Mafia 68: Ork - Game over!

[Shanba]

Aright. Jathan has told me that I am the new Spectrumvoid, and although I know I can't live up to that I'll have to give it my best shot.

I agree with the mass claim. Any negatives are far outweighed by positives. Besides, the longer we wait the more likely we are to lose power roles and give scum a better pick to choose from.

Hi guys

[Shanba]

woah, hold up. I said I supported the massclaim; not we should start it straight away. We need input from the unknowns before we can go ahead with the claim: a partially claimed town would be a terrible position. We need replaceùents/prods on the two players who haven't posted yet.

[Shanba]

I do not support a mass claim. With two dead that the scum know and we do not, it means the scum have two uncontested fake claims. This means that the "mass claim" will basically confirm two scum, and leave us pretty much high and dry, as the rest, in my opinion, will claim vanilla.

This has already been shown to be factually incorrect.

You guys are right, a mass claim would have broken this setup if you had done it with none dead, but the half-reveal is put into this setup pretty much specifically to make that strategy not as effective, and IT IS NOT EFFECTIVE right now. We wouldn't have enough lynches to get rid of all the claimed vanilla, and the two scum confirmed as townies would still win anyway.

You are talking as if we would blindly lynch vanillas and hope for a win. That is simply not true. Massclaim nets us a boatload of cleared players at best, and the possibility of clearing a boatload later at worst. Now obviously, simply lynching vanillas one after another blindly probably wont work, clearing a boatload of players allows us to make this game a hell of a lot easier for ourselves to actually scumhunt.

Those are my thoughts. That is stone cold logic. Don't attack me for disagreeing with the mass claim, attack the logic.

I have attacked your logic. The primary downsides to a massclaim we help solve by having the doctor remained unclaimed.

If anyone attacks me for that, as I have see CKD attacked, I will assume its because you can't beat my logic, and therefore ultimately agree with me.

[Shanba]

Crumbs. I was formulating a reply to IH in which I tried to prove that massclaim would be a good idea, and it hit me that it wouldn't. No matter who the scum killed, we would end up with 11 claimed townies (5-6 townies, 3-4 scum, 0-1 lyncher, 0-1 doc and the rest power roles, whether the scum killed a townie or a power role. Which means the scenario I thought would happen where we could clear people by the amount of claimed townies doesn't actually happen.

The actual benefits to a massclaim in which case are not very high. It would allow us to know there was up to one scum in the claimed power roles which could let us clear a bunch of people eventually if we lynched a claimed power role and he turned up scum. Geh. Now I'm confused. I think it boils down to we can't rely on claims at all this game. I'mma have to rethink things.

[Shanba]

Stop. Freaking. Claiming. Right now. At least, until we come to a consensus. Kinetic, you are being a muppet.

Geh. I looked over the positives again, and I'm coming back round to a mass claim. Save in the worst case scenario, it would help keep or most important power roles alive until later in the game. However, fringe power roles and confirmed innocents would very quickly be taken out. It would confirm us a number of players, and give us the potential to clear players later on. However, it would almost certainly lead to a lazy "lynch the unconfirmed" style which would not be at all beneficial.

I need to think about this.

[Shanba]

Kinetic. That does not excuse claiming. Noone was considering lynching you at least until we had the massclaim decision sorted out. And I doubt you would have been lynched or nightkilled for a while anyway. And besides, what in god's name makes you think stupid town will put you at -1 and opportunistic scum will lynch you, especially given you've claimed a confirmable role. It was rash and :nothelpful:

[Shanba]

Not to mention, if we do massclaim you've messed up the order.

[Shanba]

No. I have stated that I will not claim until we have support in whatever manner for the massclaim from every player (even support under duress like IH). Also, concerns about the claim have not legitimately been addressed. Stop rushing.

[Shanba]

OK. Guardian, I would like you to state both the benefits/potential benefits and risks/costs of a massclaim and why the benefits outweight the costs. I know you've stated the benefits before, and IH has stated the risks, but it'd be nice to see a comparison.

MoS is probably town, btw.

[Shanba]

OK.

Mod: Can we have a replacement for Haut Boy

[Shanba]

Kinetic, that's just dumb.

[Shanba]

Kinetic, if even a small minority refuse point blank to claim then we're in an even worse situation if you start trying to massclaim without their consent. Partial massclaim is absolutely the worst outcome for today. Which is why I'm so pissed that you and Guardian have just randomly decided to claim.

[Shanba]

Ok, I think we should massclaim (though I'm still waiting for Guardian to respond to my post.) I like option 2, as it limits the options for the scum quite a bit. However, I would say that vig should not kill. The danger of hitting the priest or doc and the fact that misvigging loses us lynches I don't like one bit.

However, I am still waiting from confirmation from Khel and Haut Boy/replacement (he really needs replacing) that they will go through with the claim before claiming.

[Shanba]

I meant the one where I asked you to compare plusses/negatives.

Meh. At this point I see what you mean, but it does require us to force the d1 lynch and if both of them are town it gives the scum a benefit in that they can steal another unclaimed role (and therefore disrupt things a bit more). However, I'm willing to go ahead if just Khel indicates his acceptance of massclaim.

[Shanba]

Also, I don't like the fact that it would basically force our d1 lynch somewhere in order to cover our arses.

[Shanba]

Yes, that is correct. Also, vig should not kill, imho.

[Shanba]

No, you haven't thought it through properly.
d1
worst case scenario, vig kills:
d1 18 alive 12 townie claims
d2 15 alive 9 townie claims (priest claims)
d3 12 alive 6 townie claims (doc claims and lylo, becuase of lyncher)
worst case scenario, vig no kills
d1 18 alive 12 townie claims
d2 16 alive 10 townie claims (priest claims)
d3 14 alive 9 townie claims
d4 12 alive 7 townie claims (doc claims and lylo, because of lyncher)

This is on the assumption of scum never killing townies and town always killing townies.

You see, having the vig kill only gains us one extra townie kill and increases the risk of the doc or the priest being killed. Also, it robs us of a day/night cycle which the inspector can use to regain the lost ground on the vigging of townie claims. Not to mention, if a scum is killed, it's better by lynch: we gain more info from the wagon on the scum than we do from a vigkill.

You assume we have to get as much out fo the vig as possible. That's true, however, in this case that means the vig shouldn't kill. Not all roles are necessarily good for the town, and in this case the vig isn't good for the town.

[Shanba]

yeah, that works. In which case, obviously, they should say who they're killing beforehand.

[Shanba]

I'm still unsure of this plan.... The advantage of a massclaim on day 1 is to stop roles from being claimed later as scum could have killed anyone of them.

if we have power roles claim townie, then we essentially go into the same scenario, though I'm unsure how much more of a chance.

Still I think it's an even worse risk to take this way. I WOULD refuse to claim if all power roles did not claim.

I actually prefer the idea of certain roles claiming townie. If scum wishes to try and hunt those roles they are forced to narrow the pool of townies for town to lynch. Still, I see your point about scum possibly gaining more roles to kill.

Actually, I kinda like Yos' plan too. Except it's a little too late for that now. Oh well.

[Shanba]

No, because we don't assume that the doc or the priest are automatically cleared.

[Shanba]

MoS, how much do you want me to claim?

[Shanba]

No results, nothing? Fine. I'd still like MoS to answer my question before I claim, but w/e.

[Shanba]

Kinetic, I asked the question for a reason.

[Shanba]

Alright. I'm the Inspector. Next person go.

[Shanba]

That's wrong. I've claimed inspector.

[Shanba]

technical rule 04... I see. Cunning.

[Shanba]

I got an innocent last night, and I see no pressing reason to claim who I got it on. I would claim if they got close to a lynch, obviously, but not otherwise. I don't like Guardian trying to get that info, either.

[Shanba]

No, I won't.

[Shanba]

No actually, I don't. Trust me.

[Shanba]

Keeping innocents hidden is good because it means the scum can't systematically kill my cleared players, meaning more of them can survive to endgame (where they're more useful).

[Shanba]

Kinetic, Inspector receives alignment, not role.

IH, I am not revealingmy info, no matter how many people push me to.

[Shanba]

IH, Guardian, this is one of those rare cases where digging deeper is bad for the town. Just trust me.

Shanba: Inspector
Guardian: Townie
scotmany12: Townie
Flameaxe: Vig
Gorrad: Townie
Sefer: Townie
Khelvaster: Townie
CoolBot: Townie
IH: Priest
Mastermind of Sin: Mason
Kinetic: Governor
Pie_is_good: Townie
Tarhalindur: Townie.
Yosarian2: Townie
Skruffs: Townie
curiouskarmadog: Townie.

(added in recent roleclaims for reference)

[Shanba]

If it becomes necessary, I will elaborate.

[Shanba]

OK.

We can confirm Flameaxe/kinetic and still get a townkill tonight.

We lynch random player x. For the purposes of the exercise, it's actually not too important, but given the possibility that Kinetic is lying we should choose someone scummy. Flameaxe then kills the target we want dead as a town. (In fact, player x may as well be flameaxe's vig target). Flameaxe will be confirmed and so will Kinetic without losing us a lynch and it solves the problem of losing an extra player to vig fire. i can't see any flaws with this plan.

As for who's scum, I am very suspicious of tar atm. I really hate him saying that he thinks he is the lyncher target (scare tactic anyone) and while I normally view selfvotes as a towntell or at worst a nulltell, the way he selfvoted just reeks of scummy. It also doesnt fit with someone paranoid about being a lyncher target.

Vote: Tar

[Shanba]

You say you are not completely opposed to my idea, and then list how many benefits it brings us? Well, I'm not sure how to take that, except ROFL.

[Shanba]

Shanba should claim last night's target and result.

qft.

he claimed innocent I think, but seriously we need his target.

No you don't.

[Shanba]

Ok: Let's put it this way Yos, I'm relatively sure that Khel is not, in fact, the doctor. In fact, I'm pretty sure there is a real doctor. Once Khel "confirms" he's the doc, I'm going to advise the real doc to come out of hiding and really reveal himself, catching Khel in his lie.

This much I agree with. If there is a doc, a 1 for 1 trade with scum is beneficial to us in this scenario.

O, but it gets better.

Skruffs declared Fork, Gorrad believed immediately that meant vanilla townie. Why? Because one of the mafia at that time had ALREADY chosen the mafia safe claim, so the rest of the mafia were staying away from it. Gorrad already knew that the mafia safe claim was used so just put him in vanilla townie. This really paints Gorrad and Skruffs in a VERY scummy light.

Extreme conjecture. Gorrad has xplained why it is logicaly possible to deduce fork meant townie in this case.

So who sits perfectly in these positions?


Shanba: Inspector
Guardian: Townie
scotmany12: Townie
Flameaxe: Vig
Gorrad: Townie
Sefer: Townie
Khelvaster: Townie
CoolBot: Townie
IH: Priest
Mastermind of Sin: Mason
Kinetic: Governor
Pie_is_good: Townie
Tarhalindur: Townie.
Yosarian2: Townie
Skruffs: Townie
curiouskarmadog: Townie.

Only two claimed power roles (err... three if you include me I guess... just realized that), Shanba and Flameaxe. Vig is easy enough to figure out if he's scum or not. But Shanba isn't. It all seems to point to fit. Shanba's stead fast refusal to start claiming until all the scum were on the same page (he was in the perfect position to stall the claim as long as possible). So who would he be waiting for to make sure they were ready?

Mhm. Why would it help to have all the scum on the same page? Seriously. Scum can't communicate during the day, so any co-ordination would have to be planned overnight. Which means stalling wouldn't help at all.

In fact, did you even read my posts? If we ended up with half the own unclaimed going into night because the town as not on the same page claimwise it would only benefit the scum. I made clear that I felt your jumping the gun on that issue was stupid, incredibly so.

HautBoy/Skruffs
Scotmany
Khel

... Looks like I have no choice now but to prove my power today, but FlameAxe has to as well. Shanba, tell us your results, because I'm feeling rather sure you're scum. I'm pretty sure Khel is fake-claiming Doc, and if the real doc comes out, we could very well prove it all. In addition, the real doc coming out will help protect IH, who may be the only person who can prove this all...

No. There is no reason for me to claim my results. IH targeting me tomorrow will 100% confirm my innocence, hence this whole case is conjecture anyway. Claiming cop as scum in this situation would be idiotic.

God help me... I actually think IH isn't scum

>>

That's nice. The only reason you thought he was scum anyway was that he disagreed with you, which isn't actually a scumtell. In the games I've played with him, IH often plays devil's advocate (one in particular that is ongoin but he is dead in springs to mind) and so him playing devil's advocate here is not a scumtell.

[Shanba]

Also, Shanba, at this point I'm sure enough your scum to think that your "investigation" target of the day will "come out" if we are about to kill a scumbag. You'll declare them innocent, and reroute the lynch (vig) of the day to a non-scumbag.

that would be idiotic. If were power-role claiming scum, I would be the scum's best shot at winning and would be frankly insane to tie myself to my investigation target like that.[/quote]
So I want you to tell us, here and now, who that target is. All you got is innocent or guilty, so there should be nothing wrong with you telling us. Yes, there is the POSSIBILITY that the mafia MIGHT kill them, but honestly, if the mafia is going to waste time killing investigated townies, then they are not killing the other confirmed innocents, i.e. myself, flameaxe, etc etc. And you REALLY should be more worried about yourself right now. There is no 100% chance of you living this night, even if we have the doctor.
[/quote]The later in the game I release my innocents, the more valuable they are. If I release them now, they'll be dead by an endgame situation where they might be useful.

Your refusal to reveal your result now will only mean that IF you reveal it later it will not be believed by me. I cannot speak to if others will believe it, but I see the prevailing wind moving in the direction of no.

That's fine. That's your loss. I can't be responsible for your play on that front, but I will say that you are an idiot if you believe that.

[Shanba]

Shanba should claim last night's target and result.

qft.

he claimed innocent I think, but seriously we need his target.

No you don't.

Why not? Why would having another innocent be bad for the town?

Nope. But having that innocent still alive later would be better for the town.

[Shanba]

I dun really think MoS should claim his target if he has one.

[Shanba]

I think we agreed my plan was awesome, and should definitely be implemented. At any rate, I haven't seen any indication that people think it's a bad plan.

[Shanba]

I think we agreed my plan was awesome, and should definitely be implemented. At any rate, I haven't seen any indication that people think it's a bad plan.

I think that wasting a town-kill is a horrible plan.

I've strongly indicated this .

Wrong, we don't waste a townkill. The vig makes the kill instead.

I like MoS' plan.

[Shanba]

I think we agreed my plan was awesome, and should definitely be implemented. At any rate, I haven't seen any indication that people think it's a bad plan.

I think that wasting a town-kill is a horrible plan.

I've strongly indicated this .

Wrong, we don't waste a townkill. The vig makes the kill instead.

We have potentially two town kills. The lynch, and the vigging. Following your plan, we lose a town kill.

See earlier discussion for why vig killing each night is not a good idea anyway.

[Shanba]

Khel hasn't confirmed that the claim was doc yet. Khel, can you do so please? Also, I'm in favor of Shanba's plan, but I think a Shanba/Khel pairing is likely by Kinetic's logic if Kinetic pardons the lynch and disproves my Guardian/Kinetic pairing theory.

Khelvaster and I cannnot be scum together. Unless we have a sudden counterclaim, it's actually impossible.

[Shanba]

I'm aware of that. But it's kinda useless to be speculating that we're scum together if there are no counterclaims.

[Shanba]

I take this as a fairly explicit doc claim. But if you reall want him to say "I am the doc" that's your prerogative. Just seems slightly pointless to me.

Kelv:

"Intentionally Lurking" early on, because he said he is a pro-town power role, and didn't want to draw attention. Here, have some quotes!

So, I was lurking intentionally. The reason for that was that I am a pro-town powerrole and didn't want to draw too much attention to myself.

I claim vanilla townie.

Self explanatory. Not all that many posts through the game except scattered quick posts.

Final Analysis:

No real read due to not a whole lot of posts.

Vote: Flameaxe

I slipped up as doc. You just went out of your way to tell everyone that I am doc.

[Shanba]

Now you all realize how scummy Khel is being.

Yah, this is a "wtf" moment for me. Still, I find it interesting that your position has changed from LML's game to here. Any specific reason for that.

I still highly and vocally disagree that Kinetic pardoning is desirable. Flameaxe could be killed tonight, and we'd never have a vig kill again. I want to not waste our pro-town kills, and role reveals.

You are wrong. Completely and utterly wrong.

1) having massclaimed means that it doesn't matter that we won't lose role reveals. That was one of the major points in favour of massclaiming, and the major one you yourself were pushing.

2)Saying the Flameaxe should kill in case he gets killed tonight is utter craplogic. It just doesn't follow. If a vigkill is a good thing anyway then he should kill, if a vigkill is a bad thing anyway then he shouldn't kill. Whether or not he dies tonight is irrelevant to the point.

3)I agree with you that Kinetic is likely town. However, following my plan we don't actually lose anything by Kinetic confirming himself, and it would leave no room for doubt that he was as claimed. 100% is better than 90% is better than thinking he is scum (for those who do). And should he start acting really scummy for whatever reason in the future, we won't mislynch him because he's confirmed.

And Flameaxe will be confirmed if he vigges tonight, regardless. So don't try and paint the plan as if we get two pardons out of Kinetic pardoning -- we only get Kinetic's additional confirmation.

You are right, we get one extra. But we limit the danger of Flameaxe's confirmation. There's no worry about him killing the doc (now khel has unclaimed, this is again an issue). There's no worry about him hitting my target or my confirmed innocent from yesterday. There's no loss of lynches due to vigkills. It benefits town.

[Shanba]

Shanba, in the game you mention (It is still going on, and I am in it), the situation is different. Please don't talk about ongoing games. Thank you.

If the player in question is dead, and his alignment revealed, I frankly don't see a problem. However, I will refrain from commenting if you wish me to.

[Shanba]

Now you all realize how scummy Khel is being.

Yah, this is a "wtf" moment for me. Still, I find it interesting that your position has changed from LML's game to here. Any specific reason for that.

LML's game? New c9? I am really confused -- and how has my position changed, and concerning what??

You said that Khel's doc unclaim (or implied, you didn't state it exactly) was scummy, whereas in LML's game you were lynched as town for doing exactly that.

1) having massclaimed means that it doesn't matter that we won't lose role reveals. That was one of the major points in favour of massclaiming, and the major one you yourself were pushing.

We still don't know who the lyncher and doc are -- it is useful for us if we know when they die.

Obviously the lyncher has decided not to claim. Doc claiming is not necessarily a good plan, as Coolbot said. We may as well just lynch Khel and return to the original plan. Also, wtf does this have to do wwith my point?

2)Saying the Flameaxe should kill in case he gets killed tonight is utter craplogic. It just doesn't follow. If a vigkill is a good thing anyway then he should kill, if a vigkill is a bad thing anyway then he shouldn't kill. Whether or not he dies tonight is irrelevant to the point.

True, but that doesn't really address my point that we are losing a town kill.

You are seriously overestimating the power of a vigkill compared to a lynch. A vigkill has no bandwagon to analyse, no claims to shift through, no cases to re-read. Using the vig in order to race the scum is imho, not worth the lost lynches. This is what IH was saying earlier, that we would end up simply mechanically lynching claimed townies instead of scumhunting. Let's not prove him right.

3)I agree with you that Kinetic is likely town. However, following my plan we don't actually lose anything by Kinetic confirming himself

No. You are completely and utterly wrong. We lose a lynch. That is bad.

But we don't, because we have the vig make the lynch instead. What we lose is a vigkill, and a vigkill is not necessarily useful for the town. The fact that there is such debate over whether vigs shouls kill evey night is indicative of this.

and it would leave no room for doubt that he was as claimed. 100% is better than 90% is better than thinking he is scum (for those who do).

I'm pretty happy with 90% and a lynch than 100% and not a lynch, really. Kinetic isn't going to be lynched this game. He's almost surely town. We don't need to waste a lynch to prove that.

The fact that people are pushing a case against him proves that you are wrong. Also, we don't actually lose a lynch.

And should he start acting really scummy for whatever reason in the future, we won't mislynch him because he's confirmed.

I should hope we won't mislynch him anyways. I am happy with how confirmed he is right now, really. If everyone disagrees with me on this I guess I'm willing to just let it slide, but I think Kinetic pardoning == bad idea.

I would also like to not mislynch him. Two people =/=majority. Also, you're ignoring the point that he could very well start acting horribly scummy in the future. If he's confirmed innocent, it gives him more leeway to act. And this is a one-off plan: we can't work this in the future because in all probability one of them will be dead.

[Shanba]

Now you all realize how scummy Khel is being.

Yah, this is a "wtf" moment for me. Still, I find it interesting that your position has changed from LML's game to here. Any specific reason for that.

LML's game? New c9? I am really confused -- and how has my position changed, and concerning what??

You said that Khel's doc unclaim (or implied, you didn't state it exactly) was scummy, whereas in LML's game you were lynched as town for doing exactly that.

In LML's game 2 docs were possible. Here, only one doc is possible.

That is the significant difference -- as I explained there. In 99% of games fake claiming doc as town is bad as it forces another doc -- the real one -- to claim. In LML's game, no doc should have counter claimed, as two docs were possible. Here, two docs are impossible. Also, Khel claiming to be a "power role" in his first post, and then going on to claim doc, is significant in terms of how we were planning to mass claim.

Yah, OK. I can accept that.

Obviously the lyncher has decided not to claim. Doc claiming is not necessarily a good plan, as Coolbot said. We may as well just lynch Khel and return to the original plan. Also, wtf does this have to do wwith my point?

Your point was that we don't need role reveal anymore -- for lyncher and doc we do.

Oh, I see. Frankly, though, I don't think it's as important as you make out.

You are seriously overestimating the power of a vigkill compared to a lynch. A vigkill has no bandwagon to analyse, no claims to shift through, no cases to re-read. Using the vig in order to race the scum is imho, not worth the lost lynches. This is what IH was saying earlier, that we would end up simply mechanically lynching claimed townies instead of scumhunting. Let's not prove him right.

I think we should direct the vig, in effect giving ourselves two lynches per day. That I think is highly worthwhile.

Mm. It's sound in theory, but in practice noone ever pays attention to the second lynch when they have the first under their fingertips. 'Sides, we stiill don't get as much discussion that way.

But we don't, because we have the vig make the lynch instead. What we lose is a vigkill, and a vigkill is not necessarily useful for the town. The fact that there is such debate over whether vigs shouls kill evey night is indicative of this.

Hm? No debate =/= that the vig shouldn't kill. I am assuming that the vig *should* kill, under town direction. We could do this by psuedo-voting to "lynch one person", then lynching another, and having the vig kill who we pseudo lynch.

Mhm. But even if your plan would work, one missed vigkill in exchange for a confirmed innocent is not a bad exchange.

The fact that people are pushing a case against him proves that you are wrong. Also, we don't actually lose a lynch.

We DO lose a town kill, which is what I want to prevent. Stop quibbling on terminology. When I say we lose a lynch you say no we lose a vig kill. When I say we lose a vig kill you say we lose a lynch.

But it's an important distinction. A vigkill is decided purely by the vig and gives little insight into the other players. A lynch gives vastly more discussion. The two are not comparable.

Other people pushing a case on him

in no way makes me wrong

-- I think they are foolish, and that he won't get lynched despite their "case" (which I really haven't seen much of), and that he shouldn't let that make him pardon someone.

No, here you are completely wrong. People are pushing for his lynch, which means they don't believe he's town. Not only would it avoid the wagon gaining momentum, it would force them to look elsewhere too, which would only benefit the town. And, as I have said before, it would account for any future Kinetic behaviour.

I would also like to not mislynch him. Two people =/=majority. Also, you're ignoring the point that he could very well start acting horribly scummy in the future. If he's confirmed innocent, it gives him more leeway to act. And this is a one-off plan: we can't work this in the future because in all probability one of them will be dead.

People need to realize that just because we are using a directed vig kill to compensate for *WASTING* a lynch, that doesn't mean that we aren't *WASTING* a lynch. We are just *WASTING* a lynch and NOT wasting a directed vig kill.

I think we shouldn't waste either

.

It's not wasting, frankly. It's a good deal. I don't get how you can't see this point. Also, see earlier numbers discussion for why vig killing every night doesn't actually help us that much.

[Shanba]

Mhm. That was partly the point. But if we end up just mechanically lynching people because they're townies, we will lose the game (well, probably. Obviously there's the chance we would randomly lynch all the scum, but all the same, scumhunting improves our chances and is more fun). The massclaim was pushed through on the basis that we would continue to scumhunt (none of the players in the game are completely cleared yet, though by tomorrow hopefully a fair amount should be). Your wording makes it look very much like you just want to lynch vanilla townies at random.

[Shanba]

Mhm. This lyncher discussion is distracting, imho. I'd much rather find the bigger threat, i.e mafia than a lyncher. (As a side note, this could explain guardian reluctance to my plan, but like I said, I dun really care about finding the lyncher right now.)

[Shanba]

Unvote Vote Scotmany

[Shanba]

Sure. Be my guest.

[Shanba]

You're flying under the radar somewhat.

[Shanba]

Mhm. I felt we needed a change of pace. All this Khel discussion is feeling cluttered. Nice to have a breath of fresh air, no?

[Shanba]

no, you are not as under the radar as scot. Try again.

[Shanba]

It seems my attempt to move things failed miserably. Oh well. Scot is still a decent vote though.

[Shanba]

Kinetic, it is actually an ad hominem, btw. XD

Frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if Guardian was scum. I don't consider him cleared at all, and I wonder if Kinetic is not suffering from a certain confirmation bias. Kinetic, could you re-read guardian's posts specifically and give your opinion on them, without biasing it by your current read on him?

I don't really care about Khel today. It's a situation that will sort itself out in time anyway. The whole argument between him and Kinetic is really distracting, and I have a feeling the scum are using it as cover (whether or not Khel is scum, this is irrelevant). That was part of the point of my vote for scot, in order to try and point the game in a different direction. (the other part was pressure on a player I had absolutely no recollection of his opinions on, well, anything. It's staying there because of his completely out of proportion reaction.)

[Shanba]

Guys. We have far too many lurkers drifting along while these distracting (khelvaster/kinetic) and ultimately useless (also khel/kinetic) discussions are going on. The Guardian/Yos thing is interesting, and I haven't really been reading it (but I will), but we need to have more posts form people like skruffs or Scot.

[Shanba]

Yup. That just supports my argument even more.

No it doesn't :S

[Shanba]

IF TOUWN ARE ALREADY STATISTICALLY MOURE LIKELY TOU REPLACE THAN SCOUMZ, THIS SOUPPOURTS MY ASSERTIOUN THAT ANYOUNE WHOU REPLACES IS MOURE LIKELY TOU BE TOUWN, DOUH! GIVEN MY THEOURY THAT TOUWN GET FROUSTRATED MOURE OUFTEN THAN SCOUMZ, IT C'PLES WITH THE POUINT KINETIC BR'GHT OUP TOU MAKE MY ARGOUMENT EVEN MOURE COURRECT.

TAKE THAT, SH'NBA!

Phail. His point was that there are more town than scum, therefore more town replace than scum. If 3/12 town get replaced and 1/4 scum, that's still the same ratio. It therefore doesn't support your point at all.

[Shanba]

...

ratios are what you need to determine whether it's a towntell or a nulltell. If everyone random votes, 9/9 town and 3/3 scum random vote. You wouldn't then say that random voting was a towntell. That would only apply if the ratio of town players random voting was larger than the ratio of scum players random voting. The same logic applies here.

[Shanba]

EBWOP: Math>you

[Shanba]

Yes, but Kinetic's point doesn't support your argument. I get pedantic about these things

[Shanba]

I want to say something about Shanba:

Shanba is almost definitely town in this game. I've played in a game where he is scum, and he literally told me that his playstyle, as scum, is to viciously attack his scumbuddies. This was true; he got me and my partner lynched d1 and d2, respectively. This game he's been quite mellow, so I'd definitely put the odds on him being town.

Heh. Much as I appreciate having evidence brought up to support me, I will say that I wouldn't bus my scumbuddies every game, or I'd be predictable. Tapioca Mafia was somewhat exceptional, most games I'm more subtle about it. But it is mostly true.

[Shanba]

No.

[Shanba]

I believe Khelvaster to be a bad lynch today. He definitely should not be doc protected, if he is not a doctor, but frankly even if he is scum lynching him hurts us somewhat (thye no longer have to cover their arses if they want me or flameaxe killed). Even as scum him being alive helps power roles survive somewhat. And there are other scum out there anyway. His play is terrible, but I don't see that he is today's lynch.

[Shanba]

/me hates the way Scotmany, Skruffs and Sefer are skating by without any real attention.

[Shanba]

Actually, can we have a Sefer prod? His last post was sep 08. He was contributing fairly decently up until then.

[Shanba]

:goodposting: Khelvaster.

Seriously, I love how you commit to one stance and stick with it. The thoughtful analysis that goes into your suspicious and your willingness to stick to a position really gives credence to them.

Your play this game makes me want to be a better person.

Interesting use of sarcasm.

[Shanba]

Pardon/vig Tar. Frankly, I don't want Khel lynched today: I'm not voting for a claimed doc d1. Later, maybe, when my investigations are less useful (but then Flameaxe's kills become more powerful, so it's a toss up). We're hardly in any danger of losing by letting him live a day, and even if he's scum it provides scum with an incentive not to target power roles.

[Shanba]

Unvote Vote: Tarhalindur

[Shanba]

Ok, this is awesome, as it means my results are 100% reliable (except for the miller). With the godfather dead we can very quickly narrow down the range of suspects. I'm personally still looking at scot as likely scum.

[Shanba]

I'd rather not reveal right now my results, as said before it will reveal itself in time. It actually makes my job as a cop much harder if I have players constantly asking my results - let the scum WIFOM themselves about it. Am I pushing him because I have a guilty, defending him because I have an innocent, should they be bussing or not? Frankly, it gives us much more info if I don't reveal immediately.

[Shanba]

Interesting that of the group that voted for scot only at most 2 can be scum and one is already confirmed town (flameaxe). I like that in a wagon. It makes me feel more secure. However, for all you people demanding I reveal my results, that's a resounding no. If it becomes important, I will, but otherwise I don't see the point. I also think speculating over whether MoS is scum or not is kinda fruitless too (and actually I think Gorrad coming up godfather implies scum hit a townie night 1: why would the scum not have the godfather claim the power role when he's there best chance of winning?)

Scot, I'm wagoning you for two reasons. The first is that you were a horrible lurker yesterday. The back and forthing between Guardian, Kinetic and Khel really worried me as I felt it was probabl acting as a smokescreen for scum to hide in. For that reason, I felt it was prudent to pressure the lurkers - something I did. However, your reaction to my pressure vote felt off, contrived. And so you're my top pick for scum today. If you want, I could go through your posts and strengthen my case by cherry-picking quotes etc but I don't feel that is necessary, because it's mostly a gut thing. Actually, if it weren't for the fact that barely anyone on the wagon can be scum, I would be worried at the way it developed - I barely gave any reasoning and yet everyone piggy backs on it (probably cause I'm he cop, they all assume I have an investigation or something - if that's the case, you're diluting any reactions I might get from trying to WIFOM the scum, as I'll be WIFOMing town too.)

Edit - I went back over scot's posts anyway and found that while he didn't lurk as much as I thought he did there's a complete lack of content in his posts.

[Shanba]

Skruffs, no. I'm not claiming my results. At most I can clear 2 players - that's making the assumption that everything went well the last two nights (and none of the people I targeted died, or were power roles (n1 when my choice was essentially random). If my innocents come under serious threat of being lynched, I will claim them to save them. Otherwise, we simply give more targets for the scum - something I'd rather not do.

You're all worried about whether I die or conversely whether I'm scum. Frankly I'm not worried about dying, as things would become clear after I die anyway (no I'm not elaborating). And I don't need to worry about you thinking me scum because that will come clear in time also - with the godfather dead, the scum have absolutely no way of escaping my results.

Kinetic, your math is wrong, as there's the possibility I have no useful investigaions left (if I hit flameaxe or zindie n1 and then IH or Gorrad n2). By not claiming, I give us a larger pool later to whittle down the list. If I do it now, my targets will just die.

[Shanba]

Skruffs, no. I'm not claiming my results. At most I can clear 2 players - that's making the assumption that everything went well the last two nights (and none of the people I targeted died, or were power roles (n1 when my choice was essentially random). If my innocents come under serious threat of being lynched, I will claim them to save them. Otherwise, we simply give more targets for the scum - something I'd rather not do.

You're all worried about whether I die or conversely whether I'm scum. Frankly I'm not worried about dying, as things would become clear after I die anyway (no I'm not elaborating). And I don't need to worry about you thinking me scum because that will come clear in time also - with the godfather dead, the scum have absolutely no way of escaping my results.

Kinetic, your math is wrong, as there's the possibility I have no useful investigaions left (if I hit flameaxe or zindie n1 and then IH or Gorrad n2). By not claiming, I give us a larger pool later to whittle down the list. If I do it now, my targets will just die.

No, my math is right. I stated that. That's why I said the best "Worst case scenario". The absolute worst case scenario we still have 8-9 unconfirmed.

Ah. I apologise, then.

????????
Everyone who is town, is a target for the scum. If you can clear townies, you are helping make the scum be targetes. Otherwise, you are nullifying your own investigations by allowing them to be vigged. If you really think the scum are going to take out cleared townies over power roles.... then you... are abad, bad cop. Bad.

Which of the claimed power roles alive is any more use than a cleared townie? The vig and the cop. Both are likely to be protected by the doc, and both are therefore unlikely nightkills. If I reveal my targets, they are unlikely to receive doc protection. More to the point, should Khelvatser be lying scum, they can afford to kill them without breaking Khel's cover. Either way, it's a lose-lose situation.

The vig revealing his target in advance is a much better scenario than me revealing my innocents if you're truly worried about Flameaxe killing them. Scum have no way of messing with his kill, so that's not an issue.

[Shanba]

kk, guardian, you were right.

Unvote, Vote: Yos

We've got our play for today. That seemed like an incredibly

safe

post to me.

Don't know what the point would be of me making "safe" posts when I'm apparently going to get vigged anyway. And yeah, I haven't said much; there hardly seems to be a point, when everyone just ignores scumtells and everything anyone says for this "lets just ignore everything that's happened and follow the leader to lynch a random townie" crap.

Yos. What happened to your intense dislike of lurkers? I'd have thought you'd be all over the Scto wagon.

[Shanba]

Vote: Scot

so many people driving this bus, dont know which way to go...

so I will follow the vig..

vote scot

What does this statement mean? I fail to understand it.

[Shanba]

Interesting. The passivity and sheeplike quality of this town is astounding.

Vote: Yos

because his play has been so far from what I expect (specifically, him lurking - that's beyond bizarre).

[Shanba]

SKruffs-logic-processorchip2000

I want one of those.

[Shanba]

Skruffs, it works just as well if Flameaxe reveals who he is going to kill in advance - better, even, as then I don't target his target tonight.

[Shanba]

if he's about to hit one of my innocents, yes, I say that that's one of my innocents ^^

[Shanba]

OK, coolbot is a good vig target (i.e. not one of my innocents).

[Shanba]

So uh. What's happening to all you non-posters?

[Shanba]

Intrusting. I had forgotten Sir T was even in the game - he definitely needs to say stuff. Also, I agree that Khel looks scummy (in fact, that's pretty much the given state of mind for anyone following the game at all), but if he's not the play today why bring it up?

[Shanba]

My probing question were infinitely more useful than yours, Kinetic. And frankly, I'm just happy that a non-Skruffs vanilla has said something. Though you are right, he does need more Yos vote.

[Shanba]

Are you saying I'm not useful? If Yos turns out scum like me thinks, then I would have pointed out two scum. Pretty damn good if I say so myself.

Naw, I'm saying your methods of interrogating the witness here are all wrong.

[Shanba]

Yes. Get in line. Vote Yos.

[Shanba]

Wait, first re-read. Then post a huge longass post that noone will read. Then vote Yos. That's what people should do on forgetting about games.

[Shanba]

I still haven't seen any reasonable argument against Yosarian when Skruffs and Khel are much better targets for trying to stop even the potential of protecting the cop. And the bounty of posts only saying "vote my way" are killing discussion and the game.

Read Yos' sig. He hates lurkers. He regularly lurker hunts. He thinks that scum are often lurkers. Here, Yos has stopped posting. Uhm. Right. He has ignored lurker wagons. It's bizarre.

[Shanba]

CKD is quite good. But I've already confirmed Coolbot as not investigated.

[Shanba]

Shanba has not investigated (or has a guilty on):
Coolbot, Scotmany, and Yos.
I would choose from those three, but in the end, Flameaxe, I would choose your target with the same method you have been using. It works.

Hell, I pretty much made it clear in my last post I hadn't inved CKD either, so you can add him to the list.

[Shanba]

Skruffs, please don't sacrifice yourself. You *know* your own alignment, so ckd has a better chance of being scum than you.

right, at any rate,

I think shanba should tell his target..., because later when he does claim who he investigated, you wont want a bunch of "well, I looked into this guy and he is dead, or I looked into this guy, and the vig killed him the same night"

if he wont tell us, I would like to know why.

Flameaxe revealing his target prevents the latter. Me revealing my targets simply guarantees more easy kills for the mafia.

[Shanba]

The only thing I can figure that maybe shanba is avoiding is revealing the cleared townies to make it harder for mafia to get rid of people that would show up innocent, but, since shanba is the cop, he already knows that.

This is exactly what I was doing.

[Shanba]

Wait, no it isn't. I misread your statement - what I'm doing, is protecting people who the

town

knows are clear. There's a big difference. If the town knows a player is clear, then that person

will not be lynched

. As such, the scum need to kill them. It's not a case of the mafia already who is and isn't mafia - it's a case of the mafia trying to limit towns information.

[Shanba]

MOD: can we have prods on Pie_is_Good and Sir Tornado?

[Shanba]

I'm not claiming my results, btw. Short of, well, being lynched, I guess, I'm not claiming.

[Shanba]

Can I also assume that if someone you know is innocent is about to be lynched you might let us know, Shanba?

This is correct.

Skruffs, I've given up replying to you now.

[Shanba]

Like I said, not claiming.

[Shanba]

That's fine. You're perfectly allowed to believe I'm scum. But there's no way in hell I'm claiming, and if you think I am you're in for a nasty shock.

[Shanba]

Vote: Sir Tornado

[Shanba]

It's apparent that the doc isn't dead yet. If he were dead, Shanba would have been killed already because the scum would have known he was dead.

As long as the doc is still alive, it is in the town's best interest not to lynch me, even if some people call me scum. If I really am the doc, you will see Shanba die tonight. He hasn't revealed the names of his townies yet. This is why I now advocate that the doc protect Shanba instead of me. A delay of another day with the mafia NKing me will mean Shanba gets an additional investigation at least before the doc is killed.

Kehlvaster, I can only assume you have gone insane, or something.

[Shanba]

Khel, I've seen many, many townies lose their cool, and have done it myself (I've also done it as scum, but that's another story).

@Sir T: Jus' die already

[Shanba]

Shanba, as far as I remember, there was a certain other game which I played with you and in which you totally pwned me when I was your scumbuddy...I was such an impressionable newb back then.

Heehee. I remember that game. It was fun

However, I can cie you examples of townies completely losing it if you wish.

[Shanba]

Shannnnnba.
Now that the vig is dead, if you are mafia, you can start 'clearing' a mix of townies and your scum partners. Then, if the doctor gets lynched, you can even be nightkilled by your own partner to 'clear' you. Your alignment won't even show up on death, so there will be no way to validate your claims or not. Even if you are town, the same situation applies. But you want to wait until it's lylo or something, go right ahead.

DO you see why I wanted to keep the FULLY CLAIMED, CLEARED role protected, now?

Yes, I completely understand, and I understood at the time, but saying the doc should protect Flameaxe and only Flameaxe is counterproductive. Why? It guarantees Flameaxe's safety, sure. But my role is just a little less important than his. If instead of only protecting me, the doc WIFOM's between the two of us, that's much better, as scum won't want to attack either of us for fear of being doc-stopped.

I've thought it over, and I don't want to be caught in lylo having to claim my targets and weaken my claim. So, I'll get some things down for definite now, in order to substantiate my claims later. I can clear three people. Sir Tornado is not one of them, hence my vote on him. I have not gotten any guilties, and none of my targets have been killed by the scum. This post is also a breadcrumb, though it's not obvious what the breadcrumb is. Well it might be, depending on how closely you've been following my posts, and how good your imagination is.

[Shanba]

Also, Sir T is blatantly ignoring this thread.

I'll prob say more stuff tomorrow, assuming I haven't caught me a scumbag.

[Shanba]

I was considering the possibility I should be lynched myself, but eh. I think if we can hit scum soon it's not necessary.

[Shanba]

SL has been banned (the most recent issue being more flooding) temporarily.

If I can figure out how to limit his access to just Mafia forums, I will do that instead.

[Shanba]

ShadowLurker.

[Shanba]

I like a Sir T and Pie replacement. What's up with that?

Ugh, I sort of agree here. I am somewhere on page 12 with exams till 7th December...

Too late?

[Shanba]

Wow.

Kinetic, this may be one of the few times I'm agreeing with you all game. I do not have a result on Khelvaster. And yet, I'm not convinced he's scum. The way he claimed... it rings true somehow. I've never really been keen on a Khel wagon. But eh... he's one of the remaining variables. We only have two scum left, we can practically win this by process of elimination. If we leave Khel alive we make it worse in endgame when we can't be sure if he's bullshitting or not.

Gah. I managed to thoroughly confuse myself. I think TS is a better lynch today, but not by much.

[Shanba]

You've missed how the mason role works - he can one night in the game pick a player to be his partner. He has no idea of the alignment/role of that player but can from then on talk to them at night.

[Shanba]

I doubt it.

[Shanba]

I doubt it.

If his partner doesn't show up as mason if lynched... then there is little point in lynching that mason (if vanilla) in order to confirm MoS. Why does MoS and Kinetic say that the mason claim is 100% confirmed, when it appears to be 100% non-confirmable - unless MoS dies (but then we'd lose a townie).

Nah see - cause if MoS claims mason with someone and they confirm it, either they're lying and scum or they're telling the truth and town. It works so long as his partner isn't nightkilled or he's left enough breadcrumbs for it to be absolutely obvious.

[Shanba]

Shanba: Answer this question for me. If you answer it the way I think you will, I will not ask you for your results today. Have you investigated MOS? And if you haven't, how sure are you that he is town?

I have not investigated MoS, but I believe he is town.

[Shanba]

You're all going to hate me right about now, as I didn't get a choice in last night. I'm sorry.

[Shanba]

I was waiting to get a response from MoS about my investigation choice and didn't get back on before deadline. Yes, I know, I screwed up.

Gorrad innocent n1, Skruffs n2, CKD n3.

[Shanba]

scotmany, Guardian, and Pie

I'm 90% sure that it's Scotmany and Pie from this list. From the other list, I still wonder about Khel, but after the no-kill I'm sure enough about him to want to lynch Scot.

Vote: Scotmany12

[Shanba]

I have a guilty. I was shooting for an innocent, too. Kinetic, we get the same result from having you investigated as we do from having you stop someone's lynch, which frees me up to investigate the other townie and rule out a miller. Actually, tbh, I think we'd have to work quite hard to lose this now.

Die Guardianscum Die. I really thought you were town, too.

[Shanba]

Oh, that works. And cause Guardian is scum, we win today. Joy.

Vote: Guardian

[Shanba]

No. We have 4 uncleared, you, me, Kinetic and yvonne. We have three lynches. However, we can clear kinetic by havin me investigate him tonight. I can't sidestep by claiming a guilty as he can't be a miller. So there's no solution that leads to a loss.

[Shanba]

No. We have 4 uncleared, you, me, Kinetic and yvonne. We have three lynches. However, we can clear kinetic by havin me investigate him tonight. I can't sidestep by claiming a guilty as he can't be a miller. So there's no solution that leads to a loss.

Or to put it another way:

If I get an innocent on Kinetic, that confirms him town and we can lynch me/yvonne in any order. If I get a guilty on Kinetic, that clears Yvonne and we can lynch me/Kinetic in any order. If I die overnight, that claers me (as only one scum is left) and we can lynch yvonne/kinetic in any order.

It's genius.

[Shanba]

aright den. Let's get dis show on da road!

[Shanba]

Skruffs MoS Yvonne

[Shanba]

Vote: Guardian

Shanba better investigate Kinetic. No excuses this time. Am I correct in assuming that Skruffs and myself are confirmed since there is only one scum left now, and Shanba confirmed Skruffs? Whoohoo!

yes, you and skruffs are confirmed, as is ckd.

[Shanba]

You mean DGB

[Shanba]

yup, that's entirely true. If I fail to investigate kinetic, I'll be kicking myself for shitting up.

[Shanba]

Out of game/in game. Technically, both are true.

[Shanba]

Unfortunately mass claim wasn't supposed to work with this setup. So you'll surely not see this setup run again.

The mason being able to wait until after a mass claim to select his partner was one piece of ridiculousness that was not supposed to occur...

Eh. The problem was that the town was rewarded for claiming early, by being less affected by the corpseripping mechanic.

[Shanba]

Thanks, I noticed that.

:D

pleasure to be of service

Pointing out the obvious since Jan 07

[Shanba]

as a sidenote,

I hate cops. Ironic, no?