Mafia 66: Freelancer - Game over!

[Qman]

Random.org = 11
So....

VOTE RYAN

[Qman]

Unvote,Vote:Givlmrak

Waffle lovers are crazy.

[Qman]

Yogurt has the right idea, also I dislike the fact that two people opted to try and get a bandwagon vote rolling on me.

I got my eye on you Qman and Black-Moon.

Not my fault you talked abut waffles! And two votes in a 20 person game does nto a bandwagon make.

[Qman]

[quote="Battle Mage"][quote="YogurtBandit"][quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"]I truelly think trying to find SK's in general is almost impossible. I think a good random day 1 bandwagon would be good...[/quote]

Not likeing that post. You're telling us to give up hope on finding on finding Sk's just because it is almost impossible in general? TThen you say a good random D1 bandwagon would be good.

Fos: Kaleidoscope

[/quote]

hmm, i disagree YB. K-Scope has a point, that SK's arent subject to many scumtells used to detect Mafia. Of course, they will gradually become easier to spot as the game progresses, as they will be amongst the most opportunistic, defensive players imho.[/quote]


Mmmm Yes and no,

SK's won't fall into true scum tells in the sense of the way actual Mafia does, but I'm hoping the role could come out subconciously through thier posts. It is possible for an SK to find out who another SK is though a failed NK as well. The only way a target doesn't die is if the target is an NK. I'm hoping that in the later part as SK find each other that thier posting styles will give them away.

[Qman]

EBWOP:

The only way a target doesn't die is if the target is an NK.

Should be

The only way a target doesn't die is if the target is an SK.

[Qman]

Thats the point I was trying to make, late game the Sk's have to push for the other SK's to get lynched. Hopefully that push will give them away

[Qman]

I was trying to imply we'd find those who like waffles and then question them! Now I am subject to my own inquisition!

NO ONE ESCAPES THE PANCAKE INQUISITION!

UNVOTE

I'm watchin you, I'll trust you this time... waffle boy.

[Qman]

Doh. I need to go watch that again.

MMmmmmm.

Holy hand grenade.

[Qman]

What up the mini bandwagon that is currently starting on Givlmrak right now, bad or warranted?

It's based on the fact that he asked who liked waffles.

[Qman]

Since you posted Qman, what do you think about voting off lurkers?

Can't find a flaw in the theory, getting SK's to trip up will be alot harder than getting mafia to trip up as they aren't about to protect each other, heck they don't even know each other. We are in a really odd position here on day 1.

Of the options we have: lynching people that are posting and contributing versus lynching people that are just lurking, I'd have too chose option 2, because at least then we have info to go off of later in the game when we can start looking back.

[Qman]

UNVOTE;VOTE BLAHGO

1 post, his random.

let see if this tactic makes him perk up and participate.

[Qman]

Well if one SK kills another won't that be let known to the rest of the town? I mean we'll know that after they die and their role is revealed. I agree losing three in one night is a bad thing but that could happen even if we agree on a lynch, we could hit a townie with a lynch and lose three anyway. It's a tough numbers game but with 20 players we should have some better content to go by

SK's are immune from NK's

[Qman]

in fact, whilst i have no qualm about killing a lurker today, i really dislike that comment by Qman, so

Unvote, Vote: Qman

which comment might I ask?

[Qman]

NO I read teh post, i want to know why it bothers you instead of a smart ass go read it answer. I've read it, twice now, and i still don't get what exactly i said that is tweaking your nose so hard.

[Qman]

OH damn now youll get mad both MoS and I asked the same thing.

This time i actually didn't read his post before i psoted. such is life

[Qman]

Ok BM, who's our first day best lynch?

hmm, see my vote. id figure thats a good place for a wagon atm. Still, id like to see alot more discussion before any lynch is made...

If you can come up with a convincing reason not to lynch lurkers besides "what do we learn now", I'll gladly listen, but my belief is that we will learn less in the LONG run (which is how I think we have to win this game) if we lynch an active poster versus someone who's contributions to this point are a random vote and saying lynch anyone lurking but me.

Color me stupid if you like, but I'm pretty sure lynching someone thats *playing* the game instead of a lurker when we are still in the crapshoot of a first day with this setup is the best long term plan for the town. Information is key and we certainly aren't getting information out of blahgo.

[Qman]

@QMan- the comment bothers me because it looks like you were trying to validate a vote with game theory, however this game theory was incorrect. it put you as a preferable vote to a lurker at this point.

Just because you believe it to be wrong does not invalidate the theory. It's your opinion, and others can and do have the right to a different opinion. Beyond that I have no further comment on this issue.

I believe the theory to be a valid one day one for THIS PARTICULAR SETUP. Apparently by the number of people voting blahgo, a goodly number of us also agree it's the best way to go for day 1. Please don't single me out for something many other people are doing as well.

[Qman]

Actually, I disagree that lynching a lurker is a good strategy, even for this setup. I only suggested this for 2 reasons:

a) to find out who would support such a horrible idea and pick out the scum
b) to put pressure on the lurker to post and contribute, lest they be lynched.

Also, while Blahgo's response was not helpful AT ALL, I believe that it fits more as a newbish reponse, because scum are more likely to respond to the pressure and try to defend/explain themselves in that sort of situation.

@A.) I'm still not sure it's a bad idea. (I know, NOT helping myself here in your eyes.) If blahgo insists on doing nothing to contribute to the game, I'd rather remove him than someone that is active. Lurkers suck. If blahgos only answer to being bandwagoned is "lynch the other lurkers not me", he's not going to be a benefit to us in the long run. The easiest way to *not* paint yourself into a corner is to simply not talk. He seems to be trying that approach.

@B.) This is my *main* thrust with this theory, I have zero problem moving my vote to someone else that is lurking to force them to participate as well. But again, blahgo has said jack since he got bandwagoned to L-2, obviously (at least in my eyes) he doesn't care, or want to participate. That just rubs me wrong.

[Qman]

Since Blahgo is being replaced with someone (we hope) that won't be a lurkasaurus I'm going to remove my vote. That and other people are making themselves look more SK'ish (read: scummy). Gotta love discussion pickin up.

UNVOTE

votecount please[/]b

[Qman]

errr

votecount please

[Qman]

I haven't posted because I haven't seen a reason to I said my piece and by and large, well, nothing has changed. Though I have been entertained by BM and ryan fighting though.

[Qman]

Sorry for my lac of posting, my whole family is sick. Yay for being a wet nurse.

i have seen your post, but im discussing something with the Mod atm, and i wont be posting content until i have recieved a full response.
In the meantime, keep bandwagonning me. :p

Once more onto the bandwagon, because I REALLY don't like that your entire reason to not post is that you are talking to the mod.

You've had time to post, you haven't. So

unvote:vote:BM

[Qman]

votecount

[Qman]

Still not fixed, you have 3 listed on Lowell now.

Since Jordan is talking and most of my vote was based on BM's actions, I'll sit back and

Unvote

[Qman]

MOD

I unvoted in post 298

[Qman]

For the record, I think a no lynch would be a bad idea, we only have a limited number of shots to lynch the SK's and giving up one of the 4-5 chances we will have to kill them. Giving one up really gets just helps to dig a hole for us to have to crawl out of.

I think it will be nearly impossible day 1 to get a solid read on anyone (to some extent this lasts all game) as everyone is protecting their own head. I don't think we can even read into people defending others for thisg ame because in the end everyone is putting themselves first. I suspect that in the end, we'll find the SK's through who they push to get lynched, but otherwise we will be limited in true scum tells.

[Qman]

I think I'm not voting, I need to do a bit of reading back, I've been pretty busy the last couple days and haven't had the time to check in fully.

Plus I don't in general think voting without a deadline on us is really needed.

[Qman]

Clarification of the above post:

Plus I don't think in general voting without a deadline on us is really needed, if the vote is in effect, a random vote, which mine would be until tomorrow night when I actually have the time to read the posts since Tuesday

[Qman]

What do you think I've been trying to do? I've already found two possible scum, and a bunch of idiots are running around talking about how it's impossible to get scumtells and how we should just randomly select someone to die. It's idiocy...

Ignoring the ad hom aspect of that post...

Who are your two, and why?

It's really hard for me to take you seriously when you are insulting people that don't agree with your particular approach, please stop doing that.

Thank you.

[Qman]

I'm shocked K-Scope didn't turn up scum.

My surprise was that MoS and both of the people he thought were scum are all town, and now dead.

[Qman]

Only 2 kills, but 3 SKs? Hmm...

My plan today is to just sit around until someone says "hey, *wink wink* I have good reason to think we should kill player X, *wink wink*".

Then I'll kill player X.

Then his accuser.



Sounds pretty good to me. Anyone?

Kill eh?

I have three problems with this statement.

1.) All it does is put out a roadblock for anyone to actually do anything, you are tryign to tie the towns hands. Scummy.

2.) It is entirely possible that two SK's targeted the same person, the only way anyone can be sure a NK was blocked is if it happened to them. You seem pretty sure.

3.) Sayign you will KILL people versus lynch reads as a slip up, it certainly doesn't sound or look townie at all.

vote Lowell

[Qman]

And everyone y'know our good friends the serials may well still not have a clue who who's who. Two of em could quite easily targeted MoS or Scope.

Nothing about the nightscene leads me to believe this. I think one targetted another.

Also, math-wise (someone tried this *ahem* poorly, already), it's twice as likely that one targeted another than two targeted the same person.

One SK:
1/18 = 5.56% chance of targeting x person.

Chance of two SK's targeting the same person:
1/18 * 1/18 = (0.0556 * 0.0556) 0.31% chance two Sk's targeted the same person.

For giggles:
Chance of three SK's targeting the same person:
1/18 * 1/18 * 1/18 = 0.02% chance of happening.

That said, in a game that just finished (Chinese New Year) two nights in a row the Mafia and SK targeted the same person for an NK. So it can happen. (Incidently, the odds of that happening two nights in a row are 0.09%)


Qman: Currently enrolled in Statistics

[Qman]

EBWOP:

I forgot to say, it's a hell of a lot more than twice as likely that an SK targetted another SK than a double targeting.. Around 12 times as likely.

[Qman]

Whatever, this doesn't matter. But peopel who are bad at math annoy me (esp when they think they're good at it)

ROUGHLY:

16 players,

SK #1: chance of "repeating" hit on town 0/15
SK #1; chance of hitting another SK 2/15

SK #2: chance of "repeating" hit on SK1's townie 1/15
SK #2: chance of hitting another SK 2/15

SK #3: chance of "repeating" hit on townie 2/15
SK #3: chance of hitting another SK 2/15

It's twice as likely, not 12 times or whatever.

You're bewildering stat was for A CERTAIN TOWNIE, not ANY TOWNIE. It shouldnt' be 1/18 * 1/18 * 1/18, it should be 13/15 (the odds of first hitting townie) *1/15 (SK2 hitting same) * 1/15 (SK 3 hitting same).
Anyway, carry on.

Admitting I should hav eused a base of 17 since You chouldn't count yourself...

Your numbers aren't accurate at all. We are talking all targets, not just townies. Night 1. SK kills are independant events, not dependant.

Suing your numbers 13/15 * 1/15, you end up with a 5.8% chance of double targetting one person... that's HIGHER than the chance of one SK targeting ONE PERSON. (5.7%)

SK #1: chance of hitting X Target 1/17
SK #1; chance of hitting another SK 2/17

SK #2: chance of "repeating" hit on SK1's Target: 1/17*1/17 (Probablity mathematics on Independant events dictates A * B for the probablity.
SK #2: chance of hitting another SK 2/17

SK #3: chance of "Double - repeating" hit SK'1 and SK's Target: 1/17 * 1/17 * 1/17
SK #3: chance of hitting another SK 2/17

[Qman]

Hmm. Typo's galore in my prior post.
Anyways, the correct %'s.

1/17 = 5.88% chance of any one person being hit.

1/17 * 1/17 = 0.35% chance of a double target

1/17 * 1/17 * 1/17 0.02% chance of a triple target

[Qman]

You're bewildering stat was for A CERTAIN TOWNIE, not ANY TOWNIE. It shouldnt' be 1/18 * 1/18 * 1/18, it should be 13/15 (the odds of first hitting townie) *1/15 (SK2 hitting same) * 1/15 (SK 3 hitting same).

Under any statistical analysis of INDEPENDANT EVENTS (SK night kills) You have to use one specific choice as a baseline.

If there are three people, 2 boys and 1 girl, your odds of choosing the girl are 33% (1/3).

If you choose again, it is still 33%. However as the results of the test are INDEPENDANT, your chance of choosing the girl both times is 0.33 * 0.33 = 10.89%.

Now if it was depedant (SK NK"s aren't) that chance would be 33% across the board since you are looking at each selection as a solitary event, rather than as a series.


The chances of 2 SK's targeting You are the same as 2 SK's targeting you, the fact that there are 14 other townies doesn't matter for crap beyond establishing the baseline of 17 targets to choose from.

[Qman]

Though, those numbers probably still don't mean much, since obviously, some players will be better targets than others.

Agreed, there are variable that this isn't accounting for (Players actions, SK's personal feelings, etc) but the hard line number without variables is a pretty damn small chance.

[Qman]

EBWOP: (More in my flood of statistic's posts, yay numbers.)

The chances of 2 SK's targeting You are the same as 2 SK's targeting

you

Should be:

The chances of 2 SK's targeting you are the same as 2 SK's targeting

ME

[Qman]

We'll, I don't see reasons why the SK's would target specific people. If someone is finding a lot of scum tells on you (suppose an SK), and they die that night,it would be WIFOM to say you were scum, but it wouldn't matter as they already got attention on you. Based on this and that there are no power roles, it seems like random kills is all you really need, and what I would use if I were an SK.

The only reason that comes to mind for an SK to target someone outside randomness is if they suspect that person is an SK and want to confirm if they are or aren't. The Sk's do have to get the other SK's lynched, after all.

[Qman]

I agree with you about the replacements though, I know if I had an SK role, I wouldn't want to be replaced, IMO SK is the coolest role you could have, you get to kill every night without having to cover up for scumbuddies.

Do you want to be replaced Jordan? If you don't, then is this an admission that you are a SK?

Of course it's not, I'm very happy with my townie role, and I certainly wouldn't admit I was an SK if I was one under no pressure at all.

What a load of bull. You wouldn't admit you were an SK even if you were under a lot of pressure, It'd be stupid to do. Talk about a space filling statement that is meant to look good.

unvote, Vote jordan

[Qman]

but Jordan, I feel, is lynch-worthy as well.

Why?

A handful of times throughout the game you have declared individuals are town based on WIFOM logic.

If you're talking about my "SK's are less likely to flake theory", two problems:

1) It's not WIFOM, why would someone flake so someone who happens to replace them gets a better chance of winning.

2) You're ignoring Theo.

Oh yeah, my vote sooo stands.

[Qman]

I'm going to be away for two weeks as from this time next week, if you want to lynch me go ahead it will prove futile however if you want to stop the serial killers winning, main thing we need is everyone actively playing and posting.

unvote:vote Theo

Appeal to emotion.

[Qman]

A) She

B) I placed a vote for the person I thought looked suspicious, unlike either Lowell or Theo.

C) I apologized for being quiet. Other games, real life and not being exactly sure what to look for in this game have distracted me a bit.

D)

vote: ButtesBlues

for all of the reasons that I gave yesterday

I'd like a further explaination myself, BB is pretty firmly on my "not an SK" list.

[Qman]

howdy ho!

[Qman]

If our mod is still watching, we can always see if he will mod kill everyone who didn't respond, and just finish the game with the 5 of us.

WTF. I want to clear up my self imposed open game limit of 1

[Qman]

ERRRRR oops! ha

QFT! not WFT!

[Qman]

*Sigh*

I'd rather give this game up than contiune with half the people not even having posted. MOD: Would you consider modkilling the people that aren't doing anything and carrying on from there, the game is dead.

[Qman]

MOD see above post please

[Qman]

Thank you

[Qman]

yeah, i'm waiting for the last wave of modkills myself.

PANCAKES FOR LIFE!

[Qman]

I'd ask everyone to unvote until the modkills are done, the last thing we really want to do is waste a day right as the game is getting back on track.

[Qman]

6 alive, 2 sks's if i count right

[Qman]

I've been out of town for a wedding, i guess i forgot to post that. Doh. I'll check in here shortly after i finish unpacking.

[Qman]

vote Jayln

Just cause!