a 5:14 game being balanced without really ridiculous amounts of town power. I guess I could imagine something like 4+traitor:14 being balanced but then the jailkeeper being strong thing is still relevant because normal traitors on mafiascum can't be converted to full mafia.-
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Assuming there is a town nurse and that every other townie is a VT and that the last scum is a goon (and assuming that dunnstral is just being obtuse), the setup would be:
Town: Jailkeeper, Vig, Doctor, Nurse, Backup nurse, 2-shot Motion Detector, Odd-night Cop, 2x Macho townie, 6x VT
vs
Jailkeeper, 2-shot commuter, Neapolitan, Goon-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I mean he claims who he's jailkeeping tonight.In post 5450, kraska77 wrote:
He said its zachIn post 5434, implosion wrote:And a50 claims his jailkeep because i'm assuming you have more shots left and i can't believe you even if you say that you don't, so we need to ensure that he jailkeeps someone other than your target. In theory you can claim your target and he can not since we have a doctor.
But this should be open to a bit more discussion.-
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Alright. I'm the doctor (was nurse). I actually guessed that Varsoon might be backup nurse when he mentioned that one of the people who he could confirm should know, but I wasn't sure because confirmed role ≠ confirmed alignment. But alas.
N2 and N3 I protected Varsoon, trying to outguess which PR scum would go for and lol at how that worked out. Last night I protected Almost50, and heavily suspect that I stopped the kill. I realized during the night that it's probably 1 scum left and the jailkeeper is super broken now, so I realized protecting him was likely a free win. It's also possible Zach is scum and tried to kill whoever and was blocked. But I think it's very likely A50 was shot last night.-
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Yeah, I honestly can't really blame Dunnstral for his shots given that he was shooting them because he suspected them of fakeclaiming. I can of course point out the irony, but at least fakeclaiming limited vig as a full vig is pretty sensible because it can't screw much up.
For hopefully incredibly obvious reasons I'm very on board with an AGar lynch today. I said yesterday that everyone except Airick, AGar and A50 strikes me pretty significantly as town; this has not changed except that Airick's flip (and the vig being the only kill) makes me think A50 is town. I've never understood why AGar was townread. The motion detector result is very probably damning except for the extremely unlikely event that Zach claims a power role that would have targeted him. Another good reason to think AGar is scum is the way he claimed today: "VT. Whatever." That is not an attitude consistent with a town that has been steamrolling with 3/4 correct lynches. It's an attitude consistent with scum who is defeatist because they realize that there is almost no way then can win, mathematically.
I'd like to wait to hear Zach's claim in theory but.
VOTE: AGar
Dunn is right that A50 doesn't need to claim his target in advance; only way he dies tonight is if the last scum is a disruptive role of some kind, in which case it's not like his target is meaningful anyway.
@shannon:
I mean, you're right. I don't actually think scum have a rolecop. Beeboy wasn't the scumkill.The question I have here is why are the N2 and N3 kills on vanilla townies, if there is a role cop? Like surely if you'd investigated someone and found them to be VT, you'd pick someone else to NK? (Or I guess maybe they investigated one of us VT and took a punt that someone else would be a PR and got it wrong, but ??)
Varsoon claimed on day two, iirc. When I say that they were afraid of the doctor chain, I mean that they may have not wanted to kill the backup nurse or the vig or the jailkeeper because they thought the doctor might be protecting them.How would they know about the doctor chain, though? Or why wouldn't they kill of the nurse or the backup nurse, and stop the chain that way?
It's better to lynch. If we nolynch and there's no kill we're back to the same position as before; if we nolynch and there is a kill then we get an innocent out of it (a50's jailkeep target) and actually possibly another innocent from the motion detector, but not necessarily. And we'll be down a person, probably me or Transcend or possibly dunnstral.Is it better to vote for no lynch then, and extend our chances? Also, what are the implications if there are >1 mafia left?
If there's more than one mafia left then if we lynch mafia today and the game doesn't end, the jailkeeper plan still works (and it's possible that there were only 4 mafia and the last scum is dunnstral the sk in theory). If we lynch town today and it turns out there are 2 mafia left then -shrug-. Scum still can't kill Almost50 for at least two nights because of me and Varsoon, so we have a couple chances to lynch scum and get the jailkeeper to be super strong. We also get motion detector results every night that they go for me or Varsoon which can give us even more info to work with, or they'll kill the motion detector and prolong A50's life.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I disagree that Transcend is a higher protection priority than Almost50. Jailkeeper is the stronger role at this stage of the game by a wide, wide margin; the motion detector isn't even necessarily useful, as the last scum could potentially have a power role and be able to use it in conjunction with the nightkill to create essentially false guilties. The jailkeeper is essentially giving us confirmed town every time there's a kill (again assuming there is 1 mafia left which I am assuming pretty strongly).
Oh well i guess peregrine is scum then oh waitZach wrote:the fact that we have JK makes a DOCTOR illogical-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I also really disagree with this.In post 5601, kraska77 wrote:Agar is town bc airick and agar interactions don't look like distancing plus transcends reaction test today
I wasn't sure airick was scum so i was thinking of the scenario in which airick flips town too
AGar's reaction to the test didn't look particularly convincing to me. Do you expect him to just say "welp, gg you caught me" if he's scum? Because he's an experienced player. How do you think he'd have reacted as scum?
And can you point me to interactions with airick that don't look like distancing?-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I seriously do hope that AGar is scum though, if he is scum then my reads this game have probably been the best reads I've ever had in a game of mafia.
And I still do think that he is.
If it isn't him then I honestly don't know between kraska/zach/boem/whoever else. Like every single person other than AGar I feel like I still feel I have really good reason to townread.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Sorry I missed that kraska:
I don't really see a casual vote on AGar as putting him in hot water. I can see it as distancing fairly easily. It's not like he was all-out assaulting AGar, or like he was putting him under a significant amount of pressure with his vote. He was at that point the only vote on AGar. That, to me, looks like he just didn't want to have to pick a side on the titus/vedith wagons, and so he went with a vote on AGar which I could easily see as either a vote to try to get another town wagon going, a vote to try to take the competing wagons as an opportunity to distance from AGar without a wagon forming on him, or him just voting AGar because he thought the vote would make himself look more town (the last of these being possible from either alignment).
So meh. It doesn't really make me feel one way or another. And I mean, consider that this was the height of the AGar wagon:
I know I'm town and I heavily suspect A50 is from his claim and Airick's flip. So Airick was probably the only scum on that wagon. With a 6-person wagon that looks, in this VC, IMO, pretty appealing to scum, I'd expect more scum to jump on it if it was on town. Vedith or Mirhawk could easily have jumped on the wagon (in fact mirhawk votes shannon 5 posts after this vc) and swung momentum onto the lynch that could have saved vedith, and doesn't come with the stigma of voting Titus if she flips town (I at least think that scum probably would have viewed it as a bit of an anathema to push the Titus wagon because of the nature of how the game would go after a mislynch on such active and controversial town). An AGar mislynch here would be an easy out for scum because he hadn't been very active so it would be a low-information mislynch in a situation where Vedith was under fire. But no one else went for it.Titus (4): shannon, Lapsa, Varsoon, Wake88
Vedith (4): Transcend, AGar, Performer, PeregrineV
Wake88 (1): beeboy
beeboy (1): Boem_u_dusi
AGar (6): Airick10, Titus, Dunnstral, Almost50, podoboq, implosion
shannon (1): Vedith
Performer (1): Zachstralkita
Not Voting: Mirhawk-
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implosion he/himPolymath
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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This is actually kind of true though >.>In post 5655, kraska77 wrote:pretty sure 99.99999% of the reasons we scum read boem is the avatar
Targeting the same player twice in a row is fine but if we do this scum will just kill A50 since my protection won't work because I'll be roleblocked.In post 5665, Boem_u_dusi wrote:If Almost50 is a jailkeeper and implosion is nurse/doctor, can they just protect each other and win the game for town? Or is targeting the same player two times in a row disallowed?I actually do know this one because his first game on site was my large theme that just ended (which he also flaked from).
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Yeah I guess I'll probably vote boem. Seems more likely than shannon or kraska at least at first glance. But I'm tired (orientation week at work) so I'm likely not gonna be devoting a ton of effort to this game in the near future.
I think it might be a better idea tonight for me to randomly protect between transcend/a50. In which case a50 should state his target beforehand in case he dies.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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So then we have kraska, Zach, and shannon all pseudoclear, the former unless she's a strongman and the latter two unless they're ninjas.
But eugh. I think my first instinct was that A50 is scum here but thinking slightly more it might be Transcend. I don't think A50 would be likely to clear kraska after he had the opportunity to declare the same clear as Transcend did, although I guess he's pushing the ninja angle if he's scum.
Right now I'm inclined to say that Transcend is a mafia motion detector but need to think a bit more about it and need to be reminded of what reasons there are to think that Transcend is town.-
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I think the only reason I can remember to think Transcend was town was his being part of the Vedith blitz but that's less significant I think given that there were literally 0 scum on the wagon other than him, if he is the last scum. It's more than possible that he was simply clamoring to get onto the wagon so that there would be a busser. Although I haven't looked a ton at the vote's context.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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uh, what?In post 5987, kraska77 wrote:If shannon were town she would have been killed long ago
Over the dunnstral and varsoon kills that were made? I fail to see the logic here.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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In what way does this clear you?In post 5992, Transcend wrote:All my reports have been accurate
For what reason can't you possibly be a mafia motion detector?-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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This is still really obviously the plan :XIn post 5983, implosion wrote:I think the play here is lynch Transcend, if he flips town then A50 jailkeeps shannon. I think I misspoke earlier, right? shannon is the only one motion-cleared, and zach and kraska are jailkeep-cleared.
like, no-lynching is stupid. If scum no-kill then we gain no information, so we're essentially just giving scum the choice of if they want to kill or not. Lynching shannon I suppose technically works as well as lynching Transcend from a numbers standpoint but I'm pretty sure Transcend is scum between them at this point.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Roleblocker wouldn't work, kraska - roleblocked power roles receive "no result", not a result like "no motion."
Ninja is a passive role that bypasses things like motion detectors, trackers and watchers. It wouldn't make sense to put in a ninja to balance out a single very weak town power role, since it wouldn't interact with anything else.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I mean, I have no strong problems with nolynching. I just don't really see the point. It gives scum the option of killing and the option of doing nothing. It essentially gives them the option of either making nothing happen, or doing something of their choice.
The Varsoon kill is sort of strange but not really. To eliminate the existence of a doctor they have to kill us both and no motion was detected on Varsoon, which may have been the reason. It's also possible scum think I'm more likely to make the wrong decision today.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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The problem is that this is somewhat unlikely from A50 scum. Which inclines me towards scum having a strongman. In which case holy shit the scumteam is strong. But w/e. If one of the vt claims is a full strongman then there will be words to whoever declared this setup balanced... if there are two scum left even more so. But etc.In post 6099, Almost50 wrote:I am not yet fully awake, but I jailed shannon!!!! I figured if it was her she would be blocked and no NK will occur, and if it's not her then she would be the lynch unless it's proven she's not guilty. Now we know it's none of the VTs for sure. It's either me or implosion. Lynch me then him when I flip. Town win locked.
Which means I need to look more closely at both zach and kraska.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I just realized.
@Mod:
Are you sure you can't? Because (quoting from the rules for normal games):In post 5519, GuyInFreezer wrote:
Can't tell ya.In post 5506, Dunnstral wrote:@mod Can a Mafia member use a factional kill and individual action on the same night?
So this information should be in your ruleset.Mafia must specify which member is performing the factional kill each night. Mods may choose whether or not to allow Mafia power roles to perform their action as well as their factional kill on the same night or not, and should list this choice in their rules-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
- Polymath
- Polymath
- Posts: 14653
- Joined: September 9, 2010
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: zoraster's wine cellar
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
- Polymath
- Polymath
- Posts: 14653
- Joined: September 9, 2010
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: zoraster's wine cellar
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
- Polymath
- Polymath
- Posts: 14653
- Joined: September 9, 2010
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: zoraster's wine cellar