Mafia 66: Freelancer - Game over!

[YagamiLight]

Hi, I'm going to read and try and make a post tonight, but first I'm going to

unvote

in case I have any outstanding votes.

[YagamiLight]

Well, it seems to me that there will not be an scum tells today because the sk have no reason to defend anyone, but the town doesn't have much reason either. Also the SK will probably want to just lynch anyone until there is a low amount of townie's left, then start trying to lynch the other sk's. Basically I think we need to lower the number of people so the SK's start showing signs, and no-lynches are bad because I would rather have a chance of lynching an sk, so we lynch the lurkers. Then we have an active community, as we try to eliminate the sk. (I know most of this has been said already.)

[YagamiLight]

I agree with ryan also, I don't think we'll have anything to talk about untill at least day 2.

[YagamiLight]

No-Lynch is bad because if we lynch we still have a chance to Lynch an SK. Also it seems like in this the SK's are going to want to keep each other until there are fewer townie so they can take out townies quicker, and have the other SK's to show signs, hopefully show stronger signs than their own, and be lynched instead of them. Basically I don't think we will get many SK scum tells until there are fewer townies, I know that sounds bad, but I honestly don't think the SK's will show anything till then.

[YagamiLight]

Why would a no lynch be bad in this situation? I would rather no lynch than lynch randomly. If we no lynch, we lose no one. If we lynch randomly, we most likely lose a townie. Having no one die is better than having a townie die. That's why we need to make an informed lynch instead of randomly wagoning, because that's not going to help us.

Yes, but if we Lynch a Townie, and All 3 Sk's make sucsessful kills, We only have 5 Townies left..

EBWOP: I forgot we have 15 pro town, so We would have 11 left.

Are you trying to Argue for or Against MoS? I think the SK's will want to take out townies untill our numbers are less then start trying to lynch SK's.

[YagamiLight]

Well, if they are the only SK too soon, then it gives town more turns to try and find them, because of less kills at night, where if they wait they can take more of the town out then lynch try to lynch the SK's near the end.

[YagamiLight]

You know, I've never liked when people vote for themselves. It always just seems like they are giving up.

[YagamiLight]

Right now I believe we wont find any logical reasons to lynch because the SK's don't know who each other are yet, and in a game like this everyone is going to look the same until the scum go after each other. Also, after rethinking the game, it doesn't matter how many people die, the SK's will probably go after each other shortly after discovering each other. In other words I'm at a loss about what to do now.

[YagamiLight]

Every setup can make an informed D1 lynch. You are clearly too used to relying on power roles in this game. In Himalayan mafia, there were 4 mafia and a bunch of townies, and the town lynched scum the first two days of the game. This wasn't by accident, we made informed lynches and caught scum without the help of power roles. We can do the same thing in this setup, and have a better chance at catching scum than a random lynch.

We can't make an informed lynch today because everyone is out for themselves, and most of the common scum tells do not apply. This has nothing to do with Himalayan mafia as the mafia where informed, and working together, which allows for the scum tells.

[YagamiLight]

It allows for

different

scumtells. Just because there is no one working together does not mean that there are no scumtells. People do plenty of scummy things without having relation to another person. Any protown person that is only looking out for themself might as well give up now, because that's not going to help us. If Ksc0pe happens to be town by some stretch of the imagination, he's got the right idea in looking out more for the town than himself. I don't necessarily agree with his plan of action, but at least he has the right sentiment.

I didn't mean protown is only looking out for themselves, I mean that they will defend themselves from a lynch just as much as an SK.
The different scumtells, will not show up today, the SKs will look just like town because they want to lynch SKs too and there is no evidence of who one is. Not until one of the SK's find another will we begin to get scumtells from them.

[YagamiLight]

vote BM

. As good as any other. Call me crazy, but the fact that you accused someone of setting a trap for lazy townies makes no sense. NO ONE wants to trap townies in this game, not even the scum.

This is a dry as hell thread. Read one page read them all.

Also

FOS DYH, ryan

just for looking scummy. But ryan always looks scummy so I don't know what to make of it.

Also,

tornado, and Butte

are town.

You know, Lwell's last post wanted reasons for voting him. Here he gives his reason for voting, but no reason for why he thinks DYH and ryan are scummy or why tornado and Butte are town.

[YagamiLight]

That was made when there was a deadline, so if no-one was going to agree with him about lynching you, he would want to put the vote somewhere useful.

So he could be looked upon as somebody who's willing to go with the flow? Instead of putting a vote on somebody he thinks is a SK he's going to put it on the more popular wagon? I find that very interesting.

No, there was a deadline upcoming, and he obviously wanted a lynch.

Ryan, in regard to these, MoS had said before that he believed no-lynch was a bad idea, therefore, near deadline he voted for someone to try and insure a lynch.

[YagamiLight]

[quote="JordanA24"][quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"][quote="JordanA24"][quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"]All scumtells do not apply in this game.[/quote]

That on it's own deserves a lynching, what utter crap.[/quote]OK, name me the sk-tells, preferably the ones for d1, now. If you fail to do so, you're crying utter crap and will receive my vote.[/quote]

I've already said, SK tells are when players are trying to fly under the radar, lurking, but not enough to be noticed, and posting occasionaly, not contributing anything new, just agreeing with the general opinion at the time. Basically, what you've been doing all game.[/quote] Thats not necessarily true, an SK will look townie, because both want to lynch the SK's. They can always NK the townies. The biggest tells will be when one of them knows who an SK is, and when they are the only SK left.

[YagamiLight]

I'll go with DYH, I still don't think there will really be any scumtells. Let the bandwagon continue.

vote DYH

[YagamiLight]

I'm in California with the Valley Girls.

[YagamiLight]

"How helpless we are, like netted birds, when we are caught by desire." Belva Plain

[YagamiLight]

Unvote
Vote: Ryan

I'll join.

[YagamiLight]

No, I made it 9 he made it 8 I think. I think he miss counted.

[YagamiLight]

EBWODP
Yeah, there are now 9, one more and we lynch.

[YagamiLight]

I'm shocked K-Scope didn't turn up scum.

With 2 deaths, it looks like one of the SK's targetted another one, that makes me doubly certain that at least one of Butte, Yagami, Theo and Sir Tornado is an SK. I'll reread ASAP.

I really don't like the beginning of this post... And I'd like to hear the reasoning behind the second part.

In hindsight, the beginning does sound very scummy, but I was only stating an opinion.

The reasoning is that those four made themselves look especially scummy with Ryan's quicklynch (or at least to me), making them, if SK's wanted to know the identity of another SK, prime targets.

I've stated my reasonings for doing that, though it may have been before, and that I had believed that we would know nothing until one of the SK knew who another is. From your post, my first thought was that you may be the SK who had no kill and one of them is the other, but as of know I'm unsure.

[YagamiLight]

I don't see Lowell's post as scummy for the kill part everyone is looking at, but the way he says "I'll" (referring to himself) kill them, not we should kill/lynch them, or anything about the town.
In other news, theo, are you voting him for a different reason? You just said that you would probably have done the same thing if you didn't think about, and that is doesn't seem as damning to you.

[YagamiLight]

Oops, never mind, completely confused with names, thought you had voted Lowell not Estes right there.

[YagamiLight]

I wasn't argueing that it wasn't scummy, I just didn't see the reasoning behind the kill part, but now I do see your point as I would have said lynch, and thinking about it, it was a pretty big mistake.

[YagamiLight]

Yep. You're all dumb. So it goes.

The point I was making is that one of the SKs knows another SK... probably.

So I'm going to suss out who that is, and kill the accused. Then kill the accuser, for he must also be scum. 2/3 dead, town happy.

Note to all: SKs CAN'T KILL EACH OTHER AT NIGHT. So, even by the odd "he confessed" logic, I would have confessed to something that isn't possible.

Further note to all: Call this a metagaming issue, but I dont' really believe in "slips". This isn't live. Folks have as long as they need to reread posts and correct them for incriminating words. The way to find scum is behavior at different points in the game, not by "slip-ups"

The thing is you referred to just yourself killing someone, and did it again here. The thing is if you are an SK, you could try killing the accuser and accused to find out if either of them are one of the other 2 SK's, or even if both are. And on the plus side, you could remove a townie or two if one or both aren't SK's. You're right in the end, SK's can't kill each other, but they can still target each other.

[YagamiLight]

Jordan, trust me if I was a serial killer I'd be jumping all over Lowell like the rest of you were. Which is why Estes is a good bet today, plus I'm not the only one laying low today so go pick on a more likely candidate.

Erm...WIFOM, trying to shift attention and getting overdefensive in the same post, vote stays.

Nah it's not WIFOM, you don't have to think long and hard about it. The Serials aint going to need a lot of excuse to jump onto a wagon, yes I'd agree that I leapt on to the Ryan wagon but at that stage I felt there was a decent chance he'd turn up scum. Overdefensive would you rather I ignored it? Keep your vote on me as long as you want, it will prove a useless one however.

It is WIFOM, because a SK doesn't want attention, and can try exactly what your doing and say "I didn't just jump on his wagon, so I'm not scum." Like you said, they don't need a reason to bandwagon, but blatant bandwagoning would make them noticed.
@ButteBlues, I'm suspicious of Lowell, but I'm a bit suspicious of Theo now too.

[YagamiLight]

@YB: What settled it for you? Between that post and your last, all that came up was a vote count.

FoS YB

[YagamiLight]

That's OK is like saying Your Welcome... I like your welcome better.

[YagamiLight]

Yes, but two of three picking 1 person is less likely than 1 of 3 picking 1 of the 2 others.
For the fist thing, 3 SK's picking 1/17 people. Giving each person a 3/17 chance of being chosen, which makes it a 3/34 (about 8.82%) for one person being chosen twice, and not including the SK's (as if this was the case then no SK tried to kill another), it would be 1/14 (about 7.14%)
In the other consideration, each SK has a 2/17 chance of being picked by another. With 3 SK's with these chances there's a 6/17 chance one of them was picked.
This is all given I remembered Statistics, and they kill randomly (as I would).

[YagamiLight]

EBWODP
Ignore that, I've noticed too many mistakes all ready, so obviously I don't remember statistics.

[YagamiLight]

The way I see it, a dayvig without killing powers is a vanilla townie, I thought it was his own unique way of claiming. In the end though, I'm still suspicious of him, so,

vote Lowell

.

[YagamiLight]

Did you just put someone at Lynch-1 two real days after day started?

vote: YagamiLight

ButteBlues - are you serious? "Dayvig that can't kill."

No, day started July 10, today is July 18. Plus, I believe he is SK, so I'm voting for him.

[YagamiLight]

I know it was pretty bad math, normally I"m pretty good, but it's been years since I've had Statistics. Also, I didn't vote you for the claim (I tried to explain to everyone about how it seems to be a unique townie claim) and I"m the only one to vote you after you claimed, and anyhow I'm going to

unvote

you because JDodge is looking pretty suspicious now. JDodge, the lack of reasoning wasn't suspicious to me because this SK only game seemed like it would be hard to find good reasoning, especially Day 1 and parts of Day 2. What's so suspicious is that you believe that Jordan and Lowell are suspicious for FoS'ing you for the lack of reasoning.

[YagamiLight]

Each SK picked 1/16, because ryan was dead, bringing it to 17, and they wont pick themselves. Also, it's about 6 times, because each of the 3 SK's has the 1/16 chance for both the other 2. Otherwise I think your right, again I could be wrong on this again.

[YagamiLight]

EBWODP
Mine was meant towards Qman

[YagamiLight]

EBWOTP
Lowell, there were 17 before they killed, not 16.

[YagamiLight]

We'll, I don't see reasons why the SK's would target specific people. If someone is finding a lot of scum tells on you (suppose an SK), and they die that night,it would be WIFOM to say you were scum, but it wouldn't matter as they already got attention on you. Based on this and that there are no power roles, it seems like random kills is all you really need, and what I would use if I were an SK.

[YagamiLight]

THeo, I agree with you about the end of the wagon, and would like to add to it. I would think they are people who thought like I did about it not being likely we would get scumtells day one.
I would also agree with you about the flaking, but it is still possible that an SK has flaked, so don't close your mind to those people who have replaced in, maybe focus a little more on the others, but look at the replacements too,also your 2 in this list thing doesn't mean too much, because that's a little more than half of us now, so the chances would be good with any 8 that there are 2 in there.
The pro town bit, everyone is trying to look pro-town, SK and Townie alike. Judging people off that is a logical fallacy.

[YagamiLight]

I think ST is reacting reasonable, even if he has said he overreacted, because he was FoS'ed for the posting thing (which I think was something about posting more today then yesterday, or vice versa) and for the replacements thing. Like has already been said, SK's could have been replaced because of RL issues.

[YagamiLight]

Sir Tornado I don't expect every townie to get replaced. I was just planting a few seeds, as I'd expect serial killers to be shall we say more excited about their role. It's a given fact plenty of players prefer night actions and what not.

You've admitted you've over-reacted fair enough, I don't think you've done much scummy and I'm not even voting you but it was pretty defensive all the same especially as I wasn't singling you out.

YagamiLight's trying to appease everyone is annoying me aswell, someone start a fight with him pls.

I'm not trying to appease everyone, I'm saying that I'm with ST in that we shouldn't use the fact that someone replaced to help us decide if they are an SK or not. I think he is in the right here. Jordan FoS'ed him because for the posting thing and not having been replaced. Like you said, not every townie will be replaced, and often enough replacements happen for reasons outside the game, and therefore even an SK can get replaced.

[YagamiLight]

Sweet I've got two votes. As has Qman and Sir Tornado.

Anyways

unvote, vote Bethelmark

Maybe some votes will make the guy speak, plus he hasn't flaked yet so fits my earlier theory.

Your theory was based on flaking and looking protown. These mean nothing, because not only pro-town will flake, flaking often happens due to

outside

influences. Also, looking pro-town is something everyone wants to do. Your going back to too townie WIFOM. Adding your theory and the flaking comment seems scummy.

Vote theopor_COD

[YagamiLight]

True, but you could have gone with this,

I'm in favor of lynching lurkers, but only if there is no other behavior to go off of. I agree that we should play this game like normal and lynch based on scummy behavior, but I have no qualms of lynching a lurker if we have no other information.

Also, I can't remember who I was voting for (and I'm pretty sure it was random), so

Unvote

.

He says here that he is in favor of lynching lurker's, but is now lurking. Thus he is in favor of lynching himself.

[YagamiLight]

but Jordan, I feel, is lynch-worthy as well.

Why?

A handful of times throughout the game you have declared individuals are town based on WIFOM logic.

If you're talking about my "SK's are less likely to flake theory", two problems:

1) It's not WIFOM, why would someone flake so someone who happens to replace them gets a better chance of winning.

2) You're ignoring Theo.

It is WIFOM, there are plenty of reasons to be replaced

outside

the game. They aren't really giving a replacement a better chance to win, they are giving the replacement the same chance to win they had, unless we look at your theory, then in replacement SK does have a god chance to win because we wouldn't look at them. And, I know you weren't talking to me with number 2, but I'm not ignoring theo, but I don't like this statement because it sounds like you want him to leave you alone and go after theo.

[YagamiLight]

I don't like either theory, both SK, and town are trying to lynch SK, and the SK can NK, but this allows them to limit the number of possible SK's for everyone. Both will have the same amount of trouble throughout the game, unless an SK targets another. If people replace, and not for outside issues, then it is probably because they think the game is to hard. Thus, if your theory is too have

any

merit, it would have to only look at replacements after an SK targeted another, when they would have an advantage.

[YagamiLight]

Okay, I was looking at the wrong theory, but you did post a theory about replacements, that's what I was looking at.

[YagamiLight]

Okay, that theory, I'm not really sure, I don't really think its true, but I don't know why.

[YagamiLight]

Jordan, I just noticed that this argument of mine still stands...

but Jordan, I feel, is lynch-worthy as well.

Why?

A handful of times throughout the game you have declared individuals are town based on WIFOM logic.

If you're talking about my "SK's are less likely to flake theory", two problems:

1) It's not WIFOM, why would someone flake so someone who happens to replace them gets a better chance of winning.

2) You're ignoring Theo.

It is WIFOM, there are plenty of reasons to be replaced

outside

the game. They aren't really giving a replacement a better chance to win, they are giving the replacement the same chance to win they had, unless we look at your theory, then in replacement SK does have a god chance to win because we wouldn't look at them. And, I know you weren't talking to me with number 2, but I'm not ignoring theo, but I don't like this statement because it sounds like you want him to leave you alone and go after theo.

This stands, because you are talking about your "SK's are less likely to flake theory", so I was talking about the right theory, and you just changed which theory after the fact. I'm torn between who's scummier, you or theo.

[YagamiLight]

Okay, your right that you don't have a theory like that, and I see why you might bring it up. It still seems odd calling it your theory, but that seems more like a mistake. I understand all that, but I still don't like your comment about ignoring theo, for why I said. Also, I think when Butte says bandwagoning the idea he means agreeing with it, and using it.

[YagamiLight]

I would be fine with

unvote Vote Lowell

, afterall, I unvoted because I hadn't liked JDodge's post about the FOS'ing, but Lowell was still pretty suspicious.

[YagamiLight]

I have been looking at both of them, but this day has slowed down. If other people agree, and it wouldn't just slow the day down more, I would be willing to return to theo, not as sure about Jordan.

[YagamiLight]

Theo, any reasons? I would rather lynch you.
1. In post 597 you just vote for Estes saying he looks scummier, then in post 665 you tell Jordan to post a case you can respond to, when you didn't do the same for Estes.
2. In post 634 you try to defend your self with WIFOM, and claim it isn't (it is).
3. In post 703 you vote for DYH, and give the reason that your happier about Butte and Yogurt (you do mean that they seem less scummy?).
Given these, I would rather lynch you than Lowell, and given we have till Saturday, I"m going to

unvote, vote theopor_COD

.

[YagamiLight]

Theo, You don't need a massive content filled case, just at least one reason for why they seem scummy.
I understand your reasoning for why they seemed more pro-town, it was the vote on DYH I was questioning, for a similar reason as the Estes one.
It is interesting no one hammered Lowell. And I completely agree with your last paragraph, but Qman's right, that does look like an appeal to emotion.

[YagamiLight]

Thats a No True Scotsman argument, it may not be normal for scum to do it, but that doesn't mean its not possible. though to be honest, I'm not as sure after it.

[YagamiLight]

You know, I'm beginning to think maybe we should go back to trying to lynch those contributing the least, because this is going to be extremely hard for Town until we get near the end where the SK's have to actively try and out the other SK's (by then they will probably know each other). I"m going to

unvote

, and rethink this whole game.

[YagamiLight]

well, after looking through the game again, I'm, going to have to

vote Theo

, because he still looks scummy regardless of his self vote.

[YagamiLight]

Vamp, after almost 2 weeks of not posting, you come back sounding worried about a lynch. If you really where worried about this lynch you should have argued against it and suggested better choices.

[YagamiLight]

vote VampanezeHunter

He comes in page 27 then page 29 he random votes. Then, come lynch, he comes in sounding worried about the lynch when he hadn't said anything in 2 weeks.

[YagamiLight]

EBWODP
nevermind, he's being replaced,

unvote

.

[YagamiLight]

Jalyn, is your only reason the dayvig reaction? Thats the only reason I see you give.

[YagamiLight]

I motion the SK's kill the lurkers to keep this game alive . Any other news, Jalyn, come back, you haven't answered our questions.

[YagamiLight]

Yeah, Lowell, an SK got you.

In other news, I agree with Jalyn's points, well, except for one. I do believe that his hammering of Theo is not a tell, given that Theo did ask him to hammer. So, for now,

vote ButteBlues

.

[YagamiLight]

Anyone playing this game that wants to save it post anything, even if it's just hi.
I have an idea to try and bring this game back to life. I'll post it in 24 hours from this post.

[YagamiLight]

EBWODP
just realized I have class at that time, so add about 30 min to that.

[YagamiLight]

Wait, there's only 4 of us who want to continue? Wow, this game really did die.

[YagamiLight]

If our mod is still watching, we can always see if he will mod kill everyone who didn't respond, and just finish the game with the 5 of us.

[YagamiLight]

Well, really, I was going to suggest something similar to this, had we had more people wanting to play.