NY 192: Game Shop Mafia (Over)


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Post Post #6358 (isolation #0) » Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:23 pm

Post by pieguyn »

hello

I'm not planning on reading the whole game but I do plan on ISO'ing all living players + the dead scum. if anyone wants to point me towards whatever they think is relevant, or pitch me cases on their (current) reads, I'll read/evaluate those too.

I started to catch up overnight but I didn't get much done, I only briefly skimmed RC's ISO. I'm purposefully withholding what I think about that for the time being partly so I can read it in more depth and partly bc it's about PC's slot and I wanna see what he does without influencing it.

have we massclaimed yet, and have we agreed on what the setup ratio most likely is (i.e. 13-3 or 12-4 or 12-3-1)?
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Post Post #6361 (isolation #1) » Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:42 pm

Post by pieguyn »

In post 6360, Political Clout wrote:@pie ask any questions about any one player that was on my slot. The response might take some time because I will have to read for context. I'm semi confident I will be able to tell what they may have been thinking at the time of their posts regarding logical deductions/voting patterns. If it is about word 5 sentence 3 in paragraph whatever I won't be of any use.

thanks. I will if/once I have any. :)

In post 6359, Firebringer wrote:Pie, you are obviously town.

I'm going to assume this is based off my predecessor. correct me if I'm wrong?
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Post Post #6364 (isolation #2) » Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:25 pm

Post by pieguyn »

@MOD: if a rolecop investigated a bulletproof SK, would it get "bulletproof SK" or just "bulletproof"?


i'm guessing this has been railroaded into the thread by now, forgive me if it was
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Post Post #6365 (isolation #3) » Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:33 pm

Post by pieguyn »

does anyone know if RC's bussing meta was referenced in the game thread anytime on D1 or D2?
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Post Post #6366 (isolation #4) » Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Post by pieguyn »

I'm wondering what the fuck was up with the nokill last night. I first thought a mafia traitor could possibly make sense given what's flipped so far, but if you're scum and you know there's a traitor out there, and thus no SK, why the fuck do you shoot the BP claim (which in this case would have very good odds of being the traitor anyway)? I doubt it was an intentional nokill, either, since in the case of no SK it would cause them to need another mislynch.

depending on how AP answers my question, this would point to either 13-3 and AP made a deliberate mindfuck setup, or 12-3-1 with the SK slow-playing it. whether the SK in the latter case would be DN is another matter entirely.

if we haven't massclaimed yet, I think it would probably be a good idea.
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Post Post #6368 (isolation #5) » Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:18 pm

Post by pieguyn »

I think you probably were. the most obvious reason is that there's only one mafia left and they feared you being an SK. there could be another explanation that I'm not thinking of.
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Post Post #6372 (isolation #6) » Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:42 pm

Post by pieguyn »

if everyone remaining is a VT, i would bet a large amount of money it's only 3 mafia, since outside of neighbors (null) t would be rolecop + miller + literally nothing else where the rolecop can get 1 clear and 1 false innocent. that would practically be mountainous in terms of power.

this is part of why i think a massclaim would be useful; if something unexpected comes up, we'll have a better idea of how many mafia are left
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Post Post #6373 (isolation #7) » Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:46 pm

Post by pieguyn »

In post 6370, Golden Robster wrote:Surely they would be pursuing a lynch on DN rather than trying to kill him at night if they really thought he was sk? Or are scum trying to confirm that he is the sk/bulletproof townie?

i imagine this would depend on how much support for it there was. in the few posts from D4/D5 i've looked at, it didn't seem like there was support for it, but i could be completely wrong on this as i've hardly seen any of it outside of the posts from the ISO i'm currently reading (tis a surprise which one ~)
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Post Post #6374 (isolation #8) » Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:54 pm

Post by pieguyn »

i'm prob going to put most of these in spoiler tags bc my preferred format is the quote wall, and i don't want to make a post which takes like half the page. it shouldn't be too difficult to parse, though, so would like if ppl could read anyway and tell me their thoughts.

Spoiler: Wake/Errant
In post 240, Wake1 wrote:
In post 158, Dwlee99 wrote:
Well if it's not your meta to vote hop then it's scummy.


VOTE: Dwlee99

Except meta as you know is manipulable, and forgets that players do try new things regardless of alignment.

horrible wagon jump here. i'm reading this as a purely opportunistic vote; it was when dwlee was already the leading wagon with like 4 votes and the reason behind it isn't necessarily bad, but not groundbreaking either.

i also read this as a scum post tonally. it comes off more like he's attempting to coast and take a more neutral position without getting too directly involved in the argument, where given the argument he was pushing (dwlee's push coming off as disingenuous) i would expect a town response to be more along the lines of directly challenging it "no it isn't, and you're BS'ing here".

In post 1285, Wake1 wrote:
In post 1237, RadiantCowbells wrote:I want Wake and DN's opinions on this lynch before anyone hammers.


Gimme the shindig in ONE sentence why he deserves rope. ONE. Make it count.

In post 1287, RadiantCowbells wrote:
In post 1285, Wake1 wrote:
In post 1237, RadiantCowbells wrote:I want Wake and DN's opinions on this lynch before anyone hammers.


Gimme the shindig in ONE sentence why he deserves rope. ONE. Make it count.


Because his reads are inconsistent with his stated positions and there's no evidence to suggest him doing any scumhunting besides picking general thread mentalities and declaring them his reads.

In post 1288, Wake1 wrote:
In post 1287, RadiantCowbells wrote:
In post 1285, Wake1 wrote:
In post 1237, RadiantCowbells wrote:I want Wake and DN's opinions on this lynch before anyone hammers.


Gimme the shindig in ONE sentence why he deserves rope. ONE. Make it count.


Because his reads are inconsistent with his stated positions and there's no evidence to suggest him doing any scumhunting besides picking general thread mentalities and declaring them his reads.


Well let's lynch the fucker then. What are you people waiting for?

Hey, I wanna hammer. I've ALWAYS wanted to just bring a hammer on someone just like AH HA HA HA DIE FUCKER!!!

Can I? Please? I promise to clean up the mess. Where's that hammer dammit?

In post 1289, RadiantCowbells wrote:Go hammer, it's L-1.

In post 1290, Wake1 wrote:
In post 1289, RadiantCowbells wrote:Go hammer, it's L-1.


OH YOU'D LIKE THAT WOULDN'T YOU?

this exchange came off really awkward, and i think it looked more like forced distancing than anything. first off, given how stubborn he was acting over the _one_ read on dwlee he had posted earlier, the progression from 1237 to 1285 feels out of place - i don't think he would kinda-skeptically ask to be sold on a wagon and then immediately go "WHEE HAMMER". then the progression from 1285 to 1290 felt out of place too. *if* i'm assuming he is actually town who decided "fuck it, i should just hammer", it still doesn't make any sense for him to suddenly back out of it and jump on RC instead. usually when i see town who is drastically behind and just wants to end the day, they're in a position where they're not capable of giving that much of a shit and would just hammer. there's no internal consistency here.

i'm wondering what scum-Wake would have to gain from bothering with this given he would have known dave was scum, though, since the tone is completely different from his previous posts. if he saw his partner hard bussing dave, why _wouldn't_ he just hammer and hope he'd get town points for "lolhammering scum"? i can maybe see it as him thinking him hammering prematurely would be viewed as scummy despite dave's alignment, or point to inside knowledge. or it could just be that he thought distancing from RC would be a better use of his energy and he didn't realize how much he was forcing it. /shrug

i'm just going to put a disclaimer here that i have not evaluated/cross-referenced Errant's catchup at all bc it is just making my head hurt. i will probably try and come back to it later.

from there:

In post 6247, Errantparabola wrote:This doesn't change the fact that pisskop is town
Phoneposting so give me like 3 hours and I'll be back

i'm taking issue with this pisskop read, because there was absolutely no follow-through with it. after this post, pisskop gained a sizable wagon, and their next progression of posts went like this:

In post 6268, Errantparabola wrote:Im going to iso fire later today because i remember cow being someone i wanted to lynch.

In post 6272, Errantparabola wrote:you're probably right. zulfy slot is town by RC interaction as well.
i see no reason for cabd and Keyser to be lynch immune.

In post 6279, Errantparabola wrote:
In post 6276, DeathNote wrote:I'm not sure what your point is? RC was going to get lynched so pushing on him and creating a large case isn't that hard. I'm glad he was so adamant about it but I would have bussed the shit out of RC as soon as that cop flipped town.


Basically this. Due to the nature of the game state I think interaction tells on RC post Nero lynch don't swing alignment either way. Town can easily be convinced RC is town and scum can easily hard bus RC based on believing that RC's life is on a timer and the other way around too. That's why I'd only really take stock in tells pre RC claim to influence a read.

In post 6305, Errantparabola wrote:Pk, is your read on gr based on titus?
Because i agree that i got no town vibes from titus, but i forgave it because zulfy was rather town to me.

there was no mention of pisskop at all up until the last post (which was their last D5 post), and there was nothing along the lines of them trying to convince other people their pisskop reads were wrong or them trying to derail the wagon. if i was in Errant's position here, with a town read on pisskop, i would have been a hell of a lot more aggressive than this. as it is, there was literally fucking nothing - a few reads on other players and then them asking pisskop himself about his Titus read.

the last one felt especially out of place. i sure as hell don't approach a wagon on my town read by ... bouncing reads off them ... i put all of my focus and energy into questioning the people *on* the fucking wagon, not the person who's being wagoned, which is probably one of the most useless things i can think of in terms of derailing it. it felt more like they were just sitting back and letting the wagon happen as opposed to actually doing anything about it.

in general, my impression is that Errant has completely faded away after their catchup. i could easily see this coming from scum who isn't sure how they can generate passable content after catching up/is trying to coast. i *have* seen Errant play similarly as scum in my last game with them in terms of posting walls of content and then fading with no follow-through on any of it (basically the same pattern as here), i don't know if they have a tendency to play the same way as town, though.

i haven't checked Errant's catchup in depth, nor have i checked the overall activity level around D4/D5 (if it was generally low, i could be wrong about my impression of them being ridiculously passive).
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Post Post #6375 (isolation #9) » Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:23 pm

Post by pieguyn »

OK I have to point this out because holy fuck.

FA/mollie's slot is basically conftown based on D2, right? (and ftr Nosferatu is legit, he comes from the same site I came from.)
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Post Post #6376 (isolation #10) » Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:08 pm

Post by pieguyn »

In post 4540, Titus wrote:Why would DN claim BP? Like at all. BP is what you claim after you think you're shot.

Wake and DN are likely not groupscum. Unless Wake emulates his scum meta real closely, I am inclined to pencil in Wake as town.

mental note to look through Wake's scum meta later.
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Post Post #6378 (isolation #11) » Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:10 pm

Post by pieguyn »

Spoiler: TheCow/Fire
so TheCow's early D1 play is actually something I look sideways at even after reading it a couple of times. the openness reads town on a gut level, but there is actually no internal consistency anywhere: he basically is doing things entirely randomly, which has me concerned it's coming from a POV of scum playing as chaotically as possible in order to appear like "impulsive town" while hoping no one realizes he's actually scum hunting. as one example, none of the progression from FA () to DN () to Nosferatu/Wicked () has any explanation at all anywhere. I don't know if there is anything to be made out of this.

In post 721, TheCow wrote:
In post 673, RadiantCowbells wrote:I'm assuming based on past experience that TheCow is just a twat regardless of alignment, but I can't confirm for sure.

I'm leaning town on him right now though.

ye can confirm im literally a vagina

there must be a lot of day cops running around this thread. I really want to help you guys out with scum hunting but my lethargy levels are off the chart. No need to worry. With all of these free guily and inno results being thrown around we should be g o l d e b o i s

I really, really don't know if I see this coming from an RC partner. I kinda think if he was scum it would take some confidence for him as scum to assume the angle RC is pushing would be believable enough for other people to accept, and snap-react in the way he did here.

In post 2161, TheCow wrote:Dwlee's reads are garbage and their rhetoric is self-defeating. Not someone really worth listening to. Will keep their thoughts under consideration for future use depending on the actual flip, though I doubt anything can come of that. Still reading. aaaaa this is dizzying.
JarJar seems pretty backwards. Their reads are full of conviction, though, so they might be worth say -- two cents. I don't agree with any of this shit.
frogger is probably town if both Dwlee and Daves are scum -- the inverse of this read is a null. His seems genuinly proud at "finding" scum. I mean, the busing of two players aside, it looks legit.
Looking at Aero. Cross-referencing their ISO for this shit. Also reading the thread. ye. Not liking this slot much at all. I'm not pulling up quotes (I'm doing this in notepad and I hate bbcoding in notepad) but their early play feels fabricated. Early reads don't make much sense -- starting from 100 or so. The developments aren't well-founded at the time, either. Then you move into those sp00ky meta reads. Cutting this short because I still have about 40 something pages to actually read and whatever else, but I'm sure this can be touched on more later if others want to or if it becomes a top-scum read of mine.
FA 1105. Why those players in particular? I just find it odd that you are looking at _those_ players, when there are 15 of us out here. Two voids, at that.
Davesaz's reads are full of lul (looking at 971 rn). How top-heavy it is with the sea of nulls. Made me lol rl is all.
frogger, post 1121, why thsoe players in particular? 1120?

FA just replaced out. What? Okay. Okay, no she didn't. Okay. This fucking game rn.
As of like 1150 frogger was a top-town read for me. Page 47 is kind of making me question that. Also, all these people saying they're going to replace out -- please stop being so dramatic. It makes me want to vig you.

"1) Dave flips scum: 100% certain scum is one of Dwlee or Aero and we can sort that shit out"
What?
"2) Dave flips town: Dwlee is nearly confscum."
So Dwlee is 90% scum is what you're saying. What happened to [conftown] Aero?

Can someone vig frogger so he stops talking please? He's giving me a headache.
As of about p50 I'm scum reading Aero, frogger, DN. JarJar is either lulzy bad scum or just a VI. Maybe I'll do a meta read later. Maybe. I'm split on Dwleee but for the sake of taking a more definite stance, I'll say town. PK looks town.

dave being in a hood changes things. Gives a more "mathematical" basis for this case. I doubt both DN and dave are gonna be minority together, though. SK or a second minority, perhaps.

D2 started, I guess? This Cow hate is real rn guys ;-;
Emoticons by FA. Putting a pin in that.
I wonder what happened to "confirmed scum dwlee" :distracted
Nevermind, found it.

Oh my, the FA wagon is taking off. Interesting. RC, you're votint Zulfy for voting FA? Or is that not the case?

this is a kind of catchup I usually dislike because it involves a lot of past commentary, and surface level commentary with no depth behind it, which is a kind of thing I think is more likely to come from scum trying to force content. on the other hand, there is stuff in here that I like

In post 2161, TheCow wrote:
I'm stopping my read forward to look back for a second. Wake was a topscum, DN was a bottom null. All three were in a hood together. ye pretty bad reads t b h



Moving on for now. k this game right now. Its kind of a circlejerk. A lot is happening, but nothing worth updating my reads here. Going to p65 now. How my god, I have 20 pages left. Please tell me it gets better. This is horrible.
Holy shit, RC is voting FA. Nevermind. jk.
Goddammit, this is shittttttttttttttttt p73. I really hope the lynch doesn't happen when I'm trapped reading this shit. Fuck people are replacing out. Goddammit. This is why we can't have nice things.
This is literally the worst game I have ever had the displeasure to read. p77. Goddammit, my reads are getting jumbled because I had to wade through all of that.

Oh thank lord, its over. p78. No I can't p82. I'm done with this garbage. I'll finish later. I'm not even editing this.

In post 2162, TheCow wrote:I'm still like 6 pages behind but I can't keep reading. I actually read all of that FA bulshit and I'm done. I'll be back in 6 hours because I'm a little dead inside rn.

In post 2165, TheCow wrote:I lied, I just read the rest of the thread. That was a different kind of stupid. I literally cannot even right now.

In post 2472, TheCow wrote:flag post (so I don't get lost)

this game is giving me the diabetes

this is probably a really bad reason to town read someone, but this series of posts where he went insane looked organic as shit.

as a more concrete point:

1. the last post is a kind of idiosyncrasy that I feel would be more likely to come from town. this is pretty much entirely gut/tonal, though, so I don't put much faith in it.

2. the bolded I think is a slight town tell - in my experience I think town are slightly more likely to think about "accuracy of reads" on a constant basis as he did here, whereas I expect scum to only give a shit when they think they would be expected to or at "key" moments.

In post 4544, Firebringer wrote:VOTE: RadiantCowbells

Hey guys, what's going on?
I joined this lame game to make it more fun.
Expect lots of images of cute dragons.

In post 4548, Firebringer wrote:
In post 4547, RadiantCowbells wrote:Someone want to explain why scum!RC intentionally CCed a town PR to get them lynched?

because if you can I'd love to see you try.

So you could say this statement.

Jesus RC we all know you do the craziest plays in existence, you think we are stupid?

this was immediately at the start of D3. would Fire have replaced in and, with 1 mafia dead, immediately start power bussing who is almost certainly his only partner? this especially when from what I've seen of his scum play he is somewhat bus-averse, but I could be wrong on this (last time I saw him as scum one of his partners faked a guilty on him and rather than making a hell-fire death push back on her from the POV of her supposedly being confscum, which is what town would do when pushed with a guilty or what scum might do when guiltied, he kinda sorta just accepted it and got lynched without doing much about it).

In post 4650, Firebringer wrote:
In post 4643, pirate mollie wrote:links?

I want more than 1 game. I mean if he does this "all of the time" it shldn't be hard.

I ain't hunting for links for you mollie.
Recently RC has:
Claimed he was mason with me in order to save me from getting mislynched, RC was scum.
Claimed he was a Bus Driver and got massive town credit for that lynch, RC was scum.

RadiantCowbells loves gambits more than I love AtE.

And I god damn love AtE

this post has a kind of abrasiveness I feel is more indicative of town Fire. this is the kind of thing that is really easy to verify and post when you're asked for it - scum wouldn't lie about it bc it's fact-checkable, and it gives them a way to look town because they're being perfectly honest about it. if Fire was actually scum here, why *wouldn't* he have put the extra bit of spin on this by actually linking the games? it would have at least made him look more credible in mollie's viewpoint, which tbh I think would be especially preferable here if he was bussing.

what he did here read more like he felt it should have been obvious, and didn't want to bother pandering to her when it should have been clear he wasn't lying about his experience.

In post 6204, Firebringer wrote:
In post 6184, JarJarDrinks wrote:@firebringer

There is one day left. It doesn't look like there's a likelihood of a deathnote lynch. Your vote on him right now might as well be written on a cocktail napkin and mailed to the north pole. It's a completely worthless vote. Please participate in todays lynch.

I am not lynching Dwlee.
Bite me.

more abrasiveness I kinda like. this one is more gut, though.

In post 4685, Firebringer wrote:
In post 4681, pirate mollie wrote:put up or shut up

I am going to shut up then.

Going back into a corner.

again, if Fire was scum bussing here, I don't get the point of this as a scum strategy.

In post 6204, Firebringer wrote:
In post 6184, JarJarDrinks wrote:@firebringer

There is one day left. It doesn't look like there's a likelihood of a deathnote lynch. Your vote on him right now might as well be written on a cocktail napkin and mailed to the north pole. It's a completely worthless vote. Please participate in todays lynch.

I am not lynching Dwlee.
Bite me.

the way he approached the dwlee lynch D4 is something I had mixed feelings about when I first saw it. I kinda like the conviction here (there are some more conviction posts before it, this is just the strongest one). at first, I had some amount of paranoia that he didn't so much as vote the counterwagon (pisskop) or do much of anything to really derail it - he kept calling for people to lynch DN and that was basically it - until I looked back and saw he had pisskop as his top town read.

a same kind of situation happened D5, with pisskop, but this time he did at least vote the counterwagon, which makes sense.

I don't know if this means much because I don't know Fire to be someone who plays as town like I do in terms of laying out reads and hard pushing stuff, he generally is way more of a relaxed player who plays more on impulse/gut and listening to/appealing to people he likes playing with. I don't think there was really anyone he as town would have tried to appeal to here. in that sense, the way he handled it probably is par for the course for him, but I'm hesitant to write it off.

initial impression here is that it's possibly town, but I'm not anywhere near just writing it off.

k I'll probably be back to continue tomorrow. again, feel free to pitch whatever reads/cases you have if you want me to look through it, I usually don't read posts "cold" like this so it would help me get into the game/verify what I do come up with.
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Post Post #6385 (isolation #12) » Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:50 am

Post by pieguyn »

In post 6380, AngryPidgeon wrote:
In post 6364, pieguyn wrote:
@MOD: if a rolecop investigated a bulletproof SK, would it get "bulletproof SK" or just "bulletproof"?

SK is an alignment, so a rolecop would only see 'bulletproof' in that situation.

ok

so right now, i'm thinking this setup is single faction, 13-3, and there are no other PRs in the setup. right now we have

mafia cop, mafia neighbor, ???
vs
town rolecop, town miller, town BP, town neighbor, VTs

i think, if i'm right about what the setup is, it was deliberately designed so that every single role result would be misleading. the setup is 16p, which is too much for 3 mafia (unless it's a near mountainous game, which it would be if i'm right on this) but not enough for 4, which would suggest an SK. rolecop is usually a scum role, while cop is usually a town role. BP would serve as a false positive for the rolecop, and miller serves as a false positive for the mafia cop. the only useful result anyone can get at all would be the rolecop clearing the miller.

this is all one possible theory, but the other reason i want a massclaim right now is that if there's nothing else in the setup i would think the setup points to DN being town.
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Post Post #6388 (isolation #13) » Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:35 am

Post by pieguyn »

<- VT, which was probably obvious after my last post.

outside of Fire, i say just claim whenever you arrive.
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Post Post #6389 (isolation #14) » Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:43 am

Post by pieguyn »

Fire I'm going to be so pissed if you're scum. I think you're town, though.
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Post Post #6391 (isolation #15) » Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:52 am

Post by pieguyn »

usually i expect scum to be significantly more hesitant to launch massclaims (they'll obviously follow along with them when they do happen, but they won't be the one who actually starts it unless it's a foregone conclusion), and i wouldn't expect scum to just claim PR before it was set in stone a massclaim was happening and with no idea of what anyone else (sans DN) is.
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Post Post #6392 (isolation #16) » Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:54 am

Post by pieguyn »

Zulfy's ISO is interesting.

mental note that I should read his RC interactions in context instead of attempting to read it cold.
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Post Post #6394 (isolation #17) » Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:59 am

Post by pieguyn »

being the first to claim in the way that you did isn't just "unexpected", it's actually legit risky (so many ways it can backfire), and in this case if it fails probably entirely kills your chances of winning the game.

so ya I would be kinda pissed if you went for something like that and everything aligned to make it work somehow.
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Post Post #6396 (isolation #18) » Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:03 pm

Post by pieguyn »

In post 1508, Zulfy wrote:Oh btw I'm pretty sure you scumslipped.

Pedit: Yes, that's exactly right. Discrediting your defense of FA. That does need lynch!

this accusation looks really, really, _really_ bad with the knowledge RC was scum.

there's more (the whole push looks bad in general tbh) but this is the most egregious one.
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Post Post #6398 (isolation #19) » Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:45 pm

Post by pieguyn »

In post 4783, RadiantCowbells wrote:I'm 2-shot cop.

I'd like to at least live till tomorrow so I can out whether DN is ascetic or whether I got roleblocked.

If I'm getting lynched, you better lynch the shit out of Keyser and Titus tomorrow.

RC was literally confirmed scum as soon as this post happened. paying attention to see how people react to this.

(yes I am actually reading through D3. save me now -.-)
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Post Post #6401 (isolation #20) » Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:38 pm

Post by pieguyn »

Titus and RC would be capable of hard bussing each other the way they would have done on D3 _if_ it's Titus-slot, right?

I want to say yes, but god _damn_. I'd like confirmation on this.
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Post Post #6404 (isolation #21) » Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:39 pm

Post by pieguyn »

I meant claiming in that way as scum; as town it makes sense.

do either of you disagree with massclaim?
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Post Post #6407 (isolation #22) » Fri Feb 12, 2016 6:39 pm

Post by pieguyn »

is it possible RC would take personal issues into account when deciding how he would handle a scum partner? i.e. is it possible he viewed Titus as a liability and thought he'd have better odds with her *dead*?

i'm trying to figure out if there would be a strategic reason behind D3 if Titus-slot is scum and there's only 3 mafia, outside of the obvious (distancing to oblivion and hoping whoever is left can make it to the end), and i know RC has had issues with Titus in the past. if there are 4 mafia, it becomes a lot more trivial.
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Post Post #6415 (isolation #23) » Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:00 pm

Post by pieguyn »

Spoiler: Zulfy/Titus (pass 1)
In post 989, Zulfy wrote:
In post 882, Nosferatu wrote:Out of all of dave's posts, only two contain actual statements that one could derive reads from. The rest are just a series of questions and a few fairly obvious statements.


This is him voting Dwlee. He comes in, a few pages have gone by, first thing he does is hop on the current maxwagon and give some vague reason for it.
"Scum caught for the wrong reason" - What does this even mean?
"The reaction looks like it" - uhh no, he just looks frustrated, not anti-town.

In post 774, davesaz wrote:
In post 756, Nosferatu wrote:VOTE: davesaz
pedit: oh he's back

So what, you're picking someone who hasn't posted in a while to pressure?
I thought you liked your vote because you thought it was on scum.


Dwlee going apeshit over Keyser's "scumslip" is changing my view of him.
I must find this
That's too tenuous to be something that scum would be comfortable pushing, especially in the face of such an apathetic reaction to it. And even moreso with a couple of heavy posters actively calling it into question. I'm not really sure he's town, but it's enough to move him back to null.
UNVOTE:
[...]
Someone pointed out that the V/LA player wasn't posting and that it was scummy. Not paying attention but not reallly alignment indicative.
Woooahhh, first off why aren't you paying attention, secondly why doesn't this seems scummy to you (+1), lastly who was it?

[...]

Was it DN who was making such a big deal about not liking meta? I'm always suspicious of meta clears, especially mutual clears.

This is a lengthier one,
You did not answer Dave's question, Nosferatu
but there's nothing he's actually saying, he's just edging out on everyone he talks about.
[...]


I like Nosferatu and Keyser as town, they aren't antagonizing anybody in this shop full of emotional players and have come up with original arguments.
In post 886, Aeronaut wrote:
I don't know about you guys, but I read this post in the voice of the CinemaSins guy.

:lol: Maybe, add a Latino accent.
But yo hey,
don't you have thoughts on what I wrote?
In post 888, davesaz wrote:
In post 882, Nosferatu wrote:
The fact that there's no train of thought in his posts, and no actions in his posts either, points to the fact that he isn't interested in clearing the game, something town would want to do; thereby making dave obviously not town-aligned.

Feel free to look over any of the NY's in my wiki list, or in fact most of the games. Asking questions is how I figure things out. You should also be able to easily find a pattern where I don't assume that conventional wisdom is true. Look at how hard I jump on people for "clears" -- easiest to find if you search for "lock clear" as there is one memorable game where that phrase features a lot. It especially worries me a lot when people give very easy townreads.

I don't have to ask about train of thought, but what do you mean by no actions? I'm not one who throws my vote around, if that's what you mean.

Maybe you already answered this, but if not: What's your response to the charge that you added your vote to the biggest wagon? Why is Radiant Cowbells a scumlean?

this post initially pinged bc he gave Nos a town read based on his davesaz case, but he didn't actually evaluate the argument itself; no "I agree with this" or "I disagree" or any stance. the question at the end felt more like an afterthought with no followup. but I don't know if this post is really as bad as it looks (as in, it would not be difficult for scum to do more than he would have done here if he was scum).

In post 995, Zulfy wrote:RC, I asked you how you can tell when Frozen is being town vs being scummy. Share this info with the fam pls.

In post 998, RadiantCowbells wrote:
In post 995, Zulfy wrote:RC, I asked you how you can tell when Frozen is being town vs being scummy. Share this info with the fam pls.


Already did.

She relates to me differently, she's a lot less scumhunty and more sort of calling people scum and shoving lynches through, and she gets a lot more flip-out-y with her emotional reactions.

this line of questioning was never followed up on. I don't have anything else to say about this, I need it for a later post.

In post 1469, Zulfy wrote:I believe Frozen Angel is simply a bad scum player. I initially thought it was just communication troubles but she has not improved.

I was also up for a wickedestjstr lynch cuz I thought he was SK, but there was only 1 night kill.

Of course, that's not definitive proof that there isn't an SK but I'm a little bit more insecure about it now.
Cases incoming.

Pedit: I'll be with you in a moment, RC.

I take issue with both scum reads in this post. the FA read is inconsistent. if he had really thought FA's play could be attributed to "communication troubles", what reason did he have for believing they would ... suddenly disappear on D2 ... if she was town? it is not something that would be easily fixed as he's claiming it would be here. the Wicked read is odd bc most reason I could think of for him being "SK" would just be general scum tells which would apply to him being mafia as well - it's almost impossible to actually distinguish between mafia/SK play early game, and his only given reason was him lurking, which should be as much of a mafia tell as an SK tell at that point.

what it looks like he did with the FA read was he found some bullshit reason to 180 the read after he saw a wagon form on her. that's it. I'm reading it as a purely opportunistic read.

Zulfy spends a fuckton of time on D2 pushing FA, and then pushing RC as scum with her. I take serious issue with this push in that it looked like he was forcing the RC scum read. ironically, I actually find myself agreeing with a lot of what RC said about him (it's a good thing I wasn't in the game at that point . . .). the major problem is Zulfy did not even stop
at all
to consider the possibility that RC could have been town who was hilariously wrong about FA's alignment, until RC himself pointed it out - until then it was "lynch FA, if she's scum RC is basically confscum". assuming two players are scum, at the same time, in order to push a read is a huge logical stretch I don't think makes sense from town. I would expect a town line of thought to be more along the lines of "your defense of FA is really bad/your read is bad and this is why" and then reevaluating later, not "you're scum with her so I'm going to use this as an excuse to not actually address anything you're writing about her", which is what he did and something I expect more coming from scum because it's way easier to push than actually deconstructing arguments.

I think there is strong scum motivation to play this way. it's distancing without actually distancing. it gives him an avenue to RC all he wants and generate as much RC-related content as he wants, but not actually pressure him or put him in danger of a lynch.

^all this is more the case when you consider the exchange in 995/998. Zulfy was apparently concerned with RC's defense, but
never
followed up on that line of questioning. he apparently concluded RC had to be FA's partner, based on that very succinct high-level explanation. this in particular is a huge logical leap and not a deduction I would ever make as town.

In post 1488, Zulfy wrote:Pedit fails me again.
Nothing wrong with what I do, fro99er. Answer my question, please.

In post 1483, Nero Cain wrote:if RC flips scum would you think FA is scum?


Yea I guess. I wouldn't want to lynch RC first though. I can see RC being town defending FA. But if FA flips red then that really draws me towards scumRC. You get me?

Pedit: G-dang. I can't be the only one who sees this.
If only supreme leader was still here.

Pedit2: Let's discuss.

he actually specifically makes a point of making sure FA is pressured before RC is and rejecting an RC push as a result. which could make sense given FA was the leading wagon and RC had no votes. literally, don't know if this means something or if it is just scum trying to distance while being afraid to commit to a real scum read.

In post 1491, Zulfy wrote:Ooh I almost forgot
In post 971, davesaz wrote:davesaz, Keyser Söze, Aeronaut, Nosferatu
JarJarDrinks, Dwlee99, Fro99er,
Nero Cain, Zulfy, Frozen Angel, DeathNote,
RadiantCowbells, Wickedestjr,
pisskop, Wake88,
TheCow



Always scum in those scumleans.

In post 1493, Zulfy wrote:My case is about FA being deadweight scum. The only reasonable defense this deadweight scum has had is your meta defense on her. Metadefense that I've chosen to disregard because you can be her scumbuddy. This makes sense to me.

The thing is centered on her though. As I said if she turns out to be town then your read on her can be explained completely by your little cybercrush.
I don't think she'll turn out to be town, tho. I think she'll turn out to be scum.
Because the only defense I can buy can also be interpreted as a scumbuddy's intrigue.

I mean, maybe I'm wrong too. I don't scumread you, but my scumread on FA depends on you being scum.

Shit's difficult.

In post 1494, Zulfy wrote:I guess maybe you can still be town regardless of FA's slot.

Fuck mang.
This is some grade A WIFOM and I have nobody to blame it on.

In post 1501, Zulfy wrote:
In post 1495, RadiantCowbells wrote:
In post 1478, Zulfy wrote:
Please continue listening,f olks




He mentions me more than he mentions FA for fuck's sake.
There is no need to mention FA, we have all seen her scummy ass scumming up the place.

Your entire case is predicated on my meta defense on FA.
Your meta defense doesn't make FA scum. Your defense on FA is kaputt if you can be scum. Which you can be.

So what the fuck happens if FA flips town? I'm cleared? WKing? Why couldn't I be town who was legitimately fooled by FA?
I don't think anyone can be fooled by FA. FA's no fooler. But you have a point. I'll admit I should have thought better about what happens next.

Pretty sure Zulfy's just trying to mudsling on me here and the FA part is just him adding an excuse to jump on the biggest wagon.
I do want to jump on the FA wagon, but only because she's scummy. I'd have given out my jestr case first if that's what I had walked into.

I bet you so much fucking money one of his partners told him to push on me today, because that's what he's really doing, but he's hedging his bets by voting FA?
An extremely baseless conspiracy. What the hell is this?

I don't even know.


My case is about FA being deadweight scum. The only reasonable defense this deadweight scum has had is your meta defense on her. Metadefense that I've chosen to disregard because you can be her scumbuddy. This makes sense to me.


I WAS THE REASON WE LYNCHED DAVESAZ. I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO PROBLEMS BUSSING MY PARTNERS IF THEY'RE DEADWEIGHT. ASK ANYONE IN THIS GAME.
Woooooahhhhh are you saying Davesaz was your partner???

FA AND I _ROFLSTOMPED_ 1737 TOGETHER. THE TOWNBLOC WAS US TWO, AS SCUM.
Please reword

I WOULD NEVER STICK MY NECK OUT DEFENDING MY PARTNER, EVER.
I can't just
believe
you tho

IF ANYTHING A FA SCUMFLIP SHOULD FUCKING CLEAR ME.


Yea like I said, I should have thought harder about that part.
I like where this is going tho.

OK. my issue with this push is that he is completely lacking conviction. he apparently went from being sure enough RC/FA is scum to point out preflip associations, to then backtracking on it and going "hurrdurr, I didn't think through it all the way". notably, he got a metric fuckton of blowback for the push when he made it. I don't really think he'd go from saying "An extremely baseless conspiracy. What the hell is this?" to then thinking "meh I might be wrong" in one post; usually when you say stuff like that it _increases_ your conviction, not the other way around (since from your POV the other person is just making shit up). it makes sense as him seeing his push was making him look really bad and trying to save face, though.

In post 1504, RadiantCowbells wrote:If her town flip can be explained as my "cybercrush", why the fuck can't my misread on scum!FA be explained as my "cybercrush"?

You're claiming that my ability to read her is impacted by my "cybercrush" on FA.

Why does that only apply if she's town?

In post 1505, RadiantCowbells wrote:Like this basically strikes me as an excuse to push for FA and discredit my reads while giving him an out to try not to 1v1 me after she flips town.

Either that or he's literally brain damaged.

I'm down for a lynch either way atm.

In post 1507, RadiantCowbells wrote:No, you're voting FA you twat.

So yeah, all that shit boils down to discrediting my defense of FA.

This needs lynch, now.

In post 1508, Zulfy wrote:Oh btw I'm pretty sure you scumslipped.

Pedit: Yes, that's exactly right. Discrediting your defense of FA. That does need lynch!

this is the one I really really hate (as I said before). in the first place, there is literally nothing in here that could be remotely construed as a scum slip. but again, he is completely lacking conviction. he never even so much as
EXPLAINED
the "scum slip" he saw. usually if you see something like that, you're all over it trying to get people to see what you saw, since obviously if it's right you've confirmed someone as scum. he should have wanted to be drawing attention onto it, not the fucking opposite (which is all I can think of if he didn't think to so much as explain it). I don't believe he actually thought he found a scum slip here, I think he was just attempting to come up with as much shit as he could and not attempting to analyze objectively bc he knew RC was scum in advance.

In post 2715, Zulfy wrote:
In post 2712, Fro99er wrote:
In post 2710, Zulfy wrote:And yes those are scumpoints fro99er.

You thinking they were townpoints only illustrates how little you've been paying attention to my posts.

So does that make me scum?

It means anything you say about me should be taken with a grain of Norwegian salt.
Pedit: Not scum.

In post 2697, Zulfy wrote:
In post 2694, Fro99er wrote:
In post 2691, Zulfy wrote:Now answer me this: Why is my noncommittal to pisskop enough for you to vote for me?

Your push on FA was crap
You serious?
and your noncommittal to PK made you look like you were lightly bussing him.

How is this helping you sort me?


Why couldn't it just look like what it was? Why'd you feel the need to scumlink me to pisskop?

Pedit: Dwlee is useless.

In post 2717, Zulfy wrote:
In post 2716, Fro99er wrote:
In post 2708, Zulfy wrote:Fro99er is the one trying to spot associatives. (pisskop and I)

So, in other words, my normal town play.


Then change it.

horrible posts here. the third one (and the general Fro9 push) is a fairly obvious contradiction, given he did the same fucking thing earlier, but I don't know if that in itself is scum indicative.

In post 3862, Zulfy wrote:These two (PK and FAslot) can't possibly be bussing each other can they?

Who has an unshakable town read on FA? Last I checked it seemed that JJD did, because she was emotional, and that can't possibly be redirected in a scumslot.

Anyone else tho?

this is the kind of thing I wish I was actually in the game for because I fucking hate posts like this, but I see them coming from town a lot. I usually expect scum to be more likely to say things like this in order to have easy material to comment on. it might make sense in this scenario, though, given he was building up to it for a while.

In post 4460, Zulfy wrote:YOU HAMMERED NERO???

In post 4488, Zulfy wrote:
AngryPidgeon get me out of here, this is by far the worst mafia game I have ever played

I thought this looked kinda town. he spends all game day pushing FA, who was supposedly "obvious scum" from his POV to the point where the lynch was a foregone conclusion. he comes back and finds the Nero/RC CC and that Nero got flashlynched. he gets pissed off and replaces out of frustration.

the other explanation is that if he is scum he saw it being a foregone conclusion that RC would be lynched the next day and gave up, but that is more of a stretch

I don't really get anything out of Titus' posts. my eyes were basically glazing over it by the end.

In post 5163, Titus wrote:Keysor, we are lynching RC today. Period. We lynch Pisskop tomorrow. Period.

Don't get distracted.

Pisskop, VCA is my thing. You are. End of discussion. I haework.

In post 5263, Titus wrote:
In post 5261, Wake1 wrote:
In post 4748, pirate mollie wrote:
In post 4742, pisskop wrote:No. miller can exist as either. And since there was no alignment in the role there no reason to believe he is confed.


can you point me to the game where you saw a scum miller? I mean I have seen scum claim to be miller but I haven't actually seen a scum miller flip it wld have to be advertised as a bastard game since it wld be misleading mod info based on roles.

wicked and wake slot are both probably confirmed town but I probably need to look up the rules and set up design for normals. it doesn't help that both slots have been lazy and apathetic but wicked did post before the end of the previous day round so there is that. we just need to find a way to get him engaged and focused.


Honestly, all the fighting and bitching sucked the fun out of it for me. It's really tough trying to make sense of the gamescape when the thread is flooded with posts and spats. Just being honest.


Help me lynch RC and Pisskop. No more drama then. :)

In post 5332, Titus wrote:
In post 5321, pirate mollie wrote:
In post 5286, RadiantCowbells wrote:Who are you proposing we wagon instead?

I could do DeathNote, Keyser, or Mollie.

Do you think RC is scum? If so, vote her. No shiny distractions. I think Mollie is obvtown and have less than zero desire to vote her.


Note distancing from my town flip by calling me a shiny distraction as opposed to scum.


what happened to your confscum read on titus?

lemme guess you just wanna lynch whoever you can as long as they are not on your scumteam.

nos/lld you are such a nasty piece of work but I bet no1 will give a shit that you are playing directly against your wc cos I know that if you are town you wld know that I was too but by all means hide behind passive aggressive alt hiding bs


Mollie, calm down. This is a game where scum aren't going to bus unless forced to. RC and Pisskop are scum that need to be lynched by town unity. I don't know who the other scum is/are. Yelling at people and saying they are pieces of work will not be effective.

Let me guide these lynches. I trust you. Let me do this.

In post 5436, Titus wrote:Hey Dwelee, I wanna make a bet with you. You vote RC. She flips red. You unquestioningly give me your vote until I am wrong. If I die, you give your vote to Mollie until she's wrong.

If RC flips green, you get my vote until you're wrong or you make me follow one townread of your choice if you're the nightkill.

Sole condition: no requiring self voting.

I am that confident I am right and that RC is scum. I want this day over no no 6000 posts.

posts like this would make sense as a RC partner; she made a serious effort to work with people to line up the pisskop lynch for post-RC flip.
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Post Post #6416 (isolation #24) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:56 am

Post by pieguyn »

In post 971, davesaz wrote:davesaz, Keyser Söze, Aeronaut, Nosferatu
JarJarDrinks, Dwlee99, Fro99er,
Nero Cain, Zulfy, Frozen Angel, DeathNote,
RadiantCowbells, Wickedestjr,
pisskop, Wake88,
TheCow


Keyser and Nosferatu are strong enough town to me to call them obvious. Aero is the weakest of the strong / strongest of the weak.

TheCow is overtly avoiding doing anything. This is the scummiest behavior to me but I don't think it's the best lynch because we would only have the VCA to go on.
Wake is avoiding the thread. I've seen him do this as scum in a game. I have not looked to see if it's site wide or just this game. Yes, that would be a good thing to check.

Pisskop had a little burst of activity and faded when it didn't yield anything. I have never seen him fail to attack something as town. It might not be a good attack and I usually scumread him for it, but it's consistent. The fact he's not doing anything speaks even louder than not doing anything that I would see as scummy.

VOTE: pisskop

I don't wanna go too far into "outguess the scum" territory, but davesaz seemed very careful with most of his interactions this game. if Wake-slot was scum, would he have made sure to put an explanation for the scum read he listed which was correct? gut says yes, head says I shouldn't read into it.
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Post Post #6417 (isolation #25) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:17 am

Post by pieguyn »

Spoiler: DWLEE WAGON
In post 1071, RadiantCowbells wrote:I mean I don't like Dwlee very much but I can't imagine Daves being town here.

VOTECOUNT P43 wrote:davesaz (7) - Wickedestjr, Nosferatu, RadiantCowbells, Fro99er, pisskop, Dwlee99, Keyser Söze
Dwlee99 (3) - Wake88, Aeronaut, JarJarDrinks
TheCow (1) - Frozen Angel
Frozen Angel (1) - Nero Cain
Nosferatu (1) - TheCow
pisskop (1) - davesaz

Not voting (2) - DeathNote, Zulfy

(expired on 2016-01-08 23:59:59)

16 players alive, 9 votes to lynch

VOTECOUNT P44 wrote:davesaz (6) - Wickedestjr, Nosferatu, RadiantCowbells, pisskop, Dwlee99, Keyser Söze
Dwlee99 (4) - Wake88, Aeronaut, JarJarDrinks, Fro99er
TheCow (1) - Frozen Angel
Frozen Angel (1) - Nero Cain
Nosferatu (1) - TheCow
pisskop (1) - davesaz

Not voting (2) - DeathNote, Zulfy

(expired on 2016-01-08 23:59:59)

16 players alive, 9 votes to lynch

In post 1079, RadiantCowbells wrote:Can we maybe lynch Daves first?

VOTECOUNT P47 wrote:davesaz (7) - Wickedestjr, Nosferatu, RadiantCowbells, pisskop, Dwlee99, Keyser Söze, Fro99er
Dwlee99 (3) - Wake88, Aeronaut, JarJarDrinks
TheCow (1) - Frozen Angel
Frozen Angel (1) - Nero Cain
Nosferatu (1) - TheCow
pisskop (1) - davesaz

Not voting (2) - DeathNote, Zulfy

(expired on 2016-01-08 23:59:59)

16 players alive, 9 votes to lynch

VOTECOUNT P49 wrote:davesaz (8) - Wickedestjr, Nosferatu, RadiantCowbells, pisskop, Dwlee99, Keyser Söze, Fro99er, Aeronaut
Dwlee99 (2) - Wake88, JarJarDrinks
TheCow (1) - Frozen Angel
Frozen Angel (1) - Nero Cain
Nosferatu (1) - TheCow
pisskop (1) - davesaz

Not voting (2) - DeathNote, Zulfy

(expired on 2016-01-08 23:59:59)

16 players alive, 9 votes to lynch

VOTECOUNT P53 (FINAL) wrote:davesaz (9) - Wickedestjr, Nosferatu, RadiantCowbells, pisskop, Dwlee99, Keyser Söze, Fro99er, Aeronaut, Frozen Angel
Dwlee99 (2) - Wake88, JarJarDrinks
Frozen Angel (1) - Nero Cain
Nosferatu (1) - TheCow
pisskop (1) - davesaz

Not voting (2) - DeathNote, Zulfy

(expired on 2016-01-08 23:59:59)

16 players alive, 9 votes to lynch
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Post Post #6418 (isolation #26) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:21 am

Post by pieguyn »

JJD's push on dwlee seems perfectly fine, tbh. and I went and specifically counted all those votes in between AP's votecounts, too -.-
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Post Post #6419 (isolation #27) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:30 am

Post by pieguyn »

In post 1846, JarJarDrinks wrote:
In post 1835, RadiantCowbells wrote:FA, the only reason I wasn't pushing you since a hell of a lot sooner is that I'd rather continue to play this game with you in it than without.
wait, what?

In post 1854, JarJarDrinks wrote:
In post 1847, RadiantCowbells wrote:
In post 1846, JarJarDrinks wrote:
In post 1835, RadiantCowbells wrote:FA, the only reason I wasn't pushing you since a hell of a lot sooner is that I'd rather continue to play this game with you in it than without.
wait, what?


Not sure what you want explained.

In post 937, JarJarDrinks wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 429, RadiantCowbells wrote:
In post 411, pisskop wrote:RC, tell me again how this was town frozen.


Yeah, so you've just proven by asking that question that you don't understand her meta at all.

Her AtEs as scum frozen are absolutely terrible and see through and basically ignorable and she avoids pressure by bogging everything down in lengthy arguments and focuses on defending herself hyper logically while spending more time throwing out accusations than doing any sort of analysis.

She's town here, 100%.
In post 431, RadiantCowbells wrote:FA can't ate this effectively as scum.

That's the end of the discussion, basically.
In post 434, RadiantCowbells wrote:Try reading the Netherspite mafia in Coney Island where she flipped out exactly like this when I pressured her.
In post 437, RadiantCowbells wrote:No, the one with Netherspite as the mod.

Textbook FA town.
In post 440, RadiantCowbells wrote:Well, that's your prerogative.

I'm positive she's town right now though.
In post 442, RadiantCowbells wrote:I've played more games with FA than anyone else on site and have yet to misread her.

Keep that in mind.
In post 443, RadiantCowbells wrote:I've also actually been scumpartners with her, so I know how she operates as scum.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=64156

Does this look like her scum game at all?
In post 444, RadiantCowbells wrote:Scum FA is very rigorous and gets really invested into the logical side of things, somewhat similar to my own scum game in that she tries to leave a trail for all the shit she does but she basically doesn't AtE, at all.

As town she's really AtEy and it's hard to follow her cases as a logical sequence. This is absolutely the latter.
In post 445, RadiantCowbells wrote:She did AtE like once in 37 but it was one of her scummiest lines of the game because of how poorly done it was.

I can't see her pulling off this rage thing effectively as scum at all, not against me who is particularly good at seeing through fake rage. (See: making the AFB scum team forfeit in 167 with my fake cop claim on scum)



some highlights:
In post 429, RadiantCowbells wrote:She's town here, 100%.
In post 431, RadiantCowbells wrote:FA can't ate this effectively as scum.
In post 437, RadiantCowbells wrote:Textbook FA town.
In post 440, RadiantCowbells wrote:I'm positive she's town right now though.


It doesn't sound like the only reason you didn't push her sooner is cause you liked having her in the game. It sounds like the reason you didn't push her is because you had the mother of all townreads on her.

this is exactly correct. in fact, it is a large part of the reason I got FA-slot town off of RC's ISO (he hard buddied her, for reasoning which was probably 100% genuine -> FA town, and 180'ed his read opportunistically).

if it was followed through with a significant push, which unfortunately it wasn't (or followed up on at all), I would call it here and bank JJD as town. my paranoid self is more hesitant.
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Post Post #6420 (isolation #28) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:39 am

Post by pieguyn »

I wish I had a litmus test for how scum-RC would approach town vs. his remaining partner(s) pushing him on D3.
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Post Post #6421 (isolation #29) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:41 am

Post by pieguyn »

In post 5526, Nosferatu wrote:RC self-hammered. He had a teammate on his wagon.

now that I'm back on D3 I'm putting a mental note here that I intuitively agreed with this when I first saw it. should prob double check.
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Post Post #6422 (isolation #30) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:48 am

Post by pieguyn »

In post 5493, AngryPidgeon wrote:Vote Count 3.17 (FINAL)

RadiantCowbells ( :!: ) - Firebringer, DeathNote, JarJarDrinks, Titus, pirate mollie,
Nosferatu
,
RadiantCowbells

Keyser Söze
(1) -
Dwlee99

Titus (1) -
pisskop


Not voting (3) -
Wickedestjr
, Wake88,
Keyser Söze


(expired on 2016-01-22 11:59:59)

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Wake's position is noted. except I don't know if it means shit bc he had basically AFK'ed out of the game.
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Post Post #6423 (isolation #31) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 2:09 am

Post by pieguyn »

I thoroughly have no opinion of anything in JJD's ISO.

it reads town on a body-of-work level. but, my mind is filled with paranoid thoughts that RC was hard bussed, and that whoever scum is, rather than attempting to save her, wanted to cash it in for all the town cred it was worth (which is a style of play I will never understand and it makes it all the more terrifying - if I can save a partner, I'll save them). then my mind is filled with even more paranoid thoughts that whoever would have done it is obviously competent as scum, and would likely be able to play a scum game that looks town at first glance. with that, I'm entirely unable to bring myself to town read anyone in this game on the basis of lynching RC over anyone else D3.

nothing in here was actually specific to JJD. I should probably try again when I'm not awake at 6 AM. in the meantime, I'll approach this from the opposite side and look at how the flipped scum handled the remaining players.
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Post Post #6427 (isolation #32) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 11:48 am

Post by pieguyn »

In post 6424, Political Clout wrote:Why are you certain 3 scum?

it takes an absurd amount of town power to balance 12-4. 13-4 is the "standard" ratio for a 4-mafia game. if you intend on knocking off a town player, at that point, you need to balance it with a severe increase in power bc at that point town hardly has any breathing room (17p = 5 mislynches -> 16p = 4 mislynches with 4 scum if no kill is blocked).

right now we have

{rolecop, miller, JK, (BP), VTs}
vs
{cop, goon, ???} + neighbors

which is pretty awful in terms of power even if you ignore the fact cop is a false inno for the rolecop. none of these town roles do anything; the only one which is even somewhat useful is the JK. rolecop can clear the miller, BP can _maybe_ draw a kill if lucky (and this is assuming DN is actually town. if he winds up being SK, this role isn't even on the town side), and neighbors are null roles which in this case was mostly null utility given there was a scum neighbor.

tl;dr is i probably would not sign up for another AP game if his sense of balance led him to make a 12-4 setup with this (lack of) power
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Post Post #6428 (isolation #33) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 11:54 am

Post by pieguyn »

for reference, the 19p i ran was

{gunsmith, 2x vig, fruit vendor, masons x3, VTs}
vs
{doctor, goon, goon, goon}

the setup would have been fine if i had only used 2 masons instead of 3. these roles are collectively much more powerful than what we have here with a much more forgiving ratio (15-4 there, 12-4 here).
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Post Post #6429 (isolation #34) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:33 pm

Post by pieguyn »

i have to point out that the obvious explanation i can think of for DN's role is that it's just an SK role (SK neighbor + mafia neighbor + town neighbor would make sense. mafia neighbor + BP town neighbor + another neighbor feels completely random in terms of why make a town neighbor bulletproof, although not impossible - the obvious explanation especially given lolAP is he put it there as a deliberately awful-looking role). moreover, the series of posts starting from is at first glance what i'd expect SK who is no-killing would post if hoping to misdirect away from themselves.

the keyword there is "at first glance". i have actually seen an SK make blatantly obvious posts similar to that one before, except in that case his posts were not reasonable from a town POV. these posts at least are. so i'm not taking this as much of a tell.
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Post Post #6430 (isolation #35) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:36 pm

Post by pieguyn »

then there is the issue of if we lynch mafia today and the game is still going, who the SK actually is.

<- is horrible at SK hunting, so i have no fucking idea where to start.
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Post Post #6431 (isolation #36) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:38 pm

Post by pieguyn »

at the least, i want to say a hypothetical mafia-DN wouldn't have played D1 with davesaz the way he did. i'm also considering that perhaps davesaz outed the BP claim because his scum team didn't have daytalk and he wanted to relay that information to them somehow.
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Post Post #6432 (isolation #37) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:46 pm

Post by pieguyn »

i don't think the neighborhood distribution would be mafia neighbor + mafia neighbor + BP town neighbor. regardless of how i think about it, that just seems really inelegant from a design POV. i *could* see it being mafia neighbor + mafia neighbor + SK neighbor ("whee let's put a neighborhood with nothing but scum"). -.-

also,

In post 6429, pieguyn wrote:the obvious explanation especially given lolAP is he put it there as a deliberately awful-looking role)

if i'm playing "outguess AP", i would actually bet on this being more likely than SK neighbor. obviously not really something i'm going to factor into my reads, but it is something i am noting
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Post Post #6433 (isolation #38) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 3:23 pm

Post by pieguyn »

depending on what AP would do, i could *maybe* see this being 12-3.5 if DN is town.
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Post Post #6434 (isolation #39) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 3:27 pm

Post by pieguyn »

Subject: Micro 152 - BSG Mafia (Galactica Survives?)

AngryPidgeon wrote:
Nero
, Gaius Baltar and
Town Miller Neighbor
who went missing on Night 1.

noted.
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Post Post #6435 (isolation #40) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 3:39 pm

Post by pieguyn »

In post 6433, pieguyn wrote:depending on what AP would do, i could *maybe* see this being 12-3.5 if DN is town.

if this is the case, then the traitor would appear as a guilty for the rolecop, and that would give the mafia cop a purpose besides being a false inno.

hm
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Post Post #6436 (isolation #41) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 3:42 pm

Post by pieguyn »

I am going to accept this as my working theory for the time being, if anyone disagrees let me know and why. it seems a lot more reasonable than an SK who decided to no-kill every night.
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Post Post #6439 (isolation #42) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 5:31 pm

Post by pieguyn »

kinda wanna just lynch GR and see where that takes us.

more in a few hours
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Post Post #6443 (isolation #43) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 11:25 pm

Post by pieguyn »

ftr i think i have a good enough idea of where things stand where i'd feel comfortable going ahead with the lynch and evaluating further tomorrow. not to mention, *if* the 4th scum is a traitor (i'm not taking this for granted although i have a lot of trouble seeing how this setup is balanced otherwise), and Fire's result is accurate (which it definitely should be), the game is over immediately.

i feel pretty much OK with a town (not-mafia) bloc of {Fire, PC, DN} based on what i have seen - JJD could be in here too but i wouldn't bet the game on it
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Post Post #6444 (isolation #44) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 11:28 pm

Post by pieguyn »

regardless of when we lynch, Fire should publicly claim his JK target for the next night. that way, if it's a scum flip, scum confirms someone as town if a kill goes through.

if it's a town flip, whether it would apply depends on if we think there are 4 scum in the main group or 3 (i.e. 3 main group + traitor or 3 main group + SK).
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Post Post #6446 (isolation #45) » Sun Feb 14, 2016 11:59 pm

Post by pieguyn »

is there any specific reason you would be a viable NK target? not facetious, i'm asking because i haven't read D5 or D4 in much depth.
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Post Post #6452 (isolation #46) » Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:59 pm

Post by pieguyn »

i think there's about a 0% GR was shot. no offense to GR but i don't think he'd get killed over for instance JJD (or PC-slot if mollie's slot was town read as hard as i'm town reading it).

i don't think you would be shot either unless it is 3 mafia, since 4 mafia or 3 mafia/traitor would imply no SK in the setup. AKA i'm pretty sure Fire's result is a guilty.
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Post Post #6454 (isolation #47) » Tue Feb 16, 2016 12:15 am

Post by pieguyn »

{rolecop, miller, BP} only vs. 3.5 scum is scum sided as shit, so that's impossible. that also ignores the fact no killing and mislynching you would literally be the same position for him as ... not even bothering and just choosing to kill someone in the first place.
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Post Post #6455 (isolation #48) » Tue Feb 16, 2016 12:17 am

Post by pieguyn »

the only way this isn't a guilty somehow is if you were shot. Fire isn't scum and scum wouldn't shoot DN.

i don't believe you would be shot here
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Post Post #6463 (isolation #49) » Tue Feb 16, 2016 11:07 am

Post by pieguyn »

In post 6459, Political Clout wrote:Can we discuss errant as a possible lynch as well? I dislike how limiting we're being here.

we can discuss it, but you'd have to have a compelling explanation for why Fire's result isn't a guilty if you wanna lynch outside of GR in the end
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Post Post #6467 (isolation #50) » Wed Feb 17, 2016 5:27 pm

Post by pieguyn »

vote: Golden Robster (L-1).
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Post Post #6475 (isolation #51) » Thu Feb 18, 2016 7:20 am

Post by pieguyn »

fire needs to announce his JK target first
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Post Post #6478 (isolation #52) » Thu Feb 18, 2016 9:10 am

Post by pieguyn »

i feel pretty sure GR is scum here even outside of Fire. i cannot emphasize enough how ass Zulfy's RC interactions were. his posts outside of that were meh at best, and i'm thoroughly meh on GR's posts, so i think he has a fairly above-average chance of being scum via POE regardless.

the only thing even remotely making me think it could be town is Zulfy's replace out
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Post Post #6479 (isolation #53) » Thu Feb 18, 2016 9:11 am

Post by pieguyn »

EBWOP: k, i'm fine with ending day here
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Post Post #6484 (isolation #54) » Fri Feb 19, 2016 12:20 am

Post by pieguyn »

my issue with the Zulfy interactions is more that his read on RC looked really really strained - i think he was going for a distancing play there and not realizing just how forced it was coming across.

posts like , for instance, just read like he was coming up with bullshit for the sake of looking like he had more material to push RC with, cos there was, and is, no logical reason for it. there was nothing RC said that could have seriously been interpreted as a "scum slip" without severe mental gymnastics. and then, after he mentioned it, he didn't even remotely push it in a way i would expect from town who thought they found a slip. he should have been all over people getting them to see what they was seeing if he actually found a slip, he didn't even so much as _explain_ it. there are a lot more like this that i found in my original pass of the game which i laid out in a previous post.
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Post Post #6495 (isolation #55) » Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:58 am

Post by pieguyn »

golden robster posting online and not checking in here makes me feel optimistic it was a scum lynch
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Post Post #6496 (isolation #56) » Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:59 am

Post by pieguyn »

now we just need to wait for mod
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Post Post #6498 (isolation #57) » Sun Feb 21, 2016 1:07 am

Post by pieguyn »

i'm still awake at 5 AM for some ungodly reason. i need to sleep :P
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Post Post #6500 (isolation #58) » Sun Feb 21, 2016 1:10 am

Post by pieguyn »

In post 6499, Firebringer wrote:Arizona and its damn "We don't like Daylight savings"

Its only 4 am in the rest of the PST!

that's not much better :<
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Post Post #6509 (isolation #59) » Sun Feb 21, 2016 7:50 am

Post by pieguyn »

yay ~

thanks Fire!
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Post Post #6532 (isolation #60) » Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:47 am

Post by pieguyn »

i had fun this game. i look forward to playing with you all again, or at least the people who were there when i was in the game :) (i can't speak for how that early game went...)

i think recently i prefer replacing into games over playing them due to games like this - what i consider myself best at, and what i like doing most, is analytics and i usually don't get to do this kind of analysis early in the game, especially when it's as chaotic/vitriolic as this one was. solving a 200 page puzzle without having to think about anything else was oddly relaxing.
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Post Post #6539 (isolation #61) » Mon Feb 22, 2016 7:08 am

Post by pieguyn »

In post 6536, RadiantCowbells wrote:Would rather scum topic not be released, but I want access again.

Sorry guys.

i wanna see it. :<

/stared directly into RC's eyes
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Post Post #6547 (isolation #62) » Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:28 am

Post by pieguyn »

fire ... guiltied scum by ... blocking their kill on the traitor?

ROFL

also even without the result i probably woulda lynched GR's slot irrespective of who was in it or anything GR himself actually did (unless he looked really, really town somehow). too many of the other slots were town as shit, to the point where the only other thing it could have been was some very mild paranoia on JJD.
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Post Post #6549 (isolation #63) » Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:34 am

Post by pieguyn »

In post 378, RadiantCowbells wrote:I do a bunch of different stuff.

You should see the game where I played with FA on my scumteam in normal 1737 where we were messing around with each other in thread and hard buddied each other the entire game. Followed each other onto every single wagon of the entire game. At LyLo we were considered the two mostly confirmed towns and all the other towns were arguing about why we should lynch the other two.

i hope we draw scum together one day.

:good:

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