NY 187: Pariah's Mafia [/FIN]

[Ankamius]

Confirming.

Anything specific I need to look at right away?

[Ankamius]

I got through half of Garmr's ISO and I'm feeling town there right now. Next.

[Ankamius]

I can definitely see davesaz being likely scum. Just look at 167+254 together and apply that context to the rest of his ISO and it's pretty clear how fake it all is.

[Ankamius]

Rc not sharing information is not alignment indicative. It's commonplace.

I'm still perplexed at how I am overreacting to anything by asking questions, making notes, and pointing out sword masters omgus vote and the odd choice of voting for me because I pointed it out.

Isn't the point of this game to get out of rvs, ask questions, make arguments and make notes of odd things? If making notes of odd behavior is defensiveness and scummy then isn't your making a note of my "strange" behavior scummy as well?

What exactly is the appropriate reaction to three random votes? One being an omgus, and two for no given reason whatsoever? Was I supposed to ignore it? Was I supposed to not note it? Was I not supposed to ask what is scummy about pointing out an omgus vote? Kind of important to get into the mind of people isn't it? Especially when there doesn't seem to be anything random about the supposedly random votes.

Am I not supposed to point out inconsistent reasoning? At what point do I get too defensive? And is defensiveness even really scummy?

Im not liking bella's hedging in that post. Trying to look like she agrees with the wagon without going for it all the way. Serious vote time:

VOTE: bella

I do have to say I do like the fact that my vote for sword got us out of the rvs though I never suspected it would.

...what is this?

[Ankamius]

The Keyser thing overall makes dragonspawn look a whole lot worse. I don't like that slot either.

[Ankamius]

I can definitely see davesaz being likely scum. Just look at 167+254 together and apply that context to the rest of his ISO and it's pretty clear how fake it all is.

Took you up on your offer. From my POV, you could have said the same thing about any two posts of his, and it would have made the same amount of sense. I saw two posts that looked completely normal to me, had nothing to do with each other, and shed no additional light on the rest of his posts in this game. Would you like to explain why it should be clear that he's fake?

167 = Weak reads based on relatively strong reasoning.
254 = Relatively strong read based on weak reasoning.

[Ankamius]

Basically, I'm getting a big impression that he wants to look busy, but can't find any good reasons to attack people when he has to put a vote down.

[Ankamius]

lalala

VOTE: dragonspawn

[Ankamius]

Why can't I be this invisible as scum?

[Ankamius]

You didn't read my posts before responding to my vote.

[Ankamius]

You didn't read my posts before responding to my vote.

I did read them which is precisely why I said you have nothing. Because you have nothing.

I have yet to see someone place a vote on me this game for a reason that had any substance to it.

Posts like this are a pretty good indicator.

[Ankamius]

You didn't read my posts before responding to my vote.

I did read them which is precisely why I said you have nothing. Because you have nothing.

I have yet to see someone place a vote on me this game for a reason that had any substance to it.

Posts like this are a pretty good indicator.

That you have jack? Yeah. I agree.

If you had something you would provide it

Yeeeeeeeeeah, you definitely have never played with me before.

[Ankamius]

Why are we scumreading Garmr again?

[Ankamius]

Dragonspawn's reaction to pressure was really OMGUSy, but it doesn't look genuine because he dropped it just as easily once he noticed that the pressure dropped off.

It doesn't help that most of the posts around that time by him don't look town. The one I quoted is the worst offender.

[Ankamius]

TBH I don't see Garmr as the type to be ballsy enough to make a gambit that crazy as scum.

[Ankamius]

I'm specifically waiting for a Kop replacement before risking ending the day.

garmr - (4) Dragonspawn, Boonskiies, davesaz, Titus

VOTE: garmr

VOTE: garmr

Hate to broadcast it again, but:

In post 468, pisskop wrote:
Annadog40, [Town] Gunsmith, has died Night 1.
Mykonian, [Town] Citizen, has died Night 1.
Klingoncelt, [Town] Citizen, has died Night 1.

One of these kills makes Garmr town

.

Is this the scum counter-wagon or am I on the wrong wagon?
Do Dragonspawn, Boonskiies, davesaz, Titus, FA_Q2, TheDominator37 scum-read both Garmr and Aeronaut?

Why are you believing this so easily?

[Ankamius]

Rc is pretty much the towniest player here

You cannot be serious with this.

Anyone with half a brain can see his town

Why is he town?

[Ankamius]

Meant to say rc could of not set me straight and got the lynch off tbh I would of let the lynch go off as town in his postion. RCS actions also push towards town and my gut tells me so

How is any of this obvious enough that anyone with half a brain should be able to see it?

[Ankamius]

davesaz: Your 167 was literally a post giving reasonings for why people shouldn't be null, but are null anyway. Your 254 was a stronger read than any of that off something that had significantly less thought put into it.

I find it really hard to believe that it's based solely on the amount of time you play since you basically vote based on your 167s and don't based on your 254s. It actually looks even more fake that you assumed I was only talking about the two specific posts I mentioned since I originally stated that it was applying the concept to your entire ISO.

[Ankamius]

Meant to say rc could of not set me straight and got the lynch off tbh I would of let the lynch go off as town in his postion. RCS actions also push towards town and my gut tells me so

How is any of this obvious enough that anyone with half a brain should be able to see it?

Well it obvious to me

Ok, why should it be obvious to me?

[Ankamius]

Can you go into detail of what you mean then?

[Ankamius]

Why are we assuming that the extra comma is a double vote? The wagon completely checks out if you remove it which pretty heavily indicates it's a mistaken copy paste.

[Ankamius]

BBT: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p7140373

[Ankamius]

Why are you believing this so easily?

Not easily - neither are confirmed town, however:
Aeronaut - has hinted at having knowledge that Garmr is town - Aeronaut is now committed to that statement.

Similarly:
BlueBloodedToffee has claimed a night vig role - BlueBloodedToffee is committed to that statement.

Do I wish to lynch either Aeronaut/Garmr/BlueBloodedToffee D2? No, it is too risky at the moment - but they are now committed to their respective 'narratives' - if false they will trip up later. [Note: I've been scum-reading BlueBloodedToffee until his soft-town PR roleclaim].

I don't like seeing posts like this because this is exactly the type of mindset I love manipulating as scum.

[Ankamius]

Why are you believing this so easily?

Not easily - neither are confirmed town, however:
Aeronaut - has hinted at having knowledge that Garmr is town - Aeronaut is now committed to that statement.

Similarly:
BlueBloodedToffee has claimed a night vig role - BlueBloodedToffee is committed to that statement.

Do I wish to lynch either Aeronaut/Garmr/BlueBloodedToffee D2? No, it is too risky at the moment - but they are now committed to their respective 'narratives' - if false they will trip up later. [Note: I've been scum-reading BlueBloodedToffee until his soft-town PR roleclaim].

I don't like seeing posts like this because this is exactly the type of mindset I love manipulating as scum.

Explain?

At least BBT's statement is an affirmative that he has to run with and that can get him caught if I am right and he is lying. Vig is an ideal claim for scum though...

It's one of the early steps to a trap I like to spring. If it's not too dangerous keeping this type of player alive (good reads and good influence, mainly, or an important town PR), then I like keeping them to endgame because generally they're the most likely to fall into the trap of wanting to simplify the game later on when it's a better idea to just play based on reads.

[Ankamius]

Titus, VCA confirmed me town as scum in Corpse Party.

[Ankamius]

Firebringer what is your read on dragonspawn?

[Ankamius]

I really don't like the above post, but what I like even less is that I can't figure out whether town or scum is more likely from it.

[Ankamius]

I guess gamr is a better wagon, but idk.
Don't really trust it.

Do you need a bigger fence?

[Ankamius]

I don't know who to vote!!!!

Someone give me compelling case in either.
This is frustrating neither appear scummy.

Get more reads.

[Ankamius]

It's a waste of time and energy to be pushing for lynches that won't happen, so I'm using my time and energy for more productive things, like building you the fence that you've been requesting since you replaced in.

[Ankamius]

Tbh I'm almost ready to just vote for davesaz and get the day over with since I haven't found a whole lot to go off of in the last few pages.

Boonskiies looks like the same derpy town I saw him play a short while ago, I don't trust BBT as far as I can throw him, Kitty is a giant question mark, etc.

[Ankamius]

No.

Last voting shenanigans I saw was town.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Dragonspawn

Blatant scum.

[Ankamius]

Scum play dumb all the time. It means nothing.

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Dragonspawn

I want to analyze it for myself, though.

[Ankamius]

My favorite part of the game so far is that the moment the dragonspawn wagon starts getting criticized, Shazam and duppin jumped ship immediately.

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: dragonspawn
VOTE: Shazam

This is by far the more scummy hop.

[Ankamius]

Shazam, why the turn around?

Duppin, you're unsure on Dragon based purely on wagon speed?

Posts 1535 and 1611, plus a gut read on his posts since then.

1535 has nothing to do with dragonspawn and he ended up hopping on the dragonspawn wagon after that post; 1611 was a question that was only ever answered by one person (ftr; that's a fake townslip if anything). The best part is that his only post between 1611 and his unvote was in support of the wagon.

Yeah, this slot's flipping scum.

[Ankamius]

...and FA_Q2 isn't town for that?

[Ankamius]

Yeah, and I'm confused as to why Shazam is town for sheeping a compelling argument when there's no mention of the one giving the compelling argument being the same.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Ronit

[Ankamius]

Your engagement with me was weird enough that it pushed your slot back above the threshold over Shazam.

[Ankamius]

It's because you never really answered my question, just subtly deflected it.

[Ankamius]

Our engagement is a grand total of four posts total. It's not exactly difficult to find.

[Ankamius]

what.

[Ankamius]

The fact that Shazam of all people was the person who died last night means that something's very fucked with this game.

[Ankamius]

It wouldn't surprise me if I have taken my shot off of scum twice actually.

I don't think I have ever felt so embarrassed over a game haha. I'm literally steaming.

Are you an SK?

[Ankamius]

Hi.

Can someone point me to the Aero case?

[Ankamius]

Titus: Show your work when you're next available to.

[Ankamius]

What makes it not null?

[Ankamius]

What makes it not null?

The fact its when she's brought into the spotlight. She showed barely any initiative the previous days.

Yeah, that's exactly what's null about it.

[Ankamius]

idk

I think we'd have to engage on something for me to get a particular read on her.

[Ankamius]

I have no idea what you're even talking about.

[Ankamius]

Ok, do you have scumreads?

If I did, don't you think I would pursuing them instead of someone I claimed as Null?

Why would having scumreads stop you from doing that?

[Ankamius]

Fire wagon is the best wagon to be on.
It has cookies.

sigh

VOTE: Firebringer

[Ankamius]

Titus are you ever going to show your work with your VCA?

[Ankamius]

...the fuck just happened?

[Ankamius]

Duppin, how exactly am I town? I haven't done practically anything since I replaced in.

[Ankamius]

One of Kitty/Titus probably slipped calling themselves a VT, if not both, probably Titus since she is the one who originally stated to do PR/VT.

I think we missed a few steps between you coming up with that theory and the interpretation I have in my hea.

[Ankamius]

So does a lot of the dead flips. Your point?

[Ankamius]

So does a lot of the dead flips. Your point?

I stated my point. I've seen Titus call this out before when someone else did it. I'm not going to push it further...I stated that. Check back post game.

I've also been 'caught' for a slip like this before, except I was actually town.

I don't understand this scumtell at all and if I'm completely honest, I'd take the opposite as a scumtell if anything.

[Ankamius]

You're hilarious.

[Ankamius]

Then what was the point of bringing it up in the first place?

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Boonskiies

Let's dance.

[Ankamius]

There's absolutely no reason for him to push/defend the things he is. Absolutely none. He's trying to do stuff without actually doing anything, but trying hard to make it seem like he is.

And I'm suddenly doing this now instead of the last... how long now?

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Boonskiies

Let's dance.

The OMGUS is strong in this one.

Your push is liquid shit. Your sudden suspicious shift onto me is horrendous when I gave no indication whatsoever that I was going to push it as a case of anything until now.

[Ankamius]

Suspicion*

Autocorrect wins again.

[Ankamius]

Unvote: Boonskiies

<- VT

[Ankamius]

I would suggest no votes until after the roleclaims...

We are possibly down to 3 townies right now.

it's not a problem; he voted me because I voted him and he's scum. As scum, he HAD to vote me to keep it balanced so people can look into both of us instead of just him. He's going to get other people to make a case on me instead of doing it himself, which allows him to push people for it later. Classic Scum.

You would never have made this post if you were town.

Absolutely.
Fucking.
Never.

[Ankamius]

Who's left?

[Ankamius]

Keysor.

[Ankamius]

I don't understand why we're focusing on two separate scumteams instead of scumteam + SK.

[Ankamius]

If we legitimately have two scumteams, then they're both pretty awful for never having once flipped the other with nightkills.

Either way, giving a shit about two scumteams right now is meaningless and basing analysis on it is even worse.

[Ankamius]

The SK doesn't have investigation immunity then.

[Ankamius]

If we legitimately have two scumteams, then they're both pretty awful for never having once flipped the other with nightkills.

Either way, giving a shit about two scumteams right now is meaningless and basing analysis on it is even worse.

Ank, if there's only one scumteams then my entire VCA is total shit.

That's a monumental assumption to be making when the only scumflip we have is unflavored.

[Ankamius]

Not really when scum have a cop. Everyone had the same assumption.

I find it odd when I question tracking the DV, you're thinking single scumteam but said nothing during my vca statement (saying I was stating my vca required the assumption of two scumteams).

Second, my vca looks at taking into account what scum are thinking and doing at any given time. A single scum with SK approaches this game very differently than multi scum teams.

I probably just didn't notice the first time. It would've been more obvious to me if you had shown your work like I asked.

[Ankamius]

...

I literally do not remember ever seeing that post. I'm starting to wonder if my cookies got fucked up somehow.

[Ankamius]

hi

[Ankamius]

Seriously, no town puts a dead guy in their reads list when catching up. This is the second funny reads from KG.

I don't understand the reasoning behind this.

[Ankamius]

Yeah I'm pretty sure Titus is town now.

Boonskiies is still hilarious.

[Ankamius]

#2377 is awful, but Boonskiie's interactions with her are even more awful, so eh.

[Ankamius]

I could see them being different anti-town alignments, but I'd be a bit weirded out if they were on the same scumteam.

[Ankamius]

as if your normal scumreads have turned out

I have no idea what this even means.

[Ankamius]

Aeronaut, you shouldn't expect anything from Constantine. I've never seen him do anything in games.

[Ankamius]

I didn't say anything about the rest of your post for a reason, Aero.

[Ankamius]

Ok, I'm going to assume for the moment we have something like 4scum + SK as the setup.

Keysor is conftown via Occam's Razor. There are other possibilities than him being even-night vig, but they're unlikely enough to be thrown out.
Titus is not groupscum.

{Boonskiies, Aeronaut, Performer, duppin, Kitty Galore}

Boonskiies is scum. Even barring the sleazy interaction we had, he doesn't have the resolve that I've seen him have as town before. He's just pissing around waiting for things to fall into his lap instead of trying to legitimately get me lynched.
Kitty Galore and Aeronaut have icky stuff about them that I don't like. Aeronaut's is mainly his recent interaction with me. It feels really off.
I'm sticking Duppin into straight null for the moment since I'm not convinced I can actually read him.
Performer, I'm not going to have a solid read until a bit later on when he has more out there.

That's my lynch pool for the moment roughly in order of willingness to lynch.

[Ankamius]

Do you not remember the game where you threw everything on the line to get the lynches you wanted?

[Ankamius]

Look at how you all are sliding towards me. It's obvious, but I guess only my perspective can see it because I'm the one being targetted.

Go ahead and explain why this would be the case.

[Ankamius]

I'm talking about 4-scum total including davesaz, btw.

[Ankamius]

ya

[Ankamius]

If we're in the case of 3 scum + SK, then we can technically get away with one not agreeing with the rest. If there's an SK in the game, it's in their best interest to work with town for the moment.

[Ankamius]

Either way I'm just going to work with that premise until proven otherwise because otherwise town just straight up doesn't win this game.

[Ankamius]

Oh, right. I forgot we only had 8 alive.

That was roughly my list in order. I'm pretty certain that Boonskiies is scum. Aeronaut and Kitty aren't significant scumreads, but they're leaning scum more than town. Duppin and Hermit-slot are question marks; I'm mainly putting Duppin higher up in the lynch list because I'm a lot less certain I'll be able to read him over time than Hermit's replacement.

[Ankamius]

Pretty much, yes.

[Ankamius]

Lol

[Ankamius]

I'll analyze more deeply to see who is Performer's partners when I'm done with my races.

[Ankamius]

I'll analyze more deeply to see who is Performer's partners when I'm done with my races.

oops

[Ankamius]

Oh ffs, deadline is that close?

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Performer

[Ankamius]

I might get to this analyzing thing tonight if the day doesn't end beforehand.

[Ankamius]

I'll get to this tonight.

[Ankamius]

Ok.

Ankamius, what is your read on Boonskiies currently?

Boon, what's your read on Ank right now?

Still scum. Nothing has been town from him since the fight.

[Ankamius]

Titus is SK or town with town being more likely; I don't see Titus being groupscum here.

[Ankamius]

I feel like I'm playing hilariously unbalanced 2 from a different perspective this time.

It's kind of creepy.

[Ankamius]

Alright, caught up.

To be honest, nothing has really changed. I do like a lot of what Titus has said today, but I could still see her be aligned with dave.

Anyway, not interested in Keysor, Ank or Aeronaut today.
I'd like to hear from the Hermit slot (Performer).

Oh and I would still lynch between Kitty, Titus, Boon and Hermit (in no particular order).

Titus is pushing on Kitty which is interesting. I believe there is at least one scum between them.
I honestly do not know how to read Boon, but he hasn't really done anything all game. He has been a bit more active today, but I disagree with most of his reads. Very questionable to say the least.
The Hermit slot looks suspicious. Had a slight town read on TheDominator, but did not like Annarchy or Hermit. Annarchy in particular looked very scummy.

Will most likely put down a vote tomorrow, assuming Performer has caught up. (Which is probably a bit too much to ask for, considering we are at 32 pages)

I'm actually starting to subscribe to the 2v2 scumteams idea after seeing this post again.

[Ankamius]

sigh...well the night vig kill is no surprise. Thrilled he shot true and hit scum.

Not sure what to think on who is left.

This looks way too much like a towntell attempt.

[Ankamius]

Actually, Ank can you give us in detail

why

Boon is so scummy to you?

There's really not much to go into detail on. I get strong gut reads on how people attack me and Boon tripped the gut alarms.

It really doesn't help that one of his primary reasons for attacking me was for trying to disrupt his scumhunting, then he just kind of dropped off and stopped caring once he started death-tunneling me. Him suddenly positioning to try to avoid a 1v1 with me today is also a point against him.

[Ankamius]

Still roughly the same level of lynchability order.

Boonskiies -> scum.
Kitty/Aeronaut -> leaning scum.
Titus -> leaning town. Kinda paranoid here but not enough to pass the null threshold.

[Ankamius]

Although to be brutally honest, I only have you in the leaning scum category because I think you're the SK, so.

[Ankamius]

Actually if Kitty's the SK, then I'm not sure who Boonskiie's partner is, if he has one.

[Ankamius]

ehhh

I'm starting to think 17:3:1 is possible just based on how gimped the town roles are and how powered up the scum we've seen so far are.

[Ankamius]

idk, Kitty. It's kind of difficult to get motivated to try to figure out exactly who's what in the game.

[Ankamius]

However, I will say that I don't understand the vote gambit Boon did and why it apparently confirms stuff about the double voter.

[Ankamius]

Titus why would Boon-scum want to frame Kitty over just trololol-lynching her?

[Ankamius]

Ok, I feel slightly better about Titus.

[Ankamius]

Thinking Boon+Kitty team right now, honestly.

Couldn't give any less of a shit who SK is.

[Ankamius]

If that is the actual team, then Boonskiies is the double voter. Otherwise Kitty's the double voter.

[Ankamius]

Statingim posting without voting if that means anything.

[Ankamius]

bleh

[Ankamius]

I had Aero pegged as SK for like 3 entire day phases, just didn't want to out it because it only helps scum. :/

[Ankamius]

I'm not really sure what I did to be a lot less readable over the past year, but it happened.