Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[CrashTextDummie]

Howdy. Most of you probably know me. I'll read the game at my earliest convenience.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm durrently not at my own home, which is why I don't have time to read and analyse the whole game in one sitting. I've decided to do it in three batches of 20 pages over the next three days, and post updated suspicion lists as I go along.

First batch to follow sometimes later.

Unvote

for the time being.

[CrashTextDummie]

Shoot, I completely missed my self-imposed schedule. Well I'm home now (although very tired), I'll read the whole game in full tomorrow.

Sorry for the wait.

[CrashTextDummie]

Hi again. This is part 1 of my analysis trilogy.

Pages 1-20

Nightfall

- Scummy. He FoSed AndrewS

twice

in his first 4 posts, yet placed his vote on Ether (where it remained for the rest of the day). All throughout D1, I felt like he was trying to push the AndrewS wagon along without actually being on it. This is particularly noteworthy since his sole reason for voting Ether was that he felt she was "snuggling up with an innocent", that innocent being AndrewS. I found him fairly useless during the deadline period, posting recaps that didn't amount to more than fluff. It's a shame he didn't get his Ether PbPA in before AndrewS was hammered, because I don't think he could have justified voting her over AndrewS after the accusatory tone he used in his AndrewS PbPA. His first post of D2 didn't ring true to me: If he thought that AndrewS's play was really scummy and that he deserved to be lynched, he should have voted him, and not Ether on the premis that AndrewS is innocent.

Cogito Ergo Sum

- Early vibes are pro-town, and this didn't change much over the first 20 pages. This is purely based on the meta-game I have on him, but considering the degree of scuminess of several other people, he didn't bother me.

Glork

- Mixed reading. The whole "voting no lynch for a laugh" thing was a bit too cheeky for my taste. Unlike his excessive vote-hopping (which can be a legitimate means of getting reactions and is a null tell for him), it didn't serve any apparent purpose other than to fuel an argument I consider pointless (i.e. much of the case against AndrewS). I didn't care much for the SV push. I liked his little exchange with Thesp starting in Post 330, which sounds like a legitimate attempt to get a read on Thesp. Vibes were getting better at the beginning of D2. I'm undecided on him at this point.

Mgm

- Overall a fairly pro-town read, but with some spots. He felt like one of the more consistent players as far as his suspicions go, and I liked his play under deadline. I'm not sure what to make of his insistence to vote Glork over an obvious joke, but found his explanation (that he takes things at face value unless clearly marked as a joke) sufficient. Really didn't like his (what I consider to be strong) defense of Nightfall, though. Not one of the top contenders at this point.

MrBuddyLee

- Played a very small role on D1. His vote on Patrick in Post 303 seems off to me, especially in the context of MBL's 2 big analysis posts (3 and 13 in isolation). Not impressed by his suspicions. Scummier than most.

Patrick

- Consistent town read. My notes on him stop fairly soon, because I didn't feel like writing down "sounds pro-town" over and over again.

Thesp

- Very single-minded in his approach to hunting scum, as I've come to expect from him. Linked known scumbag CDB to known townbag AndrewS on several occasions, which is often a scum tactic. Suggested CDB vig both before and after spectrumvoid claimed, which I'll count as a point in his favor (although I'm not dismissing the possibility of a gambit). Not impressed by his suspects. Scum candidate.

I also took some notes on CDB, but got nothing worth posting at this point.

I'll post in my other games and then I'll do the next batch.

[CrashTextDummie]

I've read another 20 pages. They were juicy.

Pages 21-40

I'll actually start with

ChannelDelibird

this time - Post 535, and his subsequent argument with Thesp indicates to me that he's not scum with him. I can't rule out from reading Thesp's posts alone that he is bussing CDB, but the latter sounds to me like he's talking to a townie (especially in 535).
I also don't think he's scum with Patrick: His defense of him in Post 685 doesn't sound like that of a scumbuddy. Those are usually more subtle/less lazy than the "I don't see anything wrong with it/him/his play" variety presented here.

Nightfall

- I found him to be useless

again

during the deadline period at the end of D2. I don't think his vote on Ether was substanciated enough, and he pretty much ingored every other relevant part of the ongoing discussion. Post 888 sounds phoney. Post 990 rings alarm bells.

Cogito Ergo Sum

- I'm less certain of him now. This has mainly to do with his behavior towards Thesp: At some point, his push for him gradually changed from simple bandwagoning to a conscious push to get him lynched. I disagree with this and his reasoning was not sufficient (he mentioned "Gut + Metagame" at some point, which doesn't cut it considering the amount of matieral to work with).

Glork

- leaning towards town at this point. His move against CDB felt like it came from legitimate detective work, I think he would have played it differently if he were bussing. I had a slight suspicion that he could be linking CDB to various townies on more than one occasion, but it's not a big concern. A defitine improvement over D1 (and the rest of the first 20 pages).

Mgm

- Something that struck me as curious is his continued piggyback riding off of Nightfall's posts. He bases a FoS on Fritz on a Nightfall post in 602 (he did it earlier in 377, and to a lesser extent in 419). Quite frankly, I don't know what to make of this, but suffice to say I find it difficult to understand his trust in Nightfall. He had a number of interactions with CDB, and they're a mixed bag, although Post 857 sounds genuine enough. Overall, I find his methods and motivations hardest to follow out of all the players, but considering the innocent investigation (among some other things) I'm willing to pass this off as a playstyle incompatibility at this point.

MrBuddyLee

- My impression hasn't improved. He's the standout defender of CDB to me, sometimes subtly (Post 522), sometimes openly (Post 542, 966). Although he was significantly more active in this part of the game (compared to the first 20 pages), I don't think he actually contributed all that much to hunting scum. Still not impressed with his suspicions and votes (Note: his jump onto the CDB wagon happened on page 40 and I haven't read any further yet, which is why I didn't take it into consideration for this analysis). Wouldn't surprise me as CDBs partner.

Patrick

- some dents in the facade, but nothing serious. Defended CDB on a number of occasions (565, 651). He came under some pressure in this part of the game, and reacted quite emotionally, which strikes he as a pro-town reaction for him (similar to the patented Jelly-Rage). Not hammering Thesp on D2 does as well. Still likely pro-town.

Thesp

- Very consistent in his hunt for CDB. Probably the player who's thoughts jived most with my own. The case upon which he was wagoned was rather week to me, and the fact that it didn't go through is more of an indication that he's town in my mind. My opinion may be skewered by my read of CDB's post, but I pretty much don't consider him a scum candidate anymore.

Part 3 to follow soon.

[CrashTextDummie]

Finished my read. The game got a lot more thick during the last 20 pages, which resulted in me basing my analysis more on general feel then particular posts:

Pages 41-63

Only one post of note from

ChannelDelibird

:

I don't see Mgmscum. I am still confident of Thespscum. Best guess for buddies are Ether and CES/Fritzler.

Which isn't worth much. Experience tells me that one of his buddies is probably in this list, but I'm not willing to venture down this path of WIFOM at this point.

Nightfall

- I actually started to waver a bit when it comes to him. Post 1111 sounds like legitimate confusion to me. I may be prejudiced when it comes to this particular tell for Nightfall, because I've wrongfully mistaken this kind of confusion as a scumtell for him before when he was actually town, though. In any case, it wasn't enough to sway me, and his defeatist attitude and general unwillingness to help the town on D4 is not the only reason.

At the start I really thought that Andrew was scummy, and when he turned up town I was truely surprised and I became a little doubtful of my abilities.

Why I am pro Ether lynch is because of a few things. At the very start of the game Ether seemed to defend Andrew to the point that it looked almost as if she "knew" he would turn out to be town.

This still doesn't ring true to me. It feels like he was playing both sides. I can't comprehend a townie having this mindset.

This, combined with his link to CDB and other points brought forward, makes it very likely in my mind that he is scum. I support his lynch.

Cogito Ergo Sum

- He got very talkative (borderline defensive) on D4 when under pressure, which is more of a scum-tell for him as far as I'm concerned. In my experience, he tends to care a lot less when he's vanilla. His reaction to CDB's fake claim was the one I liked the least. Reaction to Fritz's nightkill sounds phoney. Didn't like his behavior on D3 in general (particuarly his insistence to vote Thesp), really.

I'd have to do some more reading to figure out if he could be scum with Nightfall, but independently, I wouldn't mind him being lynched either.

Glork

- I've pretty much ruled him out as scum. I still find it highly unlikely that he was busing CDB. Sounded very genuine in his exchange with MBL. Voting behavior and scum hunting approach seems internally consistent to me. I'd lynch half the town before even considering him.

Mgm

- Continues to make no sense to me at all. His views and opinions seem to be diametrically opposed to those of most of the town (and certainly to mine), which became especially apparent during the CDB lynch. If he's scum, he's playing an incredibly bold game. The wildcard.

MrBuddyLee

- Probably scum. His behavior on the CDB wagon (hinting at a case, yet challenging others to actually make it) felt highly manipulative to me, not to mention like an effective way of bussing. There's a lot of spin to some of his posts, in the sense that he seems to bend his interpretations of the mafia's behavior to suit his purposes (Post 1404 is a good example, but he started doing it a lot earlier in posts I'm too lazy to dig up at this point). His case against Glork didn't convince me (MBL-scum deliberately challenging Glork wouldn't surprise me at all, by the way, considering their past history).

If Nightfall isn't lynched today, it has to be him.

Patrick

- I don't have much to say about him. It's pretty clear that he's town.

Thesp

- The driving force behind the CDB lynch in my mind. I still haven't completely ruled out the chance that he was busing, but it's a very small chance. I also find myself in agreement with his suspicions today. Probably pro-town.

That's it. If there are any questions, I'll be happy to answer them.

Are we in any particular hurry to lynch Battle Mage? Cause if we're not, I'd rather poke at MBL for a start.

Vote: MBL

[CrashTextDummie]

CES, CTD, any further comment on BM's posts? CES, why so defensive in your analysis? CTD, why'd you ignore BM's comments entirely?

Because it's nigh impossible for me to see them as anything but scum trying to weasel out of being lynched (post 1564 stands out in particular).

I agree that he is giving us valuable information, but I don't think it's worth analysing in detail until we know his alignment.

I'll drop the hammer sometimes later if no one else is willing to.

[CrashTextDummie]

Oh my god.

Watching the last few days of this game felt like watching a Bugs Bunny cartoon, with Mgm playing the role of Elmer Fudd, hopelessly falling for it every time MBL held up a "Duck Season" sign or put on unconvincing drag. That's what it felt like, anyway, and words cannot express how happy I am that I don't have to suggest the introduction of the "Elmer Fudd Award" for Mgm, and in this moment of euphoria might even suggest him for "Cool Person of this Game Award" despite his rather weak play for most of the game.

That said, I feel that despite only having 4 relevant posts in this game, this was probably my best scumhunting effort ever, correctly reading all but one player, and I am incredibly happy that the game wasn't lost on the silly assumption that my NK was of no importance. Because to me, it was glaringly obvious as soon as I read that morning scene, that I must have done

something

right in my analysis.

Awesome game, everyone.

[CrashTextDummie]

As to 1, the Mafia conducted their nighttalk on a chat forum, which could be linked to, but I won't do that without the Mafia's permission.

I, for one, would be interested in seeing that.