Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Way to get our hopes up, Stoofs.

Glrok, Patrick, vote for Nighfall, please. I'm sure we can get someone to hammer.

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I know a way to half the number of replacements needed.

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Our decision just got easier, people.

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Mgm, please show Dutch consolidarity by voting for Battle Mage.

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Still here, still flabergasted by the lack of CES lynchitude.

And still not contributing.

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Battle Mage, for your information, the first mention of a roleblocker is post 2 under Clarifications. There's also a link in the first post.

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Oh, I definitely based my play around it. Absolutely. Every past I made relied on the assumption that there was a roleblocker in the game.

(It was a mostly theoretical discussion really. Of little importance.)

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Fine, Glork, I'll give you some content. I'll poke some (of the more obvious) holes in BM's analysis.

CES is reluctant to concede that CDB could be scum on Page 7.

Factually incorrect. I can't find anything on page 7 and I can't find anything in my first 40 posts.

Claims that it can be proven, when CES is experienced enough to realise that this is not necessarily the case.

Wrong. Her role could be proven and it was.

MGM notices that CES shows a strong reluctance to vote for Glork. Page 26.

He ignores my excellent rebuttal.

CES criticises those pushing the Thesp wagon-however Glorks name is suspiciously exempt from this criticism.

I don't have a clue where he got this from.

CES tries hard to dissuade Zindaras from voting MgM, then when questioned, backtracks.

Claiming to be 90% sure is not backtracking in my book.

Glork reacts violently, even offering to die today instead of CES.

Not true.

BM is actively lying and deceiving to paint me as scum (with Glrok as partner).

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I just noticed this.

Lots of communication between Glork and CES. Im not sure what that means, as I doubt those 2 as scum would be so openly like scumbuddies. Could suggest that Glork is protown.

He's already decided I'm scum 6 lines into his analysis. This is typical scum going after a target (as opposed to town looking for scum). I even make sense as a target(I'm probably the easiest lynch here(apart from BM), ceteris paribus.

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Mgm, if you read through Fritz's posts and if you know how Fritz played, Thesp is obviously someone he had a result on. There isn't any competing theory. He wouldn't have investigated anyone who had died Night 1 (spec or IH). We can't be 100% sure, of course, but the difference is negligible compared to the very much real chance of GFness.

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never contributed justification for his vote yesterday (but was more than happy to help the lynch along)

I pointed out several holes in his analysis, including an outright

falsehood

, all of which suggested he had decided to go after me as an evil scumbag. If that isn't justification, I don't know what is, scum.

Glrok, please tell me why following you is a bad play. Do you feel I should not trust my read on you or that I shouldn't trust your reads? Maybe it's not "proper" or whatever, but I'm trying to help win this game, maybe?

And how sure are you about Patrick, Glrok? Because if he's town, then MBL has to be Thesp's Goon.

I'm also going to take a moment and argue against a no-lynch at this point. We've already lost one useful contributor, CTD, and I don't think we need to lose another.

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Actually, CES, I'm leaning slightly towards you/MGM at this moment.

Assume for the purposes of that question that the scum group is Thesp + Patrick/MBL. You're helping me find the final goon.

Just because you're not trying to pin BM's mislynch on me does not mean that you're not likely to be scum.

Of course I'm not. I've already established that you're town.

Your backseat attitude has been noted, and we both know that you're a perfectly capable scumhunter. Call me patronizing, but a very strong part of me feels that you would know better than to sit around and just follow someone else's lead in a situation like yesterday, no matter who that person was.

Let's get one thing out of the way first: I was personally suspicious of BM/Nightfall. I do not deny any responsibility for that mislynch at all. Secondly, I have caught you scum even if noone's currently willing to go along with me. Thirdly, I've yet to have a correct read on MBL in any game and I always disagree with the majority of what he says and Patrick nearly always looks town. I am trying to help win the game and that means I'm going to use every information at my disposal, including your opinion on these two gentlemen.

Also, what reasons do you have against a possible MBL/MGM pairing at this point in time?

Mgm is town.

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Glrok, please respond to my final post. I know you're out there.

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I'm just waiting for Glrok to answer my question. It is of crucial importance to me.

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I was not justifying my behaviour on a whole, I was justifying that I was ignoring certain risks. And I wouldn't say I necessarily played badly day 1, as bandwagonning and creating pressure are important to get any game off the ground.

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It's not what about I learned, Glrok, but if you must know, it definitely helped me form my opinions on you and Mgm. And knowing that 2 people are town = pretty darn useful.

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It's not what about I learned, Glrok, but if you must know, it definitely helped me form my opinions on you and Mgm. And knowing that 2 people are town = pretty darn useful.

What posts/behaviors helped you determine that MGM and Glork were pro-town during D1?

All of them. Also, not during Day 1 itself.

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It's gut feelings, Glrok, as I have stated previously, that I'm basing these things on. I look at the totality of one's posting, not specific parts. I'm being vague because my reasons are vague. They're still correct though.

I also just said I did not come to these conclusions during Day 1 itself. I came to them during re-reads. And my opinions are based on all of a person's posts, so it's not a gradual process. Day 1 I was mostly busy bandwagonning. I'm not gonna lie about that. My thinking was more "Who has the most votes right now?" than anything else. You know perfectly well that this is not uncommon for me.

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:nothelpful:

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I mean, at least respond to my post!

Your perception of me seems to be wholly coloured by Space Monkey. I believe I thought I was bussing bird1111 for a significant part of Day 1("thought" because he wasn't actually my scum buddy). If you want to metagame, you can't just look at one game in which I was scum. You're always going to find common ground between my play then and my play now. I'm confident that if you look at the entirety of my play, your metagaming argument fails.

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It's more of a lack of actual analysis rather than an unwillingness to share, Glrok. If I had a nice concrete case on Thesp, I would've (obviously) shared it, but that's not the kind of player I am. Heck, I'm not sure why you're town. You are, though.

I'm not looking at just Space Monkey. I am looking at the fact that you have been generally useless throughout this entire game and that is a type of behavior which is indicative of scum, no matter who the player or what the game.

I thought we were talking about Day 1 here, dude. That's certainly the context of my remark.

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Thinking about what's going on today, Patrick and Thesp seem to be impossible to get lynched. Mgm and Glrok are town. That leaves MBL.

I can't see the town winning this any other way, so

Vote: MBL

.

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Thesp, you're the GF. I have made that abundantly clear.

Waves hi again btw. You know CES, if you are protown and you were only seriously considering a Thesp/Patrick pairing or a Thesp/MBL pairing, then your vote was reckless. You didn't even wait for Glork's opinion which you seemed to value so highly in helping you decide. Why the sudden lunge?

Originally I was just focussed on finding out who the goon was. I just realized that it didn't even matter, because, as I stated, you were impossible to lynch. I realized that if you were the goon, the town would never win. I had to go with the other option.

I wonder something else. If you consider those two pairings, why aren't you doing the obvious and vote to lynch Thesp, that would in your mind guarantee a dead scum while you could be 50% wrong the way you're voting now? I'm happy to see you on the wagon, but I'm not sure you did it for the right reasons.

Voting for Thesp today would pretty much be suicide. Also, it's not 50-50. And even if we did lynch Thesp today, we'd still have to make the decision tomorrow.

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The correct course of action today is

getting scum lynched

. Getting Thesp lynched is not realistic right now.

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Is Glrok willing to vote Thesp? No.
Is Patrick willing to vote Thesp? No.
Is MrBuddyLee willing to vote Thesp? No.
Is Thesp willing to vote Thesp? No.

That's why lynching Thesp is unrealistic at this time.

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Because I don't have a concrete case, Mgm, I have a read. I'm not an awesome scumhunter who finds scum, convinces the town and leads them to a victory.

Thesp, I'm not just trying to survive, although it may appear the way, I'm simply being

realistic

in my actions. A lot of people in my position would take a stand and go after you, Thesp, but I know that that approach is not going to win this town the game.

I believe you are scum because of gut Thesp. Glrok and Mgm are town. I gambled that Patrick wasn't scum because if he was, we were doomed anyhow. The lack of quicklynch has eliminated {Patrick, Thesp} as scum pair, so now I know you are scum with MBL.

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If that's a load of malarkey, then please show us a game in which I did give convincing reasons. I can point to Two-headed Mafia's endgame. I was absolutely certain about Djelibeybi but could not for the life of me convince Lowell to vote for him.

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Glrok, Thesp was on to him:

I did indeed think Fritzler was a cop.

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No.

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When and why did you decide that Fritz was town?

During that re-read. He looked town.

EBWODP: And why didn't you believe CDB's claim?

Simple statistics, my dear Glrok. Channel would make that claim as scum or as roleblocker. There were 3 scum left and an average of 0.333 Roleblocker.

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Anyhow, Glrok, if I were scum and I had found the cop, I wouldn't want to draw attention to that, would I? Silence would be a much smarter approach.

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Why even bother mentioning it at all, Glrok? I did not mention it often, no, but there was no reason for me to. Fritzler never came under any fire, he was never discussed. It would be strange if I had mentioned it often.

If you find a cop as scum, you shut up about it and kill the cop overnight.

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Eh. I hate to call WIFOM on this, but that's basically what it boils down to. Thesp admitted to suspecting that Fritz was the cop, I don't see you asserting that he's more likely to be pro-town because of it.MBL and Patrick both admitted to looking for the cop, and I proclaimed that I had thought Fritzler was the cop.

Thesp admitted to it after Fritz had died and after I had pointed out that it was fairly likely Thesp would've noticed. I made a comment previous to his death and I'm asserting that that comment makes me more likely to be pro-town. But you're using it as a scum tell, which I find ridiculous.

The two situations are fundamentally different and there is no inconsistency.

If you'd just said, "I found Fritz to be a likely cop, and that's why I decided that CDB's claim meant he was bogus" right from the start of all of this, I'd probably be less suspicious of you. Because before I even asked the "why was Fritz killed N3" question, I had read up on every player, and I felt that you had figured him out. So..... did you?

It would've been much easier to just state I was on to Fritz, but I don't lie as town. I did not have figured him out.

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I'm asserting

Not asserting.

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Fyi: you don't get to decide that.

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CES, do you actually believe this?

It's obviously hyperbole, but it's certainly one way of finding out his alignment.

CES, why didn't you wagon Mgm?

I try not to cause mislynches.

Gets attacked from all sides, defends with:

No. Not a defense, a tangent. My defense is and was that my comment was not meant to be serious, which should be fairly obvious.

CES, please go into detail about what Mgmscum looks like.

Different, mostly, somewhat nervous and less prone to make original suggestions.

CES, who was wagoning Thesp besides CDB?

Look at the VC's, dude. Mgm was with me, that much I remember, but I'm not sure who else. Adele?

CES, do you actually believe scum would EVER suicide-counterclaim to get pro-town CDB killed?

Well, no. That was a brain fart on my part.

Seems to assume he'll be around tomorrow. Possible scumslip. Town would want to be on the record in case they die overnight.

Scum tends to kill claimed cops over suspicious-looking people. For some reason.

Out of the blue, before CDB lynch:

I got that out of re-reading.

CES, what was so unconvincing to you about the claim?

Like I said earlier today, basic statistics. Both Channelscum and Channelblocker would make that claim. 3 scum left, 1/3rd of a Blocker => 90% of the time he's scum.

Four minutes is pretty speedy. Even Stallingchamp can't consistently switch alts in that timeframe...

I can read through all of Fritz's posts in 4 minutes. There wasn't a lot to read.

CES claimed to find Zindy townish on his own--why would he need to invoke Glork's opinion on a post to indict me? Smells like suckup.

Wrong. You were talking about how there was too little content from Zindie for Glrok to change his mind about him. You played Zindie's analysis post off as irrelevant while Glrok had mentioned it as distinctly pro-town. I wasn't "invoking Glrok's opinion", at all. I was giving an argument against you.

CES, is there anyone you wouldn't follow Glork onto?

Mgm, Glrok and CES.

Leaving aside the bizarro confirmation of Glork and Mgm, what if Thesp and Patrick had been the scumpair?

Then we were doomed. You should realize this, too.

Actually, much worse than odd, because we now know that at least one of CES/Mgm HAS to be scum. Any posts after #1690 that show either CES or Mgm favoring the other are evidence of deceit.

No, silly Lee, we obviously both think that you are scum, there's no special reason for either of us to suspect the other.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Mgm: Mgm and Glrok.

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I am not a non-voter, so that's my answer to your second question.

If I had to choose between you and Glrok, I'd probably go with you, as Thespscum does not imply Glroktown while Thespscum does imply Mgmtown, so my gut would have to be wrong on two counts rather than one. Glrok has also made some silly posts attacking me.

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He seems somewhat eager and post 1727, for example, is just plain bullshit. Attacking me is an sich not scummy.

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Actually, Thespscum means that Glork has to be town, and I have to be town, due to the lack of quicklynch.

True. In fact, disregard what I said. It's Thesp + MBL, so I don't see the point in picking one person I wouldn't lynch.

I think that your use of statistics is horribly flawed. The odds of CDB being a roleblocker are no more larger or smaller than the odds of any specific player having any specific role. It may be true that "CDB Roleblocker" was highly unlikely, but it is no more or less likely than, say, "Glork Vig."

And if you had claimed vig, I would've gone after you. The majority of the town is townies, Glrok. A power role claim does make one more likely to be scum. There's nothing wrong with my maths, dude.

Secondly, I think you're making a flawed assumption in that scums would necessarily claim Roleblocker. I could see RB, Cop, or Deputy, easily; and I could possibly see Vigilante (though I admit that I would have been rather skeptical of that one).

Vigilante is obviously a horrible claim. Cop has to give results. Most importantly, the Roleblocker is the only one that can explain surviving the Night. Scums might not claim RB 100% of the time, true, but even if they only claimed it 50% of the time(a very low estimate, I'd say), he'd still be scum 80% of the time.

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It appears there's more than simple statistics going on, because you're clearly not willing to lynch him based solely on the numbers.

That was an initial reaction. I hadn't gone through the numbers yet at that point.

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I think there's an argument to be made for either side. Asking questions is good, but this is info that might be used by scum. I consider it worth it at this time.

Of course, this stalemate is ridiculous. Just give arguments. That means both of you.

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Glrok, I do not have a legitimate case against MBL, silly rabbit. It's process of elimination that got me to my vote. Also, ever heard of gut? You're not playing well, Glrok. Please bring your A-game and put some thought into this game. I know you are capable.

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Mgm, I think I missed the last page. Anyhow, my gut is telling me that Thesp is scum. Like the pope, my gut is infallible. I trust it 100%.

Now on to the real stuff: MBL's quicklynch attempt.

Thesp posted just 2 minutes previous to MBL's vote. That's no coincidence. MBL must've been waiting for Thesp to come on. If Thesp had checked the thread, the game would've been over.

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This is the smoking gun, guys.

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Dammit.

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I have to assume MBL was just trying to confuse us then.

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Mafia Discussion.