Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Mgm]

Actually, much worse than odd, because we now know that at least one of CES/Mgm HAS to be scum.

That would make today very easy for me. How do you know at least one of us is scum? How is CES so sure Thesp is scum?

[Mgm]

MBL: You asked CES what wagon he wouldn't follow Glork onto. I'd like to ask you the same. What person would you not be willing to lynch right now?

[Mgm]

MBL: Before you say you didn't notice them, I'd like you to respond to the posts that were made during your lengthy analyses.

Non-voters: If you had to put all your eggs in one basket right now and vote, who'd get the chop?

Everyone: Who are you least willing to lynch right now?

[Mgm]

CES, I want a single name for both questions. (please specify which name is in answer to which question)

[Mgm]

I'm sure I attacked you too. How is that any different from Glork's attacks?

[Mgm]

f I had to choose between you and Glrok, I'd probably go with you, as Thespscum does not imply Glroktown

Actually, Thespscum means that Glork has to be town, and I have to be town, due to the lack of quicklynch.

If you're scum together with MBL a lack of quicklynch would hardly be exonorating.

[Mgm]

Everyone: Who are you least willing to lynch right now?

I really, really don't like this question and don't think anyone should answer it. Flaming FOS of botherment: Mgm.

(I'm sad to see some people have answered it already.)

Right back at you.

FOS: Thesp

Have a good think about why that question is important and non-scummy.

Mgm, what do you think of Cogito Ergo Sum?

Ã

[Mgm]

Really? I thought it was evident.
It's starting to look like people are disagreeing with me just for the sake of it.
MBL/Glork/anyone, care to enlighten these two or should I?

[Mgm]

Of course you do. That way you can tailor your response to fit. I don't think so.

[Mgm]

So other people who aren't called Thesp can still answer it before I explain.

[Mgm]

That is a very, very bad idea. No one should listen to Thesp until he can come up with some awesome reason why we should. I can think of at least one compelling reason we shouldn't.

[Mgm]

Well, I'm trying to make scum commit to something for one thing. If they say "I want Stoofer lynched" they're not getting away with not following through on what they said when the opportunity arises. The same goes for least suspicious.

I have another motive for asking, but revealing that would make any answers that come after it useless, hence me not telling.

[Mgm]

If my questions are so bad, then telling you might thoughts on CES is just as bad.
Double standards, people.

[Mgm]

Fine. But please note Thesp's double standards too. If answering my question is a bad idea, I see no reason why answering his (which is very similar) is any better.

I think CES has climbed the ladder of suspiciousness and the person I would least like to lynch is Glork.

[Mgm]

I might be least likely to lynch Glork, but that doesn't mean he's off the hook. He made few good points and he has shown he understands my reasoning (contrary to others who have called my play stupid in some form or another). He's merely at the bottom of my suspect list because everyone else is more suspicious.

I found the initial reason CES got attacked flimsy, but he became consistently more scummy throughout the game. I can be short about it. I regret the previous stance I took on him.

Mgm, what do you think of Glork's certainty on CDB, Zindy and Nightfall's alignments before they were lynched?

Perhaps it's scummy, but he often overstates his certainty (at least that is the read I get of him). I think it's more of a play style and I wouldn't be surprised if he's simply good at reading people.

Thanks for answering the question MBL. That answer helped a lot.

[Mgm]

I think CES has climbed the ladder of suspiciousness

Can you be more specific? When did he climb it? How high has he climbed it? What did he do? This could mean almost anything.

Is there anything else you want me to broadcast to the scum?

[Mgm]

I think CES has climbed the ladder of suspiciousness

Can you be more specific? When did he climb it? How high has he climbed it? What did he do? This could mean almost anything.

Is there anything else you want me to broadcast to the scum?

I still don't understand how you can be okay with you asking everyone's hypothetical lynch target and everyone's most trusted player, then getting all huffy when somebody asks you to give your opinions on CES.

That don't make no sense to me.

I'm okay with with someone asking, just not the person who refuses to answer me. He first refuses to answer me and now suddenly his own questions enter the realm that just moments ago were scummy to him. I don't see how telling if CES is 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th on the list is gonna help anything.

I intentionally kept my own questions restricted to the basic neccesitities. Thesp seems to be working to a complete suspect list. Are you telling me you want those shared?

[Mgm]

Glork, if you're ready to vote, you must have incredible confidence that CES is scum and you must have a pretty good idea of who his scumpartner is.

Why should he know that already? There's a whole lot of info to be had from today's voting patterns and whatever happens tomorrow. There's plenty of opportunities to collect definitive evidence.

[Mgm]

Mgm, please take for granted for a moment that I was telling the truth about thinking Glork was the cop and covering his tracks the day CDB was lynched.

Please explain your case for voting me in the absence of that incorrect assumption you've made.

I have given other reasons and you discredited them all by somehow calling them crap and nonsensical. Even if we forget that one bit, there's also the fact you did what you did what the scum would be doing according to your own analysis (even though you said that is not the case afterwards).

And the whole "discredit Mgm's theories" is very unlike you (or anyone). In the X years I've played I've seen a lot, but I can remember only one time my play was being called stupid and that was by a scumbag DragonPhoenix who went on to claim a non-existent role and get himself lynched.

[Mgm]

Why should he know that already? There's a whole lot of info to be had from today's voting patterns and whatever happens tomorrow. There's plenty of opportunities to collect definitive evidence.

You're naive or scum if you're not paying close attention to potential scumpartnerships as you analyze the current gamestate.

Oh, I'm looking at potential partnerships allright, but Glork does not need to have "a pretty good idea" who it is before voting. All he needs to know before he votes is if CES is scum. (If he doesn't tell, he might get lucky and see his top suspect nightkilled)

[Mgm]

So I'm fairly confident in eliminating:

Glork-Patrick
Glork-Thesp
Thesp-Patrick
as our scumpair, meaning that I'm in the unique position of knowing that Thesp can only be scum if he's paired with CES.

How do you combine that with the fact CES is at his throat. Do you see it as bussing?

[Mgm]

Glork does not need to have "a pretty good idea" who it is before voting. All he needs to know before he votes is if CES is scum. (If he doesn't tell, he might get lucky and see his top suspect nightkilled)

This from the guy who asked two days ago:

If you had to put all your eggs in one basket right now and vote, who'd get the chop? Who are you least willing to lynch?

Epiphany or gambit? It looks to me like you're just arguing for the sake of argument at this point, because you're contradicting yourself.

I don't see my question mention anything about scum partners for your top suspects because I didn't ask about that.

[Mgm]

In case no one noticed, the scum can win by lynching anyone but their partner. Therefore it's extremely unlikely that someone who commits to voting for someone early on is paired with them. People who don't want to lynch each other are possibly connected (though be on the lookout for changing behavior that doesn't fit what was said). I'll leave scum pairings for myself for others to analyse (I'll leave them out because I know I'm innocent myself). I've distilled things down to the following possibly pairs based on voting behavior and the answers to my questions (with the assumption that scum would've quicklynched MBL if they could:

MBL/Glork
MBL/Patrick
MBL/Thesp

So despite the fact 4 people want to see CES dead, MBL has the most possibly connections left. I was hoping for the analysis to give me other ideas, but it only confirmed MBL is my lynch.

(I'll post the spreadsheet as soon as I get the chance.)

[Mgm]

MBL/Glork
MBL/Patrick
MBL/Thesp

I must be missing something here. Are you saying these are the only scumpairs you're seriously considering at this point? How did CES get off the list entirely?

Yes, scum could be bussing each other, but based on the fact they could easily win today if they don't, I don't think they are at the moment. These are not the only possible pairs I'm considering, these are merely based on the theory I put forward. In that particular case CES dropped off the list because 4 people wanted him lynched, I'm not his partner and he's at Thesp's throat his only remaining possible buddy. If he is scum, I think he's probably paired with Thesp, since when he started voting him ages ago "no bussing will win scum the game" wasn't an issue yet.

[Mgm]

Why did you drop Patrick from your list of possible candidates to vote for?

then suddenly Mgm appeared on his probably town list and CES on the likely scum list because Mgm distanced from CDB effectively

I distanced myself from CDB? f anything, not voting him had exactly the opposite effect.

[Mgm]

Well, telling you that would pretty much reveal my entire suspect list and I believe that would help the scum a bit too much. But since you haven't been called on that, it appears no one agrees with me.

CES is in shared second place behind MBL together with you.

[Mgm]

Well, telling you that would pretty much reveal my entire suspect list and I believe that would help the scum a bit too much. But since you haven't been called on that, it appears no one agrees with me.

CES is in shared second place behind MBL together with you.

How did he get there? Why is he so suspicious to you?

He's done all sorts of odd stuff since I protected him early in the game. On their own, they're not much, but together they are becoming too much to ignore. I still don't know why he suspects Thesp. And I have a slight feeling he is connecting himself (which would help his body lynch me and win should CES ever get the chop).

[Mgm]

My gut says Mgm is trying to ease his way onto busing CES after a whole game of defending him. I caught a similar vibe from how he acted around CDB to how he is acting now.

And what the heck would I gain from that. If I 'bus' CES half the town wants to lynch me next. I wouldn't survive that by a long shot. If I am scum, my best bet would not be to bus my scum buddy but to lynch someone else and win.

What sorts of odd things? This is still very vague.

All the things everyone else wants to lynch him for. If that's still vague you'd better do some reading.

[Mgm]

Everyone found the CDB claim suspicious, but at the end of the day I was willing to wait it out to see if it was true. I still wasn't on his wagon. That looks nowhere near comparable to me.

Multiple people already think I am connected to CES. If he dies and turns up scum, it really doesn't matter if I'm on the wagon or not. I'd still be suspect number one. I don't have anything to gain with that.

[Mgm]

Note: I might have limited access until Sunday, if things are better than expected, I'll let you know.

[Mgm]

I want to see CES make one final concise statement about why he suspects Thesp.

[Mgm]

Yes, that access thing was a false alarm, my access shouldn't be any different than a normal weekend.

[Mgm]

Erm, CES. There's 2 days between my question and your post.
Why didn't you respond to my question at all.
You know I could be switching to you if you're not convincing, do you?

[Mgm]

I have to assume MBL was just trying to confuse us then.

This looks a whole lot like trying to make the facts fit the theory, rather than make the theory fit the facts.

Do you have another explanation?

I though the vote without explanation was unusual, but reasonable enough.

Votes without an explanation are never reasonable. That comment was particularly badly placed after CES accused you of being linked to MBL. Are you trying to give him more reasons than just gut feeling or something?

[Mgm]

Interesting dancing there.

I went to bed around 2:50 am last night, if I'm working it out right, MBL placed that vote at 4:18 am my time. Anyone else who was around, was MgM around then? MgM is from holland, so it would be at a time when he would be in bed I'd have thought. Still a strange looking vote to place; looked like a quicklynchy type one.

Are we talking England in the UK, cause if you are, I'm positive I was asleep at that time. 4:18 would be 5:18 am my time, but I never wake before 6 am (I sleep even longer in weekends).

[Mgm]

Semantics, I could've said "badly posted" and it would've worked just as well.
The thing is, if you are not trying to get people to vote you then why did you say this.

Here is the accusation of the link I mentioned:

MBL must've been waiting for Thesp to come on. If Thesp had checked the thread, the game would've been over.

Why did you call MBL's unexplained vote reasonable, while any other unexplained comment from a player usually draws votes in mafia?

[Mgm]

Thesp, do you honestly expect me to compare possible game-deciding votes to random day one bandwagoning?

[Mgm]

Let's see how that fits into my spreadsheet. Now where is that link I posted?

Mgm, do you still find me to be most suspicious at this point?

Yes, I do.

[Mgm]

Mgm, will you be linking us to the spreadsheet?

Didn't I do that already? I'll work the possible couples that are less likely due to lack of quicklynches into the list and link to it tomorrow.

[Mgm]

I'll let you read what parts you want to read and I wouldn't mind seeing Mgm's thing as well. Actually I would be pretty interested in seeing Mgm's thing.

Maybe you would sound less like a dirty old man if you called it a 'spreadsheet' instead of 'my thing'...

[Mgm]

Great! I don't know how I managed to do it, but I lost the spreadsheet file.
I'll go hunt for it, but I'm pretty sure it's not gonna get posted today.
My apologies. I hope I'll have it tracked down by monday.

[Mgm]

Or I could end the game and lose it for the town.
I do note that CES' lack of rebuttals is suspicious, but I'd rather take some more time to go over things again than to make the wrong decision.

[Mgm]

Here is the spreadsheet as promised: http://www.glpics.com/mgm/mafia/Mafia60.xls

(The latest bits that made me mention the sheet again aren't included yet.)

[Mgm]

Please consider giving it a bit longer. I know I won't be available much today and it's quite possible other players have the same problem. Also, I want to incorporate the last bit of non-hammering info in my spreadsheet to see if it makes any difference (especially a difference that would make me change my mind). I don't want someone to be able to cast a deciding vote until after that is done.

[Mgm]

Do you fear an MBL/Glork pairing?

Not particularly, but it can't hurt to be careful and consider it anyway.

[Mgm]

Do you fear an MBL/Glork pairing?

Not particularly, but it can't hurt to be careful and consider it anyway.

I read this as, "Please second-guess yourself about suspicions of CES." Did anyone else?

You should've read it as: "Mgm is second-guessing his own decision." I had a birthday party yesterday and I wanted a chance to do a final analysis, which obviously would've been hard to do then. I'll do that today. At least then I'll know I've done

everything

I can.

[Mgm]

Ah, didn't think of that. Oh well. I'll copy the revised version into a post then.

[Mgm]

Since Patrick and Glork had plenty of time to find out when the rest of us where online in order to find a convient moment to finish off one of the bandwagonees, it's safe to assume they're not scum together.

Since we could work out a way to kill CES if I was scum with either of them. Them voting, me switching, that's unlikely too. (The same goes for a Thesp/Glork or Thesp Patrick pairing).

Thesp, Glork and Patrick also show interest in lynching CES. It's a foolish to kill a scumbuddy if not doing so can win you the game instantly. (A good scum can find some other option).

CES could be voting MBL out of self-preservation, but I'm not sure he'd do that if they were buddies (it also goes the other way around, MBL voted CES with no particularly stringent reason). One of them evening out the votes almost ensures one of them gets the chop, when voting a third player into the pile of top suspects could get different results.

Options left:

CES - possible buddy: Mgm, for those who don't believe I'm innocent
Glork - possible buddy: MBL, none of the other combos work.
Mgm - possibly buddy: CES (see above) or Thesp - again, I'm not going to include MBL in those options. (If we were buddies, I could simply lynch CES and win the game).
MBL - possibly buddy: Patrick or Thesp - neither of them are currently interested in lynching him. It would make perfect sense for them not to want to lynch a buddy. So they are either going to vote the other guy or wait to incriminate a third.

There, I've done my analysis and I'm not moving my vote. MBL is still the best lynch.

Code: Select all

		possible?				
CES	Glork	no!		Player	chop	non-vote
CES	Mgm	XXXXX		Patrick	CES	-
CES	MBL	XXX		CES	MBL	Mgm
CES	Patrick	no!		Glork	CES	Patrick
CES	Thesp	no!		Thesp	CES(?)	-
				Mgm	MBL	Glork
Glork	Mgm	no!		MBL	CES	-
Glork	MBL					
Glork	Patrick	no!				
Glork	Thesp	no!				

Mgm	MBL	XXX				
Mgm	Patrick	no!				
Mgm	Thesp	XXXXX				

MBL	Patrick	
MBL	Thesp	

Patrick	Thesp	no!

1755		


XXXXX	I am innocent	
XX 	no quicklynch	
XXX 	chop vote
no!	this pair would have dropped the chance to win.

[Mgm]

For completeness' sake:
Thesp - possible buddy: Mgm or MBL
Patrick - possible buddy: MBL

[Mgm]

I'm the only alternative, and I get zero sense that anyone's interested in voting me.

Wrong. If you don't count the person who is voting, they have 5 alternatives of people who they can vote. Focussing on the two are already being voted might get an easier lynch, but by no means the only one.

[Mgm]

The problem again with that is you seem to be assuming that scum will hardly ever bus each other in lylo which simply isn't true. Just because someone expresses an interest in lynching someone doesn't mean they can't be scum together. Also, MGM/Thesp is off the table as a pairing.

Most of those are based on scum partners who can vote to kill a voted player, but regarding MBL/CES, it's possible for scum to bus their partner, but it makes no sense to start the day that way when they can wait and see how the day develops. There might not even be a need for a such a gambit.

[Mgm]

If CES is town, we lose as soon as Glork votes.
If he's scum, I'll look scummy as hell tomorrow, get lynched and we still lose.
I think this game is a lost cause unless I can convince Glork to vote MBL (not happening) or convince at least one person I'm not scum with CES (unlikely but at least possible).

*crosses fingers*

Vote: CES

(For the record, if CES is innocent, the scum pair is MBL&Thesp or MBL&Patrick)

[Mgm]

Annoying how anyone has something scummy pointing to them:
When I asked my questions,

MBL

was late to the party so he would've known that he would have to choose to chop CES to blend with the masses. At that point CES's death was pretty much unavoidable already.

In post 1702, MBL states that

Patrick

nudged him of the CES wagon onto Zindaras. Naturally, Patrick would've wanted to keep CES alive if they were scum together, so that could've been a covert scummy action. He also states in post 1762: "Actually, Thespscum means that Glork has to be town, and I have to be town, due to the lack of quicklynch." That sounds like he didn't quicklynch on purpose to look more innocent (but it depends on the then available wagons)

Glork

claims he knew Fritzler was a cop and tried to draw fire from him. This didn't work. Perhaps because Glork was part of the killing party. In post 1745, MBL does a recap analysis and asks Glork a question: "Glork, why CDB and not CES in your top five scumlist at this point?". I know: CES is GF, CDB isn't. Then there is also the fact that CES calls both me and Glork least suspicious. It's a common scum tactic to call innocents and scumbuddies in one breath, but mentioning how he finds Glork more scummy for his attacks leaves him a way out.

Right now, my gut feeling has deserted me, but seeing as how everyone I trust turns out to be scum (CDB and CES), I'd say a healthy

FOS: Glork

is probably well-placed.

[Mgm]

Vote counts for analysis

(Known scum bolded, currently alive players underlined)
----
End of Day 1 Vote Count

AndrewS: 8 (Thesp

ChannelDelibird

spectrumvoid

Mgm

CES

Fritzler IH

Glork

)
IH: 4 (Ether

Patrick

AndrewS Zindaras)
Mgm: 1 (

MrBuddyLee

)
spectrumvoid: 1 (Adele)
Ether: 1 (Nightfall)
Nightfall: 1 (Ether)

----
End of Day 2 Vote Count (no one lynched)

Thesp: 6 (

ChannelDelibird Cogito Ergo Sum

Adele

Mgm

Glork

Zindaras)
Ether: 3 (

MrBuddyLee

Nightfall Thesp)
Mgm: 1 (

Patrick

)
Adele: 1 (Fritzler)
Nightfall : 1 (Ether)

Not voting: Mr Stoofer

----
End of Day 3 Vote Count

ChannelDelibird: 6 (Thesp Fritzler

MrBuddyLee

Glork

Patrick

CES

)
Thesp: 2 (

ChannelDelibird

Mgm

)
Cogito Ergo Sum: 1 (Nightfall)


Not voting: Ether Zindaras

----
End of Day 4 Vote Count

Battle Mage: 5 (

CES

Glork

Thesp

Patrick

Battle Mage)
MrBuddyLee: 2 (

Mgm

CrashTextDummie)

Not voting:

MBL

----
End of Day 5 Vote Count

Cogito Ergo Sum: 3 (Thesp

MBL

Patrick

Mgm

)
MrBuddyLee: 1 (

CES

)

Not voting:

Glork

----

[Mgm]

Of interest:
Apart from the last day when my vote cut him off, Glork was on the leading wagon in each of the days' end of day vote count which could indicate he was going with the masses regardless of the outcome.

MBL and Patrick could've lynched an innocent Thesp day two, but didn't, again leaving Glork suspect.

MBL was early on both scum lynches, providing the tipping point vote on CDB and didn't lynch the townies with the leading bandwagon on the other days.

[Mgm]

I meant "tipping point" as in point at which the votes became a steaming bandwagon.

I will also point out that the reason Thesp was killed is probably not only because he was confirmed innocent, but because like Patrick, he's been so sure that I'm town that MBL wouldn't have stood a chance of surviving today. MBL had to kill Thesp because he figured you'd fall in line with him, and he'd have to convince Patrick to turn on me.

With me convinced of his guilt yesterday (in fact tying him as a possible scum mate to CES) and me thinking you were innocent yesterday, I can't see how MBL could've possibly predicted I would change my opinions as radically as I did. If I didn't do the analysis I did, leaving me alive wouldn't make his chances better at all (after all I believed he was guilty, considered Glork innocent - just like Thesp). If I were the MBL and he was the final scumbucket, I would've killed me for revenge (for lynching CES).

As for Thesp dying: I noticed how several people were willing to pair MBL with CES yesterday, so if Thesp didn't, that would make for a perfect reason to kill him. -- Hmmm, that needs checking.

I need to reread the whole "Fritzler investigated Thesp" thing again, because I forgot how likely it was. In any case, Fritzler didn't flat out say "I investigated Thesp and found him innocent", so confirmed is not the correct term - likely or very likely okay, but not confirmed. (Where was that XXXXXX link someone posted earlier about it?).

[Mgm]

If CDB was as useless as Glork says pushing along his wagon doesn't do much to determine his alignment. Scum would have no problem with bussing him (which the end of day vote count clearly shows).

If Thesp was killed because of his accuracy, he must've given the scum some indication he was onto the final one of them. I'm gonna take a look at his posts. I think, rather than killing Thesp for his accuracy, they left me alive for lack of it.

[Mgm]

Hmmm, that would be a fair point. I'll go and read that when I have the time.
Let's for a moment assume Glork is indeed innocent, then you obviously want to see MBL lynched instead of yourself. Why are you less suspicious than him and why the heck didn't you agree with me yesterday?

[Mgm]

What about the first question. If Glork is likely innocent, I need to pick between you and MBL today...

[Mgm]

Instead of convincing me of Glork's or MBL's guilt is there anything you want to say to profess your own presumed innocence?

[Mgm]

CES more active and chirpy than usual, and focussing on an Andrew lynch. This CES meta thing about being more active as scum has been brought up a few times by several people. Glork and Mgm, can you remind me if this is true? Both of you have more experience with CES than me.

From what I've seen CES tends to be quite, so a chirpy CES is a deviation from the norm. Doesn't say much, though.

Actually, I can't stomach the idea that MBL would leave me alive after yesterday. He had no idea I would change my mind today and leaving such a vocal player alive that wants to lynch you is almost certainly suicide. With Glork likely investigated (I still need to check), I'm tending towards Patrick as the last scum which makes those last lines all the more scummy...

FOS:Patrick

[Mgm]

Seeing as Thesp was wrong about his top two suspects, I'm really not confident enough to trust him blindly and go with his third choice when the fourth could be equally valid.

[Mgm]

With Glork likely investigated (I still need to check), I'm tending towards Patrick as the last scum which makes those last lines all the more scummy...

Note that I am the one who actually brought that point into the spotlight. And you apparently haven't even checked it yet to decide if he really was investigated or how likely it is. You don't fill me with confidence in your play Mgm.

I've seen people acknowledge their own scummy behavior and bring up points that could be used against themselves just to look more innocent. That's really not a good reason. I didn't check yet, yes, but that's why I FOS you. If I did check it would probably have been a vote.

[Mgm]

Mgm:

your assessment of "why MBL wouldn't keep Mgm alive" really is nothing more than WIFOM, at best. It is more likely a flawed observation.

I encourage you to look at Thesp's posts. You'll find that Thesp definitely thought that I was pro-town, and he said that Patrick was reasonble, too. Look at this post (Thesp's last posted thoughts on everyone). You and MBL are

CLEARLY

his top suspects over Glork/Patrick. And given that CES died as the Godfather, that leaves only MBL as his top suspect.

You're trying to use Thesp's supposed scumhunting abilities to lead to a suspect when at the same time you rely on the same reasoning to clear yourself. (It almost sounds like you killed Thesp to make it possible to use this reasoning) Thesp was wrong to suspect me. So he could be equally wrong about suspecting MBL or trusting you and Patrick.

[Mgm]

I'd expect you to butter up Fritz at that point, in an attempt to avoid investigation, and that's exactly what happened. You knew Fritz was a cop D2, didn't you? You knew he had an investigation on Thesp and you voted Thesp anyway!

And how would going through with lynching an investigated innocent keep Glork from being investigated? That sounds nothing like buttering up Fritz.

[Mgm]

I've seen people acknowledge their own scummy behavior and bring up points that could be used against themselves just to look more innocent.

Again, what scummy behaviour have I brought up or acknowledged? What are you referring to?

Note to self (and everyone else): I need to cover this in my reread of this day. I forgot exactly what it was about, but I'm pretty sure it was either something he said today or something I covered in my notes.

[Mgm]

Glork, let's suppose for a moment that MBL and CES were both scum.
Why didn't they push or even try to justify an MBL lynch in some way? Lynching CES the GF means I became confirmed innocent. They would've had more wiggle room and no confirmed innocents today, if they gave up MBL instead - a lot better position to be in.

[Mgm]

Oh and here's a nice day 3 post (after the day 2 no lynch):

Patrick says he doesn't want to lynch Thesp and he clearly knows that a lack of votes will lead to a no lynch. So I find it odd that he says Ether needs to get looked at "tomorrow". Why didn't he put his vote where his mouth was and try to get Ether lynched then?

What exactly would be the point in waiting?

[Mgm]

He claims he believed Ether couldn't be lynched (despite several people calling Ether scummy). Well obviously! You can't lynch someone if you don't try.

[Mgm]

MBL, I suggest you revisit day 3, especially post 922.

[Mgm]

Hi MBL. Thanks for the exagerated surprise and outrage. It's entertaining. I admit to my vote on mgm being useless, since I didn't plan on lynching him. And despite the fact that Ether would never have been lynched, maybe I should have voted her. Couldn't be any worse than voting mgm I suppose.

Here's one of those examples of you admitting something scummy, Patrick

[Mgm]

Quickly going through the day 2 and day 3 posts of Glork and Fritzler has me convinced Fritzler investigated Glork during the night in between which means I now have 2 suspects left.

[Mgm]

I'm more interested to know when MBL or Patrick caught on.

[Mgm]

Even if he was happy to kill Thesp, I don't believe he would've been first to follow Thesp and wagon his own GF (creating two confirmed innocents in the process - only one of which he could kill). If he sacrificed himself suspicions against CES would've eased quite a bit considering pairing ideas and he would've left Thesp and Me both on the suspect lists meaning we would've had at least one more suspect in the mix today.

You can of course double-guess anything, but I'd rather refer to both our ideas as theories rather than discrediting one or the other as WIFOM (and I'll be looking that up, because it doesn't look like correct use of the term).

[Mgm]

Oh yeah.

Vote: Patrick

[Mgm]

If they need an answer to that question to make a choice, the scum are moronic.

[Mgm]

From the wiki regarding WIFOM: 'In such games one often may try to use what he knows of his opponent to make a better choice. However, in some situations this leads to recursive reasoning: "But that's just what he wants me to think, so I'll do the opposite. But maybe that's what he wants me to think, so I'll not do the opposite. But maybe that's what he wants me to think..."'

I don't see a way to avoid recursive reasoning.We are all paranoid and the scum obviously prepared some story to explain their actions. There are very few exact facts to base reasoning off in mafia.

1) I'm innocent. I can't be the GF anymore.
2) Glork appears to have been investigated by Fritz.
3) We have two suspects left.

That is all the certainties right there.

[Mgm]

*sigh*

[Mgm]

I did answer his questions. Each time I said something I outlined my train of thought along the way. There's no point in repeating what I said, it doesn't take too long to read what I posted earlier today.
----
He couldn't possibly have known I would change my mind today. Whatever gave you the idea? I was acting like a rabid hound hellbent on killing him for 2 or 3 days straight. If you seriously think you can convince someone like that to change their opinion, I'd love to know how you would handle that.

As for Thesp being the better player. That's just your opinion. He may have called out more scum in this game, but I have experience on my side at least when it comes to registration time on mafiascum and I played several months on the GL before that. I also nailed plenty of scum in other games (including DP), won a game as SK and I'm pretty sure the times I've been killed night one was all that random. I'd say we're pretty evenly matched actually.

The fact you consider Thesp a better player than me is another reason to keep that vote where it is. If you are in fact the one doing the night killing you want to keep the lesser threat (me) or remove the most dangerous of the two -- in your opinion Thesp.

Yes, recursive reasoning can be avoided, but going with your explanation of events isn't neccessarily the way to resolve that.

Without knowing if I would change my mind today, the best play for MBL would be to maximize his chances of survival. Who would you kill? The player who has his teeth in there and isn't changing his mind or the one that is reasoning and open to change? MBL could have been playing a gambit, but why bother if that is potentially suicide while the other way can save your life?

[Mgm]

Glork, MBL SAY SOMETHING! I'm tired of listening to Patrick's whining.

[Mgm]

No, my reasoning is also based on the fact that MBL did nothing what I would've expected a scumbag to do yesterday, which by extension leaves Patrick as the only possibly scum.

[Mgm]

Glork, MBL SAY SOMETHING! I'm tired of listening to Patrick's whining.

This is stupid. We're playing a game of mafia, and I'm not whining, I'm rebutting your points and asking questions. You are just neatly avoiding answering stuff, and that has to stop.

And you are trying to rebut absolutely everything I say, even the reasonable bits and pieces, which is not what you did previously in the game. (The admit to scummy stuff I talked about earlier)

No, my reasoning is also based on the fact that MBL did nothing what I would've expected a scumbag to do yesterday, which by extension leaves Patrick as the only possibly scum.

You said that MBL if scum would attempt to sacrifice himself.

What do you think of his quick third vote on CES?

Also, what did I do yesterday that you would expect from scum?

His vote wasn't the third. It was the second. And I find that second vote, decidedly non-scummy. I would've expected him to wait things out a little longer at least. I'm going to reread the answers to my questions - I meant to do that for a while now. Whoever stalled and answered later on probably parroted the earlier answers because they knew CES was done for. If that last answerer (apart from Thesp) is MBL, there's a smidge of an idea he might be the last scum, if it's you...

[Mgm]

Patrick, why hasn't CES been lynched sooner?

... because a majority has always chosen to lynch someone else? I suppose several people, including me, have somewhat

ignored

him because he always plays useless. Many cop out of trying to read him.

<snip>

Patrick hasn't been on any of the remaining players since Adele claimed. When I reread Patrick I got the sense that I didn't disagree with him often, and when I did, he was very reasonable about it. I feel placated, no offense Patrick

I can try and cause more offence in future if desired.

It's true that I've approached CES and MgM in different ways. You can't approach every player in the same way. When trying to read Fritz for example, much of the read was based on very little, because there is so little to work with. Mgm has used a wide variety of bad logic in this game, and has stayed on certain people for far too long. Obvious way to expose his thought processes is to ask him questions, and disect the bad logic and force him to justify stuff. He's generally failed to do so. With Glork, it's easier to get a meta on him, and I looked for stuff he does as town but doesn't do so much as scum. I've also tried to judge his sincerity in debates where he apparently got worked up or angry, and looked to see whether the stream of consciousness seemed to progress in the way it might for town. With Andrew, I judged him at least partly on what others said and did around him, rather than getting into a large debate with him about the finer points of the defences he was using, which seemed flawed for the most part. Different people, different approach. But yes. I've not really paid much attention to CES compared to some players. Other players I paid relatively little attention to were CDB, Nightfall, fritz maybe others that I can't remember.

Another "admit to scummy behavior "-post. You say Glork is easy to read and to expose my thoughts you need to ask questions. Subcontiously or not, you actually use the word "ignore" when it comes to discussing CES.

[Mgm]

Those question answers and votes are even more complex. I think I need to compare when the votes were 'pledged' and when they were actually made.

[Mgm]

Another "admit to scummy behavior "-post. You say Glork is easy to read and to expose my thoughts you need to ask questions. Subcontiously or not, you actually use the word "ignore" when it comes to discussing CES.

I don't full understand this. But you are contadicting yourself; first you accuse me of trying to rebut everything and not "admitting to scummy posts", then you say that I'm doing too much "admitting to scummy posts". Which is it?

That is one big manipulative misstatement. I said that you are trying to rebut everything I say, not "everything" (post 2023). Also, I'm not talking about "admitting to scummy posts", I said "admitting to scummy behavior"; it's even in the post you quoted.

I'll be more specific. The rebutting but applies specifically to today. The admitting is something you've been doing throughout the game as the previous quotes I posted show.

Read that original post he quoted of mine there Glork. It should be interesting.

Also, why did that quote box say "CES wrote"? I'm positive I said that. That looks like an even worse slip than that word "ignore" earlier. You didn't have a problem quoting my earlier posts in that same message...

[Mgm]

His vote wasn't the third. It was the second.

Um...no, this is factually wrong.

MBL put a quick-third-vote on CES within hours of me putting the second vote on CES. I unvoted CES, FoS'd MBL, and then MBL unvoted CES and counter-FoS'd me. Later, I demaned that MBL put his vote back on CES, and he did so. This is the only reason that MBL shows up as second on the day-end vote count, because I got jittery and removed mine.

The final vote count confused me.

[Mgm]

Patrick's thoughts on Fritz are interesting, too. I would suggest reading Post 963 and the posts which follow immediately. MBL and Mgm: Do either of you see this as a tacit confession of knowing Fritz's role?

Yes I do.

MBL, Glork's analysis is actually a good thing. Before it we were stuck in a situation where no lynch would occur because no majority decision could be made. With the analysis, suspicions and discussion have rekindled. If no lynch occured and I died, the only obstacle in the way of a decision would disappear and Glork would be the one to cast the deciding vote (which would be the easy way out for him - instead of this whole discussion).

I'm confirmed innocent, Glork is 99% confirmed, so you really have only one option unless you want to vote yourself.

[Mgm]

If I was scum who'd actually worked it out (and was planning on denying it later), I find it more likely that I'd have not mentioned that at all and just said "I can't read him".

If that isn't WIFOM, I don't know what is. Ever heard of the term "slip up"?

[Mgm]

Who am I to argue with you, MBL? If you want me to consider you as a scumbag, I'd be happy to oblige.

[Mgm]

I should be able to post some answers by the end of tuesday.

[Mgm]

For future reference to include in my later reread and post: I'm not sure that everything that is being labelled as circular logic actually is. Should look into that.

[Mgm]

Yeah sorry about that. The weather I wasn't too keen on typing this past week.
With Harry Potter out tomorrow, I doubt I will be on much so I should make the time I AM on count. If anyone can help by summarizing the questions I need to answer, they'd save me a lot of time.

(I need the rest of the day to put the game I'm modding into day.)

[Mgm]

When I said "the day" I meant today (Friday).

[Mgm]

Sorry guys, I had to do a lot of off-line stuff, keep my Egypt game running and other things you're not interested in. Tomorrow, I will start reading from the start of the day and respond to stuff that was left lying around when appropriate. That should catch all the important questions I want to address.

[Mgm]

I think no lynching gave us easily as much information as lynching in this case.

Please share that information with us. Because if the no lynch garnered useful info, I want to use it.

[Mgm]

And finally, a little revisionist history:

"If I was scum with CDB, I'd definitely have wanted to be on his lynchwagon, maybe even earlier than I was. MBL's switch over was the one bothering me the most actually."

No, you found me likely protown at the time. Now you've changed your tune.

True, I've changed my mind, but I'm not sure what you're trying to show.

You said MBL's switch was bothering you when it clearly wasn't, because you declared him town at the time. Your reflecting your current ideas on an earlier day when you actually had different thoughts.

Ether hit you on this Thesp contradiction:

Ether wrote:
No, seriously. You explicitly said here that Thesp was out of character, but your later statements have contradicted this. Please explain.

And you reply: "His play on day 1 was pretty usual for him."

So his day one play is pretty usual but he was acting out of character? How exactly is that not a contradiction?

[Mgm]

With the hindsight that both Thesp and Ether were protown, I'd like you to explain how holding off voting either of them is meant to be scummy.

Hindsight is nice, but you couldn't possibly have known for sure he was town back then (unless you are a scumbag). Not lynching an innocent early in the game is not a strong indication of someone's alignment. Not lynching innocents (and later using that action by sucking up to them or proclaiming their innocence with a fake investigation is actually common scum tactic)

Holding off on lynching Thesp might've saved his life temporarily, but it meant we didn't get certain information from his bandwagon (I'm wondering what you think we did learn). Having someone finish him off and Thesp be revealed as town at the time would've revealed something about the people who were pushing the wagon and the reasonings people were using to paint him scummy and to name his possible buddies.

Why do you only target me with your "admitting to being wrong" is a scumtell?

Because you are appearing to use it to make discussion about certain points you don't like die out (I haven't seen this from MBL or Glork). Just saying your wrong means you don't have to give an elaborate explanation to justify your action.

You keep talking about, "MBL would have sacrificed himself yesterday if he was scum." What would you expect him to do exactly? "Hey guys I'm scum lynch me now plzkthxbai". And it's been pointed out that his quick vote for CES may have been at attempt to do exactly that, whilst putting distance between himself and CES.

Of course not, calling attention that way would've called attention to the fact he was trying to derail the CES wagon. I would've expected something more subtle from ScumMBL. Voting CES might've done the trick, if it wasn't for the fact he was trying to save him especially when it is a "quick third vote". You can just about expect someone to put on a fourth and get him lynched (bandwagons don't often derail when they reach -1 status). I would've expected him to draw attention to himself (the last in a way that doesn't show he's trying to get CES off the chopping block -- after all, he was already being voted) or perhaps another player.

I believe when two scum buddies are both being voted in this situation, the non-GF would do the "honorable" thing and save the GF. In this particular case, there was more reason to it. Both Thesp and I were investigated and found innocent, making us partly confirmed. The only scumbag we could still be was GF. By not protecting the GF the scum would create two confirmed innocents while saving him would've kept everyone a suspect. (A decidedly better position for the scum to be in).

Also, what did I do yesterday that you would expect from scum?

Why is that question so important to you? I came to the conclusion you were scum by way of elimination Glork investigated innocent by Fritzler (I'll come back to that in one of the other questions) and MBL for the way he acted yesterday. That leaves you and all the actions of yours throughout the game MBL just posted about only strengthen that feeling.

If you are so set on using the WIFOM of last night's kill against me, then I want you to explain why exactly you think I would have killed CTD on night 4 if I was scum. Not something I'd usually bring up, but you are apparently a big fan of using nightkills to make crucial decisions.

I don't know why you or anyone else would kill CTD. I used the Thesp kill to make a crucial decision because it was a crucial kill decision for the scum and that kill says a lot about the scum who committed it.

[Mgm]

Mgm, if Glork said, "I think the fact that Patrick's name begins with a P is a scumtell, what do you guys think?" would you agree with that?

Of course not. That would be ludicrous and I'd tell him. He might be confirmed in my eyes, but that doesn't give him a free pass to spout crap. Pretty similar to my situation. I am confirmed innocent but Glork and MBL didn't waste any time to tell me they believed me to be hasty.

Do you actually plan on looking at anything at all that points towards me not being scum? Are you even capable of doing that anymore? Why are you selectively avoiding topics?

I'm still happy to look at any evidence against MBL at this point, but since I was so wrong about CDB and CES, I forced myself to rethink my view of MBL himself. Most of my earlier ideas were based on the idea he was scum with you, Glork or Thesp with that idea obiviously out of the question, he's become a lot less of a suspect. Also, I've been wrong just about everyone so far, so since I called him scum for a long time, common sense dictates I'm probably wrong about him too. The evidence against him would have to be pretty convincing - that OR some exonorating evidence regarding you.

[Mgm]

MBL, when Patrick nudged you away from CES onto Zindaras,
why exactly did you change your vote?

[Mgm]

Glork, why have you been on the leading bandwagon each and every day of the game?

[Mgm]

Makes sense.

[Mgm]

I'm afraid I'll spent significant amounts of time in the kitchen today. Not sure if I'll post today. Definitely back tomorrow. I intend to address Fritzler's posts at a bare minimum.

[Mgm]

CES dies as scumfather. Glork isn't on the wagon.

It was clear Glork was intended to lynch CES (even though he could've changed his mind), I just did something he never expected by dropping the hammah vote.

[Mgm]

MBL, your alternate theory would depend on me flat-out TELLING FRITZ THAT I KNEW HE WAS THE COP. Can you find

ANY

rationale for me to do that as scum?

No, the theory that Fritz tried to make it look like you were the cop doesn't require any such thing.

You did tell Fritz you were onto him and he appears to have picked up on it. It's stupid for a townie, it's incomprehensible for a scumbag to do. Neither makes sense, but we both know scum sometimes do something odd.

[Mgm]

D6 Glork has picked his target for the day and clearly done his planning overnight. He explains his push to lynch me as a metagame he's picked up on, which proves to be totally invalid. He votes me five days in. Then another amazing shift:

vote: Patrick

Needless to say, Mgm, I've got my heart set on lynching MBL right now.

Glork has seemed significantly more scummy this game, but there's probably a 60% chance he's been investigated.

unvote.

I don't know who I want to lynch anymore.

So at 6am Glork's heart is set on voting MBL. At the first sign that there's a chance at a three vote consensus on Patrick, and only twelve hours later, Glork's gone from "heart set" to "don't know".

Now he's back on me.

First you are deadset on lynching MBL and then you unvote at the end of the same RL day. What happened for you to change your mind so soon?

[Mgm]

Glork, why have you been on the leading bandwagon each and every day of the game?

That's pretty much how I do thinks. Need I link to other games?

One or two would be nice. Are there any games where it didn't happen?

Also, Mgm, you still have not addressed my earlier posts. I am going to repost this YET AGAIN, because I'd really like a response one way or another:

MGM: My biggest outlying question right now would be for you to address this:

Mgm, could you post your thoughts on Post 1886:

Is there anything else you wanted to hear from the other players? Any specific questions, general thoughts/comments?

I'll let you read what parts you want to read and I wouldn't mind seeing Mgm's thing as well. Actually I would be pretty interested in seeing Mgm's thing.

** Comment on laziness from before: I don't think Thesp has been playing any lazier than normal, nor am I playing lazier than normal. In fact I've put more into this game than my average game. The laziness that bothers me is mostly CES. If I had one/two votes on me, especially from varying people, and with others expressing suspicion of me, I'd be freaking out and trying my hardest to convince people that I shouldn't be lynched and that they should take me out of quicklynch range. Maybe that reflects just different playstyle between me and CES rather than a possible different alignment, but it feels like he's acting in the same that ChannelDelibird was acting when we had nailed him.**

MBL's analysis today is pretty good, and looks fairly protown, but I know he's thorough as scum and I wouldn't put it past him to do it as scum as well as town. I think if he is protown then voting CES like that was not the cleverest idea in the world, but equally if he is scum with Mgm then it would also have been a really sloppy attempt to snatch victory when just waiting a day or two would have been completely safe.

The pairing that worries me the most (after CES/Mgm which is currently my top one) is actually CES/MBL rather than Mgm/MBL. I think I mentioned before that there seems to be alot of genuine friction between MBL and Mgm. MBL pushed Mgm hard day 1 when he wasn't a top candidate, and let's remember if Mgm is scum he's the godfather. Would a goon set out to bus the GF early? I could see a GF busing heavily at a pinch because he can't be touched by cops but a goon busing the GF seems risky when you don't know what the poweroles are. And again later, there just seems to be alot of genuine angst between them. I'm still not too happy with Mgm's opening to today, because it looked pre planned, and not at all how I felt starting the day, and apparently not how Glork (who I think is protown) felt at the start of the day, which may indicate a different mindset. Pre planned busing or pre planned attempt to frame MBL with a slightly off nightkill? Or just unusual playstyle bleh. Glork, if you have some link you can see between Mgm and MBL, other than MBL's vote for CES, then you might as well tell us. For MBL/CES though, there is some distance between them but not as much, could be contrived. I'm not going to worry that much about it right now because in this case lynching CES is absolutely fine anyway. If CES were to be lynched as a godfather, MBL is very likely the other scum.

Taking it one step at a time, CES seems like the best lynch to me. How worried are you about that MBL/Thesp pairing you were talking about before? Because I've taken it mainly that CES has been blowing steam, but again, if there's some link between them then now is the time, we might not get another chance. Thesp has seemed pretty genuinely protown to me for a while now though.

Note, Mgm, that this came after a post in which I said: "Patrick, you and I think we're pro-town, and the two of us are deciding today's lynch, so give me your opinions and I will take them into consideration."

Would you have expected PatrickScum to come back with a post that amounted to "CES is the lynch today" or would you have expected PatrickScum to attempt to convince me that MBL was the play for the way he pounced on CES? Keep in mind that, if Patrick/CES were the scumpair, Patrick could have jumped on MBL just as I did, gotten a mislynch on MBL, and ended the game right there and then.

You say that MBL's behavior towards CES yesterday makes no sense from a scum perspective. I've been thinking that Patrick's behavior yesterday makes no sense from a scum perspective, and I have proposed a scenario where MBLscum would pounce on CESscum just the way he did.

He seems to keep open a lot of options in this post and while he says it's not smart to bus the GF as scum, he goes and does it (which in my opinion would be a great strategy). I don't like how he sets up MBL for the next lynch when he says: "If CES were to be lynched as a godfather, MBL is very likely the other scum." Of course, if CES is the GF, Thesp and me are innocent. Was Glork's investigation a point back then? If it was, that might explain this particular line, although it brings us no closer to which of the two it is.

[Mgm]

and my "it's you or me, and one of us is going down" attitude.

Glork, if I remember correctly you gave someone an ultimatum earlier where you showed this "either lynch me or you"-attitude. Can you remind me what day that was and what player (or just tell me I'm completely hallucinating...)

[Mgm]

You played hard and loose with the facts all game, you considered switching to Patrick when it might have gotten you the mislynch you need to win and now you're moving back to your best chance of survival. That's what I see.

Any vote that avoids three heads pointing the same way ensures a no lynch today which is the scum's best chance of survival. Voting Glork is pretty much a sure fire way to ensure a no lynch and your own survival today. If you can't get a mislynch, a no lynch is the second best option. To me, it seems you are doing exactly what you're accusing Glork of.

[Mgm]

Simply repeating over and over that you're protown does make it so.

Thanks for finally admitting it

[Mgm]

MBL, with your team analysis done, has it raised any more Patrick-suspicions with you? Lack of interest in CDB and CES, voting me for something he did himself most of the game...

[Mgm]

Your questions counter is, as I suspected, misleading. Note that I ask questions when I want to know the answers, and not to fill curiosity quotas.

That still leaves a valid question as to why you showed hardly any interest in the now-dead scum. If it wasn't to fill curiosity quotes, then why didn't you want answers regarding them?

[Mgm]

Thanks. I'll do a spot check to make sure you're not telling fibs, but that's a good enough answer to assume your behavior with regard to top lynch candidates is your play style and not something scummy.

[Mgm]

I've PMed the mod with my view, I suggest the rest of you do the same.

Mgm's currently voting me and his reasons are less than stellar. I'm not just talking about the pure WIFOM of last night's kill, he's brought up a whole bunch of other things that make no sense, and I have to shoot those down. There are valid points against me, as with anyone else, but most of Mgm's stuff against me is garbage.

Hmm, interesting theory, let's see where this leads.

vote: Mgm

To sure and certain doom.

FOS: MBL

[Mgm]

Unvote

[Mgm]

I didn't tell him anything. So, MBL, mind explaining your little stunt?

Yeah, I'm dying to hear your explanation.

[Mgm]

How did you ever get the idea this was a time to test our sense of humor?

[Mgm]

Hence my larger surprise of Ether who did say he wanted Thesp dead.
That said, Fritzler is known for hammering... Him not doing so is slightly out of character at least.

[Mgm]

Vote: No lynch

The only thing I still want to do is investigate Fritzler's posts which could only lead to Glork looking more guilty. Everything MBL said about Patrick has me convinced that lynching MBL is not the right thing to do.

[Mgm]

Because his case against Patrick makes sense.
How can you be so sure of his guilt?
Do you want to bet the outcome of the game on it?

[Mgm]

About 2206: I wasn't talking about that post. He made a case earlier already.

[Mgm]

Need I remind you of your own words, MGM, that if MBLscum couldn't get a guaranteed mislynch, he needed a no-lynch? And that voting Glork would surely achieve that no-lynch?

MBL couldn't get a mislynch, but if Patrick is the scumbag, lynching MBL is the most logical choice for him and the easiest to achieve too.

[Mgm]

Oh, also Patrick's "Well, it's almost deadline, so I'm going to vote MBL and hope he gets lynched,

but I still want Glork to explain why he thinks I'm protown

" comment also gives me good feelings.

This is one of those things I don't like about him. If Patrick is not scum, picking MBL is about the only sane thing he could do and he is still acting like it is a guess.

[Mgm]

The difference is that when I'm not sure I don't throw away the game. We have another chance and if we no lynch now, there'll be at least one less suspect tomorrow.

Indicating that you're not entirely sure yourself. So how is picking MBL "the only sane thing to do"?

You don't seem to doubt it, so with me confirmed and YOU sure about it, MBL is the only sane choice FOR YOU.

[Mgm]

If they lynch me, you'll have no problem lynching MBL. Problem solved.

[Mgm]

Elaborate, then. Tell me why

you

think that Patrick is scum, rather than citing old arguments that MBL has made.

Go read those "old" arguments and act on them.

[Mgm]

Besides, with 4 players and 1 standard mafia it's the best strategy to no lynch.
Text book example.

[Mgm]

Besides, with 4 players and 1 standard mafia it's the best strategy to no lynch.
Text book example.

PHAIL. Do not apply this blindly without looking at the specific situation. The strategy you've given is only if you have no confirmed innocents. There may be other reasons for no lynching (cops and docs alive etc) but none of that applies here.

Doesn't matter. There are no dangerous unknown scum roles, so no lynching can bring us an advantage, no matter how small it may be.

[Mgm]

Fine.

Unvote

[Mgm]

Meh. Unless Mgm is going to stand down and vote MBL, we're going to No-Lynch anyway. Note that MBL has been conspicuously absent in the last 48 hours or so. He knows what's at stake in this game, and he should be well aware of the deadline. I think it's unlike him to just disappear like this.

Like me, he probably doesn't see what's the use in talking. He's on the chopping block and there's yet to be an argument found that convinces you to change that vote.

[Mgm]

*places flowers on grave*

[Mgm]

Patrick, what flowers do you like?

[Mgm]

I have my hammah ready. Just waiting for Patrick to talk (and for MBL's vote).
I'm not going to end the game without giving Patrick a final chance to beg for his life.

[Mgm]

Being stubborn is my best quality.

[Mgm]

Incidentally, why do you think Glork was so certain MBL was scum?

No idea. I can do magic, but I can't do mindreading over a long distance.

If you listened to me a few days ago, MBL would've been dead and rotting already. It's your own fault he's still alive.

[Mgm]

Mod: Can you prod MBL?

[Mgm]

So Patrick is selective in telling which dead guys to believe and on top of that he says, that although I shouldn't read too much into nightkills, I should believe the nightkilled people who believe him to be town.

You'd better explain that.

[Mgm]

MBL, you say that you and Glork always find each other scummy. Can you point out some game names/links for my perusal?

[Mgm]

As for the nightkills issue, Mgm hasn't been consistent at all. He's semi cleared MBL for the Thesp kill (and even MBL has admitted thats total bullshit), yet he refuses to apply the same standards to other nightkills. If I was scum, a (Patrick, Glork, MBL) endgame would be a fairly simple win for me.

You're forgetting the fact that if you let the end game end up in a Patrick Glork MBL game, Glork would wonder why ScuMBL would leave his most vocal opponents alive and consider lynching you. With you believing I'm keen on using nightkills as evidence, you may well have kept me alive and use the nightkill to convince me you'd never make that play (aka WIFOM).

That said, I went through the whole no lynch thing with a purpose. I wanted the info of the final scum kill to use to my advantage without the chance you'd take a gambit, which is why I acted so stubbornly and why I didn't want to do too much explaining about the whole no lynch idea. I wanted to convince you, Patrick, that keeping me alive would be suicide and I wanted to convince MBL that leaving Glork and you alive would be equally suicidal to discourage any gambits. Basically, I faked my stubbornness through the second half of the day to force a move - poker style.

Here goes:

Vote: MBL

[Mgm]

That said, I went through the whole no lynch thing with a purpose. I wanted the info of the final scum kill to use to my advantage without the chance you'd take a gambit, which is why I acted so stubbornly and why I didn't want to do too much explaining about the whole no lynch idea. I wanted to convince you, Patrick, that keeping me alive would be suicide and I wanted to convince MBL that leaving Glork and you alive would be equally suicidal to discourage any gambits. Basically, I faked my stubbornness through the second half of the day to force a move - poker style.

I was actually scared I tipped my hand. I almost caught myself explaining too much which would've been disastrous.

[Mgm]

I wonder what comments they have now.

[Mgm]

MBL: You knew I was capable of making a 180 turn and switch my vote to someone else. Why the heck did you keep me alive? Were you really convinced I'd lynch Patrick when it came down to it?

[Mgm]

See? That no lynch wasn't so bad after all...

[Mgm]

I think Stoofer deserves a Scummie nomination for most enjoyable game. We all enjoyed it and he should be awarded.

[Mgm]

For the record, I saw that coming Major style points to Mgm!

If you saw it coming, why didn't you prevent it from happening? I guess the idea of having Glork and Patrick was even less appealing.

[Mgm]

Mgm, when did this ploy start exactly? Did you think MBL was scum when you started day 6, or only later on? At the start of day 7, you could have just revealed what you were doing (the sad thing is I was fleetingly tempted to vote for you to make you the fall guy, but I decided if there was just a 1% chance of convincing you I had to carry on).

While I initially didn't believe MBL would lynch CES, I eventually came to the conclusion that MBL was quite capable of a gambit and with CES as suspected as he was, not lynching him would have outed them both. (I still had all my suspicions of MBL in the back of my head) With CES dead Thesp was as confirmed as I was at the start of day, so day 6 I wondered why I was left alive. A lot of what Patrick said made me suspicious of him but MBL's suspicion of Glork was highly suspect too, so I had two candidates and I didn't want to end the game without being certain. This eventually led to my no lynch idea mid-day. I would continue to act stubborn to convince the remaining scum to pick a particular nightkill scenario.
I relied on planting the idea that I couldn't be budged.
1. MBL had the choice of killing me (and be lynched by Glork and Patrick) or kill Glork and rely on me to make the wrong decision. Like MBL, I discounted the idea that he'd go for killing Patrick. It would've been too much of a longshot. So basically killing Glork was the only appealing choice.
2. Patrick could pick between killing me and lynching MBL (Glork seemed quite sure), or kill Glork and risk his own death. Again killing MBL was not a serious contender option.

So basically, whatever choice the scum would make give me the clincher info so I could place my vote with 99% certainty. The posibility of gambits is what made me prolong Patrick's suffering. I wanted to read some posts to make absolutely sure both of them fell for my plan. Sorry about that, Patrick.

So in short: I still suspected MBL day 6, but it was the final nightkill that clinched it for me.

[Mgm]

If you killed Patrick instead, you'd have given me a lot of extra work.
I would've gone through Fritzler's posts with a fine tooth comb and you'd have had to pray I find something. I think you'd had a better chance if you killed Glork earlier and now it turns out having me around probably wasn't a good idea either, you can't rely on me to be consistently wrong with my decisions. I thought my sway on CES showed that.

Can you elaborate on the day that CES got lynched? What was your train of thought that led to that decision and what were you planning to do after he was dead? Was there ever a suggestion to kill you instead of CES? Did I ever made the hit list?

[Mgm]

Thanks to you we didn't lynch Glork.
I don't think you screwed up.

[Mgm]

But now I can't use the "At least you're not MGM" anymore = |

You used that?
I thought

some

people believed in my skills as a mafia player, guess I was wrong about that.

[Mgm]

Trust CES? Never again!