Mafia 64: The New "C9" - Game over!

[Shteven]

I must say I'm suprised how quickly this game's taken off. Maybe it's been too long since I played, and I just don't remember.

I'm not up to reading the thread carefully, so I'm just checking in, and I'll post again tommorow.

[Shteven]

Shteven's noob summary #1:

Guardian is definately in love with glork and this is kind of scummy.
BM is way too concerned about guardian for day one.
TCS's voting for albert for calling him average is an absolutely perfect reason to vote for someone on day 1.

Remember, I have no idea what's going on.

I just laughed when I saw point #3, so I'm tossing out a mostly random vote to help him out:

Vote: Albert

[Shteven]

Agreed, TCS. I'm on the largest wagon, and I don't really see albert as being in too much risk. Some general ramblings:

Albert, keep in mind that some of us aren't regulars. I'm not in 4 games right now, and I've never played with you. I don't spend much time on this site, and there is absolutely no way I am going to go read your previous games to hope to pick up some hint as to if you are being "usually scummy". My vote on you was mostly random, but as of now, it's still feeling quite correct.

Jack already beat me to it, but I also feel that Glork's being slightly subversive. Of course, he may just be on a whole other level, but take it for it's worth. In most games it seems like everyone's scum to me. Of the really common posters, only TCS seems pro-town. It could be easily faked, but he seems the most calm and controlled. Again, I haven't read his past games and this may just be how he always is.

And I don't have much of a read on the lurkers, of course. I am trying to not be a lurker myself, but this thread moves quite fast

For now, I'm keeping my vote on Albert.

[Shteven]

Glork, sadly it's mostly just a feeling. Most of the arguments are quite WIFOM, in fact. If I was going to pick anything in particular, I'd say #1 is the large annoying red text on page 2. Seemed afraid. Perhaps you are simply more frustrated, but it makes me think you have something to hide. #2 would be the early vote on MBL (random, nothing unusual) but then followed by tons of postings without any vote change. Are you still pushing for MBL? You haven't mentioned anything about him for several pages. Are you waiting for something else to come along?

I'm still favoring an Albert lynch over a Glork lynch, but it's a FNOS (fingernail-OS).

[Shteven]

Thread's kind of moved away from this earlier point by now, but I wanted to catch up and say the main reason you never claim townie is that townies are expendable. If you have no power, you lend your aid through a vote, but if you can't convince everyone, let yourself go.

Sure, it's not optimal, but it's day 1, do you really expect to get scum every time? Maybe you're all that much better than me, but...

Another thing is that while I do know most of the basic tells, I wonder if it's correct to assume that everyone knows the finer details about the differences between claiming townie/cop/doc/vig. That said, in this particular case, it's been mentioned that albert has played many games, so I figure this was either a goof or an intentionally bad move (as in, I'm always actting scummy, now please ignore it).

My vote will stand on albert for quite some time, unless some really awesome evidence comes along.

[Shteven]

This is NOT a roleplaying game. I'm not barred from talking about the internet, or linking to a sailor moon picture (Maybe I'll claim sailor venus for no good reason), or telling you I had a chicken parm sub for lunch today. Joking around is a valid play. It may not be a smart play, but Jack can do it if he wants. Yes, it bothers me a bit as well, but in the end, not too much. It's similiar to albert's always scummy play, maybe you don't like it, but it's fair.

@Glork: True, I generally don't have much optimism for day 1 lynches. That said, I'm not resigned to Albert being scum, I'm just admitting to myself, and everyone else, that there's a fair (but I believe less than 50%) chance of him being pro-town. If showing a lack of conviction is scummy, then I guess you'd have a valid point. Personally, my understanding of the "wishy-washy" scumtell had more to do with jumping wagons. If not being absolutely certain at all times is a scumtell, well, I'd be scummy every game.

I don't like his claim, although I suppose it's not a truly horrible one. I mean, purely statistically speaking, he's most likely to be a townie, and I suppose wanting to save yourself isn't a bad idea in that case, although not as important as if you were a power role. Still, I guess I can't blame him for not wanting to die. Perhaps I gave too much weight to it at first, but my vote was on him before the claim, and it will remain there for the same reasons.

[Shteven]

One thing that has been going on for some time but wasn't directly mentioned (that I recall) is that Glork has handled all (or nearly all) of guardian's defense over the joke about Glork catching every scum for us. Granted he's involved somewhat, but I find it odd that Glork's taken up Guardian's defense to the point where Guardian barely has to mention it.

As far as a summary of my suspicions go, I still like Albert. After that, I'd go battle mage, although I'm less certain there. At some point, Guardian would be fine also. As for Glork, he's definately trying to steer the crowds, but that's a wifom, both sides obviously want to be followed. I must admit that when glork said the bandwagon on BM was likely to have two scum on it, I agree. So he may come down more on the side of town.

Taking the vote count off page 9 (seemed as good as any) BM's wagon was: Haut Boy, HungryJoe, Guardian. If you want to check other pages for other names, please add them here, it's getting late. Haut is now AutumnEvenings, of course. HJ's been a bit odd, but nothing too anti-town, but this would be enough to FOS him in my book. Guardian would be the worst of those three.

I am not forgetting that my vote is still on albert. I also didn't forget that there was a request for my reasons, although I've listed them before, and I believe more than once. I don't have the time tonight, but I will go back and provide a summary of why I'm on Albert still, but this may take until friday or even saturday. We'll see, end of this week looks busy at work.

I may end up switching soon, but should the bandwagon on albert return, I wouldn't be disappointed. It's certainly dead in the water right now.

[Shteven]

I really don't consider myself lurking, but I didn't have time thursday night, and I get home friday, and there's already 8 more pages posted in two days. That's just insane, from my pov. So compared to you guys, I may be. But really, just wow. Get up and get yourselves some drinks My post on wednesday night at 11:30 local (10:27 forum time) was the very post on page 16. it's been about 44 hours since then, and we're on page 24. Some sympathy please. For the record, I have read up to page 19, I will try to catch up this weekend, or later tonight.

I'll answer some of the criticisms of me that were raised in those pages.

Shteven--are you aware that the only person you've voted all game is Albert? And that you placed that vote (which was the 6th vote on his early game wagon) in post 60 and said:
Shteven wrote:
I just laughed when I saw point #3, so I'm tossing out a mostly random vote to help him out: Vote: Albert
? And that aside from Albert, all you've done up until this page is voice a minor suspicion (based on gut feeling) of Glork and discuss game theory? FoS: Shteven.

Yes, I am very aware that albert is the only person I have voted for. I am also having no trouble remembering that it started out as a random vote. It did not remain random for long, though, as I explained in several posts.

From my second post (I'm doing a sort by my posts only):

Albert, keep in mind that some of us aren't regulars. I'm not in 4 games right now, and I've never played with you. I don't spend much time on this site, and there is absolutely no way I am going to go read your previous games to hope to pick up some hint as to if you are being "usually scummy". My vote on you was mostly random, but as of now, it's still feeling quite correct.

So I'm saying that despite random voting, all the things going on since then have reinforced it. It's becoming, over time, a serious vote. I also raised some suspicions of Glork in this post.

In my 4th post I mentioned I did not like Albert's claim, and that I was quite happy remaining on his bandwagon. In my 6th post I was still holding onto Albert, but other posters are catching up, mainly battle mage, guardian, and glork. Lately I haven't seen much from battle mage, and his bandwagon was just as suspicious as he was, so I'm not too certain about that.

And then this is my favorite part, in that 6th post:

I am not forgetting that my vote is still on albert.

But I guess Autumn must have missed that, having just finished reading the thread <.< Also, while I haven't built full fledged cases on most, I have argued against Albert, Glork, Guardian, Battle Mage, Haut Boy (Autumn) and Hungry Joe, which is a bit more than the Albert/Glork you listed. Granted, I haven't said volumes about the other targets, they were merely mentioned. Re-reading my own posts, the only problem I see is that TCS seemed sane back then, and he's now seeming much less so. Where I left off around page 19 he's just starting to pick up a wagon.

Shteven: WHY did you decide you wanted to keep your vote on Albert in Post 160?

Well, it may be the reason I listed right there in post 160:

Albert, keep in mind that some of us aren't regulars. I'm not in 4 games right now, and I've never played with you. I don't spend much time on this site, and there is absolutely no way I am going to go read your previous games to hope to pick up some hint as to if you are being "usually scummy". My vote on you was mostly random, but as of now, it's still feeling quite correct.

To paraphrase, he's acting scummy -- and admitted to acting scummy -- then offered the defense that we should read his other games, and find out that this is normal. I object to that as I hardly am able to keep up with one game, there's no way I'm going to read another 4 so that I can meta-game this one. Considering that defense as completely worthless, My vote remained.

With all that said, there simply wasn't much to go on in the earlier pages (and I'm counting pretty much all the way up to page 15 in that) to make me change my mind. The last few (16-19) have gotten much more interesting, and there are better targets out there. Once I finish reading it, I will post again, and pick someone else. For now,

Unvote.

[Shteven]

by the way, what does EBWOP stand for?

[Shteven]

Agreed. There's been far too many pages going over and over the same people for the same reasons. Albert, Guardian, and TCS all seem to be the same person to me. Glork has posted an incredible amount of text, which I do think is being helpful, but it's also harming just from the sheer quantity. And BM is similiar to albert/guardian/TCS but is also with a side of lurking thrown in.

I wouldn't mind if Albert/Guardian/TCS/Glork would lessen their posts for the next day or two to let some other voices be focused on for a bit. Come back before too long, but give people a shot at actually catching up. A couple short posts are fine.

Other ideas that I'd like to hear more about are yogurt-as-scum ideas, and the various connections with billy/hungryJoe. I think if we can lower the overall post count, the average quality will increase. Eventually the thread got out of control, and I have just now caught up.

Is spamming a scumtell? (this is not an entirely serious question, but I figure it's an interesting thought)

I realize Glork eventually unvoted me, but it wasn't due to a direct post of mine, but rather other people passing me. If you're still suspicious of me, let me know. In a one line summary of my game so far, I random voted albert and then every post he made since then made him seem a bit scummier than the last, so I never moved my vote.

As for my uncast vote, the 5 all seem great from the huge wars they've had. I clearly can't vote for all 5, and there's got to be some of them who are pro-town, so this doesn't really help me much. This is why I wanted to hear more about yogurt, billy, etc. I realize and fully agree that all pro-town players should do their own analysis, but I am currently unwilling to reread all 26 pages. I may do some selective reads of various players. I feel that most of my posts have had content, perhaps not on the scale of Glork, but I wouldn't call all of my posts up to the last few content free, as autumn did. My invitation to Glork is also open to everyone, if you have concerns about me, I will answer them, please repost them now.




*There is no C in Shteven, thanks. I've already added one letter to my name, there's no need to add two. I'm not Yiddish.**

**Not that there's anything wrong with that.

[Shteven]

EBWOP (look at me learning!)

Just wanted to specify what I meant when I started off with "agreed" since there was a post between mine and BT's. I meant specifically the part where billy said:

Posting in this game has gotten out of control. Every time I sit down and try to re-read and get back into the game, I find at least 2-3 more pages than the last time I read the thread. There have been 12 pages and 300+ posts since Wednesday. Yesterday was outrageous, especially since I consider most of it to be crap and arguments that are just as likely to be town arguing with town.

And while most of his player assessments seem pretty good to me I'm in no way granting them all a blanket agreement. In particular, I disagree about lurker hunting; it's a valid attack and this is why I'm concerned when people (mostly autumn) accuse me of it. I have been trying to contribute but post counts have been hard on me. I also don't think Autumn's been posting like crazy, but then again that may just be because so many other people have been posting like crazy, that hers doesn't look so bad by comparison.

Otherwise, his player assements seem like they're coming from a pro-town player.

[Shteven]

Just two cases where people have posted analysis that missed a side case:

Albert struck me as scum from the beginning, but I've ratcheted him all the way down to "Frustrated Townie" at this point. Given his claim and usefullness, I wouldn't be surprised to see him around late in the game...

This also seems to be a good way to give a free pass to a scum buddy's continued survival until late game. That said, I don't think the comment itself was that scummy, and I'm in no way certain you're scum. I'm just pointing out that there's another, much darker, side to this.

I kind of hate to do this as I'm not sure it's entirely fair, but this:

Since TSQ hasn't posted yet, and BM has explained why he hasn't made any game revelant posts in a week, BM is reinstated. TSQ will be the next replacement, if needed.

makes me pretty sure BattleMage is a townie. I don't see any way he could be mafia, as TSQ would have seen the role PM with all the partners. I guess he could be another role (SK or pro-town power role), but those roles are sort of expected to live (as the pro-town role would claim if close to lynch and the SK...well, he has to survive or he loses so it's top priority). I know this is serious meta, but in my opinion, this pretty much clears him. unFos:Battlemage.

Note that the role PM wasn't sent, but I still want to point out a flaw in Autumn's quote:

True. But there's also the side case of BM being town, and TSQ knowing this, and then TSQ replaces a townie. This would still leak information. Even if TSQ replaced scum, he would still know that BM is not a SK/cop/doc/etc. There's simply no case where TSQ would not be at an advantage. Granted, giving a townie the complete list of scum is a bit more powerful than a scum member knowing player X isn't a power role or SK, but you can't clear BM based on the severity of the non-existant mod goof.

[Shteven]

Autumn's defense seems a bit disconnected to me. In my post, I mentioned that we already knew the PM wasn't sent, and then defended herself by saying that? Maybe the original phrasing wasn't clear?

Glork, anything in specific you'd like to see me defend myself on?

[Shteven]

Shteven's Official Very Brief Player Summary!

Unmentioned characters are the ones that haven't made enough of an impression for me to remember.

TCS - Initially seemed scummy due to evasive/odd gameplay. Now, I'm thinking that since game-related posting has picked up, it may be better to go after the people slipping, than people who are just evasive. Perhaps another day.

Albert's much the same as TCS, with an added unusually early claim and starting behavior which puts him slightly ahead of TCS.

Glork - With all the posting he's done, some of it is bound to rub me the wrong way. But a lot of it is accurate and useful, so it's hard to say. Are the few mistakes scum tells, or inevitable goofs just from posting so much? I don't like the way he over defended Guardian early game, although he's now backed off of it. Correcting a scum tell or simple oversight? In any case, he is voting for me, so he can't be perfect!

HackerHuck - You are my hero. You're either very pro-town or the best scum I've seen. I really hope I'm not wrong about this, but hey, you're town.

Autumn - Seems a bit too dedicated to scum hunting. I mean, that's a good thing, but let's remember to breathe, ok? And I wasn't very thrilled with your response to my last question. I wasn't really saying that you're scum, just that you only gave one of the possible outcomes to clear BM. BM is not cleared in my mind.

BM, for the record, is basically another Albert/TCS. He makes me uncomfortable, but I don't have much to go on.

BT - While sadly distracting, I think he managed to defend anti-lurker hunting pretty well. Haven't seen anything that makes me doubt him much yet.

Yogurt - Arguments against Yogurt have seemed convincing so far. That said, I'd really want to go and reread them for myself before I take other people's word for it. Still, it's an IGMEOY.

Guardian - I don't like the way that he jumped his vote around frequently early game. Granted, this is day one, and he's slowed down now, I think he's realized he overdid it a bit. Still, all the jumping, and especially the jumps onto BM's wagon, make him my leading choice for today.

Vote: Guardian

[Shteven]

20. BeanBagBoy (BBB) 20. Plessiez Bizarre opening statement:

I don't think Glork's survival is any reason to blame him. We don't know what went on last night, it could have been any number of reasons that kept him alive.

Actually no, it's only two reasons: two scumgroups chose not to kill him or one chose not to and he's in the other.

Man, people just seem to be missing edge cases left and right, don't they?

Glork could have been saved by a doctor protection. This is assuming we have one (or two), as that's not certain. This can apply to him whether or not he is scum or town.

Again, I don't mean this to imply that MBL is scum trying to hide cases. I just wanted to point this out.

[Shteven]

Two scumgroups, two kills.

Possible vig kill. Granted, a slim chance, as a vig shouldn't be killing on night one (or is that zero?). Just saying, it's possible ;P

[Shteven]

I realize I'm not supposed to be answering other people's questions for them, but MBL's question is so horribly stupid I figured I'd take a crack at it.

Mu.

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mu_%28negative%29)

[Shteven]

It's not that hard to come up with a hypothetical set of scumbuddies, if you think about it.

Not in the least. But then you're basically just saying "hello other player. Please name 3 people you'd like to vote for, I know the game only gives you one, but I'm going to let you target 3 people and not even look half as scummy as you normally would!"

Strikes me as a very odd thing to do, as it makes it seem like they're working together.

[Shteven]

Shteven's first post is a "wow, quick start to the game" post. His second one is a random vote for Albert. Nothing to see here, really.

His Post 160 really provides nothing. Albert not in risk of being lynched, his vote on Albert "is feeling correct" (not explained why, though). A wishy-washy non-comment towards Glork... does call Glork "subversive." Hard to read lurkers.

A fuller quote from 160:

Jack already beat me to it, but I also feel that Glork's being slightly subversive. Of course, he may just be on a whole other level, but take it for it's worth. In most games it seems like everyone's scum to me.

Ask yourself if Glork's description of the post matches your reading of the post.

Post 167: In response to Glork's inquiry about Shteven's gut feeling, Shteven points to the big red text (when I yelled at BM). He also mistakenly asserts that I left my vote uselessly on MBL while making posts regarding other things.

Apparently I was wrong. Glork won't tell you why I'm wrong, but he is Glork, so he's probably right.

The second one bothers me. Supposing I

had

kept my vote on MBL (just for the sake of making the premises of his point true)... he behaves hypocritically here; that is, he is claiming that "Glork leavin his vote on MBL while poking around elsewhere" is scummy, yet he leaves a final comment that he would still like to keep his vote on Albert -- again, with no explanation as to why he is happy to have it there. I don't get it... I really don't.

The point being that you were attacking others, while I stayed with my one choice. Granted it was an early vote and didn't have much to go on, but I don't recall attacking anyone more than albert until after I had unvoted him.

I already explained why I didn't like Shteven's Post 262 (in my own Post 289). Like I said, he seems to go "welp, we'll probably lynch a townie today, but I'll just keep my vote on Albert."
Still no explanation as to why he was happy about his Albertvote

earlier

.

He sortof backtracks in his next post, Post 293. Aside from his misreading me about "resigning to" Albert being town/scum, he decides that though he doesn't like the claim, "it's not truly a horrible one." He kindof ignores the fact that if Albert is town, Townie is the only thing he could claim.
But here's the real kicker. Shteven says this:

but my vote was on him before the claim, and it will remain there for the same reasons.

You never gave any reasons to vote Albert as far as I can possibly tell. And yet now you're stating that you want to keep your vote there for those reasons. What on God's green earth are you *TALKING* about?

Post 375, he affirms his unexplained Albert suspicion, cites Battle Mage as a second, and Guardian as a third. He changes to Glork possibly being town.
What I find interesting here is that though he's got BM listed as his #2 suspect, he agrees with me that there were likely ~2 scums on the wagon.

Shteven:

Do you feel that there were probably 2 scums on BM whether he is scum, town, or regardless of his alignment? Explain your answer, please.

Thirdly:

I also didn't forget that there was a request for my reasons, although I've listed them before, and I believe more than once.

No. You didn't. The closest you came was complaining that Albert expected us to meta him even though few of us have actually played games with him. That hardly sounds like a reason to suspect somebody, much less be this happy with your initially-random vote.

Seriously, Shteven. Look through your own posts ("Find all posts by: Shteven" at the bottom center of the thread, right below the Quick Reply box) and tell us how you've listed your reasons. If indeed you have listed them, I don't understand your reasoning one bit.

The reason I voted Albert started out as a feeling. I got a lot of inspecific queasy feelings from each of his post. Then, he said that we should all read his past games to understand his playstyle. This is not a scumtell. However, it vexed me on a personal level. Not the best reason to vote for someone, I realize. However, the main reason I was so glad to leave it there was because it's the early pages of day 1. If I misrepresented the strength of my convinction (which I believe I did) then it's an error on my part. Attacks such as your post on me don't spring up on page 6. My attack on Albert was much weaker because it was much earlier. I am no longer voting him for this, and while I'm still not very fond of him, it's not worth much anymore. See one additional reason below the next section.

Post 581... responses to posts directed at him.
1) Not really "lurking" per se -- the thread is just moving at an incredible rate. I agree fully with this. I would not take "lurking" as a legitimate point against Shteven here.
2) Responding to AE, he again affirms his suspicion of Albert. I am trying to decide whether Shteven is trying to push through an Argument from Reptition or whether he truly doesn't realize how underexplained his vote is.
3) He cites his earlier post to Albert. Let's quote what he says to explain himself:

So I'm saying that despite random voting, all the things going on since then have reinforced it. It's becoming, over time, a serious vote. I also raised some suspicions of Glork in this post.

He asserts that "things" have happened to reinforce his random-vote. Yet he

STILL DOES NOT EXPLAIN WHAT THOSE THINGS ARE

. This looks like a *textbook* case conjured out of thin air by scum.
His other point is the Albert-claim thing, which he actually backed down from a bit. Is he reaffirming his initial stance here?

Most of the reasons are just above this section. The part I want to add here is the suspicion over his townie claim. This is another thing that hit me fairly strongly on the first read. It's probably because I didn't hold him in high regard. I have backed off this point, because I thought about what would happen if I was in his place. First, I'd wait for the 8th vote at least, but sooner or later, I'd have to claim. And really, there's not that many other things to claim. So while I still hold his early-claim to be fishy, I don't fault him for claiming townie. I don't want to get into more meta discussion, but if someone wants to briefly summarize the courage vs sacrificing a townie choice, I wouldn't mind the info.

4) Aha. Something resembling an actual reason/explanation. While I will agree that it is unreasonable to expect us to read several games to examine his playstyle, using playstyle as a defense is not "completely worthless" as Shteven indicates. Hell, I use playstyle as a defense all the time. Suffice to say, I patentedly disagree with Shteven's reasoning here.

Still, in this post, he decides that "there are better targets" around, and that he will "pick someone else" for whom to vote. Maybe I'm reading too much into his word choice, but it the words "targets" and "pick" bother me in that context. Meh.

"Steven decides his feelings about Albert aren't as strong as he once thought and rationally stops voting for him. But wait, that would kill my case. Oh, I know, he used the word target. Let's lynch him, am I right guys?" ...As for the word target, I like it, I play world of Warcraft, and it's nifty.

I must admit, I actually kinda like Post 649. The first part is kinda general thoughts on post quality vs quantity, which is very "meh" to me. But he's interested in people's thoughts on YB and Billy/Joe. He's still sticking to "the 5" whom he mentioned earlier -- Albert, BM, Glork, Guardian, and... er... Haut/Autumn and HungryJoe. Six. He also openly asks for people to explain their concerns to him. A sincere-sounding post, but not enough to sway me based on his earlier behavior.

Thanks for giving me some credit, I appreciate it

His EBWODP, Post 350, is mostly him defending against Autumn and defending lurkerhunting. He does state that he finds Billy to be pro-town.

Post 789: HH/Albert connection, and he opens the door to attack HH later for HH's comment about Albert. He also adequately invalidates Autumn's "BM is probably town" argument.
(By the way, I don't think I mentioned this -- but I am not fond of the way AE meta'd that. I think that Battle Mage is town for completely unrelated reasons, but I don't think that LmL would accidentally almost compromise the game. If Shea/TSQ never saw a role PM, then he never saw a role PM. The mod's word is law in this case.)

Post 800 could be telling -- thoughts on several players.

TCS may be good for another day, Albert scummier than TCS, unsure about Glork, Huck his "hero" (ha, alliteration here!), AE "too dedicated" to scumhunting; reminds her to breathe -- I guess he's calling her pro-town here... anywho, BM like Albert/TCS, BT done nothing to bring doubt, IGMEO Yogurt, eventually votes Guardian for vote-hopping.

All in all, a very unrevealing "analysis."

She's not the only one who needs to breathe. That's all one sentence. I don't mean to attack grammar, but it would be more clear if it was spaced out. I can't be sure what the sentence fragment "BM like Albert/TCS" means.

What do you think of players such as MBL? MoS?

MBL I haven't been able to get much of a read on, which is odd, since he has been active. I'd have to reread. MoS strikes me as town, plus I like his avatar.

[/quote="Glork"]
His last three posts are two comments about Glork possibly being targeted (if there was an active Vig N1) and a nonsensical response to MBL's nonsensical question.
[/quote]

Mu is an excellent response. If you read the wiki, it explains why. Basically, I'm using it to mean that the question cannot be answered because it based on false assumptions. In other words, "ITS A TRAP LOLZ".

So.... yeah, I think that Shteven

severely

overstated his case against Albert, claimed to an unreasonable degree that he had adequately explained himself (He certainly had not, in my mind.), and has provided a lot of noncommittal analysis.

I just don't like his play. At all. I think he's scum.

If any of this is unclear, or something needs more explaination, let me know. I read it all once, and responded to the chunks, but it's possible missed something.

[Shteven]

EBWOP: One thing about the first point above:

His Post 160 really provides nothing. Albert not in risk of being lynched, his vote on Albert "is feeling correct" (not explained why, though). A wishy-washy non-comment towards Glork... does call Glork "subversive." Hard to read lurkers.

Jack already beat me to it, but I also feel that Glork's being slightly subversive. Of course, he may just be on a whole other level, but take it for it's worth. In most games it seems like everyone's scum to me.

Ask yourself if Glork's description of the post matches your reading of the post.

I agree on the charge of wishy washy, it was his claim that I called him subversive which I thought was grossly misleading.

Jack had previously posted (posts 150, 152) that:

I said I "didn't find you pro townie" so it was more of a feeling based on your posts. It's not more than a feeling because I can't reread (at work). Same goes for those other questions. I got the feeling you were faking your suspicions like scum do.
----
I also get a scum distancing feel from Albert and Glork.

Don't you just love gut based accusations Razz

I was agreeing, but I don't have much to base it on, and at least this time, I wasn't over representing myself much

[Shteven]

No, because if you name three people you are scumbuddies with and vote them, you're sorta admitting to being scum yourself, unless you've already laid out a case against them that doesn't involve you.

That's the it's a trap part. You implicate yourself if you're scum, or if you're town, you're over-implicating 3 people about whom you have no additional information. Yet the question implies that do you have addiational information, hence making it misleading. Even if there is a second cop, on day one, he doesn't really have much of an information lead.

It's possible that useful information could come out of the question. If you asked someone who really had been beating his wife if he's since stopped, and he said he has, that's certainly good news and useful information. The problem is there's more direct and clear ways to get this information. If you want to know who he suspects, just say "name 3 players you suspect the most and want to see thrown under a bus" and you don't have any of the strange implications. Of course, put directly, other players may wonder why he's asking for 3 votes. I see it as basically looking for leadership from someone else, with the implication that we should all be following whatever response is given. Hence, they seemed to be working together, trying to boost credibility. This may be a bit of a stretch, but I just don't like the way the question was phrased.

Shteven, my question to Albert and Yogurt is only mu if they are town. Do you have some inside information that this is the case? If not, would you care to revise and extend your remarks?

First question: No.

Second qustion: It's mu both ways. I believe the above explaination should help. In short, you're asking two players who many people have felt are scummy to lead the town in selecting the entire scum team. In a way, it's kind of like guardian saying to Glork "go find us the 5 scum (counting SK)". And then I suppose we're all intended to follow albert and Yogurt for the next 3 days, with the added credibility that you asked them to be our glorious leaders.

Also, I've never heard of Shteven before this game.

I thought we had played together before? Not sure, but your name did seem familiar. In any case, I played 2-3 games here before, but the last one ended about a year or so before this one started. I don't play often, but LML is a friend of mine and every once in a while he sends me a message that he's about to moderate a game, and I'm usually foolish enough to sign up. It's been fun so far. You should be able to find some of my past games, if you are interested.

[Shteven]

Dear AutumnEvenings,

If I were unable to choose either Albert or Guardian, I would likely be persuing MrBuddyLee or Glork. Especially as of the time of reading your question, MrBuddyLee would have taken the lead. Since he has posted some reasonable things on this page, I'd be less certain. I don't think that anyone would really fall into such a trap, but I can't really guarentee that trying even a bad trap is a scummy behavior. Causes some confusion, I suppose, but it's not really a horrible try.

Glork is one of the players that I get back and forth feelings about, just as you have. Lately it's swung towards scum, but it's not something I'd want to vote on, because it's a bit OMGUS*. Not that I'm absolutely perfect, but I feel I have played my pro-town role pretty well so far, and there are others who should be getting voted. Still, it's not like no townie has ever voted for another town player on day 1. Not really a great reason to lynch someone.

In short, as of page 35, I'd have said Mr. Buddy Lee. Now, I'd probably say Glork.

As for your being happy that I made a large post, I actually consider that post to be one of the ugliest posts I've ever made. The vast amount of quotes renders it nearly unreadable. One is even improperly formed. While a well reasoned argument is vital, in some cases, less is more.

Sincerely,
Shteven

*Help refresh my memory: My understanding of OMGUS (oh my god you scum) is that it's a direct counter-vote for being voted yourself. I'm not sure if/why this is considered a scum tell, I would put it down as simply a bad play that doesn't depend much on alignment. Certainly it's simple enough for scum to avoid doing, isn't it?

[Shteven]

I agree Billy has a strong post. Some of the wall of text did start to strain my eyes, but I think I managed to follow most of it. I'd be happy with either Guardian or Yogurt, so I'll stick with my personal choice, but should you need another vote for yogurt, I'll be there.

Sweet, 4 commas in one sentence.

[Shteven]

Contradictory, no, just scummy. It's the same sort of posts that make me very suspicious of Albert. It's as if he wants to be next. I say, let him.

[Shteven]

It's as if he wants to be next. I say, let him.

^ Scummy post.

Gee, it's like Glork was right all those times he called Shteven scum. Fsking crazy how that works!!

Counting your chickens before they hatch? Or do you know something that the rest of don't, such as the list of your scum team, which I'm not on?

FOS: Glork, too opportunistic

[Shteven]

@MBL:

I realize it's just a fos, but if you could mention what it was that makes you question me I'll do my best to respond. Something in the reread, I assume. The "non-entities" are certainly an issue, but I imagine the mods will find replacements as needed, sometimes it takes a few days You had some decent highlights of guardian, although I have to wonder why you didn't come to any conclusions at all at the end of his post. Instead you ended it with a "joke" of sorts.

Let's compare his two last posts:

Yogurt: Goofball, gets indignant and OMGUSsy if he's town being accused.
Guardian: dunno
Albert: dunno
BM: Irrational but sincere
Glork: Irrational and manic, possibly indifferentish

Followed by a good deal of quotes/thoughts, yet

absolutely no votes or even FOS.

5 targets who have recieved a great deal of attention, several of them the more active players, but doesn't take a single stand on any of them.

Followed by his second post where:

I just reread everything since June 12th cause that's when I plunked down my previous analysis of a few of yall. Since then, Billy made a very well written and voluminous but not particularly persuasive argument against Yogurt. He essentially attacked Yogurt for being Yogurt, with a few nitpicky things thrown in. I'd be interested in seeing Billy make a comparative post analyzing Albert's behavior vs. Yogurt's.

FOS: Hungry Joe, Shteven
Minor FOS: Jack and Huck for being lazy, MoS for being hardheaded about a lot of things.

Now either he's confused, or he wants to analyize the popular choices without actually pushing them any further towards danger?

Worth at least a

FOS: MBL

In other news...

As far as today's wagons go, I'm not completely sold on YB. He certainly seems suspicious to me, but I'm wondering if it's more his posting style than actual scumtells. I'm still in favor of a Guardian lynch. It will be very hard to get a lynch if we have two wagons both with high votes, for the simple fact that we need a majority.

[Shteven]

Well, if it makes you feel any better billy, I never have, nor do I ever intend to claim that I always play scummy. I agree with AE's post, actting scummy is not a get out of jail free card, if you act scummy you should expect to be lynched for it.

I will reread the posts of mine you had issues with and reply to those below.

[Shteven]

@BillyTwilight
post 890 - Indiciated I'd be fine with a YB lynch or the guardian lynch which I left my vote on. Perhaps the indication is something you're supposed to keep to yourself, but I don't mind throwing it out there. It's day 1 and having two targets seems like a pretty narrow list to me. Beats the 4-6 I had mentioned way back around page 6.

post 896 - Showed my distaste for the "I'm always scummy" playstyle. Almost all of albert's post sound scummy to me, and I don't care for it. It's the very same thing you listed in your summary paragraph:

. Nearly every player who has been under large suspicion has claimed that "I always seem scummy" and almost everyone here has let some bad play slide because of it.

I'm trying to call Albert on it, and you consider me the scummy one?

Post 923 - I catch what I consider to be a tell from Glork, and FOS him for it. Presumably the problem with this is that it's another person I'm suspicious of, raising my count. Since two people didn't like "if he wants to be next let him" it probably was over the top. However, taking that line as proof to tell everyone else "See guys, I was right all along, get on the wagon" is a rather large stretch, and still definately worth a FOS.

Post 937 - I try to point out what I consider to be a significant gap in MBL's last two posts.

MBL's defended it by claiming it was there for people to read, but it sounded then, and still does now, pretty inconclusive. Why give a summary of 5 players before your reread, listing 2 as "dunno" and the other three with equally vague phrases, and then not give them a final rating? If you're going to rate them at all, rate them after the reread. I'm sorry if I failed to grok the deeper meaning in your post, but there's really no need to get personally insulting (the spike TV reference) just because I called your post scummy. I thought it was scummy, I still think it is scummy, and if you [billy] think I'm scummy because I've mentioned doubts totaling 4-6 players on day one, then I'm sorry I cast my net so wide. I do rather like to defend myself, I believe that's what we're supposed to be doing when we're attacked. I don't like to leave things unanswered.

I don't have an interest in rereading day 1 during day 1; I'm merely calling out posts I notice (MBL's, Glork's) as I see them. These are FOS worthy, but I'm not about to switch votes based on one minor post I didn't like. I'm still on guardian.

Guardian:
And while this is probably not a valid scumtell, I'd like to mention, AGAIN, that my name is spelled Shteven. There is no C. Guardian, I have already corrected you on this once, and asked you to spell it correctly. Please revote for me with the correct spelling of my name. I know voting is usually fairly forgiving (you can vote for people's acronyms, etc) but I'm really starting to wonder if this is intentional. Guardian, please respond saying you have read this paragraph.

[Shteven]

Actually, that last paragraph of mine was poorly phrased. MBL was the one with the spike TV reference, and then in the middle of the paragraph I changed who I was talking to (to billy). Sloppy construction, and I'm sorry. Billy is an A+++ poster, would buy from you again.

As for "a deliberate misinterpretation" of your post, it wasn't. I read those posts and I didn't think they were that scummy; this should be a given, as I wouldn't post something that I thought was likely to get me lynched. Perhaps I should be slightly more careful, I do play somewhat casually, but I would never intentionally say anything stupid. So when I reread the posts, I figured the problem was they were adding people to an expanding list. Guessing another's intentions is tricky, but of course, that's more or less the goal of mafia. Just be careful when you claim certainty that I was deliberately trying to misinterpret something.

As far as the let albert be next, I'm by no means guarenteeing an instant bandwagon on him day 2. We'll have more information day 2, for one. A better way to phrase it would have been something to the effect of him moving up my scum list, but I really didn't think that sentence would be much of an issue.

Also, I find it interesting you keep mentioning the post where I figured YB would be another good lynch choice but never mentioned [this part of] my later post afterwards:

As far as today's wagons go, I'm not completely sold on YB. He certainly seems suspicious to me, but I'm wondering if it's more his posting style than actual scumtells. I'm still in favor of a Guardian lynch.

I'm keeping an on eye on him, certainly, but there's a pretty clear gap between the two in my mind. The vote count on him made me pay more attention, but in the end, I don't find it that convincing. I don't think omitting this was deliberate.

[Shteven]

A few minor things to Glork:

Calling yos/guardian scumbuddies because he indicated which of the two major wagons he supported is horrifically stupid. I was certainly willing to overlook it, because there have been quite a few people who seem to enjoy posting unhelpful sort-of-but-not-really joke posts. Saying that someone who expresses a preference between two wagons must be scum buddies with the other one is really just wasting everyone's time. And we're already on page 42, so I'd thank you to be more useful, as everyone's opinion of you seems to be that you are in fact useful.

As far as me being 3rd wagon...At some points I suppose I was. I believe at one point (although now quite a lot of pages back) I even was #1 wagon because inhim did a truly random (dice roll) vote and got my wagon to break a tie. It didn't last long, and I've never really felt pressured yet. You are the only serious advocate of my lynch today.

The summary of our conversation is a few small insignicant posts, then your huge post laying out your case, and my huge defense post. Since then, you've more or less repeated that the Shteven lynch is the move to make, without any new points. My question to you is what of my defense post? Do you feel any of my defenses were valid? If you could, for each point (or at least the major ones) do you feel my defense strengthened, weakened, had no affect, or completely eased your feeling that that point made me scum? If there's something you'd still like answered, let me know. As I see it, I haven't left anything unanswered and consider myself cleared. Dragging this on, and the manner by which you do it, are making me more and more suspicious of you, Glork.

And as for the current 3rd wagon, according to Mr Stoofer, you are it.

[Shteven]

I think, Shteven, that if you put even a fraction of your defensive effort into making a legitimate case against Albert, you just might have gotten him lynched.

--Legit point. I probably should put more effort into hunting than defense. But it's simpler to defend, as the posts are directed at me. I suppose I'm simply lazy. There's now 42 pages and I really don't wish to reread them on day one.

Shteven wrote:
"Steven decides his feelings about Albert aren't as strong as he once thought and rationally stops voting for him. But wait, that would kill my case. Oh, I know, he used the word target. Let's lynch him, am I right guys?" ...As for the word target, I like it, I play world of Warcraft, and it's nifty.

This amounts to mere OMGUS, so it's a definite minus point. I tend to look at word choice in people's posting. Tones, specific words, and those "bewteen the lines" things that people say are often pretty telling. FrozenAtlantic once said that my greatest strength was in reading subtext in other people's posts. So I feel that my bringing up your word choice is entirely reasonable.

It's definitely valid to try to read subtext, I never said it wasn't. I simply meant that picking a single word target and claiming that makes me scum is entirely unreasonable. Perhaps I should explain the wow reference a bit more, but I really don't think it's necessary to mention that I use the word target several dozen if not hundreds of times a day, and so I also use it in games of mafia. I don't see what you mean by me straw-manning you here, my response was brief, but I thought it would be clear. I suppose it wasn't. Subtext is fine, but saying that I used the word target and I must be scum is incredibly weak. Not sure what you mean by point 4 being ignored.

Since then, I agree fully with AE's point that your only focus is on self-survival. To an extent, I realize that everybody should want to survive. But given what I've felt has been a fairly large difference between your defensive efforts and your scumfinding efforts, I think that AE might be onto something.
Take this, for instance. Each of your last six posts of the game have been primarily defensive. In two of them, you have also dropped "Glork is scum" insinuations while directly responding to my behavior towards you.

I suppose this sounds OMGUS but since I know that both I'm town and that Glork is reputed to be excellent, if I know that Glork is wrong, then the most likely result is that Glork is scum. It's your reputation that makes me doubt you. If you were an unknown, I'd be much more likely to assume mistaken town. This is also why I am much less critical of Albert, guardian, etc.

I am also fairly disgruntled that most (if not all -- I haven't bothered to check specifically) of your top suspects [Glork, Albert, Guardian, MBL] have been people who have poked around at you. It comes back to the OMGUS thing... only, it's on a larger scale. Mass OMGUS is more likely to be a scumtell than individual OMGUS, in my opinion.

I'm sure you're right that they poked me, but I don't seem to recall much of anything from MBL. Plus I poked Albert first. Not that it did me much good

And the point about me being the 3rd wagon now is rather moot. At the time that I was unhappy with Yos2's comment, you were the third wagon, and you were only a single vote behind the other two. That is all that matters.

My point wasn't that you're the third wagon and must be evil; my point was that being the third wagon on this day one is pointless. For a wagon to be threatening it has to be considerably higher than 3 votes; especially if there are two other wagons ahead of it. I don't see why you think my being third at some point is "all that matters." It's simply far too strong of a statement.

[Shteven]

I don't have the presence of mind to go over YB's defense at the moment, but I will give it careful attention early next week. A bit excessive on the quoting for my tastes, although I will admit that not quoting can cause some confusion, and you'll find some evidence of this below with me and glork's conversation. But for now, it's time for my favorite activity, defending myself! (Yes, I'm sorry I do this so much, I should be hunting, etc...)

I just feel like glork and I are finally making, you know, progress. It's more of a discussion than people shouting points which no one answers

Regarding the usage of the word target, I hadn't been referencing the orginal post (and still don't feel like searching for it) but assuming your quote is accurate, and it does sound familiar, then I probably am making too much out of it. Target is pretty insignificant, but if we agree about that, let's drop it. You're allowed to have "feelings" on other players and allowed to note them if you admit to them being weak reasons.

You being scum and me going after you does NOT make me more likely to be scum.

Now this sounds interesting. I'm pretty sure you meant to say me being town, as that's the premise which you are claiming is a logical fallacy. But you regard me as scum, and here you slipped to say scum. Of course, all that probably indicates is that you think I'm scum, so probably no new information there, I just wanted to point it out.

As for it being a logical fallacy, it's not. I didn't lay out the complete logical case though, so I'll do that now. There is an extra assumption:

Assumptions:
1) Glork has a greater than random chance (4/17 atm, 5/17 with SK) scum hunting record as town. For it to be useful as a tell, it really needs to be fairly high, I'd at least 75-80%. You won't get much information from a player who had a 6/17 success rate.
2) If glork is scum, he'll target a town player for lynching. If glork is town, he'll hunt scum, with a chance to be correct, let's just use 80%.

Conclusions:
This would then give me an easy 80% certainty that Glork is scum. For all other (town) players, it's 80% * X, where X is your confidence that I am town. If you're 75% sure that I'm town, and you believe the assumptions , then Glork is 60% scum. Which is a lot higher than 4/17, or 23%. I'm the only one who knows that I am town for sure (mafia could think I'm SK, but more or less, they also know I'm town).

The main problem with this is that it's simply far too good. It's such an obvious tell that we have to assume that Glork's aware of it, and will at times break assumption #2 for this very reason. However, it is in no way a logical fallacy that I see, and you didn't really explain this point either. I suppose your defense would be that you simply will never ever follow #2, but that would raise a really interesting question about a player ever being any good at mafia. If it's the case that anyone who's good at finding scum has to NOT find scum in order to make it possible for them to play scum, well, that's a rather unfortunate meta-gaming strategy. You'd be hindering your incredibly useful town play when you have a town role until it was back to or near pure random chance.

As for the 3 wagon thing, yes, that's clearer. I still think you're making more out of my wagon than you should, though. If I recall, inhim only made me the 3rd wagon by rolling a die? There wasn't anyone pushing my wagon besides you, and I had never felt any pressure, so it simply wasn't on my mind. I still wouldn't feel any pressure now, if not for the coming deadline of 6 votes. I'm no where near 10, but 6 is more reachable. I, and pretty much anyone with 2 or more votes, should start to pay attention this comming week

[Shteven]

@ glork

I think the only thing I disagreed with in your last post was the use of the word fallacy To me, that means you've drawn a conclusion that does not follow from the assumptions. If the assumptions themselves are wrong, then that's just using wrong assumptions. Like I said, in order for it to be useful, you'd have to have a rather high success rate. And I trust that you wouldn't lie about your record, so clearly the success rate was unrealistic. Or rather, it is for day 1. Day 1 you just can't be that certain.

Of course, we have to lynch someone, but if the success rate truly is so low be careful how certain you make your case sound. After all, me sounding too certain about albert was what got most people thinking I was scum in the first place.

[Shteven]

True, I'm not putting that much weight on it anymore, but the difference between logical fallacy and incorrect assumptions is one that is important to me, at least for my pride. One says I can't (or at least didn't here) reason correctly, the other simply means I overestimated your reputation. I wouldn't mind that so much. Other than my pride, other players would probably not use it to claim that I'm trying to be deliberately misleading.

The lower your accuracy, the less of the tell it is. Your accuracy should be somewhat higher than random, but on day one, it's not enough to be accurate. Maybe on day three, we'll have to wait and see

[Shteven]

To answer YB's question in short, I'd say the people I find scummy are Guardian, Albert, and Glork.
MBL and BM were up there, although they've been dropping off somewhat. In the case of BM, probably simply due to lurking.

Guardian: I don't like the way that he jumped his vote around frequently early game. Granted, this is day one, and he's slowed down now, I think he's realized he overdid it a bit. Still, all the jumping, and especially the jumps onto BM's wagon, make him my leading choice for today. (For the astute, yes, these are my earlier comments, my view hasn't changed.)

Glork: Earlier reasoning: I don't like the way he over defended Guardian early game, although he's now backed off of it.
Newer: I also have not been very encouraged by our recent exchanges. I imagine he's gotten the whole 'Glork lynching a town makes him scum' argument before, but I still don't see the logical error. More below.

Albert's pretty infuriating as I can't really put together a solid case, but he just makes posts like:

Okay this is my strategy:

I'm going to use Glork as a shield and hide behind him until all his suspects are lynched and then I'm going to throw myself off the regional mountain to avoid getting lynched.

among 600 others that are quite similar, which make me want to ring his neck. Or use a rope for that purpose <.<

As far as MOS's experiment, I agree the experiment is a bad one. Because if you're looking for mistakes you make that people think are scummy, you're probably scum trying to cover mistakes. You'd have less to fear being town. This could be wifom, but it strikes me a bit more as trying to divert attention from honest mistakes by putting intentional mistakes out there. In any case, you seem town to me so far, so without looking back I don't recall anything specific.

@Glork: There's a difference between fallacy and a weak tell. If your scum hunting isn't 80% (which was definitely too high) then the tell becomes -weaker-, it does not magically invert from correct to false. All that you need is a hunting chance just slightly over average and it would be -some- tell, just an extremely weak one. The only issue I could see would be if Glork Scum buses fellow scum as often as he is right about finding scum day 1 when he's town. I suppose that's possible, but it's not so horrible an outcome for the town to get an (hopefully) easy lynch day 1. I admit the chance of finding scum on day 1 by a townie isn't high enough for this to be enough for a lynch, but I don't feel there's any logical errors made. You've repeatedly said it was completely incorrect, but haven't stated why; what is the logical error, specifically? Are you claiming to bus scum frequently?

[Shteven]

Unofficial Day One Vote Count:

Guardian – 5 – Battle Mage, HackerHuck, inHimshallibe, Shteven, AutumnEvenings
YogurtBandit – 5 – Billy Twilight, HungryJoe, Jack, Mastermind of Sin, Sarcastro
Glork – 2 – johhan, The Central Scrutinizer
Shteven – 2 – Glork, Albert B. Rampage
Albert B. Rampage – 1 – Yosarian2,
The Central Scrutinizer – 1 – YogurtBandit
Battle Mage - 1 - Guardian

Not voting – MBL

Very little has changed. the last vote count was on page 43, the only changes since then was Sarc replaced his predessor's vote on YB with his own vote on YB, and then MBL unvoted (previously voting Glork).

Glork's in no real danger, although I still find his wagon a bit interesting, because of TCS. TCS I haven't gotten much of a read on due to typically short posts, such as his post for voting glork:

unvote, vote: Glork

It was a mistake to unvote you.

Kind of hard to read into that. He's apparently pretty sure though. I find his last post also pretty odd:

Check the vacations/away thread.

I'm happy with the Glork-vote. I don't see any reason to join another bandwagon.

You'd be ok with a no-lynch? I'm curious what you see in Glork, as I see it also, but we don't seem to be the majority. But for today, I would advise ensuring Guardian (preferably) or Yogurt is lynched, I don't think a no-lynch is in order. Only 4 days to go.

P.S. For those who don't know, LML is on his honeymoon, so modding may be a bit slow. Let me know if I missed anything on my vote count, and YB, lay off the bold text!

[Shteven]

EBWOP: Figured for completeness I should include the post where TCS orginally voted for glork, because it is much more informative:

Call it a hunch, but vote: Glork. If one of Yogurt/Guardian were to be scum with him, I would probably have to go with Guardian.

I'm extremely uneasy when a player of Glork's reputation makes a comment to the effect of "I could lynch X or Y" without much accompanying analysis or opinion. In fact, the last time that Glork did so in a game I was in, he was scum, and one of the two players he mentioned was scum with him. That Glork mentioned he could go for a Shteven or Guardian lynch makes me think that should Glork come up mafia, Shteven is town and Guardian is scum.

Any vote I would make on Guardian would be predicated in a large part on the results of Glork's alignment. Other than that, he and Yogurt are equally appealing lynches, and I cannot vote for either without more to read.

[Shteven]

I'm starting to get the feeling that Albert is deliberately playing scummy so that it obscures his real role. I still prefer a Guardian lynch, but I think Albert still deserves some attention.

Agreed. There's really only one reason to hide your role, and that's because it's anti-town. Yes, cops and docs don't want to be known, but there's really not many things you can do to give away that you're a cop/doc on day one. At least none I can think of. They aren't really roles that broadcast themselves, unless you come out really strong against someone as a cop.

As far as MBL goes, he's been a secondary target of mine for a long time, and I'd be glad to switch to him if a lynch of him was possible. In fact I think I'll promote him to #2 exactly.

What I find especially odd is that both Yogurt and Guardian are throwing away their votes on someone who has only 1 vote. Either one of them could give the other the 6th vote. They'd still have to ride out until the 10th, but honestly, I don't see why they haven't ended this yet. Maybe it would look bad, but even so, I'd do it if I was them...

Overall, my order of lynch preference:
Guardian
MBL
Albert
Glork
Yogurt (better than a no-lynch)

[Shteven]

Well that was a rather surprising turn of events. After wondering if a MBL wagon would spring up, Albert's taken the honor instead. Well, reference my post on page 49, Albert was my third choice, and for day 1, that's plenty for me.

Unvote, Vote: Albert B. Rampage

Not really necessary since he's already at 6, but who knows, maybe we'll make 10.[/b]

[Shteven]

Also, I wanted to add a comment about the previous situation, when yogurt/guardian are at 5 each, and not voting for each other. True, it may seem scummy to save yourself by killing someone else, but is it worth looking scummy to help the town significantly? I think so. Let's use the following assumptions:

To outsiders, both Yogurt/Guardian are probable scum. They were the leading wagons, so this is reasonable. However, let's pretend you are Yogurt. You know, 100%, from your role pm, that you're a townie. So would you want to let the town kill a townie, or would you want to give the town a significant chance to lynch scum? Yes, you may end up dying day two. But you may not. And if the town mis-lynches you on day 2, you still got scum day one (hopefully).

P.S. I am not claiming that I know yogurt is townie

I think too much effort is made to avoid looking scummy. I'm not saying go all out scummy, but if there's a simple game theoretic answer, then use it even if it may look bad. There may only be a 50% chance that the other guy really is scum, but if you are town, you know there's a 0% chance that you are, so don't let someone else roll the dice when you can make the correct decision. Part of being a townie is not just being willing to die, but also to be willing to say what needs to be said even if it may hurt you personally. Townies should be the ones leading the hunt for scum. Cops/Docs/Vigs hold back, or at least until the cop has some results.

[Shteven]

@MBL: Sure, I don't like having my suspects on the same wagon as me, but realistically, you're never going to see a day 1 wagon without scum on it. Or probably any wagons. Some of them will jump on, some of them won't. Mafia join wagons. Some mafia join wagons on their fellow mafia.

I'm not sure what case this one is, Albert remains my third choice, and I'm not that thrilled with the speed of the wagon either. But this is page 52 people. Page Fifty-Two. On day one. I'd like to move on

Plus, I hate to say this because it means I'm going to have to actually think again, but guardian's starting to sound reasonable lately. It's damned evil of him to, it's almost as if he expects me to constantly reevaluate my proposed targets.

In the end what I say at this point won't matter too much, because there's a deadline that's going to prevent starting new wagons today. And while I can't be certain about Albert, I am certain that I don't want a no-lynch. I'd put the odds a bit over 30%, but perhaps less than 50%. I figure about 45%.

[Shteven]

It's probably nothing useful, but I find it interesting how when the wagons are low, everyone's pushing, and now that the wagons are high, everyone's saying both albert/YB are probably town. Not a scumtell, and they're probably right, but it just seems funny. It should be noted that I agree with the feeling.

I'll take minor note of Glork's post #1334. Jack mentioned the guardian/YB wagons, and glork then quotes it as guardian/yb/shteven. I realize you think I'm scum, but claiming it yourself is enough, you don't have to add my "wagon" (which I don't feel was ever much of a wagon) to other people's quotes. You even put my name first, tsk tsk.

On my initial read of these last pages, I was considering switching to YB. But somehow, I just don't feel it anymore. It's probably due to some of the people on the wagon (guardian) but then there's other people on there who I do like (MoS). It may be a bad idea to vote for wagons based on overall scumminess of voters, but on that criteria, I'd rather be on albert's wagon, so I'll stay there for today.

[Shteven]

I was summarizing. To be a bit more complete, I don't like Glork, Guardian, or Albert voting for YB. Jack/hungry could go either way.

I'm not glad to see MBL on Albert either, but these are both 8 people wagon, and I guarantee you there's at least one scum on each. I feel there's more scum on Yogurt, thus making him more likely town. A bit indirect, but there's the reasoning.

Also, before I forget, I want to say that I was suspicious of Glork well before he made the case on me and I used that to claim he was more likely to be scum. As I've said, that's not going to be very helpful on day one since the chances of being right are too low, but I still don't see any logical fallacy in it. It's just very difficult to ever be that good. So when you asked for people's suspicions, don't write mine off so quickly.

[Shteven]

I was a bit alarmed at the speed of guardian votes coming in, but when we got to the vote count and he's only at 3, that's not so bad. I'm still just going to FOS: Guardian for now, because it's basically just a repeat of day 1 information and I need to analyze day 2 information before I cast a real vote.

A major source of my uncertainty is being caught off guard by MOS. I didn't see him as scum. I'm not quite sure which posts Glork was referring to, so I'll go and look and for those. I haven't given an exhaustive list of all the people I think are town, so if I only responded to MOS when prompted, it's because he looked town. Sadly, I was wrong about that.

TCS: The SK hitting scum would increase Glork's chance of being the SK, but the probability increase is really very negliable. We can't even assume that the SK was intentionally targeting scum, he may have thought that MOS was town.

One other thing I'd like to point out is that there's 0 to 1 vigilantes. Meaning we can't assume there actually is one. Not having a vigilante kill indicates we either don't have one, or they are waiting for more solid information. It's entirely reasonable that they didn't feel certain enough to use it night 1, but don't sound so certain there is one.

[Shteven]

Checking over the thread for where it was that Glork asked me about MoS, this is what I found:

Glork wrote:
What do you think of players such as MBL? MoS?

MBL I haven't been able to get much of a read on, which is odd, since he has been active. I'd have to reread. MoS strikes me as town, plus I like his avatar.

I guess the take home lesson is that voting for people's avatars is a horrible way to build trust.

MBL was my #2 choice for day 1 lynch, and MoS is now found scum. I've never been too keen on Glork, and now he's asking me to rate his scum buddies? Might be too opportunistic of a read, but it doesn't sit well with me. I can't be certain about MBL (although I did get more certain about him as the day went on then in the post that's quoted above), but Glork's pretty consistently rubbed me the wrong way.

As it's been said that your vote provides information to everyone else who is watching votes, I'm going to go ahead and see if we can't get something going.

Vote: Glork

I'm still keeping a close eye on Guardian, but I'd like to discuss more than just one person during day 2, so let's not develop tunnel vision.

[Shteven]

I will say that I do like Glork's last post. I agree that you should respond to each attack against you, and have no problem with being perceived as defensive. The last line is a bit condescending, yes, but that doesn't mean it's scum anymore than it's frustrated town.

One thing that was definitely wrong is accusing me of role hunting, though. People were talking about vig kills, why didn't we have one, etc. I was simply trying to say that we may very well not have a vig, so don't depend on it. I didn't even give the full list of possible cases, which is unlike me. I should have also mentioned that the vig's kill could have been doc protected, or (as I think someone else mentioned) a double kill and LML just reported the first one. These are both unlikely, but I usually like to include unlikely cases for completeness.

In summary though, there's nothing wrong with saying that we may not have a vig. We may not have a doctor. We may not have any cops (alive). We had one, who died, and we could have had 0, 1, or 2 in total. I don't even know how you'd go about trying to find someone with a power role, but mentioning that they may not exist isn't going to out them. I'm not expecting any response to this from anyone. Merely a reminder.

P.S. I will certainly say that we do need to raise the bar on making cases. This isn't day 1 anymore, and I'll follow up with some better detail on Glork sometime. Past midnight on a work night here already

[Shteven]

To clarify, I liked post #1490.

His previous post 1478 was the one that talked about role hunting.

[Shteven]

I'm thinking I should revert to guardian. The case against him is stronger, and if guardian is scum, then it's a black mark which we can use to get Glork next. He was my favorite target for the majority of day one, which I mentioned several times. I wish I had been more determined to see him lynched. Hindsight is 20/20, they say.

The case for Guardian:

He was consistently trying to hop wagons to find one that stuck. Starting on page 9 he placed the third vote on BM. Trying to build a wagon that started to get traction? He also did some considerable jumping afterwards. In total, he's voted for Glork, MBL, BM, N9V, BM, Shteven, TCS, Albert, Shteven, BM, Shteven, Yogurt, BM, inHimshallibe. Repeated wavering, and eager to jump around. The first one was a joke, but afterwards they all appeared serious, or at least as serious as he has been.

MoS's "save" of guardian has already been mentioned. This one falls to whether or not you think MoS would be that straightforward; if not, it's sadly WIFOM. I put some stock into this. Securing a mislynch for any day is worth the risk, in my mind. Perhaps not as much day 1, though, as lynches are likely to fail already; but all it takes is ~2 non-mafia lynches early on and the game is solidly in the mafia's camp. Night kills can still interfere, if you get lucky as we have.

I'll pick up the case on glork for day 3, I think. That is, if Guardian turns out to be scum. I've become undecided on Glork for now; I think his alignment will probably match Guardian's.

Unvote. Vote: Guardian

[Shteven]

By my unofficial count, that should put guardian at 6 votes, or -2 from lynch. IE, any more voters be very sure what you're doing.

Would be a good time to claim

[Shteven]

Some recent thoughts: Guardian's claim I'd put at around 40% likelihood. However, it's increasing his chances of being NK'ed, so I don't think we need to waste a lynch.

Thoughts on recent posts: Glork was a bit overboard on NK analysis. I haven't been very comfortable with him most of this game. Would support a lynch.

Inhim's comments about guardian claiming early are -entirely- uncalled for since he was the one who put him at -1. I probably shouldn't have even put him at -2; I placed the vote (had the post typed up) and then went back to count the vote, only then realizing it was -2. That said, I realized that while still previewing the post, and I went ahead with it. It didn't seem too forward at the time, but the -1 that followed it up was too early.

I don't think breadcrumbing really proves much, and it seems like a fairly risky move to make. Would be safer to do if you were scum...Just saying Not really much proof in this idea though.

AE's got something worth going for; everyone's said time and time again that the SK is probably laying low, but we haven't really talked much about people laying low. I'm not sure if you can bring him out of hiding though, he's been gone for a long time. I hope you can

In a complete 180 degree turn from the last paragraph, the YB as SK is also interesting. He's certainly NOT been lying low, although he had a pretty good reason to kill MoS. I really don't know how I'd even begin to assign a probability to this, though.

I'll

Unvote

for now.

I'm considering either inhim or glork; I'll get back to you tommorow on that one...

[Shteven]

I'm also not really big of Meta game defenses. I know I'm not about to re-read other games, and I'm sure that most other player's won't either. You get to claim a point that no one will bother to verify, and so it just stands unchallenged.

Yesterday I wasn't so sure if I should follow through with Glork or guardian, but today they're both looking like good choices. Still, I'm going to with my initial choice of guardian.

Vote: Guardian

[Shteven]

I've decided to do some fun digging for guardian quotes...these should be simple enough:

Post 468, page 19:

YB, to be honest, my logic was hypocritical and scummy as hell. :[. I need to take a step back from this game, I will think and post later tonight.

Certainly takes a bit more effort to plan a strategy for scum, after all, so many people to fool...
Post 609:

Also, I would like to note that I think all the arguments made that claimed Guardian was a hypocrite (even though you tricked him into believing it himself) as bullshit. TCS attacked BM for being scummy on purpose, and then did it himself. THAT is hypocrisy. Guardian attacked TCS for his hypocritical actions. He did not have a problem with people acting scummy on purpose, just those who preach against it then don't follow their own advice. That is NOT being a hypocrite.

Note this is mastermind of sin, aka, our only confirmed scum. Guardian replies, fully quoting the above post, and then adds (Post 621):

Well, the thing is, I was acting scummy on purpose. Then I said that TCS acting scummy on purpose himself and preaching against BM doing so is hypocritical. So, I was acting scummy on purpose myself, and chastising someone for chastising someone for acting scummy on purpose. So, me acting scummy on purpose wasn't hypocritical, it was me attacking TCS, when the attack on TCS itself was the same behavior that I was attacking TCS for. If I am still wrong on this and Glork tricksy'd me, let me know. Thanks for defending me though <3.

Which I think is indicating a pretty good Guardian/MoS connection, and there's a lesser link to Glork as well.

So the summary is he knows he's scum, and he's linked to our good friends MoS/Glork, also scum.

[Shteven]

On the contrary, Shteven, citing those games must almost

necessarily

mean that I'm telling the truth, because if

ANY

player in here had read/played that game, they could go "no, Glork is lying; he played well in that game."

I'll believe that when I see at the minimum of 3 people vouch for each meta-gaming point. That way at least one of them has to be town. Skill of game play is not an objective thing. I can't just read a game and say "Ok glork, you scored 74 this game. Not bad, but keep working on it and you could be in the 80's soon!" How well someone did is a lot more complicated than that. Plus, you'd have to spend at least several hours reading in order to pass a judgment. I assume someone here was probably in one of those games with you, but no one has actually vouched for this, so they remain empty claims to me right now. Like I said, if several people all mentioned that the games are exactly like you mentioned, that would lend the claim strength,

but I have never seen this happen in a game, ever.

They simply tend to hang. There is too much work involved. And I am sure you know this. There's that blasted burden of proficiency again, right?

[Shteven]

Glork: Well, that's certainly more consistent with day 1 now

As far as re-voting guardian, it's that I became less and less convinced of his claim. I may have let inhim (someone I don't trust much) have too much sway on my thoughts, I'll admit.

Really, the main reason I unvoted him was because I figured he'd be night killed. I didn't give this much thought when I re-voted him, and perhaps I was too hasty. It doesn't seem to be going anywhere, and frankly I've been having doubts about my reads on several people in this game. I realize it's early, and it's not as if I was the only one wrong about Albert, but I really don't want to be wrong twice.

I agree that one of Shteven/Glork/Inhim are scum, it's just not me. Possibly two; but again, I'm not one of them. Probably just one of them, anyways.

[Shteven]

Also, TCS's vote for me was accompanying a strawman argument; countering him would have no effect. We have 0, 1, or 2 doctors. We'd have to have two doctors counterclaim, when there's a very real chance there aren't two games in the setup, even if guardian isn't really one of them.

This doesn't mean he is lying, it just means that a counterclaim is obviously harmful to the town and thus would never happen.

Go back to Glork now

[Shteven]

EBWOP: ...a very real chance there aren't two

doctors

in the game...

Not games in the setup. d'oh.

[Shteven]

Just a minor point; if the number of doctors was chosen randomly (which I doubt) then there would be a 33% chance of there being another doctor. This is assuming that guardian is a doctor. Not something that I believe, of course.

[Shteven]

I'd like to hear from TCS. He was initially trying to lynch Glork, a wagon which isn't as popular as it should be. He's expressed a lot of doubts about Inhim's alignment as well.

But then he voted me because my vote is on a claimed doctor. He seemed to have a problem because it wasn't countered; I've mentioned since then that a counter-claim would make no sense in this game. TCS, are you still using that reason to vote me, is it something else, or will you reconsider your vote?

[Shteven]

Basically, the scummier a person appears, the more votes they should have. This is a big picture idea, without much detail. So I think you look scummier than the amount of votes you have.

Really, this is so obvious it borders on content-free. Why did you ask? Do you want to me to state my case, or are you wasting time? We have gone back and forth extensively on day 1, but I'm always up for more

[Shteven]

Hmmm. It appears I answered too quickly. You're right. This is the Let's make a deal Paradox.

I should stress that it's only 50/50

if you believe guardian

. Otherwise, no additional information is available, and it's still 33/33/33.

For more on let's make a deal: http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a3_189.html

[Shteven]

EBWOP: if you go to the link, you can see that a lot of people are confused by this; even the answerer gets it wrong the first time. His second answer is correct. In other words, read on a bit.

[Shteven]

The word paradox came from this website: http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/L ... aDeal.html

which is what I was reading when I checked to make sure I was wrong. it's actually the first site google returns when you search for "let's make a deal" (no quotes in search)

[Shteven]

Grrr...it's the second page. Either way

[Shteven]

Activity does seem to have dropped off a bit, yes.

What I'd like to know, though, is what "special" information are we expected to use for day 2 cases? We have one confirmed scum, so links to MOS are useful, but these links are a matter of opinion, much like "vibes". I can't build a simple, conclusive, logical case against anyone. Can you? It's based on what I feel is accurate, but I don't know how I'm expected to get a solid case going today.

I feel that Guardian and glork would be the best choices. There are some others who are close. Day 2 cases should be a bit stronger than day 1, but really I don't see how anyone could be positive. Maybe I've tried to push to hard, maybe I haven't Sometime over the next few days I'll lay out the cases I can make. No promises they'll be awesome, though.

[Shteven]

I was expecting to say Guardian, inhim, and sarc.

Guardian I've been talking about a lot, and will assume that it was sufficent. I could outline the case later, but I think you wanted to get a wider view than hear just guardian.

Inhim, on a re-read of his posts, looked pretty good. I don't know if this is because he's being all nice and townie, or if he's just after the same people I'm after. It's one of those "enemies of my enemies must be town" kind of things. He did turn around from his initial "not buying Glork's case" to end up voting me, but I'm not convinced this is a plot instead of an error. It could be distancing, wanting to make a "second" case against me and not follow glork, but that's not much to go on alone.

Sarc hasn't been very helpful; most of his posts seem to be humorous in intent rather than informative. He also came into the game saying "Let's follow glork" but didn't vote me. He votes guardian, then switches to me.

Really, it wouldn't be so troubling if it didn't seem like this was the standard formula. Here's Shteven's guide to playing mafia 64:

Join game. Immediately mention you have no intention of following Glork. Post a bunch of stuff, then change your mind and vote Shteven.

It's worked for Sarc, Inhim, and guardian...any other takers?

So to summarize:

guardian - likely scum; don't buy his claim; only reason to not vote him is if you hope he'll be night killed instead. In that sense, you could give him a day.

inhim- Seems alright, but I really don't like his following the I'm-not-Glork-but-I-hate-Shteven train. Also, he recently overreacted to a single vote on him, but that can go either way.

sarc - also a fan of the I'm not glork lynch shteven strategy, and also hasn't contributed much else. He did replace fairly late in day 1, so perhaps we should give him more time.

There's a lot of people who used to post and haven't been lately, or just never posted much. These people I think I have poor reads on:

HackerHuck
Battle Mage
Jack (sorry, your posts are just so short )
Mana (new, give him some time)

[Shteven]

A small clarification about inhim: I kind of jumbled my thoughts together into a blob, without really sorting out the relevance. I mentioned I thought he looked good on the re-read of his posts, but the I'm-not-glork fos: shteven pattern shows. It's a huge stretch to say he's scum off that. He hasn't been pushing it like sarc is/guardian has at times. I would vastly prefer guardian/glork and even sarc (who's behind the other two) before inhim. I mentioned him because AE wanted to see 3 targets.

In hindsight I'd probably put MBL around inhim also, but it's a vibe thing and MBL has at different times struck me as both very helpful and very unhelpful. In either case, both of them are very low concerns and more of a "I'm watching you for day 5" kind of thing. I'm not looking for much action on them unless someone can point out something I've missed.

I may be making too much out of the players linking themselves to glork/shteven pattern, but it has my name in it, so it's something I am watching for. Let me know if you think this has any merit or if it's just useless speculation.

Overview of today's action would be guardian/glork followed by Sarc followed by some lurkers followed by inhim/mbl followed by everyone else. They're down low. Let's pretend there's 2 lurkers that list would be 7 people and is therefore certain to contain multiple town, even if I managed to snag all 3 scum and sk on it (which I am probably missing about one of). Keep this in mind.

[Shteven]

First, one additional thing, Yosarian2's above post about inhim is valuable. I still like inhim (relatively speaking), but that post was a negative point. The other point against him, which I mention below, is the -1 vote on guardian. This puts him on the radar, but not too highly overall.

And for the rest of the post, I intend to mercilessly mock Glork for:

Shteven, have you nothing to say about Guardian's claim?

So away we go! All posts here will by shteven-only post count, to save me time.

Some recent thoughts: Guardian's claim I'd put at around 40% likelihood. However, it's increasing his chances of being NK'ed, so I don't think we need to waste a lynch.

Since then I'd lower the chance to around 25-30%, but I think this quote is quite obviously intended to be talking about Guardian's claim. His chances of being night killed are still a valid day 2 defense, and a reason I'd be willing to lynch someone else.

About inhim putting guardian at -1 for the claim to come out:

Inhim's comments about guardian claiming early are -entirely- uncalled for since he was the one who put him at -1. I probably shouldn't have even put him at -2; I placed the vote (had the post typed up) and then went back to count the vote, only then realizing it was -2. That said, I realized that while still previewing the post, and I went ahead with it. It didn't seem too forward at the time, but the -1 that followed it up was too early.

My entire post 51 is on guardian, although not his claim specfically, so let's move on to post 53, which I'll simply quote in it's entirity:

Glork: Well, that's certainly more consistent with day 1 now Wink

As far as re-voting guardian, it's that I became less and less convinced of his claim. I may have let inhim (someone I don't trust much) have too much sway on my thoughts, I'll admit.

Really, the main reason I unvoted him was because I figured he'd be night killed. I didn't give this much thought when I re-voted him, and perhaps I was too hasty. It doesn't seem to be going anywhere, and frankly I've been having doubts about my reads on several people in this game. I realize it's early, and it's not as if I was the only one wrong about Albert, but I really don't want to be wrong twice.

I agree that one of Shteven/Glork/Inhim are scum, it's just not me. Smile Possibly two; but again, I'm not one of them. Probably just one of them, anyways.

(Hint: the one is Glork)

My post 57 talks about guardian's claim being inherently un-counterable, as well as asking for more information from TCS. TCS, come to think of it, would be an excellent candidate for one of those "lurker" votes I mentioned in my last post.

I'd like to hear from TCS. He was initially trying to lynch Glork, a wagon which isn't as popular as it should be. He's expressed a lot of doubts about Inhim's alignment as well.

But then he voted me because my vote is on a claimed doctor. He seemed to have a problem because it wasn't countered; I've mentioned since then that a counter-claim would make no sense in this game. TCS, are you still using that reason to vote me, is it something else, or will you reconsider your vote?

I don't believe he's responded to this yet.

I feel that Guardian and glork would be the best choices.

Should be able to infer something here about Guardian's claim...Choices meaning lynch choices.

So to summarize:

guardian - likely scum; don't buy his claim; only reason to not vote him is if you hope he'll be night killed instead. In that sense, you could give him a day.

To summarize this post, WTF Glork? Are you reading this thread? This has happened in the past, where you respond to me but don't really seem to be talking directly about what I have been talking about. This one is just so obvious that I'm at a real loss to explain how it could happen. The others were much more subtle. In fact, this is coming very close to making me want to switch back to voting you. I'm sorry to everyone else about the volume of quotes, but I wanted to underscore how absurd Glork's question was, especially with the vastly decreased post count lately, it should be trivial to find out what I think about guardian, most of my posts are about him.

Glork: can you explain why you're voting for me if you cannot hear what I am saying in thread? Please be advised that at least one vote, mine, hinges upon this. I hope a few more will also

[Shteven]

I'd like to hear from TCS. I've asked him a few things directly which I hope won't be lost in the noise. His last post (4 days ago) promised a re-read and asked for time, so still a couple days would be fine, but please get around to it

I'm also curious what he thinks of recent Glork since he's been one of very few to share my distrust of Glork.

[Shteven]

Glork, do you have any response to my post 1709? You know, the one with about 5 examples of me having already answered the question that you recently asked me?

Inhim/Yos's recent exchange confuses me. Not one way or the other, but it just seems vague and confusing.

I think HackerHuck has a valid point about active lurkers. Can't hurt to look at a few more people today

[Shteven]

I'm-not-glork fos: shteven pattern

What the hell does this mean?

I mean people who came into the game by saying something that distanced them from glork, and then proceeded to follow him anyways. Where by "follow him" I mean they are attacking/voting me.

Glork, do you have any response to my post 1709? You know, the one with about 5 examples of me having already answered the question that you recently asked me?

That post looks like something scum would come up with because they can't find something actually suspicious.

He asked me the question; I didn't bring it up. He asked me what I felt about guardian's claim.

I have already answered this question roughly five times.

He has also explicitly stated that he doesn't feel like answering AE's question, but apparently neither of these bother you. They bother me. I'd like a response from him.

IDK, I kind of think it would be cool to play a game so long that a separate thread has to be made for later days.

Well, I expected a lot more from your re-read than that. In fact, I'd call this intentional lurking unless your informative post is coming right up...

[Shteven]

Oh, and I almost forgot:

Unvote Guardian

.

I'm still considering who to move to, it's a toss up between going back to old favorites or trying to pester people who are lurking in a bad way. TCS, I'm expecting something of substance from you rather soon.

[Shteven]

Yos: I went back and reread his posts and they didn't sound as scummy as people had made him out to be. It's more of a reversal than trying to go both ways, I don't think I made that very clear previously.

[Shteven]

I'm going to test AE's theory. Since her question got answered when she voted for glork, and Glork still hasn't answered my question,

Vote: Glork

.

Should you happen to have forgotten the question, I want to know why you asked me how I felt about guardian's claim when I have been talking about that for most of the last few pages.

[Shteven]

I do not negotiate with terrorists.

Your avoidance of simple questions and baseless name calling is noted.

[Shteven]

Your continued reaching to find any excuse to vote me is noted.

I've had plenty of reasons before, I'm not looking for any more. I cannot see why someone like you would fail to answer such a straightforward question. It's not like you and I haven't had long discussions in the past, clearly you know how to post. I think you're trying to hide from your mistake. I think you wanted to make me look bad, and didn't have any real reason, so you tried to make it look like I had either missed something or were hoping I'd say something scummy you could use against me. In other words, you've already reached your conclusion and you're looking for evidence to back it up. And that, my friend, is backwards.

Moving on, why do I have 5 votes without a logical case laid out against me? From what I recall, people have mostly been mentioning vibes. Glork's got his day 1 stuff, but that doesn't really hold water in my (biased, yet much more informed!) opinion.

[Shteven]

I'm still somewhat suspiscious of Glork, but I'm willing to let that slide since he's Glork, and if he's mafia/SK he's just going to win because no one is going to have the stones to string him up.

You may have missed roughly ALL of my posts. They're in the thread somewhere

[Shteven]

It's called "YB is scum jumping on Spryte because he doesn't want himself or Shteven lynched today."

Doesn't anyone else think this comes off as link Shteven to anyone who looks scummy whenever possible? YB hops wagons, obvious conclusion: Shteven is scum??? Excuse me, but can I get a WTF? He's claiming certainty on no less than 3 people's alignment just to take a stab at me.

How is it that I'm the one accused of reaching in this game? Seriously, how does he get away with this?

Does anyone else see a connection between me and YB? I don't recall having anything significant between us, and although he's not my first choice, I think there's a decent chance he's scum. Still, see above, vote Glork.

[Shteven]

Pretty sure you mislynched Albert instead of lynching YBscum.

I wasn't the only one. There were 8 people on that list; are you claiming there was 8 scum? Oh, and by the way, MoS wasn't voting albert, so it wasn't even half mafia; at most 3 were there.

Secondly, you're assuming YB is scum, which has yet to be proven. He may be, but I'm not convinced at this point.

Thirdly, didn't you spend a good portion of day one arguing against the burden of proficency? And here you are, using it against me?

He's reaching, contradicting himself, and casually refers to multiple people's alignments as certain, usually to build a weak point against me. Why doesn't any else put their vote on him for such horrible play? I feel like screaming here. Isn't this worth a few pressure votes at least?

[Shteven]

Thanks for finally responding. It's a pretty good overall response, I like that you're finally being more transparent about recent happenings in the game. However, forgive me for nitpicking it, there's just a lot of little details that are wrong.

I guess I'll respond to the Shteven/Guardian thing. I think I've gleaned enough information from refusing to explain myself (namely that Shteven is reaching, and YB is having some kind of sadistic love affair with Shteven).

So by

refusing to explain yourself

, it caused another player to think you have ulterior motives (aka, are scum). But instead of being reasonable, this is

reaching

?

You then correctly quote both my initial 40% and the later 25-30%. Note that the 25-30% figure was updated; it is more accurate to explain how I currently feel. Yet for the rest of your post, you continue to use the 40% figure. I suppose it's possible that posts like:

As far as re-voting guardian, it's that I became less and less convinced of his claim.

Leads one to think I've gone back to the 40% figure. </sarcasm> In any case, I've since stopped voting him. This is because, as I've also already stated, "His chances of being night killed are still a valid day 2 defense".

I'm not sure what's not clear about my stance on guardian, and I'm wondering if you even noticed I'm not voting for guardian any longer, but for Glork. I assume you know this, although it wasn't addressed in your post.

Your posts always manage to sound reasonable on their own, but somehow, they don't ever quite sync up to what's happening in the thread at the moment. They're either a few pages late, or they seem to come from a parallel game, which looks kind of like this one, only slightly different.

P.S. TCS: You've had your doubts about Glork in the past but you've been fairly silent about it now. What do you think of my case, and are you up for a Glork lynch today? And anyone else?

[Shteven]

And for his earlier post:

But for clarification, just for you, Shteven:
I think that YB has been scummy.
I think that you have been scummy.
Yesterday, you voted Albert instead of YB.
Today, YB seems to be deflecting attention to Spryte and away from you.

Let's number these points 1 through 4.

1) opinion; you're entitled to it.
2) opinion, you're entitled to it.
3) As did 7 other people; this is rather week by itself.
4) opinion. I can't control the actions of others. If all of the surviving players were attacking me I would already be lynched.

[Shteven]

EBWOP: I just wanted to mention that point 3 is exactly what Glork calls the burden of proficiency. Maybe he's reversed his opinion about it after swearing against it all of day 1. Also, our one known scum wasn't on the albert wagon...He was voting for YB, just as Glork was.

Known scum vs "I think YB is scum". I'm not claiming this is proof that Glork is scum (as the same logic applies...there's 8 people on YB's wagon, they can't all be scum) but it just goes to show how poor a reason this is. It applies to everyone in the game, one wagon or another.

[Shteven]

Gee. It's fucking CRAZY how I base my suspicions on MY PERCIEVED OPINIONS OF OTHER PLAYERS' SCUMMINESS AND INTERACTIONS.

"3) You showed a clear preference for lynching Albert over YB."

This made me laugh. You'll vote based on your opinions, but I voted on my opinion -- on day 1 no less -- for the other wagon, so I'm scum. It's like kindergarten finger pointing.

My overall point is that you're allowed to voice opinions. I'd never hold that against anyone, it's what you are supposed to do. It's when you try to sell your opinions as fact, and present a hard case based on nothing but "I think he's scummy!" that it's wrong. You've been pushing hard for my lynch on nothing more than "I think he's scum and he was on a different wagon from me day one". Despite the fact that your wagon was the one with known scum on it

You've hidden information, are reaching entirely too much for my lynch, and are trying to control discussion. There's nothing wrong with leading discussion, but all too often you tell people that they should really not be doing what they were trying to do. There's a difference between contributing to the town and clamping down on it's activities, and in my opinion, you're over the line. I haven't liked the majority of your posts.

Several of your posts sound self-righteous and hysterical; especially the one quoted above. Is bolding and italicizing the word CRAZY the best defense you can think of? Scare people away with dramatic voice effects?

[Shteven]

@glork: I isolated it because the other points are entirely reasonable. They're your opinions, there's nothing I can do about that or reason to change it. Point three was the only point based on a logical premise. The others used the word "think".

What I'm claiming is that you are pushing very, very hard on your feelings. On the ever popular claim of "vibes". You're entitled to them, I just don't like the way you're going about it.

[Shteven]

They're your opinions, there's nothing I can do about that or reason to change it.

EBWOP: grammar ftw: "...nothing I can do about that nor do I have any reason to change it."

[Shteven]

Your last post being 1806? Don't see any questions there. Post 1802 and 1800 are talking to inhim...Repeat the question?

[Shteven]

I more or less answered that here:

What I'm claiming is that you are pushing very, very hard on your feelings. On the ever popular claim of "vibes". You're entitled to them, I just don't like the way you're going about it.

Figuring out one person's alignment is a very difficult task. To make a claim based on being correct about two people's alignment is even harder. Also, the "link" that I didn't vote for YB is shared by no less than 10 people (including myself and YB, so perhaps 9?). So it's linking YB to over half the game. This is what makes it sound so ridiculous to me.

But given that the other points are entirely reasonable, wouldn't that make point 3 seem reasonable, too? Are you trying to deny that context is relevant when looking at Point 3?

The other points are matter of opinion, though, and you really can't build a logical case based on opinions. Adding one weak logical point does not convert the opinions (1, 2, 4) to logic. And when that one point (3) is accusing 10 players, and

incorrectly predicts the one known scum

, it's safe to say that logical point is...wrong

You could call your points circumstantial evidence, but it's not a solid case, and from your rhetoric, I think you're trying to act like you have a solid case. It just screams reaching to me.

[Shteven]

I've no love lost for sarcastro, but I do have to wonder about two votes without any reason

I'm trying to let the thread breathe, I think me and glork went a bit overboard in terms of post length (although I stand behind what I've said!), but I will weigh in more tommorow.

Btw, ManaSpryte is a man.

[Shteven]

Wow, the difference between my reading of the thread and everyone's analysis is so profound I just have no clue what to think. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Or you could tell us what you think and help out the town.

Especially since I asked specifically what you thought of Glork a few pages ago and I don't recall you answering.

[Shteven]

except that returning next saturday will put you

past

the already announced deadline, Sarcastro.

I haven't liked Sarc's limited posting and I'm perfectly willing to after the unhelpful for day 2.

Vote: Sarcastro

I'd consider manaspryte to be equally good in the non-helpful-lurkers category. By the way, manaspryte is Male...even says so to the left of his (rare) posts...come on people

[Shteven]

Sarc's posts have always been short, and full of significant claims ("Why isn't Shteven dead yet") while never posting a case or supporting evidence. It seems like he's trying to lead the town down wrong paths or at least confuse discussion. And then he promptly vanishes again.

As for other lurkers...they don't seem as hostile to useful discussion. They aren't pushing it forward either, but they aren't impeding. Of course, this could just be more skilled lurking, but I don't have any real reads on them.

TCS has been bothering me lately, it seems like he's being combative for no reason, but he has been and hopefully well continue to be more useful than sarc.

Hacker should post more, but is usually helpful when he does. Yos is about the same. YB used to post a lot but seems to have slowed down a bit today; don't think this is too bad on it's own though.

And of course I have no idea about battle mage because he's just plain gone

[Shteven]

It's a strange turn of events when me and Glork are voting for the same person. Obviously, I have only myself to blame as he voted first, but I'm ok with it. With this many people still alive, it's pretty safe to say any wagon that reaches a lynch the first 2-3 days will have some scum (and many non-scum) on it.

Not intended as an attack on Glork, just a wry observation.

[Shteven]

I like the last several post's style. We've got 4 days, and two are weekend days, which some people won't read much during. I think our best bet now is to have everyone state why they're voting for who they are. Briefly, just a line or two. Then any other wagons you'd be willing to support if it swings that way. Give us something to look back on, and help us get organized.

I'm still happy with voting Sarcastro.

I'd be glad to go to back to Glork if it picks up steam. I don't think there's much pressure I could add to it that I haven't already, it's just a matter of if people agree or don't. You do have to admit that it would be the mother lode of informational lynches, right?

I'm shelving the case on Guardian. Maybe another day, but no point right now.

I'm not very fond of YB but I also can't find many reasons to defend him. If he's the most popular (and he's definitely up there atm) then I hope everyone's right.

I don't like BM getting away with announcing a re-read; but he certainly can't finish one in 4 days (well, probably not) so I think he'll get away with it today. Worse things have happened, and I intend to hold him accountable for it tommorow, should we both survive. This means if I die it's totally his fault. Oh, and if I die

totally lynch Glork.

Looking over the player list I'm starting to get worried about all the people who I just don't feel very much of anything about their alignment. This post got long enough as it is, though!

[Shteven]

I see a couple good switches to sarc - Keep it up!

[Shteven]

Tell me about it, AE. I'm not very fond of my company on this wagon, so I'm really just crossing my fingers at this point.

And no matter what happens day 2, I think night 2 will be very interesting.

[Shteven]

I'm going to have to go over the last few pages of D2 more closely, and I'll go over guardian's posts on D3 as well...but I just wanted to respond briefly to his main claim.

I'm really not sure how you can be so adamant about me trying to lead an intentionally failing wagon, and being disappointed that it succeeded. I did my best to drive it forward, calling for additional votes and thanking those who did vote,

which you even noted

yet somehow tried to twist it to support your own case.

The case against Sarc wasn't one of him seeming strongly scum, it was one of him seeming extremely weakly pro-town. Granted, not the best way to run a wagon, but it was convincing enough for me and thankfully enough of the town. Credit goes to AE who was on him through all of his replacements; I think that may have something to do with why she was killed off tonight. I will be doing a re-read of what her other choices were; there's a chance she may have been onto the SK, since the SK had her killed. This will be a bit of a stretch, though may be interesting.

The following is speculation: Guardian putting the final vote on Sarc does suggest he's not scum. It could be him trying to appear that way and figuring Sarc wouldn't last, but for now I'm willing to say it was a legit non-scum vote. However, we only had one kill tonight; and guardian was probably the highest profile night kill choice in the game. I think that Guardian did in fact get doctor protection from the mafia kill. The question is, then, is there really two doctors, or is the real doctor hiding out there, and protected Guardian the SK? I haven't yet re-read AE, but I don't think she was to pro-guardian. Correct me if I'm wrong.

It's also entirely possible there are two doctors and neither are guardian, and that one or both protected him. In which case, he's likely the SK (but could not be).

I'll vote after re-checking what I mentioned above. Right now, it's likely going to be guardian.

TCS, I also have doubts about you. I will get to them in a follow up post.[/b]

[Shteven]

Shteven: AE said she was absolutely not willing to lynch Guardian. Try again, mate.

I said I still had to reread. And I find it odd you wouldn't post what she said when you went to the trouble to say it wasn't what I expected. She first gave a long list of people who could be the SK, but followed it up with a pretty long post detailing a case for MBL being the SK.

I'm not saying it's proof, obviously it's circumstantial, but if you think it's worth anything, I'd say it would point to MBL. This tell would be very easy to setup to incriminate MBL though.

[Shteven]

So Glork quoted one line from AE, but then missed her later post where she much more fully explains herself:

Ugh. I'm 100% opposed to lynching a claimed doctor on Day Two, but...you're [Guardian] pushing it. First there was your sudden "lynch Mana now!!" insistence, even though you kept vote-hopping, and now this daykill list has me cringing (as does calling just about everyone "average scummy"), and...now (following, I might add, me saying I was less certain about Mana), you're saying you don't think Mana's evil after all, despite going after him so strongly? Did you not bother reading the thread then? (Also, could you be specific about what you found? It feels to me like you just want a reason to stop pressing him.)

Gah. I'm really uncertain about my vote right now--not because of Sarc
(though him being on V/LA is sucky), but because of my co-waggoners. (Specifically Shteven and Guardian. MBL wants anyone dead, so...)

She really didn't like guardian, but wasn't willing to lynch him because of his claim. With his survival night 2, the time that his claim will protect him for should be counting down. Perhaps not today, but maybe day 4...

And shame on Glork for selective and misleading quoting. You really should know better and present a full case. I'll

FOS: Glork

even though it's probably redundant by now

She didn't really trust me either, but hey, no one's perfect

[Shteven]

Dear, dear TCS:

First, congratulations on being the only person to have ever supported a Glork wagon with the same intensity that I have. Let's look at some day two quotes, shall we? (post numbers for TCS-only posts)

Here's how this is going to work.

unvote, vote: Glork

You can all argue amongst yourselves who is the play for today. I'm done posting until tomorrow.

Rather brash, but ok. He then quotes one of Glork's posts, and mocks it with the simple line:

zomg plz look any ne1 but me

This one's going on a plaque somewhere:

For fucking seriously, man, you are scum. You can throw up all the verbose posts you want to smokescreen that fact, you can accuse me of tunnel vision, you can order me about, you can bemoan the poor play of others, and I can say that every last one of these behaviors is indicative of scum trying to seem pro-town enough to deflect suspiscion away from himself.

I'm sensing a pattern here, anyone else see it? I won't quote the next two, they're more of the same. Day 2 begins to draw to a close, and TCS makes a concession:

I'm keeping my vote on Glork, but at deadline I prefer a Yogurt lynch over a Sarc lynch, and will hop to make it so.

Somewhat Iffy. Yogurt is pretty likely town as we've been narrowing down scum. I don't consider yogurt very scummy right now, although it's possible that I'm wrong. Hindsight is 20/20, and TCS's call could be an honest mistake. It probably isn't, but let's move on. A few posts later he ends up switching as the day comes to an end.

Day ends, Sarc dies, everyone's happy. Well, everyone but scum Day 3 dawns. TCS's first post:

I think now's the time to vote:BillyTwilight.

Can I get a collective WTF?

I want an explanation. Randomly band wagoning people day 3 is not helpful. Your attacks on Glork sound like distancing, especially if you're going to drop them to the side without so much as a mention. Everything Guardian claims about me trying to lead an insincere wagon that I knew would fail against Sarcastro? It's right here folks. TCS knew Glork's wagon would fail; Glork has a reputation for being valuable, and I've already pressed the wagon extensively and failed. TCS saw an opportunity and he took it.

And guardian's completely overlooking it to go after someone he has a personal grudge against, aka, Me. I'm not sure why he wants me dead, either he's scum and knows I'm his foe, or he's sk and doesn't care, or maybe he's delusional, but I'd say it's one of the first two. Guardian, I also want an explanation. Why are you projecting TCS's scum tells onto me?

I'm finishing the game for us all right now*

Vote: TCS

FOS: Glork
FOS: Guardian

I'd be willing to swap TCS for Glork. Honestly, I feel stronger about Glork than TCS; but this new evidence is anti-TCS (as well as implicating Glork) and Glork wagons haven't worked. However, unlike TCS, I won't ignore him because of that. Guardian I'll give a few days still, although I really feel that people shouldn't be giving his claim so much credibility.

*In case I'm wrong it's totally MBL as the SK in the library with the lead pipe. Sorry about that, the whole being wrong part. Honestly I expect I'm right about at least two of the three above. I can't be positive about all three, but I think it's possible I am dead on.

[Shteven]

Shteven, you basically are saying the following:

"there is almost no way Guardian is team scum. however, I think he is lying about being the doctor.... but there was a doctor protection last night -- and Guardian was a likely target.

So... Guardian could be the SK!"

Why do you want to come up with a reason to vote me so badly? What are your reasons besides OMGUS? What, if any, case do you have on me for being an SK?

See my above post, which I wrote at the same time as you wrote yours, so it's not a reply, but rather, some more arguments against you in connection with Glork/TCS.

I do think you have a decent chance of being mafia. I would put you after Glork and TCS, however. The specific reason why you could be SK is exactly what you posted in your post, trying to say it wasn't a reason. It

IS

a reason. Let me break down the exact logic:

FACT: There was only one night kill. It's entirely possible that the mafia submitted a no-kill, but I am considering this extremely unlikely. Therefore:

Assumed: the doctor protected the person the mafia targetted. I'd say this is at least 90% probable.

Assumption: Guardian is the most likely target for doctor protection, being our only claimed power role. This can't be proven, but I'd say it's likely.

Corollary: the chances of their being another doctor in the game to protect guardian INCREASES if guardian lied about his claim. He then wouldn't be using one of the possible doctor slots. However, it's possible there are two doctors. However, this is an increased chance of being Anti-Town.

Conclusion: If guardian was mafia-targeted, then he is not mafia, but is Anti-Town, so he is the SK.

You still have a chance to be mafia, because the above logical argument involves assumptions that you were targeted by the mafia and protected by another doctor. If I could prove people's alignments concretely, there wouldn't be much of a game to mafia, would there?

P.S. This is exactly what I had posted previously, which you quoted and dismissed without ever understanding.

[Shteven]

It would be helpful if manaspryte would comment on my last two posts, and what he thinks of the alignments of the people I've mentioned. Manaspryte tossed a FOS on me the very first post he made, and since then I haven't heard much from him. I'd like to know if he's still suspicious of me, he may be scum with TCS or Glork, if I'm wrong about one of them.

[Shteven]

Okay, here's my question. Am I less likely to get lynched if at this point I actually contribute to the game or if I continue being a lurking ass? Because the last time I stopped lurking in a game, I got immediately lynched.

If that's not going to happen, I will start substantiating stuff. Until then, you should all kindly vote Billy or go about your business.

I realize it's natural to want to survive; I certainly wish to live myself...But it's the greater glory of your team that you should be concerned about. And open discussion is the key to supporting the town. So lurking = scum. Of course, I hope you'll be lynched either way, but I cannot decide that on my own.

[Shteven]

Assumption: Guardian is the most likely target for doctor protection, being our only claimed power role. This can't be proven, but I'd say it's likely.

This assumes there is another doctor and is still not true -- MBL is the "most likely" doctor protection as I am a doctor and protected him.

I do not have to assume that there are two doctors for guardian to have been doctor protected; that is only true if you make the assumption that Guardian is a doctor. This is not critical though, in either case, another doctor is possible. Believing that MBL was doc protected by Guardian is another assumption of you telling the truth. But that may very well be the case.

Quote:
Corollary: the chances of their being another doctor in the game to protect guardian INCREASES if guardian lied about his claim. He then wouldn't be using one of the possible doctor slots. However, it's possible there are two doctors. However, this is an increased chance of being Anti-Town.

Wait what? There are still just as many doctors before I claimed as after I claimed in the game if I'm not a doctor. Assuming I fake claimed, my fake claiming doesn't suddenly remove doctors. This doesn't make sense.

You misunderstood; it decreases the chances of other players being the doctor if you are telling the truth and are in fact a doctor. If you lied, it has no effect, but since no effect is better than a negative effect, the higher chance of you being doctor-protected is if you are not a doctor yourself.

And yes, I do assume in the end that you are anti-town. The point of the case was to show you have a high chance of being the SK. A few of the assumptions suggest being anti-town, but only after you believe two separate assumptions. So I'll admit to that being weak.

Honestly, I'm going to stop talking about this, because I'm really -not- trying to push guardian's case. You were simply related to TCS/Glork, and in that post was about them; but I also wanted to be complete. I am not voting guardian, and I don't intend to today. Let's focus on the other two

And my runner-up for SK is MBL, so guardian's claim of protecting him is quite unnerving.

If I'm only right about 2 of them then I'd say the remaining scum is a lurker. Jack, while not lurking, doesn't post enough content for my tastes, so this counts him.

[Shteven]

I think it may be useful if everyone posted their answers to 1&2 (alive players only, of course!). No posting 3-6

1) TCS/Glork. If I'm wrong about one of them, then it's likely a lurker; ie, one of: Billytwilight, jack, manaspryte. Less likely: yos2, billy, yogurt.

2) Guardian or MBL. Sadly, I can't really choose which.

[Shteven]

I think it may be useful if everyone posted their answers to 1&2 (alive players only, of course!). No posting 3-6

I'd like EVERYBODY to answer Questions 1 and 2 in-thread.

Well I've done a lot of targeted re-reading and I think I'll answer Glork's 'request' now.

Glork's request? Huh? ;P

3) Who are not going to be at all helpful in finding said scum?
{Shteven ....

I guess being the first to agree with AE and drive the Sarcastro wagon is considered being unhelpful? Excuse me, your scum is showing.

[Shteven]

Sorry kenetic I pronounce your name the same as the word, so when it's time to type it, I spell the name how the word is spelled!

Also, I realized I double-listed BT in the lurkers categories...first one, the more likely, should have been BM. Of course now that he's replaced this may change

[Shteven]

EBWOP: I swear I typed Kinetic. That first part up there should be stricken from the record. I must have no idea how to actually spell the word. *cough*

[Shteven]

Disclaimer: I wrote this post last night, before guardian claimed townie. I was planning on editing it some more before posting today, but in the mean time, guardian re-claimed townie. I'm still posting it because I think the information may be useful regarding some of Glork's arguments, and I really want to know why mana chose to protect Glork, as this creates nagging doubt that he may not be mafia (could still be SK). My next post will deal with Guardian as a claimed townie.

Kinetic: Your read on TCS matches mine; I haven't been comfortable with him since...night 0

Back to the doctor scandal:

While it's certainly possible that one of them could be double killed, it's quite unlikely. It's much more likely that they will simply fail to protect each other. Glork makes it sound like we have two doctors and we want them to randomly protect people. But we do not; we have one doctor and one lying scum; the real doctor is the most likely target. Telling the "two" doctors to spread out their protections is just to create a plausible case for when the real doctor is killed by the fake one.

They could both claim to protect each other; but the mafia member/SK has no reason to follow through. Instead, they can just kill the other doctor, who will have no protection, because the by-claim-only doctor lied.

So the next day the scum-claimed doctor just says he protected MBL, Glork, or anyone else they feel like. Then their own group can ensure a kill of the real doctor. You only need one attack to kill the claimed doctor. Talking about double-kills, while possible, is a smoke screen trying to get doctor protection for the scum, ensuring two kills, one of which is our real doctor. I think trying to spread out possible protection targets as wide as possible (and 4 is pretty wide) AND limit future discussion of them is trying to ensure 2 night kills, and one of them being a doctor. This would be scummy-mistake #23 for Glork, by the way.

In short, there is NO reason for them to protect each other. One is a doctor, but the other is lying and won't (can't) return the favor. The third, unclaimed doctor should SILENTLY protect the person he thinks is the true doctor (this would be Manaspryte, to make it easy for you. Also, I'm hoping guardian will be dead by dusk).

The only way that guardian could be a true doctor is if one killing team submitted no night kill, or if ManaSpryte successfully protected Glork. That's it. Both of those are low probabilities. The first is practically nil, the second one is a bit worrying though.

I haven't trusted mana very much this game, but there's no way the mafia would be sacrificing a member when there's only two left on day 3. I can't see a mafia member killing himself off to lynch one townie/sk. He'd be handing the game to the town, which is perfectly fine by me.

Unvote, Vote: Guardian

P.S. Why'd you pick Glork to protect? And while your claim is useful, I'd probably have tried to throw some support behind my anti-guardian arguments, add in that he wasn't night killed, and try to get a non-claim driven lynch before claiming.

For the sake of completeness, mana's protection of Glork increases his chance of being town, although it isn't proof. The mafia kill was blocked by someone, but if we believe mana's claim then there must be an silent "third" doctor who could have protected whoever the mafia really tried to kill. Never let it be said I'm not fair!

[Shteven]

I really wish I had stayed up later (it was already 3am when I was writing that) to get in the fact that Guardian wasn't a doctor before his townie claim.

I'm leaving my vote on guardian. I still hold he's scum who claimed doc, then realizing that the doctor claim was very unlikely and would probably get him killed, tried to downgrade it to the uncounterable townie claim. He obviously won't be claiming scum, after all. I'd be more than happy to hang him already.

[Glork]Even if it's wrong, think of the policy lynch possibilities![/Glork]

In fact the only thing that bothers me is his vote on Sarc. However, I can come up with -many- reasons he'd still be scum, even so.

1) It only takes one 'cleared' mafia member to win the game. Aka, bussing.
2) He could be the SK.
3) He felt that Sarcastro was going to be lynched with or without him. This is possible, someone else could have switched, but it was pretty close to the wire and I do concede his vote was very useful.
4) It could be the case that YogurtBandit is also scum. I don't think he is, but it remains a possibility.

None of those are that likely, but that one of them is the case is enough for me to leave my vote on guardian. The Sarc vote does bother me though.

[Shteven]

I definitely agree that if guardian is scum and not the SK, then YB is the next play. But I don't think that's likely.

I'm happy with either TCS or guardian still. Glork, as much as I hate him (the character in the game, not the player! <3) does have manaspryte's protection implying he's not mafia. Maybe SK, but there's better targets than a maybe SK.

I think it would be great if we could lynch today without needing a deadline to lower the requirements

[Shteven]

Even then, how do you rationalize my claiming, then unclaiming, and NKing MoS and AE -- both of them were very opposed to lynching me, as an SK you most definitely want to keep your buddies around.

WIFOM; as an SK really all you need it is to kill everyone. Who dies isn't that important; if you kill all of your enemies, it's evidence that can be used against you. I've never been the SK, but if I was, I really think I'd just /roll for my targets.

As far as reclaiming townie not proving you're scum - that's true. But lying is anti-town, and I think it should be reacted to as such. I can identify with the desire to personally live, but in the end, it's just not helpful. Even though I believe you thought it was safe, it isn't truly safe, and did out another doctor.

The breadcrumbing really nails your case shut, by the way. Feeling pressured and desperate as a townie and claiming doc at the last second is a mistake; planning a power role claim for self-preservation from day 1 is highly suggestive of being the SK.

Glork:

Yes, I am convinced that Sarc was doomed to a lynch. The reasons for that should be obvious enough, but I'm going to be stubborn and refuse to go through them in detail right now.

Suffice to say that the Mafia probably already knows what I'm talking about.

If the mafia already knows, how about you tell the rest of us town?

General: I agree with Kinetic; guardian's about a 60% chance of SK, low chance of mafia, and even if he's town, the information will be useful. It's not a policy lynch, but it can fall back on policy as an insurance plan. That doesn't change that he's highly likely to be anti-town.

[Shteven]

Suffice to say that the Mafia probably already knows what I'm talking about.

If the mafia already knows, how about you tell the rest of us town?

Btw, does the mafia know because you PM'ed them last night with the reason why you wanted to bus sarc if he got any attention? You know, just saying...

Buried somewhere in the last few pages guardian had a decent point about glork. I'd rather the SK/mafia fight each other at night with cross kills, but lynching each other doesn't hurt much either.

[Shteven]

I've been saying it all game, and it's time to get it going:

Vote: Glork

.

Seriously, his time should have been up long ago. Here's a gem of his from day 3:

I think that HH is very likely Mafia (prolly the last Goon), and that Guardian is the SK. I'm not sure who the Godfather is yet, but after those two are out of the way, we can figure that out.

GG, scums. You've been paragon'd.

Funny, I had HH as the ONLY cleared townie in my mind. I've mentioned I thought he was town several times, although as far as proving the "only cleared townie" part, well, you'll have to wait for my PM to LML to be revealed. I said something to the effect of "I hope and pray that HH isn't scum" ie, because I'd be completely wrong.

Glork also made some comments about guardian not providing info; ie, don't look at his lynch because you may see that I'm scum, so I'll just discount the wagon as a whole. True, it's not a very telling lynch, but let the town look at it themselves, don't tell them there's nothing there ahead of time. He's been directing, aka stifling debate all game, leading people down incorrect directions, and simply hasn't been "paragon"ing anything.

From my posts only post counts:

My post 13:

HackerHuck - You are my hero. You're either very pro-town or the best scum I've seen. I really hope I'm not wrong about this, but hey, you're town.

My post 89:

Hacker should post more, but is usually helpful when he does.

(he did start to get a bit less active than I would have liked, but never said anything that bothered me while he was here)

Compare the reads, see the result, lynch Glork. I realize this alone isn't proof, but just add it to my already strong case and let's just end this.

P.S. A mass claim is far too early and another very bad idea from Glork.

[Shteven]

I'm also going to have to reread these last two pages, it's a bit late to pour over them for now (the kinetic/BT stuff; I read Glork's posts). But I do want to respond to Glork's claim:

Unvote.

I mean, I can't be certain, there's no proof, but there's a lot of supporting evidence here.

Let's throw up the player list:

Group 1: Innocents.
TCS - Innocent result, possible Godfather.
Inhim - Innocent result, possible Godfather.
Yos - Innocent result, possible Godfather.

Group 2: No Results:
Shteven
MBL
Kinetic
BillyTwilight
Jack
Yogurt Bandit

Glork - Claimed cop.

So then there would be 0 or 1 scum in group 1, and 1 or 2 scum in group 2. SK would have to be in group 2.

If he's telling the truth, that's a lot of information. I believe the claim, but after all the back and forth over these days, it's a bit hard to swallow. Especially with him not investigating me...That would have made quite a bit more sense!

Of course, this just supports the TCS is the god father wagon, but hey. I'll lay off that one for now.

[Shteven]

Some thoughts:

I agree that kinetic has been sounding a bit scummy. But it's nothing I would be able to, or care to, build a case on.

We need to put MUCH less faith in Glork's innocent results. They are very nearly worthless. This is not because Glork isn't a cop; he very likely is. This is because

both the godfather and the SK are investigation immune.

If he did investigate (one of the remaining) scum, there's only a 1/3 chance that he would even know.

So I wouldn't exactly consider any of them cleared. I'm thinking TCS may be a good case I'd be willing to start again.

I also think MBL is a great case and I'd be willing to lynch him,

but not right now.

Give him a little while, at least let him reread, make a claim, etc etc. Even though at this point there is very little left to claim and unless we see masons, everyone will be claiming townie.

In summary, the town went from very strong (day 3) to very weak (now). If we aren't right today, baring some extreme cross kills, we're toast. Take it easy.

[Shteven]

Sarcasm aside, I still have my BM-town tells. I think that Kinetic is an inarticulate and bumbling player (no offense to him), but when it comes down to it I do not see him as scum. Period.

I believe you've mentioned time and time again that it's a logical fallacy to assume you're always right, isn't it?

[Shteven]

"Overdefense?"

Weak.

@MBL A few of the one liner posts could have been consolidated, though

[Shteven]

In a wonderful display of hypocrisy, I will now double post...anyways...

MBL's tone has really changed as of late. Maybe it's just the wall of text, but he sounds much more serious and determined. I have yet to figure out if this has any real bearing on his alignment, but it certainly makes him -seem- more townish, because that's my play style and I can identify with it.

I remain quite confused by the massive posting even on this day alone, though. I wouldn't mind some cliff notes...

[Shteven]

1. Shteven

: His arguments with Glork color my perspective of him, but right now I am feeling townie. I'd like to hear more from him in regards to Kinetic and MBL. I don't particularly like his post #2247; it's too noncommittal and I don't like noncommittal at this stage of the game. Why do you think Kinetic is scummy but not worth "building" a case against? If you find someone scummy you need to be probing for more information from them.

I get the tone from his posts that he wants to go after TCS but is afraid to actually step up, make the case, and vote accordingly.

The accuracy of this makes me want to trust billy. I'm trying to build up a "reasonably certain that they are town" list, it's not required that I believe you 100%, but to about 90% chance or so.

I'm willing to put Glork and Billy on the list. YB may get on, but I'm a bit iffy. I don't think YB could really be scum at this point with the way his wagons have gone. SK is unlikely but keeps him just under 90%.

I've posted some TCS reasoning earlier; and I expect if anything comes of this I'll be reposting a fair amount of it...but for now:

Vote: TCS

[Shteven]

EBWOP: I'm not saying that one sentence completely cleared billy alone; I've thought he was townish for a long time. That line certainly helped though.

[Shteven]

I was originally (days 2-3) very skeptical of MBL. His recent defense has lessened my concerns about him, I feel he's been more effective than Kinetic. But I'm still holding them about the middle of the pack; I don't have much on kinetic besides feelings, so I really can't advocate a lynch on him for that alone. I probably should go into more depth than this, but it's late. Are there any specific questions you (or anyone else) have that I could answer?

[Shteven]

Most of the misgivings about TCS start around day 2. Day 1 he wasn't very helpful, and he backtracked on a claim that he acts scummy on purpose, which hackerhuck (confirmed town) called him on. Reference TCS's own post on Jun 11th, 11:17am for a handy quote pyramid on this.

His vote hopping is also very extreme day one.

Vote hoping continues day 2: He votes guardian in his first post, unvotes in his second, votes battle mage in the third, unvotes/votes Glork in the 6th, jumps to me around 11th post, etc. He doesn't cite significant reasons for most of these, at most referencing one recent occurance for the complete vote shift. He switches to YB and then back to glork before day 2 ends.

Day 3 he's right back at it, voting YB in his first post with absolutely no accompanying text. His next post had a bit more text in it:

I think now's the time to vote:BillyTwilight.

Now there's a reason. To be fair, he does clarify this later on:

I'm voting Billy because I think he's scum. That's my explanation, take it or leave it.

So now we're crystal clear.

His answers to the mod question of scum/sk had hackerhuck as scum. He could, of course, simply be wrong, but I'm noting that he was wrong. Other choices are Glork(as SK) and billy as scum. Both are still alive but I believe he's wrong about both. Which despite recent events, is still very hard for me to say about Glork. Back then, I can't really fault him for the Glork choice, but I will for HH.

So, to answer glork: this is why I think TCS is

scum

. As for being the godfather, well, if we believe your claim, then he has to be the godfather or SK. I'm not aware of any godfather tells that aren't shared by regular goons, other than perhaps he could try to get investigated? Hard to tell at this point since he's already got a claimed innocent investigation.

As for why MBL isn't dead yet, well, there's only so many people you can kill in a day/night cycle. Give it time? Frankly, I like his recent defense, but it's entirely possible I'm wrong. I have been suspicious of him on earlier days. He may still be a good canidate for SK, but that should be taken to show that I have no good targets for SK, rather than that he is an excellent one. I simply don't know who to place in front of him. TCS could be, but I'd lean towards TCS being scum. Also, I feel that knowing TCS's alignment for certain would be a significant boost to the town. Do you agree with this, Glork?

[Shteven]

^^ good posting ^^

This is a reminder that I'm already voting TCS and that the wagon needs more votes. Do your civic duty and I'll bring the noose.

[Shteven]

...I'd lean towards TCS being scum. Also, I feel that knowing TCS's alignment for certain would be a significant boost to the town. Do you agree with this, Glork?

Repeated in hopes of getting any answer. Anyone else can weigh in, but I'm especially interested in Glork's answer, as he did choose to investigate him, he must be thinking something.

[Shteven]

For the record, Billy is pretty much confirmed town now.

I already called this yesterday ;P

As for an investigation target, I'd target Jack.

As for caring about investigations, only a little bit. There's a chance you'll get the goon, but otherwise, it's up to us to find the scum ourselves. And this is why TCS's defense of "I've been investigated" bothers me so much. Certainly it's a fact in your favor, but you can't really be so bold as to claim there is absolutely no reason to vote an innocent today when 2/3 scum are immune. Use it as support, don't put your entire case on it, and don't call people voting for an innocent stupid.

[Shteven]

Not that the whole claiming-cop-will-get-glork-killed thing is

wrong

, it's just not

certain

. Let's look back at our good buddy Guardian, a claimed cop, who was truly a townie, and therefore neither the mafia nor the SK would have known he was lying (other than by reading him) and he survived the night.

So if glork happens to survive this night...is he still confirmed? Do you think he thinks he can make it? Honestly, if I was scum, I wouldn't consider killing glork to be essential.

[Shteven]

I'd recommend voting TCS and being willing to shift to Jack. I have a good feeling about this one Plus, you've got two votes there already.

[Shteven]

Just to clarify slightly, I agree with the advice I gave Kinetic. I hope he'll join me on TCS, but in the end, I'd be willing to switch to jack if needed.

I believe that Glork/MBL mean well, but their protracted arguments are simply distracting the town. There are better targets.

[Shteven]

Well I'm certainly suprised to see myself at the top of the list for mafia. You citied some general weakness overall, which I can't really say much about. But the claim that I've used flawed logic, I'd like to hear more about. I don't think I've used any, of course I can't claim to be perfect either.

If it's about the burden of proficiency stuff, that is NOT a logical error. The logical error would be to claim that if a normally skilled scum hunter is performing below normal accuracy that they are then scum. That would be an error. What is not an error is to say that if a skilled scum hunter is performing below normal accuracy that it increases their chances of being scum. The problem with this is that they have to be very good and even when they are very good, it's a very small boost to their chances of being scum. In the end, it's technically valid, it's just not very useful. Glork, mind you, has a vested interest in arguing against this, regardless of his alignment in this game, so please keep that in mind. I could go into more detail if you want, this is the shorthand version, I'm not showing all the steps (or any of them, really). Certain things could mess that up, such as intentionally throwing games when you're town, or extreme busing as mafia, but I assume that good players won't throw games as town, as that would be rather horrible. And busing two or three mafia would similarly be counterproductive. Maybe two in some cases...

And if this wasn't the flawed logic you mentioned, or if there's another case, please mention it.

[Shteven]

EDIT: Oh yea, investigated innocent. This is why we don't post 5 minutes after waking up, kids.

Is it just me, or does TCS still believe that being investigated innocent is a complete get out of jail free card even though 2/3 scum aren't "guilty"?

Yosarian is guilty of this as well, but at least he backed it up with a decent reason, that killing a non-confirmed will narrow down the pool of possible goons. This is true, but I don't feel that this is a very good strategy, and will probably be less accurate than regular hunting.

I think TCS especially, but also Yos, are clinging to their results a bit too desperately.

[Shteven]

I don't think anyone's voted in the past page; I may have missed some. But in any case, since the last vote count, we have 5 people voting, and 5 people not voting. Is there any reason why so many people are unsure? I'd like to see the five people vote; anyone is fine. We're split enough that I doubt we'd get a lynch (probably not even -2), but I'd like to see where everyone's finger is truly pointing.

[Shteven]

In order for me to accept the claim that we should lynch non-investigated players simply because there are three possible roles instead of two, I'd have to also accept that the town's read is no better than a die roll. Well, there's certainly a lot of room for error, but I'd certainly hope we can do better than random selection. And if my selection falls on a non-goon, that's just fine by me.

What would you do if Glork isn't a cop?

[Shteven]

Above question aimed at Yos, although anyone could answer/think about it if they want.

[Shteven]

I meant more specifically that he'd be misleading your lynches. Maybe the innocents aren't actually innocent.

I don't believe this to be likely, I just don't like seeing assumptions being taken as fact. Lynching anyone would narrow down who the goon could be in the case of Glork lying. Frankly, on day 4, I'm not interested in narrowing things down, I'm interested in successfully lynching either mafia or the SK.

Perhaps it's not extremely dire yet, but the town's not in nearly as strong a position as it was yesterday.

[Shteven]

Agreed. I simply dislike it when people take "very likely" and replace it with "certain". It's close...but...not quite close enough

Honestly I'd like to feel as though we're getting somewhere; last few days have been back and forth to no immediate end. I'd like everyone (aside from CTD perhaps) to place a vote on someone, let's see where we stand.

[Shteven]

Honestly I'd like to feel as though we're getting somewhere; last few days have been back and forth to no immediate end. I'd like everyone (aside from CTD perhaps) to place a vote on someone, let's see where we stand.

Not to muddy the waters further, but this is something a scum would be likely to want--a clear picture of everyone's intentions so he can choose a side to push. I'm going to look closely about how committed you have been to a lynch thus far today, and if I see a lot of wishy-washy stuff, I'm voting you.

Not quite the response I was expecting; but in any case you'll see I've been firmly voting you for some time now. I've also announced reserverations about Jack, but I'm hoping to stick on you until you're hung!

The moderator himself has stated that there would be a deadline if not for the replacements who are trying to catch up. Reaching much, are we TCS?

[Shteven]

September 13th:

Official Day Four Vote Count

MrBuddyLee – 2 – Glork, Kinetic
TCS – 2 – Shteven, MBL
Kinetic – 1 – Jack


With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch!

Not Voting – 5 – RougeBen, CrashTextDummie, BillyTwilight, The Central Scrutinizer, Yosarian2

September 22nd:

MrBuddyLee – 2 – Glork, Kinetic
TCS – 2 – Shteven, MBL
Kinetic – 1 – White

10 (and counting) days. No votes.

Since then white unvoted since he's still catching up with the game.

So tell me TCS, am I reaching, or is it YOU who is wishy washy? Seriously everyone, it's time to pick up the pace a bit Let's try to finish the game before 200 pages.

I'll reiterate that I'm looking for a TCS lynch. I had my issues with jack, but of course, some time should be given to white, so right now, I'm leaving my vote on TCS for some time. I expect to see Billy, TCS, and Yos vote soon. I can certainly excuse the two replacement players.

[Shteven]

"I refuse to lynch these players at any point in the game":
Jack/White
Yos2
Glork
BillyTwilight

"Probably town based on reads/meta":
BM/Kinetic
YB/mole/Rogueben

"Possible scum with the caveat that max one can be Mafia":
TCS
inHim et al

Odd Men Out (aka, likely scum):
Shteven
MBL

Glork, I know you're pretty deadset on MBL being SK, but you've left out SK in this post. TCS/Inhim et al can have two scum, the godfather/sk. So remember what I said about very likely becoming certain Speaking of which, why was that funny to you/MBL? I assume it came up in another game...

TCS: Care to explain why you're a bad lynch but a good night kill? I'd assume it's because you're claiming a pro-town role, but everyone would. I'd make a great night kill too, right? The only reason someone would make a better than normal night kill was if you had a power role, or were the SK/mafia and the other group killed you.

White: I am not a cop. Around the start of day 3, LML had a mini-game where all players could send him a PM with who they thought were the remaining 2 scum and the SK.

My choices were posted in the thread, but I recall it was Glork/TCS as scum. Not sure who I put as SK, as I didn't really have any solid leads. I left an optional note along the lines of "god if HH is scum he really deserves the win" more or less, because I believed him to be town. Thankfully, I was right, he was a townie.

[Shteven]

P.S. It's these little omissions by Glork, which have happened very frequently in this game, which made me list him as scum at the start of day 3. Maybe it would have hurt us in the long run, but I wish Manaspryte hadn't protected him

[Shteven]

Glork, just on the chance this is a miscommunication, is the sk scum? Ie, when I refer to scum, I mean anyone who is anti-town. so saying that only one of TCS etc can be scum, that's wrong. If you mean strictly mafia, then that's different.

[Shteven]

Let me put this to you instead: If I am lynched and everyone sees I am town, would you clear MBL/lynch Glork?

[Shteven]

I saw the word scum twice and must have glazed over the mention of mafia.

So my mistake on that one. I still don't like the post very much, but that's down to stylistic differences now. I prefer posting the most general information, where you've already narrowed people down based on your own suspicions. Ie, Yos is no longer one of the three who can be at most one mafia, he's now clear, making TCS/MBL stand out much more.

[Shteven]

All right, what part of "let's lynch the players that are

not investigated innocents first

don't you understand.

I'm so ready to vote MBL. He's not this stupid.

Back on september 13th, right about when people stopped throwing out votes. Do you ever intend to follow up on this, or any other vote, TCS?

[Shteven]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but september 13th was still day 4, ie, now. And since then, you've been voting for no one. I haven't checked but I'd believe you have voted MBL at some point, my question was about right now. Why won't the non-voting, non-replaced players keep the game moving?

[Shteven]

Do you ever intend to follow up on this, or any other vote, TCS?

I recall quite vividly that TCS stated he wouldn't mind hammering MBL earlier in the thread.

That's the problem. He may want to hammer it, but he certainly won't support it now. If you think he's scum so strongly, you vote now. I have a very strong suspicion that TCS wouldn't mind hammering -anyone-. And that he doesn't want to get on a wagon early in case he'll be judged negatively for it. And that is the problem.

[Shteven]

And to be consistent in my crusade for correct spelling, I wish to inform you that our dear friend rogueben's name is spelled rogueben. Picture a guy ben, give him some daggers, and put him in a shady tavern. Do not put him in a makeup factory (which produces rouge).

[Shteven]

BM and TCS fit the [SK] psychological profile decently, with Shteven a distant third due to the oddness in the way he's discussed the framing in this thread.

Care to explain this? What makes you think I'm a candidate for SK?

Actually, now that I think about it, you'd think White as SK would be trying to get scum lynched, and he can't actually think I'm a real likely suspect for that. That might bump him below TCS on the possible SK list. Same with TCS to some extent, which leaves Shteven...

Are you claiming that I am not trying to get rid of scum? This would seem to be a major hole in your argument. MBL's argument basically goes: White, tcs, shteven could be sk. White's scumhunting, tcs is kind of scum hunting, shteven is scumhunting, but since we listed shteven last, after we "to some extent" cleared TCS, let's pin Shteven.

Huh? Or just tell me you don't think I've been effective at scumhunting, I suppose...Or does only voting MBL count as scumhunting? It would be rather ironic if you thought I was the SK because I'm not voting you. The anti-OMGUS[K]...I'm going to have to coin that term now

White: I'm sure you'll get around to it, but what makes you think I'm likely mafia/sk? I'll do my best to answer any concerns, of course. <nudge TCS>

[Shteven]

White: You list TCS/Myself as top two for mafia. Do you really think I'd be trying to bus my partner at this stage of the game? Especially when I'm far from being cleared myself. Or are we just likely to be mafia ourselves and not linked? It would be odd if we're the two most likely mafia and cannot both be on the same team.

[Shteven]

If any of you have the time to read through those SK comments I posted for everyone, I'd love your thoughts on which one or two seem least sincere, with your explanations. One of those people is taking about themselves as they talk about the SK--it's a direct challenge to each of you to identify one or two prospective SKs out of the bunch.

Well, just going by gut here, but from that collecton on quotes you put together, I'd say that, other then you, the most likely SK candidates are probably Yogurt, TCS, or Shteven. I find it a bit wierd that none of your suspects here responded to your list at all; any of you guys feel like he's misrepresenting you here or anything?

Context is always useful, but I don't think that anything in my quotes is misrepresented. Sometimes it can be confusing who "you" is, but it's pretty clear for my quotes.

To summarize them, I basically said:

I know I'm town.
The SK may be laying low early on.
YB, despite being pretty active, could be an SK. I was much more interested in YB if guardian was scum, but guardian being town nullified this somewhat.
I thought guardian had a good chance of being SK (oops!).
TCS could be the SK but I think he's mafia more.

I stand by all of these still; of course I was wrong about guardian, but my comments at the time were reasonable.

[Shteven]

....
Shteven on Glork, TCS
....
TCS, Jack, Glork voted both MBL+Shteven.

This is not a coincidence. I've felt that the two of them have been working together for some time.

[Shteven]

This is not a coincidence. I've felt that the two of them have been working together for some time.

But they're not. It's possible TCS is taking shelter, however.

Aye. I should probably get around to posting a summary of the game, but basically manaspryte's protection of Glork threw a wrench into my read on Glork. This was more historical, and I still am a bit uneasy, but protection's protection, and it's hard to argue against that.

[Shteven]

I see a lot of momentum building for a lynch of me, which I suppose isn't a bad idea from a certain perspective. However, I haven't seen a lot of votes, which makes me very, very suspicious of those who are tentative about voting me when in their accusations they all but condemn me.

When I turn up town, either by lynch or death, I hope you all take a good long look at those who are pushing my lynch but not willing to openly advocate it. Those people know I'm town.

And on that note,

Vote: Shteven.

I would prefer to lay the hammer, for my own reasons, but until his wagon builds you know where I stand.

Two things:

1) Thanks for finally voting someone. You happen to have gotten the wrong person, but that's your choice, not mine

2) At first glance, this looks like the first vote you've cast all game that actually has reasoning behind it....But...it's all misdirection. Your reasoning is solid, but you voted the wrong person. Your text is entirely about people who are attacking you without voting, yet I've been voting you for many days and have tried to call for additional voting. So why call out the non-voters, and then vote for an (attempted) wagon leader?

Reread his post. Ask yourself if the text of the post has any connection to his placed vote.

[Shteven]

And if my selection falls on a non-goon, that's just fine by me.

Ping. You don't care if we lynch one of the few remaining town? Have you not been paying attention to the statistics? If we lynch one of our own today we are in almost lylo tomorrow esp if the scum don't cross kill. How can you honestly say this if you're town?

I meant that I have no trouble lynching an investigated innocent if we believe they are the godfather or the SK. If TCS should come up town, I would be very disappointed, but I am confident that he'll come up Godfather/SK. So I am not concerned about finding the goon today. If we got the goon somehow (ie, not on TCS) then I'd certainly be happy; but the SK is a higher priority. After that, the godfather is second. The goon is the least threat; although he may be easier to find.


As far as kinetic's post above, I think the simpliest way to put it is that he didn't think he was exclusively the godfather, that he could be the godfather or the SK.

[Shteven]

Umm White wrote that, not me. I was like "When did I right something like that? ... I don't say Ping...."

Correct. Shows what I get for trying to properly attribute my quote pyramids. Sorry for the mistake.

[Shteven]

Mafia: If we mislynch today, kill MBL tonight. Thanks. <3

Isn't scum-leading a horrible, horrible tell? I think that everyone here, town, mafia, sk, already know you don't like MBL. No need to prevent double-kills, is there?

[Shteven]

To repeat myself:

I know Glork's been going after Shteven for a long time, but I'm not really sure I see quite why; Glork, could you re-state the case for him being mafia?

Shteven's on my list of probable goons, so I'd consider voting him today, but I would like to hear the case for him being mafia again.

Problem is I haven't really heard one. Hell, the best argument I've heard was CTD's reread where he mentioned I was lumping together scummy players...Of course, this was day one, so I suppose not having found all the scum correctly could be forgiven

Also, I was looking for it, but couldn't find it. Could someone point where yos picked who he would want Glork to investigate? Or yos could just repeat, but I would like to see the original.

[Shteven]

Shteven, what is the point of your question about who Yos would like to see investigated, and why didn't you just look for the answer yourself?

Because I'm looking for something I can use to get a better read on Yos, and I can't find it. I don't think he ever posted that information. I'd like to know what he thinks.

[Shteven]

I'm starting to get a bit disappointed with day four. Obviously no one liked to be the leading wagon, but I feel the wagon against me is especially poor. And I hate to see such bad play. TCS I could understand, he's...well, scummy. Glork, bit troubling, but Billy's really getting to me. So let's take a look at the posts they voted for me with.

I see a lot of momentum building for a lynch of me, which I suppose isn't a bad idea from a certain perspective. However, I haven't seen a lot of votes, which makes me very, very suspicious of those who are tentative about voting me when in their accusations they all but condemn me.

When I turn up town, either by lynch or death, I hope you all take a good long look at those who are pushing my lynch but not willing to openly advocate it. Those people know I'm town.

And on that note,

Vote: Shteven.

I would prefer to lay the hammer, for my own reasons, but until his wagon builds you know where I stand.

As I've already mentioned, nothing in this post is about me. The text is entirely misdirection. While TCS hasn't ever really liked me, I don't think he's yet come up with any reasons.

Unvote, Vote: Shteven

I still think MBL is the better lynch 'cause he's the SK, but I don't seem to be getting the support I want right now.

Mafia: If we mislynch today, kill MBL tonight. Thanks. <3

Nothing specific about me listed here, although he's been half-heartedly trying to build a case against me most of the game (but pity he never investigated me, right? Then he'd have the burden of having to be correct). Unfortunately the only part of he mentioned here is that he's settling after giving up on a MBL lynch and hopes this one will stick instead.

Immediately after his post, Yos straight up asked him for his reason:

To repeat myself:

Yosarian2 wrote:
I know Glork's been going after Shteven for a long time, but I'm not really sure I see quite why; Glork, could you re-state the case for him being mafia?


Shteven's on my list of probable goons, so I'd consider voting him today, but I would like to hear the case for him being mafia again.

And it's now three days since with no follow up posts from Glork. Hopefully he'll get on that soon.

Hey guys, sorry I haven't been around. I had a death in the family, and had to go out of town and away from Net access for a couple of days.

White should be lynched. Jack's play certainly didn't convince me of him being town, and White's play since replacing has been less than stellar. However, I don't really see that lynch happening today, unless Glork and Yos have a change of heart. I'm nearly equally satisfied with a Shteven lynch. His post #2605 seems like a desperate attempt to deflect away from the fact that Glork had just voted him,

Vote: Shteven

Shteven, what is the point of your question about who Yos would like to see investigated, and why didn't you just look for the answer yourself?

Let's get some choice quotes: "White should be lynched." Well, you voted for the wrong person then! "Nearly equally satisfied with a Shteven lynch"...Alright, so another case of settling for #2? So no one gets to lynch their primary target, but we'll just shrug and lynch the guy who we think will be easier to hang?

Let me make it crystal clear: Glork voted for me. I'm well aware of it, I don't see how I could possibly hide it. He's been after me most of the game, its hardly news to me. I will continue to point out his scummy behavior whenever I can. His being protected from a mafia kill does absolutely -nothing- to clear him from being the SK. And now that's he directed the mafia to kill MBL, he's free to kill whoever he wants, and he's assured that he'll live for another day. And since he's already "cleared town", He's got a decent chance of living to end game if he can just manage to find a mafia member or two.

The wagon on me disgusts me. I'd really like to hear some reasons at some point. Especially Billy, as I feel you're town. You probably still are, but you've been suckered into a bad wagon. Mafia never lynches alone, after all.

[Shteven]

EBWOP: To be technically correct, nothing above the line where TCS voted for me is about me. Afterwards, he states he wants to be the hammer, which is odd. He's mentioned this again recently. Apparently he would unvote and revote for me at the end to hammer? The only reason I could think of for this is some very odd role, but this game has open roles with all PM's quoted. He's just being strange, or maybe has a bet with a friend to see who can hammer the most players?

Care to explain, TCS?

[Shteven]

EBWOP: To be technically correct, nothing above the line where TCS voted for me is about me. Afterwards, he states he wants to be the hammer, which is odd. He's mentioned this again recently. Apparently he would unvote and revote for me at the end to hammer? The only reason I could think of for this is some very odd role, but this game has open roles with all PM's quoted. He's just being strange, or maybe has a bet with a friend to see who can hammer the most players?

Care to explain, TCS?

I will explain when I hammer, scum.

Well then a nessacary precondition would be that you unvote. I recommend parking your vote somewhere it will do some good, try yourself!

[Shteven]

Funny you should mention that, because you're voting for me.

[Shteven]

Because there's still two of him (Mafia) alive, and by lynching a townie (me, there, I claimed) it would take two days to kill mafia, two days we won't have any more.

Depending on various interactions with the SK, at least. I'm a fan of cross kills.

[Shteven]

I am not liking the current reasoning for the wagon on TCS. It's a distraction orchestrated by Shteven and White. Guys, think for one second and ask why TCS as scum would specifically ask to let himself be the hammer. I understand that his request was a strange one, but TCS does off the wall things when he gets bored with a game.

I already have asked why he would want to hammer, and since the role PM's are out in the open, I know there's no game reason. He's being strange for strangeness's sake, and yet I'm the one accused of being distracting.

It's entirely possible his intentionally strange behavior is being confused for intentionally scummy. I can't give you certainty. Have you stopped to think for one second and ask why TCS as town would specifically ask to let himself be the hammer? Aka, hello WIFOM.

I also consider it a gross misrepresentation of my post to claim that was "trying to make a big deal out of Glork asking scum to kill MBL" when I merely mentioned it once in passing right after it happened. It's merely something that I felt should be pointed out, I did so, and have never mentioned it again until you just brought it up now.

[Shteven]

CTD, I'm glad that you linked to my post directly, because I think that the in-line quote is slightly misleading. I was trying to put forward a game theory argument, which relied on one (possibly both) of them being town, without actually claiming that I knew one (or both) were town.

I still think the game theory answer I gave stands. Of course you could lynch another town person, but since you know that you are town, you shouldn't lynch yourself over someone else. The only problem outcome would be if you lynch them, they turn up town, and then you are lynched because of it. Possible, but I think that would be unlikely; there's plenty of other people with you on the wagon, right?

I admitted then and I admit it now, this doesn't "feel" town. There's something to be said for being willing to sacrifice yourself for the good of the town, but I don't see how the day 1 situation would have been aided by such a sacrifice.

So really, my post didn't have much to do with Yogurt's alignment.

[Shteven]

CTD was accusing me of voting for Albert with 30% confidence, and unvoting guardian based on thinking his claim (of doctor) had about a 40% chance of being true. In other words, 60% chance of him lying, or being scum. (you would think these things were one in the same, but in a very strange situation, it turned out he was lying and was not scum). So let's take a look. Here's where I voted Albert:

Well that was a rather surprising turn of events. After wondering if a MBL wagon would spring up, Albert's taken the honor instead. Well, reference my post on page 49, Albert was my third choice, and for day 1, that's plenty for me.

Unvote, Vote: Albert B. Rampage

Not really necessary since he's already at 6, but who knows, maybe we'll make 10.

While I did skim through all of my posts up to this one, I didn't see any place I mentioned 30%. If I've missed it, let me know. In the previous post I listed my top candidates, which I refer to here, and albert was third. I didn't find him that scummy, but it was day 1, and I preferred his wagon to YB's. So I went along with it. He already had enough for deadline lynching, but wasn't too close to a normal lynch. I mostly wanted my choice to be recorded so people would know who I preferred.

Now, let's look at the 40% on guardian claim. Day 2 rolls around, I first tried to get some interest in Glork, but that didn't go far. Guardian comes around, gets a lot of votes, and then claims doctor. Let's look at just ONE LINE in my post, the very first one:

Some recent thoughts: Guardian's claim I'd put at around 40% likelihood. However, it's increasing his chances of being NK'ed, so I don't think we need to waste a lynch.

Would it have been so hard for CTD to have quoted two sentences? That there was a very simple, explicitly stated reason why you can't just compare 30% vs 60% (and I still haven't found the 30% number myself)? And in general, you need to be less certain to make a day 1 lynch than you do a day 2 lynch. Especially when we had a known scum through a cross kill and therefore information was being revealed.

I unvoted guardian in that post. But then, another thing CTD didn't mention...I voted for guardian again in my very next post. I continued to argue against Guardian for a large part of the day until the sarcastro wagon started and it sounded very good to me.

I'm not yet decided on whether or not CTD is simply mistaken or trying to frame me, but I will certainly be watching his claims about me rather closely from now on. I probably should have done more rereading to verify his earlier ones as well.

[Shteven]

Uh.


MBL is the SK
Shteven is the Goon.
The GF is out there somewhere.


You can go read my posts throughout this game and figure that out. Just go sort by users and click on me, and read.

I have a modest proposal for you Glork: Since you're a cop, and assuming I'm not lynched today, investigate me tonight. I promise you I'll come back innocent.

Now, if you want to lay out a case for me being godfather, go ahead. I honestly am a bit surprised you said I'm goon instead of simply mafia. But I absolutely assure you that I am innocent.

And before anyone reads too much into me just saying innocent instead of town, yes, I'm townie, no, I'm not the SK. Thanks.

Chances are someone may kill you or I before that, but call me crazy, I think there's a decent chance we'll both live, assuming TCS is the lynch. He is in the lead now, although I'm surprisingly high

for never having anyone make a case against me

. Yos did by process of elimination, but there's no points against me I've yet to hear. And process of elimination on day 4 is wrong.

[Shteven]

EBWOP: Come to think of it, to be fair, CTD has started to in his re-reads, but he hasn't finished them yet. Still, no real case has formed yet.

[Shteven]

Unoffical vote count:

Shteven - 3 - TCS, Glork, Billy Twilight
TCS – 3 – Shteven, white, rogueben
White - 2 - Kinetic, MBL
Rougeben - 1 - Yosarian2

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch!

Not Voting – 1 -- CrashTextDummie

I was wrong about TCS being in the lead, I missed MBL's jump off TCS to move to white.

MBL: Why did you unvote TCS? Do you think TCS is town, or is it just a case of White being scummier by comparison?

[Shteven]

Granted it wasn't deadlined when you unvoted, but I think when you're officially deadlined even with extensions for replacements, it's safe to say it wasn't a quick lynch.

[Shteven]

I don't know if I could reach 90% certainty myself, but if you think you can, that's admirable in my book. I'd give TCS about 75-80% odds.

[Shteven]

FOS: Glork

There, I did it. It's been days since Yos has asked him to provide a reason why he's voting for me, and all he's done since then is

1) claim he's happy with his vote on MBL. Except he's voting for me. He's hardly aware of what's going on...or he'd like to play it that way.

2) Reassert that I'm the goon with no reasons.

If Glork can't find it within himself to either unvote me or provide some reason behind his vote, something is seriously wrong. If he should live and I should die, when I come up town, I want everyone to reverse their belief in his claim. Consider Glork off my confirmed list. Although in truth I imagine this will hurt my case more than help it, I cannot help but be honest.

I believe I'm the leading lynch since I was the first at 3 votes. I'm not sure what the deadline requirements would be (3 or 4 votes?), but I may already be there. This isn't a time to casually vote for someone with no reason AND forget that you put the vote there.

MOD: how many votes are needed to deadline lynch? 3 or 4?

[Shteven]

Shteven

- I'm starting to get cold feet about him a bit. The one thing that strikes me about him is consistency. Not only his own, but the consistency with which I found his actions scummy. I'm getting flashbacks of FTF, in which I had similar feelings about Nightfall because I developed the mindset that he was scum early on and started seeing everything he did from this PoV. He ended up being the only player I read fundamentally wrong.

Makes sense to me. I had this problem with Glork, got over it, and lately I've been getting a bad feeling about him all over again. I mean, he forgot who he's voting for. And he's voting for someone who he's made no case against AND who has enough votes to be deadline lynched. Anyways, back to the point...

[Still talking about Shteven]
There's nothing in these last 20 pages about him that screams scum to me, and the only real strike against him was that he helped lynch Guardian, although the circumstances don't actually hint at his alignment either way (which is why you don't fakeclaim as town, Guardian, if you're still reading). My opinion about him at this point in large parts depends on how he defends himself against the various points I brought up against him over my analysis.

Then compare the above to the below:

Jack

My opinion of him has vastly decreased, to the point where I want him lynched sooner rather than later. First of all, his reaction to the Guardian fiasco was far and beyond the scummiest. He was all too ready to accept Guardian's new claim as true:

So in short, Shteven is scummy because he didn't believe Guardian's second claim, and jack is scummy because he did believe guardian's second claim. While some leeway for tone of arguments could be made (ie, maybe you wanted people to believe guardian but not push for it as much as jack did?), you still can't have it both ways. I think this is another case of

I'm getting flashbacks of FTF, in which I had similar feelings about Nightfall because I developed the mindset that he was scum early on and started seeing everything he did from this PoV. He ended up being the only player I read fundamentally wrong.

[Shteven]

P.S. Why am I the only one answering CTD's posts?

[Shteven]

Mafia's #1 threat was the SK until Glork claimed. Yet they didn't take a shot at me. After your read of the first two days, most of you claim to have found me a likely SK candidate, but mafia chose to kill Glork instead. I suppose it's worth asking again... who really thought Glork was an SK or power role at that point? I believe there's evidence that both Shteven and TCS did, but I need to read D2 again to be certain.

I have no problems publicly stating that I still feel there's a decent chance Glork is the SK. I think he's likely a cop, but my confidence has eroded some. To put a rough figure on it, maybe 70cop/30sk. Not that high a chance of sk, but higher than most other players by a fair margin.

I'll try to give him time since he's moving, but sadly, the deadline exists and I don't want to be lynched by people who aren't really sure who they are voting for.

[Shteven]

And now it's time for the many-unconnected-points-arranged-in-one-post game!

1) I do agree with Glork that asking about the masons at this point seems odd. I think just about everyone else has written off their existence. I'd be very, very shocked if we have two.

2)

Glork is the claimed and uncontested cop with a good record.

There may have only been one cop in the setup, who was killed night 0. Uncontested helps, but I wouldn't take that we had two cops for granted. If I claimed doctor and no one contested me, would you believe me? Remember, we only had one revealed so far, Guardian was townie, and mana is dead. This is all hypothetic, of course. I'm a townie.

3) I'm a bit surprised people feel I'm close to white? Honestly if anything I'd say I've been agreeing with MBL most lately, simply because I don't consider him to be the SK. Of course, at this point, I'd be happy to support anyone who agrees with me on TCS, because lynching another townie would be very dangerous for us.

4)

wrote:
P.S. Why am I the only one answering CTD's posts?

Because he just finished and its 5 AM where I am so I can only assume most people haven't even read his posts yet. I know I wasn't going to respond much to him until he caught up or even talked about me... its not unheard of for people to wait and find out what his current feelings are on the game.

Fair enough, however, we are kind of 3 days from the deadline. Forgive me for being a bit nervous, I'm kind of the leading mislynch at the moment

5)

White and Shteven are both my top mafia suspects and they are both voting for TCS.

You think that's something? I have something that will

blow your mind

. Back on day three, I listed TCS/Glork as scum in the answers to LML's quiz. Day 4 comes around...TCS votes for me, followed by Glork. That's right, the two people I picked as scum are leading the wagon on me. OMGUS, anyone?

Have either of them made a case? Let's eliminate the insightful townie?

[Shteven]

Glork: Point blank: You are voting for me, yet said you were happy voting for MBL. We are three days from deadline. Please state where you want your vote to be by name (ie, not "I like it where it is"), move it if necessary, and provide one or two short reasons why you are voting for who you are. Summaries of previous posts are fine. Give us something.

[Shteven]

Well thanks for at least responding, although you still didn't give any reasons other than the lesser of two evils, with me being the one you think you could successfully hang.

[Shteven]

Important note

: I wrote this post as white/BT made their posts which are now above this. White more or less confirmed what I said about him, and billy is making a presence which is most welcome. I look forward to trying to straighten this out tonight/tomorrow. I haven't modified this post too much because it's just too extensive. Gave BT credit for being busy.

Mod Note: Due to a counting error, the majority of the majority is 4 votes. Not 3 votes. At this point in time, there is NO LYNCH.

I feel much better now Interesting three way tie, then.

In case that wasn't clear, I would like you to lay out a case why one of the other possible mafia goon suspects would be a better lynch then you, Shteven.

I think it may be more generally useful for me to post thoughts on all players in the event of getting a 4th vote or being NK'ed.

1. Shteven.

I am a townie. Lynching me would be dangerous from a pure numerical standpoint, but I also feel that you'd get more information from my death if I'm night killed tonight. I also am quite curious what my chances of surviving the night are. Being close to lynched generally helps with survival, so they may be pretty good.

2. MrBuddyLee (MBL)

Recieved a lot of pressure for talking about the SK, but I'm not convinced that this makes him one. It may be useful cover for mafia, and he still has a decent chance of being scum, but I'm by no means calling him a certain SK.

5. The Central Scrutinizer (TCS)

Scum through and through. Most likely the godfather. He hasn't really done much to hunt scum. About the only lynch I can think of him trying to push was Glork's - ironically one of the reasons I gave him a break for so long. He has been vote hopping and scheming the entire game. Examples of needing to be the hammer vote, or when he asked if he'd be more likely to survive by defending himself or not defending himself (and as attention to him died down, he eventually went with not defending himself). Seems to be getting away with murder imho.

6.CrashTextDummie

Inhim was hard to get a read on, or perhaps I wasn't paying close enough attention. In the end, I liked inhim well enough and CTD's summaries have sounded honest to me. He's raised suspicions of me but I don't feel they are motived by a hidden agenda, and I think I've addressed them. Or at least some of them.

9. Kinetic

Kinetic I'm much less sure about. His posts certainly seem more serious than BM's, but I don't really feel good about him. It's a rather ironic situation, really. We have a mutual distrust, but both feel that TCS is scum, and so it comes down to who do you distrust more. Mafia is such a positive game I think the main reason he's not voting TCS is because he feels that there's too much scum on it. I heartily encourage you to get on TCS kinetic, I am not scum.

12. Glork

I previously gave him 70/30 on being cop/SK, and that's still about right. Mafia would be looking to kill the SK, after all. His willingness to vote for me without putting up a case makes it look very much like he's willing to hide on a popular lynch that seems reasonable enough to get another townie hung. This is SK behavior.

Of course, being doctor protected from mafia nearly eliminates him from being mafia, so most people have simply moved him immediately to town. This does bother me somewhat, as he could still be SK. I suppose talking like a cop worked better than bread crumbing doctor in this game.

15. Billy Twilight

Billy's is the vote on me that troubles me the most. Perhaps I should have appealed to his reason, for I still believe him to be town. Billy, have any of the recent pages changed your mind about voting for me? He has been pretty silent since voting for me, which is a major concern. Updated note: This is due to work issues, but it still concerns me.

16. Jack 16. White

I never liked Jack's short posting style; I have trouble getting information from such short posts. As such, it felt like he was hiding. White's read through strikes me as genuine. And I'll certainly admit (I'd think it's obvious) that I like people who are voting TCS. That's just natural, imho.

17. Rougeben

I do feel that YB was town, and rogue's been pretty clean since. Rogueben and white both share the thoughts that I looked scummy on read through, but then that it cleared up looking back. I'm wondering if this is due to Glork's reputation/arguments against me. Ie, if I'd been outmaneuvered early game, or if I'm just not as good at playing townie as I should be yet. I thought I did a pretty good job, but as a few people agree on this point, I'll take note of that. That said, he has updated his suspects, and is also voting TCS, so I'm fond of that.

18. Nik Zero 18. Yosarian2

Yosarian feels very pro-town to me. Perhaps he's not leading much scum hunting, but he's come in as the voice of reason a few times. I appreciate the honesty of someone who can both believe me to the be the mafia goon and still point out that Glork isn't making any case against me. If he was looking for an easy lynch, he's already got one, and he hasn't jumped on.


Notes on my current wagon:

The three people who are voting for me all seem wrong for different reasons. First, TCS is scum, and would love to kill another townie. That's pretty self-explanatory from my POV.

Glork on the other hand is a bit harder to read. If he's the cop, then I think he's just overconfident on a read. I find it very odd that he never investigated me, yet is now certain that I'm the mafia goon (instead of godfather why?). If he's so certain, why not investigate me? We've been attacking each other since the start of the game. This is one of the reasons why I feel like the possibility of him being the SK is still high. His innocent results are easy to fake with only one player being possibly guilty.

His voting for whoever he feels can get lynched, especially doing it fairly early before the deadline (if someone did that just today, it would be more reasonable) seems like he's looking to build a case without building a case. He refuses to elaborate. It feels like he wants to walk away from the lynch afterwards. Day 5 comes, oops, lynched a townie, oh, I got an innocent result on player X, let's move on.

I imagine that posting any doubts about Glork will probably just jar with the rest of the town and make me look more suspicious. I tried to downplay it earlier in the day, but I'm not bothering to anymore.

Billy Twillight bothers me the most because I believe he's town. However, he's parked his vote on me and is now too busy to post. It's just...troubling that everyone who is voting for me has parked a vote without arguing for it. It's like the lynch that no one wants to happen, but it's risen to the top. This behavior should be examined closely. I'm wondering if they are hoping my defensiveness will cause me to lynch myself. I am a defensive player, but simply because I believe any attack (explicit or implied) should be talked about. Full discussion aids the town.

Ordered Mafia list:

Mafia:
TCS
Kinetic#
MBL#
CTD
White
Rogueben
Yos
Billy
Glork
Shteven

#: Yosarian, these would be my canidadates for mafia goon. In the event that Glork is the SK, then TCS would also be an excellent choice. CTD could also be possible.

Ordered SK list: *

*It should be noted I am not very confident in my SK list. Mafia list should take precedence. I.e., while I think Glork has a good chance at being the SK, since he has practically no chance of being mafia, I'm not looking to lynch him.

Glork
TCS
Yosarian
MBL
CTD
kinetic
white
rogue
billy
shteven

[Shteven]

Another small point I'd like to make is about the force I'm trying to drive TCS's lynch with.

I think it's safe to say that if I'm wrong about TCS that I'd almost certainly be lynched for it. So do you think I'm the SK? Is it a gambit the mafia would be willing to make?

Although I do feel that I've developed a bit of tunnel vision since I latched onto him and should have been looking at other targets more, I nevertheless still feel strongly about him.

[Shteven]

I don't see how mafiaShteven, SKShteven, or TownShteven is hurt by forcing a TCS lynch, no matter what TCS comes out as. In addition, certain developments may help general scumShteven immensely, and it is not as big of a gambit as you make it out to be.

You may be right that it's not as big of a risk as I initially thought.

Shteven: Tunnel vision in the late game, in my limited experience, is more of a scum tell then a town tell. In the late game if a scum is allowed to ONLY focus on one player, they are able to effectively skirt really making a choice on anyone else. If someone else comes up as scum, they can easily just say, "Well I thought he was scum all along", or if someone comes up town they can say, "I thought he was town, XXX should be lynched because he forced the town lynch." But as scum, with your tunnel vision you can always just use mob mentality to write off yourself being on a town lynch. "We I wasn't the only one who thought he was scum. Plus I'm just a townie, I don't have any special power to find scum."

...But this is wrong. I noted the tunnel myself as part of a complete honesty policy, and have since explicitly sought to avoid it. You'll note my previous post contained full information on EVERY player alive. I was even asked a specific question by Yosarian2 about who I thought the goon was, which I answered by giving a full list for mafia, and then extracting the non-investigated players for being goon candidates. Basically, I've tried to give full information on all players.

[Shteven]

Call me crazy, but did anyone else get the feeling that yos was holding off because he didn't need to vote for me when 3 was the deadline lynch, but now that we need 4 he had to vote?

Also, TCS, if you unvote, I'll go down to 3 and then revote, you can hammer. Enjoy. Of course, I suppose someone could overhammer, but hey.

Oh, and I'm still town.

[Shteven]

Shteven, why on earth do you see White as less likely to be scum than me?

Also, if you're scum, you've played very well and you should be proud. I just keep seeing things that suggest you're genuinely hunting mafia. You had the same observation about Kinetic that I did--he's staying off TCS because he thinks scum are on TCS.

Honestly the two of you are pretty close. Once you get down to 4th or 5th most likely mafia, what you're looking at are actually townies.

I intially had CTD higher but had to move him down due to him being investigated innocent.

Also, the observation about kinetic isn't anything profound...he's expressed it himself recently:

I'll reiterate, I think TCS is scum. I'm not sure right now if I feel more strongly that he could be the SK or the Godfather, but there is something that keeps pulling me toward the fact that the mafia think he's the SK. I am willing to bet my life that at least one, if not BOTH of the mafia are on this wagon right now. My suspicion is mostly on White/Jack right now. I never really jived with anything he had to say and everything he did just was fishy. White's play has given me the same awkward feeling. I feel my vote is justified right now.

Really, go with your read Kinetic. You are MUCH more likely to be correct about one player than to be able to assert something like this. "I think player X is mafia and player Y is probably the SK so they are voting player Z who I find scummy but must not actually be."

There's just so many places to go wrong there. Vote TCS now and I'll print out the bumper sticker for you!

[Shteven]

Shteven, BT, Glork and/or Rogueben need to vote White.

Honestly I probably would if I had to, but I'd be deeply disappointed.

[Shteven]

I entirely agree with you, Rogueben. However, I already used that argument to keep TCS at the top. It would be hard for us two have two goons, so remaining investigated players have to sink. Only one of them can be high on the Mafia list. The two cases where this wouldn't be correct would be if you're wrong about the first target, or if Glork gave fake results. I don't believe either to be the case, but they are possible.

[Shteven]

Call me crazy, but did anyone else get the feeling that yos was holding off because he didn't need to vote for me when 3 was the deadline lynch, but now that we need 4 he had to vote?

Actually, almost true. I voted for you because I'm not willing to leave the vote count in such a way that it could lead to a no-lynch 2 days before the deadline; at that point, no matter what, i was going to put one of the three bandwagons at 4 votes, especally after the mod said that if no one has 4 votes it's a no-lynch.

This is a good reason, however, it's a bit suspicious that you wouldn't vote earlier, as then your intentions wouldn't be reflected in the vote count. It's as if you knew that having your vote for me on the record would reflect poorly on you during day 5...and it will.

[Shteven]

Thus, if I am going to switch my vote, it would be to you, not to TCS. Stop with the appeals to emotion, they just make me want to vote YOU not TCS.

I don't recall trying to appeal to emotion, but honestly there's not much I can say at this point that hasn't already been said. Obviously, the bumper sticker line was intended as a joke.

Also, I never said that you had no reason to vote for white, just that clearing TCS based on who's voting for him is a poor reason. Certainly if the two wagons were dead even you could break a tie this way, but I don't consider the wagons tied in my opinion. I suppose you think they're closer than I do.

I've got to learn to stop double posting all the time!

[Shteven]

I'm fully aware that most players here would disagree with my reasoning on this, but I am willing to vote white to save myself. I was quite suspicious of Jack, and while I've been less so of White, there's still a good chance he's scum. I'd be much happier with TCS, as I'm sure you're all tired of hearing by now.

So this is not entirely a vote of self-preservation, but self-preservation is obviously a factor. I'll admit to that, and I know many of you won't like it.

Unvote; Vote: White

This still leaves me as the deadline lynch since I reached 4 first; either a 5th vote or one less person voting for me would be needed.

I have a 100% chance of being town. White, by statistics alone, is 33% scum. That's a much higher chance than I have.

[Shteven]

EBWOP: I'm fully aware the last line is WIFOM to the rest of you, but from my POV, it's not.

[Shteven]

I agree that white's post is pretty much awesome. I think it would be possible to fake it, but either way, town or scum, it was an excellent move.

My move looks scummy and I feel slightly guilty, but as I'm assuming nothing will change at this point, you'll all see I'm a plain townie. No power roles left I think...doubt masons are around. It's probably better this way, I'd have that last post nagging at me all of day 5.

But I still hold it's the correct play; it only feels wrong.

Obviously I feel TCS will be the play for day 5, baring something like, oh, if he gets night killed.

Also, and this is very important, if by whatever means you find out TCS is scum, especially mafia, then

do not trust

Glork. I'm not saying

lynch

Glork, I'm saying do not trust Glork. I suppose if TCS is the SK, then it's reasonable to trust him.

Unless TCS is the goon, then definitely lynch Glork.

White, MBL, etc, all can wait.

All of my suspicions and thoughts are posted shortly before, nothing major has happened since.

I like line breaks.

That TCS is still alive is a disgrace to this town. Nothing personal, just sayin'. I suppose that this is a compliment to TCS scum

[Shteven]

Also I'd like to note that since being pretty widely cleared Billy hasn't really taken any risks. I realize he's busy, but when you're confirmed it's time to become more aggressive, not less so.

[Shteven]

I came up with a valid reason why TCS would want to hammer. Pretend I hadn't voted for White. If it was 4/3/3 still, he could safely revote me at the last second.

But, that wouldn't have any impact on the game whatsoever. What would impact the game would be if he changed his mind at the last moment and voted for someone else (aka white). He would do this if he was mafia, and didn't want to risk being associated with a mislynch.

This isn't much to go on, but as I've said a few times, I like to post everything, even the outside chances. It's not a very good strategy because he'd either have to bus his partner, which at this point isn't at all worth it, or really, really know that white was the SK. Neither are good goals. I suppose he could also force a no lynch, but that's one hell of a gambit as well. These are all outside chances.

[Shteven]

Man I've had this thread bookmarked for too long.

When did I die, day 4, 5? What did I do in this game?

Excellent game, although quite a bit too long...but hey, sometimes that happens. One day I'm going to figure out why I get lynched as town every game. It would be nice to be night killed for once.

[Shteven]

About the only thing I recall from this game was when I was very proud of myself for correctly calling hacker huck as town.

Oh, and a seething hatred of TCS, although the bugger out survived me. Then again, it was him flipping town that really hurts...ah well

Excellent work by MBL, by the way.