Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Glork]

Something like that.

I'm guessing our last two scums are likely among {Zindaras, CES, Nightfall}.

[Glork]

I think we should lynch Nightfall and ask for an overnight modkill on Zindaras. Who's with me? <.<

[Glork]

I think I could see Nightfall/MBL, actually. I need to go re-read MBL to see how feasable that actually is.

I could still see Zindie/CES, Nightfall/CES, or Nightfall/Zindie, too. Considering moving my vote to Nightfall, but I really, really, *REALLY* think that we need to hear back from Zindaras soon.

[Glork]

Actually, yeah, MBL/Nightfall is looking really good right now. After isolating MBL's posts, he really never says much against Nightfall other than "thin contribution" early on. He defends Nightfall against Ether, saying that Nightfall's analysis is more substantial than that of "any other player" in the very same paragraph where he passively notes that Nightfall failed to analyze anyone between MGM and Zindaras, alphabetically. He later posits that Ether is scum for her stance against Nightfall. It seems to me that MBL has commented more readily on just about every other player, and he's asked critical questions of other player's posts/analyses. The extent of his questioning Nightfall is in Post 706 where he more voices disagreement than a critical question of Nightfall's posting habits. I don't really buy his "I was trying to obfuscate the situation because I thought you were being too obvious as a Cop" attitude. It doesn't seem like something that makes any sense to me, and it looks like a really weak explanation of why he defended CDB early on like that. His defense is entirely contingent upon us believing that he's a pro-town palyer who decided (even after calling CDB's wagon "suspiciously scum-driven") that I was the Cop. Unfortunately, none of us can take that on face-value. I find it just as likely that MBL *is* scum and that he knew CDB was doomed to failure. I think that once I dropped the cop-hints, he went back and looked at my posts and realized why I all of a sudden trusted Fritzler. And that's why I think Fritz was nightkilled instead of me.

[Glork]

Unvote, Vote: Nightfall

Definitely more confident in Nightfall than in MBL... I'm willing to put MBL off until we learn Nightfall's alignment. But I'm glad that I've sparked some additional interest. I'm becoming increasingly convinced that Nightfall is today's play, and that the fallout from his lynch will really help steer us from here on out.

[Glork]

MBL: My vote for Ether was pure pressure. I wanted her to post something significant. I liked her case against Nightfall, I've had lingering suspicions of Nightfall (in spite of the fact that I also found Ether somewhat suspicious). All of this was lost in the crash.

I have also already explained why I thought Fritz was a cop: http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 406#574406

I was not picking up any coptells from CES, and Thesp was certainly not behaving like a Cop. Mostly, though, it's the fact that Fritz's "X is pro-town" play is so

exclusively

a sign that he's a Cop (or, at least, that he has reliable role information) that I couldn't see him doing it as either a Townie or a Mafiate.

I would also like to point out that your comment me saying "I still believe Thesp is pro-town" is a misrepresentation. The word

still

is in there because I was responding to CES's point that Thesp misreported deadline lynch rules. If you look at the context of that post, it should be fairly clear that the sentence reads "Even though Thesp told us the wrong deadline-lynch rules, I believe that he is pro-town." The "still" should read "in spite of X."

I like what you're trying to do with the whole "look at you suddenly turn on CDB" thing. But you're pretty much completely wrong. First of all, even if I were scum and thought FritzCop and ThespTown, that would give me no incentive to suddenly want to bus CDB. Thesp was the only person attacking CDB at the time; Fritz didn't start voting CDB until I basically told him to do so. I don't understand how realizing Fritz was a Cop would suddenly give me the drive to bus CDB. Secondly, I can say with 100% confidence and honesty that if I thought Fritz were a cop during my re-read, it would

NOT

change my opinions that much as scum. Look back at Mafia 49 when I correctly picked out FritzCop as scum and said or did *NOTHING* to change my stance. I reported to my scumbuddies that night and we killed him. Plain and simple. It makes no sense whatsoever for me to go "Hay, I know Fritz is the Cop and I'm changing my stance because of it" as scum. Continue along the same track (going after Zindie/CES mostly) and just off Fritz quietly in the night.

However, your case isn't quite the same. When you came to your realization, there was already a substantial voting bloc (Thesp, Glork, Fritz) on CDB -- and you *KNEW* that none of us would be moving, because Fritz knew Thesp was town and I knew that both were town (both cases barring ThespGF, of course). You have

every

reason to jump aboard and try to gain some footing with that bloc, which is why it makes far more sense for you to be the CDB-buser than me.

MBL, what do you think of the interactions between me and CDB during Days 1 and 2? Do you think they're indicative of a scumpairing?

[Glork]

I'm having such a horrible week.

I'll review pre-deadline.

[Glork]

Thesp, you should seriously vote for Nightfall.

MBL, I'd like to hear a response to my most recent post. I'd also like you to drop the hammer on your scumbuddy Nightfall.

[Glork]

I don't really have anything to say about you. You're already voting Nightfall, so I don't need to tell you to do so. And you're less likely than MBL to be scum, so I don't need to remind everybody of that fact.


You just like the attention, don't you?

[Glork]

*shrug*

I don't see why what he did is "horribly scummy." He

did

make a point in that you were still avoiding any kind of List of Suspcions. Though his CDB comment was a little over-the-top, I don't necessarily see that as an indication of scumminess.

[Glork]

I posted this in V/LA, but I'm going to have

severely

reduced access over the next 8-10 days. I'm still going to try to post in all of my games every other day or so.

[Glork]

Thesp, are you Nightfall's godfather?

[Glork]

I agree with CES that we should lynch somebody today. Furthermore, Zindaras seems to be back on-site, so here's hoping that he actually makes that lifesaving post in the next day and a half or so.

Patrick, would you rather lynch Nightfall or CES? I would obviously prefer Nightfall, but if that's not going to happen, I'd move to CES before the deadline.

[Glork]

MBL, could you please point out what post(s) Nightfall has made that "scum could not possibly make" and could you explain exactly why you don't think he could/would post as such if he were scum?

[Glork]

EBWODP: Actually, do the same with Patrick, Ether, and MGM, too, please.

[Glork]

....



Pro-Tip, MBL: When you find something definitive as "no person could make this post as scum,"

note where you found this tell.

I would think that by now, you'd realize that making such a bold statement would eventually elicit an inquiry or two as to what extreme pro-town tell you found.

[Glork]

Why?

[Glork]

Vote: Zindaras

no reason not to go back to my top suspect with deadline extended.

Why?

[Glork]

I don't know about Zindaras yet. I want summary cases against him so that, in the next few days, I can review them myself and see where I actually stand. I've wavered on Zindaras a lot lately, and more than anything I just wish he were around to answer the questions being asked of him. My only thought right now is that if he's not going to show up, and if he'll be modkilled at the end of the day, we might as well lynch him now and potentially save ourselves from having to No-Lynch down the road.

Nightfall's posts bother me. If you'll notice, his most recent suspicions have been CES, Glork (to a lesser extent), and Ether. I find it interesting that in Post 1326, the VC shows the three of us voting Nightfall, and in 1328, Nightfall continues his quest against Ether (they've been sparring all game) but adds that last sentence that Glork/CES are "giving [him] grave concerns." It feels like nothing more than mass OMGUS to me. Everyone who suspects Nightfall is suspicious. Nightfall, could you recap your case against CES please? Why do you think he is scum? Why do you want him lynched?


I'm also waiting for MBL to outline his case against Zindaras. I am especially interested in hearing his opinions.

[Glork]

I'd still rather be lynching MBL and Nightfall. I refuse to switch to Zindaras at this point. I'm also

still

waiting for MBL to restate his case against Zindaras.

[Glork]

The hell, MBL? I dropped my case against Zindie long ago, and I've got my sights set

squarely

on you and Nightfall. I think that I've made this

abundantly clear

by now.

I will also point out that you never bothered to go back and look for any of the "posts which no scum could possibly make" that you said you would try to do.

Unvote, Vote: MBL

Your aversions to my inquiries end here and now. Answer to me or I will do nothing but call for your lynch until one of us is dead. You're scum and I know it and the fact that you're getting away with doing

nothing

is really starting to piss me off.



Patrick, Thesp, Ether, CES -- take a long, hard look at MBL's posts. I want you to speak up and tell me what

you

think of him. Because I feel like with all the shit MBL is spewing, he's just being completely overlooked. Look at his behavior towards CDB. Look at his interactions with Nightfall and with other living players. Look at his "case" against Zindaras. And for the love of God, if you think he's still pro-town after all of that, please explain it to me.

[Glork]

Come to think of it, your post doesn't even make

ANY

sense at this point, considering I had just said that I would REFUSE to move to Zindaras. I don't

HAVE

a case against Zindaras. In fact, I'm practically

DEFENDING

him, because I feel tha this absence is being taken advantage of by somebody (namely you, MBL) who wants to stall the day and result in a Zindaras-lynch or a No-Lynch+ZindieModkill.

I also want you to tell me, MBL, who you'll be looking at if Zindaras is today's only death and he turns out to be

pro-town

. What happens if you're wrong?


So... just to repeat myself and make things completely, 100% clear, I want you to answer three things to me immediately:
1) What posts did people make that you think "no scum could make"?
2) Why do you think that Zindaras is a scumbag and that he should be lynched?
3) Where would your suspicions lie if Zindaras were lynched today as a pro-town player?

I'm sick of this "you're not looking, so I'm not going to tell you" attitude. After the shit you pulled with CDB -- claiming you saw something "naughty" in his posting and telling people to go look for it, and then backtracking to say that you were bluffing all along -- I'm not going to accept any of this "go look for it yourself" attitude. I want you to answer me clearly, directly, and concisely.

[Glork]

You know what, <<EXPLETIVE DELETED>> it, I'm just going to keep on going with this. I also know

for a fact

that Zindaras' activity across the board has practically disappeared in the past month. I've known him since we were on MafiaScum, and I know that he's got Real-Life issues that are preventing him from participating. The fact that he kept trying to come back and run analyses is something that I now see as a distinct

pro-town

sign, rather than a scumtell. It says that he was trying to contribute even when he knew he couldn't keep up. This "way Zindaras keeps floating in and out" bullshit that MBL was spewing when he said Zindie was 40% likely to be scum (yes, I just went back and glanced at MBL's earlier posts) comes from nothing. It comes from the fact that MBL is taking advantage of the fact that Zindaras

wanted

to be here, but

isn't

.

Perhaps by now he's just given up. I don't know. I'd like him to come in and, if nothing else, answer that for us. But I no longer for a second believe that he is scum, and I will not stand for us to sit back doing nothing while he gets lynched or modkilled. Zindaras' absence is

NOTHING

like Nightson's absence in the late portions of Space Monkey Mafia. He isn't scum. I don't know how many more times I can say that.

[Glork]

EBWOP: *since before we were on MafiaScum

[Glork]

Heh. Strange response, CES.

Let's just say that if I were a vig, I'd be killing MBL overnight. I'll either be like 95% confident or back down to 50% confident after he responds. But for now, I think he is definitely the play of the day. I think that MBL has a lot to answer for.

[Glork]

Well yes, but I have been known to be over-accusatory towards MBL before, so I'm trying to take into account the fact that his playstyle is just off-putting to me.

I also see Nightfall as my other top lynch candidate, but we can't seem to get more than two people to vote for him. I want one of them lynched today, and I won't move my vote elsewhere.

[Glork]

Well then.


Please kill MBL immediately.

[Glork]

...at least I'll very, very likely get an answer to my Question #3.... I still want MBL to answer both Questions 1 and 2 -- yes, even the one about him outlining his case against Zindaras.

[Glork]

...so your defense is essentially "I was wrong, but the scums were sitting back not attacking Zindaras so I'm not scum." Am I missing something?


MBL, I demand that if you go to lynch anybody today, it's me. I'd rather die and have my alignment revealed to everybody so that they can take you down in a fiery salvo tomorrow. I think you know that once I'm revealed as town, your house of cards will collapse all around you. Ever since the day started, you've accused me of being scum, but you still refuse to lay a vote down on me. I think it's for one of two reasons: You're worried that you can't actually get anybody else to follow you for a mislynch; or you're petrified that once I'm revealed as a pro-town entity, it will be

damning

for you as a player.

My old case against Zindaras was laid out long ago, back on Day Three when I was making my analyses. I posited that he was scum for his own rights, and I eventually connected him to CDB when I decided that CDB was likely scum. However, as today progressed, I obviously moved away from that stance. You say that I'm being opportunistic by going after Nightfall and yourself, yet you were the one pushing a lynch against an inactive player without making a substantial (or even well-defined) case of your own.

Did you ever stop to think for maybe just one second that the reason nobody would put forth a case against Zindaras is because players slowly realized that said case was little more than steam? That, combined with Ether's post (which was lost in the crash) convinced me that Nightfall was probably scum, and you (along with a re-read of interactions between you/CDB and you/Nightfall) have convinced me with your recent actions that you are the other scumbag. If you bothered to read the thread, you would notice why other players' suspicions have waned. The reason that Zindaras wasn't getting lynched is not because scum were too afraid to do it. It's because as it turns out, none of the Townies (except Patrick and, to a lesser extent, Ether IIRC)

really

actually thought that Zindie was scum when all was said and done.

You accuse me of not diligently hunting scum in the past day. I will admit that my activity today has not been up to snuff. I mostly blame graduation. But I think I proved my

diligence

yesterday when I read through some 27 pages, noted everything that looked interesting to me, found the Cop, decided Thesp was scum, voted for CDB, and got Fritz to follow me onto CDB -- which

eventually

led to his demise.

You also say you wanted to hear my DEFENSE of Zindaras. I gave it to you. I fulfilled your desire. What do you think of that defense? You say nothing about it -- nothing at all, except your unfounded repetition that I'm acting weird, that

you

wanted to see what everyone

else

had to say. I find it more-than-alarming that while you use this as your excuse for saying nothing, you attack *ME* for doing essentially the same thing. Yes, I said that I wanted opinions to formulate my own opinion. That was... a half-truth. I was already moving away from Zindaras, but I wanted to see

why

people were attacking Zindaras because

motive

and

intent

are important at this stage. I said that if we were going to pussy-foot around and do nothing, that we might as well just lynch Zindaras, because Zindie getting modkilled would likely mean a forced no-lynch the following day. I meant that 100%. Now it *does* look as though (unless you get lynched today and Nightfall the day after) we're going to have to no-lynch before this game is over. Either that or we can just deal with a 6p or 4p endgame. *shrug*

------

Note, everyone, that in a lengthy post attacking me,

my

tactics, trying to discredit

my

case against him, saying that

my

behavior doesn't ring true, he slips in one "likely scum" comment about CES and Ether, and votes for CES.
His tactic is obvious: Push a mislynch against CES, push a mislynch against Ether (or Thesp/MGM, if one of them becomes more opportune), then go all-out against me in endgame.

If you think I'm a dirty birdy, MBL, I demand that you put your money where your mouth is right now. Don't save me for endgame. Lynch me

today

. I dare you.

In fact, I'm going to suggest to the rest of the town that we lynch one of MBL/me today. It's obvious that there is a scumbag who was

astute

enough to notice that Fritz -- not Glork -- was the last power role remaining, because Fritz -- not Glork -- was killed last night. I acknowledged having recognized FritzCop yesterday. MBL has acknowledged having thought about the Cop situation yesterday (though he'd probably try to pass it off as me being "obvious" with my Cop-tells). We are both very, very observant players. It is extraordinarily likely that one of us is a scumbag.

[Glork]

MBL, this is the second time you have accused me of a slip-of-the-tongue in this game. I'm stating my observations from my perspective. I think that you and Nightfall are the scums, meaning that yes, Ether and Patrick would be Townies. I didn't mention Thesp because I do not recall if he had voiced substantial suspicions of Zindaras. All I remember is that he seems dead-set on lynching CES, and I have not re-read today's happenings in great detail -- in fact, I've mostly focused on your isolated posts.

Furthermore, I would call both Ether and Patrick pro-town based on my metagame of them over the past several games I have played/watched involving them. Can't say much else about that. They both seem like townies to me.

Ether has correctly assessed that this headstrong "you or me" attitude is a pro-town tell of mine, but I suppose it won't be well-publicized until this game is also over. Nevertheless, it *was* accurate in LO2. Now granted, I was wrong about that, and yes, I *am* taking my past experiences with MBL into account. We've butted heads a few times (LO2, KM2) as two townspeople going at it. I'm still put off by his wild speculation that I'm scum with X, Y, Z, or maybe A while his vote sits very quietly on CES.

Why exactly did you move it to CES and not Ether or me?
Why have you not answered my earlier questions?
What are your answers to my earlier questions?

Speak, sir! The Glork commands it!

[Glork]

Reposting for MBL's convenience:

1) What posts did people make that you think "no scum could make"?
2) Why do you think that Zindaras is a scumbag and that he should be lynched?

....and adding a new #3:
3) Since you say you were looking for how and why people defend Zindaras.... What

do

you think of my defense of Zindaras right before his modkilling?

[Glork]

Also Thesp, you posted in other games recently. Are you around? Have you read recent developments? What are your thoughts?

[Glork]

Patrick's right... MBL's list is inaccurate. It should look more like this:
MBL/Nightfall
MgM
CES
Thesp
Zindaras
Ether
Patrick


Nevertheless, MBL, again I ask you: If you're mounting all of this evidence against me, how come you're not coupling it with a vote for me?

[Glork]

They're the most likely to be pro-town in my opinion.

[Glork]

Dear Everybody Else,

Please also ask MBL why he refuses to vote for me even though he believes I am so incredibly scummy. Maybe if he gets enough people demanding an answer, he'll finally give one.

XOXO,
Glork

[Glork]

I don't see how you're speaking in certainties, MBL. I

never

expressed "certainty" that Zindaras was pro-town. Let's look at what I said about Zindaras:

I'd still rather be lynching MBL and Nightfall. I refuse to switch to Zindaras at this point. I'm also

still

waiting for MBL to restate his case against Zindaras.

Come to think of it, your post doesn't even make

ANY

sense at this point, considering I had just said that I would REFUSE to move to Zindaras. I don't

HAVE

a case against Zindaras. In fact, I'm practically

DEFENDING

him, because I feel tha this absence is being taken advantage of by somebody (namely you, MBL) who wants to stall the day and result in a Zindaras-lynch or a No-Lynch+ZindieModkill.

I also want you to tell me, MBL, who you'll be looking at if Zindaras is today's only death and he turns out to be

pro-town

. What happens if you're wrong?


So... just to repeat myself and make things completely, 100% clear, I want you to answer three things to me immediately:
1) What posts did people make that you think "no scum could make"?
2) Why do you think that Zindaras is a scumbag and that he should be lynched?
3) Where would your suspicions lie if Zindaras were lynched today as a pro-town player?

I'm sick of this "you're not looking, so I'm not going to tell you" attitude. After the shit you pulled with CDB -- claiming you saw something "naughty" in his posting and telling people to go look for it, and then backtracking to say that you were bluffing all along -- I'm not going to accept any of this "go look for it yourself" attitude. I want you to answer me clearly, directly, and concisely.

You know what, <<EXPLETIVE DELETED>> it, I'm just going to keep on going with this. I also know

for a fact

that Zindaras' activity across the board has practically disappeared in the past month. I've known him since we were on MafiaScum, and I know that he's got Real-Life issues that are preventing him from participating. The fact that he kept trying to come back and run analyses is something that I now see as a distinct

pro-town

sign, rather than a scumtell. It says that he was trying to contribute even when he knew he couldn't keep up. This "way Zindaras keeps floating in and out" bullshit that MBL was spewing when he said Zindie was 40% likely to be scum (yes, I just went back and glanced at MBL's earlier posts) comes from nothing. It comes from the fact that MBL is taking advantage of the fact that Zindaras

wanted

to be here, but

isn't

.

Perhaps by now he's just given up. I don't know. I'd like him to come in and, if nothing else, answer that for us. But I no longer for a second believe that he is scum, and I will not stand for us to sit back doing nothing while he gets lynched or modkilled. Zindaras' absence is

NOTHING

like Nightson's absence in the late portions of Space Monkey Mafia. He isn't scum. I don't know how many more times I can say that.

Let's look at exactly what I said:

• I refuse to move to Zindaras. I want MBL to explain his case against Zindaras.
  
• I don't have a case against Zindaras -- in fact, I've been defending him.
  
• I
  FEEL
  that his absence is being taken advantage of. Note the lack of certainty -- this is my
  OPINION
  , not a statement of fact.
  
• I want to know what MBL would do
  IF
  Zindaras were killed as a pro-town player. Note I'm speaking theoretically here; there is no statement of fact.
  
• I know that Zindaras' activity is diminished. This is because of his V/LA posts and because of the fact that I had to replace him in my minigame, Mostly Mute: Haiku.
  
• I state that his attempts to provide some kind of participation earlier were something
  that I

  SAW

  as a pro-town tell
  . Again, my
  OPINION
  . There is no statement of fact.
  
• I again state that MBL is taking advantage of Zindaras' position. I do call this a fact, but it's evident that this "fact" comes from my conclusions on Zindaras' behavior and MBL's posting, especially with regards to Zindaras. I should note here that, if MBL wants to accuse me of using "facts," then the only "fact" I expressed is the "fact" that MBL was
  actively taking advantage of Zindaras
  . So yeah, MBL, if you're going to accuse me of having absolute/certain information, then you're basically stating that we would have to be scumbuddies if I "knew for a fact" that your intentions were malicious.
  
• I state the observation that Zindaras' absence does not hold parallels to Nightson's absence from Space Monkeys. That's probably the biggest reason that led to my conclusion that Zindaras was pro-town. I then re-state my conclusion that Zindaras is not scum.

So, Mr. "I'm doing all the legwork and you're being lazy by not reading"... every piece of evidence I had leading to my conclusion was stated in-thread. And other than one hyperbolic sentence in which I state that you are "factually" taking advantage of Zindaras' absence, I do not speak in any absolutes. I'm curious to know how you came to the conclusion that I "knew" that Zindaras was pro-town "with certainty." Because I'm not seeing it. All I'm seeing is that I

concluded

that Zindaras was not scum based on my

observations

of this game. And if that's taboo, I'd really, *REALLY* like to know how you think Mafia should be played.



I'll get a response regarding Patrick later. He's been low on my list pretty much all game, though at this time, I can't properly articulate why that is so. When I get some spare time, I'll look at his posts again and try to explain why I think he is pro-town.

[Glork]

I disagree completely. There were obviously mixed emotions over Zindaras' alignment for the town as a whole, and I truly believe that at least somebody would have stepped up to agree with me. If nobody thought similarly to me, MBL, Zindaras would have been lynched a long time ago. The mod did no favors in choosing to modkill Zindaras when he did (though now that he's posted his upcoming absence, we at least know why he chose to do it at that time).

Why do you find it so difficult to believe that I came to a correct conclusion by completely legitimate means? Is it just because you didn't see it that way and you're being obstinate?

[Glork]

....so changing one's opinion over the course of a few weeks is unreasonable? Is that your argument against me? Nevermind that I made a significant change on CDB/Thesp/Fritz over the course of

days

when I did and posted my re-read of the first 20-something pages of the game.


Gas. Your case against me is all gas.

[Glork]

Okay, quick thing on Nightfall's PBPA posts.

You're saying that you couldn't feasably see scum making detailed PBPAs, but you could see me as scum making Glork125, Glork126, and Glork131 (my detailed PBPA of most of the entire game up to that point)?

[Glork]

Unvote

I'm going to try to re-read most/all of game at some point (not this weekend though... busy both Saturday and Sunday). MBL/Nightfall are still my top two suspects right now, but I may end up eating some of my own words before too long.

[Glork]

FoS: Thesp

I expect

some

level of analysis on everything that has happened recently.

[Glork]

Stating that you think somebody was defending a pro-town player as if the "knew" they were pro-town is ridiculous. In Lights Out 2, back on D1, I made a list of players who I thought were pro-town. As far as I can remember, everybody on that list who died did so as a pro-town player. If you think that she did it in a way such that she "knew" he was pro-town,

show that

. Explain

why

her posts indicated that she

knew

he was pro-town, rather than just defending somebody who she

thought

was pro-town. Saying "I think she knew information that only scum could know" just does not cut it. Point out the specific posts, lines, and phrases that led you to your conclusion.

[Glork]

*BUMP*

I would like to remind everybody that we have less than five days to arrive at a lynch. Considering Thesp, MGM, and Ether have contributed little to nothing in the past five days, this is a very serious issue.

I'm going to go ahead and PM Stoofer asking for an extension, and I encourage at least 3 others to do the same. But the main reason I want an extension is because I want some more very sharp, modprods -- preferrably with a branding iron. Make sure it says "

GLORK'D!

" please, Stoofer.

[Glork]

So because she took the opposite stance as Thesp and happened to be right, she had inside information?

I have

adamantly

demanded people whom I felt were pro-town, even without

knowing

it in past games. I still don't understand how this specific case is different in your eyes.

Out of curiosity, Nightfall: What do you think of Ether's failure to hammer Thesp at the end of Day Two? I do believe that you've posted your thoughts, but my memory fails me...


I'd like to see one more post from somebody else saying they've requested extension, just as insurance.

[Glork]

Vote: Nightfall

MOD: Did you send the prods that I had requested?

[Glork]

This

replacement

modkill policy is ridiculous.

[Glork]

Yay, activity.

MOD:

Will our Nightfall votes transfer over to Battle Mage? (If not,

Vote: Battle Mage

...)

[Glork]

You'll find the reasons for the votes during your re-read, BM. Just note every place where people attack Nightfall -- note especially those attacks made by Ether and the pressure put on you D4 (which is today).

[Glork]

You really think attacks by Ether should get any credit?

Yes.

[Glork]

Still here, still flabergasted by the lack of CES lynchitude.

Hi, please get off of your high horse and lynch Nightfall's replacement.

Or maybe you really

are

his Godfather.

[Glork]

The cases against CES and the former Nightfall aren't any better.

So the whole thing about Nightfall deflecting "ChannelDelibird[SCUM] is lurkerscum" suspicions to Fritz[TOWN] (who was also lurking) is completely invalid?

And yes, you seem to be admitting that you don't actually have a case against anyone else, as Patrick just said.

[Glork]

[Glork]

On the topic of Fritz I must ask, why of all the talk about how I am “lurking” or “not bothering to post” and of how CDB is “attempting to make it look like he is contributing” why isn’t more attention being given to the fact that Fritz too has contributed very little?

[Glork]

EBWODP: I daresay that's

leagues

more substantial than anything you have presented, MGM.

[Glork]

Battle Mage's analysis was rather uninspiring. Why isn't he lynched yet?

[Glork]

could you addres your particular concern with post 595. as far as i can see, it reflects upon Nightfall as protownish, as Nightfall-scum would obviously be making an effort to distance himself from CDB, whereas in reality, he actually agreed with CDB openly. thats either incredibly stupid scum, or rather naive townie.
I cant see how that makes anything near a case however.
BM

Your claim that Nightfall "would obviously...distance himself from CDB" at Post 595 makes no sense to me. CDB was not in any particular amount of danger at that time, so distancing/busing hardly seems necessary. Could you explain

WHY

distancing would "obviously" be the tactic of choice?

The answer you have given above is nothing but WIFOM. "Nightfall as scum would do this, but he didn't do this, so he must not be scum."


Preview Edit: Actually, now that I look at it, Post 595 as a whole is *VERY* weird. He states multiple times that he agrees with CDB, but in his summary analysis, he gives a very, very neutral assessment of CDB's play. It's like Nightfall wanted to make CDB look good, but was afraid to definitively attach himself to CDB. And later, he brings up CDB again when he's talking about Fritz -- which indicates that he definitely has CDB on the mind.

Yeah, I'm like 95% sure that Nightfall/BM is scum now.



Now, to answer your question, MBL: Battle Mage's analysis just seems horribly disjointed. It's like he listed all of he actions in the game and then threw darts to see which ones he'd put down in his analysis. Some are just "X voted for Y." Others are "I see a possible distancing tactic." There's virtually no way to go back and check the analysis for accuracy or consistency without sitting down, reading the entire game, and trying to match up his statements with what happened where in the game. He also uses Burden of Proficiency as part of his evidence that I am scum (and, as far as I can tell, his point that I am "always the first to promote [my] brilliant scumcatching ability" is not only erroneous, but not relevant to this game in particular). He seems very eager to "remind" us that he "is pro-town," as indicated in his Burden of Proficiency argument, his comment on CTD's unvote, . In his comments towards me, he criticizes me for being confident that CDB was scum and not having a power-role, and questions why I didn't die. That discussion, I feel, was thoroughly exhausted, but he never acknowledges the fact that I made an explanation or that MBL and I had lengthy discussions on that whole situation.

BM's analysis contains a glaring logical fallacy, seems edited/catered to his end results, and he doesn't manage to address any of the points raised against Nightfall. When he replaced into the game and asked what points had been made against Nightfall, I told him to go look for and note those points. He claims that he did, but as far as I can tell, he only puts "X votes Nightfall" or "Y claims Nightfall is scum." He offers no insight as to his predecessors actions and no explanation for Nightfall's behavior until this most recent post, which reeks of nothing but WIFOM.




I find it very scary that BM states that "MGM is proven town" by Adele's investigation when we alll know that there is a Godfather in the game. Given MGM's reluctance to join a Nightfall (and now a BM) wagon, and BM's assertion that MGM is cleared as town, I would seriously consider going after MGM if BM were lynched as the other Mafia Goon today. Of course, I still see MBL as a possible third scumbag among this group, too, regardless of which mafia role BM would be lynched with.

If BM were lynched as town today, I think I'd be going after CES the hardest tomorrow. I don't really know who I'd peg as the second scum at that point... but I really don't think it's going to be an issue.

[Glork]

EBWODP:

He seems very eager to "remind" us that he "is pro-town," as indicated in his Burden of Proficiency argument, his comment on CTD's unvote,

and his comments before the analysis that it will "hopefully win the game for the town" (which I know isn't part of this analysis, but still fits the bill with the "Look, I am pro-town!" attitude that I find so scummy)

.

[Glork]

EBWOTP: To elaborate a bit on BM's terrible "analysis" of Nightfall's play... his comments on Nightfall's actions in his initial lengthy analysis are restricted to "doesn't make a lot of sense" (Re: Nightfall's "I thought Glork and Fritz are masons") and a "stupid comment" in response to Ether.

[Glork]

EBWOQP: By the way, the significance of BM's repeated "I am pro-town" comments are in the fact that he did the same thing as scum in another (currently-running) game before he was lynched as scum. I can't find the other game in which he was scum, but his self-declarations of being town and helping the town are consistent with what I saw in this other game in which BM was scum.

MGM:

Could you please explain exactly why you thought Battle Mage made "fine post by post analyses"? Obviously, I have come to a completely different conclusion. What upsides do you see to his lengthy analysis?

[Glork]

Arg. MBL, I would appreciate it if you could hold any further thoughts on BM until MGM has responded to my question. I don't want you to give him his answer (whether intentionally or accidentally).

I do see where you are coming from about those two points, MBL, but I do have a response to each of them. I simply disagree with BM's assessment of the first one, BM actually commits two scumtells here. He states that "the only way" I could be so confident is if I were scum, which is a *VERY* black-and-white proposition. He also states that if I weren't scum, and I picked out CDB accurately, I would have been killed. Not only is this another WIFOM scenario, but it also fails to address the (very likely, IMHO) possibility that

the scums, whether I am in them or not, found Fritz out as the Cop.

Then again, you're not one to think in Technicolor yourself, MBL. I made it

VERY CLEAR

not only in my lengthy analysis posts, but also in subsequent posts, that I was keeping my vote on Ether as pressure into voting, and that I would move it (to CDB) once she had posted. I even stated in Post 625 that I wanted to pressure Ether and lynch CDB. I had no intention of lynching Ether, and it was entirely a posturing maneuver. I made this very apparent, so I don't see why BM finds my Ethervote "amazing." Nevertheless, if I were to count one point in BM's favor, it would be the observation that you just brought up.

I honsestly get the feeling that MBL is intentionally playing both sides of the BM-coin so that he can decide whether he needs to bus BM or whether he can slide suspicion away from him at some point.
Still, his question at the end of his most recent post feels like a loaded question, which would point to MBLscum if BM were *town* definitely, and is at best difficult to judge if BM is scum.


MBL, I have a few questions for you, but I would like to wait until MGM has answered my questions to him, first.



In other news, I am still very frustrated with the lack of posts/contribution from Thesp and Cogito Ergo Sum.
--CES, I don't care if you're not that good at reading so-and-so. I want you to at least make an effort.
--Thesp, I just don't know what to do with you. I am

severely

disappointed in your play since the CDB lynch, and it's actually starting to make me wonder if you're not pro-town afterall. I think that, regardless of what happens today, you *will* come up as a potential lynch candidate before this game is over. You're not doing yourself any favors by sitting on your ass doing nothing.

[Glork]

You're jumping to conclusions. I'm not saying that I believe with any certainty that it is a loaded question. It just seems like one to me. And no, I'm not seeing what you're getting at. Surprise surprise. You're being cryptic again, and I have no idea what you're talking about again. And I have no idea if you're just spouting more crap like the whole "CDB did something naughty. You guys find it because you're lazier than I am" bit again.

[Glork]

Sweet. Now we just need CTD to drop the hammer or MBL to finish off his scumbuddy.

[Glork]

If that's what you think, you should just drop the hammer already. I am an impatient Glork.

Assorted thoughts:
MgM is making the same point I did about MBL "keeping his options open." Either MgM and I are just plain right, or MgM is setting up MBLtown to try to be the lynch tomrorow, once BM dies as scum. Either way, it's making me more confident that one of them is the remaining scumbaggo. (Yes, MBL, I'm stating as a fact that BM will be lynched as scum. Have fun with my certainty here. )
To Patrick, Re: Ether -- Based on the newbie game in which Ether was scum, I don't see early, heavy busing as being remotely indicative of her playstyle as scum. She didn't really commit *anywhere* right off the bat, but she kinda made astute observations about other players' behavior. Her sound logic appealed to me (a little too much, I must say)... but she didn't go after Ibby with *any* seriousness, and she didn't really overextend herself at all. Now granted, that was a Newbie setup, and Ether was much more of a novice player back then, but I still find it difficult to believe that she would have tried going after her scumbuddy all game. I understand your paranoia, but I seriously wouldn't worry too much about it this time around.
MBL notes that BM favors MgM heavily in his MGM/Thesp speculation, but that of the three early on CDB, he favors MBL *very* highly over Glork/Thesp. I find this to be a significant oversight (and likely intentional, though not necessarily indicative of MBLscum) in MBL's conclusion that BM's theoretical scumbuddy is somebody ignored and not on the CDB-wagon.

[Glork]

....and often more self-congratulatory than actually useful.

I disagree with this. But maybe that's because I'm one of the few people who knows what to look for when making an all-encompassing PBPA.

[Glork]

DOOOO IT!!

[Glork]

Meh. I was so disgusted with myself that I didn't even look at the thread overnight. A little surprised to see CTD bite the dust. I

think

that MBL is my top suspect, but at this point, I really have no idea what the hell I'm doing.

[Glork]

I think that CES and Thesp need to come out of the shadows and actually *do* something today.

Really, I think that we all should take some time in the next week or so and have each and every one of us read the

entire thread

. In my experience, endgames are seriously won or lost because of people's willingness to go back and reassess their opinions over the course of the game. Even as I tell CES and Thesp to do more, I have a feeling that Thesp is going to go "well damn, back to my vote on CES from yesterday," and he'll still provide minimul contribution/discussion. This concerns me. CES is really in the same boat, as yesterday he basically said "I think Glork is town, so I'm going to follow him around, okay?" I should have told him off then, but he seemed perfectly willing to go after my two top guys: Nightfall/BM and MBL.

So...

FoS: CES, Thesp

for their behavior throughout much of yesterday.

Minor FoS: MGM

for being hasty with his vote.

FoS: MBL

for seeming to play both sides of just about everybody yesterday. He projected mixed feelings on me and BM definitely, and I can't remember how his CES thoughts progressed, but I remember being somewhat displeased with that. MBL's behavior yesterday is something which I'm going to have to go back and re-examine.
I would like MBL to actually try to commit to something today. His vote seems to have been sitting around idly -- either nowhere, or on a player who probably wasn't going to be lynched. I remember using something similar to find him as scum when I followed Moses in Egypt after I died, and this does feel vaguely reminiscent.

Really, Patrick is the only player I consider even close to being town right now. The rest of you have all done something that has upset me.

Off the top of my head, my most likely pairings would be CES/MGM, MBL/CES, or MBL/Thesp. These will likely change as I re-read, though, so take this as a purely tentative thought process.

[Glork]

I think that Thesp and MBL, for the most part, have failed to question or comment on each other... which, to me, seems a little bit odd. I could be mistaken, and that's why I don't want to say anything firmly until I re-read the game. However, that was one of my gut thoughts, so I put it down.

[Glork]

Er. I don't claim to have followed Fritz-Cop.

Fritz followed me all day yesterday.

He asked me who the play was, then followed me onto Ether, then when I moved from Ether to CDB, he followed me there. The only reason I show up later in the end-of-day-VC is because I unvoted to allow some breathing space (I think for CDB's claim).

If anything, I would have been following Thesp's lead once I found out that Fritz had basically declared him not-Goon. But I had been slowly arriving at CDBscum over the course of my three huge analysis-posts, if you'd bother to go back and look.

[Glork]

Fair enough. I work all weekend, and on Monday/Tuesday (I think). I'll need a day off to devote to reading the thread, but I'm going to get some kind of re-read done as soon as possible, even if it means "skipping" the first 20-something pages by re-assessing my earlier analysis-posts.

[Glork]

Actually, CES, I'm leaning slightly towards you/MGM at this moment.

And you saying that you're going to follow me is bad because in the event that I'm wrong in my gameplay (which I was), then there's too little to hold you accountable for... except for the fact that you decided to take a backseat to actively scumhunting.

The fact of the matter is, CES, that my confidence in my ability is at an all time low right now. After LO2 and this game and a couple of other recent/ongoing games, I'm just very frustrated with myself and with mafia in general. I keep second-guessing myself to an unreasonable degree and when I finally settle on *something*, it always seems to be the *WRONG* thing.

Just because you're not trying to pin BM's mislynch on me does not mean that you're not likely to be scum. Your backseat attitude has been noted, and we both know that you're a perfectly capable scumhunter. Call me patronizing, but a very strong part of me feels that you would know better than to sit around and just follow someone else's lead in a situation like yesterday, no matter who that person was.

[Glork]

Also, what reasons do you have against a possible MBL/MGM pairing at this point in time?

[Glork]

Also, I agree with Thesp's request for the mod. This may be a grueling and tedious day, but I think that we are all active and well aware of the situation. And I don't know about the rest of you, but I sure as hell won't let *ANYBODY* sit around and let this game stall to the point where activity drops to deadline-necessary levels.

[Glork]

I know, CES. I'll get to this game on Wednesday. I'm going to have to devote a significant chunk of time to just looking at *this* game.

[Glork]

I'm not sure exactly which question you mean, CES. But if it's the Patrick one, his posts have just struck me as being properly inquisitive for a pro-town player. I'll get into more detail as I work on this re-read (which I am beginning now, but make no promises to finish today).

[Glork]

Okay, initial thoughts: I may be liking where this MGM/CES wagon goes. I've seen two interactions between MGM and CES. First, MGM votes CES a couple of times, but when push comes to shove, Post 116 may be telling:

The way the wagon built up, I'd be more inclined towards thinking Andrew is town. I'm still unsure as to what sort of benefit Andrew would be gaining by suggesting no lynch if he were scum. Can one of his attackers explain this to me please.

I don't like the speed of that CES wagon any better.

(In fact, I noted this in my initial re-read post:

116: MGM, quoting Patrick's "I don't like hte AndrewWagon speed," steps out and defends CES due to wagon-speed. Note that the second two voters -- AndrewS and SV -- were both pro-town. This reminds me

VERY

much of a scenario that happened in Lights Out 1. A very quick wagon formed against JSexton (Pro-town), and Glork (Pro-Town) noted it and jumped on one of the wagoners (Logicticus, Scum). Draygn_Mage (Scum) steps in and makes

this post

, effectively saying "But the wagon on Logic popped up, too!" That's disturbingly similar. Possible MGM-CES connection has been logged and noted (yes, despite MGM having an innocent investigation on him... we know there's a GF out there somewhere.)

)

MGM, could you explain what you meant in Post 173? I can't figure out if you're saying "The people who wagoned Glork/Andrew are scummier than Glork/Andrew" or if you're saying "The people who attacked Glork/Andrew's wagoners are scummier than those aforementioned wagoners."

I'm rescinding my "Patrick is town" stance for the time being.

Still reading; I'm now using my earlier analysis as a guide to the early portions of the game.... more in the next couple of hours, probably.

[Glork]

Oh, one more thing, CES. What made you think that this:[quote="CES, Post 884"]Of course I didn't really want a page 4 lynch or anything, but this town is responsible to the extent that I can just do whatever I want anyhow. [/url]was a good thing to say? You seem to have been riding the coattails of other players the entire game; here, you justify your ridiculous D1 behavior by saying "oh, but the town is responsible, so I can do whatever I want." If you're pro-town, I am

SERIOUSLY

going to smack you after this game. You are currently my top suspect, and it's for the way you have behaved throughout the game. I never want to see you play this way as town, and I never want you to attempt to rationalize or justify your terrible play by saying that the rest of the town can handle it.

[Glork]

Er... EBWOP:
Oh, one more thing, CES. What made you think that this:

Of course I didn't really want a page 4 lynch or anything, but this town is responsible to the extent that I can just do whatever I want anyhow.

was a good thing to say? You seem to have been riding the coattails of other players the entire game; here, you justify your ridiculous D1 behavior by saying "oh, but the town is responsible, so I can do whatever I want." If you're pro-town, I am SERIOUSLY going to smack you after this game. You are currently my top suspect, and it's for the way you have behaved throughout the game. I never want to see you play this way as town, and I never want you to attempt to rationalize or justify your terrible play by saying that the rest of the town can handle it.

[Glork]

MBL's 206 is a very distinct noncomment towards CDB. He actually makes some kind of legitimate assessment on almost everybody else. Possible MBL/CDB connection noted.

[Glork]

Okay, so what did you learn from Day One?

[Glork]

MGM never responded to IH's Post 242:

I don't get you, Zindaras.
You agree it's WIFOM, yet you don't think it's lynch-worthy.
I've seen a lot of scum, who attempted something just because scum wouldn't do that so they could use that argument. (I even did it myself over in DragonPhoenix Mafia on the GL)

If you're not going to vote someone for WIFOM, then do you have a better idea? The only reason I'm not voting yet is because I don't like fast lynches. But I'm all ready to pile up.

Unvote:Cogito Ergo Sum

First, a little bit of a fallacy here. "You agree it's wifom, you you don't think it's lynch-worth". No middle ground.

Not only that, but what he criticizes Zindy for, he's not doing himself. He doesn't like fast lynches, but he's ready to pile up.

-_-

I do. Because you actually voted no lynch when we were discussing how bad a no lynch would be for the town following Andrew's bandwagon. If you're pro-town, surely you have a better place to put your vote than on a no lynch you know won't happen. It is a waste of voting power.

I still don't get it. I'm pretty sure it was apparent that Glork wasn't being serious. In later posts you still don't seem to accept it. I thought you did, after this post though.

MGM, read the game - he was parodying me....

Oops, I guess I was the one not paying attention. I thought his post 117 was in response to my post 116. I didn't notice he responded to an SV quote.

apparently not, as in your next post though

Thesp, you've pretty much worded my feelings better than I could myself, but just in case someone wants to hear it.

AndrewS and Glork made a bad suggestion. Whether they meant it is irrelevant. Suggesting it is scummy, following through on it by making the vote is scummier.

Granted, you might get a few scum on your bandwagon, but not because they're opportunists, it will be because you called the wagon on yourself and it's logical to punish scummy actions or take action against anti-town play. Scum want to mix in, so if the town wagons you, they'll join (regardless of whether you're their buddy or a townie). It's not rocket science.

From some of his posts I see him trying to make Glork look scummy because he voted for a no lynch.

= / When no one else seemed to go along with it, it just kinda seemed to.... drop.

mm, I'm feeling pretty good with an Mgm lynch at the moment.

Also Mgm, I'm not sure WHAT the attack on the person link had to do with anything in one of your posts.

Could you please say something about your behavior regarding Andrew and Glork from D1?

[Glork]

Thesp

, your playstyle has finally gotten under my nerves. I know you do this "I'm going to call X scum and stick with it" thing..... but I'm having a hard time figuring out any of your thoughts from D1. Please look over your own D1 posts, look over the posts and interactions of the people whom you suspected, and explain your train of thought throughout the day.

[Glork]

Post 261 by MBL bothers me. He decides to vote SV for "avoiding doing anything significant" right after Thesp (town) calls for the end of the day, Fritz (town) agrees, and Glork (unknown to you folks, but I know I'm town) random-votes her. Adele (town) and Zindaras (town) jumped on the SV-wagon afterwards, though neither really provided reasons.

Interestingly enough, MBL is the only one who tries to justify the vote; and we know that everyone except possibly MBL and Glork were town -- and Glork's vote was entirely schtick anyway.

[Glork]

It's not what about I learned, Glrok, but if you must know, it definitely helped me form my opinions on you and Mgm. And knowing that 2 people are town = pretty darn useful.

What posts/behaviors helped you determine that MGM and Glork were pro-town during D1?

[Glork]

I will note that CES (alignment also unknown) jumps aboard after Adele/Zindie. I also pointed out during

The Analysis: Part II

that CES's behavior had reminded me of his attitude during Space Monkey (where he was scum).

[Glork]

286 by MBL looks like

fuuuuuel

for the fire.

[Glork]

Man, there's so much good shit from D1. You all should seriously read this stuff. There's even enough to implicate me if anybody wants to try hard enough.

Patrick:

What do you think of the D1 wagons against Spectrumvoid and the eventual lynch against IH?

MBL:

What do you think of the early wagon against AndrewS based on his suggestion of No-Lynch? What do you think of MGM's attitude towards Glork based on Glork's suggestion of No-Lynch?

[Glork]

Er, sorry. AndrewS was lynched. IH was vigged. I have no idea how I managed to get those mixed up. Fine then... an addendum to my Patrick question:

Patrick:

What do you think of the D1 wagons against Spectrumvoid, the eventual lynch against AndrewS, and the people who discussed wanting to have IH vigged?

[Glork]

FoS w/possible ItV: CES

You're being vague. I want specific posts/quotes with specific reasons. You obviously had to come to the decision somehow, and I want you to

explain what thought processes you went through as you played through Day One

.

[Glork]

And to clarify: The reason I am FoSing CES with possible intent to vote is because his responses have indicated to me that he likely doesn't know what he was thinking. This indicates to me that he really was just skating along, and/or that he didn't care what happened D1. This indicates to me that he very well may be one of our last scumbags.

[Glork]

Post 422 looks bad for both Thesp and CES (worse for Thesp, by a small margin -- MeMe's tell and whatnot). They are trying to goad Zindaras into wagoning AndrewS, when Zindaras flatly states that he thinks an AndrewS lynch would be a mislynch.

[Glork]

Vote: CES

[Glork]

Hypocrite.

[Glork]

CES:
Do you have some sort of aversion to making your analyses known to the rest of the town?
Do you expect anybody to accept you repeatedly saying "MGM and Glork are town" and "I am correct" and "I found Thesp as the Godfather" without substantiating those statements at all?
Do you feel that at least

trying

to explain your thoughts could

in any way

hurt

your chances of convincing anybody else to agree with you?

[Glork]

I'm not looking at just Space Monkey. I am looking at the fact that you have been generally useless

throughout this entire game

and that

is a type of behavior which is indicative of scum, no matter who the player or what the game

.

[Glork]

Ugh.

Unvote, FoS: CES

until everyone has had a chance to talk/respond.

You people piss me off.

[Glork]

Oh. Well yes, D1 was reminiscent of Space Monkey. But your play D1 is obviously not the only reason I suspect you.

[Glork]

Terrible misrepresentation, MBL. I did not treat CES as a "confirmed innocent" for two days. I tried to get him to talk near the end of D2 when CDB was going down, by asking him to give his thoughts on everybody. (Note that he never did that, even though I asked him multiple times to do so. He said he'd do it, but just never came through.) I voted him near the start of D3, and he/Zindaras were at the top of my list for quite some time. D4, he fell down on my list because you and Nightfall had risen to the top -- I really thought that you two were in league together, MBL.

Don't misrepresent me.

[Glork]

Seeing both CES and MGM go after MBL makes me cringe.

We are not going to no-lynch today.

Thank you, that is all... for now. I will undoubtedly have more questions for people later on. Stay tuned!!

[Glork]

Woo! Patrick/Glork are not scum together!

[Glork]

I believe he still claims that you are the Godfather, Thesp.

Also, note the lack of vote.

[Glork]

Augh. Please don't spam once you've affirmed the nonexistence of a scumpair. Every time I see a new post in this, I grow paranoid that somebody else has popped into the thread and caused a quicklynch. :/

[Glork]

In fact, if you two spent this time doing some original reading/analysis, rather than spamming, we just might be able to get somewhere tonight. I'm up for some serious discussion. You two get to work.

*cracks the whip*

[Glork]

To respond to MBL: I suppose it seems consistent enough to me. D1, he seemed to accept typical Glork-behavior, but he apparently decided he didn't like it as much on D2. At some point, he decided that I was probably pro-town and has maintained that attitude since then. Now that I think about it, I haven't really paid too much attention to Patrick's attitude towards and observations of me. I guess it's partly because he has found me pro-town, and because his play in general has seemed fairly reasonable. Of the other five players here, I definitely think that he's made the fewest "Red Flag" posts.

Question for everybody: Why do you think that Fritzler was killed on Night Three?

MBL:

Do you still feel that No Lynching is the play today? Why? What possible pros and cons do you see to lynching today?

[Glork]

Were *you* onto him, CES?

[Glork]

I'm not prepared to make a "Patrick is gg" leap of faith at this juncture.

Pussy.

[Glork]

No.

Hm. Are you sure?

Your suspicion fo CDB was based solely on his claim, and after not mentioning Fritz at all, he suddenly appeared on your "Pro-town" list after a substantial, 36-page re-read.

When and why did you decide that Fritz was town?

[Glork]

EBWODP: And why didn't you believe CDB's claim?

[Glork]

Anyhow, Glrok, if I were scum and I had found the cop, I wouldn't want to draw attention to that, would I? Silence would be a much smarter approach.

...and you were as silent as possible. I get the feeling that you *did* know that Fritz was the last power role and that if it came up, you could justify it. Instead, CDB went down without so much as a peep, and you just got to off Fritz.

And you know how I feel about your "he just looked pro-town" responses. They're not doing a damned thing for me.

[Glork]

Eh. I hate to call WIFOM on this, but that's basically what it boils down to. Thesp admitted to suspecting that Fritz was the cop, I don't see you asserting that he's more likely to be pro-town because of it.MBL and Patrick both admitted to looking for the cop, and I proclaimed that I had thought Fritzler was the cop.

By this logic, if Fritz were killed because he were the cop, it would have been by MGM. Yet you're still claiming that Thesp is the Godfather, and that MGM is definitely pro-town. You're being disgustingly inconsistent here. So yes, there is either some outright denial or some serious WIFOM going on somewhere. That or MGM found out Fritz, informed his buddy, and they killed him overnight.



If you'd just said, "I found Fritz to be a likely cop, and that's why I decided that CDB's claim meant he was bogus" right from the start of all of this, I'd probably be less suspicious of you. Because before I even asked the "why was Fritz killed N3" question, I had read up on every player, and I felt that you had figured him out. So..... did you?

[Glork]

And as MBL's post just pointed out, MGM is doing something very similar. He is actively using "looking for the cop" as a point against MBL, when that same point can be made against Thesp, Glork, or Patrick (and allegedly CES).


I think I'm about ready to lynch CES today.

[Glork]

1) he was a cop with a guilty on CDB, 2) he was disgracefully reckless scum sacrificing himself to get CDB-town lynched, or 3) he was sloppily busing his scumpartner CDB. (1) seemed the most Glork-like.

You really give me too little credit. As I explained, it was 4) he was trying to draw fire from Fritzler, whom he had discovered as the real cop. (He just didn't do a good enough job, apparently.)

[Glork]

Very beginning of D3, I ask Fritz what he thought about possibly lynching Thesp. He said something like "I wouldnt' want to lynch Thesp because you guys are stupid." It seemed quite obvious to me at that time.

[Glork]

The attention to "strangeness" came after CDB's post, I think, because he was the last one to weigh in, and his suspicions were right in that muck of five players + me. I just found it... odd... that these players were going after each other so hard, and that none of them held much substantial suspicion elsewhere. I think I mentioned that it might be indicative of scum sitting back and letting us tear each other apart.

CES was not on my list because I was taking into account his usual playstyle. It didn't seem particularly out-of-the-ordinary at the time. I don't think I'm going to let him have such a long leash in the future. If I see CES be completely useless in future D1s, I might start calling him on it, playstyle be damned.

The mason-comment was simple. If there happened to be mason-pair, then it would mean that Adele was necessarily scum (only 3 non-vanilla pro-town roles). I was hoping that, if there *WAS* a mason-pair, exactly *ONE* of them would counterclaim, and Adele would be lynched as scum. I was wary of her claim, especially considering she claimed to have an innocent on the other player I suspected heavily at the time. But in the meantime, the right play was to move elsewhere and to see what happened to Adele over the next day or so.

The comment about Adele/MGM checking out would be in the event that the scums killed Adele and then MGM -- I figured, unless MGM was the Godfather or the other power role got outed (yes... the level of foreshadowing is frightening), then MGM would be a very likely kill target.

Your conclusion about Patrick dropping on my suspicion list is accurate. I had tied Patrick, Adele, and MGM as potential scumbags. Adele claiming cop with an innocent on MGM basically nixed that entire theory if Adele was just going to get killed as a cop overnight.

[Glork]

Why include yourself in the list of possible scum?

Because I was looking at numbers and a bandwagon, and I was squarely in that group of players whom I would expect to find scum from. I do this rather often.

Why interesting, in light of the fact that you think scum are more likely to suck up to town than scum?

I really don't remember why I called this interesting. Maybe it's because CDB was trying to downplay the scumminess of lurking by calling other lurkers pro-town. I really, really can't recall at this point.

Glork, why were you 100% sure about CDB being scum?

Well... I wasn't actually

100%

sure. But after deciding FritzCop and ThespTown, and having looked critically at CDB's posts and finding a lot that I didn't like, I decided that he was very likely scum. My goal was to make it look like I was a cop who was overjustifying a "case" against somebody.

I wanted to draw a nightkill so that Fritz might be able to get at least one more night of hopefully-meaningful results.

It allegedly worked on you. The scums killed Fritzler for some reason. In that respect, I wish that I'd not played up Fritz's pro-town-ness so much. I actually worry that I might have given him away by making my stances towards him, Thesp, and CDB so firm.

[Glork]

Non-voters: If you had to put all your eggs in one basket right now and vote, who'd get the chop?

CES

Everyone: Who are you least willing to lynch right now?

Probably Patrick.

Like I said earlier today, basic statistics. Both Channelscum and Channelblocker would make that claim. 3 scum left, 1/3rd of a Blocker => 90% of the time he's scum.

I think that your use of statistics is horribly flawed. The odds of CDB being a roleblocker are no more larger or smaller than the odds of any specific player having any specific role. It may be true that "CDB Roleblocker" was highly unlikely, but it is no more or less likely than, say, "Glork Vig."

Secondly, I think you're making a flawed assumption in that scums would necessarily claim Roleblocker. I could see RB, Cop, or Deputy, easily; and I could possibly see Vigilante (though I admit that I would have been rather skeptical of that one).

[Glork]

Argument against: Scums will decide who is most suspected and who is most trusted; they will very likely kill one of the two most trusted, and/or they will kill to cater the "most suspected" results to their liking.

It basically creates a huge WIFOM situation if we reach a 4-player endgame, or if we decide to No-Lynch.

[Glork]

The pont is, Mgm, if you think that forcing us to give thoughts on players we trust or don't trust has more pros than cons, then you should be willing to share your thoughts on anyone/everyone, too. I don't believe that you have answered your own questions yet. I think you're at least as guilty of using double-standards as anybody else.

[Glork]

MBL... I know this is going to sound completely backwards to you, but

certainty is not something that I think I have *EVER* used as leverage when scum

. It is completely inconsistent with my behavior as scum, but it *IS* consistent with my behavior as town (LO2, Graduation, Covert Ops).


Regarding your questions:
A) I don't know if Thesp's behavior is indicative of a double-busing. I would have to read over Thesp's posts in greater detail. I will do that in the next couple of days.
B) Yes. He started off claiming with certainty that you are scum, and he appeared to be come

more

certain.
C) I'm currently trying not to WIFOM myself out of the CES-MGM scumpair that I projected earlier. I think all of the evidence in the thread supports it, but it seems almost *too* obvious. In a way, I think that we should just be taking this day-by-day. Scumpair speculation is one of the things that, I think, caused the town to lose Space Monkey. If they'd just lynched either of the two scummiest individuals (Glork, Nightson/VitR), the game would have been a victory for the dirty Gorillas. Similarly, disbelief of advanced busing technicques (and crappy play by a pro-town player) caused the scums to win Lights Out 2. I don't want that to happen again here.

[Glork]

Nope, I don't have a problem with that.

Are you *trying* to make me rip my hair out of my head?

And no, I didn't catch that because I haven't looked at Thesp's posts thoroughly/in isolation. I just don't think he's scum.

[Glork]

Re: MBL's question A) to me. It's possible. I don't find it especially likely, but unless CES gets lynched as the Godfather, I wouldn't consider Thesp necessarily cleared if it comes down to a 4p endgame tomorrow.


Meh. I'm about ready to put my chips into the pot. I still think CES is probably scum.

[Glork]

I think CES has climbed the ladder of suspiciousness

Can you be more specific? When did he climb it? How high has he climbed it? What did he do? This could mean almost anything.

Is there anything else you want me to broadcast to the scum?

I still don't understand how you can be okay with you asking everyone's hypothetical lynch target and everyone's most trusted player, then getting all huffy when somebody asks you to give your opinions on CES.

That don't make no sense to me.

[Glork]

I arrived at my conclusion through a combination of all of the processes except "giving up" to some extent. CES's play has not looked good to me. Though recklessness is his MO, I feel that he has taken it overboard. Even today, in endgame, I've tried to get CES to give some kind of actual justification for *ANY* of the stances he has taken. He refuses to do so, saying that he has just gotten "vague feelings." He has taken an approach of following others, riding people's coattails, and acting as though because he's being open about his uninspired play, it will grant him some kind of protection from my repeated inquiries.

I do not think that Thesp is scum. I do not think that Patrick is scum. Thus, I think that CES's scumbuddy is either Mgm or MBL. I currently am undecided as to which one I find more likely, though I will admit that I am leaning slightly towards CES/Mgm in spite of the innocent result which Adele got on him.

If you've been paying attention, MBL, you would have seen that I *have* been grilling CES. Mgm is not where I would like to lynch today, simply because if CES happens to be the Godfather, Mgm would necessarily be pro-town. Like I said, I've tried to get CES to elaborate on all of his behavior -- including his suspicion of you -- yet he is at a total loss for any actual solid reason for thinking that you are scum. I finally decided that CES's stubbornness is not because he's bad at articulating a case against somebody, but

because he doesn't actually have a legitimate case against you.

He's blowing steam and hoping it'll obscure our vision. (Note that this does not mean he couldn't be busing you -- just that his method of play is very dubious to me.)

[Glork]

Since you've said you're not giving up, I'm left wondering why you're not asking them these critical questions.

Read what I had said already. I am flat-out accusing CES of not having a legitimate case against you. He doesn't. If he can't or won't present a case, I will assume that he does not have one. He hasn't explained any of his behavior. I have no compelling reason to believe that he has any shred of logic or evidence behind any of his actions.

If CES really thinks that you are scum and wants you to be lynched today, he will make an attempt to convince the rest of us that you are scum, and that you are the lynch for today.

Which I suppose meets the minimum requirements for curiosity, though it's not really asking him why he's voting for me.Which I suppose meets the minimum requirements for curiosity, though it's not really asking him why he's voting for me.

Believe it or not, I

intentionally

left "MBL is scum" off of that list of assertions because I wanted to see if CES would bring it up on his own when he replied to me, or whether I'd have to beat him over the head again. Of course, his reply was just a blanket statement along the lines of "I just have general vauge feelings"... which gave me enough information anyway.

Pro-town players -- hell,

good players in general

-- don't just go "I feel this way" and leave it at that. The burden of proof is on CES to prove to (or otherwise convince) me that you are scum. He knows that I want him to explain himself. He has declined or sidestepped repeatedly.

I think that this, in and of itself, speaks volumes about CES's play and his motives.

[Glork]

Are you telling me you want those shared?

*shrug*

Anybody with two eyes, half a brain, and a fifth grade reading level knows my list of suspicions. Take that as you will.

[Glork]

I think I am, too. I'm just waiting to see if anybody else has any outstanding questions, issues, or debates.

[Glork]

Feh.

Vote: Cogito Ergo Sum

Let's see if we're totally boned or not.

[Glork]

Unvote, FoS: MBL

[Glork]

Because an unexplained vote, coming from you, seems

VERY

out-of-place to me. It's enough to make me wonder if you're part of a possible quicklynch pair.

[Glork]

....why did you unvote after I unvoted?

[Glork]

I sitll don't understand why you wouldn't say anything

at all

to accompany your vote.

[Glork]

Meh. Either way, I s'pose the others have something to observe and react to. I'm going to bed now... too tired to think properly, and I have to be at work in five hours.

[Glork]

Thing is, I could see MBL/Mgm as being possible still. That isolated post, that lonely vote scared the living hell out of me. I don't like it, and now I'm trying to figure out what on earth is going on.

[Glork]

Thesp, could you refresh my memory and give (or repost) your thoughts on everyone who is not Cogito Ergo Sum?

[Glork]

MBL, what conclusions (if any) have you come to regarding why "GlorkScum" would have unvoted CES after you put Vote #3 on him.
Are you ready and willing to lynch CES still? If so, why have you not put your vote back on him?

[Glork]

I want MBL and Thesp to respond to my most recent posts.

[Glork]

I expected you to come to some firm conclusion. My thoughts had been known all along, but other than your prospective percentage-post, you hadn't really come to a definite conclusion as to which scumpair(s) you actually thought were most likely

OVERALL

.

"Here goes" is the kind of vote somebody puts on after they've got nothing else to say, and their opinion has already been firmly presented. Me.

"Here goes" is not something I would have liked coming from somebody whose last substantial post still presented numerous possibilities and arrived at "CES or Glork, but more comfortable with CES" mostly via process of elimination. If you had said simply "here goes nothing" and voted CES, I think that I would have reacted the exact same way.




The reason I have not voted is because I am still put off by your behavior, and I am now worried for the possibility that CES is not scum and that you are scum with MGM, Thesp, or Patrick. I am keeping CES out of quicklynch range because I found your vote very alarming. I thought that I had made this clear by now.

[Glork]

Basically, yeah. That's exactly what I'm saying. If you're scum, you fucked up really badly, because you turned a possible insta-win into a very unsure thing.



I'm still trying to decide if you screwed up, or if CES is scum. (Incidentally, I haven't ruled out CES/MBL, but I am currently operating as if that pairing is impossible -- because it could only serve to force me to act more hastily.)

[Glork]

No, Thesp, that covers it well enough. That's the general sentiment I had gotten from glancing at your posts, but I wanted you to spell it out more explicitly.

I had a moment in scumchat this evening, and I don't know if it's revealing or more muddling. In a 5-player LyLo, I voted or Shea, and Korejora immediately put a second vote on him. I unvoted, fearing quicklynch, but she claimed to be a cop with a guilty on him. Ultimately, I decided that she was legit, but she was lynched anyway and we (the town) lost.

It seemed disturbingly applicable to this game. I still don't *like* MBL's vote -- if Patrick or MgM had been up and had been scum with MBL, the game could have ended right there. I hadn't checked the thread, because I'd been conversing with Eep on AIM, but I still fear that MBL's vote was designed to allow a scumbuddy to drop a quicklynch. It came a full 3.5 hours after my vote, at a time when I should have already gone to sleep (again, delayed only because of AIM conversating)... which would have left little (if any) chance of stopping a possible quicklynch.


I think that I'm going to hold my vote until MBL has come to a firm decision and placed his vote. I know this'll raise some eyebrows (particularly coming from MBL himself), but I want to be one of the ones making a possible game-ending decision.

[Glork]

Well, Patrick. Since you seem to trust me, and I think I trust you, I figure we should be working together to figure this out... given that we're controlling the lynch.

Is there anything else you wanted to hear from the other players? Any specific questions, general thoughts/comments?

I personally am still split almost 50/50... I'd say I'm leaning about 55% towards voting CES. I really think that, at this point, we might just have to suck it up and come to a decision. I want to re-read parts of the game again (especially around the CDB lynch) before making such a decision, but I don't know if that's going to be possible in the next couple of days.

[Glork]

So... I've read over the before, during, and after of the CDB lynch, and both CES and MBL seemed to backdoor their ways onto it. MBL was apparently trying a little strategery, what with the whole "I thought Glork was crumbing cop" thing. I think that normally, I'd have a big issue with that kind of argument. However, since it's the exact effect that I intended, I wouldn't see it as being being nearly as big a deal, assuming I could trust MBL's claimed thought process.



I still think CES is scum.... I think.

[Glork]

I answered that already. I wasn't "so paranoid" about it until I saw you smack that vote down. Pay attention, MBL.

[Glork]

Actually, yeah, I did, too.


I think it's about time to throw down.

[Glork]

Things have been hectic (interview tomorrow), and I've not had time to read over MGM's analysis at all. Yes, I'm stalling, but only because I don't want to come to a decision if I've not had time to sit and actually think about this game specifically without any distractions.

[Glork]

I've been staring at this thread trying to decide if there's any point to me putting this off. I has asked Stoof for a prod on CES maybe 13 hours ago, but if he's scum, I don't see how he would give us anything to work with. And if he's town, well then it's game over if I hammer.

I want to hear which possible one or two scumpairs Thesp and Mgm each find most likely to be the case. I will place my vote somewhere within 24 hours of recieving those responses.




And, obvously, CEStown now implies Glorktown.

[Glork]

If you really think that MBL was the tipping point against CDB, I'd suggest that you go back and re-read that lynch. Thesp, Fritz, and I formed the voting bloc against CDB. The day-end vote count reflects me voting "after" MBL only because I removed my vote so that I could finish my lengthy analysis from Day Three (as indicated here).

In fact...Mgm, I would suggest that you read that entire page, as well as the preceeding and following pages. What do you think of MBL's attempt to link me to CDB by claiming that my unvote was because Lynch-1 was "too close for comfort"?

I will also point out that the reason Thesp was killed is probably not only because he was confirmed innocent, but because like Patrick, he's been so sure that I'm town that MBL wouldn't have stood a chance of surviving today. MBL had to kill Thesp because he figured you'd fall in line with him, and he'd have to convince Patrick to turn on me.

Finally, I maintain that Fritz's complete and utter willingness to follow me on Day Three (first to Ether, and then to...

CHANNEL DELIBIRD

) is a very, very, VERY storng sign that

HE INVSTIGATED ME ON NIGHT TWO

.



I'll respond more later today or possibly tomorrow. I've got an interview to prepare for.

[Glork]

If I were the MBL and he was the final scumbucket, I would've killed me for revenge (for lynching CES).

I disagree entirely. No offense to you, but Thesp's behavior has been much more accurate as far as scumhunting goes. He zeroed in on CDB during Day One and didn't relent until CDB was dead. He also homed in on CES in a similar fashion and other than the Nightfall/BM lynch, pushed hard for a CES lynch the entire time. His instincts have just been much better, and I think that the last scumbag -- whomever that might have been -- recognized this. From MBLscum's perspective, you would probably be much easier to convince to switch to me than Thesp.



I also still disagree with your "who was the driving force behind CDB's lynch." If I had not moved to CDB and taken Fritz with me, the game situation would have been "oh look, Thesp is still clinging to a CDB-lynch while everyone else is looking everywhere else." With Glork moving to CDB and taking Fritz with him, there was suddenly this bloc of three voters. That forced other players to actually take a long, hard look at CDB's behavior, and I think that it provoked MBL to toss his lurker scumbuddy under the bus.

The fact that Glork/MBL/Patrick (and CES) were on CDB's lynch tells us one obvious thing: CDB was useless and was an easy bus by the end of the day. Unless you believe that I decided to bus him out of

nowhere

instead of

JUST SHUTTING UP, POINTING ELSEWHERE, AND KILLING FRITZ OVERNIGHT

, then there's very little reason to believe that I'm scum based on my behavior towards CDB.

[Glork]

My grievance, Mgm, is that you asserted that MBL's "tipping the scales" is a pro-town sign. I argue that I "tipped the scales" to the point where busing him became an easy decision. I suppose I just don't see how you're considering MBL's play a pro-town sign when I think that I'm the one who actually made a difference in determining the Day Three lynch.

[Glork]

Alright, a handful of thoughts regarding MBL.

First, this post interests me. In spite of the fact that MBL declined to hammer Thesp, and Fritz likely ended up with an N1 investigation on Thesp, MBL chooses to run a lengthy analysis on Thesp in which he posits possible scumpairings of Thesp/CDB, Thesp/Glork, posits that Thesp may have been hunting for an investigation (while in the meantime CES's antics were very likely looking to draw investigation).

He ultimately decides that he thinks Thesp is pro-town, yet he intentionally leaves himself every out to go after Thesp later. What is further troubling is that while he feels that Thesp has been scummy, his two stated reasons for believing Thesp to be pro-town (Thesp's attack on CDB seeming genuine; Fritz innocent result on Thesp)

could not have been reasons for not-hammering-Thesp until after the lynch and nightkill

. Based on the vast majority of MBL's analysis of Thesp, he should have had *EVERY* reason to lay down the hammer and justify it later on.

MBL: Why, exactly, did you choose not to hammer Thesp at the end of Day Two?

MBL's defense of "I'm more likely to be innocent because I was off of townie wagons/lynches like Andrew and Adele" is interesting. I decided to compare his behavior in the early stages of this game with his behavior in NY54, one of Kelly's open-setup games, in which MBL was a member of the Mafia. I present to you the Day-End Vote Counts of Days 1-3:

Final Day 1 Vote Count

12 - Twomz (Glork, ChannelDelibird, Mastermind of Sin, ShadowLurker, Thoth, three word name, armlx, Vaughn, klebian, BabyJesus, Yosarian2, Rosso Carne)
4 - ChannelDelibird (Thok, Machiavellian-Mafia, vikingfan, Cogito Ergo Sum)
3 - three word name (ubertimmy, HezLucky, kirbyphreak)
1 - Mastermind of Sin (Twomz)
1 - Yosarian2 (MrBuddyLee)

not voting: creampuffeater

With 22 alive it is 12 to lynch!


And so was Twomz lynched. Sadly, for him and all Egypt to boot, he was a Townie.

Twomz - Townie - Lynched day 1

Final Day 2 Vote Count

10 - Vaughn (Machiavellian-Mafia, armlx, kirbyphreak, Rosso Carne, ShadowLurker, vikingfan, MrBuddyLee, ChannelDelibird, Cogito Ergo Sum, BabyJesus)
2 - klebian (Yosarian2, Thoth)
1 - vikingfan (HezLucky)

not voting: Thok, klebian, ubertimmy, creampuffeater, Vaughn

With 18 alive it is 10 to lynch!



And behold, Vaughn is strung up. A can of spray paint and some fireworks fall from his cloaks. This intruder cannot be of our time, but from the future!

Vaughn - Mafia - Lynched day 2

Final Day 3 Vote Count

8 - ChannelDelibird (Machiavellian-Mafia, ubertimmy, Thok, kirbyphreak, vikingfan, Cogito Ergo Sum, ShadowLurker, armlx)
1 - armlx (HezLucky)
1 - Cogito Ergo Sum (Yosarian2)
1 - creampuffeater (ChannelDelibird)

not voting: MrBuddyLee, Rosso Carne, creampuffeater

With 14 alive it's 8 to lynch!


You string up your good buddy ChannelDelibird. Sadly it is for naught.

ChannelDelibird - Townie - Lynched day 3

Note that on the two townie lynches, MBL was either doing his own thing or not voting at all. Compare to the early end-of-days of this game -- pretty much the exact same behavior. One manner in which I believe MBLscum tries to keep suspicion off of him is by simply staying away from the chic mislynch of the day.

Now, a very, *VERY* interesting note about the Day Two lynch on his scumbuddy Vaughn. I encourage both Patrick and MGM to read starting from Kelly's 19th Vote Count to the end-of-day vote count (which is not even 2 pages' worth of reading). Klebian (a Werewolf in the game) is the leading wagon, but when Vaughn's play gets him in trouble, MBL's jump onto Vaughn occurs without any real reasoning, after it becomes apparent that the leading lynch/wagon will likely be Vaughn instead of Klebian. I'd like you to compare this to the happenings against CDB in *this* game, where all MBL said of CDB was that he was wary of the wagon, until he realized that CDB was screwed and then decided to try to take a leading role in getting CDB lynched.

I also remember MBL's behavior being very similar in Himalayan -- he consistently went after CES while most of the mislynches occurred without him actively supporting them. I think that's about how he managed to win that game.

I think that while MBL is trying to use "I stayed away from the bad lynches" as a defense, it serves to provide no such comfort, as

MBL's tendency as scum is to shy away from a big mislynch, and to join a wagon on scum as soon as possible once the scales have been tipped.

Regarding your question about how I thought Zindaras was scum: See this post. It contains links and quotes from the two posts in which I explain myself. If you have further specific questions, ask away. But don't waste my time asking questions which I have already answered for you.

Regarding the Thespkill: In the end, note that I decided that Thesp was likely killed simply because he's a good scumfinder. He pushed CDB until CDB died. Then he pushed CES until CES died, minus his Nightfall/BM vote after my mistaken "misdirection" tell. That is *not* to be one of my chief points against MBL.

[Glork]

Mgm:

your assessment of "why MBL wouldn't keep Mgm alive" really is nothing more than WIFOM, at best. It is more likely a flawed observation.

I encourage you to look at Thesp's posts. You'll find that Thesp definitely thought that I was pro-town, and he said that Patrick was reasonble, too. Look at this post (Thesp's last posted thoughts on everyone). You and MBL are

CLEARLY

his top suspects over Glork/Patrick. And given that CES died as the Godfather, that leaves only MBL as his top suspect.

Now, given how stubborn Thesp has been in his attacks and given that Thesp is a very renowned scumhunter

who has proven his ability in this game by nailing both CDB and CES before anybody else did

, I want to know exactly why you think MBLscum would have chosen to kill you over Thesp.


Responding to MBL and Patrick in just a minute...

[Glork]

My computer crashed as I was writing my responses to MBL and Patrick. I am going to try to recreate them as best as possible in a moment. First, a quick response to Mgm:

Seeing as Thesp was wrong about his top two suspects, I'm really not confident enough to trust him blindly and go with his third choice when the fourth could be equally valid.

....what? I'm confused. His top suspects were CES, MBL, and Mgm. Before that, his top suspect was CDB. WHen was he wrong about his top two suspects?

Anyway, you seem to have missed my point. Just like you, MBL would have been Thesp's top suspect going into today. Yet while Thesp has proven to be both accurate in his suspicions and stubborn in sticking with his suspicions, you claim that MBLscum would almost certainly have killed you instead of Thesp.
I don't understand this one bit.

[Glork]

Right now, your claim to fame is that you spotted Fritz-cop, followed him valiantly onto the CDB-wagon and then Fritz died overnight.

Not only is this a factual misstatement, but it's a strategic misrepresentation, too.

1) I did not follow Fritz anywhere. He followed me not only regarding Ether, but then onto CDB. Get your facts straight.
2) My defense is not that I found him as cop and then he died.
---2a) Firstly, I claim that Fritz very likely had an investigation result on me. I have already shown that FritzCop has a tendency to hint-drop his innocent results, as shown by his behavior in KM1 and Speedy's NY Game. He very clearly indicated that he had an innocent on Thesp, and as Patrick said, he even made it a point to tell me that he was willing to follow Thesp specifically, and not me. Then, on the *VERY NEXT DAY*, he asked me who the play was and followed me in attacking Ether (with ad hom nonetheless) and then followed me onto CDB, thus tipping the scales against CDB. Given these facts, do you think that Fritz chose not to hint-drop on Day Three at all (and if so, why)? Do you think that Fritz hint-dropped a result elsewhere (if so, on whom, and in what post(s))?
---2b) I assert that, if I'd found Fritz as cop, I would have said nothing, stuck with my Zindaras/Ether suspicions, and just killed Fritz overnight. I have backed this up already by showing that

in Speedy's NY Game, I correctly pegged Fritz as a cop based on similar hint-drops, said nothing of this discovery, and talked my scumgroup into killing Fritz that very night.

Do not parlay my self-defense into something as ridiculous as "HAY GUYZ I FOUND THE COP AND THEN HE DIED!"

Right now, your claim to fame is that you spotted Fritz-cop, followed him valiantly onto the CDB-wagon and then Fritz died overnight.

I don't know what your intent was with this obvservation, but linking players I find scummy to others is just something I tend to do.... a lot. And I get accused of it being scummy... a lot. But it tends to work for me.... a lot. Examples I can think of are when I pegged DGB in CoOps and later in the day accused MoS of being her Godfather (which, incidentally, he *was*). I also found mith scummy in SIHM Mafia and linked him to others in that game (though I was wrong about mith). In LO1, I was ready and willing to push a secondary lynch on draygn_mage for his defense of Logicticus (who I got lynched earlier that day, though his alignment had not been revealed yet). In Fortify's Mini 358, I was linking players to Sprontalic, whom I pegged as scum on Day One. Also in SIHM, I was calling StD and VisMaior scumbuddies before either of them were lynched, because I pegged VM as scum and correctly suspected that StD was his scumbuddy. I'm sure there are more examples of me doing this, but I can't think of anything else off the top of my head. Suffice to say, linking players to people I suspect is one of the fairly common scumhunting methods I use.

Glork, I thought you were a cop. I was trying to associate you and CDB to obfuscate that fact with that post... you're trolling with pretty wide nets at this point.

Correction: You

claim

to have thought I was a cop.
In contrast, I think that A) you wanted to link me to CDB; and/or B) wanted to foist enough suspicion onto me to make a Fritzkill more reasonable/believable in general.

Glork is also attacking CES on and off throughout the game. Some small suspicions of CES day 2 but also a "reasonably protown" assessment. Any chance you could articulate how CES's play looked protown?

I can't recall exactly, but my best guess is that I was linking CES's play in this game to his play in Cultural Revolution Mafia and Lights Out 2. I know for a fact that I was keen on Adele/Mgm, and that CES would not have fit in as a third scumbag in such a group... so that may have led to a "reasonably protown" assessment.

[Glork]

Aren't you accusing Mgm of WIFOM and then engaging in some yourself in the very next paragraph here?

No, I'm pointing out that even if we reject the WIFOMness of Mgm's assessment, you would also have had very compelling reason to kill Thesp. Hence, his "WIFOM or flawed observation."

Also, you are the only suspect alive who tried to kill this "very reknowned scumhunter" end of D2. I just reread your PBPAs, and you found Thesp "likely protown" by post 509 and very likely protown by post 589. But in the thread, you found him scummish around 509-589 and then you voted to lynch him in post 821. But you left some room for error, and even took a shot at setting up next lynches if Thesp turned up innocent:

If Thesp is pro-town, Adele and MGM are

so

dying next.

Guys, I don't think Thesp is the play.

Unvote, Vote: Thesp

So what you're trying to have us believe here is that you are town who didn't read very carefully D1/D2? Because as I read your three PBPAs from D3, it looks like you found Thesp scummy through two of them, then realized Fritz was the cop and went back and revised your attitude in your third post to make it look like you changed your mind on Thesp's scumminess based on Thesp's words when that's actually not what you did at all.

Another misrepresentation. I moved to the Thespwagon at day's end to secure a lynch, because I felt that the information would be good for the town. No-Lynching on Day Two is a

terrible

thing, because D1/D2 behavior is oftentimes the most important behavior in teh game. We need as much information as we can get early on, so that's why I moved to Thesp despite having top suspects elsewhere.

And yes, I tried to make it look like I agreed with Thesp's posts more in D3 for one simple reason. I needed some justification for changing my mind on Thesp so that "Glork realized Fritz was the cop and had an innocent on Thesp" would not become the obvious explanation of my switch on Thesp.
(Of course, this paragraph creates the interesting scenario where, as I just discredited MBL's "I thought Glork was cop and was trying to cover his ass by calling him scummy" post, I am now saying "I thought Fritz was the cop and was trying to cover his ass by going out of my way to justify finding evidence of protown Thesp.")

[Glork]

I thought I had clarified this, MBL, but apparently I did not: My meta towards you relates to early-game situations. That is why I looked at your behavior towards SV/Andrew, Thesp, then CDB (Days 1-3) in this game, and your behavior Days 1-3 in Moses in Egypt. Himalayan is hard to compare because you replaced into that game during D3 or D4, and "Flay (not on)" was in a late-game situation. Your defense of your pro-town habits is nothing more than a single counterexample and an assertion that this game fits with that counterexample.

Nevertheless, if you insist that I provide another example where you played "avoid the play of the day" in the early game as scum, look at Lynches 1-3 of Jelly Mafia:
Day One (mislynch, avoided)
Day Two (mislynch, avoided)
Day Three (strategic no lynch, avoided)

Funny thing is, I reacted exactly as Glork should have expected town to react to his actions

Misrepresentation. That's how I was

hoping that scum

would react, not how I "expected town" to react. The fact that nobody else believed I was the cop indicates that my plan was nothing more than a dismal failure. It is not by any means an indication that you are protown.

[Glork]

By the way, MBL: I don't know if you remember why I pegged you post-mortem in Moses in Egypt, but I said that I saw your play as being similar to how you behaved in Jelly. Funny how this meta-observation is about to work yet again. I *do* have a legitimate, well-defined, and accurate meta against you. Unfortunately, nobody is going to realize this until after the game is over. (And, of course, I'm going to have to take that meta with a grain of salt, because you will undoubtedly make an effort to change your play now that you realize you've been cracked.)

[Glork]

So Glork, let me get this straight:

In your Post Subject: 131 ("view posts by Glork") you made a PBPA analysis, then when you got halfway through (post 576) you realized Fritz was the cop, so you went back through and edited your PBPA before posting it so that you would appear to be trusting Thesp and thus providing cover for your FOS of CDB.

...no. Not at all. You could not possibly be more wrong.

This post,

which occurred between Part II and Part III of mylengthy analysis

, is what made me realize that Fritz was the cop. I remembered his following of Thesp on D2 and the conversation he had with me. I did all of Part III operating under the conclusion that Fritz was very likely the cop.

Also, you're telling me that rereading the following posts convinced you that Fritz was the cop, but somehow you

missed

that the first time you read Fritz's response back in February?

thesp, whose the play?

You didn't ask me, Fritz?

You didn't ask me, Fritz?

:no:

if that was a smilie, he'd be shaking his head and have a sad lookon his face

I'm thinking that if you know Fritz as well as you claim to, you'd have known

immediately

upon reading that exchange back in February that Fritz was the cop with an innocent on Thesp, and were prepared to kill him that night until Adele gave you a 2nd cop to lynch!

I disagree, and I have explained why above. I had turned a blind eye towards Fritz for most of the game, but when he flat-out called everyone stupid for suspecting Thesp, I had a "DURR, OBVOBV" moment. I think most of the rest of the town had the same after Fritz turned up Cop and they went looking for hints of his.

[Glork]

Also, more Glork bullpuckey:

Another misrepresentation. I moved to the Thespwagon at day's end to secure a lynch, because I felt that the information would be good for the town. No-Lynching on Day Two is a

terrible

thing, because D1/D2 behavior is oftentimes the most important behavior in teh game. We need as much information as we can get early on, so

that's why I moved to Thesp despite having top suspects elsewhere

.

No, you found Thesp scummy that day:

I'm slightly more confident in MGM/Adele than I am in Thesp right now.

I could probably be persuaded to move to Thesp if I don't get my way, though.

You pushed hard on Adele/Mgm and found Thesp slightly less scummy because Adele/Mgm were pushing him, but Thesp was your #3. Once your top two came up investigated/cop, you were left with Thesp as your primary suspect.

Please point out this "top suspects elsewhere", because I don't see them anywhere in that late D2 discussion. Just Thesp.

Reading back on that part of the day, you seem to be absolutely, 100% right. I suspected MGM/Adele up until the claim. Then, after the claim, I decided that Adel/MGM being town meant Thesp was scum. I concede this point; I misremembered how things went down.

[Glork]

I'm frustrated with the manner in which MBL is choosing to analyze my meta towards him. He acts as though "shying away from townie lynches" is a single, isolated meta-observation which I do not relate to any other observations I make on him. I have already outlined several points against MBL, and his off-the-lynch behavior is but a piece of the puzzle I am trying to solve. Combined with his soft stance towards CDB D1, his rapid flip-flop on CDB D2 (remember that he tried to turn off the CDB wagon by stating that the people on it were suspicious, and that we seemed to be "ignoring the elephant to swat at the fly" or some such), etc., etc. I don't believe that any single point, taken in complete isolation, is enough to damn MBL. Yet I have nearly convinced myself that MBL is the last scum when all aspects are taken together.

Nevertheless, MBL, I will also point out that I ended up declaring myself absolutely certain that you were scum in LO2. Take a wild guess as to why that is so. Go ahead. I dare you.
No meta is perfect, yet I maintain that my description of MBLscum's behavior is an accurate description. I agree that we could toss out examples and counterexamples for a long, long time, but ultimately Patrick and Mgm will have to decide what they think of your play.

Vote: MBL

[Glork]

Believeing Fritz to be

PROTOWN

and believing Fritz to be

THE COP

are two very, very, *VERY* different things. I believe that I have a reasonably accurate meta towards Fritz, too -- I pegged him as scum in CoOps, and have successfully fingered him as town in both LO2 and this game. I decided that Fritz was probably pro-town and did not look into the matter any further until the lightbulb went off during Day Three.

[Glork]

Also, regarding the second part of your post: "It seemed quite obviuos to me at the time" is

REFERRING TO FRITZ'S RESPONSE, WHICH IS EXACTLY WHEN I REALIZED THAT HE WAS THE COP.

This is

perfectly

consistent with all of my posting and with what I just said.

[Glork]

Mgm:

your assessment of "why MBL wouldn't keep Mgm alive" really is nothing more than WIFOM, at best. It is more likely a flawed observation.

I encourage you to look at Thesp's posts. You'll find that Thesp definitely thought that I was pro-town, and he said that Patrick was reasonble, too. Look at this post (Thesp's last posted thoughts on everyone). You and MBL are

CLEARLY

his top suspects over Glork/Patrick. And given that CES died as the Godfather, that leaves only MBL as his top suspect.

You're trying to use Thesp's supposed scumhunting abilities to lead to a suspect when at the same time you rely on the same reasoning to clear yourself. (It almost sounds like you killed Thesp to make it possible to use this reasoning) Thesp was wrong to suspect me. So he could be equally wrong about suspecting MBL or trusting you and Patrick.

I'm exactly not trying to convince you that MBL had to have killed Thesp. I'm pointing out why "I can't stomach MBL leaving me alive" is not a reliable conclusion to make... I was concerned about you shutting out MBLscum as a possibility, because I really think that MBL is the last scumbag right now.

[Glork]

Glork, let's suppose for a moment that MBL and CES were both scum.
Why didn't they push or even try to justify an MBL lynch in some way? Lynching CES the GF means I became confirmed innocent. They would've had more wiggle room and no confirmed innocents today, if they gave up MBL instead - a lot better position to be in.

I actually think that MBL's quick vote on CES was an attempt to get somebody (like me) scared for a quicklynch enough to make a move on MBL. The idea that MBL just slapped a lynch-1 vote on CES *didn't* make any sense, whether MBL was town or scum. I wonder if MBL's thought process was "jump at CES, get myeslf lynched, have the town push Patrick or Mgm tomorrow." It was obvious that CES was doing nothing to try to stay alive; he had really given up at that point. I think that MBL was trying to salvage the game by making it look as though he went for a quicklynch on CES.

[Glork]

The "duh" moment came with [url=http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 783Fritz's response to my question[/url] that I linked to already:

But there's a difference bewteen being lynch-happy and letting a deadline run out because you don't want to lynch.


Just answer these few questions for now, Fritz: Did you prefer No-Lynch over lynching Thesp? If so, why? If not, why did you not hammer near deadline?

yes, cuz he's not scum and you guys are retarded

If you'd go look at the surrounding posts, that happened near the beginning of Day Three, inbetween Parts II and III of my analysis.


My response to MGM:

Can someone point out the exact post that made them think Fritzler investigated Thesp?

Very beginning of D3, I ask Fritz what he thought about possibly lynching Thesp. He said something like "I wouldnt' want to lynch Thesp because you guys are stupid." It seemed quite obvious to me at that time.

...was a reference to that exact post. When I said "It seemed quite obvious to me at that time," I meant "It seemed quite obvious that Fritz was the cop once he said that" -- that is, at the exact moment when I read Fritz's response to my questions.



I don't see where else I allegedly claimed to have discovered FritzCop. MBL claimed that it happened

during

Part III, but I denied that entirely.

[Glork]

Did you catch that the first time you read Fritz's post, or later, during your reread? That's the question we're getting at, because it looks like you've given two different answers.

Where have I allegedly given two different answers? I still don't understand what the hell's going on here.

[Glork]

Glork, have you ever seen Fritz fail to hint at his cop result?

No, I have never seen him fail to hint. That's why I'm so certain that he investigated me -- as far as I could tell, he didn't say anything indicative of him being definitely sure that any one else was pro-town; and he

certainly

didn't get a guilty result, or he'd have just voted them outright.



MGM, hypothetical situation:
Suppose the votes stand as they are, and MBL/Patrick vote each other, and we are forced into a no-lynch.
Suppose I am killed overnight.
Would you second-guess yourself out of voting Patrick, too, for not killing the guy who was dead-set on him being scum?

[Glork]

See V/LA.

[Glork]

Hypothetical, people. The point is to illustrate that letting a WIFOMy nightkill action rule your suspicions is a bad, bad idea.

[Glork]

Could you outline point-by-point why you think Patrick instead of MBL is scum?

Could you also outline point-by-point why you think MBL would necessarily have killed you instead of Thesp (as that seems to be one of your major points)?

[Glork]

So your

only

reasoning is based on the nightkill last night?

What in

Patrick's gameplay

have you seen to convince you that he is scum?





Needless to say, Mgm, I've got my heart set on lynching MBL right now. If you think Patrick is scum with the certainty you bring up, I'd suggest convincing me that he's scum. :/

[Glork]

His vote wasn't the third. It was the second.

Um...no, this is factually wrong.

MBL put a quick-third-vote on CES within hours of me putting the second vote on CES. I unvoted CES, FoS'd MBL, and then MBL unvoted CES and counter-FoS'd me. Later, I demaned that MBL put his vote back on CES, and he did so. This is the only reason that MBL shows up as second on the day-end vote count, because I got jittery and removed mine.

[Glork]

Quick compliation of posts relating dead scum and MBL and Patrick. As a typing convention, "MBL#" will refer to the "Post subject" number shown if you filter out only MBL's posts. For example, "MBL1" would refer to the second post (filtering starts with Post Subject 0) made by MBL. Patrick's, CDB's, and CES's posts will be labeled similarly.

MBL's posts regarding CDB:

CES is more active than usual early, probably because Andrew's blood is in the water. His comments so far are consistently aligned towards attaining an Andrew lynch.
...
ChannelDbird wins the late to the table on the WIFOM issue award, after interim posts avoiding it.

Noteworthy: MBL's end-of-post summary fingers MGM/Andrew, asks for better contributions from Nightfall/Adel/Zindie/Fritz, calls Patrick/Ether pro-town; fails to give any opinion of either CDB or CES.

ChannelDelibird
Voting purely on WIFOM, then again when commenting on Glork. Lame, and near-total lack of curiosity.

Cogito Ergo Sum
Way more chirpy and active than usual. I've seen him be lazy town and SK. Significantly manipulative D1. Seemingly strategic push on Thesp.

Here, he makes scathing comments about both players, but chooses to go after Adel and Thesp in his end-summary, once again choosing not to comment on either player.

Also, CES got more conservative today. CDB is trying to appear more active but isn't succeeding. All of these changes in response to the lynch and the night's events. The answer to WHO IS SCUM lies in that mess somewhere.

CES/CDB commented on in a separate paragraph from thoughts on Glork, Thesp, and Ether. We're in D2 now, and he still has yet to make a truly critical examination of either player.

MBL22 and MBL23 offer more of the same, yet

still

no willingness to vote for CDB:

Another post by CDB attempting to appear more active.

Thesp, you asked why I wasn't voting CDB, which is a bold, somewhat manipulative question for you to ask considering I'm currently voting for you. I caught CDB as scum via a cop investigation in another game but I sat back and watched his play rather than blurt out that I had a result. He was significantly manipulative in that game, and I see him as significantly passive in this game. My read on him is lazy town. My vote's on you because while you're passive as well, your behavior change indicates a desire for self-preservation rather than town preservation. I suppose CDB's does as well, but your D1-D2 shift is stark and inexplicable. His play is consistently slack.

CDB, the game was Wheel of Time.

Glork, I'd define active as not only posting, but posting substance. As an example, one is not active if they simply post a summary of events without analysis. That's trying to create the appearance of thoughtfulness and activity. Sometimes I find your manic play as an attempt to appear active, when actually you can coast through a day with that tactic and later explain it away as wily protown play instead of laziness. Sometimes you'll see Adele correct people's logic without making a statement on whether or not they're scummy--it's more conversational. Same concept.

CDB's posts don't appear to be hunting scum, or at the best, they're incomplete analyses that show limited curiosity. His reread categorizes the other eleven players according to his worldview, which is useful, except he leaves out MGM, Adele and me. At least two of those are people I see as somewhat in the spotlight. So we're left to wonder whether he's scum not truly curious about alignments or whether he's lazy town.

CES, why are you so focused on Glork's opinion of you? Your recent posts indicate you think he's scum, so wouldn't his opinion be moot in that case?

MBL: If you felt that CDB was actively lurking so hard, why didn't you choose to take any action, especially after he failed to change his ways after your initial comments towards him?

Ether, can you please go into depth about your opinions of Thesp? You say you don't find his false dilemma attacks scummy. And that you're empathetic with his singleminded D1 play for some reason? What seems genuinely protown about Thesp to you thus far?

Also, please elaborate on how/why Adele is "meh".

As for Nightfall, do you really see his significant efforts as scummy? I see sincerity of suspicion and uncertainty.

Also, can we have your opinions on the rest of the players?

CDB: What's your take on Adele and MGM?

CES: You do realize your behavior today is identical to the D1 behavior of Thesp, the guy you're trying to get lynched. Why shouldn't we be voting for you instead?

Reasonable question to CDB. Yet he brings up another good point in a weak manner towards one of CDB/CES.

CDB, you haven't answered my question.

CES and Thesp, you never REALLY answered my question, so I'll restate: how do you see Thesp D1 and CES D2 behavior differing?

Still no pressure towards either player. Ignoring/Evading questions, trying to appear active while not actually contributing, hypocrisy in one's manner of attacks.... and yet no FoS or Vote on either player.

Ether doesn't look town at all to me, CES bothers me, Zindaras bothers me, and the CDB wagon looks suspiciously scum-driven so I'm reading the fine print on that one.

Defends CDB in the heat of the wagon on CDB -- this occurred with Thesp's vote on CDB, and with Glork/Fritzler having recently moved onto CDB.

Taking the hypothesis that either Ether and/or Thesp is scum, which I believe is significantly likely to be true, that would mean that their scumpartners would be feverishly working on alternate wagons. Does that mean everyone on alternate wagons is scum? No, duh, cause it takes as many townies as scum to lynch a townie at this point. But if people are softpedaling Ether and Thesp and shuffling feet towards CDB I'm watching them.

The CDB wagon looks to me like people ignoring the elephants in the room to swat a bee. He also does not smell like a rose, but when Thesp and Fritz move on him like that--two people I saw potential alignment in yesterday--I'm wary.

...elaborates when I question him RE: CDB-wagon driven by scum. He basically says "if we accept the hypothesis that at least one of Ether/Thesp are scum, and Ether/Thesp are going after CDB, then CDB is probably not scum." Circular logic, at best. Incidentally, he states that scum would be "feverishly working on alternate wagons" to their scumpartners

while his is in the process of attempting to discredit the players voting for CDB

.

vote: ChannelDelibird. I've spotted something very naughty. I suggest the rest of you read his posts with a fine-toothed comb if you already haven't.

Suddenly MBL is all anti-CDB. What happened between last post and this one?
--MBL asked about my "when CDB turns up scum" comment, and I say that it was rather intentional. Note that this forms the basis of MBL's "I thought Glork was the cop" theory.
--I also posted that based on the sheer volume of evidence posted against CDB by Glork/Thesp, the fact that his wagon stalled at three votes was a sign that "both of CDB's scumbuddies [were] figthting (or, at the very least, patentedly avoiding) a lynch on him."

From here on out, MBL attempts to take a leading role in the CDB lynch, badgering other players to go find out why CDB was scummy. He later asserts that he was trying to protect a percieved GlorkCop whom he felt was being way too obvious. Interestingly enough, Fritz, whose protection of Thesp was completely and utterly obvious after his "cuz Thesp is town and you guys are idiots" behavior went

entirely

unnoticed, according to MBL. Does anybody else find it odd that MBL would fail to notice FritzCop (whom MBL has seen twice, as pointed out by Patrick), yet he would take action to protect a percieved GlorkCop?



...now to examine Patrick's behavior towards CDB and CES from Days 1-3. Expect another post before too long.

[Glork]

I'm not really feeling the CES wagon.

That doesn't make it less scummy, Patrick.

I hope you're joking. I expect IH to nitpick semantics. Not you though.

....wouldn't expect CES to go after semantics, yet fails to say anything more about the subject. Interesting interaction between

Also noteworthy: Patrick has said next to nothing about CES or CDB in the early goings of the game. His only comments towards CDB are his statements that CDB is one of the people Thesp called scum. Ho hum.

I've read MgM's posts and some of the accusations against him. He's made some odd posts, and hasn't paid attention at times. As I noted before his attack on Glork was strange and felt like he was sticking to a rigid policy of just voting anyone suggesting no lynch. I don't know, there seems to be less going against him that I had first thought. I'm not sure I find him any worse than ppl like Adele or CDB. I'm unsure of how much weight to put into the apparent slip pointed out by MBL, where he apparently assumes the township of Glork and Andrew. I used to think these tells were reliable, but in some games I've seen pro town players make them, just by wording awkwardly.

CDB has hardly said anything all game and what he has said is not that insightful. Adele also hasn't done too much. She voted AndrewS, then jumped off the wagon with a few critisisms of him, then voted spectrumvoid with no reason given, then suggests a suboptimal vigging strategy. I'm fairly underwhelmed.

Doesn't like CDB, yet treats him much the same way that MBL had treated CDB/CES. Patrick has still made considerably fewer comments on either player.

Interesting to note that to start D2, Patrick votes Glork and provides this reasoning:

My main reason for voting Glork is that he's been unhelpful all game.

...what was that you were saying about CDB? Why did you drop the CDB-hate altogether and decide to audible to Glork?

I'm going to

Unvote

at this point.

ChannelDelibird: Seems more like a spectator than a player. I was going to suggest replacing him, but he just made a post before me. I don't find his post very inspiring though. He hasn't come up with much original content. I'll have to metagame him a bit, as we have little playhistory.

CES: I admit I'm partially relying on others who know him better. Seems bandwagonish. Voted Andrew and voted spectrumvoid, didn't really say why. Not sure how he might play as scum.

...these comments towards CDB/CES during a summary of all of the players. He basically gives an excuse for not looking critically at CES (note that CES had given very similar excuses for following me around all day on Day Four), and he again makes a "CDB is :unhelpful:" post.

I asked if it was scummy. As you can see I still haven't moved my vote from you, so thinking I was appealing for a bandwagon appears a bit premature. Sometimes asking for info doesn't mean the person asking the question has ulterior motives.

The fact that you haven't moved your vote doesn't matter. The point being made is that you were sort of testing the waters, seeing if there was any momentum in the direction of CDB. I think it's possible that CDB is just being used as the scum patsy here.

Patrick defends CDB against MGM somewhat, suggesting that CDB was being manipulated by scum who were "testing the waters" for a case against him.

What? I said it might be a weak scum tell, but that I'm undecided and would have to judge on a case by case basis. Sometimes I see someone playing lazily in such a way that makes me think they're scum, sometimes they look like apathetic town.

FoS Thesp.

That is such a reaching argument. You're case against CDB is reaching and of roughly the same quality as your case against Andrew was. There's something not quite right about your play compared too times I've seen you as town.

Patrick53 is a defense of CDB against Thesp now.

Thesp, Patrick, and CDB all expressed "sorry for lurking/slacking, I'll contribute" sentiments. Guarantee at least one is probably scum.

This is just a false dilemna. I don't make a habit of it, but I'd just not posted in a few days and wanted to let ppl know that I'd be back to it the following day. To suggest that one of us is likely scum because of that is ridiculous, and is not the first false dilemna you've presented in your long posts.

Defense of himself, Thesp, and CDB by A) discrediting my point as false dilemma; and B) asserting that "apologies for lurking" is not a scumtell.

CDB: Slightlybad. It seems now that he must be deliberately lurking, since I've seen him around so much and yet he doesn't post here. Looking at all his posts right now - 21. Not much at all. Seems to have been focussing mainly on Thesp for a bit now, and it seems very easy to do. Incorrectly applied WIFOM, has posted since Thesp's complaints about this but no reply. Yeah I don't like him much.

....

CES: Meh. I dunno, though I don't understand the fanatisism for lynching Thesp which has been going on for a while now.

....

Actually I find Ether's lack of hammer fairly townish regardless of Thesp's alignment. <3 Ether for being tricksy. I could see Zindaras/CDB together, and out of the two I'd prefer to kill Zindaras. Hmm something I saw earlier made me think Zindaras and mgm could be together too. I disliked the way Zindaras seemed to be preparing himself to ooze onto the MgM wagon around pages 28/29. Then interestingly enough MgM attacked me for asking Zindaras for his reasons as Glork noticed in post 722. Then Zindaras was noncommital on mgm for a while, saying he was analysing him, while asking everyone for their opinions. Then, when it was finally looking like Mgm probably wasn't going to be the lynch for the day anyway, Zindaras finally voted him. Also makes minor attempt to link me with mgm. Damn. I could definitely see these two guys together.

CDB "slightly bad."
This is the

second

time out of

two

summary-posts in which Patrick has essentially said "I don't know, I'll follow others" regarding his stance towards CES.
Posits Zindaras/CDB, but shows a definite strong pereference for a Zindaras-lynch. He even turns that paragraph into suggesting a Zindaras/MGM pairing instead.

Patrick's thoughts on Fritz are interesting, too. I would suggest reading Post 963 and the posts which follow immediately. MBL and Mgm: Do either of you see this as a tacit confession of knowing Fritz's role?

Heh, that is interesting. CDB shows that he has been reading the thread and pops up with a roleclaim when under pressure. I have read through his posts, and may have an idea what is wrong, though it didn't necesarily jump out as immediately damning so maybe I'm not on the right track.

I agree with CES's previous post. Also, CDB didn't claim any night choices, which would have been easy for him to add in two minutes if he actually made them, but if he's scum he probably wouldn't have had time to make up nightchoices.

Note... here is CES's post:

Okay, nobody should counterclaim yet.

MrBuddyLee, why don't you share what you "found" in his posts? If it is damning as you make it out to be, then I see no reason to out the real last power role.

(I'm wary of the claim, as a roleblockerclaim does not require results and it makes so much sense for Channelscum to claim it to get the final power role out that I'm quite willing to lynch him without a counterclaim if there's good reason to believe he's scum.)

Make of that what you will.


...the rest of Patrick's D3 posts are "CDB feels like scum who has given up" until he finally puts a hammering vote on before the end of the day.



Re-reading Patrick's early play has definitely put a new light on this entire game.

Patrick, do you have

any

explanation to offer as to why you posted

so incredibly little

analysis on either CDB or CES during the early game? Do you have anything to say to the fact that, while most of your comments towards CDB were of the scathing "I think he's not contributing" variety, you never FoS'd or voted him, and you even started off D2 by voting me for undercontributing and acting weird?


I don't know who I want to lynch anymore.

[Glork]

Interesting timing of your first substantive suspicions of Patrick today, Glork. You've gone after me exclusively today, but now that I'm actually considering voting Patrick over you, which would make him lynchable today, you've "seen the light"?

I haven't "seen" any "light." I'm just taking a step back and reassessing things.

What are you getting at, anyway. You seem like the kind of player who would

encourage

me to make a substantial re-read. Remember how you had earlier asked why I hadn't posted any analysis on Patrick? Now that I'm finally making such an effort, you're voicing suspicion of me?


1) You have horribly mischaracterized my post regarding Patrick. I still may very well slap my vote back on you (and to be quite frank, your response makes me want to do that right now).
2) You've cited me "chiding Mgm for his singular focus" and now that I'm trying to keep an open mind about whom I think might be scum, you're labeling me as opportunistic.




It feels like you're trying to put me in a lose-lose situation here. Really, MBL. Just how much cake do you want to have and eat? Do you rob bakeries when you're not off killing innocents?

[Glork]

I should also note, MBL, that my analysis of your D1-D3 behavior regarding CES/CDB is really no better than Patrick's. The unvote signifies "I am no longer so certain of MBLscum that I am willing to risk the game on it." Your play has been far from stellar all game, considering you treated CDB with kid-gloves during the most crucial part of the Thesp/Glork/Fritz push against him.

I'd like you to respond to my post against you. I'd like you to explain your behavior towards both CES and CDB in the early parts of the game.

[Glork]

MBL: If you think that I was being opportunistic to go after Patrick, what do you have to say about the fact that I made a lengthy post about your scumminess towards CES/CDB first?
I find it somewhat unbelievable that your reaction would go from "here he goes, attacking me and ignoring Patrick yet again" to "oh, now he's being opportunistic against Patrick." The fact that I made a post-by-post analysis on each of you, and that they both amounted to the same conclusion ("Both players took a disturbingly soft stance towards both CDB and CES throughout most of D1 through D3.") would suggest an objective, balanced analysis of the early part of the game, would it not?


--------------------------


Mgm, could you post your thoughts on Post 1886:

Is there anything else you wanted to hear from the other players? Any specific questions, general thoughts/comments?

I'll let you read what parts you want to read and I wouldn't mind seeing Mgm's thing as well. Actually I would be pretty interested in seeing Mgm's thing.

** Comment on laziness from before: I don't think Thesp has been playing any lazier than normal, nor am I playing lazier than normal. In fact I've put more into this game than my average game. The laziness that bothers me is mostly CES. If I had one/two votes on me, especially from varying people, and with others expressing suspicion of me, I'd be freaking out and trying my hardest to convince people that I shouldn't be lynched and that they should take me out of quicklynch range. Maybe that reflects just different playstyle between me and CES rather than a possible different alignment, but it feels like he's acting in the same that ChannelDelibird was acting when we had nailed him.**

MBL's analysis today is pretty good, and looks fairly protown, but I know he's thorough as scum and I wouldn't put it past him to do it as scum as well as town. I think if he is protown then voting CES like that was not the cleverest idea in the world, but equally if he is scum with Mgm then it would also have been a really sloppy attempt to snatch victory when just waiting a day or two would have been completely safe.

The pairing that worries me the most (after CES/Mgm which is currently my top one) is actually CES/MBL rather than Mgm/MBL. I think I mentioned before that there seems to be alot of genuine friction between MBL and Mgm. MBL pushed Mgm hard day 1 when he wasn't a top candidate, and let's remember if Mgm is scum he's the godfather. Would a goon set out to bus the GF early? I could see a GF busing heavily at a pinch because he can't be touched by cops but a goon busing the GF seems risky when you don't know what the poweroles are. And again later, there just seems to be alot of genuine angst between them. I'm still not too happy with Mgm's opening to today, because it looked pre planned, and not at all how I felt starting the day, and apparently not how Glork (who I think is protown) felt at the start of the day, which may indicate a different mindset. Pre planned busing or pre planned attempt to frame MBL with a slightly off nightkill? Or just unusual playstyle bleh. Glork, if you have some link you can see between Mgm and MBL, other than MBL's vote for CES, then you might as well tell us. For MBL/CES though, there is some distance between them but not as much, could be contrived. I'm not going to worry that much about it right now because in this case lynching CES is absolutely fine anyway. If CES were to be lynched as a godfather, MBL is very likely the other scum.

Taking it one step at a time, CES seems like the best lynch to me. How worried are you about that MBL/Thesp pairing you were talking about before? Because I've taken it mainly that CES has been blowing steam, but again, if there's some link between them then now is the time, we might not get another chance. Thesp has seemed pretty genuinely protown to me for a while now though.

Note, Mgm, that this came after a post in which I said: "Patrick, you and I think we're pro-town, and the two of us are deciding today's lynch, so give me your opinions and I will take them into consideration."

Would you have expected PatrickScum to come back with a post that amounted to "CES is the lynch today" or would you have expected PatrickScum to attempt to convince me that MBL was the play for the way he pounced on CES? Keep in mind that, if Patrick/CES were the scumpair, Patrick could have jumped on MBL just as I did, gotten a mislynch on MBL, and ended the game right there and then.

You say that MBL's behavior towards CES yesterday makes no sense from a scum perspective. I've been thinking that Patrick's behavior yesterday makes no sense from a scum perspective, and I have proposed a scenario where MBLscum would pounce on CESscum just the way he did.

[Glork]

The "after MGM voted Patrick" and "just as I was coming around to Patrick" is nothing more than a little verobse hand-waving.



Fact: Patrick and MGM find it likely that I was investigated as innocent by Fritzler.
Fact: It was not until after both players had made their impressions on this subject clear that you decided I was "60%" likely to be confirmed innocent.
Observation: You did not start to warm up to the idea that GlorkTown was likely until after both other players had likely shut out the possibility of me being scum. It is at this point that you finally start to turn your eye specifically towards Patrick.

Fact: Mgm made it very explicit early in the day that he did not believe you to be scum, based primarily on the ThespKill and on his interpretation of your behavior yesterday.
Reasonable conclusion: Anybody early in the day could have guessed that Mgm would ultimately vote Patrick.
--Corollary: Patrick was the "easy lynch" from the get-go, as he initially FoS'd Patrick and said that he "couldn't stomach" MBLscum killing Thesp.
Fact: In spite of this reasonable conclusion, I have first spent considerable time and effort attempting to persuade Mgm that you are scum, and not Patrick.


Now, ask yourself the following questions:

--How different do you feel that my play has been as compared to your own? I would argue that your strategy today has been to leave your options as open as possible so that narrowing them down to whatever suits you personally the best looks as logical and natural as you can possibly make them. I would like you to compare and contrast your most recent allegations to your own play throughout today. Explain to me why my behavior is suspicious to you, but why yours is perfectly acceptable. What makes your movement from Glork-scummy to Glork-60%-confirmed-innocent --

only after Patrick and Mgm had both accepted me as likely confirmed innocent

-- so different from my play today?
**NOTE: I have in mind for this, but I cannot properly ask that question until you have responded.**

--How can you accuse me of being opportunistic Re: Patrick when MGM's Patrick-vote has been the writing on the walls for so long? Would you expect GlorkScum to take literally weeks to make the kind of turn that you have suggested?

--If I stay focused on you, I'm a narrow-minded fool going for the "easy lynch" according to you. If I look at Patrick critically and still claim that his play has been clean, I'm a dirty liar (because, really, now that I've looked at Patrick's play, I don't think anybody in their right mind could arrive at that conclusion). If I look at Patrick critically and decide that he's not as shiny and good as I had previously thought, I'm "opportunistic."
Do you see why I am miffed at your reaction to my most recent analysis?

--Before I made that post, Mgm had stated his belief that I am innocent. Patrick had made a very similar assertion, and even you had warmed up to the idea that I was more likely confirmed-innocent than not. If I were scum, the easiest route to victory would have been to stay where I was, force No-Lynch, kill the known cop-confirmed innocent, and wait for one of you/Patrick to put a vote on the other. The fact of the matter is that there *IS* compelling evidence to believe that I am completely
I would argue that in two separate ways today, I have made plays that would be far from optimal as scum,

both

of which involve

not doing the actual EASY thing

. Yet you assert that my behavior has been opportunistic while failing to take into account the full context of what's going on. Do you, right now, believe that I am seeking the "easy route" to victory? If so, what makes that route easier than any other?

[Glork]

EBWODP:

**NOTE: I have

a follow-up question

in mind for this, but I cannot properly ask that question until you have responded.**

[Glork]

Gah. I fail at proofreading... and at keeping a coherent thought.

EBWOTP:

The fact of the matter is that there *IS* compelling evidence to believe that I am completely

confirmed, and even if I were scum, I had an "easy" route to victory already established. Mgm was voting for Patrick, and you were warming up to Patrick. All I'd have had to do was to

wait for you to finally make your move and then just hammer him myself.

[Glork]

And in case you haven't realized it yet, MBL:
I have not yet denied that your initial reaction is completely falsified. I realize that you are prone to skepticism and suspicion in general. But instead of sitting back and letting you take a potshot on me with a very

shallow

observation, I want you to dig a little deeper and actually get into the meat of my play. As you muck through the depths of my play, do you really believe that surface suspicion, or are you willing to admit that you overstated yourself? While one interpretation may be that I was opportunistic, is that the most sensible, logical, or (most importantly)

likely

interpretation? It seems to me that you're just looking to tack on added suspicion to any one of Patrick/Glork wherever you can without stopping for a moment to think about our behavior in its fullest context, with all of its implications. I expect higher-level analysis from you, and I'm just not seeing it right now. If you're town, you need to realize this, and you need to try a bit harder. If you're scum, you're being a little obvious about the whole "leaving my options open by making everyone but me look suspicous" thing (which, I should point out,

IS

how I would expect scum to behave -- it's exactly how I behaved at the end of Space Monkey -- throw things out in every direction, wait for somebody to bite, then lay down the winning vote).

[Glork]

MBL, I want you to answer my questions to you. Each and every one of them. I want you to answer them to the best of your ability in an analytical, thoughtful post (or series of posts). If you fail to answer each and every question that I posted, I will treat it exactly the same way as I treated CES's continued refusal to respond to my inquiries of him. (In other words, the less you answer to, the more suspicious I will become of you.)



MGM, I would like you to make a direct response to Patrick's post which I quoted. Do you see PatrickScum picking CES over MBL yesterday when I asked him for his opinion and said that I trusted him?

[Glork]

I'm sure you can set aside one hour in the next couple of days to read, analyze, and respond to my posts. Heck, I'm in the interviewing stage for

four

jobs right now, and spent nearly twelve hours out of town yesterday, and I still managed to make some thoughtful posts in this game yesterday.

[Glork]

EBWODP: Er... to give a more clear answer: Do whatever you want, as long as you get a timely and appropriate response to me. If by midweek I haven't gotten that response, I'm going to be very, very angry.

[Glork]

Mod:

I

Unvote

d MBL in Post 2035. Thanks. <3



On the first point, MBL: You're right in that there was nothing specific in "the day's play" (that is to say, Day Three) that would be damning on CDB. However, over the course of my re-read -- as well as finding out that Fritz was the Cop and had an innocent on Thesp -- I noticed a rather chilling compliation of infractions that led me to believe that he was scum. That, and... (this is probably going to sound very silly, but it's the dead honest truth) knowing that Thesp was very, very likely pro-town, and that he had zoomed in on one player specifically, I sensed that he had picked up on something big, and I was willing to trust him. I've only seen Thesp behave that stubbornly as town once or twice before, and he was dead right. Thesp is an eerily accurate scumhunter, and knowing that he was locked onto CDB gave me much more confidence in my suspicions.

Is there one specific thing that caused me to change my mind? No. Absolutely not. But there were numerous little things that just gave me a very, very uneasy feeling about him.

What I would like to know, MBL, is why you feel my certainty is indicative of scum in this particular situation. You know that's how I played in LO2 as town. I could easily point to another half-dozen games at the drop of a hat where I expressed similar

certainty

throughout the game, while pro-town. If you intend to use this as a point against me, I would like you to explain why exactly it is indicative of scum in

this game

in spite of the fact that playing with confidence/certainty has basically always been the way I've done things.

I think scum often go after weak sheep, and when Thesp went after me, Andrew and CDB I sensed opportunism.

What specifically (posts, interations, attitudes) caused you to believe that Thesp was being opportunistic? Was it, by any chance, his proclaimed

certainty

regarding his proclaimed scumbags?

If you're town, that's being thorough and even-handed. That would be cover if you are scum--attempting to look thorough and even-handed.

I am going to play some mild WIFOM and ask you to meta me fairly heavily: Based on your past experiences with and reads of Glorkscum, do you think I have a history of "appearing thorough and even-headed"? Is your opinion of this level of posting consistent with the way you have seen me in this game?

Any difference that comes to mind is colored by the fact that you've been pushing/voting an innocent all day, and more aggressively so than the other possible scum.

I have to say, I literally honestly spit my juice out when I read this. Did you really just state that you're allowing OMGUS to significantly influence your opinion in a large decision at endgame?
Here is what I got out of this: "You've been going after me really aggressively, and I'm town, so that makes you more likely to be scum."
If that's an accurate summary, I want you to explain why your conclusion is legitimate
If it is not an accurate summary, I would love for you to enlighten me. (And I would then like you to explain why such an opinion is a legitimate means of finding scum.)

I don't know where you get "weeks" from--it was only a week ago that Mgm started zeroing in on Patrick.

Sorry. A solid week. It feels like longer to me. And when I say that the writing has been on the wall that long, I'm referring to this post, made on July 8, 10:45 AM EDT, when it became apparent that Mgm was very likely going to eventually vote Patrick:

CES more active and chirpy than usual, and focussing on an Andrew lynch. This CES meta thing about being more active as scum has been brought up a few times by several people. Glork and Mgm, can you remind me if this is true? Both of you have more experience with CES than me.

From what I've seen CES tends to be quite, so a chirpy CES is a deviation from the norm. Doesn't say much, though.

Actually, I can't stomach the idea that MBL would leave me alive after yesterday. He had no idea I would change my mind today and leaving such a vocal player alive that wants to lynch you is almost certainly suicide. With Glork likely investigated (I still need to check), I'm tending towards Patrick as the last scum which makes those last lines all the more scummy...

FOS:Patrick

that's tempered by a natural suspicion of the malleability of the oft-certain Glork.

...another lose-lose situation you present to me. If I stay certain, I'm too certain to be town. If I change, I'm suspicous for not being certain. Note that your "malleability of the oft-certain Glork" is basically an admission that you realize that I often play as though I'm certain of everything -- yet you continue to assert that my earlier play is indicative of me being scum.

Why?

LOL, this entirely depends on whether you're town or scum! If you're scum, of course it was opportunistic.

No, no, no, no. You're creating a circular argument. "If Glork is scum, then he was being opportunistic, which makes him more likely to be scum" and "If Glork is town, then he was being open to possibilities, which makes him more likely to be scum." Of course that's the case, MBL. Any idiot could see what my posts mean IF I am scum or not. But the whole point of this game is that

you are trying to decide IF I am scum or not

. You can't start with the conclusion and arrive at the conclusion.

Major FoS: MBL

for using craptastic logic to avoid my question.

I want you to state,

without qualifiers on my alignment

whether you think that OpportunisticGlork is the most likely/sensible explanation for what I did.

Why did you challenge me mano-a-mano D4 when I voted CES, demanding I try to lynch you instead?

Because, at the time, I found Nightfall/MBL to be by far the most likely scumpairing, and I thought that your attacking me while voting CES was a rather large misdirection. Now, I see that it was probably a mere distancing tactic from CES -- keep your vote sitting lazily on your Godfather, take a couple of potshots, but get into the heated debate with Glork. What's worse is that I handed you the out/excuse that you needed to move away from CES and onto me... I gave it to you wrapped up, with a pretty little bow on top.

What's your explanation for using the same bogus argument on me (re: off-the-lynch) this game as you used in SpeedyKQ's as scum?

The arguments are actually fundamentally different.
In SpeedyKQ's, I was insinuating that you had knowledge that only scum could have. (Huh... certainty? Too certain to be town? Konwledge that the town couldn't have? Nah... couldn't be.)
In this game, I am claiming that your tactics are being employed to make you as untraceable as possible.
Same actions, vastly different tactics/intentions.

[Glork]

and the natural assumption is that recklessness is proportional to scumminess.

I know many, many, MANY players who would disagree with this. In fact, in SIHM Mafia, Mith said (paraphrased) "careless Glork is more likely to be town Glork," so I know at least one player who disagrees with this assertion with regards to me specifically.

Sure, but it's tough not to at endgame. You have to view every action as either genuine or faux-genuine, and the likelihood of each approaches 50-50. I agree I can try harder to mine for the gems of truth in the posts you guys make. I've currently been focused on the negative, probably because both of you have ill-placed suspicions.

Fail. Megafail.
Avoiding circular logic is easy, if you're pro-town. You would simply start with an unknown ("I don't know what X's alignment is.") and work towards a known ("X's posts look opportunistic, so I think that X is likely to be scum.") The only hard part is explaining "X's posts look opportunistic" without saying "if/because X is scum."

Seriously.... if you want an example, look at my analysis of Patrick. Even operating under the impression that Patrick was town, I looked at his posts within the context of the game and not any outside impressions, hypotheticals, or suppositions. I arrived at the conclusion that I was too firm in that initial impression.

C'mon, MBL. I shouldn't have to teach you how to use logic. I think you're trying to take the easy way out by saying "it's hard not to use circular logic." I find it very easy to avoid circular logic. Don't assume the conclusions which you are trying to determine.

Glork, same question to you, Ether did nothing notable at all between April 5th and April 20th. Why your change of tune?

Ether presented a very well-explained case that was ultimately lost in the missing posts from the server move and crash. That post included pointing out Nightfall's "but Fritz is lurking, too; why are we going after CDB?" post which served to convince me (and Thesp, if you remember correctly) that Nightfall was scum.

I believe I even mentioned this after the crash came back.

EDIT: Okay, not explicitly... but I said that, lost in the posts, I liked Ether's attack on Nightfall. The attack to which I was referring occurred during the crash. In fact, Ether recapped exactly what she said during the crash in this post. If you had bothered to read the surrounding context, you would know this already.

Why were you eager to trust Thesp on CDB but not CES?

I was more convinced that you and Nightfall were very likely the last remaining scums?
Saying that I put weight on Thesp's opinion does not mean that I will follow him regardless. That's just terrible play. Keep in mind that CES was also on my list; I just wasn't as sure about him, because he plays this flippant style rather often, as both town and scum.

[Glork]

Same here.


Needless to say, Mgm's opinion is kindof important. Perhaps we could get a courtesy

modprod

on him?

[Glork]

MGM: My biggest outlying question right now would be for you to address this:

Mgm, could you post your thoughts on Post 1886:

Is there anything else you wanted to hear from the other players? Any specific questions, general thoughts/comments?

I'll let you read what parts you want to read and I wouldn't mind seeing Mgm's thing as well. Actually I would be pretty interested in seeing Mgm's thing.

** Comment on laziness from before: I don't think Thesp has been playing any lazier than normal, nor am I playing lazier than normal. In fact I've put more into this game than my average game. The laziness that bothers me is mostly CES. If I had one/two votes on me, especially from varying people, and with others expressing suspicion of me, I'd be freaking out and trying my hardest to convince people that I shouldn't be lynched and that they should take me out of quicklynch range. Maybe that reflects just different playstyle between me and CES rather than a possible different alignment, but it feels like he's acting in the same that ChannelDelibird was acting when we had nailed him.**

MBL's analysis today is pretty good, and looks fairly protown, but I know he's thorough as scum and I wouldn't put it past him to do it as scum as well as town. I think if he is protown then voting CES like that was not the cleverest idea in the world, but equally if he is scum with Mgm then it would also have been a really sloppy attempt to snatch victory when just waiting a day or two would have been completely safe.

The pairing that worries me the most (after CES/Mgm which is currently my top one) is actually CES/MBL rather than Mgm/MBL. I think I mentioned before that there seems to be alot of genuine friction between MBL and Mgm. MBL pushed Mgm hard day 1 when he wasn't a top candidate, and let's remember if Mgm is scum he's the godfather. Would a goon set out to bus the GF early? I could see a GF busing heavily at a pinch because he can't be touched by cops but a goon busing the GF seems risky when you don't know what the poweroles are. And again later, there just seems to be alot of genuine angst between them. I'm still not too happy with Mgm's opening to today, because it looked pre planned, and not at all how I felt starting the day, and apparently not how Glork (who I think is protown) felt at the start of the day, which may indicate a different mindset. Pre planned busing or pre planned attempt to frame MBL with a slightly off nightkill? Or just unusual playstyle bleh. Glork, if you have some link you can see between Mgm and MBL, other than MBL's vote for CES, then you might as well tell us. For MBL/CES though, there is some distance between them but not as much, could be contrived. I'm not going to worry that much about it right now because in this case lynching CES is absolutely fine anyway. If CES were to be lynched as a godfather, MBL is very likely the other scum.

Taking it one step at a time, CES seems like the best lynch to me. How worried are you about that MBL/Thesp pairing you were talking about before? Because I've taken it mainly that CES has been blowing steam, but again, if there's some link between them then now is the time, we might not get another chance. Thesp has seemed pretty genuinely protown to me for a while now though.

Note, Mgm, that this came after a post in which I said: "Patrick, you and I think we're pro-town, and the two of us are deciding today's lynch, so give me your opinions and I will take them into consideration."

Would you have expected PatrickScum to come back with a post that amounted to "CES is the lynch today" or would you have expected PatrickScum to attempt to convince me that MBL was the play for the way he pounced on CES? Keep in mind that, if Patrick/CES were the scumpair, Patrick could have jumped on MBL just as I did, gotten a mislynch on MBL, and ended the game right there and then.

You say that MBL's behavior towards CES yesterday makes no sense from a scum perspective. I've been thinking that Patrick's behavior yesterday makes no sense from a scum perspective, and I have proposed a scenario where MBLscum would pounce on CESscum just the way he did.

Vote: MBL

Simply put, I still think MBL is more likely to be scum than Patrick.

[Glork]

Can we also get a

Modprod

on MrBuddyLee? He hasn't posted since July 16.

[Glork]

Or you're hoping for a deadline, no-lynch, GlorkKill, and that Mgm won't WIFOM himself out of voting Patrick tomorrow.

[Glork]

...which reminds me. You never explained who Fritz's N2 investigation was, if not me(or why he would elect not to hint-drop his investigation).

[Glork]

Patrick: Is there any particular reason you have not placed your vote yet?

[Glork]

You've made much of his supposed certainty and "bluster" on various people, but I don't see how it's particularly different to how he plays normally. For example you went on for ages about how Zindaras gave us pretty much zero material yet Glork changed his mind on him from thinking he was scum to thinking he was town. I thought it was clear he'd switched mainly because of the attitudes towards Zindaras from certain people (mainly you), and whilst I didn't agree with his specific assessment, it was correct.

My god.... somebody else on this website understands me.


I was beginning to think that all of those people had left forever.

[Glork]

Glork, why have you been on the leading bandwagon each and every day of the game?

That's pretty much how I do thinks. Need I link to other games?


Also, Mgm, you still have not addressed my earlier posts. I am going to repost this YET AGAIN, because I'd really like a response one way or another:

MGM: My biggest outlying question right now would be for you to address this:

Mgm, could you post your thoughts on Post 1886:

Is there anything else you wanted to hear from the other players? Any specific questions, general thoughts/comments?

I'll let you read what parts you want to read and I wouldn't mind seeing Mgm's thing as well. Actually I would be pretty interested in seeing Mgm's thing.

** Comment on laziness from before: I don't think Thesp has been playing any lazier than normal, nor am I playing lazier than normal. In fact I've put more into this game than my average game. The laziness that bothers me is mostly CES. If I had one/two votes on me, especially from varying people, and with others expressing suspicion of me, I'd be freaking out and trying my hardest to convince people that I shouldn't be lynched and that they should take me out of quicklynch range. Maybe that reflects just different playstyle between me and CES rather than a possible different alignment, but it feels like he's acting in the same that ChannelDelibird was acting when we had nailed him.**

MBL's analysis today is pretty good, and looks fairly protown, but I know he's thorough as scum and I wouldn't put it past him to do it as scum as well as town. I think if he is protown then voting CES like that was not the cleverest idea in the world, but equally if he is scum with Mgm then it would also have been a really sloppy attempt to snatch victory when just waiting a day or two would have been completely safe.

The pairing that worries me the most (after CES/Mgm which is currently my top one) is actually CES/MBL rather than Mgm/MBL. I think I mentioned before that there seems to be alot of genuine friction between MBL and Mgm. MBL pushed Mgm hard day 1 when he wasn't a top candidate, and let's remember if Mgm is scum he's the godfather. Would a goon set out to bus the GF early? I could see a GF busing heavily at a pinch because he can't be touched by cops but a goon busing the GF seems risky when you don't know what the poweroles are. And again later, there just seems to be alot of genuine angst between them. I'm still not too happy with Mgm's opening to today, because it looked pre planned, and not at all how I felt starting the day, and apparently not how Glork (who I think is protown) felt at the start of the day, which may indicate a different mindset. Pre planned busing or pre planned attempt to frame MBL with a slightly off nightkill? Or just unusual playstyle bleh. Glork, if you have some link you can see between Mgm and MBL, other than MBL's vote for CES, then you might as well tell us. For MBL/CES though, there is some distance between them but not as much, could be contrived. I'm not going to worry that much about it right now because in this case lynching CES is absolutely fine anyway. If CES were to be lynched as a godfather, MBL is very likely the other scum.

Taking it one step at a time, CES seems like the best lynch to me. How worried are you about that MBL/Thesp pairing you were talking about before? Because I've taken it mainly that CES has been blowing steam, but again, if there's some link between them then now is the time, we might not get another chance. Thesp has seemed pretty genuinely protown to me for a while now though.

Note, Mgm, that this came after a post in which I said: "Patrick, you and I think we're pro-town, and the two of us are deciding today's lynch, so give me your opinions and I will take them into consideration."

Would you have expected PatrickScum to come back with a post that amounted to "CES is the lynch today" or would you have expected PatrickScum to attempt to convince me that MBL was the play for the way he pounced on CES? Keep in mind that, if Patrick/CES were the scumpair, Patrick could have jumped on MBL just as I did, gotten a mislynch on MBL, and ended the game right there and then.

You say that MBL's behavior towards CES yesterday makes no sense from a scum perspective. I've been thinking that Patrick's behavior yesterday makes no sense from a scum perspective, and I have proposed a scenario where MBLscum would pounce on CESscum just the way he did.

[Glork]

MBL, you still haven't addressed the issue of "If Fritz didn't investigate me, who did he investigate and/or why didn't he hit?" point brought up earlier.

[Glork]

Specifically, MBL, I would like you to address Fritz's change from "I'm following Thesp, not you" (paraphrased, of coruse) to "Who's the play, Glork?" (also paraphrased), as pointed out in Patrick's 239th post:

Asks Thesp who the play is and makes a point of saying that he was not asking Glork. Day 3, he then asks Glork who he wants to lynch. Tangible difference.

Specifically, I want you to answer:
A) Why this is different from typical "I have an innocent on you" behavior from Fritz; and
B) Why FritzCop would say that towards me and nothing similar towards anybody else (i.e., the hypothetical "other" whom he would have investigated).
C) Why Fritz would come to such a change in heart sans-investigation.


Earlier today, you gave a 60% chance that Fritz investiagted me. Why exactly has that percentage decreased?

[Glork]

MBL, your alternate theory would depend on me flat-out TELLING FRITZ THAT I KNEW HE WAS THE COP. Can you find

ANY

rationale for me to do that as scum?

Sorry, mate, but you'll have to do a hell of a lot better than that.



Also, your "significantly possible" bit doesn't do anything for me. As has already been stated, your "60% likely that Fritz investigated GlorK" means that there is, in your mind, a 60% chance that Patrick is *ABSOLUTELY* the last scumbag. So there is

AT LEAST

a 60% chance in your mind that I am not scum. Yet you say you are "very close" to voting me?

Seriously. You can die now.

[Glork]

Sorry, but whether it's 40% or 60% or 50% at this point, it's just not at all certain that Fritz investigated you. I'm taking many considerations into account when making my decision, and that's just one of them. Voting records, misstatements, inconsistencies, nightkill choices, the opinions of the deceased, and metagaming--they all factor in.

I'm sorry, but knowing how certain you are that Fritz investigated me is more relevant than ANYTHING ELSE today, if you're thinking of voting me otherwise. You openly stated that

IN SPITE OF MY BEHAVIOR

, you believed that it was

LIKELY

that Fritz had investigated me. And yet now you're going against this

SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE THAT I AM GUARANTEED INNOCENT

because you can't see any other way out of your current predicament.

Seriously. If you think my behavior is scummy (which you obviously do), you

MUST

address the Fritz-investigation issue, if you are pro-town. You did earlier, and you stated that it was MORE LIKELY THAN NOT that I am CONFIRMED INNOCENT. You seem to be skirting and downplaying it as much as humanly possible, which is partly why I am choosing to focus on it.

The fact that you're trying to ride my genuine uncertainty on the issue to a mislynch is just one more thing to pile on the heap of "unreasonable things Glork probably wouldn't have done if he were town."

ps. I guess you'd rather change the subject to cop confirmations than address the analysis posts to which I just gave my Saturday.

No, no, no. In endgame, regardless of alignment, a player is going to use a sticking point to try to prove their innocence. I have no idea why you say I "probably wouldn't" do this as pro-town. In Mini 358 (I think that was the number -- I can double-check later), in endgame, I tried to convince the other two players to just vote each other and let me decide, even though I understood that there was evidence against me. I was protown there. Your claim that I "probably wouldn't" try to prove my innocence as town is

complete and utter bullshit

. And I think you *know* that.

MBL, your alternate theory would depend on me flat-out TELLING FRITZ THAT I KNEW HE WAS THE COP. Can you find

ANY

rationale for me to do that as scum?

In retrospect, I can't see any rationale for you doing that as town OR scum. You pretty much outed the guy, you admitted to it in your quote below, and I'm surprised so many people missed it:

The ":knowstuff: [/Fritz]" post was a signal to Fritz that I knew he was the Cop. I'm reasonably sure he picked up on it.

More correctly, your post was a signal to everyone, including the three scumbags, that you knew Fritz was the Cop. Why would you do such a reckless, retarded thing as town? Granted, many of us missed it, but it would only take one scumbag to notice. Or, more likely, you weren't worried about hinting openly because you're not protown.

I will admit that I made a mistake in the way I did it. As I have stated *multiple* times, I was trying to make it seem like I was a cop. I figured a ":knowstuff:" comment would hint to everyone that I had information, and hopefully that I was just mimicking Fritz for laughs. I screwed up there, bigtime. But my protown rationale has already been stated: I wanted Fritz to know I knew he was the cop, and I wanted everyone else to think I was a Cop.

Your "you [as hypothetical scum] don't have to worry about hinting" statement is also complete trash. I *would* have to worry about hinting; whether somebody would come out and state that they were onto Fritz, especially

BEFORE

killing him, has already been discussed extensively. It makes ZERO sense to do so. Furthermore, we already know that CES claimed to have not noticed Fritz's tells, and he did *NOT* hint as such, yet he was scum.

Bottom line: I have given protown rationale for making that statement. You have not given scum rationale for making that statement. Like MGM said, it was

STUPID

form me to do, but as scum, it would have been

INCOMPREHENSIBLE

. I'm sorry, sir, but you fail miserably.


-----------------

First you are deadset on lynching MBL and then you unvote at the end of the same RL day. What happened for you to change your mind so soon?

I did an analysis on Patrick, made Post 2035, and then I felt much less sure about my vote for MBL.
Since then, MBL's behavior (and my thoughts on that post by Patrick, which you

STILL

have yet to address) have re-convinced me that MBL is scum.

[Glork]

you're going against this

SIXTY PERCENT CHANCE THAT I AM GUARANTEED INNOCENT

because you can't see any other way out of your current predicament.

If I was scum in a predicament I imagine I'd just vote Patrick considering, you know, he's the guy our confirmed innocent is voting for?

No. If you do that, we end up no-lynching (or Mgm changes and you die). If you kill Mgm, you're very likely dead. If you kill me, you already know that Mgm is susceptible to a vote-change based on night actions, and he would seriously question why he was left alive. I think that your only play is to try to stir up the muck, and that's exactly what you're doing here.

Your claim that I "probably wouldn't" try to prove my innocence as town is

complete and utter bullshit

.

Misrepresentation. I claim that you wouldn't try to

bully

me into changing my vote by calling me scummy for my uncertainty.

I am not trying to bully you into anything.
I am trying to show that, because you said you are ready to vote somebody that you think is MOST LIKELY CONFIRMED INNOCENT, you are

SCUM

. There's no bullying involved. You are scum, and I am trying to show it by pointing out that no protown player in their right mind would vote for somebody who they felt was AT LEAST SIXTY PERCENT LIKELY TO BE INNOCENT.

Honestly. I don't know how many more times I need to say that.

it was

STUPID

form me to do, but as scum, it would have been

INCOMPREHENSIBLE

. I'm sorry, sir, but you fail miserably.

WIFOM from the guy who bragged to Zindaras on Page 11 about how absurd Glork plays. I suppose I failed miserably by thinking you were scum for trying to lynch me on Page 2 of Space Monkeys?

To be honest, one of the biggest things that bothers me about Patrick is that he's seen you as protown all game. I can't fathom that.

I can... you know that our playstyles clash, but that does not mean that my playstyle clashes with other players. Patrick is savvy and intelligent enough to be able to

tell

the difference between protown Glork and scum Glork. There are certain things that I

only

have EVER done as protown, and I have done them in this game. Among what he mentioned were the lengthy and overdetailed stream-of-consciousness analysis of the entire game, and my "it's you or me, and one of us is going down" attitude.

The Space Monkeys situation is different in that I

knew

everybody else thought they were scum, and I found it significantly possible that somebody would take the gamble to hammer you straight away. It was worth laying the bait out there in that game, because there was a *HUGELY* significant mechanic-difference that I knew would affect the play of each and every protown player.

[Glork]

Also, @ you calling WIFOM on me. That coming from the same guy who said it was "difficult" to avoid using circular logic, "especially in endgame," when it clearly is not.


You have at least three times used WIFOM to deny evidence pointing to you.
1) Thesp's death, and whether it points to you or not.
2) Whether Glork was taking the "easy route" to victory.
3) Just now, with the incomprehensibility of my behavior as scum.

Interesting that you're okay with MGM using WIFOM to say "I don't believe MBL would have killed me," but you reject "I don't believe scum would tell Fritz they knew about him before killing him" based on... WIFOM.

Your entire case is constantly based on "I claim to think you're scummy, so I'm going to cram the evidence to fit what I want everyone to believe." Everything that fits with your conclusion is okay. Everything that doesn't is WIFOM.

[Glork]

Misrepresentation. I claim that you wouldn't try to bully me into changing my vote by calling me scummy for my uncertainty.

Also, claiming that I'm bullying you "by calling [you] scummy for [your] uncertainty" is crap. You've stated that you are ready to vote for me. That sounds pretty damned CERTAIN to me. You're CERTAIN that my behavior overrides the SIXTY PERCENT chance that I'm town. You're certain enough to state your willingness gamble on a less than forty percent chance that you're right.



If you're town, I'd like to play poker with you sometime. It seems you enjoy throwing all the chips in the pot when you know you're likely to lose.

[Glork]

His posts pointing to a possible Glork investigation are much less so. In the face of your flamingly scummy play this game, am I going to make my voting decision based on my uncertain read of one post by Fritzler? No way. Sure, the math adds up if I want to play the pure numbers. Approximating:

(.6 innocent investigation)+.4(.25 Patrick's scum) = .7 Glork's town
.3 Patrick's town

But I'd weight my certainty on those factors because I'm much more confident in my read of you over six months than I am in my read of one Fritzler post. In the end, numbers don't do the situation justice. Patrick reads less like Patrickscum in this game than you read like Glorkscum.

No, no, no, NO!

You stated that your certainty of Fritz investigating me was

IN SPITE OF MY SCUMMY PLAY

. Your 60% was

AFTER HAVING TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT SIX MONTHS OF READING ME

. Look at what you said:

Glork has seemed significantly more scummy this game, but there's probably a 60% chance he's been investigated.

I've been scummy, BUT (even then) you think I was investigated.
Logically speaking, you cannot feasably vote for me based on what you said.



Like I indicated before, you are perfectly free to rescind your earlier statement, but you've got to give me a pretty goddamned good explanation as to why you would, considering you had already taken my play into account when making that projection. Saying "your scumminess overrides it" without substantial further explanation is not good enough, because earlier "my scumminess" didn't override it at all.