NY 193 : Werewolf Mania (GAME OVER- TOWN WIN)

[Cobblerfone]

Hey. I've read the first five pages or so. Here're my preliminary reads in no particular order.

Scumreads:
Blackstar
pisskop slot (not with Almost50)
Xkfyu
GoldenRobster
Almost50 (not with pisskop)

townreads:
Nero Cain

[Cobblerfone]

PeregrineV replaces BeBopAReBopRhubarbPie

Hello guys. Lots of pages, so will probably do some selective reading.

Anyone want to offer their version of a game summary?

I second this.

[Cobblerfone]

Hey. I've read the first five pages or so. Here're my preliminary reads in no particular order.

Scumreads:
Blackstar
pisskop slot (not with Almost50)
Xkfyu
GoldenRobster
Almost50 (not with pisskop)

townreads:
Nero Cain

Interesting, you think Almost and the post about voting himself was scum indicative?

Xkfyu? Please point out why.

Town read on Nero. The only thing he said was post #68. How has that allowed you to form a definite town read of him?

Once you catchup, I want a reads list from you.

I got a scumread from Almost50 in his first post for his policy-lynch-lurker comment. I read it as a poorly executed attempt at getting town to think a certain way. There's no reason to post it as town as posting it just alerts the scum that you're searching for lurkers. His posts I've read so far also seem engineered to create WIFOM.

I think xkfyu was just gut, I might've gotten mixed up: see Nero.

Pisskop slot is for 106: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p7579403
It gave me bad vibes and seemed opportunistic, which is why I have the slot as a scumread but not with Almost50.

I think you were a scumread for just gut. My scumreads-list is really more of a note to myself to watch for more as I continue my archive-binge at this point.

Blackstar is a gutread, but I understand why it is: I saw a video the other day about how things to look out for when you think people are lying is to look to see the proportion to which they refer to themselves, because when lying humans like to refer to the situation in an outside perspective, for lack of better terms at the moment. How Blackstar's posts are structured seem a lot more "you" oriented than "I" oriented to me, hence the gut-read. 73: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7579084 being a particularly egregious example with what I read as distancing himself from/covering for Blue Rose (notice he said "people" instead of refering to Blue Rose by name.)

Nero, I could've sworn there was an interaction with Blue Rose that made me sure he couldn't be scum but I think I got mixed up with some other player. I'm going to go look for which player that actually was.

In the meantime

Vote: Blackstar

[Cobblerfone]

Can't find the post. The town read might've been from the last few pages? The desperation feels like frustrated town. I really need to keep notes.

In other news as I read more I'm reading Almost50 more as confused newbie town.

[Cobblerfone]

I don't remember ever seeing that

might not have, but I know for a 100% fact that there are mafia that cant kill.

Also you still haven't explained why you think there's another faction

I said its possible...

Explain this contradiction. You sound as if you have some special mod-confirmed knowledge that there's a Jungle Republic-style mafia group in the game, and then go back on it.

VOTE: SRMP

Ugh... Fine. But I doubt that Ricastle is scum. Let's agree to lynch RC if Ricastle is town.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ricastle
Hammered

seems like chaining mislynches as well, might have been scum who knew ricastle and rc were town.

RC is one of the worst town players on the site. You'd do well to ignore him.

This post would only make sense if ricastle knew Rc was town, otherwise he might not be unhelpful.

Either way, he even stated he wouldent be helpful he was either scum or policy at that point.

While I can agree with this (that is, I'm not the possibility that this exchange is scum v scum) from this exchange with SRMP I'm reading Blackstar as more townie. It's probably because the typing style seems more unplanned. Still somewhat suspect but dat contradiction from SRMP dough.

[Cobblerfone]

Explain this contradiction. You sound as if you have some special mod-confirmed knowledge that there's a Jungle Republic-style mafia group in the game, and then go back on it.

I see what you are saying but thats not what I meant

mafia that can't kill exist (I never said in this game, I just said they exist) however, I never said I knew there was a second faction in this game.

@Everyone: How much speculation about a second faction was there earlier and what brought it up?

[Cobblerfone]

Well, I'm not the only player left in game, you know. Someone else may decide to hammer. Furthermore, I might change my mind if I get too bored bc the game isn't moving. Claiming NOW may help the town do some catching up in the remaining time. Refusing to claim will lead to your inevitable lynch bc we will have no time to look elsewhere. The game is too slow as it is, and there's no way people will decide to do some catching up in the final 48 hours.

But we are random lynching. My claim wouldent matter.

But since you really want it, im a tracker.

UNVOTE:

Claim what you saw not but not whom you targeted just yet. If you're town holding, that info back might be useful.

[Cobblerfone]

*If you're town, holding that info back might be useful.

[Cobblerfone]

Claim what you saw not but not whom you targeted just yet.

As a non-native speaker; I'm finding some hardships digesting what you mean here. I would very much appreciate a rephrase.

@SRMP: Thank you. Now I feel much better not being on your wagon. I was VERY suspicious of you earlier (as you probably remember), but your interactions with BS made me doubt my initial reads. You're NOT totally clear in my eyes still, but I'm willing to move you further down my lynch line.

So... back to BS, or -maybe- Masquerade if anyone is interested.

I mean for him to claim if he saw targets go anywhere, and if so, where his targets went, but not the people he targeted yet. If he's truthful and names his targets he'd be potentially exposing power roles, is my line of thinking. I don't think I've played in many games with trackers in them before so I'm not entirely sure what the best way of going about this claim is. I hate it when the person I'm voting claims a PR; Gets me so paranoid about my own thought processes.

[Cobblerfone]

VOTE: SRMP

He's had plenty of time to full-claim and he's posting elsewhere. I'm scared I might be wrong but maybe less paranoid? Does that make sense? Maybe scared isn't the right word. Nervous maybe? IDK.

[Cobblerfone]

I got scum-partner-with-SRMP vibes from Xkfyu, like he came in here to derail his lynch, if SRMP is scum, but then Almost50 came in and actually derailed it so I'm not sure whether to trust my head or my gut if SRMP flips scum.

With Xkfyu and Almost50 around, I feel like I'm still fine with my vote, as if in the worst case scenario SRMP flips town, then that's two players less likely to be scum. And if he flips scum, then there's two potential scum-buddies, though not with each other, I think.

[Cobblerfone]

I got scum-partner-with-SRMP vibes from Xkfyu, like he came in here to derail his lynch, if SRMP is scum, but then Almost50 came in and actually derailed it so I'm not sure whether to trust my head or my gut if SRMP flips scum.

With Xkfyu and Almost50 around, I feel like I'm still fine with my vote, as if in the worst case scenario SRMP flips town, then that's two players less likely to be scum. And if he flips scum, then there's two potential scum-buddies, though not with each other, I think.

Explain your "scum-partner-with-SRMP vibes" to me, please?

You're trying to derail SRMP's lynch, this is true, yes? If he's town, you're probably doing it because you're town and believe him. If he's scum, you might be doing it because you believe him, but I think it's more likely you're scum if he is. But the situation with Almost50 is so wifom-inducing I'd rather lynch him before you if SRMP flips scum.

[Cobblerfone]

Vote: Almost50

In all likelihood, I don't believe we have a Doctor (otherwise Firebringer would have been protected during N2 after it was basically confirmed to Town that he was an actual Seer once TBR flipped). Therefore, with RC's claimed investigative role, I really don't think scum would have targeted PeregrineV over RC.

There's also the shadiness in the way he claimed his role. Ie. "An investigative role that is not unheard of but is also not Normal, while it's mechanics are best left unsaid until he flips. All the while giving him a 99% certainty that there is no Town Tracker in this game" (or some kind of shit to that effect). So yeah...

VOTE: RadiantCowbells

No. RC's town. Though that unvote was confusing.

[Cobblerfone]

Nero and Masquerade's exchange spurred me to do some digging. I started in Masquerade's ISO to get context, then I exited into the main thread at the relevant post. Not done yet, but here's some posts that stuck out to me.

Rough week all, just found out my dad might have prostate cancer. So yeah my head really ain't into this right now.

I'll be thinking of you, Innocent.

No pings on this one.

In fact I think I'm not gonna spend too much time paying attention to Innocent for now.

Was this not a town read on IAI?

If it was what did SPMP do to get his slot downgraded?

Nero's weak case on Masquerade and this post both give me scumvibes. This post feels like he's asking town to coach his scumbuddy, for lack of a better phrase.

VOTE: Nero

Thats just how it is Nero, no town reads. Everyone null or scumlean.

What deal?

so you think nobody is town?

+1

Next post will be scoreboard.*

*(No guarantee)

>suddenly implying its scummy without answering the question.

If you have no town reads, you think nobody is town, you have to think somebody is town dont you?

While I could see how someone might see this as distancing between partners, it doesn't feel that way to me. Town lean on AJ.

[Cobblerfone]

@Xkfyu: Golden Robster's thinking in that exchange reads as not-thinking-town to me. The only thing that gives me sort-of scum-vibes in there is rather than admitting they're wrong they attempt to sidestep the question, but overall I think town.

[Cobblerfone]

@Golden Robster & pisskop: Thoughts on Nero wagon generally?

[Cobblerfone]

Only people I'm having trouble getting at least some kind of read on are GR and PK. Everyone else I've got a read on them, not all of them unchanging, but even of the ones that fluctuate I feel like I can flow with them. GR and PK are a blank wall to me.

[Cobblerfone]

Cobbler man, you just gave us a not-read list. As in, the list of people who you don't have a read on. I think everyone will agree that you gotta give us something more than that.

How about a reads list of where your reads are sitting right now, and if those reads are fluctuating, then mark them as such. However, if you're going to just post things like that, I'm just gonna assume you're scum trying not to give your buddies away.

I'm not sure if you understand my last post. Though admittedly, it wasn't exactly clear. I forget that what seems obvious to me because it's in my head isn't always obvious, so I'll explain my way of thinking in this post. My intent wasn't to give a reads list, but a sort of explanation why I've been sitting back and observing more than getting into the heat of things; I already feel like I can follow most of the players.

If you want a reads list, you just need to ask. I've adopted the policy of not wearing my reads on my sleeve, to give scum fewer pieces to the puzzle of who to night kill. The exception being my providing of a first-impressions reads list when I replace in. I feel like the best places to catch scum are early game and lylo.

Reads:
Town: RC, AJ, SS
Flippity-floppity: Xkfyu, Almost, Masq (if Nero's scum, definitely town, but there is a reason I looked into her iso first after their exchange)
Scumlean: Nero

Yo seriously someone fucking unvote Nero.

I'm not doing that shit today.

Let's get AJ.

If it weren't for the fact that the AJ lynch is terrible I'd do it, but I've got no strong scumreads elsewhere so I'll stick with this wagon. I'd be fine with Masq, pk, GR, and Almost too.

[Cobblerfone]

So if we're popcorning how do we decide who goes first? Whoever is the most agreed towniest decides? We all decide? I say either we have RC decide or Masquerade goes first.

If it's mylo shouldn't we no-lynch?

If we end up lynching I'm fine with Masquerade, Almost, and pisskop, maybe Xkfyu.

[Cobblerfone]

Generally, the popcorn method starts with the person who is considered the "most scummy." That person claims, and then chooses who claims next, etc.

I know that. My question had to do with how we decide who is the most scummy.

There's no point to RC being the next one to claim anyway. Even if he's scum, he's already semi-committed to some kind of PR.

[Cobblerfone]

If it's mylo shouldn't we no-lynch?

WHY? I mean, do you know of an investigative PR who is likely to get us more info overnight??

If we end up lynching I'm fine with Masquerade, Almost, and pisskop, maybe Xkfyu.

It is statistically better to no-lynch in mylo.

[Cobblerfone]

I think we should all vote whether or not they want a massclaim and for who goes first:

I say yes and Masquerade.

@Almost50: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... rs,_Part_1

When the numbers during the day are even, mafia have the advantage.

[Cobblerfone]

This is what i'm thinking.

Aj lynch --> Someone dies ---> Cobbler lynch

You have too many scum reads (adding Xk to this list along with masq).

Cobber is the lynch for today. And robster needs serious amounts of attentions for such a fluid scum list with very few town reads.

I claim VT. There's nothing to say here anyways.

Seriously? I thought you had some kind of result that made you think Almost is town. That's the entire reason I switched my read on Almost yesterday.

This sounds genuine to me.

[Cobblerfone]

GR's been seeming more townie as well.

That leaves Almost50, Masquerade, and pisskop.

[Cobblerfone]

@Almost: What made you change your mind?

[Cobblerfone]

Change my mind about what?

RC

[Cobblerfone]

1- I didn't. I was bugging him for something only he will know well (and he did respond in a way to show he did/does).
2- When Xk put his vote on RC I was afraid the 3 remaining scum (assuming there's 3 still) would quick hammer him to end game.

So your vote on him wasn't serious?

[Cobblerfone]

VOTE: Almost

[Cobblerfone]

UNVOTE:

That vote was out of frustration.

I'm going to look things over.

[Cobblerfone]

UNVOTE:

That vote was out of frustration.

I'm going to look things over.

Frustration about what?

Frustration at the WIFOM. But mostly from that exchange. But after pondering it, I've realized that there's no scum-aligned reason for Almost's "just kidding, I voted RC but don't actually think he's scum so I'll unvote" unless he's buddies with RC, and I still doubt RC's scum. Doesn't mean he's town, though, which is why I'm going to look things over right now.

[Cobblerfone]

@All interested parties:

I'm extending my invitation to you all. IGNORE ME, and find the real scum elsewhere. If we're getting closer to the deadline and you're still undecided and/or can't find a better target then YOU ARE VERY WELCOME to cast your votes on me. It's better that way.

Let me rephrase this. "Almost is an idiot scum. Let's find the more serious ones". I propose that you all write it down on a little piece of paper and put it on the top of your screen or the keyboard. This way you will never be lost. You find someone worthy of your vote = GREAT. You don't; I'm still here. *Rolls Eyes*

Place for my thoughts: Tried reading flipped scum-slots. Not really feeling it. Realized opportunity for WIFOM might be a contributing factor, but I'll try again later.

Started reading isos of Almost, pisskop, and Masquerade. Got through page 1 of their combined iso. Thoughts:
Almost50: His play style reads as inexperienced, but with his professed age it makes me think the WIFOM is intentional, but I'm still not sure. Continue rereading.
Pisskop: Getting townvibes from his early posts so far.
Masquerade: Just barely shows up near the end of where I got to, nothing for now.

[Cobblerfone]

Yes but I won't have the time to today or tomorrow; exams.

@Mod: I will be v/la for 48 hours.

[Cobblerfone]

Well I've caught up from where I left off. Quite an exhaustive read. Plus I'm wiped out from calculus tonight.

Masquerade seems townier in recent posts. Seems to be coming from a town-mindset.

RC posted quite possibly the premiere example of confirmation-bias. From the sum total of everything that's happened he's gone from my "Never lynch pool" to "low-priority". Which is almost practically the same.

I'm reading the entire playerlist as being exhausted, myself included.

VOTE: Almost

I have one more midterm but it's a coding one. It shouldn't interfere with my participation.

[Cobblerfone]

Oh, right massclaim.

I'm a VT. Is there anyone left? I lost track. If so that actually helped me get my full-town read on RC back because there's no way there're only two PRs in a large.

[Cobblerfone]

Fucks sake.

This is open 620 all over again.

ALMOST IS FUCKING TOWN JESUS CHRIST BOTH DEAD SCUM TRIED TO PUSH THE LYNCH ONTO HIM ON SHIT PRETENSES IN A VERY NON BUSLIKE MANNER.

NO VOTING HIM.

Wait really?

I'll do the research then.

UNVOTE:

[Cobblerfone]

RC, you lied to me. You make me so sad that the site doesn't have a sad-face emoticon.

I searched for "almost" in the combined isos of thebluerose and the srmp slots and found no push.

I found only one vote for Almost. One which was explicitly named a pressure vote.

VOTE: Almost

[Cobblerfone]

Let's lynch almost.

Plz & ty.

[Cobblerfone]

This whole game has got me tired.

@Xkfyu: You really think that in a large game, town would only have two power roles?

[Cobblerfone]

@Xkfyu: You really think that in a large game, town would only have two power roles?

You say that as if there is a big difference between a setup with a seer, a vig, and a 1-shot BP and a setup with just a seer and a vig.

It's one less away from four, what I think would be the typical number of power roles in a 15+ game.

[Cobblerfone]

@Xkfyu: You really think that in a large game, town would only have two power roles?

You say that as if there is a big difference between a setup with a seer, a vig, and a 1-shot BP and a setup with just a seer and a vig.

It's one less away from four, what I think would be the typical number of power roles in a 15+ game.

Is this some kind of standard, or is it more of a guess? I've never heard of a game having a suggested number of town power roles.

I don't know if it's a standard now, but it always seemed standard to have 4 scum in a game that was about 16 players with an equal number of power roles. I remember a few of the old large opens that were that way.

[Cobblerfone]

1. PK
2. SS
3. RC
4. RC
5. Aj

Oh. Yeah, I'm fine with this.

[Cobblerfone]

Oh, woops, That quote was from when I was going to ask you why you didn't target the seer after he got a wolf, but whatever.

[Cobblerfone]

Wait, AJ's still alive?

I thought we were in mylo.

Guess I don't have to worry about sorting anyone out. Between everyone still alive though I'd go with AJ. It could be maybe anyone, but RC's a strong townread, the setup doesn't seem very balanced without the JK, and Xkyfu I'm reading as more town than AJ.

[Cobblerfone]

Because I forgot he was around. But then the previous day phase was extemely quick.

[Cobblerfone]

I'll sheep RC I guess. Help get the game over for everyone else sooner.

VOTE: Xkfyu

[Cobblerfone]

That's an odd way to talk about me preventing you from facing autolose.

Wait why would I "autolose"? There's a jailkeeper.

[Cobblerfone]

And you're right, autolose was not the correct terminology.

But you need to do fucking something. All I remember from your slot is you hard defending all the flipped scum since you replaced in.

I was a big proponent of the SRMP wagon. But with PK flipping scum and Almost flipping town I've decided to just sheep you.

[Cobblerfone]

This is mylo If it turns out AJ really isn't scum we're dead if we lynch him. But I do feel most confident in his lynch if only for setup spec.

[Cobblerfone]

The jailkeeper feels more balanced than the BP. It might be AJ. He was awfully quick to be lynching me. It might be RC manipulating the final days. Who cares about a few missing night kills when you're calling the shots?

I don't think I'll let my paranoia get to me. If you're scum RC, congrats.

VOTE: AJ

[Cobblerfone]

Who did you target, GR?

[Cobblerfone]

Well, there ya go.