NY 183 - Apocalypse Mafia

[Vampirate]

Protected Rubicon last night.

I just realized, am I confirmed town by this? It seems like I might be, but I could be wrong and getting my hopes up.

You're as cleared as elusive so pretty much yes.

Only way this is false is if BlueBlooded is scum and lied, this would also make RIP scum considering in this scenario he lied as well. Yeah, I really don't see this happening. Also you get town points for the last lynch, and frankly so does RIP considering he started the madman lynch the day before. Thus.

RIP
Davesaz
Rubicon
Grib
BlueBloodedToffee
elusive

these 6 are as cleared as clear gets.


Nero and Pointy are in my town books.

This leaves Taly and PeaceBringer for my POE

[Vampirate]

Perhaps everyone should post their PoE pool in order of scumminess and we lynch whoever is suspected the most.

Mine is Taly > Peace/PointY/Vampirate. The last three are pretty equal in my mind. Taly is my only firm guess for scum right now, with the other three as "maybes" if the game doesn't end with his death.

Fine with me as long as town wins I don't care if i'm alive.

[Vampirate]

Before we lynch Drixx or myself BlueBlooded, Grib and Peace should agree to the plan of action Pointy brought up.

This.

Peace is confirmable.

Grib guards BBT
Peace tracks BBT

BBT waits to see Peace's result before coming out and saying who he visited.


Scum tracker is still possible but it would prove whether or not Peace really is one.

Grib, Blue, Peace, thughts?

[Vampirate]

I'm not voting for either yet as they both have solid track records. I want to hear from Nero first before I make any decisions on voting.

[Vampirate]

There is no way scum have two role-blockers.

What is this 'ascetic'?

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Ascetic

It means actions against Nero do not work except for kills. It doesn't really guarantee alignment imo as the wiki says the alignment varies.

[Vampirate]

Also RIP, while we're talking about strange possible happenings. Are you certain that none of your predecessors used a shot before you arrived, causing a no result because you were out of shots?

I'm sure this isn't the case, because idk why the mod would pm "no result" instead of "you're out of shots", but I was really not expecting an ascetic this game, and this is the only other possibility that makes any sort of sense.

The problem is that if there

is

is another roleblocker, RIP would be the obvious target for a roleblock, especially since he wasn't the intended kill. But that possibility just seems so strange.

Remember RIP claimed to be vanilla at the time, it might have been a gambit to clear someone (get scum to think he's out of checks) and also to try and get another person cleared.

[Vampirate]

I'd like to hear an explanation from RIP before lynching either of them.

I'd rather hear from Nero first as he'd either confirm or deny the claim. What people read into the conform or denial is another story.

[Vampirate]

Also if Nero confirms RIP'S check then RIP is a true virtual town clear.

[Vampirate]

My explanation is thus. If RIP is scum it's easy to fake checks and clear other players for detective town credit. However unless RIP was a scum cop how would he fake and know if Nero was ascetic?

Given RIP'S track record so far if Nero confirms RIP'S check then RIP is 99% town.

[Vampirate]

Scum!RIP would fake a check on someone instead of claiming to get no result.

Yes/no? Would he be worried about clearing someone and narrowing the mislynch pool?

If RIP faked this then he's going to look really bad if Nero counters this, also while possible I doubt there's a 2nd role blocker.

Another thing to factor in is this was RIP's last check. Would scum RIP risk the possibility of this blowing up in his face just to put suspicion on Nero?

On the last check I think it'd be far more beneficial to clear Nero and continue to get more town credit.

The odds of there being an ascitic are probably low, the odds of RIP getting caught in a lie of 18 people clearing Nero should Nero be ascitic is even lower. The safe route would be to call Nero town imo if RIP was scum.

[Vampirate]

No way a scum RIP would fake something like this. If/when we lynch Nero, if he flips VT that's a lot of attention directed back at RIP, which scum wouldn't want. Not with only 1 or 2 of them remaining and not this far from LyLo.

The only way this makes sense as a scum move is as a bus, and that is a terrible idea for similar reasons as above. Namely: it's too far from LyLo for the scumteam to intentionally cut their numbers in half (and presumably be facing a 1v8 tomorrow)

It's been nearly a day and no response from Nero. That in itself is rather telling, I think.

Woah hold on there, I think Nero has earned enough to at least let us hear his side of the story first.

Thing is i'd rather avoid a Nero or RIP lynch atm. RIP is almost guaranteed town and i'm still town reading Nero.

[Vampirate]

Also if Nero confirms RIP'S check then RIP is a true virtual town clear.

How would I do this? If I were scum its not like I would claim that I'm scum and as town its not like I'd know if RIP targeted me or not so

Considering you denied RIP's claim the theory is lost.

If you confirmed RIP's claim of being ascitic then RIP is pretty much guaranteed to be a cop as only a cop would be able to get that result. It would be very rash to claim he got no result if he was scum as the odds of him actually being right are pretty low and I doubt there's a 2nd roleblocker though possible.

In other words faking a no result opens up a can of worms.


We need RIP to come out to tell his part still.

[Vampirate]

so

who wants to play cards?

Blackjack is always fun

VOTE: RIP

um why?

[Vampirate]

I get that and all but I don't think he's going to be scared of that vote really.

At this point we are waiting for Drixx to read and catch up as well so yeah.

[Vampirate]

Soooooo....11 people alive.

Nobody posting.

We should lynch Drixx now.

Until RIP clarifies his check were not doing anything.

[Vampirate]

I'll try and give my opinions when I get home from work.

[Vampirate]

Actually I want to expand that question:

To people not voting either Nero or Rip: why not? It's pretty apparent that one or both of them is lying.

I agree with elusive, it's not obvious. Nero seems town and shouldn't really have claimed VT as ascetic. Meanwhile RIP was being treated as nearly confirmed town before this: why would he throw that away? What does he even gain from it?

It wouldn't exactly surprise me if we lynch RIP and he flips cop, we lynch Nero and he flips VT, and then when the game is over we find out there's a mafia JOAT and Shinobi laughs at us all for setup spec. Or RIP is somehow really confused and wasn't roleblocked at all.

I think You're and other people as well are letting a bit too much paranoia get to them as this is quite a bit of wifom here.

Honestly I see no reason for scum RIP to need esky draw attention to himself and fake a no result. Considering both players were in good standing before this it would make more sense to make Nero cleared and kill him at night than this. Much more simple and much less hassle and less chance of backfiring.

[Vampirate]

Try playing it from the beginning.

Or try starting when you yourself is at L-2

[Vampirate]

OK i'm just tempted to vote Nero now, but before I do, Rubicon besides being ascetic or having a roleblock on RIP what other possible scenarios can be taken for 'No Result'?

[Vampirate]

So I'm the lynch of the day then?

[Vampirate]

I like the PointY wagon.

I wonder why.

Let me check who's voting for Pointy

hmmm

I'll be back with the list of people who are on the Pointy wagon brb.

[Vampirate]

Welp I probably don't look too good right now.

I'd go with a Nero lynch today.

[Vampirate]

By the way, I just realized Ricastle flipped unlimited-shot Friendly Neighbor. I sent Shinobi a PM asking if this is correct, but if it is then RIP is the only x-shot PR in the game.

Didn't Ricastle say it a 2 shot friendly neighbour or do you think that was a gambit?

[Vampirate]

At this point it's mute since everyone knows he's a FN and anyone can claim anything.

[Vampirate]

Soooo, we're lynching RIP or Nero Today, right?

Pretty much, at this point i'm inclined to go for Nero because of his denial of being Ascetic and already claiming townie.

[Vampirate]

RIP, Nero or Drixx.

Not that i'm complaining but how'd I get off your pool of suspect lists, at least for today?

[Vampirate]

My reads are straightforward.

TOWN

elusive: town by meta, doc protect

Grib: town because I don't think we have a serial killer (multiple nights with no kill, no nights with more than one kill) and because I know how to read him and he's town

BBT: likely town based on role and cop clear (whether or not RIP is telling the truth)

Vampirate: lean town based on the effort he's put into solving the game and also posts like #3024 which looks more like scum whiteknighting town

davesaz: town by Grib clear -- small risk of godfather, but if he were a godfather he couldn't have roleblocked RIP

SUSPECTS

RIP: no idea how to read any of the people in this slot

Drixx: scummy but couldn't have roleblocked RIP

Nero Cain: I'm willing to lynch him purely because him being ascetic/commuter makes sense mechanically, but I'm expecting him to flip town

I'd say we lynch Nero, then failing that Drixx

As for Nero, if someone put a rolestopper on him claimign anytime would be great. (up to your discretion of course)

I doubt there's another roleblocker, while possible I too doubt it.

The only reason left is Nero is lying as scum or as town.

Should Nero end up as VT then I guess we have another role blocker in play but that's lame.

[Vampirate]

Are you ruling out the possibility that RIP is just lying?

No, but how would he benefit as scum unless he has some master plan that could handle all the questions coming his way.

Seems unnecessary work for scum.

[Vampirate]

Just lynch either Vamp, Drixx, Nero in any order you want.

VOTE: Nero Cain

Saying you're town 1000 times doesn't make it so.

At some point whether i'm alive or dead people will need to figure out what to do with this slot.

[Vampirate]

I'm really beginning to suspect BBT. His normally aggressive scum hunting is absent, and a fake doc claim is trivial to make on a no-kill night. Doubly so if it hides the obvious fact that the no-kill could be because a likely scum suspect was flaked at the time. He could even be the scum who didn't submit the kill, for that matter, even on purpose for the obvtown doc claim. The only risk would be if there was a counter claim, and we already have doubled roles (presumed town) which means a counter claim could be WIFOM'd away with ease.

It's easy to fake except if BBT is scum so is RIP because RIP town confirmed BBT's slot with a detective remember.

If BBT flips scum we have to lynch RIP as well for lying about BBT's slot being town.

While this scenario is possible, I don't think it's likely.

[Vampirate]

Also of course if BBT is scum that opens up a can of worms considering both Rubicon and elusive were town confirmed with BBT's check. That scenario would really complicate things as then in this scenario Rubicon and Elusive are not confirmed town.

On the other hand they indirectly would be though because it's almost assured RIP is scum for lying about BBT.

If either RIP or BBT flip scum we lynch the other.


I still find that all to be unlikely though as I doubt RIP would want to be grouped to BBT's slot like that if the above were true.

[Vampirate]

I'm open to lynch Drixx obviously but I would prefer a Nero lynch.

I just highly doubt he's a VT, and so far no one has claimed to have put a rolestop on him.

Thus either there is another roleblocker (I doubt it) or he's a PR and has lied about it twice.

I mean, on one hand I do kinda agree with Pointy that this makes very little tactical sense as scum but then its absolutely horrible to do as town and I would be ok with watching this hang 'cause I don't think keeping him around is a good idea at all.

I think there's 4 possible things here.

1. RIP thinks I'm scum so he's gambiting.
2. RIP is scum.
3. The mod made a mistake.
4. He's stupid and can't find his pm.

1 or 2 seem like the most possible to me.

This post is really reaching in particular imo to defend himself.

1. This is stupidly rash and while RIP is no stranger to gambiting I highly highly doubt this.
2. If RIP is scum so is BBT, again, I highly doubt this
3. No, this one isn't going to cut it
4. No, this sin't going to cut it


Seriously this is how Nero is trying to defend himself here, by reaching into theories that are a big stretch at this point.

[Vampirate]

Thus either there is another roleblocker (I doubt it) or he's a PR and has lied about it twice.

Also, I classify being scum as a PR, just on the opposite side.

[Vampirate]

I'm VT

[Vampirate]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... all-trades

Jack of all trades., it's my first game with that role but there it is.

[Vampirate]

still waiting for Drixx.

Nero scum equity is low. This is not how Nero plays scum unless he's the last one and is going all out.

^ I agree with this. But he's been playing that way all game.

Rubicon meta aside.

Can you please give an explanation that makes sense if Nero is town on RIP's check 'no result' claim?

Do you believe Nero is a VT?

If Nero is a VT than what possible outside influence could explain the outcome of what happened on the no result that is not only possible but also plausible as well.

[Vampirate]

Do you think Grib is scum Drixx?

Exactly how far have you read up to?

[Vampirate]

There's a lot of scummy in Grib's ISO. I'm not sure I've got the energy to do an ISO commentary on him just at the moment. Grib and Davesaz make very good sense as a posited remaining scum team.

I'm much more interested in what you guys think of my evaluation of Davesaz. I was looking specifically for things that indicate that his posts are all part of a fictional narrative, and I think I found them.

Interestingly, I wasn't planning to do that with davesaz until he dropped the naked vote on me and it reminded me of a post he made just after I replaced in so I went ISO diving. I have some stuff to take care of, but I'd appreciate any thoughts pertaining to what I've already posted, and I'll respond when I get back.

It's actually pretty simple, Grib towncleared Dave.

Thus if Dave turns up as scum than Grib was lying and has a very high chance of being scum himself. Grib has claimed JOAT.

[Vampirate]

I'm okay with doing them in any order, though I personally think Nero is least likely.

Why RIP first though? Are you trying to get the most information out of the lynch?

[Vampirate]

Rubicon, if RIP is lynched and is a 2 shot cop as he claims what is your next move?

Go after:

-Vampirate
-Nero
-someone else?

[Vampirate]

VOTE: RIP

Vampirate, my strategy requires lynching both you and Nero Cain if RIP flips town, since that should guarantee at least one scum lynch. Does that worry you?

If i'm town not really

If i'm scum sure

[Vampirate]

Eh, what is me saying 'i'm town' going to convince anyone that i'm actually town. If people in a game believe you're scum saying you're town is not going to convince anyone.

It's basically an un-provable statement on it's own merits.

[Vampirate]

Wow, I have a long way to go haha.

[Vampirate]

Looking back House was definitely White Knighting me trying to earn town cred.

[Vampirate]

Why the hell would RIP lie like that? Shoula trusted my guy on House more.

He had to. He was the last of our beautiful Scum team, flying solo.

Honestly, I think it was an unnecessary risk unless he had some kind of reverse psychology thing going on.

[Vampirate]

Why do you people keep changing your avatars? Do you have avatar adhd?

[Vampirate]

Sooo is that scum QT ever going to be released?

[Vampirate]

Thank you for not replacing out! And RIP, Boonskiies and ika.
And Drixx since he probably wanted to.

Is this directed at KC or myself?