Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL, your alternate theory would depend on me flat-out TELLING FRITZ THAT I KNEW HE WAS THE COP. Can you find

ANY

rationale for me to do that as scum?

In retrospect, I can't see any rationale for you doing that as town OR scum. You pretty much outed the guy, you admitted to it in your quote below, and I'm surprised so many people missed it:

The ":knowstuff: [/Fritz]" post was a signal to Fritz that I knew he was the Cop. I'm reasonably sure he picked up on it.

More correctly, your post was a signal to everyone, including the three scumbags, that you knew Fritz was the Cop. Why would you do such a reckless, retarded thing as town? Granted, many of us missed it, but it would only take one scumbag to notice. Or, more likely, you weren't worried about hinting openly because you're not protown.

[MrBuddyLee]

you're going against this

SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE THAT I AM GUARANTEED INNOCENT

because you can't see any other way out of your current predicament.

If I was scum in a predicament I imagine I'd just vote Patrick considering, you know, he's the guy our confirmed innocent is voting for?

Your claim that I "probably wouldn't" try to prove my innocence as town is

complete and utter bullshit

.

Misrepresentation. I claim that you wouldn't try to

bully

me into changing my vote by calling me scummy for my uncertainty.

it was

STUPID

form me to do, but as scum, it would have been

INCOMPREHENSIBLE

. I'm sorry, sir, but you fail miserably.

WIFOM from the guy who bragged to Zindaras on Page 11 about how absurd Glork plays. I suppose I failed miserably by thinking you were scum for trying to lynch me on Page 2 of Space Monkeys?

To be honest, one of the biggest things that bothers me about Patrick is that he's seen you as protown all game. I can't fathom that.

[MrBuddyLee]

Based on yours and Patrick's behavior, my gut tells me you're the one who's likely to be scum, Glork. And at this point it's probably a 75% hunch, based on gut instinct alone. Patrick has done some things I see as inconsistent, but if I squint my eyes I can maybe see them as mistakes made by lazy town. Your play on the other hand reeks of manipulation and posturing. I'll admit a big part of my decision will involve guilt--who would I feel worse about mislynching if I'm wrong? Right now if I lynch Patrick and he turns up town I'll feel a ton of regret because I KNEW it was you not him. If I lynch you as town I'll be pissed but I'll also feel that to some extent you brought it on yourself. And despite all your squirming, I'm still thinking you're going to come up scum whether or not anyone else decides to vote for you.

You played hard and loose with the facts all game, you considered switching to Patrick when it might have gotten you the mislynch you need to win and now you're moving back to your best chance of survival. That's what I see.

You keep making digs at my intelligence, which is amusing. The fact remains that what I called WIFOM is absolutely WIFOM--you are trying to get us to believe you wouldn't do something ridiculous and risky as scum. And then you try to pretend like the only reason you acted ridiculous and risky as scum in Space Monkeys is because of the mechanic? Nonsense--it's your schtick across most of your games now. You tried to do the same thing to me as scum in SpeedyKQ's game.

Glork and Tamuz are on the lynch. That's really all the explanation you need.
Like I said, we're in consensus now. It's a done deal, really.

I also reread your play in Space Monkeys again and amidst the careless votes and throwaway statements you said this:

I can say with the utmost confidence that there is no other player who can get more out of my posts to get a good read on me (than Zindaras).

Zindy found you scummy D1, townish D2 and scummy again D3. If you were town, wouldn't the person who can read you best in da world pick up on that?

Finally, I spit out a 60% number as a rough estimate on whether Fritz investigated you or not--at the time it felt slightly more likely than not. I did that right after reading all the posts from games I found where he was a cop. He has dropped a lot of hints in the past. His posts pointing to a Thesp investigation are unambiguous. His posts pointing to a possible Glork investigation are much less so. In the face of your flamingly scummy play this game, am I going to make my voting decision based on my uncertain read of one post by Fritzler? No way. Sure, the math adds up if I want to play the pure numbers. Approximating:

(.6 innocent investigation)+.4(.25 Patrick's scum) = .7 Glork's town
.3 Patrick's town

But I'd weight my certainty on those factors because I'm much more confident in my read of you over six months than I am in my read of one Fritzler post. In the end, numbers don't do the situation justice. Patrick reads less like Patrickscum in this game than you read like Glorkscum.

[MrBuddyLee]

If the scumteam was {Patrick, CDB, CES}

CDB listed Patrick as one of his two townies and defended him from Thesp once.
CES FOSed Patrick once and had him on his "maybe scum" list with me on D4.

CDB has hardly said anything all game and what he has said is not that insightful.

Defends CDB from an Mgm attack:

I think it's possible that CDB is just being used as the scum patsy here.

Defends CDB from Thesp:

You're case against CDB is reaching and of roughly the same quality as your case against Andrew was.

CDB: Slightlybad. It seems now that he must be deliberately lurking. Incorrectly applied WIFOM.

Patrick was late to the CDB wagon and afterwards cleared Thesp of a tie to CDB and suggested ties between Mgm and Zindy and CDB.

I'm not really feeling the CES wagon.

CES: I admit I'm partially relying on others who know him better. Seems bandwagonish. Not sure how he might play as scum.

CES: Meh. I dunno, though I don't understand the fanatisism for lynching Thesp which has been going on for a while now.

CES is being annoying, spammy, not making sense etc. I'm not sure what to say. It could be a way of avoiding actually contributing any content I suppose.

Defenses of CES:

His attack on Thesp seems ludicrously prolonged and stubborn. I find it hard to see why he would do it as scum in this situation, when it's obviously not getting anywhere. I personally think the case against Zindaras in stronger than the one against CES, but it's interesting how the CES wagon seems to grow far more easily. MBL--mind explaining your vote on CES more? Do you have any metagame on him that makes you think he'd be more likely to act retarded like this if he was scum?

I'm not sold on CES being town, but still don't like the wagon on him, as it felt almost too easy to be true. The CES wagon seems to have been more successful than the Zindy one, despite the fact CES seems the less scummy of the two.

Pre-modkill, defense:

MBL, it's strange that you are voting CES and not Zindaras, since Zindaras seems to be your top suspect percentage wise.

Post-modkill, suspicions:

You have some good observations there MBL. My gut feeling is you're wide of the mark in your Glork assessment but I am getting more suspicious of CES.

Patrick joins the BM wagon instead of the CES wagon.

Busing D5:

Currently if I had to have a stand alone top suspect, it's probably CES.

Attacks Mgm for essentially what Patrick's been doing all game:

My gut says Mgm is trying to ease his way onto busing CES after a whole game of defending him.

I'll follow through on what I said I'd do though and

Vote: CES

. Hopefully the game won't be over when I wake up.

[MrBuddyLee]

1) Is CDB more likely to hug his partners or try to distance from them? He defended Patrick, attacked Glork weakly.
2) Patrick defended both scum until they were under significant suspicion, then followed others late onto both scumwagons.
3) Patrick played a significant role in keeping Zindaras and Nightfall above CES in the public eye.
4) Patrick was on Mgm most of D2, Zindaras most of D3-4. Flipped to Nightfall at deadlines before switching back to Zindaras.
5) All three scum were never on the same target.

[MrBuddyLee]

Interesting that you're okay with MGM using WIFOM to say "I don't believe MBL would have killed me."

Mgm thinks that the Thesp nightkill makes it unlikely you're scum, and gives a load of WIFOM reasoning. Do you actually think that the Thesp nightkill should make you less of a suspect today? I think you might have touched on it today.

Actually guys, I'm not OK with Mgm's logic there and I never said I was. Here's the extent of my comments on the nightkill of Thesp, from a summary of events post at the start of the day:

Thesp NKed instead of Mgm N5--Mgm found Patrick more suspect than Glork, Thesp found Patrick thoroughly pro-town.

I gave it no further analysis because this late in the game, it'd be too easy for scum to win if we always base our votes on what NK would be good for what scum. They could just do the opposite every time and coast to victory. Mgm, not lynching me is the correct choice, but that particular reason is a dangerous one to rely on--it WILL bite you sooner or later.

[MrBuddyLee]

Here's another reason why I'm not so hot on Patrick as town. I've successfully spotted scum in the past by looking for lack of curiosity in posts. To be honest, Glork, you've shown very little curiosity today, but Patrick's shown even less. You're both more interested in steering votes. Here's the question count:

glork:
asked mgm 9
asked patrick 3
asked mbl 18

patrick:
asked glork 1
asked mgm 19
asked mbl 3

Questions to Mgm are all attempts to sway his vote, not expressing curiosity about alignments in the least.

The quality of the questions is very relevant. Here are Patrick's questions:

To Glork:

Any chance you could articulate how CES's play looked protown?

To MBL:

Are you saying you didn't know that Fritz can be an obvious cop before Glork mentioned it?

Now you suddenly say there is a 60% chance Glork was investigated. What caused this change of heart?

Did you get anything out of this (checking old posts for very-townish Patrick posts)?

That's it. The extent of Patrick's curiosity.

Here are Glork's:

To Patrick:

Why did you drop the CDB-hate altogether and decide to audible to Glork?

Patrick, do you have any explanation to offer as to why you posted so incredibly little analysis on either CDB or CES during the early game?

Patrick: Is there any particular reason you have not placed your vote yet?

There are too many questions to me for me to enumerate, but I can break them down into two categories:

Good questions that seem to express curiosity about my alignment: 4

MBL: Why, exactly, did you choose not to hammer Thesp at the end of Day Two?

MBL: If you felt that CDB was actively lurking so hard, why didn't you choose to take any action, especially after he failed to change his ways after your initial comments towards him?

Suddenly MBL is all anti-CDB. What happened between last post and this one?

What specifically (posts, interations, attitudes) caused you to believe that Thesp was being opportunistic? Was it, by any chance, his proclaimed certainty

regarding his proclaimed scumbags?

Questions designed to persuade me Glork isn't scum: 14

Would you expect GlorkScum to take literally weeks to make the kind of turn that you have suggested?

do you think I have a history of "appearing thorough and even-headed"?

Can you find ANY rationale for me to do that as scum?

Do you, right now, believe that I am seeking the "easy route" to victory?

Patrick, if you are town, you thought Mgm+CES was the scumpair yesterday. When the sun came up today, you were forced to recognize your judgments had been wrong and completely reconsider your worldview. Yet you have not done the legwork, you've been lazy and focused on defending yourself rather than learning from your mistake (and reasoning out that Glork's the scumbag).

Glork, if you're town, you were also projecting CES+Mgm as your primary scumpair yesterday. You were wrong, and yet you haven't worked very hard to overcome your incorrect biases and learn the truth--that Patrick is scum.

Frankly, I think I've played a better game than either of you, making better reads on the whole, but for some reason one townie still finds me more suspect than the scumbag. It's frustrating, but there's not much I can do other than answer questions and try to trap the last scumbag into slipping up (or spot a previous slip-up, but I think pretty much everything's on the table at this point).

One of you is lazy town. The other is surprisingly lazy scum.

Glork, am I correct that you've made up your mind? Patrick, can you please give us a summary of where you currently stand?

[MrBuddyLee]

With all due respect, Patrick, your first real "suspicions" each day have been IH, Mgm, Zindaras Nightfall, and now me. 0-for-5. You were late to express suspicion of CDB and CES. Adele's investigation of Mgm appears to be the only reason you haven't lynched him already today. If you're not scum, you might consider doing town a favor and brushing up your scumhunting, because it hasn't helped us much this game.

You expect me to watch one of you/Glork botching this game and not ask you to try to do better? It's infuriating to sit here and get poked at by you two while you each ignore the other. Especially considering you two each ran a half-dozen innocents up to the gallows. Asking me a whopping three questions today and Glork one as your only two suspects remaining is the kind of thing you'll regret when Glork wins the Scummie for best mafia performance. If you're town.

[MrBuddyLee]

Yeah, definitely. I'm actually not close to voting--Glork just makes my blood boil and sometimes I need to step away from the keyboard and remember he can also be a complete doodyhead as town.

Neither of these guys looks like town to me right now, and I'm not in the habit of settling for an educated guess. My record in newbie games as town is something like 8-1, and it's primarily because I drag days out forever and force people to post until scum makes a mistake. I keep getting frustrated and wanting to slap a vote down on Glork, like I did D4 when he pulled his "MBL U MUST UNVOTE CES AND VOTE MEshift+1 YOU OR I SHALL DIE PISTOLS AT HIGH NOON" malarkey. But I'm not gonna vote til I can tell the difference between these two. And right now Glork looks like manipulative scum and Patrick looks like coasting, avoidant scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick, the one thing you have going for you in my book is tone. I've seen you as town and you sounded different as town than you did in your scum games. This game, you come across more like you have as town. That's big in my book.

As far as you labeling me manipulative, I think I'm the only person not trying to tell Mgm what to do. I'm trying to get you and Glork to do ANYTHING that can help me tell the two of you apart, but so far you're like Mutt and Jeff today, both spending way more time making cases for your township than anything, with the dregs of your time spent poking at me and ignoring each other.

I've only been lynched as town once before, and it was by Glork, in a game (LO2) where I was unable to contribute for the first two weeks. You found me scum all day in that game and changed your mind just before I got lynched. I don't intend to ever get lynched as town again but at this point that's up to one of you/Glork... again.

[MrBuddyLee]

I know. The question I'm asking is why you waited until Mgm voted me to actually check my games as scum.

I spent like a half an hour one day going through "All Posts by Patrick" from your profile, and didn't find you as scum and got distracted. I probably saw a shiny ball of foil on the ground or something.

[MrBuddyLee]

Mgm's currently voting me and his reasons are less than stellar. I'm not just talking about the pure WIFOM of last night's kill, he's brought up a whole bunch of other things that make no sense, and I have to shoot those down. There are valid points against me, as with anyone else, but most of Mgm's stuff against me is garbage.

Hmm, interesting theory, let's see where this leads.

vote: Mgm

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote

[MrBuddyLee]

If I had to vote right now it'd be on Glork. I told Stoofer my vote is still in flux and I did not request a deadline. I guess based on what you guys told him, your votes aren't likely to change, otherwise I doubt Stoof would have given us a deadline. Is that correct?

Mgm, can you go into detail on why you're so convinced by the Fritzler thing? I'm not seeing it.

[MrBuddyLee]

Nice to see you haven't lost your senses of humor.

[MrBuddyLee]

Seriously, I thought we were gonna be here a lonnnnnggggg time and I figured it was a good time to lighten the mood for a moment. We're all friends, I assume, and we've been at each others' throats for seven months now.

Plus, I needed a smile, and it cracked me up at the time.

[MrBuddyLee]

It was a gentle jab at Patrick to remind him that if he's town, Mgm's not the one to lynch, you are.

[MrBuddyLee]

Mgm, Patrick, I'd like to hear your analyses on the Fritzler-Glork thing. I agree that it's critical to understand whether Fritz hinted at his results or failed to do so, and right now my view of it is that it's a somewhat ambiguous read. I'd like to know if I'm missing something, and I'd like to know how much it's factoring into Patrick's decision.

By the way, I didn't think about this before, but on the surface, Patrick being willing to write off one of the remaining suspects due to an ambiguous investigation is a slight town tell, due to the inherent lack of self-preservation in that act. (If he's convincing, it forces one player to vote him, and forces another to become 50% more likely to lynch Patrick.)

[MrBuddyLee]

I guess I don't give a lot of credence to ALL the things Fritz says--he's another one of those BabyJesus-style players who says things like "no reason not to lynch xxx now" or "yyy is clearly town" and not mean anything by it, so I think I expected his lust for blood to take over there. Someone once said--Fritz plays to kill.

[MrBuddyLee]

Plus, the lack of hammer made me suspect a Thesp-Fritz scumpair, which would make Fritz's protection of Thesp WIFOMmy-blatant.

[MrBuddyLee]

I've thought about this decision from every angle imaginable and wasted far too much of my life poring over this thread. It's been a fun game, and we've been prolific, but I guess none of us made it easy on the others to distinguish town from scum because we're nowhere near consensus. Here's how I see things as I head off for a 3-day in San Diego:

1 being townish 10 being super scummy

Based on suspicions of me:
Glork's suspicions of me started with a Nightfall-MBL association and then expanded to him finding me scummy for pressing Zindaras for info. There was literally nothing there and yet he pitched a fit and said he was 95% sure I was scum. Says I was "taking advantage of Zindaras" Total bull--like Patrick, I wanted info from Zindy, and Glork was the one calling for the modkill. When Zindy died, Glork cemented the opportunity to paint me as most likely scum. Switched to Nightfall with no explanation, right as Nightfall was being replaced.

Claimed I was his top suspect at the start of D5 but switched to preferring CES without rereading and after a few people showed interest in lynching CES and only MGM and CES wanted to lynch me. Overreacted drastically to my quiet vote on CES, as I expected he would as scum. D6 tried to ring me up with a bogus metagame. Terrible.

Patrick's suspicions of me have been "me too"ish. He claims to have found my analysis protown all game, but when Glork forwarded the Nightfall-MBL hypothesis, Patrick gave it some play. Then, no suspicions until June 30th, when Patrick decided by process of elimination that I was his third most likely scum candidate. Today, Patrick exploded with a analysis he missed D1-4, claiming I was scumbuddyish with CDB, kind of sheeped on Glork's bogus metagame of me, and really sheeped on Glork's bogus hypothesis about my third vote.

Glork: 8
Patrick: 7

Based on suspicions of others:

I've hit on this a lot, but recapping, Glork has been mercurial. Patrick has been late to the wagon, usually off doing his own thing (IH, Mgm, Zindaras).

Glork: 7
Patrick: 6

Based on voting record (compared to the average player this game--we have not been the most astute of towns) Glork led, Patrick followed to a great extent, but mostly followed on scum, only half the time on town:

Glork: 5
Patrick: 6

Based on tone, Patrick seems more reasonable and interested in equity, Glork seems more manipulative and goal-oriented:

Glork: 8
Patrick: 4

Based on curiosity, Patrick has lacked it for much of the game, Glork has been curious but many times more random than curious:

Glork: 3
Patrick: 6

Based on possible investigation results:

Glork: 4
Patrick: 6

Based on metagame, Patrick doesn't look like the scum he was at the start of B&J, but he's gotten suaver, Glork looks like random average manic could easily be scum Glork, the results of his weird actions have been negative fairly often:

Glork: 6
Patrick: 4

Based on possible scum trio interactions, CDB awkwardly distanced from Glork and ignored Patrick, CES hugged Glork tight and ignored Patrick but still claimed to find him scummish:

Glork: 7
Patrick: 5

Based on what my gut tells me:

Glork: 6
Patrick: 4

average:
Glork: 6
Patrick: 5.7

This is about how I feel right now. My gut tells me Glork's the scum, my rational mind tells me there are factors that make the decision very close to 50-50.

The factors I've had the most success in the past with are curiosity, legitimacy of suspicion, interactions and gut, about in that order. Patrick takes a huge hit on curiosity, but Glork is scummier in the other three categories.

It's late, and I think I have an internet connection in California, so I'll think about this for a day or two before I throw down my vote on Glork.

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick, I needed more time to evaluate BM, but it looked like he made a major scumslip by placing Glork and Thesp as his top two suspects and a possible scumpair. Town reading the thread would have surely noted who was involved in "catching scum", and I really don't think the logical or gut conclusion could conceivably be that the two that started the wagon are both scummiest.

BM did express a few opinions that made sense to me, like that I was the most townish player in the game. He found CES, Glork, Thesp, Ether scummy and Mgm, MBL, Patrick town, interestingly. But he also made the slip of stating Mgm was a proven innocent by investigation while still finding Thesp scummy. Another MAJOR tell of someone not reading the thread with curiosity but rather tailoring their opinions to desired results.

If Battle Mage had turned up scum, I would have been very suspicious of MBL who I thought looked like he was manufacturing reasons to slide onto the Battle Mage wagon. With Battle Mage turning up town, I'm less sure.

which would point to MBLscum if BM were *town* definitely

I noticed this while reviewing the BM debacle.

Patrick, do you really have a problem with the suspicions I expressed of BM in early June? What do you think of Glork's press on Nightfall and his 95% certainty of scumminess? What do you think of his certainty on Zindy D4 and his accusations towards anyone who wanted more info out of Zindy?

Glork, after pushing an MBL-Nightfall scumpair all D4, why did you think BM town suddenly meant MBL scum was MORE likely? Patrick clearly thought the opposite. You guys can't have it both ways, so who was using the stinkin logic?

One last thing... Glork's CDB vote doesn't fit the rest of the picture well, and that's something that bothers me, but I do think that if Glork is scum, when he spotted Fritzcop he quickly calculated the safest place to be at that time, and that was on the same wagon as Fritz's innocent, running a tight train. What other explanation is there for Glork's sudden confidence in CDB's guilt?

when CDB turns up scum

slip of the wrist?

quite intentional, actually

[MrBuddyLee]

So you didn't find it strange that he went after me and not you for voting Zindaras?

[MrBuddyLee]

I'm back, sorry for the absence but it was my parents' 40th anniversary weekend. I skimmed and I see basically what I missed, so obviously

vote: Patrick

. Mgm, seven months of play all comes down to your decision now, and I hope the big picture is clear to you at this point. After I catch up on work I'll do a more thorough reread and see if there's anything significant remaining to address.

For starters though, well played, Patrick. You had me fooled well enough, and if it weren't for Adele investigating Mgm I think you guys probably would have won this game by now. To Glork, who's surely reading this as well, I would have lynched you over Patrick because your play just did not make sense to me as town play, and I suppose you and I will have to modify our playstyles or our reads in order to stop perpetually seeing each other as scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

First off, after reading the posts I missed, I want to take issue with Glork's repeated criticism of my "circular logic"--his term for what I call something very different. I strongly believe that to assess the likelihood that a player is scum, you must for a moment suspend disbelief and ASSUME they are scum, and then take a walk through their actions and their dead scumpartners' actions to see whether or not the assumption makes sense in totality. What you are in fact doing is hoping to DISPROVE that they are scum, a conclusion that would have great value if more than one suspect remains. There were a few lines in my analysis that pointed to issues with Glorkscum:

* The only three people CDB commented on D1 were Glork, CES and Andrew, which would be his two scumpartners and the lynchee, terribly sloppy distancing.

* All three of {Glork, CES, CDB} were on both of the first two lynches.

* CES dies as scumfather. Glork isn't on the wagon.

Reading my analysis of Patrick as scum, one problem point came up:

* Patrick defended CES and CDB somewhat boldly.

The point is this--using this technique as one tool in a wider repertoire of scumhunting techniques is perfectly acceptable, and is not indicative of me having my head up my ass, as Glork put it so kindly. Nor is it circular logic. I would hope that any thorough town player would walk this game in my shoes and see whether or not my actions could conceivably make sense as a member of scumteam {CES, CDB, MBL}. I'm confident they'd find more incongruities than they'd find by doing an analysis of {Patrick, CES, CDB}.

I also took rational offense to Patrick's (and Glork's) argument that I somehow manipulated a no-lynch. For us to have avoided no-lynch, there were three realistic options:

* Mgm switch to MBL
* MBL and Glork switch to Patrick
* Mgm and Patrick switch to Glork.

To look at these three possibilities side by side and somehow conclude that it was I who was responsible for the no-lynch, let alone manipulated it, is absurd.

I'll break this train of thought up into several posts for readability.

[MrBuddyLee]

If you listened to me a few days ago, MBL would've been dead and rotting already. It's your own fault he's still alive.

This is insane, and almost reads like you're trying to shift the blame already for when I turn up town.

I think what Mgm was saying here, Patrick, is that you're imploring him to listen to other players to divine the truth, when in fact you haven't availed yourself of the same opportunity.

You're also choosing dead people selectively. Yes, Glork found me scummy but he ALWAYS finds me scummy. In our last three games together he's lynched me as town D1, come within 20 minutes of lynching me as town on D1, and called for my vig D1. If you really wanted Mgm to listen to the dead, you'd have included final opinions from a few of our other underground town:

Id say MBL was the most protown looking player here.

I'm watching Ether, Glork, and Patrick. As ever, love the analysis, MBL.

I'm uncertain about MBL (though I find his effort put in today to be very pro-town)

Glork and MBL are town.

I'm not suggesting that he should listen to these people, I'm suggesting that picking any one particular dead guy to follow is selectively scummy.

Also, we've already demonstrated that Glork's been on more bad lynches than anyone in this game, so I'm not sure why a townie would ask anyone to put their entire faith in Glork's word this game in the same breath as they insult their scumhunting.

[MrBuddyLee]

Consistency in suspicion and argument are hallmarks of town. Patrick's final case against me contains a glaring inconsistency--it goes against everything he's been trying to tell us for weeks now about how he believes nightkills should be treated:

The three previous nightkills have all been guys who worked out I was town (CTD, Thesp, Glork) and note that two of them strongly thought MBL was scum. It is so obvious I'm being setup here it practically burns my eyes.

I'm always unsure how much to read into a nightkill. I'd rather go by what's in the thread. What about you?

Pre planned attempt to frame MBL with a slightly off nightkill?

Your theory is complete and utter WIFOM. I haven't made anything out of the nightkill; I don't think it points strongly in one direction, and I'm unwilling to put so much weight on a nightkill as you seem to be.

The point is to illustrate that letting a WIFOMy nightkill action rule your suspicions is a bad, bad idea.

Looking at nightkills is usually a risky way of finding scum. I guarantee you if you look at a bunch of games here, you will not see nightkill WIFOM being heavily used in looking for scum. Thesp is the better player, thus more likely to find the truth, especially with his form in this game. That seems to me the most obvious explanation for why he died.

If you are as experienced as you claim, Mgm, then you must surely know that basing big decisions off nightkills is rarely used or encouraged because of how risky it is.

I did not put alot of weight in the Thesp nightkill.

Nail, meet coffin.

[MrBuddyLee]

For the record, I saw that coming Major style points to Mgm!

Thanks for the game, Stoof, and to everyone who gave it such rich texture. I've seen the game as pretty much unwinnable since suspicions were expressed start of D5, but quitting was never an option.

The first three nightkills were dictated to us by gamestate. For the record, I thought Glork was the cop and that's why I did what I did D3. CES correctly nailed Fritz. I believe CES chose to nail CTD/Ether the next night for his correctness of suspicions, and I chose to kill Thesp N5 primarily because he was a confirmed innocent. Glork died last night for his insolence.

This game would have been balanced without two confirmable, sane cops. Town played not so well D1-D2, scum played above average, and yet the game was still leaning town D3. Four mis-daykills, a misvig and two no-lynches and town still won, but if it was unbalanced a little that just gave scum more incentive to perform.

I didn't think Fritz would have investigated Glork!

I'll always remember this game fondly, thanks guys. Winning would have been nice icing, but meh, it was fun just watching you guys run in circles a bit.

[MrBuddyLee]

MBL: You knew I was capable of making a 180 turn and switch my vote to someone else. Why the heck did you keep me alive? Were you really convinced I'd lynch Patrick when it came down to it?

No, I thought you'd lynch me. But I was positive Glork and Patrick would lynch me, those friggin mules. The only other alternative was to kill Patrick, which would have been a pure WIFOM play that didn't appeal to me.

CES, can you think of a way we could have upped our chances of winning this?

[MrBuddyLee]

One manner in which I believe MBLscum tries to keep suspicions off of him is by simply staying away from the chic mislynch of the day.

MBL's tendency as scum is to shy away from a big mislynch, and to join a wagon on scum as soon as possible once the scales have been tipped.

Now I'm curious to see how MBL's play evolves from here.

I love the essence of this "metagame"--it distills to: "If MBL is accurately hunting scum, he's scum. If he's mislynching like a banshee, he's town."

[MrBuddyLee]

So if I'd have killed Patrick instead...

[MrBuddyLee]

Can you elaborate on the day that CES got lynched? What was your train of thought that led to that decision and what were you planning to do after he was dead? Was there ever a suggestion to kill you instead of CES? Did I ever made the hit list?

We agreed to bus each other to start the day because it was nearly certain that one of us was going down, and unless we distanced, we'd fall like dominos. I was pretty sure it'd be CES but I actually made a few subtle efforts here and there to get myself lynched instead in ways that would make CES look better. I posted something along the lines of "all three scum were doing such and such" implying that I knew who the scum were, and at one point posted a slip that implied I knew CES was town. No one picked up on them, sadly.

We couldn't kill you, Mgm, because people thought you were the godfather. Once CES died, I had to get either Glork or Patrick lynched to win. Thesp saw them both as extremely protown and showed no sign of wavering. Glork saw Patrick as very protown and Patrick saw Glork as very protown. Fools. They gave me no choice but to leave you alive--you were the only person who didn't have their mind made up about my needed lynches.

[MrBuddyLee]

Thanks for trying to protect me, Fritz, I got your back.

[MrBuddyLee]

MrBuddyLee, why didn't you vote me to avoid the no-lynch D2?

Because I wouldn't have hammered you if I was town. I was on vacation at the time, and I sat staring at the February Arizona sun for a few hours and it told me you weren't quite scummy enough to hammer. Plus, I really thought one of {Ether, Patrick} would hammer you for the everpopular "sake of information".

[MrBuddyLee]

I thought

some

people believed in my skills as a mafia player, guess I was wrong about that.

You were on to me before anyone. You were on to Glork, Patrick and Thesp when they were playing scummily D1/D2 and to some extent your pressure turned their behavior around. I think you were right about Andrew and Adele. And you correctly kept your mind open during endgame--to be honest, I think Patrick and Glork were a little too certain about each other. Just be careful about ever trusting CES again.