Mafia 64: The New "C9" - Game over!

[Yosarian2]

Yup, I'm here. Hey, I finally get to play a game with AutumnEvenings, awesome.

[Yosarian2]

Like I usually do, rather then trying to take copius notes and figure it all out at once, I'm going to respond to stuff as I see it during my re-read.

Was that randomized or were the night actions in ?

Damnit, some of the 2 best players are out...cunning mafia.

Question: This may or may not be relevent to anything, but have you played with either Jdodge or SV or both before? Or if not, did you read through games with them in it?

[Yosarian2]

MBL seems to want to begin the often-fruitless process of "nightkill choice speculation." The only ones among us who could have any legitimate insight into the scums' kills would be the scums themselves. MBL is experienced enough to know by now that talking about N1 kills (especially in a night-start game) is rarely (if ever) useful.

I'd like MBL to answer BBB's question only because I'm curious myself to know why exactly MBL would label a spectrumvoid kill as "odd." But for the most part, I want to nip this "speculation on why so-and-so was killed" issue in the bud. Simply put, we will not be able to discern anything at all from who was killed. And any insinuations that X might be scum because Y died will without a doubt get a vote from me.

Don't really like this post here; with those specific night choices, I think there are very good reasons to try to use that to figure out who would have killed those specific people. I certanly don't see why you'd want to shut this down as an avenue of speculation this early on day 1.

[Yosarian2]

You're kidding, right? You mean you think that Guardian actually believes that I am the perfect mafia player and that I know all of the scums' identities without everyone even having posted yet? You think that language like "I demanded that he find all five scum" and "Tsk tsk Glork" is "far from a joke"?




Please stop talking, BM. You're just making yourself look like a fool.

fos:Glork

. Battle mage is actually making some sense here; I don't like how Glork just shuts him down and tells him to "stop talking".

[Yosarian2]

well im not the ideal judge of my own scumminess. of course, me being hard to read is only bad for me as town. as scum, i can get away with murder

heh...you know, that's almost a reason to lynch you right there.

Seriously, though, I'm not really seeing the BM wagon at this time.

We hashed this over in the thread I posted. I've come to the conclusion that I'm going to more or less ignore his behavior unless he 1) brings up a good point or 2) acts more unusually than usual.

...which dosn't mean we just ignore BM either, I just saw a town lose a game by ignoring him when he was scum because he's "always scummy". I'd suggest people actually, you know, read his posts and try to figure out if he's scum, perhaps put together a case against him or something if you've got a problem with him? BM does play differently when scum then when town, everyone does; but I don't like how this BM wagon seems to be just gliding along on autopilot with very little reference to any specific thing he's actually done so far this game.

[Yosarian2]

But if Albert thought they were "two of the best," that would certainly give him incentive to kill one of them.

This is exactly what you were attacking MBL for.

Vote:Glork

No. I was attacking MBL for calling the SV kill "odd."
...and I kept it there for his refusing to explain why he thought it was odd.

No, Jack is right. You also attacked MBL for talking about the night 1 kills at all; saying that

MBL seems to want to begin the often-fruitless process of "nightkill choice speculation." The only ones among us who could have any legitimate insight into the scums' kills would be the scums themselves. MBL is experienced enough to know by now that talking about N1 kills (especially in a night-start game) is rarely (if ever) useful.

Jack's hardly "strawmanning" you here, Glork, he's pointing out that you've contradicted yourself.

[Yosarian2]

Hmm...

I claim vanilla townie

Obligatory

fos

for that

[Yosarian2]

Ok...general summery...

I don't trust Albert or Glork at this point. Glork, especally, is rubbing me the wrong way. A lot of his posts don't feel right to me right now.

vote:Glork

Yogurt has made a few unusual posts. Not sure what to think of him at this point.

[Yosarian2]

Glork: I don't know, I think Battle Mage's point was reasonable.

i agree with Haut Boy. ive seen this happen before in other games, and Glork-scum is allowed free reign to do as he pleases till about day 4 or 5.
in future, dont class 'Glork must be right' as a reason to vote for somebody. such blind following is worthy of my vote.
BM

He was saying that it's dangerous to just follow Glork, and that he's seen the town do so often. And yes, Guardian was half-joking, but I think he was he was "joking on the square"; I honestly think that he was more then half-serious about being willing to follow your lead, and I think BM was just pointing out that that's dangerous.

And he also said that he ould vote for anyone who voted following you, and who gave as his only reason "Glork must be right". Which is again quite reasonable, IMHO. Even if you're town, that can be dangerous.

The impression I got was just that he was mostly trying to prevent people from using "let's all follow glork" as an excuse for their votes, the way people have done in other games.

The fact that in response you tried to shut him down completly, told him to stop talking and called him a fool, really bothers me.

[Yosarian2]

I agree that blindly following Glork -- regardless of what his alignment is -- is not generally a good thing. I experienced an unusually high amount of that in McDonald's Mafia, and I actually

used Pink Princess' repeated Glork-support to catch her as scum in that game

. I agree with that point. But I maintain that Guardian was joking, and that BM's attack on him was over-the-top, to a scummy degree. I wasn't trying to shut down the "following Glork is bad" notion. I was trying to shut down what I thought was becoming a distracting and possibly-pointless debate.

Meh. BM told him that he didn't like the whole "let's all follow Glork' thing; yes, it was a joke, but I think he was also serious. Guardian ignored him and continued to go on in the same vain, so BM voted for him. He even said:

I seriously wish you were joking, but unfortunately i dont think you were.

I don't think that was an "over-the-top" reaction, esepcally not page 2 of day 1. Your reaction to his vote, though, that seemed over the top to me.

[Yosarian2]

Why was everyone getting so excited about playing with AutumnEvenings ?

*points to her avatar*

Duh

.

I was going to say "because we know her from scumchat but haven't had a chance to play a forum game with her yet", but that answer works too.

Guardian: Could you explain in a little more detail why you think BM's scum? The reason you just gave, that "he votes for me whenever i unvote him" sounds kind of OMGUSy.

[Yosarian2]

TCS, it isn't me being OMGUSy, it is BM not making any sense at all. I unvote him, acknowledge that he may not be scum, do independent analysis and look for more scum targets.... And then he finds me as scum for it. I would be equally frustrated if he did this to any other player in my situation.

So...you expected him to trust you more now that you were calling him town, and you were annoyed with him for voting for you after you called him town?

fos:Guardian

[Yosarian2]

Yos, I feel like you and others are straw-manning me here... I am annoyed with him for voting me for scum hunting. Like I said, if he did this to any other player who did the same things I did, I would be equally frustrated with him.

That's not why he voted you. Now you're representing him. He actually had a reasonable point about you, I think, which you never defended yourself against, just voting him instead.

He voted you after this post:

Meh, I believe BM. I don't particularly think either of the two wagons are scum. BM was just being an idiot.

unvote

Meh... he could be scum though... I echo the sentiments of TCS here. I could definitely be convinced to get back on BM. At the moment I shall

vote: N9V

because he made one post with a vote and used someone else's reasoning for it... and got on near the end of a lynch-an-easy-target wagon.

One more day of hiking, adios!

When asked why he was voting you, he said this:

his comment about me seems like scum keeping their options open.

So, he wasn't voting for you "Because you were scum-hunting". He thought your "Well, I don't really think he's scum, so I'll unvote him, but eh, he could be scum, I might get back on his bandwagon later" comment "seems like scum keeping their options open." Which is actually quite reasonable; you said you believed him and thought he wasn't scummy and unvoted him, and then in your very same post you said that he could be scum and that you "could be convinced" to get back onto the BM wagon.

And yeah, BM is right, that does kind of sound like you might be scum who's trying to keep your options open; you got off his bandwagon when everyone else was leaving it, but then kept open the option of jumping back on it.

So the way I see it, BM voted for you and gave a valid reason for it, and in response, rather then respond to his argument or make an attempt to defend yourself, you voted him.

[Yosarian2]

Yogurt: Did you actually read my posts? I don't think BM voted Guardian "because Guardian thought BM was town". He never said that's why he was voting Guardian, and actually had some good reasons for his vote. It's not like that was the first time BM's attacked Guardian today either, I think Battle Mage has suspected Guardian for a while.

In any case, you should NEVER trust someone just BECAUSE they're saying you're town; I wouldn't expect BM to AVOID voting Guardian just because Guardian unvoted him.

[Yosarian2]

Speaking of Albert, I would still like him to answer the question I asked him a few pages ago...

Like I usually do, rather then trying to take copius notes and figure it all out at once, I'm going to respond to stuff as I see it during my re-read.

Was that randomized or were the night actions in ?

Damnit, some of the 2 best players are out...cunning mafia.

Question: This may or may not be relevent to anything, but have you played with either Jdodge or SV or both before? Or if not, did you read through games with them in it?

[Yosarian2]

Nope, no particular reason.

...so, you're on the biggest bandwagon in the game, and are pushing for it to get more votes and go to a lynch, but you don't have any actual reason for suspecting Guardian?

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, I like Jack's play so far. I've agreed with most things he's said, and he's been active and willing to take some risks, which is bascially the opposite of how he acted last time I saw him play when he was scum in MAD.

[Yosarian2]

Heh...I agreed with basically everything you said in post 406 , Glork, and that makes me feel a little bit better about you, but you're still on my list of suspects; I really got a bad gut feeling from a lot of your posts earlier in the game. I'll probably re-read your posts in isolation tommorow and see if I can explain it better.

[Yosarian2]

Anyone else notice a contradiction here?

You not being able to read me is a good thing for me whatever my alignment is. You are suspicious of me enough that I likely won't get NK'd but are not suspicious of me enough so that I will get lynched today. I used to think it was in everyone's best interests to look really, really pro-town all the time... but MeMe has begun to convince me otherwise in another thread. So go ahead, and not be able to read me. That's great for my team (the town).

OK, so first, you propose a metagame lynch on BattleMage because you are incredibly frustrated about how he acts unreadable, and second, you say that, just like BattleMage, you act deliberately scummy so that people can't get a read on you. This is more than a little scummy hypocrisy.

First, he tries to say "Oh, it's good that you can't tell if I'm town or not, because that way I don't get night killed". Then in his very next post, he attacks Tcs for what apperas to be basically following that exact same logic.

I hate that logic, by the way. If you're town, then it's in the best interests of the town for the town to be able to tell you're town. "If I look scummy then I won't get nightkilled" is terrible, terrible logic; unless a pro-town role gets lucky, or unless the town gets really lucky and the mafia kills the SK, the mafia will kill one pro-town person every day. Period. If you're town, intentionally trying to look scummy and/or be unreadable so you don't get nightkilled dosn't help the town if it just means that some other pro-town player gets killed. If you look scummy and you don't get nightkilled that just lowers the odds of the town lynching sucessfully later on because you're still alive and people still remember you looking scummy.

I also don't like the way Guardian's just stating for a fact that he's not going to get lynched, dispite the fact he been the biggest wagon and that many people are suspicious of him.

I'm not really sure what to think about Guardian in general; some of his play might just be because he's played a lot more scumchat then forum mafia, which encourages a kind of fast-and-loose play, but even taking that into account he's still done several things that look like legitimate scumtells.

[Yosarian2]

Albert: The point is that the town does not want pro-town people to claim. The more power roles get outed, the easier it is for the scum to win. So if you're pressuring someone to claim, and you don't actually think they're scummy, you're hurting the town and helping the scum, which obv. makes you look more suspicious.

[Yosarian2]

Also, I find it amusing/ironic that you insinuated that I'm "terrible." Clearly, that mafia-hunting award shows that I have no idea what I'm talking about.

Clearly.

But Glork, why would who I think is scummy matter, when there are more experienced players who can more easily find the scum ?

Why should who you think is scummy matter?

If you're pro-town, then it's your job to figure out for yourself who the scum are. You certanly can't just trust someone else's judgement. Not only that, but the fact you're just following and bandwagoning without doing any of your own anlysis makes you look scummy, because that's a good way for scum to get townies lynched and not be noticed.

unvote:Glork

vote:Albert

[Yosarian2]

Well, from Albert's perspective, the answer would be that if he's town he should say his own thoughts so that we can figure out he's town; if he's scum, he might avoid posting his own thoughts so we can't figure out he's scum and so he can avoid giving hints about his scum partners.

ANd yeah, I could see a possible Albert-Glork connection here. Then again, I could see connections between any of my top 3-4 suspects and I'm sure they're not all scum together.

[Yosarian2]

Perhaps because he was trying to give him incentive to post, as opposed to incentive to lurk and/or not contribute?

That's the point, though; if Albert is scum, he might want to lurker so as to not give himself away, but if he's town that argument dosn't make sense.

[Yosarian2]

Well, from Albert's perspective, the answer would be that if he's town he should say his own thoughts so that we can figure out he's town; if he's scum, he might avoid posting his own thoughts so we can't figure out he's scum and so he can avoid giving hints about his scum partners.

ANd yeah, I could see a possible Albert-Glork connection here. Then again, I could see connections between any of my top 3-4 suspects and I'm sure they're not all scum together.

Who are your top 3-4 suspects?

Albert, Guardian, Glork, and perhaps you. I've noticed so many different possible links between all of you that I'm just confused now.

[Yosarian2]

Huh. Could you explain those links Yos? My interest has been piqued.

Well, let me just mention a few of them, since you ask:

First, Glork attacked MBL for "night choice speculation", and then contradicted himself later. Notable because, in this case, night choice speculation seems to make Albert look bad, because of that odd early post Albert made on the subject.

Glork defended Guardian pretty hardcore early in the game.

Some interesting interactions between Glork and Albert; specifically, Glork FOS's him, jumps on and then quickly off Albert bandwagon, ect.

Guardian says Yogurt "looks pro-town".

Yogurt defended Guardian, with a wierd post that semi-attacks me for the way I attacked Guardian

Wierd two-way back and fourth conversation between Albert and Yogurt

And some other things I can't remember offhand. Not sure what to make of all that, but it's stuff I'll keep in mind once I find out the alignment of soem of those people.

[Yosarian2]

Perhaps because he was trying to give him incentive to post, as opposed to incentive to lurk and/or not contribute?

That's the point, though; if Albert is scum, he might want to lurker so as to not give himself away, but if he's town that argument dosn't make sense.

Well yes, but you don't say to scum "you should do X so we can catch you." You try to make them do X in other ways.

heh...I tend to go with the more direct method, namely "Do X so we can figure out if you're scum, or else if you don't do X I'll just assume you're scum and lynch you anyway because X is a pro-town thing to do."

[Yosarian2]

Not quite. It's easier to catch scum if they have to pretend to actually scumhunt, it makes it a lot easier for them to make a mistake and so on, wheras on the other hand if a townie is scumhunting it tends to help the town.

So basically, if Albert is town, I want to pressure him to scumhunt rather then to just follow Glork, because that's better for the town. And if Albert is scum I want to either pressure him to scumhunt so he's more likely to make a mistake and get caught or give away his scumbuddies, or else if he's scum I wouldn't mind just lynching him for not scumhunting.

[Yosarian2]

I'll try to post something before monday.

(nods) Ok, I'll hold you to that. And when you do, please let us know who you think is scummy.

[Yosarian2]

MOS: Why random vote when replacciin a 24 page game before reading the game? Weren't you worried you might accidently randomally lynch someone?

[Yosarian2]

Edit by way of post

[Yosarian2]

Boy, you guys are trying to get your post counts up, aren't you

[Yosarian2]

MOS: What, exactally, has BM done that's been "more dense then usual" or that was based on bad logic? Be specific, please.

And also, which of BM's votes are you saying were OMGUS votes? The only one of BM's votes that could fairly be discribed as OMGUS was BM's vote against Yogurt, and if someone attacked me with this kind of stuff I'd probably vote them back myself:

As much as I'd like to think BM is scum,I'd rather not vote him..

He could always be Serial Killer,and He did suggest who to kill after he was dead.. But then again, who could tell?

Not enough evidence to vote, but...

FoS:Battle Mage

Followed a few hours later by:

unvote, vote:Battle Mage

Might as well get it over with today.

You are right, and after reading his scumtell,

Vote:Battle Mage

Might as well join on the Wagon

Just a really scummy looking couple of posts, IMHO.

So, sure, I'm defending BM. Much of what he's said and done this game has actually made a a fair amount of sense to me when read in context, and it seems like everyone is just assuming he's making no sense either becasue they assume he's a bad player or because he's got bad grammer or something. I don't know exactally what it is, but it's quite bad for the town, and probably provides cover for scum as well.

So, if there's something spcific abouit BM's play that you find scummy, say so. But just making vauge comments like "Oh, BM's being more dense then usual" without any actual examples is just incredibly unhelpful, and scummy as well.

[Yosarian2]

Albert: It's not cool to ask for replacement just because you can't find any scum. You're in the game, play it; if you don't re-read the thread, your replacement would have to anyway.

[Yosarian2]

Albert: It's not cool to ask for replacement just because you can't find any scum. You're in the game, play it; if you don't re-read the thread, your replacement would have to anyway.

A more experienced player, savvier with the playstyles of each person would likely help the town in ways I cannot, and see thing that I do not see.

That dosn't matter. If you're here to play mafia, then play mafia. Replacements are for when your computer dies and your house burns down and you can't get online for a while, not for when a game gets hard. If you get lynched, you get lynched and try to do better next time; it's just a game.

Trying to get replaced in the hopes that your replacement might be able to help your side better is not fair to your replacement, and dosn't help your side anyway, as your replacement would then be in the difficult position of trying to defend things you did. Just read the thread, see if anything looks scummy to you, and do your best.

[Yosarian2]

Billy: Lurker hunting is a pro-town thing to do. Prods and replacements can help, but when it comes down to it, if a person wants to activly lurk and just occasioanly post in unhelpful ways, the only way to deal with is is votes and pressure. Besides, when possible, it's better to deal with lurkers through votes and pressure anyway; the reaction to someone who comes back from lurking because of a lurkerwagon on him is much more informative then the reaction of someone who comes back from lurking because of a mod prod.

[Yosarian2]

Billy: If you want to see why lurker hunting is pro-town, go take a look at MAD mafia to see what happens to towns that don't lurker hunt. If you refuse to lynch lurkers, then the scum will post just barely enough to not get replaced, and then they will win.

Letting people get away with lurking hurts the town. Sure, sometimes scum lurker hunt in order to avoid getting into fights with active players, but that argument pretty clearly dosn't apply here as AE has also been going after active players as well.

And I do think is scummy is for you to lurk, to show up and start posting right after AE attacks and votes you for lurking, and then to say that lurker hunting is "scummy" in response to that. The fact that you posted right after AE is a perfect example of how lurker hunting can make lurkers post and is therefore a good thing for the town.

[Yosarian2]

You will never, ever convince me that scum are more likely to lurk than town. If that is the case then lurker hunting is a bad scum hunting tactic.

There are mainly two reasons that people lurk:
1.) They get bored with the game. It's just as likely that this occurs as often with vanilla townie as it does with scum. In fact, I'd argue that its less likely for scum to lurk for this reason, as typically players are more excited and "into" a game when they are scum.

2.) RL issues cause problems with ability to post. Not any more likely to happen for scum than anyone else.

You forgot one:

3) Sometimes scum lurk, because the only thing scum really care about during the day is to not get lynched, and a person who's not really saying anything isn't giving off scumtells. If the town's not willing to lynch lurkers, then lurking is a smart move for the scum to do.

Yos, I agree, lurking can allow scum to hide. However, a town that permits lurker hunting allows

active

scum to attack players without discretion. In fact, a town that participates in lurker hunting effectively picks the scum's target for them and makes their job easier.

Any good town has to do both, both go after lurkers and go after active players who look scummy. It's not an either-or choice; they both need to be done.

AE and YoS, I think your real problem against lurking is that it makes the game boring and slow for you, and your right in that. But lurking IS NOT a scumtell.

That's only a small part of it. Lurking lowers the town's chances of winning, no matter if the lurking player is pro-town or scum, and I still do think that lurking is at least a minor scumtell; sure, anyone could lurk for whatever reason, but from a stratigic point of view there's always more reason for scum to lurk then for town to lurk, so if someone's lurking, and especally if they seem to be activly and intentionally lurking, I consider them more likely to be scum then someone's who's being active, and so all else being equal, I'm always more likely to vote for someone who is, was, or has been lurking.

And in any case, if pro-town people lurk, or semi-lurk, they tend to either not vote much at all, or if they do vote, they tend to just follow the crowd; either way, every pro-town lurker makes it that much easier for scum to control the game. So either way, lurking is bad for the town and the town can never afford to allow it.

[Yosarian2]

With less sarcasm, though, just because getting lurkers to participate helps the town doesn't make it a protown action. Lurker hunting is one of those actions that scum use to look protown without having to hurt their chances of winning too much.

Yes, sometimes scum do pro-town actions like lurker hunting to make themselves look pro-town. That dosn't make lurker hunting any less of a pro-town action, and it means that attacking someone just because they're lurker hunting, the way both Billy and Andrew are doing, is incredibly counter-productive. And every time Billy or Andrew try to tell people that lurekr hunting is bad, lurking becomes something people are that much more likely to do.

[Yosarian2]

Emphasis mine. What makes lurker hunting less of a pro town action is that lurking ISN'T A SCUMTELL.

You can say that as often as you want, Billy, it dosn't make it true. I never said lurking was a strong scum tell, but scum do have more motivation then town to lurk, so it is at least a weak scum tell. You just repeating over and over again "LURKING IS NOT A SCUM TELL" is not going to convince anyone of anything.

And, like I've said, lurker hunting also helps the town by encouraging people to participate more, which helps us find the scum. Besides which, as games go on, they tend to get more and more lurky (even games that start out as active as this one) and I've seen way too many games where the town lose just because the game ground to a horribly painfull halt due to the number of lurkers and the low activity rate. I can link you to some if you want.

So that's three ways in which lurker hunting is a pro-town action; lurkers are more likely to be scum then active players, forcing people to generate real content (which a mod prod will never do, btw) helps us figure out their alignment, and making it clear that being less active then average is a dangerous thing to do helps keep everyone more active which helps the town's chances of winning in the long run. Pro-town people NEED TO POINT OUT WHEN PEOPLE ARE LURKING, and they NEED to put pressure on people to stop lurking. Mods replace people who stop posting completly, but those people aren't really "lurkers"; the traditional definition of lurkers are people who are around and watching but don't say much, and that is a scum tell, and the only way to prevent that is to lurkerhunt.

I kind of take offense to the way you word this as well. I didn't attack anyone for lurker hunting.

(shrug) You did call it a "scum tactic", which I would take as at least an indirect attack against the people doing it. By trying to undermine lurker hunting as a legitimate tactic, you make it much easier for people to get away with lurking, which is bad.

I pointed out that AE was doing it and put her down a point in my book because I don't like lurker hunting and think its a scum tactic, but I never called her scum for it, mostly because I realize that misguided town will lurker hunt as well as scum. I never attacked you over it either.

No, not directly. That was more aimed at Albert, who I already found suspicious and who is now attacking two people for doing something that I have always considered to be a postive pro-town action.

In fact, I didn't really want to get into this discussion anyway because it's more distraction than anything, thus my post #651, where I said we could talk about if if you really wanted to, but I wasn't going to push the issue at the time.

Perhaps you didn't really want to argue about it, but I can't just let a comment like that go, because if you say that and no one disagrees with you now it makes it easier for people to get away with lurking later. It's important for the town to establish as a whole early in the game that we will not tolerate lurking, with an actual threat tied to that.

Plus, I don't feel that this conversation encourages lurking. On your side, your willing to throw a few votes on a lurker. On my side, I'm willing to have the mod replace or otherwise deal with them. I don't think either of those threats "encourages" lurking.

Well, mod prods can't force people to provide real content though; usually, you see someone get a mod prod, then they show up say "Hey, I'm here, I'm still playing" and then go back to lurking. Or else they semi-lurk for days and thus avoid risk, and then start participating more late-game when scum can manipulate the town more safely and easily. Either way, it dosn't really do the job of the town which is to make people provide real content.

[Yosarian2]

First off, I am flabbergasted that you are calling me scummy for that post. It was not meant to present cases, and I made that perfectly clear. I rarely gave examples for my suspicions of anyone. All I did was copy and paste my notes that I took while reading it, so that you all could see that I had read the thread and was up to date.

(shrug) Well, all right. I just get annoyed by the way everyone's been doing that all game, just vaugely stating "BM's being dumb" and then not actually giving any good reasons, when in my opinion BM's making a lot of sense. It just dosn't seem to fit with what's actually been going on this game to me; I tend to think that at least some of the people who were pushing that point of view were scum looking for an easy target, and the reat were making it easy by just going along with it without even asking for any specific examples.

You are right, though, everything in your post was general. I was more stating that that vauge "BM is being dumb so let's just lynch him/ignore him" behavior, which I've seen from a lot of people, is unhelpful and scummy, then actually attacking you in specific becasue of that post. I didn't FOS you or anything because of it, it mostly just frustrated me.

BM made a mountain out of a molehill with the "Follow Glork" issue. Made a horrible assumption that not only was Guardian serious about following Glork, but that he was ALSO intending to set up Glork for a lynch tomorrow. Accuses BillyTwilight with throwing a "poorly thought out vote" at him, even though BT had a pretty good reason to vote him early in the game.

Eh...like I said, i think BM was making a rational point there; the way people blindly follow Glork can be bad for the town, and he didn't like it, not even said in a semi-joking fashion by Guardian. And when Guardian ignored him and continued along the same vain, Battle Mage voted him. Seemed like a fair enough reason for a vote to me on page 2 of day 1.

@Glork-you are making no sense. Guardian made a comment that you were good at catching scum. you say this is TRUE, yet you also say he was JOKING. Please can you make your mind up about what defence you are going for here?

This quote makes no sense at all. Glork said that Guardian was right that he was good at catching scum, but that he was joking about wanting to completely follow Glork in scumhunting. BM is just flailing around to try and turn other people's comments into something that he can treat with disdain.

Again, it sounds like BM is making sense here, to me anyway. While Guardian was overstating the case for humorous effect, he was probably quite serious about the underlying message, which was "Glork is a good scumhunter and following him is a good idea", and BM thought that attitude was dangerous for the town. If Guardian was being at least half serious, then BM's vote makes sense, at least considering how early in the game it was.

[Yosarian2]

EBWOP: Wow, that's ridiculous. Why the hell was he replaced?

Yeah, seems wierd, he was only gone for like 2 days.

[Yosarian2]

On D1, BM posted no relevant game posts for a week. That's sufficient cause for removal for me if the mod so chooses... if you know you've gotta afk for a week early in the game, don't sign up!

Plus...

now hurry up and kill me. i DO hate a dragged out demise...

combined with his self-hammer in another game recently makes him an excellent candidate for replacement on grounds of wrecking/unbalancing the game intentionally. The absence plus the irresponsibility == yay, replacement.

I tend to think BM was not playing "irresponsibly" here at all, in fact, his play in this game so far has been much better then how I've seen him play in the past. But whatever, I'm not going to second guess the mod in the middle of the game, we can talk about it after the game's over.

[Yosarian2]

I'm Watching You: Yosarian2

When was the last time you actually talked about the game instead of theory/replacements/lurking/etc.? It's getting somewhat old. I actually had a pretty pro-town read on you and I'll be annoyed if I have to change my mind since there are so damn few of y'all that don't seem scummy.

I think I've spent a lot of time discussing who I think is scummy and such. As for the last time I talked about the game, it was yesterday, when I argued with MOS and Billy and mentioned that I thought Albert's actions looked scummy.

I always and will always argue about game theory, I think disucssing what the town should do and such is very useful. And as I think I mentioned, Albert's posts yesterday seemed suspicious to me, where first when I said that lurking is bad he said he wanted to see Billy's response, and then when Billy responded he FOS'd me just because he wanted to agree with Billy's comments. Which is another reason discussing game theory is good; sometimes you can get scum tells off of people's responses to the discussion.

[Yosarian2]

She keeps bringing back the "Billy posted after I voted for him" argument, ignoring that he would have posted anyway.

...how would you know what Billy would have done if he hadn't been attacked?

Granted, we can't know for sure, but it's very, very common that lurkers of either alignment start posting more right after they get called out for lurking. They always claim "Oh, I would have posted anyway", but I usually don't believe them.

[Yosarian2]

Well he has addressed the issue already, and AE shouldn't continue with this WIFOM crap.

Yes, he "adressed the issue". He claimed that he would have posted anyway. I don't see why you would believe him, though, especally considering the timing:

Except for one brief "sorry I've been lurking this game" post, Billy didn't really say anything from May 31'st to June 9th, when he posted at 10:39 pm. On June 9'th, at 9:38 pm, AE attacked Billy for lurking.

So I find it bizzare that the conclusion you draw, when person A lurks for 10 days and then posts exactally 1 hour after someone else attackes him for lurking, is "well he would have posted anyway."

[Yosarian2]

Because there's no way to prove whether he would or would not, and since he said he would in a direct reply, we should just leave the matter alone.

So, if there's no way to 100% prove if someone is tellign the truth or not in a mafia game, you just assume they're telling the truth?

Besides, that's not really my point. My point is that this post:

I completely disagree with AE. She keeps bringing back the "Billy posted after I voted for him" argument, ignoring that he would have posted anyway. What is she trying to do ?

Unvote, vote: AE

Looks to me like you KNOW Billy's telling the truth, when there's no logical way you could possibly know that, unless you're scum and therefore know he's town.

[Yosarian2]

I didn't say he is town; what kind of thought process did you undergo ?

No, you said he was telling the truth. The only way I can think of where you would actually know that is if you knew he was town, you can usually assume he's telling the truth, because pro-town people generally don't lie. And the only way you could know if he was town at this point would be if you were scum, as we haven't had a night yet.

Or, alternatly, it's possible you could be trying to defend Billy because he's your scumbuddy, although I don't think that's as likely.

Either way, your post dosn't make sense from a pro-town perspective.

[Yosarian2]

Ok. Why do you believe him?

[Yosarian2]

So, you believe him because you think he's pro-town, without being able to explain why, and because of that you think it's scummy AE dosn't believe him? Isn't that kind of a circular argument?

[Yosarian2]

His post just didn't make any sense to me, Jack. He seems to be assuming things I can't see a pro-town person assuming, that's all.

[Yosarian2]

But mafia can't assume someone is town either. And I said I assumed people are town as town. Don't you?

Sometimes I think a person is town. But I would never go so far as to not only assume someone is town based on a gut feeling, and then to teat that gut feeling as it was a fact that everyone should know, and that anyone who dares to question anything that person does is therefore scum. That just dosn't make sense; AE had some rational concerns about Billy, and while Billy's not very high on my list of suspects right now, the "how dare you ask him that question when it's obveous he's telling the truth" reaction from Anthony just seems way, way off.

[Yosarian2]

Also, it's been nearly a week since you posted,

Yosarian2

. Given our discussion on lurking and such...well, suffice to say, I'd like to hear from you. In post #551 you said that Yogurt was "perhaps" one of your top suspects (along with Glork, Albert, and Guardian). What do you think of him now? Anything changed your mind about Glork or Albert?

Yeah, this game has been moving so fast I've not really been able to keep up, espeaclly as every time I try to get caught up the darn mafia site goes down again. I was suspicious of Yogurt, as of 5 pages ago or so. I'll try to get caught up and let you know.

[Yosarian2]

Ok; actually, now that I re-read, I think I actually did read most of that. I like Billy's case against Yogurt, but I still think Albert is higher on my personal list of suspicion. I especally don't like the last several posts Albert made, like how he first followed Glork to attack Shteven, and his last several posts about Yogurt really sound like scum to me:

I'm leaning on YogurtBandit, but its all good.

I'm leaning on YogurtBandit, but its all good.

Why?The others have given diffrent reasons, but it sounds like all that you are trying to do is to seem like you arent following anyone while You really are. usually you would say, "I agree" and vote someone, but there it seems like its trying to cover up what you really say. But its all good?? Again seems like a cover up, saying, I wont vote for him yet, I agree, but I wont vote.Its just too contradictory and I really dont like that post.

I'll be waiting to -1 you, so I don't put my vote yet.

And then he repeated it again that he was "waiting to -1 yogurt". All without actually explaining why he was suspcicios of him or anything useful like that.

Yeah,

confirm vote:Albert

[Yosarian2]

Although, while I don't feel as bad about guardian as I did earlier in the game, posts like this just make my skin crawl.

YB is town.

[Yosarian2]

....why? I say things like that. Do I make your skin crawl, Yos?

Meh. I kind of expect you to make definitive statements about people without giving your reasons right away. But yeah, him just saying "YB is town" rather then, say, explaining why he dosn't like the YB wagon, just dosn't seem like the kind of thing I'd usually expect to hear from a good guy on day 1.

[Yosarian2]

Ok; what reasons did other people give for voting for YB that you agreed with? What convinced you, exactally?

[Yosarian2]

I don't think Albert's an Alt, I think he's a new player, MBL; at least, I just recently played a newbie game with him.

[Yosarian2]

I'm still happy keeping my vote on Albert at the moment, as I still get the feeling he's kind of keeping his head down.

[Yosarian2]

Well, if it comes down to it, I'd rather lynch Yogurt then Guardian.

[Yosarian2]

Well, if it comes down to it, I'd rather lynch Yogurt then Guardian.

That's probably because you and Guardian are scumbuddies together.

:eyebrow:

You know, Glork, it's comments like that that make me suspect you this game.

Although, of course, just as soon as I made that post, Guardian has to go start looking scummy again, grumble grumble.

[Yosarian2]

Hard to explain, but...I'd think you'd know better if you were town then to honestly think that me saying "If it comes down to it, I'd rather see Yogurt lynched then Guardian" actually implies me being scum with Guardian. You've said you'd rather see Guardian be lynched rather then without really explaining it; does that make you scum with Yogurt?

I don;'t know...you could just be a good guy probing for reactions, but it feels more like a scum trying to spread around suspicion.

[Yosarian2]

My point, Yos, is that this kind of behavior has been documented in me both as town and as scum. I am curious to know why, this time, you find it suspicious. What distinguishes my play in *THIS* game from similar play in previous games?

(shrug) Gut, mostly.

In this case, I just did what everyone should do; if there are two major bandwagons, even if you don't completly support either one, it's better for everyone to say which of the two they would support if they had to, because if a deadline hits it might come to that.

You can talk about your playstyle if you want to, but vauge comments like that look designed more to spread suspicion around and confuse the issue then like an actual attempt to find scum. Rather then explain why you think I'm wrong, why you think Guardian would be a better lynch then Yogurt if it came down to it, you just randomally tried to undercut me and to link me to someone I've been attacking all day. That could be an attempt on your part to protect Yogurt, and attempt to further distance yourself from Guardian without actually voting for him, or just an attempt to make me look a little more suspicious, but it did not look like a real attempt on your part to figure out who the scum are.

[Yosarian2]

Man, Glork you

really

want Shteven lynched, huh?

What do you think about BM obviously not having any real suspicions and then ignoring my attack on him?

I thought your last post was rather scummy, guardian. I still think BM was town, and I don't like your angry denial that your vote for him was OMGUS when you felt the need to vote him the day after he voted you, for at least the second time this game. You seem to like to vote for BM right after he votes for you, it's pretty clear that your BM votes have at least an OMGUS component to them.

[Yosarian2]

Yos made a comment about the two biggest bandwagons. At the time, each of those wagons had exactly 5 votes on them, according to AE's vote count.
Your bandwagon had FOUR votes on it at that time -- certainly comparable, enough so that I think there were THREE significant bandwagons.
Yos chose only to comment on the Guardian/YB ones. He didn't mention yours, even though it was of nearly the same size as the other two.

I don't care that you were the third biggest bandwagon. I care that your bandwagon was very, very similar in size and nature to the other two. I felt that including two of them without even mentioning the third was an attempt to mitigate the size and significance of the wagon on you, especially as compared to the other two wagons.

...is that a bit clearer?

I am currently on the Albert bandwagon, which has also big a significant bandwagon today. Albert was my #1 choice for being lynched. I figured I should also comment on the two largest bandwagons going at the moment, seemed like a good idea. I didn't know the exact votecount, and while you've made some reasonable points against Stheven I'm not really seeing him as one of the scummiest people today; I'll go back and take a look at his posts later though, when I have more time.

Anyway, you claim this was your justifaction, but that dosn't actually explain your post; if that was really why you made that comment, then why did you accuse me of being scumbuddies with Guardian? What does that have to do with me not mentioning your Stheven case?

[Yosarian2]

Hmm...well, that's kind of an odd question. You don't look all that scummy to me at the moment, MOS. One thing I did note was this:

Yos defends BM's bad play, not seeing why he thinks BM's logic was any good, because it really wasn't. Really gungho attack on Glork, not seeing this at all.

Which made me consider you as having a possible link to Glork, if he turns out to be scum.

[Yosarian2]

Twenty player game, six weeks old, six replacements, makes it REALLY tough to pick out scum D1 because there's so much noise to disguise anything relevant being said.

I think we should get one last set of replacements, get them on the record, and then lynch. I'm not particularly interested in lynching any of the following players today:

inHim
MoS
Guardian
Glork
Autumn
Twilight
Jack
Yos
Sarc

unvote

Interesting list. I agree with a lot of it, but could you tell me why Guardian is on there?

[Yosarian2]

Um...I think lynching a SK on day 1 is a great thing; greatly decreases the number of anti-town nightkills with means the town has more lynches over the course of the game and the pro-town roles get more chances to act, and it of course also increases the town's odds of winning by eliminating the chances of a SK win. I don't think I've ever seen someone say "we shouldn't lynch X day 1 because he might be a SK" before...

[Yosarian2]

God this game has been dragging so long I don't even remember my role.

Does it start with a "m" and end with an "afia"?

[Yosarian2]

I think a good SK will be more likely to hit scum than town and basically act as a vig for the first few days.

Actually, I disagree with you there; generally, if a good SK thinks he has an idea who the scum is, he'll try to lynch them during the day (when it'll make him look better) while trying to get rid of pro-town threats to him at night.

In any case, even if one were to accept the idea that SK's are as much a threat to the mafia as they are to the town, it would still be a good idea to get rid of a SK ASAP, just because SK's do sometimes win games, even large ones.

Besides, the whole idea that you don't want to lynch him because he might be a SK just seems bizzare to me. It's like saying "Oh, better not lynch him, he might be a surivor". Anyone who's win condition isn't pro-town is a GREAT day 1 lynch.

Could you explain why you think he's a likely SK?

[Yosarian2]

Now there's an effective defense, Albert.

[Yosarian2]

confirm vote:albert

[Yosarian2]

Albert: xyzzy made sense, and you tried to laugh away his post. That looked a bit scummy to me. Now, you want to wait for his analysis, I understand that, but then you OMGUS voted Yogurt for just agreeing with me that your "defense" post was iffy. Now THAT was scummy.

[Yosarian2]

Albert: xyzzy made sense, and you tried to laugh away his post. That looked a bit scummy to me. Now, you want to wait for his analysis, I understand that, but then you OMGUS voted Yogurt for just agreeing with me that your "defense" post was iffy. Now THAT was scummy.

Made sense ? MADE SENSE !?!?!?? LOL!!!

*Sigh*

I'm nearly done with my analysis of this crazy game, but I want to point out the general theme of the analysis:

ABR is scum.

I know, I know, he always acts scummy, but he's acting entirely different. He's... still throwing scumtells all over, but it's not the ones he usually throws. I can't put my finger on it, but he's definitely hiding something. Not acting normal AT ALL.

Vote: ABR

What makes sense out of this ? Besides flawed meta-gaming theories, what is there to this post that makes sense ?!?

I took your post as a joke. YB QFT-ing is NON-SENSICAL. What's this about a "defense" ? His attack consisted of "I have analyzed things and I will show you later, but for now I think Rampage is suspicious". How is one supposed to defend against that ?

FoS: Guardian, Yosarian2

Yes, it made perfect sense. I agree with him that you've been giving off all kinds of scumtells, and while I am in several other games with you, including at least one completed game (a newbie game), I haven't seen you make the same kind of scum tells as town. So yes, his post made perfect sense to me; I do want to see his analysis, but until that point, I'm pretty happy with him.

And while, sure, it's not easy to respond to a post like that, I didn't like your "lol you're so funny" response to his post, trying to pass of what looked to me like a legitimate vote on you as a joke. And now you're pretty much just spazzing out and attacking everyone who attacked you.

Glork's odd behavior, jumping on this wagon and then jumping off a page later when it started to take off, is concerning me a bit. Seems like he's mostly not liking it because it's moving fast, but, um, it's 2 days before deadline, so what's wrong with a wagon moving fast at this point in the day? Especally on someone acting this scummy. Could you clarify please, Glork?

[Yosarian2]

Two people from each wagon, please vote Shteven. We can

do

it.

...seriously? You really think you can just tell 5 people to move their votes 12 hours before deadline without you giving any new arguments at all and that'll just work?

[Yosarian2]

Ok, so that's a sweeping generalization, but when I read through that section thats the feeling I got. First of all, xyzzy

never

backed up his argument against Albert with something that Albert could actually defend against. Albert did get over-defensive about the wagon, but I can forgive him that. He's gone from being a suspicious player to having a huge wagon form on him in the space of a couple of days right before a deadline. I see it as frustration more than anything else.

Completly inaccurate there, Billy. Albert didn't "get overdefensive" BECAUSE he suddenly had a huge wagon on him. He got overdefensive and OMGUSY because of a few minor comments, he got a little more pressure and he completly exploded, and THEN a huge wagon appeared on him. Really not liking the misrepresentation here...

[Yosarian2]

Not liking Guardian's attack on BM at the moment. Could you explain again why you're suspciious of hum?

Also, at the end of the day yesterday, Guardian, you suddenly did a 180 turn and started to suspect YogurtBandit, but now you haven't mentioned him at all yet today. Could you explain this, please?

[Yosarian2]

Ok, that makes some sense. It's also worth noting, though, that MOS was attacking Albert and YB yesterday while DEFENDING you in a wierd way, Guardian, saying you were the "easy" lynch but not a good lynch.

[Yosarian2]

Good thinking, Glork. This is definatly a good time to bus your buddy Guardian.

vote:Guardian

[Yosarian2]

You looked suspicious yesterday, and the fact that it looks like MOS was trying quite hard to keep you from getting lynched yesterday is another black mark against you.

[Yosarian2]

Hey Yos, did you read that long post I made about how everyone seems to want to call me scummy, but nobody wants to present a case?



Go ahead. Make my day.

Eh, I already explained why I don't trust you yesterday. Nothing new since then, really, so I'll probably just keep calling you scummy without making a new case.

Seriously, MOS's buddying up with you yesterday actually makes you look a little more townie in my eyes at the moment then you looked yesterday, but eh, not putting much weight behind something that purely WIFOM.

[Yosarian2]

But I will say that if you are scum, Glork, it wouldn't surprise me if Guardian was your scumbuddy; the way you defended him, then attacked him, then went on to another bandwagon while still distancing yourself from him, and finally accused me of being linked to him based all seem to point in the direction of a possible link there. And so I was at least half serious when I called your "you can die now scum" vote for Guardian, which he interestingly enough completly ignored, a bussing vote.

[Yosarian2]

You responded to my vote, Guardian, and to my comment about Glork bussing you, but you never were like "Glork, why are you voting me?" or any direct response to him, which was what I found interesting. Not that it means that much necessaraly, but it's part of a pattern of how I'd expect a scum being bussed to act.

[Yosarian2]

Using

gut

is not going to cut it with me. Not anymore; not in this game; not when that's the only reasoning anybody can give me.

(shrug) He who lives by the gut, dies by the gut. Especally if you're going to defend your

very well-documented history of just calling people scum in throwaway comments

I'm not sure how you can complain about me doing the same thing to you.

Anyway, today we're lynching Guardian. Like I just said, I'm a little less suspicious of you then I was yesterday, but you're still pretty scummy looking in general.

[Yosarian2]

Back off from Guardian-lynch.

But I've got the rope all picked out and everything!

[Yosarian2]

Bah.

unvote:guardian

, for now anyway.

Guardian, if you are the doc, then why did you protect Glork? Weren't you just saying you thought he might be scum?

(And by the way, your comment about "Shteven protecting Glork" makes no sense...sure, Glork could be scum, Shteven could be scum, but I'm not sure I'd believe the two of them being scum together.)

[Yosarian2]

Oh, I guess I misread your post then. Who did you protect night 1, then?

[Yosarian2]

Actually, never mind, you don't have to answer that.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah...AE has a point, Glork. I kind of understand what you were trying to say, but you could have just said "let's not lynch guardian; if he's telling the truth, he'll probably be dead soon, and if he's not dead soon we'll look again later" and left it at that. The way you said it, it really does sound like it could be a subtle attempt to direct the SK to kill guardian so your scumgroup can go kill someone else. Reminds me a lot of myself when I was scum trying to do that in Hopsital Mafia, in fact.

[Yosarian2]

Um, Shteven, weren't you just saying that it'd be better to not lynch guardian today, because he'd likely be nightkilled? What changed your mind?

[Yosarian2]

Um, Shteven, weren't you just saying that it'd be better to not lynch guardian today, because he'd likely be nightkilled? What changed your mind?

That's the first thing that has pushed shteven well into the possible scum category for me.

Fos: Shteven

I am quite surprised that we still have people voting for Guardian. He's claimed doc without a counterclaim (not that surprising) and he's not likely to survive more than a couple of days. There has to be someone else that you find scummier than Guardian. I still like either YB or TCS myself.

look, you can't tell me you believe his claim!?
The fact is, allowing scum to live another day simply because they claim a power role, is idiotic. We learn alot from either a Guardian or Glork lynch.
but preferably the former obviously.

BM

I think his claim is possible, sure. I also think his claim makes him a bad lynch.

If there's a 50/50 chance someone is scum, they're generally a good lynch; however, if there's a 50% chance they're scum and a 50% chance they're a doc, then they're a bad lynch. That's just how it works.

Besides, the claim acutally does feel genuine to me.

[Yosarian2]

It was a metagame attack. Why didn't you ask for people to vouch for inHim's claim that Glork doesn't make as many mistakes when he's town?

Hmmm... I'm trying to determine whether you're skewing this or not. Yeah,

FOS: Jack

.

I never specifically said that because it was Glork that was making a lot of mistakes made him scum. I think the act of making mistakes - these do not include my scumlist v. player x's scumlist, my votes v. player x's votes, etc. - is scummy, regardless of person.[/quote]

Um...other people were attacking Glork for metagame reasons. Someone (I forget who at the moment) said something like "Hey, don't you always look really town when you're town. You don't look really town now. Are you scum?" And Glork responded with "No, I don't always look really town when town". It was a metagame defense in response to a metagame attack, nothing wrong with that.

[Yosarian2]

Messed up quotes there...only that last paragraph was me, the rest was inhim and jack.

[Yosarian2]

Just a minor point; if the number of doctors was chosen randomly (which I doubt) then there would be a 33% chance of there being another doctor. This is assuming that guardian is a doctor. Not something that I believe, of course.

That dosn't actually make any sense. First of all, I tend to think the setup was chosen randomally, that was kind of the point wasn't it? Secondly, if there are 3 possibilites (0 docs, 1 doc, 2 docs), and if guardian is a doctor ruling out the 0 docs possibility, then there's a 50% chance there's 1 doc and a 50% chance there's 2 docs.

[Yosarian2]

vote:inhim

[Yosarian2]

Heh, I think I may have just become the chaff I keep advocating for us to clear away.

What hoop can I jump through now so we can avoid a silly wagon on me?

I'd like you to explain, from a strictly theoretical mafia-stratagy sense, if and when it is a good idea to lynch a claimed doctor on day 2.

Then, after you're finished that, I want you to explain why you felt the need to tell Guardian that he was "full of it" for saying he was going to be away and asking to hear more from you. Because, from my point of view, it looks like you were just trying to goad him into a response, and disptie the fact that his response ("inHim, you are ridiculous. Really." and "If you are town, seriously, stop being so dumb...") was actally rather mild considering the provication you set up, you then used it to try and accuse him of an "Appeal to emotion". That whole set of posts looks like you trying to set up a noob trap, and I don't like it.

[Yosarian2]

Have I really not said this? I really don't want this to siderail discussion. Hmmm. As it seems some votes toward me depend on this, and I'm not going to go back and check, here is the reasoning I can think of off the top of my head:

I'm pretty certain that, historically, doc claims are by far the second-highest claim (after townie) mafia make. They're also the easiest to work around as far as power roles go.

When a person claims doc, they may as well be killed, because we don't want WIFOM running rampant through the game. Take out the problems that would hinder endgame now, so endgame is easier, you see? This also accounts for what I said in the first statement of this quote.

That's terrible, terrible logic. Yes, doc claims aren't that unusal coming from scum, but I'd still say that when I've seen a doc claim in the past they were telling the truth more often then not. Later on in the game, sure, if someone claimed doc late game, you'd want to kill him. But at this point in the game, if he is a doc, the mafia simply can't afford to leave him alive; after all, if a cop claims and a doc is alive, the cop is guarenteed to get at least one more investiagation and live to the next day, forcing the scum to kill the doc then instead. Unless you have some way to be very, very sure he's scum, lynching a claimed doc this early in the game is terrible town stratagy.

If they are faking, any real doctors don't have to reveal themselves early (you asked me for reasons on Day 2), which is especially crucial in this game. If we had two doctors, all of them could be outed right now. Thankfully, no one else has spoken up, and it needs to stay that way.

Well, yeah, any doctor would have to be pretty darn stupid to counter-claim a doc claim in a game when there was known to be "0-2 docs". In fact, that's one of the main reasons scum claim doc, is to get the real doc to counter-claim, and as that clearly does not apply this game.

Any scum claiming doc this early would be guarenteed dead before endgame, one way or the other. So, between that and the fact that a counterclaim is almost certanly not going to happen, I really don't see scum claiming doc this early.

The "full of it" response was not a goad; I was a little dumbfounded when he "called me out" 'cause, you know, I had been posting and presented what I thought on Guardian at the time (I had more later, as you can see), and he seems to bypass all this and wants "more."

Well, you could have just, you know, said that. From my point of view, it really looks like by just putting a one-line rather insulting response there, you were just trying to get him to react emotionally so you'd have more ammo to get him lynched.

It's all in the angle you take my attacks, so if you think I was goading Guardian into a "noob trap," I can't really change your perspective unless you believe what I just posted. Another thing: I don't consider Guardian to be a "noob" anyways, so now I'm becoming more paranoid about Yos.

Eh. He's been playing forum maifa for, what, about 3 months? He tends to react emotionally a lot and make a lot of typcial noob-scum tells that get him lynched a lot. I don't mean "noob" in any kind of way that's supposed to be insulting, I'm just discribing his playstyle and his weakness, and I think you're trying to take avantage of them to get someone who I know honestly think is a doctor lynched.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) I could see a Shteven wagon today. He's been looking scummier to me today, and his last couple of posts seem to be trying to have it both ways as far as Inhim is conserned.

[Yosarian2]

It's more of a reversal than trying to go both ways, I don't think I made that very clear previously.

Your last couple of posts definatly seem to be trying to have it both ways on inhim.

In one post, you said both this:

Inhim, on a re-read of his posts, looked pretty good. I don't know if this is because he's being all nice and townie, or if he's just after the same people I'm after. It's one of those "enemies of my enemies must be town" kind of things. He did turn around from his initial "not buying Glork's case" to end up voting me, but I'm not convinced this is a plot instead of an error. It could be distancing, wanting to make a "second" case against me and not follow glork, but that's not much to go on alone.

And this:

inhim- Seems alright, but I really don't like his following the I'm-not-Glork-but-I-hate-Shteven train. Also, he recently overreacted to a single vote on him, but that can go either way.

In the same post. The first part, it first sounds like you think he's pro-town, with some qualifications; the second part sounds more like neutral or a little worse.

Then, your next two posts about InHim said that my attack against him was "valuable" but "you still like InHim" but "that was a negitive point". After that, you just said the InHim-Yos conversation was "confusing" without commenting on it one way or another.

So, yeah, it does feel like you're trying to have it both ways, trying to make him look pro-town and trying to distance yourself from him at the same time.

[Yosarian2]

You know, the funny thing is, I really didn't think ManaSpyrte was scummy, until these two posts.

Yeah, Bandwagon me.. Pretty smart. When you lynch someone who's not mafia, then your the next target AE when everyone see's you goofed up. Yay! Shteven has been scummier the last few post then usual.. And for some reason you really want to get votes off him for me.

Unvote

Vote: AE

Don't twitch off the wagon

Amen brother

Unvote, Vote YB

First, he OMGUS vote AE, with one of those "when I get lynched and turn up town they'll lynch you next!" defenses I hate so much, and then he quickly jumps over to the YB wagon giving no reasons of his own. Ugh.

[Yosarian2]

Is Glork always this touchy? I realize emotion isn't necessarily a scum tell, but I'm just curious if those of you who have played more games with him than I have recognize this behavior as normal.

Eh...my guess is that Glork's just not used to getting much pressure on him this early in the game, heh.

Anyway, can we lynch InHim yet?

[Yosarian2]

Sorry if I haven't been posting as much lately. I blame the Civ IV: Beyond the Sword expansion I just bought, heh.

Anyway, I STILL haven't seen anything from InHim to make me think he's town. Right now, my choices for lynch would be:

1. Inhim
2. Shteven
3. Yogurt

I'm least happy about the Yogurt thing, at this point I basically consider him a better then random lynch but not much more, but if needed I'd vote for any of the three at deadline.

[Yosarian2]

Sorry guys, I've fallen way behind in this game. Trying to catch up now.

Guardian: YB is definitely

not

the SK. He was the first person to claim on D1, and he claimed Townie. Considering he wasn't going to be counterclaimed (unless he was moronic enough to claim Vigilante or Cop), he could easily have claimed Doc and bought himself some time. As people discussed around the time of his claim, Townie is a weak claim because it gives a town no incentive to keep you alive. Townie is

especially

a bad claim for an SK. It is also especially a bad claim for scum on D1.

That's...bizzare logic, Glork. He claimed townie when pressured to a claim, and you think that makes it LESS likely he's scum? Since when is a day 1 vanillia townie claim a pro-town tell?

Especally your suggestion that the SK would generally claim Doc is just wierd. A mafia scum claiming doc would be reasonable; a SK claiming doc, though, would pretty much guarentee that he would be nightkilled by the mafia or counterclaimed by the real doc(s) eventually and lose. A claimed doc should never expect to live until endgame, and the SK needs to live until endgame, so claiming doc would be about the worst thing a SK could do.

[Yosarian2]

Somewhat Iffy. Yogurt is pretty likely town as we've been narrowing down scum. I don't consider yogurt very scummy right now, although it's possible that I'm wrong. Hindsight is 20/20, and TCS's call could be an honest mistake.

...that makes no sense at all. We've been "narrowing down scum", and that makes YB town? He might be scum, but you don't think he is, and therefore TCS is lying scum for attacking him?

[Yosarian2]

You misunderstood; it decreases the chances of other players being the doctor if you are telling the truth and are in fact a doctor. If you lied, it has no effect, but since no effect is better than a negative effect, the higher chance of you being doctor-protected is if you are not a doctor yourself.

Not really, though. If Guardian is telling the truth, there's a 50/50 chance there's another doctor. And if there is another doctor, there's a very high chance they would have protected Guardian. So it's certanly quite possible Guardian is telling the truth and got doc protected. It's also quite possible that the scum didn't kill Guardian because they thought they could get him lynched anyway.

[Yosarian2]

Sweet, mafia no-killed, or, much more likely imo, we had a successful doc protection .

If MrBuddyLee (my protection) wasn't NK targeted, I bet there is some other doc out there who protected me and that's why I live -- after me placing the lynching vote on scum at the end of the day yesterday, maybe the scum realized that it finally was no longer feasible to continue trying to lynch a claimed doctor.

Okay, Town. I hate giving up power roles, but its for the good of the town. The reason why I wanted Guardian lynched so badly is because

I'm a doctor

. Now, I bet you're saying to yourself that there could be two doctors, but listen to this. I

DID NOT

protect Guardian, I protected Glork. So according to Guardians post, The Doctor protected him from the scum, but the other doctor is me. So Guardian is lying about his role. Don't you think that the Mafia would go right after a claimed doctor? The fact of the matter is that he's still alive because we didn't lynch him when we had the chance.

Vote: Guardian

Mod Edit: He used the wrong tags. Fixed.

Damnit, manasprite. You DID NOT NEED to claim doc now. Even if you're telling the truth, it proves absolutly nothing; the scum might not have killed Guardian because they expected him to get docprotection, or because they thought they could get him lynched if they didn't kill him. You claiming now gives us absolutly zero information, unless there is a THIRD person who is really a doctor, meaning one of you or Guardian is lying (if there is another real doc out there, please don't claim yet, save that until later).

[Yosarian2]

Um...holy crap. Guardian lied?

vote:Guardian

[Yosarian2]

There is no possible way he is teamscum in my opinion...

What the heck?

How is there no possible way he is mafia?

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, I'd say that at the moment, I believe manasprite (although I'm still annoyed at the unneccesary claim), I think that his claim to have protected Glork means Glork is probably town, and Guardian....(shakes head). Guardian could be telling the truth, but it seems unlikely. At the very least, that would be absolutely horrible play. The obveous answer here is that he's scum who lied about being the doc in order to not get lynched (which worked) and to out the real doc (which also worked), and now he's trying to back away from the claim.

[Yosarian2]

unvote,vote:yos2

are you seriously pulling the lal?

Seriously? Guadian lied and claimed doc in order to not get lynched, we now know he lied, and you believe his new story that he's a lying townie?

[Yosarian2]

Ok. Give me a few minutes to go back and re-read the end of day 2 again and I'll tell you what I think.

[Yosarian2]

(nods) Ok, that's a fair point. If Guardian't had voted YB instead, YB probably would have been lynched. That's a point in his favor, although bussing to make himself uber-confirmed seems plausable, and so does the chance of him being a SK.

I know, I know, I just said like 5 minutes ago (before I saw the re-claim by Guardian) that the SK shouldn't claim doc, but it still seems a heck of a lot better and more probable then a townie claiming doc to avoid being lynched.

[Yosarian2]

Also, please comment on my response to your "that's strange logic, Glork" post. I think my logic is pretty good. :/

Eh...well, I can kind of see what you mean, but it still seems like a bit of a strech. In an open role game, claiming townie when under pressure seems like the most obveous possible move for a scum who's bandwagoned to a claim, especally on day 1, and I don't necessaraly think that how experenced the person is really makes much of a difference there; it seems like claiming townie is the obveous thing to do for any scum in that position, newbie or experenced.

[Yosarian2]

Er, wtf. I somehow missed the second half of your post. Doesn't make the flip-flop any less disconcerting.

Heh...yeah. I just have a really hard time believing that a townie would claim doc under pressure. I don't think I've ever actually seen that happen, it would be an absolutly and obveously horrible terrible move, and it just seems much, much more likely that Guardian being a lying scum of some type.

The point I made a little while ago was that the SK claiming doc would be a bad more for an SK to make, but as far as bad moves go, it's not even in the same UNIVERSE as townie claiming doc would be, heh.

[Yosarian2]

Well, I do have one question for hackerhunt, after that re-read of the end of day 2.

I would say that this latest outburst by Glork only makes me think he's more likely to be scum. The argument he makes against TCS is somewhat reasonable, but I'm not sure why he's such the target here. If you're going to be targeting lurkers, why are you going after TCS so hard? I get the feeling that you're trying too hard to be helpful. I felt that you made a good observation on Sarcastro (see Old Maid Mafia for another example) but you glossed over it very quickly. You also seemed to be in agreement on my concerns about YB, but yet again, you didn't seem to take that any further and you're instead working on engaging people in these heated debates.

Right now, my top four would be YB, Sarcastro, Glork, and TCS. I feel pretty good that there are two scum in that little group.

Hackerhunt: Why did you put Sarc into that list of yours of likely scum? You didn't actually say anything about him, either there or, unless I missed it somewhere, anywhere else. Could you explain why you thought he was scummy? Because I'm right now trying to decide if you just put that name in the list as distancing, which, considering you never actually attacked him anywhere else or voted him anywhere, seems fairly likely to me.

[Yosarian2]

Let's see:

MBL: In general, I don't get a scum vibe from him. AE's theory about him being a possible SK did make sense, but I don't think it's all that strong, and I'm not really seeing MBL as being all that likely to be a mafia member right now.

TCS: Meh. Pretty neutral on him right now. I will say his "I'll participate but only if you guys aren't going to lynch me" post annoys me.

BillyTwilight: Hasn't really posted in a while. Back when he was posting, I tended to agree with most of what he was saying.

[Yosarian2]

Why would it be a horrible and terrible move? People assume this, but I thought about it a great deal, and since it makes no sense for a doctor to counter claim with there being a potentiality of two doctors, and other than outing another doctor, I don't see the downsides of the play.

Well, first of all, your claim DID out another doctor.

Second of all, there's any number of situations where you would later have been proved to be lying. What if a claimed cop dies while you're alive? That would make it pretty obveous you weren't a doctor.

And third of all, what if there were two other doctors? Say, if one had died night 2, then the other one would know you were lying and would probably claim to prove you were lying.

"So I wouldn't get lynched" is a terrible reason for a townie to claim doctor.

It prevented a pro-town player from getting lynched.

It delayed you being lynched. It hardly "prevented" you being lynched; in fact, i would say that the lie made your lynch inevitable.

[Yosarian2]

Yos2, I don't think your vote is very justified either -- you seemingly voted for LAL reasons.

Lynch all liars isn't always approperate, but when a person lies in an attempt to save their own skin, then LAL is a great thing to go by.

[Yosarian2]

Also, I would argue against the likelihood of Guardian devising a plan to bus Sarc to become "uber-confirmed." No offense, Guardian, but I just don't think that you have the necessary experience/exposure to come up with a ploy like busing Guardian on the fly, and I certainly don't believe that you planned to claim-then-bus-Sarc in advance.

Oh, and to comment on this; based on newbie scum play I've seen in the past, if it turns out that Guardian is a mafia member who did bus Sarcastro, I'd wonder if the third mafia member was already on the Sarc wagon and Guardian followed along. That kind of newbie scum play, I see all the time.

[Yosarian2]

Guys, after I get mislynched, take a hard look at Yos2 and Glork. They both flip flopped very recently on my alignment, for very poor reasons.

For poor reasons?

I trusted you for a while because I believed your doc claim. When you admitted that was a lie, I stopped trusting you. If anything, the reasons I was trusting you in the first place were wrong, not the reasons I now don't trust you.

The only reason I STOPPED thinking you were scum was because I believed you. So, good job, you fooled me for a few days and thus postponed your lynch. Of course, postponing your lynch like that is only something worthwhile for you to do if you are scum.

[Yosarian2]

Also, I think your "thought provoking questions" were not the "best" way to put the argument. I want you to reason out for yourself why you should have done what you did, and why it's a good idea in general to lie to the town.

In general it is a good idea to lie to the town if you can convince them, through lies, of something you know to be true.

In this case, I convinced you not to lynch me, as I *know* my alignment to be town and you don't.

But again, you didn't "convince" us to do anything. You tricked us into not lyncing you for the short time period before your lie inevitably fell apart. And by claiming doc, you incresed the chances of the real doc and/or docs either claiming or otherwise giving themselves away.

[Yosarian2]

MS, me being in the mafia makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

You know, the more times you repeat that you couldn't possibly be in the mafia just because of that one vote, the more I think you're probably in the mafia.

[Yosarian2]

I thought LONG and HARD about EVER doing this in the FIRST PLACE and since no one has CONVINCED me OTHERWISE I would do a STUNT like this AGAIN in the FUTURE.

Also, note to self: Next time I'm in a game with guaridan, I should just hammer him without bothering to let him claim, since he'll just lie anyway.

[Yosarian2]

Also, hackerhunt: I'm not sure I believe your explination about the sarc thing. Could you be a little more specific on how his play here reminded you of his play in old maid? Note that I'm not going to read all of old maid mafia, I barely manage to keep up with the games I'm in right now.

[Yosarian2]

Also, Guardian, the only part of your play that made me hesitiate was the part where you "unclaimed". But if you thought you had figured out who the other doc was, then it would make perfect sense for you, as scum, to "unclaim" rather then get the other doc to claim; if you're scum, then once you've figured out who this hypothetical other doc is, you wouldn't WANT him to claim and possibly get protection from the other doc, you'd rather just kill him at night before he claims.

[Yosarian2]

yos, that's fine, if the setup has room for two pro-town power roles and my claiming won't potentially cause a power role to claim.

Right, because there's no chance that you false claiming doc in this game would cause a power role to claim

OH WAI

[Yosarian2]

Guardian, note that you STILL have not been lynched, I believe. Jack unvoted you earlier and just re-voted you.

[Yosarian2]

Oh, Billy voted you. Never mind.

I just hope, for your sake, that you were scum, heh.

[Yosarian2]

As I did not get an answer before the day ended yesterday...

Also, hackerhunt: I'm not sure I believe your explination about the sarc thing. Could you be a little more specific on how his play here reminded you of his play in old maid? Note that I'm not going to read all of old maid mafia, I barely manage to keep up with the games I'm in right now.

[Yosarian2]

... Yes, yes he did. Sigh.

[Yosarian2]

And I agree with Jack; I don't really see the advantage to a massclaim at this time. There's 10 of us left, 2 mafia, and 1 Sk. If we out any masons or cops now, they'll just die tonight or tommorow night with 2 anti-town nightkillers active. We'd be better off waiting until it's more end-game-ish; and/or until a mason, cop, power role, or cop-investigated innocent is about to be lynched.

[Yosarian2]

Ah, interesting. Yeah, that would explain Glork's playstyle, although I've pretty much had him pegged as pro-town since the investigation.

Now that we've got a claimed cop and several investigated innocents, a mason claim might be a good idea, if there are any masons. The scum already have pleanty of targets, giving them a few more won't hurt.

Mod: Prod MrBuddyLee, inHimshallibe, YogurtBandit, and Yosarian2

Truth be told, I wouldn't mind seeing replacements for some/all of these players. You stated in the initial post that there would be staunch restrictions, and that lurking as a playstyle wouldn't fly. That seems to have fallen by the wayside.

This just annoyes me though. I JUST POSTED YESTERDAY. I posted 3 times yesterday, in fact, and while I wasn't active for a period in this game, about a week ago I buckled down and got caught up on the game, and I've been one of the most active people in the game for the past week. Why the hell are you trying to get me replaced now?

[Yosarian2]

Hi.

Not sure the Glork claim was necessary--which makes me wonder if it's a calculated gamble by scum. I was leaning towards answering LML's question "nope, no cop in this game" so I don't see why Glork was so sure he was dying soon. Worst case scenario there's another cop and Glork has to tapdance a little. And why did the Paragon investigate three innocent players as cop? You'd figure he's a better scumhunter than that...

The timing of Glork's claim make perfect sense to me. If I had 3 innocent results out of 10 players, and expected to soon be killed by scum (which, due to manasprite's claim of having protected him, seems very likely now that doc is dead) I'd certanly claim first rather then risk dying with that much info.

And, btw, I freaking hate the "he's the Paragon, why hasn't he found scum yet" comment.

fos:MBL

for that piece of craplogic.

ps. You guys raced to lynch Guardian yesterday--I was gone for ten days and you already strung someone up. Lame. Some of you didn't particularly care about EVERYONE's opinion on the situation, which would have been a tool you could have used to track scum. Those who didn't evaluate EVERYONE are suspiciously incurious. Take your time and find the three dirtbags, please.

Wait...you were gone for TEN DAYS, and you were annoyed that something happened in your absense? That's absurd. There's no reason for any mafia day to ever take more then 2-3 weeks in the first place, and dragging our feet until every single person in the game has weighed in would just kill the momentum of the game and lower the amount of interest in the game, the particiatpaiton, and therefore the town's chances of winning.

[Yosarian2]

I've played a VERY protown game thus far, and you guys are borderline retarded for finding me scummy.

Oh? How have you played a "very protown game" so far? Please clarify.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, have you played well this game? Sure doesn't look like it to me, but I'd like to hear where your mindset's taken you.

(shrug) There was a period where i didn't really have time to keep track of the game and give it the attention it deserved or post as much as I should, and I'm not proud of that. However, that is also certanly true of you as well.

And you found me townish recently but thought it fit to choose this time to FOS me for some trivial junk?

Trivial junk? You just tried to undermine the credibility of Glork, who I think is at least 95% likely to be the cop, with some of the most scummy craplogic I've heard from an experenced player in a mafia game in a long, long time. Now, that's not enough on it's own to vote you, but it was sure as heck worth an FOS.

Also, do you really genuinely think I would be making such a fuss all game about an SK if I were the SK? Puh-lease.

Pure WIFOM, especally since you're the one making that defense. (IE: if you really think "If I was the SK would I talk about the SK" is a solid defense, then why not talk about the SK while you were the SK while being prepared to make that defense?)

[Yosarian2]

...

I suppose logically if we really think MBL probably isn't mafia, he's probably not the best lynch for today; we've got better odds going for one of the people that could be SK or scum, and I agree that his sarc vote makes it less likely he's mafia. He's looked quite scummy since he's got back, and I hate to let him off the hook for that, but I'm thinking he's probably not the best lynch for today unless we think it's possible he could be a mafia who bussed Sarc.

[Yosarian2]

Sarcasm aside, I still have my BM-town tells. I think that Kinetic is an inarticulate and bumbling player (no offense to him), but when it comes down to it I do not see him as scum. Period.

Actually, I've seen Kinetic be much more articulate then this. Interestingly, he was scum that game.

[Yosarian2]

As to you MBL, I understand what you're trying to accomplish with that question. One, you want to try and humiliate me away from voting you. You are trying to say "Well if you can't do this then you're scum, so no one should believe you." Two, you think that no matter what argument I make, you'll find some way to break it down and call me scum because of SOMETHING. and Three, it will be a huge distraction from you. That is all that I see in the people attacking me and trying to wagon me right now, a huge smokescreen, a distraction, and I refuse to participate.

This is the worst paragraph I have ever seen posted in a mafia game. Congratulations. Ostriches around the world will flock to your book if you can rush it to market before Christmas.

...wow, that sentance really fits well into Kinetic's "YOu're trying to humiliate me away from voting you" theory, heh.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, could you post some more detailed thoughts on.... well, just about everyone? I'd like to know what's going through your head right now.

Right now? Not much, beyond my 101 degree feaver. But I'll try to put some thoughts down on paper, sorry if they come out a bit incoherent.

I hope AlyG gets caught up soon, though I understand he's got a lot to catch up on. Note that A. There was an innocent result on him from Glork, so he's not the goon and B. as InHim vanished on Augest 27'th and was not replaced until September 7th, it seems somewhat unlikely that he was the SK . Nonetheless, I was suspicious of InHim earlier, and AlyG could very easily be the Godfather.

MBL: High chance of being the SK. I'll have to read over what he did during the sarc thing yesterday before I come to any conclusion about him being mafia are. He's acting hella scummy today, certanly.

YogurtBandit (or, I guess, now he's Mole): Looked quite scummy earlier in this game. The way the Yogurt wagons have gone, with him suddenly not being lynched and a scum being lynched in his place, seem to make him look kind of townie, I guess...hmmm....is that as strong an argument as people are making it out to be? I mean, is it possible that the town was right about both Yogurt and Sarc yesterday? That would probably mean that bussing scum were on one and/or both wagons, but I don't see that as a problem...I would definatly expect scum to be willing to bus Yogurt, no question. I donno.

Jack: I've been getting pro-town vibes from him.

Kinetic: I think he's a reasonable lynch for today. The only thing that makes me wonder was that thing I mentioned about him seeming more calm and collected then this as scum, but as that's the only completed game I've played with him (I think?), I'm not going to pretend to have some kind of Kinetic metagame wisdom.

Glork: Is almost certanly a pro-town cop.

TCS: Hmmm, looking back at his last few posts, this seems odd.

unvote

because Kinetic is on this wagon.

I agree with Glork. While I find Kinetic scummy the wagon on him looks like nothing more than bald opportunism.

There's no direct contradiction there, as he threw in that "while I think Kinetic is scummy..." line, but it seems like such a HUGE jump to go from "I don't ever want to have my vote in the same place as Kinetic" to "I don't like this wagon on Kinetic" just between September 7th to September 9th. Could you explain what, exactally, you found so "opportuinistc" about the Kinetic wagon there?

I don't really feel like I have any kind of read or even helpful observations on either Shteven or Billy right now. None of their recent posts have set off any major alarm bells for me, nor have they done anything to make me convinced either one is town.

[Yosarian2]

I'll tell you the truth, I really don't like certain "attitudes" and "points" that Jack has presented...

First he things that the mafia will "obviously" kill MBL. He's so sure he doesn't even put down any reasoning.

However, in my opinion, the Mafia have a lot more to worry about from Glork than MBL at this point. Glork can really only find one of their goons. The SK, for all he cares, might not even worry about Glork. He can't hurt him.

...

To tell you the honest truth, MBL has more to worry about if he's mafia about being NKed by the SK then if he's the SK. I see Glork as higher priority in the mafia's eyes. While if MBL is alive tonight that means I've been most likely lynched. We go into day 5 with 4-5 townies, 1-2 mafia, and the SK. But basically, it all boils down to if the SK hits MBL and he's Mafia or not. If I'm lynched, and MBL isn't mafia, we're looking at 4 townies, 2 mafia, and 1 SK. If he is, we're at a much more manageable 5 townies, 1 mafia, 1 SK. Also, depending on which mafia MBL is, we could possibly eliminate up to 3 people from the last mafia pool.

So, all-in-all, IF MBL is the SK, he doesn't need to worry about NKs right now. Mafia are most likely not going to target him. If he is Mafia, he does.

So Jack, if you TRULY believe that MBL is SK and you are not mafia, then by this logic MBL IS the lynch for today.

Man, this post bugs me. Does it feel to anyone else here that Kinetic might be some kind of scum (perhaps SK) trying to direct the other scumgroup in order to avoid having both groups kill the same person?

Him saying "Mafia should kill the cop, SK should not kill the cop" is just incredibly anti-town, and smells of possible in-thread communication to me.

fos:Kinetic

[Yosarian2]

* I'm a pro-town player who's directed the SK to hit MoS, was EASILY the person most responsible for the Sarc lynch, discouraged lynching Guardian...

Got to say, I'm amused by you taking responsibiltiy for "discoraging lynching Guardian", when you weren't even around when we found out that Guardian was lying about being the doctor. Like, you really don't think that that little fact MIGHT have changed your mind about him if you'd been around when it happened? Sheesh.

[Yosarian2]

Got to say, I'm amused by you taking responsibiltiy for "discoraging lynching Guardian", when you weren't even around when we found out that Guardian was lying about being the doctor. Like, you really don't think that that little fact MIGHT have changed your mind about him if you'd been around when it happened? Sheesh.

Yeah, it's nearly as amusing as the fact that I was in the middle of the Nevada desert with no Internet when HackerHuck got chainsawed

When, exactally, did you get back?

but we won't harp on that cause it'd make this game a lot less fun. Have you met your snarky quotient yet today, Yos, and are you finally ready to start hunting scum?

Heh...if my "snarky quota" for today is as high as yours, I apparently still have a ways to go.

And in any case, basically every one of my posts today has been an attempt to figure out who might and might not be scum.

[Yosarian2]

Get over yourself. That was a direct rebuttal to Jack because he said there was "no way" MBL was going to live through the night if he was SK.

My point was to make it apparent that was not "clearly" the case.

Perhaps, that's one possible explination for your post, but...it feels like you went into way more detail then is needed for that kind of thing. The thing is, I've seen that kind of post before, when different scum groups felt the need to communicate in-thread. Heck, I've made that kind of post before, as scum in hospital mafia. The fact is, both scum groups need Glork dead, because he's the closest thing to a confirmed good guy there is at this point, but you just jumped in and signaled "mafia-kill Glork. SK-kill someone else" and thus avoided the chance of them both targeting him and wasting their kills, or both assuming the other would target him and thus accidently letting him live. I've seen both things happen in different games with a late-game cop in this kind of 2 scumgroup situation, and you just prevented them both. So, yeah, in my mind, the chances of you being scum of either type went up with that post.

[Yosarian2]

Billy, do you think there's a significant chance that Glork's the SK?

I realize this was adressed to Billy, but as he's already answered it, I personally don't. Yes, early in the game I thought Glork was acting kind of wierd, but him being cop explains a lot of that; for example, I thought it was kind of strange the way he defended InHim during day 2, when I couldn't see any reason to think InHim was likely to be town (and in fact, I still think his replacement is a reasonable Godfather suspect), but that makes perfect sense with Glork getting an innocent on him earlier. A lot of times, it really feels like me and Glork are kind of on the same wavelength, feeling the same way about the same people, and it's bugged me for a while that that hasn't been happening this game, but the whole Cop thing explains that perfectly.

Whereas I can't see a SK Glork doing what Glork did day 2, which was sticking his neck out to defend inHim while attacking Shteven at the same time, when they were both acting in similar ways; at the time, that made me suspect Glork a bit of possibly being Mafia, but a SK, especally one already getting some negitive attention from some quarters, would have no reason to act like that; too risky, too loud, too high profile. It fits perfectly with Glork being a cop who got an innocent on inHim though.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, when you posted your thoughts on people, you missed Shteven. Mind enlightening us?

Actually, I didn't miss Shteven, I just didn't really have any useful insight there:

I don't really feel like I have any kind of read or even helpful observations on either Shteven or Billy right now. None of their recent posts have set off any major alarm bells for me, nor have they done anything to make me convinced either one is town.

Why, what are your thoughts on Stheven right now? Anything specific I should look for in his posts or comment on or anything?

[Yosarian2]

If I were 100% confirmed as a Cop, who would you like to see me investigate tonight?

I want

everyone

to answer this question.

Hmm...either Kinetic or Mole (YB's replacement, who hasn't actually shown up yet). I think those two are the most likely suspects for the mafia goon at this point.

[Yosarian2]

MBL, do you really think that's a likely possibility here? Because I'm wondering if you're just trying to muddy the waters.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, if you've been reading my posts you know exactly how I feel. I think Glork as scum would have nothing to lose at this point by claiming cop. He was already nighttargeted, and probably will be again unless he comes up with a compelling reason not to target him. "HIT THE SK, ELIMINATE A NK" is a perfect argument for him to use in order to get scum off his case and chasing anyone else.

...I can't imagine how him claiming cop makes it LESS likely the mafia will kill him tonight. I mean, if he really wanted to try to convince the mafia that you were the SK in the hopes they would kill you, then how does him claiming cop help him do that?

Is it LIKELY that he's SK and not cop? He acted weird D1/D2 and hasn't been playing a great game as scumhunter. You whined about me attacking him for that, but you also know that an SK will take whatever kills they can get instead of rocking the boat. I'd put it at "possible, not highly likely" which is why I've explicitly stated I don't want him lynched today. I'd be fascinated to hear your arguments about what CLEARS Glork from being SK though.

Back in post 2362, I explained one reason I think it's unlikely Glork is the SK.

Since when is it muddying the waters to be thorough? Sheesh.

Let me be a bit more specific. If you were SK, then I would think it quite likely for you you to act like this, trying to cast some doubt on Glork being SK, as an attempt to undermine his attacks against you, in order to make him less of a "confirmed innocent", and in order to create some general confusion over who the SK might be. That's what I meant by "muddying the waters"; I wonder if your attack on Glork might be designed just to create confusion and doubt in the mind of the town.

Now, I wouldn't be surprised to see a townie mention the possibility of Glork being the SK, but as it seems like a quite unlikely possibility, I wouldn't really expect a townie to spend that much time pounding that point, especally the disturbing way you seem to do it in direct response to him calling you a SK.

[Yosarian2]

Kinetic, could you explain why you're suspicious of Jack?

[Yosarian2]

Yos, every time I see you post in another game thread and skip over this one, I get the willies. Do you really have nothing to say or are you waiting to see how the tide shifts? There have been several posts by you where you've gauged public opinion, so to speak, and I'd be more likely to see you as town if you didn't seem to be trying to game the situation to some extent.

(shrug) Well, not much has changed, excpet that your last argument with Glork has made you look more SK-ish then you did previously; just got a bad vibe from the way you were defending yourself there.

[Yosarian2]

* Thinks Glork's town cause Manaspryte protected, possible slip

Um...how the hell is that a "possible slip"? The doc claimed he protected Glork, on a night where there was a missing scum kill. How does the not increase the odds of Glork being town?

* FOSes MBL for burden of proficiency (after finding MBL protown the previous day) note: he's sheeping on Glork

Yes, that "burden of proficency" argument you used to try to undermine Glork in response to him attacking you was quite scummy.

* Very defensive about the Guardian lynch he aggressively pushed

Very defensive? I've got nothing to be defensive about. Guardian lied, and the explinations he gave didn't fit with his actions. I'd do it again, no question.

* "Oh? How have you played a "very protown game" so far? Please clarify."
(note: he felt this way 10 days ago, why has he changed his mind all the sudden?)[/quote

Eh? You used that as your defense, that you've played a "very protown game". I asked you to clarify. Not sure what you mean about me changing my mind.

* Four consecutive posts focused on MBL
* Is sick, posting in a daze, sees inHim as unlikely SK for being gone and replaced during NK phase. (note: good spot)
* "MBL: High chance of being the SK. I'll have to read over what he did during the sarc thing yesterday before I come to any conclusion about him being mafia are." (note: he thought I was unlikely mafia two days earlier so this is pure sheepage on Glork)

You know, I never "sheep" Glork, or anyone else. I've suspected you of being the SK since your wierd "we don't really want to lynch the SK because he'll kill scum for us" argument on day 1.

[qute]
* sees Jack, Glork as likely town, Yogurt as uncertain
* sees TCS, Kinetic as possible scum and good lynches
* no read on Billy, Shteven
* sees Yogurt, Kinetic as likely goon

Yes, true.

* responds to accusation of lurking: "Well, not much has changed, excpet that your last argument with Glork has made you look more SK-ish then you did previously" (note: o rly? well, you're not voting for me so wtf are you doing)

I said earlier that I would rather lynch someone today who could be Godfather, Goon, or SK, and that while you're a good Sk suspect that dosn't mean you're necessaraly the lynch for today. Same reason I'm not voting for InHim's replacement even though he seems like a good Godfather suspect. However, yes, that last argument with Glork did make you look more SK-ish, I explained that at the time,and as the odds of you being the SK increase the reasons to not vote you are becoming less important.

Yos is the only player who hasn't voted today. He didn't find me scummy at all start of day

What? Where the hell do you get that idea? I've thought you were a likely SK for a very long time.

, then Glork did a little song and dance and Yos tested the waters, saying that if "we think MBL bused Sarc, it'd be ok to vote him today".

This, right after saying he DIDN'T think MBL bused Sarc.

Ok, now you're misrepresenting me.

In response to Kinetic's post, I mentioned that we probably don't want to lynch someone if we have good reason to think they're not mafia, even if they're a likely SK suspect. I did not say that I don't think you bussed Sarc, I said that *IF* we didn't think you bussed sarc, you might not be a good lynch today. Glork was suggesting that he did think you could be a scum bussed Sarc, and yes, if he could make a case for that being likely, that would definatly make you a good lynch today, instead of a so-so lynch.

By the way, nice scummy little attempt to undermine me by repeating that crappy "Yos was testing the waters" BS. I've simply said what I thought; that's not "testing the waters" at all.

Why are you so passive, Yos?

Meh. I guess I'm a bit torn. Logically, the play for today is probably either Kinetic or TCS or perhaps Yogurt,one of the people who could be any of the three scum roles; however, my gut's telling me that the most suspicious people are you and InHim's replacements. So yeah, I haven't made up my mind about who to vote for. At this point, I'm leaning towards just saying screw the logic and voting you, because I'm having a harder and harder time seeing you as pro-town, but eh, it'd be a high-risk play.

[Yosarian2]

I just realized that you'll probably (intentionally?) misinterpret that last sentance, so let me spell it out for you befor that happens. The "safe" play is to get rid of one of the people who could be any of the scum roles, because if we lynch you and it turns out I'm wrong and you're townie, we have less information tommorow then if we were to eliminate one of the possible goons and they turn out to be townie.

[Yosarian2]

EDIT: Oh yea, investigated innocent. This is why we don't post 5 minutes after waking up, kids.

Is it just me, or does TCS still believe that being investigated innocent is a complete get out of jail free card even though 2/3 scum aren't "guilty"?

Yosarian is guilty of this as well, but at least he backed it up with a decent reason, that killing a non-confirmed will narrow down the pool of possible goons. This is true, but I don't feel that this is a very good strategy, and will probably be less accurate than regular hunting.

I think TCS especially, but also Yos, are clinging to their results a bit too desperately.

Well, there's more pay-off from lynching someone who could theoretically be all three roles; more info that way either way, and better odds. However, I wouldn't necessarally have a problem lynching someone who could be two out of the three; the only time I start to really wonder if it's a good idea is if we're talking about someone who could only be one out of the three, like InHim's replacement, who could be Godfather, but couldn't be a Goon or a SK, because the odds of finding scum are low, and because if we do find the Godfather somewhere else he basically becomes a confirmed innocent.

[Yosarian2]

I've thought you were a likely SK for a very long time.

Have you made that case before today? Why not?

Well, this was where I started wondering about you:

Um...I think lynching a SK on day 1 is a great thing; greatly decreases the number of anti-town nightkills with means the town has more lynches over the course of the game and the pro-town roles get more chances to act, and it of course also increases the town's odds of winning by eliminating the chances of a SK win. I don't think I've ever seen someone say "we shouldn't lynch X day 1 because he might be a SK" before...

Actually, I disagree with you there; generally, if a good SK thinks he has an idea who the scum is, he'll try to lynch them during the day (when it'll make him look better) while trying to get rid of pro-town threats to him at night.

In any case, even if one were to accept the idea that SK's are as much a threat to the mafia as they are to the town, it would still be a good idea to get rid of a SK ASAP, just because SK's do sometimes win games, even large ones.

Besides, the whole idea that you don't want to lynch him because he might be a SK just seems bizzare to me. It's like saying "Oh, better not lynch him, he might be a surivor". Anyone who's win condition isn't pro-town is a GREAT day 1 lynch.

Could you explain why you think he's a likely SK?

I first started to suspect you, and ask you questions, way back duing day 1, when you were trying to plant the idea in everyone's head that the SK was basically a pro-town role who should be kept alive for a while. Which, I should note, is also how the SK has been playing. Your play makes perfect sense as a SK, if you're one of those people who basically plays SK like a vig with the goal of helping the town get rid of the mafia.
Then you managed to mostly vanish off the radar by lurking for a while.

I was actually quite surprised, reading back over my posts, to find that I actually hadn't mentioned that early on. I don't usually bother specifically SK hunting early on, but still, I really thought I had at least expressed that suspicion of you.

And obviously scum disagree with you or else they'd have taken a shot at me by now. (Did they think Glork was SK or cop when they shot at him?)

In fact, scum would probably rather lynch the SK than me right now, which is one reason why my wagon's not rocketing into the stratosphere. (Unless scum's also under heavy heat in which case they'd probably take me as a last resort.) If I'm the obvious SK, maybe you should look back and see who tried to get me lynched D1-D3--they're possible mafiates. The SK would have probably enjoyed the cover I provided them, as evidenced by the fact they've been setting me up unsubtly with their nightkills.

...that's pretty terrible logic there. Even if you're right and the scum don't think you're the SK, that dosn't prove anything, perhaps it just means you've sucessfully tricked the scum. And I'm not sure why you seem so convinced that the scum want the SK dead at this point more then they want good guys dead; that's not nearly as clear an issue as you make it out to be, numerically speaking.

I'm astounded that a few of you people really think an SK would play the way I have from D1.

Still riding that WIFOM defense pretty hard, huh?

It's similar to the fact that no one bothered to ask why Guardian would RETRACT his doc claim yesterday instead of riding it out overnight... the easy answer is that he would have stuck with the claim as scum.

You clearly didn't read yesterday very clearly, as we spent some time discussing the issue. Actually, Guardian himself answered this. He said that he thought he had figured out who the other doc was; if he was scum and he had figured out who the other doc was, he would want to quickly retract his claim before the counterclaim happened.

Seriously, every time you try to convince us that we were all morons for lynching Guardian after he lied abut being the doc and that you would have instantly figured out he was just a townie acting in the most anti-town way I've seen in a while, it makes you look less credible to me. If you're town, I'd expect you to have done the exact same thing if you had been around then. The fact that you apparently either don't see that, or are just ignoring it so you can try to use that mislynch to make me look bad, really makes me have trouble seeing you as a rational pro-town person.

The reason I took fire from D1 like this is because I figured it'd draw a scum kill, and if not, no townie would be dense enough to think that conversing openly with and complimenting the SK would be a survivalist strategy.

...so, you thought the scum would think you were SK and kill you, but that no townie would think you were the SK? Unless you have some reason to think that the scum are dumb, that dosn't make a lot of sense.

It eliminates the possibility that Glork's mafia. It doesn't significantly change the possibility that he's the SK.

Well, lowers the chances of him being mafia at least, yeah.

But for whatever reason you seem to have essentially cleared Glork as SK. Here's your reasoning:

I can't see a SK Glork doing what Glork did day 2, which was sticking his neck out to defend inHim while attacking Shteven at the same time, when they were both acting in similar ways; at the time, that made me suspect Glork a bit of possibly being Mafia, but a SK, especally one already getting some negitive attention from some quarters, would have no reason to act like that; too risky, too loud, too high profile.

So your case against me as SK is that I've been risky, loud and high profile about being the SK, and your case that Glork's NOT the SK is that he's been to risky, loud and high profile?

So sketchy.

Um, I'm not going to rule say "X isn't the SK because he's been loudly and in a high profile way acting like a SK", that would be dumb. However, that action by Glork (defending InHim in that wierd way in that situation) makes sense if Glork's mafia with InHim (I suspected him of being mafia at the time, if you remember), makes sense if Glork is a cop with an innocent on InHim, but dosn't make sense if Glork's the SK.

I agree that MBL's sarc vote makes it less likely he's mafia

Well, right. Any time someone helps lynch a scum, it inherently makes it somewhat less likely they're mafia. I don't see what's wrong with saying that, and then wanting to go back and re-read to narrow down the odds of you possibly bussing a little more. There's no contradiction there, nor is that any evidecne of "testing the waters" or "being a sheep".

Weak sauce. Appeasement. Kowtowing. You thought I was unlikely mafia and then Glork put the squeeze on you. Did you even bother to read Face to Face to see if my Sarc vote here and my CDB vote there were at all similar or did you just swallow Glork's faulty analysis whole?

Such utter bullshit. And no, like I said earlier, I'm not going to go read an entire other mafia game for some minor metagame thing I don't really care about, nor did Glork's post have any real influince on my thoughts, beyond making me want to go back and re-read. Yes, when a 95% confirmed pro-town person who's got a reputation of being a good scumhunter seems to think it's likely that X bussed Y, I'll go back and re-read, but that hardly makes me a "sheep" or says that I'm "appeasing" or "kowtowning" or any of that crap you're spouting.

This post from a week or so ago really bothered me. You guys offed Guardian in SIX DAYS. Not TEN DAYS, not TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

SIX DAYS.

Your post is apologist to the extreme and if you're town you should be ashamed of it because you were apologizing for mafia's and the SK's rush to lynch an innocent without getting everyone on the record about the decision.

fake edit:

SIX DAYS

He lied about being the doc in order to stop himself from being lynched, and then admitted he lied after being semi-counterclaimed. It shouldn't have taken 6 days to lynch him after that point, he should have been dead in 6 hours. The fact that it took 6 days just shows that people at mafiascum have gotten much to slow and hesitant about lynching people even when the choice is incredibly obveous.

By the way, that "Oh, you're being sooo defensive about Guardian" thing is another scumtell on your part; attacking someone about X, and then when they respond, saying they're being over-defensive about X, is a classic scum trick to get someone lynched.

And no, I didn't really feel like we needed to hear from everyone before we lynched him; if he had been scum, he was so obveously doomed that I'd expect his scumbuddies to vote for him just as fast as anyone else, I really didn't feel like we'd get any more info by waiting.

[Yosarian2]

This is so far from the truth, it's not even funny. A lynch isn't purely about lynching the bad guy, it's about gaining information for the next lynch and potential upcoming night actions. I don't know why you'd intentionally miss out on several data points by rushing a lynch like you did yesterday, but it's clear you're going to be stubborn about your correctness in the matter, so I'll drop it.

If Guardian was scum, do you really think his scum mates would have defended him after he came out and admitted he was lying about being the doc? The way people treated him up until that point would certanly be useful information, but how much more information do you think we could have gotten after that came out?

You basically said I haven't played a survivalist strategy, which is correct, and then you said that an SK doesn't take big risks, which is correct, and then you deny that 1+2=3. Instead you decide that what makes the MOST sense here is that I decided from the start of this game to play 100% the opposite of the way an SK should play. And hope against hope that mafia, lynchers or vig NEVER decided, in fifteen kill opportunities, that it'd be worth it to take a shot at me instead of anyone else.

The thing is, playing it really low profile and trying not to be noticed at all dosn't really work as a sucessful SK stratagy. It's not bad as a mafia goon stratagy, because playing it low profile is likely to help you become one of the last 8 or 9 people left if no one notices you're doing it, but for the SK to win you have to make it all the way to the end and survive, and to do that you have to be more then low profile, you have to have some way to survive the part of the game when the town starts lynching off all the low profile people in a process of elimination (as usually happens towards the end of the game). I've been a sucessful SK a few times, and I've never done it by just staying low profile and hoping to not get noticed; you've got to do something else as well to make you a poor end-game lynch suspect, and you've got to do it right from the start.

So, no, I don't necessarally think that you're play is necessarally inconsistant with logical SK play; frankly, in order to have any chance win as a SK in a large game you've usually got to take some pretty big risks, and I could very easily see your day 1 play as an intentional plan to distance yourself from the role and discourage other people from SK hunting right from the start. You're right, it would be risky, but hey, trying to actually win as the SK requires some pretty big risks.

If I'm not the SK, who is, Yos?

(shrug) SK play is so varied, it could in theory be almost anyone at this point; SK is one of the hardest roles to hunt for intentionally. I've explained why I don't think it's Glork or Inhim's replacement; other then that, it's hard to say.

[Yosarian2]

In order for me to accept the claim that we should lynch non-investigated players simply because there are three possible roles instead of two, I'd have to also accept that the town's read is no better than a die roll. Well, there's certainly a lot of room for error, but I'd certainly hope we can do better than random selection. And if my selection falls on a non-goon, that's just fine by me.

Well, it's not just the 2 vs. 3 thing; lynching someone who's not investigated also gives us more information. If we lynch someone who's not investigated and they turn out to be the Godfather or the SK, then those three investigated "innocents" who are still alive become more useful; for example, if we find and lynch the SK. If we lynch someone who's not investigated and they turn out to be a townie, that's not great, but at least it narrows down the possibilites for who a goon might be.

That being said, I'm not necessaraly opposed to lynching someone else, if given a good reason for it. Lynching a non-investigated is a preference, but it's not an absolute one.

What would you do if Glork isn't a cop?

Eh? You mean, if he's a scum pretending to be a cop? I think we'd likely figure that out if he lived a few more days just because he didn't get killed, and frankly even if he was a scum pretending to be a cop he'd still likely get nightkilled by the other group tonight.

[Yosarian2]

Glork's either the SK or the cop, that's nearly certain at this point. So he's not going to be steering us AWAY from anyone besides himself. If he's the SK, he'll steer us TO overly-obvious SK candidates like myself and away from himself. But you don't have to worry about his minimization of suspicion of Kinetic, for example, being suspicious. He pretty much cannot be Kinetic's scumpartner.

So yeah, Glork's just as interested in hitting the godfather and goon as anyone here.

Actually, I'd think that if he was the SK he'd be focusing on trying to get mafia members lynched today, and want to leave likely SK suspects like you alive until later to reduce the chances of the town figuring out his own alignment.

[Yosarian2]

I meant more specifically that he'd be misleading your lynches. Maybe the innocents aren't actually innocent.

I don't believe this to be likely, I just don't like seeing assumptions being taken as fact.

(shrug) Well, I can understand that, but I tend to think that the odds of Glork not being a pro-town cop are incredibly small right now. So yes, I'm treating Glork's cop-ness basically as a fact, because I think it's the closest thing we have at this point to a fact. I mean, very few things in a mafia game are certain except for the alignment of dead players, but in order to figure out anything using logic, you need to start with certain assumptions.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian2

- His predecessor's only post was a bandwagon vote on page 1, which strikes me as somewhat uncharacteristic of a newbie-town. Yos' entrance was wholly unimpressive, he spends the majority of his early posts defending BM to an extent that I find unreasonable from a pro-town perspective. Not feeling too good about him at this point, scum candidate.

I didn't like the wagon on Battle Mage. It was almost entierly reasonless, and, compared to normal BM play, he really wasn't looking at all scummy to me at the point. If you're pro-town and you disagree with a wagon on someone, it's your job to say so; I don't see what supposed to be scummy about that.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, like I mentioned before, I think the move for today is to go after one of the likely "mafia goon" suspects; if we hit either the SK or the Godfather in the process that's even better, but the real goal for today is to hit any of the three bad guys, (as lynching a townie puts us in a bad situation tommorow) and with the info we have the goon should be easiest to find.


So, this is the player list:

Still Alive: (10/20)

1. Shteven

2. MrBuddyLee (MBL)

5. The Central Scrutinizer (TCS)

6. Coron

6. inHimshallIbe

6. AlyG

6.CrashTextDummie

9. BattleMage

9. Kinetic

12. Glork

15. Billy Twilight

16. Jack

16. White

17. Yogurt Bandit

17. Mole

17. Rougeben

18. Nik Zero

18. Yosarian2

Glork is almost certanly not mafia, and if we believe him, then we know that InHim and TCS (and me) are not the mafia goon. So that narrows us down to:

1. Shteven

2. MrBuddyLee (MBL)

9. BattleMage

9. Kinetic

15. Billy Twilight

16. Jack

16. White

17. Yogurt Bandit

17. Mole

17. Rougeben

I know Glork was saying he was still harboring doubts, but at this point, unless he can make a better case then he has so far, I don't think it's likely MBL is mafia (he could very easily be the SK, of course). Billy Twilight and has seemed quite strongly pro-town to me today, and I've been getting a pro-town vibe from Jack for quite a while now.

So, in my opinion, the three most likely suspects for Goon/some other scum role are Shteven, Kinetic, and Rogueban/Yogurt. I'd be very surprised if the Goon isn't one of them, and I think the chances of any of them being any of the scum roles are fairly high.

Kinetic's a reasonable suspect, but while I've gotten some logical scumtells from him, I got a strong pro-town gut feeling from Battle Mage and I'm some weaker town gut feelings from Kinetic (mostly because his play in this game feels different from the one time I've seen him as scum). I know Glork's been going after Shteven for a long time, but I'm not really sure I see quite why; Glork, could you re-state the case for him being mafia? At the moment, I think the best suspect is probably Yogurt/Rogueban; the only point in his favor is the whole "almost got lynched twice" thing, but I'm not willing to take that as a strong town tell.

vote:Rougeban

. I'd be willing to change that if someone can either make a clearer case for him being town or make a stronger case for someone else being the mafia goon.

[Yosarian2]

I'm curious as to why you want to goon hunt, Yos? Isn't the correct play to attempt to find the SK and lengthen the game as much as possible?

At this point, I think the goal should be to lynch a bad guy, any bad guy, because if we do we're in decent shape numerically, no matter if there's a cross kill or not, and if we don't, we're in trouble. And I think our odds of finding the goon today are much higher then our odds of finding any other scum, because with Glork's investigations and such we can rule out about half the town right off the bat.

I also explained the other reasons earlier; any of the people in the "likely goon" group could also easily be another type of scum. If we lynch someone in that group, and it is either the godfather or the SK, we're in incredibly good shape because we should be able to find and lynch the goon tommorow. If they're the goon, then tommorow even if there isn't a cross-kill or a double kill, we'll be in a 6 townie, 1 scum, 1 mafia situation, and that's a pretty good place for the town to be. Wost case scenerio, if we lynch someone in that group and they're a townie, then our odds of lynching the goon tommorow and thus not losing are high, because there are only so many possible goon suspects left.

[Yosarian2]

Correction: We'd actually be in a 5 townie 1 SK 1 scum situation if we lynch the goon and there's no cross-kills or double kills. Still not a bad place to be.

[Yosarian2]

Any specific reason you're putting Yogurt/Rogueben so low on both lists, White?

[Yosarian2]

If any of you have the time to read through those SK comments I posted for everyone, I'd love your thoughts on which one or two seem least sincere, with your explanations. One of those people is taking about themselves as they talk about the SK--it's a direct challenge to each of you to identify one or two prospective SKs out of the bunch.

Well, just going by gut here, but from that collecton on quotes you put together, I'd say that, other then you, the most likely SK candidates are probably Yogurt, TCS, or Shteven. I find it a bit wierd that none of your suspects here responded to your list at all; any of you guys feel like he's misrepresenting you here or anything?

[Yosarian2]

I see a lot of momentum building for a lynch of me, which I suppose isn't a bad idea from a certain perspective. However, I haven't seen a lot of votes, which makes me very, very suspicious of those who are tentative about voting me when in their accusations they all but condemn me.

When I turn up town, either by lynch or death, I hope you all take a good long look at those who are pushing my lynch but not willing to openly advocate it. Those people know I'm town.

And on that note,

Vote: Shteven.

I would prefer to lay the hammer, for my own reasons, but until his wagon builds you know where I stand.

Two things:

1) Thanks for finally voting someone. You happen to have gotten the wrong person, but that's your choice, not mine

2) At first glance, this looks like the first vote you've cast all game that actually has reasoning behind it....But...it's all misdirection. Your reasoning is solid, but you voted the wrong person. Your text is entirely about people who are attacking you without voting, yet I've been voting you for many days and have tried to call for additional voting. So why call out the non-voters, and then vote for an (attempted) wagon leader?

Reread his post. Ask yourself if the text of the post has any connection to his placed vote.

You make a reasonable point here, Shteven.

One question; if you think TCS is the Godfather (it sounds like that's what you're accusing him of), who do you think is his likely goon-partner?

[Yosarian2]

the only time I start to really wonder if it's a good idea is if we're talking about someone who could only be one out of the three, like InHim's replacement

I'm not sure here but why exactly are you handing off a confirmed non sk to someone that's obviously not confirmed? Could you point out what I seem to have missed? (I do admit to reading the thread somewhat hastily but I really resist rereading it)

...I'm not really sure what you're trying to say here. Could you clarify, please?

Even if you're right and the scum don't think you're the SK, that dosn't prove anything

Honestly this bit where Yos is responding to your point (MBL) about scum not jumping on your wagon because they don't think you're the sk doesn't really matter. You assume the scum wouldn't press for an easy lynch which is fatally flawed. Scum can and will do the most outlandish things, even act like newbs while being very experienced. That you (MBL) even discredit and ignore this is a point against you.

Again, huh? We weren't talking about the scum not lynching MBL or whatever. MBL was saying that the scum don't think he was the SK or they would would have killed him, and I pointed out that that's a rather silly defense for him to make, because the mafia don't have any better idea who the SK is then we do.

So, what are you talking about when you say "the scum won't push for an easy lynch" or whatever? Sure the mafia at this point would be happy with any non-mafia being lynched, and they'd probably be quite happy if the SK was lynched. What's your point?

[Yosarian2]

I don't understand why you think InHim's replacement can't be the sk. Just because he was investigated, simply means he's not the goon but he sure could indeed be the SK. I don't understand why you think otherwise.

Ok. It has to do with the fact that InHim vanished on Augest 27'th, that he was not replaced until after the next day started; meanwhile, the SK sent in a kill during the night, sometime between September 1 and September 4. I mean, it's certanly possible InHim did send it in, but if he had sent it in on september 3rd or sometiing, would he have been replaced on september 7th? It's nothing solid, not absolulte proof or anything, but I think it's unlikely he's the SK because of that.

Again, huh? We weren't talking about the scum not lynching MBL or whatever.

In fact, scum would probably rather lynch the SK than me right now, which is one reason why my wagon's not rocketing into the stratosphere.

Even if you're right and the scum don't think you're the SK, that dosn't prove anything

Yes you were. Hence my statement.

[/quote]

Ok. Well, MBL was trying to claim that the fact he wasn't being lynched proved that the scum thought he was town. It was quite a silly defense for a number of reasons; I just pointed out the most obveous one, which is that the mafia don't have any wy of knowing who the SK is any better then the rest of us do.

[Yosarian2]

To repeat myself:

I know Glork's been going after Shteven for a long time, but I'm not really sure I see quite why; Glork, could you re-state the case for him being mafia?

Shteven's on my list of probable goons, so I'd consider voting him today, but I would like to hear the case for him being mafia again.

[Yosarian2]

Isn't scum-leading a horrible, horrible tell? I think that everyone here, town, mafia, sk, already know you don't like MBL. No need to prevent double-kills, is there?

Well, if Glork really does think MBL is the SK, I can't see how Glork wanting the mafia to kill MBL could be considered anti-town. And all that "trying to avoid a double kill" stuff is silly; if MBL is not the SK, then why would the SK want to kill him?

[Yosarian2]

LML: The votecount is incorrect, I'm still voting rogueben.

[Yosarian2]

..still waiting for someone to set out a case against Shteven here.

[Yosarian2]

Honestly, White, I'm not giving the scum any more info than I have to to win the game for the town.

kthxbai

Um...so, explaining why you're suspicious of Shteven now, rather then "when you hammer", would be giving the scum too much info?

[Yosarian2]

I am not liking the current reasoning for the wagon on TCS. It's a distraction orchestrated by Shteven and White. Guys, think for one second and ask why TCS as scum would specifically ask to let himself be the hammer. I understand that his request was a strange one, but TCS does off the wall things when he gets bored with a game. Recently he claimed as a cop in one of the Clue games because he was bored, with very little pressure on him (I don't think he even had a vote at that time). Point is it's not atypical of his play as scum

or

town, and I don't think it's a scumtell at this point.

In fact, I am much more suspicious of Shteven and the others for trying to make a big deal out of this. This feels a lot like Shteven trying to make a big deal out of Glork asking scum to kill MBL when night gets here as well.

One of these three need to be our lynch today. Equally happy with a White or Shteven lynch, and Rogueben's last post brought up reservations of yore about YB.

Hmmm...could you go into a bit more detail with your thougts about Stheven in general? Last time you mentioned him you thought he was pro-town.

Again, he's on my very, very short list of possible goons by process of elimination, but I would like to hear someone actually make a real case against him; it's starting to make me quite nervous that no one seems willing to do that.

[Yosarian2]

Can we drop the subject, please? If TCS is not scum, the scum probably already know what he means, but making him spell it out would be quite a bad idea.

Anyway, I've already explained what we need to do today. Today, we need to kill one of the likely goon suspects, and I'm thinking the goon is probably either Shteven or Rougeben. Does anyone disagree with me on that?

[Yosarian2]

Wait a sec, Yos, weren't you the one asking for a Shteven case?

(nods) By process of elimination (I went into a lot of detail about this earlier in the day), I'd say the 4 people who are likely goon suspects at this point are probably Shteven, Rougeban, Kinetic, and you, and I got strong pro-town tells from Jack and from you, and weaker pro-town vibes from Battle Mage and Kinetic, so I think it's probably Shteven or Rougeban. However, I was asking people for cases against Shteven because I'd also like to have a "positive" case against him as well as a negivite process-of-elimination type of thing, which is all I really have now; that, and I want to get more people to commit themselves to a position vis-a-vis Shteven, the way no one's really directly commenting on him even as he was for a while the largest bandwagon seems odd to me.

Note that at the moment, I'm voting for Rougeban (Yogurt's replacement), but no one else seems willing to go along with me there, and we're running out of time.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, fair enough.

I'm not going to try to do a PBPA; the thing about Jack's play is, you can't really read his posts in isolation, because most of his posts are like "That post by shteven is scummy", you kind of have to read them all in context of the thread. Also, he had quite a lot of posts, at least back on day 1.

Right from the start of day 1, I basically agreed compeltly with a lot of what Jack said, pretty much from the start of my readthrough after I replaced in. He didn't really explain himself so much, perhaps, but he was consistantly saying what I was thinking as I was reading through the game. That always gives me a good vibe. For example, his early suspicions of Glork matched my own thoughts just about exactally, and I also liked his early distrust of the fast and illogical day 1 BM wagon. His other votes (Albert, Yogurt, his lurker n9v vote) also for the most part made good sense to me at the time.

Day 2-3, I get the same feeling. He defended Guardian before Guardian claimed; at a point when if he were scum Guardian would have seemed like an easy lynch; and I don't really see scum trying to buddy up to Guardian there, buddying up to a newbie who looks likely to get lynched probably isn't worth the trouble. I agreed with his suspicioun on InHim.

In general, Jack did not play or vote like I would expect scum to. He was quite active all the way though. Whenver he posted, I could perfectly feel him as a pro-town player making that post. And he didn't really play like scum; he didn't go for a lot of the "easy lynches", he was willing to put pressure on people like me and Glork and stuff, in ways where I'd think scum would be nervous to do that. (shrug) None of that is supposed to be proof or anything, I'm just trying to figure out and explain why I've had pro-town gut feelings on him all game.

White is apparently a fairly new player, at least going by join dates. (shrug) He looks like he's active, and he appears to be looking for scum. That was kind of an odd mistake where he attacked Jack (himself) for lurking (esepcally as i don't really think Jack was lurking); but then again, I don't really think scum would make that kind of mistake; in my experence, scum are much more likely to figure out everything that's going on before they say anything, whereas a townie trying to catch up on a game is more likely to "shoot from the hip". Otherwise, I don't really see anything wrong with White's play today.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, any comment on Jack re: Sarc?

Hmm. (reads back) Well, the fact that he supported Yogurt Bandit over Sarc is a strike against him, I suppose, but considering that Jack has been going after YB all game (and that we don't actually know YB's alignment yet anyway; I think it's fairly likely that both Sarc and YB were scum, in fact), I don't really see it as a major scumtell.

[Yosarian2]

Well, there's me.

Useful tip: when you're trying to do an analyis of everyone in the game and figure stuff out by process of elimination, look back at the mod post on page 1; he generally lists everyone who's dead, everyone who's alive, and who's repalced who.

[Yosarian2]

Kinetic: Care to be more specifc there? How the hell have I been "shady"? And why are you only bringing this up now?

[Yosarian2]

Also, Kinetic, why is a mafia less likely to survive being close to a lynch twice then a town would be? I'd think the other way around would make more sense, that a town who got close to a lynch would have been more likely to get pushed off the edge by scum.

17. Rougeben

Undecided very much so on Rougeben. The likelihood of both Sarc and YB being scum is very remote in my opinion and I just can't fathom to see how YB could have survived two near lynches at mafia.

[Yosarian2]

Shteven, if you're not the mafia goon, then who is?

[Yosarian2]

In case that wasn't clear, I would like you to lay out a case why one of the other possible mafia goon suspects would be a better lynch then you, Shteven.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) I'm not really any more certain then I was a day ago, but

vote:shteven

Out of the three bandwagons, he's the most likely to be scum at the moment; if someone was willing to put together a wagon on either Kinetic or Rougeban I'd consider it, but at the moment that seems unlikely.

Also really not liking CTD at the moment; as InHim's replacement, and on his own merits, he's looking like a fairly probably godfather at the moment.

[Yosarian2]

Call me crazy, but did anyone else get the feeling that yos was holding off because he didn't need to vote for me when 3 was the deadline lynch, but now that we need 4 he had to vote?

Actually, almost true. I voted for you because I'm not willing to leave the vote count in such a way that it could lead to a no-lynch 2 days before the deadline; at that point, no matter what, i was going to put one of the three bandwagons at 4 votes, especally after the mod said that if no one has 4 votes it's a no-lynch.

[Yosarian2]

That's an awful lotta people yer willin to lynch there, Tex.

(shrug) If you've read any of my posts lately, you would know why I am willing and only willing to consider lynching one of them today.

[Yosarian2]

Call me crazy, but did anyone else get the feeling that yos was holding off because he didn't need to vote for me when 3 was the deadline lynch, but now that we need 4 he had to vote?

Actually, almost true. I voted for you because I'm not willing to leave the vote count in such a way that it could lead to a no-lynch 2 days before the deadline; at that point, no matter what, i was going to put one of the three bandwagons at 4 votes, especally after the mod said that if no one has 4 votes it's a no-lynch.

This is a good reason, however, it's a bit suspicious that you wouldn't vote earlier, as then your intentions wouldn't be reflected in the vote count. It's as if you knew that having your vote for me on the record would reflect poorly on you during day 5...and it will.

I did vote earlier. My vote was on Rougeban. With the deadline coming up, it became clear that he wouldn't be lynched, and I've been making it clear for quite a while that I think that either you or him should probably be lynched today.

I've made this all very clear, and you thought I was pro-town just last page. I thought it would have been fairly obveous from my previous posts that I would vote for you at deadline. So, your reaction here is feeling rather OMGUSy to me. I especally don't like the "if you lynch me you'll look bad tommorow" defense, that one always feels scummy to me.

[Yosarian2]

Hmmm...wasn't really that interested in making a specific case against you today, CTD, as I don't think you're the lynch for today. Possibly not for tommorow either; if Shteven is the goon, I'll go back and look for connections; if he's the Godfather, you're semi-cleared, and if he's the SK or a townie then we have a very high chance of finding the goon tommorow by lynching one of hte other goon suspects. I didn't really want to open a lengthy analysis/discussion of a side issue that dosn't really have much to do with today's lynch this close to the deadline, I was just noting I was getting a bad vibe from some of your recent posts which matched the suspicions I had reguarding your predecessor.

Oh, I just noticed you asked me a question earlier I had missed...

Here's a question specifically for Yos:
Does the fact that my predecessor apparently wasn't around last night clear me completely of being the SK in your mind? If not, how high do you think the chances of me being SK are?

I'll start working on wrapping up my analysis right away.

I think it's unlikely. Not so much that he sent in a SK kill, he could have although it would have had to have been one of the last things he did on the site before his absense (looking at the dates of his posts elsewhere on the forum), but the stronger point is that it was such a relevent SK kill, going after one of the people that was suspected to be scum by the end of the day, at a point where I'd expect the SK to want to winnow down the number of scum a bit. If he had sent in a kill, with so little time to spend on mafia and such, I'd expect it to be more random. I also wonder if the mod would have replaced him so fast if he had just sent in a kill before the day started, although I hesitate to get into "outguessing the mod" terratory there.

[Yosarian2]

This sucks. I don't particularly think either Shteven or White are scum right now. If I move my vote to a third party I'm essentially lynching Shteven, who I think is the more innocent-looking of the two current candidates.

Alternatives:

Rogueben--was MoS bussing him D1? Did Yogurt play a pretty good game as scum and fool this many people? Did beanbagboy blatantly wave to his scumpartner at the start of the game?

CTD--yeah scummy, but investigated. if we're wrong we're kinda fucked. did he try to get investigated via weird behavior D1?

Yos--it's never really a good time to lynch Yos, you do it like you take cough medicine, with your nose held.

Twilight--same basic idea, his posts have been pretty damn solid when he's made them. Need to read with a fine-toothed comb.

Kinetic--looked scummy, Twilight cleared him, but what did he clear him of? Kinetic's posts have also looked somewhat townish from time to time, particularly his refusal to incriminate himself which I saw as bizarre but townish.

CTD--inHim was goofy and incautious, which looke dtown to me at least. CTD posted astutely and while scum could do that, iunno. need to see if he's manipulating for an end goal in any way.

Yeah, looking at the alternatives is what makes me still think Shteven is probably the goon, MBL. Jack and White have both looked incredibly pro-town, and while either Kinetic or Rougeban is possible, I'm not seeing either one of them as all that likely at this point.

I also find it really, really odd that none of the people voting White ever bothered to respond to my "why I think Jack is pro-town" post.

[Yosarian2]

If we want to shoot for the goon, we're down to choosing between Rogueben and Twilight if we assume White is clean.

Agreed. It's most likely Rougeben at this point; neither white nor billy twilight look like likely goons to me.

Your list of "possible combinations" are interesting, but dosn't really prove anything, especally since you don't explain why, for example, you're apparently considering CTD a less likely godfather then me, or anything else for that matter.

For quite a while now you've been seeming to downplay the chances of Rougeben being scum, but have never really explained why. Care to explain?

[Yosarian2]

Can someone explain to me Jack/White's town tells? The post at the end of yesterday doesn't mean anything to me.

See my post last week, post 2667.

The Kinetic kill doesn't make sense... I felt Kinetic was town yesterday, and I don't understand why the SK (who I assume is scum hunting at this point) killed him. There were a few players who remained suspicious of Kinetic yesterday after what I felt was pretty good evidence he was town. I want to find the players who most likely thought Kinetic was scum.

(shrug) Well, my guess would be that the SK wanted to ensure that either a mafia member got nightkilled last night, or lynched today; as the goon was almost certanly either Kinetic or Rougeban, IMHO, the Kinetic kill makes perfect sense to me.

[Yosarian2]

We are soundly fucked. I think it's time to go for Billy or White.

Oh? Why do you think that either one of them is a better suspect then Rougeban?

Anyway, we're not screwed yet. If we lynch the SK today, we'd be in a 2 mafia out of 5 situation; if we lynch a mafia member today, then there's a good chance for a cross-kill leaving us in a 1 scum out of 4 situation; if we lynch a mafia memeber today and there's no crosskill, then we get to a 1 scum, 1 SK, 2 townie situation. If we get into that situation, then the correct move is actually to lynch a townie (I'd voulenteer to be lynched in that situation) in order to increase the chances of the two bad guys cross-killing each other.

[Yosarian2]

I've gotten some strong pro-town vibes from Billy for a while now.

[Yosarian2]

Hello? Anyone here?

[Yosarian2]

I think the most likely people to be mafia are TCS and White and I still think the SK is MBL though Yos2 is looking plausible now.

So because I think SK is the play for today I will

Vote: MBL

OMGUS much there?

Anyway, if you want to convince me that you're not the goon, you should try and make a case that someone else is more likely to be the goon then you are. You mention White, but don't actually make any kind of case against him.

[Yosarian2]

I don't see how this is OMGUS. I have been voting MBL for quite a while with the same reasons.

No, the unexplained "Yos looks suspicious" comment that seems unrelated to anything other then the fact I'm suspicious of you is OMGUS.

Waiting for that case against White.

[Yosarian2]

I had made some points against Shteven, but Yos' jump seemed a little... forced... to me. It was shortly after the clarification that with the current votes on players there would be a no lynch, something the SK wouldn't want to happen.

...yeah, but a no-lynch is also something a pro-town player wouldn't want either. So, that'a a move that would make just as much sense from me as pro-town player.

I might do a much more thorough analysis of Yos' play later, but for now general trends and feelings will have to do. Note that Yos hasn't done a lot of "hardcore" analysis and scum-hunting, preferring to do mathematical work that is harder to get called on. Also note that he was still slightly suspicious of Kinetic yesterday, which is something I think the SK would have to be.

Actually, by the end of the day yesterday, I was pretty sure the goon was either Shteven or Rougeban; I was leaning towards rougeban, but I was willing to lynch Shteven if needed to prevent a no-lynch.

Although I was nervous about MBL's early day posts (mostly because he claimed he was going to reread me and see what he thought but instead of suggesting me as scum with my actions he did it in a process of elimination method, which means little since he can't prove that he shouldn't be included in that last anyway), I think it's not very likely that he is mafia and I don't think the SK is in the uninvestigated, so for now he's off the hook.

Eh, no one really thought MBL was the goon, though, so I wouldn't expect a goon-hunt to result in a MBL lynch. And once the goon is dead, the whole "investigated/univestigated" thing dosn't matter anymore. So, if MBL thought that the goon was either Kinetic or Rougeben, then killing kinetic and getting rougeben lynched today makes perfect sense.

That also goes for basically anyone else as well.

Whereas, if I was the SK, I wouldn't really want the goon dead, because that would make the innocent investigation on me irrelevent; if one of the investigated people was the SK, I'd expect them to be trying to nightkill the Godfather, not the Goon.

[Yosarian2]

I agree in principle, Yos. However, the problem with the vote switch is a matter of tone. You seemed to be looking for a reason to move your vote to Shteven.

I thought we needed to lynch either Rougeban or Shteven. So yes, I kind of was "looking for a reason to vote Shteven".

The vote being on Rogueben at the end of the day was a safe place to keep it from a mathematical standpoint, and since he was never in trouble of being lynched at the time you never would have had to defend your vote placement if Rogueben had turned up town.

My vote wasn't on rougeban at the end of the day, it was on Shteven at the end of the day.

The way you went about the Shteven vote switch makes me feel you wanted your vote to be defendable, so you wouldn't get heat for it later. It's the manned you went about the vote and the tone of your posts from that period combined with not wanting to let the day end in no lynch that I find suspicious.

My logic for everything I did yesterday was completly 100% clear, and I think everything I did was the correct pro-town thing for me to do in the situation, ESPECALLY my "Shteven vote switch" and my "not wanting the day to end with a no-lynch". If you want to question my logic for anything I did, please do so. This argument you're using now is compete crap, some vauge garbage about "the tone of my posts" and some horribly WIFOM BS about me being scum because my actions were "defendable". Of course my actions were "defendable", BECAUSE THEY WERE THE CORRECT PRO-TOWN ACTIONS.

The point of my argument is that I find it unlikely that an uninvestigated SK would kill within that pool of players.

And, again, the point of my argument was that while that makes some sense, it's not necessarally true; if the SK either thought Kinetic was the goon, or thought that killing Kinetic would lead to the goon being lynched today, then if he was uninvestigated he would definatly want that, because once the goon is dead the investigation becomes meaningless. So I would actually expect an uninvestigated SK to try and get rid of the goon, if he thought he could.

[Yosarian2]

Surely you must see my dilemma.

As a pro-town player, I know that I am hurting the town by lurking.

Yet, as a pro-town player who is also an admittedly legitimate suspect, if I quit lurking now and post a bunch of shit I'm going to be lambasted for overdefense and mislynched. This happens without fail in games in which I end up a lurker-hunting candidate.

That's just terrible logic. IF you post more, it will help the town, and if you help the town more, it makes you less of a lynch candidate.

Lurking in order to avoid seeming overdefensive sounds more like a scum tactic then a useful pro-town tactic; if you're pro-town, then you should be able to defend yourself effectivly without lurking.

[Yosarian2]

Wow, I was wondering where this game went...what, did it drop off to the next page or something?

Where is everyone?

[Yosarian2]

...
Is anyone actually playing the game? What the hell happened to everyone? This game seemed quite active not that long ago, but the only people who are now posting at all are me and ironically the guy I've long believed to be the mafia goon.

[Yosarian2]

Here are a couple of questions for you, in case you're

actually

interested in getting any kind of discussion going:
1. Who do you think is the godfather, and why (particularly in the context of your goon-suspect)?

Hmm. Well, I still think you're a likely godfather suspect, based mostly on the behavior on InHim and on the limited number of other suspects. Of course, if the only two active people other then me are scum, I'm pretty screwed, h eh.

2. Who do you think is the SK, and why?
3. What are your current thoughts on MBL?

I think MBL is a good SK suspect. However, I think almost anyone could be the SK, even people I otherwise think look pro-town; it's hard to get a good read on people.

MBL is also a goon suspect, and I'm less sure about him not being goon then I was earlier.

4. How sure are you of your current suspicions and are you willing to bet the game on them?

At this point, I'd be happy to lynch either Rougeban or MBL. Which means, basically by definition, that I'd be willing to bet the game on it, yeah, since if we lynch wrong we probably lose.

ALso note that if we don't lynch we probably lose, so yeah, I agree with your "there's no one I would downright refuse to vote" comment.

As for myself, I don't really know where I want this day to go. With MBL, BT, White and TCS having dropped of the face of the earth, it's doubtful that we'll get a lynch at all. At this point, there's no one I'd downright refuse to vote.[/quote]